Outpatient treatment of deep venous thrombosis in diverse inner-city patients

PURPOSE

We sought to describe the development and outcomes of a hospital-based program designed to provide safe and effective outpatient treatment to a diverse group of patients with acute deep venous thrombosis.

METHODS

Patients enrolled in the program were usually discharged on the day of or the day after presentation. Low- molecular-weight heparin was administered for a minimum of 5 days and warfarin was given for a minimum of 3 months. The hospital provided low-molecular-weight heparin free of charge to patients. Patients received daily home nursing visits to monitor the prothrombin time, assess compliance, and detect complications. The inpatient and outpatient records of the first 89 consecutive patients enrolled in the program were reviewed. Patients were observed for a 3-month period after enrollment.

RESULTS

The median length of stay was 1 day. Low-molecular-weight heparin was administered for a mean (+/- standard deviation [SD]) of 4.7 +/- 2.4 days at home. Recurrent thromboembolism was noted in 1 patient (1%), major bleeding in 2 patients (2%), and minor bleeding in 2 patients (2%). No patients died or developed thrombocytopenia. Assuming that patients would have been hospitalized for the duration of treatment with low-molecular-weight heparin, the program eliminated a mean of 4.7 days of hospitalization, with an estimated reduction of $1,645 in total health care costs per patient.

CONCLUSION

This hospital-based program to provide outpatient treatment of deep venous thrombosis to a diverse group of inner-city patients achieved a low incidence of adverse events and substantial health care cost savings. Specific strategies, including providing low-molecular-weight heparin free of charge and daily home nursing visits, can be utilized to facilitate access to outpatient treatment and ensure high-quality care.

Leukocyte-reduced red blood cell transfusions in patients with anemia and human immunodeficiency virus infection: the Viral Activation Transfusion Study: a randomized controlled trial

CONTEXT

Allogeneic blood transfusions have immunomodulatory effects and have been associated with activation of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and cytomegalovirus (CMV) in vitro and of HIV in small pilot studies. Retrospective studies suggest that transfusions adversely affect the clinical course of HIV. Data in selected non-HIV-infected patients requiring blood transfusion have suggested clinical benefit with leukocyte-reduced red blood cells (RBCs).

OBJECTIVE

To compare the effects of leukoreduced and unmodified RBC transfusions on survival, complications of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, and relevant laboratory markers in HIV-infected patients.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Double-blind randomized controlled trial conducted in 11 US academic medical centers from July 1995 through June 1999, with a median follow-up of 12 months (24 months in survivors).

PATIENTS

A total of 531 persons infected with HIV and CMV, aged 14 years or older, who required transfusions for anemia; 259 received leukoreduced transfusions and 262 received unmodified transfusions (10 did not receive the planned transfusion).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Survival and change in plasma HIV RNA level 7 days after transfusion, compared by type of transfusion.

RESULTS

At entry, the groups were similar in demographic, clinical, and relevant laboratory characteristics. A total of 3864 RBC units were transfused. Two hundred eighty-nine deaths occurred (151 with leukoreduced transfusion; 138 with unmodified transfusion); median survival was 13.0 and 20.5 months, respectively (relative hazard [RH], 1.20; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.95-1.51; log-rank P =.12). Analyses adjusted for prognostic factors suggested possible worse survival with leukoreduction (RH, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.06-1.72). There was no difference in time to new opportunistic event/death or frequency of transfusion reactions. No changes in plasma HIV RNA level were seen in either group at days 7, 14, 21, or 28, even in patients not taking antiretroviral drugs. There were no differences in trends between groups in CMV DNA, CD4 cell counts, activated (CD38% or human leukocyte antigen-DR) CD8 cell counts, or plasma cytokine levels.

CONCLUSIONS

We found no evidence of HIV, CMV, or cytokine activation following blood transfusion in patients with advanced HIV infection. Leukoreduction provided no clinical benefit in these patients. These data demonstrate the importance of conducting controlled studies of effects of leukoreduction in different patient populations, since smaller studies in other patient populations have suggested leukoreduction may be beneficial.

Preferential suppression of CXCR4-specific strains of HIV-1 by antiviral therapy

To initiate infection, HIV-1 requires a primary receptor, CD4, and a secondary receptor, principally the chemokine receptor CCR5 or CXCR4. Coreceptor usage plays a critical role in HIV-1 disease progression. HIV-1 transmitted in vivo generally uses CCR5 (R5), but later CXCR4 (X4) strains may emerge; this shift heralds CD4+ cell depletion and clinical deterioration. We asked whether antiretroviral therapy can shift HIV-1 populations back to R5 viruses after X4 strains have emerged, in part because treatment has been successful in slowing disease progression without uniformly suppressing plasma viremia. We analyzed the coreceptor usage of serial primary isolates from 15 women with advanced disease who demonstrated X4 viruses. Coreceptor usage was determined by using a HOS-CD4+ cell system, biological and molecular cloning, and sequencing the envelope gene V3 region. By constructing a mathematical model to measure the proportion of virus in a specimen using each coreceptor, we demonstrated that the predominant viral population shifted from X4 at baseline to R5 strains after treatment. Multivariate analyses showed that the shift was independent of changes in plasma HIV-1 RNA level and CD4+ cell count. Hence, combination therapy may lead to a change in phenotypic character as well as in the quantity of HIV-1. Shifts in coreceptor usage may thereby contribute to the clinical efficacy of anti-HIV drugs.

Tuberculosis preventive therapy for HIV-infected people in sub-Saharan Africa is cost-effective

OBJECTIVE

Since antiretroviral therapy is largely unavailable to HIV-infected patients in developing countries and recent clinical trials have shown that tuberculosis (TB) preventive therapy can reduce TB and HIV-associated morbidity and mortality, we studied the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of TB preventive therapy for HIV-infected persons in sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

A Markov model that used results of clinical trials of TB preventive therapy in sub-Saharan Africa and literature-derived medical care costs was used to evaluate three preventive therapy regimens in HIV-infected, tuberculin-positive patients in Uganda: (1) daily isoniazid (INH) for 6 months, (2) daily INH and rifampin (RIF) for 3 months, and (3) twice-weekly RIF and pyrazinamide (PZA) for 2 months.

RESULTS

All three regimens extend life expectancy and reduce the number of TB cases. When only medical care costs are considered, all three preventive therapy regimens cost more than not providing preventive therapy to extend life and prevent active tuberculosis. When medical care and social costs are considered together, 6-months of daily INH treatment will save money relative to no preventive therapy and when the costs associated with treating secondary infections are included, all three preventive therapy regimens are less expensive than no preventive therapy. With the inclusion of secondary infection costs, 6 months of daily INH results in savings of $24.16 per person.

CONCLUSIONS

TB preventive therapy taken by HIV-infected tuberculin reactors in sub-Saharan Africa results in extended life-expectancy, reduction of the incidence of TB and monetary savings in medical care and social costs. TB control policy in sub-Saharan Africa should include preventive therapy.

Cervicovaginal human papillomavirus infection in human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV)-positive and high-risk HIV-negative women

BACKGROUND

Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is associated with precancerous cervical squamous intraepithelial lesions commonly seen among women infected with human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV). We characterized HPV infection in a large cohort of HIV-positive and HIV-negative women participating in the Women's Interagency HIV Study to determine the prevalence of and risk factors for cervicovaginal HPV infection in HIV-positive women.

METHODS

HIV-positive (n = 1778) and HIV-negative (n = 500) women were tested at enrollment for the presence of HPV DNA in a cervicovaginal lavage specimen. Blood samples were tested for HIV antibody status, level of CD4-positive T cells, and HIV RNA load (copies/mL). An interview detailing risk factors was conducted. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed.

RESULTS

Compared with HIV-negative women, HIV-positive women with a CD4+ cell count of less than 200/mm3 were at the highest risk of HPV infection, regardless of HIV RNA load (odds ratio [OR] = 10.13; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 7.32-14.04), followed by women with a CD4+ count greater than 200/mm3 and an HIV RNA load greater than 20,000 copies/mL (OR = 5.78; 95% CI = 4.17-8.08) and women with a CD4+ count greater than 200/mm3 and an HIV RNA load less than 20,000 copies/mL (OR = 3.12; 95% CI = 2.36-4.12), after adjustment for other factors. Other risk factors among HIV-positive women included racial/ethnic background (African-American versus Caucasian, OR = 1.64; 95% CI = 1.19-2.28), current smoking (yes versus no; OR = 1.55; 95% CI = 1.20-1.99), and younger age (age < 30 years versus > or = 40 years; OR = 1.75; 95% CI = 1.23-2.49).

CONCLUSIONS

Although the strongest risk factors of HPV infection among HIV-positive women were indicators of more advanced HIV-related disease, other factors commonly found in studies of HIV-negative women, including racial/ethnic background, current smoking, and age, were important in HIV-positive women as well.

Effect of antiviral drugs and hematopoietic growth factors on in vitro erythropoiesis

BACKGROUND

The purpose of these studies was to improve our understanding of nucleoside analog, antiviral, drug-induced anemia in HIV infection.

METHODS

Peripheral blood erythroid progenitor cells (BFU-E) from HIV-positive (HIV+) patients and normal donors were compared in methylcellulose cultures with erythropoietin, with and without antiviral drugs, and with and without the hematopoietic growth factors, stem cell factor (SCF), hemin, and interleukin-3 (IL-3).

RESULTS

Normal numbers of BFU-E-derived colonies were observed in cultures from HIV+ patients (mean +/- 1 SD BFU-E/10(5) cells plated: normal = 14.1 +/- 7.9, HIV+ = 17.2 +/- 14.2, p = 0.39). The antiviral drugs zidovudine (AZT), dideoxyinosine (ddI), and didehydrodideoxythymidine (d4T) all inhibited erythroid colonies in HIV+ and normal cultures. AZT was the most erythropoietically inhibitory drug (AZT ID50, mean +/- 1 SD for normal cultures = 2.64 +/- 4.15 microM, for HIV+ cultures = 6.28 +/- 10.79 microM, p = 0.24). Hematologic toxicity was less with ddI and d4T. However, doses of ddI and d4T < or = 10 microM inhibited colony growth in 9/14 and 8/12 cultures, respectively, from HIV+ patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Stem cell factor (SCF), hemin, and interleukin-3 (IL-3) increased colony growth in HIV+ and normal cultures. In control cultures, hematopoietic growth factors added singly increased growth 1.3- to 8-fold. Hematopoietic growth factors increased growth even in cultures containing antiviral drugs. In some instances growth factors restored growth to control levels. SCF, hemin, and IL-3 were most effective when combined.

The relationship between study design, results, and reporting of randomized clinical trials of HIV infection

We examined whether the study design of randomized clinical trials for medications against human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) may affect the results and whether the outcomes of these trials affect reporting and publication. We used a database of 71 published randomized HIV-related drug efficacy trials and considered the following study design factors: endpoint definition and method of analysis, masked design, sample size, and duration of follow-up. Large variation was noted in the methods of analysis for surrogate endpoints. Often statistical significance for a surrogate endpoint was not associated with statistical significance for the clinical endpoint or for survival in the same trial, although disagreements in the direction of the treatment effect for surrogate endpoints and survival within individual trials were uncommon. Open-label design seemed to affect the magnitude of the treatment effect for two treatments. The magnitude of the treatment effect in trials of zidovudine monotherapy was inversely related to their sample size, but this probably reflected the confounding effect of longer duration of follow-up in large trials (with a resulting loss of efficacy) rather than publication bias. There was, however, evidence for potential bias in reporting and publication of HIV-related trials. Meta-analyses of published trials for specific treatments demonstrated a sizable treatment benefit for all the examined medications regardless of whether these medications were officially approved, controversial, or abandoned, raising concerns about either publication bias or unjustifiable rejection of potentially useful medications. Compared with trials published in specialized journals, trials published in journals of wide readership were larger (p = 0.001) and 4.4 times more likely to report "positive" results (p = 0.01). We identified several examples of trials with "negative" results that have remained unpublished for a long time. In conclusion, study design factors may have an impact on the magnitude and significance of the treatment effect in HIV-related trials. Bias in reporting can further affect the information that these studies provide.

Hypothalamic-pituitary axis dysfunction in critically ill patients with a low free thyroxine index

The purpose of this study is to investigate the association of hypothalamic-pituitary axis abnormalities with the free thyroxine index (FTI) in critically ill patients. Fourteen critically ill patients and twenty healthy volunteers were studied using combined anterior pituitary gland testing with CRF, GHRH, TRH, and GnRH. The subjects were grouped as follows: I-healthy volunteers; II-sick/normal FTI; and III-sick/low FTI. Serial measurements of hormones were performed over a two-hour interval and the following parameters were measured: baseline level, response amplitude and time to maximal response. Response velocities and area-under-the-curves (integrated responses) were also computed. Group III had a longer mean ICU duration prior to testing than group II. Urinary cortisol, serum cortisol and serum PRL levels were elevated in groups II and III. However, group III had lower baseline ACTH levels, slower ACTH and TSH response velocities and decreased PRL integrated responses. Cortisol response parameters were similar between groups II and III. There were no differences in LH, FSH or GH response velocities or integrated responses among the 3 groups. These data confirm that critically ill patients develop hyperprolactinemia and hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis activation but when a low FTI exists, a plurality of changes occur reflected by attenuated PRL, TSH and ACTH responses despite unaffected adrenal cortisol output.

Predictors and impact of patients lost to follow-up in a long-term randomized trial of immediate versus deferred antiretroviral treatment

We studied predictors for losses to follow-up and the impact of such losses in the AIDS Clinical Trials Group 019 protocol, a long-term randomized trial of immediate versus deferred antiretroviral therapy in asymptomatic HIV-1-infected patients with >500 CD4 cells/mm3. The trial was selected because of its key importance in determining guidelines for antiretroviral therapy, and because it had the longest follow-up among all antiretroviral trials and the largest percentage of patients whose vital status was unknown at study end. Younger age, a history of parenteral drug use, and nonwhite race were associated with higher rates of loss to follow-up, but race was not an important predictor after adjusting for clinical site. There was large and statistically significant variability in the rates of losses among different clinical sites (p < 0.001). Patient retention was significantly better in clinical sites that enrolled many participants, with 25% of enrollees lost to follow-up in sites enrolling >100 patients and 44% in sites enrolling <33 patients each. As a group, patients lost to follow-up after the 2nd year had steeper declines of CD4 cell counts, and a significantly larger proportion had reached a CD4 cell count <300/mm3 in the year before being lost, compared with patients remaining in the study. Losses to follow-up probably decreased substantially the observed number of primary endpoints, curtailed the power of the trial to demonstrate any difference between immediate and deferred initiation of antiretroviral therapy, and may have introduced large bias in the estimated hazard ratio for the primary endpoint and its statistical significance.

Cost-effectiveness of cytomegalovirus (CMV) disease prevention in patients with AIDS: oral ganciclovir and CMV polymerase chain reaction testing

OBJECTIVE

To perform a cost-effectiveness analysis of strategies to prevent cytomegalovirus (CMV) disease.

METHOD

Markov model and published data.

PATIENTS

Hypothetical HIV-infected patients with CD4 cell counts < or = 50 x 10(6)/l and positive CMV serologies.

INTERVENTIONS

Oral ganciclovir daily versus plasma CMV DNA polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing every 3 months with oral ganciclovir for patients with positive tests.

OUTCOME MEASURES

The number of CMV disease cases prevented by the interventions, life expectancy, disease-free life expectancy, and the cost to extend life by 1 year.

RESULTS

Oral ganciclovir preventive therapy reduces the lifetime number of CMV disease cases by 50 per 1000 cohort, extends life expectancy by 5 days and disease-free life expectancy by 18 days, and costs US$ 1,762,517 per year of life extended. Periodic PCR testing reduces the lifetime number of CMV disease cases by eight per 1000 cohort, extends life expectancy by 1 day and disease-free life expectancy by 3 days, and costs US$ 495,158 per year of life extended. The prevention strategies could be acceptably cost effective only under a combination of optimistic assumptions and reduced costs.

CONCLUSIONS

Oral ganciclovir preventive therapy and periodic plasma testing for CMV PCR with oral ganciclovir for those with positive tests result in small benefits at great cost. They are not cost-effective prevention strategies for persons with advanced HIV infection and positive CMV serologies.

BCG vaccination to prevent tuberculosis in health care workers: a decision analysis

OBJECTIVE

To perform a decision analysis to determine the optimal strategy to prevent tuberculosis (TB) in health care workers with negative tuberculin skin tests.

METHODS

We used a Markov model to study the occurrence of events each year and compared BCG vaccination to annual tuberculin testing plus isoniazid (INH) preventive therapy for those who become skin test positive. The outcome measures studied were the number of cases and deaths from TB and BCG and/or INH adverse reactions over 10 years.

RESULTS

Annual tuberculin testing decreases the number of TB cases by 9% and BCG vaccination decreases the number by 49%, relative to no prevention intervention. BCG vaccination results in fewer deaths than annual tuberculin testing if the workplace incidence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection is greater than 0.06%, BCG vaccination effectiveness exceeds 3%, or the rate of fatal BCG adverse reactions is less than 15 times the rate reported in the literature.

CONCLUSIONS

BCG vaccination results in less morbidity and mortality than annual tuberculin skin testing for health care workers in workplaces with documented TB transmission despite comprehensive infection control policies and procedures. Current policy on the prevention of TB among health care workers should be reconsidered.

Meta-analysis: an update

A fairly new type of research, termed meta-analysis, attempts to analyze and combine the results of previous reports. In 1992 we updated our 1987 survey of 86 meta-analyses of randomized control trial reports in the english language literature with an additional 78. We evaluated the quality of these meta-analyses using a scoring method that lists 23 items in six major areas: study design, combinability, control of bias, statistical analysis, sensitivity analysis, and application of results. Of the 23 individual items, the mean number satisfactorily addressed was 7.63 +/- 2.84 (mean +/- S.D.) for 40 papers published from 1955 through 1982, 6.80 +/- 3.86 for 66 papers published from 1983 through 1986, and 11.91 +/- 4.79 for 58 papers published from 1987 through 1990 (F = 31.3, p < .001). We noted that methodology has definitely improved since our first survey of meta-analyses, but an urgent need still exists for a better search of the literature, quality evaluation of trials, and a synthesis of the results. Recently, meta-analysis has expanded to cover non-randomized studies, including evaluation of diagnostic tests and pooling of epidemiologic studies. There is growing concern for standards, and several methodologic issues remain unresolved.

Synergy, activity and tolerability of zidovudine and interferon-alpha in patients with symptomatic HIV-1 infection: AIDS Clincal Trial Group 068

Thirty-four subjects with symptomatic HIV-1 infection, p24 antigenaemia, and CD4 cell counts > 200/mm3 were randomly assigned to receive treatment with either zidovudine (ZDV) orally, interferon-alpha (IFN-alpha) subcutaneously, or both at respective low (200 mg ZDV/ 2 million international units IFN-alpha (MIU)), middle (400 mg/4 MIU) or high (600 mg/6 MIU) daily dose levels for 12 weeks. Thereafter, all patients received combination therapy at the initially assigned dose level to a total of 96 weeks. This design permitted analysis by the combination index (CI) method, which demonstrated antiretroviral synergy between ZDV and IFN-alpha with respect to p24 antigen suppression. Over the first 12 weeks, combination therapy was acceptably tolerated, more so than IFN-alpha monotherapy, and it was significantly more active in suppressing antigenaemia than either of the monotherapies. Similarly, the high-dose combination was the most active dose level over weeks 12 to 96. Combination ZDV/IFN-alpha at the optimal dose level defined by this trial merits further study. In addition, the CI design strategy employed here may be useful for the investigation of new antiretroviral combinations.

Predictive value of viral load measurements in asymptomatic untreated HIV-1 infection: a mathematical model

OBJECTIVE

To model the predictive value of viral load measurements in asymptomatic patients with HIV-1 infection, who have CD4 cell counts > 500 x 10(6)/l and no prior antiretroviral therapy, when the time of seroconversion and the prior levels of viremia are unknown.

DESIGN

A mathematical model was constructed for the changes in HIV RNA load over time based on data from cohorts of HIV-infected patients followed since the time of seroconversion.

METHODS

For different values of viral load, the time to progression to AIDS or an equivalent state [progression to AIDS equivalent (PAE)] was calculated using a wide range of estimates for the time since seroconversion and the rate of change of the viral load over time.

RESULTS

In the absence of antiretroviral treatment, patients with a viral load of 10(5) copies/ml serum are at risk for PAE in less than 3 years (0-3 years) and patients with a viral load half a log higher are at risk in less than 1 year. In contrast, patients with a viral load of 10(4.5) have at least 1.9 years and may have up to 8 years before risk of PAE. Patients with a viral load of 10(4) RNA copies/ml have at least 2.8 years and may have up to 19 years before risk of PAE. The rate of change of the viral load was an important predictor of outcome; the time since seroconversion had only a minor effect.

CONCLUSIONS

The viral load in the plasma or serum has predictive value even if the time of seroconversion is unknown. The rate of change of viral load over time may also be an important predictive factor. Serial measurements of viral load over time may provide therapeutic guidance.

A meta-analysis of the relative efficacy and toxicity of Pneumocystis carinii prophylactic regimens

BACKGROUND

Finding the optimal strategy for Pneumocystis carinii prophylaxis in patients with human immunodeficiency virus infection can be problematic. Several prophylactic regimens are available, but their relative efficacy and tolerance are not well understood.

METHODS

A meta-analysis overviewed 35 randomized trials comparing different regimens for P carinii prophylaxis directly or with placebo. Analyses were based on intention-to-treat. On-treatment data were also analyzed when available.

RESULTS

Regardless of dose, sulfamethoxazole-trimethoprim was almost universally effective for patients who tolerated it. The risk of discontinuing sulfamethoxazole-trimethoprim because of side effects decreased by 43% (95% confidence interval, 30% to 54%) if one double-strength tablet was given three times a week instead of daily. For dapsone, among 100 patients given 100 mg daily instead of twice a week for 1 year (primary prophylaxis), seven fewer patients would develop P carinii pneumonia, but 17 more would have significant toxic reactions. Aerosolized pentamidine was well tolerated regardless of the dose used. Prophylaxis failures might be halved if the dose of aerosolized pentamidine were doubled. Compared with aerosolized pentamidine, oral regimens prevented 73% (95% confidence interval, 57% to 82%) of toxoplasmosis events by on-treatment analysis, but only 33% (95% confidence interval, 12% to 50%) by intention-to-treat. No significant difference in mortality was demonstrated between different regimens.

CONCLUSIONS

Sulfamethoxazole-trimethoprim is the superior regimen, and low doses could improve tolerance without losing effectiveness for primary prophylaxis. Low doses of dapsone reduce toxic effects, but at the expense of some loss of efficacy. There are few data on the use of low-dose regimens for secondary prophylaxis. High doses of aerosolized pentamidine may improve the efficacy of this regimen. Aerosolized pentamidine is inadequate for prevention of toxoplasmosis, and strategies that improve the tolerance of oral regimens may increase effectiveness in preventing toxoplasmosis.

The efficacy of influenza vaccine in elderly persons. A meta-analysis and review of the literature

OBJECTIVE

To quantify the protective efficacy of influenza vaccine in elderly persons.

DATA SOURCES

A MEDLINE search was done using the index terms influenza vaccine, vaccine efficacy, elderly, mortality, hospitalized, and pneumonia. Appropriate references in the initially selected articles were also reviewed.

STUDY SELECTION

Only cohort observational studies with mortality assessment were included in the meta-analysis. In addition, 3 recent case-control studies, 2 cost-effectiveness studies, and 1 randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial were reviewed.

DATA EXTRACTION

Vaccine and epidemic virus strains, age and sex of patients, severity of illness, patient status, and study design were recorded. Upper respiratory illness, hospitalization, pneumonia, and mortality were used as outcome measures.

DATA SYNTHESIS

In a meta-analysis of 20 cohort studies, the pooled estimates of vaccine efficacy (1-odds ratio) were 56% (95% Cl, 39% to 68%) for preventing respiratory illness, 53% (Cl, 35% to 66%) for preventing pneumonia, 50% (Cl, 28% to 65%) for preventing hospitalization, and 68% (Cl, 56% to 76%) for preventing death. Vaccine efficacy in the case-control studies ranged from 32% to 45% for preventing hospitalization for pneumonia, from 31% to 65% for preventing hospital deaths from pneumonia and influenza, from 43% to 50% for preventing hospital deaths from all respiratory conditions, and from 27% to 30% for preventing deaths from all causes. The randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial showed a 50% or greater reduction in influenza-related illness. Recent cost-effectiveness studies confirm the efficacy of influenza vaccine in reducing influenza-related morbidity and mortality and show that vaccine provides important cost savings per year per vaccinated person.

CONCLUSION

Despite the paucity of randomized trials, many studies confirm that influenza vaccine reduces the risks for pneumonia, hospitalization, and death in elderly persons during an influenza epidemic if the vaccine strain is identical or similar to the epidemic strain. Influenza immunization is an indispensable part of the care of persons 65 years of age and older. Annual vaccine administration requires the attention of all physicians and public health organizations.

Octreotide enhances positive calcium balance in Duchenne muscular dystrophy

Although receptors for somatostatin are found in bone cells, the effect of somatostatin analogs on calcium metabolism is unknown. The authors studied, in a metabolic ward, the effect of octreotide (a long-acting somatostatin analog) and a placebo in two 6-day calcium balance periods in 8 children with Duchenne muscular dystrophy. As expected, octreotide (2 micrograms/kg, subcutaneously, every 8 hours) reduced serum growth hormone and somatomedin (IGF-1) to levels found in growth hormone deficiency. Octreotide enhanced calcium retention by 30% (96 mg daily [P < 0.04]) in 7 boys for whom complete data (diet, urine, and fecal calcium) were available. In 6 children with urinary calcium excretion (Uca) greater than 50 mg daily, octreotide markedly lowered Uca, from 114 +/- 23 mg daily to 61 +/- 9 mg daily (P < 0.03). Calcium retention occurred in patients with or without initial hypercalciuria, but the higher the basal Uca, the greater was the inhibition by octreotide (r = 0.79; P < 0.03). Inactive, nonambulatory patients had a more pronounced response of Uca to octreotide (P < 0.02). Octreotide caused a mild, nonsignificant reduction in fecal calcium, with no major changes in serum calcium, phosphorus, parathyroid hormone, urinary excretion of sodium and potassium, or in creatinine clearance. Based on the current observations and the presence of receptors for somatostatin in bone cells, this hormone may have, at least on a short-term basis, an anabolic effect on calcium, perhaps favoring its deposition in bone.

Early or deferred zidovudine therapy in HIV-infected patients without an AIDS-defining illness

PURPOSE

To do a meta-analysis on the efficacy of early or deferred zidovudine monotherapy in patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection but not the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS).

DATA SOURCES

Articles on zidovudine monotherapy published through May 1994.

STUDY SELECTION

Double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trials addressing the efficacy of zidovudine monotherapy in HIV-infected persons without an AIDS-defining illness.

DATA EXTRACTION

Progression to any primary trial end point; any clinical end point; and AIDS or death. Data were stratified according to disease stage at study entry and duration of follow-up (short-term, < 14 months; long-term, > 21 months).

DATA SYNTHESIS

Early initiation of zidovudine therapy was of short-term benefit for all the end points evaluated (for example, the risk ratio for progression to any primary end point was 0.51; 95% CI, 0.41 to 0.64). Long-term trials showed a marginally significant trend of decreased progression to any primary end point (risk ratio, 0.73; CI, 0.52 to 1.03). The trend was not significant for other end points. With further stratification according to disease stage, progression to AIDS or death in the short term was significantly decreased for both symptomatic and asymptomatic patients with CD4 cell counts of less than 500 x 10(6)/L (risk ratios, 0.26 [CI, 0.13 to 0.56] and 0.43 [CI, 0.30 to 0.64], respectively). A regression analysis indicated a larger relative benefit in short-term trials and symptomatic patients than in long-term trials and asymptomatic patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Early initiation of zidovudine therapy offers a benefit that decreases over time. Symptomatic patients experience a larger benefit than asymptomatic patients. The implications beyond 3 years of follow-up remain unknown.

Dose-related activity of stavudine in patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus

In a multicenter, randomized, open-label, dose-ranging study to determine the relative effects of three dose levels of stavudine on CD4 lymphocyte count, weight gain, and hematologic variables in patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), 152 patients with CD4 lymphocyte counts < or = 600/mm3 received stavudine at 0.1 mg/kg/day (n = 51), 0.5 mg/kg/day (n = 53), or 2.0 mg/kg/day (n = 48). The study was designed to evaluate the activity of stavudine after 10 weeks of therapy and permitted extended dosing and follow-up for long-term safety. A significant dose effect on increases in CD4 lymphocyte counts and declines in HIV titer in peripheral blood mononuclear cells was observed. Stavudine was well-tolerated; the only dose-related, dose-limiting adverse event was peripheral neuropathy, which usually was reversible. In this trial, the most favorable therapeutic index was seen at 0.5 mg/kg/day.

Stavudine in patients with AIDS and AIDS-related complex: AIDS clinical trials group 089

In a phase I trial of stavudine in AIDS or AIDS-related complex (ARC), antiviral effects and safety were assessed in 41 patients treated with dosages of 0.5-12.0 mg/kg/day. Among evaluable patients, 10% increases in CD4 lymphocyte counts were sustained in 24 (60%) of 40 during treatment; an NAUC response (normalized area under the CD4 cell count-versus-time curve > 1.0) was observed in 31 (91%) of 34 at 10 weeks and in 20 (80%) of 25 at 24 weeks; 15 (83%) of 18 had decreases in p24 antigenemia; and 24 (60%) of 40 gained > or = 2.5 kg body weight. Median CD4 lymphocyte levels remained above baseline for 6 months in patients receiving > 0.5 mg/kg/day. Median serum p24 antigen levels remained below baseline for > or = 1 year in patients with p24 antigen responses. The principal toxicity was peripheral neuropathy, which generally resolved after drug discontinuation but limited the dosage to < or = 2.0 mg/kg/day. Additional trials assessing the effect of stavudine on overall morbidity and mortality are ongoing.

Opioid and tachykinin neuropeptides in prolactin-secreting human pituitary adenomas

Two opioid neuropeptides, methionine enkephalin (ME) and beta-endorphin (BE), and one tachykinin neuropeptide, substance P (SP), were quantified in 10 prolactin (PRL)-secreting human pituitary adenomas and in 10 control human pituitaries. Immunohistochemical techniques provided appropriate staining for PRL. Reversed-phase high performance liquid chromatography (RP-HPLC) was used to purify these three neuropeptides before their analysis, radioimmunoassay (RIA) was used for the quantification of SP-like immunoreactivity (SP-LI), and liquid secondary-ion mass spectrometry (LSIMS) was used for the qualitative and quantitative analysis of ME and a tryptic peptide of BE. This study shows that, for 90% of the cases studied here (excluding one hypothyroidism case), the tachykinin A neuropeptide SP-LI level is decreased, the POMC peptide BE level is not altered, and the proenkephalin A neuropeptide ME level is increased in these PRL-secreting tumors.

Drug treatment of hypertension in the elderly: a meta-analysis

PURPOSE

A meta-analysis of the effect of antihypertensive drug treatment on mortality and morbidity in elderly patients.

DATA SOURCES

A literature search of published articles from January 1980 to February 1992.

STUDY SELECTION

Randomized controlled trials of drug treatment of hypertension with end points for elderly patients reported separately.

DATA EXTRACTION

Mortality or morbidity end points or both in patients older than 59 years were pooled by determination of typical odds ratio. A meta-regression was used to study heterogeneity.

RESULTS

Nine major trials with 15,559 patients older than 59 years were identified. Death rates in the control group varied between 2.7% and 77.2%; stroke and coronary mortality increased with the severity-of-illness rank (P < 0.001). Overall, treated patients had an approximately 12% reduction in all-cause mortality (odds ratio, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.80 to 0.97; 953 events compared with 1069 events, P = 0.009). There was a 36% reduction in stroke mortality (odds ratio, 0.64; CI, 0.49 to 0.82; 94 events compared with 149 events, P < 0.001) and a 25% reduction in coronary heart disease mortality (odds ratio, 0.75; CI, 0.64 to 0.88; 263 events compared with 350 events, P < 0.001). Coronary morbidity was reduced 15% (odds ratio, 0.85; CI, 0.73 to 0.99; 325 events compared with 379 events, P = 0.036), and stroke morbidity was reduced 35% (odds ratio, 0.65; CI, 0.55 to 0.76; 247 events compared with 382 events, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Overall, treatment of hypertension in elderly patients produces a significant benefit in total mortality and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. However, this benefit may be reduced in the oldest age groups.

Cesarean section to reduce perinatal transmission of human immunodeficiency virus. A metaanalysis

OBJECTIVE

Individual epidemiologic investigations into the association between type of delivery and perinatal HIV transmission have been suggestive but inconclusive. Metaanalysis was used in an attempt to establish if there is, at present, adequate evidence concerning the effectiveness of cesarean section in reducing vertical HIV transmission rates.

METHODS

The MEDLINE data retrieval system and other sources were used to identify studies containing data on the relationship between type of delivery and vertical HIV transmission. No randomized control trials were located. Six cohort studies identified were included in the metaanalysis. Crude and, in the only study in which these were available, adjusted data were extracted and pooled.

RESULTS

The overall weighted risk of perinatal HIV infection was 20.2% and 14.0% after vaginal and cesarean delivery, respectively. Pooling data of all studies showed a statistically significant difference of HIV perinatal transmission rates between cesarean and vaginal delivery (odds ratio 0.65; 95% CI, 0.43 to 0.99; P = 0.044) (Random effects model: DerSimonian and Laird method). Approximately 16 (95% CI, 76 to 9) HIV-infected women must deliver by cesarean in order to prevent 1 case of HIV perinatal infection.

CONCLUSIONS

Results of this study show that performing elective cesarean section in HIV-infected women is potentially an effective procedure. However, the nonexperimental nature of the available studies leads us to conclude that randomized control trials are indicated before setting specific guidelines for mode of delivery in HIV-infected women.

Meta-analysis of the effectiveness of current drug therapy of ulcerative colitis

We have conducted a meta-analysis of 16 placebo-controlled trials of single drug therapy in ulcerative colitis (UC) for both induction (11 trials) and maintenance of remission (five trials). A total of 468 and 343 patients, respectively, was studied. Various clinical criteria of success were analyzed. The Dersimonian-Laird method for meta-analysis was used to calculate the risk difference. Therapeutic advantage, defined as the difference between drug and placebo response, was also determined. Using various criteria of success, single drug therapy for the induction of remission conferred a therapeutic advantage of 37-48% over placebo. In trials for maintenance of remission, the therapeutic advantage at 6 months was 21%, whereas at 12 months the therapeutic advantage rose to 46% because of a decline in placebo responders with time. In conclusion, meta-analysis has established a standard of reference against which future drug trials can be compared. This standard of reference for drug and placebo rates, as well as the corresponding therapeutic advantages, can help determine the relative value of newer agents in the therapy of UC.

Influenza and pneumococcal vaccination of HIV-infected patients: a policy analysis

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the policy of vaccinating human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected young adults against influenza and pneumococcal infections.

METHODS

Transition state model of clinical immune deterioration of HIV infection, published data, and experts' estimates for the uncertain variables. Outcome measures are the number of influenza and pneumococcal infection hospitalizations and deaths prevented over 10 years and cost-effectiveness ratios.

PATIENTS

Hypothetical cohort of HIV-infected 30-year-old patients.

RESULTS

Although pneumococcal vaccine effectiveness diminishes with advanced HIV disease, the risks of pneumococcal infection rise substantially. Pneumococcal vaccination was therefore found to be a reasonable prevention strategy at all HIV disease stages: few vaccinations are needed to prevent hospitalizations and deaths, and the vaccination strategy is cost-effective. By contrast, influenza incidence is low among young adults, and HIV-related immunodeficiency increases influenza risks only minimally. Because the vaccine is administered yearly, many more vaccinations must be administered and fewer hospitalizations and deaths are prevented than with pneumococcal vaccination. The costs to extend life expectancy are high, and beyond the costs of other prevention strategies for persons with moderate to severe immunodeficiency.

CONCLUSIONS

Pneumococcal vaccination is a reasonable prevention strategy for HIV-infected patients at all stages of immunodeficiency. Fewer hospitalizations and deaths are prevented by influenza vaccination, making it a far less cost-effective prevention strategy than pneumococcal vaccination.

Intramuscular pentamidine for the prevention of Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia in patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus

We retrospectively reviewed the charts of 96 patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) who received intramuscular pentamidine for the prevention of Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP). These patients, all of whom had either a history of PCP or a CD4 lymphocyte count of < or = 0.2 x 10(9)/L, were intolerant of sulfa drugs, neutropenic, or intolerant of aerosolized treatment. Intramuscular pentamidine was given monthly by the Z-track technique at a dosage of 300 mg (4 mg/kg if the patient weighed < 50 kg). During a total of 350 months of primary prophylaxis in 47 patients and 426 months of secondary prophylaxis in 49 patients, only three cases of PCP occurred. More than 73% of the patients were receiving zidovudine concomitantly. Adverse reactions to intramuscular pentamidine included two episodes of hypotension, three of sterile abscess, two of glucose intolerance, and one of asymptomatic hypoglycemia. The administration of intramuscular pentamidine by the Z-track technique for PCP prophylaxis appears to be highly effective and minimally toxic.

Mass spectrometric analysis of opioid and tachykinin neuropeptides in non-secreting and ACTH-secreting human pituitary adenomas

In a study to test the hypothesis that defects in the metabolism of neuropeptides might be a contributing factor to human anterior pituitary tumor formation, the proenkephalin A, proopiomelanocortin (POMC), and tachykinin systems, which produce methionine enkephalin (ME), beta-endorphin (BE), and substance P (SP), respectively, were measured in patients who had a wide variety of pituitary tumors. Mass spectrometry was used to optimize the level of molecular specificity of the ME and BE analytical measurements, and radioimmunoassay was used to measure SP-like immunoreactivity (SP-li). Compared to data obtained from pituitaries from post-mortem controls, the non-secreting tumors contained a significantly lower amount of the POMC neuropeptide, BE. The lower ME level was not significant. However, two adrenocorticotrophic hormone (ACTH)-secreting tumors contained ME, BE, and SP-li amounts that were much higher than both the controls and nonsecreting tumors. These data suggest that a hypometabolism of the POMC precursor may be operating in non-secreting tumors, and that a hypermetabolism of the proenkephalin A, POMC, and tachykinin precursors may be operating in two ACTH-secreting tumors. These data demonstrate that mass spectrometry plays a critical role in the study of human pituitary tumors.

Preventive medicine for HIV-infected patients: an analysis of isoniazid prophylaxis for tuberculin reactors and for anergic patients

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the policies of isoniazid prophylaxis for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected tuberculin reactors and for HIV-infected anergic patients with unknown tuberculin status.

METHODS

Transition-state model of clinical immune deterioration of HIV-infection over ten years, review of published data, and a survey of AIDS experts. Outcome measures are the numbers of tuberculosis cases and deaths prevented and isoniazid toxicity cases and deaths occurring with prophylaxis.

PATIENTS

Hypothetical cohorts of HIV-infected 40-year-olds.

RESULTS

Because the tuberculosis activation rate is so high in HIV-infected patients, the benefits of prophylaxis far outweigh the risks of isoniazid toxicity for tuberculin reactors with HIV infection at any stage of immune function: 1,469-2,868 tuberculosis cases and 170-274 deaths are prevented per 10,000 cohort over ten years, depending upon the cohort's initial immune state. The benefits of prophylaxis outweigh the risks of isoniazid toxicity for anergic HIV-infected patients if they come from a community with a 2% to 3% or greater prevalence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection.

CONCLUSIONS

Isoniazid prophylaxis is a reasonable prevention measure for HIV-infected tuberculin reactors and for many HIV-infected anergic patients.

Using patient reports to assess hospital treatment of persons with AIDS: a pilot study

Providing efficacious, compassionate, and efficient medical care to persons with HIV infection is one of the greatest challenges that will face US hospitals this decade. Unfortunately, there have been almost no studies of how organizational arrangements are related to the quality of care. We developed an interview protocol and conducted a pilot study to evaluate the instrument's ability to detect differences in selected interpersonal aspects of care provided to persons with AIDS. We evaluated the care received in two different treatment models in a major teaching hospital: a designated AIDS unit and general medical beds. We assessed several areas of patient care that are clinically important and that patients can evaluate: communication between patients and providers, patient education, respect for patient preferences, emotional support, involvement of family and friends, trust and confidence, physical care, pain management, AIDS knowledge, perceived segregation, confidentiality, and financial information. Patients generally were very satisfied with their hospital care, but many reported problems with certain aspects of their care. The instrument used detected differences between the care reported by patients treated in general hospital beds and in a designated AIDS unit in several specific aspects of care.

Renal aspergilloma: an unusual cause of infection in a patient with the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome

The case of a 36-year-old man with the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) and a renal aspergilloma is reported. Aspergillus infections are uncommon in patients with AIDS. Isolated renal aspergillomas have rarely been reported in the non-AIDS population (14 cases) and have never been reported in a patient with AIDS. The patient we describe was clinically symptomatic and initially treated medically, but he did not respond to intravenous amphotericin and oral itraconazole. He eventually required nephrectomy; however, there was local recurrence of the aspergilloma postoperatively. We comment on some issues in the spectrum of Aspergillus infections in AIDS and review the literature on the manifestations and treatment of renal aspergillomas.

The inpatient AIDS unit: a preliminary empirical investigation of access, economic, and outcome issues

An AIDS unit model ("cluster beds") and a general inpatient placement model ("scatter beds") in a major teaching hospital were compared to determine whether they differed on several dimensions of care. After controlling for severity of illness, (the major predictor of admission to the AIDS unit), length of stay, charges, and inpatient mortality rates did not differ between the two settings. Equal proportions of White, Hispanic, male, and privately insured patients were found in both settings. Nursing staff turnover rates were comparable to those of other sites. However, the data raise new issues regarding access to AIDS units for older, Black, and female patients.

Human immunodeficiency virus and hepatitis B virus infections in a New York City alcoholic population

Alcoholics have previously been reported to have an increased susceptibility to hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. Since human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is transmitted in a similar fashion, we studied 143 consecutive in- and outpatient alcoholics residing in New York City for HIV and HBV prevalence and associated risk factors. Of these alcoholics, 19 (13%) individuals were HIV positive, 57 (40%) were hepatitis B seropositive. Intravenous drug use and sexual contact with an IV drug user were the most important risk behaviors for HIV acquisition, with large numbers of partners and anal heterosexual intercourse being lesser factors. The only significant risk behavior determined for hepatitis B infection was IV drug use. These high-risk behaviors did not appear to be related to episodes of alcoholic intoxication. However, it is conceivable that alcoholism may, in other ways, affect susceptibility to HIV infection.

Infection with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) among recipients of antibody-positive blood donations

OBJECTIVE

To assess the incidence of human immunodeficiency virus type 1(HIV-1) transmission by antibody (anti-HIV-1)-positive blood components, and to determine the immunologic and clinical course in HIV-1-infected recipients.

DESIGN AND SUBJECTS

We retrospectively tested approximately 200,000 donor blood component specimens stored in late 1984 and 1985 for anti-HIV-1, and we contacted recipients of positive specimens to determine their serologic status. They were compared with both recipients of HIV-1-negative transfusions and healthy (untransfused) controls. Subjects were seen at 3- to 6-month intervals for up to 4 years for clinical and immunologic evaluations.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Of 133 recipients, 9 had other possible exposures. Excluding these cases, 111 of 124 (89.5%) were anti-HIV-1-positive (95% CI, 84.1% to 94.5%). The recipient's sex, age, underlying condition, and type of component did not influence infection rates. The cumulative risk for developing the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) within 38 months after transfusion was 13% (CI, 7.5% to 21.6%). At 36 +/- 3 months after the index transfusion, seropositive recipients had lower counts of CD2+CDw26+, CD4+, CD4+CD29+, and CD4+CD45RA+subsets and more CD8+I2+ lymphocytes than did recipients of anti-HIV-1-negative transfusions. The CD4+ and CD2+CDw26+subsets changed the most rapidly. The absolute CD8+ count remained normal.

CONCLUSIONS

Transfusion of anti-HIV-1-positive blood infected 90% of recipients. The rate of progression to AIDS within the first 38 months after infection was similar to that reported for homosexual men and hemophiliacs. Although most lymphocyte subset counts changed over time, CD8+ counts were constant.

Endoscopic hemostasis. An effective therapy for bleeding peptic ulcers

We performed a meta-analysis of 25 randomized control trials that compared endoscopic hemostasis with standard therapy for bleeding peptic ulcer. For recurrent or continued bleeding, the mean rate in control patients was 0.39, and the pooled rate difference, or reduction due to therapy, was 0.27 +/- 0.15 (95% confidence interval) (69% relative reduction). For emergency surgery, the mean rate in control patients was 0.26, and the pooled rate difference was 0.16 +/- 0.05 (62% relative reduction). Most important, for overall mortality, the mean rate in control patients was 0.10, and the pooled rate difference was 0.03 +/- 0.02 (30% relative reduction). The effects were greatest in patients with spurting or visible blood vessels and equivocal when the ulcer showed only signs of recent bleeding. We conclude that endoscopic hemostasis is clearly effective but that data were insufficient for direct comparisons between modalities. Randomized control trials to compare the different modes of endoscopic therapy should continue.

Endoscopic hemostasis. An effective therapy for bleeding peptic ulcers

We performed a meta-analysis of 25 randomized control trials that compared endoscopic hemostasis with standard therapy for bleeding peptic ulcer. For recurrent or continued bleeding, the mean rate in control patients was 0.39, and the pooled rate difference, or reduction due to therapy, was 0.27 +/- 0.15 (95% confidence interval) (69% relative reduction). For emergency surgery, the mean rate in control patients was 0.26, and the pooled rate difference was 0.16 +/- 0.05 (62% relative reduction). Most important, for overall mortality, the mean rate in control patients was 0.10, and the pooled rate difference was 0.03 +/- 0.02 (30% relative reduction). The effects were greatest in patients with spurting or visible blood vessels and equivocal when the ulcer showed only signs of recent bleeding. We conclude that endoscopic hemostasis is clearly effective but that data were insufficient for direct comparisons between modalities. Randomized control trials to compare the different modes of endoscopic therapy should continue.

Zidovudine prophylaxis for needlestick exposure to human immunodeficiency virus: a decision analysis

OBJECTIVE

To perform a decision analysis to determine the thresholds of safety and effectiveness that would justify short-term zidovudine (AZT) administration for persons with accidental percutaneous exposure to HIV-positive blood.

DESIGN

Published data were used to estimate the seroconversion rate (0.42%), rate of developing AIDS if HIV-infected (5%/year), and survival with AIDS (50%/year). No information is available on zidovudine effectiveness and little is known about fatal toxicity of zidovudine. Death from AIDS or from zidovudine toxicity was used as the endpoint.

RESULTS

For those with exposure to blood known to be HIV-seropositive, the benefits of zidovudine outweight the risks if efficacy is above approximately 3% to 8%. Wide variations in the assumptions have little effect on the thresholds.

CONCLUSIONS

Since clinical trials to determine zidovudine effectiveness in this setting will probably never be done, decision analysis offers the only quantitative method for addressing this question. Unless future studies show zidovudine to be both ineffective and toxic, the benefits of short-term administration of zidovudine outweigh the risks immediately after exposure to HIV-positive blood. Zidovudine benefits do not clearly outweigh the risks after exposure to blood of unknown serologic status, or if there is a delay in starting therapy.

Dipyridamole in the treatment of angina pectoris: a meta-analysis

A meta-analysis of 11 randomized trials published between 1960 and 1970 was performed to re-evaluate data on the efficacy of dipyridamole in the prevention and treatment of chronic angina pectoris. Three trials significantly favored drug vs placebo, four showed a trend towards drug vs placebo, two showed no difference and two showed a trend towards placebo vs drug. The combined results of these 11 trials showed a statistically significant improvement with dipyridamole. Although this result should be viewed with caution because of methodologic variations in the studies, the available evidence appears to suggest that dipyridamole may have a beneficial effect, and that it may have been prematurely discarded in the treatment of angina pectoris.

Selection and evaluation of empirical research in technology assessment

Technology assessment involves application of the scientific method to the practice of medicine. Finding all of the assessment reports in a given field is not an easy task. Proper evaluation of those assessments requires the conduct of a prospective experiment in which the sources and results are blinded when the choice is made of papers to exclude and to include, and the process should be carried out in duplicate. There are several available data bases for carrying out the search, but because of indexing problems they should be supplemented by reference to the bibliographies of pertinent published articles. Clinical trials included in meta-analyses should be graded by quality and thus facilitate sensitivity analyses. Attention must be paid to the possibility of publication bias. Finally, the advent of meta-analysis makes it desirable to begin randomized controlled trials in areas of uncertainty, even when there is no possibility that individual investigators will encounter enough patients to draw valid conclusions.

A meta-analysis of randomized control trials of progestational agents in pregnancy

The continued use of progestational agents in attempts to achieve a normal outcome of pregnancy in women with a 'high-risk' pregnancy (previous miscarriage, stillbirth or present preterm labour) prompted this meta-analysis of randomized control trials of such therapy. Of 20 trials of a progestogen 15 had combinable data. Combined comparisons, using odds ratios with confidence intervals, were made of the rates of livebirths at term or preterm and the sum of term and preterm deliveries, miscarriages, stillbirths and neonatal deaths. All but one comparison failed to show a significant benefit. Only the preterm delivery versus the term delivery comparison approached statistical significance. There were average deficiencies of quality apparent in the studies, and a test for heterogeneity among the studies was positive, but these caveats do not diminish the conclusion that progestogens should not be used outside of randomized trials at present. If trials are done, they should include only women with demonstrated hormonal abnormalities who are carrying a live fetus as shown by ultrasonography.

A comparison of statistical methods for combining event rates from clinical trials

We compare two statistical methods for combining event rates from several studies. Both methods treat each study as a separate stratum. The Peto-modified Mantel-Haenszel (Peto) method estimates a combined odds ratio assuming homogeneity across strata and provides a test for heterogeneity. The DerSimonian and Laird modified Cochran method (D&L) produces a weighted average of rate differences, where the weights allow for among-study variability. We analyse 22 meta-analyses from ten reports by both methods. The pooled estimates are divided by their standard errors to produce a Z-statistic. A t-test comparing Z-statistics from all 22 studies suggests that the D&L method tends to be more conservative [d(Peto - D&L) = 0.29, t = 2.53, p = 0.02]. For a subset of 14 non-heterogeneous studies, the difference is smaller and non-significant (d = 0.09, t = 0.72, p = 0.49). The results from the methods correlate well (r = 0.66 for all 22 studies, r = 0.95 for 14 non-heterogeneous studies). Thus, the presence of heterogeneity influences our conclusion. We discuss the statistical and scientific implications of these findings.

Umbilical cord blood serosurvey for human immunodeficiency virus in parturient women in a voluntary hospital in New York City

The potential spread of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) to childbearing women in areas of high acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) endemicity is a major public health concern. As a private institution providing obstetric care to such a population of women, we undertook an anonymous HIV cord blood serosurvey to estimate the number of childbearing women at our institution at risk for perinatal transmission of the virus and to assess the success of our voluntary screening program to identify seropositive women. Between November 1987 and January 1988, cord blood samples from all clinic deliveries were analyzed for the presence of HIV antibody. For each sample obtained, the mother's age and site of prenatal care were known. Overall, 2.7% (six of 224) of the samples tested were seropositive; two of the 34 samples (5.9%) from teenage mothers were seropositive. All positive samples were from women who received prenatal care; none were identified through a voluntary screening program based on patient self-acknowledged risk-behavior assessment. This confirms that risk factor history elicited by personal interview is not a reliable screening tool for initiating HIV antibody counseling and testing. The high seropositive rate in teenagers is disturbing and needs further assessment.

The poor quality of early evaluations of magnetic resonance imaging

To study the quality of early research on the clinical efficacy of diagnostic imaging with magnetic resonance, we assessed 54 evaluations published in the first four years after introduction of this modality using ten commonly accepted criteria of research methodology. The terms sensitivity, specificity, false-positive or false-negative, accuracy, and predictive values were used infrequently. Nineteen percent of the evaluations used three terms appropriately, 48% used one or two terms, and 33% used none. Data were presented appropriately for one or more of the five terms in 59% of evaluations. A "gold standard" comparison with the results of an independent procedure, such as surgical or autopsy findings, was presented in 22% of evaluations. Results of another imaging procedure were described in 63% of evaluations. Only one evaluation clearly described a prospective study design, although 11 evaluations apparently were planned in advance. Not one evaluation contained an appropriate statistical analysis of the distributions of quantitative readings, "blinded" image readers to diagnosis or other test results, measured observer error, or randomized the order of magnetic resonance imaging and other imaging procedures. We conclude that health care professionals paying for expensive innovative diagnostic technology should demand better research on diagnostic efficacy.

Dipyridamole in the treatment of angina pectoris: a meta-analysis

A meta-analysis was performed to reevaluate the efficacy of dipyridamole for prophylaxis of angina pectoris. We found 10 articles that reported 11 randomized control trials published between 1960 and 1970. Three trials found a statistically significant benefit for the drug vs placebo, four showed a positive trend, two found no difference, and two showed a slight trend favoring placebo. When the results of all 11 trials were combined, two different statistical methods showed a statistically significant benefit from the drug. These combined results must be interpreted cautiously because of excluded patients and other methodologic variations in the studies, as well as evidence from other studies that dipyridamole may aggravate angina. Nevertheless, we conclude that there is some evidence for efficacy of the drug and believe the question should be restudied in larger and better-designed trials.

Antiplatelet agents in the secondary prevention of stroke: meta-analysis of the randomized control trials

Randomized control trials of antiplatelet agents in the prevention of stroke following transient ischemic attacks have had conflicting results. The decision to employ aspirin instead of placebo as the control regimen in trials testing newer antiplatelet agents emphasizes the need for an accurate estimate of the efficacy of older drugs. A meta-analysis of seven randomized control trials comparing aspirin and/or sulfinpyrazone or dipyridamole with placebo was performed. For aspirin compared with placebo, a nonsignificant reduction in stroke of 15% (odds ratio 0.85, 95% confidence interval 0.60-1.19; chi 2 = 0.78, p greater than 0.30) was found. For aspirin combined with sulfinpyrazone or dipyridamole compared with placebo, a 39% reduction in stroke was observed (odds ratio 0.61, 95% confidence interval 0.39-0.95; chi 2 = 4.22, p less than 0.05); at the same time a 350% increase in gastrointestinal hemorrhage or peptic ulcer was noted (odds ratio 3.5, 95% confidence interval 1.26-9.75; chi 2 = 4.61, p less than 0.05). A trend in reduction of strokes for men was observed (odds ratio 0.58, 95% confidence interval 0.32-1.07; chi 2 = 2.52, p less than 0.15) for any regimen containing aspirin. The significant benefit of aspirin-combination therapy on stroke must be interpreted cautiously because of a number of possible biases. It is still conceivable that aspirin alone may decrease the incidence of stroke by as much as 40%, but a sample of greater than 13,000 patients would be needed to confirm the benefit observed in our analysis.