Timing of influenza A(H5N1) in poultry and humans and seasonal influenza activity worldwide, 2004-2013

Avian Influenza A (H5N1) Outbreak 2024 in Cambodia: Worries Over the Possible Spread of the Virus to Other Asian Nations and the Strategic Outlook for its Control

Asia has been alarmed by the resurgence of avian influenza A (H5N1) in Cambodia in 2024. H5N1 could be swiftly transmitted by wild birds to poultry populations along their migration route via infection. Circulation of endemic H5N1 in Asian poultry facilitates recurrent human transmission. Cambodia's role as a reservoir heightens the potential dangers of uncoordinated containment and surveillance across Southeast Asia. This correspondence addresses the risk factors, seasonal patterns, transmission dynamics, and potential pathways for the global dissemination of H5N1. This underscores the criticality of supervising regional initiatives aimed at eliminating the virus from poultry and humans, before its potential escalation into a deadly influenza pandemic across Asia.

A computational approach to design a multiepitope vaccine against H5N1 virus

Since 1997, highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses, such as H5N1, have been recognized as a possible pandemic hazard to men and the poultry business. The rapid rate of mutation of H5N1 viruses makes the whole process of designing vaccines extremely challenging. Here, we used an in silico approach to design a multi-epitope vaccine against H5N1 influenza A virus using hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) antigens. B-cell epitopes, Cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) and Helper T lymphocyte (HTL) were predicted via IEDB, NetMHC-4 and NetMHCII-2.3 respectively. Two adjuvants consisting of Human β-defensin-3 (HβD-3) along with pan HLA DR-binding epitope (PADRE) have been chosen to induce more immune response. Linkers including KK, AAY, HEYGAEALERAG, GPGPGPG and double EAAAK were utilized to link epitopes and adjuvants. This construct encodes a protein having 350 amino acids and 38.46 kDa molecular weight. Antigenicity of ~ 1, the allergenicity of non-allergen, toxicity of negative and solubility of appropriate were confirmed through Vaxigen, AllerTOP, ToxDL and DeepSoluE, respectively. The 3D structure of H5N1 was refined and validated with a Z-Score of - 0.87 and an overall Ramachandran of 99.7%. Docking analysis showed H5N1 could interact with TLR7 (docking score of - 374.08 and by 4 hydrogen bonds) and TLR8 (docking score of - 414.39 and by 3 hydrogen bonds). Molecular dynamics simulations results showed RMSD and RMSF of 0.25 nm and 0.2 for H5N1-TLR7 as well as RMSD and RMSF of 0.45 nm and 0.4 for H5N1-TLR8 complexes, respectively. Molecular Mechanics Poisson-Boltzmann Surface Area (MM/PBSA) confirmed stability and continuity of interaction between H5N1-TLR7 with the total binding energy of - 29.97 kJ/mol and H5N1-TLR8 with the total binding energy of - 23.9 kJ/mol. Investigating immune response simulation predicted evidence of the ability to stimulate T and B cells of the immunity system that shows the merits of this H5N1 vaccine proposed candidate for clinical trials.

The role of vaccination and environmental factors on outbreaks of high pathogenicity avian influenza H5N1 in Bangladesh

High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks continue to wreak havoc on the global poultry industry and threaten the health of wild bird populations, with sporadic spillover in humans and other mammals, resulting in widespread calls to vaccinate poultry. Bangladesh has been vaccinating poultry since 2012, presenting a prime opportunity to study the effects of vaccination on HPAI H5N1circulation in both poultry and wild birds. We investigated the efficacy of vaccinating commercial poultry against HPAI H5N1 along with climatic and socio-economic factors considered potential drivers of HPAI H5N1 outbreak risk in Bangladesh. Using a multivariate modeling approach, we estimated that the rate of outbreaks was 18 times higher before compared to after vaccination, with winter months having a three times higher chance of outbreaks than summer months. Variables resulting in small but significant increases in outbreak rate were relatively low ambient temperatures for the time of year, literacy rate, chicken and duck density, crop density, and presence of highways; this may be attributable to low temperatures supporting viral survival outside the host, higher literacy driving reporting rate, density of the host reservoir, and spread of the virus through increased connectivity. Despite the substantial impact of vaccination on outbreaks, we note that HPAI H5N1 is still enzootic in Bangladesh; vaccinated poultry flocks have high rates of H5N1 prevalence, and spillover to wild birds has increased. Vaccination in Bangladesh thus bears the risk of supporting "silent spread," where the vaccine only provides protection against disease and not also infection. Our findings underscore that poultry vaccination can be part of holistic HPAI mitigation strategies when accompanied by monitoring to avoid silent spread.

Determinants for the presence of avian influenza virus in live bird markets in Bangladesh: Towards an easy fix of a looming one health issue

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N1 endangers poultry, wildlife, and human health and is enzootic in large parts of Asia, with live bird markets (LBMs) as putative hotspots for their maintenance, amplification, and spread. To mitigate the extent of these and other avian influenza viruses (AIV) of concern, we aimed to increase our quantitative understanding of the factors determining the presence of avian influenza virus in LBM stalls. Between 2016 and 2017, we collected fecal or offal samples from 1008 stalls in 113 LBMs across the Dhaka and Rajshahi districts in Bangladesh. For each stall, samples were pooled and tested for the AIV matrix gene, followed by H5 and H9 subtyping using rRT-PCR. We detected Influenza A viral RNA in 49% of the stalls. Of the AIV positive samples, 52% and 24% were determined to be H5 and H9 viruses, respectively, which are both subtypes of considerable health concern. We used generalized linear mixed effect modelling to study AIV presence in individual stalls within LBMs as a function of 13 out of the 20 risk factors identified by FAO. We found that small and feasible improvements in cleaning and disinfection frequency, installing running water in stalls, and not mixing different breeds of chicken in the same cages had large impacts on the presence of AIV in stalls (Odds ratios 0.03-0.05). Next, cleaning vehicles used in poultry transport, not selling waterfowl with chickens in the same stall, buying stock directly from commercial farms, separating sick birds from healthy ones, and avoiding access by wild birds like house crows, also had major effects on lowering the risk of stalls having AIV (Odds ratios 0.16-0.33). These findings can be directly used in developing practical and affordable measures to reduce the prevalence of AIV in LBMs. Also, in settings with limited resources like Bangladesh, such mitigation may significantly contribute to reducing AIV circulation amongst poultry and spillover to wildlife and humans.

Potential risk zones and climatic factors influencing the occurrence and persistence of avian influenza viruses in the environment of live bird markets in Bangladesh

Live bird markets (LBMs) are critical for poultry trade in many developing countries that are regarded as hotspots for the prevalence and contamination of avian influenza viruses (AIV). Therefore, we conducted weekly longitudinal environmental surveillance in LBMs to determine annual cyclic patterns of AIV subtypes, environmental risk zones, and the role of climatic factors on the AIV presence and persistence in the environment of LBM in Bangladesh. From January 2018 to March 2020, we collected weekly fecal and offal swab samples from each LBM and tested using rRT-PCR for the M gene and subtyped for H5, H7, and H9. We used Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) approaches to account for repeated observations over time to correlate the AIV prevalence and potential risk factors and the negative binomial and Poisson model to investigate the role of climatic factors on environmental contamination of AIV at the LBM. Over the study period, 37.8% of samples tested AIV positive, 18.8% for A/H5, and A/H9 was, for 15.4%. We found the circulation of H5, H9, and co-circulation of H5 and H9 in the environmental surfaces year-round. The Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) model reveals a distinct seasonal pattern in transmitting AIV and H5. Specifically, certain summer months exhibited a substantial reduction of risk up to 70-90% and 93-94% for AIV and H5 contamination, respectively. The slaughtering zone showed a significantly higher risk of contamination with H5, with a three-fold increase in risk compared to bird-holding zones. From the negative binomial model, we found that climatic factors like temperature and relative humidity were also significantly associated with weekly AIV circulation. An increase in temperature and relative humidity decreases the risk of AIV circulation. Our study underscores the significance of longitudinal environmental surveillance for identifying potential risk zones to detect H5 and H9 virus co-circulation and seasonal transmission, as well as the imperative for immediate interventions to reduce AIV at LBMs in Bangladesh. We recommend adopting a One Health approach to integrated AIV surveillance across animal, human, and environmental interfaces in order to prevent the epidemic and pandemic of AIV.

Reported Global Avian Influenza Detections Among Humans and Animals During 2013-2022: Comprehensive Review and Analysis of Available Surveillance Data

BACKGROUND

Avian influenza (AI) virus detections occurred frequently in 2022 and continue to pose a health, economic, and food security risk. The most recent global analysis of official reports of animal outbreaks and human infections with all reportable AI viruses was published almost a decade ago. Increased or renewed reports of AI viruses, especially high pathogenicity H5N8 and H5N1 in birds and H5N1, H5N8, and H5N6 in humans globally, have established the need for a comprehensive review of current global AI virus surveillance data to assess the pandemic risk of AI viruses.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to provide an analysis of global AI animal outbreak and human case surveillance information from the last decade by describing the circulating virus subtypes, regions and temporal trends in reporting, and country characteristics associated with AI virus outbreak reporting in animals; surveillance and reporting gaps for animals and humans are identified.

METHODS

We analyzed AI virus infection reports among animals and humans submitted to animal and public health authorities from January 2013 to June 2022 and compared them with reports from January 2005 to December 2012. A multivariable regression analysis was used to evaluate associations between variables of interest and reported AI virus animal outbreaks.

RESULTS

From 2013 to 2022, 52.2% (95/182) of World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) Member Countries identified 34 AI virus subtypes during 21,249 outbreaks. The most frequently reported subtypes were high pathogenicity AI H5N1 (10,079/21,249, 47.43%) and H5N8 (6722/21,249, 31.63%). A total of 10 high pathogenicity AI and 6 low pathogenicity AI virus subtypes were reported to the WOAH for the first time during 2013-2022. AI outbreaks in animals occurred in 26 more Member Countries than reported in the previous 8 years. Decreasing World Bank income classification was significantly associated with decreases in reported AI outbreaks (P<.001-.02). Between January 2013 and June 2022, 17/194 (8.8%) World Health Organization (WHO) Member States reported 2000 human AI virus infections of 10 virus subtypes. H7N9 (1568/2000, 78.40%) and H5N1 (254/2000, 12.70%) viruses accounted for the most human infections. As many as 8 of these 17 Member States did not report a human case prior to 2013. Of 1953 human cases with available information, 74.81% (n=1461) had a known animal exposure before onset of illness. The median time from illness onset to the notification posted on the WHO event information site was 15 days (IQR 9-30 days; mean 24 days). Seasonality patterns of animal outbreaks and human infections with AI viruses were very similar, occurred year-round, and peaked during November through May.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis suggests that AI outbreaks are more frequently reported and geographically widespread than in the past. Global surveillance gaps include inconsistent reporting from all regions and human infection reporting delays. Continued monitoring for AI virus outbreaks in animals and human infections with AI viruses is crucial for pandemic preparedness.

Spatio-temporal distribution & seasonality of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 & H5N8 outbreaks in India, 2006-2021

Background & objectives

The highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 and H5N8 viruses have been one of the leading causes of avian diseases worldwide, resulting in severe economic losses and posing potential zoonotic risk. There are no reports on the correlation of the seasonality of H5N1 and H5N8 viruses with the migratory bird season in India, along with the species affected. The present report describes the distribution and seasonality of HPAI outbreaks in India from 2006 to 2021.

Methods

The data on the occurrence and locations of outbreaks in India and affected bird species were collated from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations database and grouped by month and year. The distribution and seasonality of HPAI H5N1 and H5N8 viruses were analyzed.

Results

A total of 284 H5N1 outbreaks were reported since 2006, with a surge in 2021. The initial outbreaks of H5N1 were predominantly in poultry. Since 2016, 57 outbreaks of H5N8 were also reported, predominantly in wild birds. Most of the outbreaks of HPAI were reported from post monsoon onwards till pre-summer season (i.e. between October and March) with their peak in winter, in January. Apart from poultry, the bird species such as owl, Indian peafowl, lesser adjutant, crows and wild migratory birds such as demoiselle crane, northern pintail and bar-headed goose were positive for HPAI.

Interpretation & conclusions

Such studies on the seasonality of HPAI outbreaks would help in the development of prevention and control strategies. The recent human infections of H5N1 and H9N2 viruses highlight the need to strengthen surveillance in wild, resident, migratory birds and in poultry along with One Health studies in India.

Performance of discrete wavelet transform-based method in the detection of influenza outbreaks in Iran: An ecological study

Background and Aim

Timely detection of outbreaks is one of the main purposes of the health surveillance system. The presence of appropriate methods in the detection of outbreaks can have an important role in the timely detection of outbreaks. Because of the importance of this issue, this study aimed to assess the performance of discrete wavelet transform (DWT) based methods in detecting influenza outbreaks in Iran from January 2010 to January 2020.

Methods

All registered influenza-positive virus cases in Iran from January 2010 to January 2010 were obtained from the FluNet web base tool, the World Health Organization website. The combination method that includes DWT and Shewhart control chart was used in this study. All analyses were performed using MATLAB software version 2018a Stata software version 15.

Results

The Mean ± SD and median of reported influenza cases from January 2010 to January 2020 was 36 ± 108 and four cases per week. The combination of the DWT and Shewhart control chart with K = 0.25 had the most sensitivity. The most specificity in the detection of nonoutbreak days was seen in the combination of DWT and Shewhart control chart with K = 1.5, K = 1.75, and K = 2, respectively. The combination of DWT and Shewhart control chart with K = 0.5 had the best performance in the detection of outbreaks (sensitivity = 0.64, specificity: 0.90, Youden index: 0.54, and area under the curve [AUC]: 0.77).

Conclusion

The DWT-based method in detecting influenza outbreaks has acceptable performance, but it is recommended that this method's performance be assessed in detecting outbreaks of other infectious diseases.

Potential Impact of Environmental Pollution by Human Antivirals on Avian Influenza Virus Evolution

Antiviral (AV) drugs are the main line of defense against pandemic influenza. However, different administration policies are applied in countries with different stocks of AV drugs. These policies lead to different occurrences of drug metabolites in the aquatic environment, altering animal behavior with evolutionary consequences on viruses. The aim of this study was to investigate the potential impact of environmental pollution by human antivirals, such as oseltamivir carboxylate (OC), on the evolutionary rate of avian influenza. We used NA, HA, NP, and MP viral segments from two groups of neighboring countries sharing migratory routes of wild birds and characterized by different AV stockpiles. BEAST analyses were performed using the uncorrelated lognormal clock evolutionary model and the Bayesian skyline tree prior model. The ratios between the rate of evolution of the NA gene and the HA, NP, and MP segments were considered. The two groups of countries were compared by analyzing the differences in the ratio distributions. Our analyses highlighted a possible different behavior in the evolution of H5N1 2.3 clade viral strains when OC environmental pollution is present. In conclusion, the widespread consumption of antivirals and their presence in wastewater could influence the selective pressure on viruses.

Avian influenza (H5N1) virus, epidemiology and its effects on backyard poultry in Indonesia: a review

Avian influenza (AI) is a zoonotic viral endemic disease that affects poultry, swine, and mammals, including humans. Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is caused by influenza type A virus subtypes H5, and H7 which are naturally carried by a wild bird and often affect domestic poultry. Avian influenza (AI) is a major problem worldwide that causes significant economic losses in the poultry sector. Since 2003, the widespread H5N1 HPAI in poultry has led to high mortalities resulting in huge economic losses in the poultry sector in Indonesia. Domestic poultry is a key source of income that contributes to economic growth, both directly and indirectly, by reducing poverty among the people living in rural communities. Furthermore, in many developing countries, including Indonesia, rural people meet a portion of their food needs through backyard poultry. Nevertheless, this sector is strongly affected by biosecurity hazards, particularly in Indonesia by HPAI infections. Avian influenza (AI), subtype H5N1 has zoonotic significance, posing major risks to public health and poultry. Due to close interaction between wild migratory birds and ducks, the domestic poultry sector in Indonesia is directly affected by this virus. This virus continues to be ubiquitous in Indonesia as a result of the unpredictable mutations produced by antigenic drift and shift, which can persist from a few days to several years. In this review, the epidemiology and impact, of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 subtype virus infection on backyard poultry in Indonesia were discussed.

Public health response to outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) among poultry in Northeast of Ireland, November 2021 to January 2022

OBJECTIVES

Human infections from highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 are associated with significant morbidity and mortality internationally. This study aimed to use routinely available data to examine key strategies to prevent H5N1 transmission to humans during outbreaks in poultry in residents in Cavan, Louth, Meath and Monaghan.

STUDY DESIGN

This was a cross-sectional based study.

METHODS

Data were obtained from Health Protection Team in the Department of Public Health, HSE North East and Department of Agriculture, Food, and the Marine (DAFM). Data entry and analyses were conducted using Microsoft Excel 2016.

RESULTS

The public health response focussed on contact tracing, monitoring and follow-up for household, farm workers and DAFM staff exposed on the affected farms. A total of 157 contact episodes were identified. Contacts received advice about active monitoring from their last exposure. A total of 111 (80%) were recommended chemoprophylaxis for exposure to HPAI H5N1. During the active monitoring period, two contacts developed acute respiratory symptoms, and parainfluenza 3 and rhino/enterovirus were identified in these individuals, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of this study, using routinely gathered data, highlighted that collaboration between public health and DAFM at regional and national levels was key to rapid response to these outbreaks of HPAI in domesticated poultry. In addition, the public health response appears to have been successful in preventing H5N1 transmission from domesticated birds to humans.

Seroprevalence of pullorum disease in chicken across mainland China from 1982 to 2020: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Pullorum disease (PD), caused by the bacterium Salmonella pullorum, severely threatens the health of chickens worldwide, especially in China, and generating concerns for public health safety. Greater awareness of the seroprevalence may facilitate the prevention and control of this disease. We conducted systematic review and meta-analysis on the seroprevalence of PD in chicken flocks across mainland China. The results show that the overall pooled estimates of PD seroprevalence in chicken flocks was 18.2%. Furthermore, during 38-year period the seroprevalence of PD was markedly high in all seven regions, being at least 14.9% in central China. Our results suggest PD was highly prevalent in autumn, followed by winter. Chickens older than 120 days (22.6%, CI₉₅: 14.5%-31.9%) had a significantly higher positive rate of PD than those <120 days in age (9.4%, CI₉₅: 3.7%-17.4%). Additionally, the rearing mode used is a risk factor associated with the seroprevalence of PD, it being considerably lower for caged chickens (13.7%, CI₉₅: 7.1%-22.0%) than free-range chickens (30.4%, CI₉₅: 17.3-45.4%). Our findings demonstrate that PD still poses a major threat to poultry industries in mainland China, and therefore comprehensive and stringent strategies are needed to prevent and control this disease.

Environmental factors and spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of the global outbreaks of the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1

The spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 has posed a major threat to global public health. Understanding the spatiotemporal outbreak characteristics and environmental factors of H5N1 outbreaks is of great significance for the establishment of effective prevention and control systems. The time and location of H5N1 outbreaks in poultry and wild birds officially confirmed by the World Organization for Animal Health from 2005 to 2019 were collected. Spatial autocorrelation analysis and multidistance spatial agglomeration analysis methods were used to analyze the global outbreak sites of H5N1. Combined with remote sensing data, the correlation between H5N1 outbreaks and environmental factors was analyzed using binary logistic regression methods. We analyzed the correlation between the H5N1 outbreak and environmental factors and finally made a risk prediction for the global H5N1 outbreaks. The results show that the peak of the H5N1 outbreaks occurs in winter and spring. H5N1 outbreaks exhibit aggregation, and a weak aggregation phenomenon is noted on the scale close to 5000 km. Water distance, road distance, railway distance, wind speed, leaf area index (LAI), and specific humidity were protective factors for the outbreak of H5N1, and the odds ratio (OR) were 0.985, 0.989, 0.995, 0.717, 0.832, and 0.935, respectively. Temperature was a risk factor with an OR of 1.073. The significance of these ORs was greater than 95%. The global risk prediction map was obtained. Given that the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is spreading globally, the methods and results of this study can provide a reference for studying the spread of COVID-19.

Avian influenza (H5N1) virus, epidemiology and its effects on backyard poultry in Indonesia: a review

Avian influenza (AI) is a zoonotic viral endemic disease that affects poultry, swine, and mammals, including humans. Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is caused by influenza type A virus subtypes H5, and H7 which are naturally carried by a wild bird and often affect domestic poultry. Avian influenza (AI) is a major problem worldwide that causes significant economic losses in the poultry sector. Since 2003, the widespread H5N1 HPAI in poultry has led to high mortalities resulting in huge economic losses in the poultry sector in Indonesia. Domestic poultry is a key source of income that contributes to economic growth, both directly and indirectly, by reducing poverty among the people living in rural communities. Furthermore, in many developing countries, including Indonesia, rural people meet a portion of their food needs through backyard poultry. Nevertheless, this sector is strongly affected by biosecurity hazards, particularly in Indonesia by HPAI infections. Avian influenza (AI), subtype H5N1 has zoonotic significance, posing major risks to public health and poultry. Due to close interaction between wild migratory birds and ducks, the domestic poultry sector in Indonesia is directly affected by this virus. This virus continues to be ubiquitous in Indonesia as a result of the unpredictable mutations produced by antigenic drift and shift, which can persist from a few days to several years. In this review, the epidemiology and impact, of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 subtype virus infection on backyard poultry in Indonesia were discussed.

Risk Areas for Influenza A(H5) Environmental Contamination in Live Bird Markets, Dhaka, Bangladesh

We evaluated the presence of influenza A(H5) virus environmental contamination in live bird markets (LBMs) in Dhaka, Bangladesh. By using Bernoulli generalized linear models and multinomial logistic regression models, we quantified LBM-level factors associated with market work zone–specific influenza A(H5) virus contamination patterns. Results showed higher environmental contamination in LBMs that have wholesale and retail operations compared with retail-only markets (relative risk 0.69, 95% 0.51–0.93; p = 0.012) and in March compared with January (relative risk 2.07, 95% CI 1.44–2.96; p<0.001). Influenza A(H5) environmental contamination remains a public health problem in most LBMs in Dhaka, which underscores the need to implement enhanced biosecurity interventions in LBMs in Bangladesh.

Association of Biosecurity and Hygiene Practices with Environmental Contamination with Influenza A Viruses in Live Bird Markets, Bangladesh

In Bangladesh, live bird market environments are frequently contaminated with avian influenza viruses. Shop-level biosecurity practices might increase risk for environmental contamination. We sought to determine which shop-level biosecurity practices were associated with environmental contamination. We surveyed 800 poultry shops to describe biosecurity practices and collect environmental samples. Samples from 205 (26%) shops were positive for influenza A viral RNA, 108 (14%) for H9, and 60 (8%) for H5. Shops that slaughtered poultry, kept poultry overnight, remained open without rest days, had uneven muddy floors, held poultry on the floor, and housed sick and healthy poultry together were more frequently positive for influenza A viruses. Reported monthly cleaning seemed protective, but disinfection practices were not otherwise associated with influenza A virus detection. Slaughtering, keeping poultry overnight, weekly rest days, infrastructure, and disinfection practices could be targets for interventions to reduce environmental contamination.

Atypical Pneumonia: Definition, Causes, and Imaging Features

Pneumonia is among the most common causes of death worldwide. The epidemiologic and clinical heterogeneity of pneumonia results in challenges in diagnosis and treatment. There is inconsistency in the definition of the group of microorganisms that cause "atypical pneumonia." Nevertheless, the use of this term in the medical and radiologic literature is common. Among the causes of community-acquired pneumonia, atypical bacteria are responsible for approximately 15% of cases. Zoonotic and nonzoonotic bacteria, as well as viruses, have been considered among the causes of atypical pneumonia in a patient who is immunocompetent and have been associated with major community outbreaks of respiratory infection, with relevant implications in public health policies. Considering the difficulty of isolating atypical microorganisms and the significant overlap in clinical manifestations, a targeted empirical therapy is not possible. Imaging plays an important role in the diagnosis and management of atypical pneumonia, as in many cases its findings may first suggest the possibility of an atypical infection. Clarifying and unifying the definition of atypical pneumonia among the medical community, including radiologists, are of extreme importance. The prompt diagnosis and prevention of community spread of some atypical microorganisms can have a relevant impact on local, regional, and global health policies. ^©RSNA, 2021.

A conserved multi-epitope-based vaccine designed by targeting hemagglutinin protein of highly pathogenic avian H5 influenza viruses

The highly pathogenic avian H5N1 influenza viruses have been recognized as a potential pandemic threat to humans, and to the poultry industry since 1997. H5 viruses consist of a high mutation rate, so universal vaccine designing is very challenging. Here, we describe a vaccinomics approach to design a novel multi-epitope influenza vaccine, based on the highly conserved regions of surface glycoprotein, Hemagglutinin (HA). Initially, the HA protein sequences from Bangladeshi origin were retrieved and aligned by ClustalW. The sequences of 100% conserved regions extracted and analyzed to select the highest potential T-cell and B-cell epitope. The HTL and CTL analyses using IEDB tools showed that DVWTYNAELLVLMEN possesses the highest affinity with MHC class I and II alleles, and it has the highest population coverage. The docking simulation study suggests that this epitope has the potential to interact with both MHC class I and MHC class II. The B-cell epitope prediction provides a potential peptide, GAIAGFIEGGWQGM. We further retrieved HA sequences of 3950 avian and 250 human H5 isolates from several populations of the world, where H5 was an epidemic. Surprisingly, these epitopes are more than 98% conserved in those regions which indicate their potentiality as a conserved vaccine. We have proposed a multi-epitope vaccine using these sequences and assess its stability and potentiality to induce B-cell immunity. In vivo study is necessary to corroborate this epitope as a vaccine, however, setting forth groundwork for wet-lab studies essential to mitigate pandemic threats and provide cross-protection of both avian and humans against H5 influenza viruses.

Aberration detection in influenza trends in Iran by using cumulative sum chart and period regression

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to determine the alarm thresholds in influenza outbreaks and aberration detection in the influenza trend in Iran by using cumulative sum control chart (CUSUM) and period regression.

METHODS

We used the weekly reported influenza-positive (types A and B) cases from Iran between January 2015 and November 2019. The period regression model and CUSUM chart were used as detection algorithms to figure out the alarm thresholds.

RESULTS

The mean ± SD and the median (95% CI) of the determined threshold per week were 34.85 ± 15.29 and 28.30 (17.67-64.62). According to the period regression, there were nine epidemic periods of influenza from 2015 to 2019. By using the CUSUM and considering a different h (h is an appropriate value that leads to the desired estimation for upper control limit) for the calculation of the upper control limit, 88, 84, 73 and 67 weeks were determined as the epidemic period.

CONCLUSION

According to the current study, the incidence of influenza showed a cyclic pattern and the epidemic recurred each year. Understanding this cyclical pattern can help health policymakers launch prevention programs such as vaccination during certain months of the year.

Poultry farmer response to disease outbreaks in smallholder farming systems in southern Vietnam

Avian influenza outbreaks have been occurring on smallholder poultry farms in Asia for two decades. Farmer responses to these outbreaks can slow down or accelerate virus transmission. We used a longitudinal survey of 53 small-scale chicken farms in southern Vietnam to investigate the impact of outbreaks with disease-induced mortality on harvest rate, vaccination, and disinfection behaviors. We found that in small broiler flocks (≤16 birds/flock) the estimated probability of harvest was 56% higher when an outbreak occurred, and 214% higher if an outbreak with sudden deaths occurred in the same month. Vaccination and disinfection were strongly and positively correlated with the number of birds. Small-scale farmers – the overwhelming majority of poultry producers in low-income countries – tend to rely on rapid sale of birds to mitigate losses from diseases. As depopulated birds are sent to markets or trading networks, this reactive behavior has the potential to enhance onward transmission.

The past few decades have seen the circulation of avian influenza viruses increase in domesticated poultry, regularly creating outbreaks associated with heavy economic loss. In addition, these viruses can sometimes ‘jump’ into humans, potentially allowing new diseases – including pandemics – to emerge.

The Mekong river delta, in southern Vietnam, is one of the regions with the highest circulation of avian influenza. There, a large number of farmers practice poultry farming on a small scale, with limited investments in disease prevention such as vaccination or disinfection. Yet, it was unclear how the emergence of an outbreak could change the behavior of farmers.

To learn more, Delabouglise et al. monitored 53 poultry farms, with fewer than 1000 chickens per farm, monthly for over a year and a half. In particular, they tracked when outbreaks occurred on each farm, and how farmers reacted. Overall, poultry farms with more than 17 chickens were more likely to vaccinate their animals and use disinfection practices than smaller farms. However, disease outbreaks did not affect vaccination or disinfection practices.

When an outbreak occurred, farmers with fewer than 17 chickens tended to sell their animals earlier. For instance, they were 214% more likely to send their animals to market if an outbreak with sudden deaths occurred that month. Even if they do not make as much money selling immature individuals, this strategy may allow them to mitigate economical loss: they can sell animals that may die soon, saving on feeding costs and potentially avoiding further contamination. However, as animals were often sold alive in markets or to itinerant sellers, this practice increases the risk of spreading diseases further along the trade circuits.

These data could be most useful to regional animal health authorities, which have detailed knowledge of local farming systems and personal connections in the communities where they work. This can allow them to effect change. They could work with small poultry farmers to encourage them to adopt efficient disease management strategies. Ultimately, this could help control the spread of avian influenza viruses, and potentially help to avoid future pandemics.

Detecting influenza and emerging avian influenza virus by influenza and pneumonia surveillance systems in a large city in China, 2005 to 2016

Background

Detecting avian influenza virus has become an important public health strategy for controlling the emerging infectious disease.

Methods

The HIS (hospital information system) modified influenza surveillance system (ISS) and a newly built pneumonia surveillance system (PSS) were used to monitor the influenza viruses in Changsha City, China. The ISS was used to monitor outpatients in two sentinel hospitals and to detect mild influenza and avian influenza cases, and PSS was used to monitor inpatients in 49 hospitals and to detect severe and death influenza cases.

Results

From 2005 to 2016, there were 3,551,917 outpatients monitored by the ISS system, among whom 126,076 were influenza-like illness (ILI) cases, with the ILI proportion (ILI%) of 3.55%. After the HIS was used, the reported incident cases of ILI and ILI% were increased significantly. From March, 2009 to September, 2016, there were 5,491,560 inpatient cases monitored by the PSS system, among which 362,743 were pneumonia cases, with a proportion of 6.61%. Among pneumonia cases, about 10.55% (38,260/362,743) of cases were severe or death cases. The pneumonia incidence increased each year in the city. Among 15 avian influenza cases reported from January, 2005 to September, 2016, there were 26.7% (4/15) mild cases detected by the HIS-modified ISS system, while 60.0% (9/15) were severe or death cases detected by the PSS system. Two H5N1 severe cases were missed by the ISS system in January, 2009 when the PSS system was not available.

Conclusions

The HIS was able to improve the efficiency of the ISS for monitoring ILI and emerging avian influenza virus. However, the efficiency of the system needs to be verified in a wider area for a longer time span in China.

The Pattern of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 Outbreaks in South Asia

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 has caused severe illnesses in poultry and in humans. More than 15,000 outbreaks in domestic birds from 2005 to 2018 and 861 human cases from 2003 to 2019 were reported across the world to OIE (Office International des Epizooties) and WHO (World Health Organization), respectively. We reviewed and summarized the spatial and temporal distribution of HPAI outbreaks in South Asia. During January 2006 to June 2019, a total of 1063 H5N1 outbreaks in birds and 12 human cases for H5N1 infection were reported to OIE and WHO, respectively. H5N1 outbreaks were detected more in the winter season than the summer season (RR 5.11, 95% CI: 4.28-6.1). Commercial poultry were three times more likely to be infected with H5N1 than backyard poultry (RR 3.47, 95% CI: 2.99-4.01). The highest number of H5N1 outbreaks was reported in 2008, and the smallest numbers were reported in 2014 and 2015. Multiple subtypes of avian influenza viruses and multiple clades of H5N1 virus were detected. Early detection and reporting of HPAI viruses are needed to control and eliminate HPAI in South Asia.

Seasonal Activity of Influenza in Iran: Application of Influenza-like Illness Data from Sentinel Sites of Healthcare Centers during 2010 to 2015

This study aimed to predict seasonal influenza activity and detection of influenza outbreaks. Data of all registered cases (n = 53,526) of influenza-like illnesses (ILIs) from sentinel sites of healthcare centers in Iran were obtained from the FluNet web-based tool, World Health Organization (WHO), from 2010 to 2015. The status of the ILI activity was obtained from the FluNet and considered as the gold standard of the seasonal activity of influenza during the study period. The cumulative sum (CUSUM) as an outbreak detection method was used to predict the seasonal activity of influenza. Also, time series similarity between the ILI trend and CUSUM was assessed using the cross-correlogram. Of 7684 (14%) positive cases of influenza, about 71% were type A virus and 28% were type B virus. The majority of the outbreaks occurred in winter and autumn. Results of the cross-correlogram showed that there was a considerable similarity between time series graphs of the ILI cases and CUSUM values. However, the CUSUM algorithm did not have a good performance in the timely detection of influenza activity. Despite a considerable similarity between time series of the ILI cases and CUSUM algorithm in weekly lag, the seasonal activity of influenza in Iran could not be predicted by the CUSUM algorithm.

A novel I117T substitution in neuraminidase of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus conferring reduced susceptibility to oseltamivir and zanamivir

Occurrence of avian influenza (AI) with Neuraminidase (NA) mutations which confer reduced neuraminidase inhibitor (NAI) susceptibility has remained a cause of concern. The susceptibility to NAIs of 67 highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 viruses isolated during 2006-2012 in India was tested in phenotypic fluorescence-based NA inhibition assay, sequence analysis and in ovo. One isolate showed a novel NA I117T amino acid substitution (N2 numbering) and eight isolates showed previously known NAI-resistance marker mutations (I117V, E119D, N294S, total 9/67). The overall incidence of resistant variants was 13.4%. The novel I117T substitution reduced oseltamivir susceptibility by 18.6-fold and zanamivir susceptibility by 11.8-fold, compared to the wild type AI H5N1virus, thus showed cross-resistance to both oseltamivir and zanamivir in NA inhibition assays. However, the other two isolates with I117V substitution were sensitive to both the NAIs. In addition, the comparison of growth of the I117T and I117V variants in presence of NAI's in the in ovo assays exhibited difference in growth levels. The present study reports the natural occurrence of a novel I117T mutation in AI H5N1 virus conferring cross-resistance to oseltamivir and zanamivir highlighting the urgent need of antiviral surveillance of AI viruses.

Increased overdose mortality during the first week of the month: Revisiting the "check effect" through a spatial lens

BACKGROUND

The timing of social service benefit issuance is thought to be associated with increased drug overdose fatalities. However, the extent to which this excess mortality is concentrated in communities with higher levels of benefit receipt has not been studied. We sought to examine if benefit receipt at the neighborhood level was associated with spatiotemporal patterns of overdose fatalities.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective review of all accidental overdose deaths recorded in Rhode Island from 2014 to 2016 (n = 838). Overdose incident locations were geocoded to the census block group level. Clusters of census block groups with excess overdose mortality at the beginning of a month were identified using spatial scan methods. Logistic regression models were fit to identify characteristics associated with the inclusion of a census block group within a cluster.

RESULTS

Increased rates of overdose fatalities at the beginning of a month were observed relative to the end of a preceding month (Ratio: 1.17; 95% CI: 1.04, 1.38). The proportions of residents receiving cash public assistance or Supplemental Security Income were not associated with excess mortality at the beginning of a month; however, the proportion of residents living in unaffordable housing was (OR: 1.42; 95% CI: 1.05, 1.91).

CONCLUSION

Despite previous research on benefit check issuance and overdose, welfare receipt was not associated with excess overdose mortality at the beginning of a month at the neighborhood level. Future research on housing cost burden and its influence on overdose death risk at the individual level is needed.

Global dynamics of highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in poultry between 2005 and 2016-Focus on distance and rate of spread

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is of major importance for human and animal health because of high morbidity and mortality in poultry and the potential for transmission of this zoonotic pathogen to humans. Knowledge of HPAI epidemiology in avian populations and practical information on the temporal and spatial spread of the disease after introduction into a country is important in order to enhance the capacity of predicting and managing epidemics to minimize the negative impacts on human and animal health. Using data reported to the World Organisation for Animal Health between 2005 and 2017 by 199 countries for 14,129 outbreaks in poultry, we used a spatial and time-series analysis to determine that: (a) During the last 12 years, there were two major global peaks in the number of countries affected by HPAI with 23% and 26% of countries affected in 2006 and 2016. (b) Based on the seasonality analysis, spread is the lowest in September, begins to rise in October, and peaks in February. (c) The median distance HPAI outbreaks spread from the index outbreak was 111 km, while the median apparent rate of spread of outbreaks was 1.9 km/day. (d) In 39% of HPAI events, the disease did not spread beyond the index outbreak and the median maximum spread from the index outbreak per event was 45 km. (e) The distance HPAI outbreaks spread from the index outbreak was significantly negatively correlated with the number of outbreaks during the same time period, indicating that the spread of HPAI was lower during global panzootics than during periods of low transmission. These findings are of major importance for veterinary services to design and implement surveillance measures for improving preparedness to minimize the impacts of this disease.

PA-X: a key regulator of influenza A virus pathogenicity and host immune responses

PA-X, a fusion protein belonging to influenza A viruses (IAVs), integrating the N-terminal 191 amino acids of PA gene and the ribosomal frame-shifting product that lengthens out to 41 or 61 amino acids. Since its discovery in 2012, multiple functions have been attributed to this small protein, including a process, where wide-spread protein synthesis in infected host cells is shut down (called host shutoff), and viral replication, polymerase activity, viral-induced cell apoptosis, PA nuclear localization, and virulence are modulated. However, many of its proposed functions may be specific to strain, subtype, host, or cell line. In this review, we start by describing the well-defined global host-shutoff ability of PA-X and the potential mechanisms underlying it. We move on to the role played by PA-X in modulating innate and acquired immune responses in the host. We then systematically discuss the role played by PA-X in modulating the virulence of influenza viruses of different subtypes and host origins, and finish with a general overview of the research advances made in identifying the host cell partners that interact with PA-X. To uncover possible clues about the differential effects of PA-X in modulating viral virulence, we focus on systemically evaluating polymorphisms in PA-X from various viral subtypes and hosts, including avian and human H5N1, H5N6, H9N2, and H7N9 viruses. Finally, we conclude with a proposition regarding the possible future research directions for this important protein.

Avian influenza surveillance in domestic waterfowl and environment of live bird markets in Bangladesh, 2007-2012

Avian influenza viruses, including highly pathogenic strains, pose severe economic, animal and public health concerns. We implemented live bird market surveillance in Bangladesh to identify the subtypes of avian influenza A viruses in domestic waterfowl and market environments. We collected waterfowl samples monthly from 4 rural sites from 2007 to 2012 and environmental samples from 4 rural and 16 urban sites from 2009 to 2012. Samples were tested through real-time RT-PCR, virus culture, and sequencing to detect and characterize avian influenza A viruses. Among 4,308 waterfowl tested, 191 (4.4%) were positive for avian influenza A virus, including 74 (1.9%) avian influenza A/H5 subtype. The majority (99%, n = 73) of the influenza A/H5-positive samples were from healthy appearing waterfowl. Multiple subtypes, including H1N1, H1N3, H3N2, H3N6, H3N8, H4N1, H4N2, H4N6, H5N1 (clades 2.2.2, 2.3.2.1a, 2.3.4.2), H5N2, H6N1, H7N9, H9N2, H11N2 and H11N3, H11N6 were detected in waterfowl and environmental samples. Environmental samples tested positive for influenza A viruses throughout the year. Avian influenza viruses, including H5N1 and H9N2 subtypes were also identified in backyard and small-scale raised poultry. Live bird markets could be high-risk sites for harboring the viruses and have the potential to infect naive birds and humans exposed to them.

Live bird markets in Bangladesh as a potentially important source for Avian Influenza Virus transmission

Live bird markets (LBM) are important for trading poultry in many developing countries where they are being considered hotspots of Avian Influenza Virus (AIV) prevalence and contamination. An active surveillance for Avian Influenza Virus (AIV) was conducted on four species of LBM birds (chickens, ducks, quails and pigeons) from 10 of the largest LBM in Chittagong, Bangladesh, and two species of peri-domestic wild birds (house crow and Asian pied starling) in their direct vicinity from November 2012 until September 2016. Our aim was to identify the scale and annual pattern of AIV circulation in both the LBM birds and the two per-domestic wild bird species living in close proximity of the LBM. In the latter two species, the annual pattern in AIV antibody prevalence was additionally investigated. A total of 4770 LBM birds and 1119 peri-domestic wild birds were sampled. We used rt-PCR for detection of the AIV M-gene and AIV subtypes H5, H7 and H9 from swab samples. We used c-ELISA for AIV antibody detection from serum samples of peri-domestic wild birds. Average AIV prevalence among the four LBM species varied between 16 and 28%, whereas no AIV was detected in peri-domestic wild birds by rt-PCR. In all LBM species we found significantly higher AIV prevalence in winter compared to summer. A similar pattern was found in AIV antibody prevalence in peri-domestic wild birds feeding in the direct vicinity of LBM. For the subtypes of AIV investigated, we found a significantly higher proportion of AIV H5 in LBM chickens and H9 in LBM ducks. No H7 was detected in any of the investigated samples. We conclude that AIV and notably AIV H5 and H9 were circulating in the investigated LBM of Bangladesh with clear seasonality that matched the prevalence of AIV antibodies of peri-domestic wild birds. These patterns show great resemblance to the annual outbreak patterns in Bangladeshi poultry industry. Our data suggest considerable exchange of AIV within and among the four LBM bird species and peri-domestic wild birds, which likely contributes to the maintenance of the AIV problems in Bangladesh. Increasing biosecurity and notably reducing the direct and indirect mixing of various domestic bird species and peri-domestic wild birds and developing all-in-all-out selling systems with regular use of disinfectant are likely to reduce the risk of transmission and spread of AIV, including HPAI.

Impact of RNA Degradation on Viral Diagnosis: An Understated but Essential Step for the Successful Establishment of a Diagnosis Network

The current global conditions, which include intensive globalization, climate changes, and viral evolution among other factors, have led to an increased emergence of viruses and new viral diseases; RNA viruses are key drivers of this evolution. Laboratory networks that are linked to central reference laboratories are required to conduct both active and passive environmental surveillance of this complicated global viral environment. These tasks require a continuous exchange of strains or field samples between different diagnostic laboratories. The shipment of these samples on dry ice represents both a biological hazard and a general health risk. Moreover, the requirement to ship on dry ice could be hampered by high costs, particularly in underdeveloped countries or regions located far from each other. To solve these issues, the shipment of RNA isolated from viral suspensions or directly from field samples could be a useful way to share viral genetic material. However, extracted RNA stored in aqueous solutions, even at -70 °C, is highly prone to degradation. The current study evaluated different RNA storage conditions for safety and feasibility for future use in molecular diagnostics. The in vitro RNA-transcripts obtained from an inactivated highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus was used as a model. The role of secondary structures in the protection of the RNA was also explored. Of the conditions evaluated, the dry pellet matrix was best able to protect viral RNA under extreme storage conditions. This method is safe, cost-effective and assures the integrity of RNA samples for reliable molecular diagnosis. This study aligns with the globally significant "Global One Health" paradigm, especially with respect to the diagnosis of emerging diseases that require confirmation by reference laboratories.

Seasonality in risk of pandemic influenza emergence

Influenza pandemics can emerge unexpectedly and wreak global devastation. However, each of the six pandemics since 1889 emerged in the Northern Hemisphere just after the flu season, suggesting that pandemic timing may be predictable. Using a stochastic model fit to seasonal flu surveillance data from the United States, we find that seasonal flu leaves a transient wake of heterosubtypic immunity that impedes the emergence of novel flu viruses. This refractory period provides a simple explanation for not only the spring-summer timing of historical pandemics, but also early increases in pandemic severity and multiple waves of transmission. Thus, pandemic risk may be seasonal and predictable, with the accuracy of pre-pandemic and real-time risk assessments hinging on reliable seasonal influenza surveillance and precise estimates of the breadth and duration of heterosubtypic immunity.

Mild Respiratory Illness Among Young Children Caused by Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A (H5N1) Virus Infection in Dhaka, Bangladesh, 2011

Background

In March 2011, a multidisciplinary team investigated 2 human cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) virus infection, detected through population-based active surveillance for influenza in Bangladesh, to assess transmission and contain further spread.

Methods

We collected clinical and exposure history of the case patients and monitored persons coming within 1 m of a case patient during their infectious period. Nasopharyngeal wash specimens from case patients and contacts were tested with real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction, and virus culture and isolates were characterized. Serum samples were tested with microneutralization and hemagglutination inhibition assays. We tested poultry, wild bird, and environmental samples from case patient households and surrounding areas for influenza viruses.

Results

Two previously healthy case patients, aged 13 and 31 months, had influenzalike illness and fully recovered. They had contact with poultry 7 and 10 days before illness onset, respectively. None of their 57 contacts were subsequently ill. Clade 2.2.2.1 highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 viruses were isolated from the case patients and from chicken fecal samples collected at the live bird markets near the patients' dwellings.

Conclusion

Identification of H5N1 cases through population-based surveillance suggests possible additional undetected cases throughout Bangladesh and highlights the importance of surveillance for mild respiratory illness among populations frequently exposed to infected poultry.

Demographic and ecological risk factors for human influenza A virus infections in rural Indonesia

Background

Indonesia has the world's highest reported mortality for human infections with highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N1) virus. Indonesia is an agriculturally driven country where human‐animal mixing is common and provides a unique environment for zoonotic influenza A virus transmission.

Objectives

To identify potential demographic and ecological risk factors for human infection with seasonal influenza A viruses in rural Indonesia, a population‐based study was conducted in Cileunyi and Soreang subdistricts near Bandung in western Java from 2008 to 2011.

Methods

Passive influenza surveillance with RT‐PCR confirmation of influenza A viral RNA in respiratory specimens was utilized for case ascertainment. A population census and mapping were utilized for population data collection. The presence of influenza A(H3N2) and A(H1N1)pdm09 virus infections in a household was modeled using Generalized Estimating Equations.

Results

Each additional child aged <5 years in a household increased the odds of H3N2 approximately 5 times (OR=4.59, 95%CI: 3.30‐6.24) and H1N1pdm09 by 3.5 times (OR=3.53, 95%CI: 2.51‐4.96). In addition, the presence of 16‐30 birds in the house was associated with an increased odds of H3N2 (OR=5.08, 95%CI: 2.00‐12.92) and H1N1pdm09 (OR=12.51 95%CI: 6.23‐25.13).

Conclusion

Our findings suggest an increase in influenza A virus infections in rural Indonesian households with young children and poultry.

Economic factors influencing zoonotic disease dynamics: demand for poultry meat and seasonal transmission of avian influenza in Vietnam

While climate is often presented as a key factor influencing the seasonality of diseases, the importance of anthropogenic factors is less commonly evaluated. Using a combination of methods - wavelet analysis, economic analysis, statistical and disease transmission modelling - we aimed to explore the influence of climatic and economic factors on the seasonality of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in the domestic poultry population of Vietnam. We found that while climatic variables are associated with seasonal variation in the incidence of avian influenza outbreaks in the North of the country, this is not the case in the Centre and the South. In contrast, temporal patterns of H5N1 incidence are similar across these 3 regions: periods of high H5N1 incidence coincide with Lunar New Year festival, occurring in January-February, in the 3 climatic regions for 5 out of the 8 study years. Yet, daily poultry meat consumption drastically increases during Lunar New Year festival throughout the country. To meet this rise in demand, poultry production and trade are expected to peak around the festival period, promoting viral spread, which we demonstrated using a stochastic disease transmission model. This study illustrates the way in which economic factors may influence the dynamics of livestock pathogens.

An epidemiological study of avian influenza A (H5) virus in nomadic ducks and their raising practices in northeastern Bangladesh, 2011-2012

BACKGROUND

In Bangladesh, nomadic duck flocks are groups of domestic ducks reared for egg production that are moved to access feeding sites beyond their owners' village boundaries and are housed overnight in portable enclosures in scavenging areas. The objectives of this study were to measure the prevalence of influenza A virus RNA and H5-specific antibodies in nomadic ducks and to characterize nomadic duck raising practices in northeastern Bangladesh.

METHODS

We tested duck egg yolk specimens by competitive ELISA to detect antibodies against avian influenza A (H5) and environmental fecal samples by real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) to detect influenza A virus RNA and H5 subtype.

RESULTS

The median age of the ducks was 24 months (range: 8-36 months) and the median flock size was 300 ducks (range: 105-1100). Of 1860 egg yolk samples, 556 (30%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 28-32) were positive for antibodies against H5 and 58 flocks (94%) had at least one egg with H5-specific antibodies. Of 496 fecal samples, 121 (24%, 95% CI: 22-29) had detectable influenza A RNA. Thirty-three flocks (53%) had at least one fecal sample positive for influenza A RNA.

CONCLUSIONS

Nomadic ducks in Bangladesh are commonly infected with avian influenza A (H5) virus and may serve as a bridging host for transmission of avian influenza A (H5) virus or other avian influenza A viruses subtypes between wild waterfowl, backyard poultry, and humans in Bangladesh.

Quantitative assessment of a spatial multicriteria model for highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 in Thailand, and application in Cambodia

The Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 (HPAI) virus is now considered endemic in several Asian countries. In Cambodia, the virus has been circulating in the poultry population since 2004, with a dramatic effect on farmers' livelihoods and public health. In Thailand, surveillance and control are still important to prevent any new H5N1 incursion. Risk mapping can contribute effectively to disease surveillance and control systems, but is a very challenging task in the absence of reliable disease data. In this work, we used spatial multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) to produce risk maps for HPAI H5N1 in poultry. We aimed to i) evaluate the performance of the MCDA approach to predict areas suitable for H5N1 based on a dataset from Thailand, comparing the predictive capacities of two sources of a priori knowledge (literature and experts), and ii) apply the best method to produce a risk map for H5N1 in poultry in Cambodia. Our results showed that the expert-based model had a very high predictive capacity in Thailand (AUC = 0.97). Applied in Cambodia, MCDA mapping made it possible to identify hotspots suitable for HPAI H5N1 in the Tonlé Sap watershed, around the cities of Battambang and Kampong Cham, and along the Vietnamese border.

Increased Number of Human Cases of Influenza Virus A(H5N1) Infection, Egypt, 2014-15

During November 2014–April 2015, a total of 165 case-patients with influenza virus A(H5N1) infection, including 6 clusters and 51 deaths, were identified in Egypt. Among infected persons, 99% reported poultry exposure: 19% to ill poultry and 35% to dead poultry. Only 1 person reported wearing personal protective equipment while working with poultry.

Prevalence and diversity of H9N2 avian influenza in chickens of Northern Vietnam, 2014

Despite their classification as low pathogenicity avian influenza viruses (LPAIV), A/H9N2 viruses cause significant losses in poultry in many countries throughout Asia, the Middle East and North Africa. To date, poultry surveillance in Vietnam has focused on detection of influenza H5 viruses, and there is limited understanding of influenza H9 epidemiology and transmission dynamics. We determined prevalence and diversity of influenza A viruses in chickens from live bird markets (LBM) of 7 northern Vietnamese provinces, using pooled oropharyngeal swabs collected from October to December 2014. Screening by real time RT-PCR revealed 1207/4900 (24.6%) of pooled swabs to be influenza A virus positive; overall prevalence estimates after accounting for pooling (5 swabs/pools) were 5.8% (CI 5.4–6.0). Subtyping was performed on 468 pooled swabs with M gene Ct < 26. No influenza H7 was detected; 422 (90.1%) were H9 positive; and 22 (4.7%) were H5 positive. There was no evidence was of interaction between H9 and H5 virus detection rates. We sequenced 17 whole genomes of A/H9N2, 2 of A/H5N6, and 11 partial genomes. All H9N2 viruses had internal genes that clustered with genotype 57 and were closely related to Chinese human isolates of A/H7N9 and A/H10N8. Using a nucleotide divergence cutoff of 98%, we identified 9 distinct H9 genotypes. Phylogenetic analysis suggested multiple introductions of H9 viruses to northern Vietnam rather than in-situ transmission. Further investigations of H9 prevalence and diversity in other regions of Vietnam are warranted to assess H9 endemicity elsewhere in the country.

•

We report detection of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) from healthy chickens in Live Bird Markets of Vietnam. Because all breeds of domestic chickens are extremely susceptible to HPAI, we speculate that HPAI detections from market chickens may reflect infections that occur after arrival in the market. Alternatively, shedding of HPAI from healthy birds may reflect vaccine-induced protective immunity that mitigates disease but does not block viral infection.

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As many as 49% of all pooled surveillance swabs were positive for influenza A virus, corresponding to an overall Influenza A prevalence of 5.45% (95% Confidence Interval 5.4-6.0%).

•

Low pathogenicity avian influenza (LPAI) H9N2 accounted for the vast majority of all influenza A detections in market chickens sampled from 9 northern provinces.

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To date there is no evidence to suggest an interaction effect between circulation of H5 and H9 viruses; however sampling strategies that involve pooling of surveillance swabs from multiple birds greatly complicates the assessment of co-infection rates or evaluation of epidemiological associations.

Global epidemiology of avian influenza A H5N1 virus infection in humans, 1997-2015: a systematic review of individual case data

Avian influenza viruses A(H5N1) have caused a large number of typically severe human infections since the first human case was reported in 1997. However, there is a lack of comprehensive epidemiological analysis of global human cases of H5N1 from 1997-2015. Moreover, few studies have examined in detail the changing epidemiology of human H5N1 cases in Egypt, especially given the most recent outbreaks since November 2014 which have the highest number of cases ever reported globally over a similar period. Data on individual cases were collated from different sources using a systematic approach to describe the global epidemiology of 907 human H5N1 cases between May 1997 and April 2015. The number of affected countries rose between 2003 and 2008, with expansion from East and Southeast Asia, then to West Asia and Africa. Most cases (67.2%) occurred from December to March, and the overall case fatality risk was 53.5% (483/903) which varied across geographical regions. Although the incidence in Egypt has increased dramatically since November 2014, compared to the cases beforehand there were no significant differences in the fatality risk , history of exposure to poultry, history of human case contact, and time from onset to hospitalization in the recent cases.

Chronological, geographical, and seasonal trends of human cases of avian influenza A (H5N1) in Vietnam, 2003-2014: a spatial analysis

Background

Human cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) virus infection continue to occur in Southeast Asia. The objective of this study was to identify when and where human H5N1 cases have occurred in Vietnam and how the situation has changed from the beginning of the H5N1 outbreaks in 2003 through 2014, to assist with implementing methods of targeted disease management.

Methods

We assessed the disease clustering and seasonal variation of human H5N1 cases in Vietnam to evaluate the geographical and monthly timing trends. The clustering of H5N1 cases and associated mortality were examined over three time periods: the outbreak period (2003–2005), the post-outbreak (2006–2009), and the recent period (2010–2014) using the flexibly shaped space-time scan statistic. The most likely cases to co-cluster and the elevated risks for incidence and mortality were assessed via calculation of the relative risk (RR). The H5N1 case seasonal variation was analysed as the cyclic trend in incidence data using Roger’s statistical test.

Results

Between 2003 and 2005, H5N1 cases (RR: 2.15, p = 0.001) and mortality (RR: 2.49, p = 0.021) were significantly clustered in northern Vietnam. After 2010, H5N1 cases tended to occur on the border with Cambodia in the south, while H5N1 mortality clustered significantly in the Mekong delta area (RR: 6.62, p = 0.002). A significant seasonal variation was observed (p < 0.001), with a higher incidence of morbidity in December through April.

Conclusions

These findings indicate that clinical preparedness for H5N1 in Vietnam needs to be strengthened in southern Vietnam in December–April.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-016-1391-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Complete Genome Sequences of an H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus Isolated from Pigeon in China in 2012

An avian influenza virus strain, A/pigeon/Hubei/RP25/2012 (H5N1), was isolated from pigeons in Hubei province, China. Phylogenetic analysis indicates that the HA gene belongs to clade 2.3.4 and the other internal genes present different recombination events. Information about the strain provides basic research data for epidemiological evidences for revealing influenza evolution.

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 in Mainland China

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 has posed a significant threat to both humans and birds, and it has spanned large geographic areas and various ecological systems throughout Asia, Europe and Africa, but especially in mainland China. Great efforts in control and prevention of the disease, including universal vaccination campaigns in poultry and active serological and virological surveillance, have been undertaken in mainland China since the beginning of 2006. In this study, we aim to characterize the spatial and temporal patterns of HPAI H5N1, and identify influencing factors favoring the occurrence of HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in poultry in mainland China. Our study shows that HPAI H5N1 outbreaks took place sporadically after vaccination campaigns in poultry, and mostly occurred in the cold season. The positive tests in routine virological surveillance of HPAI H5N1 virus in chicken, duck, goose as well as environmental samples were mapped to display the potential risk distribution of the virus. Southern China had a higher positive rate than northern China, and positive samples were mostly detected from chickens in the north, while the majority were from duck in the south, and a negative correlation with monthly vaccination rates in domestic poultry was found (R = -0.19, p value = 0.005). Multivariate panel logistic regression identified vaccination rate, interaction between distance to the nearest city and national highway, interaction between distance to the nearest lake and wetland, and density of human population, as well as the autoregressive term in space and time as independent risk factors in the occurrence of HPAI H5N1 outbreaks, based on which a predicted risk map of the disease was derived. Our findings could provide new understanding of the distribution and transmission of HPAI H5N1 in mainland China and could be used to inform targeted surveillance and control efforts in both human and poultry populations to reduce the risk of future infections.