Agriculture in West Africa in the Twenty-First Century: Climate Change and Impacts Scenarios, and Potential for Adaptation

Research on Moringa (Moringa oleifera Lam.) in Africa

While Moringa oleifera Lam. is gaining importance in Africa, especially sub-Saharan Africa, it is unclear whether research is following the quick pace of its development on the continent. Therefore, this article analyzes the landscape of research dealing with moringa in Africa. This systematic review draws upon 299 eligible articles identified through a search carried out on the Web of Science in April 2023. Research on M. oleifera is rather recent in Africa but interest is increasing among scholars. While the research field is multidisciplinary and cross-sectoral, the literature seems to focus on biological and environmental sciences. Moreover, research is performed mainly in South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt, and Ghana. The analysis suggests a significant potential contribution of moringa to food security and nutrition, climate change mitigation/adaptation, farming systems resilience, and livelihoods. Its versatility and diverse applications and uses make moringa particularly interesting for developing countries, such as African ones. However, this review also underscores some factors hindering its development. Therefore, there is a need to strengthen research on moringa to unlock its potential in Africa. Investments in research, innovation, and development can help address the many challenges that Africa faces and contribute to the transition towards sustainable and resilient food systems.

Weather Extremes Shock Maize Production: Current Approaches and Future Research Directions in Africa

Extreme weather events have led to widespread yield losses and significant global economic damage in recent decades. African agriculture is particularly vulnerable due to its harsh environments and limited adaptation capacity. This systematic review analyzes 96 articles from Web of Science, Science Direct, and Google Scholar, focusing on biophysical studies related to maize in Africa and worldwide. We investigated the observed and projected extreme weather events in Africa, their impacts on maize production, and the approaches used to assess these effects. Our analysis reveals that drought, heatwaves, and floods are major threats to African maize production, impacting yields, suitable cultivation areas, and farmers' livelihoods. While studies have employed various methods, including field experiments, statistical models, and process-based modeling, African research is often limited by data gaps and technological constraints. We identify three main gaps: (i) lack of reliable long-term experimental and empirical data, (ii) limited access to advanced climate change adaptation technologies, and (iii) insufficient knowledge about specific extreme weather patterns and their interactions with management regimes. This review highlights the urgent need for targeted research in Africa to improve understanding of extreme weather impacts and formulate effective adaptation strategies. We advocate for focused research on data collection, technology transfer, and integration of local knowledge with new technologies to bolster maize resilience and food security in Africa.

Physiological and molecular mechanisms of plant-root responses to iron toxicity

The chemical form and physiological activity of iron (Fe) in soil are dependent on soil pH and redox potential (Eh), and Fe levels in soils are frequently elevated to the point of causing Fe toxicity in plants, with inhibition of normal physiological activities and of growth and development. In this review, we describe how iron toxicity triggers important physiological changes, including nitric-oxide (NO)-mediated potassium (K+) efflux at the tips of roots and accumulation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and reactive nitrogen (RNS) in roots, resulting in physiological stress. We focus on the root system, as the first point of contact with Fe in soil, and describe the key processes engaged in Fe transport, distribution, binding, and other mechanisms that are drawn upon to defend against high-Fe stress. We describe the root-system regulation of key physiological processes and of morphological development through signaling substances such as ethylene, auxin, reactive oxygen species, and nitric oxide, and discuss gene-expression responses under high Fe. We especially focus on studies on the physiological and molecular mechanisms in rice and Arabidopsis under high Fe, hoping to provide a valuable theoretical basis for improving the ability of crop roots to adapt to soil Fe toxicity.

Genome-wide analysis and expression profile of TCP gene family under drought and salinity stress condition in cowpea (Vigna unguiculata (L.) Walp.)

TCP transcription factors are known to regulate abiotic stress condition, but their role in V. unguiculata remains unexplored. So, in silico analysis and expression profile of the TCP gene family were performed in V. unguiculata to understand its role in response to heat and drought stress. A genome-wide search detected 28 TCPs (designated as VuTCPs) that were grouped into three subclasses by phylogenetic analysis. Gene structure, synteny, and phylogeny analyses of VuTCPs have shown a typical evolutionary path. One tandem and eight segmental duplication events were identified. Furthermore, identified duplicated, and orthologous VuTCP genes were under strong purifying selection pressure. A total of 15 SSRs were identified in the 12 VuTCPs, while 10 VuTCP genes were regulated by different miRNAs having a major role in abiotic stress tolerance. Analysed physicochemical properties, cis-acting elements, and gene ontology suggested that VuTCPs play various roles, including salinity and drought stress tolerance. qRT-PCR analysis showed that 11 and 15 VuTCPs were upregulated under drought and salinity stress conditions, respectively. Our findings provide comprehensive insights into the genomic characterization of the VuTCPs gene family in V. unguiculata, offering a foundation for understanding their structure, evolution, and role in abiotic stress tolerance.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13205-024-03976-x.

Onion (Allium cepa L.) and Drought: Current Situation and Perspectives

Onions (Allium cepa L.) are the second most commonly produced and consumed vegetable worldwide due to their economic, nutritional, and medicinal benefits. However, drought hinders vegetative growth, lowers yields and bulb quality, reduces photosynthetic activity, and alters the onion plant's metabolism. This review provides a summary of global research on the impact of drought on onions. It specifically seeks to shed light on aspects that remain unclear and generate research avenues. Relevant scientific articles were sourced from the AGORA database, Web of Science (WoS), and search engines such as Google Scholar, Scopus, MEDLINE/PubMed, and SCImago to achieve this objective. A total of 117 scientific articles and documents related to onion and drought were critically examined. The review revealed agromorphological, physiological, biochemical, and genomic studies depicting factors that contribute to drought tolerance in onion genotypes. However, there was little research on the physiological, biochemical, and genetic characteristics of drought tolerance in onions, which need to be deepened to establish its adaptation mechanisms. Understanding the mechanisms of onion response to water stress will contribute to fast-tracking the development of drought-tolerant genotypes and optimize onion production. Future research should be more focused on investigating onion drought tolerance mechanisms and structural and functional genomics and identifying genes responsible for onion drought tolerance.

Glutaredoxin regulation of primary root growth is associated with early drought stress tolerance in pearl millet

Seedling root traits impact plant establishment under challenging environments. Pearl millet is one of the most heat and drought tolerant cereal crops that provides a vital food source across the sub-Saharan Sahel region. Pearl millet's early root system features a single fast-growing primary root which we hypothesize is an adaptation to the Sahelian climate. Using crop modeling, we demonstrate that early drought stress is an important constraint in agrosystems in the Sahel where pearl millet was domesticated. Furthermore, we show that increased pearl millet primary root growth is correlated with increased early water stress tolerance in field conditions. Genetics including genome-wide association study and quantitative trait loci (QTL) approaches identify genomic regions controlling this key root trait. Combining gene expression data, re-sequencing and re-annotation of one of these genomic regions identified a glutaredoxin-encoding gene PgGRXC9 as the candidate stress resilience root growth regulator. Functional characterization of its closest Arabidopsis homolog AtROXY19 revealed a novel role for this glutaredoxin (GRX) gene clade in regulating cell elongation. In summary, our study suggests a conserved function for GRX genes in conferring root cell elongation and enhancing resilience of pearl millet to its Sahelian environment.

Field phenotyping for African crops: overview and perspectives

Improvements in crop productivity are required to meet the dietary demands of the rapidly-increasing African population. The development of key staple crop cultivars that are high-yielding and resilient to biotic and abiotic stresses is essential. To contribute to this objective, high-throughput plant phenotyping approaches are important enablers for the African plant science community to measure complex quantitative phenotypes and to establish the genetic basis of agriculturally relevant traits. These advances will facilitate the screening of germplasm for optimum performance and adaptation to low-input agriculture and resource-constrained environments. Increasing the capacity to investigate plant function and structure through non-invasive technologies is an effective strategy to aid plant breeding and additionally may contribute to precision agriculture. However, despite the significant global advances in basic knowledge and sensor technology for plant phenotyping, Africa still lags behind in the development and implementation of these systems due to several practical, financial, geographical and political barriers. Currently, field phenotyping is mostly carried out by manual methods that are prone to error, costly, labor-intensive and may come with adverse economic implications. Therefore, improvements in advanced field phenotyping capabilities and appropriate implementation are key factors for success in modern breeding and agricultural monitoring. In this review, we provide an overview of the current state of field phenotyping and the challenges limiting its implementation in some African countries. We suggest that the lack of appropriate field phenotyping infrastructures is impeding the development of improved crop cultivars and will have a detrimental impact on the agricultural sector and on food security. We highlight the prospects for integrating emerging and advanced low-cost phenotyping technologies into breeding protocols and characterizing crop responses to environmental challenges in field experimentation. Finally, we explore strategies for overcoming the barriers and maximizing the full potential of emerging field phenotyping technologies in African agriculture. This review paper will open new windows and provide new perspectives for breeders and the entire plant science community in Africa.

Determinants of farmers' adaptation strategies to climate change impacts in northwestern Ethiopia

Climate change and related extreme events have become global challenges in ensuring sustainable development. This affects water availability and agricultural production, particularly in developing countries. This study explored the factors affecting farmers' adaptation mechanisms to climate change in different agro-ecological zones of the Bure Zuria district of northwestern Ethiopia. A household survey, focus group discussion, key informant interviews, and observations were used to acquire primary data on farmers' socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, adaptation strategies and potential barriers. About 190 randomly selected households from different agro-ecologies were included in this study. Moreover, reports and published sources were used to acquire secondary data. Data were analyzed using a multinomial logit regression model and descriptive statistics. The results indicated that soil and water conservation practices (26.7%) were the main adaptation responses in highland agro-ecology. In contrast, supplementary feeding for livestock (56%) was the main adaptation response to the adverse effects of climate extremes in lowland agro-ecology. Farmers identified land scarcity (25.84%) and shortage of water for irrigation (28.57%) as major barriers to adaptation in the highland and lowland agro-ecologies, respectively. In addition, agro-ecology, education level, age, active labor, number of livestock (TLU), off-farm income, frequency of extension contacts, credit access, and market access were decisive factors affecting farmers' adaptation mechanisms to withstand extreme climatic events. In conclusion, soil and water conservation practices are more practiced in highland areas than in lowland areas. Because the steepness of farmlands and erodible soils increase farmers' vulnerability to flood hazards in highland areas than in lowland areas. It is suggested that investigations on the climate change-induced gender-differentiated impacts shall be conducted to design all-inclusive and effective responses.

Child Survival and Annual Crop Yield Reductions in Rural Burkina Faso: Critical Windows of Vulnerability Around Early-Life Development

Populations that are reliant on subsistence farming are particularly vulnerable to climatic effects on crop yields. However, empirical evidence on the role of the timing of exposure to crop yield deficits in early-life development is limited. We examined the relationship between child survival and annual crop yield reductions at different stages of early-life development in a subsistence farming population in Burkina Faso. Using shared frailty Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for confounders, we analyzed 57,288 children under 5 years of age followed by the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System (1994-2016) in relation to provincial food-crop yield levels experienced in 5 nonoverlapping time windows (12 months before conception, gestation, birth-age 5.9 months, ages 6.0 months-1.9 years, and ages 2.0-4.9 years) and their aggregates (birth-1.9 years, first 1,000 days from conception, and birth-4.9 years). Of the nonoverlapping windows, point estimates were largest for child survival related to food-crop yields for the time window of 6.0 months-1.9 years: The adjusted mortality hazard ratio was 1.10 (95% confidence interval: 1.03, 1.19) for a 90th-to-10th percentile yield reduction. These findings suggest that child survival in this setting is particularly vulnerable to cereal-crop yield reductions during the period of nonexclusive breastfeeding.

Exploring the future of GM technology in sustainable local food systems in Colombia

The security of Earth's food systems is challenged by shifting regional climates. While agricultural processes are disrupted by climate change, they also play a large role in contributing to destabilizing greenhouse gases. Finding new strategies to increase yields while decreasing agricultural environmental impacts is essential. Tropical agriculture is particularly susceptible to climate change: local, smallholder farming, which provides a majority of the food supply, is high risk and has limited adaptation capacity. Rapid, inexpensive, intuitive solutions are needed, like the implementation of genetically modified (GM) crops. In the Latin American tropics, high awareness and acceptance of GM technologies, opportunities to test GM crops as part of local agricultural educations, and their known economic benefits, support their use. However, this is not all that is needed for the future of GM technologies in these areas: GM implementation must also consider environmental and social sustainability, which can be unique to a locality. Primarily from the perspective of its educators, the potential of a rural Colombian university in driving GM implementation is explored, including the role of this type of university in producing agricultural engineers who can innovate with GM to meet regionally-dependent environmental and cultural needs that could increase their sustainability.

Transcriptome Analysis of Differentially Expressed Genes Associated with Salt Stress in Cowpea (Vigna unguiculata L.) during the Early Vegetative Stage

Cowpea (Vigna unguiculata (L.), 2n = 22) is a tropical crop grown in arid and semiarid regions that is tolerant to abiotic stresses such as heat and drought. However, in these regions, salt in the soil is generally not eluted by rainwater, leading to salt stress for a variety of plant species. This study was conducted to identify genes related to salt stress using the comparative transcriptome analysis of cowpea germplasms with contrasting salt tolerance. Using the Illumina Novaseq 6000 platform, 1.1 billion high-quality short reads, with a total length of over 98.6 billion bp, were obtained from four cowpea germplasms. Of the differentially expressed genes identified for each salt tolerance type following RNA sequencing, 27 were shown to exhibit significant expression levels. These candidate genes were subsequently narrowed down using reference-sequencing analysis, and two salt stress-related genes (Vigun_02G076100 and Vigun_08G125100) with single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) variation were selected. Of the five SNPs identified in Vigun_02G076100, one that caused significant amino acid variation was identified, while all nucleotide variations in Vigun_08G125100 was classified as missing in the salt-resistant germplasms. The candidate genes and their variation, identified in this study provide, useful information for the development of molecular markers for cowpea breeding programs.

First report of aeroponically grown Bambara groundnut, an African indigenous hypogeal legume: Implications for climate adaptation

Global agricultural production is currently limited by negative climate-related hazards such as drought, uneven rainfall and rising temperatures. Many efforts have been put in place by government and non-government agencies to mitigate the challenges of climate change in the sector. However, the approaches do not seem feasible due to the growing demand for food. With these challenges, climate-smart agricultural technologies such as aeroponics and underutilised crops have been projected as the future of agriculture in developing African countries to reduce the risk of food insecurity. In this paper, we present the cultivation of an underutilised indigenous African legume crop, Bambara groundnut, in an aeroponics system. Seventy Bambara groundnut landraces were cultivated in a low-cost climate-smart aeroponics system and in sawdust media. The results showed that Bambara groundnut landraces cultivated in aeroponics performed better than those cultivated in a traditional hydroponics (sawdust/drip irrigation) technique in terms of plant height and chlorophyll content, where the landraces cultivated in sawdust had a higher number of leaves than those cultivated in aeroponics. This study also demonstrated the feasibility of introducing a generic Internet of Things platform for climate-smart agriculture in developing countries. The proof-of-concept and the successful cultivation of a hypogeal crop in aeroponics can be useful for cost-effective adaptation and mitigation plans for climate change, particularly for food security in rural African agricultural sectors.

A spatialized assessment of ecosystem service relationships in a multifunctional agroforestry landscape of Senegal

Agroforestry systems are an integral part of Sub-Saharan agricultural landscapes. Studies conducted at tree or plot scales on the supply of ecosystem services (ES) suggest that agroforestry practices are a promising way to build multifunctional agricultural landscapes. However, the current characterization and understanding of how multiple ES are associated across such heterogeneous agricultural landscapes are still limited. This study provides the first characterization of the multiple ESs supplied by a Sahelian Faidherbia albida agroforestry parkland and their relationships. Relying on field data for 11 ES indicators, recent advances in remote sensing-derived information, and blending different ES mapping approaches, we first assessed the spatial heterogeneity of the supply of each ES. We found that the majority of ES indicators remained below ES potential values over the study area by 25 % to 50 %, revealing that there is a considerable scope for increasing the ES supply in the F. albida parkland. Then, using a scoring approach, we analyzed the supply of multiple ESs. We observed a large number of hotspots and a clear effect of the proximity of F. albida trees fostering the supply of multiple ESs in their vicinity. Finally, we mapped and analyzed the dominant relationships - trade-offs, synergies or losses - between ESs from a cooccurrence spatial approach. We showed that significant trade-offs and losses (58 % of the area) between ESs can exist in the F. albida parkland. Interestingly, we also showed that synergies occurred mainly up to 10 m from the F. albida trees, suggesting that synergies need to be increased beyond this threshold. By adopting an original ES valuation framework, we provided basic insights into ESs and their relationships. The different maps and information generated can support public debates and target new policies fostering the multifunctionality of F. albida parklands as well as in various other parklands of West Africa.

Physiological and Proteomic Responses of Cassava to Short-Term Extreme Cool and Hot Temperature

Temperature is one of the most critical factors affecting cassava metabolism and growth. This research was conducted to investigate the effects of short-term exposure to extreme cool (15 °C) and hot (45 °C) temperature on photosynthesis, biochemical and proteomics changes in potted plants of two cassava cultivars, namely Rayong 9 and Kasetsart 50. One-month-old plants were exposed to 15, 30, and 45 °C for 60 min in a temperature chamber under light intensity of 700 μmol m⁻² s⁻¹. Compared to the optimum temperature (30 °C), exposure to 15 °C resulted in 28% reduction in stomatal conductance (gs) and 62% reduction in net photosynthesis rate (P_n). In contrast, gs under 45 °C increased 2.61 folds, while P_n was reduced by 50%. The lower P_n but higher electron transport rate (ETR) of the cold-stressed plants indicated that a greater proportion of electrons was transported via alternative pathways to protect chloroplast from being damaged by reactive oxygen species (ROS). Moreover, malondialdehyde (MDA) contents, a marker related to the amount of ROS, were significantly higher at low temperature. Proteomics analysis revealed some interesting differentially expressed proteins (DEPs) including annexin, a multi-functional protein functioning in early events of heat stress signaling. In response to low-temperature stress, AP2/ERF domain-containing protein (a cold-related transcription factor) and glutaredoxin domain-containing protein (a component of redox signaling network under cold stress) were detected. Taken together, both cultivars were more sensitive to low than high temperature. Moreover, Rayong 9 displayed higher P_n under both temperature stresses, and was more efficient in controlling ROS under cold stress than Kasetsart 50.

Changes in Climate Vulnerability and Projected Water Stress of The Gambia's Food Supply Between 1988 and 2018: Trading With Trade-Offs

Background

The coexistence of under- and overnutrition is of increasing public health concern in The Gambia. Fruits, vegetables and pulses are essential to healthy and sustainable diets, preventing micronutrient deficiencies and non-communicable diseases, while cereals significantly contribute to energy intake. However, environmental changes are predicted to intensify, reducing future yields of these crops if agricultural productivity and resilience are not improved. The Gambia is highly climate-vulnerable and import-dependent, but the extent of its reliance on other climate-vulnerable countries for its supply of nutritionally important crops is currently unknown.

Methods

We used United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization data, with novel origin-tracing algorithms applied, to analyse The Gambia's supply of cereals, fruits, vegetables and pulses between 1988 and 2018. The climate vulnerability of countries was assessed using Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN) index scores, and projected water stress (2040) assessed using World Resources Institute (WRI) scores. Multilevel generalized linear mixed-effects models were used to identify changes in the overall climate vulnerability and projected water stress of supply.

Results

Between 1988 and 2018, The Gambia's supply of cereals, fruits, vegetables and pulses diversified, with the proportion domestically produced falling (Cereals: 61.4%-27.7%; Fruits: 93.0%-55.7%; Vegetables: 24.6%-16.3%; Pulses: 100.0%-76.0%). The weighted-average ND-GAIN scores improved (indicating less climate vulnerability) for supply of all crops except cereals, but the weighted-average WRI score for supply deteriorated (indicating increased projected water stress) for all crops except vegetables. When just considering imports, weighted-average ND-GAIN scores deteriorated for fruits and cereals while showing no significant change for other food groups, and the WRI score deteriorated for cereals only.

Conclusions

Despite some notable improvements in the environmental vulnerability of The Gambia's supply of nutritionally important crops (particularly vegetables), considerable, and in some cases increasing, proportions of their supply are produced in countries that are vulnerable to climate change and future water stress. This may have implications for the availability, affordability, and hence consumption of these crops in The Gambia, ultimately exacerbating existing nutritional challenges. Exploring the options to strengthen supply resilience-such as altering trade patterns, agricultural techniques and diets-should be prioritized.

Spatio-Temporal Trends of Precipitation and Temperature Extremes across the North-East Region of Côte d’Ivoire over the Period 1981–2020

The northeast region of Côte d’Ivoire, where agriculture is the main economic activity, is potentially vulnerable to extreme climatic conditions. This study aims to make a comprehensive spatio-temporal analysis of trends in extreme indices related to precipitation and temperature for the Zanzan region of Côte d’Ivoire over the period of 1981–2020. The statistical significance of the calculated trends was assessed using the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test, while Sen’s slope estimation was used to define the amount of change. For extreme precipitations, the results showed a decreasing trend in annual total precipitations estimated at 112.37 mm and in daily precipitations intensity indices. Furthermore, the consecutive dry days’ index showed an increasing trend estimated at 18.67 days. Unlike the trends in precipitation extremes, which showed statistically non-significant trends, the trends in temperature extremes were mostly significant over the entire study area. The cold spells indices all show decreasing trends, while the warm spells show increasing trends. Drawing inferences from the results, it becomes clear that the study area may be threatened by food insecurity and water scarcity. The results are aimed to support climate adaptation efforts and policy intervention in the region.

Transcriptomic analysis of methyl jasmonate treatment reveals gene networks involved in drought tolerance in pearl millet

Water deficit stress at the early stage of development is one of the main factors limiting pearl millet production. One practice to counteract this limitation would be to resort to the application of hormones to stimulate plant growth and development at critical stages. Exogenous methyl jasmonate (MeJA) can improve drought tolerance by modulating signaling, metabolism, and photosynthesis pathways, therefore, we assumed that can occur in pearl millet during the early stage of development. To decipher the molecular mechanisms controlling these pathways, RNAseq was conducted in two pearl millet genotypes, drought-sensitive SosatC88 and drought-tolerant Souna3, in response to 200 μM of MeJA. Pairwise comparison between the MeJA-treated and non-treated plants revealed 3270 differentially expressed genes (DEGs) among 20,783 transcripts in SosatC88 and 127 DEGs out of 20,496 transcripts in Souna3. Gene ontology (GO) classification assigned most regulated DEGs in SosatC88 to heme binding, oxidation-reduction process, response to oxidative stress and membrane, and in Souna3 to terpene synthase activity, lyase activity, magnesium ion binding, and thylakoid. The Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) enrichment analysis reveals that DEGs in SosatC88 are related to the oxidation-reduction process, the biosynthesis of other secondary metabolites, the signal transduction, and the metabolism of terpenoids, while in Souna3, DEGs are related to the metabolism of terpenoids and the energy metabolism. Two genes encoding a diterpenoid biosynthesis-related (Pgl_GLEAN_10009413) and a Glutathione S transferase T3 (Pgl_GLEAN_10034098) were contra-regulated between SosatC88 and Souna3. Additionally, five random genes differentially expressed by RNAseq were validated using qPCR, therefore, they are potential targets for the development of novel strategies breeding schemes for plant growth under water deficit stress. These insights into the molecular mechanisms of pearl millet genotype tolerance at the early stage of development contribute to the understanding of the role of hormones in adaptation to drought-prone environments.

Changes in the Potential Distribution of Vanilla planifolia Andrews under Different Climate Change Projections in Mexico

Vanilla planifolia is the most widely cultivated species for obtaining natural vanilla. In Mexico, vanilla production has decreased due to negative effects of climate change. We evaluate the current, potential, and future of vanilla cultivation areas in Mexico using bioclimatic models with distinct climate change scenarios (intermediate emissions, temperature rise of 1.1 to 2.6 °C, and high emissions from 2.6 to 4.8 °C, to 2050 and 2070), in order to understand the magnitude of future distribution changes and propose future management strategies. We found that the areas with greatest potential for establishment of V. planifolia are northern Veracruz state bordering the state of Puebla (the Totonacapan region) and northeast Oaxaca state. In the models, the most relevant environmental variable were mean temperature and precipitation of the driest quarter. The average projections for 2050 and 2070 show a progressive reduction in the potential area for the species (−1.6 and −17.3%). However, the Totonacapan region maintains the largest ideal cultivation area, while that of northeast Oaxaca is reduced by 50%. These results show the need to redesign the strategies of agricultural production of vanilla, through sustainable and climate-smart agricultural production strategies as well as a national strategy for conservation of genetic diversity.

A high-density linkage map of finger millet provides QTL for blast resistance and other agronomic traits

Finger millet [Eleusine coracana (L.) Gaertn.] is a critical subsistence crop in eastern Africa and southern Asia but has few genomic resources and modern breeding programs. To aid in the understanding of finger millet genomic organization and genes underlying disease resistance and agronomically important traits, we generated a F_2:3 population from a cross between E. coracana (L.) Gaertn. subsp. coracana accession ACC 100007 and E. coracana (L.) Gaertn. subsp. africana , accession GBK 030647. Phenotypic data on morphology, yield, and blast (Magnaporthe oryzae) resistance traits were taken on a subset of the F_2:3 population in a Kenyan field trial. The F_2:3 population was genotyped via genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS) and the UGbS-Flex pipeline was used for sequence alignment, nucleotide polymorphism calling, and genetic map construction. An 18-linkage-group genetic map consisting of 5,422 markers was generated that enabled comparative genomic analyses with rice (Oryza sativa L.), foxtail millet [Setaria italica (L.) P. Beauv.], and sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench]. Notably, we identified conserved acrocentric homoeologous chromosomes (4A and 4B in finger millet) across all species. Significant quantitative trait loci (QTL) were discovered for flowering date, plant height, panicle number, and blast incidence and severity. Sixteen putative candidate genes that may underlie trait variation were identified. Seven LEUCINE-RICH REPEAT-CONTAINING PROTEIN genes, with homology to nucleotide-binding site leucine-rich repeat (NBS-LRR) disease resistance proteins, were found on three chromosomes under blast resistance QTL. This high-marker-density genetic map provides an important tool for plant breeding programs and identifies genomic regions and genes of critical interest for agronomic traits and blast resistance.

A forecast of staple crop production in Burkina Faso to enable early warnings of shortages in domestic food availability

Almost half of the Burkinabe population is moderately or severely affected by food insecurity. With climate change, domestic food production may become more under pressure, further jeopardizing food security. In this study, we focus on the production of maize, sorghum and millet as staple cereal crops in Burkina Faso to assess food availability as one component of food security. Based on a statistical weather-driven crop model, we provide a within-season forecast of crop production 1 month before the harvest. Hindcast results from 1984 to 2018 produce an r² of 0.95 in case of known harvest areas and an r² of 0.88 when harvest areas are modelled instead. We compare actually supplied calories with those usually consumed from staple crops, allowing us to provide early information on shortages in domestic cereal production on the national level. Despite the—on average—sufficient domestic cereal production from maize, sorghum and millet, a considerable level of food insecurity prevails for large parts of the population. We suggest to consider such forecasts as an early warning signal for shortages in domestic staple crop production and encourage a comprehensive assessment of all dimensions of food security to rapidly develop counteractions for looming food crises.

Spatiotemporal Changes in Temperature and Precipitation in West Africa. Part I: Analysis with the CMIP6 Historical Dataset

Climate variability and change constitute major challenges for Africa, especially West Africa (WA), where an important increase in extreme climate events has been noticed. Therefore, it appears essential to analyze characteristics and trends of some key climatological parameters. Thus, this study addressed spatiotemporal variabilities and trends in regard to temperature and precipitation extremes by using 21 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 6 (CMIP6) and 24 extreme indices from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). First, the CMIP6 variables were evaluated with observations (CHIRPS, CHIRTS, and CRU) of the period 1983–2014; then, the extreme indices from 1950 to 2014 were computed. The innovative trend analysis (ITA), Sen’s slope, and Mann–Kendall tests were utilized to track down trends in the computed extreme climate indices. Increasing trends were observed for the maxima of daily maximum temperature (TXX) and daily minimum temperature (TXN) as well as the maximum and minimum of the minimum temperature (TNX and TNN). This upward trend of daily maximum temperature (Tmax) and daily minimum temperature (Tmin) was enhanced with a significant increase in warm days/nights (TX90p/TN90p) and a significantly decreasing trend in cool days/nights (TX10p/TN10p). The precipitation was widely variable over WA, with more than 85% of the total annual water in the study domain collected during the monsoon period. An upward trend in consecutive dry days (CDD) and a downward trend in consecutive wet days (CWD) influenced the annual total precipitation on wet days (PRCPTOT). The results also depicted an upward trend in SDII and R30mm, which, additionally to the trends of CDD and CWD, could be responsible for localized flood-like situations along the coastal areas. The study identified the 1970s dryness as well as the slight recovery of the 1990s, which it indicated occurred in 1992 over West Africa.

Crop breeding for a changing climate: integrating phenomics and genomics with bioinformatics

Safeguarding crop yields in a changing climate requires bioinformatics advances in harnessing data from vast phenomics and genomics datasets to translate research findings into climate smart crops in the field. Climate change and an additional 3 billion mouths to feed by 2050 raise serious concerns over global food security. Crop breeding and land management strategies will need to evolve to maximize the utilization of finite resources in coming years. High-throughput phenotyping and genomics technologies are providing researchers with the information required to guide and inform the breeding of climate smart crops adapted to the environment. Bioinformatics has a fundamental role to play in integrating and exploiting this fast accumulating wealth of data, through association studies to detect genomic targets underlying key adaptive climate-resilient traits. These data provide tools for breeders to tailor crops to their environment and can be introduced using advanced selection or genome editing methods. To effectively translate research into the field, genomic and phenomic information will need to be integrated into comprehensive clade-specific databases and platforms alongside accessible tools that can be used by breeders to inform the selection of climate adaptive traits. Here we discuss the role of bioinformatics in extracting, analysing, integrating and managing genomic and phenomic data to improve climate resilience in crops, including current, emerging and potential approaches, applications and bottlenecks in the research and breeding pipeline.

Climate Change Impact and Variability on Cereal Productivity among Smallholder Farmers under Future Production Systems in West Africa

Agriculture in West Africa is constrained by several yield-limiting factors, such as poor soil fertility, erratic rainfall distributions and low input systems. Projected changes in climate, thus, pose a threat since crop production is mainly rain-fed. The impact of climate change and its variation on the productivity of cereals in smallholder settings under future production systems in Navrongo, Ghana and Nioro du Rip, Senegal was assessed in this study. Data on management practices obtained from household surveys and projected agricultural development pathways (through stakeholder engagements), soil data, weather data (historical: 1980–2009 and five General Circulation Models; mid-century time slice 2040–2069 for two Representative Concentration Pathways; 4.5 and 8.5) were used for the impact assessment, employing a crop simulation model. Ensemble maize yield changes under the sustainable agricultural development pathway (SDP) were −13 and −16%, while under the unsustainable development pathway (USDP), yield changes were −19 and −20% in Navrongo and Nioro du Rip, respectively. The impact on sorghum and millet were lower than that on maize. Variations in climate change impact among smallholders were high with relative standard deviations (RSD) of between 14% and 60% across the cereals with variability being higher under the USDP, except for millet. Agricultural production systems with higher intensification but with less emphasis on soil conservation (USDP) will be more negatively impacted by climate change compared to relatively sustainable ones (SDP).

Multi-Actors' Co-Implementation of Climate-Smart Village Approach in West Africa: Achievements and Lessons Learnt

Climate change and variability are significant challenges for the environment and food security worldwide. Development strategies focusing simultaneously on adaptive farming, productivity, and reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions-known as climate-smart agriculture (CSA) strategies-are key to responding to these challenges. For almost a decade, within the framework of Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), World Agroforestry (ICRAF), and its partners have been using Participatory Action Research (PAR) to fully engage key stakeholders in co-creating such CSA development strategies. This includes the testing of Agricultural Research for Development (AR4D) CSA scalability options. The multidisciplinary teams include the National Research and Extension Systems (NARES), national meteorological services (NMS), non-profit organizations (NGOs), and local radio programs, among others. The CCAFS-West Africa Program, World Agroforestry-West and Central Africa (ICRAF-WCA), International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), University of Reading, and Centre Régional de Formation et d'Application en Agro-météorologie et Hydrologie Opérationnelle (AGRHYMET) provide technical backstopping to the national teams. Climate information (CI) was used as an entry point to inform the development of CSA technologies and practices within Climate-Smart Villages (CSV). This groundwork has led to a greater understanding of three critical factors for successful CSV implementation: (1) Building strong partnerships to co-design and develop agricultural systems that improve ecosystem and population resilience, (2) Key stakeholders (researchers, farmers, development agents, and students) capacity strengthening through vocational and academic training, and (3) Using CI for livelihood planning at all scales. These three factors support more effective identification and testing of agricultural technologies and practices addressing climate variability and change at plot, community, and landscape levels. This paper discusses the PAR-CSA methodology and parameters for evaluation, including biophysical and social change. Keys to success, including communication, knowledge sharing tools, and scalability are also discussed. Finally, future opportunities for improvement are presented, including knowledge product development, CSA policy and investment planning, capacity building, further engagement of the private sector, and additional research on existing practices and tools.

Modelling Maize Yield and Water Requirements under Different Climate Change Scenarios

African countries such as Nigeria are anticipated to be more susceptible to the impacts of climate change due to large dependence on rainfed agriculture and to several uncertainties in the responses of crop production to climate change. The impacts of climate change on crop water requirements (CWR), irrigation water requirements (IWR), yields and crop water productivity (CWP) of rainfed maize in Ogun-Osun River Basin, Nigeria were evaluated for a baseline period (1986–2015) and future projection period (2021–2099) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. For the baseline period, there is no significant trend within the variables studied. However, IWR is projected to increase significantly by up to 140% in the future period, while yield might likely decline under both scenarios up to −12%. This study shows that in the future periods, supplemental irrigation has little impact in improving yields, but an increase in soil fertility can improve yields and CWP by up to 80% in 2099. This paper offers useful information on suitable adaptation measures which could be implemented by stakeholders and policymakers to counterbalance the effects of climate change on crop production.

Pearl millet genomic vulnerability to climate change in West Africa highlights the need for regional collaboration

Climate change is already affecting agro-ecosystems and threatening food security by reducing crop productivity and increasing harvest uncertainty. Mobilizing crop diversity could be an efficient way to mitigate its impact. We test this hypothesis in pearl millet, a nutritious staple cereal cultivated in arid and low-fertility soils in sub-Saharan Africa. We analyze the genomic diversity of 173 landraces collected in West Africa together with an extensive climate dataset composed of metrics of agronomic importance. Mapping the pearl millet genomic vulnerability at the 2050 horizon based on the current genomic-climate relationships, we identify the northern edge of the current areas of cultivation of both early and late flowering varieties as being the most vulnerable to climate change. We predict that the most vulnerable areas will benefit from using landraces that already grow in equivalent climate conditions today. However, such seed-exchange scenarios will require long distance and trans-frontier assisted migrations. Leveraging genetic diversity as a climate mitigation strategy in West Africa will thus require regional collaboration.

Replacement of local crops with alternative varieties adapted to future conditions may improve food security under climate change. Here the authors apply landscape genomics and ensemble climate modelling to pearl millet in West Africa, supporting the potential of transfrontier assisted seed exchange.

Integrating Ecosystem Services into Land-Use Modeling to Assess the Effects of Future Land-Use Strategies in Northern Ghana

In West Africa, where the majority of the population relies on natural resources and rain-fed agriculture, regionally adapted agricultural land-use planning is increasingly important to cope with growing demand for land-use products and intensifying climate variability. As an approach to identify effective future land-use strategies, this study applied spatially explicit modeling that addresses the spatial connectivity between the provision of ecosystem services and agricultural land-use systems. Considering that the status of ecosystem services varies with the perception of stakeholders, local knowledge, and characteristics of a case study area, two adjoining districts in northern Ghana were integrated into an assessment process of land-use strategies. Based on agricultural land-management options that were identified together with the local stakeholders, 75 future land-use strategies as combinations of multiple agricultural practices were elaborated. Potential impacts of the developed land-use strategies on ecosystem services and land-use patterns were assessed in a modeling platform that combines Geographic Information System (GIS) and Cellular Automaton (CA) modules. Modeled results were used to identify best land-use strategies that could deliver multiple ecosystem services most effectively. Then, local perception was applied to determine the feasibility of the best land-use strategies in practice. The results presented the different extent of trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem services delivered by future land-use strategies and their different feasibility depending on the district. Apart from the fact that findings were context-specific and scale-dependent, this study revealed that the integration of different local characteristics and local perceptions to spatially explicit ecosystem service assessment is beneficial for determining locally tailored recommendations for future agricultural land-use planning.

West African Summer Monsoon Precipitation Variability as Represented by Reanalysis Datasets

Focusing on West Africa, a region riddled with in situ data scarcity, we evaluate the summer monsoon monthly rainfall characteristics of five global reanalysis datasets: ERA5, ERA-Interim, JRA-55, MERRA2, and NCEP-R2. Their performance in reproducing the West African monsoon (WAM) climatology, interannual variability, and long-term trends for the main monsoon months are compared to gauge-only and satellite products. We further examine their ability to reproduce teleconnections between sea surface temperatures and monsoon rainfall. All reanalyses are able to represent the average rainfall patterns and seasonal cycle; however, regional biases can be marked. ERA5, ERA-Interim, and NCEP-R2 underestimate rainfall over areas of peak rainfall, with ERA5 showing the strongest underestimation, particularly over the Guinea Highlands. The meridional northward extent of the monsoon rainband is well captured by JRA-55 and MERRA2 but is too narrow in ERA-Interim, for which rainfall stays close to the Guinea Coast. Differences in rainband displacement become particularly evident when comparing strong El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years, where all reanalyses except ERA-Interim reproduce wetter Sahelian conditions for La Niña, while overestimating dry conditions at the coast except for NCEP-R2. Precipitation trends are not coherent across reanalyses and magnitudes are generally overestimated compared to observations, with only JRA-55 and NCEP-R2 displaying the expected positive trend in the Sahel. ERA5 generally outperforms ERA-Interim, highlighting clear improvements over its predecessor. Ultimately, we find the strengths of reanalyses to strongly vary across the region.

"We Will Always Ask Ourselves the Question of How to Feed the Family": Subsistence Farmers' Perceptions on Adaptation to Climate Change in Burkina Faso

In West Africa, climate change aggravates subsistence farmers' vulnerability to weather variability to sustain their agricultural and nutritional requirements. For successful adaptation policies, in-depth understanding of farmers' perceptions about climate change, agriculture, and adaptation strategies is essential. This qualitative study in rural Burkina Faso characterized farmers' perceptions and knowledge through in-depth interviews. The study enumerated the barriers, possibilities, strategies/practices, and support sources of farmers. There was awareness but limited understanding of climate change amongst farmers. Those unable to adapt, faced increased health difficulties, specifically regarding nutrition and mental health. Farmers could implement some dietary and agricultural adaptation strategies (reduce meal size, frequency and variety, preemptive purchase of cereals, multi-cropping, crop rotation, modified seeds) but were unable to implement others (soil rehabilitation, water management). Barriers to implementation comprised financial and time constraints, material and labor shortages, and inaccessible information. Farmers did not understand, trust or utilize meteorological services, but appreciated and relied on agricultural extension services. They reported that social and governmental support was sporadic and inconsistent. This study uncovers the following targets for climate change adaptation policies in rural Burkina Faso: promoting meteorological services, expanding agricultural extension services, increasing access to financial resources, and framing sustainable adaptation within national development goals.

Modelling climate change impacts on maize yields under low nitrogen input conditions in sub-Saharan Africa

Smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) currently grow rainfed maize with limited inputs including fertilizer. Climate change may exacerbate current production constraints. Crop models can help quantify the potential impact of climate change on maize yields, but a comprehensive multimodel assessment of simulation accuracy and uncertainty in these low-input systems is currently lacking. We evaluated the impact of varying [CO₂ ], temperature and rainfall conditions on maize yield, for different nitrogen (N) inputs (0, 80, 160 kg N/ha) for five environments in SSA, including cool subhumid Ethiopia, cool semi-arid Rwanda, hot subhumid Ghana and hot semi-arid Mali and Benin using an ensemble of 25 maize models. Models were calibrated with measured grain yield, plant biomass, plant N, leaf area index, harvest index and in-season soil water content from 2-year experiments in each country to assess their ability to simulate observed yield. Simulated responses to climate change factors were explored and compared between models. Calibrated models reproduced measured grain yield variations well with average relative root mean square error of 26%, although uncertainty in model prediction was substantial (CV = 28%). Model ensembles gave greater accuracy than any model taken at random. Nitrogen fertilization controlled the response to variations in [CO₂ ], temperature and rainfall. Without N fertilizer input, maize (a) benefited less from an increase in atmospheric [CO₂ ]; (b) was less affected by higher temperature or decreasing rainfall; and (c) was more affected by increased rainfall because N leaching was more critical. The model intercomparison revealed that simulation of daily soil N supply and N leaching plays a crucial role in simulating climate change impacts for low-input systems. Climate change and N input interactions have strong implications for the design of robust adaptation approaches across SSA, because the impact of climate change in low input systems will be modified if farmers intensify maize production with balanced nutrient management.

Influence of global climate on freshwater changes in Africa's largest endorheic basin using multi-scaled indicators

The poor investments in gauge measurements for hydro-climatic research in Africa has necessitated the need to investigate how decision makers can leverage on sophisticated space-borne measurements to improve knowledge on surface water hydrology that can feed directly into water accounting processes, and risk assessment from extreme droughts and its impacts. To demonstrate such potential, a suite of satellite earth observations (Sentinel-2, altimetry, Landsat, GRACE, and TRMM) and model data are combined with the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index to assess the impacts of global climate on freshwater dynamics over the LCB (Lake Chad basin), Africa's largest endorheic basin. As shown in the results of this study, the significant relationship of climate modes (AMO; r=0.68 and 0.59; and AMM; r=0.42 and 0.47) with drought patterns in the LCB highlights the evidence of global climate influence in the region. The significant declines in drought extents and their intensities (2004 - 2015) over LCB coincide with the rise in surface water extent of the Lake Chad during the same period. Change detection analysis of open water features in the southern pool of Lake Chad during the 2015 - 2019 period shows that on the average, only 28.4% of inundated areas within the vicinity of the Lake persisted during the period. While the association of terrestrial water storage (TWS) with model-derived surface water storage (SWS) is strongest (r=0.89) in the catchments that provide the most nourishment to the Lake Chad, the relationship of rainfall (2002 - 2017) with TWS (r=0.85), model TWS (r=0.87) and SWS (r=0.88) confirm that the LCB's hydrology is predominantly climate-driven. This notion is further reinforced as the predicted SWS over the LCB using a support vector machine regression scheme was found to be strongly correlated (r=0.95 at α=0.05) with observed SWS.

Coproducing Weather Forecast Information with and for Smallholder Farmers in Ghana: Evaluation and Design Principles

Many West African farmers are struggling to cope with changing weather and climatic conditions. This situation limits farmers’ ability to make optimal decisions for food and income security. Developing more useful and accessible weather and climate information services (WCIS) can help small-scale farmers improve their adaptive capacity. The literature suggests that such WCIS can be achieved if forecast information is produced jointly by farmers and scientists. To test this hypothesis and derive design requirements for effective WCIS, we evaluated the outcomes of an experimental coproduction of weather forecasts in Ada, Ghana. The experiment involved a user-driven design and testing of information and communications technology (ICT)-based digital (smartphones and apps) and rainfall monitoring tools by 22 farmers. They collected data and received weather forecasts during the 2018/2019 study period. The results showed a positive evaluation of the intervention, expressed by the level of engagement, the increase in usability of the tools and understanding of forecast uncertainty, outreach capacity with other farmers, and improved daily farming decisions. The success of the intervention was attributed to the iterative design process, as well as the training, monitoring, and technical support provided. We conclude that the application of modern technology in a coproduction process with targeted training and monitoring can improve smallholder farmers’ access to and use of weather and climate forecast information.

Fonio and Bambara Groundnut Value Chains in Mali: Issues, Needs, and Opportunities for Their Sustainable Promotion

As the effects of climate change are severely straining West African agricultural systems, the adoption of more incisive interventions in support of sustainable development agendas for the region is highly critical and cannot be further delayed by governments. Neglected and underutilized species (NUS) are one important ally in pursuing resilience in both production and food systems because of their promising traits in terms of nutrition, adaptation to local agroecosystems, and economic potential for local populations. Focusing on fonio, a gluten-free traditional cereal, and Bambara groundnut, a protein-rich leguminous crop, we investigate issues in their production, commercialization, and consumption in southern Mali. The aim was to assess needs and opportunities for improving their value chains and increasing their use and societal benefits. Using a Rapid Market Appraisal method, we surveyed traders, producers, processors, and consumers of target crops in 2017 and 2018. Our findings indicate that while both crops are consumed and praised by local populations, critical bottlenecks inhibit their wider socioeconomic potential. Lack of access to inputs and equipment and presence of sand in the commercialized product are important issues for fonio, whereas the Bambara groundnut value chain suffers from poor processing facilities and lack of market promotion. Policy recommendations to tackle the identified bottlenecks are proposed.

Stakeholders’ Perception of Climate Actions in Some Developing Economies

Resilience, adaptation and mitigation are unique but complimentary actions in the fight against climate change (CC), particularly in developing countries. Although evidence suggest the inclusion of stakeholder opinions as part of the frameworks for combating CC, this evidence is not well substantiated, and is not extensively described in sub-Sahara African CC literature. While language remains a big issue in CC discussions, processes comprised within climate actions are equally as important as both the language and the results. It is on the basis of the confusion surrounding the language adopted as actions geared towards combating CC that this study seeks to examine the opinions/perception of CC actors in three West African nations. It looks at perceived and/or suitable solutions to selected CC-imposed challenges in the midst of socio-economic and environmental concerns. A total of 475 individuals, representing NGOs, public and private organizations involved with CC issues, as well as private persons concerned about CC, were recruited across Nigeria, Niger, and Benin, over a two-year period (April 2017–April 2019). A questionnaire containing 15 items was administered. The results of data analysis using chi-square and Fischer’s exact tests show that the mean number of CC actors differs within and across all three countries for all climate action types against CC-imposed challenges. While CC adaptive plans and projects are thought to yield immediate results, they are also observed to be cheaper in comparison to mitigation and resilience projects.

Investigating the potential impact of 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming levels on crop suitability and planting season over West Africa

West African rainfed agriculture is highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. Global warming is projected to result in higher regional warming and have a strong impact on agriculture. This study specifically examines the impact of global warming levels (GWLs) of 1.5°, 2° and 3 °C relative to 1971–2000 on crop suitability over West Africa. We used 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase5 Global Climate Models (CMIP5 GCMs) downscaled by Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Rossby Centre’s regional Atmospheric model version 4, RCA4, to drive Ecocrop, a crop suitability model, for pearl millet, cassava, groundnut, cowpea, maize and plantain. The results show Ecocrop simulated crop suitability spatial representation with higher suitability, observed to the south of latitude 14°N and lower suitability to its north for 1971–2000 for all crops except for plantain (12°N). The model also simulates the best three planting months within the growing season from September-August over the past climate. Projected changes in crop suitability under the three GWLs 1.5–3.0 °C suggest a spatial suitability expansion for legume and cereal crops, notably in the central southern Sahel zone; root and tuber and plantain in the central Guinea-Savanna zone. In contrast, projected decreases in the crop suitability index value are predicted to the south of 14°N for cereals, root and tuber crops; nevertheless, the areas remain suitable for the crops. A delay of between 1-3 months is projected over the region during the planting month under the three GWLs for legumes, pearl millet and plantain. A two month delay in planting is projected in the south, notably over the Guinea and central Savanna zone with earlier planting of about three months in the Savanna-Sahel zones. The effect of GWL2.0 and GWL3.0 warming in comparison to GWL1.5 °C are more dramatic on cereals and root and tuber crops, especially cassava. All the projected changes in simulated crop suitability in response to climatic variables are statistically significant at 99% confidence level. There is also an increasing trend in the projected crop suitability change across the three warming except for cowpea. This study has implications for improving the resilience of crop production to climate changes, and more broadly, to food security in West Africa.

Robust assessment of the time of emergence of precipitation change in West Africa

The time of emergence (TOE) of climate change is defined as the time when a new climate state emerges from a prior one. TOE assessment is particularly relevant in West Africa, a region highly threatened by climate change and urgently needing trustworthy climate predictions. In this paper, the TOE of precipitation change in West Africa is assessed for the first time, by analyzing 6 precipitation metrics (cumulated precipitation, number of wet and very wet days, onset and length of the rainy season) computed from the output of 29 state-of-the-art climate models. In West Sahel, climate conditions characterized by reduced occurrence of wet days are likely to emerge before 2036, leading to the possible emergence of a dryer climate in 2028–2052. In East Sahel, a wetter precipitation regime characterized by increased occurrence of very wet days is likely to emerge before 2054. Results do not provide a clear indication about a possible climate shift in the onset and length of the rainy season. Although uncertainty in climate model future projections still limits the robust determination of TOE locally, this study provides reliable time constraints to the expected climate shift in West Africa at the sub-regional scale, supporting adaptation measures to the future change in the precipitation regime.

Agricultural productivity in relation to climate and cropland management in West Africa

The climate of West Africa is expected to become more arid due to increased temperature and uncertain rainfall regimes, while its population is expected to grow faster than the rest of the world. As such, increased demand for food will likely coincide with declines in agricultural production in a region where severe undernutrition already occurs. Here, we attempt to discriminate between the impacts of climate and other factors (e.g. land management/degradation) on crop production across West Africa using satellite remote sensing. We identify trends in the land surface phenology and climate of West African croplands between 2000 and 2018. Using the combination of a an attribution framework and residual trend anlaysis, we discriminate between climate and other impacts on crop productivity. The combined effect of rainfall, land surface temperature and solar radiation explains approximately 40% of the variation in cropland productivity over West Africa at the 95% significance level. The largest proportions of croplands with greening trends were observed in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, and the largest proportions with browning trends were in Nigeria, The Gambia and Benin. Climate was responsible for 52% of the greening trends and 25% of the browning trends. Within the other driving factors, changes in phenology explained 18% of the greening and 37% of the browning trends across the region, the use of inputs and irrigation explained 30% of the greening trends and land degradation 38% of the browning trends. These findings have implications for adaptation policies as we map out areas in need of improved land management practices and those where it has proven to be successful.

Contextual Factors and Spatial Patterns of Childhood Malnutrition in Provinces of Burkina Faso

BACKGROUND

Approximately 45% of all children's deaths are associated with malnutrition, and sub-Saharan Africa is hardest hit by this phenomenon. However, information on geographical variations of malnutrition in developing countries is limited. This study examined the geographical distribution and community characteristics associated with child malnutrition in Burkina Faso.

DESIGN

Data from the 2011 Burkina Faso Demographic Health Survey were analyzed. A general Kriging interpolation method was used to generate spatial malnutrition patterns. The global Moran's I test was used to identify significant malnutrition spatial patterns. Generalized estimating equations (GEEs) were fitted to examine the association between community level factors and malnutrition.

RESULTS

Average rates of stunting and wasting in the communities were 32.48% and 15.05%, respectively. Stunting hotspots were observed in the eastern and northeastern parts of Burkina Faso (i.e. Oudolan, Séno and Yagha, among others), while high rates of wasting were observed in the north-central part. The GEE results revealed lower stunting rates in communities with a higher percentage of households with improved sanitation. Communities with higher rates of professionally assisted births were associated with low wasting rates, while communities with higher rates of households with a low wealth index reported higher rates of wasting.

CONCLUSIONS

Spatial statistical models of malnutrition prevalence are useful for indicating hotspots over wide areas and hence, for guiding intervention strategies. This study revealed significant geographical patterns and community factors associated with childhood malnutrition. These factors should be considered in future programs aimed at reducing malnutrition in Burkina Faso.

Determinants of Farm Resilience to Climate Change: The Role of Farmer Entrepreneurship and Value Chain Collaborations

The concept of resilience gained traction in academic, policy, and development discourse in recent years, yet its conceptualization and application at the farm level has received little attention. For instance, recent policy recommendations present farm resilience as a silver bullet in dealing with agricultural risks and uncertainty, and in achieving sustainable agri-food systems. Yet, the question of what determines farm resilience in a smallholder farming set-up remains fuzzy. To address this knowledge gap, we firstly develop a novel conceptual framework based on determinants of farm resilience and farmer adaptive capacity as a pathway through which farm resilience is strengthened. The emphasis on adaptive capacity responds to a conceptual weakness inherent in studies that present socio-ecological systems as static systems. Secondly, based on a literature review, we propose mechanisms through which farmer entrepreneurship, membership in farmer organization, and farmer–buyer relationships may influence farmer adaptive capacity and thereby farm resilience. Based on our conceptual understanding of the determinants of farm resilience, we recommend approaches that augment farmer entrepreneurship, support farmer organizations, and strengthen farmer–buyer relationships.

Comparing smallholder farmers' climate change perception with climate data: the case of Adansi North District of Ghana

This study adopted mixed methods design and employed questionnaire and interview to investigate climate trends and smallholder farmers' perception of climate change as well as the relationship between climate data and farmers' perception, and the determinants of perception in Adansi North District of Ghana. The study randomly and purposively selected 378 respondents and 41 key informants, respectively. Descriptive, inferential, trend and thematic analysis were employed. Results showed that the majority of smallholder farmers have observed increase in intensity (96.8%) and duration (94.7%) of temperature, and delay onset (82.8%) and early cessation (89.2%) of rainfall as well as increase in wind intensity (79.4%). Climate data also revealed rising trends of rainfall, wind speed and temperature. Nevertheless, there was no significant relationship between farmers' perception and climate data. Information from family and friends and government, particularly local institutions and extension service significantly influence farmers' perception. In addition, television and radio were significant predictors of farmers’ perception. The study recommends intensification of climate education, mass awareness and capacity development programmes.

Assessment of Genetic Diversity for Drought, Heat and Combined Drought and Heat Stress Tolerance in Early Maturing Maize Landraces

Climate change is expected to aggravate the effects of drought, heat and combined drought and heat stresses. An important step in developing 'climate smart' maize varieties is to identify germplasm with good levels of tolerance to the abiotic stresses. The primary objective of this study was to identify landraces with combined high yield potential and desirable secondary traits under drought, heat and combined drought and heat stresses. Thirty-three landraces from Burkina Faso (6), Ghana (6) and Togo (21), and three drought-tolerant populations/varieties from the Maize Improvement Program at the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture were evaluated under three conditions, namely managed drought stress, heat stress and combined drought and heat stress, with optimal growing conditions as control, for two years. The phenotypic and genetic correlations between grain yield of the different treatments were very weak, suggesting the presence of independent genetic control of yield to these stresses. However, grain yield under heat and combined drought and heat stresses were highly and positively correlated, indicating that heat-tolerant genotypes would most likely tolerate combined drought and stress. Yield reduction averaged 46% under managed drought stress, 55% under heat stress, and 66% under combined drought and heat stress, which reflected hypo-additive effect of drought and heat stress on grain yield of the maize accessions. Accession GH-3505 was highly tolerant to drought, while GH-4859 and TZm-1353 were tolerant to the three stresses. These landrace accessions can be invaluable sources of genes/alleles for breeding for adaptation of maize to climate change.

Evidence of crop production losses in West Africa due to historical global warming in two crop models

Achieving food security goals in West Africa will depend on the capacity of the agricultural sector to feed the rapidly growing population and to moderate the adverse impacts of climate change. Indeed, a number of studies anticipate a reduction of the crop yield of the main staple food crops in the region in the coming decades due to global warming. Here, we found that crop production might have already been affected by climate change, with significant yield losses estimated in the historical past. We used a large ensemble of historical climate simulations derived from an atmospheric general circulation model and two process-based crop models, SARRA-H and CYGMA, to evaluate the effects of historical climate change on crop production in West Africa. We generated two ensembles of 100 historical simulations of yields of sorghum and millet corresponding to two climate conditions for each crop model. One ensemble is based on a realistic simulation of the actual climate, while the other is based on a climate simulation that does not account for human influences on climate systems (that is, the non-warming counterfactual climate condition). We found that the last simulated decade, 2000–2009, is approximately 1 °C warmer in West Africa in the ensemble accounting for human influences on climate, with more frequent heat and rainfall extremes. These altered climate conditions have led to regional average yield reductions of 10–20% for millet and 5–15% for sorghum in the two crop models. We found that the average annual production losses across West Africa in 2000–2009 associated with historical climate change, relative to a non-warming counterfactual condition (that is, pre-industrial climate), accounted for 2.33–4.02 billion USD for millet and 0.73–2.17 billion USD for sorghum. The estimates of production losses presented here can be a basis for the loss and damage associated with climate change to date and useful in estimating the costs of the adaptation of crop production systems in the region.

Assessing Future Spatio-Temporal Changes in Crop Suitability and Planting Season over West Africa: Using the Concept of Crop-Climate Departure

The changing climate is posing significant threats to agriculture, the most vulnerable sector, and the main source of livelihood in West Africa. This study assesses the impact of the climate-departure on the crop suitability and planting month over West Africa. We used 10 CMIP5 Global climate models bias-corrected simulations downscaled by the CORDEX regional climate model, RCA4 to drive the crop suitability model, Ecocrop. We applied the concept of the crop-climate departure (CCD) to evaluate future changes in the crop suitability and planting month for five crop types, cereals, legumes, fruits, root and tuber and horticulture over the historical and future months. Our result shows a reduction (negative linear correlation) and an expansion (positive linear correlation) in the suitable area and crop suitability index value in the Guinea-Savanna and Sahel (southern Sahel) zone, respectively. The horticulture crop was the most negatively affected with a decrease in the suitable area while cereals and legumes benefited from the expansion in suitable areas into the Sahel zone. In general, CCD would likely lead to a delay in the planting season by 2–4 months except for the orange and early planting dates by about 2–3 months for cassava. No projected changes in the planting month are observed for the plantain and pineapple which are annual crops. The study is relevant for a short and long-term adaptation option and planning for future changes in the crop suitability and planting month to improve food security in the region.

Defining Crop–climate Departure in West Africa: Improved Understanding of the Timing of Future Changes in Crop Suitability

The future climate is projected to change rapidly with potentially severe consequences for global food security. This study aims to improve the understanding of future changes in the suitability of crop growth conditions. It proposes a definition of crop realization, of the climate departure from recent historical variability, or crop–climate departure. Four statistically downscaled and bias-corrected Global Climate Models (GCMs): CCCMA, CNRM5, NOAA-GFDL, and MIROC5 performed simulations for the period 1960–2100 under the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5 scenario to compute 20 year moving averages at 5-year increments. These were used to drive a crop suitability model, Ecocrop, for eight different crops across the three Food and Agriculture Organizations (FAO) AgroEcological Zones (AEZs) of West Africa (Guinea, Sahel, and Savanna). Simulations using historical climate data found that all crops except maize had a suitability index value (SIV) ≥0.50 outside the Sahel region, equivalent to conditions being suitable or strongly suitable. Simulations of future climate reveal that warming is projected to constrain crop growth suitability for cassava and pineapple in the Guinea zone. A potential for the northward expansion of maize is projected by the end of the century, suggesting a future opportunity for its growth in the southern Sahel zone. Crop growth conditions for mango and pearl millet remain suitable across all three AEZs. In general, crops in the Savanna AEZ are the most sensitive to the projected changes in climate. The changes in the crop–climate relationship suggests a future constraint in crop suitability, which could be detrimental to future food security in West Africa. Further studies to explore associated short- and long-term adaptation options are recommended.

Rainfall trends in the African Sahel: Characteristics, processes, and causes

Sahel rainfall is dynamically linked to the global Hadley cell and to the regional monsoon circulation. It is therefore susceptible to forcings from remote oceans and regional land alike. Warming of the oceans enhances the stability of the tropical atmosphere and weakens deep ascent in the Hadley circulation. Warming of the Sahara and of the nearby oceans changes the structure and position of the regional shallow circulation and allows more of the intense convective systems that determine seasonal rain accumulation. These processes can explain the observed interannual to multidecadal variability. Sea surface temperature anomalies were the dominant forcing of the drought of the 1970s and 1980s. In most recent decades, seasonal rainfall amounts have partially recovered, but rainy season characteristics have changed: rainfall is more intense and intermittent and wetting is concentrated in the late rainy season and away from the west coast. Similar subseasonal and subregional differences in rainfall trends characterize the simulated response to increased greenhouse gases, suggesting an anthropogenic influence. While uncertainty in future projections remains, confidence in them is encouraged by the recognition that seasonal mean rainfall depends on large-scale drivers of atmospheric circulations that are well resolved by current climate models. Nevertheless, observational and modeling efforts are needed to provide more refined projections of rainfall changes, expanding beyond total accumulation to metrics of intraseasonal characteristics and risk of extreme events, and coordination between climate scientists and stakeholders is needed to generate relevant information that is useful even under deep uncertainty. This article is categorized under:Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Modern Climate Change.

Adapting to climate change: Reflections of peasant farmers in Mashonaland West Province of Zimbabwe

Climate change is projected to have negative impacts on agricultural production in sub-Saharan Africa and this is likely to continue for decades, unless adaptation measures are implemented. The changing climate is a global challenge to sustainable livelihoods and economic development. Peasant farmers in Zimbabwe depend entirely on rain-fed agriculture, a situation that makes agriculture and rural livelihoods vulnerable to climate change. This paper discusses the findings of the study carried out in the Zvimba District amongst peasant farmers on their knowledge of climate change impacts and adaptation strategies. Semi-structured interviews, observations and document analysis were used as methodologies for data collection for the study. Purposeful sampling technique was applied to 40 peasant farmers. Qualitative data from interviews and focus group discussion were analysed using context analysis. Households acknowledged that rainfall amount has decreased over the last 30 years. Such changes have reduced agricultural productivity, and in response, communities have developed multiple adaptation strategies such as harnessing social capital, crop and livelihood diversification, engaging in small businesses and water harvesting for livestock keeping. The study concludes that there is a need to recognise the validity of indigenous knowledge and an inventory should be created for future use. The paper notes that diversification of adaptive strategies is vital for sustainable livelihood in a changing climate.

Keywords

climate change; adaptation; Zimbabwe; livelihood diversification.

Projected Changes in Intra-Season Rainfall Characteristics in the Niger River Basin, West Africa

The magnitude and timing of seasonal rainfall is vitally important to the health and vitality of key agro-ecological and social-economic systems of the Niger River Basin. Given this unique context, knowledge concerning how climate change is likely to impact future rainfall characteristics and patterns is critically needed for adaptation and mitigation planning. Using nine ensemble bias-corrected climate model projection results under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (RCP—Representative Concentration Pathway) emissions scenarios at the mid-future time period, 2021/2025-2050 from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments (CORDEX) dataset; this study provides a comprehensive analysis of the projected changes in rainfall characteristics in three agro-ecological zones of the Niger River Basin. The results show an increase in the average rainfall of about 5%, 10–20% and 10–15% for the Southern Guinea, Northern Guinea and Sahelian zones, respectively, relative to the baseline, 1981/1985–2005. On the other hand, the change in future rainfall intensities are largely significant and the frequency of rainfall at the low, heavy and extreme rainfall events in the future decrease at most locations in the Niger River Basin. The results also showed an increase in the frequency of moderate rainfall events at all locations in the basin. However, in the Northern Guinea and Sahel locations, there is an increase in the frequency of projected heavy and extreme rainfall events. The results reveal a shift in the future onset/cessation and a shortening of the duration of the rainy season in the basin. Specifically, the mean date of rainfall onset will be delayed by between 10 and 32 days. The mean onset of cessation will also be delayed by between 10 and 21 days. It is posited that the projected rainfall changes pose serious risks for food security of the region and may require changes in the cropping patterns and management.

Performance Assessment of Drought Tolerant Maize Hybrids under Combined Drought and Heat Stress

Drought and high temperature are two major factors limiting maize productivity in sub-Saharan Africa. An increase in temperature above 30 ^°C reduces yield by 1% under optimal rain-fed condition and by 1.7% under drought stress (DS) and up to 40% under combined drought and heat stress (DSHTS). Approaches that improve performance under the two stresses are essential to sustain productivity. The objectives of this study were to (i) assess the extent of variation in tolerance to DSHTS from among the existing best drought tolerant (DT) hybrids; (ii) examine the response patterns of the hybrids to DSHTS; (iii) identify traits that contributed to better performance under DSHTS; and (iv) select the best hybrids with tolerance to DSHTS stress. We evaluated 40 DT hybrids under DSHTS, DS, and well-watered (WW) conditions for three years. Highly significant (p < 0.001) differences were found among hybrids for grain yield and other traits. Moderately to low repeatability values were detected for grain yield under DS (0.63) and under DSHTS (0.48). Grain yield under DS was not correlated with grain yield under DSHTS (r = 0.29; p = 0.06), but it was correlated with grain yield under WW (r = 0.74; p < 0.001). Grain yield was strongly correlated with ears per plant, ear and pant aspects, days to anthesis and silking under both DS and DSHTS. Tassel blast accounted for 28% of the yield reduction under DSHTS. The top five DT hybrids produced 9 to 26% more grain yields than the best commercial hybrid. Three hybrids produced high grain yields under DTHTS and DS as well as under WW. These hybrids will be tested further in collaboration with partners for possible release.

Response to early drought stress and identification of QTLs controlling biomass production under drought in pearl millet

Pearl millet plays a major role in food security in arid and semi-arid areas of Africa and India. However, it lags behind the other cereal crops in terms of genetic improvement. The recent sequencing of its genome opens the way to the use of modern genomic tools for breeding. Our study aimed at identifying genetic components involved in early drought stress tolerance as a first step toward the development of improved pearl millet varieties or hybrids. A panel of 188 inbred lines from West Africa was phenotyped under early drought stress and well-irrigated conditions. We found a strong impact of drought stress on yield components. This impact was variable between inbred lines. We then performed an association analysis with a total of 392,493 SNPs identified using Genotyping-by-Sequencing (GBS). Correcting for genetic relatedness, genome wide association study identified QTLs for biomass production in early drought stress conditions and for stay-green trait. In particular, genes involved in the sirohaem and wax biosynthesis pathways were found to co-locate with two of these QTLs. Our results might contribute to breed pearl millet lines with improved yield under drought stress.