Impact of climate and mosquito vector abundance on sylvatic arbovirus circulation dynamics in Senegal

Bioecological Aspects of Species of the Subgenus Mansonia (Mansonia) (Diptera: Culicidae) Prior to the Installation of Hydroelectric Dams on the Madeira River, Rondônia State, Brazil

The objective of this study was to evaluate ecological aspects of Mansonia species before the construction of hydroelectric plants on the Madeira River, and thus enable the assessment of the impact of these projects on mosquitoes. A total of 199 samplings were carried out between November 2003 and August 2004, using the technique of attraction with protection. Temporal distribution was evaluated from monthly incidence values obtained from the bite index per man/hour. Relative abundance was subsequently calculated to evaluate the spatial distribution of species, according to land use and municipal districts; furthermore, the pattern of hematophagous activity was evaluated from 12-h and 4-h samplings. The data were analyzed according to the negative binomial distribution and generalized linear models to estimate the influence of environmental factors on the presence and abundance of Mansonia. A total of 1479 specimens were collected, distributed among four species-Mansonia titillans (87%), Mansonia humeralis (6.3%), Mansonia amazonensis (6%), and Mansonia indubitans (0.5%), and spatial distribution analysis showed Ma. titillans to be dominant. Hematophagous activity had peaks between 6:00 p.m. and 8:00 p.m. and species incidence was higher during the rainy season and in areas where domestic animals are raised. Therefore, the region studied presented characteristics favorable to the reproduction of Mansonia even before the construction of the hydroelectric plants and after construction, these conditions were enhanced, due to the increase in the availability of breeding sites for immatures and blood sources for females, as a consequence of changes in the environment.

Secondary vectors of Zika Virus, a systematic review of laboratory vector competence studies

BACKGROUND

After the unprecedented Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak in the western hemisphere from 2015-2018, Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are now well established primary and secondary ZIKV vectors, respectively. Consensus about identification and importance of other secondary ZIKV vectors remain. This systematic review aims to provide a list of vector species capable of transmitting ZIKV by reviewing evidence from laboratory vector competence (VC) studies and to identify key knowledge gaps and issues within the ZIKV VC literature.

METHODS

A search was performed until 15th March 2022 on the Cochrane Library, Lilacs, PubMed, Web of Science, WHOLIS and Google Scholar. The search strings included three general categories: 1) "ZIKA"; 2) "vector"; 3) "competence", "transmission", "isolation", or "feeding behavior" and their combinations. Inclusion and exclusion criteria has been predefined and quality of included articles was assessed by STROBE and STROME-ID criteria.

FINDINGS

From 8,986 articles retrieved, 2,349 non-duplicates were screened by title and abstracts,103 evaluated using the full text, and 45 included in this analysis. Main findings are 1) secondary vectors of interest include Ae. japonicus, Ae. detritus, and Ae. vexans at higher temperature 2) Culex quinquefasciatus was not found to be a competent vector of ZIKV, 3) considerable heterogeneity in VC, depending on the local mosquito strain and virus used in testing was observed. Critical issues or gaps identified included 1) inconsistent definitions of VC parameters across the literature; 2) equivalency of using different mosquito body parts to evaluate VC parameters for infection (mosquito bodies versus midguts), dissemination (heads, legs or wings versus salivary glands), and transmission (detection or virus amplification in saliva, FTA cards, transmission to neonatal mice); 3) articles that fail to use infectious virus assays to confirm the presence of live virus; 4) need for more studies using murine models with immunocompromised mice to infect mosquitoes.

CONCLUSION

Recent, large collaborative multi-country projects to conduct large scale evaluations of specific mosquito species represent the most appropriate approach to establish VC of mosquito species.

The First Case of Zika Virus Disease in Guinea: Description, Virus Isolation, Sequencing, and Seroprevalence in Local Population

The Zika virus (ZIKV) is a widespread mosquito-borne pathogen. Phylogenetically, two lineages of ZIKV are distinguished: African and Asian-American. The latter became the cause of the 2015-2016 pandemic, with severe consequences for newborns. In West African countries, the African lineage was found, but there is evidence of the emergence of the Asian-American lineage in Cape Verde and Angola. This highlights the need to not only monitor ZIKV but also sequence the isolates. In this article, we present a case report of Zika fever in a pregnant woman from Guinea identified in 2018. Viral RNA was detected through qRT-PCR in a serum sample. In addition, the seroconversion of anti-Zika IgM and IgG antibodies was detected in repeated blood samples. Subsequently, the virus was isolated from the C6/36 cell line. The detected ZIKV belonged to the African lineage, the Nigerian sublineage. The strains with the closest sequences were isolated from mosquitoes in Senegal in 2011 and 2015. In addition, we conducted the serological screening of 116 blood samples collected from patients presenting to the hospital of Faranah with fevers during the period 2018-2021. As a result, it was found that IgM-positive patients were identified each year and that the seroprevalence varied between 5.6% and 17.1%.

Humidity - The overlooked variable in the thermal biology of mosquito-borne disease

Vector-borne diseases cause significant financial and human loss, with billions of dollars spent on control. Arthropod vectors experience a complex suite of environmental factors that affect fitness, population growth and species interactions across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Temperature and water availability are two of the most important abiotic variables influencing their distributions and abundances. While extensive research on temperature exists, the influence of humidity on vector and pathogen parameters affecting disease dynamics are less understood. Humidity is often underemphasized, and when considered, is often treated as independent of temperature even though desiccation likely contributes to declines in trait performance at warmer temperatures. This Perspectives explores how humidity shapes the thermal performance of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission. We summarize what is known about its effects and propose a conceptual model for how temperature and humidity interact to shape the range of temperatures across which mosquitoes persist and achieve high transmission potential. We discuss how failing to account for these interactions hinders efforts to forecast transmission dynamics and respond to epidemics of mosquito-borne infections. We outline future research areas that will ground the effects of humidity on the thermal biology of pathogen transmission in a theoretical and empirical framework to improve spatial and temporal prediction of vector-borne pathogen transmission.

Suppression of flavivirus transmission from animal hosts to mosquitoes with a mosquito-delivered vaccine

Zoonotic viruses circulate in the natural reservoir and sporadically spill over into human populations, resulting in endemics or pandemics. We previously found that the Chaoyang virus (CYV), an insect-specific flavivirus (ISF), is replication-defective in vertebrate cells. Here, we develope a proof-of-concept mosquito-delivered vaccine to control the Zika virus (ZIKV) within inaccessible wildlife hosts using CYV as the vector. The vaccine is constructed by replacing the pre-membrane and envelope (prME) proteins of CYV with those of ZIKV, assigned as CYV-ZIKV. CYV-ZIKV replicates efficiently in Aedes mosquitoes and disseminates to the saliva, with no venereal or transovarial transmission observed. To reduce the risk of CYV-ZIKV leaking into the environment, mosquitoes are X-ray irradiated to ensure 100% infertility, which does not affect the titer of CYV-ZIKV in the saliva. Immunization of mice via CYV-ZIKV-carrying mosquito bites elicites robust and persistent ZIKV-specific immune responses and confers complete protection against ZIKV challenge. Correspondingly, the immunized mice could no longer transmit the challenged ZIKV to naïve mosquitoes. Therefore, immunization with an ISF-vectored vaccine via mosquito bites is feasible to induce herd immunity in wildlife hosts of ZIKV. Our study provides a future avenue for developing a mosquito-delivered vaccine to eliminate zoonotic viruses in the sylvatic cycle.

Evidence against Zika virus infection of pets and peri-domestic animals in Latin America and Africa

Decades after its discovery in East Africa, Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged in Brazil in 2013 and infected millions of people during intense urban transmission. Whether vertebrates other than humans are involved in ZIKV transmission cycles remained unclear. Here, we investigate the role of different animals as ZIKV reservoirs by testing 1723 sera of pets, peri-domestic animals and African non-human primates (NHP) sampled during 2013–2018 in Brazil and 2006–2016 in Côte d'Ivoire. Exhaustive neutralization testing substantiated co-circulation of multiple flaviviruses and failed to confirm ZIKV infection in pets or peri-domestic animals in Côte d'Ivoire (n=259) and Brazil (n=1416). In contrast, ZIKV seroprevalence was 22.2% (2/9, 95% CI, 2.8–60.1) in West African chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes verus) and 11.1% (1/9, 95% CI, 0.3–48.3) in king colobus (Colobus polycomos). Our results indicate that while NHP may represent ZIKV reservoirs in Africa, pets or peri-domestic animals likely do not play a role in ZIKV transmission cycles.

A New Record of Uranotaenia sapphirina and Aedes japonicus in Lee and Ogle Counties, Illinois

Mosquito surveillance was conducted in Nachusa Grasslands Preserve located in north central Illinois in May through October during 2018 and 2019. In the Lee and Ogle counties, Illinois, boundaries of the preserve, 3 Uranotaenia sapphirina and 3 Aedes japonicus were collected and documented over the 2 field seasons in wetland and stream habitats. While Ur. sapphirina has been reported in nearby states, this is the first record in Lee County and on the preserve. Aedes japonicus has previously been recorded in Lee County; however, this is the first observance of this species within Ogle County and on the preserve.

Yellow Fever Outbreak in Eastern Senegal, 2020-2021

Yellow fever virus remains a major threat in low resource countries in South America and Africa despite the existence of an effective vaccine. In Senegal and particularly in the eastern part of the country, periodic sylvatic circulation has been demonstrated with varying degrees of impact on populations in perpetual renewal. We report an outbreak that occurred from October 2020 to February 2021 in eastern Senegal, notified and managed through the synergistic effort yellow fever national surveillance implemented by the Senegalese Ministry of Health in collaboration with the World Health Organization, the countrywide 4S network set up by the Ministry of Health, the Institut Pasteur de Dakar, and the surveillance of arboviruses and hemorrhagic fever viruses in human and vector populations implemented since mid 2020 in eastern Senegal. Virological analyses highlighted the implication of sylvatic mosquito species in virus transmission. Genomic analysis showed a close relationship between the circulating strain in eastern Senegal, 2020, and another one from the West African lineage previously detected and sequenced two years ago from an unvaccinated Dutch traveler who visited the Gambia and Senegal before developing signs after returning to Europe. Moreover, genome analysis identified a 6-nucleotide deletion in the variable domain of the 3′UTR with potential impact on the biology of the viral strain that merits further investigations. Integrated surveillance of yellow fever virus but also of other arboviruses of public health interest is crucial in an ecosystem such as eastern Senegal.

Zika Virus Potential Vectors among Aedes Mosquitoes from Hokkaido, Northern Japan: Implications for Potential Emergence of Zika Disease

The Zika virus (ZIKV) is a rapidly expanding mosquito-borne virus that causes febrile illness in humans. Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are the primary ZIKV vectors; however, the potential vector competence of other Aedes mosquitoes distributed in northern Japan (Palearctic ecozone) are not yet known. In this study, the susceptibility to Zika virus infection of three Aedes mosquitoes distributed in the main city of the northern Japan and their capacities as vectors for ZIKV were evaluated. Field-collected mosquitoes were fed ad libitum an infectious blood meal containing the ZIKV PRVABC59. The Zika virus was detected in the abdomen of Ae. galloisi and Ae. japonicus at 2–10 days post infection (PI), and from the thorax and head of Ae. galloisi at 10 days PI, resulting in 17.6% and 5.9% infection rates, respectively. The Zika virus was not detected from Ae. punctor at any time. Some northern Japanese Aedes could be suspected as vectors of ZIKV but the risk may be low when compared with major ZIKV vectors.

American Mammals Susceptibility to Dengue According to Geographical, Environmental, and Phylogenetic Distances

Many human emergent and re-emergent diseases have a sylvatic cycle. Yet, little effort has been put into discovering and modeling the wild mammal reservoirs of dengue (DENV), particularly in the Americas. Here, we show a species-level susceptibility prediction to dengue of wild mammals in the Americas as a function of the three most important biodiversity dimensions (ecological, geographical, and phylogenetic spaces), using machine learning protocols. Model predictions showed that different species of bats would be highly susceptible to DENV infections, where susceptibility mostly depended on phylogenetic relationships among hosts and their environmental requirement. Mammal species predicted as highly susceptible coincide with sets of species that have been reported infected in field studies, but it also suggests other species that have not been previously considered or that have been captured in low numbers. Also, the environment (i.e., the distance between the species' optima in bioclimatic dimensions) in combination with geographic and phylogenetic distance is highly relevant in predicting susceptibility to DENV in wild mammals. Our results agree with previous modeling efforts indicating that temperature is an important factor determining DENV transmission, and provide novel insights regarding other relevant factors and the importance of considering wild reservoirs. This modeling framework will aid in the identification of potential DENV reservoirs for future surveillance efforts.

Seasonal and inter-annual drivers of yellow fever transmission in South America

In the last 20 years yellow fever (YF) has seen dramatic changes to its incidence and geographic extent, with the largest outbreaks in South America since 1940 occurring in the previously unaffected South-East Atlantic coast of Brazil in 2016-2019. While habitat fragmentation and land-cover have previously been implicated in zoonotic disease, their role in YF has not yet been examined. We examined the extent to which vegetation, land-cover, climate and host population predicted the numbers of months a location reported YF per year and by each month over the time-period. Two sets of models were assessed, one looking at interannual differences over the study period (2003-2016), and a seasonal model looking at intra-annual differences by month, averaging over the years of the study period. Each was fit using hierarchical negative-binomial regression in an exhaustive model fitting process. Within each set, the best performing models, as measured by the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), were combined to create ensemble models to describe interannual and seasonal variation in YF. The models reproduced the spatiotemporal heterogeneities in YF transmission with coefficient of determination (R2) values of 0.43 (95% CI 0.41-0.45) for the interannual model and 0.66 (95% CI 0.64-0.67) for the seasonal model. For the interannual model, EVI, land-cover and vegetation heterogeneity were the primary contributors to the variance explained by the model, and for the seasonal model, EVI, day temperature and rainfall amplitude. Our models explain much of the spatiotemporal variation in YF in South America, both seasonally and across the period 2003-2016. Vegetation type (EVI), heterogeneity in vegetation (perhaps a proxy for habitat fragmentation) and land cover explain much of the trends in YF transmission seen. These findings may help understand the recent expansions of the YF endemic zone, as well as to the highly seasonal nature of YF.

Dengue Virus is Hyperendemic in Nigeria from 2009 to 2020: A Contemporary Systematic Review

Backround

Data on Dengue virus (DENV) infection prevalence, geographic distribution and risk factors are necessary to direct appropriate utilization of existing and emerging control strategies. This study aimed to determine the pooled prevalence, risk factors of DENV infection and the circulating serotypes within Nigeria from January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2020.

Materials and methods

Twenty-one studies out of 2,215 available articles were eligible and included for this systematic review. Relevant articles were searched, screened and included in this study according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) criteria. The risk of bias in primary studies was assessed by Cochrane's method. Heterogeneity of pooled prevalence was calculated using the chi-square test on Cochrane's Q statistic, which was quantified by I-square values. The random-effects analyses of proportions were used to determine the pooled prevalence of DENV antibodies, antigen and RNA from eligible studies.

Results

Of these, 3 studies reported co-circulation of all the 4 serotypes, while 2 separately reported co-circulation of DENV-1 &2 and DENV-1 to -3. All the antibody-based studies had significantly high heterogeneity (I² >90%, P <0.05), while the NS1 and PCR-based studies had low heterogeneity (I² <25%, P >0.05). The pooled prevalence of DENV IgM, IgG, RNA, NS1 and neutralizing antibodies were 16.8%, 34.7%, 7.7%, 7.7% and 0.7%, respectively. South-east Nigeria had the highest pooled DENV-IgG seropositivity, 77.1%. Marital status, gender, educational level and occupation status, the proximity of residence to refuse dumpsite, frequent use of trousers and long sleeve shirts were significantly associated with DENV IgG seropositivity (P <0.05).

Conclusion

Based on these findings, it can be inferred that Nigeria is hyperendemic for Dengue fever and needs concerted efforts to control its spread within and outside the country.

Biological Characteristics and Patterns of Codon Usage Evolution for the African Genotype Zika Virus

We investigated temporal trends of codon usage changes for different host species to determine their importance in Zika virus (ZIKV) evolution. Viral spillover resulting from the potential of codon adaptation to host genome was also assessed for the African genotype ZIKV in comparison to the Asian genotype. To improve our understanding on its zoonotic maintenance, we evaluated in vitro the biological properties of the African genotype ZIKV in vertebrate and mosquito cell lines. Analyses were performed in comparison to Yellow fever virus (YFV). Despite significantly lower codon adaptation index trends than YFV, ZIKV showed evident codon adaptation to vertebrate hosts, particularly for the green African monkey Chlorocebus aethiops. PCA and CAI analyses at the individual ZIKV gene level for both human and Aedes aegypti indicated a clear distinction between the two genotypes. African ZIKV isolates showed higher virulence in mosquito cells than in vertebrate cells. Their higher replication in mosquito cells than African YFV confirmed the role of mosquitoes in the natural maintenance of the African genotype ZIKV. An analysis of individual strain growth characteristics indicated that the widely used reference strain MR766 replicates poorly in comparison to African ZIKV isolates. The recombinant African Zika virus strain ArD128000*^E/NS5 may be a good model to include in studies on the mechanism of host tropism, as it cannot replicate in the tested vertebrate cell line.

The Impact of Climate Change on Vaccine-Preventable Diseases: Insights From Current Research and New Directions

Purpose of Review

Vaccine-preventable diseases remain a major public health concern globally. Climate is a key driver of the dynamics of many infectious diseases, including those that are vaccine preventable. Understanding the impact of climate change on vaccine-preventable diseases is, thus, an important public health research priority. Here, we summarize the recent literature and highlight promising directions for future research.

Recent Findings

Vaccine-preventable enteric diseases, such as cholera, exhibit sensitivity to precipitation and flooding events. The predicted increase in extreme weather events as a result of climate change could exacerbate outbreaks of these pathogens. For airborne pathogens, temperature and specific humidity have been shown to be the most important environmental drivers, although the impact of climate change on disease burden and dynamics remains unclear. Finally, the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases are dependent on both temperature and precipitation, and climate change is expected to alter the burden and geographic range of these diseases. However, understanding the interacting effects of multiple factors, including socioeconomic and ecological factors, on the vector-borne disease ecosystem will be a crucial step towards forecasting disease burden under climate change.

Summary

Recent work has demonstrated associations between climate and transmission of vaccine-preventable diseases. Translating these findings into forecasts under various climate change scenarios will require mechanistic frameworks that account for both intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of transmission, and the non-linear effects on disease burden. Future research should also pay greater attention to uncertainty in both the climate modeling processes as well as disease outcomes in the context of vaccine-preventable diseases.

The expanding arms of Zika virus: An updated review with recent Indian outbreaks

Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreaks and their adverse clinical consequences have raised concerns throughout the world. ZIKV was little known during the initial outbreaks in Yap islands and French Polynesia, but it came to attention after the series of Brazil outbreaks in which severe complications like microcephaly in newborn babies was detected. During 2018, outbreaks of ZIKV occurred in two states of India which, being a tropical country, has congenial climatic conditions, abundance of highly competent mosquito vectors such as Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, and an immunologically naïve population. In this review, we will briefly discuss the history, epidemiology, evolution, transmission (vector-borne and non-vector borne), pathogenesis, clinical signs and unusual presentations, laboratory diagnosis, treatment, prevention and control of ZIKV. Finally, we suggest priorities for urgent research required to address unanswered questions about Zika infections and help bring this virus under control.

Concurrent amplification of Zika, chikungunya, and yellow fever virus in a sylvatic focus of arboviruses in Southeastern Senegal, 2015

Background

Chikungunya (CHIKV), yellow fever (YFV) and Zika (ZIKV) viruses circulate in sylvatic transmission cycles in southeastern Senegal, where they share common hosts and vectors. All three viruses undergo periodic amplifications, during which they are detected in mosquitoes and sometimes in hosts. However, little is known about their spatio-temporal patterns in years in which they undergo concurrent amplification. The aim of this study was to describe the co-amplification of ZIKV, CHIKV, and YFV, and the daily dynamics of these arboviruses and theirs vectors within villages in southeastern Senegal.

Results

Mosquitoes were collected monthly from July to December 2015. Each evening, from 6 to 9 PM, landing collections were performed by teams of 3 persons working simultaneously in 70 sites situated in forest (canopy and ground), savannah, agriculture, barren, and village (indoor and outdoor) land covers. Collections within villages were continued until 6 AM. Mosquitoes were tested for virus infection by virus isolation and RT-PCR. Seventy-five mosquito pools comprising 10 mosquito species contained at least one virus. Ae. furcifer and Ae. luteocephalus were infected by all three viruses, Ae. taylori by YFV and ZIKV, and remaining seven species by only, only YFV or only ZIKV. No single mosquito pool contained more than one virus. CHIKV was the only virus detected in all land cover classes and was found in the greatest number of sampling sites (32.9%, n = 70). The proportion of sites in which more than one virus was detected was less than 6%. Ae. aegypti formosus, Ae. furcifer, Ae. luteocephalus, Ae. minutus, Ae. vittatus, and An. gambiae were found within villages. These vectors were mainly active around dusk but Ae. furcifer was collected until dawn. All viruses save ZIKV were detected indoors and outdoors, mainly around dusk. Virus positive pools were detected over 2, 3 and 4 months for YFV, CHIKV and ZIKV, respectively.

Conclusion

Our data indicate that the distribution of different vector species and different arboviruses vary substantially between sites, suggesting that CHIKV, YFV, and ZIKV may have different transmission cycles in Southeastern Senegal.

Influence of herd immunity in the cyclical nature of arboviruses

We review and contrast the evidence for an effect of amplifying host herd immunity on circulation and human exposure to arboviruses. Herd immunity of short-lived West Nile virus avian amplifying hosts appears to play a limited role in levels of enzootic circulation and spillover infections of humans, which are not amplifiers. In contrast, herd immunity of nonhuman primate hosts for enzootic Zika, dengue, and chikungunya viruses is much stronger and appears to regulate to a large extent the periodicity of sylvatic amplification in Africa. Following the recent Zika and chikungunya pandemics, human herd immunity in the Americas quickly rose to ∼50% in many regions, although seroprevalence remains patchy. Modeling from decades of chikungunya circulation in Asia suggests that this level of herd immunity will suppress for many years major chikungunya and Zika epidemics in the Americas, followed by smaller outbreaks as herd immunity cycles with a periodicity of up to several decades.

The Global Expansion of Dengue: How Aedes aegypti Mosquitoes Enabled the First Pandemic Arbovirus

Dengue is an emerging viral disease principally transmitted by the Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti mosquito. It is one of the fastest-growing global infectious diseases, with 100-400 million new infections a year, and is now entrenched in a growing number of tropical megacities. Behind this rapid rise is the simple adaptation of Ae. aegypti to a new entomological niche carved out by human habitation. This review describes the expansion of dengue and explores how key changes in the ecology of Ae. aegypti allowed it to become a successful invasive species and highly efficient disease vector. We argue that characterizing geographic heterogeneity in mosquito bionomics will be a key research priority that will enable us to better understand future dengue risk and design control strategies to reverse its global spread.

Sylvatic cycles of arboviruses in non-human primates

Arboviruses infecting people primarily exist in urban transmission cycles involving urban mosquitoes in densely populated tropical regions. For dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever viruses, sylvatic (forest) transmission cycles also exist in some regions and involve non-human primates and forest-dwelling mosquitoes. Here we review the investigation methods and available data on sylvatic cycles involving non-human primates and dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever viruses in Africa, dengue viruses in Asia and yellow fever virus in the Americas. We also present current putative data that Mayaro, o'nyong'nyong, Oropouche, Spondweni and Lumbo viruses exist in sylvatic cycles.

A systematic review and evaluation of Zika virus forecasting and prediction research during a public health emergency of international concern

INTRODUCTION

Epidemic forecasting and prediction tools have the potential to provide actionable information in the midst of emerging epidemics. While numerous predictive studies were published during the 2016-2017 Zika Virus (ZIKV) pandemic, it remains unknown how timely, reproducible, and actionable the information produced by these studies was.

METHODS

To improve the functional use of mathematical modeling in support of future infectious disease outbreaks, we conducted a systematic review of all ZIKV prediction studies published during the recent ZIKV pandemic using the PRISMA guidelines. Using MEDLINE, EMBASE, and grey literature review, we identified studies that forecasted, predicted, or simulated ecological or epidemiological phenomena related to the Zika pandemic that were published as of March 01, 2017. Eligible studies underwent evaluation of objectives, data sources, methods, timeliness, reproducibility, accessibility, and clarity by independent reviewers.

RESULTS

2034 studies were identified, of which n = 73 met the eligibility criteria. Spatial spread, R0 (basic reproductive number), and epidemic dynamics were most commonly predicted, with few studies predicting Guillain-Barré Syndrome burden (4%), sexual transmission risk (4%), and intervention impact (4%). Most studies specifically examined populations in the Americas (52%), with few African-specific studies (4%). Case count (67%), vector (41%), and demographic data (37%) were the most common data sources. Real-time internet data and pathogen genomic information were used in 7% and 0% of studies, respectively, and social science and behavioral data were typically absent in modeling efforts. Deterministic models were favored over stochastic approaches. Forty percent of studies made model data entirely available, 29% provided all relevant model code, 43% presented uncertainty in all predictions, and 54% provided sufficient methodological detail to allow complete reproducibility. Fifty-one percent of predictions were published after the epidemic peak in the Americas. While the use of preprints improved the accessibility of ZIKV predictions by a median of 119 days sooner than journal publication dates, they were used in only 30% of studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Many ZIKV predictions were published during the 2016-2017 pandemic. The accessibility, reproducibility, timeliness, and incorporation of uncertainty in these published predictions varied and indicates there is substantial room for improvement. To enhance the utility of analytical tools for outbreak response it is essential to improve the sharing of model data, code, and preprints for future outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics.

Dengue virus infection in people residing in Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prevalence studies

Better knowledge of the face of the current dengue virus (DENV) epidemiology in Africa can help to implement efficient strategies to curb the burden of dengue fever. We conducted this systematic review and meta-analysis to determine the prevalence of DENV infection in Africa. We searched PubMed, EMBASE, African Journals Online, and Africa Index Medicus from January 1^st, 2000 to June 10^th, 2019 without any language restriction. We used a random-effects model to pool studies. A total of 76 studies (80,977 participants; 24 countries) were included. No study had high risk of bias. Twenty-two (29%) had moderate and 54 (71%) had low risk of bias. In apparently healthy individuals, the pooled prevalence of DENV was 15.6% (95% confidence interval 9.9–22.2), 3.5% (0.8–7.8), and 0.0% (0.0–0.5) respectively for immunoglobulins (Ig) G, IgM, and for ribonucleic acid (RNA) in apparently healthy populations. In populations presenting with fever, the prevalence was 24.8% (13.8–37.8), 10.8% (3.8–20.6k) and 8.4% (3.7–14.4) for IgG, IgM, and for RNA respectively. There was heterogeneity in the distribution between different regions of Africa. The prevalence of DENV infection is high in the African continent. Dengue fever therefore deserves more attention from healthcare workers, researchers, and health policy makers.

Prevalence of Zika and malaria in patients with fever in secondary healthcare facilities in south-eastern Nigeria

We describe the frequency of Zika and malaria among patients presenting with fever to secondary health facilities in Cross River State, Nigeria. Using a cross-sectional, stratified survey design, we randomly selected nine facilities and consecutively recruited 100 participants (aged ≥ 1 year) who presented with fever. On testing blood samples using Biocan qualitative lateral flow immuno-chromatographic cassettes for Zika IgG and IgM, 10% were seropositive for Zika virus (ZIKV) IgM, 12% for ZIKV IgG and 20% for ZIKV IgM, IgG or both. Following microscopy of thick films stained with Giemsa for malaria parasites, 55% were positive for malaria and 15% were positive for both malaria and ZIKV IgM, IgG or both. A moderately negative association between urban and rural household location and seropositivity for ZIKV IgM or IgG was found on logistic regression. Our results clearly indicate a high rate of probable ZIKV and malaria co-incidence in Cross River State. Given the high risk of serious fetal outcomes following ZIKV infection, further epidemiological research and surveillance systems for ZIKV are clearly required.

Acute Vector-Borne Viral Infection: Zika and MinION Surveillance

The MinION sequencer was launched by the Oxford Nanopore Technologies start-up as a disruptive technology for genome sequencing based on single-molecule synthesis. Its characteristics as a portable device, low cost, and simple library preparation have made it a good candidate for field researchers. MinION has been used to sequence a number of microorganisms, such as bacteria, viruses, and fungi. Based on the experience that characterized the Ebola virus genetic diversity in Guinea during the 2014-2015 outbreak, the ZiBRA (Zika in Brazil Real-time Analysis) project aimed to sequence a large number of Zika virus genomes during a mobile laboratory trip in northeast Brazil to provide important epidemiological information about the spread of this disease in this country. In response to the positive and rapid results obtained by the ZiBRA project, the Brazilian Ministry of Health and many leading institutions, such as the Pan American Health Organization and WHO, have shown interest in expanding the strategy used in this project to other countries dealing with arbovirus infection. *This article is part of a curated collection.

Implementing a community vector collection strategy for monitoring vector-borne diseases in Ghana

Background: Monitoring vector-borne diseases requires sampling of very large numbers of disease vectors in order to corroborate infections in the human population. This can be challenging, as current vector collection tools are either inefficient, or expensive to implement from a public health perspective. To circumvent this challenge, this study compared a community vector collection strategy using a double-netted mosquito collection method (a tent trap (TT)) to the traditional human landing collection (HLC) method in three communities in lymphatic filariasis-endemic districts in Ghana. Methods: Following community entry and sensitization, community volunteers appointed by the community leaders were trained in the mosquito collection and storage methods and provided with supplies for mosquito collection over a 7-month period. They were visited occasionally by the study team to retrieve the mosquito samples for identification. The collectors were also assessed to evaluate their perspectives on using community vector collectors for monitoring vector-borne diseases. Results: The results of the study indicated that the TT method collected significantly more mosquitoes (63%) over the collection period than HLC (37%). Thus, the TTs were observed to be performing relatively better than the HLC (P<0.001). The collectors knew the importance of mosquitoes in transmitting diseases, could identify the main diseases that were locally transmitted within their communities. They appreciated the involvement of the community in the collection as this enhanced community ownership of the programme as well as providing some financial incentives to those directly involved in the collection. Conclusions: The study revealed that use of community volunteers for the collection of mosquitoes for xenomonitoring purposes can be a viable strategy in the monitoring of vector-borne diseases. However, further development of the strategies and assessments of the costs involved will be required to make this a sustainable approach to monitoring vector-borne disease interventions and enhance community ownership of the programmes.

Modes of Transmission of Zika Virus

For >60 years, Zika virus (ZIKV) has been recognized as an arthropod-borne virus with Aedes species mosquitoes as the primary vector. However in the past 10 years, multiple alternative routes of ZIKV transmission have been identified. We review the available data on vector and non-vector-borne modes of transmission and interventions undertaken, to date, to reduce the risk of human infection through these routes. Although much has been learned during the outbreak in the Americas on the underlying mechanisms and pathogenesis of non-vector-borne ZIKV infections, significant gaps remain in our understanding of the relative incidence of, and risk from, these modes compared to mosquito transmission. Additional research is urgently needed on the risk, pathogenesis, and effectiveness of measures to mitigate non-vector-borne ZIKV transmission.

Vector-borne transmission and evolution of Zika virus

Zika virus (ZIKV), discovered in the Zika Forest of Uganda in 1947, is a mosquito-borne flavivirus related to yellow fever, dengue and West Nile viruses. From its discovery until 2007, only sporadic ZIKV cases were reported, with mild clinical manifestations in patients. Therefore, little attention was given to this virus before epidemics in the South Pacific and the Americas that began in 2013. Despite a growing number of ZIKV studies in the past three years, many aspects of the virus remain poorly characterized, particularly the spectrum of species involved in its transmission cycles. Here, we review the mosquito and vertebrate host species potentially involved in ZIKV vector-borne transmission worldwide. We also provide an evidence-supported analysis regarding the possibility of ZIKV spillback from an urban cycle to a zoonotic cycle outside Africa, and we review hypotheses regarding recent emergence and evolution of ZIKV. Finally, we identify critical remaining gaps in the current knowledge of ZIKV vector-borne transmission.

Implementing a community vector collection strategy for monitoring vector-borne diseases in Ghana

Background: Monitoring vector-borne diseases requires sampling of very large numbers of disease vectors in order to corroborate infections in the human population. This can be challenging, as current vector collection tools are either inefficient, or expensive to implement from a public health perspective. To circumvent this challenge, this study compared a community vector collection strategy using a double-netted mosquito collection method (a tent trap (TT)) to the traditional human landing collection (HLC) method in three communities in lymphatic filariasis-endemic districts in Ghana. Methods: Following community entry and sensitization, community volunteers appointed by the community leaders were trained in the mosquito collection and storage methods and provided with supplies for mosquito collection over a 7-month period. They were visited occasionally by the study team to retrieve the mosquito samples for identification. The collectors were also assessed to evaluate their perspectives on using community vector collectors for monitoring vector-borne diseases. Results: The results of the study indicated that the TT method collected significantly more mosquitoes (63%) over the collection period than HLC (37%). Thus, the TTs were observed to be performing relatively better than the HLC (P<0.001). The collectors knew the importance of mosquitoes in transmitting diseases, could identify the main diseases that were locally transmitted within their communities. They appreciated the involvement of the community in the collection as this enhanced community ownership of the programme as well as providing some financial incentives to those directly involved in the collection. Conclusions: The study revealed that use of community volunteers for the collection of mosquitoes for xenomonitoring purposes can be a viable strategy in the monitoring of vector-borne diseases. However, further development of the strategies and assessments of the costs involved will be required to make this a sustainable approach to monitoring vector-borne disease interventions and enhance community ownership of the programmes.

Molecular Epidemiology and Genetic Diversity of Zika Virus from Field-Caught Mosquitoes in Various Regions of Thailand

Zika virus (ZIKV) infection is an emerging and re-emerging arbovirus disease that is transmitted to humans through the bite of infected mosquitoes. ZIKV infections were first described in Thailand in 1954 from the sera of indigenous residents and several travelers returning from Thailand in 2014. However, reported cases in Thailand have been increasing since 2015 and 2016, and epidemiological information about the vectors of ZIKV is unclear. We investigated the molecular epidemiology and genetic diversity of ZIKV from mosquitoes collected from different geographic regions experiencing ZIKV outbreaks in Thailand. Polymerase chain reaction was used to amplify the non-structural protein (NS5) gene of ZIKV, which was then sequenced. A total of 1026 mosquito samples (626 females, 367 males, and 33 larvae) were collected from active ZIKV patients’ houses. ZIKV was detected in 79 samples (7.7%), including Aedes aegypti (2.24% female, 1.27% male, and 0.19% larvae), Culex quinquefasciatus (1.85% female, 1.66% male, and 0.29% larvae), and Armigeres subalbatus (0.1% female and 0.1% male), whereas no ZIKV was detected in Aedes albopictus. Phylogenetic analysis of the 79 positive samples were classified into two clades: Those closely related to a previous report in Thailand, and those related to ZIKV found in the Americas. This is the first report of the detection of ZIKV in Ae. aegypti, Cx. quinquefasciatus, and Ar. subalbatus mosquitoes, and genetic variations of ZIKV in the mosquitoes collected from several geographic regions of Thailand were examined. Detection of ZIKV in male and larval mosquitoes suggests that vertical transmission of ZIKV occurred in these mosquito species. This study provides a more in-depth understanding of the patterns and epidemiologic data of ZIKV in Thailand; the data could be used for future development of more effective prevention and control strategies of ZIKV in Thailand.

Zika Virus in Peridomestic Neotropical Primates, Northeast Brazil

Zika virus (ZIKV) is a mosquito-borne viral disease associated with fetal microcephaly and other central nervous system (CNS) symptomatology. It was first identified in a Rhesus macaque in Uganda in 1947 and later in humans (Zika fever). In 2015, ZIKV was notified in Northeast Brazil where it was associated with CNS alterations and with rapid epidemic spread. Considering that ZIKV infects Old World monkeys, the aim of this study was to follow its potential in neotropical primates. Here, we show the detection of ZIKV in marmosets and capuchin monkeys captured in Ceara state, Northeast Brazil. Nine (9/132) samples were positive by quantitative RT-PCR assay. Neutralizing antibodies in primates for ZIKV were also detected by PRNT. The ZIKV-positive samples were obtained from peridomestic animals captured in proximity to humans in areas with reports of ZIKV-associated microcephaly cases during the epidemic period. These results reiterate the molecular evidence of ZIKV infection in neotropical primates, and the temporal detection suggests that detection in primates occurred during the epidemic period in humans. However, a continuous surveillance is necessary to exclude the possibility of virus circulation and transmission in wild environments.

Biodiversity Pattern of Mosquitoes in Southeastern Senegal, Epidemiological Implication in Arbovirus and Malaria Transmission

The composition, density, diversity, and temporal distribution of mosquito species and the influence of temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall on these data were investigated in 50 sites across five land cover classes (forest, savannah, barren, village, and agriculture) in southeastern Senegal. Mosquitoes were collected monthly in each site between June 2009 and March 2011, with three people collecting mosquitoes landing on their legs for one to four consecutive days. In total, 81,219 specimens, belonging to 60 species and 7 genera, were collected. The most abundant species were Aedes furcifer (Edwards) (Diptera: Culicidae) (20.7%), Ae. vittatus (Bigot) (19.5%), Ae. dalzieli (Theobald) (14.7%), and Ae. luteocephalus (Newstead) (13.7%). Ae. dalzieli, Ae. furcifer, Ae. vittatus, Ae. luteocephalus, Ae. taylori Edwards, Ae. africanus (Theobald), Ae. minutus (Theobald), Anopheles coustani Laveran, Culex quinquefasciatus Say, and Mansonia uniformis (Theobald) comprised ≥10% of the total collection, in at least one land cover. The lowest species richness and Brillouin diversity index (HB = 1.55) were observed in the forest-canopy. The urban-indoor fauna showed the highest dissimilarity with other land covers and was most similar to the urban-outdoor fauna following Jaccard and Morisita index. Mosquito abundance peaked in June and October 2009 and July and October 2010. The highest species density was recorded in October. The maximum temperature was correlated positively with mean temperature and negatively with rainfall and relative humidity. Rainfall showed a positive correlation with mosquito abundance and species density. These data will be useful for understanding the transmission of arboviruses and human malaria in the region.

Zika Virus: A Global Public Health Menace: A Comprehensive Update

Zika virus (ZIKV) is a RNA virus and belongs to genus Flavivirus and family Flaviviridae. The virus was first discovered from a febrile primate from the Zika forests of Uganda in 1947 and the first human case was documented in 1954. The nonspecific clinical manifestations of ZIKV pose diagnostic dilemmas and delays early and effective treatment. Dental professionals should have a thorough knowledge about the virus and should follow standard infection control measures as the virus has been demonstrated in various body secretions (including salivary secretions). The disease is managed by symptomatic and supportive care and no vaccine exist till date. Recent ZIKV outbreaks and increase association of microcephaly with congenital ZIKV and neurological complications (Guillain-Barré syndrome) has drawn global public health attention. The World Health Organization declared it a public health emergency of international concern in 2016. This review article provides a detailed overview on ZIKV; it is clinical and oral manifestations, diagnostic aids, differential diagnosis, preventive aspects, and management protocol.

Statistical modeling of the effect of rainfall flushing on dengue transmission in Singapore

BACKGROUND

Rainfall patterns are one of the main drivers of dengue transmission as mosquitoes require standing water to reproduce. However, excess rainfall can be disruptive to the Aedes reproductive cycle by "flushing out" aquatic stages from breeding sites. We developed models to predict the occurrence of such "flushing" events from rainfall data and to evaluate the effect of flushing on dengue outbreak risk in Singapore between 2000 and 2016.

METHODS

We used machine learning and regression models to predict days with "flushing" in the dataset based on entomological and corresponding rainfall observations collected in Singapore. We used a distributed lag nonlinear logistic regression model to estimate the association between the number of flushing events per week and the risk of a dengue outbreak.

RESULTS

Days with flushing were identified through the developed logistic regression model based on entomological data (test set accuracy = 92%). Predictions were based upon the aggregate number of thresholds indicating unusually rainy conditions over multiple weeks. We observed a statistically significant reduction in dengue outbreak risk one to six weeks after flushing events occurred. For weeks with five or more flushing events, compared with weeks with no flushing events, the risk of a dengue outbreak in the subsequent weeks was reduced by 16% to 70%.

CONCLUSIONS

We have developed a high accuracy predictive model associating temporal rainfall patterns with flushing conditions. Using predicted flushing events, we have demonstrated a statistically significant reduction in dengue outbreak risk following flushing, with the time lag well aligned with time of mosquito development from larvae and infection transmission. Vector control programs should consider the effects of hydrological conditions in endemic areas on dengue transmission.

CD4+T cells mediate protection against Zika associated severe disease in a mouse model of infection

Zika virus (ZIKV) has gained worldwide attention since it emerged, and a global effort is underway to understand the correlates of protection and develop diagnostics to identify rates of infection. As new therapeutics and vaccine approaches are evaluated in clinical trials, additional effort is focused on identifying the adaptive immune correlates of protection against ZIKV disease. To aid in this endeavor we have begun to dissect the role of CD4+T cells in the protection against neuroinvasive ZIKV disease. We have identified an important role for CD4+T cells in protection, demonstrating that in the absence of CD4+T cells mice have more severe neurological sequela and significant increases in viral titers in the central nervous system (CNS). The transfer of CD4+T cells from ZIKV immune mice protect type I interferon receptor deficient animals from a lethal challenge; showing that the CD4+T cell response is necessary and sufficient for control of ZIKV disease. Using a peptide library spanning the complete ZIKV polyprotein, we identified both ZIKV-encoded CD4+T cell epitopes that initiate immune responses, and ZIKV specific CD4+T cell receptors that recognize these epitopes. Within the ZIKV antigen-specific TCRβ repertoire, we uncovered a high degree of diversity both in response to a single epitope and among different mice responding to a CD4+T cell epitope. Overall this study identifies a novel role for polyfunctional and polyclonal CD4+T cells in providing protection against ZIKV infection and highlights the need for vaccines to develop robust CD4+T cell responses to prevent ZIKV neuroinvasion and limit replication within the CNS.

Environmental and social determinants of population vulnerability to Zika virus emergence at the local scale

Background

Zika virus (ZIKV) spread rapidly in the Americas in 2015. Targeting effective public health interventions for inhabitants of, and travellers to and from, affected countries depends on understanding the risk of ZIKV emergence (and re-emergence) at the local scale. We explore the extent to which environmental, social and neighbourhood disease intensity variables influenced emergence dynamics. Our objective was to characterise population vulnerability given the potential for sustained autochthonous ZIKV transmission and the timing of emergence. Logistic regression models estimated the probability of reporting at least one case of ZIKV in a given municipality over the course of the study period as an indicator for sustained transmission; while accelerated failure time (AFT) survival models estimated the time to a first reported case of ZIKV in week t for a given municipality as an indicator for timing of emergence.

Results

Sustained autochthonous ZIKV transmission was best described at the temporal scale of the study period (almost one year), such that high levels of study period precipitation and low mean study period temperature reduced the probability. Timing of ZIKV emergence was best described at the weekly scale for precipitation in that high precipitation in the current week delayed reporting. Both modelling approaches detected an effect of high poverty on reducing/slowing case detection, especially when inter-municipal road connectivity was low. We also found that proximity to municipalities reporting ZIKV had an effect to reduce timing of emergence when located, on average, less than 100 km away.

Conclusions

The different modelling approaches help distinguish between large temporal scale factors driving vector habitat suitability and short temporal scale factors affecting the speed of spread. We find evidence for inter-municipal movements of infected people as a local-scale driver of spatial spread. The negative association with poverty suggests reduced case reporting in poorer areas. Overall, relatively simplistic models may be able to predict the vulnerability of populations to autochthonous ZIKV transmission at the local scale.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13071-018-2867-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Understanding dengue virus evolution to support epidemic surveillance and counter-measure development

Dengue virus (DENV) causes a profound burden of morbidity and mortality, and its global burden is rising due to the co-circulation of four divergent DENV serotypes in the ecological context of globalization, travel, climate change, urbanization, and expansion of the geographic range of the Ae.aegypti and Ae.albopictus vectors. Understanding DENV evolution offers valuable opportunities to enhance surveillance and response to DENV epidemics via advances in RNA virus sequencing, bioinformatics, phylogenetic and other computational biology methods. Here we provide a scoping overview of the evolution and molecular epidemiology of DENV and the range of ways that evolutionary analyses can be applied as a public health tool against this arboviral pathogen.

Ecological niche modeling of Aedes mosquito vectors of chikungunya virus in southeastern Senegal

Background

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) originated in a sylvatic cycle of transmission between non-human animal hosts and vector mosquitoes in the forests of Africa. Subsequently the virus jumped out of this ancestral cycle into a human-endemic transmission cycle vectored by anthropophilic mosquitoes. Sylvatic CHIKV cycles persist in Africa and continue to spill over into humans, creating the potential for new CHIKV strains to enter human-endemic transmission. To mitigate such spillover, it is first necessary to delineate the distributions of the sylvatic mosquito vectors of CHIKV, to identify the environmental factors that shape these distributions, and to determine the association of mosquito presence with key drivers of virus spillover, including mosquito and CHIKV abundance. We therefore modeled the distribution of seven CHIKV mosquito vectors over two sequential rainy seasons in Kédougou, Senegal using Maxent.

Methods

Mosquito data were collected in fifty sites distributed in five land cover classes across the study area. Environmental data representing land cover, topographic, and climatic factors were included in the models. Models were compared and evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) statistics. The correlation of model outputs with abundance of individual mosquito species as well as CHIKV-positive mosquito pools was tested.

Results

Fourteen models were produced and evaluated; the environmental variables most strongly associated with mosquito distributions were distance to large patches of forest, landscape patch size, rainfall, and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Seven models were positively correlated with mosquito abundance and one (Aedes taylori) was consistently, positively correlated with CHIKV-positive mosquito pools. Eight models predicted high relative occurrence rates of mosquitoes near the villages of Tenkoto and Ngary, the areas with the highest frequency of CHIKV-positive mosquito pools.

Conclusions

Of the environmental factors considered here, landscape fragmentation and configuration had the strongest influence on mosquito distributions. Of the mosquito species modeled, the distribution of Ae. taylori correlated most strongly with abundance of CHIKV, suggesting that presence of this species will be a useful predictor of sylvatic CHIKV presence.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13071-018-2832-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Dynamics of Zika virus outbreaks: an overview of mathematical modeling approaches

BACKGROUND

The Zika virus was first discovered in 1947. It was neglected until a major outbreak occurred on Yap Island, Micronesia, in 2007. Teratogenic effects resulting in microcephaly in newborn infants is the greatest public health threat. In 2016, the Zika virus epidemic was declared as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). Consequently, mathematical models were constructed to explicitly elucidate related transmission dynamics.

SURVEY METHODOLOGY

In this review article, two steps of journal article searching were performed. First, we attempted to identify mathematical models previously applied to the study of vector-borne diseases using the search terms "dynamics," "mathematical model," "modeling," and "vector-borne" together with the names of vector-borne diseases including chikungunya, dengue, malaria, West Nile, and Zika. Then the identified types of model were further investigated. Second, we narrowed down our survey to focus on only Zika virus research. The terms we searched for were "compartmental," "spatial," "metapopulation," "network," "individual-based," "agent-based" AND "Zika." All relevant studies were included regardless of the year of publication. We have collected research articles that were published before August 2017 based on our search criteria. In this publication survey, we explored the Google Scholar and PubMed databases.

RESULTS

We found five basic model architectures previously applied to vector-borne virus studies, particularly in Zika virus simulations. These include compartmental, spatial, metapopulation, network, and individual-based models. We found that Zika models carried out for early epidemics were mostly fit into compartmental structures and were less complicated compared to the more recent ones. Simple models are still commonly used for the timely assessment of epidemics. Nevertheless, due to the availability of large-scale real-world data and computational power, recently there has been growing interest in more complex modeling frameworks.

DISCUSSION

Mathematical models are employed to explore and predict how an infectious disease spreads in the real world, evaluate the disease importation risk, and assess the effectiveness of intervention strategies. As the trends in modeling of infectious diseases have been shifting towards data-driven approaches, simple and complex models should be exploited differently. Simple models can be produced in a timely fashion to provide an estimation of the possible impacts. In contrast, complex models integrating real-world data require more time to develop but are far more realistic. The preparation of complicated modeling frameworks prior to the outbreaks is recommended, including the case of future Zika epidemic preparation.

Role of monkeys in the sylvatic cycle of chikungunya virus in Senegal

Arboviruses spillover into humans either as a one-step jump from a reservoir host species into humans or as a two-step jump from the reservoir to an amplification host species and thence to humans. Little is known about arbovirus transmission dynamics in reservoir and amplification hosts. Here we elucidate the role of monkeys in the sylvatic, enzootic cycle of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) in the region around Kédougou, Senegal. Over 3 years, 737 monkeys were captured, aged using anthropometry and dentition, and tested for exposure to CHIKV by detection of neutralizing antibodies. Infant monkeys were positive for CHIKV even when the virus was not detected in a concurrent survey of mosquitoes and when population immunity was too high for monkeys alone to support continuous transmission. We conclude that monkeys in this region serve as amplification hosts of CHIKV. Additional efforts are needed to identify other hosts capable of supporting continuous circulation.

Laser-cut paper-based device for the detection of dengue non-structural NS1 protein and specific IgM in human samples

The incidence of flavivirus infections has increased dramatically in recent decades in tropical and sub-tropical areas worldwide, affecting hundreds of millions of people each year. Dengue viruses are typically transmitted by mosquitoes and can cause a wide range of symptoms from flu-like fever to organ impairment and death. Although conventional diagnostic tests can provide early diagnosis of acute dengue infections, access to these tests is often limited in developing countries. Consequently, there is an urgent need to develop affordable, simple, rapid, and robust diagnostic tools that can be used at 'Point of Care' settings. Early diagnosis is crucial to improve patient management and reduce the risk of complications. In the present study, a novel laser-cut device made of glass-fiber paper was designed and tested for the detection of the dengue Non Structural 1 (NS1) viral protein and specific IgM in blood and plasma. The device, called PAD, was able to detect around 25 ng/mL of NS1 protein in various sample types in 8 minutes, following a few simple steps. The PAD was also able to detect specific IgM in human plasmas in less than 10 minutes. The PAD appears to have all the potential to assist health workers in early diagnosis of dengue fever or other tropical fevers caused by flaviviruses.

THE “UNHOLY” CHIKUNGUNYA–DENGUE–ZIKA TRINITY: A THEORETICAL ANALYSIS

Aedes aegypti is the vector for numerous diseases in humans and other (reservoir) hosts, such as chikungunya, dengue fever and Zika virus. A new deterministic model is designed and used to assess the dynamics of the three diseases in a population where Aedes mosquitoes are abundant. The model to be designed incorporates the recently-released imperfect vaccine against dengue virus (Dengvaxia[Formula: see text] vaccine by Sanofi Pasteur) as well as allow for sexual transmission of Zika. Further, the model allows for the assessment of the population-level impact of three biological hypotheses, namely a competitive dengue–chikungunya–Zika superinfection hierarchy, an antibody-dependent enhancement of dengue over Zika and that the Dengvaxia vaccine can induce reduced susceptibility to Zika infection in vaccinated individuals. After carrying out detailed theoretical analyses to gain insight into its qualitative features, the model is then fitted to the data recorded during the 2015–2016 outbreaks of the three diseases in Mexico. Simulations of the model show a reasonable fit to observed dynamics consistent with the competitive hierarchy assumed for the interactions of the viruses. Furthermore, Zika transmission dynamics is only mildly affected by changes in the parameter related to the infectiousness of Zika in relation to dengue, even in the region where antibody-dependent enhancement is assumed. The dengue vaccine has a very marginal impact on Zika transmission dynamics (and that the vaccine, no matter the coverage and efficacy levels, is unable to reduce the reproduction number for Zika transmission to a value less than unity). The model is extended to include the effect of seasonality and local weather variability (temperature and rainfall) on the dynamics of the three diseases. Simulations of the resulting non-autonomous model, using weather and demographic data for Mexico, show that for the current mean monthly rainfall value for Mexico, the burden of the three diseases increases with increasing mean monthly temperature in the range 16–29[Formula: see text]C, and decreases with increasing mean monthly temperature thereafter. Additionally, for the current fixed mean monthly temperature and rainfall data for Mexico, simulations show maximum transmission activity of all three diseases if the temperature and rainfall values lie in the range 25–26.4[Formula: see text]C and 90–128[Formula: see text]mm, respectively (these values are typically recorded in Mexico during the months of June, July and September). Simulations for two Mexican states (Oaxaca and Chiapas) where the three diseases are endemic show maximum transmission activity for all three diseases when temperature and rainfall lie in the ranges 20–25[Formula: see text]C and 51–102[Formula: see text]mm for Oaxaca (these ranges are recorded during the months of May through September) and 19–21[Formula: see text]C and 85–107[Formula: see text]mm for Chiapas (there ranges are recorded during the months of May, July, August and October), respectively. These simulations suggest suitable time when anti-mosquito control efforts should be intensified in Mexico (and the two selected states).

Zika virus: An updated review of competent or naturally infected mosquitoes

Zika virus (ZIKV) is an arthropod-borne virus (arbovirus) that recently caused outbreaks in the Americas. Over the past 60 years, this virus has been observed circulating among African, Asian, and Pacific Island populations, but little attention has been paid by the scientific community until the discovery that large-scale urban ZIKV outbreaks were associated with neurological complications such as microcephaly and several other neurological malformations in fetuses and newborns. This paper is a systematic review intended to list all mosquito species studied for ZIKV infection or for their vector competence. We discuss whether studies on ZIKV vectors have brought enough evidence to formally exclude other mosquitoes than Aedes species (and particularly Aedes aegypti) to be ZIKV vectors. From 1952 to August 15, 2017, ZIKV has been studied in 53 mosquito species, including 6 Anopheles, 26 Aedes, 11 Culex, 2 Lutzia, 3 Coquillettidia, 2 Mansonia, 2 Eretmapodites, and 1 Uranotaenia. Among those, ZIKV was isolated from 16 different Aedes species. The only species other than Aedes genus for which ZIKV was isolated were Anopheles coustani, Anopheles gambiae, Culex perfuscus, and Mansonia uniformis. Vector competence assays were performed on 22 different mosquito species, including 13 Aedes, 7 Culex, and 2 Anopheles species with, as a result, the discovery that A. aegypti and Aedes albopictus were competent for ZIKV, as well as some other Aedes species, and that there was a controversy surrounding Culex quinquefasciatus competence. Although Culex, Anopheles, and most of Aedes species were generally observed to be refractory to ZIKV infection, other potential vectors transmitting ZIKV should be explored.

The Bridges and Blockades to Evolutionary Convergence on the Road to Predicting Chikungunya Virus Evolution

Chikungunya virus, first isolated in the 1950s, has since reemerged to cause several epidemics and millions of infections throughout the world. What was once blurred and confused with dengue virus in both diagnosis and name has since become one of the best-characterized arboviral diseases. In this review, we cover the history of this virus, its evolution into distinct genotypes and lineages, and, most notably, the convergent evolution observed in recent years. We highlight research that reveals to what extent convergent evolution, and its inherent predictability, may occur and what genetic or environmental factors may hinder it.

Zika virus: what, where from and where to?

The significance of Zika virus as a clinically significant flavivirus has previously been under-recognised, until extensive outbreaks in Yap in 2007, French Polynesia in 2013 and the Americas since 2015. Although Zika virus infection is commonly asymptomatic or mild, emerging evidence suggests a strong link to microcephaly in babies and Guillain-Barré syndrome in adults. This article reviews the epidemiology, geographic distribution, basic virology, transmission, clinical presentation, potential complications, laboratory diagnosis, treatment and prevention of Zika virus infection. Education on mosquito avoidance measures and vector control efforts currently remain key to reducing risk of transmission, whilst further research is underway to develop antiviral therapies and vaccines.

Asymmetric percolation drives a double transition in sexual contact networks

Zika virus (ZIKV) exhibits unique transmission dynamics in that it is concurrently spread by a mosquito vector and through sexual contact. Due to the highly asymmetric durations of infectiousness between males and females-it is estimated that males are infectious for periods up to 10 times longer than females-we show that this sexual component of ZIKV transmission behaves akin to an asymmetric percolation process on the network of sexual contacts. We exactly solve the properties of this asymmetric percolation on random sexual contact networks and show that this process exhibits two epidemic transitions corresponding to a core-periphery structure. This structure is not present in the underlying contact networks, which are not distinguishable from random networks, and emerges because of the asymmetric percolation. We provide an exact analytical description of this double transition and discuss the implications of our results in the context of ZIKV epidemics. Most importantly, our study suggests a bias in our current ZIKV surveillance, because the community most at risk is also one of the least likely to get tested.

Breast milk intake and mother to infant pesticide transfer measured by deuterium oxide dilution in agricultural and urban areas of Mexico

Vector-borne diseases have increased pesticide use in urban areas (UA) and agricultural areas (AA) in Mexico. Breast milk can be contaminated by pesticide exposure. The objective of the study was to measure breast milk intake by deuterium oxide dilution as well as organochlorine and pyrethroid transfer from mother to infant in AA and UA of Sonora, Mexico. Human milk intake was determined by the 'dose-to-mother' technique using deuterium oxide (D₂O) dilution. Mothers' body composition was also assessed by this technique and the intercept method. Pyrethroids (deltamethrin, cypermethrin and cyhalothrin) and organochlorine pesticide residues (p,p'- DDT, p,p'- DDE, p,p'- DDD) in breast milk samples were measured by gas chromatography. Sixty-two lactating women and their infants participated in the study, 32 lived in the UA and 30 lived in the AA. Breast milk intake was approximately 100 mL higher in the AA than in the UA 799 ± 193 and 707 ± 201 mL/day, respectively (p < 0.05). The concentrations of p,p'- DDT and cypermethrin levels in breast milk were higher in the UA than in the AA (p < 0.05 and p = 0.001, respectively). None of the pyrethroids and organochlorine pesticides studied surpassed the Acceptable Daily Intake (ADI) in milk for humans according to EPA and FAO/WHO. In conclusion, breast milk intake was higher in the AA compared to the UA. The p,p'- DDT and cypermethrin levels in breast milk were higher in the UA compared to the AA. Since pesticide levels in human milk did not exceed the ADI, breastfeeding is still a safe practice and should be encouraged.

Zika virus alters the microRNA expression profile and elicits an RNAi response in Aedes aegypti mosquitoes

Zika virus (ZIKV), a flavivirus transmitted primarily by Aedes aegypti, has recently spread globally in an unprecedented fashion, yet we have a poor understanding of host-microbe interactions in this system. To gain insights into the interplay between ZIKV and the mosquito, we sequenced the small RNA profiles in ZIKV-infected and non-infected Ae. aegypti mosquitoes at 2, 7 and 14 days post-infection. ZIKA induced an RNAi response in the mosquito with virus-derived short interfering RNAs and PIWI-interacting RNAs dramatically increased in abundance post-infection. Further, we found 17 host microRNAs (miRNAs) that were modulated by ZIKV infection at all time points. Strikingly, many of these regulated miRNAs have been reported to have their expression altered by dengue and West Nile viruses, while the response was divergent from that induced by the alphavirus Chikungunya virus in mosquitoes. This suggests that conserved miRNA responses occur within mosquitoes in response to flavivirus infection. This study expands our understanding of ZIKV-vector interactions and provides potential avenues to be further investigated to target ZIKV in the mosquito host.