Times to key events in Zika virus infection and implications for blood donation: a systematic review

Best practices for estimating and reporting epidemiological delay distributions of infectious diseases

Epidemiological delays are key quantities that inform public health policy and clinical practice. They are used as inputs for mathematical and statistical models, which in turn can guide control strategies. In recent work, we found that censoring, right truncation, and dynamical bias were rarely addressed correctly when estimating delays and that these biases were large enough to have knock-on impacts across a large number of use cases. Here, we formulate a checklist of best practices for estimating and reporting epidemiological delays. We also provide a flowchart to guide practitioners based on their data. Our examples are focused on the incubation period and serial interval due to their importance in outbreak response and modeling, but our recommendations are applicable to other delays. The recommendations, which are based on the literature and our experience estimating epidemiological delay distributions during outbreak responses, can help improve the robustness and utility of reported estimates and provide guidance for the evaluation of estimates for downstream use in transmission models or other analyses.

Envelope Protein-Targeting Zika Virus Entry Inhibitors

Zika virus (ZIKV; family, Flaviviridae), which causes congenital Zika syndrome, Guillain-Barré Syndrome, and other severe diseases, is transmitted mainly by mosquitoes; however, the virus can be transmitted through other routes. Among the three structural and seven nonstructural proteins, the surface envelope (E) protein of ZIKV plays a critical role in viral entry and pathogenesis, making it a key target for the development of effective entry inhibitors. This review article describes the life cycle, genome, and encoded proteins of ZIKV, illustrates the structure and function of the ZIKV E protein, summarizes E protein-targeting entry inhibitors (with a focus on those based on natural products and small molecules), and highlights challenges that may potentially hinder the development of effective inhibitors of ZIKV infection. Overall, the article will provide useful guidance for further development of safe and potent ZIKV entry inhibitors targeting the viral E protein.

Comparative Evaluation of Select Serological Assays for Zika Virus Using Blinded Reference Panels

In response to the 2015 Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic that occurred in Brazil, numerous commercial serological assays have been developed for clinical and research applications. Diagnosis of recent infection in pregnant women remains challenging. Having standardized, comparative studies of ZIKV tests is important for implementing optimal diagnostic testing and disease surveillance. This is especially important for serology tests used to detect ZIKV infection given that antibodies against ZIKV can cross-react with other arboviruses in the same virus family, such as dengue virus (DENV), yellow fever virus (YFV) and West Nile virus (WNV). We looked at the sensitivity and specificity of tests detecting ZIKV antibodies (IgM, IgG) from multiple manufacturers using panels of samples previously collected with known exposure to ZIKV and other arboviruses. We found that performance of the IgM tests was highly variable, with only one test (Inbios 2.0 IgM capture ELISA) having both high sensitivity and specificity. All IgG tests showed good sensitivity; however, specificity was highly variable, with some assays giving false-positive results on samples infected by another flavivirus. Overall, the results confirmed that accurate ZIKV antibody testing is challenging, especially in specimens from regions endemic for multiple other flaviviruses, and highlight the importance of available and suitable reference samples to evaluate ZIKV diagnostics.

Modeling the spread of the Zika virus by sexual and mosquito transmission

Zika Virus (ZIKV) is a flavivirus that is transmitted predominantly by the Aedes species of mosquito, but also through sexual contact, blood transfusions, and congenitally from mother to child. Although approximately 80% of ZIKV infections are asymptomatic and typical symptoms are mild, multiple studies have demonstrated a causal link between ZIKV and severe diseases such as Microcephaly and Guillain Barré Syndrome. Two goals of this study are to improve ZIKV models by considering the spread dynamics of ZIKV as both a vector-borne and sexually transmitted disease, and also to approximate the degree of under-reporting. In order to accomplish these objectives, we propose a compartmental model that allows for the analysis of spread dynamics as both a vector-borne and sexually transmitted disease, and fit it to the ZIKV incidence reported to the National System of Public Health Surveillance in 27 municipalities of Colombia between January 1 2015 and December 31 2017. We demonstrate that our model can represent the infection patterns over this time period with high confidence. In addition, we argue that the degree of under-reporting is also well estimated. Using the model we assess potential viability of public health scenarios for mitigating disease spread and find that targeting the sexual pathway alone has negligible impact on overall spread, but if the proportion of risky sexual behavior increases then it may become important. Targeting mosquitoes remains the best approach of those considered. These results may be useful for public health organizations and governments to construct and implement suitable health policies and reduce the impact of the Zika outbreaks.

A Zika virus-specific IgM elicited in pregnancy exhibits ultrapotent neutralization

Congenital Zika virus (ZIKV) infection results in neurodevelopmental deficits in up to 14% of infants born to ZIKV-infected mothers. Neutralizing antibodies are a critical component of protective immunity. Here, we demonstrate that plasma IgM contributes to ZIKV immunity in pregnancy, mediating neutralization up to 3 months post-symptoms. From a ZIKV-infected pregnant woman, we isolated a pentameric ZIKV-specific IgM (DH1017.IgM) that exhibited ultrapotent ZIKV neutralization dependent on the IgM isotype. DH1017.IgM targets an envelope dimer epitope within domain II. The epitope arrangement on the virion is compatible with concurrent engagement of all ten antigen-binding sites of DH1017.IgM, a solution not available to IgG. DH1017.IgM protected mice against viremia upon lethal ZIKV challenge more efficiently than when expressed as an IgG. Our findings identify a role for antibodies of the IgM isotype in protection against ZIKV and posit DH1017.IgM as a safe and effective candidate immunotherapeutic, particularly during pregnancy.

Climate-driven mosquito-borne viral suitability index: measuring risk transmission of dengue, chikungunya and Zika in Mexico

Background

Climate variability influences the population dynamics of the Aedes aegypti mosquito that transmits the viruses that cause dengue, chikungunya and Zika. In recent years these diseases have grown considerably. Dengue is now the fastest-growing mosquito-transmitted disease worldwide, putting 40 per cent of the global population at risk. With no effective antiviral treatments or vaccines widely available, controlling mosquito population remains one of the most effective ways to prevent epidemics. This paper analyses the temporal and spatial dynamics of dengue in Mexico during 2000–2020 and that of chikungunya and Zika since they first appeared in the country in 2014 and 2015, respectively. This study aims to evaluate how seasonal climatological variability affects the potential risk of transmission of these mosquito-borne diseases. Mexico is among the world’s most endemic countries in terms of dengue. Given its high incidence of other mosquito-borne diseases and its size and wide range of climates, it is a good case study.

Methods

We estimate the recently proposed mosquito-borne viral suitability index P, which measures the transmission potential of mosquito-borne pathogens. This index mathematically models how humidity, temperature and precipitation affect the number of new infections generated by a single infected adult female mosquito in a host population. We estimate this suitability index across all Mexico, at small-area level, on a daily basis during 2000–2020.

Results

We find that the index P predicted risk transmission is strongly correlated with the areas and seasons with a high incidence of dengue within the country. This correlation is also high enough for chikungunya and Zika in Mexico. We also show the index P is sensitive to seasonal climatological variability, including extreme weather shocks.

Conclusions

The paper shows the dynamics of dengue, chikungunya and Zika in Mexico are strongly associated with seasonal climatological variability and the index P. This potential risk of transmission index, therefore, is a valuable tool for surveillance for mosquito-borne diseases, particularly in settings with varied climates and limited entomological capacity.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12942-022-00317-0.

Estimating the effective reproduction number for heterogeneous models using incidence data

The effective reproduction number, R ( t ) , plays a key role in the study of infectious diseases, indicating the current average number of new infections caused by an infected individual in an epidemic process. Estimation methods for the time evolution of R ( t ) , using incidence data, rely on the generation interval distribution, g(τ), which is usually obtained from empirical data or theoretical studies using simple epidemic models. However, for systems that present heterogeneity, either on the host population or in the expression of the disease, there is a lack of data and of a suitable general methodology to obtain g(τ). In this work, we use mathematical models to bridge this gap. We present a general methodology for obtaining explicit expressions of the reproduction numbers and the generation interval distributions, within and between model sub-compartments provided by an arbitrary compartmental model. Additionally, we present the appropriate expressions to evaluate those reproduction numbers using incidence data. To highlight the relevance of such methodology, we apply it to the spread of COVID-19 in municipalities of the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Using two meta-population models, we estimate the reproduction numbers and the contributions of each municipality in the generation of cases in all others.

Estimating the effective reproduction number for heterogeneous models using incidence data

The effective reproduction number, R ( t ) , plays a key role in the study of infectious diseases, indicating the current average number of new infections caused by an infected individual in an epidemic process. Estimation methods for the time evolution of R ( t ) , using incidence data, rely on the generation interval distribution, g(τ), which is usually obtained from empirical data or theoretical studies using simple epidemic models. However, for systems that present heterogeneity, either on the host population or in the expression of the disease, there is a lack of data and of a suitable general methodology to obtain g(τ). In this work, we use mathematical models to bridge this gap. We present a general methodology for obtaining explicit expressions of the reproduction numbers and the generation interval distributions, within and between model sub-compartments provided by an arbitrary compartmental model. Additionally, we present the appropriate expressions to evaluate those reproduction numbers using incidence data. To highlight the relevance of such methodology, we apply it to the spread of COVID-19 in municipalities of the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Using two meta-population models, we estimate the reproduction numbers and the contributions of each municipality in the generation of cases in all others.

Estimating the effective reproduction number for heterogeneous models using incidence data

The effective reproduction number, R ( t ) , plays a key role in the study of infectious diseases, indicating the current average number of new infections caused by an infected individual in an epidemic process. Estimation methods for the time evolution of R ( t ) , using incidence data, rely on the generation interval distribution, g(τ), which is usually obtained from empirical data or theoretical studies using simple epidemic models. However, for systems that present heterogeneity, either on the host population or in the expression of the disease, there is a lack of data and of a suitable general methodology to obtain g(τ). In this work, we use mathematical models to bridge this gap. We present a general methodology for obtaining explicit expressions of the reproduction numbers and the generation interval distributions, within and between model sub-compartments provided by an arbitrary compartmental model. Additionally, we present the appropriate expressions to evaluate those reproduction numbers using incidence data. To highlight the relevance of such methodology, we apply it to the spread of COVID-19 in municipalities of the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Using two meta-population models, we estimate the reproduction numbers and the contributions of each municipality in the generation of cases in all others.

Game-Theoretical Model of the Voluntary Use of Insect Repellents to Prevent Zika Fever

Zika fever is an emerging mosquito-borne disease. While it often causes no or only mild symptoms that are similar to dengue fever, Zika virus can spread from a pregnant woman to her baby and cause severe birth defects. There is no specific treatment or vaccine, but the disease can be mitigated by using several control strategies, generally focusing on the reduction in mosquitoes or mosquito bites. In this paper, we model Zika virus transmission and incorporate a game-theoretical approach to study a repeated population game of DEET usage to prevent insect bites. We show that the optimal use effectively leads to disease elimination. This result is robust and not significantly dependent on the cost of the insect repellents.

SARS-CoV-2, Zika viruses and mycoplasma: Structure, pathogenesis and some treatment options in these emerging viral and bacterial infectious diseases

The molecular evolution of life on earth along with changing environmental, conditions has rendered mankind susceptible to endemic and pandemic emerging infectious diseases. The effects of certain systemic viral and bacterial infections on morbidity and mortality are considered as examples of recent emerging infections. Here we will focus on three examples of infections that are important in pregnancy and early childhood: SARS-CoV-2 virus, Zika virus, and Mycoplasma species. The basic structural characteristics of these infectious agents will be examined, along with their general pathogenic mechanisms. Coronavirus infections, such as caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, likely evolved from zoonotic bat viruses to infect humans and cause a pandemic that has been the biggest challenge for humanity since the Spanish Flu pandemic of the early 20th century. In contrast, Zika Virus infections represent an expanding infectious threat in the context of global climate change. The relationship of these infections to pregnancy, the vertical transmission and neurological sequels make these viruses highly relevant to the topics of this special issue. Finally, mycoplasmal infections have been present before mankind evolved, but they were rarely identified as human pathogens until recently, and they are now recognized as important coinfections that are able to modify the course and prognosis of various infectious diseases and other chronic illnesses. The infectious processes caused by these intracellular microorganisms are examined as well as some general aspects of their pathogeneses, clinical presentations, and diagnoses. We will finally consider examples of treatments that have been used to reduce morbidity and mortality of these infections and discuss briefly the current status of vaccines, in particular, against the SARS-CoV-2 virus. It is important to understand some of the basic features of these emerging infectious diseases and the pathogens involved in order to better appreciate the contributions of this special issue on how infectious diseases can affect human pregnancy, fetuses and neonates.

Advances and insights in the diagnosis of viral infections

Viral infections are the most common among diseases that globally require around 60 percent of medical care. However, in the heat of the pandemic, there was a lack of medical equipment and inpatient facilities to provide all patients with viral infections. The detection of viral infections is possible in three general ways such as (i) direct virus detection, which is performed immediately 1-3 days after the infection, (ii) determination of antibodies against some virus proteins mainly observed during/after virus incubation period, (iii) detection of virus-induced disease when specific tissue changes in the organism. This review surveys some global pandemics from 1889 to 2020, virus types, which induced these pandemics, and symptoms of some viral diseases. Non-analytical methods such as radiology and microscopy also are overviewed. This review overlooks molecular analysis methods such as nucleic acid amplification, antibody-antigen complex determination, CRISPR-Cas system-based viral genome determination methods. Methods widely used in the certificated diagnostic laboratory for SARS-CoV-2, Influenza A, B, C, HIV, and other viruses during a viral pandemic are outlined. A comprehensive overview of molecular analytical methods has shown that the assay's sensitivity, accuracy, and suitability for virus detection depends on the choice of the number of regions in the viral open reading frame (ORF) genome sequence and the validity of the selected analytical method.

Development of a novel NS1 competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for the early detection of Zika virus infection

Zika virus (ZIKV) is a flavivirus that has emerged as a global health threat after the 2015 outbreak in the Americas, where devastating congenital defects were documented. There are currently no vaccines to prevent ZIKV infections nor commercially available clinical diagnostic tests demonstrated to identify ZIKV without cross-reactive interference of related flaviviruses. Early diagnosis is critical when treating symptomatic patients and in preventing ZIKV transmission. In this context, the development of sensitive and accurate diagnostic methods are urgently needed for the detection of ZIKV acute infection. The aim of this study consisted of obtaining monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) against denatured monomeric ZIKV Nonstructural protein 1 (ZNS1), a useful diagnostic marker for flavivirus early detection, in order to develop a highly specific and sensitive ZNS1 indirect competitive ELISA (icELISA). The production of hybridomas secreting ZNS1 mAbs was carried out through immunizations with denatured monomeric ZNS1. We selected 1F5 and 6E2 hybridoma clones, which recognized the heat-denatured ZNS1 hexameric form by indirect ELISA. Cross-reaction studies indicated that these mAbs specifically bind to a ZNS1 linear epitope, and that they do not cross-react with the NS1 protein from other related flaviviruses. The 1F5 mAb enabled the development of a sensitive and reproducible icELISA to detect and quantify small amounts of ZNS1 disease marker in heat-denatured human sera. Here, we establish a reliable 1F5 based-icELISA that constitutes a promising diagnostic tool for control strategies and the prevention of ZIKV propagation.

Effects of changes in temperature on Zika dynamics and control

When a rare pathogen emerges to cause a pandemic, it is critical to understand its dynamics and the impact of mitigation measures. We use experimental data to parametrize a temperature-dependent model of Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission dynamics and analyse the effects of temperature variability and control-related parameters on the basic reproduction number (R0) and the final epidemic size of ZIKV. Sensitivity analyses show that these two metrics are largely driven by different parameters, with the exception of temperature, which is the dominant driver of epidemic dynamics in the models. Our R0 estimate has a single optimum temperature (≈30°C), comparable to other published results (≈29°C). However, the final epidemic size is maximized across a wider temperature range, from 24 to 36°C. The models indicate that ZIKV is highly sensitive to seasonal temperature variation. For example, although the model predicts that ZIKV transmission cannot occur at a constant temperature below 23°C (≈ average annual temperature of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil), the model predicts substantial epidemics for areas with a mean temperature of 20°C if there is seasonal variation of 10°C (≈ average annual temperature of Tampa, Florida). This suggests that the geographical range of ZIKV is wider than indicated from static R0 models, underscoring the importance of climate dynamics and variation in the context of broader climate change on emerging infectious diseases.

Estimating incidence of infection from diverse data sources: Zika virus in Puerto Rico, 2016

Emerging epidemics are challenging to track. Only a subset of cases is recognized and reported, as seen with the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic where large proportions of infection were asymptomatic. However, multiple imperfect indicators of infection provide an opportunity to estimate the underlying incidence of infection. We developed a modeling approach that integrates a generic Time-series Susceptible-Infected-Recovered epidemic model with assumptions about reporting biases in a Bayesian framework and applied it to the 2016 Zika epidemic in Puerto Rico using three indicators: suspected arboviral cases, suspected Zika-associated Guillain-Barré Syndrome cases, and blood bank data. Using this combination of surveillance data, we estimated the peak of the epidemic occurred during the week of August 15, 2016 (the 33^rd week of year), and 120 to 140 (50% credible interval [CrI], 95% CrI: 97 to 170) weekly infections per 10,000 population occurred at the peak. By the end of 2016, we estimated that approximately 890,000 (95% CrI: 660,000 to 1,100,000) individuals were infected in 2016 (26%, 95% CrI: 19% to 33%, of the population infected). Utilizing multiple indicators offers the opportunity for real-time and retrospective situational awareness to support epidemic preparedness and response.

Zika virus (ZIKV) infections, like many infections, are generally underreported due to asymptomatic, mild, or unrecognized cases. Using available surveillance indicators reflecting imperfect proxies of infection, we developed a modeling approach to estimate the weekly incidence of infection by combining independent surveillance indicators and assumptions about system-specific reporting biases in a Bayesian framework. Using our approach, we estimated that approximately 890,000 people in the population were infected with Zika in Puerto Rico in 2016, much higher than the 36,316 reported confirmed infections. Our framework has broad application to other diseases where cases may be underreported through traditional disease surveillance and can provide near real-time changes in incidences.

Zika virus pathogenesis and current therapeutic advances

Zika virus (ZIKV) is an emerging arthropod-borne flavivirus that, upon infection, results in teratogenic effects and neurological disorders. ZIKV infections pose serious global public health concerns, prompting scientists to increase research on antivirals and vaccines against the virus. These efforts are still ongoing as the pathogenesis and immune evasion mechanisms of ZIKV have not yet been fully elaborated. Currently, no specific vaccines or drugs have been approved for ZIKV; however, some are undergoing clinical trials. Notably, several strategies have been used to develop antivirals, including drugs that target viral and host proteins. Additionally, drug repurposing is preferred since it is less costly and takes less time than other strategies because the drugs used have already been approved for human use. Likewise, different platforms have been evaluated for the design of vaccines, including DNA, mRNA, peptide, protein, viral vectors, virus-like particles (VLPSs), inactivated-virus, and live-attenuated virus vaccines. These vaccines have been shown to induce specific humoral and cellular immune responses and reduce viremia and viral RNA both in vitro and in vivo. Importantly, most of these vaccines have entered clinical trials. Understanding the viral disease mechanism will provide better strategies for developing therapeutic agents against ZIKV. This review provides a comprehensive summary of the viral pathogenesis of ZIKV and current advancements in the development of vaccines and drugs against this virus.

Modeling intra-mosquito dynamics of Zika virus and its dose-dependence confirms the low epidemic potential of Aedes albopictus

Originating from African forests, Zika virus (ZIKV) has now emerged worldwide in urbanized areas, mainly transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. Although Aedes albopictus can transmit ZIKV experimentally and was suspected to be a ZIKV vector in Central Africa, the potential of this species to sustain virus transmission was yet to be uncovered until the end of 2019, when several autochthonous transmissions of the virus vectored by Ae. albopictus occurred in France. Aside from these few locally acquired ZIKV infections, most territories colonized by Ae. albopictus have been spared so far. The risk level of ZIKV emergence in these areas remains however an open question. To assess Ae. albopictus' vector potential for ZIKV and identify key virus outbreak predictors, we built a complete framework using the complementary combination of (i) dose-dependent experimental Ae. albopictus exposure to ZIKV followed by time-dependent assessment of infection and systemic infection rates, (ii) modeling of intra-human ZIKV viremia dynamics, and (iii) in silico epidemiological simulations using an Agent-Based Model. The highest risk of transmission occurred during the pre-symptomatic stage of the disease, at the peak of viremia. At this dose, mosquito infection probability was estimated to be 20%, and 21 days were required to reach the median systemic infection rates. Mosquito population origin, either temperate or tropical, had no impact on infection rates or intra-host virus dynamic. Despite these unfavorable characteristics for transmission, Ae. albopictus was still able to trigger and yield large outbreaks in a simulated environment in the presence of sufficiently high mosquito biting rates. Our results reveal a low but existing epidemic potential of Ae. albopictus for ZIKV, that might explain the absence of large scale ZIKV epidemics so far in territories occupied only by Ae. albopictus. They nevertheless support active surveillance and eradication programs in these territories to maintain the risk of emergence to a low level.

Evolving viral and serological stages of Zika virus RNA-positive blood donors and estimation of incidence of infection during the 2016 Puerto Rican Zika epidemic: an observational cohort study

BACKGROUND

Puerto Rico began screening blood donations for Zika virus RNA with nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs) on April 3, 2016, because of an emerging Zika virus outbreak. We followed up positive donors to assess the dynamics of viral and serological markers during the early stages of Zika virus infection and update the estimate of infection incidence in the Puerto Rican population during the outbreak.

METHODS

Blood donations from volunteer donors in Puerto Rico were screened for the presence of Zika virus RNA using the cobas Zika NAAT. Positive donations were further tested to confirm infection, estimate viral load, and identify Zika virus-specific IgM antibodies. Individuals with positive blood donations were invited to attend follow-up visits. Donations with confirmed infection (defined as detection of Zika virus RNA or IgM on additional testing of index or follow-up samples) were assessed for stage of infection according to Zika virus RNA detectability in simulated minipools, viral load, and Zika virus IgM status. A three-step process was used to estimate the mean duration of NAAT reactivity of Zika virus in human plasma from individuals identified pre-seroconversion with at least one follow up visit and to update the 2016 incidence estimate of Zika virus infection.

FINDINGS

Between April 3 and Dec 31, 2016, 53 112 blood donations were screened for Zika virus, of which 351 tested positive, 339 had confirmed infections, and 319 could be staged. Compared with IgM-positive index donations (n=110), IgM-negative index donations (n=209) had higher mean viral loads (1·1 × 10⁶vs 8·3 × 10⁴ international units per mL) and were more likely to be detected in simulated minipools (93% [n=194] vs 26% [n=29]). The proportions of donations with confirmed infections that had viral RNA detected only in individual-donation NAATs (ie, not in simulated minipools) and were IgM positive increased as the epidemic evolved. The estimated mean duration of NAAT detectability in the 140 donors included in the follow-up study was 11·70 days (95% CI 10·06-14·36). Applying this detection period to the observed proportion of donations that were confirmed NAAT positive yielded a Zika virus seasonal incidence estimate of 21·1% (95% CI 18·1-24·1); 768 101 infections in a population of 3 638 773 in 2016.

INTERPRETATION

Characterisation of early Zika virus infection has implications for blood safety because infectivity of blood donations and utility of screening methods likely correlate with viral load and serological stage of infection. Our findings also have implications for diagnostic testing, public health surveillance, and epidemiology, and we estimate that around 21% of the Puerto Rican population was infected during the 2016 outbreak.

FUNDING

Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.

Zika Virus

Zika virus (ZIKV), a neurotropic single-stranded RNA flavivirus, remains an important cause of congenital infection, fetal microcephaly, and Guillain-Barré syndrome in populations where ZIKV has adapted to a nexus involving the Aedes mosquitoes and humans. To date, outbreaks of ZIKV have occurred in Africa, Southeast Asia, the Pacific islands, the Americas, and the Caribbean. Emerging evidence, however, suggests that the virus also has the potential to cause infections in Europe, where autochtonous transmission of the virus has been identified. This review focuses on evolving ZIKV epidemiology, modes of transmission and host-virus interactions. The clinical manifestations, diagnostic issues relating to cross-reactivity to the dengue flavivirus and concerns surrounding ZIKV infection in pregnancy are discussed. In the last section, current challenges in treatment and prevention are outlined.

Comprehensive Profiling of Zika Virus Risk with Natural and Artificial Mitigating Strategies, United States

Zika virus is transitioning to become a long-term public health challenge, and countries should remain informed of the risk for emergence. We developed a stochastic epidemiologic model to profile risk for Zika virus emergence, including trimester-specific fetal risk across time, in all 3,208 counties in the United States, including Puerto Rico. Validation against known transmission in North America demonstrated accuracy to predict epidemic dynamics and absolute case counts across scales (R² = 0.98). We found that, although sporadic single transmission events could occur in most US counties, outbreaks will likely be restricted to the Gulf Coast region and to late spring through autumn. Seasonal fluctuations in birth rates will confer natural population-level protection against early-trimester infections. Overall, outbreak control will be more effective and efficient than prevention, and vaccination will be most effective at >70% coverage. Our county-level risk profiles should serve as a critical resource for resource allocation.

Optimization of recombinant Zika virus NS1 protein secretion from HEK293 cells

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Stable recombinant ZIKV NS1-His-expressing HEK293 cells were generated.

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Rapamycin treatment followed by serum starvation leads to a 29-fold increase in recombinant ZIKV NS1 protein secretion.

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The purified recombinant ZIKV NS1 hexamer is a reliable biological tool for clinical diagnosis and surveillance purposes.

Sensitive, accurate and cost-effective diagnostic tests are urgently needed to detect Zika virus (ZIKV) infection. Nonstructural 1 (NS1) glycoprotein is an excellent diagnostic marker since it is released in a hexameric conformation from infected cells into the patient's bloodstream early in the course of the infection. We established a stable rZNS1-His-expression system in HEK293 cells through lentiviral transduction. A novel optimization approach to enhance rZNS1-His protein secretion in the mammalian expression system was accomplished through 50 nM rapamycin incubation followed by serum-free media incubation for 9 days, reaching protein yields of ∼10 mg/l of culture medium. Purified rZNS1-His hexamer was recognized by anti-NS1 antibodies in ZIKV patient's serum, and showed the ability to induce a humoral response in immunized mice. The obtained recombinant protein is a reliable biological tool that can potentially be applied in the development of diagnostic tests to detect ZIKV in infected patients during the acute phase.

Serial real-time RT-PCR and serology measurements substantially improve Zika and Dengue virus infection classification in a co-circulation area

BACKGROUND

Real-time RT-PCR (Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction) is considered the gold standard for Zika virus (ZIKV) infection diagnosis, despite its low sensitivity. Diagnosis using recommended serologic cutoffs in co-circulating Flaviviruses areas maybe inadequate due to in-vitro cross-reactivities of Flaviviruses-specific antibodies. We evaluated Zika diagnosis in symptomatic patients using serial RT-PCR and develop a classification model using serial Dengue virus (DENV) and ZIKV serologies.

METHODS

A prospective longitudinal multicentric study in Southern Mexico (NCT02831699) enrolled symptomatic and non-symptomatic participants. In the classification model, true positives were symptomatic (using a modified World Health Organization/Pan American Health Organization definition) with RT-PCR positive for ZIKV or DENV. True negatives were non-symptomatic with negative RT-PCR. Serial serology measurements were used to predict disease status.

RESULTS

Analyzing ZIKV and DENV RT-PCR at 3 timepoints between days 3 and 13 of symptom onset detected 25% more cases than a single RT-PCR analysis between day 0 and 6. When considering sensitivity and specificity together, the serial serology model predicted all categories of disease and negatives better than manufactures cutoffs. Their cutoffs optimized sensitivity or specificity but not both.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrated the importance of serial RT-PCR and antibody measurements to diagnose arbovirus infection in symptomatic patients living in regions with co-circulating flaviviruses.

A systematic review and evaluation of Zika virus forecasting and prediction research during a public health emergency of international concern

INTRODUCTION

Epidemic forecasting and prediction tools have the potential to provide actionable information in the midst of emerging epidemics. While numerous predictive studies were published during the 2016-2017 Zika Virus (ZIKV) pandemic, it remains unknown how timely, reproducible, and actionable the information produced by these studies was.

METHODS

To improve the functional use of mathematical modeling in support of future infectious disease outbreaks, we conducted a systematic review of all ZIKV prediction studies published during the recent ZIKV pandemic using the PRISMA guidelines. Using MEDLINE, EMBASE, and grey literature review, we identified studies that forecasted, predicted, or simulated ecological or epidemiological phenomena related to the Zika pandemic that were published as of March 01, 2017. Eligible studies underwent evaluation of objectives, data sources, methods, timeliness, reproducibility, accessibility, and clarity by independent reviewers.

RESULTS

2034 studies were identified, of which n = 73 met the eligibility criteria. Spatial spread, R0 (basic reproductive number), and epidemic dynamics were most commonly predicted, with few studies predicting Guillain-Barré Syndrome burden (4%), sexual transmission risk (4%), and intervention impact (4%). Most studies specifically examined populations in the Americas (52%), with few African-specific studies (4%). Case count (67%), vector (41%), and demographic data (37%) were the most common data sources. Real-time internet data and pathogen genomic information were used in 7% and 0% of studies, respectively, and social science and behavioral data were typically absent in modeling efforts. Deterministic models were favored over stochastic approaches. Forty percent of studies made model data entirely available, 29% provided all relevant model code, 43% presented uncertainty in all predictions, and 54% provided sufficient methodological detail to allow complete reproducibility. Fifty-one percent of predictions were published after the epidemic peak in the Americas. While the use of preprints improved the accessibility of ZIKV predictions by a median of 119 days sooner than journal publication dates, they were used in only 30% of studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Many ZIKV predictions were published during the 2016-2017 pandemic. The accessibility, reproducibility, timeliness, and incorporation of uncertainty in these published predictions varied and indicates there is substantial room for improvement. To enhance the utility of analytical tools for outbreak response it is essential to improve the sharing of model data, code, and preprints for future outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics.

Acute Zika virus infection in an asymptomatic blood donor at the onset of the Puerto Rico epidemic

BACKGROUND

Zika virus (ZIKV) spread to Puerto Rico likely originated from southeastern Brazil approximately 8.5 months earlier than blood donation screening for ZIKV was initiated, but the time of ZIKV introduction in the blood donor population remains unknown.

METHODS

To better understand when arboviral infections first appeared in the blood donor pool in Puerto Rico, we retrospectively screened for ZIKV RNA (as well as chikungunya [CHIKV] and dengue [DENV] viral RNA) a repository of 1186 linked blood donor and recipient samples collected from February 2015 to May 2016 as an endpoint efficacy measure following the introduction of platelet pathogen reduction (PR). Phylogenetic analysis identified relatedness of donor strain to other circulating strains, and molecular clock analysis identified the estimated time of introduction.

RESULTS

An asymptomatic donor collected in December 2015 was ZIKV RNA confirmed positive, 4 months BEFORE investigational nucleic acid testing (NAT) implementation in April 2016, coincident and related to the first reported autochthonous cases. No CHIKV RNA or DENV RNA reactives were identified in donors or recipients, and no adverse events were reported from PR use in recipients. Phylogenetic analysis confirmed the molecular relatedness of the donor ZIKV strain to the Puerto Rico lineage likely introduced approximately 4.5 months earlier.

CONCLUSION

This study identified an asymptomatic ZIKV infection in a blood donor occurring before those previously recognized by blood donation screening. NAT and PR continue to be used as acceptable strategies to prevent transfusion-transmitted arboviral infections worldwide; however, repeated arboviral outbreaks warrant consideration of PR as a more proactive approach.

MVSE: An R-package that estimates a climate-driven mosquito-borne viral suitability index

Viruses, such as dengue, Zika, yellow fever and chikungunya, depend on mosquitoes for transmission. Their epidemics typically present periodic patterns, linked to the underlying mosquito population dynamics, which are known to be driven by natural climate fluctuations. Understanding how climate dictates the timing and potential of viral transmission is essential for preparedness of public health systems and design of control strategies. While various alternative approaches have been proposed to estimate local transmission potential of such viruses, few open-source, ready to use and freely available software tools exist.We developed the Mosquito-borne Viral Suitability Estimator (MVSE) software package for the R programming environment. MVSE estimates the index P, a novel suitability index based on a climate-driven mathematical expression for the basic reproductive number of mosquito-borne viruses. By accounting for local humidity and temperature, as well as viral, vector and human priors, the index P can be estimated for specific host and viral species in different regions of the globe.We describe the background theory, empirical support and biological interpretation of the index P. Using real-world examples spanning multiple epidemiological contexts, we further demonstrate MVSE's basic functionality, research and educational potentials.

Prevalence of Zika virus in blood donations: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Transfusion-Transmitted Zika virus (TT-ZIKV) has become an emerging threat to world blood banks due to the fast spread of ZIKV epidemics and high rate of asymptomatic infections. For the risk assessment of ZIKV infection in blood products, relevant studies in blood donations or blood donors tested for ZIKV were collected and analyzed systematically. The overall prevalence of ZIKV infection were estimated through meta-analysis and potential risk factors were detected. The results will provide important clues for the protocol design of blood screening tests.

METHODS

Relevant articles about the rate of ZIKV detected in blood samples were identified from PubMed, Scopus and Web Of Science using key terms search strategy until October 7, 2017. Eligible articles were screened following inclusion and exclusion criteria. Meta-analysis and subgroup analyses were performed by software R3.4.1. Overall postdonation and posttransfusion follow-ups were analyzed.

RESULTS

Ten literatures (528,947 blood samples) were included for meta-analysis. The overall pooled prevalence of ZIKV (RNA and antibody) in blood donations was 1.02% (95%CI 0.36-1.99). The pooled prevalence of ZIKV RNA in blood donations was 0.85% (95%CI 0.21-1.88) less than the pooled prevalence of anti-ZIKV antibodies 1.61% (95%CI 0.03-5.21), however the difference was not statistically significant (p = 0.52). The prevalence varied significantly in different geographical regions (p < 0.001). Blood donations were more than two times likely to be infected by ZIKV in Zika epidemic period (1.37, 95%CI 0.91-1.91) than in non-epidemic period (0.61, 95%CI 0-2.55). The prevalence of anti-ZIKV antibodies (1.61, 95%CI 0.03-5.21) was almost twice as much as ZIKV nucleic acid detected in blood donations (0.85, 95%CI 0.21-1.88). However, statistically significant differences were not observed. A total of 122 ZIKV positive blood donors were followed, of which 48 (39%) reported symptoms postdonation, but none of the 13 followed recipients reported any clinical symptoms related to Zika infection posttransfusion.

CONCLUSION

The pooled prevalence of Zika infection in blood donations was 1.02%. The prevalence varied greatly and reached to high-risk level in most of the situations. The results suggest that nucleic acid tests (NAT) for blood screening and pathogen reduction/inactivation technology (PRT) should be implemented in Zika-endemic areas and appropriate strategies should be designed according to different conditions. More studies are needed in the future to provide more evidence.

Acute Vector-Borne Viral Infection: Zika and MinION Surveillance

The MinION sequencer was launched by the Oxford Nanopore Technologies start-up as a disruptive technology for genome sequencing based on single-molecule synthesis. Its characteristics as a portable device, low cost, and simple library preparation have made it a good candidate for field researchers. MinION has been used to sequence a number of microorganisms, such as bacteria, viruses, and fungi. Based on the experience that characterized the Ebola virus genetic diversity in Guinea during the 2014-2015 outbreak, the ZiBRA (Zika in Brazil Real-time Analysis) project aimed to sequence a large number of Zika virus genomes during a mobile laboratory trip in northeast Brazil to provide important epidemiological information about the spread of this disease in this country. In response to the positive and rapid results obtained by the ZiBRA project, the Brazilian Ministry of Health and many leading institutions, such as the Pan American Health Organization and WHO, have shown interest in expanding the strategy used in this project to other countries dealing with arbovirus infection. *This article is part of a curated collection.

Dengue and Zika Virus Diagnostic Testing for Patients with a Clinically Compatible Illness and Risk for Infection with Both Viruses

Dengue and Zika viruses are closely related mosquitoborne flaviviruses with similar transmission cycles, distribution throughout the tropics and subtropics, and disease manifestations including fever, rash, myalgia, and arthralgia. For patients with suspected dengue or Zika virus disease, nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs) are the preferred method of diagnosis. Immunoglobulin M (IgM) antibody testing can identify additional infections and remains an important tool for the diagnosis of these diseases, but interpreting the results is complicated by cross-reactivity, and determining the specific timing of infection can be difficult. These limitations are a particular challenge for pregnant women in determining whether Zika virus infection occurred during or before the pregnancy.

This report summarizes existing and new guidance on dengue and Zika virus diagnostic testing for patients with a clinically compatible illness who live in or recently traveled to an area where there is risk for infection with both viruses. CDC recommendations for screening of asymptomatic pregnant women with possible Zika virus exposure are unchanged. For symptomatic nonpregnant persons, dengue and Zika virus NAATs should be performed on serum collected ≤7 days after symptom onset. Dengue and Zika virus IgM antibody testing should be performed on NAAT-negative serum specimens or serum collected >7 days after onset of symptoms. For symptomatic pregnant women, serum and urine specimens should be collected as soon as possible within 12 weeks of symptom onset for concurrent dengue and Zika virus NAATs and IgM antibody testing. Positive IgM antibody test results with negative NAAT results should be confirmed by neutralizing antibody tests when clinically or epidemiologically indicated, including for all pregnant women. Data on the epidemiology of viruses known to be circulating at the location of exposure and clinical findings should be considered when deciding which tests to perform and for interpreting results.

Patients with clinically suspected dengue should receive appropriate management to monitor and treat shock and hemorrhage. Women with laboratory evidence of possible Zika virus infection during pregnancy and their infants should be evaluated and managed for possible adverse outcomes. Dengue and Zika virus disease are nationally notifiable conditions, and cases should be reported to public health authorities.

An agent-based model of dengue virus transmission shows how uncertainty about breakthrough infections influences vaccination impact projections

Prophylactic vaccination is a powerful tool for reducing the burden of infectious diseases, due to a combination of direct protection of vaccinees and indirect protection of others via herd immunity. Computational models play an important role in devising strategies for vaccination by making projections of its impacts on public health. Such projections are subject to uncertainty about numerous factors, however. For example, many vaccine efficacy trials focus on measuring protection against disease rather than protection against infection, leaving the extent of breakthrough infections (i.e., disease ameliorated but infection unimpeded) among vaccinees unknown. Our goal in this study was to quantify the extent to which uncertainty about breakthrough infections results in uncertainty about vaccination impact, with a focus on vaccines for dengue. To realistically account for the many forms of heterogeneity in dengue virus (DENV) transmission, which could have implications for the dynamics of indirect protection, we used a stochastic, agent-based model for DENV transmission informed by more than a decade of empirical studies in the city of Iquitos, Peru. Following 20 years of routine vaccination of nine-year-old children at 80% coverage, projections of the proportion of disease episodes averted varied by a factor of 1.76 (95% CI: 1.54-2.06) across the range of uncertainty about breakthrough infections. This was equivalent to the range of vaccination impact projected across a range of uncertainty about vaccine efficacy of 0.268 (95% CI: 0.210-0.329). Until uncertainty about breakthrough infections can be addressed empirically, our results demonstrate the importance of accounting for it in models of vaccination impact.

Breastfeeding in the time of Zika: a systematic literature review

Background

The disease Zika is considered as emergent. The infection can be acquired through different routes: a bite from the Aedes mosquito, sexual contact, from mother to child during pregnancy and by blood transfusion. The possibility of Zika transmission through human lactation has been considered. Zika is a disease of great concern for public health because it has been associated with neonatal and postnatal microcephaly, among other birth defects.

Objectives

To review published evidence of the probable transmission of Zika through human lactation.

Data sources

Electronic databases: Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, EBSCO, Gale, Science Direct, Scopus, US National Library of Medicine (PubMed) and Web of Science. World Health Organization and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention web pages.

Study eligibility criteria

To be eligible, studies of any design had to provide primary data of human breast milk as a potential fluid for the transmission of Zika, or primary or secondary follow-up data of infants with at least one previous published study that complied with the first criterion of eligibility.

Participants

Studies about women with suspected, probable or confirmed Zika during pregnancy, or the postnatal period and beyond. Studies about infants who breastfeed directly from the breast or where fed with the expressed breast milk of the suspected, probable or confirmed women with Zika.

Results

This study only chose data from research papers; no patients were taken directly by the authors. A total of 1,146 were screened and nine studies were included in the qualitative synthesis, from which a total of 10 cases were identified, with documented follow-up in three of these cases. Through the timing of maternal Zika infection, five cases were classified as prenatal (time before delivery), one as immediate postnatal (period from 0 to 4 days after birth); no cases were classified as medium postnatal (period from 5 days to 8 weeks after birth); two were classified as long postnatal (period from 8 weeks to 6 months after birth) and two as beyond six months after birth.

Conclusion

Human milk may be considered as a potentially infectious fluid, but we found no currently documented studies of the long-term complications in infants up to 32 months of age, with suspected, probable or confirmed Zika through human lactation, or evidence with respect to the human pathophysiology of the infection acquired through human lactation. In the light of the studies reviewed here, the World Health Organization recommendation of June 29th 2016, remains valid: “the benefits of breastfeeding for the infant and mother outweigh any potential risk of Zika virus transmission through breast milk.”

A practical generation-interval-based approach to inferring the strength of epidemics from their speed

Infectious disease outbreaks are often characterized by the reproduction number R and exponential rate of growth r. R provides information about outbreak control and predicted final size, but estimating R is difficult, while r can often be estimated directly from incidence data. These quantities are linked by the generation interval - the time between when an individual is infected by an infector, and when that infector was infected. It is often infeasible to obtain the exact shape of a generation-interval distribution, and to understand how this shape affects estimates of R. We show that estimating generation interval mean and variance provides insight into the relationship between R and r. We use examples based on Ebola, rabies and measles to explore approximations based on gamma-distributed generation intervals, and find that use of these simple approximations are often sufficient to capture the r-R relationship and provide robust estimates of R.

Infectious Disease Transmission in Solid Organ Transplantation: Donor Evaluation, Recipient Risk, and Outcomes of Transmission

In 2016, the Transplantation Society of Australia and New Zealand, with the support of the Australian Government Organ and Tissue authority, commissioned a literature review on the topic of infectious disease transmission from deceased donors to recipients of solid organ transplants. The purpose of this review was to synthesize evidence on transmission risks, diagnostic test characteristics, and recipient management to inform best-practice clinical guidelines. The final review, presented as a special supplement in Transplantation Direct, collates case reports of transmission events and other peer-reviewed literature, and summarizes current (as of June 2017) international guidelines on donor screening and recipient management. Of particular interest at the time of writing was how to maximize utilization of donors at increased risk for transmission of human immunodeficiency virus, hepatitis C virus, and hepatitis B virus, given the recent developments, including the availability of direct-acting antivirals for hepatitis C virus and improvements in donor screening technologies. The review also covers emerging risks associated with recent epidemics (eg, Zika virus) and the risk of transmission of nonendemic pathogens related to donor travel history or country of origin. Lastly, the implications for recipient consent of expanded utilization of donors at increased risk of blood-borne viral disease transmission are considered.

Incidence of Zika virus infection in a prospective cohort of Belgian travellers to the Americas in 2016

BACKGROUND

The incidence rate of Zika virus (ZIKV) infection in travellers from non-endemic areas to the Americas during the ZIKV outbreak in 2016 is unknown.

METHODS

Belgian adults who planned to travel to South America, Central America, and the Caribbean were recruited prospectively to study the incidence and characteristics of ZIKV. Demographic data and sera were collected at baseline. Participants were trained to collect capillary blood on filter paper (BFP). When ill during travel, the participants completed a questionnaire and they sampled BFP for post-hoc analysis. All symptomatic participants were screened for ZIKV using ZIKV-specific RT-PCR on serum or urine, or BFP, and antibody detection assays (ELISA). Follow-up sera of asymptomatic travellers, obtained at least 20 days post travel, were tested by ZIKV ELISA only. All positive ELISA results were subject to confirmation by virus neutralization testing (VNT).

RESULTS

Forty-nine participants completed follow-up: 38 women and 11 men, with a median age of 32 years (range 19-64 years). Travel destinations were countries in South America (n=20), Central America (n=24), and the Caribbean (n=5). The total travel duration was 67.8 person-months. Illness was reported by 24 participants (49.0%). ZIKV infection was confirmed in nine cases, by RT-PCR (n=5) and by VNT (n=4). Only one of nine ZIKV cases (11.1%) was asymptomatic. The ZIKV incidence rate was 17.0% (95% confidence interval 7.8-32.2%) per month of travel.

CONCLUSIONS

The ZIKV incidence rate in adult travellers from non-endemic countries to the epidemic territories during the 2016 outbreak was high. Asymptomatic ZIKV infection was rare in this population.

Variability of Zika Virus Incubation Period in Humans

Zika virus (ZIKV) has recently emerged in numerous tropical countries worldwide. In this study, we estimated ZIKV incubation period distribution using time-to-event models adapted to interval-censored data based on declared date of travels from 123 symptomatic travelers returning from areas with active ZIKV transmission. The median time and 95th percentile of ZIKV incubation period was estimated to 6.8 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.8–7.7 days) and 15.4 days (95% CI, 12.7–19.7 days), respectively. Determining the incubation period for ZIKV is beneficial to improve protection guidelines.

Eye Findings in Infants With Suspected or Confirmed Antenatal Zika Virus Exposure

: media-1vid110.1542/5804915134001PEDS-VA_2018-1104Video Abstract OBJECTIVES: To characterize ophthalmic manifestations of confirmed or suspected antenatal Zika virus (ZIKV) exposure.

METHODS

Infants with antenatal ZIKV exposure were referred for evaluation during the 2015-2016 Rio de Janeiro outbreak. Mothers with symptomatic ZIKV infection during pregnancy and/or infants with microcephaly or other findings that were suggestive of suspected antenatal exposure were tested with reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Complete eye examinations were performed by pediatric ophthalmologists between January 2016 and February 2017. The main outcome measure was eye abnormalities in RT-PCR-positive and suspected (ie, not tested or RT-PCR-negative) antenatal ZIKV cases.

RESULTS

Of 224 infants, 189 had RT-PCR testing performed. Of 189 patients, 156 had positive RT-PCR results in their blood, urine, and/or placenta. Of 224 infants, 90 had central nervous system (CNS) abnormalities, including microcephaly (62 infants). Eye abnormalities were present in 57 of 224 (25.4%) infants. Optic nerve (44 of 57; 77.2%) and retina abnormalities (37 of 57; 64.9%) were the most common. The group with suspected ZIKV infection (68 infants) had proportionally more eye (36.8% vs 20.5%; P = .022) and CNS abnormalities (68.3% vs 28.1%; P = .008), likely because of referral patterns. Eye abnormalities consistent with ZIKV infection were clinically comparable in both RT-PCR-positive and unconfirmed groups, including 4 RT-PCR-positive infants of 5 without any CNS abnormalities.

CONCLUSIONS

Similar eye manifestations were identified regardless of laboratory confirmation. Well-appearing infants were also found to have eye abnormalities. Therefore, all infants born after ZIKV outbreaks should be universally screened for eye abnormalities.

A cross-sectional analysis of Zika virus infection in symptomatic and asymptomatic non-pregnant travellers: Experience of a European reference center during the outbreak in the Americas

BACKGROUND

Zika virus (ZIKV) infection a concern to travellers because of potential sexual transmission and adverse pregnancy outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

To describe our experience in diagnosing ZIKV in travellers returning from endemic territories.

METHOD

Travellers were evaluated for ZIKV at our clinic in a 12-month period during the outbreak, using ZIKV-specific RT-PCR and anti-ZIKV Immunoglobulin M/G ELISA when symptomatic, and ELISA only for asymptomatic travellers, preferably from 20 days after the last exposure. All positive ELISA results were subject to confirmation by Virus Neutralization Testing. We estimated post-test probabilities of ZIKV in asymptomatic travellers.

RESULTS

Of 462 travellers, 227 reported symptoms and 235 did not. Asymptomatic travellers had similar baseline characteristics, but were younger (median age 31 vs. 33 years, p = 0.01) and had reproductive concerns more often (75.8% vs. 24.2%). ZIKV infection was confirmed in 49 cases: 46/227 (20.3%) were symptomatic and 3/235 (1.3%) asymptomatic. Rash (positive likelihood ratio (LRP) 5.6) and conjunctivitis (LRP 10.8) predicted ZIKV infection. The post-test probability of a negative ELISA-result at 20-25 days was below 0.1%.

CONCLUSION

ZIKV infection was frequent in symptomatic, but not in asymptomatic travellers. We consider negative ELISA results at 20-25 days after exposure a safe strategy to rule out ZIKV infection. Testing for ZIKV-specific antibodies within this timeframe could be particularly valuable in the management of returning travellers who wish to conceive.

Sexual transmission of Zika virus and other flaviviruses: A living systematic review

BACKGROUND

Health authorities in the United States and Europe reported an increasing number of travel-associated episodes of sexual transmission of Zika virus (ZIKV) following the 2015-2017 ZIKV outbreak. This, and other scientific evidence, suggests that ZIKV is sexually transmissible in addition to having its primary mosquito-borne route. The objective of this systematic review and evidence synthesis was to clarify the epidemiology of sexually transmitted ZIKV.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We performed a living (i.e., continually updated) systematic review of evidence published up to 15 April 2018 about sexual transmission of ZIKV and other arthropod-borne flaviviruses in humans and other animals. We defined 7 key elements of ZIKV sexual transmission for which we extracted data: (1) rectal and vaginal susceptibility to infection, (2) incubation period following sexual transmission, (3) serial interval between the onset of symptoms in a primary and secondary infected individuals, (4) duration of infectiousness, (5) reproduction number, (6) probability of transmission per sex act, and (7) transmission rate. We identified 1,227 unique publications and included 128, of which 77 presented data on humans and 51 presented data on animals. Laboratory experiments confirm that rectal and vaginal mucosae are susceptible to infection with ZIKV and that the testis serves as a reservoir for the virus in animal models. Sexual transmission was reported in 36 human couples: 34/36 of these involved male-to-female sexual transmission. The median serial symptom onset interval in 15 couples was 12 days (interquartile range: 10-14.5); the maximum was 44 days. We found evidence from 2 prospective cohorts that ZIKV RNA is present in human semen with a median duration of 34 days (95% CI: 28-41 days) and 35 days (no CI given) (low certainty of evidence, according to GRADE). Aggregated data about detection of ZIKV RNA from 37 case reports and case series indicate a median duration of detection of ZIKV of 40 days (95% CI: 30-49 days) and maximum duration of 370 days in semen. In human vaginal fluid, median duration was 14 days (95% CI: 7-20 days) and maximum duration was 37 days (very low certainty). Infectious virus in human semen was detected for a median duration of 12 days (95% CI: 1-21 days) and maximum of 69 days. Modelling studies indicate that the reproduction number is below 1 (very low certainty). Evidence was lacking to estimate the incubation period or the transmission rate. Evidence on sexual transmission of other flaviviruses was scarce. The certainty of the evidence is limited because of uncontrolled residual bias.

CONCLUSIONS

The living systematic review and sexual transmission framework allowed us to assess evidence about the risk of sexual transmission of ZIKV. ZIKV is more likely transmitted from men to women than from women to men. For other flaviviruses, evidence of sexual transmissibility is still absent. Taking into account all available data about the duration of detection of ZIKV in culture and from the serial interval, our findings suggest that the infectious period for sexual transmission of ZIKV is shorter than estimates from the earliest post-outbreak studies, which were based on reverse transcription PCR alone.

Genomic Epidemiology Reconstructs the Introduction and Spread of Zika Virus in Central America and Mexico

The Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in the Americas established ZIKV as a major public health threat and uncovered its association with severe diseases, including microcephaly. However, genetic epidemiology in some at-risk regions, particularly Central America and Mexico, remains limited. We report 61 ZIKV genomes from this region, generated using metagenomic sequencing with ZIKV-specific enrichment, and combine phylogenetic, epidemiological, and environmental data to reconstruct ZIKV transmission. These analyses revealed multiple independent ZIKV introductions to Central America and Mexico. One introduction, likely from Brazil via Honduras, led to most infections and the undetected spread of ZIKV through the region from late 2014. Multiple lines of evidence indicate biannual peaks of ZIKV transmission in the region, likely driven by varying local environmental conditions for mosquito vectors and herd immunity. The spatial and temporal heterogeneity of ZIKV transmission in Central America and Mexico challenges arbovirus surveillance and disease control measures.

Improving early epidemiological assessment of emerging Aedes-transmitted epidemics using historical data

Model-based epidemiological assessment is useful to support decision-making at the beginning of an emerging Aedes-transmitted outbreak. However, early forecasts are generally unreliable as little information is available in the first few incidence data points. Here, we show how past Aedes-transmitted epidemics help improve these predictions. The approach was applied to the 2015-2017 Zika virus epidemics in three islands of the French West Indies, with historical data including other Aedes-transmitted diseases (chikungunya and Zika) in the same and other locations. Hierarchical models were used to build informative a priori distributions on the reproduction ratio and the reporting rates. The accuracy and sharpness of forecasts improved substantially when these a priori distributions were used in models for prediction. For example, early forecasts of final epidemic size obtained without historical information were 3.3 times too high on average (range: 0.2 to 5.8) with respect to the eventual size, but were far closer (1.1 times the real value on average, range: 0.4 to 1.5) using information on past CHIKV epidemics in the same places. Likewise, the 97.5% upper bound for maximal incidence was 15.3 times (range: 2.0 to 63.1) the actual peak incidence, and became much sharper at 2.4 times (range: 1.3 to 3.9) the actual peak incidence with informative a priori distributions. Improvements were more limited for the date of peak incidence and the total duration of the epidemic. The framework can adapt to all forecasting models at the early stages of emerging Aedes-transmitted outbreaks.

Evaluating Vaccination Strategies for Zika Virus in the Americas

Background

Mosquito-borne and sexually transmitted Zika virus has become widespread across Central and South America and the Caribbean. Many Zika vaccine candidates are under active development.

Objective

To quantify the effect of Zika vaccine prioritization of females aged 9 to 49 years, followed by males aged 9 to 49 years, on incidence of prenatal Zika infections.

Design

A compartmental model of Zika transmission between mosquitoes and humans was developed and calibrated to empirical estimates of country-specific mosquito density. Mosquitoes were stratified into susceptible, exposed, and infected groups; humans were stratified into susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered, and vaccinated groups. Age-specific fertility rates, Zika sexual transmission, and country-specific demographics were incorporated.

Setting

34 countries and territories in the Americas with documented Zika outbreaks.

Target Population

Males and females aged 9 to 49 years.

Intervention

Age- and sex-targeted immunization using a Zika vaccine with 75% efficacy.

Measurements

Annual prenatal Zika infections.

Results

For a base-case vaccine efficacy of 75% and vaccination coverage of 90%, immunizing females aged 9 to 49 years (the World Health Organization target population) would reduce the incidence of prenatal infections by at least 94%, depending on the country-specific Zika attack rate. In regions where an outbreak is not expected for at least 10 years, vaccination of women aged 15 to 29 years is more efficient than that of women aged 30 years or older.

Limitation

Population-level modeling may not capture all local and neighborhood-level heterogeneity in mosquito abundance or Zika incidence.

Conclusion

A Zika vaccine of moderate to high efficacy may virtually eliminate prenatal infections through a combination of direct protection and transmission reduction. Efficiency of age-specific targeting of Zika vaccination depends on the timing of future outbreaks.

Primary Funding Source

National Institutes of Health.

First outbreak of Zika virus in the continental United States: a modelling analysis

Since 2015, Zika virus (ZIKV) has spread throughout Latin and Central America. This emerging infectious disease has been causing considerable public health concern because of severe neurological complications, especially in newborns after congenital infections. In July 2016, the first outbreak in the continental United States was identified in the Wynwood neighbourhood of Miami-Dade County, Florida. In this work, we investigated transmission dynamics using a mathematical model calibrated to observed data on mosquito abundance and symptomatic human infections. We found that, although ZIKV transmission was detected in July 2016, the first importation may have occurred between March and mid-April. The estimated highest value for R₀ was 2.73 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.65–4.17); the attack rate was 14% (95% CI: 5.6–27.4%), with 15 (95% CI: 6–29) pregnant women involved and a 12% probability of infected blood donations. Vector control avoided 60% of potential infections. According to our results, it is likely that further ZIKV outbreaks identified in other areas of Miami-Dade County were seeded by commuters to Wynwood rather than by additional importation from international travellers. Our study can help prepare future outbreak-related interventions in European areas where competent mosquitoes for ZIKV transmission are already established.

Maternal Zika Virus Disease Severity, Virus Load, Prior Dengue Antibodies, and Their Relationship to Birth Outcomes

Background

Congenital Zika virus (ZIKV) syndrome is a newly identified condition resulting from infection during pregnancy. We analyzed outcome data from a mother-infant cohort in Rio de Janeiro in order to assess whether clinical severity of maternal ZIKV infection was associated with maternal virus load, prior dengue antibodies, or abnormal pregnancy/infant outcomes.

Methods

A clinical severity assessment tool was developed based on duration of fever, severity of rash, multisystem involvement, and duration of symptoms during ZIKV infection. ZIKV-RNA load was quantified by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) cycles in blood/ urine. Dengue immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies were measured at baseline. Adverse outcomes were defined as fetal loss or a live infant with grossly abnormal clinical or brain imaging findings. Regression models were used to study potential associations.

Results

131 ZIKV-PCR positive pregnant women were scored for clinical disease severity, 6 (4.6%) had mild disease, 98 (74.8%) had moderate disease, and 27 (20.6%) severe manifestations of ZIKV infection. There were 58 (46.4%) abnormal outcomes with 9 fetal losses (7.2%) in 125 pregnancies. No associations were found between: disease severity and abnormal outcomes (P = .961; odds ratio [OR]: 1.00; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.796-1.270); disease severity and viral load (P = .994); viral load and adverse outcomes (P = .667; OR: 1.02; 95% CI: 0.922-1.135); or existence of prior dengue antibodies (88% subjects) with severity score, ZIKV-RNA load or adverse outcomes (P = .667; OR: 0.78; 95% CI: 0.255-2.397).

Conclusions

Congenital ZIKV syndrome does not appear to be associated with maternal disease severity, ZIKV-RNA load at time of infection or existence of prior dengue antibodies.

Zika virus RNA polymerase chain reaction on the utility channel of a commercial nucleic acid testing system

BACKGROUND

Several countries have implemented safety strategies to reduce the risk of Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission through blood transfusion. These strategies have included nucleic acid amplification testing (NAT) of blood donations. In this study, a new real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay including internal control for the detection of ZIKV on the cobas omni Utility Channel (UC) on the cobas 6800 system is presented.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

PCR conditions and primer/probe concentrations were optimized on the LightCycler 480 instrument. Optimized conditions were transferred to the cobas omni UC on the cobas 6800 system. Subsequently, the limit of detection (LOD) in plasma and urine, genotype inclusivity, specificity, cross-reactivity, and clinical sensitivity were determined.

RESULTS

The 95% LOD of the ZIKV PCR assay on the cobas 6800 system was 23.0 IU/mL (95% confidence interval [CI], 16.5-37.5) in plasma and 24.5 IU/mL (95% CI, 13.4-92.9) in urine. The assay detected African and Asian lineages of ZIKV. The specificity was 100%. The clinical concordance between the newly developed ZIKV PCR assay and the investigational Roche cobas Zika NAT test was 83% (24/29).

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a sensitive ZIKV PCR assay on the cobas omni UC on the cobas 6800 system. The assay can be used for large-scale screening of blood donations for ZIKV or for testing of blood donors returning from areas with ZIKV to avoid temporal deferral. This study also demonstrates that the cobas omni UC on the cobas 6800 system can be used for in-house-developed PCR assays.

Kay SI, Mittal J, Bandstra ES, Younis RT, Chapagain P, Jayaweera DT, Liu XZ. Zika Virus: An Emerging Global Health Threat

Zika virus (ZIKV) is an emerging healthcare threat. The presence of the mosquito Aedes species across South and Central America in combination with complementary climates have incited an epidemic of locally transmitted cases of ZIKV infection in Brazil. As one of the most significant current public health concerns in the Americas, ZIKV epidemic has been a cause of alarm due to its known and unknown complications. At this point, there has been a clear association between ZIKV infection and severe clinical manifestations in both adults and neonates, including but not limited to neurological deficits such as Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) and microcephaly, respectively. The gravity of the fetal anomalies linked to ZIKV vertical transmission from the mother has prompted a discussion on whether to include ZIKV as a formal member of the TORCH [Toxoplasma gondii, other, rubella virus, cytomegalovirus (CMV), and herpes] family of pathogens known to breach placental barriers and cause congenital disease in the fetus. The mechanisms of these complex phenotypes have yet to be fully described. As such, diagnostic tools are limited and no effective modalities are available to treat ZIKV. This article will review the recent advancements in understanding the pathogenesis of ZIKV infection as well as diagnostic tests available to detect the infection. Due to the increase in incidence of ZIKV infections, there is an immediate need to develop new diagnostic tools and novel preventive as well as therapeutic modalities based on understanding the molecular mechanisms underlying the disease.

Epidemiological and ecological determinants of Zika virus transmission in an urban setting

The Zika virus has emerged as a global public health concern. Its rapid geographic expansion is attributed to the success of Aedes mosquito vectors, but local epidemiological drivers are still poorly understood. Feira de Santana played a pivotal role in the Chikungunya epidemic in Brazil and was one of the first urban centres to report Zika infections. Using a climate-driven transmission model and notified Zika case data, we show that a low observation rate and high vectorial capacity translated into a significant attack rate during the 2015 outbreak, with a subsequent decline in 2016 and fade-out in 2017 due to herd-immunity. We find a potential Zika-related, low risk for microcephaly per pregnancy, but with significant public health impact given high attack rates. The balance between the loss of herd-immunity and viral re-importation will dictate future transmission potential of Zika in this urban setting.

Mosquitoes can transmit viruses that cause Zika, dengue and several other tropical diseases that affect humans. Zika virus usually causes mild symptoms, but it is thought that infection during pregnancy can lead to brain abnormalities, including microcephaly, where babies are born with an abnormally small head. Recent studies have shed light on how the Zika virus spread from Africa to reach South America, the Caribbean and North America. However, much less is known about the ecological factors that contribute to the spread of the virus within towns, cities and other local areas.

In 2015, Brazil was struck by an outbreak of the Zika virus that led to an international public health emergency. Lourenço et al. used a mathematical model to explore the local conditions within Feira de Santana (a major urban center in Brazil) that contributed to the outbreak. The model took into account numerous factors, including temperature, humidity, rainfall and the mosquito life-cycle, which made it possible to reconstruct the history of the virus over the past three years and to make projections for the next decades.

It revealed that most of the infections occured during 2015, with approximately 65% of the population infected. The incidences of new infections declined in 2016, as increasing numbers of local people had already been exposed to the virus and became immune. Temperature and humidity appeared to have played a critical role in sustaining the mosquito population carrying the Zika virus.

Further analysis suggests that the risk of Zika virus causing microcephaly is very low – only 0.3–0.5% of the pregnant women in Feira de Santana who were infected with Zika gave birth to a baby with the condition. What therefore makes Zika a public health concern is the combination of a low risk with very high infection rates, which can affect a large number of pregnancies.

This study will help researchers and policy makers to predict how the Zika virus will behave in the coming years. It also highlights the limitations and successes of the current system of surveillance. Moreover, it will help to identify critical time periods in the year when mosquito control strategies should be implemented to limit the spread of this virus. In future, this could help shape new local strategies to control Zika virus, dengue and other diseases carried by mosquitoes.

Asymmetric percolation drives a double transition in sexual contact networks

Zika virus (ZIKV) exhibits unique transmission dynamics in that it is concurrently spread by a mosquito vector and through sexual contact. Due to the highly asymmetric durations of infectiousness between males and females-it is estimated that males are infectious for periods up to 10 times longer than females-we show that this sexual component of ZIKV transmission behaves akin to an asymmetric percolation process on the network of sexual contacts. We exactly solve the properties of this asymmetric percolation on random sexual contact networks and show that this process exhibits two epidemic transitions corresponding to a core-periphery structure. This structure is not present in the underlying contact networks, which are not distinguishable from random networks, and emerges because of the asymmetric percolation. We provide an exact analytical description of this double transition and discuss the implications of our results in the context of ZIKV epidemics. Most importantly, our study suggests a bias in our current ZIKV surveillance, because the community most at risk is also one of the least likely to get tested.

Mitigation of the threat posed to transfusion by donors traveling to Zika-affected areas: a Canadian risk-based approach

BACKGROUND

The recent spread of the Zika virus to the Americas and the recognition that it can cause severe disease in the developing fetus has prompted the adoption of measures to mitigate the risk that this virus might pose to transfusion safety. In nonendemic countries, the risk to transfusion results from donors traveling to an endemic region. Canada implemented a 21-day temporary deferral for prospective donors who traveled to such regions. We present the rationale for this policy, including a quantitative risk assessment supported by a Monte Carlo simulation.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

The model considered the following parameters, each with specified values and ranges: the probability that a donor recently returned from a Zika-endemic region, the duration of travel to this region, the daily risk of acquiring Zika while in an endemic region, and the incubation and viremic periods. We ran the simulation 20 times, each with 10 million iterations.

RESULTS

In the absence of any travel deferral, 32 donors (range, 20-46 donors) would be able to donate while still being at risk of transmitting Zika, corresponding to a rate of 1:312,500 (range, 1:217,000 to 1:500,000). None of these donors would be viremic beyond 21 days after returning from their travel, with a risk estimated at less than 1:200,000,000.

CONCLUSIONS

A 21-day temporary travel deferral offers an extremely wide margin of safety for the possible transmission of Zika by a donation obtained from someone who recently returned from a country where the virus is circulating.

Knowledge and perceptions about Zika virus in a Middle East country

BACKGROUND

Zika virus, an emerging serious infectious disease, is a threat to persons living or travelling to regions where it is currently endemic, and also to contacts of infected individuals. The aim of this study was to assess knowledge about this new public health threat to persons residing in a Middle Eastern country.

METHODS

We conducted a survey at several international universities in Qatar to assess knowledge and awareness about this disease. An adapted version of the survey was also conducted using online channels from Qatar.

RESULTS

The median age of the 446 participants, was 25 years, 280 (63%) were females, and 32% were from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) or other Middle East countries. Based upon their knowledge about availability of a vaccine, role of mosquitoes and other modes of transmission, and disease complications, we classified respondent's knowledge as "poor" (66%), "basic" (27%) or "broad" (7%). Forty-five (16%) persons with poor knowledge considered themselves to be well-informed.

CONCLUSIONS

This report from a sample of persons associated with Middle East educational complex, reveals inadequate knowledge about Zika virus, a serious emerging infectious disease. Although few cases have been reported from the region, future cases are possible, since this area is a transit hub connecting currently infected regions to North America, Europe and Asia. As a preventive measure, an educational program about Zika virus would be valuable, especially for individuals or family members travelling to afflicted regions.