System-wide approaches to antimicrobial therapy and antimicrobial resistance in the UK: the AMR-X framework

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) threatens human, animal, and environmental health. Acknowledging the urgency of addressing AMR, an opportunity exists to extend AMR action-focused research beyond the confines of an isolated biomedical paradigm. An AMR learning system, AMR-X, envisions a national network of health systems creating and applying optimal use of antimicrobials on the basis of their data collected from the delivery of routine clinical care. AMR-X integrates traditional AMR discovery, experimental research, and applied research with continuous analysis of pathogens, antimicrobial uses, and clinical outcomes that are routinely disseminated to practitioners, policy makers, patients, and the public to drive changes in practice and outcomes. AMR-X uses connected data-to-action systems to underpin an evaluation framework embedded in routine care, continuously driving implementation of improvements in patient and population health, targeting investment, and incentivising innovation. All stakeholders co-create AMR-X, protecting the public from AMR by adapting to continuously evolving AMR threats and generating the information needed for precision patient and population care.

Extrapulmonary nontuberculous mycobacterial infections: a guide for the general physician

Non-tuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) infections predominantly present as pulmonary disease. Although relatively rare, 20-30 % originate from extrapulmonary sites resulting in a wide range of clinical syndromes. Immunocompromised individuals are particularly susceptible. Clinical manifestations include skin and soft-tissue infections, lymphadenitis, musculoskeletal infections and disseminated disease. Diagnosing extrapulmonary NTM is challenging, and management is complex, often involving multiple radiological and microbiological investigations, long courses of combination antibiotic regimens and may require adjuvant surgical interventions. We highlight both the importance of involving NTM experts at an early stage and the role of a multidisciplinary approach in the diagnosis and management of these infections.

Co-design of interventions to improve acute care in hospital: A rapid review of the literature and application of the BASE methodology, a novel system for the design of patient centered service prototypes

Co-design in acute care is challenged by the inability of unwell patients to participate in the process and the often transient nature of acute care. We undertook a rapid review of the literature on co-design, co-production and co-creation of solutions for acute care that were developed with patients. We found limited little evidence for co-design methods in acute care. We adapted a novel design driven method (BASE methodology) that creates stakeholder groups through epistemological criteria for the rapid development of interventions for acute care. We demonstrated feasibility of the methodology in two case studies: A mHealth application with checklists for patients undergoing treatment for cancer and a patient held record for self-clerking on admission to hospital.

Adult life-course trajectories of psychological distress and economic outcomes in midlife during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from the 1958 and 1970 British birth cohorts

PURPOSE

Financial adversity in times of economic recession have been shown to have an unequal effect on individuals with prior mental health problems. This study investigated the relationship between mental health groupings across the adult life-course and change in financial situation and employment status during the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the use of financial measures to mitigate the economic shock.

METHODS

Using two nationally representative British birth cohorts, the National Child Development Study (1958) n = 17,415 and 1970 British Cohort Study n = 17,198, we identified 5 different life-course trajectories of psychological distress from adolescence to midlife which were similar but not identical across the two cohorts. We explored their relation to changes in financial and employment circumstances at different stages during the pandemic from May 2020 to March 2021, applying multinomial logistic regression and controlling for numerous early life covariates, including family socio-economic status (SES). In addition, we ran modified Poisson models with robust standard errors to identify whether different mental health trajectories were supported by government and used other methods to mitigate their financial situation.

RESULTS

We found that the financial circumstances of pre-pandemic trajectories of psychological distress with differential onset, severity, and chronicity across the life-course were exacerbated by the COVID-19 economic shock. The 'stable-high' (persistent severe symptoms) and 'adult-onset' (symptoms developing in 30s, but later decreasing) groups were vulnerable to job loss. Compared to pre-pandemic trajectory groupings with no, minor, or psychological distress symptoms in early adulthood, the 'stable-high', 'midlife-onset' (symptoms developing in midlife), and 'adult-onset' trajectory groups were more likely to seek support from the UK governments economic response package. However, trajectories with pre-pandemic psychological distress were also at greater risk of reducing consumption, dis-saving, relying on increased financial help from family and friends, and also taking payment holidays (agreements with lenders to pause mortgage, credit card or loan payments for a set period) and borrowing.

CONCLUSION

This work highlights different trajectories of pre-pandemic psychological distress, compared to groups with no symptoms were more vulnerable to pandemic-related economic shock and job loss. By adopting unsustainable mitigating measures (borrowing and payment holidays) to support their financial circumstances during COVID-19, these mental health trajectories are at even more risk of lasting adverse impacts and future economic difficulties.

Inpatient COVID-19 vaccination rollout: Improving access to vaccination

BACKGROUND

We were aware of high numbers of inpatients unvaccinated against COVID-19 at Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust (GSTT). Due to this, an inpatient vaccination protocol was set up in July 2021, with initially limited uptake.

METHODS

From October 2021, a multidisciplinary team worked to improve the protocol for inpatient vaccination, with the development of a system that gave ownership to clinical teams.

RESULTS

In 4 months (July 2021 to November 2021), 20 inpatients had been vaccinated at GSTT. Following our intervention, rates of uptake increased, and 34 patients were vaccinated in less than 2 months (November 2021 to January 2022). Forty-five patients who had been referred were discharged without vaccination; attempts were made to invite them to receive a vaccine.

CONCLUSION

An improved pathway and referral process increased the number of inpatient vaccinations delivered. Further work is required in order to ensure that more patients who have been referred are vaccinated.

Latent class trajectories of socioeconomic position over four time points and mortality: the Uppsala Birth Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

The study assessed socioeconomic position (SEP) over four time points and employed a latent class analysis (LCA) to explore the associations between longitudinal SEP trajectories and late-life mortality.

METHODS

We analyzed a cohort of 11 336 members born at the Uppsala University Hospital, Sweden during 1915-29 and followed up for mortality during 1980-2008. SEP was measured at birth, age 10, mid-adulthood and late adulthood. LCA was used to identify SEP trajectories, which were linked to all-cause and cause-specific mortality through Cox proportional hazard regression models.

RESULTS

The age and birth cohort adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of all-cause mortality among the upwardly mobile from middle vs. stable low SEP was 28% lower in men [HR: 0.72; 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.65, 0.81] and 30% lower in women (HR: 0.70; 95% CI: 0.62, 0.78). The corresponding HR of cardiovascular mortality was 30% lower in men (HR: 0.70; 95% CI: 0.60, 0.82) and 31% lower in women (HR: 0.69; 95% CI: 0.58, 0.83). Upward mobility was also associated with decreased HR of mortality from respiratory diseases and injuries among men and from cancer, respiratory diseases, injuries and mental disorders among women. The upwardly mobile were similar to the stable high group in terms of their HRs of mortality from all-causes and cardiovascular, cancer and mental diseases.

CONCLUSIONS

Upward mobility appeared to be protective of mortality from a wide range of causes. Interventions aiming to prevent deaths can benefit from creating optimal conditions earlier in the life course, letting disadvantaged children maximize their socioeconomic and health potentials.

A multisite evaluation of antifungal use in critical care: implications for antifungal stewardship

Background

ICUs are settings of high antifungal consumption. There are few data on prescribing practices in ICUs to guide antifungal stewardship implementation in this setting.

Methods

An antifungal therapy (AFT) service evaluation (15 May-19 November 2019) across ICUs at three London hospitals, evaluating consumption, prescribing rationale, post-prescription review, de-escalation and final invasive fungal infection (IFI) diagnostic classification.

Results

Overall, 6.4% of ICU admissions (305/4781) received AFT, accounting for 11.41 days of therapy/100 occupied bed days (DOT/100 OBD). The dominant prescribing mode was empirical (41% of consumption), followed by targeted (22%), prophylaxis (18%), pre-emptive (12%) and non-invasive (7%). Echinocandins were the most commonly prescribed drug class (4.59 DOT/100 OBD). In total, 217 patients received AFT for suspected or confirmed IFI; 12%, 10% and 23% were classified as possible, probable or proven IFI, respectively. Hence, in 55%, IFI was unlikely. Proven IFI (n = 50) was mostly invasive candidiasis (92%), of which 48% had been initiated on AFT empirically before yeast identification. Where on-site (1 → 3)-β-d-glucan (BDG) testing was available (1 day turnaround), in those with suspected but unproven invasive candidiasis, median (IQR) AFT duration was 10 (7-15) days with a positive BDG (≥80 pg/mL) versus 8 (5-9) days with a negative BDG (<80 pg/mL). Post-prescription review occurred in 79% of prescribing episodes (median time to review 1 [0-3] day). Where suspected IFI was not confirmed, 38% episodes were stopped and 4% de-escalated within 5 days.

Conclusions

Achieving a better balance between promptly treating IFI patients and avoiding inappropriate antifungal prescribing in the ICU requires timely post-prescription review by specialist multidisciplinary teams and improved, evidence-based-risk prescribing strategies incorporating rapid diagnostics to guide AFT start and stop decisions.

Treatment of chronic or relapsing COVID-19 in immunodeficiency

BACKGROUND

Patients with some types of immunodeficiency can experience chronic or relapsing infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). This leads to morbidity and mortality, infection control challenges, and the risk of evolution of novel viral variants. The optimal treatment for chronic coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is unknown.

OBJECTIVE

Our aim was to characterize a cohort of patients with chronic or relapsing COVID-19 disease and record treatment response.

METHODS

We conducted a UK physician survey to collect data on underlying diagnosis and demographics, clinical features, and treatment response of immunodeficient patients with chronic (lasting ≥21 days) or relapsing (≥2 episodes) of COVID-19.

RESULTS

We identified 31 patients (median age 49 years). Their underlying immunodeficiency was most commonly characterized by antibody deficiency with absent or profoundly reduced peripheral B-cell levels; prior anti-CD20 therapy, and X-linked agammaglobulinemia. Their clinical features of COVID-19 were similar to those of the general population, but their median duration of symptomatic disease was 64 days (maximum 300 days) and individual patients experienced up to 5 episodes of illness. Remdesivir monotherapy (including when given for prolonged courses of ≤20 days) was associated with sustained viral clearance in 7 of 23 clinical episodes (30.4%), whereas the combination of remdesivir with convalescent plasma or anti-SARS-CoV-2 mAbs resulted in viral clearance in 13 of 14 episodes (92.8%). Patients receiving no therapy did not clear SARS-CoV-2.

CONCLUSIONS

COVID-19 can present as a chronic or relapsing disease in patients with antibody deficiency. Remdesivir monotherapy is frequently associated with treatment failure, but the combination of remdesivir with antibody-based therapeutics holds promise.

Patient reported outcomes after risk-reducing surgery in patients at increased risk of ovarian cancer

OBJECTIVE

To describe the quality of life of women at an increased risk of ovarian cancer undergoing risk-reducing bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy (RRBSO).

METHODS

Patients evaluated in our gynecologic oncology ambulatory practice between January 2018-December 2019 for an increased risk of ovarian cancer were included. Patients received the EORTC QLQ-C30 and PROMIS emotional and instrumental support questionnaires along with a disease-specific measure (PROM). First and last and pre- and post-surgical PROM responses in each group were compared as were PROMs between at-risk patients and patients with other ovarian diseases.

RESULTS

195 patients with an increased risk of ovarian cancer were identified, 155 completed PROMs (79.5%). BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations were noted in 52.8%. Also included were 469 patients with benign ovarian disease and 455 with ovarian neoplasms. Seventy-two at-risk patients (46.5%) had surgery and 36 had both pre- and post-operative PROMs. Post-operatively, these patients reported significantly less tension (p = 0.011) and health-related worry (p = 0.021) but also decreased levels of health (p = 0.018) and quality of life <7d (0.001), less interest in sex (p = 0.014) and feeling less physically attractive (p = 0.046). No differences in body image or physical/sexual health were noted in at-risk patients who did not have surgery. When compared to patients with ovarian neoplasms, at-risk patients reported lower levels of disease-related life interference and treatment burden, less worry, and better overall health.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with an increased risk of ovarian cancer, RRBSO is associated with decreased health-related worry and tension, increased sexual dysfunction and poorer short-term quality of life. Patients with ovarian neoplasms suffer to a greater extent than at-risk patients and report higher levels of treatment burden and disease-related anxiety.

Health, environmental and distributional impacts of cycling uptake: The model underlying the Propensity to Cycle tool for England and Wales

INTRODUCTION

The Propensity to Cycle Tool (PCT) is a widely used free, open source and publicly available tool for modelling cycling uptake and corresponding health and carbon impacts in England and Wales. In this paper we present the methods for our new individual-level modelling representing all commuters in England and Wales.

METHODS

Scenario commuter cycling potential in the PCT is modelled as a function of route distance and hilliness between home and work. Our new individual-level approach has allowed us to create an additional "Near Market" scenario where age, gender, ethnicity, car ownership and area level deprivation also affect an individual's likelihood of switching to cycling. For this and other scenarios, we calculate the carbon benefits of cycling uptake based on the trip distance and previous mode, while health benefits are additionally affected by hilliness and baseline average mortality risk. This allows the estimation of how health and carbon benefits differ by demographic group as well as by scenario.

RESULTS

While cycle commuting in England and Wales is demographically skewed towards men and white people, women and people from ethnic minorities have greater cycling potential based on route distance and hilliness. Benefits from cycling uptake are distributed differently again. For example, while increasing female cycling mode share is good for equity, each additional female cyclist generates a smaller average health and carbon benefit than a male cyclist. This is based on women's lower baseline mortality risk, shorter commute travel distances, and lower propensity to commute by car than men.

CONCLUSION

We have demonstrated a new approach to modelling that allows for more sophisticated and nuanced assessment of cycling uptake and subsequent benefits, under different scenarios. Health and carbon are increasingly incorporated into appraisal of active travel schemes, valuing important outcomes. However, especially with better representation of demographic factors, this can act as a barrier to equity goals.

Ion temperature measurements from tomographic reconstruction of Doppler spectra in the presence of multi-component flow in two dimensions

A new ion Doppler diagnostic has been constructed to measure ion temperature profiles in the presence of multi-component flow during magnetic reconnection experiments. The inversion technique and diagnostic setup are applicable to axisymmetric plasmas with two-component flow across the measurement cross section, which occurs during magnetic reconnection. The particular design discussed here is optimized for operation on the Magnetic Reconnection eXperiment (MRX) at Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory. To prove the viability of this diagnostic for MRX and the future Facility for Laboratory Reconnection Experiments, measurements have been taken and ion temperature and perpendicular flow profiles have been obtained. The radial velocity on MRX does not contribute to the Doppler shift of the measured spectra but does contribute to the broadening of the spectra, while toroidal flow contributes to both. It is shown that neglecting the radial velocity for v_R = 20 km/s leads to an error in the ion temperature inversion of 20%. Results from MRX discharges are shown, and the impact of radial velocity on ion temperature inversions is discussed.

Cycling injury risk in Britain: A case-crossover study of infrastructural and route environment correlates

This paper examines infrastructural and route environment correlates of cycling injury risk in Britain. We used a case-crossover design, randomly selecting control sites from modelled cyclist routes, comparing these with sites where cyclists were injured. We then used conditional logistic regression for matched case-control groups modelling to compare characteristics of control and injury sites. Intersections were strongly associated with injury risk. High streets were associated with an elevated injury risk in final adjusted models, as was road type being primary, and a more downhill gradient. Lower speed limits and lower motor traffic connectivity were initially associated with lower injury risk, but these effects were no longer statistically significant in adjusted models. Increased road width was associated with increased injury risk in all models. Increased injury risk was associated in all models with presence of bus lane (somewhat mitigated at stops), guardrail, and fuel station or parking lot. Presence of parked cars in street view data raised injury risk in fully adjusted models, as did congestion (measured by low morning peak speeds), while higher volumes of people cycling along the street reduced it. In fully adjusted models, a statistically significant increase in risk was associated with presence of an on-road painted cycle lane. Most cycle lanes or tracks at control and injury sites were very poor, with narrow lanes, shared footways, and lack of protection at junctions. Given findings from other studies showing protective effects of cycle infrastructure, Britain must create higher quality cycle provision, avoiding narrow on-road painted lanes.

A Neutralizing Monoclonal Antibody for Hospitalized Patients with Covid-19

BACKGROUND

LY-CoV555, a neutralizing monoclonal antibody, has been associated with a decrease in viral load and the frequency of hospitalizations or emergency department visits among outpatients with coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19). Data are needed on the effect of this antibody in patients who are hospitalized with Covid-19.

METHODS

In this platform trial of therapeutic agents, we randomly assigned hospitalized patients who had Covid-19 without end-organ failure in a 1:1 ratio to receive either LY-CoV555 or matching placebo. In addition, all the patients received high-quality supportive care as background therapy, including the antiviral drug remdesivir and, when indicated, supplemental oxygen and glucocorticoids. LY-CoV555 (at a dose of 7000 mg) or placebo was administered as a single intravenous infusion over a 1-hour period. The primary outcome was a sustained recovery during a 90-day period, as assessed in a time-to-event analysis. An interim futility assessment was performed on the basis of a seven-category ordinal scale for pulmonary function on day 5.

RESULTS

On October 26, 2020, the data and safety monitoring board recommended stopping enrollment for futility after 314 patients (163 in the LY-CoV555 group and 151 in the placebo group) had undergone randomization and infusion. The median interval since the onset of symptoms was 7 days (interquartile range, 5 to 9). At day 5, a total of 81 patients (50%) in the LY-CoV555 group and 81 (54%) in the placebo group were in one of the two most favorable categories of the pulmonary outcome. Across the seven categories, the odds ratio of being in a more favorable category in the LY-CoV555 group than in the placebo group was 0.85 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.56 to 1.29; P = 0.45). The percentage of patients with the primary safety outcome (a composite of death, serious adverse events, or clinical grade 3 or 4 adverse events through day 5) was similar in the LY-CoV555 group and the placebo group (19% and 14%, respectively; odds ratio, 1.56; 95% CI, 0.78 to 3.10; P = 0.20). The rate ratio for a sustained recovery was 1.06 (95% CI, 0.77 to 1.47).

CONCLUSIONS

Monoclonal antibody LY-CoV555, when coadministered with remdesivir, did not demonstrate efficacy among hospitalized patients who had Covid-19 without end-organ failure. (Funded by Operation Warp Speed and others; TICO ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04501978.).

A Neutralizing Monoclonal Antibody for Hospitalized Patients with Covid-19

BACKGROUND

LY-CoV555, a neutralizing monoclonal antibody, has been associated with a decrease in viral load and the frequency of hospitalizations or emergency department visits among outpatients with coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19). Data are needed on the effect of this antibody in patients who are hospitalized with Covid-19.

METHODS

In this platform trial of therapeutic agents, we randomly assigned hospitalized patients who had Covid-19 without end-organ failure in a 1:1 ratio to receive either LY-CoV555 or matching placebo. In addition, all the patients received high-quality supportive care as background therapy, including the antiviral drug remdesivir and, when indicated, supplemental oxygen and glucocorticoids. LY-CoV555 (at a dose of 7000 mg) or placebo was administered as a single intravenous infusion over a 1-hour period. The primary outcome was a sustained recovery during a 90-day period, as assessed in a time-to-event analysis. An interim futility assessment was performed on the basis of a seven-category ordinal scale for pulmonary function on day 5.

RESULTS

On October 26, 2020, the data and safety monitoring board recommended stopping enrollment for futility after 314 patients (163 in the LY-CoV555 group and 151 in the placebo group) had undergone randomization and infusion. The median interval since the onset of symptoms was 7 days (interquartile range, 5 to 9). At day 5, a total of 81 patients (50%) in the LY-CoV555 group and 81 (54%) in the placebo group were in one of the two most favorable categories of the pulmonary outcome. Across the seven categories, the odds ratio of being in a more favorable category in the LY-CoV555 group than in the placebo group was 0.85 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.56 to 1.29; P = 0.45). The percentage of patients with the primary safety outcome (a composite of death, serious adverse events, or clinical grade 3 or 4 adverse events through day 5) was similar in the LY-CoV555 group and the placebo group (19% and 14%, respectively; odds ratio, 1.56; 95% CI, 0.78 to 3.10; P = 0.20). The rate ratio for a sustained recovery was 1.06 (95% CI, 0.77 to 1.47).

CONCLUSIONS

Monoclonal antibody LY-CoV555, when coadministered with remdesivir, did not demonstrate efficacy among hospitalized patients who had Covid-19 without end-organ failure. (Funded by Operation Warp Speed and others; TICO ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04501978.).

Novel DNA methylation signatures of tobacco smoking with trans-ethnic effects

BACKGROUND

Smoking remains one of the leading preventable causes of death. Smoking leaves a strong signature on the blood methylome as shown in multiple studies using the Infinium HumanMethylation450 BeadChip. Here, we explore novel blood methylation smoking signals on the Illumina MethylationEPIC BeadChip (EPIC) array, which also targets novel CpG-sites in enhancers.

METHOD

A smoking-methylation meta-analysis was carried out using EPIC DNA methylation profiles in 1407 blood samples from four UK population-based cohorts, including the MRC National Survey for Health and Development (NSHD) or 1946 British birth cohort, the National Child Development Study (NCDS) or 1958 birth cohort, the 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS70), and the TwinsUK cohort (TwinsUK). The overall discovery sample included 269 current, 497 former, and 643 never smokers. Replication was pursued in 3425 trans-ethnic samples, including 2325 American Indian individuals participating in the Strong Heart Study (SHS) in 1989-1991 and 1100 African-American participants in the Genetic Epidemiology Network of Arteriopathy Study (GENOA).

RESULTS

Altogether 952 CpG-sites in 500 genes were differentially methylated between smokers and never smokers after Bonferroni correction. There were 526 novel smoking-associated CpG-sites only profiled by the EPIC array, of which 486 (92%) replicated in a meta-analysis of the American Indian and African-American samples. Novel CpG sites mapped both to genes containing previously identified smoking-methylation signals and to 80 novel genes not previously linked to smoking, with the strongest novel signal in SLAMF7. Comparison of former versus never smokers identified that 37 of these sites were persistently differentially methylated after cessation, where 16 represented novel signals only profiled by the EPIC array. We observed a depletion of smoking-associated signals in CpG islands and an enrichment in enhancer regions, consistent with previous results.

CONCLUSION

This study identified novel smoking-associated signals as possible biomarkers of exposure to smoking and may help improve our understanding of smoking-related disease risk.

The use of neoadjuvant chemotherapy in advanced endometrial cancer

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Neoadjuvant chemotherapy is a feasible treatment option in advanced endometrial cancer not amenable to primary surgery.

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High rates of subsequent interval cytoreductive surgery are achievable.

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Cytoreductive surgery after chemotherapy results in improved progression-free and overall survival.

The objective of this retrospective cohort study was to review the use of neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by interval cytoreductive surgery in patients presenting with advanced, unresectable endometrial cancer at two large cancer centers. Patients with advanced endometrial cancer treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy between 2008 and 2015 were identified from an institutional database. Clinical and surgical variables were analyzed and time to recurrence and death was calculated and compared between surgical groups. Thirty-three patients were identified (mean age 64.8 (range 42–86 years)). Overall, 28% of patients had endometrioid histology, 48% serous, 4% clear cell, 4% carcinosarcoma, 12% mixed and 4% other. Ineligibility for primary surgery was due to unresectable disease (85%), comorbidities (6%) and unknown reasons (9%). All patients received neoadjuvant chemotherapy with 91% of patients receiving carboplatin and paclitaxel. On reimaging, 12% of patients had progressed, 76% had a partial response and 3% had a complete response to chemotherapy. 76% of patients underwent interval surgery, with cytoreduction to no visible residual disease achieved in 52%. Overall, 91% of patients recurred and 85% died during follow-up. Patients undergoing surgery after chemotherapy had significantly longer progression-free survival (11.53 vs. 4.99 months, p = 0.0096) and overall survival (24.13 vs. 7.04 months, p = 0.0042) when compared to patients who did not have surgery. Neoadjuvant chemotherapy is a feasible treatment option to allow for interval cytoreductive surgery in patients with advanced endometrial cancer not amenable to primary debulking. Patients who undergo surgery after chemotherapy have significantly improved progression free and overall survival.

Associations of active travel with adiposity among children and socioeconomic differentials: a longitudinal study

OBJECTIVES

Examine longitudinal associations between modes of travel to school and adiposity.

SETTING

The UK.

PARTICIPANTS

8432 children surveyed at ages 7, 11 and 14 years from the UK Millennium Cohort Study.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES

Objective percentage body fat and body mass index (BMI). Transport mode was categorised as private motorised transport, public transport and active transport (walking or cycling). Socioeconomic position (SEP) was measured by household income group and occupational social class. We adjusted analyses for changes in the country of UK, frequency of eating breakfast, self-reported growth spurts, hours of screen time and days per week of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity. Longitudinal (panel) regression models adjusting for individual fixed effects examined associations in changes in mode of travel to school and adiposity, controlling for both time-varying and time-invariant potential confounders. Interaction tests and stratified analyses investigated differences by markers of SEP.

RESULTS

At age 14 years, 26.1% of children (2198) reported using private motorised transport, 35.3% (2979) used public transport and 38.6% (3255) used active transport to get to school. 36.6% (3083) of children changed mode two times between the three waves and 50.7% (4279) changed once. Compared with continuing to use private transport, switching to active transport was associated with a lower BMI (-0.21 kg/m², 95% CI -0.31 to -0.10) and body fat (-0.55%, 95% CI -0.80% to -0.31%). Switching to public transport was associated with lower percentage body fat (-0.43%, 95% CI -0.75% to -0.12%), but associations with BMI did not reach statistical significance (-0.13 kg/m², 95% CI -0.26 to 0.01). Interaction tests showed a trend for these effects to be stronger in more deprived groups, but these interactions did not reach statistical significance.

CONCLUSION

This longitudinal study during a key life course period found switching to physically active forms of travel can have beneficial adiposity impacts; these associations may be more apparent for more disadvantaged children. Increasing active travel has potential to ameliorate inequalities.

Trajectories of socio-economic position over four time points and mortality: The role of gender

Background

Studies investigating the effect of social mobility on mortality in Sweden have used socioeconomic position (SEP) at only two time points and traditional methodological approaches. Our recent study has used SEP at four time points, but not employed latent class analyses when investigating the relationship between SEP trajectories and mortality in later life.

Methods

A cohort of 14,192 live births at Uppsala University Hospital between 1915-1929, of whom 97% were traced through parish records until routine registers became available in the 1960s. 5729 men and 5607 women were alive and living in Sweden in 1980. SEP was measured as social class of the head of household: at birth, in childhood (age 10, +/- five years), in adulthood (age 30-45, in the 1960 Census), and in later life (age 50-65, in the 1980 Census). Latent class analysis was employed to identify social class trajectories and Cox proportional hazard models used to estimate all-cause and cause-specific mortality (data from Causes of Death Register).

Results

Compared to men and women with stable high SEP trajectories, we found a higher risk of death from circulatory disease among men with stable low (HR 1.56, 95%CI 1.29-1.87), stable middle (HR 1.28, 95%CI 1.06-1.55) and upwardly mobile from low (HR 1.35, 95%CI 1.10-1.66) SEP trajectories, as well as in women with stable low or mobile from low to middle SEP trajectory (HR 1.27, 95%CI 1.02-1.59). SEP trajectories and total mortality showed similar, albeit, weaker associations in both genders. SEP trajectories were gender-specific and associations of SEP trajectories with circulatory disease mortality tended to be weaker in women.

Conclusions

Men's and women's socioeconomic position during childhood and over the life course affect their risk of late life all-cause mortality, and death from circulatory disease in particular. Improvements in social conditions at early stages of the life course are likely to contribute to reducing mortality at old age.

Key messages

Men’s and women’s socio-economic position during childhood and over the life course affect their risk of late life all-cause mortality and mortality from circulatory disease in particular. Trajectories of socioeconomic position across life course appear to be related to cause specific and total mortality in a gender specific pattern.

Role of molecular biomarker human papilloma virus (HPV) E6 oncoprotein in cervical cancer screening

OBJECTIVE

The Onco E6™ Cervical Test, based on detection of the E6 oncoprotein of HPV 16 and 18 genotypes is evaluated as a screen for the early detection cervical neoplasia in resource-limited countries.

METHODS

This prospective study from June 2018 to June 2019 evaluated 235 women aged 21-65 years, who came to Gynaecological Oncology Outpatient Department by VIA, cytology, E6 oncoprotein test and by colposcopy. Screen-positive women by any of the tests or women with suspicious findings were further evaluated by biopsy at colposcopy. The McNemar test was used to compare the performance of E6 oncoprotein test with other screening tests.

RESULTS

The E6 oncoprotein positivity rate was 6.8% (n = 16) with 81.25% HPV 16 positive and 18.75% HPV 18 positive. Among VIA positive cases (n = 100), E6 oncoprotein was positive in 9% (p < .001). In histopathology confirmed chronic cervicitis, CIN I, CIN II, CIN III and invasive cervical cancer, E6 test was positive for 2.8%, 4.7%, 25%, 50% and 100% respectively. E6 oncoprotein test had the highest specificity and Positive Predictive Value (PPV; 97% and 75%) compared to VIA (42% and 18%), cytology (95% and 46%) and colposcopy (94% and 59%). Sensitivity of the E6 oncoprotein test for detection of CIN3+ was significantly higher than that of cytology (52% VS 25%) but lower than that of VIA (52% VS 74%).

CONCLUSIONS

The HPV E6 oncoprotein test is highly specific and is an effective triage test to reduce colposcopy referrals for the large number of false positive test outcomes seen with VIA.

Experience of a novel community testing programme for COVID-19 in London: Lessons learnt

We describe the London community testing programme developed for COVID-19, audit its effectiveness and report patient acceptability and patient adherence to isolation guidance, based upon a survey conducted with participants.Any patients meeting the Public Health England (PHE) case definition for COVID-19 who did not require hospital admission were eligible for community testing. 2,053 patients with suspected COVID-19 were tested in the community between January and March 2020. Of those tested, 75 (3.6%) were positive. 88% of patients that completed a patient survey felt safe and 82% agreed that community testing was preferable to hospital admission. 97% were able to remain within their own home during the isolation period but just 41% were able to reliably isolate from other members of their household.The London community testing programme allowed widespread testing for COVID-19 while minimising patient transport, hospital admissions and staff exposures. Community testing was acceptable to patients and preferable to admission to hospital. Patients were able to reliably isolate in their home but not from household contacts. The authors believe in the importance, feasibility and acceptability of community testing for COVID-19 as a part of a package of interventions to mitigate a second wave of infection.

Faecal microbiota transplant to ERadicate gastrointestinal carriage of Antibiotic Resistant Organisms (FERARO): a prospective, randomised placebo-controlled feasibility trial

INTRODUCTION

Antimicrobial resistance is rising, largely due to the indiscriminate use of antimicrobials. The human gut is the largest reservoir of antibiotic resistant bacteria (ARB). Individuals colonised with ARB have the potential to spread these organisms both in the community and hospital settings. Infections with ARB such as extended spectrum beta-lactamase producing enterobacteriales (ESBL-E) and carbapenemase producing enterobacteriales (CPE) are more difficult to treat and are associated with an increased morbidity and mortality. Presently, there is no effective decolonisation strategy for these ARB. Faecal microbiota transplant (FMT) has emerged as a potential strategy for decolonisation of ARB from the human gut, however there is significant uncertainty about the feasibility, effectiveness and safety of using this approach.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Prospective, randomised, patient-blinded, placebo-controlled feasibility trial of FMT to eradicate gastrointestinal carriage of ARB. Eighty patients with a recent history of invasive infection secondary to ESBL-E or CPE and persistent gastrointestinal carriage will be randomised 1:1 to receive encapsulated FMT or placebo. The primary outcome measure is consent rate (as a proportion of patients who fulfil inclusion/exclusion criteria); this will be used to determine if a substantive trial is feasible. Participants will be followed up at 1 week, 1 month, 3 months and 6 months and monitored for adverse events as well as gastrointestinal carriage rates of ARB after intervention.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Research ethics approval was obtained by London-City and East Research Ethics Committee (ref 20/LO/0117). Trial results will be published in a peer-reviewed journal and presented at international conferences.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN registration number 34 467 677 and EudraCT number 2019-001618-41.

EP44 Taking eosinophilia more seriously

Background

Asymptomatic eosinophilia is common in migrants and travellers returning from the tropics, and helminth infection is the most common identifiable cause. Most helminth infections have a benign course, but some carry a risk of serious disease which is relevant to the rheumatologist as administration of immunosuppression can trigger severe reactions such as the potentially fatal hyper infection syndrome in strongyloidiasis. Helminth infections are of increasing relevance in an era of growing migration from endemic regions. A recent audit performed at a central London hospital in HIV outpatients found that of those patients with asymptomatic eosinophilia that were investigated, 28.6% had serological evidence of strongyloidiasis. Unexplained eosinophilia should be evaluated prior to starting immunosuppressive medications, especially in those who have lived in regions endemic for helminth infections. In 2010 the British Infection Society (BIS) published guidelines on the investigation of migrants and returning travellers with asymptomatic eosinophilia. We set out to establish how often our unit investigated unexplained eosinophilia prior to initiating immunosuppressive medication.

Methods

All patients attending rheumatology outpatients at our centre were screened and included if they had a recorded eosinophilia of ≥ 0.8 X109/L between December 2016 to December 2018. Patients were excluded if they did not have a sustained eosinophilia ≥0.8 X109/L &gt; 1 year or if another documented diagnosis was recognised as the cause of eosinophilia. Investigation of asymptomatic eosinophilia was compared to the best practice set out in British Infection Society guideline.

Results

109 patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria. 64 patients did not have a sustained eosinophilia &gt; 1 year and 16 had an alternate diagnosis to explain eosinophilia and so were excluded. The remaining 29 patients were included. 13 patients were male and 16 female. 16 (55%) had a diagnosis of rheumatoid arthritis. 19 (66%) had an eosinophil count &gt; 1 X109/L and 7 (24%) &gt; 2 X109/L. Despite this, eosinophilia was only noted in documentation for 4 (14%) patients. Five (17%) patients had a travel history documented and 4 of them had travelled to the tropics. 3 (10%) patients were investigated for eosinophilia and only 1 (3%) was investigated fully according to the BIS guideline. 14 (48%) patients were on bDMARDs and a further 6 (21%) were on cDMARDs. Of the 14 (48%) on bDMARDS, 7 had ethnic origin in the tropics. Median eosinophil count was 1.2 x109/L. One had travel history taken. All had a negative HIV test. None of the patients on biological therapy had investigations for eosinophilia.

Conclusion

This study confirms the local lack of awareness of eosinophilia. Most patients with unexplained eosinophilia were not identified or investigated, even prior to administration of immunosuppressive medication. With a growing migrant population, the likelihood of serious consequences of ignoring eosinophilia are rising.

Disclosures: Z. Rutter-Locher: None. J. Galloway: None. B. Menon: None. A. Goodman: None.

Cycle training and factors associated with cycling among adolescents in England

BACKGROUND

Cycling has the potential to encourage physical activity as well as advancing societal goals such as reducing carbon emissions; encouraging cycling is therefore a policy goal in many contexts. We analysed individual level data from the whole of England on factors associated with cycling among adolescents, including cycle training delivered by the age of 11 years in primary schools.

METHODS

Data came from the nationally representative Millennium Cohort Study collected when participants were aged 13-15 years (adolescents). We assessed frequency of cycling at least once per week (regular cycling) and used logistic regression to assess how this differed across characteristics including demographic, health and environmental factors, as well as receiving cycle training ('Bikeability') in primary school.

RESULTS

We found that 21.0% of adolescents cycled at least once per week. In fully adjusted analyses, this was more common among boys than girls (32.5% vs. 9.4%, p < 0.001), and those in rural areas than urban areas (24.9% vs. 20.3%, p < 0.001). Adolescents in areas with higher prevalence of adult cycle commuting were more likely to cycle regularly (26.1% in high cycling areas vs. 19.3% in low cycling areas, p < 0.001). Participants offered cycle training in primary school were not more likely to cycle regularly as adolescents (21.7% vs. 22.3%, p = 0.528).

DISCUSSION

Approximately one in five adolescents in England cycles regularly, although being offered cycle training in primary school was not linked to greater cycling. Many of the factors associated with adolescent cycling are similar to those for adults and adolescents are more likely to cycle in areas with higher levels of adult cycling.

Adjuvant bevacizumab for melanoma patients at high risk of recurrence: survival analysis of the AVAST-M trial

Background

Bevacizumab is a recombinant humanised monoclonal antibody to vascular endothelial growth factor shown to improve survival in advanced solid cancers. We evaluated the role of adjuvant bevacizumab in melanoma patients at high risk of recurrence.

Patients and methods

Patients with resected AJCC stage IIB, IIC and III cutaneous melanoma were randomised to receive either adjuvant bevacizumab (7.5 mg/kg i.v. 3 weekly for 1 year) or standard observation. The primary end point was detection of an 8% difference in 5-year overall survival (OS) rate; secondary end points included disease-free interval (DFI) and distant metastasis-free interval (DMFI). Tumour and blood were analysed for prognostic and predictive markers.

Results

Patients (n=1343) recruited between 2007 and 2012 were predominantly stage III (73%), with median age 56 years (range 18–88 years). With 6.4-year median follow-up, 515 (38%) patients had died [254 (38%) bevacizumab; 261 (39%) observation]; 707 (53%) patients had disease recurrence [336 (50%) bevacizumab, 371 (55%) observation]. OS at 5 years was 64% for both groups [hazard ratio (HR) 0.98; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.82–1.16, P = 0.78). At 5 years, 51% were disease free on bevacizumab versus 45% on observation (HR 0.85; 95% CI 0.74–0.99, P = 0.03), 58% were distant metastasis free on bevacizumab versus 54% on observation (HR 0.91; 95% CI 0.78–1.07, P = 0.25). Forty four percent of 682 melanomas assessed had a BRAF^V600 mutation. In the observation arm, BRAF mutant patients had a trend towards poorer OS compared with BRAF wild-type patients (P = 0.06). BRAF mutation positivity trended towards better OS with bevacizumab (P = 0.21).

Conclusions

Adjuvant bevacizumab after resection of high-risk melanoma improves DFI, but not OS. BRAF mutation status may predict for poorer OS untreated and potential benefit from bevacizumab.

Clinical Trial Information

ISRCTN 81261306; EudraCT Number: 2006-005505-64

Cycling injury risk in London: A case-control study exploring the impact of cycle volumes, motor vehicle volumes, and road characteristics including speed limits

Cycling injury risk is an important topic, but few studies explore cycling risk in relation to exposure. This is largely because of a lack of exposure data, in other words how much cycling is done at different locations. This paper helps to fill this gap. It reports a case-control study of cycling injuries in London in 2013-2014, using modelled cyclist flow data alongside datasets covering some characteristics of the London route network. A multilevel binary logistic regression model is used to investigate factors associated with injury risk, comparing injury sites with control sites selected using the modelled flow data. Findings provide support for 'safety in numbers': for each increase of a natural logarithmic unit (2.71828) in cycling flows, an 18% decrease in injury odds was found. Conversely, increased motor traffic volume is associated with higher odds of cycling injury, with one logarithmic unit increase associated with a 31% increase in injury odds. Twenty-mile per hour compared with 30mph speed limits were associated with 21% lower injury odds. Residential streets were associated with reduced injury odds, and junctions with substantially higher injury odds. Bus lanes do not affect injury odds once other factors are controlled for. These data suggest that speed limits of 20 mph may reduce cycling injury risk, as may motor traffic reduction. Further, building cycle routes that generate new cycle trips should generate 'safety in numbers' benefits.

Development of the Impacts of Cycling Tool (ICT): A modelling study and web tool for evaluating health and environmental impacts of cycling uptake

BACKGROUND

A modal shift to cycling has the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and provide health co-benefits. Methods, models, and tools are needed to estimate the potential for cycling uptake and communicate to policy makers the range of impacts this would have.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

The Impacts of Cycling Tool (ICT) is an open source model with a web interface for visualising travel patterns and comparing the impacts of different scenarios of cycling uptake. It is currently applied to England. The ICT allows users to visualise individual and trip-level data from the English National Travel Survey (NTS), 2004-2014 sample, 132,000 adults. It models scenarios in which there is an increase in the proportion of the population who cycle regularly, using a distance-based propensity approach to model which trips would be cycled. From this, the model estimates likely impact on travel patterns, health, and greenhouse gas emissions. Estimates of nonoccupational physical activity are generated by fusing the NTS with the English Active People Survey (APS, 2013-2014, 559,515 adults) to create a synthetic population. Under 'equity' scenarios, we investigate what would happen if cycling levels increased equally among all age and gender categories, as opposed to in proportion to the profile of current cyclists. Under electric assist bike (pedelecs or 'e-bike') scenarios, the probability of cycling longer trips increases, based on the e-bike data from the Netherlands, 2013-2014 Dutch Travel Survey (50,868 adults).Outcomes are presented across domains including transport (trip duration and trips by mode), health (physical activity levels, years of life lost), and car transport-related CO2 emissions. Results can be visualised for the whole population and various subpopulations (region, age, gender, and ethnicity). The tool is available at www.pct.bike/ict. If the proportion of the English population who cycle regularly increased from 4.8% to 25%, then there would be notable reductions in car miles and passenger related CO2 emissions (2.2%) and health benefits (2.1% reduction in years of life lost due to premature mortality). If the new cyclists had access to e-bikes, then mortality reductions would be similar, while the reduction in car miles and CO2 emissions would be larger (2.7%). If take-up of cycling occurred equally by gender and age (under 80 years), then health benefits would be marginally greater (2.2%) but reduction in CO2 slightly smaller (1.8%). The study is limited by the quality and comparability of the input data (including reliance on self-report behaviours). As with all modelling studies, many assumptions are required and potentially important pathways excluded (e.g. injury, air pollution, and noise pollution).

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrates a generalisable approach for using travel survey data to model scenarios of cycling uptake that can be applied to a wide range of settings. The use of individual-level data allows investigation of a wide range of outcomes, and variation across subgroups. Future work should investigate the sensitivity of results to assumptions and omissions, and if this varies across setting.

Estimating city-level travel patterns using street imagery: A case study of using Google Street View in Britain

Background

Street imagery is a promising and growing big data source providing current and historical images in more than 100 countries. Studies have reported using this data to audit road infrastructure and other built environment features. Here we explore a novel application, using Google Street View (GSV) to predict travel patterns at the city level.

Methods

We sampled 34 cities in Great Britain. In each city, we accessed 2000 GSV images from 1000 random locations. We selected archived images from time periods overlapping with the 2011 Census and the 2011–2013 Active People Survey (APS). We manually annotated the images into seven categories of road users. We developed regression models with the counts of images of road users as predictors. The outcomes included Census-reported commute shares of four modes (combined walking plus public transport, cycling, motorcycle, and car), as well as APS-reported past-month participation in walking and cycling.

Results

We found high correlations between GSV counts of cyclists (‘GSV-cyclists’) and cycle commute mode share (r = 0.92)/past-month cycling (r = 0.90). Likewise, GSV-pedestrians was moderately correlated with past-month walking for transport (r = 0.46), GSV-motorcycles was moderately correlated with commute share of motorcycles (r = 0.44), and GSV-buses was highly correlated with commute share of walking plus public transport (r = 0.81). GSV-car was not correlated with car commute mode share (r = –0.12). However, in multivariable regression models, all outcomes were predicted well, except past-month walking. The prediction performance was measured using cross-validation analyses. GSV-buses and GSV-cyclists are the strongest predictors for most outcomes.

Conclusions

GSV images are a promising new big data source to predict urban mobility patterns. Predictive power was the greatest for those modes that varied the most (cycle and bus). With its ability to identify mode of travel and capture street activity often excluded in routinely carried out surveys, GSV has the potential to be complementary to new and traditional data. With half the world’s population covered by street imagery, and with up to 10 years historical data available in GSV, further testing across multiple settings is warranted both for cross-sectional and longitudinal assessments.

Social class, social mobility and alcohol-related disorders in Swedish men and women: A study of four generations

Objectives

To investigate whether and how social class and social mobility in grandparents and parents predict alcohol-related disorders (ARDs) in males and females aged 12+ years, and whether intergenerational social prediction of ARDs varies across time periods.

Methods

The study sample included four successive generations (G) of Swedish families from the Uppsala Birth Cohort Multigenerational Study: G0 born 1851–1912; G1 born 1915–1929; G2 born 1940–1964 and G3 born 1965–1989. Two study populations were created, each consisting of grandparents, parents and offspring: population I ‘G0-G1-G2’ (offspring n = 18 430) and population II ‘G1-G2-G3’ (offspring n = 26 469). Registers and archives provided data on ancestors’ socio-demographic factors and ARD history, together with offspring ARD development between 1964–2008. Cox regression models examined the hazard of offspring ARD development according to grandparental social class and grandparental-to-parental social trajectories, controlling for offspring birth year, grandmother’s and mother’s marital status and parental ARDs.

Results

Disadvantaged grandparental social class predicted increased ARD risk in offspring in population I, although the effect attenuated and became non-significant in males after adjusting for parental characteristics (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 1.80 (95%CI; 1.07, 3.03) in females, HR = 1.32 (95%CI; 0.93, 1.89) in males). In population II, no increase in ARD risk by grandparental social was evident. In both populations, males were at the highest ARD risk if both parents and grandparents belonged to disadvantaged social class (population I: HR = 1.82 (95%CI; 1.22–2.72); population II: HR = 1.68 (95%CI; 1.02–2.76)).

Conclusions

Intergenerational social patterning of ARDs appears to be time-contextual and gender-specific. The role of grandparental social class in developing ARDs in grandchildren seems to decline over time, while persistent grandparental-to-parental social disadvantage remains associated with higher ARD risk in males. When targeting higher risk groups, continuity of familial social disadvantage, particularly among males, should be considered.

Predictors of the frequency and subjective experience of cycling near misses: Findings from the first two years of the UK Near Miss Project

Using 2014 and 2015 data from the UK Near Miss Project, this paper examines the stability of self-report incident rates for cycling near misses across these two years. It further examines the stability of the individual-level predictors of experiencing a near miss, including what influences the scariness of an incident. The paper uses three questions asked for only in 2015, which allow further exploration of factors shaping near miss rates and impacts of incidents. Firstly, a respondent's level of cycling experience; secondly, whether an incident was perceived as deliberate; and finally, whether the respondent themselves described the incident as a 'near miss' (as opposed to only a frightening and/or annoying non-injury incident). Using this data, we find a decline of almost a third in incident rates in 2015 compared to 2014, which we believe is likely to be largely an artefact due to differences in reporting rates. This suggests caution about interpreting small fluctuations in subjectively reported near miss rates. However, in both years near miss rates are many times more frequent than injury collisions. In both years of data collection our findings are very similar in terms of the patterning of incident types, and how frightening different incident categories are, which increases confidence in these findings. We find that new cyclists experience very high incident rates compared to other cyclists, and test a conceptual model explaining how perceived deliberateness, near-miss status, and scariness are connected. For example, incidents that are perceived to be deliberate are more likely to be experienced as very frightening, independent of their 'near miss' status.

Contextualising Safety in Numbers: a longitudinal investigation into change in cycling safety in Britain, 1991-2001 and 2001-2011

INTRODUCTION

The 'Safety in Numbers' (SiN) phenomenon refers to a decline of injury risk per time or distance exposed as use of a mode increases. It has been demonstrated for cycling using cross-sectional data, but little evidence exists as to whether the effect applies longitudinally -that is, whether changes in cycling levels correlate with changes in per-cyclist injury risks.

METHODS

This paper examines cross-sectional and longitudinal SiN effects in 202 local authorities in Britain, using commuting data from 1991, 2001 and 2011 censuses plus police -recorded data on 'killed and seriously injured' (KSI) road traffic injuries. We modelled a log-linear relationship between number of injuries and number of cycle commuters. Second, we conducted longitudinal analysis to examine whether local authorities where commuter cycling increased became safer (and vice versa).

RESULTS

The paper finds a cross-sectional SiN effect exists in the 1991, 2001 and 2011 censuses. The longitudinal analysis also found a SiN effect, that is, places where cycling increased were more likely to become safer than places where it had declined. Finally, these longitudinal results are placed in the context of changes in pedestrian, cyclist and motorist safety. While between 1991 and 2001 all modes saw declines in KSI risk (37% for pedestrians, 36% for cyclists and 27% for motor vehicle users), between 2001 and 2011 pedestrians and motorists saw even more substantial declines (41% and 49%), while risk for cyclists increased by 4%.

CONCLUSION

The SiN mechanism does seem to operate longitudinally as well as cross-sectionally. However, at a national level between 2001-11 it co-existed with an increase in cyclist injury risk both in absolute terms and in relation to other modes.

Health impact modelling of different travel patterns on physical activity, air pollution and road injuries for São Paulo, Brazil

BACKGROUND

São Paulo city, Brazil, faces challenges caused by rapid urbanization. We illustrate how future travel patterns could lead to different health consequences in the city.

METHODS

We evaluated the health impacts of different travel pattern scenarios for the São Paulo adult population by comparing the travel patterns of São Paulo in 2012 with counterfactual scenarios in which the city adopted travel patterns of i) those living in the city's expanded centre; ii) London (2012); iii) a highly motorized São Paulo (SP California); and iv) a visionary São Paulo (SP 2040), with high levels of walking and cycling and low levels of car and motorcycle use. For each scenario we estimated changes in exposure to air pollution, road injury risk, and physical activity. Health outcomes were estimated using disability adjusted life years (DALYs) and premature deaths averted. Sensitivity analyses were performed to identify the main sources of uncertainty.

RESULTS

We found considerable health gains in the SP 2040 scenario (total 63.6k DALYs avoided), with 4.7% of premature deaths from ischemic heart disease avoided from increases in physical activity alone. Conversely, we found substantial health losses in the scenario favouring private transport (SP California, total increase of 54.9k DALYs), with an increase in road traffic deaths and injuries among pedestrians and motorized vehicles. Parameters related to air pollution had the largest impact on uncertainty.

CONCLUSIONS

Shifting travel patterns towards more sustainable transport can provide major health benefits in São Paulo. Reducing the uncertainties in the findings should be a priority for empirical and modelling research on the health impacts of such shifts.