Array-Based Epigenetic Aging Indices May Be Racially Biased

The Use of Precision Epigenetic Methods for the Diagnosis and Care of Stable Coronary Heart Disease Reduces Healthcare Costs

INTRODUCTION

The cost of secondary prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD) is continuing to increase, with a substantial portion of this acceleration being driven by the expense of confirmatory diagnostic testing. Conceivably, newly developed precision epigenetic technologies could drive down these costs. However, at the current time, their impact on overall expense for CHD care is poorly understood. We hypothesized that the use of a newly developed, highly sensitive, and specific epigenetic test, PrecisionCHD, could decrease the costs of secondary prevention.

METHODS

To test this hypothesis, we constructed a budget impact analysis using a cost calculation model that examined the effects of substituting PrecisionCHD for conventional CHD diagnostic tests on the expenses of the initial evaluation and first year of care of stable CHD using a 1-year time horizon with no discounting.

RESULTS

The model projected that for a commercial insurer with one million members, full adoption of PrecisionCHD as the primary method of initial CHD assessment would save approximately $113.6 million dollars in the initial year.

CONCLUSION

These analyses support the use of precision epigenetic methods as part of the initial diagnosis and care of stable CHD and can meaningfully reduce cost. Real-world pilots to test the reliability of these analyses are indicated.

Cumulative Stress Across the Life Course and Biological Aging in Adulthood

OBJECTIVE

Psychosocial stressors have been linked with accelerated biological aging in adults; however, few studies have examined stressors across the life course in relation to biological aging.

METHODS

In 359 individuals (57% White, 34% Black) from the Child Health and Development Studies Disparities study, economic (income, education, financial strain), social (parent-child relations, caretaker responsibilities) and traumatic (death of a sibling or child, violence exposure) stressors were assessed at multiple time points (birth and ages 9, 15, and 50 years). Experiences of major discrimination were assessed at age 50. Life period stress scores were then assessed as childhood (birth-age 15 years) and adulthood (age 50 years). At age 50 years, participants provided blood samples, and DNA methylation was assessed with the EPIC BeadChip. Epigenetic age was estimated using six epigenetic clocks (Horvath, Hannum, Skin and Blood age, PhenoAge, GrimAge, Dunedin Pace of Aging). Age acceleration was determined using residuals from regressing chronologic age on each of the epigenetic age metrics. Telomere length was assessed using the quantitative polymerase chain reaction-based methods.

RESULTS

In linear regression models adjusted for race and gender, total life stress, and childhood and adult stress independently predicted accelerated aging based on GrimAge and faster pace of aging based on the DunedinPace. Associations were attenuated after adjusting for smoking status. In sex-stratified analyses, greater childhood stress was associated with accelerated epigenetic aging among women but not men. No associations were noted with telomere length.

CONCLUSIONS

We found that cumulative stressors across the life course were associated with accelerated epigenetic age, with differences by sex (e.g., accelerated among women). Further research of this association in large and diverse samples is needed.

Structural racism in primary schools and changes in epigenetic age acceleration among Black and White youth

Structural racism generates racial inequities in U.S. primary education, including segregated schools, inequitable funding and resources, racial disparities in discipline and achievement, and hostile racial climates, which are risk factors for adverse youth health and development. Black youth are disproportionately exposed to adverse school contexts that may become biologically embedded via stress-mediated epigenetic pathways. This study examined whether childhood exposure to adverse school contexts is associated with changes in epigenetic aging during adolescent development. DNA methylation-based epigenetic clocks were calculated from saliva samples at ages 9 and 15 among Black (n = 774) and White (n = 287) youth in the Future of Families and Child Wellbeing Study (2009-2015). We performed latent class analyses to identify race-specific primary school contexts using administrative data on segregation, discipline, achievement, resources, economic disadvantage, and racial harassment. We then estimated change in epigenetic age acceleration from childhood to adolescence across school typologies using GrimAge, PhenoAge, and DunedinPACE epigenetic clocks. Three distinct school contexts were identified for Black youth: segregated and highly-disadvantaged (17.0%), segregated and moderately-disadvantaged (52.1%), and integrated and moderately-disadvantaged (30.8%). Two school contexts emerged for White youth: integrated and unequal (46.5%) and predominantly White & advantaged (53.5%). At age 15, Black youth who attended segregated and highly-disadvantaged primary schools experienced increases in their speed of epigenetic aging with GrimAge and DunedinPACE. Slowed epigenetic aging with GrimAge was observed for Black youth who attended integrated and moderately-disadvantaged schools. School contexts were not associated with changes in epigenetic age acceleration for White youth. Our findings suggest that manifestations of structural racism in primary school contexts are associated with early-life epigenetic age acceleration and may forecast future health inequities.

Greater stress and trauma mediate race-related differences in epigenetic age between Black and White young adults in a community sample

Black Americans suffer lower life expectancy and show signs of accelerated aging compared to other Americans. While previous studies observe these differences in children and populations with chronic illness, whether these pathologic processes exist or how these pathologic processes progress has yet to be explored prior to the onset of significant chronic illness, within a young adult population. Therefore, we investigated race-related differences in epigenetic age in a cross-sectional sample of young putatively healthy adults and assessed whether lifetime stress and/or trauma mediate those differences. Biological and psychological data were collected from self-reported healthy adult volunteers within the local New Haven area (399 volunteers, 19.8% Black, mean age: 29.28). Stress and trauma data was collected using the Cumulative Adversity Inventory (CAI) interview, which assessed specific types of stressors, including major life events, traumatic events, work, financial, relationship and chronic stressors cumulatively over time. GrimAge Acceleration (GAA), determined from whole blood collected from participants, measured epigenetic age. In order to understand the impact of stress and trauma on GAA, exploratory mediation analyses were then used. We found cumulative stressors across all types of events (mean difference of 6.9 p = 2.14e-4) and GAA (β = 2.29 years [1.57-3.01, p = 9.70e-10] for race, partial η2 = 0.091, model adjusted R2 = 0.242) were significantly greater in Black compared to White participants. Critically, CAI total score (proportion mediated: 0.185 [0.073-0.34, p = 6e-4]) significantly mediated the relationship between race and GAA. Further analysis attributed this difference to more traumatic events, particularly assaultive traumas and death of loved ones. Our results suggest that, prior to development of significant chronic disease, Black individuals have increased epigenetic age compared to White participants and that increased cumulative stress and traumatic events may contribute significantly to this epigenetic aging difference.

Metal mixtures and DNA methylation measures of biological aging in American Indian populations

INTRODUCTION

Native American communities suffer disproportionately from elevated metal exposures and increased risk for cardiovascular diseases and diabetes. DNA methylation is a sensitive biomarker of aging-related processes and novel epigenetic-based "clocks" can be used to estimate accelerated biological aging that may underlie increased risk. Metals alter DNA methylation, yet little is known about their individual and combined impact on epigenetic age acceleration. Our objective was to investigate the associations of metals on several DNA methylation-based aging measures in the Strong Heart Study (SHS) cohort.

METHODS

Blood DNA methylation data from 2,301 SHS participants was used to calculate age acceleration of epigenetic clocks (PhenoAge, GrimAge, DunedinPACE, Hannum, Horvath). Urinary metals [arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), tungsten (W), zinc (Zn), selenium (Se), molybdenum (Mo)] were creatinine-adjusted and categorized into quartiles. We examined associations of individual metals through linear regression models and used Bayesian Kernel Machine Regression (BKMR) for the impact of the total metal mixture on epigenetic age acceleration.

RESULTS

The mixture of nonessential metals (W, As, Cd) was associated with greater GrimAge acceleration and DunedinPACE, while the essential metal mixture (Se, Zn, Mo) was associated with lower epigenetic age acceleration. Cd was associated with increased epigenetic age acceleration across all clocks and BKMR analysis suggested nonlinear associations between Se and DunedinPACE, GrimAge, and PhenoAge acceleration. No interactions between individual metals were observed. The associations between Cd, Zn, and epigenetic age acceleration were greater in never smokers in comparison to current/former smokers.

CONCLUSION

Nonessential metals were positively associated with greater epigenetic age acceleration, with strongest associations observed between Cd and DunedinPACE and GrimAge acceleration. In contrast, essential metals were associated with lower epigenetic aging. Examining the influence of metal mixtures on epigenetic age acceleration can provide insight into metals and aging-related diseases.

Epigenetic clocks and research implications of the lack of data on whom they have been developed: a review of reported and missing sociodemographic characteristics

Epigenetic clocks are increasingly being used as a tool to assess the impact of a wide variety of phenotypes and exposures on healthy ageing, with a recent focus on social determinants of health. However, little attention has been paid to the sociodemographic characteristics of participants on whom these clocks have been based. Participant characteristics are important because sociodemographic and socioeconomic factors are known to be associated with both DNA methylation variation and healthy ageing. It is also well known that machine learning algorithms have the potential to exacerbate health inequities through the use of unrepresentative samples - prediction models may underperform in social groups that were poorly represented in the training data used to construct the model. To address this gap in the literature, we conducted a review of the sociodemographic characteristics of the participants whose data were used to construct 13 commonly used epigenetic clocks. We found that although some of the epigenetic clocks were created utilizing data provided by individuals from different ages, sexes/genders, and racialized groups, sociodemographic characteristics are generally poorly reported. Reported information is limited by inadequate conceptualization of the social dimensions and exposure implications of gender and racialized inequality, and socioeconomic data are infrequently reported. It is important for future work to ensure clear reporting of tangible data on the sociodemographic and socioeconomic characteristics of all the participants in the study to ensure that other researchers can make informed judgements about the appropriateness of the model for their study population.

Associations of stress and stress-related psychiatric disorders with GrimAge acceleration: review and suggestions for future work

The notion of "biological aging" as distinct from chronological aging has been of increasing interest in psychiatry, and many studies have explored associations of stress and psychiatric illness with accelerated biological aging. The "epigenetic clocks" are one avenue of this research, wherein "biological age" is estimated using DNA methylation data from specific CpG dinucleotide sites within the human genome. Many iterations of the epigenetic clocks have been developed, but the GrimAge clock continues to stand out for its ability to predict morbidity and mortality. Several studies have now explored associations of stress, PTSD, and MDD with GrimAge acceleration (GrimAA). While stress, PTSD, and MDD are distinct psychiatric entities, they may share common mechanisms underlying accelerated biological aging. Yet, no one has offered a review of the evidence on associations of stress and stress-related psychopathology with GrimAA. In this review, we identify nine publications on associations of stress, PTSD, and MDD with GrimAA. We find that results are mixed both within and across each of these exposures. However, we also find that analytic methods - and specifically, the choice of covariates - vary widely between studies. To address this, we draw upon popular methods from the field of clinical epidemiology to offer (1) a systematic framework for covariate selection, and (2) an approach to results reporting that facilitates analytic consensus. Although covariate selection will differ by the research question, we encourage researchers to consider adjustment for tobacco, alcohol use, physical activity, race, sex, adult socioeconomic status, medical comorbidity, and blood cell composition.

Adolescent peer struggles predict accelerated epigenetic aging in midlife

This study examined struggles to establish autonomy and relatedness with peers in adolescence and early adulthood as predictors of advanced epigenetic aging assessed at age 30. Participants (N = 154; 67 male and 87 female) were observed repeatedly, along with close friends and romantic partners, from ages 13 through 29. Observed difficulty establishing close friendships characterized by mutual autonomy and relatedness from ages 13 to 18, an interview-assessed attachment state of mind lacking autonomy and valuing of attachment at 24, and self-reported difficulties in social integration across adolescence and adulthood were all linked to greater epigenetic age at 30, after accounting for chronological age, gender, race, and income. Analyses assessing the unique and combined effects of these factors, along with lifetime history of cigarette smoking, indicated that each of these factors, except for adult social integration, contributed uniquely to explaining epigenetic age acceleration. Results are interpreted as evidence that the adolescent preoccupation with peer relationships may be highly functional given the relevance of such relationships to long-term physical outcomes.

An integrative framework and recommendations for the study of DNA methylation in the context of race and ethnicity

Human social epigenomics research is critical to elucidate the intersection of social and genetic influences underlying racial and ethnic differences in health and development. However, this field faces major challenges in both methodology and interpretation with regard to disentangling confounded social and biological aspects of race and ethnicity. To address these challenges, we discuss how these constructs have been approached in the past and how to move forward in studying DNA methylation (DNAm), one of the best-characterized epigenetic marks in humans, in a responsible and appropriately nuanced manner. We highlight self-reported racial and ethnic identity as the primary measure in this field, and discuss its implications in DNAm research. Racial and ethnic identity reflects the biological embedding of an individual's sociocultural experience and environmental exposures in combination with the underlying genetic architecture of the human population (i.e., genetic ancestry). Our integrative framework demonstrates how to examine DNAm in the context of race and ethnicity, while considering both intrinsic factors-including genetic ancestry-and extrinsic factors-including structural and sociocultural environment and developmental niches-when focusing on early-life experience. We reviewed DNAm research in relation to health disparities given its relevance to race and ethnicity as social constructs. Here, we provide recommendations for the study of DNAm addressing racial and ethnic differences, such as explicitly acknowledging the self-reported nature of racial and ethnic identity, empirically examining the effects of genetic variants and accounting for genetic ancestry, and investigating race-related and culturally regulated environmental exposures and experiences.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s44155-023-00039-z.

Digital methylation assessments of alcohol and cigarette consumption account for common variance in accelerated epigenetic ageing

Smoking and Heavy Alcohol Consumption (HAC) are established risk factors for myriad complex disorders of ageing. Yet many prior studies of Epigenetic Ageing (EA) have shown only modest effects of smoking and drinking on accelerated ageing. One potential reason for this conundrum might be the reliance of some prior EA studies on self-reported substance use, which may be unreliable in many samples. To test whether novel, non-self-reported indices would show a stronger association of smoking and HAC to EA, we used methylation sensitive digital PCR (MSdPCR) and data from 437 African American subjects from Wave 7 of the Family and Community Health Study Offspring Cohort to examine the effects of subjective and objective measures of smoking and HAC on 7 indices of EA. Because of limited overall correlations between the various EA indices, we examined patterns of association separately for each index. Consistent with expectations, MSdPCR assessments of smoking and HAC, but not self-reported alcohol consumption, were strongly correlated with accelerated EA. MSdPCR assessments of smoking and HAC accounted for 57% of GrimAge acceleration and the shared variance in GrimAge and DunedinPOAM accelerated EA. We conclude that MSdPCR assessments of smoking and HAC are valuable tools for understanding EA, represent directly targetable conditions for the prevention of premature ageing, and substantially improve upon self-reported assessment of smoking and HAC.

Associations Between DNA Methylation Age Acceleration, Depressive Symptoms, and Cardiometabolic Traits in African American Mothers From the InterGEN Study

Background

African American women (AAW) have a high risk of both cardiometabolic (CM) illness and depressive symptoms. Depressive symptoms co-occur in individuals with CM illness at higher rates than the general population, and accelerated aging may explain this. In this secondary analysis, we examined associations between age acceleration; depressive symptoms; and CM traits (hypertension, diabetes mellitus [DM], and obesity) in a cohort of AAW.

Methods

Genomic and clinical data from the InterGEN cohort (n = 227) were used. Age acceleration was based on the Horvath method of DNA methylation (DNAm) age estimation. Accordingly, DNAm age acceleration (DNAm AA) was defined as the residuals from a linear regression of DNAm age on chronological age. Spearman's correlations, linear and logistic regression examined associations between DNAm AA, depressive symptoms, and CM traits.

Results

DNAm AA did not associate with total depressive symptom scores. DNAm AA correlated with specific symptoms including self-disgust/self-hate (-0.13, 95% CI -0.26, -0.01); difficulty with making decisions (-0.15, 95% CI -0.28, -0.02); and worry over physical health (0.15, 95% CI 0.02, 0.28), but were not statistically significant after multiple comparison correction. DNAm AA associated with obesity (0.08, 95% CI 1.02, 1.16), hypertension (0.08, 95% CI 1.01, 1.17), and DM (0.20, 95% CI 1.09, 1.40), after adjustment for potential confounders.

Conclusions

Associations between age acceleration and depressive symptoms may be highly nuanced and dependent on study design contexts. Factors other than age acceleration may explain the connection between depressive symptoms and CM traits. AAW with CM traits may be at increased risk of accelerated aging.

Intervention effects on self-control decrease speed of biological aging mediated by changes in substance use: A longitudinal study of African American youth

Biological aging is a common root for multiple diseases causing morbidity and mortality, and trajectories of aging may start early in life. This study was designed to examine whether a universal family-based substance use preventive intervention to enhance self-control and reduce substance use would also result in reductions in biological aging among Black youth from the rural South. The Adults in the Making (AIM) program is a randomized controlled trial with six 2-h sessions for Black youth. The 216 youths agreeing to provide blood at age 22 included 114 who had received the AIM intervention and 102 who assigned to the control group. We examined accelerated DNA methylation (DNAm)-based aging using a recently developed measure, "GrimAge," that has been shown to predict the risk of early mortality and that is known to be more strongly affected by substance use than other DNAm-based aging indices. Relative to those randomly assigned to the control group, those receiving the intervention demonstrated significantly enhanced self-control, slower increases in substance use, and reduced Grim aging at age 22. Using a bootstrapping method with 1000 replications, we found a significant indirect effect of AIM on reduced Grim aging through its effect on self-control and substance use. Sensitivity analyses examined effects using other indices of DNAm-based aging. These findings suggest that a family-based program designed to enhance rural Black youth's self-control can have beneficial effects on self-control, enhancing young adult health and health behavior, and ultimately decreased mortality risk.

A biosocial return to race? A cautionary view for the postgenomic era

Recent studies demonstrating epigenetic and developmental sensitivity to early environments, as exemplified by fields like the Developmental Origins of Health and Disease (DOHaD) and environmental epigenetics, are bringing new data and models to bear on debates about race, genetics, and society. Here, we first survey the historical prominence of models of environmental determinism in early formulations of racial thinking to illustrate how notions of direct environmental effects on bodies have been used to naturalize racial hierarchy and inequalities in the past. Next, we conduct a scoping review of postgenomic work in environmental epigenetics and DOHaD that looks at the role of race/ethnicity in human health (2000–2021). Although there is substantial heterogeneity in how race is conceptualized and interpreted across studies, we observe practices that may unwittingly encourage typological thinking, including: using DNA methylation as a novel marker of racial classification; neglect of variation and reversibility within supposedly homogenous racial groups; and a tendency to label and reify whole groups as pathologized or impaired. Even in the very different politico‐economic and epistemic context of contemporary postgenomic science, these trends echo deeply held beliefs in Western thinking which claimed that different environments shape different bodies and then used this logic to argue for essential differences between Europeans and non‐Europeans. We conclude with a series of suggestions on interpreting and reporting findings in these fields that we feel will help researchers harness this work to benefit disadvantaged groups while avoiding the inadvertent dissemination of new and old forms of stigma or prejudice.

DNAm-based signatures of accelerated aging and mortality in blood are associated with low renal function

BACKGROUND

The difference between an individual's chronological and DNA methylation predicted age (DNAmAge), termed DNAmAge acceleration (DNAmAA), can capture life-long environmental exposures and age-related physiological changes reflected in methylation status. Several studies have linked DNAmAA to morbidity and mortality, yet its relationship with kidney function has not been assessed. We evaluated the associations between seven DNAm aging and lifespan predictors (as well as GrimAge components) and five kidney traits (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR], urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio [uACR], serum urate, microalbuminuria and chronic kidney disease [CKD]) in up to 9688 European, African American and Hispanic/Latino individuals from seven population-based studies.

RESULTS

We identified 23 significant associations in our large trans-ethnic meta-analysis (p < 1.43E-03 and consistent direction of effect across studies). Age acceleration measured by the Extrinsic and PhenoAge estimators, as well as Zhang's 10-CpG epigenetic mortality risk score (MRS), were associated with all parameters of poor kidney health (lower eGFR, prevalent CKD, higher uACR, microalbuminuria and higher serum urate). Six of these associations were independently observed in European and African American populations. MRS in particular was consistently associated with eGFR (β =  - 0.12, 95% CI = [- 0.16, - 0.08] change in log-transformed eGFR per unit increase in MRS, p = 4.39E-08), prevalent CKD (odds ratio (OR) = 1.78 [1.47, 2.16], p = 2.71E-09) and higher serum urate levels (β = 0.12 [0.07, 0.16], p = 2.08E-06). The "first-generation" clocks (Hannum, Horvath) and GrimAge showed different patterns of association with the kidney traits. Three of the DNAm-estimated components of GrimAge, namely adrenomedullin, plasminogen-activation inhibition 1 and pack years, were positively associated with higher uACR, serum urate and microalbuminuria.

CONCLUSION

DNAmAge acceleration and DNAm mortality predictors estimated in whole blood were associated with multiple kidney traits, including eGFR and CKD, in this multi-ethnic study. Epigenetic biomarkers which reflect the systemic effects of age-related mechanisms such as immunosenescence, inflammaging and oxidative stress may have important mechanistic or prognostic roles in kidney disease. Our study highlights new findings linking kidney disease to biological aging, and opportunities warranting future investigation into DNA methylation biomarkers for prognostic or risk stratification in kidney disease.

Adopting a "Compound" Exposome Approach in Environmental Aging Biomarker Research: A Call to Action for Advancing Racial Health Equity

BACKGROUND

In June 2020, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine hosted a virtual workshop focused on integrating the science of aging and environmental health research. The concurrent COVID-19 pandemic and national attention on racism exposed shortcomings in the environmental research field's conceptualization and methodological use of race, which have subsequently hindered the ability of research to address racial health disparities. By the workshop's conclusion, the authors deduced that the utility of environmental aging biomarkers-aging biomarkers shown to be specifically influenced by environmental exposures-would be greatly diminished if these biomarkers are developed absent of considerations of broader societal factors-like structural racism-that impinge on racial health equity.

OBJECTIVES

The authors reached a post-workshop consensus recommendation: To advance racial health equity, a "compound" exposome approach should be widely adopted in environmental aging biomarker research. We present this recommendation here.

DISCUSSION

The authors believe that without explicit considerations of racial health equity, people in most need of the benefits afforded by a better understanding of the relationships between exposures and aging will be the least likely to receive them because biomarkers may not encompass cumulative impacts from their unique social and environmental stressors. Employing an exposome approach that allows for more comprehensive exposure-disease pathway characterization across broad domains, including the social exposome and neighborhood factors, is the first step. Exposome-centered study designs must then be supported with efforts aimed at increasing the recruitment and retention of racially diverse study populations and researchers and further "compounded" with strategies directed at improving the use and interpretation of race throughout the publication and dissemination process. This compound exposome approach maximizes the ability of our science to identify environmental aging biomarkers that explicate racial disparities in health and best positions the environmental research community to contribute to the elimination of racial health disparities. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP8392.

Comparison of DNA methylation clocks in Black South African men

Aims: DNA methylation clocks are widely used to estimate biological age, although limited data are available on non-European ethnicities. This manuscript characterizes the behavior of five DNA methylation clocks in 120 older Black South African men. Methods: The age estimation accuracy of the Horvath, Hannum and skin and blood clocks and the relative age-related mortality risk and predicted time to death portrayed by the PhenoAge and GrimAge biomarkers are investigated, respectively. Results: The results confirm the tendency of DNA methylation clocks to underestimate the biological age of older individuals. GrimAge more accurately characterizes biological decline in this African cohort compared with PhenoAge owing to the unique inclusion of smoking-related damage in the GrimAge estimate. Conclusions: Each clock provides a different fraction of information regarding the aging body. It is essential to continue studying under-represented population groups to ensure methylation-derived indicators are robust and useful in all populations.

A simple, rapid, interpretable, actionable and implementable digital PCR based mortality index

Mortality assessments are conducted for both civil and commercial purposes. Recent advances in epigenetics have resulted in DNA methylation tools to assess risk and aid in this task. However, widely available array-based algorithms are not readily translatable into clinical tools and do not provide a good foundation for clinical recommendations. Further, recent work shows evidence of heritability and possible racial bias in these indices. Using a publicly available array data set, the Framingham Heart Study (FHS), we develop and test a five-locus mortality-risk algorithm using only previously validated methylation biomarkers that have been shown to be free of racial bias, and that provide specific assessments of smoking, alcohol consumption, diabetes and heart disease. We show that a model using age, sex and methylation measurements at these five loci outperforms the 513 probe Levine index and approximates the predictive power of the 1030 probe GrimAge index. We then show each of the five loci in our algorithm can be assessed using a more powerful, reference-free digital PCR approach, further demonstrating that it is readily clinically translatable. Finally, we show the loci do not reflect ethnically specific variation. We conclude that this algorithm is a simple, yet powerful tool for assessing mortality risk. We further suggest that the output from this or similarly derived algorithms using either array or digital PCR can be used to provide powerful feedback to patients, guide recommendations for additional medical assessments, and help monitor the effect of public health prevention interventions.