COVID-19: Rethinking the Lockdown Groupthink

Long-term effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on total disease burden in parsimonious epidemiological models

The recent global COVID-19 pandemic resulted in governments enacting non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) targeted at reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2. But the NPIs also affected the transmission of viruses causing non-target seasonal respiratory diseases, including influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). In many countries, the NPIs were found to reduce cases of such seasonal respiratory diseases, but there is also evidence that subsequent relaxation of NPIs led to outbreaks of these diseases that were larger than pre-pandemic ones, due to the accumulation of susceptible individuals prior to relaxation. Therefore, the net long-term effects of NPIs on the total disease burden of non-target diseases remain unclear. Knowledge of this is important for infectious disease management and maintenance of public health. In this study, we shed light on this issue for the simplified scenario of a set of NPIs that prevent or reduce transmission of a seasonal respiratory disease for about a year and are then removed, using mathematical analyses and numerical simulations of a suite of four epidemiological models with varying complexity and generality. The model parameters were estimated using empirical data pertaining to seasonal respiratory diseases and covered a wide range. Our results showed that NPIs reduced the total disease burden of a non-target seasonal respiratory disease in the long-term. Expressed as a percentage of population size, the reduction was greater for larger values of the basic reproduction number and the immunity loss rate, reflecting larger outbreaks and hence more infections averted by imposition of NPIs. Our study provides a foundation for exploring the effects of NPIs on total disease burden in more-complex scenarios.

Working effectively with consumers: Perspectives from students, teachers, nurses, and consumers

Preparing enrolled nurses (ENs) to effectively work with mental health consumers is crucial to meeting Australia's healthcare demands. This qualitative study aimed to explore various stakeholders' perceptions regarding the mental health knowledge, skills, and attributes (KSAs) required by ENs to engage with individuals experiencing mental health issues, thus guiding future training priorities. The sample comprised 44 participants including 18 students, 3 graduate ENs, 5 experienced ENs, 5 registered nurses (RNs), 4 nurse unit managers (NUMs), 5 teachers, and 5 consumers of mental health services. Focus groups were used to collect data from the students, whilst individual interviews were conducted with all other participants. A thematic analysis revealed communication was the most vital skill for effectively working with mental health consumers. Skills such as critical thinking and clinical reasoning were also deemed crucial, given the volatile nature of the mental health inpatient environment, necessitating effective responses to acute escalations to prevent adverse outcomes for both staff and consumers. Essential knowledge components included understanding mental health disorders, symptoms, and treatments, particularly medications used for mental health issues. Participants also emphasised the importance of attributes like confidence and empathy in supporting and caring for consumers, who often experienced trauma and vulnerability. These findings provide valuable insights into the content that should be incorporated into the diploma of nursing (DN) training to produce competent graduate ENs.

Ethics of Nudging in the COVID-19 Crisis and the Necessary Return to the Principles of Shared Decision Making: A Critical Review

Nudging, a controversial technique for modifying people's behavior in a predictable way, is claimed to preserve freedom of choice while simultaneously influencing it. Nudging had been largely confined to situations such as promoting healthy eating choices but has been employed in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) crisis in a shift towards measures that involve significantly less choice, such as shoves and behavioral prods. Shared decision making (SDM), a method for direct involvement and autonomy, is an alternative approach to communicate risk. Predominantly peer-reviewed scientific publications from standard literature databases like PubMed, PsycInfo, and Psyndex were evaluated in a narrative review. The so-called fear nudges, as well as the dissemination of strongly emotionalizing or moralizing messages can lead to intense psycho-physical stress. The use of these nudges by specialized units during the COVID-19 pandemic generated a societal atmosphere of fear that precipitated a deterioration of the mental and physical health of the population. Major recommendations of the German COVID-19 Snapshot Monitoring (COSMO) study, which are based on elements of nudging and coercive measures, do not comply with ethical principles, basic psychological principles, or evidence-based data. SDM was misused in the COVID-19 crisis, which helped to achieve one-sided goals of governments. The emphasis on utilitarian thinking is criticized and the unethical behavior of decision makers is explained by both using the concept of moral disengagement and the maturity level of coping strategies. There should be a return to an open-ended, democratic, and pluralistic scientific debate without using nudges. It is therefore necessary to return to the origins of SDM.

Impact of COVID-19 on the Utilization of HIV Testing and Linkage Services in Sierra Leone: Experience from Three Public Health Facilities in Freetown

The COVID-19 pandemic adversely affected the delivery of essential health services globally. In this study, we aimed to assess the impact of the pandemic on HIV testing and linkage services at three public health facilities in Freetown, Sierra Leone. We conducted a retrospective study to assess the impact of COVID-19 on HIV testing and linkage to treatment services (HTS) at Connaught Hospital (CH-tertiary), Lumley Government Hospital (LGH-secondary) and George Brooke Community Health Center (GBC-primary) in Freetown. Statistical analyses were conducted in Stata (16.1, StataCorp LLC, College Station, TX). Intra-pandemic HTS (2020) and HTS during recovery (2021) were compared with pre-pandemic HTS (2019). Of the 8538 people tested for HIV in the three facilities, 4929 (57.5%) visited CH. Only 2249 people were tested for HIV in 2020 compared to 3825 in 2019 (difference: - 41.2%, P < 0.001). Fewer people were also tested in 2021 (difference: - 35.6% P < 0.001). The largest reductions in testing in 2020 occurred in women (- 47.7%), children under 15 (- 95.2%), married people (- 42.6%), and CH (- 46.2%). Overall, 1369 (16.0%) people were positive for HIV; CH (878, 17.9%), LGH (469, 15.6%) and GBC (22, 3.5%). The likelihood of a positive HIV test was 26% lower in 2020 than 2019 (PR 0.74; 95% CI 0.64-0.85; P < 0.001), but 16% higher in 2021 than 2019 (PR 1.16; 95% CI 1.03-1.30; P < 0.05). Of the 1369 HIV diagnosis, 526 (38.4%) were linked to care. We found significant disruptions in HIV testing and linkage services at different levels of service delivery during the COVID-19 pandemic, underscoring the need to strengthen essential health services during public health emergencies.

Is society caught up in a Death Spiral? Modeling societal demise and its reversal

Just like an army of ants caught in an ant mill, individuals, groups and even whole societies are sometimes caught up in a Death Spiral, a vicious cycle of self-reinforcing dysfunctional behavior characterized by continuous flawed decision making, myopic single-minded focus on one (set of) solution(s), denial, distrust, micromanagement, dogmatic thinking and learned helplessness. We propose the term Death Spiral Effect to describe this difficult-to-break downward spiral of societal decline. Specifically, in the current theory-building review we aim to: (a) more clearly define and describe the Death Spiral Effect; (b) model the downward spiral of societal decline as well as an upward spiral; (c) describe how and why individuals, groups and even society at large might be caught up in a Death Spiral; and (d) offer a positive way forward in terms of evidence-based solutions to escape the Death Spiral Effect. Management theory hints on the occurrence of this phenomenon and offers turn-around leadership as solution. On a societal level strengthening of democracy may be important. Prior research indicates that historically, two key factors trigger this type of societal decline: rising inequalities creating an upper layer of elites and a lower layer of masses; and dwindling (access to) resources. Historical key markers of societal decline are a steep increase in inequalities, government overreach, over-integration (interdependencies in networks) and a rapidly decreasing trust in institutions and resulting collapse of legitimacy. Important issues that we aim to shed light on are the behavioral underpinnings of decline, as well as the question if and how societal decline can be reversed. We explore the extension of these theories from the company/organization level to the society level, and make use of insights from both micro-, meso-, and macro-level theories (e.g., Complex Adaptive Systems and collapsology, the study of the risks of collapse of industrial civilization) to explain this process of societal demise. Our review furthermore draws on theories such as Social Safety Theory, Conservation of Resources Theory, and management theories that describe the decline and fall of groups, companies and societies, as well as offer ways to reverse this trend.

Do Scholars Respond Faster Than Google Trends in Discussing COVID-19 Issues? An Approach to Textual Big Data

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has posed various difficulties for policymakers, such as the identification of health issues, establishment of policy priorities, formulation of regulations, and promotion of economic competitiveness. Evidence-based practices and data-driven decision-making have been recognized as valuable tools for improving the policymaking process. Nevertheless, due to the abundance of data, there is a need to develop sophisticated analytical techniques and tools to efficiently extract and analyze the data. Methods: Using Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, we categorize the policy responses into 6 different categories: (a) containment and closure, (b) health systems, (c) vaccines, (d) economic, (e) country, and (f) others. We proposed a novel research framework to compare the response times of the scholars and the general public. To achieve this, we analyzed more than 400,000 research abstracts published over the past 2.5 years, along with text information from Google Trends as a proxy for topics of public concern. We introduced an innovative text-mining method: coherent topic clustering to analyze the huge number of abstracts. Results: Our results show that the research abstracts not only discussed almost all of the COVID-19 issues earlier than Google Trends did, but they also provided more in-depth coverage. This should help policymakers identify core COVID-19 issues and act earlier. Besides, our clustering method can better reflect the main messages of the abstracts than a recent advanced deep learning-based topic modeling tool. Conclusion: Scholars generally have a faster response in discussing COVID-19 issues than Google Trends.

Behavioral intentions and perceived stress under isolated environment

BACKGROUND

Isolation is a special environment that will affect the mental health and behavior of individuals. The current study was to explore the relationship between behavior intention (BI) and perceived stress in isolated environment during Shanghai Omicron pandemic.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted between April 8 and 14, 2022. Three self-reported questionnaires were used to evaluate quarantine duration, stress perception, and BI. A total of 1042 participants in Shanghai under quarantine at home were included by random sampling. Logistic regression and one-way variance analysis were used to determine the risk factors related to BI.

RESULTS

The finding implicated negative BI was more reported by the population of males, with lower educational background, with jobs, and youngers. A negative association existed between perceived stress and BI (B = -1.004, p = .003, OR = 0.367, 95% CI = .191-.703). The proportion of positive BI decreased with quarantined duration, whereas the negative BI seemed vibrate upward then downward.

CONCLUSION

There existed a significant effect of quarantined days on perceived stress with different BIs. High perceived stress was a risk factor of positive BI. This preliminary study has significance to understand the effect of compulsory measures on BI and for policies makers to take a psychosocial perspective to consider the effective pandemic intervention strategies.

Attitudes and perceptions towards public health safety measures during a global health crisis: Social and personal consequences

The COVID-19 pandemic that spread throughout the globe has significantly altered our social and personal relationships. During the early phase of the pandemic, pharmaceutical interventions such as vaccine research and production were still in development, with international health agencies and governments promoting public health safety measures such as limiting mobility, school and work closures, lockdowns, economic incentives, mask-wearing, social distancing, quarantine, and hygiene to reduce the spread and flatten the curve regarding transmission and hospitalization. During the early wave (May 2020 through July 2020), we utilized a qualitative longitudinal research design coupled with weekly Zoom diary entries to investigate participant (n = 14) experiences. In doing so, we captured participant attitudes towards public health safety measures, as well as perceptions of social and interpersonal relationships during the pandemic. The main themes that emerged in our findings include feelings of safety and preparedness, personal accountability and collective responsibility, and changes to social life and relationships. While individuals have learned how to live with the pandemic, and have a new sense of normalcy, lessons learned from the impact of public health measures and social relationships have applicability moving forward post-pandemic. In particular, how to best protect against the deleterious effects of isolation during a future public health crisis.

To vaccinate or to isolate? Establishing which intervention leads to measurable mortality reduction during the COVID-19 Delta wave in Poland

Background

During the Delta variant COVID-19 wave in Poland there were serious regional differences in vaccination rates and discrepancies in the enforcement of pandemic preventive measures, which allowed us to assess the relative effectiveness of the policies implemented.

Methods

Creating a model that would predict mortality based on vaccination rates among the most vulnerable groups and the timing of the wave peak enabled us to calculate to what extent flattening the curve reduced mortality. Subsequently, a model was created to assess which preventive measures delayed the peak of infection waves. Combining those two models allowed us to estimate the relative effectiveness of those measures.

Results

Flattening the infection curve worked: according to our model, each week of postponing the peak of the wave reduced excess deaths by 1.79%. Saving a single life during the Delta wave required one of the following: either the vaccination of 57 high-risk people, or 1,258 low-risk people to build herd immunity, or the isolation of 334 infected individuals for a cumulative period of 10.1 years, or finally quarantining 782 contacts for a cumulative period of 19.3 years.

Conclusions

Except for the most disciplined societies, vaccination of high-risk individuals followed by vaccinating low-risk groups should have been the top priority instead of relying on isolation and quarantine measures which can incur disproportionately higher social costs. Our study demonstrates that even in a country with uniform policies, implementation outcomes varied, highlighting the importance of fine-tuning policies to regional specificity.

Surfing Corona waves - instead of breaking them: Rethinking the role of natural immunity in COVID-19 policy

In the first two years of the pandemic, COVID-19 response policies have aimed to break Corona waves through non-pharmaceutical interventions and mass vaccination. However, for long-term strategies to be effective and efficient, and to avoid massive disruption and social harms, it is crucial to introduce the role of natural immunity in our thinking about COVID-19  (or future "Disease-X") control and prevention. We argue that any Corona or similar virus control policy must appropriately balance five key elements simultaneously: balancing the various fundamental interests of the nation, as well as the various interventions within the health sector; tailoring the prevention measures and treatments to individual needs; limiting social interaction restrictions; and balancing the role of vaccinations against the role of naturally induced immunity. Given the high infectivity of SARS-CoV-2 and its differential impact on population segments, we examine this last element in more detail and argue that an important aspect of 'living with the virus' will be to better understand the role of naturally induced immunity in our overall COVID-19 policy response. In our eyes, a policy approach that factors natural immunity should be considered for persons without major comorbidities and those having 'encountered' the antigen in the past.

Long COVID as a functional somatic symptom disorder caused by abnormally precise prior expectations during Bayesian perceptual processing: A new hypothesis and implications for pandemic response

This review proposes a model of Long-COVID where the constellation of symptoms are in fact genuinely experienced persistent physical symptoms that are usually functional in nature and therefore potentially reversible, that is, Long-COVID is a somatic symptom disorder. First, we describe what is currently known about Long-COVID in children and adults. Second, we examine reported "Long-Pandemic" effects that create a risk for similar somatic symptoms to develop in non-COVID-19 patients. Third, we describe what was known about somatization and somatic symptom disorder before the COVID-19 pandemic, and suggest that by analogy, Long-COVID may best be conceptualized as one of these disorders, with similar symptoms and predisposing, precipitating, and perpetuating factors. Fourth, we review the phenomenon of mass sociogenic (functional) illness, and the concept of nocebo effects, and suggest that by analogy, Long-COVID is compatible with these descriptions. Fifth, we describe the current theoretical model of the mechanism underlying functional disorders, the Bayesian predictive coding model for perception. This model accounts for moderators that can make symptom inferences functionally inaccurate and therefore can explain how to understand common predisposing, precipitating, and perpetuating factors. Finally, we discuss the implications of this framework for improved public health messaging during a pandemic, with recommendations for the management of Long-COVID symptoms in healthcare systems. We argue that the current public health approach has induced fear of Long-COVID in the population, including from constant messaging about disabling symptoms of Long-COVID and theorizing irreversible tissue damage as the cause of Long-COVID. This has created a self-fulfilling prophecy by inducing the very predisposing, precipitating, and perpetuating factors for the syndrome. Finally, we introduce the term "Pandemic-Response Syndrome" to describe what previously was labeled Long-COVID. This alternative perspective aims to stimulate research and serve as a lesson learned to avoid a repeat performance in the future.

COVID-19 Pandemic: Did Strict Mobility Restrictions Save Lives and Healthcare Costs in Maharashtra, India?

INTRODUCTION

Maharashtra, India, remained a hotspot during the COVID-19 pandemic. After the initial complete lockdown, the state slowly relaxed restrictions. We aim to estimate the lockdown's impact on COVID-19 cases and associated healthcare costs.

METHODS

Using daily case data for 84 days (9 March-31 May 2020), we modeled the epidemic's trajectory and predicted new cases for different phases of lockdown. We fitted log-linear models to estimate the growth rate, basic (R₀), daily reproduction number (R_e), and case doubling time. Based on pre-restriction and Phase 1 R₀, we predicted new cases for the rest of the restriction phases, and we compared them with the actual number of cases during each phase. Furthermore, using the published and gray literature, we estimated the costs and savings of implementing these restrictions for the projected period, and we performed a sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

The estimated median R₀ during the different phases was 1.14 (95% CI: 0.85, 1.45) for pre-lockdown, 1.67 (95% CI: 1.50, 1.82) for phase 1 (strict mobility restrictions), 1.24 (95% CI: 1.12, 1.35) for phase 2 (extension of phase 1 with no restrictions on agricultural and essential services), 1.12 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.23) for phase 3 (extension of phase 2 with mobility relaxations in areas with few infections), and 1.05 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.123) for phase 4 (implementation of localized lockdowns in high-case-load areas with fewer restrictions on other areas), respectively. The corresponding doubling time rate for cases (in days) was 17.78 (95% CI: 5.61, -15.19), 3.87 (95% CI: 3.15, 5.00), 10.37 (95% CI: 7.10, 19.30), 20.31 (95% CI: 10.70, 212.50), and 45.56 (95% CI: 20.50, -204.52). For the projected period, the cases could have reached 631,819 without the lockdown, as the actual reported number of cases was 64,975. From a healthcare perspective, the estimated total value of averted cases was INR 194.73 billion (USD 2.60 billion), resulting in net cost savings of 84.05%. The Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) per Quality Adjusted Life Year (QALY) for implementing the lockdown, rather than observing the natural course of the pandemic, was INR 33,812.15 (USD 450.83).

CONCLUSION

Maharashtra's early public health response delayed the pandemic and averted new cases and deaths during the first wave of the pandemic. However, we recommend that such restrictions be carefully used while considering the local socio-economic realities in countries like India.

Rethinking the Ethics of the Covid-19 Pandemic Lockdowns

Public health responses to the Covid-19 pandemic included various measures to mitigate the spread of the virus. Among these, the most restrictive was a broad category referred to as "lockdowns." We argue that the reasoning offered in favor of extended lockdowns-those lasting several months or longer-did not adequately account for a host of countervailing considerations, including the impact on mental illness, education, employment, and marginalized communities as well as health, educational, and economic inequities. Furthermore, justifications offered for extended lockdowns set aside a basic tenet of public health ethics: restrictions on liberty and autonomy should be the least intrusive means of achieving the desired end. Since it is now clear that extended lockdowns cause severe harm to many vulnerable populations, the burden of proof is on those who would advocate for them, and there must be a much higher bar to implement an extended lockdown, with high-quality evidence that the benefit would substantially exceed its harm.

Dramatic increase of suicidality in children and adolescents after COVID-19 pandemic start: A two-year longitudinal study

The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the mental health of the youngest, worsening their emotional well-being. The demand for care in psychiatric emergencies may indirectly reflect the mental health state of children and adolescents and the emotional consequences of the pandemic. Moreover, suicidality can be considered a marker of severity in this population group. Therefore, we have aimed to longitudinally describe the number of children and adolescents attended in the psychiatry emergency department due to suicidal ideation or attempts and, to explore differences in suicidality according to gender and age. A retrospective study was carried out in the University Hospital of San Juan, Alicante, Spain, from January 01, 2018 to December 31, 2021. A total of 138 participants under 18 years requesting psychiatric care due to suicidal ideation or attempts were included. The sample was composed by 35% of males and the mean age was 14.8 years old (SD = 2.2). The number of cases per year range from 10 in 2018 to 88 in 2021. Attendances were significantly higher between 2021 and the three previous years. Besides, the number of attentions registered in the last 9 months of 2021 equals those that occurred in the entire previous period. Most of the cases were girls and middle adolescents. Suicide ideation or attempts have skyrocketed in children and adolescents. This alarming increase presents a one-year lag peak from the COVID-19 outbreak and continues until the end of 2021. Girls and those over 12 years have been identified as risk groups to present suicidal ideation or attempts.

Are We Facing a Tsunami of Vaccine Hesitancy or Outdated Pandemic Policy in Times of Omicron? Analyzing Changes of COVID-19 Vaccination Trends in Poland

In this study, we analyzed Polish COVID-19 vaccination data until January 2023 from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control to understand individual decision making during the milder Omicron wave. Our findings show a general decline in subsequent vaccine uptake. As the number of government-provided doses increased, completion rates among certain low-risk groups dropped to less than 1%. Elderly individuals, especially those aged 70–79, showed greater adherence but also exhibited decreased interest in subsequent boosters. Healthcare workers exhibited a dramatic shift in their attitude, disregarding the recommended schedule. The overwhelming majority opted out of receiving the second boosters, while the remaining individuals adjusted their timing based on infection trends or the availability of updated boosters. Two factors positively influenced vaccination decisions: societal influence and the availability of updated boosters. Lower-risk individuals were more likely to postpone vaccination until updated boosters were available. Our findings highlight that while Polish policy aligns with international guidelines, it fails to garner significant adherence from the Polish population. Previous studies have shown that vaccinating low-risk groups resulted in more sick days due to adverse events following immunization than the days gained by preventing infection. Consequently, we advocate for the official abandonment of this policy, as its practical abandonment has already taken place, and persisting in pretending otherwise only serves to erode public trust. Therefore, we propose a shift toward treating COVID-19-like influenza with vaccination for vulnerable individuals and those who have close contact with them before the season.

Are We Facing a Tsunami of Vaccine Hesitancy or Outdated Pandemic Policy in Times of Omicron? Analyzing Changes of COVID-19 Vaccination Trends in Poland

In this study, we analyzed Polish COVID-19 vaccination data until January 2023 from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control to understand individual decision making during the milder Omicron wave. Our findings show a general decline in subsequent vaccine uptake. As the number of government-provided doses increased, completion rates among certain low-risk groups dropped to less than 1%. Elderly individuals, especially those aged 70-79, showed greater adherence but also exhibited decreased interest in subsequent boosters. Healthcare workers exhibited a dramatic shift in their attitude, disregarding the recommended schedule. The overwhelming majority opted out of receiving the second boosters, while the remaining individuals adjusted their timing based on infection trends or the availability of updated boosters. Two factors positively influenced vaccination decisions: societal influence and the availability of updated boosters. Lower-risk individuals were more likely to postpone vaccination until updated boosters were available. Our findings highlight that while Polish policy aligns with international guidelines, it fails to garner significant adherence from the Polish population. Previous studies have shown that vaccinating low-risk groups resulted in more sick days due to adverse events following immunization than the days gained by preventing infection. Consequently, we advocate for the official abandonment of this policy, as its practical abandonment has already taken place, and persisting in pretending otherwise only serves to erode public trust. Therefore, we propose a shift toward treating COVID-19-like influenza with vaccination for vulnerable individuals and those who have close contact with them before the season.

COVID-19 pandemic-related depression and anxiety under lockdown: The chain mediating effect of self-efficacy and perceived stress

Objective

In early March 2022, the highly contagious Omicron variant rapidly emerged in Shanghai. This study aimed to explore the prevalence and associated factors of depression and anxiety in isolated or quarantined populations under lockdown.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was conducted between May 12 and 25, 2022. The depressive and anxiety symptoms, perceived stress, self-efficacy and perceived social support in the 167 participants under isolated or quarantined were examined using the Patient Health Questionnaires-9 (PHQ-9), the Generalized Anxiety Disorder-7 (GAD-7), the Perceived Stress Scale-10 (PSS-10), the General Self-Efficacy Scale (GSES) and the Perceived Social Support Scale (PSSS). Data on demographic information were also collected.

Findings

The prevalence of depression and anxiety in isolated or quarantined populations was estimated to be 12 and 10.8%, respectively. Higher education level, being healthcare workers, being infected, longer duration of segregation and higher perceived stress level were identified as risk factors for depression and anxiety. Furthermore, the relationship between perceived social support and depression (anxiety) was mediated not only by perceived stress but also the chain of self-efficacy and perceived stress.

Conclusion

Being infected, higher education level, longer duration of segregation and higher perceived stress were associated with higher levels of depression and anxiety among isolated or quarantined populations under lockdown. The formulation of psychological strategies that promote one's perceived social support and self-efficacy as well as reduce perceived stress is supposed to be drawn.

Lessons from COVID-19 for improving diagnostic access in future pandemics

Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, we have witnessed the critical and expanding roles of testing. Despite the development of over a thousand brand of tests - with some close to fulfilling the 4As (accuracy, access, affordability, and actionability via quick time to result) of an ideal diagnostic test - gaps persisted in developing tests to fit public health needs, and in providing equitable access. Here, we review how the use cases for testing evolved over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, with associated engineering challenges (and potential lessons) at each phase for test developers. We summarise lessons learnt from the recent epidemic and propose four areas for future cooperative effort among test developers, government regulators and policy makers, public health experts, and the public: 1) develop new models for public sector funding and research and development; 2) increase testing capacity by investing in adaptable open-platform technologies at every level of the healthcare system; 3) build data connectivity infrastructures to support a connected diagnostic system as a backbone for surveillance; and 4) facilitate the rapid translation of innovation into use through a coordinated framework for regulatory approval and policy development.

Transmission of COVID-19 in Nightlife, Household, and Health Care Settings in Tokyo, Japan, in 2020

IMPORTANCE

There have been few studies on the heterogeneous interconnection of COVID-19 outbreaks occurring in different social settings using robust, surveillance epidemiological data.

OBJECTIVES

To describe the characteristics of COVID-19 transmission within different social settings and to evaluate settings associated with onward transmission to other settings.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This is a case series study of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases in Tokyo between January 23 and December 5, 2020, when vaccination was not yet implemented. Using epidemiological investigation data collected by public health centers, epidemiological links were identified and classified into 7 transmission settings: imported, nightlife, dining, workplace, household, health care, and other.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The number of cases per setting and the likelihood of generating onward transmissions were compared between different transmission settings.

RESULTS

Of the 44 054 confirmed COVID-19 cases in this study, 25 241 (57.3%) were among male patients, and the median (IQR) age of patients was 36 (26-52) years. Transmission settings were identified in 13 122 cases, including 6768 household, 2733 health care, and 1174 nightlife cases. More than 6600 transmission settings were detected, and nightlife (72 of 380 [18.9%]; P < .001) and health care (119 [36.2%]; P < .001) settings were more likely to involve 5 or more cases than dining, workplace, household, and other settings. Nightlife cases appeared in the earlier phase of the epidemic, while household and health care cases appeared later. After adjustment for transmission setting, sex, age group, presence of symptoms, and wave, household and health care cases were less likely to generate onward transmission compared with nightlife cases (household: adjusted odds ratio, 0.03; 95% CI, 0.02-0.05; health care: adjusted odds ratio, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.41-0.79). Household settings were associated with intergenerational transmission, while nonhousehold settings mainly comprised transmission between the same age group. Among 30 932 cases without identified transmission settings, cases with a history of visiting nightlife establishments were more likely to generate onward transmission to nonhousehold settings (adjusted odds ratio, 5.30 [95% CI, 4.64-6.05]; P < .001) than those without such history.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this case series study, COVID-19 cases identified in nightlife settings were associated with a higher likelihood of spreading COVID-19 than household and health care cases. Surveillance and interventions targeting nightlife settings should be prioritized to disrupt COVID-19 transmission, especially in the early stage of an epidemic.

Use of Bluetooth contact tracing technology to model COVID-19 quarantine policies in high-risk closed populations

Containment measures in high-risk closed settings, like migrant worker (MW) dormitories, are critical for mitigating emerging infectious disease outbreaks and protecting potentially vulnerable populations in outbreaks such as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The direct impact of social distancing measures can be assessed through wearable contact tracing devices. Here, we developed an individual-based model using data collected through a Bluetooth wearable device that collected 33.6M and 52.8M contact events in two dormitories in Singapore, one apartment style and the other a barrack style, to assess the impact of measures to reduce the social contact of cases and their contacts. The simulation of highly detailed contact networks accounts for different infrastructural levels, including room, floor, block, and dormitory, and intensity in terms of being regular or transient. Via a branching process model, we then simulated outbreaks that matched the prevalence during the COVID-19 outbreak in the two dormitories and explored alternative scenarios for control. We found that strict isolation of all cases and quarantine of all contacts would lead to very low prevalence but that quarantining only regular contacts would lead to only marginally higher prevalence but substantially fewer total man-hours lost in quarantine. Reducing the density of contacts by 30% through the construction of additional dormitories was modelled to reduce the prevalence by 14 and 9% under smaller and larger outbreaks, respectively. Wearable contact tracing devices may be used not just for contact tracing efforts but also to inform alternative containment measures in high-risk closed settings.

Social capital and the COVID-19 pandemic threat: The Russian experience

Social capital is an important resource for the wellbeing of both the individual and society. Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, many studies have been conducted to explore the role of social capital in coping with the negative consequences of the pandemic. However, how the pandemic itself can affect the social capital of people has yet to be studied. Try to fill this gap, we aimed at testing the association between the individually perceived coronavirus threat and such indicators of social capital as general social trust, institutional trust, and the quality of various types of people's social relationships (with family, friends, colleagues, neighbors, residents of a locality, residents of a country). Data were collected in different regions of the Russian Federation for a convenience sample of 500 respondents. The study found that the individually perceived coronavirus threat was positively associated with institutional trust, but not with general social trust. Moreover, this covariation was moderated by age: an institutional trust-threat relation emerged only in older respondents with an average age of around 60, but not in younger participants. Furthermore, the study found that perceived coronavirus threat was associated with closer relationships in the family, but simultaneously with an increased distance in relations with neighbors and residents of the respondents' locality. In summary, the study indicated that "strong" ties (i.e., with family, colleagues, and friends) either remained unchanged or were intensified in the face of the pandemic threat, whereas "weak" ties (i.e., with neighbors, residents of the same locality, and fellow citizens) tended to weaken even more.

Substantial increase in perceived benefits over harms of COVID-19 outbreak but persistent socioeconomic disparities: Comparison of two cross-sectional surveys in Hong Kong from 2020 to 2021

Background

We have reported both perceived benefits and harms of the COVID-19 outbreak and their socioeconomic disparities amid the pandemic in Hong Kong. We further investigated whether such perceptions and disparities had changed after 10 months.

Methods

Under the Hong Kong Jockey Club SMART Family-Link Project, we conducted two cross-sectional surveys online on perceived personal and family benefits and harms of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hong Kong adults in May 2020 (after Wave 2 was under control; N = 4,891) and in February and March 2021 (after Wave 4 was under control; N = 6,013). We collected sociodemographic information, including sex, age, education, household income, and housing. Using multivariate models of analysis of covariance (MANCOVA), we compared perceived benefits and harms and socioeconomic disparities between the two surveys.

Results

Adjusting for sex and age, the prevalence of 17 out of 18 perceived personal and family benefits of COVID-19 outbreak increased (Ps < 0.001). Six of 11 perceived personal and family harms decreased (Ps < 0.001) and 4 increased (Ps < 0.001). The total number of perceived personal and family benefits increased substantially (Ps < 0.001), whereas that of perceived personal harms decreased (P = 0.01) and family harms remained stable (P > 0.05). Socioeconomic disparities, however, persisted-more perceived benefits in those with higher socioeconomic status (Ps < 0.001) and more perceived harms in those with lower (Ps ≤ 0.005).

Conclusion

We have first reported that perceived personal and family benefits of the COVID-19 outbreak increased substantially over 10 months amid the pandemic, while perceived personal and family harms were lower and stable, respectively. Socioeconomic disparities of the perceived benefits and harms persisted, which need to be monitored and addressed urgently.

Disentangling crucial factors of the pandemic in Brazil: Effect of lockdown restrictions on mental health

Quarantine and social distance restrictions have been enforced worldwide to reduce the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The effects of these measures on mental health are recognised, but remaining unclear, is whether these effects are a consequence of the virus itself or policies that are enforced to prevent it. The present study investigated the impact of lockdown restrictions on anxiety and depression at two different times in 2020. Data were collected from 118 participants from all regions of Brazil. After easing quarantine restrictions in the second half of 2020, two natural groups were formed. One group included participants who voluntarily remained at home (n = 73). The other group consisted of those who decided to leave home (n = 45). A linear mixed model was used to determine the effects of group and time and their interaction. The McNemar test was used to determine intragroup differences in perceptions and concerns about COVID-19. Logistic regression identified predictors of high and stable depression and anxiety. None of the factors or their interactions was significant. Indicators of depression and anxiety remained stable over time, regardless of whether the participants left home or remained at home. Significantly, a strong and stable agreement with quarantine was found. The participants agreed that COVID-19 was a threat to public health. Political orientation was a predictor of high and stable levels of depression but not anxiety. Participants who self-identified as liberal politically were at a greater risk of developing depression. The results suggest that the lockdown policy did not contribute to disruptions of mental health, which instead was a consequence of the pandemic and virus itself. We also found wide and strong support amongst the participants for lockdown and mandatory stay-at-home policies.

Pre-clinical validation of a turbine-based ventilator for invasive ventilation-The ACUTE-19 ventilator

BACKGROUND

The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)-Coronavirus 2 (CoV-2) pandemic pressure on healthcare systems can exhaust ventilator resources, especially where resources are restricted. Our objective was a rapid preclinical evaluation of a newly developed turbine-based ventilator, named the ACUTE-19, for invasive ventilation.

METHODS

Validation consisted of (a) testing tidal volume (V_T) delivery in 11 simulated models, with various resistances and compliances; (b) comparison with a commercial ventilator (VIVO-50) adapting the United Kingdom Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency-recommendations for rapidly manufactured ventilators; and (c) in vivo testing in a sheep before and after inducing acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) by saline lavage.

RESULTS

Differences in V_T in the simulated models were marginally different (largest difference 33ml [95%-confidence interval (CI) 31-36]; P<.001ml). Plateau pressure (P_plat) was not different (-0.3cmH₂O [95%-CI -0.9 to 0.3]; P=.409), and positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) was marginally different (0.3 cmH₂O [95%-CI 0.2 to 0.3]; P<.001) between the ACUTE-19 and the commercial ventilator. Bland-Altman analyses showed good agreement (mean bias, -0.29, [limits of agreement, 0.82 to -1.42], and mean bias 0.56 [limits of agreement, 1.94 to -0.81], at a P_plat of 15 and 30cmH₂O, respectively). The ACUTE-19 achieved optimal oxygenation and ventilation before and after ARDS induction.

CONCLUSIONS

The ACUTE-19 performed accurately in simulated and animal models yielding a comparable performance with a VIVO-50 commercial device. The acute 19 can provide the basis for the development of a future affordable commercial ventilator.

Trial by media: evaluating the role of mainstream media and fact-checking agencies during the COVID-19 pandemic

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to critically assess the function of the media during the COVID-19 pandemic. It tries to understand how media corporations selectively polish a certain narrative against the other. It will also take into consideration the role of fact-checking agencies and its reliability in determining what is right and wrong.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses qualitative methods and relies on secondary data available in academic domains. In this paper, a specific case related with the COVID-19 pandemic is taken up. Conflicting accounts of health professionals both in academic and industry are compared and analysed. Professional integrity of fact-checking agencies as well goes through scrutiny.

Findings

After conducting a critical analysis, it is observed that media houses have violated certain ethics while presenting news and opinions during the COVID-19 pandemic. Without any consideration of fair presentation, the mainstream media resorted to presenting vaccine hesitancy as conspiracy and deplatformed such voice from the media. This violates one’s freedom to free speech and expression.

Research limitations/implications

It is a viewpoint from the side of a free speech abolitionist.

Practical implications

Press will realize that it failed in a number of occasions to uphold and protect its ethical values.

Originality/value

A study questioning the role of media during the COVID-9 pandemic is rare. In this regard, adequate literature is always a difficulty considering the amount of censorship imposed by health agencies, academic institutions and the media. This particular study is built of limited yet reliable information made available by academicians and independent health professionals. As such, the value of work which focuses on the alternative perspectives is believed to add value to health professionals, policymakers, media professionals and the general population.

Pandemics, policy, and pluralism: A Feyerabend-inspired perspective on COVID-19

We analyse insufficient epistemic pluralism and associated problems in science-based policy advice during the COVID-19 pandemic drawing on specific arguments in Paul Feyerabend's philosophy. Our goal is twofold: to deepen our understanding of the epistemic shortcomings in science-based policy during the pandemic, and to assess the merits and problems of Feyerabend's arguments for epistemic pluralism as well as their relevance for policy-making. We discuss opportunities and challenges of integrating a plurality of viewpoints from within and outside science into policy advice thus contributing to discussions about normative issues concerning evidence and expertise in policy-making.

Stay-at-home and face mask policy intentions inconsistent with incidence and fatality during the US COVID-19 pandemic

During the COVID-19 pandemic, many states imposed stay-at-home (SAH) and mandatory face mask (MFM) orders to supplement the United States CDC recommendations. The purpose of this study was to characterize the relationship between SAH and MFM approaches with the incidence and fatality of COVID-19 during the pandemic period until 23 August 2020 (about 171 days), the period with no vaccines or specific drugs that had passed the phase III clinical trials yet. States with SAH orders showed a potential 50-60% decrease in infection and fatality during the SAH period (about 45 days). After normalization to population density, there was a 44% significant increase in the fatality rate in no-SAH + no-MFM states when compared to SAH + MFM. However, many results in this study were inconsistent with the intent of public health strategies of SAH and MFM. There were similar incidence rates (1.41, 1.81, and 1.36%) and significant differences in fatality rates (3.40, 2.12, and 1.25%; p < 0.05) and mortality rates (51.43, 34.50, and 17.42 per 100,000 residents; p < 0.05) among SAH + MFM, SAH + no-MFM, and no-SAH + no-MFM states, respectively. There were no significant differences in total positive cases, average daily new cases, and average daily fatality when normalized with population density among the three groups. This study suggested potential decreases in infection and fatality with short-term SAH order. However, SAH and MFM orders from some states' policies probably had limited effects in lowering transmission and fatality among the general population. At the policy-making level, if contagious patients would not likely be placed in strict isolation and massive contact tracing would not be effective to implement, we presume that following the CDC's recommendations with close monitoring of healthcare capacity could be appropriate in helping mitigate the COVID-19 disaster while limiting collateral socioeconomic damages.

Aggressive measures, rising inequalities, and mass formation during the COVID-19 crisis: An overview and proposed way forward

A series of aggressive restrictive measures were adopted around the world in 2020-2022 to attempt to prevent SARS-CoV-2 from spreading. However, it has become increasingly clear the most aggressive (lockdown) response strategies may involve negative side-effects such as a steep increase in poverty, hunger, and inequalities. Several economic, educational, and health repercussions have fallen disproportionately on children, students, young workers, and especially on groups with pre-existing inequalities such as low-income families, ethnic minorities, and women. This has led to a vicious cycle of rising inequalities and health issues. For example, educational and financial security decreased along with rising unemployment and loss of life purpose. Domestic violence surged due to dysfunctional families being forced to spend more time with each other. In the current narrative and scoping review, we describe macro-dynamics that are taking place because of aggressive public health policies and psychological tactics to influence public behavior, such as mass formation and crowd behavior. Coupled with the effect of inequalities, we describe how these factors can interact toward aggravating ripple effects. In light of evidence regarding the health, economic and social costs, that likely far outweigh potential benefits, the authors suggest that, first, where applicable, aggressive lockdown policies should be reversed and their re-adoption in the future should be avoided. If measures are needed, these should be non-disruptive. Second, it is important to assess dispassionately the damage done by aggressive measures and offer ways to alleviate the burden and long-term effects. Third, the structures in place that have led to counterproductive policies should be assessed and ways should be sought to optimize decision-making, such as counteracting groupthink and increasing the level of reflexivity. Finally, a package of scalable positive psychology interventions is suggested to counteract the damage done and improve humanity's prospects.

Same storm, different boat: The global impact of COVID-19 on palliative care

OBJECTIVE

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a complex and profound impact on the provision of palliative care globally. To support learning from palliative care providers and researchers worldwide, the Education Subcommittee of International Psycho-Oncology Society (IPOS) Palliative Care Special Interest Group developed a webinar with presentations by and discussion with eight international palliative care leaders.

METHODS

Presentations were content rich; the speakers used both quantitative (e.g., sharing recent statistical findings) and qualitative (e.g., narrative storytelling, anecdotal experiences) approaches to portray the effect of COVID-19 in their region. Subsequent to the webinar, the committee collectively identified five themes conveyed by the presenters through consensus.

RESULTS

The themes included: (1) altered accessibility to palliative care, with socio-economic status impacting virtual health availability; (2) reduced opportunities to preserve dignity, as survival has been prioritized over preserving the humanity of patients and their loved ones; (3) complicated grief and bereavement arising from social distancing requirements; (4) greater awareness of the importance of sustaining health provider well-being; and (5) the development of valuable innovations across nations, institutions, disciplines, and communities.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, the webinar facilitated valuable connection for global learning and identified opportunities for research and clinical interventions. In an ongoing crisis that has exacerbated isolation, we will need to continue to learn and lean on one another as a global community to navigate ongoing challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Are Lockdowns Effective in Managing Pandemics?

The present coronavirus crisis caused a major worldwide disruption which has not been experienced for decades. The lockdown-based crisis management was implemented by nearly all the countries, and studies confirming lockdown effectiveness can be found alongside the studies questioning it. In this work, we performed a narrative review of the works studying the above effectiveness, as well as the historic experience of previous pandemics and risk-benefit analysis based on the connection of health and wealth. Our aim was to learn lessons and analyze ways to improve the management of similar events in the future. The comparative analysis of different countries showed that the assumption of lockdowns’ effectiveness cannot be supported by evidence—neither regarding the present COVID-19 pandemic, nor regarding the 1918–1920 Spanish Flu and other less-severe pandemics in the past. The price tag of lockdowns in terms of public health is high: by using the known connection between health and wealth, we estimate that lockdowns may claim 20 times more life years than they save. It is suggested therefore that a thorough cost-benefit analysis should be performed before imposing any lockdown for either COVID-19 or any future pandemic.

Implementing Patient Falls Education in Hospitals: A Mixed-Methods Trial

Patient education is key to preventing hospital falls yet is inconsistently implemented by health professionals. A mixed methods study was conducted involving a ward-based evaluation of patients receiving education from health professionals using a scripted conversation guide with a falls prevention brochure, followed by semi-structured qualitative interviews with a purposive sample of health professionals involved in delivering the intervention. Over five weeks, 37 patients consented to surveys (intervention n = 27; control n = 10). The quantitative evaluation showed that falls prevention education was not systematically implemented in the trial ward. Seven individual interviews were conducted with health professionals to understand the reasons why implementation failed. Perceived barriers included time constraints, limited interprofessional collaboration, and a lack of staff input into designing the research project and patient interventions. Perceived enablers included support from senior staff, consistent reinforcement of falls education by health professionals, and fostering patient empowerment and engagement. Recommended strategies to enhance implementation included ensuring processes were in place supporting health professional accountability, the inclusion of stakeholder input in designing the falls intervention and implementation processes, as well as leadership engagement in falls prevention education. Although health professionals play a key role in delivering evidence-based falls prevention education in hospitals, implementation can be compromised by staff capacity, capability, and opportunities for co-design with patients and researchers. Organisational buy-in to practice change facilitates the implementation of evidence-based falls prevention activities.

French-Canadian validation of the Traumatic Grief Inventory-Self Report (TGI-SR)

The Traumatic Grief Inventory Self-Report (TGI-SR), which aims to assess both Persistent Complex Bereavement Disorder and Prolonged Grief Disorder, has been validated in several languages. This study sought to validate the French-Canadian version. We conducted an online survey exploring the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on grief. With data from 728 participants, the scale demonstrated high internal consistency, correlated significantly with three other scales known to measure similar concepts, and distinguished between groups known to be different. This study supports the use of the TGI-SR French-Canadian version by clinicians and researchers to assess complications of grief.

Trust in Institutions, Not in Political Leaders, Determines Compliance in COVID-19 Prevention Measures within Societies across the Globe

A core assumption often heard in public health discourse is that increasing trust in national political leaders is essential for securing public health compliance during crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic (2019–ongoing). However, studies of national government trust are typically too coarse-grained to differentiate between trust in institutions versus more interpersonal trust in political leaders. Here, we present multiscale trust measurements for twelve countries and territories across the West, Oceania and East Asia. These trust results were used to identify which specific domains of government and social trust were most crucial for securing public health compliance (frequency of mask wearing and social distancing) and understanding the reasons for following health measures (belief in effectiveness of public health measures). Through the use of linear regression and structural equation modeling, our cross-cultural survey-based analysis (N = 3369 subjects) revealed that higher trust in national and local public health institutions was a universally consistent predictor of public health compliance, while trust in national political leaders was not predictive of compliance across cultures and geographical regions. Institutional trust was mediated by multiple types of transparency, including providing rationale, securing public feedback, and honestly expressing uncertainty. These results highlight the importance of distinguishing between components of government trust, to better understand which entities the public gives the most attention to during crises.

Whether Social Participation Can Affect the Central Government Public Policy Response to the COVID-19 in China

Objective

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has threatened the state's governance and public safety. This study investigates whether and how public participation can affect central government policy response to this pandemic in the context of China.

Methods

This study constructs the theoretical framework based on theoretical analysis, and Social Network Analysis is used to analyze data on the public participation, New Media, and the central government response in this pandemic.

Results

Findings show that the Chinese central government does not always adopt top-down elitist governance strategies in risk management. The central government will also adopt the bottom-up governance strategy triggered by public participation. In this process, New Media acts as a catalyst. Specifically, when faced with a public emergency and needs a policy response from the central government, public participation firstly creates "participation" with the authority of the media, forms public opinion, and then the prompt policy response from the central government.

Conclusion

This study confirms that the central government will refer to public participation to decide the policy response. It also shows that the theory of government response applies to both the local government and the central government.

One-Size-Fits-All Policies Are Unacceptable: A Sustainable Management and Decision-Making Model for Schools in the Post-COVID-19 Era

This paper proposes a sustainable management and decision-making model for COVID-19 control in schools, which makes improvements to current policies and strategies. It is not a case study of any specific school or country. The term one-size-fits-all has two meanings: being blind to the pandemic, and conducting inflexible and harsh policies. The former strategy leads to more casualties and does potential harm to children. Conversely, under long-lasting strict policies, people feel exhausted. Therefore, some administrators pretend that they are working hard for COVID-19 control, and people pretend to follow pandemic control rules. The proposed model helps to alleviate these problems and improve management efficiency. A customized queue model is introduced to control social gatherings. An indoor–outdoor tracking system is established. Based on tracing data, we can assess people’s infection risk, and allocate medical resources more effectively in case of emergency. We consider both social and technical feasibility. Test results demonstrate the improvements and effectiveness of the model. In conclusion, the model has patched up certain one-size-fits-all strategies to balance pandemic control and normal life.

Lessons from past pandemics: a systematic review of evidence-based, cost-effective interventions to suppress COVID-19

BACKGROUND

In an unparalleled global response, during the COVID-19 pandemic, 90 countries asked 3.9 billion people to stay home. Yet other countries avoided lockdowns and focused on other strategies, like contact tracing. How effective and cost-effective are these strategies? We aimed to provide a comprehensive summary of the evidence on past pandemic controls, with a focus on cost-effectiveness.

METHODS

Following PRISMA guidelines, MEDLINE (1946 to April week 2, 2020) and EMBASE (1974 to April 17, 2020) were searched using a range of terms related to pandemic control. Articles reporting on the effectiveness or cost-effectiveness of at least one intervention were included.

RESULTS

We found 1653 papers; 62 were included. The effectiveness of hand-washing and face masks was supported by randomized trials. These measures were highly cost-effective. For other interventions, only observational and modelling studies were found. They suggested that (1) the most cost-effective interventions are swift contact tracing and case isolation, surveillance networks, protective equipment for healthcare workers, and early vaccination (when available); (2) home quarantines and stockpiling antivirals are less cost-effective; (3) social distancing measures like workplace and school closures are effective but costly, making them the least cost-effective options; (4) combinations are more cost-effective than single interventions; and (5) interventions are more cost-effective when adopted early. For 2009 H1N1 influenza, contact tracing was estimated to be 4363 times more cost-effective than school closure ($2260 vs. $9,860,000 per death prevented).

CONCLUSIONS AND CONTRIBUTIONS

For COVID-19, a cautious interpretation suggests that (1) workplace and school closures are effective but costly, especially when adopted late, and (2) scaling up as early as possible a combination of interventions that includes hand-washing, face masks, ample protective equipment for healthcare workers, and swift contact tracing and case isolation is likely to be the most cost-effective strategy.

Sleep Quality, Insomnia, Anxiety, Fatigue, Stress, Memory and Active Coping during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Background: The current study aimed to evaluate the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on sleep quality, insomnia, anxiety, stress, fatigue and active coping in the United States. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study using a publicly available database taken from the Boston College COVID-19 Sleep and Well-Being Dataset. We have selected the most recent data that included information about sleep quality and other measures, including insomnia, anxiety, stress, fatigue and coping, collected between 22 February−8 March 2021. Results: A total of 476 subjects were included in the analysis. The mean (SD) age of the study population was 38.8 (17.8) years, and there were more females (85%) than males. The population had a mean (SD) score of the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI) of 6 (3.2), with 65% having the prevalence of poor sleep quality (defined as PSQ ≥ 5; n = 311). The mean (SD) score for Insomnia Severity Index (ISI) was 6.9 (5.2), with 55 subjects (11.5%) having clinical insomnia (defined as ISI ≥ 15); of whom 9% had severe clinical insomnia. There were positive correlations between PSQI and ISI (r = 0.76, p < 0.001), PROMIS fatigue scale (r = 0.53, p < 0.001), Generalized Anxiety Disorder-7 (GAD-7) (r = 0.46, p < 0.001), and Perceived Stress Scale (PSS) (r = 0.44, p < 0.001). The PSQI was inversely correlated with the John Henryism Active Coping Scale (JHACS) and memory scale. In the multivariate regression model, JHACS, ISI, fatigue, PSS and GAD-7 were significant predictors of PSQI, and these variables accounted for 62% of the variance of PSQI, adjusted for age and gender. Conclusion: An important contribution to the literature is made by this research, which demonstrates the significant prevalence of poor sleep quality and its association with insomnia and other mental and physical well-being. It also underlines the need to prioritise policy and public health efforts to address sleep issues that have substantial health and economic effects for both individuals and the population at large.

The Effects of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Mortality: A Generalized Synthetic Control Approach Across 169 Countries

Importance

Governments have introduced non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in response to the pandemic outbreak of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19). While NPIs aim at preventing fatalities related to COVID-19, the previous literature on their efficacy has focused on infections and on data of the first half of 2020. Still, findings of early NPI studies may be subject to underreporting and missing timeliness of reporting of cases. Moreover, the low variation in treatment timing during the first wave makes identification of robust treatment effects difficult.

Objective

We enhance the literature on the effectiveness of NPIs with respect to the period, the number of countries, and the analytical approach.

Design, Setting, and Participants

To circumvent problems of reporting and treatment variation, we analyse data on daily confirmed COVID-19-related deaths per capita from Our World in Data, and on 10 different NPIs from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) for 169 countries from 1st July 2020 to 1st September 2021. To identify the causal effects of introducing NPIs on COVID-19-related fatalities, we apply the generalized synthetic control (GSC) method to each NPI, while controlling for the remaining NPIs, weather conditions, vaccinations, and NPI-residualized COVID-19 cases. This mitigates the influence of selection into treatment and allows to model flexible post-treatment trajectories.

Results

We do not find substantial and consistent COVID-19-related fatality-reducing effects of any NPI under investigation. We see a tentative change in the trend of COVID-19-related deaths around 30 days after strict stay-at-home rules and to a slighter extent after workplace closings have been implemented. As a proof of concept, our model is able to identify a fatality-reducing effect of COVID-19 vaccinations. Furthermore, our results are robust with respect to various crucial sensitivity checks.

Conclusion

Our results demonstrate that many implemented NPIs may not have exerted a significant COVID-19-related fatality-reducing effect. However, NPIs might have contributed to mitigate COVID-19-related fatalities by preventing exponential growth in deaths. Moreover, vaccinations were effective in reducing COVID-19-related deaths.

Lockdown strictness and mental health effects among older populations in Europe

This paper investigates whether lockdown policies aggravated mental health problems of older populations (50 and over) in Europe during the first COVID-19 wave. Using data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE COVID-19 questionnaire) and from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker for 17 countries, we estimate the causal effect of lockdown policies on mental health by combining cross-country variability in the strictness of the policies with cross-individual variability in face-to-face contacts prior to the pandemic. We find that lockdown policies worsened insomnia, anxiety, and depression by 5, 7.2 and 5.1 percentage points, respectively. This effect was stronger for women and those aged between 50 and 65. Interestingly, lockdown policies notably damaged the mental health of healthy populations. We close with a discussion of lockdown policies targeted at individuals above 65 and/or with pre-existing conditions.

Get insight into the cause of death distribution and epidemiology of penile squamous cell carcinoma: A population-based study

Background

Penile squamous cell carcinoma (PSCC) survival had no significant improvement since 1990 in the United States. This study aims to get insight into the changing trend and distribution of death causes of PSCC. The epidemiology of PSCC is also investigated.

Methods

The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) (1992–2018) database is utilized to get patients diagnosed with penile squamous cell carcinoma. The trend of incidence, distribution of age, changing trend and distribution of death cause, and survival outcome are analyzed for all PSCC patients and each race.

Results

Three thousand four hundred and twenty‐three male patients with PSCC are enrolled in our study. The age‐adjusted incidence rate of the white has a slight increase (Annual percent change [APC] = 0.647%). American Indian/Alaska Native men have the highest average annual incidence, while Asian /Pacific Islander men have the lowest. PSCC patients aged 70–80 are the most common, and patients over 80 years have the highest 3‐year (50%) and 5‐year (63.93%) mortality rate. Non‐cancer disease, especially circulatory system disease, is the most common cause of death, whereas the proportion of patients who died of PSCC significantly increased from 21.17% (1992–2001) to 41.3% (2012–2017) in PSCC patients (p < 0.001). These results have not changed significantly when we only focus on primary PSCC without previous malignant tumors. Hispanics are shown better overall survival than non‐Hispanic White and non‐ Hispanic Black men. (p < 0.001) No statistical differences in cancer‐specific survival are observed (p = 0.15).

Conclusion

The current study provides essential initial data regarding the presentation and clinical outcomes of PSCC patients. Notably, non‐cancer disease, especially circulatory system disease, is the more common cause of death than PSCC. However, the proportion of patients who died of penile squamous cell carcinoma has a relatively significant increase in recent years. The increasing trends in the advanced stage of PSCC patients might account for this change.

Immunogenesis in patients with medium and severe coronavirus infection – dynamics in different age groups

The results of a one-year prospective study, during which the process of immunogenesis in patients over 18 years of age with moderate and severe coronavirus infection was monitored and analyzed in clinical and paraclinical (clinical laboratory) aspects, are summarized and presented.

The study included 2683 patients, all treated in the Clinic of Internal Diseases at the University Multiprofile Hospital for Active Treatment and Emergency Medicine “N. I. Pirogov” EAD, Sofia for the period from April 2020 to December 2020. Patients were followed for one year after recovering from moderate to severe coronavirus infection. Patients are grouped into four age categories as follows: 18–45 years; 46–65 years; 66–80 years and over 80 years.

The results of our study show that during the study period in 97% of patients the level of anti-SARS-CoV2, rose and in the remaining three percent it was flat or followed by subsequent waning (in less than 1% of patients), but does not reach critically low levels (i. e. below the positivity conditional threshold). The level of IgG reached a peak and then waned, but on the other hand, as mentioned above, the amount of Ig-Total tested shows a significant increase. This trend is observed in all age groups, with a difference in the level of IgG and Ig-Total depending on age.

The results of the additional screening in the target period in terms of virulence and virus segregation, categorically rule out the suspicion of the presence of “silent spreader”. During the follow-up period, no patients were re-hospitalized due to recurrence of Coronavirus infection (re-infection and illness).

The early impact of the global lockdown on post-secondary students and staff: A global, descriptive study

Objectives:

The aim of this study was to gain a preliminary, broad-level understanding of how the first lockdown impacted post-secondary students, faculty, and staff worldwide.

Methods:

The data were obtained via a global online cross-sectional questionnaire survey using a mixed-method design and disseminated to university students, faculty, and staff from April to November 2020. The data were categorized in four themes/categories: (1) social life and relationships, (2) access to services, (3) health experiences, and (4) impact on mental health well-being.

Results:

The survey included 27,804 participants from 121 countries and 6 continents. The majority of participants were from Europe (73.6%), female (59.2%), under 30 years of age (64.0%), living in large urban areas (61.3%), %), and from middle-income families (66.7%). Approximately 28.4% of respondents reported that the lockdown negatively impacted their social life, while 21.2% reported the lockdown had a positive impact. A total of 39.2% reported having issues accessing products or services, including essentials, such as groceries, or medical services. In addition, respondents reported an increase in stress and anxiety levels and a decrease in quality of life during the first 2 weeks of the lockdown.

Conclusions:

The COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown measures had an evident impact on the lives of post-secondary students, faculty, and staff. Further research is required to inform and improve policies to support these populations at both institutional and national levels.

Effects of a Three-Month COVID-19 Lockdown on Body Mass and Nutritional Status of Lebanese Students Who Study Physical Education

This study investigated the effects of a three-month COVID-19 lockdown on the body mass of Lebanese students who study physical education and whether these changes reflected in distribution changes in underweight, normal weight, and overweight/obese status. Furthermore, the study investigated whether lockdown affected physical activity behavior and if students who reduced the frequency of training sessions were more likely to increase their body mass. Body mass and body height were assessed in 174 Lebanese physical education students immediately before and at the end of COVID-19 lockdown. Their training routine was assessed using by questionnaire. Wilcoxon signed-rank order assessed the effects of lockdown on body mass, while Chi square test tested the differences in distribution of underweight, normal weight, and overweight/obese status before and after the lockdown. In general, there was a significant (p < 0.001) small increase in body mass. However, about 27% of participants had a moderate to major increase in body mass. This was reflected in a significant shift in nutritional status as the number of overweight/obese students increased by 5.2%. In addition, students who reduced their training frequency due to lockdown were three times more likely to increase body mass than those who remained active (i.e., 38 vs. 5 with moderate to major increase). Given that an increase in body mass increases all health risks, remaining physically active is of high importance for health prevention, especially considering all other positive effects of physical activity on cardio-respiratory and muscle function.

Investigating the Impact of Isolation During COVID-19 on Family Functioning - An Australian Snapshot

This study explored possible changes in family functioning from the perspective of parents during the COVID-19 pandemic. Thirty-four parents/guardians of children under 18 years completed a semi-structured interview, average length 47 min. Interviews focussed on changes in different aspects of family functioning including family roles, routines, and rules; parenting practices; communication and relationships; and strengths, challenges, and tensions. Data were analysed using reflexive thematic analysis applied in an idiographic and inductive manner to reduce the loss of individual experiences and perspectives. Four superordinate themes were identified: shifting family roles and boundaries throughout the pandemic; impacts on routines and relationships; opportunities and resourcing; and, experiences of support and unity. Gender differences were evident across some themes, particularly changing roles, workload and work-home boundaries. Challenges and tensions were frequently highlighted, particularly by “vulnerable” family groups such as those with children with disabilities. Parents also described a renewed sense of family and community that underpinned adaptive coping responses. The results highlight the importance of family connectedness in times of need.

The Acceptance of COVID-19 Vaccination Under Different Methods of Investigation: Based on Online and On-Site Surveys in China

As Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) vaccines became available in December 2020, increasingly more surveys were organized to examine the acceptance of vaccination, while most of them were conducted online. This study aimed to explore the difference between online and traditional on-site surveys in terms of COVID-19 vaccine acceptance. From November to December 2020, an online survey (n = 2013) and an on-site survey (n = 4,316) were conducted simultaneously in China. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify influencing factors of acceptance, and propensity score matching (PSM) was adopted to balance the outcomes. As a result, 90.0% of the online respondents accepted COVID-19 vaccination, while it was only 82.1% in the on-site survey. After applying PSM, the acceptance rate of the on-site survey was declined to 78.6%. The age structure, residence location, education, and health status were observed as important factors in addressing vaccination acceptance, which needed to be specifically considered when designing online surveys.

The Endocannabinoid System as Prognostic Biomarker of the Obstructive Sleep Apnea Morbidity in COVID-19-Recovered Individuals

The endocannabinoid system is a neurobiological signaling network that is present in the human biological systems, including the brain. This neurobiological system comprises cannabinoid receptors, endogenous ligands, as well as enzymatic synthesis, degradation and transport of endocannabinoids and has been suggested as a modulator of multiple physiological processes, including the sleep–wake cycle. On the other hand, the COVID-19 pandemic, originated by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, has caused global catastrophes in economic, social, and health spheres. COVID-19 is a multi-organ disease with a broad spectrum of health complications, such as respiratory infections leading to respiratory-related symptoms and disorders. The development, approval, and application of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 is ongoing; however, there are increasing reports of prolonged effects after COVID-19 infection, including respiratory and neurological sequelae. Here, I provide a comprehensive review of the current literature on the endocannabinoid system and their role in sleep modulation. Whilst I discuss relevant considerations for the high risk for developing sleep disorders related to respiratory failures, such as obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) in recovered COVID-19-infected subjects. Finally, I propose a framework that integrates the analysis of the components of the endocannabinoid system as prognostic biomarkers of the likely OSA after COVID-19 infection.

Validación preclínica de un respirador de turbina para la ventilación invasiva: el respirador ACUTE-19

Antecedentes

La pandemia producida por el síndrome respiratorio agudo severo por coronavirus 2 puede agotar los recursos sanitarios, especialmente de respiradores, en situaciones de escasez de recursos sanitarios. Nuestro objetivo fue realizar una evaluación preclínica rápida de un prototipo de respirador de turbina para la ventilación invasiva denominado ACUTE-19.

Métodos

La validación consistió en: a) evaluación de la administración de un volumen corriente en 11 modelos pulmonares simulados, con diversas resistencias y compliancias; b) comparación con un ventilador comercial (VIVO-50) adaptando las recomendaciones de la Agencia Reguladora de Medicamentos y Productos Sanitarios del Reino Unido para ventiladores de fabricación rápida, y c) realización de pruebas in vivo en una oveja antes y después de inducir el síndrome de distrés respiratorio agudo mediante lavado salino.

Resultados

Las diferencias de volumen corriente en los modelos simulados fueron mínimamente diferentes (la mayor diferencia fue de 33 ml [IC 95%: 31 a 36]; p < 0,001). La presión de meseta no fue diferente (−0,3 cmH₂O [IC 95%: −0,9 a 0,3]; p = 0,409), y la presión positiva al final de la espiración fue levemente diferente (0,3 cmH₂O [IC 95%: 0,2 a 0,3]; p < 0,001) comparando el ACUTE-19 y el ventilador comercial. El análisis de Bland-Altman mostró una buena concordancia (sesgo medio −0,29 [límites de concordancia 0,82 a −1,42], y sesgo medio 0,56 [límites de concordancia 1,94 a −0,81], a una presión de meseta de 15 y 30 cmH₂O, respectivamente). El ACUTE-19 consiguió una oxigenación y ventilación óptimas antes y después de la inducción del síndrome de distrés respiratorio agudo en el modelo animal.

Conclusiones

El ACUTE-19 se comportó con precisión en los modelos simulados y animales, con un rendimiento comparable al del dispositivo comercial VIVO-50. El ACUTE-19 puede servir de base para el desarrollo de un futuro ventilador comercial asequible.

The SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic in High Income Countries Such as Canada: A Better Way Forward Without Lockdowns

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has caused tragic morbidity and mortality. In attempt to reduce this morbidity and mortality, most countries implemented population-wide lockdowns. Here we show that the lockdowns were based on several flawed assumptions, including "no one is protected until everyone is protected," "lockdowns are highly effective to reduce transmission," "lockdowns have a favorable cost-benefit balance," and "lockdowns are the only effective option." Focusing on the latter, we discuss that Emergency Management principles provide a better way forward to manage the public emergency of the pandemic. Specifically, there are three priorities including the following: first, protect those most at risk by separating them from the threat (mitigation); second, ensure critical infrastructure is ready for people who get sick (preparation and response); and third, shift the response from fear to confidence (recovery). We argue that, based on Emergency Management principles, the age-dependent risk from SARS-CoV-2, the minimal (at best) efficacy of lockdowns, and the terrible cost-benefit trade-offs of lockdowns, we need to reset the pandemic response. We can manage risk and save more lives from both COVID-19 and lockdowns, thus achieving far better outcomes in both the short- and long-term.

Content Analysis of the Free COVID-19 Telephone Consultations Available during the First Wave of the Pandemic in Japan

This cross-sectional study aimed to (1) describe the unclassified contents of telephone consultation services provided by a public health center during the first wave of COVID-19 in Japan and (2) examine whether the contents required assistance from public health nurses (PHNs). We analyzed a total of 207 calls in which the purpose of the call was unclassified into pre-set categories. PHNs transcribed the exact text of the consultation conversations recorded from 25 March to 20 April 2020 in City A. Approximately half of the calls were from residents. Seven categories were extracted through a qualitative content analysis. The most common topic was infection control measures, where the presence of COVID-19 infection was assumed (n = 62); the second most common was extreme anxiety and fear of infection (n = 50). Questions about the COVID-19 response system (n = 30), discrimination and misunderstandings about COVID-19 (n = 24), and response measures for COVID-19 outbreaks within organizations (n = 18) were also included. The unclassified consultations included various topics, several of which required the expertise of a PHN. Each local government should consider sharing and task-shifting telephone consultation services among PHNs and other staff to reduce their burden and allow them to concentrate on conducting infection control more effectively.