Similar Risk of Kidney Failure among Patients with Blinding Diseases Who Receive Ranibizumab, Aflibercept, and Bevacizumab: An Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics Network Study

PURPOSE

To characterize the incidence of kidney failure associated with intravitreal anti-VEGF exposure; and compare the risk of kidney failure in patients treated with ranibizumab, aflibercept, or bevacizumab.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study across 12 databases in the Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics (OHDSI) network.

SUBJECTS

Subjects aged ≥ 18 years with ≥ 3 monthly intravitreal anti-VEGF medications for a blinding disease (diabetic retinopathy, diabetic macular edema, exudative age-related macular degeneration, or retinal vein occlusion).

METHODS

The standardized incidence proportions and rates of kidney failure while on treatment with anti-VEGF were calculated. For each comparison (e.g., aflibercept versus ranibizumab), patients from each group were matched 1:1 using propensity scores. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the risk of kidney failure while on treatment. A random effects meta-analysis was performed to combine each database's hazard ratio (HR) estimate into a single network-wide estimate.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Incidence of kidney failure while on anti-VEGF treatment, and time from cohort entry to kidney failure.

RESULTS

Of the 6.1 million patients with blinding diseases, 37 189 who received ranibizumab, 39 447 aflibercept, and 163 611 bevacizumab were included; the total treatment exposure time was 161 724 person-years. The average standardized incidence proportion of kidney failure was 678 per 100 000 persons (range, 0-2389), and incidence rate 742 per 100 000 person-years (range, 0-2661). The meta-analysis HR of kidney failure comparing aflibercept with ranibizumab was 1.01 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.70-1.47; P = 0.45), ranibizumab with bevacizumab 0.95 (95% CI, 0.68-1.32; P = 0.62), and aflibercept with bevacizumab 0.95 (95% CI, 0.65-1.39; P = 0.60).

CONCLUSIONS

There was no substantially different relative risk of kidney failure between those who received ranibizumab, bevacizumab, or aflibercept. Practicing ophthalmologists and nephrologists should be aware of the risk of kidney failure among patients receiving intravitreal anti-VEGF medications and that there is little empirical evidence to preferentially choose among the specific intravitreal anti-VEGF agents.

FINANCIAL DISCLOSURES

Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.

Comparative Effectiveness of Second-line Antihyperglycemic Agents for Cardiovascular Outcomes: A Large-scale, Multinational, Federated Analysis of the LEGEND-T2DM Study

Background

SGLT2 inhibitors (SGLT2is) and GLP-1 receptor agonists (GLP1-RAs) reduce major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). However, their effectiveness relative to each other and other second-line antihyperglycemic agents is unknown, without any major ongoing head-to-head trials.

Methods

Across the LEGEND-T2DM network, we included ten federated international data sources, spanning 1992-2021. We identified 1,492,855 patients with T2DM and established cardiovascular disease (CVD) on metformin monotherapy who initiated one of four second-line agents (SGLT2is, GLP1-RAs, dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitor [DPP4is], sulfonylureas [SUs]). We used large-scale propensity score models to conduct an active comparator, target trial emulation for pairwise comparisons. After evaluating empirical equipoise and population generalizability, we fit on-treatment Cox proportional hazard models for 3-point MACE (myocardial infarction, stroke, death) and 4-point MACE (3-point MACE + heart failure hospitalization) risk, and combined hazard ratio (HR) estimates in a random-effects meta-analysis.

Findings

Across cohorts, 16·4%, 8·3%, 27·7%, and 47·6% of individuals with T2DM initiated SGLT2is, GLP1-RAs, DPP4is, and SUs, respectively. Over 5·2 million patient-years of follow-up and 489 million patient-days of time at-risk, there were 25,982 3-point MACE and 41,447 4-point MACE events. SGLT2is and GLP1-RAs were associated with a lower risk for 3-point MACE compared with DPP4is (HR 0·89 [95% CI, 0·79-1·00] and 0·83 [0·70-0·98]), and SUs (HR 0·76 [0·65-0·89] and 0·71 [0·59-0·86]). DPP4is were associated with a lower 3-point MACE risk versus SUs (HR 0·87 [0·79-0·95]). The pattern was consistent for 4-point MACE for the comparisons above. There were no significant differences between SGLT2is and GLP1-RAs for 3-point or 4-point MACE (HR 1·06 [0·96-1·17] and 1·05 [0·97-1·13]).

Interpretation

In patients with T2DM and established CVD, we found comparable cardiovascular risk reduction with SGLT2is and GLP1-RAs, with both agents more effective than DPP4is, which in turn were more effective than SUs. These findings suggest that the use of GLP1-RAs and SGLT2is should be prioritized as second-line agents in those with established CVD.

Funding

National Institutes of Health, United States Department of Veterans Affairs.

Multinational patterns of second line antihyperglycaemic drug initiation across cardiovascular risk groups: federated pharmacoepidemiological evaluation in LEGEND-T2DM

Objective

To assess the uptake of second line antihyperglycaemic drugs among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus who are receiving metformin.

Design

Federated pharmacoepidemiological evaluation in LEGEND-T2DM.

Setting

10 US and seven non-US electronic health record and administrative claims databases in the Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics network in eight countries from 2011 to the end of 2021.

Participants

4.8 million patients (≥18 years) across US and non-US based databases with type 2 diabetes mellitus who had received metformin monotherapy and had initiated second line treatments.

Exposure

The exposure used to evaluate each database was calendar year trends, with the years in the study that were specific to each cohort.

Main outcomes measures

The outcome was the incidence of second line antihyperglycaemic drug use (ie, glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists, sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors, dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors, and sulfonylureas) among individuals who were already receiving treatment with metformin. The relative drug class level uptake across cardiovascular risk groups was also evaluated.

Results

4.6 million patients were identified in US databases, 61 382 from Spain, 32 442 from Germany, 25 173 from the UK, 13 270 from France, 5580 from Scotland, 4614 from Hong Kong, and 2322 from Australia. During 2011-21, the combined proportional initiation of the cardioprotective antihyperglycaemic drugs (glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists and sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors) increased across all data sources, with the combined initiation of these drugs as second line drugs in 2021 ranging from 35.2% to 68.2% in the US databases, 15.4% in France, 34.7% in Spain, 50.1% in Germany, and 54.8% in Scotland. From 2016 to 2021, in some US and non-US databases, uptake of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists and sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors increased more significantly among populations with no cardiovascular disease compared with patients with established cardiovascular disease. No data source provided evidence of a greater increase in the uptake of these two drug classes in populations with cardiovascular disease compared with no cardiovascular disease.

Conclusions

Despite the increase in overall uptake of cardioprotective antihyperglycaemic drugs as second line treatments for type 2 diabetes mellitus, their uptake was lower in patients with cardiovascular disease than in people with no cardiovascular disease over the past decade. A strategy is needed to ensure that medication use is concordant with guideline recommendations to improve outcomes of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Preventative Sensor-Based Remote Monitoring of the Diabetic Foot in Clinical Practice

Diabetes and its complications, particularly diabetic foot ulcers (DFUs), pose significant challenges to healthcare systems worldwide. DFUs result in severe consequences such as amputation, increased mortality rates, reduced mobility, and substantial healthcare costs. The majority of DFUs are preventable and treatable through early detection. Sensor-based remote patient monitoring (RPM) has been proposed as a possible solution to overcome limitations, and enhance the effectiveness, of existing foot care best practices. However, there are limited frameworks available on how to approach and act on data collected through sensor-based RPM in DFU prevention. This perspective article offers insights from deploying sensor-based RPM through digital DFU prevention regimens. We summarize the data domains and technical architecture that characterize existing commercially available solutions. We then highlight key elements for effective RPM integration based on these new data domains, including appropriate patient selection and the need for detailed clinical assessments to contextualize sensor data. Guidance on establishing escalation pathways for remotely monitored at-risk patients and the importance of predictive system management is provided. DFU prevention RPM should be integrated into a comprehensive disease management strategy to mitigate foot health concerns, reduce activity-associated risks, and thereby seek to be synergistic with other components of diabetes disease management. This integrated approach has the potential to enhance disease management in diabetes, positively impacting foot health and the healthspan of patients living with diabetes.

A metadata framework for computational phenotypes

With the burgeoning development of computational phenotypes, it is increasingly difficult to identify the right phenotype for the right tasks. This study uses a mixed-methods approach to develop and evaluate a novel metadata framework for retrieval of and reusing computational phenotypes. Twenty active phenotyping researchers from 2 large research networks, Electronic Medical Records and Genomics and Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics, were recruited to suggest metadata elements. Once consensus was reached on 39 metadata elements, 47 new researchers were surveyed to evaluate the utility of the metadata framework. The survey consisted of 5-Likert multiple-choice questions and open-ended questions. Two more researchers were asked to use the metadata framework to annotate 8 type-2 diabetes mellitus phenotypes. More than 90% of the survey respondents rated metadata elements regarding phenotype definition and validation methods and metrics positively with a score of 4 or 5. Both researchers completed annotation of each phenotype within 60 min. Our thematic analysis of the narrative feedback indicates that the metadata framework was effective in capturing rich and explicit descriptions and enabling the search for phenotypes, compliance with data standards, and comprehensive validation metrics. Current limitations were its complexity for data collection and the entailed human costs.

Predicting patients who are likely to develop Lupus Nephritis of those newly diagnosed with Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

Patients diagnosed with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) suffer from a decreased quality of life, an increased risk of medical complications, and an increased risk of death. In particular, approximately 50% of SLE patients progress to develop lupus nephritis, which oftentimes leads to life-threatening end stage renal disease (ESRD) and requires dialysis or kidney transplant1. The challenge is that lupus nephritis is diagnosed via a kidney biopsy, which is typically performed only after noticeable decreased kidney function, leaving little room for proactive or preventative measures. The ability to predict which patients are most likely to develop lupus nephritis has the potential to shift lupus nephritis disease management from reactive to proactive. We present a clinically useful prediction model to predict which patients with newly diagnosed SLE will go on to develop lupus nephritis in the next five years.

Reproducible variability: assessing investigator discordance across 9 research teams attempting to reproduce the same observational study

OBJECTIVE

Observational studies can impact patient care but must be robust and reproducible. Nonreproducibility is primarily caused by unclear reporting of design choices and analytic procedures. This study aimed to: (1) assess how the study logic described in an observational study could be interpreted by independent researchers and (2) quantify the impact of interpretations' variability on patient characteristics.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Nine teams of highly qualified researchers reproduced a cohort from a study by Albogami et al. The teams were provided the clinical codes and access to the tools to create cohort definitions such that the only variable part was their logic choices. We executed teams' cohort definitions against the database and compared the number of subjects, patient overlap, and patient characteristics.

RESULTS

On average, the teams' interpretations fully aligned with the master implementation in 4 out of 10 inclusion criteria with at least 4 deviations per team. Cohorts' size varied from one-third of the master cohort size to 10 times the cohort size (2159-63 619 subjects compared to 6196 subjects). Median agreement was 9.4% (interquartile range 15.3-16.2%). The teams' cohorts significantly differed from the master implementation by at least 2 baseline characteristics, and most of the teams differed by at least 5.

CONCLUSIONS

Independent research teams attempting to reproduce the study based on its free-text description alone produce different implementations that vary in the population size and composition. Sharing analytical code supported by a common data model and open-source tools allows reproducing a study unambiguously thereby preserving initial design choices.

Characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 patients with and without asthma from the United States, South Korea, and Europe

Objective: Large international comparisons describing the clinical characteristics of patients with COVID-19 are limited. The aim of the study was to perform a large-scale descriptive characterization of COVID-19 patients with asthma.Methods: We included nine databases contributing data from January to June 2020 from the US, South Korea (KR), Spain, UK and the Netherlands. We defined two cohorts of COVID-19 patients ('diagnosed' and 'hospitalized') based on COVID-19 disease codes. We followed patients from COVID-19 index date to 30 days or death. We performed descriptive analysis and reported the frequency of characteristics and outcomes in people with asthma defined by codes and prescriptions.Results: The diagnosed and hospitalized cohorts contained 666,933 and 159,552 COVID-19 patients respectively. Exacerbation in people with asthma was recorded in 1.6-8.6% of patients at presentation. Asthma prevalence ranged from 6.2% (95% CI 5.7-6.8) to 18.5% (95% CI 18.2-18.8) in the diagnosed cohort and 5.2% (95% CI 4.0-6.8) to 20.5% (95% CI 18.6-22.6) in the hospitalized cohort. Asthma patients with COVID-19 had high prevalence of comorbidity including hypertension, heart disease, diabetes and obesity. Mortality ranged from 2.1% (95% CI 1.8-2.4) to 16.9% (95% CI 13.8-20.5) and similar or lower compared to COVID-19 patients without asthma. Acute respiratory distress syndrome occurred in 15-30% of hospitalized COVID-19 asthma patients.Conclusion: The prevalence of asthma among COVID-19 patients varies internationally. Asthma patients with COVID-19 have high comorbidity. The prevalence of asthma exacerbation at presentation was low. Whilst mortality was similar among COVID-19 patients with and without asthma, this could be confounded by differences in clinical characteristics. Further research could help identify high-risk asthma patients.[Box: see text]Supplemental data for this article is available online at https://doi.org/10.1080/02770903.2021.2025392 .

Corrigendum: Vaccine safety surveillance using routinely collected healthcare data-An empirical evaluation of epidemiological designs

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fphar.2022.893484.].

Vaccine Safety Surveillance Using Routinely Collected Healthcare Data-An Empirical Evaluation of Epidemiological Designs

Background: Routinely collected healthcare data such as administrative claims and electronic health records (EHR) can complement clinical trials and spontaneous reports to detect previously unknown risks of vaccines, but uncertainty remains about the behavior of alternative epidemiologic designs to detect and declare a true risk early. Methods: Using three claims and one EHR database, we evaluate several variants of the case-control, comparative cohort, historical comparator, and self-controlled designs against historical vaccinations using real negative control outcomes (outcomes with no evidence to suggest that they could be caused by the vaccines) and simulated positive control outcomes. Results: Most methods show large type 1 error, often identifying false positive signals. The cohort method appears either positively or negatively biased, depending on the choice of comparator index date. Empirical calibration using effect-size estimates for negative control outcomes can bring type 1 error closer to nominal, often at the cost of increasing type 2 error. After calibration, the self-controlled case series (SCCS) design most rapidly detects small true effect sizes, while the historical comparator performs well for strong effects. Conclusion: When applying any method for vaccine safety surveillance we recommend considering the potential for systematic error, especially due to confounding, which for many designs appears to be substantial. Adjusting for age and sex alone is likely not sufficient to address differences between vaccinated and unvaccinated, and for the cohort method the choice of index date is important for the comparability of the groups. Analysis of negative control outcomes allows both quantification of the systematic error and, if desired, subsequent empirical calibration to restore type 1 error to its nominal value. In order to detect weaker signals, one may have to accept a higher type 1 error.

Unraveling COVID-19: A Large-Scale Characterization of 4.5 Million COVID-19 Cases Using CHARYBDIS

Purpose

Routinely collected real world data (RWD) have great utility in aiding the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic response. Here we present the international Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics (OHDSI) Characterizing Health Associated Risks and Your Baseline Disease In SARS-COV-2 (CHARYBDIS) framework for standardisation and analysis of COVID-19 RWD.

Patients and Methods

We conducted a descriptive retrospective database study using a federated network of data partners in the United States, Europe (the Netherlands, Spain, the UK, Germany, France and Italy) and Asia (South Korea and China). The study protocol and analytical package were released on 11th June 2020 and are iteratively updated via GitHub. We identified three non-mutually exclusive cohorts of 4,537,153 individuals with a clinical COVID-19 diagnosis or positive test, 886,193 hospitalized with COVID-19, and 113,627 hospitalized with COVID-19 requiring intensive services.

Results

We aggregated over 22,000 unique characteristics describing patients with COVID-19. All comorbidities, symptoms, medications, and outcomes are described by cohort in aggregate counts and are readily available online. Globally, we observed similarities in the USA and Europe: more women diagnosed than men but more men hospitalized than women, most diagnosed cases between 25 and 60 years of age versus most hospitalized cases between 60 and 80 years of age. South Korea differed with more women than men hospitalized. Common comorbidities included type 2 diabetes, hypertension, chronic kidney disease and heart disease. Common presenting symptoms were dyspnea, cough and fever. Symptom data availability was more common in hospitalized cohorts than diagnosed.

Conclusion

We constructed a global, multi-centre view to describe trends in COVID-19 progression, management and evolution over time. By characterising baseline variability in patients and geography, our work provides critical context that may otherwise be misconstrued as data quality issues. This is important as we perform studies on adverse events of special interest in COVID-19 vaccine surveillance.

We need to work differently in a crisis: peer-professional leadership to redesign physicians’ work

Background

Understanding physician leadership is critical during pandemics and other health crises when formal organisational leaders may be unable to respond expeditiously. This study examined how physician leaders managed to quickly design a new model for acute-care physicians’ work, adopted across four large hospitals in a public health authority in Canada during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods

The research employed a qualitative case study methodology, with inductive analysis of interview transcripts and documents. Shortly after a physician work model redesign, we interviewed key informants: the physician leaders and others who participated in or supported the model’s development. Participants were chosen based on their leadership role and through snowballing. All those who were approached agreed to participate.

Results

A process model describes leadership actions during four phases of work model development (priming, early planning, readying for operations and transition). These actions were: (1) recognising the threat, (2) committing to action, (3) forming and organising, (4) building and relying on relationships, (5) developing supporting processes and (6) designing functions and structure. We offer three additional contributions to knowledge about leadership in a time of crisis: (1) leveraging peer-professional leadership to initiate, formalise and organise change processes, (2) designing a new work model on existing and emerging evidence and (3) building and relying on relationships to unify various actors.

Conclusions

The model of peer-professional leadership can deepen understanding of how to lead professionals. Our findings could assist peer-professional and organisational leaders to encourage quick redesign of professionals’ work in response to new phases of the COVID-19 pandemic or other crises.

Description of a Multi-faceted COVID-19 Pandemic Physician Workforce Plan at a Multi-site Academic Health System

BACKGROUND

The evolving COVID-19 pandemic has and continues to present a threat to health system capacity. Rapidly expanding an existing acute care physician workforce is critical to pandemic response planning in large urban academic health systems.

INTERVENTION

The Medical Emergency-Pandemic Operations Command (MEOC)-a multi-specialty team of physicians, operational leaders, and support staff within an academic Department of Medicine in Calgary, Canada-partnered with its provincial health system to rapidly develop a comprehensive, scalable pandemic physician workforce plan for non-ventilated inpatients with COVID-19 across multiple hospitals. The MEOC Pandemic Plan comprised seven components, each with unique structure and processes.

METHODS

In this manuscript, we describe MEOC's Pandemic Plan that was designed and implemented from March to May 2020 and re-escalated in October 2020. We report on the plan's structure and process, early implementation outcomes, and unforeseen challenges. Data sources included MEOC documents, health system, public health, and physician engagement implementation data.

KEY RESULTS

From March 5 to October 26, 2020, 427 patients were admitted to COVID-19 units in Calgary hospitals. In the initial implementation period (March-May 2020), MEOC communications reached over 2500 physicians, leading to 1446 physicians volunteering to provide care on COVID-19 units. Of these, 234 physicians signed up for hospital shifts, and 227 physicians received in-person personal protective equipment simulation training. Ninety-three physicians were deployed on COVID-19 units at four large acute care hospitals. The resurgence of cases in September 2020 has prompted re-escalation including re-activation of COVID-19 units.

CONCLUSIONS

MEOC leveraged an academic health system partnership to rapidly design, implement, and refine a comprehensive, scalable COVID-19 acute care physician workforce plan whose components are readily applicable across jurisdictions or healthcare crises. This description may guide other institutions responding to COVID-19 and future health emergencies.

Unraveling COVID-19: a large-scale characterization of 4.5 million COVID-19 cases using CHARYBDIS

Background: Routinely collected real world data (RWD) have great utility in aiding the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic response [1,2]. Here we present the international Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics (OHDSI) [3] Characterizing Health Associated Risks, and Your Baseline Disease In SARS-COV-2 (CHARYBDIS) framework for standardisation and analysis of COVID-19 RWD. Methods: We conducted a descriptive cohort study using a federated network of data partners in the United States, Europe (the Netherlands, Spain, the UK, Germany, France and Italy) and Asia (South Korea and China). The study protocol and analytical package were released on 11 th June 2020 and are iteratively updated via GitHub [4]. Findings: We identified three non-mutually exclusive cohorts of 4,537,153 individuals with a clinical COVID-19 diagnosis or positive test, 886,193 hospitalized with COVID-19 , and 113,627 hospitalized with COVID-19 requiring intensive services . All comorbidities, symptoms, medications, and outcomes are described by cohort in aggregate counts, and are available in an interactive website: https://data.ohdsi.org/Covid19CharacterizationCharybdis/. Interpretation: CHARYBDIS findings provide benchmarks that contribute to our understanding of COVID-19 progression, management and evolution over time. This can enable timely assessment of real-world outcomes of preventative and therapeutic options as they are introduced in clinical practice.

Characterizing database granularity using SNOMED-CT hierarchy

Multi-center observational studies require recognition and reconciliation of differences in patient representations arising from underlying populations, disparate coding practices and specifics of data capture. This leads to different granularity or detail of concepts representing the clinical facts. For researchers studying certain populations of interest, it is important to ensure that concepts at the right level are used for the definition of these populations. We studied the granularity of concepts within 22 data sources in the OHDSI network and calculated a composite granularity score for each dataset. Three alternative SNOMED-based approaches for such score showed consistency in classifying data sources into three levels of granularity (low, moderate and high), which correlated with the provenance of data and country of origin. However, they performed unsatisfactorily in ordering data sources within these groups and showed inconsistency for small data sources. Further studies on examining approaches to data source granularity are needed.

Development and initial implementation of electronic clinical decision supports for recognition and management of hospital-acquired acute kidney injury

Background

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is common in hospitalized patients and is associated with poor patient outcomes and high costs of care. The implementation of clinical decision support tools within electronic medical record (EMR) could improve AKI care and outcomes. While clinical decision support tools have the potential to enhance recognition and management of AKI, there is limited description in the literature of how these tools were developed and whether they meet end-user expectations.

Methods

We developed and evaluated the content, acceptability, and usability of electronic clinical decision support tools for AKI care. Multi-component tools were developed within a hospital EMR (Sunrise Clinical Manager™, Allscripts Healthcare Solutions Inc.) currently deployed in Calgary, Alberta, and included: AKI stage alerts, AKI adverse medication warnings, AKI clinical summary dashboard, and an AKI order set. The clinical decision support was developed for use by multiple healthcare providers at the time and point of care on general medical and surgical units. Functional and usability testing for the alerts and clinical summary dashboard was conducted via in-person evaluation sessions, interviews, and surveys of care providers. Formal user acceptance testing with clinical end-users, including physicians and nursing staff, was conducted to evaluate the AKI order set.

Results

Considerations for appropriate deployment of both non-disruptive and interruptive functions was important to gain acceptability by clinicians. Functional testing and usability surveys for the alerts and clinical summary dashboard indicated that the tools were operating as desired and 74% (17/23) of surveyed healthcare providers reported that these tools were easy to use and could be learned quickly. Over three-quarters of providers (18/23) reported that they would utilize the tools in their practice. Three-quarters of the participants (13/17) in user acceptance testing agreed that recommendations within the order set were useful. Overall, 88% (15/17) believed that the order set would improve the care and management of AKI patients.

Conclusions

Development and testing of EMR-based decision support tools for AKI with clinicians led to high acceptance by clinical end-users. Subsequent implementation within clinical environments will require end-user education and engagement in system-level initiatives to use the tools to improve care.

Feasibility and evaluation of a large-scale external validation approach for patient-level prediction in an international data network: validation of models predicting stroke in female patients newly diagnosed with atrial fibrillation

Background

To demonstrate how the Observational Healthcare Data Science and Informatics (OHDSI) collaborative network and standardization can be utilized to scale-up external validation of patient-level prediction models by enabling validation across a large number of heterogeneous observational healthcare datasets.

Methods

Five previously published prognostic models (ATRIA, CHADS₂, CHADS₂VASC, Q-Stroke and Framingham) that predict future risk of stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation were replicated using the OHDSI frameworks. A network study was run that enabled the five models to be externally validated across nine observational healthcare datasets spanning three countries and five independent sites.

Results

The five existing models were able to be integrated into the OHDSI framework for patient-level prediction and they obtained mean c-statistics ranging between 0.57–0.63 across the 6 databases with sufficient data to predict stroke within 1 year of initial atrial fibrillation diagnosis for females with atrial fibrillation. This was comparable with existing validation studies. The validation network study was run across nine datasets within 60 days once the models were replicated. An R package for the study was published at https://github.com/OHDSI/StudyProtocolSandbox/tree/master/ExistingStrokeRiskExternalValidation.

Conclusion

This study demonstrates the ability to scale up external validation of patient-level prediction models using a collaboration of researchers and a data standardization that enable models to be readily shared across data sites. External validation is necessary to understand the transportability or reproducibility of a prediction model, but without collaborative approaches it can take three or more years for a model to be validated by one independent researcher. In this paper we show it is possible to both scale-up and speed-up external validation by showing how validation can be done across multiple databases in less than 2 months. We recommend that researchers developing new prediction models use the OHDSI network to externally validate their models.

Scalable Electronic Phenotyping For Studying Patient Comorbidities

Over 75 million Americans have multiple concurrent chronic conditions and medical decision making for these patients is mostly based on retrospective cohort studies. Current methods to generate cohorts of patients with comorbidities are neither scalable nor generalizable. We propose a supervised machine learning algorithm for learning comorbidity phenotypes without requiring manually created training sets. First, we generated myocardial infarction (MI) and type-2 diabetes (T2DM) patient cohorts using ICD9-based imperfectly labeled samples upon which LASSO logistic regression models were trained. Second, we assessed the effects of training sample size, inclusion of physician input, and inclusion of clinical text features on model performance. Using ICD9 codes as our labeling heuristic, we achieved comparable performance to models created using keywords as labeling heuristic. We found that expert input and higher training sample sizes could compensate for the lack of clinical text derived features. However, our best performing model included clinical text as features with a large training sample size.

Shifting perceptions: a pre-post study to assess the impact of a senior resident rotation bundle

BACKGROUND

Extended duty hours for residents are associated with negative consequences. Strategies to accommodate duty hour restrictions may also have unintended impacts. To eliminate extended duty hours and potentially lessen these impacts, we developed a senior resident rotation bundle that integrates a night float system, educational sessions on sleep hygiene, an electronic handover tool, and a simulation-based medical education curriculum. The aim of this study was to assess internal medicine residents' perceptions of the impact of the bundle on three domains: the senior residents' wellness, ability to deliver quality health care, and medical education experience.

METHODS

This prospective study compared eligible residents' experiences (N = 67) before and after a six-month trial of the bundle at a training program in western Canada. Data was collected using an on-line survey. Pre- and post-intervention scores for the final sample (N = 50) were presented as means and compared using the t-test for paired samples.

RESULTS

Participants felt that most aspects of the three domains were unaffected by the introduction of the bundle. Four improved and two worsened perception shifts emerged post-intervention: less exposure to personal harm, reduced potential for medical error, more successful teaching, fewer disruptions to other rotations, increased conflicting role demands and less staff physician supervision.

CONCLUSIONS

The rotation bundle integrates components that potentially ease some of the perceived negative consequences of night float rotations and duty hour restrictions. Future areas of study should include objective measures of the three domains to validate our study participants' perceptions.