Serologic and Molecular Evidence of Vaccinia Virus Circulation among Small Mammals from Different Biomes, Brazil

Cross-species transmission and host range genes in poxviruses

The persistent epidemic of human mpox, caused by mpox virus (MPXV), raises concerns about the future spread of MPXV and other poxviruses. MPXV is a typical zoonotic virus which can infect human and cause smallpox-like symptoms. MPXV belongs to the Poxviridae family, which has a relatively broad host range from arthropods to vertebrates. Cross-species transmission of poxviruses among different hosts has been frequently reported and resulted in numerous epidemics. Poxviruses have a complex linear double-strand DNA genome that encodes hundreds of proteins. Genes related to the host range of poxvirus are called host range genes (HRGs). This review briefly introduces the taxonomy, phylogeny and hosts of poxviruses, and then comprehensively summarizes the current knowledge about the cross-species transmission of poxviruses. In particular, the HRGs of poxvirus are described and their impacts on viral host range are discussed in depth. We hope that this review will provide a comprehensive perspective about the current progress of researches on cross-species transmission and HRG variation of poxviruses, serving as a valuable reference for academic studies and disease control in the future.

Orthopoxvirus Circulation in an Endemic Area in Brazil: Investigation of Infections in Small Mammals during an Absence of Outbreaks

Vaccinia virus (VACV) is the causative agent of an emerging viral zoonosis called bovine vaccinia (BV). Several studies have documented characteristics of VACV infections in Brazil; however, the manner in which this virus is maintained in wildlife remains unknown. This work investigated the presence of viral DNA and anti-orthopoxvirus (OPXV) antibodies in samples collected from small mammals in a VACV-endemic area in Minas Gerais, Brazil, in the absence of current outbreaks. Samples did not show amplification of OPXV DNA in molecular tests. However, 5/142 serum samples demonstrated the presence of anti-OPXV neutralizing antibodies in serological tests. These data reinforce the involvement of small mammals in the natural cycle of VACV, highlighting the need for further ecological studies to better understand how this virus is maintained in nature and to develop measures to prevent BV outbreaks.

Orthopoxvirus Zoonoses—Do We Still Remember and Are Ready to Fight?

The eradication of smallpox was an enormous achievement due to the global vaccination program launched by World Health Organization. The cessation of the vaccination program led to steadily declining herd immunity against smallpox, causing a health emergency of global concern. The smallpox vaccines induced strong, humoral, and cell-mediated immune responses, protecting for decades after immunization, not only against smallpox but also against other zoonotic orthopoxviruses that now represent a significant threat to public health. Here we review the major aspects regarding orthopoxviruses’ zoonotic infections, factors responsible for viral transmissions, as well as the emerging problem of the increased number of monkeypox cases recently reported. The development of prophylactic measures against poxvirus infections, especially the current threat caused by the monkeypox virus, requires a profound understanding of poxvirus immunobiology. The utilization of animal and cell line models has provided good insight into host antiviral defenses as well as orthopoxvirus evasion mechanisms. To survive within a host, orthopoxviruses encode a large number of proteins that subvert inflammatory and immune pathways. The circumvention of viral evasion strategies and the enhancement of major host defenses are key in designing novel, safer vaccines, and should become the targets of antiviral therapies in treating poxvirus infections.

Serological Evidence of Orthopoxvirus Infection in Neotropical Primates in Brazil

The genus Orthopoxvirus (OPXV) of the family Poxviridae comprises several viruses that are capable of infecting a wide range of hosts. One of the most widespread OPXVs is the Vaccinia virus (VACV), which circulates in zoonotic cycles in South America, especially in Brazil, infecting domestic and wild animals and humans and causing economic losses as well as impacting public health. Despite this, little is known about the presence and/or exposure of neotropical primates to orthopoxviruses in the country. In this study, we report the results of a search for evidence of OPVX infections in neotropical free-living primates in the state of Minas Gerais, southeast Brazil. The sera or liver tissues of 63 neotropical primates were examined through plaque reduction neutralization tests (PRNT) and real-time PCR. OPXV-specific neutralizing antibodies were detected in two sera (4.5%) from Callithrix penicillata, showing 55% and 85% reduction in plaque counts, evidencing their previous exposure to the virus. Both individuals were collected in urban areas. All real-time PCR assays were negative. This is the first time that evidence of OPXV exposure has been detected in C. penicillata, a species that usually lives at the interface between cities and forests, increasing risks of zoonotic transmissions through spillover/spillback events. In this way, studies on the circulation of OPXV in neotropical free-living primates are necessary, especially now, with the monkeypox virus being detected in new regions of the planet.

Monkeypox 2022 outbreak in non-endemic countries: Open questions relevant for public health, nonpharmacological intervention and literature review

Starting from mid-May 2022, cases of human monkeypox started to rise in several non-endemic countries. By mid-July, more than 17000 confirmed/suspect cases have been reported by at least 82 countries worldwide, with a regular incremental trend. In order to contain the disease diffusion, risk evaluation is crucial to undertake informed decisions and effective communication campaigns. However, since orthopoxvirus infections so far have attracted low attention, due to the eradication of smallpox 40 years ago, and to the confinement of human monkeypox almost exclusively to endemic areas, several unresolved issues concerning natural history, ecology and pathogenesis remain. To this respect, we identified some open questions and reviewed the relevant literature on monkeypoxvirus and/or related orthopoxviruses. The results will be discussed in the perspective of their relevance to public health decisions, particularly those related to non-pharmacological interventions.

Comparative Pathology of Zoonotic Orthopoxviruses

This review provides a brief history of the impacts that a human-specific Orthopoxvirus (OPXV), Variola virus, had on mankind, recalls how critical vaccination was for the eradication of this disease, and discusses the consequences of discontinuing vaccination against OPXV. One of these consequences is the emergence of zoonotic OPXV diseases, including Monkeypox virus (MPXV). The focus of this manuscript is to compare pathology associated with zoonotic OPXV infection in veterinary species and in humans. Efficient recognition of poxvirus lesions and other, more subtle signs of disease in multiple species is critical to prevent further spread of poxvirus infections. Additionally included are a synopsis of the pathology observed in animal models of MPXV infection, the recent spread of MPXV among humans, and a discussion of the potential for this virus to persist in Europe and the Americas.

Genomic Sequencing and Analysis of a Novel Human Cowpox Virus With Mosaic Sequences From North America and Old World Orthopoxvirus

Orthopoxviruses (OPXVs) not only infect their natural hosts, but some OPXVs can also cause disease in humans. Previously, we partially characterized an OPXV isolated from an 18-year-old male living in Northern Norway. Restriction enzyme analysis and partial genome sequencing characterized this virus as an atypical cowpox virus (CPXV), which we named CPXV-No-H2. In this study, we determined the complete genome sequence of CPXV-No-H2 using Illumina and Nanopore sequencing. Our results showed that the whole CPXV-No-H2 genome is 220,276 base pairs (bp) in length, with inverted terminal repeat regions of approximately 7 kbp, containing 217 predicted genes. Seventeen predicted CPXV-No-H2 proteins were most similar to OPXV proteins from the Old World, including Ectromelia virus (ECTV) and Vaccinia virus, and North America, Alaskapox virus (AKPV). CPXV-No-H2 has a mosaic genome with genes most similar to other OPXV genes, and seven potential recombination events were identified. The phylogenetic analysis showed that CPXV-No-H2 formed a separate clade with the German CPXV isolates CPXV_GerMygEK938_17 and CPXV_Ger2010_MKY, sharing 96.4 and 96.3% nucleotide identity, respectively, and this clade clustered closely with the ECTV-OPXV Abatino clade. CPXV-No-H2 is a mosaic virus that may have arisen out of several recombination events between OPXVs, and its phylogenetic clustering suggests that ECTV-Abatino-like cowpox viruses form a distinct, new clade of cowpox viruses.

Infection agents of Didelphidae (Didelphimorphia) of Brazil: an underestimated matter in zoonoses research

Zoonoses are diseases or infections naturally transmissible from vertebrate animals to humans, and can be bacterial, viral or parasitic. The growth of urbanization, industrialization and the advance of agriculture and livestock facilitate the spread of infectious and parasitic agents from wild animals to the human population and to their domestic animals. Among the various reservoirs of zoonotic agents, we find that didelphid species, due to their high capacity for adaptation in urban environments, as an important study case. We reviewed the literature data on the pathogens, including with zoonotic potential of marsupial species occurring in Brazil, accounted for infections by agents that we categorized into Bacteria, Viruses, Protozoa, and Helminths. Aiming identifies possible knowledge gaps, we also surveyed the origin of studied samples and the institutions leading the researches on host didelphids. Among the hosts, the genus Didelphis in the cycles of these agents stands out. Moreover, we found that the majority of reported cases are in the Southeastern Brazil, mean the data from other Brazilian localities and didelphid species could be underestimated. Most studies took place in graduate programs of public research institutions, emphasizing the importance of the funding public research for the Brazilian scientific development.

Seroprevalence of bovine vaccinia in cows and its correlation with the productive profile of affected farms in Distrito Federal, Brazil

Bovine vaccinia (BV) is an infectious disease caused by Vaccinia virus (VACV) characterized by vesicular and exanthematic lesions, mainly in cattle. Although BV has been described in some Brazilian regions in the last decades, official information regarding the current prevalence in bovine herds of Midwestern Brazil is lacking. Thus, the current study aimed to estimate the seroprevalence and risk factors associated with BV in cattle in the Distrito Federal (DF), Brazil. Sera of 312 cows of 64 herds were tested by virus-neutralizing test for VACV antibodies. Herd and animal seroprevalence were estimated to be 33.3% (CI 95%: 18.2-48.3%) and 10.6% (CI 95%: 1.0-20.2%), respectively. Seropositive cows were detected in dairy, beef, and mixed-purpose farms. The results of an epidemiological questionnaire showed that no risk factor analyzed was positively associated with seropositivity to VACV. There was no significant association between type of milking (manual/mechanic) and seropositivity to VACV; however, most seropositive cows were present in farms with high daily milk production and high number of lactating and adult cows. Our results indicate that VACV circulates in many regions of DF with considerable prevalence in dairy cows. Control measures to restrict VACV circulation and consequences of the infection may be advisable.

Educational Approach to Prevent the Burden of Vaccinia Virus Infections in a Bovine Vaccinia Endemic Area in Brazil

Bovine vaccinia (BV), caused by Vaccinia virus (VACV), is a zoonotic disease characterized by exanthematous lesions on the teats of dairy cows and the hands of milkers, and is an important public health issue in Brazil and South America. BV also results in economic losses to the dairy industry, being a burden to the regions involved in milk production. In the past 20 years, much effort has been made to increase the knowledge regarding BV epidemiology, etiologic agents, and interactions with the hosts and the environment. In the present study, we evaluated milking practices that could be associated with VACV infections in an endemic area in Brazil and proposed an educational tool to help prevent VACV infections. In our survey, 124 individuals (51.7%) from a total of 240 had previously heard of BV, 94 of which knew about it through BV outbreaks. Although most individuals involved in dairy activities (n = 85/91) reported having good hygiene practices, only 29.7% used adequate disinfecting products to clean their hands and 39.5% disinfected cows’ teats before and after milking. Furthermore, 46.7% of individuals reported having contact with other farm and domestic animals besides dairy cattle. We also evaluated the presence of IgG and IgM antibodies in the surveyed population. Overall, 6.1% of likely unvaccinated individuals were positive for anti-Orthopoxvirus IgG antibodies, and 1.7% of all individuals were positive for IgM antibodies. Based on our findings, we proposed educational materials which target individuals with permanent residence in rural areas (mainly farmers and milkers), providing an overview and basic information about preventive measures against VACV infections that could enhance BV control and prevention efforts, especially for vulnerable populations located in endemic areas.

Twenty Years after Bovine Vaccinia in Brazil: Where We Are and Where Are We Going?

Orthopoxvirus (OPV) infections have been present in human life for hundreds of years. It is known that Variola virus (VARV) killed over 300 million people in the past; however, it had an end thanks to the physician Edward Jenner (who developed the first vaccine in history) and also thanks to a massive vaccination program in the 20th century all over the world. Although the first vaccine was created using the Cowpox virus (CPXV), it turned out later that the Vaccinia virus was the one used during the vaccination program. VACV is the etiological agent of bovine vaccinia (BV), a zoonotic disease that has emerged in Brazil and South America in the last 20 years. BV has a great impact on local dairy economies and is also a burden to public health. In this review, we described the main events related to VACV and BV emergence in Brazil and South America, the increase of related scientific studies, and the issues that science, human and animal medicine are going to face if we do not be on guard to this virus and its disease.

Here, There, and Everywhere: The Wide Host Range and Geographic Distribution of Zoonotic Orthopoxviruses

The global emergence of zoonotic viruses, including poxviruses, poses one of the greatest threats to human and animal health. Forty years after the eradication of smallpox, emerging zoonotic orthopoxviruses, such as monkeypox, cowpox, and vaccinia viruses continue to infect humans as well as wild and domestic animals. Currently, the geographical distribution of poxviruses in a broad range of hosts worldwide raises concerns regarding the possibility of outbreaks or viral dissemination to new geographical regions. Here, we review the global host ranges and current epidemiological understanding of zoonotic orthopoxviruses while focusing on orthopoxviruses with epidemic potential, including monkeypox, cowpox, and vaccinia viruses.

Patchy Occurrence of Cowpox Virus in Voles from Germany

Cowpox virus (CPXV), genus Orthopoxvirus, family Poxviridae, is a zoonotic pathogen in Eurasian wild rodents. High seroprevalences have been reported previously for vole and murine species in Europe. In contrast, viral DNA was only rarely detected, and very few reservoir-derived CPXV isolates exist. In this study, CPXV DNA and CPXV-reactive antibodies were monitored in wild small mammals for 5 years in four German federal states. Screening of liver tissues of 3966 animals by CPXV real-time PCR (qPCR) revealed five voles of two species positive for CPXV DNA. Two positive bank voles (Myodes glareolus) and two positive common voles (Microtus arvalis) originated from two plots in Baden-Wuerttemberg. One positive bank vole originated from Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. None of the small mammals from Thuringia and North Rhine-Westphalia was positive in the qPCR. CPXV antigen-based indirect immunofluorescence assays of 654 highly diluted chest cavity fluid samples detected two bank voles and two common voles from the same sites in Baden-Wuerttemberg to be highly seroreactive. Five animals were CPXV DNA positive, and four other animals were orthopoxvirus seropositive. Our study indicates both a very low prevalence and a patchy occurrence of CPXV in common and bank voles and absence in other rodent and shrew species in Germany. The multiple detection of infected voles at one site in Baden-Wuerttemberg and continued detection in a region of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania classify these regions as potential endemic foci.

Exposure of free-ranging capybaras (Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris) to the vaccinia virus

The aim of this study was to evaluate the possibility of free-ranging animals/hunting dogs as sources of infection in the vaccinia virus (VACV) transmission chain. Serological, cell culture and molecular assays were conducted in 56 free-ranging animals and 22 hunting dogs. ELISA/neutralizing assays showed that two (2.5%) capybaras (Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris) had anti-OPV positive antibodies, while all samples tested negative through PCR/cell culture. After being hit by cars on roads, capybaras that exhibited neither clinical signs nor any association with bovine outbreaks had neutralizing antibodies against the Orthopoxvirus, as detected through plaque-reduction neutralizing tests and ELISA. Evidence exists regarding peridomestic capybaras acting as a source of the virus and serving as a link between wild and urban environments, thus contributing to viral maintenance.

An Update on the Known Host Range of the Brazilian Vaccinia Virus: An Outbreak in Buffalo Calves

Even nearly forty years after the eradication of smallpox, members of the Poxviridae family continue to be the focus of an increasing number of studies. Among these studies, prominently stands vaccinia virus, an orthopoxvirus that is associated with bovine vaccinia outbreaks. Although more frequently associated with infections in cattle and humans, the host range of vaccinia virus is not restricted only to these hosts. There are several instances of molecular and serological evidence of circulation of vaccinia virus among wildlife species. In addition, viral isolation has confirmed a broad spectrum of vaccinia virus hosts. In this report, we provide a brief update on the host range of Brazilian vaccinia virus, and present a case description of an outbreak in domestic buffalo calves from Northeastern Brazil that corroborates previous serological and molecular studies. Furthermore, in the present study, vaccinia virus has been isolated for the first time in buffaloes, and referred to as vaccinia virus Pernambuco (VACV-PE). Phylogenetic reconstruction was based on A56R clustered VACV-PE with vaccinia virus isolates belonging to group 1 Brazilian vaccinia virus. Furthermore, the vaccinia virus genome was detected in the milk of a lactating cow, which thereby revealed a pathway for future studies on the possible impact of vaccinia virus on buffalo milk and milk products. Taken together, these results provide the first description of clinical disease caused by vaccinia virus in buffaloes in South America. They also raise new questions about the chain of transmission of this virus.

Vaccinia Virus among Domestic Dogs and Wild Coatis, Brazil, 2013-2015

To determine their potential role as a source of human infection, we tested domestic dogs (urban) and wild coatis (wild) in Brazil for vaccinia virus. Our findings of positive neutralizing antibodies and quantitative PCR results for 35/184 dogs and 13/90 coatis highlight a potential public health risk.

Poxvirus-based vector systems and the potential for multi-valent and multi-pathogen vaccines

INTRODUCTION

With the increasing number of vaccines and vaccine-preventable diseases, the pressure to generate multi-valent and multi-pathogen vaccines grows. Combining individual established vaccines to generate single-shot formulations represents an established path, with significant ensuing public health and cost benefits. Poxvirus-based vector systems have the capacity for large recombinant payloads and have been widely used as platforms for the development of recombinant vaccines encoding multiple antigens, with considerable clinical trials activity and a number of registered and licensed products.

AREAS COVERED

Herein we discuss design strategies, production processes, safety issues, regulatory hurdles and clinical trial activities, as well as pertinent new technologies such as systems vaccinology and needle-free delivery. Literature searches used PubMed, Google Scholar and clinical trials registries, with a focus on the recombinant vaccinia-based systems, Modified Vaccinia Ankara and the recently developed Sementis Copenhagen Vector.

EXPERT COMMENTARY

Vaccinia-based platforms show considerable promise for the development of multi-valent and multi-pathogen vaccines, especially with recent developments in vector technologies and manufacturing processes. New methodologies for defining immune correlates and human challenge models may also facilitate bringing such vaccines to market.

Silent Orthohantavirus Circulation Among Humans and Small Mammals from Central Minas Gerais, Brazil

New World orthohantaviruses are emerging RNA viruses that cause hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome (HCPS). These viruses are a burden to public health around the world with a lethality rate of around 60%. In South America, rodents of Sigmodontinae subfamily are the main reservoirs of orthohantaviruses. We described a serosurvey for orthohantaviruses circulation in an apparently healthy human population and small mammals from rural areas in Central Minas Gerais State, Brazil. A total of 240 individuals and 50 small mammals (26 rodents belonging to 10 different species and 24 marsupials from 4 different species) were sampled during 2012-2013. The seroprevalence rates of IgG/IgM antibodies in humans were 7.1 and 1.6%, respectively. Only one rodent, an Oligoryzomys nigripes captured in peridomestic area, tested positive for IgG antibodies and viral RNA. Our findings suggest a silent circulation of orthohantaviruses in a region of intensive agriculture production. The detection of seropositive humans in an area with a lack of previous HCPS reports highlights potential oligosymptomatic cases and the need for surveillance strategies that could reduce the risk of future outbreaks.

Bovine Vaccinia: Insights into the Disease in Cattle

Bovine vaccinia (BV), caused by Vaccinia virus (VACV), is a zoonosis characterized by exanthematous lesions in the teats of dairy cows and the hands of milkers and is an important public health issue. Severe VACV-induced lesions in the teats and udder of cows and buffaloes could lead to mastitis and other secondary infections, thereby reducing productivity and resulting in economic losses to the dairy industry. In Brazil, BV re-emerged in the late 1990s and is now endemic in most of the Brazilian territory. In the last 15 years, much effort has been made to know more about this disease and its epidemiology, etiologic agents, and interactions with the host and the environment. In this review, we describe the known dynamics of VACV infection in cattle and the viral shedding routes, as well as the relevance of BV for animal and public health.

Bayesian reconstruction of the evolutionary history and cross-species transition of variola virus and orthopoxviruses

Variola virus (VARV), the causative agent of smallpox, is an exclusively human virus belonging to the genus Orthopoxvirus, which includes many other viral species covering a wide range of mammal hosts, such as vaccinia, cowpox, camelpox, taterapox, ectromelia, and monkeypox virus. The tempo and mode of evolution of Orthopoxviruses were reconstructed using a Bayesian phylodynamic framework by analysing 80 hemagglutinin sequences retrieved from public databases. Bayesian phylogeography was used to estimate their putative ancestral hosts. In order to estimate the substitution rate, the tree including all of the available Orthopoxviruses was calibrated using historical references dating the South American variola minor clade (alastrim) to between the XVI and XIX century. The mean substitution rate determined by the analysis was 6.5 × 10^-6 substitutions/site/year. Based on this evolutionary estimate, the time of the most recent common ancestor of the genus Orthopoxvirus was placed at about 10 000 years before the present. Cowpox virus was the species closest to the root of the phylogenetic tree. The root of VARV circulating in the XX century was estimated to be about 700 years ago, corresponding to about 1300 AD. The divergence between West African and South American VARV went back about 500 years ago (falling approximately in the XVI century). A rodent species is the most probable ancestral host from which the ancestors of all the known Orthopoxviruses were transmitted to the other mammal host species, and each of these species represented a dead-end for each new poxvirus species, without any further inter-specific spread.

Vaccinia Virus Natural Infections in Brazil: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

The orthopoxviruses (OPV) comprise several emerging viruses with great importance to human and veterinary medicine, including vaccinia virus (VACV), which causes outbreaks of bovine vaccinia (BV) in South America. Historically, VACV is the most comprehensively studied virus, however, its origin and natural hosts remain unknown. VACV was the primary component of the smallpox vaccine, largely used during the smallpox eradication campaign. After smallpox was declared eradicated, the vaccination that conferred immunity to OPV was discontinued, favoring a new contingent of susceptible individuals to OPV. VACV infections occur naturally after direct contact with infected dairy cattle, in recently vaccinated individuals, or through alternative routes of exposure. In Brazil, VACV outbreaks are frequently reported in rural areas, affecting mainly farm animals and humans. Recent studies have shown the role of wildlife in the VACV transmission chain, exploring the role of wild rodents as reservoirs that facilitate VACV spread throughout rural areas. Furthermore, VACV circulation in urban environments and the significance of this with respect to public health, have also been explored. In this review, we discuss the history, epidemiological, ecological and clinical aspects of natural VACV infections in Brazil, also highlighting alternative routes of VACV transmission, the factors involved in susceptibility to infection, and the natural history of the disease in humans and animals, and the potential for dissemination to urban environments.

Hazard Characterization of Modified Vaccinia Virus Ankara Vector: What Are the Knowledge Gaps?

Modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) is the vector of choice for human and veterinary applications due to its strong safety profile and immunogenicity in vivo. The use of MVA and MVA-vectored vaccines against human and animal diseases must comply with regulatory requirements as they pertain to environmental risk assessment, particularly the characterization of potential adverse effects to humans, animals and the environment. MVA and recombinant MVA are widely believed to pose low or negligible risk to ecosystem health. However, key aspects of MVA biology require further research in order to provide data needed to evaluate the potential risks that may occur due to the use of MVA and MVA-vectored vaccines. The purpose of this paper is to identify knowledge gaps in the biology of MVA and recombinant MVA that are of relevance to its hazard characterization and discuss ongoing and future experiments aimed at providing data necessary to fill in the knowledge gaps. In addition, we presented arguments for the inclusion of uncertainty analysis and experimental investigation of verifiable worst-case scenarios in the environmental risk assessment of MVA and recombinant MVA. These will contribute to improved risk assessment of MVA and recombinant MVA vaccines.

Re-Assembly and Analysis of an Ancient Variola Virus Genome

We report a major improvement to the assembly of published short read sequencing data from an ancient variola virus (VARV) genome by the removal of contig-capping sequencing tags and manual searches for gap-spanning reads. The new assembly, together with camelpox and taterapox genomes, permitted new dates to be calculated for the last common ancestor of all VARV genomes. The analysis of recently sequenced VARV-like cowpox virus genomes showed that single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and amino acid changes in the vaccinia virus (VACV)-Cop-O1L ortholog, predicted to be associated with VARV host specificity and virulence, were introduced into the lineage before the divergence of these viruses. A comparison of the ancient and modern VARV genome sequences also revealed a measurable drift towards adenine + thymine (A + T) richness.

Ecological niche modeling to determine potential niche of Vaccinia virus: a case only study

BACKGROUND

Emerging and understudied pathogens often lack information that most commonly used analytical tools require, such as negative controls or baseline data; thus, new analytical strategies are needed to analyze transmission patterns and drivers of disease emergence. Zoonotic infections with Vaccinia virus (VACV) were first reported in Brazil in 1999, VACV is an emerging zoonotic Orthopoxvirus, which primarily infects dairy cattle and farmers in close contact with infected cows. Prospective studies of emerging pathogens could provide critical data that would inform public health planning and response to outbreaks. By using the location of 87-recorded outbreaks and publicly available bioclimatic data, we demonstrate one such approach. Using an ecological niche model (ENM) algorithm, we identify the environmental conditions under which VACV outbreaks have occurred, and determine additional locations in two affected countries that may be susceptible to transmission. Further, we show how suitability for the virus responds to different levels of various environmental factors and highlight the most important factors in determining its transmission.

METHODS

A literature review was performed and the geospatial coordinates of 87 molecularly confirmed VACV outbreaks in Brazil were identified. An ENM was generated using MaxENT software by combining principal component analysis results of 19 bioclim spatial layers, and 25 randomly selected subsets of the original list of 87 outbreaks.

RESULTS

The final ENM predicted all areas where Brazilian outbreaks occurred, one out of five of the Colombian outbreak regions and identified new regions within Brazil that are suitable for transmission based on bioclimatic factors. Further, the most important factors in determining transmission suitability are precipitation of the wettest quarter, annual precipitation, mean temperature of the coldest quarter and mean diurnal range.

CONCLUSION

The analyses here provide a means by which to study patterns of an emerging infectious disease and identify regions that are potentially suitable for its transmission, in spite of the paucity of high-quality critical data. Policy and methods for the control of infectious diseases often use a reactionary model, addressing diseases only after significant impact on human health has ensued. The methodology used in the present work allows the identification of areas where disease is likely to appear, which could be used for directed intervention.