Local-level mortality surveillance in resource-limited settings: a case study of Cape Town highlights disparities in health

Preparing healthcare facilities in sub-Saharan Africa for future outbreaks: insights from a multi-country digital self-assessment of COVID-19 preparedness

BACKGROUND

Despite previous experience with epidemics, African healthcare systems were inadequately prepared and substantially impacted by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Limited information about the level of COVID-19 preparedness of healthcare facilities in Africa hampers policy decision-making to fight future outbreaks in the region, while maintaining essential healthcare services running.

METHODS

Between May-November 2020, we performed a survey study with SafeCare4Covid - a free digital self-assessment application - to evaluate the COVID-19 preparedness of healthcare facilities in Africa following World Health Organization guidelines. The tool assessed (i) COVID-19-related capabilities with 31 questions; and (ii) availability of essential medical supplies with a 23-supplies checklist. Tailored quality improvement plans were provided after assessments. Information about facilities' location, type, and ownership was also collected.

RESULTS

Four hundred seventy-one facilities in 11 African countries completed the capability assessment; 412 also completed the supplies checklist. The average capability score on a scale of 0-100 (n=471) was 58.0 (interquartile range 40.0-76.0), and the average supplies score (n=412) was 61.6 (39.0-83.0). Both scores were significantly lower in rural (capability score, mean 53.6 [95%CI:50.3-57.0]/supplies score, 59.1 [55.5-62.8]) versus urban facilities (capability score, 65.2 [61.7-68.7]/supplies score, 70.7 [67.2-74.1]) (P<0.0001 for both comparisons). Likewise, lower scores were found for public versus private clinics, and for primary healthcare centres versus hospitals. Guidelines for triage and isolation, clinical management of COVID-19, staff mental support, and contact tracing forms were largely missing. Handwashing stations were partially equipped in 33% of facilities. The most missing medical supply was COVID-19 specimen collection material (71%), while 43% of facilities did not have N95/FFP2 respirators and 19% lacked medical masks.

CONCLUSIONS

A large proportion of public and private African facilities providing basic healthcare in rural areas, lacked fundamental COVID-19-related capabilities and life-saving personal protective equipment. Decentralization of epidemic preparedness efforts in these settings is warranted to protect healthcare workers and patients alike in future epidemics. Digital tools are of great value to timely measure and improve epidemic preparedness of healthcare facilities, inform decision-making, create a more stakeholder-broad approach and increase health-system resilience for future disease outbreaks.

South Africa's male homicide epidemic hiding in plain sight: Exploring sex differences and patterns in homicide risk in a retrospective descriptive study of postmortem investigations

South Africa has an overall homicide rate six times the global average. Males are predominantly the victims and perpetrators, but little is known about the male victims. For the country's first ever study on male homicide we compared 2017 male and female victim profiles for selected covariates, against global average and previous estimates for 2009. We conducted a retrospective descriptive study of routine data collected through postmortem investigations, calculating age-standardised mortality rates for manner of death by age, sex and province and male-to-female incidence rate ratios with 95% confidence intervals. We then used generalised linear models and linear regression models to assess the association between sex and victim characteristics including age and mechanism of injury (guns, sharp and blunt force) within and between years. 87% of 19,477 homicides in 2017 were males, equating to seven male deaths for every female, with sharp force and firearm discharge being the most common cause of death. Rates were higher among males than females at all ages, and up to eight times higher for the age group 15-44 years. Provincial rates varied overall and by sex, with the highest comparative risk for men vs. women in the Western Cape Province (11.4 males for every 1 female). Male homicides peaked during December and were highest during weekends, underscoring the prominent role of alcohol as a risk factor. There is a massive, disproportionate and enduring homicide risk among South African men which highlights their relative neglect in the country's prevention and policy responses. Only through challenging the normative perception of male invulnerability do we begin to address the enormous burden of violence impacting men. There is an urgent need to address the insidious effect of such societal norms alongside implementing structural interventions to overcome the root causes of poverty, inequality and better control alcohol and firearms.

The clinical and epidemiological characteristics of a series of patients living with HIV admitted for COVID-19 in a district hospital

BACKGROUND

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic continues to evolve. Globally, COVID-19 continues to strain even the most resilient healthcare systems, with Omicron being the latest variant. We made a thorough search for literature describing the effects of the COVID-19 in a high human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/tuberculosis (TB) burden district-level hospital setting. We found scanty literature.

METHODS

A retrospective observational study was conducted at Khayelitsha District Hospital in Cape Town, South Africa (SA) over the period March 2020-December 2021. We included confirmed COVID-19 cases with HIV infection aged from 18 years and above. Analysis was performed to identify predictors of mortality or hospital discharge among people living with HIV (PLWH). Predictors investigated include CD4 count, antiretroviral therapy (ART), TB, non-communicable diseases, haematological, and biochemical parameters.

FINDINGS

This cohort of PLWH with SARS-CoV-2 infection had a median (IQR) age of 46 (37-54) years, male sex distribution of 29.1%, and a median (IQR) CD4 count of 267 (141-457) cells/mm3. Of 255 patients, 195 (76%) patients were discharged, 60 (24%) patients died. One hundred and sixty-nine patients (88%) were on ART with 73(28%) patients having acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). After multivariable analysis, smoking (risk ratio [RR]: 2.86 (1.75-4.69)), neutrophilia [RR]: 1.024 (1.01-1.03), and glycated haemoglobin A1 (HbA1c) [RR]: 1.01 (1.007-1.01) were associated with mortality.

CONCLUSION

The district hospital had a high COVID-19 mortality rate among PLWH. Easy-to-access biomarkers such as CRP, neutrophilia, and HbA1c may play a significant role in informing clinical management to prevent high mortality due to COVID-19 in PLWH at the district-level hospitals.

South Africa's male homicide epidemic hiding in plain sight: exploring sex differences and patterns in homicide risk in a retrospective descriptive study of postmortem investigations

Background

South Africa has homicide rates six times the global average, predominantly among men, but little is known about male victims. As part of the country's first ever study of male homicide we compared 2017 male and female victim profiles for selected covariates, against global averages and previous estimates for 2009.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective descriptive study of routine data collected through postmortem investigations, calculating age-standardised mortality rates for manner of death by age, sex and province and male-to-female incidence rate ratios with 95% confidence intervals. We then used generalised linear models and linear regression models to assess the association between sex and victim characteristics including age and mechanism of injury (guns, stabs and blunt force) within and between years.

Findings

87% of 19,477 homicides in 2017 were males, equating to seven male deaths for every female, with sharp force and firearm discharge the most common external causes. Rates were higher among males than females at all ages, and up to eight times higher among males aged 15-44 years. Provincial rates varied overall and by sex, with the highest comparative risk for men vs. women in the Western Cape Province (11.4 males for every 1 female). Male homicides peaked during December and were highest on weekends, underscoring the prominent role of alcohol as a risk factor. Significantly more males tested positive for alcohol than females.

Interpretation

The massive, disproportionate and enduring homicide risk borne by adult South African men highlights the negligible prevention response. Only through challenging the normative perception of male invulnerability can we begin to address the enormous burden of violence impacting men. There is an urgent need to address the insidious effect of such societal norms alongside implementing structural interventions to overcome the root causes of poverty and inequality and better control alcohol and firearms.

Funding

South African Medical Research Council and Ford Foundation.

Embodiment, agency, unmet need: Young women's experiences in the use and non-use of contraception in Khayelitsha, South Africa

Globally, high rates of unintended pregnancy occur despite widespread distribution of modern contraceptive methods, reflecting the complexity of individual contraceptive use. The concept of unmet need provides a framework for addressing the gap between women's desire to prevent pregnancy and the ability of health services to meet women's contraceptive needs. Through in-depth interviews in Khayelitsha, South Africa, we examine 14 young women's experiences with contraception, interrogating how and why reproductive intentions and outcomes often differ markedly. Three main themes were identified and explored. First, unintended pregnancies were common in our sample, despite high knowledge about contraceptive options and availability of multiple methods. Second, women's contraceptive preferences are strongly shaped by concerns with side effects and other embodied experiences, leading to pivotal moments of method-switching or cessation of contraceptive use. Third, using contraception provides participants with the potential for purposeful and self-directed action. These enactments of agency though, occur within intimate and familial relationships, where gendered expectations of the participants' choices ultimately shape both method preference and use. These findings demonstrate the need for an understanding of women's lives and narratives as the basis for understanding complex health behaviours such as contraceptive use.

COVID-19 and all-cause mortality in South Africa – the hidden deaths in the first four waves

Accurate statistics are essential for policy guidance and decisions. However, the reported number of cases and COVID-19 deaths are known to be biased due to under-ascertainment of SARS-CoV-2 and incomplete reporting of deaths. Making use of death data from the National Population Register has made it possible to track in near-real time the number of excess deaths experienced in South Africa. These data reveal considerable provincial differences in the impact of COVID-19, likely associated with differences in population age structure and density, patterns of social mixing, and differences in the prevalence of known comorbidities such as diabetes, hypertension, and obesity. As the waves unfolded, levels of natural immunity together with vaccination began to reduce levels of mortality. Mortality rates during the second (Beta) wave were much higher than mortality in the third (Delta) wave, which were higher than in either the first or the fourth (Omicron) waves. However, the cumulative death toll during the second (Beta) wave was of a similar order of magnitude as that during the third (Delta) wave due to the longer duration of the Delta wave. Near-real time monitoring of all-cause deaths should be refined to provide more granular level information to enable district-level policy support. In the meanwhile, there is an urgent need to re-engineer the civil registration and vital statistics system to enable more timely access to cause of death information for public health actions.

Evaluation of the Performance of OraQuick Rapid HIV-1/2 Test Among Decedents in Kisumu, Kenya

BACKGROUND

Estimating cause-related mortality among the dead is not common, yet for clinical and public health purposes, a lot can be learnt from the dead. HIV/AIDS accounted for the third most frequent cause of deaths in Kenya; 39.7 deaths per 100,000 population in 2019. OraQuick Rapid HIV-1/2 has previously been validated on oral fluid and implemented as a screening assay for HIV self-testing in Kenya among living subjects. We assessed the feasibility and diagnostic accuracy of OraQuick Rapid HIV-1/2 for HIV screening among decedents.

METHODS

Trained morticians collected oral fluid from 132 preembalmed and postembalmed decedents aged >18 months at Jaramogi Oginga Odinga Teaching and Referral Hospital mortuary in western Kenya and tested for HIV using OraQuick Rapid HIV-1/2. Test results were compared with those obtained using the national HIV Testing Services algorithm on matched preembalming whole blood specimens as a gold standard (Determine HIV and First Response HIV 1-2-O). We calculated positive predictive values, negative predictive values, area under the curve, and sensitivity and specificity of OraQuick Rapid HIV-1/2 compared with the national HTS algorithm.

RESULTS

OraQuick Rapid HIV-1/2 had similar sensitivity of 92.6% [95% confidence interval (CI): 75.7 to 99.1] on preembalmed and postembalmed samples compared with the gold standard. Specificity was 97.1% (95% CI: 91.9 to 99.4) and 95.2% (95% CI: 89.2 to 98.4) preembalming and postembalming, respectively. Preembalming and postembalming positive predictive value was 89.3% (95% CI: 71.8 to 97.7) and 83.3% (95% CI: 65.3 to 94.4), respectively. The area under the curve preembalming and postembalming was 94.9% (95% CI: 89.6 to 100) and 93.9% (95% CI: 88.5 to 99.4), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The study showed a relatively high-performance sensitivity and specificity of OraQuick Rapid HIV-1/2 test among decedents, similar to those observed among living subjects. OraQuick Rapid HIV-1/2 presents a convenient and less invasive screening test for surveillance of HIV among decedents within a mortuary setting.

Composition of the Health Inequality Index analyzed from the inequalities in mortality and socioeconomic conditions in a Brazilian state capital

The issue of social inequalities is a subject of recurrent studies and remains relevant due to the growing trend of these inequalities over the years. This study proposes the creation of the Health Inequality Index (HII) composed of health indicators - Mean life span and Mean Potential Years of Life Lost (PYLL) - and socioeconomic indicators of income, schooling, and population living in poverty in the city of Natal - the State Capital of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. Therefore, a probabilistic linkage was made between mortality and socioeconomic databases in order to capture the census tracts of households with death records from 2007 to 2013. The authors used the Principal Component Factor Analysis to calculate the index. The Health Inequality Index showed areas with worse socioeconomic and health conditions located in the suburban areas of the city, with differences between and within the districts. The difference in the mean life span between the districts of Natal arrives at 25 years, and the worst district has mortality rates comparable to poor African countries. Public policymakers can use the index to prioritize actions aimed at reducing or eliminating health inequalities.

Urban upgrading and levels of interpersonal violence in Cape Town, South Africa: The violence prevention through urban upgrading programme

Violence Prevention through Urban Upgrading applies second generation crime prevention through environmental design, which includes built environment interventions alongside social programmes and community participation initiatives in Khayelitsha, one of South Africa's poorest and most violent suburbs. We conducted a retrospective population-based study using survey data from 3625 geo-located households collected between 2013 and 2015 and mapped alcohol outlets to assess the association between the intervention and reported experience of violence. The analysis used generalised linear models to estimate and compare selfreported experience of violence adjusting for known confounders, which included area and household deprivation as well as alcohol outlet density. Living in close proximity to the upgraded urban infrastructure was associated with a 34% reduced exposure to interpersonal violence after adjusting for confounders. This association was consistent across age and gender. Access to additional social programmes alongside the urban upgrading intervention was not associated with further reduction in risk. The association between urban-upgrading and reduced exposure to interpersonal violence supports its inclusion among interventions in national and local crime prevention policies to address social and structural environments.

Understanding the rise of cardiometabolic diseases in low- and middle-income countries

Increases in the prevalence of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), particularly cardiometabolic diseases such as cardiovascular disease, stroke and diabetes, and their major risk factors have not been uniform across settings: for example, cardiovascular disease mortality has declined over recent decades in high-income countries but increased in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The factors contributing to this rise are varied and are influenced by environmental, social, political and commercial determinants of health, among other factors. This Review focuses on understanding the rise of cardiometabolic diseases in LMICs, with particular emphasis on obesity and its drivers, together with broader environmental and macro determinants of health, as well as LMIC-based responses to counteract cardiometabolic diseases.

Evaluation of an HIV-Related Mortuary Surveillance System - Nairobi, Kenya, Two Sites, 2015

PROBLEM/CONDITION

Use of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-mortality surveillance data can help public health officials monitor, evaluate, and improve HIV treatment programs. Many high-income countries have high-coverage civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems linked to case-based HIV surveillance on which to base HIV mortality estimates. However, in the absence of comprehensive CRVS systems in low- and medium-income countries, such as Kenya, mortuary surveillance can be used to understand the occurrence of HIV infection among cadavers. In 2015, a pilot HIV-related mortuary surveillance system was implemented in the two largest mortuaries in Nairobi, Kenya. CDC conducted an evaluation to assess performance attributes and identify strengths and weaknesses of the surveillance system pilot.

PERIOD COVERED

Data collection: January 29-March 3, 2015; evaluation: November 2015.

DESCRIPTION OF THE SYSTEM

The surveillance system objectives were to determine HIV positivity among cadavers at two mortuary sites in Nairobi, Kenya, and to determine annual cause-specific and HIV-specific mortality rates among the cadavers. Cadavers of persons aged ≥15 years at death admitted to either mortuary during a 33-day period were included. Demographic information and place and time of death were entered into a surveillance register. Cardiac blood was collected using transthoracic aspiration, and blood specimens were tested for HIV in a central laboratory. Causes of death were abstracted from mortuary and hospital records. Of the 807 cadavers brought to the mortuaries, 610 (75.6%) had an HIV test result available. The overall unadjusted HIV-positivity rate was 19.5% (119/610), which differed significantly by sex (14.6% among men versus 29.5% among women).

EVALUATION

The evaluation was conducted using CDC guidelines for evaluating public health surveillance systems. The attributes of simplicity, flexibility, data quality (completeness and validity), acceptability, sensitivity, predictive value positive, representativeness, timeliness, and stability were examined. The evaluation steps included review of the surveillance system documents, in-depth interviews with 20 key informants (surveillance system staff, including mortuary and laboratory staff, and stakeholders involved in funding or implementation), and review of the surveillance database.

RESULTS AND INTERPRETATION

Implementation of the pilot mortuary surveillance system was complex because of extensive paperwork and the need to collect and process specimens outside of business hours. However, the flexibility of the system accommodated multiple changes during implementation, including changes in specimen collection techniques and data collection tools. Acceptability was initially low among the mortuary staff but increased after concerns regarding workload were resolved. Timeliness of specimen collection could not be measured because time of death was rarely documented. Completeness of data available from the system was generally high except for cause of death (46.5%). Although the two largest mortuaries in Nairobi were included, the surveillance system might not be representative of the Nairobi population. One of the mortuaries was affiliated with the national referral hospital and included cadavers of admitted patients, some deaths might have occurred outside Nairobi, and data were collected for only 1 month.

PUBLIC HEALTH ACTIONS

Mortuary surveillance can provide data on HIV positivity among cadavers and HIV-related mortality, which are not available from other sources in most sub-Saharan African countries. Availability of these mortality data will help describe a country's progress toward achieving epidemic control and achieving Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS 95-95-95 targets. To understand HIV mortality in high-prevalence regions, the mortuary surveillance system is being replicated in Western Kenya. Although a low-cost system, its sustainability depends on external funding because mortuary surveillance is not yet incorporated into the national AIDS strategic framework in Kenya.

Evaluation of an HIV-Related Mortuary Surveillance System - Nairobi, Kenya, Two Sites, 2015

Problem/Condition

Use of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-mortality surveillance data can help public health officials monitor, evaluate, and improve HIV treatment programs. Many high-income countries have high-coverage civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems linked to case-based HIV surveillance on which to base HIV mortality estimates. However, in the absence of comprehensive CRVS systems in low- and medium-income countries, such as Kenya, mortuary surveillance can be used to understand the occurrence of HIV infection among cadavers. In 2015, a pilot HIV-related mortuary surveillance system was implemented in the two largest mortuaries in Nairobi, Kenya. CDC conducted an evaluation to assess performance attributes and identify strengths and weaknesses of the surveillance system pilot.

Period Covered

Data collection: January 29–March 3, 2015; evaluation: November 2015.

Description of the System

The surveillance system objectives were to determine HIV positivity among cadavers at two mortuary sites in Nairobi, Kenya, and to determine annual cause-specific and HIV-specific mortality rates among the cadavers. Cadavers of persons aged ≥15 years at death admitted to either mortuary during a 33-day period were included. Demographic information and place and time of death were entered into a surveillance register. Cardiac blood was collected using transthoracic aspiration, and blood specimens were tested for HIV in a central laboratory. Causes of death were abstracted from mortuary and hospital records. Of the 807 cadavers brought to the mortuaries, 610 (75.6%) had an HIV test result available. The overall unadjusted HIV-positivity rate was 19.5% (119/610), which differed significantly by sex (14.6% among men versus 29.5% among women).

Evaluation

The evaluation was conducted using CDC guidelines for evaluating public health surveillance systems. The attributes of simplicity, flexibility, data quality (completeness and validity), acceptability, sensitivity, predictive value positive, representativeness, timeliness, and stability were examined. The evaluation steps included review of the surveillance system documents, in-depth interviews with 20 key informants (surveillance system staff, including mortuary and laboratory staff, and stakeholders involved in funding or implementation), and review of the surveillance database.

Results and Interpretation

Implementation of the pilot mortuary surveillance system was complex because of extensive paperwork and the need to collect and process specimens outside of business hours. However, the flexibility of the system accommodated multiple changes during implementation, including changes in specimen collection techniques and data collection tools. Acceptability was initially low among the mortuary staff but increased after concerns regarding workload were resolved. Timeliness of specimen collection could not be measured because time of death was rarely documented. Completeness of data available from the system was generally high except for cause of death (46.5%). Although the two largest mortuaries in Nairobi were included, the surveillance system might not be representative of the Nairobi population. One of the mortuaries was affiliated with the national referral hospital and included cadavers of admitted patients, some deaths might have occurred outside Nairobi, and data were collected for only 1 month.

Public Health Actions

Mortuary surveillance can provide data on HIV positivity among cadavers and HIV-related mortality, which are not available from other sources in most sub-Saharan African countries. Availability of these mortality data will help describe a country’s progress toward achieving epidemic control and achieving Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS 95-95-95 targets. To understand HIV mortality in high-prevalence regions, the mortuary surveillance system is being replicated in Western Kenya. Although a low-cost system, its sustainability depends on external funding because mortuary surveillance is not yet incorporated into the national AIDS strategic framework in Kenya.

Jordan Field Epidemiology Training Program: Critical Role in National and Regional Capacity Building

Field Epidemiology Training Programs (FETPs) are 2-year training programs in applied epidemiology, established with the purpose of increasing a country's capacity within the public health workforce to detect and respond to health threats and develop internal expertise in field epidemiology. The Jordan Ministry of Health, in partnership with the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, started the Jordan FETP (J-FETP) in 1998. Since then, it has achieved a high standard of success and has been established as a model for FETPs in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. Here we describe the J-FETP, its role in building the epidemiologic capacity of Jordan's public health workforce, and its activities and achievements, which have grown the program to be self-sustaining within the Jordan Ministry of Health. Since its inception, the program's residents and graduates have assisted the country to improve its surveillance systems, including revising the mortality surveillance policy, implementing the use of electronic data reporting, investigating outbreaks at national and regional levels, contributing to noncommunicable disease research and surveillance, and responding to regional emergencies and disasters. J-FETP's structure and systems of support from the Jordan Ministry of Health and local, regional, and international partners have contributed to the success and sustainability of the J-FETP. The J-FETP has contributed significantly to improvements in surveillance systems, control of infectious diseases, outbreak investigations, and availability of reliable morbidity and mortality data in Jordan. Moreover, the program has supported public health and epidemiology in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. Best practices of the J-FETP can be applied to FETPs throughout the world.

Socioeconomic differences in mortality in the antiretroviral therapy era in Agincourt, rural South Africa, 2001-13: a population surveillance analysis

BACKGROUND

Understanding the effects of socioeconomic disparities in health outcomes is important to implement specific preventive actions. We assessed socioeconomic disparities in mortality indicators in a rural South African population over the period 2001-13.

METHODS

We used data from 21 villages of the Agincourt Health and socio-Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS). We calculated the probabilities of death from birth to age 5 years and from age 15 to 60 years, life expectancy at birth, and cause-specific and age-specific mortality by sex (not in children <5 years), time period, and socioeconomic status (household wealth) quintile for HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis, other communicable diseases (excluding HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis) and maternal, perinatal, and nutritional causes, non-communicable diseases, and injury. We also quantified differences with relative risk ratios and relative and slope indices of inequality.

FINDINGS

Between 2001 and 2013, 10 414 deaths were registered over 1 058 538 person-years of follow-up, meaning the overall crude mortality was 9·8 deaths per 1000 person-years. We found significant socioecomonic status gradients for mortality and life expectancy at birth, with outcomes improving with increasing socioeconomic status. An inverse relation was seen for HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis mortality and socioeconomic status that persisted from 2001 to 2013. Deaths from non-communicable diseases increased over time in both sexes, and injury was an important cause of death in men and boys. Neither of these causes of death, however, showed consistent significant associations with household socioeconomic status.

INTERPRETATION

The poorest people in the population continue to bear a high burden of HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis mortality, despite free antiretroviral therapy being made available from public health facilities. Associations between socioeconomic status and increasing burden of mortality from non-communicable diseases is likely to become prominent. Integrated strategies are needed to improve access to and uptake of HIV testing, care, and treatment, and management of non-communicable diseases in the poorest populations.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, South African Medical Research Council, and University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa.

Progression of the epidemiological transition in a rural South African setting: findings from population surveillance in Agincourt, 1993-2013

Background

Virtually all low- and middle-income countries are undergoing an epidemiological transition whose progression is more varied than experienced in high-income countries. Observed changes in mortality and disease patterns reveal that the transition in most low- and middle-income countries is characterized by reversals, partial changes and the simultaneous occurrence of different types of diseases of varying magnitude. Localized characterization of this shifting burden, frequently lacking, is essential to guide decentralised health and social systems on the effective targeting of limited resources. Based on a rigorous compilation of mortality data over two decades, this paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the epidemiological transition in a rural South African population.

Methods

We estimate overall and cause-specific hazards of death as functions of sex, age and time period from mortality data from the Agincourt Health and socio-Demographic Surveillance System and conduct statistical tests of changes and differentials to assess the progression of the epidemiological transition over the period 1993–2013.

Results

From the early 1990s until 2007 the population experienced a reversal in its epidemiological transition, driven mostly by increased HIV/AIDS and TB related mortality. In recent years, the transition is following a positive trajectory as a result of declining HIV/AIDS and TB related mortality. However, in most age groups the cause of death distribution is yet to reach the levels it occupied in the early 1990s. The transition is also characterized by persistent gender differences with more rapid positive progression in females than males.

Conclusions

This typical rural South African population is experiencing a protracted epidemiological transition. The intersection and interaction of HIV/AIDS and antiretroviral treatment, non-communicable disease risk factors and complex social and behavioral changes will impact on continued progress in reducing preventable mortality and improving health across the life course. Integrated healthcare planning and program delivery is required to improve access and adherence for HIV and non-communicable disease treatment. These findings from a local, rural setting over an extended period contribute to the evidence needed to inform further refinement and advancement of epidemiological transition theory.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12889-017-4312-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Making unhealthy places: The built environment and non-communicable diseases in Khayelitsha, Cape Town

In this paper, we examine how economic, social and political forces impact on NCDs in Khayelitsha (a predominantly low income area in Cape Town, South Africa) through their shaping of the built environment. The paper draws on literature reviews and ethnographic fieldwork undertaken in Khayelitsha. The three main pathways through which the built environment of the area impacts on NCDs are through a complex food environment in which it is difficult to achieve food security, an environment that is not conducive to safe physical activity, and high levels of depression and stress (linked to, amongst other factors, poverty, crime and fear of crime). All of these factors are at least partially linked to the isolated, segregated and monofunctional nature of Khayelitsha. The paper highlights that in order to effectively address urban health challenges, we need to understand how economic, social and political forces impact on NCDs through the way they shape built environments.

Community health workers can improve child growth of antenatally-depressed, South African mothers: a cluster randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Maternal antenatal depression has long-term consequences for children's health. We examined if home visits by community health workers (CHW) can improve growth outcomes for children of mothers who are antenatally depressed.

METHODS

A cluster randomized controlled trial of all pregnant, neighbourhood women in Cape Town, South Africa. Almost all pregnant women (98 %, N = 1238) were recruited and assessed during pregnancy, two weeks post-birth (92 %) and 6 months post-birth (88 %). Pregnant women were randomized to either: 1) Standard Care (SC), which provided routine antenatal care; or 2) an intervention, The Philani Intervention Program (PIP), which included SC and home visits by CHW trained as generalists (M = 11 visits). Child standardized weight, length, and weight by length over 6 months based on maternal antenatal depression and intervention condition.

RESULTS

Depressed mood was similar across the PIP and SC conditions both antenatally (16.5 % rate) and at 6 months (16.7 %). The infants of depressed pregnant women in the PIP group were similar in height (height-for-age Z scores) to the children of non-depressed mothers in both the PIP and the SC conditions, but significantly taller at 6 months of age than the infants of pregnant depressed mothers in the SC condition. The intervention did not moderate children's growth. Depressed SC mothers tended to have infants less than two standard deviations in height on the World Health Organization's norms at two weeks post-birth compared to infants of depressed PIP mothers and non-depressed mothers in both conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

A generalist, CHW-delivered home visiting program improved infant growth, even when mothers' depression was not reduced. Focusing on maternal caretaking of infants, even when mothers are depressed, is critical in future interventions.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov registration # NCT00996528 . October 15, 2009.

Making unhealthy places: The built environment and non-communicable diseases in Khayelitsha, Cape Town

In this paper, we examine how economic, social and political forces impact on NCDs in Khayelitsha (a predominantly low income area in Cape Town, South Africa) through their shaping of the built environment. The paper draws on literature reviews and ethnographic fieldwork undertaken in Khayelitsha. The three main pathways through which the built environment of the area impacts on NCDs are through a complex food environment in which it is difficult to achieve food security, an environment that is not conducive to safe physical activity, and high levels of depression and stress (linked to, amongst other factors, poverty, crime and fear of crime). All of these factors are at least partially linked to the isolated, segregated and monofunctional nature of Khayelitsha. The paper highlights that in order to effectively address urban health challenges, we need to understand how economic, social and political forces impact on NCDs through the way they shape built environments.

Intentional injury and violence in Cape Town, South Africa: an epidemiological analysis of trauma admissions data

Background

Injury is a truly global health issue that has enormous societal and economic consequences in all countries. Interpersonal violence is now widely recognized as important global public health issues that can be addressed through evidence-based interventions. In South Africa, as in many low- and middle-income countries (LMIC), a lack of ongoing, systematic injury surveillance has limited the ability to characterize the burden of violence-related injury and to develop prevention programmes.

Objective

To describe the profile of trauma presenting to the trauma centre of Groote Schuur Hospital in Cape Town, South Africa – relating to interpersonal violence, using data collected from a newly implemented surveillance system. Particular emphasis was placed on temporal aspects of injury epidemiology, as well as age and sex differentiation.

Design

Data were collected prospectively using a standardized trauma admissions form for all patients presenting to the trauma centre. An epidemiological analysis was conducted on 16 months of data collected from June 2010 to October 2011.

Results

A total of 8445 patients were included in the analysis, in which the majority were violence-related. Specifically, 35% of records included violent trauma and, of those, 75% of victims were male. There was a clear temporal pattern: a greater proportion of intentional injuries occur during the night, while unintentional injury peaks late in the afternoon. In total, two-third of all intentional trauma is inflicted on the weekends, as is 60% of unintentional trauma. Where alcohol was recorded in the record, 72% of cases involved intentional injury. Sex was again a key factor as over 80% of all records involving alcohol or substance abuse were associated with males. The findings highlighted the association between violence, young males, substance use, and weekends.

Conclusions

This study provides the basis for evidence-based interventions to reduce the burden of intentional injury. Furthermore, it demonstrates the value of locally appropriate, ongoing, systematic public health surveillance in LMIC.

The roles of community health workers in management of non-communicable diseases in an urban township

Background

Community health workers (CHWs) are increasingly being recognised as a crucial part of the health workforce in South Africa and other parts of the world. CHWs have taken on a variety of roles, including community empowerment, provision of services and linking communities with health facilities. Their roles are better understood in the areas of maternal and child health and infectious diseases (HIV infection, malaria and tuberculosis).

Aim

This study seeks to explore the current roles of CHWs working with non-communicable diseases (NCDs).

Setting

The study was conducted in an urban township in Cape Town, South Africa.

Method

A qualitative naturalistic research design utilising observations and in-depth interviews with CHWs and their supervisors working in Khayelitsha was used.

Results

CHWs have multiple roles in the care of NCDs. They act as health educators, advisors, rehabilitation workers and support group facilitators. They further screen for complications of illness and assist community members to navigate the health system. These roles are shaped both by expectations of the health system and in response to community needs.

Conclusion

This study indicates the complexities of the roles of CHWs working with NCDs. Understanding the actual roles of CHWs provides insights into not only the competencies required to enable them to fulfil their daily functions, but also the type of training required to fill the present gaps.

Two decades of mortality change in rural northeast South Africa

BACKGROUND

The MRC/Wits University Agincourt research centre, part of the INDEPTH Network, has documented mortality in a defined population in the rural northeast of South Africa for 20 years (1992-2011) using long-term health and socio-demographic surveillance. Detail on the unfolding, at times unpredicted, mortality pattern has been published. This experience is reviewed here and updated using more recent data.

OBJECTIVE

To present a review and summary of mortality patterns across all age-sex groups in the Agincourt sub-district population for the period 1992-2011 as a comprehensive basis for public health action.

DESIGN

Vital events in the Agincourt population have been updated in annual surveys undertaken since 1992. All deaths have been rigorously recorded and followed by verbal autopsy interviews. Responses to questions from these interviews have been processed retrospectively using the WHO 2012 verbal autopsy standard and the InterVA-4 model for assigning causes of death in a standardised manner.

RESULTS

Between 1992 and 2011, a total of 12,209 deaths were registered over 1,436,195 person-years of follow-up, giving a crude mortality rate of 8.5 per 1,000 person-years. During the 20-year period, the population experienced a major HIV epidemic, which resulted in more than doubling of overall mortality for an extended period. Recent years show signs of declining mortality, but levels remain above the 1992 baseline recorded using the surveillance system.

CONCLUSIONS

The Agincourt population has experienced a major mortality shock over the past two decades from which it will take time to recover. The basic epidemic patterns are consistent with generalised mortality patterns observed in South Africa as a whole, but the detailed individual surveillance behind these analyses allows finer-grained analyses of specific causes, age-related risks, and trends over time. These demonstrate the complex, somewhat unpredicted course of mortality transition over the years since the dawn of South Africa's democratic era in 1994.

Antenatal depression case finding by community health workers in South Africa: feasibility of a mobile phone application

Randomized controlled trials conducted in resource-limited settings have shown that once women with depressed mood are evaluated by specialists and referred for treatment, lay health workers can be trained to effectively administer psychological treatments. We sought to determine the extent to which community health workers could also be trained to conduct case finding using short and ultrashort screening instruments programmed into mobile phones. Pregnant, Xhosa-speaking women were recruited independently in two cross-sectional studies (N = 1,144 and N = 361) conducted in Khayelitsha, South Africa and assessed for antenatal depression. In the smaller study, community health workers with no training in human subject research were trained to administer the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) during the routine course of their community-based outreach. We compared the operating characteristics of four short and ultrashort versions of the EPDS with the criterion standard of probable depression, defined as an EPDS-10 ≥ 13. The prevalence of probable depression (475/1144 [42 %] and 165/361 [46 %]) was consistent across both samples. The 2-item subscale demonstrated poor internal consistency (Cronbach's α ranged from 0.55 to 0.58). All four subscales demonstrated excellent discrimination, with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values ranging from 0.91 to 0.99. Maximal discrimination was observed for the 7-item depressive symptoms subscale: at the conventional screening threshold of ≥10, it had 0.97 sensitivity and 0.76 specificity for detecting probable antenatal depression. The comparability of the findings across the two studies suggests that it is feasible to use community health workers to conduct case finding for antenatal depression.

Community-based prenatal screening for postpartum depression in a South African township

OBJECTIVE

To assess the feasibility of using community health workers to administer short or ultra-short screening instruments during routine community-based prenatal outreach for detecting probable depression at 12 weeks postpartum.

METHODS

During pregnancy and at 12 weeks postpartum, the 10-item Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS-10) was administered to 249 Xhosa-speaking black African women living in Khayelitsha, South Africa. We compared the operating characteristics of the prenatal EPDS-10, as well as 4 short and ultra-short subscales, with the criterion standard of probable postpartum depression.

RESULTS

Seventy-nine (31.7%) women were assessed as having probable postpartum depression. A prenatal EPDS-10 score of 13 or higher had 0.67 sensitivity and 0.67 specificity for detecting probable postpartum depression. Briefer subscales performed similarly.

CONCLUSION

Community health workers successfully conducted community-based screening for depression in a resource-limited setting using short or ultra-short screening instruments. However, overall feasibility was limited because prenatal screening failed to accurately predict probable depression during the postpartum period.

Determinants of premature mortality in a city population: an eight-year observational study concerning subjects aged 18-64

BACKGROUND

Premature deaths constitute 31.1% of all deaths in Łódź. Analysis of the causes of premature deaths may be helpful in the evaluation of health risk factors. Moreover, findings of this study may enhance prophylactic measures.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

In 2001, 1857 randomly selected citizens, aged 18-64, were included in the Countrywide Integrated Noncommunicable Diseases Intervention (CINDI) Programme. In 2009, a follow-up study was conducted and information on the subjects of the study was collected concerning their health status and if they continued to live in Łódź. The Cox proportional hazards model was used for evaluation of hazard coefficients. We adjusted our calculations for age and sex. The analysis revealed statistically significant associations between the number of premature deaths of the citizens of Łódź and the following variables: a negative self-evaluation of health - HR = 3.096 (95% CI: 1.729-5.543), poor financial situation - HR = 2.811 (95% CI: 1.183-6.672), occurring in the year preceding the study: coronary pain - HR = 2.754 (95% CI: 1.167-6.494), depression - HR = 2.001 (95% CI: 1.222-3.277) and insomnia - HR = 1.660 (95% CI: 1.029-2.678). Our research study also found a negative influence of smoking on the health status - HR = 2.782 (95% CI: 1.581-4.891). Moreover, we conducted survival analyses according to sex and age with Kaplan-Meier curves.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk factors leading to premature deaths were found to be highly significant but possible to reduce by modifying lifestyle-related health behaviours. The confirmed determinants of premature mortality indicate a need to spread and intensify prophylactic activities in Poland, which is a post-communist country, in particular, in the field of cardiovascular diseases.

Sociocultural factors that reduce risks of homicide in Dar es Salaam: a case control study

OBJECTIVES

This study was performed to examine the potential contributions of sociocultural activities to reduce risks of death by homicide.

METHODS

This study was designed as a case control study. Relatives of 90 adult homicide victims in Dar es Salaam Region, Tanzania, in 2005 were interviewed. As controls, 211 participants matched for sex and 5-year age group were randomly selected from the same region and interviewed regarding the same contents.

RESULTS

Bivariate analysis revealed significant differences between victims and controls regarding educational status, occupation, family structure, frequent heavy drinking, hard drug use and religious attendance. Conditional logistic regression analysis indicated that the following factors were significantly related to not becoming victims of homicide: being in employment (unskilled labour: OR=0.04, skilled labour: OR=0.07, others: OR=0.04), higher educational status (OR=0.02), residence in Dar es Salaam after becoming an adult (compared with those who have resided in Dar es Salaam since birth: OR=3.95), living with another person (OR=0.07), not drinking alcohol frequently (OR=0.15) and frequent religious service attendance (OR=0.12).

CONCLUSIONS

Frequent religious service attendance, living in the same place for a long time and living with another person were shown to be factors that contribute to preventing death by homicide, regardless of place of residence and neighbourhood environment. Existing non-structural community resources and social cohesive networks strengthen individual and community resilience against violence.

Food insecurity and its association with co-occurring postnatal depression, hazardous drinking, and suicidality among women in peri-urban South Africa

BACKGROUND

Although the public health impacts of food insecurity and depression on both maternal and child health are extensive, no studies have investigated the associations between food insecurity and postnatal depression or suicidality.

METHODS

We interviewed 249 women three months after they had given birth and assessed food insecurity, postnatal depression symptom severity, suicide risk, and hazardous drinking. Multivariable Poisson regression models with robust standard errors were used to estimate the impact of food insecurity on psychosocial outcomes.

RESULTS

Food insecurity, probable depression, and hazardous drinking were highly prevalent and co-occurring. More than half of the women (149 [59.8%]) were severely food insecure, 79 (31.7%) women met screening criteria for probable depression, and 39 (15.7%) women met screening criteria for hazardous drinking. Nineteen (7.6%) women had significant suicidality, of whom 7 (2.8%) were classified as high risk. Each additional point on the food insecurity scale was associated with increased risks of probable depression (adjusted risk ratio [ARR], 1.05; 95% CI, 1.02-1.07), hazardous drinking (ARR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.00-1.09), and suicidality (ARR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.02-1.23). Evaluated at the means of the covariates, these estimated associations were large in magnitude.

LIMITATIONS

The study is limited by lack of data on formal DSM-IV diagnoses of major depressive disorder, potential sample selection bias, and inability to assess the causal impact of food insecurity.

CONCLUSION

Food insecurity is strongly associated with postnatal depression, hazardous drinking, and suicidality. Programmes promoting food security for new may enhance overall psychological well-being in addition to improving nutritional status.

Inhaled foreign bodies in children: a global perspective on their epidemiological, clinical, and preventive aspects

CONTEXT

While several articles describe clinical management of foreign bodies injuries in the upper air tract, little epidemiological evidence is available from injury databases.

OBJECTIVE

This article aims to understand the burden of airway FB injuries in high-, low-, and middle-income countries as emerging from scientific literature.

DATA SOURCES

One thousand six hundred ninety-nine published articles 1978-2008.

STUDY SELECTION

A free text search on PubMed database ((foreign bodies) or (foreign body)) and ((aspiration) or (airways) or (tracheobronchial) or (nasal) or (inhalation) or (obstruction) or (choking) or (inhaled) or (aspirations) or (nose) or (throat) or (asphyxiation)) and ((children) or (child)).

DATA EXTRACTION

Information on reported injuries according to country, time period, children sex and age, FB type, site of obstruction, symptoms, signs, diagnostic and therapeutic procedures, delay at the diagnosis, complications, number of deaths.

RESULTS

Serious complications occur both in high-income and low-middle income countries in a considerable proportion of cases (10% and 20%, respectively). Similarly, death is not infrequent (5-7% of cases).

CONCLUSIONS

Few countries have good systematic data collection and there's a lack of sensibility in parents and clinicians in terms of acknowledge of the choking risk. On the contrary, international surveillance systems able to collect information in a standardized way need to be implemented.

Implementing community participation through legislative reform: a study of the policy framework for community participation in the Western Cape province of South Africa

Background

Amidst an evolving post-apartheid policy framework for health, policymakers have sought to institutionalize community participation in Primary Health Care, recognizing participation as integral to realizing South Africa’s constitutional commitment to the right to health. With evolving South African legislation supporting community involvement in the health system, early policy developments focused on Community Health Committees (HCs) as the principal institutions of community participation. Formally recognized in the National Health Act of 2003, the National Health Act deferred to provincial governments in establishing the specific roles and functions of HCs. As a result, stakeholders developed a Draft Policy Framework for Community Participation in Health (Draft Policy) to formalize participatory institutions in the Western Cape province.

Methods

With the Draft Policy as a frame of analysis, the researchers conducted documentary policy analysis and semi-structured interviews on the evolution of South African community participation policy. Moving beyond the specific and unique circumstances of the Western Cape, this study analyzes generalizable themes for rights-based community participation in the health system.

Results

Framing institutions for the establishment, appointment, and functioning of community participation, the Draft Policy proposed a formal network of communication – from local HCs to the health system. However, this participation structure has struggled to establish itself and function effectively as a result of limitations in community representation, administrative support, capacity building, and policy commitment. Without legislative support for community participation, the enactment of superseding legislation is likely to bring an end to HC structures in the Western Cape.

Conclusions

Attempts to realize community participation have not adequately addressed the underlying factors crucial to promoting effective participation, with policy reforms necessary: to codify clearly defined roles and functions of community representation; to outline how communities engage with government through effective and accountable channels for participation; and to ensure extensive training and capacity building of community representatives. Given the public health importance of structured and effective policies for community participation, and the normative importance of participation in realizing a rights-based approach to health, this analysis informs researchers on the challenges to institutionalizing participation in health systems policy and provides practitioners with a research base to frame future policy reforms.

HIV, aging and continuity care: strengthening health systems to support services for noncommunicable diseases in low-income countries

Although health systems in most low-income countries largely provide episodic care for acute symptomatic conditions, many HIV programs have developed effective, locally owned and contextually appropriate policies, systems and tools to support chronic care services for persons living with HIV (PLWH). The continuity of care provided by such programs may be especially critical for older PLWH, who are at risk for more rapid progression of disease and are more likely to have complications of HIV and its treatment than their younger counterparts. Older PLWH are also more likely to have other chronic noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), including hypertension, diabetes, cancers and chronic lung disease. As the number of older PLWH rises, enhanced chronic care systems will be required to optimize their health and wellbeing. These systems, lessons and resources can also be leveraged to support the burgeoning numbers of HIV-negative individuals with chronic NCD in need of ongoing care.

Prevalence, causes and socio-economic determinants of vision loss in Cape Town, South Africa

Purpose

To estimate the prevalence and causes of blindness and visual impairment in Cape Town, South Africa and to explore socio-economic and demographic predictors of vision loss in this setting.

Methods

A cross sectional population-based survey was conducted in Cape Town. Eighty-two clusters were selected using probability proportionate to size sampling. Within each cluster 35 or 40 people aged 50 years and above were selected using compact segment sampling. Visual acuity of participants was assessed and eyes with a visual acuity less than 6/18 were examined by an ophthalmologist to determine the cause of vision loss. Demographic data (age, gender and education) were collected and a socio-economic status (SES) index was created using principal components analysis.

Results

Out of 3100 eligible people, 2750 (89%) were examined. The sample prevalence of bilateral blindness (presenting visual acuity <3/60) was 1.4% (95% CI 0.9–1.8). Posterior segment diseases accounted for 65% of blindness and cataract was responsible for 27%. The prevalence of vision loss was highest among people over 80 years (odds ratio (OR) 6.9 95% CI 4.6–10.6), those in the poorest SES group (OR 3.9 95% CI 2.2–6.7) and people with no formal education (OR 5.4 95% CI 1.7–16.6). Cataract surgical coverage was 68% in the poorest SES tertile (68%) compared to 93% in the medium and 100% in the highest tertile.

Conclusions

The prevalence of blindness among people ≥50 years in Cape Town was lower than expected and the contribution of posterior segment diseases higher than previously reported in South Africa and Sub Saharan Africa. There were clear socio-economic disparities in prevalence of vision loss and cataract surgical coverage in this setting which need to be addressed in blindness prevention programs.

Using verbal autopsy to track epidemic dynamics: the case of HIV-related mortality in South Africa

Background

Verbal autopsy (VA) has often been used for point estimates of cause-specific mortality, but seldom to characterize long-term changes in epidemic patterns. Monitoring emerging causes of death involves practitioners' developing perceptions of diseases and demands consistent methods and practices. Here we retrospectively analyze HIV-related mortality in South Africa, using physician and modeled interpretation.

Methods

Between 1992 and 2005, 94% of 6,153 deaths which occurred in the Agincourt subdistrict had VAs completed, and coded by two physicians and the InterVA model. The physician causes of death were consolidated into a single consensus underlying cause per case, with an additional physician arbitrating where different diagnoses persisted. HIV-related mortality rates and proportions of deaths coded as HIV-related by individual physicians, physician consensus, and the InterVA model were compared over time.

Results

Approximately 20% of deaths were HIV-related, ranging from early low levels to tenfold-higher later population rates (2.5 per 1,000 person-years). Rates were higher among children under 5 years and adults 20 to 64 years. Adult mortality shifted to older ages as the epidemic progressed, with a noticeable number of HIV-related deaths in the over-65 year age group latterly. Early InterVA results suggested slightly higher initial HIV-related mortality than physician consensus found. Overall, physician consensus and InterVA results characterized the epidemic very similarly. Individual physicians showed marked interobserver variation, with consensus findings generally reflecting slightly lower proportions of HIV-related deaths. Aggregated findings for first versus second physician did not differ appreciably.

Conclusions

VA effectively detected a very significant epidemic of HIV-related mortality. Using either physicians or InterVA gave closely comparable findings regarding the epidemic. The consistency between two physician coders per case (from a pool of 14) suggests that double coding may be unnecessary, although the consensus rate of HIV-related mortality was approximately 8% lower than by individual physicians. Consistency within and between individual physicians, individual perceptions of epidemic dynamics, and the inherent consistency of models are important considerations here. The ability of the InterVA model to track a more than tenfold increase in HIV-related mortality over time suggests that finely tuned "local" versions of models for VA interpretation are not necessary.

Exposing misclassified HIV/AIDS deaths in South Africa

OBJECTIVE

To quantify the deaths from human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection or acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) that are misattributed to other causes in South Africa's death registration data and to adjust for this bias.

METHODS

Deaths in the World Health Organization's mortality database were distributed among 48 mutually exclusive causes. For each cause, age- and sex-specific global death rates were compared with the average rate among people aged 65-69, 70-74 and 75-79 years to generate "relative" global death rates. Relative rates were also computed for South Africa alone. Differences between global and South African relative death rates were used to identify the causes to which deaths from HIV/AIDS were misattributed in South Africa and quantify the HIV/AIDS deaths misattributed to each. These deaths were then reattributed to HIV/AIDS.

FINDINGS

In South Africa, deaths from HIV/AIDS are often misclassified as being caused by 14 other conditions. Whereas in 1996-2006 deaths attributed to HIV/AIDS accounted for 2.0-2.5% of all registered deaths in South Africa, our analysis shows that the true cause-specific mortality fraction rose from 19% (uncertainty range: 7-28%) to 48% (uncertainty range: 38-50%) over that period. More than 90% of HIV/AIDS deaths were found to have been misattributed to other causes during 1996-2006.

CONCLUSION

Adjusting for cause of death misclassification, a simple procedure that can be carried out in any country, can improve death registration data and provide empirical estimates of HIV/AIDS deaths that may be useful in assessing estimates from demographic models.