Managing the health impacts of drought in Brazil

Existing Challenges and Opportunities for Advancing Drought and Health Research

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Drought is one of the most far-reaching natural disasters, yet drought and health research is sparse. This may be attributed to the challenge of quantifying drought exposure, something complicated by multiple drought indices without any designed for health research. The purpose of this general review is to evaluate current drought and health literature and highlight challenges or scientific considerations when performing drought exposure and health assessments.

RECENT FINDINGS

The literature revealed a small, but growing, number of drought and health studies primarily emphasizing Australian, western European, and US populations. The selection of drought indices and definitions of drought are inconsistent. Rural and agricultural populations have been identified as vulnerable cohorts, particularly for mental health outcomes. Using relevant examples, we discuss the importance of characterizing drought and explore why health outcomes, populations of interest, and compound environmental hazards are crucial considerations for drought and health assessments. As climate and health research is prioritized, we propose guidance for investigators performing drought-focused analyses.

Identifying gaps on health impacts, exposures, and vulnerabilities to climate change on human health and wellbeing in South America: a scoping review

There is an important gap in regional information on climate change and health, limiting the development of science-based climate policies in South American countries. This study aims to identify the main gaps in the existing scientific literature on the impacts, exposure, and vulnerabilities of climate change on population health. A scoping review was performed guided by four sub-questions focused on the impacts of climate change on physical and mental health, exposure and vulnerability factors of population to climate hazards. The main findings showed that physical impacts mainly included infectious diseases, while mental health impacts included trauma, depression, and anxiety. Evidence on population exposure to climate hazards is limited, and social determinants of health and individual factors were identified as vulnerability factors. Overall, evidence on the intersection between climate change and health is limited in South America and has been generated in silos, with limited transdisciplinary research. More formal and systematic information should be generated to inform public policy.

Funding

None.

Perception of health risks in contexts of extreme climate change in semiarid Northeastern Brazil: an analysis of the role of socioeconomic variables

BACKGROUND

Global climate change poses a significant challenge in contemporary society, particularly affecting vulnerable populations like small farmers residing in arid and semiarid regions. This study aims to investigate the perception of health risks and adaptive responses in the semiarid region of Northeast Brazil (NEB). Four questions were formulated: (1) How do socioeconomic factors influence the perception of health risks during extreme climate events? (2) How do socioeconomic factors impact the adoption of adaptive responses to mitigate health risks during extreme weather events? (3) How does the perceived risk level affect the utilization of adaptive responses? (4) What is the influence of extreme climate events on the perceived risks and the adoption of adaptive responses?

METHOD

The research was conducted in the rural community of Carão, situated in the Agreste region of the State of Pernambuco, NEB. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 49 volunteers aged 18 and above. The interviews aimed to gather socioeconomic information, including sex, age, income, access to healthcare services, family size, and education level. Additionally, the interviews explored the perceived risks and responses employed during different extreme climate events such as droughts or heavy rainfall. The perceived risks and adaptive responses data were quantified to address the research questions. Generalized linear models were employed to analyze the data for the first three questions, while the nonparametric Mann-Whitney test was used for the fourth question.

RESULTS

The study found no significant differences in the level of perceived risk and adaptive responses between the two climate extremes. However, the quantity of adaptive responses was found to be directly influenced by the perceived risks, regardless of the type of extreme climate event.

CONCLUSION

The study concludes that risk perception is influenced by various complex factors, including socioeconomic variables, and plays a critical role in the adoption of adaptive responses during extreme climate events. The findings suggest that specific socioeconomic variables have a more pronounced influence on how individuals perceive and adapt to risks. Furthermore, the results indicate a cause-and-effect relationship between perceived risks and the generation of adaptive responses. These findings contribute to a better understanding of the factors shaping risk perception and provide valuable insights for future studies in regions prone to extreme climate events.

A machine learning analysis of drought and rural population change on the North American Great Plains since the 1970s

Machine learning techniques have to date not been widely used in population-environment research, but represent a promising tool for identifying relationships between environmental variables and population outcomes. They may be particularly useful for instances where the nature of the relationship is not obvious or not easily detected using other methods, or where the relationship potentially varies across spatial scales within a given study unit. Machine learning techniques may also help the researcher identify the relative strength of influence of specific variables within a larger set of interacting ones, and so provide a useful methodological approach for exploratory research. In this study, we use machine learning techniques in the form of random forest and regression tree analyses to look for possible connections between drought and rural population loss on the North American Great Plains between 1970 and 2020. In doing so, we analyzed four decades of population count data (at county-size spatial scales), monthly climate data, and Palmer Drought Severity Index scores for Canada and the USA at multiple spatial scales (regional, sub-regional, national, and county/census division levels), along with county level irrigation data. We found that in some parts of Saskatchewan and the Dakotas - particularly those areas that fall within more temperate/less arid ecological sub-regions - drought conditions in the middle years of the 1970s had a significant association with rural population losses. A similar but weaker association was identified in a small cluster of North Dakota counties in the 1990s. Our models detected few links between drought and rural population loss in other decades or in other parts of the Great Plains. Based on R-squared results, models for US portions of the Plains generally exhibited stronger drought-population loss associations than did Canadian portions, and temperate ecological sub-regions exhibited stronger associations than did more arid sub-regions. Irrigation rates showed no significant influence on population loss. This article focuses on describing the methodological steps, considerations, and benefits of employing this type of machine learning approach to investigating connections between drought and rural population change.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11111-022-00399-9.

Evaluating Changes in Health Risk from Drought over the Contiguous United States

The outcomes of drought can be difficult to assess due to the complexity of its effects. While most risk assessments of drought are developed for agriculture or water resources, the associations with human health are not well studied due to unclear and complex pathways. This study is the first to assess potential changes in health risk from droughts during the last decade in the contiguous United States. To assess the risk, we spatially superimposed vulnerability variables associated with drought on historical drought exposure over the last decade. Different variations in Local Moran's I statistics were used to assess the spatial distribution of health vulnerability, risk of drought, and changes in the two five-year study periods (2010-2014 and 2015-2019). Our results show large clusters of the western United States had a significant increase in risk during the latter part of the study period due to increases in vulnerability and hazard. In addition, southern areas of the United States were consistently above the national average in drought risk. Since our vulnerability variables include agriculture, drinking water, and sociodemographic indicators, the results of this study can help various experts interested in drought preparedness efforts associated with human health.

Effects of Drought on Mortality in Macro Urban Areas of Brazil Between 2000 and 2019

A significant fraction of Brazil's population has been exposed to drought in recent years, a situation that is expected to worsen in frequency and intensity due to climate change. This constitutes a current key environmental health concern, especially in densely urban areas such as several big cities and suburbs. For the first time, a comprehensive assessment of the short-term drought effects on weekly non-external, circulatory, and respiratory mortality was conducted in 13 major Brazilian macro-urban areas across 2000-2019. We applied quasi-Poisson regression models adjusted by temperature to explore the association between drought (defined by the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index) and the different mortality causes by location, sex, and age groups. We next conducted multivariate meta-analytical models separated by cause and population groups to pool individual estimates. Impact measures were expressed as the attributable fractions among the exposed population, from the relative risks (RRs). Overall, a positive association between drought exposure and mortality was evidenced in the total population, with RRs varying from 1.003 [95% CI: 0.999-1.007] to 1.010 [0.996-1.025] for non-external mortality related to moderate and extreme drought conditions, from 1.002 [0.997-1.007] to 1.008 [0.991-1.026] for circulatory mortality, and from 1.004 [0.995-1.013] to 1.013 [0.983-1.044] for respiratory mortality. Females, children, and the elderly population were the most affected groups, for whom a robust positive association was found. The study also revealed high heterogeneity between locations. We suggest that policies and action plans should pay special attention to vulnerable populations to promote efficient measures to reduce vulnerability and risks associated with droughts.

The Effects of Drought Severity and Its Aftereffects on Mortality in Bangladesh

Background

Drought has been a considerable problem for many years in northern Bangladesh. However, the health impacts of drought in this region are not well understood.

Methods

This study analyzed the impact of drought duration and severity on select causes of mortality in northern Bangladesh. Rainfall data from three meteorological stations (Rangpur, Dinajpur and Nilphamari) in northern Bangladesh were used to assess drought and non-drought periods, and the Standardized Precipitation Index was used to categorize mild, moderate, severe, and extreme drought. Mortality data from 2007 to 2017 for the three areas were collected from the Sample Vital Registration System, which is a survey of 1 million people. The generalized linear model with Poisson regression link was used to identify associations between mortality and the drought severity and 1-month preceding SPI.

Results

Only severe and extreme drought in the short-term drought periods affected mortality. Long-term drought was not associated with natural cause mortality in Rangpur and Nilphamari. In Dinajpur, mild and moderate drought was associated with circulatory- and respiratory-related mortality.

Conclusion

The impact of drought on mortality varied by region. This study improves our understanding of how droughts affect specific causes of mortality and will help policy makers to take appropriate measures against drought impacts on selected cause of mortality. Future research will be critical to reduce drought-related risks of health.

Analyzing Spatial Patterns of Health Vulnerability to Drought in the Brazilian Semiarid Region

Health determinants might play an important role in shaping the impacts related to long-term disasters such as droughts. Understanding their distribution in populated dry regions may help to map vulnerabilities and set coping strategies for current and future threats to human health. The aim of the study was to identify the most vulnerable municipalities of the Brazilian semiarid region when it comes to the relationship between drought, health, and their determinants using a multidimensional index. From a place-based framework, epidemiological, socio-economic, rural, and health infrastructure data were obtained for 1135 municipalities in the Brazilian semiarid region. An exploratory factor analysis was used to reduce 32 variables to four independent factors and compute a Health Vulnerability Index. The health vulnerability was modulated by social determinants, rural characteristics, and access to water in this semiarid region. There was a clear distinction between municipalities with the highest human welfare and economic development and those municipalities with the worst living conditions and health status. Spatial patterns showed a cluster of the most vulnerable municipalities in the western, eastern, and northeastern portions of the semiarid region. The spatial visualization of the associated vulnerabilities supports decision making on health promotion policies that should focus on reducing social inequality. In addition, policymakers are presented with a simple tool to identify populations or areas with the worst socioeconomic and health conditions, which can facilitate the targeting of actions and resources on a more equitable basis. Further, the results contribute to the understanding of social determinants that may be related to medium- and long-term health outcomes in the region.

The complex multi-sectoral impacts of drought: Evidence from a mountainous basin in the Central Spanish Pyrenees

We analyzed the impacts of drought severity on a variety of sectors in a topographically complex basin (the upper Aragón basin 2181 km²) in the Central Spanish Pyrenees. Using diverse data sources including meteorological and hydrological observations, remote sensing and tree rings, we analyze the possible hydrological implications of drought occurrence and severity on water availability in various sectors, including downstream impacts on irrigation water supply for crop production. Results suggest varying responses in forest activity, secondary growth, plant phenology, and crop yield to drought impacts. Specifically, meteorological droughts have distinct impacts downstream, mainly due to water partitioning between streamflow and irrigation channels that transport water to crop producing areas. This implies that drought severity can extend beyond the physical boundaries of the basin, with impacts on crop productivity. This complex response to drought impacts makes it difficult to develop objective basin-scale operational definitions for monitoring drought severity. Moreover, given the high spatial variability in responses to drought across sectors, it is difficult to establish reliable drought thresholds from indices that are relevant across all socio-economic sectors. The anthropogenic impacts (e.g. water regulation projects, ecosystem services, land cover and land use changes) pose further challenges to assessing the response of different systems to drought severity. This study stresses the need to consider the seasonality of drought impacts and appropriate drought time scales to adequately assess and understand their complexity.

An epidemiological index for drought vulnerability in the Rio Grande do Norte State, Brazil

In the Northeast Brazil (NEB), the impacts of climate extreme events such as severe droughts are aggravated by poverty and poor socioeconomic conditions. In this region, such events usually result in the spread of endemic diseases, problems in water distribution, and agricultural losses, often leading to an increase in the population's vulnerability. Thus, this study aims to evaluate the microregions of the Rio Grande do Norte (RN) state, in the NEB, according to the Epidemiological Index for Drought Vulnerability (EIDV). We mapped and classified the microregions according to three dimensions of vulnerability: risk, susceptibility, and adaptive capacity. We also verified potential associations between drought risk and epidemiological vulnerability. The EIDV was calculated by considering the three dimensions of vulnerability as mutually exclusive events and applying the third axiom of probability. Then we carried out a cluster analysis in order to classify the microregions according to similarities in the EIDV. Odds ratio were also calculated in order to evaluate the odds of microregions having a high susceptibility to diseases and high vulnerability given the drought risk. Results showed that the Pau dos Ferros, Seridó Ocidental, Seridó Oriental, and Umarizal microregions were the most vulnerable, while Natal and Litoral Sul were the least vulnerable. Regarding the dimensions of vulnerability, we observed that almost the entire RN state exhibited high drought risk. Pau dos Ferros and Umarizal had the highest susceptibility and Litoral Nordeste presented the worst adaptive capacity to the effects of drought on health. The EIDV revealed that the population of the RN state needs improvements in living conditions and health, since socioeconomic status is one of the factors that most influence the vulnerability of microregions, which in turn is aggravated by drought risk.

When Land Is Under Pressure Health Is Under Stress

The land provides vital resources to support life on Earth. Land ecosystems services have social, cultural, and spiritual benefits and promote human health and well-being. However, human activities, particularly ongoing unsustainable land practices, are negatively impacting ecosystems through desertification, land degradation and drought (DLDD). This article highlights the pressures and impacts of DLDD on human health through exposure pathways, including water security and safety; sanitation and hygiene; food security and safety; air quality; and soil quality. We describe the impacts on 19 health outcomes in three groups: non-communicable diseases; injuries; and infections, parasitic and nutritional diseases. The magnitude of these health impacts is mediated by social, economic, and health system-related factors. We propose actions for the health sector to respond to the DLDD challenges.

Public Health Policy Actions to Address Health Issues Associated with Drought in a Changing Climate

Over the last century, droughts have caused more deaths internationally than any other weather- or climate-related disaster. Like other natural disasters, droughts cause significant changes in the environment that can lead to negative health outcomes. As droughts are becoming more frequent and intense with climate change, public health systems need to address impacts associated with these events. Partnering with federal and local entities, we evaluated the state of knowledge of drought and health in the United States through a National Drought and Public Health Summit and a series of subsequent regional workshops. The intended outcome was to develop public health strategies for implementing activities to better support and prepare public health systems for future droughts. The information gathered from this work identified multiple policy and law options to address the public health issues associated with drought. These policy recommendations include the use of public health emergency declarations for drought events, increased usage of preparedness evaluations for drought emergencies, and engagement of drought and climate experts in state and local risk assessments. As drought events are projected to increase in frequency and magnitude with climate change, taking policy action now will help decrease the health impacts of drought and save lives.

Health consequences of drought in the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region: hotspot areas and needed actions

BACKGROUND

Over the past four decades, drought episodes in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) of the of the World Health Organization (WHO) have gradually become more widespread, prolonged and frequent. We aimed to map hotspot countries and identified key strategic actions for health consequences.

METHODS

We reviewed scientific literature and WHO EMR documentation on trends and patterns of the drought health consequences from 1990 through 2019. Extensive communication was also carried out with EMR WHO country offices to retrieve information on ongoing initiatives to face health consequences due to drought. An index score was developed to categorize countries according vulnerability factors towards drought.

RESULTS

A series of complex health consequences are due to drought in EMR, including malnutrition, vector-borne diseases, and water-borne diseases. The index score indicated how Afghanistan, Yemen and Somalia are "hotspots" due to poor population health status and access to basic sanitation as well as other elements such as food insecurity, displacement and conflicts/political instability. WHO country offices effort is towards enhancing access to water and sanitation and essential healthcare services including immunization and psychological support, strengthening disease surveillance and response, and risk communication.

CONCLUSIONS

Drought-related health effects in the WHO EMR represent a public health emergency. Strengthening mitigation activities and additional tailored efforts are urgently needed to overcome context-specific gaps and weaknesses, with specific focus on financing, accountability and enhanced data availability.

Extremes in water availability and suicide: Evidence from a nationally representative sample of rural Indian adults

BACKGROUND

Extremes in water availability, either exceptionally wet or dry conditions, can damage crops and may detrimentally affect the livelihood and well-being of people engaged in agriculture. We estimated the effect of water availability on suicide in rural India, a context where the majority of households are dependent upon agriculture.

METHODS

We used data from a nationally representative sample of 8.5 million people who were monitored for causes of death from 2001 to 2013. Water availability was measured with high-resolution precipitation and temperature data (i.e., the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index). We used a fixed effects approach that modeled changes in water availability within districts (n = 569) over time (n = 13 years) to estimate the impact on suicide deaths. We restricted our analysis to rural areas and to deaths occurring during the growing season (June-March) among adults aged 15 or older, and controlled for sex, age, region, and year. We used Poisson regression with standard errors clustered at the district level and total deaths as the offset.

RESULTS

There were 9456 suicides and 249,786 total deaths in our study population between 2001 and 2013. Compared to normal growing seasons, the percent of deaths due to suicide increased by 18.7% during extremely wet growing seasons (95% CI: 6.2, 31.2) and by 3.6% during extremely dry growing seasons (95% CI: -17.9, 25.0). We found that effects varied by age.

CONCLUSIONS

We found extremes is water availability associated with an increase in suicide. Abnormally wet growing conditions may play an important, yet overlooked, role in suicide among rural Indian adults.

Water and mental health

There is a well‐established connection among water quality, sanitation, and physical health. The potentially important relationship between water and mental health is considerably less studied. Reviewing evidence from ethnography, geography, folklore, indigenous studies, rural medicine, drought research, and large‐n statistical studies, we argue there is now good theoretical rationale and growing evidence of water insecurity as a possible driver of mental ill‐health. Furthermore, some nascent evidence suggests that emotionally meaningful interactions with water might improve mental health outcomes. Leveraging these literatures, we address the many ways in which mental health outcomes are conceptualized and operationalized in water research, including as emotional distress, perceived stress, depressive symptoms, anxiety symptoms, somatic symptoms, and quality of life. We outline arguments supporting seven possible (and likely interlocking) mechanisms that could explain such a relationship: (a) material deprivation and related uncertainty, (b) shame of social failure, (c) worry about health threats, (d) loss of connections to people and places, (e) frustration around opportunity losses and restricted autonomy, (f) interpersonal conflict and intimate partner violence, and (g) institutional injustice or unfairness. However, we explain that as most existing studies are ethnographic, qualitative, or cross‐sectional, a causal relationship between water and mental ill‐health is yet to be confirmed empirically. More research on this topic is needed, particularly given that poorly understood connections may create barriers to achieving Sustainable Development Goals 3 (health) and 6 (water). We further suggest that tracking mental health indicators may provide unique and as‐yet underappreciated insights into the efficacy of water projects and other development interventions.

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Quantification of the Effects of Droughts on Daily Mortality in Spain at Different Timescales at Regional and National Levels: A Meta-Analysis

A performance assessment of two different indices (the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)) for monitoring short-term and short–medium-term drought impacts on daily specific-cause mortality in Spain was conducted. To achieve a comprehensive, nationwide view, a meta-analysis was performed using a combination of provincial relative risks (RRs). Moreover, the subdivisions of Spain based on administrative, climatic, and demographic criteria to obtain the measures of combined risks were also taken into account. The results of the SPEI and SPI calculated at the same timescale were similar. Both showed that longer drought events produced greater RR values, for respiratory mortality. However, at the local administrative level, Galicia, Castilla-y-Leon, and Extremadura showed the greatest risk of daily mortality associated with drought episodes, with Andalucía, País Vasco, and other communities being notably impacted. Based on climatic regionalization, Northwest, Central, and Southern Spain were the regions most affected by different drought conditions for all analyzed causes of daily mortality, while the Mediterranean coastal region was less affected. Demographically, the regions with the highest proportion of people aged 65 years of age and over reflected the greatest risk of daily natural, circulatory, and respiratory mortality associated with drought episodes.

Short-term effects of drought on daily mortality in Spain from 2000 to 2009

Spain is a country of southern Europe that is prone to drought, and it is likely that this type of hydrological extreme will become substantially more frequent and intense in the 21st century, which could lead to greater health risks if adequate adaptive measures are not taken. For the first time, we calculated the relative risks (RRs) of daily natural (ICD10: A00-R99), circulatory (ICD10: I00-I99), and respiratory (ICD: J00-J99) mortality associated with drought events in each province of Spain from 2000 to 2009. For this purpose, we compared the performance of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation- Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) obtained at 1 month of accumulation (denoted as SPI-1/SPEI-1) to estimate the short-term risks of droughts on daily mortality using generalised linear models. Attributable risks were calculated from the RR data. The main findings of this study revealed statistically significant associations between the different causes of daily mortality and drought events for the different provinces of Spain, and clear spatial heterogeneity was observed across the country. Western Spain (northwest to southwest) was the region most affected, in contrast to northern and eastern Spain, and daily respiratory mortality was the group most strongly linked to the incidence of drought conditions. Moreover, for a considerable number of provinces, the effect of SPI-1 and SPEI-1 largely reflected the impact of atmospheric pollution and/or heatwaves; however, for other regions, the effect of drought conditions on daily mortality remained when these different climatic events were controlled in Poisson models. When the performances of the SPEI and SPI were compared to identify and estimate the risks of drought on daily mortality, the results were very similar, although there were slight differences in the specific causes of daily mortality.

Effects of droughts on health: Diagnosis, repercussion, and adaptation in vulnerable regions under climate change. Challenges for future research

There is little doubt about the effects of drought events on human health in the present climate. Projections of climate change indicate an increase in the occurrence and severity of droughts in the 21st century in a number of regions, thus it is likely that these types of hydrological extremes could have more of an impact if appropriate adaptation measures are not taken. The majority of studies on the effects of drought are focused on meteorological, agricultural, or hydrological contexts, but there are rather fewer assessments of the impacts of droughts on health. In particular, there have been hardly any attempts to compare different drought indices in order to identify and quantify the impacts of drought on health systems. In addition, rather better knowledge is needed on the mechanisms of vulnerability involved. In this paper, we attempt to describe the complexity of drought phenomena and the difficulty involved in quantifying the health risks linked to their occurrence. From an international perspective, we provide a brief review of the harmful effects of droughts on health in the context of climate change, as well as the vulnerability factors related to droughts. We make an assessment of aspects that have not yet been investigated, or which require further attention to be devoted to this topic. The principal aim of this paper is therefore to draw attention to the need to consider closely the relationship between drought indices and human health, in order to achieve a more fundamental understanding, and to propose specific courses or lines of action for future years, which could eventually be of use to healthcare providers and services.

Effects on daily mortality of droughts in Galicia (NW Spain) from 1983 to 2013

Climate change scenarios indicate an increase in the intensity and frequency of droughts in several regions of the world in the 21st century, especially in Southern Europe, highlighting the threat to global health. For the first time, a time-series diagnostic study has been conducted regarding the impact of droughts in Galicia, a region in north-western Spain, on daily natural-cause mortality, daily circulatory-cause mortality, and daily respiratory-cause mortality, from 1983 to 2013. We analysed the drought periods over the area of interest using the daily Standardized Evapotranspiration-Precipitation Index (SPEI) and the daily Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), obtained at various timescales (1, 3, 6, 9 months), to identify and classify the intensity of drought and non-drought periods. Generalized linear models with the Poisson regression link were used to calculate the Relative Risks (RRs) of different causes of mortality, and the percentage of Attributable Risk Mortality (%AR) was calculated based on RRs data. According to our findings, there were statistically significant (p < 0.05) associations between drought periods, measured by both the daily SPEI and SPI, and daily mortality in all provinces of Galicia (except Pontevedra) for different timescales. Furthermore, drought periods had a greater influence on daily mortality in the interior provinces of Galicia than in the coastal regions, with Lugo being the most affected. In short term, the effect of droughts (along with heatwaves) on daily mortality was observed in interior regions and was mainly explained by atmospheric pollution effect throughout 2000 to 2009 period in Ourense, being respiratory causes of mortality the group most strongly associated. The fact that droughts are likely to become increasingly frequent and intense in the context of climate change and the lack of studies that have considered the impact of droughts on specific causes of mortality make this type of analysis necessary.

Key Climate Oscillation Factors Controlling Precipitation Variability during the Dry Season in Eastern Northeast Brazil: Study Case of Mundaú and Paraíba Do Meio River Basins

In Brazil, the northeastern region (NEB) is considered one of the most vulnerable areas of the country in terms of precipitation variability due to frequent drought episodes during the rainy season. Differently from the Northern NEB (NNEB), where dry season is consistently dry, the Eastern NEB (ENEB) exhibits a high interannual variability of precipitation during the dry season, including years exceeding 400 mm. This work aims at understanding key large-scale climate factors that modulate the high pluviometric variability of ENEB during the dry season. Multivariate statistical techniques were applied to identify the time-frequency relationship between precipitation variability and global climate phenomena. The results suggested that hydrological extreme events during the dry season became more frequent after the 1990s. Moreover, our findings also indicated a relationship, at multiannual time scales, between the state of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) and precipitation variability during the dry season. This additional knowledge may contribute to the formation of new perspectives of drought management, leading support to the development of a long-term drought forecasting framework, as well as to the improvement of the water resources management of the region.

Drought in the Semiarid Region of Brazil: Exposure, Vulnerabilities and Health Impacts from the Perspectives of Local Actors

INTRODUCTION

The objective of this study was to understand and assess the perception of communities, organized civil society, health professionals, and decision-makers of several governmental institutions, regarding vulnerabilities and health impacts in drought prone municipalities of Brazil.

METHODS

This study was carried out through a qualitative investigation in eight municipalities in the Brazilian Semiarid region. Data collection was done through semi-structure and structure interviews, and discussion with local actors, which included communities groups, health professionals, governmental managers and organized civil society.

RESULTS

The results point to the local actors' concerns and to the fragility of the health sector in the planning of integrated actions directed towards risks and impacts associated with drought conditions on human health.

DISCUSSION

The lack of a specific knowledge contributes to making invisible the process that determines the impacts of drought on health, leading to an acceptance of drought in those municipalities, reducing the capacity of the health system to respond to droughts.

KEYWORDS

drought, vulnerability, risks, health, perception, Brazilian Semiarid, resilience.

Impact of desertification and land degradation on Colombian children

OBJECTIVES

Desertification affected more than 24% of Colombia's land mass in 2012. The study aims to establish the singular impact of desertification on under-five mortality in Colombia.

METHODS

Descriptive statistics and multivariate logit regressions are applied to the population of live births and under-five deaths in Colombia 2008-2011.

RESULTS

Children have a higher probability to die in rural communities and among mothers with low education who also have inferior health insurance. Controlling for those, desertification below about 50% of the land, lowers child mortality and increases it after that percentage. The impact of extraction of hydrocarbons is 12.45, metals 5.73 and others 4.91 times higher in municipalities with more than 50% of desertification territory. Rural areas with high desertification have 2.25 times higher risk of mortality due to malnutrition.

CONCLUSIONS

In the short term, when mines have less or no effect on desertification, living conditions may improve and reduce child mortality. In the long term, however, as desertification intensifies affecting the ecosystem, child mortality increases. More research is needed, and policy formulated accordingly.

Management of health sector actions in drought situations

Water is essential for the socio-economic development of a region and also for the survival of human beings. Water scarcity has direct and indirect impacts on the environment, the economy and human health. It can change the profile of morbidity and mortality of diseases, as well as having an impact on the supply of services that are essential public to the quality of life. This study aims to contextualize the occurrence of drought in Brazil, its effects on human health, as well as actions to be developed by the health sector to reduce the risk to those living in affected areas, with an emphasis on the monitoring of the quality of drinking water. This is a descriptive, qualitative study with a documental basis. The documents that were researched were related to initiatives by the Health Surveillance Secretariat of the Ministry of Health up until 2014. It is necessary to strengthen the performance capacity of the Unified Health System (SUS) in order to develop timely responses to reduce the risk to public health.

Indicators to measure risk of disaster associated with drought: Implications for the health sector

INTRODUCTION

Brazil has a large semiarid region, which covers part of 9 states, over 20% of the 5565 municipalities in the country and at 22.5 million persons, 12% of the country's population. This region experiences recurrent and extended droughts and is characterized by low economic development, scarcity of natural resources including water, and difficult agricultural and livestock production. Local governments and communities need easily obtainable tools to aid their decision making process in managing risks associated with drought.

METHODS

To inform decision-making at the level of municipalities, we investigated factors contributing to the health risks of drought. We used education and poverty indicators to measure vulnerability, number of drought damage evaluations and historical drought occurrences as indicators of hazard, and access to water as an indicator of exposure, to derive a drought disaster risk index.

RESULTS

Indicators such as access to piped water, illiteracy and poverty show marked differences in most states and, in nearly all states, the living conditions of communities in the semiarid region are worse than in the rest of each state. There are municipalities at high drought disaster risk in every state and there are a larger number of municipalities at higher risks from the center to the north of the semiarid region.

CONCLUSIONS

Understanding local hazards, exposures and vulnerabilities provides the means to understand local communities' risks and develop interventions to reduce them. In addition, communities in these regions need to be empowered to add their traditional knowledge to scientific tools, and to identify the actions most relevant to their needs and realities.

Measuring the invisible: Analysis of the Sustainable Development Goals in relation to populations exposed to drought

Brazil, together with all the member countries of the United Nations, is in a process of adoption of a group of Sustainable Development Goals, including targets and indicators. This article considers the implications of these goals and their proposed targets, for the Semi-Arid region of Brazil. This region has recurring droughts which may worsen with climate change, further weakening the situation of access of water for human consumption in sufficient quantity and quality, and as a result, the health conditions of the exposed populations. This study identifies the relationship between drought and health, in an effort to measure progress in this region (1,135 municipalities), comparing relevant indicators with the other 4,430 municipalities in Brazil, based on census data from 1991, 2000 and 2010. Important inequalities between the municipalities of this region and the municipalities of the rest of Brazil are identified, and discussed in the context of what is necessary for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals in the Semi-arid Region, principally in relation to the measures for adaptation to achieve universal and equitable access to drinking water.

Desastres relacionados à seca e saúde coletiva – uma revisão da literatura científica

Resumo No Brasil, a história das secas é marcada por seguidas tragédias sociais e sanitárias, com estimativas de 3 milhões de óbitos entre o início do século XIX e o final do século XX e o registro de quase 32 mil eventos e mais de 96 milhões de afetados entre 1991 e 2010. Apesar de no Brasil a seca ser um desastre histórico, não encontramos, desde a expedição científica de Arthur Neiva e Belisário Penna em 1912 nas zonas flageladas pela seca, muitas pesquisas sobre a relação seca e saúde no Brasil. O objetivo deste trabalho é apresentar uma revisão dos artigos científicos sobre a relação seca e saúde coletiva. Foram utilizadas as bases de dados PubMed, Portal Preparação e Respostas a Desastres da BVS e Portal de Periódicos da Capes, utilizando-se os descritores drought and health no título e resumo, selecionando-se somente artigos em inglês e espanhol com relação direta com os temas em saúde. Dentre os efeitos sobre a saúde encontrados, destacam-se os relacionados à desnutrição e deficiências nutricionais, saúde mental, qualidade das águas e do ar, além do comprometimento da qualidade e do acesso aos serviços de saúde. Considerando-se as tendências de episódios de seca mais intensos e frequentes e de escassez de água até 2030, torna-se urgente ampliar as pesquisas sobre o tema e revisões da literatura.

Surtos de diarreia na região Nordeste do Brasil em 2013, segundo a mídia e sistemas de informação de saúde – Vigilância de situações climáticas de risco e emergências em saúde

Resumo Este trabalho tem como objetivo analisar as informações sobre surtos de diarreia no Nordeste do Brasil ocorridos no ano de 2013, veiculadas pela mídia eletrônica e pelos dados obtidos por sistemas de informação de saúde. Foram identificadas 33 notícias com cunho informativo sobre os surtos, algumas contendo menções sobre as causas e os fatores agravantes dos surtos de diarreia. A análise da distribuição espacial e temporal de notícias, internações e óbitos revelou que mais de 100 mil pessoas foram acometidas e, de acordo com as notícias analisadas, os estados mais atingidos foram Alagoas e Pernambuco, com maior extensão nos meses de maio a julho. O uso de fontes alternativas de água, como cacimbas, poços, caminhões-pipa e reservatórios domésticos foram apontados como as causas mais imediatas destes surtos. No entanto, outros fatores subjacentes como a precariedade estrutural dos sistemas de abastecimento de água na região do semiárido, as condições excepcionais de seca, considerada a pior dos últimos 60 anos, bem como a capacidade do setor saúde para atender um grande volume de casos, devem ser considerados para recuperar o contexto em que estes surtos são produzidos.

Climate Change, Drought and Human Health in Canada

Droughts have been recorded all across Canada and have had significant impacts on individuals and communities. With climate change, projections suggest an increasing risk of drought in Canada, particularly in the south and interior. However, there has been little research on the impacts of drought on human health and the implications of a changing climate. A review of the Canadian, U.S. and international literature relevant to the Canadian context was conducted to better define these impacts and adaptations available to protect health. Drought can impact respiratory health, mental health, illnesses related to exposure to toxins, food/water security, rates of injury and infectious diseases (including food-, water- and vector-borne diseases). A range of direct and indirect adaptation (e.g., agricultural adaptation) options exist to cope with drought. Many have already been employed by public health officials, such as communicable disease monitoring and surveillance and public education and outreach. However, gaps exist in our understanding of the impacts of short-term vs. prolonged drought on the health of Canadians, projections of drought and its characteristics at the regional level and the effectiveness of current adaptations. Further research will be critical to inform adaptation planning to reduce future drought-related risks to health.