Estimated Zika virus importations to Europe by travellers from Brazil

Temporal variations in international air travel: implications for modelling the spread of infectious diseases

BACKGROUND

The international flight network creates multiple routes by which pathogens can quickly spread across the globe. In the early stages of infectious disease outbreaks, analyses using flight passenger data to identify countries at risk of importing the pathogen are common and can help inform disease control efforts. A challenge faced in this modelling is that the latest aviation statistics (referred to as contemporary data) are typically not immediately available. Therefore, flight patterns from a previous year are often used (referred to as historical data). We explored the suitability of historical data for predicting the spatial spread of emerging epidemics.

METHODS

We analysed monthly flight passenger data from the International Air Transport Association to assess how baseline air travel patterns were affected by outbreaks of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), Zika and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) over the past decade. We then used a stochastic discrete time susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) metapopulation model to simulate the global spread of different pathogens, comparing how epidemic dynamics differed in simulations based on historical and contemporary data.

RESULTS

We observed local, short-term disruptions to air travel from South Korea and Brazil for the MERS and Zika outbreaks we studied, whereas global and longer-term flight disruptions occurred during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. For outbreak events that were accompanied by local, small and short-term changes in air travel, epidemic models using historical flight data gave similar projections of the timing and locations of disease spread as when using contemporary flight data. However, historical data were less reliable to model the spread of an atypical outbreak such as SARS-CoV-2, in which there were durable and extensive levels of global travel disruption.

CONCLUSION

The use of historical flight data as a proxy in epidemic models is an acceptable practice, except in rare, large epidemics that lead to substantial disruptions to international travel.

Vector Surveillance, Host Species Richness, and Demographic Factors as West Nile Disease Risk Indicators

West Nile virus (WNV) is the most common arthropod-borne virus (arbovirus) in the United States (US) and is the leading cause of viral encephalitis in the country. The virus has affected tens of thousands of US persons total since its 1999 North America introduction, with thousands of new infections reported annually. Approximately 1% of humans infected with WNV acquire neuroinvasive West Nile Disease (WND) with severe encephalitis and risk of death. Research describing WNV ecology is needed to improve public health surveillance, monitoring, and risk assessment. We applied Bayesian joint-spatiotemporal modeling to assess the association of vector surveillance data, host species richness, and a variety of other environmental and socioeconomic disease risk factors with neuroinvasive WND throughout the conterminous US. Our research revealed that an aging human population was the strongest disease indicator, but climatic and vector-host biotic interactions were also significant in determining risk of neuroinvasive WND. Our analysis also identified a geographic region of disproportionately high neuroinvasive WND disease risk that parallels the Continental Divide, and extends southward from the US-Canada border in the states of Montana, North Dakota, and Wisconsin to the US-Mexico border in western Texas. Our results aid in unraveling complex WNV ecology and can be applied to prioritize disease surveillance locations and risk assessment.

A review of models applied to the geographic spread of Zika virus

In recent years, Zika virus (ZIKV) has expanded its geographic range and in 2015–2016 caused a substantial epidemic linked to a surge in developmental and neurological complications in newborns. Mathematical models are powerful tools for assessing ZIKV spread and can reveal important information for preventing future outbreaks. We reviewed the literature and retrieved modelling studies that were developed to understand the spatial epidemiology of ZIKV spread and risk. We classified studies by type, scale, aim and applications and discussed their characteristics, strengths and limitations. We examined the main objectives of these models and evaluated the effectiveness of integrating epidemiological and phylogeographic data, along with socioenvironmental risk factors that are known to contribute to vector–human transmission. We also assessed the promising application of human mobility data as a real-time indicator of ZIKV spread. Lastly, we summarised model validation methods used in studies to ensure accuracy in models and modelled outcomes. Models are helpful for understanding ZIKV spread and their characteristics should be carefully considered when developing future modelling studies to improve arbovirus surveillance.

Air Passenger Travel and International Surveillance Data Predict Spatiotemporal Variation in Measles Importations to the United States

Measles incidence in the United States has grown dramatically, as vaccination rates are declining and transmission internationally is on the rise. Because imported cases are necessary drivers of outbreaks in non-endemic settings, predicting measles outbreaks in the US depends on predicting imported cases. To assess the predictability of imported measles cases, we performed a regression of imported measles cases in the US against an inflow variable that combines air travel data with international measles surveillance data. To understand the contribution of each data type to these predictions, we repeated the regression analysis with alternative versions of the inflow variable that replaced each data type with averaged values and with versions of the inflow variable that used modeled inputs. We assessed the performance of these regression models using correlation, coverage probability, and area under the curve statistics, including with resampling and cross-validation. Our regression model had good predictive ability with respect to the presence or absence of imported cases in a given state in a given year (area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.78) and the magnitude of imported cases (Pearson correlation = 0.84). By comparing alternative versions of the inflow variable averaging over different inputs, we found that both air travel data and international surveillance data contribute to the model's ability to predict numbers of imported cases and individually contribute to its ability to predict the presence or absence of imported cases. Predicted sources of imported measles cases varied considerably across years and US states, depending on which countries had high measles activity in a given year. Our results emphasize the importance of the relationship between global connectedness and the spread of measles. This study provides a framework for predicting and understanding imported case dynamics that could inform future studies and outbreak prevention efforts.

Public health emergencies of international concern: a historic overview

RATIONALE

The International Health Regulations (IHR) have been the governing framework for global health security since 2007. Declaring public health emergencies of international concern (PHEIC) is a cornerstone of the IHR. Here we review how PHEIC are formally declared, the diseases for which such declarations have been made from 2007 to 2020 and justifications for such declarations.

KEY FINDINGS

Six events were declared PHEIC between 2007 and 2020: the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, Ebola (West African outbreak 2013-2015, outbreak in Democratic Republic of Congo 2018-2020), poliomyelitis (2014 to present), Zika (2016) and COVID-19 (2020 to present). Poliomyelitis is the longest PHEIC. Zika was the first PHEIC for an arboviral disease. For several other emerging diseases a PHEIC was not declared despite the fact that the public health impact of the event was considered serious and associated with potential for international spread.

RECOMMENDATIONS

The binary nature of a PHEIC declaration is often not helpful for events where a tiered or graded approach is needed. The strength of PHEIC declarations is the ability to rapidly mobilize international coordination, streamline funding and accelerate the advancement of the development of vaccines, therapeutics and diagnostics under emergency use authorization. The ultimate purpose of such declaration is to catalyse timely evidence-based action, to limit the public health and societal impacts of emerging and re-emerging disease risks while preventing unwarranted travel and trade restrictions.

ZikaPLAN: addressing the knowledge gaps and working towards a research preparedness network in the Americas

Zika Preparedness Latin American Network (ZikaPLAN) is a research consortium funded by the European Commission to address the research gaps in combating Zika and to establish a sustainable network with research capacity building in the Americas. Here we present a report on ZikaPLAN`s mid-term achievements since its initiation in October 2016 to June 2019, illustrating the research objectives of the 15 work packages ranging from virology, diagnostics, entomology and vector control, modelling to clinical cohort studies in pregnant women and neonates, as well as studies on the neurological complications of Zika infections in adolescents and adults. For example, the Neuroviruses Emerging in the Americas Study (NEAS) has set up more than 10 clinical sites in Colombia. Through the Butantan Phase 3 dengue vaccine trial, we have access to samples of 17,000 subjects in 14 different geographic locations in Brazil. To address the lack of access to clinical samples for diagnostic evaluation, ZikaPLAN set up a network of quality sites with access to well-characterized clinical specimens and capacity for independent evaluations. The International Committee for Congenital Anomaly Surveillance Tools was formed with global representation from regional networks conducting birth defects surveillance. We have collated a comprehensive inventory of resources and tools for birth defects surveillance, and developed an App for low resource regions facilitating the coding and description of all major externally visible congenital anomalies including congenital Zika syndrome. Research Capacity Network (REDe) is a shared and open resource centre where researchers and health workers can access tools, resources and support, enabling better and more research in the region. Addressing the gap in research capacity in LMICs is pivotal in ensuring broad-based systems to be prepared for the next outbreak. Our shared and open research space through REDe will be used to maximize the transfer of research into practice by summarizing the research output and by hosting the tools, resources, guidance and recommendations generated by these studies. Leveraging on the research from this consortium, we are working towards a research preparedness network.

A scoping review of importation and predictive models related to vector-borne diseases, pathogens, reservoirs, or vectors (1999-2016)

BACKGROUND

As globalization and climate change progress, the expansion and introduction of vector-borne diseases (VBD) from endemic regions to non-endemic regions is expected to occur. Mathematical and statistical models can be useful in predicting when and where these changes in distribution may happen. Our objective was to conduct a scoping review to identify and characterize predictive and importation models related to vector-borne diseases that exist in the global literature.

METHODS

A literature search was conducted to identify publications published between 1999 and 2016 from five scientific databases using relevant keywords. All publications had to be in English or French, and include a predictive or importation model on VBDs, pathogens, reservoirs and/or vectors. Relevance screening and data characterization were performed by two reviewers using pretested forms. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics.

RESULTS

The search initially identified 19 710 unique articles, reports, and conference abstracts. This was reduced to 428 relevant documents after relevance screening and data charting. About half of the models used mathematical techniques, and the remainder were statistical. Most of the models were predictive (87%), rather than importation (5%). The most commonly investigated diseases were malaria and dengue fever. Around 12% of the publications did not report all the parameters used in their model. Only 29% of the models incorporated the impacts of climate change.

CONCLUSIONS

A wide variety of mathematical and statistical models on vector-borne diseases exist. Researchers creating their own mathematical and/or statistical models may be able to use this scoping review to be informed about the diseases and/or regions, parameters, model types, and methodologies used in published models.

Risk of yellow fever virus importation into the United States from Brazil, outbreak years 2016-2017 and 2017-2018

Southeast Brazil has experienced two large yellow fever (YF) outbreaks since 2016. While the 2016–2017 outbreak mainly affected the states of Espírito Santo and Minas Gerais, the 2017–2018 YF outbreak primarily involved the states of Minas Gerais, São Paulo, and Rio de Janeiro, the latter two of which are highly populated and popular destinations for international travelers. This analysis quantifies the risk of YF virus (YFV) infected travelers arriving in the United States via air travel from Brazil, including both incoming Brazilian travelers and returning US travelers. We assumed that US travelers were subject to the same daily risk of YF infection as Brazilian residents. During both YF outbreaks in Southeast Brazil, three international airports—Miami, New York-John F. Kennedy, and Orlando—had the highest risk of receiving a traveler infected with YFV. Most of the risk was observed among incoming Brazilian travelers. Overall, we found low risk of YFV introduction into the United States during the 2016–2017 and 2017–2018 outbreaks. Decision makers can use these results to employ the most efficient and least restrictive actions and interventions.

A systematic review and evaluation of Zika virus forecasting and prediction research during a public health emergency of international concern

INTRODUCTION

Epidemic forecasting and prediction tools have the potential to provide actionable information in the midst of emerging epidemics. While numerous predictive studies were published during the 2016-2017 Zika Virus (ZIKV) pandemic, it remains unknown how timely, reproducible, and actionable the information produced by these studies was.

METHODS

To improve the functional use of mathematical modeling in support of future infectious disease outbreaks, we conducted a systematic review of all ZIKV prediction studies published during the recent ZIKV pandemic using the PRISMA guidelines. Using MEDLINE, EMBASE, and grey literature review, we identified studies that forecasted, predicted, or simulated ecological or epidemiological phenomena related to the Zika pandemic that were published as of March 01, 2017. Eligible studies underwent evaluation of objectives, data sources, methods, timeliness, reproducibility, accessibility, and clarity by independent reviewers.

RESULTS

2034 studies were identified, of which n = 73 met the eligibility criteria. Spatial spread, R0 (basic reproductive number), and epidemic dynamics were most commonly predicted, with few studies predicting Guillain-Barré Syndrome burden (4%), sexual transmission risk (4%), and intervention impact (4%). Most studies specifically examined populations in the Americas (52%), with few African-specific studies (4%). Case count (67%), vector (41%), and demographic data (37%) were the most common data sources. Real-time internet data and pathogen genomic information were used in 7% and 0% of studies, respectively, and social science and behavioral data were typically absent in modeling efforts. Deterministic models were favored over stochastic approaches. Forty percent of studies made model data entirely available, 29% provided all relevant model code, 43% presented uncertainty in all predictions, and 54% provided sufficient methodological detail to allow complete reproducibility. Fifty-one percent of predictions were published after the epidemic peak in the Americas. While the use of preprints improved the accessibility of ZIKV predictions by a median of 119 days sooner than journal publication dates, they were used in only 30% of studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Many ZIKV predictions were published during the 2016-2017 pandemic. The accessibility, reproducibility, timeliness, and incorporation of uncertainty in these published predictions varied and indicates there is substantial room for improvement. To enhance the utility of analytical tools for outbreak response it is essential to improve the sharing of model data, code, and preprints for future outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics.

The use and reporting of airline passenger data for infectious disease modelling: a systematic review

BackgroundA variety of airline passenger data sources are used for modelling the international spread of infectious diseases. Questions exist regarding the suitability and validity of these sources.AimWe conducted a systematic review to identify the sources of airline passenger data used for these purposes and to assess validation of the data and reproducibility of the methodology.MethodsArticles matching our search criteria and describing a model of the international spread of human infectious disease, parameterised with airline passenger data, were identified. Information regarding type and source of airline passenger data used was collated and the studies' reproducibility assessed.ResultsWe identified 136 articles. The majority (n = 96) sourced data primarily used by the airline industry. Governmental data sources were used in 30 studies and data published by individual airports in four studies. Validation of passenger data was conducted in only seven studies. No study was found to be fully reproducible, although eight were partially reproducible.LimitationsBy limiting the articles to international spread, articles focussed on within-country transmission even if they used relevant data sources were excluded. Authors were not contacted to clarify their methods. Searches were limited to articles in PubMed, Web of Science and Scopus.ConclusionWe recommend greater efforts to assess validity and biases of airline passenger data used for modelling studies, particularly when model outputs are to inform national and international public health policies. We also recommend improving reporting standards and more detailed studies on biases in commercial and open-access data to assess their reproducibility.

Modelling an optimum vaccination strategy against ZIKA virus for outbreak use

We present a model to optimise a vaccination campaign aiming to prevent or to curb a Zika virus outbreak. We show that the optimum vaccination strategy to reduce the number of cases by a mass vaccination campaign should start when the Aedes mosquitoes' density reaches the threshold of 1.5 mosquitoes per humans, the moment the reproduction number crosses one. The maximum time it is advisable to wait for the introduction of a vaccination campaign is when the first ZIKV case is identified, although this would not be as effective to minimise the number of infections as when the mosquitoes' density crosses the critical threshold. This suboptimum strategy, however, would still curb the outbreak. In both cases, the catch up strategy should aim to vaccinate at least 25% of the target population during a concentrated effort of 1 month immediately after identifying the threshold. This is the time taken to accumulate the herd immunity threshold of 56.5%. These calculations were done based on theoretical assumptions that vaccine implementation would be feasible within a very short time frame.

Longitudinal monitoring of environmental factors at Culicidae larval habitats in urban areas and their association with various mosquito species using an innovative strategy

BACKGROUND

To prevent the risk of mosquito-borne disease outbreaks, larval source management remains the most sustainable and effective mosquito control strategy. The present study aimed to determine the influence of environmental characteristics of mosquito larval habitats in an urban area of Marseille, France. Fourteen sites containing water were monitored every 2 weeks from May to October 2015 for mosquito species occurrence and larval density, and environmental parameters were measured at each visit. Rapid and accurate species identification of mosquito larvae was performed using an innovative MALDI-TOF MS method.

RESULTS

A total of 6753 larvae (L1-L4) and pupae were collected, of which 35.8% (n = 2418) were speciated using MALDI-TOF MS. Correct identifications were obtained for 2259 specimens (93.4%). A total of five mosquito species were found, including Aedes (Ae.) albopictus, Culex (Cx.) p. pipiens, Cx. hortensis, Cx. impudicus, and Culiseta (Cs.) longiareolata. Larvae of the Culex genus were predominant in both density and distribution. Small, shaded pools of shallow water favored Ae. albopictus colonization, whereas the wide distribution of Cx. p. pipiens demonstrated that this species was weakly influenced by environmental changes.

CONCLUSIONS

The present work confirms that MALDI-TOF MS is a useful tool for mosquito speciation and suggests that understanding the environmental factors associated with the occurrence and density of mosquito species at the larval stage in Marseille may aid in the future implementation of mosquito control programs. © 2018 Society of Chemical Industry.

Knowledge, attitudes, and practices of public secondary school teachers on Zika Virus Disease: A basis for the development of evidence-based Zika educational materials for schools in the Philippines

The Philippines is at risk in developing a Zika Virus (ZIKV) Disease Outbreak. One of the possible interventions is health education because students are potential health advocates and influencers to their communities through the knowledge transfers from their teachers. The competency of Filipino teachers on ZIKV Disease is yet to be described. This study aimed to assess the knowledge, attitudes, and practices of public secondary school teachers on ZIKV Disease. A modified version of the Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices Survey Tool on Zika Virus Disease from the World Health Organization—Pan American Health Organization (WHO-PAHO) was used to assess the knowledge, attitudes, and practices of teachers of eight public secondary schools in five villages in Quezon City, Philippines. Out of the 609 respondents, 87.3% reported that their main source of information about ZIKV is tri-media, which includes television, print, and radio. Majority of the respondents mentioned that ZIKV is transmitted through a mosquito bite (80.3%). However, only half of the participants identified vector control as a preventive strategy. Moreover, only 54% admitted to have cleaned their water containers or water sources within the last week. Only a few identified mother-to-child (23%) and sexual intercourse (8%) as other means of transmission. Half (49.8%) of the respondents felt that it is possible to acquire ZIKV in their community, while 90% perceived that a private doctor (90%) or a public hospital (88%) can effectively treat the disease. Perceived stigma is high at 50%. This study showed there was good knowledge among teachers on vector transmission of ZIKV but poor knowledge on other aspects of the disease. Also, there was a low level of perceived susceptibility and severity of ZIKV which can be explained by the absence of a personal encounter with a Zika patient and the low number of cases in the Philippines. Half of the respondents said that they cleaned the possible mosquito breeding sites within the last week, followed by those who cleaned their water source more than a week ago (19%). None of the socio-demographic characteristics is significantly associated with respondents’ knowledge on Zika. Only income and location of residence were found to be significantly associated with attitudes towards Zika. These findings call for a comprehensive training program that includes development of teaching materials for public secondary school teachers on ZIKV Disease based from this study.

Host target-based approaches against arboviral diseases

In the 20th century, socioeconomic and environmental changes facilitated the reintroduction of mosquitoes in developing cities, resulting in the reinsertion of mosquito-borne viral diseases and the dispersal of their causative agents on a worldwide scale. Recurrent outbreaks of arboviral diseases are being reported, even in regions without a previous history of arboviral disease transmission. Of note, arboviral infections represented approximately 30% of all emerging vector-borne diseases in the last decade. Therapeutic strategies against infectious viral diseases include the use of different classes of molecules that act directly on the pathogen and/or act by optimizing the host immune response. Drugs targeting the virus usually provide amelioration of symptoms by suppressing and controlling the infection. However, it is limited by the short-window of effectiveness, ineffectiveness against latent viruses, development of drug-resistant mutants and toxic side effects. Disease may also be a consequence of an excessive, uncontrolled or misplaced inflammatory response, treatments that interfere in host immune response are interesting options and can be used isolated or in combination with virus-targeted therapies. The use of host-targeted therapies requires specific knowledge regarding host immune patterns that may trigger dengue virus (DENV), chikungunya virus (CHIKV) or Zika virus (ZIKV) disease.

Seasonal and interannual risks of dengue introduction from South-East Asia into China, 2005-2015

Due to worldwide increased human mobility, air-transportation data and mathematical models have been widely used to measure risks of global dispersal of pathogens. However, the seasonal and interannual risks of pathogens importation and onward transmission from endemic countries have rarely been quantified and validated. We constructed a modelling framework, integrating air travel, epidemiological, demographical, entomological and meteorological data, to measure the seasonal probability of dengue introduction from endemic countries. This framework has been applied retrospectively to elucidate spatiotemporal patterns and increasing seasonal risk of dengue importation from South-East Asia into China via air travel in multiple populations, Chinese travelers and local residents, over a decade of 2005-15. We found that the volume of airline travelers from South-East Asia into China has quadrupled from 2005 to 2015 with Chinese travelers increased rapidly. Following the growth of air traffic, the probability of dengue importation from South-East Asia into China has increased dramatically from 2005 to 2015. This study also revealed seasonal asymmetries of transmission routes: Sri Lanka and Maldives have emerged as origins; neglected cities at central and coastal China have been increasingly vulnerable to dengue importation and onward transmission. Compared to the monthly occurrence of dengue reported in China, our model performed robustly for importation and onward transmission risk estimates. The approach and evidence could facilitate to understand and mitigate the changing seasonal threat of arbovirus from endemic regions.

A conceptual model for optimizing vaccine coverage to reduce vector-borne infections in the presence of antibody-dependent enhancement

Background

Many vector-borne diseases co-circulate, as the viruses from the same family are also transmitted by the same vector species. For example, Zika and dengue viruses belong to the same Flavivirus family and are primarily transmitted by a common mosquito species Aedes aegypti. Zika outbreaks have also commonly occurred in dengue-endemic areas, and co-circulation and co-infection of both viruses have been reported. As recent immunological cross-reactivity studies have confirmed that convalescent plasma following dengue infection can enhance Zika infection, and as global efforts of developing dengue and Zika vaccines are intensified, it is important to examine whether and how vaccination against one disease in a large population may affect infection dynamics of another disease due to antibody-dependent enhancement.

Methods

Through a conceptual co-infection dynamics model parametrized by reported dengue and Zika epidemic and immunological cross-reactivity characteristics, we evaluate impact of a hypothetical dengue vaccination program on Zika infection dynamics in a single season when only one particular dengue serotype is involved.

Results

We show that an appropriately designed and optimized dengue vaccination program can not only help control the dengue spread but also, counter-intuitively, reduce Zika infections. We identify optimal dengue vaccination coverages for controlling dengue and simultaneously reducing Zika infections, as well as the critical coverages exceeding which dengue vaccination will increase Zika infections.

Conclusion

This study based on a conceptual model shows the promise of an integrative vector-borne disease control strategy involving optimal vaccination programs, in regions where different viruses or different serotypes of the same virus co-circulate, and convalescent plasma following infection from one virus (serotype) can enhance infection against another virus (serotype). The conceptual model provides a first step towards well-designed regional and global vector-borne disease immunization programs.

Mobile based surveillance platform for detecting Zika virus among Spanish Delegates attending the Rio de Janeiro Olympic Games

BACKGROUND

Zika virus has created a major epidemic in Central and South America, especially in Brazil, during 2015-16. The infection is strongly associated with fetal malformations, mainly microcephaly, and neurological symptoms in adults. During the preparation of the Rio de Janeiro Olympic Games in 2016, members of Olympic Delegations worldwide expressed their concern about the health consequences of being infected with Zika virus. A major risk highlighted by the scientific community was the impact on the spreading of the virus into new territories immediately after the Games.

OBJECTIVES

To detect real-time incidence of symptoms compatible with arboviral diseases and other tropical imported diseases among the Spanish Olympic Delegation (SOD) attending the Rio Olympic Games in 2016.

METHODS

We developed a surveillance platform based on a mobile application installed in participant's smartphones that monitored the health status of the SOD through a daily interactive check of the user health status including geo-localization data. The results were evaluated by a study physician on-call through a web-based platform monitoring system. Participants presenting severe symptoms or those compatible with Zika infection prompted an alarm in the system triggering specialized medical assistance and allowing early detection and control of the introduction of arboviral diseases in Spain.

SUMMARY OF THE RESULTS

The system was downloaded by 189 participants and used by 143 of them (76%). Median age was 38 years (IQR 16), and 134 (71%) were male. Mean duration of travel was 19 days (+/-9SD). During the Games the highest accumulated incidence observed was for headache: 6.06% cough: 5.30% and conjunctivitis: 3.03%. The incidence rate of cough during the Olympic Games was 1.1% per day per person, followed by headache 0.8% and 0.4% conjunctivitis or diarrhea. In our cohort we observed that non-athletes experienced more incidence of symptoms, except for incidence of cough which was the same in the two groups (1.1%). No participants reported symptoms fulfilling Zika definition case.

CONCLUSION

Our system did not find cases fulfilling Zika definition amongst participants of the SOD during the Games, consistent with limited cases of Zika in Rio during the Games. The app showed good usability and the web based monitoring platform allowed to manage infectious cases in real-time. The overall system has proven to serve as a real-time surveillance platform for detecting symptoms that could be present in tropical imported diseases, especially arboviral diseases, contributing to the preparedness for the introduction of vector borne-diseases in non-endemic countries.

Zika virus infection in the returning traveller: what every neurologist should know

Zika virus has been associated with a wide range of neurological complications. Neurologists in areas without current active transmission of the virus may be confronted with Zika-associated neurological disease, as a large number of returning travellers with Zika virus infection have been reported and the virus continues to spread to previously unaffected regions. This review provides an overview of Zika virus-associated neurological disease and aims to support neurologists who may encounter patients returning from endemic areas.

Zika in travellers 1947-2017: a systematic review

INTRODUCTION

Travellers contributed substantially to the rapid spread of Zika virus (ZIKV). They act as sentinel and may unmask ongoing ZIKV transmission in countries where outbreaks have not yet been reported. Our objectives were to (i) describe the burden of ZIKV infections in international travellers over time; (ii) estimate the proportion of birth defects as a result of maternal ZIKV infection in travellers; (iii) track the extent of sexual transmission; (iv) summarize ZIKV infections in returning travellers as reported by the GeoSentinel network; and (v) identify countries without reports on local ZIKV transmission where travellers served as sentinel.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review from 1947 to April 2017 on travel-associated ZIKV infections. We also compared published reports on autochthonous ZIKV transmission in Asia with published reports on exportations from travellers in Asia.

RESULTS

Of 314 papers that fit the inclusion criteria, 61 were eligible for final analysis. There was an exponential increase in the number of reported ZIKV infected travellers from the years 2013 to 2016, which declined in 2017. Amongst pregnant women with ZIKV infection, (5%) resulted in a fetus or infant with ZIKV-associated birth defects. An estimated 1% of the total number of ZIKV cases reported in the USA and Europe were acquired through sexual transmission. Through the GeoSentinel network, five countries (Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, Cameroon) were identified as sentinel markers where ZIKV was exported despite the absence of reported local transmission.

CONCLUSIONS

Mobility patterns and travel volumes can help to identify the most likely origin of importation, and also in predicting further propagation. Studies on pregnant returning travellers have contributed to a better understanding of the risk estimates of congenital Zika syndrome/microcephaly as a result of maternal ZIKV infection, and the relative contribution of sexual transmisison.

Guillain-Barré syndrome and Zika virus outbreaks

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Arboviruses have been associated with central and peripheral nervous system injuries, in special the flaviviruses. Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS), transverse myelitis, meningoencephalitis, ophthalmological manifestations, and other neurological complications have been recently associated to Zika virus (ZIKV) infection. In this review, we aim to analyze the epidemiological aspects, possible pathophysiology, and what we have learned about the clinical and laboratory findings, as well as treatment of patients with ZIKV-associated neurological complications.

RECENT FINDINGS

In the last decades, case series have suggested a possible link between flaviviruses and development of GBS. Recently, large outbreaks of ZIKV infection in Asia and the Americas have led to an increased incidence of GBS in these territories. Rapidly, several case reports and case series have reported an increase of all clinical forms and electrophysiological patterns of GBS, also including cases with associated central nervous system involvement. Finally, cases suggestive of acute transient polyneuritis, as well as acute and progressive postinfectious neuropathies associated to ZIKV infection have been reported, questioning the usually implicated mechanisms of neuronal injury.

SUMMARY

The recent ZIKV outbreaks have triggered the occurrence of a myriad of neurological manifestations likely associated to this arbovirosis, in special GBS and its variants.

Estimating the probability of dengue virus introduction and secondary autochthonous cases in Europe

Given the speed of air travel, diseases even with a short viremia such as dengue can be easily exported to dengue naïve areas within 24 hours. We set out to estimate the risk of dengue virus introductions via travelers into Europe and number of secondary autochthonous cases as a result of the introduction. We applied mathematical modeling to estimate the number of dengue-viremic air passengers from 16 dengue-endemic countries to 27 European countries, taking into account the incidence of dengue in the exporting countries, travel volume and the probability of being viremic at the time of travel. Our models estimate a range from zero to 167 air passengers who are dengue-viremic at the time of travel from dengue endemic countries to each of the 27 receiving countries in one year. Germany receives the highest number of imported dengue-viremic air passengers followed by France and the United Kingdom. Our findings estimate 10 autochthonous secondary asymptomatic and symptomatic dengue infections, caused by the expected 124 infected travelers who arrived in Italy in 2012. The risk of onward transmission in Europe is reassuringly low, except where Aedes aegypti is present.

Zika virus RNA polymerase chain reaction on the utility channel of a commercial nucleic acid testing system

BACKGROUND

Several countries have implemented safety strategies to reduce the risk of Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission through blood transfusion. These strategies have included nucleic acid amplification testing (NAT) of blood donations. In this study, a new real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay including internal control for the detection of ZIKV on the cobas omni Utility Channel (UC) on the cobas 6800 system is presented.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

PCR conditions and primer/probe concentrations were optimized on the LightCycler 480 instrument. Optimized conditions were transferred to the cobas omni UC on the cobas 6800 system. Subsequently, the limit of detection (LOD) in plasma and urine, genotype inclusivity, specificity, cross-reactivity, and clinical sensitivity were determined.

RESULTS

The 95% LOD of the ZIKV PCR assay on the cobas 6800 system was 23.0 IU/mL (95% confidence interval [CI], 16.5-37.5) in plasma and 24.5 IU/mL (95% CI, 13.4-92.9) in urine. The assay detected African and Asian lineages of ZIKV. The specificity was 100%. The clinical concordance between the newly developed ZIKV PCR assay and the investigational Roche cobas Zika NAT test was 83% (24/29).

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a sensitive ZIKV PCR assay on the cobas omni UC on the cobas 6800 system. The assay can be used for large-scale screening of blood donations for ZIKV or for testing of blood donors returning from areas with ZIKV to avoid temporal deferral. This study also demonstrates that the cobas omni UC on the cobas 6800 system can be used for in-house-developed PCR assays.

Novel tools for the surveillance and control of dengue: findings by the DengueTools research consortium

BACKGROUND

Dengue fever persists as a major global disease burden, and may increase as a consequence of climate change. Along with other measures, research actions to improve diagnosis, surveillance, prevention, and predictive models are highly relevant. The European Commission funded the DengueTools consortium to lead a major initiative in these areas, and this review synthesises the outputs and findings of this work conducted from 2011 to 2016. Research areas: DengueTools organised its work into three research areas, namely [1] Early warning and surveillance systems; [2] Strategies to prevent dengue in children; and [3] Predictive models for the global spread of dengue. Research area 1 focused on case-studies undertaken in Sri Lanka, including developing laboratory-based sentinel surveillance, evaluating economic impact, identifying drivers of transmission intensity, evaluating outbreak prediction capacity and developing diagnostic capacity. Research area 2 addressed preventing dengue transmission in school children, with case-studies undertaken in Thailand. Insecticide-treated school uniforms represented an intriguing potential approach, with some encouraging results, but which were overshadowed by a lack of persistence of insecticide on the uniforms with repeated washing. Research area 3 evaluated potential global spread of dengue, particularly into dengue-naïve areas such as Europe. The role of international travel, changing boundaries of vectors, developing models of vectorial capacity under different climate change scenarios and strategies for vector control in outbreaks was all evaluated.

CONCLUDING REMARKS

DengueTools was able to make significant advances in methods for understanding and controlling dengue transmission in a range of settings. These will have implications for public health agendas to counteract dengue, including vaccination programmes.

OUTLOOK

Towards the end of the DengueTools project, Zika virus emerged as an unexpected epidemic in the central and southern America. Given the similarities between the dengue and Zika viruses, with vectors in common, some of the DengueTools thinking translated readily into the Zika situation.

Quantifying Zika: Advancing the Epidemiology of Zika With Quantitative Models

When Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged in the Americas, little was known about its biology, pathogenesis, and transmission potential, and the scope of the epidemic was largely hidden, owing to generally mild infections and no established surveillance systems. Surges in congenital defects and Guillain-Barré syndrome alerted the world to the danger of ZIKV. In the context of limited data, quantitative models were critical in reducing uncertainties and guiding the global ZIKV response. Here, we review some of the models used to assess the risk of ZIKV-associated severe outcomes, the potential speed and size of ZIKV epidemics, and the geographic distribution of ZIKV risk. These models provide important insights and highlight significant unresolved questions related to ZIKV and other emerging pathogens.

ZikaPLAN: Zika Preparedness Latin American Network

The ongoing Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak in Latin America, the Caribbean, and the Pacific Islands has underlined the need for a coordinated research network across the whole region that can respond rapidly to address the current knowledge gaps in Zika and enhance research preparedness beyond Zika. The European Union under its Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme awarded three research consortia to respond to this need. Here we present the ZikaPLAN (Zika Preparedness Latin American Network) consortium. ZikaPLAN combines the strengths of 25 partners in Latin America, North America, Africa, Asia, and various centers in Europe. We will conduct clinical studies to estimate the risk and further define the full spectrum and risk factors of congenital Zika virus syndrome (including neurodevelopmental milestones in the first 3 years of life), delineate neurological complications associated with ZIKV due to direct neuroinvasion and immune-mediated responses in older children and adults, and strengthen surveillance for birth defects and Guillain-Barré Syndrome. Laboratory-based research to unravel neurotropism and investigate the role of sexual transmission, determinants of severe disease, and viral fitness will underpin the clinical studies. Social messaging and engagement with affected communities, as well as development of wearable repellent technologies against Aedes mosquitoes will enhance the impact. Burden of disease studies, data-driven vector control, and vaccine modeling as well as risk assessments on geographic spread of ZIKV will form the foundation for evidence-informed policies. While addressing the research gaps around ZIKV, we will engage in capacity building in laboratory and clinical research, collaborate with existing and new networks to share knowledge, and work with international organizations to tackle regulatory and other bottlenecks and refine research priorities. In this way, we can leverage the ZIKV response toward building a long-term emerging infectious diseases response capacity in the region to address future challenges.

Systematic Review: Land Cover, Meteorological, and Socioeconomic Determinants of Aedes Mosquito Habitat for Risk Mapping

Asian tiger and yellow fever mosquitoes (Aedes albopictus and Ae. aegypti) are global nuisances and are competent vectors for viruses such as Chikungunya (CHIKV), Dengue (DV), and Zika (ZIKV). This review aims to analyze available spatiotemporal distribution models of Aedes mosquitoes and their influential factors. A combination of five sets of 3-5 keywords were used to retrieve all relevant published models. Five electronic search databases were used: PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus, and Google Scholar through 17 May 2017. We generated a hierarchical decision tree for article selection. We identified 21 relevant published studies that highlight different combinations of methodologies, models and influential factors. Only a few studies adopted a comprehensive approach highlighting the interaction between environmental, socioeconomic, meteorological and topographic systems. The selected articles showed inconsistent findings in terms of number and type of influential factors affecting the distribution of Aedes vectors, which is most likely attributed to: (i) limited availability of high-resolution data for physical variables, (ii) variation in sampling methods; Aedes feeding and oviposition behavior; (iii) data collinearity and statistical distribution of observed data. This review highlights the need and sets the stage for a rigorous multi-system modeling approach to improve our knowledge about Aedes presence/abundance within their flight range in response to the interaction between environmental, socioeconomic, and meteorological systems.

Surveillance of Zika virus infection in the EU/EEA, June 2015 to January 2017

Surveillance of Zika virus (ZIKV) infection in the European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA) was implemented in 2016 in response to the large outbreak reported in the Americas in 2015 associated with an increased number of infants born with microcephaly. Between June 2015 and January 2017, 21 EU/EEA countries reported 2,133 confirmed cases of ZIKV infection, of whom 106 were pregnant women. Cases infected in the Caribbean constituted 71% of reported cases. Almost all cases (99%) were most probably infected by mosquito bite during travel outside continental Europe, while only 1% were transmitted sexually. Considering that 584 imported cases were reported between May and October 2016 among residents of areas with established presence of Aedes albopictus, the absence of autochthonous vector-borne cases suggests that Ae. albopictus is not an efficient vector for ZIKV infection.

Zika Virus Screening among Spanish Team Members After 2016 Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Olympic Games

We evaluated the risk for the Spanish Olympic Team acquiring Zika virus in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during 2016. We recruited 117 team members, and all tested negative for Zika virus. Lack of cases in this cohort supports the minimum risk estimates made before the Games.

Importation of yellow fever into China: assessing travel patterns

Rapid increase in trade and a growing air passenger market encourages high travel volume between the regions associated with increasing risks of such importations including China. Eleven Chinese workers infected during the 2016 yellow fever (YF) outbreak in Angola imported YF into China highlighting the potential for spread into Asia. Using outbound and inbound travel data, we assessed travel patterns from and to YF endemic countries in relation to China. Among YF endemic countries, Angola has the second highest number of travellers into China and also receives the second highest number of Chinese visitors. We estimated that China needs around half a million YF vaccine doses to cover their population travelling to YF endemic countries. The recent importation cases into China also unmasked the low YF vaccination coverage among Chinese travellers and workers to Angola, indicating the need to ensure better adherence to the International Health Regulations.

On the origin and timing of Zika virus introduction in Brazil

The timing and origin of Zika virus (ZIKV) introduction in Brazil has been the subject of controversy. Initially, it was assumed that the virus was introduced during the FIFA World Cup in June-July 2014. Then, it was speculated that ZIKV may have been introduced by athletes from French Polynesia (FP) who competed in a canoe race in Rio de Janeiro in August 2014. We attempted to apply mathematical models to determine the most likely time window of ZIKV introduction in Brazil. Given that the timing and origin of ZIKV introduction in Brazil may be a politically sensitive issue, its determination (or the provision of a plausible hypothesis) may help to prevent undeserved blame. We used a simple mathematical model to estimate the force of infection and the corresponding individual probability of being infected with ZIKV in FP. Taking into account the air travel volume from FP to Brazil between October 2013 and March 2014, we estimated the expected number of infected travellers arriving at Brazilian airports during that period. During the period between December 2013 and February 2014, 51 individuals travelled from FP airports to 11 Brazilian cities. Basing on the calculated force of ZIKV infection (the per capita rate of new infections per time unit) and risk of infection (probability of at least one new infection), we estimated that 18 (95% CI 12-22) individuals who arrived in seven of the evaluated cities were infected. When basic ZIKV reproduction numbers greater than one were assumed in the seven evaluated cities, ZIKV could have been introduced in any one of the cities. Based on the force of infection in FP, basic reproduction ZIKV number in selected Brazilian cities, and estimated travel volume, we concluded that ZIKV was most likely introduced and established in Brazil by infected travellers arriving from FP in the period between October 2013 and March 2014, which was prior to the two aforementioned sporting events.

Translation of Real-Time Infectious Disease Modeling into Routine Public Health Practice

Infectious disease dynamic modeling can support outbreak emergency responses. We conducted a workshop to canvas the needs of stakeholders in Australia for practical, real-time modeling tools for infectious disease emergencies. The workshop was attended by 29 participants who represented government, defense, general practice, and academia stakeholders. We found that modeling is underused in Australia and its potential is poorly understood by practitioners involved in epidemic responses. The development of better modeling tools is desired. Ideal modeling tools for operational use would be easy to use, clearly indicate underlying parameterization and assumptions, and assist with policy and decision making.

An outbreak vector-host epidemic model with spatial structure: the 2015-2016 Zika outbreak in Rio De Janeiro

Background

A deterministic model is developed for the spatial spread of an epidemic disease in a geographical setting. The disease is borne by vectors to

susceptible hosts through criss-cross dynamics. The model is focused on an outbreak that arises from a small number of infected hosts imported into a subregion of the geographical setting. The goal is to understand how spatial heterogeneity of the vector and host populations influences the dynamics of the outbreak, in both the geographical spread and the final size of the epidemic.

Methods

Partial differential equations are formulated to describe the spatial interaction of the hosts and vectors. The partial differential equations have reaction-diffusion terms to describe the criss-cross interactions of hosts and vectors. The partial differential equations of the model are analyzed and proven to be well-posed. A local basic reproduction number for the epidemic is analyzed.

Results

The epidemic outcomes of the model are correlated to the spatially dependent parameters and initial conditions of the model. The partial differential equations of the model are adapted to seasonality of the vector population, and applied to the 2015–2016 Zika seasonal outbreak in Rio de Janeiro Municipality in Brazil.

Conclusions

The results for the model simulations of the 2015–2016 Zika seasonal outbreak in Rio de Janeiro Municipality indicate that the spatial distribution and final size of the epidemic at the end of the season are strongly dependent on the location and magnitude of local outbreaks at the beginning of the season. The application of the model to the Rio de Janeiro Municipality Zika 2015–2016 outbreak is limited by incompleteness of the epidemic data and by uncertainties in the parametric assumptions of the model.

Risk of Globalization of the Disease in Europe

Risk of dissemination of ZIKV disease is based on multiple factors, including environmental (climate, socioeconomically, deforestation or industrialization) and travel/traveller factors. Both the disease (viremic travellers) and vector movement to mosquito-free area contributes to the introduction and establishment of autochthonous ZIKV transmission. Mass gathering events can contribute to magnify transmission due to close crowd life in a confined area. Also, multitudinary events can promote the introduction of an infectious disease to a previously naïve area when returning home. Although mathematical models estimate a low risk for introduction of ZIKV in Europe, specific European regions (mainly Portuguese Island of Madeira) account with suitable and efficient vector and opportune climate conditions to harbour the disease. Clinicians should be aware to enable early detection of autochthonous ZIKV cases. International and local guidelines can help clinicians on how to handle suspicious cases, how to confirm the infection and how to report suspected and confirmed cases. In case of autochthonous ZIKV detection, public authorities should perform surveillance and provide adequate resources to sustain enhanced mosquito control.

Initial experience with imported Zika virus infection in Spain

INTRODUCTION

A considerable increase of imported Zika virus (ZIKV) infection has been reported in Europe in the last year. This is the result of the large outbreak of the disease in the Americas, along with the increase in the numbers of travellers and immigrants arriving from ZIKV endemic areas.

METHODS

A descriptive study was conducted in the Tropical Medicine Unit of Hospital La Paz-Carlos III in Madrid on travellers returning from an endemic area for ZIKV from January to April 2016. Demographic, clinical and microbiological data were analyzed.

RESULTS

A total of 185 patients were screened for ZIKV (59.9% women, median age of 37.7±10.3 years). Main purpose of the travel was tourism to Colombia, Brazil, and México. Just under three-quarters (73%) were symptomatic, mostly with fever and headache. A total of 13 patients (7% of those screened) were diagnosed with ZIKV infections, of which four of them were pregnant. All of them were symptomatic patients, the majority immigrants, and mainly from Colombia. Diagnostic tests were based on positive neutralization antibodies (8 cases, 61.6%) and a positive RT-PCR in different organic fluids (7 cases, 53.8%) The four infected pregnant women underwent a neurosonography every 3 weeks, and no alterations were detected. RT-PCR in amniotic fluid was performed in three of them, with negative results. One of the children has already been born healthy.

CONCLUSIONS

Our cases series represents the largest cohort of imported ZIKV to Spain described until now. Clinicians must increase awareness about the progression of the ZIKV outbreak and the affected areas so that they can include Zika virus infection in their differential diagnosis for travellers from those areas.

Navigating the Zika panic

The epidemics of Ebola virus in West Africa and Zika virus in America highlight how viruses can explosively emerge into new territories. These epidemics also exposed how unprepared we are to handle infectious disease emergencies. This is also true when we consider hypothesized new clinical features of infection, such as the associations between Zika virus infection and severe neurological disease, including microcephaly and Guillain-Barré syndrome. On the surface, these pathologies appear to be new features of Zika virus infection, however, causal relationships have not yet been established. Decades of limited Zika virus research are making us scramble to determine the true drivers behind the epidemic, often at the expense of over-speculation without credible evidence. Here we review the literature and find no conclusive evidence at this time for significant biological differences between the American Zika virus strains and those circulating elsewhere. Rather, the epidemic scale in the Americas may be facilitated by an abnormally warm climate, dense human and mosquito populations, and previous exposure to other viruses. Severe disease associated with Zika virus may therefore not be a new trait for the virus, rather it may have been overlooked due to previously small outbreaks. Much of the recent panic regarding Zika virus has been about the Olympics in Brazil. We do not find any substantial evidence that the Olympics will result in a significant number of new Zika virus infections (~10 predicted) or that the Olympics will promote further epidemic spread over what is already expected. The Zika virus epidemic in the Americas is a serious situation and decisions based on solid scientific evidence - not hyped media speculations - are required for effective outbreak response.

Bayesian coalescent inference reveals high evolutionary rates and diversification of Zika virus populations

Zika virus (ZIKV) is a member of the family Flaviviridae. In 2015, ZIKV triggered an epidemic in Brazil and spread across Latin America. By May of 2016, the World Health Organization warns over spread of ZIKV beyond this region. Detailed studies on the mode of evolution of ZIKV strains are extremely important for our understanding of the emergence and spread of ZIKV populations. In order to gain insight into these matters, a Bayesian coalescent Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis of complete genome sequences of recently isolated ZIKV strains was performed. The results of these studies revealed a mean rate of evolution of 1.20 × 10(-3) nucleotide substitutions per site per year (s/s/y) for ZIKV strains enrolled in this study. Several variants isolated in China are grouped together with all strains isolated in Latin America. Another genetic group composed exclusively by Chinese strains were also observed, suggesting the co-circulation of different genetic lineages in China. These findings indicate a high level of diversification of ZIKV populations. Strains isolated from microcephaly cases do not share amino acid substitutions, suggesting that other factors besides viral genetic differences may play a role for the proposed pathogenesis caused by ZIKV infection. J. Med. Virol. 88:1672-1676, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.