Classifying Alcohol Control Policies with Respect to Expected Changes in Consumption and Alcohol-Attributable Harm: The Example of Lithuania, 2000-2019

Interrupted Time Series Design and Analyses in Health Policy Assessment

Interrupted time series design is a quasi-experimental study design commonly used to evaluate the impact of a particular intervention (e.g., a health policy implementation) on a specific outcome. Two of the most often recommended analytical approaches to interrupted time series analysis are autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and Generalized Additive Models (GAM). We conducted simulation tests to determine the performance differences between ARIMA and GAM methodology across different policy effect sizes, with or without seasonality, and with or without misspecification of policy variables. We found that ARIMA exhibited more consistent results under certain conditions, such as with different policy effect sizes, with or without seasonality, while GAM were more robust when the model was misspecified. Given these findings, the variation between the models underscores the need for careful model selection and validation in health policy studies.

Weekly pattern of alcohol-attributable male mortality before and after imposing limits on hours of alcohol sale in Lithuania in 2018

AIMS

From 1 January 2018, the number of retail hours for the sale of alcohol was reduced from 14 to 5 hours on Sundays and from 14 to 10 hours on the other days of the week in Lithuania. The significant reduction of hours for the sale of alcohol on Sundays may have affected the distribution of alcohol-attributable deaths during the week. This study aimed to examine the change in the weekly pattern of alcohol-attributable male mortality before and after imposing limits on the hours when alcohol can be sold.

METHODS

Age-standardised male death rates by days of the week were calculated for four groups according to cause of death: alcohol poisoning (X45), all external causes of death (V01-Y98), diseases of the circulatory system (I00-I99) and all other causes of death. We compared age-standardised death rates for two periods: before (2015-2017) and after (2018-2019) the intervention. Mortality and population data were obtained from the Lithuanian Institute of Hygiene and Human Mortality Database.

RESULTS

We found that during 2018-2019, earlier observed peak in age-standardised death rates for external causes of death on Sunday diminished, and this day no longer differed from the weekly average. The same tendency was also observed for the Monday excess mortality due to circulatory diseases.

CONCLUSIONS

The reduction of the hours when alcohol can be sold from the beginning of 2018 was associated with a change in a weekly pattern of alcohol-attributable male mortality. However, more studies are needed to examine the causes of the change in mortality pattern.

Alcohol control policy and alcohol-attributable disease burden in Finland and the Baltic countries: A longitudinal study 1995-2019

INTRODUCTION

Alcohol remains a significant contributor to mortality and morbidity in Finland and the Baltic countries, particularly among men. This study aimed to assess alcohol policy restrictiveness in this region from 1995 to 2019 using a modified version of the Bridging the Gap (BtG-M) policy scale and examine its association with alcohol-related disease burden.

METHODS

The study utilised national laws to score policy restrictiveness (higher BtG-M scores mean stricter policies) and age-standardised rates of disability-adjusted life years (DALY), years of life lost, years lived with disability and deaths per 100,000 from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD). Spearman correlation tests and panel data regression models were applied to assess the association between policy score and burden of disease.

RESULTS

Finland maintained a high BtG-M score, while the Baltic countries experienced recent increases from initially lower scores. Alcohol-related disease burden showed an inverse association with policy changes in these countries. Strongest association was seen between the BtG-M score and DALY rates attributed to injuries. Premature mortality among men constituted the largest proportion of disease burden.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

Despite challenges in accessing and comparing policy data over time, we showed a strong association between alcohol policy and alcohol-related harm in Finland and the Baltic countries. This study is one of the first to use the BtG-M scale to monitor changes in alcohol policies over time and their relationship to alcohol-related harm using GBD methodology. The study highlights the effects of national alcohol policies on levels of alcohol-related harm.

Impact of alcohol control policy on hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke mortality rates in Lithuania: An interrupted time series analysis

Given the causal impact of alcohol use on stroke, alcohol control policies should presumably reduce stroke mortality rates. This study aimed to test the impact of three major Lithuanian alcohol control policies implemented in 2008, 2017 and 2018 on sex- and stroke subtype-specific mortality rates, among individuals 15+ years-old. Joinpoint regression analyses were performed for each sex- and stroke subtype-specific group to identify timepoints corresponding with significant changes in mortality rate trends. To estimate the impact of each policy, interrupted time series analyses using a generalized additive mixed model were performed on monthly sex- and stroke subtype-specific age-standardized mortality rates from January 2001-December 2018. Significant average annual percent decreases were found for all sex- and stroke subtype-specific mortality rate trends. The alcohol control policies were most impactful on ischemic stroke mortality rates among women. The 2008 policy was followed by a positive level change of 4,498 ischemic stroke deaths per 100,000 women and a negative monthly slope change of -0.048 ischemic stroke deaths per 100,000 women. Both the 2017 and 2018 policy enactment timepoints coincided with a significant negative level change for ischemic stroke mortality rates among women, at -0.901 deaths and -1.431 deaths per 100,000 population, respectively. Hemorrhagic stroke mortality among men was not affected by any of the policies, and hemorrhagic stroke mortality among women and ischemic stroke mortality among men were only associated with the 2008 policy. Our study findings suggest that the impact of alcohol control policies on stroke mortality may vary by sex and subtype.

Alcohol policy changes during the first three-months of the COVID-19 pandemic: Development and application of a classification scheme

BACKGROUND

Policy changes in response to the COVID-19 pandemic have impacted on alcohol control. This study describes the development and application of a classification scheme to map alcohol policy changes during the first three-months of the COVID-19 pandemic in five countries and/or subnational jurisdictions.

METHOD

A pre-registered systematic review of policy decisions from March to May 2020, in Australia/New South Wales, Canada/Ontario, Chile, Italy and the United Kingdom. One author extracted the data for each jurisdiction using a country-specific search strategy of government documents. We coded policy changes using an adapted WHO classification scheme, whether the policy was expected to tighten or loosen alcohol control, have mainly immediate or delayed impact on consumption and harm and impact the general population versus specific populations. We present descriptive statistics of policy change.

RESULTS

We developed a classification scheme with four levels. Existing policy options were insufficient to capture policy changes in alcohol availability, thus we added seventeen new sub-categories. We found 114 alcohol control policies introduced across the five jurisdictions, covering five (out of ten) WHO action areas. The majority aimed to change alcohol availability, by regulating the operation of alcohol outlets. All countries introduced closures to on-premise alcohol outlets and, except Chile, allowed off-sales via take away or home delivery. We also observed several pricing policies introducing subsidies to support the alcohol industry. Seventy-four percent of policy changes were expected to tighten alcohol control and 12.3 % to weaken control. Weakening policy changes were mostly related to retail mode switching or expansion (allowing take away or home delivery).

CONCLUSION

Alcohol control policies during the first three months of the COVID-19 pandemic were targeted primarily at alcohol availability and about one tenth might weaken alcohol control. Temporary changes to alcohol retail during the COVID-19 pandemic, if made permanent, could significantly expand alcohol availability.

Exploring Lithuanian social workers' attitudes towards individuals with alcohol usage problems

Aim: Social workers are at the front line of helping individuals experiencing alcohol usage, due to their professional duties, ideology and values that underpin it. In Lithuania, where social work still continues to develop in both practice and education, it is crucial to supplement with relevant information to strengthen social work's response to issues with alcohol usage. Therefore, the aim of this study was to explore social workers' attitudes towards individuals with alcohol usage problems. Methods: In total, 149 Lithuanian social workers completed a web survey that gathered information about education, work experience and workplace, and filled in the Short Alcohol and Alcohol Problems Perception Questionnaire (SAAPPQ) to measure their attitude towards individuals with alcohol usage problems. Results: The social workers showed a positive attitude towards individuals with alcohol usage problems (mean 35.81 [SD 4.8]). Attitude domain analysis revealed Role Legitimacy (91.3% above the midpoint) to reflect the most positive attitudes and Work Satisfaction (24.2% above the midpoint) to reflect the least positive attitudes. Those with master's degrees scored higher on the total SAAPPQ (t = -2.44, p = 0.016) and its subscales Work Satisfaction (t = -2.52, p = 0.013) and Therapeutic Commitment (t = -2.21, p = 0.029). Having 6-13 years of work experience (mean SAAPPQ = 37.02 [SD 5.11]) was associated with a more positive attitude compared to those with less than 5 years of experience (mean SAAPPQ = 34.08 [SD 3.87]). Conclusion: Although social workers understand their professional responsibility to work with individuals with alcohol usage problems, their dedication to work, motivation and task-specific self-esteem are low. The results also support education, as those with master's degrees showed more positive attitudes. This study further encourages support for social workers just beginning their career, who might report lower attitudes towards individuals with alcohol usage problems.

Alcohol-attributable mortality and alcohol control policy in the Baltic Countries and Poland in 2001-2020: an interrupted time-series analysis

BACKGROUND

The Baltic countries-Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia-are characterized by a high rate of fully alcohol-attributable mortality, compared with Poland. Alcohol control policy measures implemented since 2001 in the Baltic countries included a restriction on availability and an increase in excise taxation, among others. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the relationship between alcohol control policy implementation and alcohol-attributable mortality in the Baltic countries and Poland.

METHODS

Alcohol-attributable mortality data for 2001-2020 was defined by codes 100% alcohol-attributable for persons aged 15 years and older in the Baltic countries and Poland. Alcohol control policies implemented between 2001 and 2020 were identified, and their impact on alcohol-attributable mortality was evaluated using an interrupted time-series methodology by employing a generalized additive model.

RESULTS

Alcohol-attributable mortality was significantly higher in the Baltic countries, compared with Poland, for both males and females. In the final reduced model, alcohol control policy significantly reduced male alcohol-attributable mortality by 7.60% in the 12 months post-policy implementation. For females, the alcohol control policy mean-shift effect was higher, resulting in a significant reduction of alcohol-attributable mortality by 10.77% in the 12 months post-policy implementation. The interaction effects of countries and policy tested in the full model were not statistically significant, which indicated that the impact of alcohol control policy on alcohol-attributable mortality did not differ across countries for both males and females.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on the findings of the current study, alcohol control policy in the form of reduced availability and increased taxation was associated with a reduction in alcohol-attributable mortality among both males and females.

Impact of the WHO "best buys" for alcohol policy on consumption and health in the Baltic countries and Poland 2000-2020

Alcohol use is a major risk factor for burden of disease. This narrative review aims to document the effects of major alcohol control policies, in particular taxation increases and availability restrictions in the three Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) between 2000 and 2020. These measures have been successful in curbing alcohol sales, in general without increasing consumption of alcoholic beverages from unrecorded sources; although for more recent changes this may have been partly due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, findings from time-series analyses suggest improved health, measured as reductions in all-cause and alcohol-attributable mortality, as well as narrowing absolute mortality inequalities between lower and higher educated groups. For most outcomes, there were sex differences observed, with alcohol control policies more strongly affecting males. In contrast to this successful path, alcohol control policies were mostly dismantled in the neighbouring country of Poland, resulting in a rising death toll due to liver cirrhosis and other alcohol-attributable deaths. The natural experiment in this region of high-income European countries with high consumption levels highlights the importance of effective alcohol control policies for improving population health.

Changes in attitudes toward alcohol control policies in Lithuania: findings from two representative surveys in 2015 and 2020

Background: A set of evidence-based alcohol control policy measures was adopted in the period 2016-2020 in Lithuania. The present study fills a knowledge gap on how changes in alcohol control policy are associated with attitudes toward different alcohol policy measures.Objective: This study aims to explore whether support for key alcohol control policy measures in Lithuania declined following implementation of alcohol control measures.Methods: Data came from the Standard European Alcohol Survey. Two representative surveys with the same questionnaire, were conducted in Lithuania in 2015 (N = 1513, 51.7% female, response rate was 38.9%) and 2020 (N = 1015, 50.6% female, response rate was 38.0%). Multi-stage stratified probability sampling was applied. Surveys were carried out using computer-assisted face-to-face interviews, descriptive statistics and multiple logistic regression analyses was applied. We used a binomial logistic regression analysis and the Pearson chi-square test.Results: There was a significant decline in a proportion of respondents who agreed that the number of alcohol selling places should be kept low (OR: 0.84, p = .032), alcohol prices should be kept high (OR: 0.83, p = .027), and the police should be allowed to randomly check whether the driver is sober (OR: 0.65, p < .001). The proportion of respondents who agree that individuals are responsible enough with their drinking significantly declined (OR: 0.76, p = .003).Conclusion: Support for restrictions on alcohol-selling points, increase in alcohol price, and random alcohol testing of drivers declined following the adoption of new alcohol control policy measures. Our findings might be beneficial for policy-makers planning alcohol control policies and information campaigns.

Alcohol control policies reduce all-cause mortality in Baltic Countries and Poland between 2001 and 2020

Alcohol consumption in the Baltic countries and Poland is among the highest globally, causing high all-cause mortality rates. Contrary to Poland, the Baltic countries have adopted many alcohol control policies, including the World Health Organization (WHO) "best buys". The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of these policies, which were implemented between 2001 and 2020, on all-cause mortality. Monthly mortality data for men and women aged 20+ years of age in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland were analysed for 2001 to 2020. A total of 19 alcohol control policies, fulfilling an a-priori defined definition, were implemented between 2001 and 2020 in the countries of interest, and 18 of them could be tested. Interrupted time-series analyses were conducted by employing a generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) for men and women separately. The age-standardized all-cause mortality rate was lowest in Poland and highest in Latvia and had decreased in all countries over the time period. Taxation increases and availability restrictions had short-term effects in all countries, on average reducing the age-standardized all-cause mortality rate among men significantly (a reduction of 2.31% (95% CI 0.71%, 3.93%; p = 0.0045)). All-cause mortality rates among women were not significantly reduced (a reduction of 1.09% (95% CI - 0.02%, 2.20%; p = 0.0554)). In conclusion, the alcohol control policies implemented between 2001 and 2020 reduced all-cause mortality among men 20+ years of age in Baltic countries and Poland, and thus, the practice should be continued.

Evaluating the Impact of Alcohol Policy on Suicide Mortality: A Sex-Specific Time-Series Analysis for Lithuania

OBJECTIVE

It is reasonable to believe that the alcohol policy environment can impact the suicide mortality rates in a given country, considering the well-known link between alcohol use and death by suicide. The current literature, albeit limited, suggests that an increase in alcohol taxation may result in a decrease in deaths by suicide and that the effect is sex-specific. Therefore, the objective of the current study was to test the impact of three alcohol control policy enactments (in 2008, 2017 and 2018) on suicide mortality among adults 25-74 years of age in Lithuania, by sex.

METHODS

To estimate the unique impact of three alcohol control policies, we conducted interrupted time-series analyses by employing a generalized additive mixed model on monthly sex-specific age-standardized suicide mortality rates from January 2001 to December 2018.

RESULTS

Analyses showed a significant impact of the 2017 (p = 0.016) alcohol control policy on suicide mortality for men only. Specifically, we estimated that in the year following the 2017 policy enactment, approximately 57 (95% CI: 9-107) deaths by suicide were prevented among men, 25-74 years of age. The three policy enactments tested were not found to significantly impact the suicide mortality rate among women.

CONCLUSION

Alcohol control policies involving pricing, which result in a notable decrease in alcohol affordability, could be a cost-effective indirect suicide prevention mechanism in not only countries of the former Soviet Union, but in other high-income countries with a comparable health care system to that in Lithuania. HIGHLIGHTSIncreasing excise tax on alcohol was found to have a sex-specific impact on suicide mortalityThe 2017 alcohol policy prevented 57 deaths by suicide among men, 25-74 years of age, in the following yearAlcohol pricing policies may be a cost-effective indirect suicide prevention mechanism.

Classifying alcohol control policies enacted between 2000 and 2020 in Poland and the Baltic countries to model potential impact

AIMS

The study's aim is to identify and classify the most important alcohol control policies in the Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) and Poland between 2000 and 2020.

METHODS

Policy analysis of Baltic countries and Poland, predicting potential policy impact on alcohol consumption, all-cause mortality and alcohol-attributable hospitalizations was discussed.

RESULTS

All Baltic countries implemented stringent availability restrictions on off-premises trading hours and different degrees of taxation increases to reduce the affordability of alcoholic beverages, as well as various degrees of bans on alcohol marketing. In contrast, Poland implemented few excise taxation increases or availability restrictions and, in fact, reduced stipulations on prior marketing bans.

CONCLUSIONS

This classification of alcohol control policies in the Baltic countries and Poland provides a basis for future modeling of the impact of implementing effective alcohol control policies (Baltic countries), as well as the effects of loosening such policies (Poland).

The impact of alcohol taxation increase on all-cause mortality inequalities in Lithuania: an interrupted time series analysis

BACKGROUND

Taxation increases which reduce the affordability of alcohol are expected to reduce mortality inequalities. A recent taxation increase in Lithuania offers the unique possibility to test this hypothesis.

METHODS

Census-linked mortality data between 2011 and 2019 were used to calculate monthly sex- and education-stratified age-standardized mortality rates for the population aged 40 to 70 years. As primary outcome, we analysed the difference in age-standardized all-cause mortality rates between the population of lowest versus highest educational achievement. The impact of the 2017 taxation increase was evaluated using interrupted time series analyses. To identify whether changes in alcohol use can explain the observed effects on all-cause mortality, the education-based mortality differences were then decomposed into n = 16 cause-of-death groupings.

RESULTS

Between 2012 and 2019, education-based all-cause mortality inequalities in Lithuania declined by 18% among men and by 14% among women. Following the alcohol taxation increase, we found a pronounced yet temporary reduction of mortality inequalities among Lithuanian men (- 13%). Subsequent decomposition analyses suggest that the reduction in mortality inequalities between lower and higher educated men was mainly driven by narrowing mortality differences in injuries and infectious diseases.

CONCLUSIONS

A marked increase in alcohol excise taxation was associated with a decrease in mortality inequalities among Lithuanian men. More pronounced reductions in deaths from injuries and infectious diseases among lower as compared to higher educated groups could be the result of differential changes in alcohol use in these populations.

Do alcohol control policies have the predicted effects on consumption? An analysis of the Baltic countries and Poland 2000-2020

BACKGROUND

Many population-based alcohol control policies are postulated to work via changes in adult alcohol per capita consumption (APC). However, since APC is usually assessed on a yearly basis, often there are not enough data to conduct interrupted time-series or other controlled analyses. The current dataset, with 21 years of observation from four countries (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland), had sufficient power to test for average effects and potential interactions of the World Health Organization's (WHO) three "best buys" for alcohol control: taxation increases leading to a decrease in affordability; reduced availability (via a decrease in opening hours of at least 20 %); and advertising and marketing restrictions. We postulated that the former two would have immediate effects, while the latter would have mid- to long-term effects.

METHODS

Linear regression analysis.

RESULTS

Taxation increases and availability reductions in all countries were associated with an average reduction in APC of 0.83 litres (ℓ) of pure alcohol per year (95 % confidence interval: -1.21 ℓ, -0.41 ℓ) in the same year, with no significant differences between countries. Restrictions on advertising and/or marketing had no significant immediate associations with APC (average effect 0.04 ℓ per year; 95 % confidence interval: -0.65 ℓ, 0.73 ℓ). Several sensitivity analyses corroborated these main results.

CONCLUSIONS

The WHO "best buy" alcohol control policies of taxation increases and availability restrictions worked as postulated in these four northeastern European Union countries.

Global, regional, and national burden of cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases due to alcohol use, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease study 2019

BACKGROUND

To date, no study has evaluated trends in the burden of alcohol-induced cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) 2019 study. Herein, we report on the global burden of alcohol-induced cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases in terms of age, sex, and sociodemographic index (SDI) from 1990 to 2019, based on analysis of GBD 2019 data.

METHODS

The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to determine the trends in the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for alcohol-induced cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, the global age-standardized incidence rate showed an upward trend (EAPC = 0.10), whereas the global age-standardized mortality rate and DALYs showed a downward trend (EAPC = - 0.88 and - 0.89, respectively). Low-(187.08 in 2019) and low-middle (178.11 in 2019)SDI regions had much higher age-standardized DALYs. Eastern Europe saw the largest increases in the age-standardized mortality rate and DALYs. Lithuania had the largest increase in mortalities caused by alcohol-induced cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases(EAPC = 4.61). The age-standardized mortality rates and DALYs were higher in men than in women.

CONCLUSION

From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate of alcohol-induced cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases increased globally; however, both the age-standardized mortality rate and DALYs caused by alcohol-induced cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases showed decreasing trends. Future studies should devise preventive strategies for low and low-middle SDI regions, Eastern Europe, Lithuania, and other high-risk regions.

Trends in Adolescent Substance Use: Analysis of HBSC Data for Four Eastern European Countries, 1994-2018

The aim of the study was to analyze the trends of adolescent substance use in four eastern European countries over the time period from 1994 to 2018. The four countries in focus were selected based on their shared historical backgrounds and major economic and social transformations experienced.

METHODS

Two decades (1993/1994-2017/2018) of repeated cross-sectional data from the Estonian, Latvian, Lithuanian, and Polish Health Behaviour in School-aged Children survey were used. Data comprised 42,169 school children 15 years of age (9th grade). The following categories of substance use were included: regular alcohol consumption and drunkenness, tobacco smoking, electronic cigarette smoking, and cannabis use. Trends in substance use over time were tested using Jonckheere's trend test.

RESULTS

Prevalence of substance use among adolescents over time revealed that the Baltic states and Poland have faced relatively different temporal trends. In the Baltic states, there was a general increase during the period of 1994-2002, which was followed by a period of peaking or stability between 2002-2010, and then decreasing trends of these risky behaviors from 2010 onwards. In Poland, the same period had less consistent patterns, with decreasing trends starting much earlier on. The prevalence of cannabis use, which had been measured since 2006, had its own unique pattern with many fluctuations within and between countries.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings on the prevalence of substance use among adolescents from 1994 to 2018 revealed that the Baltic states and Poland have faced relatively different temporal trends. These countries might be facing new public health challenges in a near future, e.g., use of electronic cigarettes and cannabis use among adolescents.

Estimating effects of health policy interventions using interrupted time-series analyses: a simulation study

BACKGROUND

A classic methodology used in evaluating the impact of health policy interventions is interrupted time-series (ITS) analysis, applying a quasi-experimental design that uses both pre- and post-policy data without randomization. In this paper, we took a simulation-based approach to estimating intervention effects under different assumptions.

METHODS

Each of the simulated mortality rates contained a linear time trend, seasonality, autoregressive, and moving-average terms. The simulations of the policy effects involved three scenarios: 1) immediate-level change only, 2) immediate-level and slope change, and 3) lagged-level and slope change. The estimated effects and biases of these effects were examined via three matched generalized additive mixed models, each of which used two different approaches: 1) effects based on estimated coefficients (estimated approach), and 2) effects based on predictions from models (predicted approach). The robustness of these two approaches was further investigated assuming misspecification of the models.

RESULTS

When one simulated dataset was analyzed with the matched model, the two analytical approaches produced similar estimates. However, when the models were misspecified, the number of deaths prevented, estimated using the predicted vs. estimated approaches, were very different, with the predicted approach yielding estimates closer to the real effect. The discrepancy was larger when the policy was applied early in the time-series.

CONCLUSION

Even when the sample size appears to be large enough, one should still be cautious when conducting ITS analyses, since the power also depends on when in the series the intervention occurs. In addition, the intervention lagged effect needs to be fully considered at the study design stage (i.e., when developing the models).

The Impact of Alcohol Control Policy on Pneumonia Mortality in Lithuania: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis

Despite the growing body of evidence suggesting that alcohol consumption is associated with an increased risk of and poorer treatment outcomes from pneumonia, little is known about the association between alcohol control policy and pneumonia mortality. As such, this study aimed to assess the impact of three alcohol control policies legislated in 2008, 2017 and 2018 in Lithuania on sex-specific pneumonia mortality rates among individuals 15+ years of age. An interrupted time-series analysis using a generalised additive mixed model was performed for each policy. Of the three policies, only the 2008 policy resulted in a significant slope change (i.e. decline) in pneumonia mortality rates among males; no significant slope change was observed among females. The low R 2 values for all sex-specific models suggest that other external factors are likely also influencing the sex-specific pneumonia mortality rates in Lithuania. Overall, the findings from this study suggest alcohol control policy's targeting affordability may be an effective way to reduce pneumonia mortality rates, among males in particular. However, further research is needed to fully explore their impact.

Can alcohol control policies reduce cirrhosis mortality? An interrupted time-series analysis in Lithuania

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The relationship between alcohol consumption and cirrhosis is well established. Policies that can influence population-level use of alcohol should, in turn, impact cirrhosis. We examined the effect of population-level alcohol control policies on cirrhosis mortality rates in Lithuania - a high-income European Union country with high levels of alcohol consumption.

METHODS

Age-standardized, monthly liver mortality data (deaths per 100,000 adults, aged 15+) from Lithuania were analysed from 2001 to 2018 (n = 216 months) while controlling for economic confounders (gross domestic product and inflation). An interrupted time-series analysis was conducted to estimate the effect of three alcohol control policies implemented in 2008, 2017 and 2018 and the number of cirrhosis deaths averted.

RESULTS

There was a significant effect of the 2008 (P < .0001) and 2017 (P = .0003) alcohol control policies but a null effect of the 2018 policy (P = .40). Following the 2008 policy, the cirrhosis mortality rate dropped from 4.93 to 3.41 (95% CI: 3.02-3.80) deaths per 100,000 adults, which equated to 493 deaths averted. Further, we found that following the 2017 policy, the mortality rate dropped from 2.85 to 2.01 (95% CI: 1.50-2.52) deaths per 100,000 adults, corresponding to 245 deaths averted.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings support the hypothesis that alcohol control policies can have a significant, immediate effect on cirrhosis mortality. These policy measures are cost-effective and aid in reducing the burden of liver disease.

Predicting the Impact of Alcohol Taxation Increases on Mortality-A Comparison of Different Estimation Techniques

AIMS

To examine how standard analytical approaches to model mortality outcomes of alcohol use compare to the true results using the impact of the March 2017 alcohol taxation increase in Lithuania on all-cause mortality as an example.

METHODS

Four methodologies were used: two direct methodologies: (a) interrupted time-series on mortality and (b) comparing predictions based on time-series modeling with the real number of deaths for the year following the implementation of the tax increase; and two indirect methodologies: (c) combining a regression-based estimate for the impact of taxation on alcohol consumption with attributable-fraction methodology and (d) using price elasticities from meta-analyses to estimate the impact on alcohol consumption before applying attributable-fraction methodology.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

While all methodologies estimated reductions in all-cause mortality, especially for men, there was substantial variability in the level of mortality reductions predicted. The indirect methodologies had lower predictions as the meta-analyses on elasticities and risk relations seem to underestimate the true values for Lithuania. Directly estimated effects of taxation based on the actual mortalities seem to best represent the true reductions in alcohol-attributable mortality. A significant increase in alcohol excise taxation had a marked impact on all-cause mortality in Lithuania.

Alcohol taxation, alcohol consumption and cancers in Lithuania: A case study

Aims

The aim of this contribution was to estimate the impact of the last significant alcohol taxation increase in Lithuania in 2017 on alcohol consumption, incident cancer cases, and cancer mortality, as well as the number of cancer outcomes that could have potentially been averted in 2018 had larger increases in alcohol excise taxation been applied.

Design

Statistical modelling was used to estimate the change in alcohol per capita consumption following the tax increase, and alcohol-attributable fraction methodology was then used to estimate the associated cancer incidence and mortality. Potential increases of current excise duties were modelled in two steps. First, beverage-specific price elasticities of demand were used to predict the associated decreases in consumption and cancer outcomes, and second, the outcomes arising from the actual numbers and the modelled numbers were compared.

Method

Data were taken from the following sources: alcohol consumption data from Statistics Lithuania and the WHO, cancer data from the International Agency of Research on Cancer, and risk relations and elasticities of demand from published meta-analyses.

Results

A total of 15,857 new cancer cases (8,031 in women and 7,826 in men) and 8,534 cancer deaths (3,757 in women and 4,777 in men) were recorded in Lithuania in 2018. Using the attributable fraction methodology, we estimate that 4.8% of 761 of these new cancer cases were attributable to alcohol use (284 in women; 477 in men), as well as 5.5% or 466 cancer deaths (115 in women; 351 in men). With the taxation increase of 2017, 45 new cases and 24 deaths will be averted over the next 10 years. Further taxation increases of 100% could double the number of new cancer cases averted or saved.

Conclusion

In a high-consumption European country like Lithuania, alcohol use is an important and avoidable risk factor for cancer. Taxation is an important measure to reduce the alcohol-attributable cancer burden.

Commercial Advertising of Alcohol: Using Law to Challenge Public Health Regulation

In most countries, the alcohol industry enjoys considerable freedom to market its products. Where government regulation is proposed or enacted, the alcohol industry has often deployed legal arguments and used legal forums to challenge regulation. Governments considering marketing regulation must be cognizant of relevant legal constraints and be prepared to defend their policies against industry legal challenges.

Interrupted time series analyses to assess the impact of alcohol control policy on socioeconomic inequalities in mortality in Lithuania: a study protocol

INTRODUCTION

Alcohol use is a major risk factor for mortality. Previous studies suggest that the alcohol-attributable mortality burden is higher in lower socioeconomic strata. This project will test the hypothesis that the 2017 increase of alcohol excise taxes linked to lower all-cause mortality rates in previous analyses will reduce socioeconomic mortality inequalities.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Data on all causes of deaths will be obtained from Statistics Lithuania. Record linkage will be implemented using personal identifiers combining data from (1) the 2011 whole-population census, (2) death records between 1 March 2011 (census date) and 31 December 2019, and (3) emigration records, for individuals aged 40-70 years. The analyses will be performed separately for all-cause and for alcohol-attributable deaths. Monthly age-standardised mortality rates will be calculated by sex, education and three measures of socioeconomic status (SES). Inequalities in mortality will be assessed using absolute and relative indicators between low and high SES groups. We will perform interrupted time series analyses, and test the impact of the 2017 rise in alcohol excise taxation using generalised additive mixed models. In these models, we will control for secular trends for economic development.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This work is part of project grant 1R01AA028224-01 by the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism. It has been granted research ethics approval 050/2020 by Centre for Addiction and Mental Health Research Ethics Board on 17 April 2020, renewed on 30 March 2021. The time series of mortality inequalities as well as the statistical code will be made publicly available, allowing other researchers to adapt the proposed method to other jurisdictions.

The Impact of Increasing the Minimum Legal Drinking Age from 18 to 20 Years in Lithuania on All-Cause Mortality in Young Adults-An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis

AIMS

To determine the effect of an alcohol policy change, which increased the minimum legal drinking age (MLDA) from 18 years of age to 20 years of age on all-cause mortality rates in young adults (18-19 years old) in Lithuania.

METHODS

An interrupted time series analysis was conducted on a dataset from 2001 to 2019 (n = 228 months). The model tested the effects of the MLDA on all-cause mortality rates (deaths per 100,000 individuals) in three age categories (15-17 years old, 18-19 years old, 20-22 years old) in order to control for general mortality trends in young adults, and to isolate the effects of the MLDA from other alcohol control policies. Additional models that included GDP as a covariate and a taxation policy were tested as well.

RESULTS

There was a significant effect of the MLDA on all-cause mortality rates in those 18-19 years old, when modelled alone. Additional analyses controlling for the mortality rate of other age groups showed similar findings. Inclusion of confounding factors (policies on alcohol taxation, GDP) eliminated the effects of MLDA.

CONCLUSIONS

Although there was a notable decline in all-cause mortality rates among young adults in Lithuania, a direct causal impact of MLDA on all-cause mortality rates in young adults was not definitively found.

Cardiovascular diseases mortality and alcohol control policy in Lithuania: exploring a possible link

Background

Lithuania possesses one of the highest alcohol per capita consumption and has previously implemented alcohol control policies to reduce the alcohol-attributable burden. The aim of this study was to investigate Lithuanian cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality rate trends between 2001 and 2018 and to explore a possible link between CVD mortality rate and alcohol control policy implementation.

Methods

Lithuanian population mortality and alcohol consumption data for 2001–2018 were obtained from Statistics Lithuania and The State Register of Death Cases and Their Causes, Institute of Hygiene. Sex-specific CVD mortality rates were directly standardized to the European standard population by five-year age groups and categorized according to the ICD-10 codes for all CVDs (I00-I99), ischemic heart disease (IHD) (I20-I25), cerebrovascular diseases (I60-I69) and alcoholic cardiomyopathy (ACM) (I42.6). Joinpoint regression analyses were performed to identify points of inflection to explore their alignment with five selected alcohol policy enactments.

Results

Overall, the 2001–2018 yearly mortality rates for all CVDs significantly decreased on average by − 1.6% (95% CI -2.0, − 1.2%) among men and − 2.1% (95% CI -2.5, − 1.8%) among women. Yearly changes in all CVDs, IHD, cerebrovascular diseases and ACM mortality rates were insignificant prior to their respective critical year points in 2006, 2005, 2008 and 2007, but significantly decreased afterwards by an average of − 2.4% (95% CI -2.7, − 2.0%), − 1.6% (95% CI -2.1, − 1.1%), − 1.2% (95 CI -1.7, − 0.6%) and − 4.5% (95% CI -7.3, − 1.6%) among men, and by − 2.7% (95% CI -3.0, − 2.3%), − 2.0% (95% CI -2.6, − 1.4%), − 1.8% (95% CI 2.4, − 1.3%) and − 6.6% (95% CI -10.7, − 2.2%) among women, respectively. The changes in the mortality rate trends for all CVDs, IHD, cerebrovascular diseases and especially ACM coincided with alcohol policies enacted on the January 1, 2008, January 1, 2009, April 1, 2014 and March 1, 2017.

Conclusions

Yearly mortality rates for all CVDs, IHD, cerebrovascular diseases and ACM have declined in Lithuania between 2001 and 2018, and declining trends were more prominent in women than in men. Among the ICD-10 CVD categories investigated, the points of inflection identified for the ACM mortality rate trend coincided best with the selected alcohol policy enactment dates.

Alcohol control policy measures and all-cause mortality in Lithuania: an interrupted time-series analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Alcohol use has been identified as a major risk factor for burden of mortality and disease, particularly for countries in eastern Europe. During the past two decades, several countries in this region have implemented effective alcohol policy measures to combat this burden. The aim of the current study was to measure the association between Lithuania's alcohol control policies and adult all-cause mortality.

DESIGN

Interrupted time-series methodology by means of general additive models.

SETTING

Lithuania.

PARTICIPANTS

Adult population of Lithuania, aged 20 years and older.

MEASUREMENTS

Alcohol control policies were ascertained via a document review of relevant legislation materials. Policy effects were evaluated as follows: (1) slope changes in periods of legislative (non-)activity with regard to alcohol control policy (analysis 1); (2) level changes of three interventions following recommendations of the World Health Organization (analysis 2); and (3) level changes of seven interventions judged a priori by an international panel of experts (analysis 3). Mortality was measured by sex-stratified and total monthly age-standardized rates of all-cause mortality for the adult population.

FINDINGS

During the period 2001-18, effective alcohol control policy measures were implemented on several occasions, and in those years the all-cause mortality rate declined by approximately 3.2% more than in years without such policies. In particular, the implementation of increased taxation in 2017 was associated with reduced mortality over and above the general trend for men and in total for all analyses, which amounted to 1452 deaths avoided (95% confidence interval = -166 to -2739) in the year following the implementation of the policy.

CONCLUSIONS

Alcohol control policies in Lithuania appear to have reduced the overall adult all-cause mortality over and above secular trends.

Can alcohol consumption in Germany be reduced by alcohol screening, brief intervention and referral to treatment in primary health care? Results of a simulation study

BACKGROUND

Screening, brief intervention and referral to treatment (SBIRT) is a programme to reduce alcohol consumption for drinkers with high alcohol consumption levels. Only 2.9% of patients in primary health care (PHC) are screened for their alcohol use in Germany, despite high levels of alcohol consumption and attributable harm. We developed an open-access simulation model to estimate the impact of higher SBIRT delivery rates in German PHC settings on population-level alcohol consumption.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

A hypothetical population of drinkers and non-drinkers was simulated by sex, age, and educational status for the year 2009 based on survey and sales data. Risky drinking persons receiving BI or RT were sampled from this population based on screening coverage and other parameters. Running the simulation model for a ten-year period, drinking levels and heavy episodic drinking (HED) status were changed based on effect sizes from meta-analyses. In the baseline scenario of 2.9% screening coverage, 2.4% of the adult German population received a subsequent intervention between 2009 and 2018. If every second PHC patient would have been screened for alcohol use, 21% of adult residents in Germany would have received BI or RT by the end of the ten-year simulation period. In this scenario, population-level alcohol consumption would be 11% lower than it was in 2018, without any impact on HED prevalence. Screening coverage rates below 10% were not found to have a measurable effect on drinking levels.

CONCLUSIONS

Large-scale implementation of SBIRT in PHC settings can yield substantial reductions of alcohol consumption in Germany. As high screening coverage rates may only be achievable in the long run, other effective alcohol policies are required to achieve short-term reduction of alcohol use and attributable harm in Germany. There is large potential to apply this open-access simulation model to other settings and for other alcohol interventions.

Alcohol control policies add to secular trends in all-cause mortality rates in young adults

Alcohol consumption is a major risk factor for premature mortality. Although alcohol control policies are known to impact all-cause mortality rates, the effect that policies have on specific age groups is an important area of research. This study investigates the effect of alcohol control policies implemented in 2009 and 2017 in Lithuania on all-cause mortality rates. All-cause mortality rates (deaths per 100,000 people) were obtained for 2001–2018 by 10-year age groups (20–29, 30–39, 40–49 years, etc.). All-cause mortality rates, independent of macro-level secular trends (e.g., economic trends) were examined. Following a joinpoint analysis to control for secular trends, an interrupted time series analysis showed that alcohol control policies had a significant effect on all-cause mortality rates (p = .018), with the most significant impact occurring among young adults (20–29 and 30–39 years of age). For these age groups, their mortality rate decreased during the 12 months following policy implementation (following the policy in 2009 for those 20–29 years of age, p = .0026, and following the policy in 2017 for those 30–39 years of age, p = .011). The results indicate that alcohol control policy can impact all-cause mortality rates, above and beyond secular trends, and that the impact is significant among young adults.