Two decades of mortality change in rural northeast South Africa

Quality of Caregiver-Adolescent Relationship on HIV, Herpes Simplex Virus Type-2, and on Pregnancy Among Young Women in South Africa Enrolled in HIV Prevention Trials Network 068

PURPOSE

Adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) are at an increased risk of acquiring HIV and HSV-2, and unintended pregnancies are high in AGYW. Despite the protective impact of caregiver-adolescent relationships on risk behaviors, less attention has been paid to the association of these relationships and sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and pregnancy.

METHODS

We used longitudinal data from HIV Prevention Trial Network 068, which was conducted among 2,533 AGYW (13 - 20 years) over 5 years in Agincourt, South Africa. Kaplan-Meier and Cox models were used to estimate the effect of quality of caregiver-adolescent relationships (caring and closeness) on STIs and pregnancy. Also, we assessed effect measure modification by age (14-19 vs. 20-25 years) for STI risk using stratum-specific estimates and likelihood ratio tests, with a p value <.1 indicative of effect measure modification.

RESULTS

There were no significant differences in the hazard of HIV by our exposures (caring: hazard ratio (HR): 1.03, 95% CI: 0.75, 1.42; closeness: HR: 0.80, 95% CI: 0.57, 1.11). Among 14-19-year-olds, those who reported caregiver caring were less likely to acquire HSV-2 (HR: 0.69, 95% CI: 0.51, 0.94, likelihood ratio tests= 3.89, p-value = .0487), in contrast, there were no significant differences among 20 - 25-year-olds. AGYW who reported high-quality relationships had a lower hazard of pregnancy incidence (caring: HR: 0.79, 95% CI: 0.68, 0.93; closeness: HR: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.64, 0.91).

DISCUSSION

Positive caregiver-adolescent relationships are associated with reduced risk of HSV-2 among younger AGYW and pregnancy incidence.

Text mining of verbal autopsy narratives to extract mortality causes and most prevalent diseases using natural language processing

Verbal autopsy (VA) narratives play a crucial role in understanding and documenting the causes of mortality, especially in regions lacking robust medical infrastructure. In this study, we propose a comprehensive approach to extract mortality causes and identify prevalent diseases from VA narratives utilizing advanced text mining techniques, so as to better understand the underlying health issues leading to mortality. Our methodology integrates n-gram-based language processing, Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), and BERTopic, offering a multi-faceted analysis to enhance the accuracy and depth of information extraction. This is a retrospective study that uses secondary data analysis. We used data from the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance Site (HDSS), which had 16338 observations collected between 1993 and 2015. Our text mining steps entailed data acquisition, pre-processing, feature extraction, topic segmentation, and discovered knowledge. The results suggest that the HDSS population may have died from mortality causes such as vomiting, chest/stomach pain, fever, coughing, loss of weight, low energy, headache. Additionally, we discovered that the most prevalent diseases entailed human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), tuberculosis (TB), diarrhoea, cancer, neurological disorders, malaria, diabetes, high blood pressure, chronic ailments (kidney, heart, lung, liver), maternal and accident related deaths. This study is relevant in that it avails valuable insights regarding mortality causes and most prevalent diseases using novel text mining approaches. These results can be integrated in the diagnosis pipeline for ease of human annotation and interpretation. As such, this will help with effective informed intervention programmes that can improve primary health care systems and chronic based delivery, thus increasing life expectancy.

Exposure to Adversity and its Impact on Later Life Cognitive, Mental, and Physical Health

Objectives

We aimed to assess later-life health responses to childhood and lifetime adversity in a cohort of rural, Black South African adults.

Methods

We performed ordinary least squares regression using two waves of data from Health and Aging in Africa: A Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH Community in South Africa (HAALSI) to estimate a decline in cognitive, mental, and physical health over approximately 3 years. Our analytic sample consisted of 1,993 women and 1,496 men.

Results

Associations between several types of adversity and health outcomes point to declines in health. At the same time, many adverse experiences are associated with improvements in cognitive, mental, and physical health in later life. The direction of the association varied by type of exposure, health outcome, and gender.

Conclusion

In populations exposed to many adversities during life, specific adverse experiences may sometimes be associated with greater improvements (and not just greater decline) in health in later life. Further research is needed to unpack the mechanisms at play in these populations.

"I'm Getting Life from the Treatment": Perceptions of Life and Death Among Middle-Aged and Older Medication-Adherent Persons Living with HIV in Rural South Africa

The widespread availability of health information and treatment for HIV in Southern Africa does not reach all populations. Few programs and materials are developed with middle-aged and older rural individuals living with HIV as the target audience, despite this being a growing population. This vacuum inevitably exacerbates the disjuncture between clinical and experiential knowledge. This study uses in-depth interviews from 2018 with middle-aged and older rural South Africans who self-report medication adherence to ART in order to explore experiences of living with HIV and beliefs about anti-retroviral treatment (ART). Participants revealed a general sense of vulnerability as a major motivation for HIV medication adherence. A majority of the participants believed that death was imminent if they defaulted on ART at any point in time. Although the availability of ART brought hope to many, HIV was still perceived as a death sentence, particularly if ART adherence was imperfect. The study findings suggest a need to examine the psychosocial component of community programs for middle-aged and older people living with HIV. For this growing population that experienced the full course of the epidemic, more research is needed on the burden of psychological and mental health issues emerging from the need for long-term HIV medication adherence.

The trend and pattern of adult mortality in South-Central Ethiopia: analysis using the 2008-2019 data from Butajira Health and Demographic Surveillance System

Background

Understanding context-specific temporal trends in mortality is essential for setting health policy priorities.

Objective

To investigate the trends and distribution of deaths due to communicable and non-communicable diseases and external causes in South-Central Ethiopia.

Method

All adult deaths captured by the Butajira Health and Demographic Surveillance System between January 2008 and December 2019 were included. A verbal autopsy method of collecting cause of death data was used. Physician review and a computerised algorithm, InterVA, were used to determine the cause of death. Coding was undertaken using the World Health Organization's International Classification of Diseases. Trends in adult mortality rate and proportional mortality were estimated by major cause of death categories. Significant trends were analysed using the Mann–Kendall statistical test with a significance set at P < 0.05. Deaths were also disaggregated by age, sex, and residence.

Results

There were 1,612 deaths in 279,681 person-years; 811 (50.3%) were females. The median age at death was 65 years. The proportional adult mortality and adult mortality rates (per 1000 person-years) attributed to communicable diseases, non-communicable diseases, and external causes were 31.1%, 58.9%, and 6.0%, and 1.9, 3.4, and 0.4, respectively. Adult mortality due to communicable diseases showed a declining trend (tau, the measure of the strength and direction of association, = −0.52; P < 0.05), whereas the trend increased for non-communicable diseases (tau = 0.67, P < 0.05) and external causes (tau = 0.29, P > 0.05). Moreover, death rates were pronounced in the 65+ age group and rural areas but comparable among males and females.

Conclusion

The trend in deaths due to communicable diseases declined but increased for non-communicable diseases and external causes with significant public health burdens. These findings will provide essential input in formulating health policy reforms to reduce premature mortality.

Performance evaluation of machine learning and Computer Coded Verbal Autopsy (CCVA) algorithms for cause of death determination: A comparative analysis of data from rural South Africa

Computer Coded Verbal Autopsy (CCVA) algorithms are commonly used to determine the cause of death (CoD) from questionnaire responses extracted from verbal autopsies (VAs). However, they can only operate on structured data and cannot effectively harness information from unstructured VA narratives. Machine Learning (ML) algorithms have also been applied successfully in determining the CoD from VA narratives, allowing the use of auxiliary information that CCVA algorithms cannot directly utilize. However, most ML-based studies only use responses from the structured questionnaire, and the results lack generalisability and comparability across studies. We present a comparative performance evaluation of ML methods and CCVA algorithms on South African VA narratives data, using data from Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance Site (HDSS) with physicians' classifications as the gold standard. The data were collected from 1993 to 2015 and have 16,338 cases. The random forest and extreme gradient boosting classifiers outperformed the other classifiers on the combined dataset, attaining accuracy of 96% respectively, with significant statistical differences in algorithmic performance (p < 0.0001). All our models attained Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristics (AUROC) of greater than 0.884. The InterVA CCVA attained 83% Cause Specific Mortality Fraction accuracy and an Overall Chance-Corrected Concordance of 0.36. We demonstrate that ML models could accurately determine the cause of death from VA narratives. Additionally, through mortality trends and pattern analysis, we discovered that in the first decade of the civil registration system in South Africa, the average life expectancy was approximately 50 years. However, in the second decade, life expectancy significantly dropped, and the population was dying at a much younger average age of 40 years, mostly from the leading HIV related causes. Interestingly, in the third decade, we see a gradual improvement in life expectancy, possibly attributed to effective health intervention programmes. Through a structure and semantic analysis of narratives where experts disagree, we also demonstrate the most frequent terms of traditional healer consultations and visits. The comparative approach also makes this study a baseline that can be used for future research enforcing generalization and comparability. Future study will entail exploring deep learning models for CoD classification.

Apolipoprotein E Genetic Variation and Its Association With Cognitive Function in Rural-Dwelling Older South Africans

Apolipoprotein E (APOE) 𝜀4 allele carrier status is well known for its association with an increased likelihood of developing Alzheimer’s disease, but its independent role in cognitive function is unclear. APOE genetic variation is understudied in African populations; hence, this cross-sectional study in a rural South African community examined allele and genotype frequencies, and their associations with cognitive function. Cognitive function was assessed using two different screening methods to produce a total cognition score and four domain-specific cognition scores for verbal episodic memory, executive function, language, and visuospatial ability. Cognitive phenotype and APOE genotype data were used to determine whether APOE variation was significantly associated with cognitive function in this population. Observed allele frequencies for 1776 participants from the HAALSI study [age 40–80years (mean=56.19); 58.2% female] were 58.1% (𝜀3), 25.4% (𝜀4) and 16.5% (𝜀2). Allele distributions were similar to the African super population, but different from all non-African super populations from the 1,000 Genomes Project. The 𝜀3 homozygous genotype was most common (34.9%) and used as the base genotype for comparison in regression models. Four models were tested for each of the five cognitive phenotypes to explore association of APOE variation with cognitive function. In the first model assessing association with all genotypes for all individuals, marginally significant associations were observed for 𝜀2 homozygotes where executive function scored higher by ~0.5 standard deviations (p=0.037, SE=0.23), and for 𝜀3/𝜀4 heterozygotes where visuospatial ability scores were lower (p=0.046, SE=0.14). These did not survive correction for multiple testing. Regional African population differences were observed at the APOE locus. Marginally, significant associations between APOE genotype, and executive function and visuospatial ability indicate the need for larger studies to better examine these associations in African populations. Furthermore, longitudinal data could shed light on APOE genetic association with rate of change, or decline, in cognitive function.

Mortality transition over a quarter century in rural South Africa: findings from population surveillance in Agincourt 1993-2018

Background

Mortality burden in South Africa since the mid-1990s has been characterized by a quadruple disease burden: HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis (TB); other communicable diseases (excluding HIV/AIDS and TB), maternal causes, perinatal conditions and nutritional deficiencies; non-communicable diseases (NCDs); and injuries. Causes from these broad groupings have persistently constituted the top 10 causes of death. However, proportions and rankings have varied over time, alongside overall mortality levels.

Objective

To provide evidence on the contributions of age and cause-of-death to changes in mortality levels in a rural South African population over a quarter century (1993–2018).

Methods

Using mortality and cause-of-death data from the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS), we derive estimates of the distribution of deaths by cause, and hazards of death by age, sex, and time period, 1993–2018. We derive estimates of life expectancies at birth and years of life expectancy gained at age 15 if most common causes of death were deleted. We compare mortality indicators and cause-of-death trends from the Agincourt HDSS with South African national indicators generated from publicly available datasets.

Results

Mortality and cause-of-death transition reveals that overall mortality levels have returned to pre-HIV epidemic levels. In recent years, the concentration of mortality has shifted towards older ages, and the mortality burden from cardiovascular diseases and other chronic NCDs are more prominent as people living with HIV/AIDS access ART and live longer. Changes in life expectancy at birth, distribution of deaths by age, and major cause-of-death categories in the Agincourt population follow a similar pattern to the South African population.

Conclusion

The Agincourt HDSS provides critical information about general mortality, cause-of-death, and age patterns in rural South Africa. Realigning and strengthening the South African public health and healthcare systems is needed to concurrently cater for the prevention, control, and treatment of multiple disease conditions.

Grandchild Caregiving and Cognitive Health Among Grandparents in Rural South Africa

Objectives: We investigate how caregiving for grandchildren is associated with cognitive function among rural South Africans, and whether the association differs by gender. We further investigate whether measures of physical activity or social engagement mediate this association. Methods: Data were from interviews with 3668 Black, South African grandparents in the "Health and Aging in Africa: A Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH Community in South Africa" study, conducted between 2014 and 2015. Results: We find that caregiving grandparents have better cognitive function than non-caregiving grandparents, and this association does not differ by grandparent gender. Although grandchild caregiving is associated with physical activity and social engagement measures, and some of these measures are associated with cognitive function, we do not find conclusive evidence of mediation. Discussion: Providing care for grandchildren may stimulate cognitive function for both grandmothers and grandfathers. Neither physical activity nor social engagement explains the association between caregiving and cognitive function.

From "Secret" to "Sensitive Issue": Shifting Ideas About HIV Disclosure Among Middle-Aged and Older Rural South Africans in the Era of Antiretroviral Treatment

OBJECTIVE

As HIV shifts from "death sentence" to "chronic condition," disclosure of HIV status to intimate partners and family is a significant component of both prevention and treatment adherence. While disclosure is closely considered in many studies, few examine middle-aged and older persons' (age 40+) perspectives or practices. We trace older rural South Africans' views on HIV disclosure to their partners and family members in a high prevalence community over a period of extensive antiretroviral treatment (ART) rollout.

METHODS

Community focus group discussions (FGD) conducted in 2013 and 2018 show shifts in older persons' thinking about HIV disclosure.

FINDINGS

Our FGD participants saw fewer negative consequences of disclosure in 2018 than in 2013, and highlighted positive outcomes including building trust (partners) as well as greater support for medication collection and adherence (family).

DISCUSSION

Particularly as the epidemic ages in South Africa and globally, tracing changes in older persons' views on disclosure is an important step in developing messaging that could enhance treatment as prevention and ART adherence.

Incidence of Cognitive Impairment during Aging in Rural South Africa: Evidence from HAALSI, 2014 to 2019

INTRODUCTION

Despite rapid population aging, there are currently limited data on the incidence of aging-related cognitive impairment in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to determine the incidence of cognitive impairment and its distribution across key demographic, social, and health-related factors among older adults in rural South Africa.

METHODS

Data were from in-person interviews with 3,856 adults aged ≥40 who were free from cognitive impairment at baseline in the population-representative cohort, "Health and Aging in Africa: a Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH Community in South Africa" (HAALSI), in Agincourt sub-district, Mpumalanga province, South Africa (2014-19). Cognitive impairment was defined as scoring <1.5 standard deviations below the mean of the baseline distribution of orientation and episodic memory scores. Incidence rates and rate ratios for cognitive impairment were estimated according to key demographic, social, and health-related factors, adjusted for age, sex/gender, and country of birth.

RESULTS

The incidence of cognitive impairment was 25.7/1,000 person-years (PY; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 23.0-28.8), weighted for mortality (12%) and attrition (6%) over the 3.5-year mean follow-up (range: 1.5-4.8 years). Incidence increased with age, from 8.9/1,000 PY (95% CI: 5.2-16.8) among those aged 40-44 to 93.5/1,000 PY (95% CI: 75.9-116.3) among those aged 80+, and age-specific risks were similar by sex/gender. Incidence was strongly associated with formal education and literacy, as well as marital status, household assets, employment, and alcohol consumption but not with history of smoking, hypertension, stroke, angina, heart attack, diabetes, or prevalent HIV.

CONCLUSIONS

This study presents some of the first incidence rate estimates for aging-related cognitive impairment in rural South Africa. Social disparities in incident cognitive impairment rates were apparent in patterns similar to those observed in many high-income countries.

Receipt of Emotional Support among Rural South African Adults

As the world undergoes rapid ageing, informal support from friends and relatives is becoming especially important among older adults in middle and low income countries, where formalized social protections may be limited. We use new data from a cohort of adults ages 40 and older in rural South Africa to explore how receipt of emotional support differs by gender and marital status. Our findings suggest that women are more likely to get emotional support than men and have more sources of support. Moreover, women are more likely to get emotional support from relatives, whereas men are more likely to get support from friends. In regard to marital status, married people are more likely to get emotional support and have more sources of support than people who are not married. However, separated/divorced and widowed people are more likely to get emotional support from relatives and have more sources of non-spousal support than married people. These findings point toward gaps in informal systems of support, and the particular importance of considering men and unmarried (especially never married) people when designing policies to offer social protections to older populations.

Climate Change and Healthcare Sustainability in the Agincourt Sub-District, Kruger to Canyons Biosphere Region, South Africa

As low-income communities are most vulnerable to climate-associated health concerns, access to healthcare will increase in importance as a key priority in South Africa. This study explores healthcare sustainability in the Agincourt sub-district, Kruger to Canyons Biosphere Region in Mpumalanga, South Africa. A rapid assessment and response methodology (RAR) was implemented, which includes the examination of previous studies conducted in the sub-district, the mapping of healthcare facilities in the area, and the implementation of a facility infrastructure and workforce capacity investigation by means of key informant (KI) interviews at eight healthcare facilities. Findings indicate that the greatest need across the facilities relate to access to medical doctors and pharmacists. None of the facilities factored climate associations with health into their clinical care strategies. The necessity to train healthcare facility staff on aspects related to climate change, health, and sustainability is highlighted. Environmental health practitioners should also be incorporated in grassroots community climate adaptation strategies. Outcomes further indicate the need for the advancement of integrated healthcare and climate adaptation strategies that focus on strengthening healthcare systems, which may include novel technological approaches such as telemedicine. Policy makers need to be proactive and pre-emptive in finding and improving processes and models to render healthcare services prepared for climate change.

Enhancing the value of mortality data for health systems: adding Circumstances Of Mortality CATegories (COMCATs) to deaths investigated by verbal autopsy

Half of the world's deaths and their causes pass unrecorded by routine registration systems, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Verbal autopsy (VA) collects information on medical signs, symptoms and circumstances from witnesses of a death that is used to assign likely medical causes. To further contextualise information on mortality, understanding underlying determinants, such as logistics, barriers to service utilisation and health systems responses, is important for health planning. Adding systematic methods for categorising circumstantial determinants of death to conventional VA tools is therefore important. In this context, the World Health Organization (WHO) leads the development of international standards for VA, and added questions on the social and health systems circumstances of death in 2012. This paper introduces a pragmatic and scalable approach for assigning relevant Circumstances Of Mortality CATegories (COMCATs) within VA tools, and examines their consistency, reproducibility and plausibility for health policy making, as well as assessing additional effort and cost to the routine VA process. This innovative COMCAT model is integrated with InterVA-5 software (which processes WHO-2016 VA data), for assigning numeric likelihoods to six circumstantial categories for each death. VA data from 4,116 deaths in the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System in South Africa from 2012 to 2016 were used to demonstrate proof of principle for COMCATs. Lack of resources to access health care, poor recognition of diseases and inadequate health systems responses ranked highest among COMCATs in the demonstration dataset. COMCATs correlated plausibly with age, sex, causes of death and local knowledge of the demonstration population. The COMCAT approach appears to be plausible, feasible and enhances the functionality of routine VA to account for critical limiting circumstances at and around the time of death. It is a promising tool for evaluating progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals and the roll-out of Universal Health Coverage.

Cognitive Function and Impairment in Older, Rural South African Adults: Evidence from "Health and Aging in Africa: A Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH Community in Rural South Africa"

BACKGROUND/AIMS

We aimed to estimate the prevalence of cognitive impairment, and the sociodemographic and comorbid predictors of cognitive function among older, rural South African adults.

METHODS

Data were from a population-based study of 5,059 adults aged ≥40 years in rural South Africa in 2015. Cognitive impairment was defined as scoring ≤1.5 SDs below the mean composite time orientation and memory score, or requiring a proxy interview with "fair" or "poor" proxy-reported memory. Multiple linear regression estimated the sociodemographic and comorbid predictors of cognitive score, with multiplicative statistical interactions between each of age and sex with education.

RESULTS

Cognitive impairment increased with age, from 2% of those aged 40-44 (11/516) to 24% of those aged ≥75 years (214/899). The independent predictors of lower cognitive score were being older, female, unmarried, not working, having low education, low household wealth, and a history of cardiovascular conditions. Education modified the negative associations between female sex, older age, and cognitive function score.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of cognitive impairment increased with age and is comparable to rates of dementia reported in other sub-Saharan African countries. Age and sex differences in cognitive function scores were minimized as education increased, potentially reflecting the power of even poor-quality education to improve cognitive reserve.

Cardiovascular Disease Profile of the Oldest Adults in Rural South Africa: Data from the HAALSI Study (Health and Aging in Africa: Longitudinal Studies of INDEPTH Communities)

OBJECTIVES

To characterize the cardiovascular disease (CVD) profile of individuals aged 80 and older in rural South Africa.

DESIGN

First wave of population-based longitudinal cohort.

SETTING

Agincourt subdistrict (Mpumalanga Province) in rural South Africa.

PARTICIPANTS

Adults residents (N = 5,059).

MEASUREMENTS

In-person interviews were conducted to obtain social, behavioral, economic, and clinical data. Prevalence of hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, high waist-to-hip ratio, overweight and obesity, high-risk high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, smoking, stroke, myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, and heart failure in individuals younger than 65, aged 65 to 79, and aged 80 and older were compared. Associations between self-reported treatments and determinants of hypertension treatment in those aged 80 and older were assessed using multivariable regression.

RESULTS

Of 5,059 individuals included, 549 (10.8%) were aged 80 and older, and their CVD prevalence was 17.9% (stroke 3.8%, myocardial infarction 0.5%, angina pectoris 13.5%, heart failure 0.7%). Hypertension prevalence in this group was 73.8%, and along with angina pectoris, it increased with age (p<.001), whereas overweight and obesity (46.4%), dyslipidemia (39.1%), and smoking prevalences (3.1%) decreased (p<.001). Hypertension treatment was significantly associated with being aged 80 and older (odds ratio (OR)=1.48; 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.14-1.92, p=.003). Male sex (OR=0.73, 95% CI=0.66-0.88, p=.001), being an immigrant (OR=0.80, 95% CI=0.65-0.98; p=.03), higher socioeconomic status (OR=1.28, 95% CI=1.06-1.53, p=.009), and higher depression score (OR=1.12, 95% CI=1.05-1.19, p<.001) were associated with hypertension treatment in those aged 80 and older.

CONCLUSION

This is the first study to characterize the CVD profile of individuals aged 80 and older in sub-Saharan Africa and provides baseline data for comparison with future studies in this rapidly growing age group. J Am Geriatr Soc 66:2151-2157, 2018.

Reporting of ethics in peer-reviewed verbal autopsy studies: a systematic review

Introduction

Verbal autopsy (VA) is a method that determines the cause of death by interviewing a relative of the deceased about the events occurring before the death, in regions where medical certification of cause of death is incomplete. This paper aims to review the ethical standards reported in peer-reviewed VA studies.

Methods

A systematic review of Medline and Ovid was conducted by two independent researchers. Data were extracted and analysed for articles based on three key areas: Institutional Review Board (IRB) clearance and consenting process; data collection and management procedures, including: time between death and interview; training and education of interviewer, confidentiality of data and data security; and declarations of funding and conflict of interest.

Results

The review identified 802 articles, of which 288 were included. The review found that 48% all the studies reported having IRB clearance or obtaining consent of participants. The interviewer training and education levels were reported in 62% and 21% of the articles, respectively. Confidentiality of data was reported for 14% of all studies, 18% did not report the type of respondent interviewed and 51% reported time between death and the interview for the VA. Data security was reported in 8% of all studies. Funding was declared in 63% of all studies and conflict of interest in 42%. Reporting of all these variables increased over time.

Conclusions

The results of this systematic review show that although there has been an increase in ethical reporting for VA studies, there still remains a large gap in reporting.

Morbidity and mortality of children aged 2-59 months admitted in the Tanzania Lake Zone's public hospitals: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

There is a growing concern about child mortality especially in developing countries. The Government of Tanzania and non-governmental organizations are fighting against diseases like malaria, anaemia, diarrhoea and pneumonia that contribute extensively to child mortality. This was a hospital-based, retrospective cohort study involving 1130 under-fives (excluding neonates) being either discharged from or died in public hospitals of the Lake Zone in Tanzania. We extracted information on symptoms and signs at admission, major diagnoses and causes of death from the medical records. We applied binary logistic regression models to assess risk factors associated with in-patient under-five death.

RESULTS

The major leading morbidities include malaria (49%), anemia (37%), diarrhea (27%), pneumonia (22%) and severe acute malnutrition (21%). We found the case fatality of 74 deaths per 1000 under-five admissions. Major underlying causes of deaths were severe anaemia, severe malaria and severe pneumonia. Factors associated with in-patient death were female sex (AOR 1.7; 95% CI 1.0, 2.8) and the odds significantly decreased with increasing level of maternal education.

CONCLUSIONS

Malaria remains a leading cause of admissions in hospitals among under-fives. Although the case fatality among children aged between 2 and 59 months admitted in hospitals in Lake Zone is decreasing, efforts are needed to address major causes of deaths (severe anaemia, severe malaria and severe pneumonia).

Social Positioning of Older Persons in Rural South Africa: Change or Stability?

The South African context challenges the conventional categorisation of older persons as dependent after a certain age. The concurrence of old-age pensions, high unemployment, high HIV prevalence, and frailty related to ageing necessitate a more dynamic approach to understanding older persons' social positioning. We examine the extent of change in older persons' social positioning within their households and the correlates of change in a rural community in South Africa. Using data from the Agincourt Health and socio-Demographic Surveillance System and a new typology of older persons' social positioning based on living arrangements, we (1) describe older persons' living arrangements in two time periods; (2) calculate transition probabilities of older persons' changing living arrangements over time; (3) identify possible drivers of change. Results show that while older persons experience stability in living arrangements over time, this stability is more prevalent among those who start in productive roles. Moreover, those who change arrangements are likely to move into productive roles. Taken together, these findings suggest that older South Africans fulfil productive roles in households while simultaneously experiencing ageing-related frailty and diminished labour capacity. These findings underscore the importance of considering ageing as both an individual and a relational process, with implications for older persons and their families.

Socioeconomic differences in mortality in the antiretroviral therapy era in Agincourt, rural South Africa, 2001-13: a population surveillance analysis

BACKGROUND

Understanding the effects of socioeconomic disparities in health outcomes is important to implement specific preventive actions. We assessed socioeconomic disparities in mortality indicators in a rural South African population over the period 2001-13.

METHODS

We used data from 21 villages of the Agincourt Health and socio-Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS). We calculated the probabilities of death from birth to age 5 years and from age 15 to 60 years, life expectancy at birth, and cause-specific and age-specific mortality by sex (not in children <5 years), time period, and socioeconomic status (household wealth) quintile for HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis, other communicable diseases (excluding HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis) and maternal, perinatal, and nutritional causes, non-communicable diseases, and injury. We also quantified differences with relative risk ratios and relative and slope indices of inequality.

FINDINGS

Between 2001 and 2013, 10 414 deaths were registered over 1 058 538 person-years of follow-up, meaning the overall crude mortality was 9·8 deaths per 1000 person-years. We found significant socioecomonic status gradients for mortality and life expectancy at birth, with outcomes improving with increasing socioeconomic status. An inverse relation was seen for HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis mortality and socioeconomic status that persisted from 2001 to 2013. Deaths from non-communicable diseases increased over time in both sexes, and injury was an important cause of death in men and boys. Neither of these causes of death, however, showed consistent significant associations with household socioeconomic status.

INTERPRETATION

The poorest people in the population continue to bear a high burden of HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis mortality, despite free antiretroviral therapy being made available from public health facilities. Associations between socioeconomic status and increasing burden of mortality from non-communicable diseases is likely to become prominent. Integrated strategies are needed to improve access to and uptake of HIV testing, care, and treatment, and management of non-communicable diseases in the poorest populations.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, South African Medical Research Council, and University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa.

Childhood deprivation and later-life cognitive function in a population-based study of older rural South Africans

RATIONALE

Little research has evaluated the life course drivers of cognitive aging in South Africa.

OBJECTIVES

We investigated the relationships of self-rated childhood health and father's occupation during childhood with later-life cognitive function score and whether educational attainment mediated these relationships among older South Africans living in a former region of Apartheid-era racial segregation.

METHODS

Data were from baseline assessments of "Health and Aging in Africa: A Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH Community" (HAALSI), a population-based study of 5059 men and women aged ≥40 years in 2015 in rural Agincourt sub-district, South Africa. Childhood health, father's occupation during childhood, and years of education were self-reported in study interviews. Cognitive measures assessed time orientation, numeracy, and word recall, which were included in a z-standardized latent cognitive function score variable. Linear regression models adjusted for age, sex, and country of birth were used to estimate the total and direct effects of each childhood risk factor, and the indirect effects mediated by years of education.

RESULTS

Poor childhood health predicted lower cognitive scores (total effect = -0.28; 95% CI = -0.35, -0.21, versus good); this effect was not mediated by educational attainment. Having a father in a professional job during childhood, while rare (3% of sample), predicted better cognitive scores (total effect = 0.25; 95% CI = 0.10, 0.40, versus unskilled manual labor, 29% of sample). Half of this effect was mediated by educational attainment. Education was linearly associated with later-life cognitive function score (0.09; 95% CI = 0.09, 0.10 per year achieved).

CONCLUSION

In this post-Apartheid, rural South African context, older adults with poor self-reported childhood health or whose father worked in unskilled manual labor had relatively poor cognitive outcomes. Educational attainment strongly predicted cognitive outcomes, and appeared to be, in part, a mechanism of social stratification in later-life cognitive health in this context.

The long road to elimination: malaria mortality in a South African population cohort over 21 years

Background

Malaria elimination is on global agendas following successful transmission reductions. Nevertheless moving from low to zero transmission is challenging. South Africa has an elimination target of 2018, which may or may not be realised in its hypoendemic areas.

Methods

The Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System has monitored population health in north-eastern South Africa since 1992. Malaria deaths were analysed against individual factors, socioeconomic status, labour migration and weather over a 21-year period, eliciting trends over time and associations with covariates.

Results

Of 13 251 registered deaths over 1.58 million person-years, 1.2% were attributed to malaria. Malaria mortality rates increased from 1992 to 2013, while mean daily maximum temperature rose by 1.5 °C. Travel to endemic Mozambique became easier, and malaria mortality increased in higher socioeconomic groups. Overall, malaria mortality was significantly associated with age, socioeconomic status, labour migration and employment, yearly rainfall and higher rainfall/temperature shortly before death.

Conclusions

Malaria persists as a small but important cause of death in this semi-rural South African population. Detailed longitudinal population data were crucial for these analyses. The findings highlight practical political, socioeconomic and environmental difficulties that may also be encountered elsewhere in moving from low-transmission scenarios to malaria elimination.

Progression of the epidemiological transition in a rural South African setting: findings from population surveillance in Agincourt, 1993-2013

Background

Virtually all low- and middle-income countries are undergoing an epidemiological transition whose progression is more varied than experienced in high-income countries. Observed changes in mortality and disease patterns reveal that the transition in most low- and middle-income countries is characterized by reversals, partial changes and the simultaneous occurrence of different types of diseases of varying magnitude. Localized characterization of this shifting burden, frequently lacking, is essential to guide decentralised health and social systems on the effective targeting of limited resources. Based on a rigorous compilation of mortality data over two decades, this paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the epidemiological transition in a rural South African population.

Methods

We estimate overall and cause-specific hazards of death as functions of sex, age and time period from mortality data from the Agincourt Health and socio-Demographic Surveillance System and conduct statistical tests of changes and differentials to assess the progression of the epidemiological transition over the period 1993–2013.

Results

From the early 1990s until 2007 the population experienced a reversal in its epidemiological transition, driven mostly by increased HIV/AIDS and TB related mortality. In recent years, the transition is following a positive trajectory as a result of declining HIV/AIDS and TB related mortality. However, in most age groups the cause of death distribution is yet to reach the levels it occupied in the early 1990s. The transition is also characterized by persistent gender differences with more rapid positive progression in females than males.

Conclusions

This typical rural South African population is experiencing a protracted epidemiological transition. The intersection and interaction of HIV/AIDS and antiretroviral treatment, non-communicable disease risk factors and complex social and behavioral changes will impact on continued progress in reducing preventable mortality and improving health across the life course. Integrated healthcare planning and program delivery is required to improve access and adherence for HIV and non-communicable disease treatment. These findings from a local, rural setting over an extended period contribute to the evidence needed to inform further refinement and advancement of epidemiological transition theory.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12889-017-4312-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Cardiometabolic risk in a population of older adults with multiple co-morbidities in rural south africa: the HAALSI (Health and Aging in Africa: longitudinal studies of INDEPTH communities) study

BACKGROUND

A consequence of the widespread uptake of anti-retroviral therapy (ART) is that the older South African population will experience an increase in life expectancy, increasing their risk for cardiometabolic diseases (CMD), and its risk factors. The long-term interactions between HIV infection, treatment, and CMD remain to be elucidated in the African population. The HAALSI cohort was established to investigate the impact of these interactions on CMD morbidity and mortality among middle-aged and older adults.

METHODS

We recruited randomly selected adults aged 40 or older residing in the rural Agincourt sub-district in Mpumalanga Province. In-person interviews were conducted to collect baseline household and socioeconomic data, self-reported health, anthropometric measures, blood pressure, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), HbA1c, HIV-status, and point-of-care glucose and lipid levels.

RESULTS

Five thousand fifty nine persons (46.4% male) were enrolled with a mean age of 61.7 ± 13.06 years. Waist-to-hip ratio was high for men and women (0.92 ± 0.08 vs. 0.89 ± 0.08), with 70% of women and 44% of men being overweight or obese. Blood pressure was similar for men and women with a combined hypertension prevalence of 58.4% and statistically significant increases were observed with increasing age. High total cholesterol prevalence in women was twice that observed for men (8.5 vs. 4.1%). The prevalence of self-reported CMD conditions was higher among women, except for myocardial infarction, and women had a statistically significantly higher prevalence of angina (10.82 vs. 6.97%) using Rose Criteria. The HIV- persons were significantly more likely to have hypertension, diabetes, or be overweight or obese than HIV+ persons. Approximately 56% of the cohort had at least 2 measured or self-reported clinical co-morbidities, with HIV+ persons having a consistently lower prevalence of co-morbidities compared to those without HIV. Absolute 10-year risk cardiovascular risk scores ranged from 7.7-9.7% for women and from 12.5-15.3% for men, depending on the risk score equations used.

CONCLUSIONS

This cohort has high CMD risk based on both traditional risk factors and novel markers like hsCRP. Longitudinal follow-up of the cohort will allow us to determine the long-term impact of increased lifespan in a population with both high HIV infection and CMD risk.

Under-five mortality rate variation between the Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) and Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) approaches

BACKGROUND

Several low and middle-income countries (LMIC) use Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and/or Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) to monitor the health of their population. The level and trends of under-five mortality rates could be different in the HDSS sites compared to the DHS reports. In this study, we investigated the change in under-five mortality rates overtime in the HDSS sites and the corresponding DHS reports in eight countries and 13 sites.

METHODS

Under-five mortality rates in the HDSS sites were determined using number of under-five deaths (numerator) and live births (denominator). The trends and annualized rate of change (ARC) of under-five mortality rates in the HDSS sites and the DHS reports were compared by fitting exponential function.

RESULTS

Under-five mortality rates declined substantially in most of the sites during the last 10-15 years. Ten out of 13 (77 %) HDSS sites have consistently lower under-five mortality rates than the DHS under-five mortality rates. In the Kilifi HDSS in Kenya, under-five mortality rate declined by 65.6 % between 2003 and 2014 with ARC of 12.2 % (95 % CI: 9.4-15.0). In the same period, the DHS under-five mortality rate in the Coastal region of Kenya declined by 50.8 % with ARC of 6 % (95 % CI: 2.0-9.0). The under-five mortality rate reduction in the Mlomp (78.1 %) and Niakhar (80.8 %) HDSS sites in Senegal during 1993-2012 was significantly higher than the mortality decline observed in the DHS report during the same period. On the other hand, the Kisumu HDSS in Kenya had lower under-five mortality reduction (15.8 %) compared to the mortality reduction observed in the DHS report (27.7 %) during 2003-2008. Under-five mortality rate rose by 27 % in the Agincourt HDSS in South Africa between 1998 to 2003 that was contrary to the 18 % under-five mortality reduction in the DHS report during the same period.

CONCLUSIONS

The inconsistency between HDSS and DHS approaches could have global implication on the estimation of child mortality and ethical issues on mortality inequalities. Further studies should be conducted to investigate the reasons of child mortality variation between the HDSS and the DHS approaches.

Effects of recall time on cause-of-death findings using verbal autopsy: empirical evidence from rural South Africa

BACKGROUND

Verbal autopsy (VA) is a widely used technique for assigning causes to non-medically certified deaths using information gathered from a close caregiver. Both operational and cultural factors may cause delays in follow-up of deaths. The resulting time lag-from death to VA interview-can influence ways in which terminal events are remembered, and thus affect cause-of-death assignment. This study investigates the impact of recall period on causes of death determined by VA.

METHODS

A total of 10,882 deaths from the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) with complete VAs, including recall period, were incorporated in this study. To measure seasonal effect, cause specific mortality fractions (CSMFs) were calculated and compared by every cause for VAs undertaken within six months of death and those undertaken from six to 12 months of death. All causes were classified into eight broad categories and entered in a multiple logistic regression to explore outcome by recall period in relation to covariates.

RESULTS

The majority of deaths (83 %) had VAs completed within 12 months. There was a tendency towards longer recall periods for deaths of those under one year or over 65 years of age. Only the acute respiratory, diarrhoeal and other unspecified non-communicable disease groups showed a CSMF ratio significantly different from unity at the 99 % confidence level between the two recall periods. Only neonatal deaths showed significantly different OR for recall exceeding 12 months (OR 1.69; p value = 0.004) and this increased when adjusting for background factors (OR 2.58; p value = 0.000).

CONCLUSION

A recall period of up to one year between death and VA interview did not have any consequential effects on the cause-of-death patterns derived, with the exception of neonatal causes. This is an important operational consideration given the planned widespread use of the VA approach in civil registration, HDSS sites and occasional surveys.

Economic burden of stroke in a rural South African setting

Background

Stroke is the second leading cause of mortality and leading cause of disability in South Africa yet published data on the economic costs of stroke is lacking particularly in rural settings.

Methods

We estimate the total direct costs of stroke in 2012 from a health system perspective using a prevalence-based, bottom-up costing approach. Direct costs include diagnosis, inpatient and outpatient care. Analysis is based on the Agincourt health and socio-demographic surveillance system, which covers approximately 90,000 people. Published data from the SASPI study, Tintswalo Hospital Stroke register, and national cost databases were used. Sensitivity analysis was carried out to account for the variability in the data used.

Results

The total direct costs of stroke were estimated to be R2.5–R4.2 million (US$283,500–US$485,000) in 2012 or 1.6–3% of the sub-district health expenditure. Of this, 80% was attributed to inpatient costs. Total costs were most sensitive to the underlying incidence rates and to assumptions regarding service utilisation.

Conclusions

Our study provides a snapshot of costs incurred on stroke in rural South Africa. We show that stroke is a disease with high economic costs. Further studies that assess the lifetime costs of stroke are needed to better understand savings accrued from intervening at different stages of the disease.

•

We present the first estimates of costs of treating stroke in rural South Africa.

•

Stroke imposes a high economic burden in this setting.

•

Total direct costs of US$283,500 –US$485,000 represent 1.6-3% of the sub-district health expenditure.

•

Cost-of-illness studies for stroke can be conducted using available information sources.

Diverse Empirical Evidence on Epidemiological Transition in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Population-Based Findings from INDEPTH Network Data

Background

Low- and middle-income countries are often described as being at intermediate stages of epidemiological transition, but there is little population-based data with reliable cause of death assignment to examine the situation in more detail. Non-communicable diseases are widely seen as a coming threat to population health, alongside receding burdens of infection. The INDEPTH Network has collected empirical population data in a number of health and demographic surveillance sites in low- and middle-income countries which permit more detailed examination of mortality trends over time.

Objective

To examine cause-specific mortality trends across all ages at INDEPTH Network sites in Africa and Asia during the period 1992–2012. Emphasis is given to the 15–64 year age group, which is the main focus of concern around the impact of the HIV pandemic and emerging non-communicable disease threats.

Methods

INDEPTH Network public domain data from 12 sites that each reported at least five years of cause-specific mortality data were used. Causes of death were attributed using standardised WHO verbal autopsy methods, and mortality rates were standardised for comparison using the INDEPTH standard population. Annual changes in mortality rates were calculated for each site.

Results

A total of 96,255 deaths were observed during 9,487,418 person years at the 12 sites. Verbal autopsies were completed for 86,039 deaths (89.4%). There were substantial variations in mortality rates between sites and over time. HIV-related mortality played a major part at sites in eastern and southern Africa. Deaths in the age group 15–64 years accounted for 43% of overall mortality. Trends in mortality were generally downwards, in some cases quite rapidly so. The Bangladeshi sites reflected populations at later stages of transition than in Africa, and were largely free of the effects of HIV/AIDS.

Conclusions

To some extent the patterns of epidemiological transition observed followed theoretical expectations, despite the impact of the HIV pandemic having a major effect in some locations. Trends towards lower overall mortality, driven by decreasing infections, were the general pattern. Low- and middle-income country populations appear to be in an era of rapid transition.

HIV/AIDS in South Africa: how many people died from the disease between 1997 and 2010?

OBJECTIVES

Empirical estimates of the number of HIV/AIDS deaths are important for planning, budgeting, and calibrating models. However, there is an extensive misattribution of HIV/AIDS as an underlying cause-of-death. This study estimates the true numbers of AIDS deaths from South African vital statistics between 1997 and 2010.

METHODS

Individual-level cause-of-death data were grouped according to a local burden of disease list and source causes (i.e. causes under which AIDS deaths are misclassified) that recorded a rapid increase. After adjusting for completeness of registration, the mortality rate of the source causes, by age and sex, was regressed on the lagged HIV prevalence to estimate the rate of increase correlated with HIV. Background trends in the source-cause mortality rates were estimated from the trend experienced among 75-84 year olds.

RESULTS

Of 214 causes considered, 19 were identified as potential sources for cause misattribution. High proportions of deaths from tuberculosis, lower respiratory infections (mostly pneumonia), diarrhoeal diseases, and ill-defined natural causes were estimated to be HIV-related, with only 7% of the estimated AIDS deaths being recorded as HIV. Estimated HIV/AIDS deaths increased rapidly, then reversed after 2006, totalling 2.8 million deaths over the whole period. The number was lower than model estimates from Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the Global Burden of Disease Study.

CONCLUSION

Empirically based estimates confirm the considerable loss of life from HIV/AIDS and should be used for calibrating models of the AIDS epidemic which generally appear too low for infants but too high for other ages. Doctors are urged to specify HIV on death notifications to provide reliable cause-of-death statistics.

Burden of stroke attributable to selected lifestyle risk factors in rural South Africa

BACKGROUND

Rural South Africa (SA) is undergoing a rapid health transition characterized by increases in non-communicable diseases; stroke in particular. Knowledge of the relative contribution of modifiable risk factors on disease occurrence is needed for public health prevention efforts and community-oriented health promotion. Our aim was to estimate the burden of stroke in rural SA that is attributable to high blood pressure, excess weight and high blood glucose using World Health Organization's comparative risk assessment (CRA) framework.

METHODS

We estimated current exposure distributions of the risk factors in rural SA using 2010 data from the Agincourt health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS). Relative risks of stroke per unit of exposure were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. We used data from the Agincourt HDSS to estimate age-, sex-, and stroke specific deaths and disability adjusted life years (DALYs). We estimated the proportion of the years of life lost (YLL) and DALY loss attributable to the risk factors and incorporate uncertainty intervals into these estimates.

RESULTS

Overall, 38 % of the documented stroke burden was due to high blood pressure (12 % males; 26 % females). This translated to 520 YLL per year (95 % CI: 325-678) and 540 DALYs (CI: 343-717). Excess Body Mass Index (BMI) was calculated as responsible for 20 % of the stroke burden (3.5 % males; 16 % females). This translated to 260 YLLs (CI: 199-330) and 277 DALYs (CI: 211-350). Burden was disproportionately higher in young females when BMI was assessed.

CONCLUSIONS

High blood pressure and excess weight, which both have effective interventions, are responsible for a significant proportion of the stroke burden in rural SA; the burden varies across age and sex sub-groups. The most effective way forward to reduce the stroke burden requires both population wide policies that have an impact across the age spectra and targeted (health promotion/disease prevention) interventions on women and young people.

A Successful Failure: Missing the MDG4 Target for Under-Five Mortality in South Africa

Reflecting on under-five mortality, Peter Byass and colleagues consider how some countries may fail to meet millennium development goal targets despite making considerable advances.

Local perceptions of causes of death in rural South Africa: a comparison of perceived and verbal autopsy causes of death

Background

Understanding how lay people perceive the causes of mortality and their associated risk factors is important for public health. In resource-limited settings, where verbal autopsy (VA) is used as the most expedient method of determining cause of death, it is important to understand how pre-existing concepts of cause of death among VA-informants may influence their VA-responses and the consequential impact on cause of death assessment. This study describes the agreement between VA-derived causes of death and informant-perceived causes and associated influential factors, which also reflects lay health literacy in this setting.

Method

Using 20 years of VA data (n=11,228) from the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) site in rural South Africa, we explored the agreement between the causes of death perceived by the VA-informants and those assigned by the automated Inter-VA tool. Kappa statistics and concordance correlation coefficients were applied to measure agreement at individual and population levels, respectively. Multivariable regression models were used to explore factors associated with recognised lay perceptions of causes of mortality.

Results

Agreement between informant-perceived and VA-derived causes of death at the individual level was limited, but varied substantially by cause of death. However, agreement at the population level, comparing cause-specific mortality fractions was higher, with the notable exception of bewitchment as a cause. More recent deaths, those in adults aged 15–49 years, deaths outside the home, and those associated with external causes showed higher concordance with InterVA.

Conclusion

Overall, informant perception of causes of death was limited, but depended on informant characteristics and causes of death, and to some extent involved non-biomedical constructs. Understanding discordance between perceived and recognised causes of death is important for public health planning; low community understanding of causes of death may be detrimental to public health. These findings also illustrate the importance of using rigorous and standardised VA methods rather than relying on informants’ reported causes of death.

Cause-specific mortality at INDEPTH Health and Demographic Surveillance System Sites in Africa and Asia: concluding synthesis

This synthesis brings together findings on cause-specific mortality documented by means of verbal autopsies applied to over 110,000 deaths across Africa and Asia, within INDEPTH Network sites.

Cause-specific mortality in Africa and Asia: evidence from INDEPTH health and demographic surveillance system sites

BACKGROUND

Because most deaths in Africa and Asia are not well documented, estimates of mortality are often made using scanty data. The INDEPTH Network works to alleviate this problem by collating detailed individual data from defined Health and Demographic Surveillance sites. By registering all deaths over time and carrying out verbal autopsies to determine cause of death across many such sites, using standardised methods, the Network seeks to generate population-based mortality statistics that are not otherwise available.

OBJECTIVE

To build a large standardised mortality database from African and Asian sites, detailing the relevant methods, and use it to describe cause-specific mortality patterns.

DESIGN

Individual demographic and verbal autopsy (VA) data from 22 INDEPTH sites were collated into a standardised database. The INDEPTH 2013 population was used for standardisation. The WHO 2012 VA standard and the InterVA-4 model were used for assigning cause of death.

RESULTS

A total of 111,910 deaths occurring over 12,204,043 person-years (accumulated between 1992 and 2012) were registered across the 22 sites, and for 98,429 of these deaths (88.0%) verbal autopsies were successfully completed. There was considerable variation in all-cause mortality between sites, with most of the differences being accounted for by variations in infectious causes as a proportion of all deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

This dataset documents individual deaths across Africa and Asia in a standardised way, and on an unprecedented scale. While INDEPTH sites are not constructed to constitute a representative sample, and VA may not be the ideal method of determining cause of death, nevertheless these findings represent detailed mortality patterns for parts of the world that are severely under-served in terms of measuring mortality. Further papers explore details of mortality patterns among children and specifically for NCDs, external causes, pregnancy-related mortality, malaria, and HIV/AIDS. Comparisons will also be made where possible with other findings on mortality in the same regions. Findings presented here and in accompanying papers support the need for continued work towards much wider implementation of universal civil registration of deaths by cause on a worldwide basis.