Patterns of Comorbidities and Prescribing and Dispensing of Non-steroidal Anti-inflammatory Drugs (NSAIDs) Among Patients with Osteoarthritis in the USA: Real-World Study

BACKGROUND

Osteoarthritis (OA) is a major cause of chronic pain. Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are analgesics commonly used for musculoskeletal pain; however, NSAIDs can increase the risk of certain adverse events, such as gastrointestinal bleeding, edema, heart failure, and hypertension.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to characterize existing comorbidities among patients with OA. For patients with OA with and without a coexisting medical condition of interest (CMCOI), we estimated the prevalence of prescribing and dispensing NSAIDs pre-OA and post-OA diagnosis.

METHODS

Data from three large administrative claims databases were used to construct an OA retrospective cohort. Databases leveraged were IBM MarketScan Medicare Supplemental Database (MDCR), IBM MarketScan Commercial Database (CCAE), and Optum's de-identified Clinformatics® Data Mart Database (Optum CDM). The OA study population was defined to be those patients who had an OA diagnosis from an inpatient or outpatient visit with at least 365 days of prior observation time in the database during January 2000 through May 2021. Asthma, cardiovascular disorders, renal impairment, and gastrointestinal bleeding risks were the CMCOI of interest. Patients with OA were then classified as having or not having evidence of a CMCOI. For both groups, NSAID dispensing patterns pre-OA and post-OA diagnosis were identified. Descriptive analysis was performed within the Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics framework.

RESULTS

In each database, the proportion of the OA population with at least one CMCOI was nearly 50% or more (48.0% CCAE; 74.4% MDCR; 68.6% Optum CDM). Cardiovascular disease was the most commonly observed CMCOI in each database, and in two databases, nearly one in four patients with OA had two or more CMCOI (23.2% MDCR; 22.6% Optum CDM). Among the OA population with CMCOI, NSAID utilization post-OA diagnosis ranged from 33.0 to 46.2%. Following diagnosis of OA, an increase in the prescribing and dispensing of NSAIDs was observed in all databases, regardless of patient CMCOI presence.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides real-world evidence of the pattern of prescribing and dispensing of NSAIDs among patients with OA with and without CMCOI, which indicates that at least half of patients with OA in the USA have a coexisting condition. These conditions may increase the risk of side effects commonly associated with NSAIDs. Yet, at least 32% of these patients were prescribed and dispensed NSAIDs. These data support the importance of shared decision making between healthcare professionals and patients when considering NSAIDs for the treatment of OA in patients with NSAID-relevant coexisting medical conditions.

Association between prolactin increasing antipsychotic use and the risk of breast cancer: a retrospective observational cohort study in a United States Medicaid population

Introduction

Results of retrospective studies examining the relationship between prolactin increasing antipsychotics and incident breast cancer have been inconsistent. This study assessed the association between use of high prolactin increasing antipsychotics (HPD) and the incidence of breast cancer using best practices in pharmacoepidemiology.

Methods

Using administrative claims data from the MarketScan Medicaid database, schizophrenia patients initiating antipsychotics were identified. Those initiating HPD were compared with new users of non/low prolactin increasing drugs (NPD). Two definitions of breast cancer, two at-risk periods, and two large-scale propensity score (PS) adjustment methods were used in separate analyses. PS models included all previously diagnosed conditions, medication use, demographics, and other available medical history. Negative control outcomes were used for empirical calibration.

Results

Five analysis variants passed all diagnostics for sufficient statistical power and balance across all covariates. Four of the five variants used an intent-to-treat (ITT) approach. Between 4,256 and 6,341 patients were included in each group for the ITT analyses, and patients contributed approximately four years of follow-up time on average. There was no statistically significant association between exposure to HPD and risk of incident breast cancer in any analysis, and hazard ratios remained close to 1.0, ranging from 0.96 (95% confidence interval 0.62 - 1.48) to 1.28 (0.40 - 4.07).

Discussion

Using multiple PS methods, outcome definitions and at-risk periods provided robust and consistent results which found no evidence of an association between use of HPD and risk of breast cancer.

Similar Risk of Kidney Failure among Patients with Blinding Diseases Who Receive Ranibizumab, Aflibercept, and Bevacizumab: An Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics Network Study

PURPOSE

To characterize the incidence of kidney failure associated with intravitreal anti-VEGF exposure; and compare the risk of kidney failure in patients treated with ranibizumab, aflibercept, or bevacizumab.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study across 12 databases in the Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics (OHDSI) network.

SUBJECTS

Subjects aged ≥ 18 years with ≥ 3 monthly intravitreal anti-VEGF medications for a blinding disease (diabetic retinopathy, diabetic macular edema, exudative age-related macular degeneration, or retinal vein occlusion).

METHODS

The standardized incidence proportions and rates of kidney failure while on treatment with anti-VEGF were calculated. For each comparison (e.g., aflibercept versus ranibizumab), patients from each group were matched 1:1 using propensity scores. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the risk of kidney failure while on treatment. A random effects meta-analysis was performed to combine each database's hazard ratio (HR) estimate into a single network-wide estimate.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Incidence of kidney failure while on anti-VEGF treatment, and time from cohort entry to kidney failure.

RESULTS

Of the 6.1 million patients with blinding diseases, 37 189 who received ranibizumab, 39 447 aflibercept, and 163 611 bevacizumab were included; the total treatment exposure time was 161 724 person-years. The average standardized incidence proportion of kidney failure was 678 per 100 000 persons (range, 0-2389), and incidence rate 742 per 100 000 person-years (range, 0-2661). The meta-analysis HR of kidney failure comparing aflibercept with ranibizumab was 1.01 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.70-1.47; P = 0.45), ranibizumab with bevacizumab 0.95 (95% CI, 0.68-1.32; P = 0.62), and aflibercept with bevacizumab 0.95 (95% CI, 0.65-1.39; P = 0.60).

CONCLUSIONS

There was no substantially different relative risk of kidney failure between those who received ranibizumab, bevacizumab, or aflibercept. Practicing ophthalmologists and nephrologists should be aware of the risk of kidney failure among patients receiving intravitreal anti-VEGF medications and that there is little empirical evidence to preferentially choose among the specific intravitreal anti-VEGF agents.

FINANCIAL DISCLOSURES

Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.

Evaluating the impact of alternative phenotype definitions on incidence rates across a global data network

Objective

Developing accurate phenotype definitions is critical in obtaining reliable and reproducible background rates in safety research. This study aims to illustrate the differences in background incidence rates by comparing definitions for a given outcome.

Materials and Methods

We used 16 data sources to systematically generate and evaluate outcomes for 13 adverse events and their overall background rates. We examined the effect of different modifications (inpatient setting, standardization of code set, and code set changes) to the computable phenotype on background incidence rates.

Results

Rate ratios (RRs) of the incidence rates from each computable phenotype definition varied across outcomes, with inpatient restriction showing the highest variation from 1 to 11.93. Standardization of code set RRs ranges from 1 to 1.64, and code set changes range from 1 to 2.52.

Discussion

The modification that has the highest impact is requiring inpatient place of service, leading to at least a 2-fold higher incidence rate in the base definition. Standardization showed almost no change when using source code variations. The strength of the effect in the inpatient restriction is highly dependent on the outcome. Changing definitions from broad to narrow showed the most variability by age/gender/database across phenotypes and less than a 2-fold increase in rate compared to the base definition.

Conclusion

Characterization of outcomes across a network of databases yields insights into sensitivity and specificity trade-offs when definitions are altered. Outcomes should be thoroughly evaluated prior to use for background rates for their plausibility for use across a global network.

Reproducible variability: assessing investigator discordance across 9 research teams attempting to reproduce the same observational study

OBJECTIVE

Observational studies can impact patient care but must be robust and reproducible. Nonreproducibility is primarily caused by unclear reporting of design choices and analytic procedures. This study aimed to: (1) assess how the study logic described in an observational study could be interpreted by independent researchers and (2) quantify the impact of interpretations' variability on patient characteristics.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Nine teams of highly qualified researchers reproduced a cohort from a study by Albogami et al. The teams were provided the clinical codes and access to the tools to create cohort definitions such that the only variable part was their logic choices. We executed teams' cohort definitions against the database and compared the number of subjects, patient overlap, and patient characteristics.

RESULTS

On average, the teams' interpretations fully aligned with the master implementation in 4 out of 10 inclusion criteria with at least 4 deviations per team. Cohorts' size varied from one-third of the master cohort size to 10 times the cohort size (2159-63 619 subjects compared to 6196 subjects). Median agreement was 9.4% (interquartile range 15.3-16.2%). The teams' cohorts significantly differed from the master implementation by at least 2 baseline characteristics, and most of the teams differed by at least 5.

CONCLUSIONS

Independent research teams attempting to reproduce the study based on its free-text description alone produce different implementations that vary in the population size and composition. Sharing analytical code supported by a common data model and open-source tools allows reproducing a study unambiguously thereby preserving initial design choices.

International cohort study indicates no association between alpha-1 blockers and susceptibility to COVID-19 in benign prostatic hyperplasia patients

Purpose: Alpha-1 blockers, often used to treat benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH), have been hypothesized to prevent COVID-19 complications by minimising cytokine storm release. The proposed treatment based on this hypothesis currently lacks support from reliable real-world evidence, however. We leverage an international network of large-scale healthcare databases to generate comprehensive evidence in a transparent and reproducible manner.

Methods: In this international cohort study, we deployed electronic health records from Spain (SIDIAP) and the United States (Department of Veterans Affairs, Columbia University Irving Medical Center, IQVIA OpenClaims, Optum DOD, Optum EHR). We assessed association between alpha-1 blocker use and risks of three COVID-19 outcomes—diagnosis, hospitalization, and hospitalization requiring intensive services—using a prevalent-user active-comparator design. We estimated hazard ratios using state-of-the-art techniques to minimize potential confounding, including large-scale propensity score matching/stratification and negative control calibration. We pooled database-specific estimates through random effects meta-analysis.

Results: Our study overall included 2.6 and 0.46 million users of alpha-1 blockers and of alternative BPH medications. We observed no significant difference in their risks for any of the COVID-19 outcomes, with our meta-analytic HR estimates being 1.02 (95% CI: 0.92–1.13) for diagnosis, 1.00 (95% CI: 0.89–1.13) for hospitalization, and 1.15 (95% CI: 0.71–1.88) for hospitalization requiring intensive services.

Conclusion: We found no evidence of the hypothesized reduction in risks of the COVID-19 outcomes from the prevalent-use of alpha-1 blockers—further research is needed to identify effective therapies for this novel disease.

Seek COVER: using a disease proxy to rapidly develop and validate a personalized risk calculator for COVID-19 outcomes in an international network

Background

We investigated whether we could use influenza data to develop prediction models for COVID-19 to increase the speed at which prediction models can reliably be developed and validated early in a pandemic. We developed COVID-19 Estimated Risk (COVER) scores that quantify a patient’s risk of hospital admission with pneumonia (COVER-H), hospitalization with pneumonia requiring intensive services or death (COVER-I), or fatality (COVER-F) in the 30-days following COVID-19 diagnosis using historical data from patients with influenza or flu-like symptoms and tested this in COVID-19 patients.

Methods

We analyzed a federated network of electronic medical records and administrative claims data from 14 data sources and 6 countries containing data collected on or before 4/27/2020. We used a 2-step process to develop 3 scores using historical data from patients with influenza or flu-like symptoms any time prior to 2020. The first step was to create a data-driven model using LASSO regularized logistic regression, the covariates of which were used to develop aggregate covariates for the second step where the COVER scores were developed using a smaller set of features. These 3 COVER scores were then externally validated on patients with 1) influenza or flu-like symptoms and 2) confirmed or suspected COVID-19 diagnosis across 5 databases from South Korea, Spain, and the United States. Outcomes included i) hospitalization with pneumonia, ii) hospitalization with pneumonia requiring intensive services or death, and iii) death in the 30 days after index date.

Results

Overall, 44,507 COVID-19 patients were included for model validation. We identified 7 predictors (history of cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes, heart disease, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, kidney disease) which combined with age and sex discriminated which patients would experience any of our three outcomes. The models achieved good performance in influenza and COVID-19 cohorts. For COVID-19 the AUC ranges were, COVER-H: 0.69–0.81, COVER-I: 0.73–0.91, and COVER-F: 0.72–0.90. Calibration varied across the validations with some of the COVID-19 validations being less well calibrated than the influenza validations.

Conclusions

This research demonstrated the utility of using a proxy disease to develop a prediction model. The 3 COVER models with 9-predictors that were developed using influenza data perform well for COVID-19 patients for predicting hospitalization, intensive services, and fatality. The scores showed good discriminatory performance which transferred well to the COVID-19 population. There was some miscalibration in the COVID-19 validations, which is potentially due to the difference in symptom severity between the two diseases. A possible solution for this is to recalibrate the models in each location before use.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12874-022-01505-z.

Risk of depression, suicide and psychosis with hydroxychloroquine treatment for rheumatoid arthritis: a multinational network cohort study

OBJECTIVES

Concern has been raised in the rheumatology community regarding recent regulatory warnings that HCQ used in the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic could cause acute psychiatric events. We aimed to study whether there is risk of incident depression, suicidal ideation or psychosis associated with HCQ as used for RA.

METHODS

We performed a new-user cohort study using claims and electronic medical records from 10 sources and 3 countries (Germany, UK and USA). RA patients ≥18 years of age and initiating HCQ were compared with those initiating SSZ (active comparator) and followed up in the short (30 days) and long term (on treatment). Study outcomes included depression, suicide/suicidal ideation and hospitalization for psychosis. Propensity score stratification and calibration using negative control outcomes were used to address confounding. Cox models were fitted to estimate database-specific calibrated hazard ratios (HRs), with estimates pooled where I2 <40%.

RESULTS

A total of 918 144 and 290 383 users of HCQ and SSZ, respectively, were included. No consistent risk of psychiatric events was observed with short-term HCQ (compared with SSZ) use, with meta-analytic HRs of 0.96 (95% CI 0.79, 1.16) for depression, 0.94 (95% CI 0.49, 1.77) for suicide/suicidal ideation and 1.03 (95% CI 0.66, 1.60) for psychosis. No consistent long-term risk was seen, with meta-analytic HRs of 0.94 (95% CI 0.71, 1.26) for depression, 0.77 (95% CI 0.56, 1.07) for suicide/suicidal ideation and 0.99 (95% CI 0.72, 1.35) for psychosis.

CONCLUSION

HCQ as used to treat RA does not appear to increase the risk of depression, suicide/suicidal ideation or psychosis compared with SSZ. No effects were seen in the short or long term. Use at a higher dose or for different indications needs further investigation.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Registered with EU PAS (reference no. EUPAS34497; http://www.encepp.eu/encepp/viewResource.htm? id=34498). The full study protocol and analysis source code can be found at https://github.com/ohdsi-studies/Covid19EstimationHydroxychloroquine2.

Characterising the background incidence rates of adverse events of special interest for covid-19 vaccines in eight countries: multinational network cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To quantify the background incidence rates of 15 prespecified adverse events of special interest (AESIs) associated with covid-19 vaccines.

DESIGN

Multinational network cohort study.

SETTING

Electronic health records and health claims data from eight countries: Australia, France, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States, mapped to a common data model.

PARTICIPANTS

126 661 070 people observed for at least 365 days before 1 January 2017, 2018, or 2019 from 13 databases.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Events of interests were 15 prespecified AESIs (non-haemorrhagic and haemorrhagic stroke, acute myocardial infarction, deep vein thrombosis, pulmonary embolism, anaphylaxis, Bell's palsy, myocarditis or pericarditis, narcolepsy, appendicitis, immune thrombocytopenia, disseminated intravascular coagulation, encephalomyelitis (including acute disseminated encephalomyelitis), Guillain-Barré syndrome, and transverse myelitis). Incidence rates of AESIs were stratified by age, sex, and database. Rates were pooled across databases using random effects meta-analyses and classified according to the frequency categories of the Council for International Organizations of Medical Sciences.

RESULTS

Background rates varied greatly between databases. Deep vein thrombosis ranged from 387 (95% confidence interval 370 to 404) per 100 000 person years in UK CPRD GOLD data to 1443 (1416 to 1470) per 100 000 person years in US IBM MarketScan Multi-State Medicaid data among women aged 65 to 74 years. Some AESIs increased with age. For example, myocardial infarction rates in men increased from 28 (27 to 29) per 100 000 person years among those aged 18-34 years to 1400 (1374 to 1427) per 100 000 person years in those older than 85 years in US Optum electronic health record data. Other AESIs were more common in young people. For example, rates of anaphylaxis among boys and men were 78 (75 to 80) per 100 000 person years in those aged 6-17 years and 8 (6 to 10) per 100 000 person years in those older than 85 years in Optum electronic health record data. Meta-analytic estimates of AESI rates were classified according to age and sex.

CONCLUSION

This study found large variations in the observed rates of AESIs by age group and sex, showing the need for stratification or standardisation before using background rates for safety surveillance. Considerable population level heterogeneity in AESI rates was found between databases.

Implementation of the COVID-19 Vulnerability Index Across an International Network of Health Care Data Sets: Collaborative External Validation Study

Background

SARS-CoV-2 is straining health care systems globally. The burden on hospitals during the pandemic could be reduced by implementing prediction models that can discriminate patients who require hospitalization from those who do not. The COVID-19 vulnerability (C-19) index, a model that predicts which patients will be admitted to hospital for treatment of pneumonia or pneumonia proxies, has been developed and proposed as a valuable tool for decision-making during the pandemic. However, the model is at high risk of bias according to the “prediction model risk of bias assessment” criteria, and it has not been externally validated.

Objective

The aim of this study was to externally validate the C-19 index across a range of health care settings to determine how well it broadly predicts hospitalization due to pneumonia in COVID-19 cases.

Methods

We followed the Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics (OHDSI) framework for external validation to assess the reliability of the C-19 index. We evaluated the model on two different target populations, 41,381 patients who presented with SARS-CoV-2 at an outpatient or emergency department visit and 9,429,285 patients who presented with influenza or related symptoms during an outpatient or emergency department visit, to predict their risk of hospitalization with pneumonia during the following 0-30 days. In total, we validated the model across a network of 14 databases spanning the United States, Europe, Australia, and Asia.

Results

The internal validation performance of the C-19 index had a C statistic of 0.73, and the calibration was not reported by the authors. When we externally validated it by transporting it to SARS-CoV-2 data, the model obtained C statistics of 0.36, 0.53 (0.473-0.584) and 0.56 (0.488-0.636) on Spanish, US, and South Korean data sets, respectively. The calibration was poor, with the model underestimating risk. When validated on 12 data sets containing influenza patients across the OHDSI network, the C statistics ranged between 0.40 and 0.68.

Conclusions

Our results show that the discriminative performance of the C-19 index model is low for influenza cohorts and even worse among patients with COVID-19 in the United States, Spain, and South Korea. These results suggest that C-19 should not be used to aid decision-making during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings highlight the importance of performing external validation across a range of settings, especially when a prediction model is being extrapolated to a different population. In the field of prediction, extensive validation is required to create appropriate trust in a model.

Alpha-1 blockers and susceptibility to COVID-19 in benign prostate hyperplasia patients : an international cohort study

Alpha-1 blockers, often used to treat benign prostate hyperplasia (BPH), have been hypothesized to prevent COVID-19 complications by minimising cytokine storms release. We conducted a prevalent-user active-comparator cohort study to assess association between alpha-1 blocker use and risks of three COVID-19 outcomes: diagnosis, hospitalization, and hospitalization requiring intensive services. Our study included 2.6 and 0.46 million users of alpha-1 blockers and of alternative BPH therapy during the period between November 2019 and January 2020, found in electronic health records from Spain (SIDIAP) and the United States (Department of Veterans Affairs, Columbia University Irving Medical Center, IQVIA OpenClaims, Optum DOD, Optum EHR). We estimated hazard ratios using state-of-the-art techniques to minimize potential confounding, including large-scale propensity score matching/stratification and negative control calibration. We found no differential risk for any of COVID-19 outcome, pointing to the need for further research on potential COVID-19 therapies.

Comparative Risk Assessment of Severe Uterine Bleeding Following Exposure to Direct Oral Anticoagulants: A Network Study Across Four Observational Databases in the USA

BACKGROUND

Antithrombotic therapies are associated with an increased bleeding risk. Abnormal uterine bleeding data have been reported in clinical trials of patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE), but data are limited for patients with atrial fibrillation (AF).

OBJECTIVE

Using real-world data from four US healthcare databases (October 2010 to December 2018), we compared the occurrence of severe uterine bleeding among women newly exposed to rivaroxaban, apixaban, dabigatran, and warfarin stratified by indication.

METHODS

To reduce potential confounding, patients in comparative cohorts were matched on propensity scores. Treatment effect estimates were generated using Cox proportional hazard models for each indication, in each database, and only for pairwise comparisons that met a priori study diagnostics. If estimates were homogeneous (I² < 40%), a meta-analysis across databases was performed and pooled hazard ratios reported.

RESULTS

Data from 363,919 women newly exposed to a direct oral anticoagulant or warfarin with a prior diagnosis of AF (60.8%) or VTE (39.2%) were analyzed. Overall incidence of severe uterine bleeding was low in the populations exposed to direct oral anticoagulants, although relatively higher in the younger VTE population vs the AF population (unadjusted incidence rates: 2.8-33.7 vs 1.9-10.0 events/1000 person-years). In the propensity score-matched AF population, a suggestive, moderately increased risk of severe uterine bleeding was observed for rivaroxaban relative to warfarin [hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals from 0.83 (0.27-2.48) to 2.84 (1.32-6.23) across databases with significant heterogeneity], apixaban [pooled hazard ratio 1.45 (0.91-2.28)], and dabigatran [2.12 (1.01-4.43)], which were sensitive to the time-at-risk period. In the propensity score-matched VTE population, a consistent increased risk of severe uterine bleeding was observed for rivaroxaban relative to warfarin [2.03 (1.19-3.27)] and apixaban [2.25 (1.45-3.41)], which were insensitive to the time-at-risk period.

CONCLUSIONS

For women who need antithrombotic therapy, personalized management strategies with careful evaluation of benefits and risks are required. CLINICALTRIALS.

GOV REGISTRATION

NCT04394234; registered in May 2020.

Deep phenotyping of 34,128 adult patients hospitalised with COVID-19 in an international network study

Comorbid conditions appear to be common among individuals hospitalised with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) but estimates of prevalence vary and little is known about the prior medication use of patients. Here, we describe the characteristics of adults hospitalised with COVID-19 and compare them with influenza patients. We include 34,128 (US: 8362, South Korea: 7341, Spain: 18,425) COVID-19 patients, summarising between 4811 and 11,643 unique aggregate characteristics. COVID-19 patients have been majority male in the US and Spain, but predominantly female in South Korea. Age profiles vary across data sources. Compared to 84,585 individuals hospitalised with influenza in 2014-19, COVID-19 patients have more typically been male, younger, and with fewer comorbidities and lower medication use. While protecting groups vulnerable to influenza is likely a useful starting point in the response to COVID-19, strategies will likely need to be broadened to reflect the particular characteristics of individuals being hospitalised with COVID-19.

Risk of hydroxychloroquine alone and in combination with azithromycin in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis: a multinational, retrospective study

Background

Hydroxychloroquine, a drug commonly used in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis, has received much negative publicity for adverse events associated with its authorisation for emergency use to treat patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. We studied the safety of hydroxychloroquine, alone and in combination with azithromycin, to determine the risk associated with its use in routine care in patients with rheumatoid arthritis.

Methods

In this multinational, retrospective study, new user cohort studies in patients with rheumatoid arthritis aged 18 years or older and initiating hydroxychloroquine were compared with those initiating sulfasalazine and followed up over 30 days, with 16 severe adverse events studied. Self-controlled case series were done to further establish safety in wider populations, and included all users of hydroxychloroquine regardless of rheumatoid arthritis status or indication. Separately, severe adverse events associated with hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin (compared with hydroxychloroquine plus amoxicillin) were studied. Data comprised 14 sources of claims data or electronic medical records from Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, Spain, the UK, and the USA. Propensity score stratification and calibration using negative control outcomes were used to address confounding. Cox models were fitted to estimate calibrated hazard ratios (HRs) according to drug use. Estimates were pooled where the I ² value was less than 0·4.

Findings

The study included 956 374 users of hydroxychloroquine, 310 350 users of sulfasalazine, 323 122 users of hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin, and 351 956 users of hydroxychloroquine plus amoxicillin. No excess risk of severe adverse events was identified when 30-day hydroxychloroquine and sulfasalazine use were compared. Self-controlled case series confirmed these findings. However, long-term use of hydroxychloroquine appeared to be associated with increased cardiovascular mortality (calibrated HR 1·65 [95% CI 1·12-2·44]). Addition of azithromycin appeared to be associated with an increased risk of 30-day cardiovascular mortality (calibrated HR 2·19 [95% CI 1·22-3·95]), chest pain or angina (1·15 [1·05-1·26]), and heart failure (1·22 [1·02-1·45]).

Interpretation

Hydroxychloroquine treatment appears to have no increased risk in the short term among patients with rheumatoid arthritis, but in the long term it appears to be associated with excess cardiovascular mortality. The addition of azithromycin increases the risk of heart failure and cardiovascular mortality even in the short term. We call for careful consideration of the benefit-risk trade-off when counselling those on hydroxychloroquine treatment.

Funding

National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, NIHR Senior Research Fellowship programme, US National Institutes of Health, US Department of Veterans Affairs, Janssen Research and Development, IQVIA, Korea Health Industry Development Institute through the Ministry of Health and Welfare Republic of Korea, Versus Arthritis, UK Medical Research Council Doctoral Training Partnership, Foundation Alfonso Martin Escudero, Innovation Fund Denmark, Novo Nordisk Foundation, Singapore Ministry of Health's National Medical Research Council Open Fund Large Collaborative Grant, VINCI, Innovative Medicines Initiative 2 Joint Undertaking, EU's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme, and European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations.

Deep phenotyping of 34,128 patients hospitalised with COVID-19 and a comparison with 81,596 influenza patients in America, Europe and Asia: an international network study

Background In this study we phenotyped individuals hospitalised with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in depth, summarising entire medical histories, including medications, as captured in routinely collected data drawn from databases across three continents. We then compared individuals hospitalised with COVID-19 to those previously hospitalised with influenza. Methods We report demographics, previously recorded conditions and medication use of patients hospitalised with COVID-19 in the US (Columbia University Irving Medical Center [CUIMC], Premier Healthcare Database [PHD], UCHealth System Health Data Compass Database [UC HDC], and the Department of Veterans Affairs [VA OMOP]), in South Korea (Health Insurance Review & Assessment [HIRA]), and Spain (The Information System for Research in Primary Care [SIDIAP] and HM Hospitales [HM]). These patients were then compared with patients hospitalised with influenza in 2014-19. Results 34,128 (US: 8,362, South Korea: 7,341, Spain: 18,425) individuals hospitalised with COVID-19 were included. Between 4,811 (HM) and 11,643 (CUIMC) unique aggregate characteristics were extracted per patient, with all summarised in an accompanying interactive website (http://evidence.ohdsi.org/Covid19CharacterizationHospitalization/). Patients were majority male in the US (CUIMC: 52%, PHD: 52%, UC HDC: 54%, VA OMOP: 94%,) and Spain (SIDIAP: 54%, HM: 60%), but were predominantly female in South Korea (HIRA: 60%). Age profiles varied across data sources. Prevalence of asthma ranged from 4% to 15%, diabetes from 13% to 43%, and hypertensive disorder from 24% to 70% across data sources. Between 14% and 33% were taking drugs acting on the renin-angiotensin system in the 30 days prior to hospitalisation. Compared to 81,596 individuals hospitalised with influenza in 2014-19, patients admitted with COVID-19 were more typically male, younger, and healthier, with fewer comorbidities and lower medication use. Conclusions We provide a detailed characterisation of patients hospitalised with COVID-19. Protecting groups known to be vulnerable to influenza is a useful starting point to minimize the number of hospital admissions needed for COVID-19. However, such strategies will also likely need to be broadened so as to reflect the particular characteristics of individuals hospitalised with COVID-19.

A multivariate discrete failure time model for the analysis of infant motor development

We develop a multivariate discrete failure time model for the analysis of infant motor development. We use the model to jointly evaluate the time (in months) to achievement of three well-established motor milestones: sitting up, crawling, and walking. The model includes a subject-specific latent factor that reflects underlying heterogeneity in the population and accounts for within-subject dependence across the milestones. The factor loadings and covariate effects are allowed to vary flexibly across milestones, and the milestones are permitted to have unique at-risk intervals corresponding to different developmental windows. We adopt a Bayesian inferential approach and develop a convenient data-augmented Gibbs sampler for posterior computation. We conduct simulation studies to illustrate key features of the model and use the model to analyze data from the Nurture study, a birth cohort examining infant health and development during the first year of life.

Longitudinal associations of gross motor development, motor milestone achievement and weight-for-length z score in a racially diverse cohort of US infants

OBJECTIVES

To investigate longitudinal associations between gross motor development, motor milestone achievement and weight-for-length z scores in a sample of infants. In a secondary aim, we explored potential bidirectional relationships, as higher weight-for-length z scores may impede motor development, and poor motor development may lead to obesity.

DESIGN

The design was an observational birth cohort.

SETTING

We used data from the Nurture study, a birth cohort of predominately black women and their infants residing in the Southeastern USA.

PARTICIPANTS

666 women enrolled their infants in Nurture. We excluded infants with missing data on exposure, outcome or main covariates, leaving a total analytic sample of 425 infants.

PRIMARY OUTCOME

The outcome was weight-for-length z score, measured when infants were 3, 6, 9 12 months.

RESULTS

Among infants, 64.7% were black, 18.8% were white and 16.9% were other/multiple race. Mean (SD) breastfeeding duration was 17.6 (19.7) weeks. Just over one-third (38.5%) had an annual household income of < $20 000. After adjusting for potential confounders, higher motor development score was associated with lower weight-for-length z score (-0.004; 95% CI -0.001 to -0.007; p=0.01), mainly driven by associations among boys (-0.007; 95% CI -0.014 to -0.001; p=0.03) and not girls (0.001; 95% CI -0.005 to 0.008; p=0.62). Earlier crawling was the only milestone associated with a lower weight-for-length z score at 12 months (-0.328; 95% CI -0.585 to 0.072; p=0.012). However, this association appeared to be driven by male infants only (-0.461; 95% CI -0.825 to -0.096; p=0.01). Weight-for-length z score was unrelated to subsequent motor development score and was thus not bidirectional in our sample.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher motor development score and earlier crawling were associated with lower subsequent weight-for-length z score. However, this was primary true for male infants only. These findings contribute to the growing body of evidence suggesting that delayed motor development may be associated with later obesity.

Household chaos during infancy and infant weight status at 12 months

BACKGROUND

Infancy is a critical period for obesity prevention. Emerging evidence links household chaos to poor health outcomes, yet its impact on obesity in infancy is unknown.

OBJECTIVES

We examined associations between household chaos when infants were 6 and 12 months and weight-for-length (WFL) z-score at 12 months, exploring potential mediation by infant sleep and screen time.

METHODS

We examined 401 predominately Black women and infants in the southeastern United States. We conducted multivariable linear regressions examining household chaos and infant WFL z-score, assessing breastfeeding, sleep, screen time as potential mediators.

RESULTS

Among infants, 69.7% were Black and 49.0% were female. Mean breasting duration was 3.7 months. Over half (50.4%) of families had annual household incomes <$20 000. After adjustment for potential confounders, household chaos was associated with infant WFL z-score (0.02; 95% CI 0.001, 0.04; p = 0.04) at 12 months. We did not observe associations between chaos and infant breastfeeding, sleep or screen time.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher household chaos was associated with greater infant weight at 12 months, but there was no evidence of mediation by breastfeeding, sleep or screen time.

The association between method of solicitation and patient permissions for use of surplus tissues and contact for future research

Objective

Obtaining patient permissions for research contact and for surplus tissue use as part of routine clinical practice can improve research participation. This study aims to investigate the difference in patient permissions for use of surplus tissues, and for direct contact for research, using 2 different methods of solicitation.

Methods

An opt-in, population-based approach for gathering research permissions was implemented in 2 methods. The first method, applied a 2-item patient questionnaire delivered through the electronic health record patient portal. The questionnaire composed of 2 questions (1) whether de-identified surplus specimens may be used for research and (2) whether patients could be contacted about research. In the second method, the same questionnaire was physically presented in clinic within the clinical workflow. We used 1 to 1 propensity score matching and multivariate logistic regression to estimate the odds of obtaining permission and the difference between the 2 methods of solicitation.

Results

The propensity score model matched 8044 observations (4114 submissions in each group). Among the in-clinic submission group, 70.13% provided permission for surplus tissue compared with 66.65% in the patient portal submission group (odds ratio [OR] = 1.20; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.09–1.32; P < 0.001). Permission for future research contact was similar among in-clinic (65.07%) and patient portal submission (66.65%) groups (OR = 0.94; 95% CI 0.85–1.03; P = 0.175). These trends were consistent among European Americans and African American patients. However, among patients of other race, higher permission for both future contact (OR = 0.58; 95% CI 0.39–0.86; P < 0.007) and surplus tissue use (OR = 0.65; 95% CI 0.43–0.97; P = 0.036) was observed among patient portal submission.

Discussion

Our findings suggest that in-clinic solicitation of patient permissions may provide the same opportunity to patients who do not use patient portals and may be associated with higher permission rate for surplus tissue. However, this was primary true for European American and African Americans patients. Patients of other race minorities might respond better to online approaches.

Conclusion

Adopting a patient-centric approach that combines in-clinic and portal-based administration may be feasible and promising. Further research is required in this area.

Research participation preferences as expressed through a patient portal: implications of demographic characteristics

Objective

As patient portals are increasingly used for research recruitment, it is important to examine the demographic makeup of research registries that are populated via portals and the factors that influence participation in these registries.

Methods

We examined the response to a routine research preference questionnaire among patients who were enrolled in a patient portal at an academic health center and characterized the sub-population that responded and was tracked in a research preferences registry. We examined the factors that influence choices in two research preferences: future contact for research opportunities and biobanking of de-identified specimens.

Results

Out of 79 834 patients to whom the questionnaire was sent, 32% responded. Of those 74% agreed to future contact and 77% to the biobank preference. We found significantly lower odds of agreement in both preferences in minority populations, especially in the population >65 years of age when stratified by race. Individuals with higher comorbidity indexes had significantly higher odds for agreement.

Discussion

The disparities in volunteerism as expressed by agreement to future contact and willingness to participate in biobanking are exacerbated by lower levels of enrollment in the patient portal by minorities, especially in the oldest age group. Future work should examine other socioeconomic factors and the differences across age groups, sicker individuals, and payer categories.

Conclusion

Although patient portals can be more efficient for recruitment, researchers have to be cognizant of, and proactively address, potential biases when recruiting participants from these registries.

Inflammatory potential of diet and risk of pancreatic cancer in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial

Inflammation plays a central role in pancreatic cancer etiology and can be modulated by diet. We aimed to examine the association between the inflammatory potential of diet, assessed with the Dietary Inflammatory Index (DII®), and pancreatic cancer risk in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial prospective cohort. Our study included 101,449 participants aged 52-78 years at baseline who completed both baseline questionnaire and a diet history questionnaire. Energy-adjusted DII (E-DII) scores were computed based on food and supplement intake. Cox proportional hazards models and time dependent Cox models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) with participants in the lowest E-DII quintile (most anti-inflammatory scores) as referent. After a median 8.5 years of follow-up, 328 pancreatic cancer cases were identified. E-DII scores were not associated with pancreatic cancer risk in the multivariable model (HR_Q5vsQ1  = 0.94; 95% CI = 0.66-1.35; p-trend = 0.43). Time significantly modified the association (p-interaction = 0.01). During follow up <4 years, there was suggestive evidence of an inverse association between E-DII and pancreatic cancer (HR_Q5vsQ1  = 0.60; 95% CI = 0.35-1.02; p-trend = 0.20) while there was a significant positive trend in the follow up ≥4 years (HR_Q5vsQ1  = 1.31; 95% CI = 0.83-2.08; p-trend = 0.03). Similar results were observed for E-DII from food only. Our study does not support an association between inflammatory potential of diet and pancreatic cancer risk; however, heterogeneous results were obtained with different follow-up times. These divergent associations may result from the influences of undetected disease in the short-term.

A population-based approach for implementing change from opt-out to opt-in research permissions

Due to recently proposed changes in the Common Rule regarding the collection of research preferences, there is an increased need for efficient methods to document opt-in research preferences at a population level. Previously, our institution developed an opt-out paper-based workflow that could not be utilized for research in a scalable fashion. This project was designed to demonstrate the feasibility of implementing an electronic health record (EHR)-based active opt-in research preferences program. The first phase of implementation required creating and disseminating a patient questionnaire through the EHR portal to populate discreet fields within the EHR indicating patients’ preferences for future research study contact (contact) and their willingness to allow anonymised use of excess tissue and fluid specimens (biobank). In the second phase, the questionnaire was presented within a clinic nurse intake workflow in an obstetrical clinic. These permissions were tabulated in registries for use by investigators for feasibility studies and recruitment. The registry was also used for research patient contact management using a new EHR encounter type to differentiate research from clinical encounters. The research permissions questionnaire was sent to 59,670 patients via the EHR portal. Within four months, 21,814 responses (75% willing to participate in biobanking, and 72% willing to be contacted for future research) were received. Each response was recorded within a patient portal encounter to enable longitudinal analysis of responses. We obtained a significantly lower positive response from the 264 females who completed the questionnaire in the obstetrical clinic (55% volunteers for biobank and 52% for contact). We demonstrate that it is possible to establish a research permissions registry using the EHR portal and clinic-based workflows. This patient-centric, population-based, opt-in approach documents preferences in the EHR, allowing linkage of these preferences to health record information.

Abstract C66: Screening via multiple PSA measures to detect virulent prostate cancer could provide a way to address fundamental issues in African-American men's health

The dilemma facing individuals wishing to make decisions regarding prostate cancer (PrCA) screening pivots on two opposing outcomes: over-diagnosing indolent cancer and under-diagnosing virulent cancer. In conjunction with limited data on which to draw conclusions, this dilemma formed the basis on which the US Preventive Services Task Force made its decision to not recommend PSA screening. Data driving that decision-making process was derived nearly entirely from European and European-American men, even though African Americans are much more likely to be diagnosed with later-stage, more aggressive disease at younger ages. The discrepancy that we see between the US' highest-world-quintile incidence rates and second-lowest-world-quintile mortality rates may be explained entirely by the presence of high-virulence disease among African Americans.

Clearly, detecting aggressive disease represents a significant public health issue and unmet clinical need. Development and discovery of biomarkers to predict PrCA that is likely to kill if left untreated is the major challenge in PrCA prevention and control. With this background in mind we sought to interrogate a large data set with multiple PSAs measured at regular (i.e., annual) intervals to see if we could predict high-virulence PrCA. Using the PLCO data we showed that with ≥three measures we were able to improve sensitivity and specificity of the PSA test to &gt;97% overall and &gt;99% among African-American men for detecting virulent, clinically relevant high-risk prostate cancer (PSA level ≥ 20ng/ml, cancer that invades prostate capsule, PrCA that involves more than one lobe, or Gleason score &gt;7).

At this juncture, we have begun to address the question of what can be done to distinguish aggressive PrCA in African-American men. We propose creating a cohort of 48,000 individuals who are willing to undergo annual PSA screening with the intention of validating/refining the algorithm that the University of South Carolina team developed using PLCO trial data that combines three or more PSA measures to detect virulent, high-risk PrCA. This cohort also would serve another important purpose. There currently exists no other cohort with a sufficient number of African-American men to address other important cancer-related health issues. So, if designed correctly, this cohort could serve numerous other purposes.

This would be a simple follow-up study design with extensive baseline data collection and follow-up data collected at regular (i.e., annual) intervals. This would require strong community buy-in, commitment to providing information needed for informed decision-making, formulating rules for referring men out for diagnostic workup, and putting procedures in place for data linkage (e.g., to the cancer registries). Twelve institutions in 10 states across the US have expressed interest in being involved.

Currently, there are two, non-mutually exclusive, options for recruitment.

The Veterans Administration (VA) system could be ideal setting for this because: 1. They already have the screening infrastructure in place; 2. There isn't the financial incentive to over-diagnose and over-treat; 3. There is an excellent system of medical records; 4. There are many African-American veterans in the VA system; and 5. The medical home (for subsequent care) already is in place.

The NCI's community oncology research program (NCORP) appears to understand the CBPR imperative. As such, they have good access to local, interested communities and in some regions of the country this includes large AA populations. They have excellent community relations and local “connectivity” that could help to ensure a competent, caring ‘medical home' that would be essential for program viability (i.e., recruitment and follow-up). Depending on geographical particulars, there could be good overlap with the VA. NCORPS could add an important element of academic medicine/ NCI imprimatur to the mix.

Citation Format: James R. Hebert, Abraham Turner, Johnny Payne, Azza Shoaibi. Screening via multiple PSA measures to detect virulent prostate cancer could provide a way to address fundamental issues in African-American men's health. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the Ninth AACR Conference on the Science of Cancer Health Disparities in Racial/Ethnic Minorities and the Medically Underserved; 2016 Sep 25-28; Fort Lauderdale, FL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2017;26(2 Suppl):Abstract nr C66.

Prostate Specific Antigen-Growth Curve Model to Predict High-Risk Prostate Cancer

PURPOSE

To investigate if a prostate specific antigen (PSA)-derived growth curve can predict the occurrence of high-risk prostate cancer (PrCA).

METHODS

Data from 38,340 men randomized to the PrCA screening arm in the prostate, lung, colorectal, and ovarian cancer screening trial (PLCO) were used to develop a PSA growth curve model to estimate PSA rate of change. The model was then used to predict high-risk PrCA in clinical data available from 680,390 veterans seeking routine care. The PSA growth curve was modeled using non-linear mixed regression and the PSA rate was estimated by taking the 1st derivative of the growth curve equation at 1 year prior to diagnosis/exit.

RESULTS

In the PLCO, PrCA incidence was 8.1%; ≈19% of whom had high-risk PrCA. Overall, a PSA rate threshold of 0.37 ng/ml/year had the best combination of sensitivity (97.2%) and specificity (97.3%) for detecting high-risk PrCA. In the VA data; 7,347 men were diagnosed with PrCA; of these 4,315 (58.7%) were diagnosed with high-risk PrCA. The PLCO optimal threshold of 0.37 ng/ml/year produced sensitivity = 95.5% and specificity = 85.2%. An optimal threshold of 0.99 ng/ml/year in AA produced sensitivity = 89.1% and specificity = 80.0%. PSA rate was a better predictor than the single last PSA value.

CONCLUSIONS

PSA growth curves predicted high-risk PrCA in the PLCO data. Fitting the same algorithm in the VA data produced lower specificity. Although encouraging, this finding underlines the need for further research to prospectively test the algorithm, especially for African-American men, the population group at highest risk of aggressive PrCA. Prostate 77:173-184, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Contrasting cardiovascular mortality trends in Eastern Mediterranean populations: Contributions from risk factor changes and treatments

BACKGROUND

Middle income countries are facing an epidemic of non-communicable diseases, especially coronary heart disease (CHD). We used a validated CHD mortality model (IMPACT) to explain recent trends in Tunisia, Syria, the occupied Palestinian territory (oPt) and Turkey.

METHODS

Data on populations, mortality, patient numbers, treatments and risk factor trends from national and local surveys in each country were collated over two time points (1995-97; 2006-09); integrated and analysed using the IMPACT model.

RESULTS

Risk factor trends: Smoking prevalence was high in men, persisting in Syria but decreasing in Tunisia, oPt and Turkey. BMI rose by 1-2 kg/m(2) and diabetes prevalence increased by 40%-50%. Mean systolic blood pressure and cholesterol levels increased in Tunisia and Syria. Mortality trends: Age-standardised CHD mortality rates rose by 20% in Tunisia and 62% in Syria. Much of this increase (79% and 72% respectively) was attributed to adverse trends in major risk factors, occurring despite some improvements in treatment uptake. CHD mortality rates fell by 17% in oPt and by 25% in Turkey, with risk factor changes accounting for around 46% and 30% of this reduction respectively. Increased uptake of community treatments (drug treatments for chronic angina, heart failure, hypertension and secondary prevention after a cardiac event) accounted for most of the remainder.

DISCUSSION

CHD death rates are rising in Tunisia and Syria, whilst oPt and Turkey demonstrate clear falls, reflecting improvements in major risk factors with contributions from medical treatments. However, smoking prevalence remains very high in men; obesity and diabetes levels are rising dramatically.

The use of multiphase nonlinear mixed models to define and quantify long-term changes in serum prostate-specific antigen: data from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial

PURPOSE

To test the hypothesis that the pattern of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) change in men diagnosed with high-risk prostate cancer (PrCA) differs from the pattern evident in men diagnosed with low-risk PrCA or those with no evidence of PrCA.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study from which PSA measures were taken before PrCA diagnosis from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. Data were fitted using a nonlinear regression model to estimate the adjusted absolute and relative (%) change of PSA.

RESULTS

Data on 20,888 men with an average age of 61.61 years were included in the analysis. Of these, the 324 (1.55%) diagnosed with high-risk PrCA had a steeper and earlier transition into an exponential pattern of PSA change than the 1368 men diagnosed with low-risk cancer. At 1 year before diagnosis and/or exit, the average absolute PSA rates were 0.05 ng/mL/year (0.05-0.05), 0.59 (0.52-0.66), and 2.60 (2.11-3.09) for men with no evidence of PrCA, men with low-risk PrCA and those with high-risk PrCA, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The pattern of PSA change with time was significantly different for men who develop high-risk PrCA from those diagnosed with low-risk PrCA. Further research is required to validate this method and its utilization in PrCA screening.

Priority setting for the prevention and control of cardiovascular diseases: multi-criteria decision analysis in four eastern Mediterranean countries

OBJECTIVES

To explore the feasibility of using a simple multi-criteria decision analysis method with policy makers/key stakeholders to prioritize cardiovascular disease (CVD) policies in four Mediterranean countries: Palestine, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey.

METHODS

A simple multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method was piloted. A mixed methods study was used to identify a preliminary list of policy options in each country. These policies were rated by different policymakers/stakeholders against pre-identified criteria to generate a priority score for each policy and then rank the policies.

RESULTS

Twenty-five different policies were rated in the four countries to create a country-specific list of CVD prevention and control policies. The response rate was 100% in each country. The top policies were mostly population level interventions and health systems' level policies.

CONCLUSIONS

Successful collaboration between policy makers/stakeholders and researchers was established in this small pilot study. MCDA appeared to be feasible and effective. Future applications should aim to engage a larger, representative sample of policy makers, especially from outside the health sector. Weighting the selected criteria might also be assessed.

Azithromycin and levofloxacin use and increased risk of cardiac arrhythmia and death

PURPOSE

Azithromycin use has been associated with increased risk of death among patients at high baseline risk, but not for younger and middle-aged adults. The Food and Drug Administration issued a public warning on azithromycin, including a statement that the risks were similar for levofloxacin. We conducted a retrospective cohort study among US veterans to test the hypothesis that taking azithromycin or levofloxacin would increase the risk of cardiovascular death and cardiac arrhythmia compared with persons taking amoxicillin.

METHODS

We studied a cohort of US veterans (mean age, 56.8 years) who received an exclusive outpatient dispensation of either amoxicillin (n = 979,380), azithromycin (n = 594,792), or levofloxacin (n = 201,798) at the Department of Veterans Affairs between September 1999 and April 2012. Azithromycin was dispensed mostly for 5 days, whereas amoxicillin and levofloxacin were dispensed mostly for at least 10 days.

RESULTS

During treatment days 1 to 5, patients receiving azithromycin had significantly increased risk of death (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.48; 95% CI, 1.05-2.09) and serious arrhythmia (HR = 1.77; 95% CI, 1.20-2.62) compared with patients receiving amoxicillin. On treatment days 6 to 10, risks were not statistically different. Compared with patients receiving amoxicillin, patients receiving levofloxacin for days 1 to 5 had a greater risk of death (HR = 2.49, 95% CI, 1.7-3.64) and serious cardiac arrhythmia (HR = 2.43, 95% CI, 1.56-3.79); this risk remained significantly different for days 6 to 10 for both death (HR = 1.95, 95% CI, 1.32-2.88) and arrhythmia (HR = 1.75; 95% CI, 1.09-2.82).

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with amoxicillin, azithromycin resulted in a statistically significant increase in mortality and arrhythmia risks on days 1 to 5, but not 6 to 10. Levofloxacin, which was predominantly dispensed for a minimum of 10 days, resulted in an increased risk throughout the 10-day period.

A cost effectiveness analysis of salt reduction policies to reduce coronary heart disease in four Eastern Mediterranean countries

Background

Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) is rising in middle income countries. Population based strategies to reduce specific CHD risk factors have an important role to play in reducing overall CHD mortality. Reducing dietary salt consumption is a potentially cost-effective way to reduce CHD events. This paper presents an economic evaluation of population based salt reduction policies in Tunisia, Syria, Palestine and Turkey.

Methods and Findings

Three policies to reduce dietary salt intake were evaluated: a health promotion campaign, labelling of food packaging and mandatory reformulation of salt content in processed food. These were evaluated separately and in combination. Estimates of the effectiveness of salt reduction on blood pressure were based on a literature review. The reduction in mortality was estimated using the IMPACT CHD model specific to that country. Cumulative population health effects were quantified as life years gained (LYG) over a 10 year time frame. The costs of each policy were estimated using evidence from comparable policies and expert opinion including public sector costs and costs to the food industry. Health care costs associated with CHDs were estimated using standardized unit costs. The total cost of implementing each policy was compared against the current baseline (no policy). All costs were calculated using 2010 PPP exchange rates. In all four countries most policies were cost saving compared with the baseline. The combination of all three policies (reducing salt consumption by 30%) resulted in estimated cost savings of $235,000,000 and 6455 LYG in Tunisia; $39,000,000 and 31674 LYG in Syria; $6,000,000 and 2682 LYG in Palestine and $1,3000,000,000 and 378439 LYG in Turkey.

Conclusion

Decreasing dietary salt intake will reduce coronary heart disease deaths in the four countries. A comprehensive strategy of health education and food industry actions to label and reduce salt content would save both money and lives.

Use of evidence to support healthy public policy: a policy effectiveness-feasibility loop

Public policy plays a key role in improving population health and in the control of diseases, including non-communicable diseases. However, an evidence-based approach to formulating healthy public policy has been difficult to implement, partly on account of barriers that hinder integrated work between researchers and policy-makers. This paper describes a "policy effectiveness-feasibility loop" (PEFL) that brings together epidemiological modelling, local situation analysis and option appraisal to foster collaboration between researchers and policy-makers. Epidemiological modelling explores the determinants of trends in disease and the potential health benefits of modifying them. Situation analysis investigates the current conceptualization of policy, the level of policy awareness and commitment among key stakeholders, and what actually happens in practice, thereby helping to identify policy gaps. Option appraisal integrates epidemiological modelling and situation analysis to investigate the feasibility, costs and likely health benefits of various policy options. The authors illustrate how PEFL was used in a project to inform public policy for the prevention of cardiovascular diseases and diabetes in four parts of the eastern Mediterranean. They conclude that PEFL may offer a useful framework for researchers and policy-makers to successfully work together to generate evidence-based policy, and they encourage further evaluation of this approach.

Analysing falls in coronary heart disease mortality in the West Bank between 1998 and 2009

OBJECTIVES

To analyse coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality and risk factor trends in the West Bank, occupied Palestinian territory between 1998 and 2009.

DESIGN

Modelling study using CHD IMPACT model.

SETTING

The West Bank, occupied Palestinian territory.

PARTICIPANTS

Data on populations, mortality, patient groups and numbers, treatments and cardiovascular risk factor trends were obtained from national and local surveys, routine national and WHO statistics, and critically appraised. Data were then integrated and analysed using a previously validated CHD model.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

CHD deaths prevented or postponed are the main outcome.

RESULTS

CHD death rates fell by 20% in the West Bank, between 1998 and 2009. Smoking prevalence was initially high in men, 51%, but decreased to 42%. Population blood pressure levels and total cholesterol levels also decreased. Conversely, body mass index rose by 1-2 kg/m(2) and diabetes increased by 2-8%. Population modelling suggested that more than two-thirds of the mortality fall was attributable to decreases in major risk factors, mainly total cholesterol, blood pressure and smoking. Approximately one-third of the CHD mortality decreases were attributable to treatments, particularly for secondary prevention and heart failure. However, the contributions from statins, surgery and angioplasty were consistently small.

CONCLUSIONS

CHD mortality fell by 20% between 1998 and 2009 in the West Bank. More than two-third of this fall was due to decreases in major risk factors, particularly total cholesterol and blood pressure. Our results clearly indicate that risk factor reductions in the general population compared save substantially more lives to specific treatments for individual patients. This emphasizes the importance of population-wide primary prevention strategies.

Serial analysis of gene expression in Plasmodium falciparum reveals the global expression profile of erythrocytic stages and the presence of anti-sense transcripts in the malarial parasite

Serial analysis of gene expression (SAGE) was applied to the malarial parasite Plasmodium falciparum to characterize the comprehensive transcriptional profile of erythrocytic stages. A SAGE library of approximately 8335 tags representing 4866 different genes was generated from 3D7 strain parasites. Basic local alignment search tool analysis of high abundance SAGE tags revealed that a majority (88%) corresponded to 3D7 sequence, and despite the low complexity of the genome, 70% of these highly abundant tags matched unique loci. Characterization of these suggested the major metabolic pathways that are used by the organism under normal culture conditions. Furthermore several tags expressed at high abundance (30% of tags matching to unique loci of the 3D7 genome) were derived from previously uncharacterized open reading frames, demonstrating the use of SAGE in genome annotation. The open platform "profiling" nature of SAGE also lead to the important discovery of a novel transcriptional phenomenon in the malarial pathogen: a significant number of highly abundant tags that were derived from annotated genes (17%) corresponded to antisense transcripts. These SAGE data were validated by two independent means, strand specific reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction and Northern analysis, where antisense messages were detected in both asexual and sexual stages. This finding has implications for transcriptional regulation of Plasmodium gene expression.

Serial analysis of gene expression (SAGE) in Plasmodium falciparum: application of the technique to A-T rich genomes

The advent of high-throughput methods for the analysis of global gene expression, together with the Malaria Genome Project open up new opportunities for furthering our understanding of the fundamental biology and virulence of the malaria parasite. Serial analysis of gene expression (SAGE) is particularly well suited for malarial systems, as the genomes of Plasmodium species remain to be fully annotated. By simultaneously and quantitatively analyzing mRNA transcript profiles from a given cell population, SAGE allows for the discovery of new genes. In this study, one reports the successful application of SAGE in Plasmodium falciparum, 3D7 strain parasites, from which a preliminary library of 6880 tags corresponding to 4146 different genes was generated. It was demonstrated that P. falciparum is amenable to this technique, despite the remarkably high A-T content of its genome. SAGE tags as short as 10 nucleotides were sufficient to uniquely identify parasite transcripts from both nuclear and mitochondrial genomes. Moreover, the skewed A-T content of parasite sequence did not preclude the use of enzymes that are crucial for generating representative SAGE libraries. Finally, a few modifications to DNA extraction and cloning steps of the SAGE protocol proved useful for circumventing specific problems presented by A-T rich genomes.

Neurologic aspects of the 9p- syndrome

The 9p- syndrome is a chromosomal disorder which is easily recognized by its characteristic craniofacial features. Neurologic abnormalities are evident in all reported cases, the most common of which is severe mental retardation. We add another case with unusual features including glaucoma, seizures, and polydactyly, and review the somatic and neurologic features from 41 previously reported cases.