Drought, deluge and declines: the impact of precipitation extremes on amphibians in a changing climate

Stage-Specific Demographic Effects of Hydrologic Variation in a Stream Salamander

AbstractWe lack a strong understanding of how organisms with complex life histories respond to climate variation. Many stream-associated species have multistage life histories that are likely to influence the demographic consequences of floods and droughts. However, tracking stage-specific demographic responses requires high-resolution, long-term data that are rare. We used 8 years of capture-recapture data for the headwater stream salamander Gyrinophilus porphyriticus to quantify the effects of flooding and drying magnitude on stage-specific vital rates and population growth. Drying reduced larval recruitment but increased the probability of metamorphosis (i.e., adult recruitment). Flooding reduced adult recruitment but had no effect on larval recruitment. Larval and adult survival declined with flooding but were unaffected by drying. Annual population growth rates (λ) declined with flooding and drying. Lambda also declined over the study period (2012-2021), although mean λ was 1.0 over this period. Our results indicate that G. porphyriticus populations are resilient to hydrologic variation because of compensatory effects on recruitment of larvae versus adults (i.e., reproduction vs. metamorphosis). Complex life cycles may enable this resilience to climate variation by creating opportunities for compensatory demographic responses across stages. However, more frequent and intense hydrologic variation in the latter half of this study contributed to a decline in λ over time, suggesting that increasing environmental variability poses a threat even when demographic compensation occurs.

Canopy coverage, light, and moisture affect thermoregulatory trade-offs in an amphibian breeding habitat

When amphibians thermoregulate, they face a fundamental trade-off between the ability to maintain activity and an increased rate of dehydration at higher temperatures. Canopy coverage affects both the thermal and hydric conditions of the environment and can therefore influence amphibian thermoregulation. Frogs require proper conditions to thermoregulate to successfully grow, survive, and reproduce. But while we know how canopy and environmental variables typically affect operative temperature, less is known about effects on amphibian water loss rates. In this study, we measure the effect of canopy coverage on the conditions available for thermoregulation at a breeding pond of the California red-legged frog, Rana draytonii. We use agar frog models to estimate the thermal and hydric capacities frogs would experience in locations with different canopy coverage and microhabitats. At each site, we deployed models under four microhabitat treatments: wet/sun, wet/shade, dry/sun, and dry/shade. We modeled how environmental variables affected operative temperature and evaporative water loss from agar frogs. We found positive effects of air temperature, the sun treatment, and reduced canopy cover on operative temperature, and negative direct or indirect effects of these variables on evaporative water loss, consistent with the hypothesized trade-off between thermoregulatory behavior to increase temperature and the increased desiccation risk due to higher water loss. Additionally, our results indicate that the availability of wet microhabitats can allow frogs to reduce water loss, potentially mitigating the risk of desiccation when thermoregulating to achieve higher operative temperatures. Our findings suggest, that with access to proper microhabitats, amphibians can mitigate the fundamental trade-off and receive benefits of thermoregulating at high temperatures.

Defining the roles of local precipitation and anthropogenic water sources in driving the abundance of Aedes aegypti, an emerging disease vector in urban, arid landscapes

Understanding drivers of disease vectors' population dynamics is a pressing challenge. For short-lived organisms like mosquitoes, landscape-scale models must account for their highly local and rapid life cycles. Aedes aegypti, a vector of multiple emerging diseases, has become abundant in desert population centers where water from precipitation could be a limiting factor. To explain this apparent paradox, we examined Ae. aegypti abundances at > 660 trapping locations per year for 3 years in the urbanized Maricopa County (metropolitan Phoenix), Arizona, USA. We created daily precipitation layers from weather station data using a kriging algorithm, and connected localized daily precipitation to numbers of mosquitoes trapped at each location on subsequent days. Precipitation events occurring in either of two critical developmental periods for mosquitoes were correlated to suppressed subsequent adult female presence and abundance. LASSO models supported these analyses for female presence but not abundance. Precipitation may explain 72% of Ae. aegypti presence and 90% of abundance, with anthropogenic water sources supporting mosquitoes during long, precipitation-free periods. The method of using kriging and weather station data may be generally applicable to the study of various ecological processes and patterns, and lead to insights into microclimates associated with a variety of organisms' life cycles.

Amphibian diversity across three adjacent ecosystems in Área de Conservación Guanacaste, Costa Rica

Amphibians are the most threatened species-rich vertebrate group, with species extinctions and population declines occurring globally, even in protected and seemingly pristine habitats. These 'enigmatic declines' are generated by climate change and infectious diseases. However, the consequences of these declines are undocumented as no baseline ecological data exists for most affected areas. Like other neotropical countries, Costa Rica, including Área de Conservación Guanacaste (ACG) in north-western Costa Rica, experienced rapid amphibian population declines and apparent extinctions during the past three decades. To delineate amphibian diversity patterns within ACG, a large-scale comparison of multiple sites and habitats was conducted. Distance and time constrained visual encounter surveys characterised species richness at five sites-Murciélago (dry forest), Santa Rosa (dry forest), Maritza (mid-elevation dry-rain forest intersect), San Gerardo (rainforest) and Cacao (cloud forest). Furthermore, species-richness patterns for Cacao were compared with historic data from 1987-8, before amphibians declined in the area. Rainforests had the highest species richness, with triple the species of their dry forest counterparts. A decline of 45% (20 to 11 species) in amphibian species richness was encountered when comparing historic and contemporary data for Cacao. Conservation efforts sometimes focus on increasing the resilience of protected areas, by increasing their range of ecosystems. In this sense ACG is unique containing many tropical ecosystems compressed in a small geographic space, all protected and recognised as a UNESCO world heritage site. It thus provides an extraordinary platform to understand changes, past and present, and the resilience of tropical ecosystems and assemblages, or lack thereof, to climate change.

Developmental Plasticity in Anurans: Meta-analysis Reveals Effects of Larval Environments on Size at Metamorphosis And Timing of Metamorphosis

Many anuran amphibians (frogs and toads) rely on aquatic habitats during their larval stage. The quality of this environment can significantly impact lifetime fitness and population dynamics. Over 450 studies have been published on environmental impacts on anuran developmental plasticity, yet we lack a synthesis of these effects across different environments. We conducted a meta-analysis and used a comparative approach to understand whether developmental plasticity in response to different larval environments produces predictable changes in metamorphic phenotypes. We analyzed data from 124 studies spanning 80 anuran species and six larval environments and showed that intraspecific variation in mass at metamorphosis and the duration of the larval period is partly explained by the type of environment experienced during the larval period. Changes in larval environments tended to reduce mass at metamorphosis relative to control conditions, with the degree of change depending on the identity and severity of environmental change. Higher temperatures and lower water levels shortened the duration of the larval period, whereas less food and higher densities increased the duration of the larval period. Phylogenetic relationships among species were not associated with interspecific variation in mass at metamorphosis plasticity or duration of the larval period plasticity. Our results provide a foundation for future studies on developmental plasticity, especially in response to global changes. This study provides motivation for additional work that links developmental plasticity with fitness consequences within and across life stages, as well as how the outcomes described here are altered in compounding environments.

Climate change is not just global warming: Multidimensional impacts on animal gut microbiota

Climate change has rapidly altered many ecosystems, with detrimental effects for biodiversity across the globe. In recent years, it has become increasingly apparent that the microorganisms that live in and on animals can substantially affect host health and physiology, and the structure and function of these microbial communities can be highly sensitive to environmental variables. To date, most studies have focused on the effects of increasing mean temperature on gut microbiota, yet other aspects of climate are also shifting, including temperature variation, seasonal dynamics, precipitation and the frequency of severe weather events. This array of environmental pressures might interact in complex and non-intuitive ways to impact gut microbiota and consequently alter animal fitness. Therefore, understanding the impacts of climate change on animals requires a consideration of multiple types of environmental stressors and their interactive effects on gut microbiota. Here, we present an overview of some of the major findings in research on climatic effects on microbial communities in the animal gut. Although ample evidence has now accumulated that shifts in mean temperature can have important effects on gut microbiota and their hosts, much less work has been conducted on the effects of other climatic variables and their interactions. We provide recommendations for additional research needed to mechanistically link climate change with shifts in animal gut microbiota and host fitness.

Shower thoughts: why scientists should spend more time in the rain

Stormwater is a vital resource and dynamic driver of terrestrial ecosystem processes. However, processes controlling interactions during and shortly after storms are often poorly seen and poorly sensed when direct observations are substituted with technological ones. We discuss how human observations complement technological ones and the benefits of scientists spending more time in the storm. Human observation can reveal ephemeral storm-related phenomena such as biogeochemical hot moments, organismal responses, and sedimentary processes that can then be explored in greater resolution using sensors and virtual experiments. Storm-related phenomena trigger lasting, oversized impacts on hydrologic and biogeochemical processes, organismal traits or functions, and ecosystem services at all scales. We provide examples of phenomena in forests, across disciplines and scales, that have been overlooked in past research to inspire mindful, holistic observation of ecosystems during storms. We conclude that technological observations alone are insufficient to trace the process complexity and unpredictability of fleeting biogeochemical or ecological events without the shower thoughts produced by scientists' human sensory and cognitive systems during storms.

Arboviruses in Mammals in the Neotropics: A Systematic Review to Strengthen Epidemiological Monitoring Strategies and Conservation Medicine

Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) are a diverse group of ribonucleic acid (RNA) viruses, with the exception of African swine fever virus, that are transmitted by hematophagous arthropods to a vertebrate host. They are the important cause of many diseases due to their ability to spread in different environments and their diversity of vectors. Currently, there is no information on the geographical distribution of the diseases because the routes of transmission and the mammals (wild or domestic) that act as potential hosts are poorly documented or unknown. We conducted a systematic review from 1967 to 2021 to identify the diversity of arboviruses, the areas, and taxonomic groups that have been monitored, the prevalence of positive records, and the associated risk factors. We identified forty-three arboviruses in nine mammalian orders distributed in eleven countries. In Brazil, the order primates harbor the highest number of arbovirus records. The three most recorded arboviruses were Venezuelan equine encephalitis, Saint Louis encephalitis and West Nile virus. Serum is the most used sample to obtain arbovirus records. Deforestation is identified as the main risk factor for arbovirus transmission between different species and environments (an odds ratio of 1.46 with a 95% confidence interval: 1.34-1.59). The results show an increase in the sampling effort over the years in the neotropical region. Despite the importance of arboviruses for public health, little is known about the interaction of arboviruses, their hosts, and vectors, as some countries and mammalian orders have not yet been monitored. Long-term and constant monitoring allows focusing research on the analysis of the interrelationships and characteristics of each component animal, human, and their environment to understand the dynamics of the diseases and guide epidemiological surveillance and vector control programs. The biodiversity of the Neotropics should be considered to support epidemiological monitoring strategies.

Effects of fine-scale habitat quality on activity, dormancy, habitat use, and survival after reproduction in Rana dybowskii (Chordata, Amphibia)

Amphibians are facing population declines and extinctions, and protecting and supplementing refuges can help species survive. However, the microhabitat requirements of most species are unknown, and artificial shelters or burrows have not been well tested for amphibians. Some amphibians exhibit complex behaviour during the transition from post-reproductive dormancy to activity. However, little is known about the ecology, post-reproductive dormancy, and terrestrial activity of amphibians. Here, habitat site selection in experimental enclosures and the effects of shelters (stones, soil) and shade (with and without shade netting) on the activity, exposed body percentage, burrow depth, body-soil contact percentage, and survival of Rana dybowskii were investigated during post-reproductive dormancy and post-dormant activity. The results showed that R. dybowskii live individually under leaves, soil, stones or tree roots. Furthermore, although the dormant sites of frogs are significantly different, the distribution of male and female frogs in these sites is similar. Shading and shelter significantly affected the exposed body percentage, burrow depth and body-soil contact percentage of frogs compared with soil. In the stone group, soil and stone form the frog's refuge/burrow, whereas in the soil group, the refuge/burrow is composed entirely of soil. Even though the soil group has a deeper burrow and a larger area of soil contact with the body, it still has a higher exposure rate than the stone group. Frog activity frequency was affected by shelter and shade; the interaction of shelter and time and the interaction of shading and time were significant. The soil group had a higher activity frequency than the stone group, and the no-shade group had a higher activity frequency than the shade group. Shelter and shading differences do not significantly affect frog survival; however, the death rate during post-reproductive dormancy is lower than that during the active period.

Disentangling direct and indirect effects of extreme events on coastal wetland communities

One of the primary ways in which climate change will impact coastal freshwater wetlands is through changes in the frequency, intensity, timing and distribution of extreme weather events. Disentangling the direct and indirect mechanisms of population- and community-level responses to extreme events is vital to predicting how species composition of coastal wetlands will change under future conditions. We extended static structural equation modelling approaches to incorporate system dynamics in a multi-year multispecies occupancy model to quantify the effects of extreme weather events on a coastal freshwater wetland system. We used data from an 8-year study (2009-2016) on St. Marks National Wildlife Refuge in Florida, USA, to quantify species-specific and community-level changes in amphibian and fish occupancy associated with two flooding events in 2012 and 2013. We examine how physical changes to the landscape, including potential changes in salinity and increased wetland connectivity, may have contributed to or exacerbated the effects of these extreme weather events on the biota of isolated coastal wetlands. We provide evidence that the primary effects of flooding on the amphibian community were through indirect mechanisms via changes in the composition of the sympatric fish community that may have had lethal (i.e. through direct predation) or non-lethal (i.e. through direct or indirect competitive interactions) effects. In addition, we have shown that amphibian species differed in their sensitivity to direct flooding effects and indirect changes in the fish community and wetland-specific conductance, which led to variable responses across the community. These effects led to the overall decline in amphibian species richness from 2009 to 2016, suggesting that wetland-breeding amphibian communities on St. Marks National Wildlife Refuge may not be resilient to predicted changes in coastal disturbance regimes because of climate change. Understanding both direct and indirect effects, as well as species interactions, is important for predicting the effects of a changing climate on individual species, communities and ecosystems.

Testis Size Variation and Its Environmental Correlates in Andrew's Toad (Bufo andrewsi)

Reproductive investments influenced by environmental conditions vary extensively among geographically distinct populations. However, investigations of patterns of intraspecific variation in male reproductive investments and the mechanisms shaping this variation in anurans remain scarce. Here, we focused on the variation in testis size in 14 populations of the Andrew's toad Bufo andrewsi, a species with weak dispersal ability but wide distribution in southwestern China, to establish whether male reproductive investment varies on an environmental gradient. Our analysis revealed a significant variation in relative testis size across populations, and a positive correlation between testis size and body condition. We, however, found no geographic trends explaining the variability in the testis size. The relative testis size did not increase with increasing latitude or altitude. We also found no relationship between relative testis size and rainfall, but a negative correlation with the coefficient of variation of temperature, with larger testes under stable environments. These findings suggest that the decreased male reproductive investment of this species may be a consequence of harsher or fluctuating environmental conditions.

Climate anomalies and competition reduce establishment success during island colonization

Understanding the factors that facilitate or constrain establishment of populations in novel environments is crucial for conservation biology and the study of adaptive radiation. Important questions include: (1) Does the timing of colonization relative to stochastic events, such as climatic perturbations, impact the probability of successful establishment? (2) To what extent does community context (e.g., the presence of competitors) change the probability of establishment? (3) How do sources of intrapopulation variance, such as sex differences, affect success at an individual level during the process of establishment? Answers to these questions are rarely pursued in a field-experimental context or on the same time scales (months to years) as the processes of colonization and establishment. We introduced slender anole lizards (Anolis apletophallus) to eight islands in the Panama Canal and tracked them over multiple generations to investigate the factors that mediate establishment success. All islands were warmer than the mainland (ancestral) environment, and some islands had a native competitor. We transplanted half of these populations only 4 months before the onset of a severe regional drought and the other half 2 years (two generations) before the drought. We found that successful establishment depended on both the intensity of interspecific competition and the timing of colonization relative to the drought. The islands that were colonized shortly before the drought went functionally extinct by the second generation, and regardless of time before the drought, the populations on islands with interspecific competition declined continuously over the study period. Furthermore, the effect of the competitor interacted with sex, with males suffering, and females benefitting, from the presence of a native competitor. Our results reveal that community context and the timing of colonization relative to climactic events can combine to determine establishment success and that these factors can generate opposite effects on males and females.

Projected Climate and Hydroregime Variability Constrain Ephemeral Wetland-Dependent Amphibian Populations in Simulations of Southern Toads

Amphibian populations are threatened globally by stressors, including diminishing availability of suitable wetland breeding sites, altered hydroregimes driven by changing weather patterns, and exposure to contaminants. Ecological risk assessment should encompass spatial and temporal scales that capture influential ecological processes and demographic responses. Following the PopGUIDE framework of population model development for risk assessment, we used matrix population models, in conjunction with existing hydroregime predictions, under a climate change scenario to evaluate the effects of environmental stochasticity and aquatic pesticide exposure on amphibians that are dependent on ephemeral wetlands. Using southern toads (Anaxyrus terrestris) as an example, we simulated population dynamics with breeding success dependent on hydroregime suitability. Years were defined as optimal, marginal, or insufficient for successful toad recruitment, based on the duration of their potential breeding season and rate of larval development to metamorphosis. We simulated both probabilistic and chronologically specific population projections, including variable annual fecundity, based on hydroregime suitability and reduced larval survival from carbaryl exposure. In our simulations, populations were more negatively impacted by prolonged drought, and consequently multiple sequential years of reproductive failure, than by aquatic pesticide exposure. These results highlight the necessity of reliable climate projections to accurately represent the effects of altered hydroregimes on amphibian populations. Risk assessment approaches could be improved with flexible modifications that allow inclusion of various extrinsic stressors and identification of demographic and ecological vulnerabilities when precise data are lacking.

The role of abiotic variables in an emerging global amphibian fungal disease in mountains

The emergence of the chytridiomycete fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), causing the disease chytridiomycosis, has caused collapse of amphibian communities in numerous mountain systems. The health of amphibians and of mountain freshwater habitats they inhabit is also threatened by ongoing changes in environmental and anthropogenic factors such as climate, hydrology, and pollution. Climate change is causing more extreme climatic events, shifts in ice occurrence, and changes in the timing of snowmelt and pollutant deposition cycles. All of these factors impact both pathogen and host, and disease dynamics. Here we review abiotic variables, known to control Bd occurrence and chytridiomycosis severity, and discuss how climate change may modify them. We propose two main categories of abiotic variables that may alter Bd distribution, persistence, and physiology: 1) climate and hydrology (temperature, precipitation, hydrology, ultraviolet radiation (UVR); and, 2) water chemistry (pH, salinity, pollution). For both categories, we identify topics for further research. More studies on the relationship between global change, pollution and pathogens in complex landscapes, such as mountains, are needed to allow for accurate risk assessments for freshwater ecosystems and resulting impacts on wildlife and human health. Our review emphasizes the importance of using data of higher spatiotemporal resolution and uniform abiotic metrics in order to better compare study outcomes. Fine-scale temperature variability, especially of water temperature, variability of moisture conditions and water levels, snow, ice and runoff dynamics should be assessed as abiotic variables shaping the mountain habitat of pathogen and host. A better understanding of hydroclimate and water chemistry variables, as co-factors in disease, will increase our understanding of chytridiomycosis dynamics.

Factors influencing persistence of a threatened amphibian in restored wetlands despite severe population decline during climate change driven weather extremes

Biodiversity is in global decline during the Anthropocene. Declines have been caused by multiple factors, such as habitat removal, invasive species, and disease, which are often targets for conservation management. However, conservation interventions are under threat from climate change induced weather extremes. Weather extremes are becoming more frequent and devastating and an example of this was the 2019/2020 Australian drought and mega-fires. We provide a case study the impacts of these extreme weather events had on a population of the threatened frog Litoria aurea that occurs in a constructed habitat which was designed to reduce the impact of introduced fish and chytrid-induced disease. We aimed to determine what factors influenced persistence so that the design of wetlands can be further optimised to future-proof threatened amphibians. We achieved this with 4 years (2016-2020) of intensive capture-recapture surveys during austral spring and summer across nine wetlands (n = 94 repeat surveys). As hypothesized, drought caused a sharp reduction in population size, but persistence was achieved. The most parsimonious predictor of survival was an interaction between maximum air temperature and rainfall, indicating that weather extremes likely caused the decline. Survival was positively correlated with wetland vegetation coverage, positing this is an important feature to target to enhance resilience in wetland restoration programs. Additionally, the benefits obtained from measures to reduce chytrid prevalence were not compromised during drought, as there was a positive correlation between salinity and survival. We emphasize that many species may not be able to persist under worse extreme weather scenarios. Despite the potential for habitat augmentation to buffer effects of extreme weather, global action on climate change is needed to reduce extinction risk.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10531-022-02387-9.

Community structure, species–habitat relationships, and conservation of amphibians in forested vernal pools in the Georgian Bay region of Ontario

Forested vernal pools serve an integral role in the recruitment of amphibians in glaciated northeastern North America. In south-central Ontario, vernal pools exist in relatively unimpacted forest networks, but the amphibian communities face uncertain challenges from anthropogenic-induced climate change. We surveyed amphibian larvae and collected measurements of habitat characteristics from vernal pools to collect baseline information on amphibian community structure and species–habitat relationships. Amphibian communities were influenced by hydroperiod length and canopy openness, and the relative abundances of early breeding amphibians were affected by changes in the structure of vegetation communities within pools. Our study suggests that, even across moderate ranges of breeding habitat characteristics, the structure of amphibian communities is dynamic. With anthropogenic-induced climate change leading to more drought-prone summers, the conservation of intact forests that support diverse wetland assemblages will be a necessary component of future legislation.

Resilience of native amphibian communities following catastrophic drought: Evidence from a decade of regional-scale monitoring

The increasing frequency and severity of drought may exacerbate ongoing global amphibian declines. However, interactions between drought and coincident stressors, coupled with high interannual variability in amphibian abundances, can mask the extent and underlying mechanisms of drought impacts. We synthesized a decade (2009 - 2019) of regional-scale amphibian monitoring data (2273 surveys, 233 ponds, and seven species) from across California's Bay Area and used dynamic occupancy modeling to estimate trends and drivers of species occupancy. An extreme drought during the study period resulted in substantial habitat loss, with 51% of ponds drying in the worst year of drought, compared to <20% in pre-drought years. Nearly every species exhibited reduced breeding activity during the drought, with the occupancy of some species (American bullfrogs and California newts) declining by >25%. Invasive fishes and bullfrogs were also associated with reduced amphibian occupancy, and these taxa were locally extirpated from numerous sites during drought, without subsequent recovery-suggesting that drought may present an opportunity to remove invaders. Despite a historic, multi-year drought, native amphibians rebounded quickly to pre-drought occupancy levels, demonstrating evidence of resilience. Permanent waterbodies supported higher persistence of native species during drought years than did temporary waterbodies, and we therefore highlight the value of hydroperiod diversity in promoting amphibian stability.

Herpetofaunal community response to hurricanes Irma and Maria in Virgin Islands National Park

Disturbances are critical for maintaining environmental heterogeneity and biodiversity across landscapes. Hurricanes represent a common disturbance in the Caribbean Sea. These storms are predicted to become more frequent and severe as climate shifts. Understanding how island communities respond to disturbances is critical to their conservation. We surveyed Virgin Islands National Park located on the island of St. John in the Caribbean Sea in 2016 and 2018 to evaluate prolonged herpetofauna community response and resistance to hurricanes. These surveys occurred in March 2016, and June 2018, before and after the 2017 hurricane season, when hurricanes Irma and Maria struck St. John. Using visual encounter surveys, vocalisation surveys, and opportunistic encounters, we surveyed trails within the park through five landscape cover types pre- and post-hurricane. We used linear regression to determine differences in diversity and species richness among landscape cover types and between pre- and post-hurricane surveys and non-metric multidimensional scaling to observe associations among species and landscape cover types pre- and post-hurricane surveys. We determined that there were no significant changes in landscape cover and herpetofauna community associations before and after the 2017 hurricane season, indicating that the herpetofauna communities of Virgin Islands National Park are well adapted to hurricane-related disturbance.

Addressing risks to biodiversity arising from a changing climate: The need for ecosystem restoration in the Tana River Basin, Kenya

Climate change is projected to have significant effects on the distribution of species globally, but research into the implications in parts of Africa has been limited. Using species distribution modelling, this study models climate change-related risks to the terrestrial biodiversity (birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians and plants) of Kenya’s economically-important and ecologically diverse Tana River Basin. Large reductions in species richness are projected with just 2°C warming (relative to preindustrial levels) with birds and plants seeing the greatest impact. Potential climate refugia for biodiversity are identified within the basin, but often overlap with areas already converted to agriculture or set aside for agricultural expansion, and the majority are outside protected areas. Similarly, some protected areas contain no projected refugia at higher levels of global warming, showing they may be insufficient to protect the basin’s biodiversity as climate changes. However, risks to biodiversity are much smaller if the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to ‘well below 2°C’ warming, rather than 2°C only, is met. The potential for refugia for plants and animals decreases strongly with warming. For example, 82% of the basin remaining climatically suitable for at least 75% of the plants currently present at 1.5°C warming, as compared with 23% at 2°C and 3% at 4.5°C. This research provides the first assessment of the combined effects of development plans and climate change on biodiversity of the Tana River Basin, including identifying potential areas for restoration, and contributes to a greater understanding of biodiversity protection and adaptation options in Kenya.

Abiotic and Biotic Influences on the Movement of Reintroduced Chinese Giant Salamanders (Andrias davidianus) in Two Montane Rivers

Understanding animal movement is a key question in ecology and biodiversity conservation, which is particularly important for the success of reintroduction projects. The movement of critically endangered Chinese giant salamander (Andrias davidianus) remains poorly understood due to the rareness of wild individuals of this species. We lack movement details about the full annual cycle after reintroduction, especially the abiotic and biotic influences that affect its movement. We utilized pilot reintroduction projects as opportunities to fill in some knowledge gaps on their movement ecology. We released 31 juvenile captive-reared Chinese giant salamanders of two age groups in two rivers in the Qinling Mountains of central China and monitored their daily movements for 16 months using surgically implanted radio transmitters. We examined the impacts of individual traits (body mass, body condition) and environmental conditions (temperature, precipitation, and moon phase) on their daily movement patterns. Data were analyzed using a mixed-effects logistic regression model to understand the drivers of their movement tendency (i.e., whether they move or not) and a linear mixed-effects model was used to understand the drivers of their movement distance. We found that movement tendency of the older salamander cohort was positively affected by the moon phase, increasing near the Full Moon, whereas the younger cohort of animals were not impacted by the moon phase. For daily distance moved, we found temperature had a strong positive effect on both cohorts, whereas precipitation had moderate but opposite effects on the two cohorts Body mass and body condition did not have any significant impacts on either age classes' movement tendency or distance. This study provides insight into the abiotic factors that impact the temporal and spatial movement ecology of reintroduced giant salamander, which will in turn help with designing best practices for future releases and conservation of this iconic montane aquatic predator.

Current and time-lagged effects of climate on innate immunity in two sympatric snake species

Changing environments result in alterations at all levels of biological organization, from genetics to physiology to demography. The increasing frequency of droughts worldwide is associated with higher temperatures and reduced precipitation that can impact population persistence via effects on individual immune function and survival.We examined the effects of annual climate variation on immunity in two sympatric species of garter snakes from four populations in California over a seven-year period that included the record-breaking drought.We examined three indices of innate immunity: bactericidal competence (BC), natural antibodies (NABs), and complement-mediated lysis (CL).Precipitation was the only climatic variable explaining variation in immune function: spring precipitation of the current year was positively correlated to Thamnophis sirtalis BC and NABs, whereas spring precipitation of the previous year was positively correlated to T. elegans BC and NABs. This suggests that T. elegans experiences a physiological time-lag in response to reduced precipitation, which may reflect lack of capital for investment in immunity in the year following a dry year.In general, our findings demonstrate compelling evidence that climate can influence wild populations through effects on physiological processes, suggesting that physiological indices such as these may offer valuable opportunities for monitoring the effects of climate.

From satellites to frogs: Quantifying ecohydrological change, drought mitigation, and population demography in desert meadows

Increasing frequency and severity of droughts have motivated natural resource managers to mitigate harmful ecological and hydrological effects of drought, but drought mitigation is an emerging science and evaluating its effectiveness is difficult. We examined ecohydrological responses of drought mitigation actions aimed at conserving populations of the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) in a semi-arid valley in Nevada, USA. Abundance of this rare frog had declined precipitously after multiple droughts. Mitigation included excavating ponds to increase available surface water and installing earthen dams to raise water tables. We assessed responses of riparian vegetation to mitigation using a 30-year time series of satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and gridded weather data. We then analyzed a 23-year mark-recapture dataset to evaluate the effects of drought mitigation and NDVI on the probability of frog survival and rates of recruitment. After accounting for interannual precipitation variability, we found that NDVI increased significantly from before to after drought mitigation, suggesting that mitigation influenced the hydrology and vegetation of the meadows. Frog survival increased with NDVI, but mitigation had a stronger effect than NDVI suggesting that excavated mitigation ponds were particularly important for frog survival during drought. In contrast, frog recruitment was associated with NDVI more than mitigation, but only in meadows where NDVI was dependent on precipitation. At meadows with available groundwater, recruitment was associated with mitigation ponds. These findings suggest that mitigation ponds are critical for juvenile frogs to recruit into the adult population, but recruitment can also be increased by raising water tables in meadows lacking groundwater sources. Lagged recruitment (i.e., effects on larvae and juveniles) was negatively associated with NDVI. This study illustrates the ecohydrological complexity of drought mitigation and demonstrates novel ways to assess the effectiveness of drought mitigation using time series of readily available satellite imagery and organismal data.

Applied ecoimmunology: using immunological tools to improve conservation efforts in a changing world

Ecoimmunology is a rapidly developing field that explores how the environment shapes immune function, which in turn influences host-parasite relationships and disease outcomes. Host immune defence is a key fitness determinant because it underlies the capacity of animals to resist or tolerate potential infections. Importantly, immune function can be suppressed, depressed, reconfigured or stimulated by exposure to rapidly changing environmental drivers like temperature, pollutants and food availability. Thus, hosts may experience trade-offs resulting from altered investment in immune function under environmental stressors. As such, approaches in ecoimmunology can provide powerful tools to assist in the conservation of wildlife. Here, we provide case studies that explore the diverse ways that ecoimmunology can inform and advance conservation efforts, from understanding how Galapagos finches will fare with introduced parasites, to using methods from human oncology to design vaccines against a transmissible cancer in Tasmanian devils. In addition, we discuss the future of ecoimmunology and present 10 questions that can help guide this emerging field to better inform conservation decisions and biodiversity protection. From better linking changes in immune function to disease outcomes under different environmental conditions, to understanding how individual variation contributes to disease dynamics in wild populations, there is immense potential for ecoimmunology to inform the conservation of imperilled hosts in the face of new and re-emerging pathogens, in addition to improving the detection and management of emerging potential zoonoses.

Extensive geographical variation in testes size and ejaculate traits in a terrestrial-breeding frog

Ejaculate traits vary extensively among individuals and species, but little is known about their variation among populations of the same species. Here, we investigated patterns of intraspecific variation in male reproductive investment in the terrestrial-breeding frog Pseudophryne guentheri. Like most anurans, breeding activity in P. guentheri is cued by precipitation, and therefore the timing and duration of breeding seasons differ among geographically separated populations, potentially leading to differences in the level of sperm competition. We, therefore, anticipated local adaptation in sperm traits that reflect these phenological differences among populations. Our analysis of six natural populations across a rainfall gradient revealed significant divergence in testes and ejaculate traits that correspond with annual rainfall and rainfall seasonality; males from the northern and drier edge of the species range had significantly smaller testes containing fewer, smaller and less motile sperm compared with those from mesic central populations. These findings may reflect spatial variation in the strength of postcopulatory sexual selection, likely driven by local patterns of precipitation.

Identifying Problems in Watering Ponds with Different Purposes

The main goal of this study was to identify the problems that are putting the viability of watering ponds at risk. For doing that, we have analyzed five different study cases: (I) livestock consumption, Mediterranean climate (rangelands of SW Spain), (II) multifunctional ponds (Arroyo de la Luz, Spain), (III) ecotourism (Valdepajares de Tajo, Spain), (IV) crop irrigation and fish farming, semi-arid climate (the wilaya of Ouargla, Algeria), and (V) livestock consumption, humid subtropical climate (Prudentópolis, Brazil). The identification of problems was made through surveys, personal interviews, local knowledge and literature review as well as through the analysis of water quality parameters such as the concentration of phosphates and fecal coliforms in some ponds. We have identified problems of water shortage (ca. 50% of rangeland farmers), pollution induced by agriculture (maximum values of phosphates = 1.33 mg L−1) and livestock farming (maximum value of fecal coliforms ≈ 7000 cfu mL−1), low potability for human consumption (score: 2.8/7.0), invasive species such as Azolla filiculoides (10 out of 17 watering ponds), high water temperature for aquaculture in summer (Algeria) and the increase of turbidity in nearby water courses due to the actions of free-fattening pigs (Brazil), among many other problems. We conclude an extra effort by stakeholders is still needed in order to agree mitigation strategies.

Wetland Surface Water Detection from Multipath SAR Images Using Gaussian Process-Based Temporal Interpolation

Wetlands provide society with a myriad of ecosystem services, such as water storage, food sources, and flood control. The ecosystem services provided by a wetland are largely dependent on its hydrological dynamics. Constant monitoring of the spatial extent of water surfaces and the duration of flooding of a wetland is necessary to understand the impact of drought on the ecosystem services a wetland provides. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) has the potential to reveal wetland dynamics. Multitemporal SAR image analysis for wetland monitoring has been extensively studied based on the advances of modern SAR missions. Unfortunately, most previous studies utilized monopath SAR images, which result in limited success. Tracking changes in individual wetlands remains a challenging task because several environmental factors, such as wind-roughened water, degrade image quality. In general, the data acquisition frequency is an important factor in time series analysis. We propose a Gaussian process-based temporal interpolation (GPTI) method that enables the synergistic use of SAR images taken from multiple paths. The proposed model is applied to a series of Sentinel-1 images capturing wetlands in Okanogan County, Washington State. Our experimental analysis demonstrates that the multiple path analysis based on the proposed method can extract seasonal changes more accurately than a single path analysis.

Amphibian responses in the aftermath of extreme climate events

Climate change-induced extinctions are estimated to eliminate one in six known species by the end of the century. One major factor that will contribute to these extinctions is extreme climatic events. Here, we show the ecological impacts of recent record warm air temperatures and simultaneous peak drought conditions in California. From 2008-2016, the southern populations of a wide-ranging endemic amphibian (the California newt, Taricha torosa) showed a 20% reduction to mean body condition and significant losses to variation in body condition linked with extreme climate deviations. However, body condition in northern populations remained relatively unaffected during this period. Range-wide population estimates of change to body condition under future climate change scenarios within the next 50 years suggest that northern populations will mirror the loss of body condition recently observed in southern populations. This change is predicated on latter 21^st century climate deviations that resemble recent conditions in Southern California. Thus, the ecological consequences of climate change have already occurred across the warmer, drier regions of Southern California, and our results suggest that predicted climate vulnerable regions in the more mesic northern range likely will not provide climate refuge for numerous amphibian communities.

Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis infection in amphibians predates first known epizootic in Costa Rica

Emerging infectious diseases are a growing threat to biodiversity worldwide. Outbreaks of the infectious disease chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), are implicated in the decline and extinction of numerous amphibian species. In Costa Rica, a major decline event occurred in 1987, more than two decades before this pathogen was discovered. The loss of many species in Costa Rica is assumed to be due to Bd-epizootics, but there are few studies that provide data from amphibians in the time leading up to the proposed epizootics. In this study, we provide new data on Bd infection rates of amphibians collected throughout Costa Rica, in the decades prior to the epizootics. We used a quantitative PCR assay to test for Bd presence in 1016 anuran museum specimens collected throughout Costa Rica. The earliest specimen that tested positive for Bd was collected in 1964. Across all time periods, we found an overall infection rate (defined as the proportion of Bd-positive individuals) of 4%. The number of infected individuals remained relatively low across all species tested and the range of Bd-positive specimens was shown to be geographically constrained up until the 1980s; when epizootics are hypothesized to have occurred. After that time, infection rate increased three-fold, and the range of specimens tested positive for Bd increased, with Bd-positive specimens collected across the entire country. Our results suggest that Bd dynamics in Costa Rica are more complicated than previously thought. The discovery of Bd's presence in the country preceding massive declines leads to a number of different hypotheses: 1) Bd invaded Costa Rica earlier than previously known, and spread more slowly than previously reported; 2) Bd invaded multiple times and faded out; 3) an endemic Bd lineage existed; 4) an earlier Bd lineage evolved into the current Bd lineage or hybridized with an invasive lineage; or 5) an earlier Bd lineage went extinct and a new invasion event occurred causing epizootics. To help visualize areas where future studies should take place, we provide a Bd habitat suitability model trained with local data. Studies that provide information on genetic lineages of Bd are needed to determine the most plausible spatial-temporal, host-pathogen dynamics that could best explain the epizootics resulting in amphibian declines in Costa Rica and throughout Central America.

Drought-induced Suppression of Female Fecundity in a Capital Breeder

Human-induced global climate change is exerting increasingly strong selective pressures on a myriad of fitness traits that affect organisms. These traits, in turn, are influenced by a variety of environmental parameters such as temperature and precipitation, particularly in ectothermic taxa such as amphibians and reptiles. Over the past several decades, severe and prolonged episodes of drought are becoming commonplace throughout North America. Documentation of responses to this environmental crisis, however, is often incomplete, particularly in cryptic species. Here, we investigated reproduction in a population of pitviper snakes (copperhead, Agkistrodon contortrix), a live-bearing capital breeder. This population experienced a severe drought from 2012 through 2016. We tested whether declines in number of progeny were linked to this drought. Decline in total number offspring was significant, but offspring length and mass were unaffected. Reproductive output was positively impacted by precipitation and negatively impacted by high temperatures. We hypothesized that severe declines of prey species (e.g., cicada, amphibians, and small mammals) reduced energy acquisition during drought, negatively impacting reproductive output of the snakes. Support for this view was found using the periodical cicada (Magicicada spp.) as a proxy for prey availability. Various climate simulations, including our own qualitative analysis, predict that drought events will continue unabated throughout the geographic distribution of copperheads which suggests that long-term monitoring of populations are needed to better understand geographic variation in drought resilience and cascading impacts of drought phenomena on ecosystem function.

Hydrologic variability contributes to reduced survival through metamorphosis in a stream salamander

Changes in the amount, intensity, and timing of precipitation are increasing hydrologic variability in many regions, but we have little understanding of how these changes are affecting freshwater species. Stream-breeding amphibians-a diverse group in North America-may be particularly sensitive to hydrologic variability during aquatic larval and metamorphic stages. Here, we tested the prediction that hydrologic variability in streams decreases survival through metamorphosis in the salamander Gyrinophilus porphyriticus, reducing recruitment to the adult stage. Using a 20-y dataset from Merrill Brook, a stream in northern New Hampshire, we show that abundance of G. porphyriticus adults has declined by ∼50% since 1999, but there has been no trend in larval abundance. We then tested whether hydrologic variability during summers influences survival through metamorphosis, using capture-mark-recapture data from Merrill Brook (1999 to 2004) and from 4 streams in the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (2012 to 2014), also in New Hampshire. At both sites, survival through metamorphosis declined with increasing variability of stream discharge. These results suggest that hydrologic variability reduces the demographic resilience and adaptive capacity of G. porphyriticus populations by decreasing recruitment of breeding adults. They also provide insight on how increasing hydrologic variability is affecting freshwater species, and on the broader effects of environmental variability on species with vulnerable metamorphic stages.

Future hydrological constraints of the Montseny brook newt (Calotriton arnoldi) under changing climate and vegetation cover

The Montseny brook newt (Calotriton arnoldi) is a critically endangered amphibian species which inhabits a small 20 km2 holm oak and beech forest area in NE Spain. Calotriton arnoldi strictly lives in running waters and might be highly vulnerable to hydrological perturbations expected to occur under climate and vegetation cover changes. Knowledge about the potential response of the species habitat to environmental changes can help assessing the actions needed for its conservation. Based on knowledge of the species and supported by observations, we proposed daily low and high streamflow event thresholds for the viability of C. arnoldi. We used the rainfall-runoff model PERSiST to simulate changes in the frequency and duration of these events, which were predicted under two climate and four vegetation cover scenarios for near-future (2031-2050) and far-future (2081-2100) periods in a reference catchment. All future scenarios projected a significant decrease in annual streamflow (from 21% to as much as 67%) with respect to the reference period. The frequency and length of low streamflow events will dramatically increase. In contrast, the risk of catastrophic drift linked to high streamflow events was predicted to decrease. The potential change in vegetation toward an expansion of holm oak forests will be more important than climate changes in determining threshold low flow conditions. We thus demonstrated that consideration of potential changes in vegetation and not only changes in climate variables is essential in simulating future streamflows. This study shows that future low streamflow conditions will pose a severe threat for the survival of C. arnoldi and may help taking management actions, including limiting the expansion of holm oak forest, for ameliorating the species habitat and help its conservation.

A genome-wide search for local adaptation in a terrestrial-breeding frog reveals vulnerability to climate change

Terrestrial-breeding amphibians are likely to be vulnerable to warming and drying climates, as their embryos require consistent moisture for successful development. Adaptation to environmental change will depend on sufficient genetic variation existing within or between connected populations. Here, we use Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) data to investigate genome-wide patterns in genetic diversity, gene flow and local adaptation in a terrestrial-breeding frog (Pseudophryne guentheri) subject to a rapidly drying climate and recent habitat fragmentation. The species was sampled across 12 central and range-edge populations (192 samples), and strong genetic structure was apparent, as were high inbreeding coefficients. Populations showed differences in genetic diversity, and one population lost significant genetic diversity in a decade. More than 500 SNP loci were putatively under directional selection, and 413 of these loci were correlated with environmental variables such as temperature, rainfall, evaporation and soil moisture. One locus showed homology to a gene involved in the activation of maturation in Xenopus oocytes, which may facilitate rapid development of embryos in drier climates. The low genetic diversity, strong population structuring and presence of local adaptation revealed in this study shows why management strategies such as targeted gene flow may be necessary to assist isolated populations to adapt to future climates.

Seeking shelter from the storm: Conservation and management of imperiled species in a changing climate

Climate change is anticipated to exacerbate the extinction risk of species whose persistence is already compromised by habitat loss, invasive species, disease, or other stressors. In coastal areas of the southeastern United States (USA), many imperiled vertebrates are vulnerable to hurricanes, which climate models predict to become more severe in the 21st century. Despite this escalating threat, explicit adaptation strategies that address hurricane threats, in particular, and climate change more generally, are largely underrepresented in recovery planning and implementation. We provide a basis for stronger emphasis on strategic planning for imperiled species facing the increasing threat of catastrophic hurricanes. Our reasoning comes from observations of short-term environmental and biological impacts of Hurricane Michael, which impacted the Gulf Coast of the southeastern USA in October 2018. During this storm, St. Marks National Wildlife Refuge, located along the northern Gulf of Mexico's coast in the panhandle region of Florida, received storm surge that was 3.0-3.6 m (NAVD88) above sea level. Storm surge pushed sea water into some ephemeral freshwater ponds used for breeding by the federally threatened frosted flatwoods salamander (Ambystoma cingulatum). After the storm, specific conductance across all ponds measured varied from 80 to 23,100 µS/cm, compared to 75 to 445 µS/cm in spring 2018. For 17 overwashed wetlands that were measured in both spring and fall 2018, posthurricane conductance observations were, on average, more than 90 times higher than in the previous spring, setting the stage for varying population responses across this coastal landscape. Importantly, we found live individual flatwoods salamanders at both overwashed and non-overwashed sites, although we cannot yet assess the demographic consequences of this storm. We outline actions that could be incorporated into climate adaptation strategies and recovery planning for imperiled species, like A. cingulatum, that are associated with freshwater coastal wetlands in hurricane-prone regions.