Delays in accessing high-quality care for newborns in East Africa: An analysis of survey data in Malawi, Mozambique, and Tanzania

Background

Despite the existence of evidence-based interventions, substantial progress in reducing neonatal mortality is lagging, indicating that small and sick newborns (SSNs) are likely not receiving the care they require to survive and thrive. The 'three delays model' provides a framework for understanding the challenges in accessing care for SSNs. However, the extent to which each delay impacts access to care for SSNs is not well understood. To fill this evidence gap, we explored the impact of each of the three delays on access to care for SSNs in Malawi, Mozambique, and Tanzania.

Methods

Secondary analyses of data from three different surveys served as the foundation of this study. To understand the impact of delays in the decision to seek care (delay 1) and the ability to reach an appropriate point of care (delay 2), we investigated time trends in place of birth disaggregated by facility type. We also explored care-seeking behaviours for newborns who died. To understand the impact of delays in accessing high-quality care after reaching a facility (delay 3), we measured facility readiness to manage care for SSNs. We used this measure to adjust institutional delivery coverage for SSN care readiness.

Results

Coverage of institutional deliveries was substantially lower after adjusting for facility readiness to manage SSN care, with decreases of 30 percentage points (pp) in Malawi, 14 pp in Mozambique, and 24 pp in Tanzania. While trends suggest more SSNs are born in facilities, substantial gaps remain in facilities' capacities to provide lifesaving interventions. In addition, exploration of care-seeking pathways revealed that a substantial proportion of newborn deaths occurred outside of health facilities, indicating barriers in the decision to seek care or the ability to reach an appropriate source of care may also prevent SSNs from receiving these interventions.

Conclusions

Investments are needed to overcome delays in accessing high-quality care for the most vulnerable newborns, those who are born small or sick. As more mothers and newborns access health services in low- and middle-income countries, ensuring that life-saving interventions for SSNs are available at the locations where newborns are born and seek care after birth is critical.

Maternal interventions to decrease stillbirths and neonatal mortality in Tanzania: evidence from the 2017-18 cross-sectional Tanzania verbal and social autopsy study

BACKGROUND

Reduction of Tanzania's neonatal mortality rate has lagged behind that for all under-fives, and perinatal mortality has remained stagnant over the past two decades. We conducted a national verbal and social autopsy (VASA) study to estimate the causes and social determinants of stillbirths and neonatal deaths with the aim of identifying relevant health care and social interventions.

METHODS

A VASA interview was conducted of all stillbirths and neonatal deaths in the prior 5 years identified by the 2015-16 Tanzania Demographic and Health Survey. We evaluated associations of maternal complications with antepartum and intrapartum stillbirth and leading causes of neonatal death; conducted descriptive analyses of antenatal (ANC) and delivery care and mothers' careseeking for complications; and developed logistic regression models to examine factors associated with delivery place and mode.

RESULTS

There were 204 stillbirths, with 185 able to be classified as antepartum (88 [47.5%]) or intrapartum (97 [52.5%]), and 228 neonatal deaths. Women with an intrapartum stillbirth were 6.5% (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.065, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.002, 1.132) more likely to have a C-section for every additional hour before delivery after reaching the birth attendant. Antepartum hemorrhage (APH), maternal anemia, and premature rupture of membranes (PROM) were significantly positively associated with early neonatal mortality due to preterm delivery, intrapartum-related events and serious infection, respectively. While half to two-thirds of mothers made four or more ANC visits (ANC4+), a third or fewer received quality ANC (Q-ANC). Women with a complication were more likely to deliver at hospital only if they received Q-ANC (neonates: aOR = 4.5, 95% CI 1.6, 12.3) or ANC4+ (stillbirths: aOR = 11.8, 95% CI 3.6, 38.0). Nevertheless, urban residence was the strongest predictor of hospital delivery.

CONCLUSIONS

While Q-ANC and ANC4 + boosted hospital delivery among women with a complication, attendance was low and the quality of care is critical. Quality improvement efforts in urban and rural areas should focus on early detection and management of APH, maternal anemia, PROM, and prolonged labor, and on newborn resuscitation.

Modified Pathway to Survival highlights importance of rapid access to quality institutional delivery care to decrease neonatal mortality in Serang and Jember districts, Java, Indonesia

Background

Three-quarters of births in Indonesia occur in a health facility, yet the neonatal mortality rate remains high at 15 per 1000 live births. The Pathway to Survival (P-to-S) framework of steps needed to return sick neonates and young children to health focuses on caregiver recognition of and care-seeking for severe illness. In view of increased institutional delivery in Indonesia and other low- and middle-income countries, a modified P-to-S is needed to assess the role of maternal complications in neonatal survival.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cross-sectional verbal and social autopsy study of all neonatal deaths from June through December 2018, identified by a proven listing method in two districts of Java, Indonesia. We examined care-seeking for maternal complications, delivery place, and place and timing of neonatal illness onset and death.

Results

The fatal illnesses of 189/259 (73%) neonates began in their delivery facility (DF), 114/189 (60%) of whom died before discharge. Mothers whose neonate's illness started at their delivery hospital and lower-level DF were more than six times (odds ratio (OR) = 6.5; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 3.4-12.5) and twice (OR = 2.0; 95% CI = 1.01-4.02) as likely to experience a maternal complication as those whose neonates fell fatally ill in the community, and illness started earlier (mean = 0.3 vs 3.6 days; P < 0.001) and death came sooner (3.5 vs 5.3 days; P = 0.06) to neonates whose illness started at any DF. Despite going to the same number of providers/facilities, women with a labour and delivery (L/D) complication who sought care from at least one other provider or facility on route to their DF took longer than those without a complication to reach their DF (median = 3.3 vs 1.3 hours; P = 0.01).

Conclusions

Neonates' fatal illness onset in their DF was strongly associated with maternal complications. Mothers with a L/D complication experienced delays in reaching their DF, and nearly half the neonatal deaths occurred in association with a complication, suggesting that mothers with complications first seeking care at a hospital providing emergency maternal and neonatal care might have prevented some deaths. A modified P-to-S highlights the importance of rapid access to quality institutional delivery care in settings where many births occur in facilities and/or there is good care-seeking for L/D complications.

Countrywide Mortality Surveillance for Action in Mozambique: Results from a National Sample-Based Vital Statistics System for Mortality and Cause of Death

Sub-Saharan Africa lacks timely, reliable, and accurate national data on mortality and causes of death (CODs). In 2018 Mozambique launched a sample registration system (Countrywide Mortality Surveillance for Action [COMSA]-Mozambique), which collects continuous birth, death, and COD data from 700 randomly selected clusters, a nationally representative population of 828,663 persons. Verbal and social autopsy interviews are conducted for COD determination. We analyzed data collected in 2019-2020 to report mortality rates and cause-specific fractions. Cause-specific results were generated using computer-coded verbal autopsy (CCVA) algorithms for deaths among those age 5 years and older. For under-five deaths, the accuracy of CCVA results was increased through calibration with data from minimally invasive tissue sampling. Neonatal and under-five mortality rates were, respectively, 23 (95% CI: 18-28) and 80 (95% CI: 69-91) deaths per 1,000 live births. Mortality rates per 1,000 were 18 (95% CI: 14-21) among age 5-14 years, 26 (95% CI: 20-31) among age 15-24 years, 258 (95% CI: 230-287) among age 25-59 years, and 531 (95% CI: 490-572) among age 60+ years. Urban areas had lower mortality rates than rural areas among children under 15 but not among adults. Deaths due to infections were substantial across all ages. Other predominant causes by age group were prematurity and intrapartum-related events among neonates; diarrhea, malaria, and lower respiratory infections among children 1-59 months; injury, malaria, and diarrhea among children 5-14 years; HIV, injury, and cancer among those age 15-59 years; and cancer and cardiovascular disease at age 60+ years. The COMSA-Mozambique platform offers a rich and unique system for mortality and COD determination and monitoring and an opportunity to build a comprehensive surveillance system.

Care-seeking and health insurance among pregnancy-related deaths: A population-based study in Jember District, East Java Province, Indonesia

Background

Despite the increased access to facility-based delivery in Indonesia, the country’s maternal mortality remains unacceptably high. Reducing maternal mortality requires a good understanding of the care-seeking pathways for maternal complications, especially with the government moving toward universal health coverage. This study examined care-seeking practices and health insurance in instances of pregnancy-related deaths in Jember District, East Java, Indonesia.

Methods

This was a community-based cross-sectional study to identify all pregnancy-related deaths in the district from January 2017 to December 2018. Follow-up verbal and social autopsy interviews were conducted to collect information on care-seeking behavior, health insurance, causes of death, and other factors.

Findings

Among 103 pregnancy-related deaths, 40% occurred after 24 hours postpartum, 36% during delivery or within the first 24 hours postpartum, and 24% occurred while pregnant. The leading causes of deaths were hemorrhage (38.8%), pregnancy-induced hypertension (20.4%), and sepsis (16.5%). Most deaths occurred in health facilities (81.6%), primarily hospitals (74.8%). Nearly all the deceased sought care from a formal health provider during their fatal illness (93.2%). Seeking any care from an informal provider during the fatal illness was more likely among women who died after 24 hours postpartum (41.0%, OR 7.4, 95% CI 1.9, 28.5, p = 0.049) or during pregnancy (29.2%, OR 4.4, 95% CI 1.0, 19.2, p = 0.003) than among those who died during delivery or within 24 hours postpartum (8.6%). There was no difference in care-seeking patterns between insured and uninsured groups.

Conclusions

The fact that women sought care and reached health facilities regardless of their insurance status provides opportunities to prevent deaths by ensuring that every woman receives timely and quality care. Accordingly, the increasing demand should be met with balanced readiness of both primary care and hospitals to provide quality care, supported by an effective referral system.

Verbal/social autopsy analysis of causes and determinants of under-5 mortality in Tanzania from 2010 to 2016

Background

Tanzania has decreased its child mortality rate by more than 70 percent in the last three decades and is striving to develop a nationally-representative sample registration system with verbal autopsy to help focus health policies and programs toward further reduction. As an interim measure, a verbal and social autopsy study was conducted to provide vital information on the causes and social determinants of neonatal and child deaths.

Methods

Causes of neonatal and 1-59 month-old deaths identified by the 2015-16 Tanzania Demographic and Health Survey were assessed using the expert algorithm verbal autopsy method. The social autopsy examined prevalence of key household, community and health system indicators of preventive and curative care provided along the continuum of care and Pathway to Survival models. Careseeking for neonates and 1-59 month-olds was compared, and tests of associations of age and cause of death to careseeking indicators and place of death were conducted.

Results

The most common causes of death of 228 neonates and 351 1-59 month-olds, respectively, were severe infection, intrapartum related events and preterm delivery, and pneumonia, diarrhea and malaria. Coverage of early initiation of breastfeeding (24%), hygienic cord care (29%), and full immunization of 12-59 month-olds (33%) was problematic. Most (88.8%) neonates died in the first week, including 44.3% in their birth facility before leaving. Formal care was sought for just 41.9% of newborns whose illness started at home and was delayed by 5.3 days for 1-59 month-olds who sought informal care. Care was less likely to be sought for the youngest neonates and infants and severely ill children. Although 70.3% of 233 under-5 year-olds were moderately or severely ill on discharge from their first provider, only 29.0%-31.2% were referred.

Conclusions

The study highlights needed actions to complete Tanzania’s child survival agenda. Low levels of some preventive interventions need to be addressed. The high rate of facility births and neonatal deaths requires strengthening of institutionally-based interventions targeting maternal labor and delivery complications and neonatal causes of death. Scale-up of Integrated Community Case Management should be considered to strengthen careseeking for the youngest newborns, infants and severely ill children and referral practices at first level facilities.

Using propensity scores to estimate the effectiveness of maternal and newborn interventions to reduce neonatal mortality in Nigeria

Background

Nigeria is the largest country in sub-Saharan Africa, with one of the highest neonatal mortality rates and the second highest number of neonatal deaths in the world. There is broad international consensus on which interventions can most effectively reduce neonatal mortality, however, there is little direct evidence on what interventions are effective in the Nigerian setting.

Methods

We used the 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) and the follow-up 2014 Verbal and Social Autopsy study of neonatal deaths to estimate the association between neonatal survival and mothers’ and neonates’ receipt of 18 resources and interventions along the continuum of care with information available in the NDHS. We formed propensity scores to predict the probability of receiving the intervention or resource and then weighted the observations by the inverse of the propensity score to estimate the association with mortality. We examined all-cause mortality as well as mortality due to infectious causes and intrapartum related events.

Results

Among 19,685 livebirths and 538 neonatal deaths, we achieved adequate balance for population characteristics and maternal and neonatal health care received for 10 of 18 resources and interventions, although inference for most antenatal interventions was not possible. Of ten resources and interventions that met our criteria for balance of potential confounders, only early breastfeeding was related to decreased all-cause neonatal mortality (relative risk 0.42, 95% CI 0.32–0.52, p <  0.001). Maternal decision making and postnatal health care reduced mortality due to infectious causes, with relative risks of 0.29 (95% CI 0.09–0.88; 0.030) and 0.46 (0.22–0.95; 0.037), respectively. Early breastfeeding and delayed bathing were related to decreased mortality due to intrapartum events, although these are not likely to be causal associations.

Conclusion

Access to immediate postnatal care and women’s autonomous decision-making have been among the most effective interventions for reducing neonatal mortality in Nigeria. As neonatal mortality increases relative to overall child mortality, accessible interventions are necessary to make further progress for neonatal survival in Nigeria and other low resource settings.

Using health facility deaths to estimate population causes of neonatal and child mortality in four African countries

BACKGROUND

Verbal autopsy is the main method used in countries with weak civil registration systems for estimating community causes of neonatal and 1-59-month-old deaths. However, validation studies of verbal autopsy methods are limited and assessment has been dependent on hospital-based studies, with uncertain implications for its validity in community settings. If the distribution of community deaths by cause was similar to that of facility deaths, or could be adjusted according to related demographic factors, then the causes of facility deaths could be used to estimate population causes.

METHODS

Causes of neonatal and 1-59-month-old deaths from verbal/social autopsy (VASA) surveys in four African countries were estimated using expert algorithms (EAVA) and physician coding (PCVA). Differences between facility and community deaths in individual causes and cause distributions were examined using chi-square and cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMF) accuracy, respectively. Multinomial logistic regression and random forest models including factors from the VASA studies that are commonly available in Demographic and Health Surveys were built to predict population causes from facility deaths.

RESULTS

Levels of facility and community deaths in the four countries differed for one to four of 10 EAVA or PCVA neonatal causes and zero to three of 12 child causes. CSMF accuracy for facility compared to community deaths in the four countries ranged from 0.74 to 0.87 for neonates and 0.85 to 0.95 for 1-59-month-olds. Crude CSMF accuracy in the prediction models averaged 0.86 to 0.88 for neonates and 0.93 for 1-59-month-olds. Adjusted random forest prediction models increased average CSMF accuracy for neonates to, at most, 0.90, based on small increases in all countries.

CONCLUSIONS

There were few differences in facility and community causes of neonatal and 1-59-month-old deaths in the four countries, and it was possible to project the population CSMF from facility deaths with accuracy greater than the validity of verbal autopsy diagnoses. Confirmation of these findings in additional settings would warrant research into how medical causes of deaths in a representative sample of health facilities can be utilized to estimate the population causes of child death.

How fast did newborns die in Nigeria from 2009-2013: a time-to-death analysis using Verbal /Social Autopsy data

Background

The slow decline in neonatal mortality as compared to post-neonatal mortality in Nigeria calls for attention and efforts to reverse this trend. This paper examines how socioeconomic, cultural, behavioral, and contextual factors interact to influence survival time among deceased newborns in Nigeria.

Methods

Using the neonatal deaths data from the 2014 Nigeria Verbal/ Social Autopsy survey, we examined the temporal distribution of overall and cause-specific mortality of a sample of 723 neonatal deaths. We fitted an extended Cox regression model that also allowed a time-dependent set of risk factors on time-to-neonatal death from all causes, and then separately, from birth injury/birth asphyxia (BIBA) and neonatal infections, while adjusting for possible confounding variables.

Results

Approximately 26% of all neonatal deaths occurred during the first day, 52.8% during the first three days, and 73.9% during the first week of life. Almost all deaths (94.4%) due to BIBA and about 64% from neonatal infections occurred in the first week of life. The expected all-cause mortality hazard was 6.23 times higher on any particular illness day for the deceased newborns who had a severe illness at onset compared to those who did not. While the all-cause mortality hazard ratio of poor vs wealthier households was 0.77 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.648-0.922), the BIBA mortality hazard ratio of households with no electricity was 1.79 times higher compared to households with electricity (95% CI = 1.180-2.715).

Conclusions

The findings suggest the need for continued improvement of the coverage and quality of maternal and neonatal health interventions at birth and in the immediate postnatal period. They may also require confirmation in real-world cohorts with detailed, time-varying information on neonatal mortality.

Factors associated with delay in care-seeking for fatal neonatal illness in the Sylhet district of Bangladesh: results from a verbal and social autopsy study

BACKGROUND

We conducted a social and verbal autopsy study to determine cultural-, social- and health system-related factors that were associated with the delay in formal care seeking in Sylhet district, Bangladesh.

METHODS

Verbal and social autopsy interviews were conducted with mothers who experienced a neonatal death between October 2007 and May 2011. We fitted a semi-parametric regression model of the cumulative incidence of seeking formal care first, accounting for competing events of death or seeking informal care first.

RESULTS

Three hundred and thirty-one neonatal deaths were included in the analysis and of these, 91(27.5%) sought formal care first; 26 (7.9%) sought informal care first; 59 (17.8%) sought informal care only, and 155 (46.8%) did not seek any type of care. There was lower cumulative incidence of seeking formal care first for preterm neonates (sub-hazard ratio SHR 0.61, P = 0.025), and those who delivered at home (SHR 0.52, P = 0.010); and higher cumulative incidence for those who reported less than normal activity (SHR 1.95, P = 0.048). The main barriers to seeking formal care reported by 165 mothers included cost (n = 98, 59.4%), believing the neonate was going to die anyway (n = 29, 17.7%), and believing traditional care was more appropriate (n = 26, 15.8%).

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of neonates died before formal care could be sought, but formal care was more likely to be sought than informal care. There were economic and social belief barriers to care-seeking. There is a need for programs that educate caregivers about well-recognized danger signs requiring timely care-seeking, particularly for preterm neonates and those who deliver at home.

Sociodemographic, behavioral, and environmental factors of child mortality in Eastern Region of Cameroon: results from a social autopsy study

BACKGROUND

While most child deaths are caused by highly preventable and treatable diseases such as pneumonia, diarrhea, and malaria, several sociodemographic, cultural and health system factors work against children surviving from these diseases.

METHODS

A retrospective verbal/social autopsy survey was conducted in 2012 to measure the biological causes and social determinants of under-five years old deaths from 2007 to 2010 in Doume, Nguelemendouka, and Abong-Mbang health districts in the Eastern Region of Cameroon. The present study sought to identify important sociodemographic and household characteristics of the 1-59 month old deaths, including the coverage of key preventive indicators of normal child care, and illness recognition and care-seeking for the children along the Pathway to Survival model.

FINDINGS

Of the 635 deceased children with a completed interview, just 26.8% and 11.2% lived in households with an improved source of drinking water and sanitation, respectively. Almost all of the households (96.1%) used firewood for cooking, and 79.2% (n = 187) of the 236 mothers who cooked inside their home usually had their children beside them when they cooked. When 614 of the children became fatally ill, the majority (83.7%) of caregivers sought or tried to seek formal health care, but with a median delay of 2 days from illness onset to the decision to seek formal care. As a result, many (n = 111) children were taken for care only after their illness progressed from mild or moderate to severe. The main barriers to accessing the formal health system were the expenses for transportation, health care and other related costs.

CONCLUSIONS

The most common social factors that contributed to the deaths of 1-59-month old children in the study setting included poor living conditions, prevailing customs that led to exposure to indoor smoke, and health-related behaviors such as delaying the decision to seek care. Increasing caregivers' ability to recognize the danger signs of childhood illnesses and to facilitate timely and appropriate health care-seeking, and improving standards of living such that parents or caregivers can overcome the economic obstacles, are measures that could make a difference in the survival of the ill children in the study area.

Direct estimates of cause-specific mortality fractions and rates of under-five deaths in the northern and southern regions of Nigeria by verbal autopsy interview

Nigeria’s under-five mortality rate is the eighth highest in the world. Identifying the causes of under-five deaths is crucial to achieving Sustainable Development Goal 3 by 2030 and improving child survival. National and international bodies collaborated in this study to provide the first ever direct estimates of the causes of under-five mortality in Nigeria. Verbal autopsy interviews were conducted of a representative sample of 986 neonatal and 2,268 1–59 month old deaths from 2008 to 2013 identified by the 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. Cause of death was assigned by physician coding and computerized expert algorithms arranged in a hierarchy. National and regional estimates of age distributions, mortality rates and cause proportions, and zonal- and age-specific mortality fractions and rates for leading causes of death were evaluated. More under-fives and 1–59 month olds in the South, respectively, died as neonates (N = 24.1%, S = 32.5%, p<0.001) and at younger ages (p<0.001) than in the North. The leading causes of neonatal and 1–59 month mortality, respectively, were sepsis, birth injury/asphyxia and neonatal pneumonia, and malaria, diarrhea and pneumonia. The preterm delivery (N = 1.2%, S = 3.7%, p = 0.042), pneumonia (N = 15.0%, S = 21.6%, p = 0.004) and malaria (N = 34.7%, S = 42.2%, p = 0.009) fractions were higher in the South, with pneumonia and malaria focused in the South East and South South; while the diarrhea fraction was elevated in the North (N = 24.8%, S = 13.2%, p<0.001). However, the diarrhea, pneumonia and malaria mortality rates were all higher in the North, respectively, by 222.9% (Z = -10.9, p = 0.000), 27.6% (Z = -2.3, p = 0.020) and 50.6% (Z = -5.7, p = 0.000), with the greatest excesses in older children. The findings support that there is an epidemiological transition ongoing in southern Nigeria, suggest the way forward to a similar transition in the North, and can help guide maternal, neonatal and child health programming and their regional and zonal foci within the country.

Social autopsy of neonatal mortality suggests needed improvements in maternal and neonatal interventions in Balaka and Salima districts of Malawi

Background

The Every Newborn Action Plan calls for reducing the neonatal mortality rates to fewer than 10 deaths per 1000 live births in all countries by 2035. The current study aims to increase our understanding of the social and modifiable factors that can be addressed or reinforced to improve and accelerate the decline in neonatal mortality in Malawi.

Methods

The data come from the 2013 Verbal and Social Autopsy (VASA) study that collected data in order to describe the biological causes and the social determinants of deaths of children under 5 years of age in Balaka and Salima districts of Malawi. This paper analyses the social autopsy data of the neonatal deaths and presents results of a review of the coverage of key interventions along the continuum of normal maternal and newborn care and the description of breakdowns in the care provided for neonatal illnesses within the Pathway to Survival framework.

Results

A total of 320 neonatal deaths were confirmed from the VASA survey. While one antenatal care (ANC) visit was high at 94%, the recommended four ANC visits was much lower at 41% and just 17% of the mothers had their urines tested during the pregnancy. 173 (54%) mothers of the deceased newborns had at least one labor/delivery complication that began at home. The caregivers of 65% (n = 75) of the 180 newborns that were born at home or born and left a health facility alive perceived them to be severely ill at the onset of their illness, yet only 44% (n = 80) attempted and 36% (n = 65)could reach the first health provider after an average of 91 minutes travel time. Distance, lack of transport and cost emerged as the most important constraints to formal care–seeking during delivery and during the newborn fatal illness.

Conclusions

This study suggests that maternal and neonatal health organizations and the local government of Malawi should increase the demand for key maternal and child health interventions, including the recommended 4 ANC visits, and ensure urine screening for all pregnant women. Early recognition and referrals of women with obstetric complications and interventions to promote maternal recognition of neonatal illnesses and care–seeking before the child becomes severely ill are also needed to improve newborn survival in Balaka and Salima districts of Malawi.

Understanding Misclassification between Neonatal Deaths and Stillbirths: Empirical Evidence from Malawi

Improving the counting of stillbirths and neonatal deaths is important to tracking Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 and improving vital statistics in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, the validity of self-reported stillbirths and neonatal deaths in surveys is often threatened by misclassification errors between the two birth outcomes. We assessed the extent and correlates of stillbirths being misclassified as neonatal deaths by comparing two recent and linked population surveys conducted in Malawi, one being a full birth history (FBH) survey, and the other a follow-up verbal/social autopsy (VASA) survey. We found that one-fifth of 365 neonatal deaths identified in the FBH survey were classified as stillbirths in the VASA survey. Neonatal deaths with signs of movements in the last few days before delivery reported were less likely to be misclassified stillbirths (OR = 0.08, p<0.05). Having signs of birth injury was found to be associated with higher odds of misclassification (OR = 6.17, p<0.05). We recommend replicating our study with larger sample size in other settings. Additionally, we recommend conducting validation studies to confirm accuracy and completeness of live births and neonatal deaths reported in household surveys with events reported in a full birth history and the extent of underestimation of neonatal mortality resulting from misclassifications. Questions on fetal movement, signs of life at delivery and improved probing among older mother may be useful to improve accuracy of reported events.

Validating hierarchical verbal autopsy expert algorithms in a large data set with known causes of death

BACKGROUND

Physician assessment historically has been the most common method of analyzing verbal autopsy (VA) data. Recently, the World Health Organization endorsed two automated methods, Tariff 2.0 and InterVA-4, which promise greater objectivity and lower cost. A disadvantage of the Tariff method is that it requires a training data set from a prior validation study, while InterVA relies on clinically specified conditional probabilities. We undertook to validate the hierarchical expert algorithm analysis of VA data, an automated, intuitive, deterministic method that does not require a training data set.

METHODS

Using Population Health Metrics Research Consortium study hospital source data, we compared the primary causes of 1629 neonatal and 1456 1-59 month-old child deaths from VA expert algorithms arranged in a hierarchy to their reference standard causes. The expert algorithms were held constant, while five prior and one new "compromise" neonatal hierarchy, and three former child hierarchies were tested. For each comparison, the reference standard data were resampled 1000 times within the range of cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMF) for one of three approximated community scenarios in the 2013 WHO global causes of death, plus one random mortality cause proportions scenario. We utilized CSMF accuracy to assess overall population-level validity, and the absolute difference between VA and reference standard CSMFs to examine particular causes. Chance-corrected concordance (CCC) and Cohen's kappa were used to evaluate individual-level cause assignment.

RESULTS

Overall CSMF accuracy for the best-performing expert algorithm hierarchy was 0.80 (range 0.57-0.96) for neonatal deaths and 0.76 (0.50-0.97) for child deaths. Performance for particular causes of death varied, with fairly flat estimated CSMF over a range of reference values for several causes. Performance at the individual diagnosis level was also less favorable than that for overall CSMF (neonatal: best CCC = 0.23, range 0.16-0.33; best kappa = 0.29, 0.23-0.35; child: best CCC = 0.40, 0.19-0.45; best kappa = 0.29, 0.07-0.35).

CONCLUSIONS

Expert algorithms in a hierarchy offer an accessible, automated method for assigning VA causes of death. Overall population-level accuracy is similar to that of more complex machine learning methods, but without need for a training data set from a prior validation study.

Social determinants of child mortality in Niger: Results from the 2012 National Verbal and Social Autopsy Study

Background

Understanding the determinants of preventable deaths of children under the age of five is important for accelerated annual declines – even as countries achieve the UN’s Millennium Development Goals and the target date of 2015 has been reached. While research has documented the extent and nature of the overall rapid decline in child mortality in Niger, there is less clear evidence to provide insight into the contributors to such deaths. This issue is the central focus of this paper.

Methods

We analyzed a nationally representative cross–sectional sample of 620 child deaths from the 2012 Niger Verbal Autopsy/Social Autopsy (VASA) Survey. We conducted a descriptive analysis of the data on preventive and curative care, guided by the coverage of proven indicators along the continuum of well child care and illness recognition and care–seeking for child illnesses encompassed by the BASICS/CDC Pathway to Survival model.

Results

Six hundred twenty deaths of children (1–59 months of age) were confirmed from the VASA survey. The majority of these children lived in households with precarious socio–economic conditions. Among the 414 children whose fatal illnesses began at age 0–23 months, just 24.4% were appropriately fed. About 24% of children aged 12–59 months were fully immunized. Of 601 children tracked through the Pathway to Survival, 62.4% could reach the first health care provider after about 67 minutes travel time. Of the 306 children who left the first health care provider alive, 161 (52.6%) were not referred for further care nor received any home care recommendations, and just 19% were referred to a second provider. About 113 of the caregivers reported cost (35%), distance (35%) and lack of transport (30%) as constraints to care–seeking at a health facility.

Conclusion

Despite Niger’s recent major achievements in reducing child mortality, the following determinants are crucial to continue building on the gains the country has made: improved socio–economic state of the poor in the country, investment in women’s education, adoption of the a law to prevent marriage of young girls before 18 years of age, and implementation of health programs that encourage breastfeeding and complementary feeding, immunization, illness recognition, prompt and appropriate care–seeking, and improved referral rates.

Verbal/Social Autopsy in Niger 2012-2013: A new tool for a better understanding of the neonatal and child mortality situation

Niger, one of the poorest countries in the world, recently used for the first time the integrated verbal and social autopsy (VASA) tool to assess the biological causes and social and health system determinants of neonatal and child deaths. These notes summarize the Nigerien experience in the use of this new tool, the steps taken for high level engagement of the Niger government and stakeholders for the wide dissemination of the study results and their use to support policy development and maternal, neonatal and child health programming in the country. The experience in Niger reflects lessons learned by other developing countries in strengthening the use of data for evidence–based decision making, and highlights the need for the global health community to provide continued support to country data initiatives, including the collection, analysis, interpretation and utilization of high quality data for the development of targeted, highly effective interventions. In Niger, this is supporting the country’s progress toward achieving Millennium Development Goal 4. A follow–up VASA study is being planned and the tool is being integrated into the National Health Management Information System. VASA studies have now been completed or are under way in additional sub–Saharan African countries, in each through the same collaborative process used in Niger to bring together health policy makers, program planners and development partners.

Verbal/social autopsy study helps explain the lack of decrease in neonatal mortality in Niger, 2007-2010

BACKGROUND

This study was one of a set of verbal/social autopsy (VASA) investigations undertaken by the WHO/UNICEF-supported Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group to estimate the causes and determinants of neonatal and child deaths in high priority countries. The study objective was to help explain the lack of decrease in neonatal mortality in Niger from 2007 to 2010, a period during which child mortality was decreasing.

METHODS

VASA interviews were conducted of a random sample of 453 neonatal deaths identified by the 2010 Niger National Mortality Survey (NNMS). Causes of death were determined by expert algorithm analysis, and the prevalence of household, community and health system determinants were examined along the continuum of maternal and newborn care, the Pathway to Survival for newborn illnesses, and an extended pathway for maternal complications. The social autopsy findings were compared to available data for survivors from the same cohort collected by the NNMS and the 2012 Niger Demographic and Health Survey.

FINDINGS

Severe neonatal infection and birth asphyxia were the leading causes of early neonatal death in the community and facilities. Death in the community after delayed careseeking for severe infection predominated during the late neonatal period. The levels of nearly all demographic, antenatal and delivery care factors were in the direction of risk for the VASA study decedents. They more often resided rurally (P < 0.001) and their mothers were less educated (P = 0.03) and gave birth when younger (P = 0.03) than survivors' mothers. Their mothers also were less likely to receive quality antenatal care (P < 0.001), skilled attendance at birth (P = 0.03) or to deliver in an institution (P < 0.001). Nearly half suffered an obstetric complication, with more maternal infection (17.9% vs 0.2%), antepartum hemorrhage (12.5% vs 0.5%) and eclampsia/preeclampsia (9.5% vs 1.6%) than for all births in Niger. Their mothers also were unlikely to seek health care for their own complications (37% to 42%) as well as for the newborn's illness (30.6%).

CONCLUSIONS

Niger should scale up its recently implemented package of high-impact interventions to additional integrated health facilities and expand the package to provide antenatal care and management of labor and delivery, with support to reach a higher level facility when required. Community interventions are needed to improve illness recognition and careseeking for severe neonatal infection.

A shortened verbal autopsy instrument for use in routine mortality surveillance systems

BACKGROUND

Verbal autopsy (VA) is recognized as the only feasible alternative to comprehensive medical certification of deaths in settings with no or unreliable vital registration systems. However, a barrier to its use by national registration systems has been the amount of time and cost needed for data collection. Therefore, a short VA instrument (VAI) is needed. In this paper we describe a shortened version of the VAI developed for the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC) Gold Standard Verbal Autopsy Validation Study using a systematic approach.

METHODS

We used data from the PHMRC validation study. Using the Tariff 2.0 method, we first established a rank order of individual questions in the PHMRC VAI according to their importance in predicting causes of death. Second, we reduced the size of the instrument by dropping questions in reverse order of their importance. We assessed the predictive performance of the instrument as questions were removed at the individual level by calculating chance-corrected concordance and at the population level with cause-specific mortality fraction (CSMF) accuracy. Finally, the optimum size of the shortened instrument was determined using a first derivative analysis of the decline in performance as the size of the VA instrument decreased for adults, children, and neonates.

RESULTS

The full PHMRC VAI had 183, 127, and 149 questions for adult, child, and neonatal deaths, respectively. The shortened instrument developed had 109, 69, and 67 questions, respectively, representing a decrease in the total number of questions of 40-55%. The shortened instrument, with text, showed non-significant declines in CSMF accuracy from the full instrument with text of 0.4%, 0.0%, and 0.6% for the adult, child, and neonatal modules, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a shortened VAI using a systematic approach, and assessed its performance when administered using hand-held electronic tablets and analyzed using Tariff 2.0. The length of a VA questionnaire was shortened by almost 50% without a significant drop in performance. The shortened VAI developed reduces the burden of time and resources required for data collection and analysis of cause of death data in civil registration systems.

Improving performance of the Tariff Method for assigning causes of death to verbal autopsies

BACKGROUND

Reliable data on the distribution of causes of death (COD) in a population are fundamental to good public health practice. In the absence of comprehensive medical certification of deaths, the only feasible way to collect essential mortality data is verbal autopsy (VA). The Tariff Method was developed by the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC) to ascertain COD from VA information. Given its potential for improving information about COD, there is interest in refining the method. We describe the further development of the Tariff Method.

METHODS

This study uses data from the PHMRC and the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) of Australia studies. Gold standard clinical diagnostic criteria for hospital deaths were specified for a target cause list. VAs were collected from families using the PHMRC verbal autopsy instrument including health care experience (HCE). The original Tariff Method (Tariff 1.0) was trained using the validated PHMRC database for which VAs had been collected for deaths with hospital records fulfilling the gold standard criteria (validated VAs). In this study, the performance of Tariff 1.0 was tested using VAs from household surveys (community VAs) collected for the PHMRC and NHMRC studies. We then corrected the model to account for the previous observed biases of the model, and Tariff 2.0 was developed. The performance of Tariff 2.0 was measured at individual and population levels using the validated PHMRC database.

RESULTS

For median chance-corrected concordance (CCC) and mean cause-specific mortality fraction (CSMF) accuracy, and for each of three modules with and without HCE, Tariff 2.0 performs significantly better than the Tariff 1.0, especially in children and neonates. Improvement in CSMF accuracy with HCE was 2.5%, 7.4%, and 14.9% for adults, children, and neonates, respectively, and for median CCC with HCE it was 6.0%, 13.5%, and 21.2%, respectively. Similar levels of improvement are seen in analyses without HCE.

CONCLUSIONS

Tariff 2.0 addresses the main shortcomings of the application of the Tariff Method to analyze data from VAs in community settings. It provides an estimation of COD from VAs with better performance at the individual and population level than the previous version of this method, and it is publicly available for use.

Social autopsy study identifies determinants of neonatal mortality in Doume, Nguelemendouka and Abong-Mbang health districts, Eastern Region of Cameroon

Background

Reducing preventable medical causes of neonatal death for faster progress toward the MGD4 will require Cameroon to adequately address the social factors contributing to these deaths. The objective of this paper is to explore the social, behavioral and health systems determinants of newborn death in Doume, Nguelemendouka and Abong–Mbang health districts, in Eastern Region of Cameroon, from 2007–2010.

Methods

Data come from the 2012 Verbal/Social Autopsy (VASA) study, which aimed to determine the biological causes and social, behavioral and health systems determinants of under–five deaths in Doume, Nguelemendouka and Abong–Mbang health districts in Eastern Region of Cameroon. The analysis of the data was guided by the review of the coverage of key interventions along the continuum of normal maternal and newborn care and by the description of breakdowns in the care provided for severe neonatal illnesses within the Pathway to Survival conceptual framework.

Results

One hundred sixty–four newborn deaths were confirmed from the VASA survey. The majority of the deceased newborns were living in households with poor socio–economic conditions. Most (60–80%) neonates were born to mothers who had one or more pregnancy or labor and delivery complications. Only 23% of the deceased newborns benefited from hygienic cord care after birth. Half received appropriate thermal care and only 6% were breastfed within one hour after birth. Sixty percent of the deaths occurred during the first day of life. Fifty–five percent of the babies were born at home. More than half of the deaths (57%) occurred at home. Of the 64 neonates born at a health facility, about 63% died in the health facility without leaving. Careseeking was delayed for several neonates who became sick after the first week of life and whose illnesses were less serious at the onset until they became more severely ill. Cost, including for transport, health care and other expenses, emerged as main barriers to formal care–seeking both for the mothers and their newborns.

Conclusions

This study presents an opportunity to strengthen maternal and newborn health by increasing the coverage of essential and low cost interventions that could have saved the lives of many newborns in eastern Cameroon.

Direct estimates of national neonatal and child cause-specific mortality proportions in Niger by expert algorithm and physician-coded analysis of verbal autopsy interviews

BACKGROUND

This study was one of a set of verbal autopsy investigations undertaken by the WHO/UNCEF-supported Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group (CHERG) to derive direct estimates of the causes of neonatal and child deaths in high priority countries of sub-Saharan Africa. The objective of the study was to determine the cause distributions of neonatal (0-27 days) and child (1-59 months) mortality in Niger.

METHODS

Verbal autopsy interviews were conducted of random samples of 453 neonatal deaths and 620 child deaths from 2007 to 2010 identified by the 2011 Niger National Mortality Survey. The cause of each death was assigned using two methods: computerized expert algorithms arranged in a hierarchy and physician completion of a death certificate for each child. The findings of the two methods were compared to each other, and plausibility checks were conducted to assess which is the preferred method. Comparison of some direct measures from this study with CHERG modeled cause of death estimates are discussed.

FINDINGS

The cause distributions of neonatal deaths as determined by expert algorithms and the physician were similar, with the same top three causes by both methods and all but two other causes within one rank of each other. Although child causes of death differed more, the reasons often could be discerned by analyzing algorithmic criteria alongside the physician's application of required minimal diagnostic criteria. Including all algorithmic (primary and co-morbid) and physician (direct, underlying and contributing) diagnoses in the comparison minimized the differences, with kappa coefficients greater than 0.40 for five of 11 neonatal diagnoses and nine of 13 child diagnoses. By algorithmic diagnosis, early onset neonatal infection was significantly associated (χ(2) = 13.2, P < 0.001) with maternal infection, and the geographic distribution of child meningitis deaths closely corresponded with that for meningitis surveillance cases and deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

Verbal autopsy conducted in the context of a national mortality survey can provide useful estimates of the cause distributions of neonatal and child deaths. While the current study found reasonable agreement between the expert algorithm and physician analyses, it also demonstrated greater plausibility for two algorithmic diagnoses and validation work is needed to ascertain the findings. Direct, large-scale measurement of causes of death complement, can strengthen, and in some settings may be preferred over modeled estimates.

Using verbal autopsy to measure causes of death: the comparative performance of existing methods

BACKGROUND

Monitoring progress with disease and injury reduction in many populations will require widespread use of verbal autopsy (VA). Multiple methods have been developed for assigning cause of death from a VA but their application is restricted by uncertainty about their reliability.

METHODS

We investigated the validity of five automated VA methods for assigning cause of death: InterVA-4, Random Forest (RF), Simplified Symptom Pattern (SSP), Tariff method (Tariff), and King-Lu (KL), in addition to physician review of VA forms (PCVA), based on 12,535 cases from diverse populations for which the true cause of death had been reliably established. For adults, children, neonates and stillbirths, performance was assessed separately for individuals using sensitivity, specificity, Kappa, and chance-corrected concordance (CCC) and for populations using cause specific mortality fraction (CSMF) accuracy, with and without additional diagnostic information from prior contact with health services. A total of 500 train-test splits were used to ensure that results are robust to variation in the underlying cause of death distribution.

RESULTS

Three automated diagnostic methods, Tariff, SSP, and RF, but not InterVA-4, performed better than physician review in all age groups, study sites, and for the majority of causes of death studied. For adults, CSMF accuracy ranged from 0.764 to 0.770, compared with 0.680 for PCVA and 0.625 for InterVA; CCC varied from 49.2% to 54.1%, compared with 42.2% for PCVA, and 23.8% for InterVA. For children, CSMF accuracy was 0.783 for Tariff, 0.678 for PCVA, and 0.520 for InterVA; CCC was 52.5% for Tariff, 44.5% for PCVA, and 30.3% for InterVA. For neonates, CSMF accuracy was 0.817 for Tariff, 0.719 for PCVA, and 0.629 for InterVA; CCC varied from 47.3% to 50.3% for the three automated methods, 29.3% for PCVA, and 19.4% for InterVA. The method with the highest sensitivity for a specific cause varied by cause.

CONCLUSIONS

Physician review of verbal autopsy questionnaires is less accurate than automated methods in determining both individual and population causes of death. Overall, Tariff performs as well or better than other methods and should be widely applied in routine mortality surveillance systems with poor cause of death certification practices.

Training laboratory technicians from the Ethiopian periphery in the MODS technique enables rapid and low-cost diagnosis of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection

Tuberculosis (TB) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality and is frequently complicated by emergence of drug-resistant strains. Diagnosis of TB in developing countries is often based on the relatively insensitive acid-fast staining that does not enable susceptibility profiling. Microscopic observation drug susceptibility assay (MODS) is an inexpensive, simple method that enables rapid TB culture coupled with susceptibility testing. A 3-week MODS training of three Ethiopian laboratory technicians was conducted at Hadassah-Hebrew University Medical Center, Israel. Results of the trainee readings were blindly assessed by an experienced instructor. Two hundred fifty-five (255) trainee culture readings were evaluated throughout the course. The sensitivity and specificity were 75-100% and 31.5-100%, respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed that sensitivity and duration of incubation were positively correlated, although specificity was positively correlated with the length of training. MODS can be reliably performed by laboratory technicians inexperienced in culture techniques in developing countries, with high sensitivity and specificity reached after a brief learning period.

Verbal autopsy for neurological diseases

Verbal autopsy is an interview-based technique to determine the cause distribution of death in a population. The use of verbal autopsy for understanding neurological diseases is crucial to burden of disease analyses in many countries, particularly in locations where civil registration systems are non-functioning or absent. We review the purposes, strengths, and weaknesses in the use of verbal autopsy for neurological diseases.

Maternal death inquiry and response in India--the impact of contextual factors on defining an optimal model to help meet critical maternal health policy objectives

BACKGROUND

Maternal death reviews have been utilized in several countries as a means of identifying social and health care quality issues affecting maternal survival. From 2005 to 2009, a standardized community-based maternal death inquiry and response initiative was implemented in eight Indian states with the aim of addressing critical maternal health policy objectives. However, state-specific contextual factors strongly influenced the effort's success. This paper examines the impact and implications of the contextual factors.

METHODS

We identified community, public health systems and governance related contextual factors thought to affect the implementation, utilization and up-scaling of the death inquiry process. Then, according to selected indicators, we documented the contextual factors' presence and their impact on the process' success in helping meet critical maternal health policy objectives in four districts of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and West Bengal. Based on this assessment, we propose an optimal model for conducting community-based maternal death inquiries in India and similar settings.

RESULTS

The death inquiry process led to increases in maternal death notification and investigation whether civil society or government took charge of these tasks, stimulated sharing of the findings in multiple settings and contributed to the development of numerous evidence-based local, district and statewide maternal health interventions. NGO inputs were essential where communities, public health systems and governance were weak and boosted effectiveness in stronger settings. Public health systems participation was enabled by responsive and accountable governance. Communities participated most successfully through India's established local governance Panchayat Raj Institutions. In one instance this led to the development of a multi-faceted intervention well-integrated at multiple levels.

CONCLUSIONS

The impact of several contextual factors on the death inquiry process could be discerned, and suggested an optimal implementation model. District and state government must mandate and support the process, while the district health office should provide overall coordination, manage the death inquiry data as part of its routine surveillance programme, and organize a highly participatory means, preferably within an existing structure, of sharing the findings with the community and developing evidence-based maternal health interventions. NGO assistance and the support of a development partner may be needed, particularly in locales with weaker communities, public health systems or governance.

Social autopsy for maternal and child deaths: a comprehensive literature review to examine the concept and the development of the method

"Social autopsy" refers to an interview process aimed at identifying social, behavioral, and health systems contributors to maternal and child deaths. It is often combined with a verbal autopsy interview to establish the biological cause of death. Two complementary purposes of social autopsy include providing population-level data to health care programmers and policymakers to utilize in developing more effective strategies for delivering maternal and child health care technologies, and increasing awareness of maternal and child death as preventable problems in order to empower communities to participate and engage health programs to increase their responsiveness and accountability.Through a comprehensive review of the literature, this paper examines the concept and development of social autopsy, focusing on the contributions of the Pathway Analysis format for child deaths and the Maternal and Perinatal Death Inquiry and Response program in India to social autopsy's success in meeting key objectives. The Pathway Analysis social autopsy format, based on the Pathway to Survival model designed to support the Integrated Management of Childhood Illness approach, was developed from 1995 to 2001 and has been utilized in studies in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Adoption of the Pathway model has enriched the data gathered on care seeking for child illnesses and supported the development of demand- and supply-side interventions. The instrument has recently been updated to improve the assessment of neonatal deaths and is soon to be utilized in large-scale population-representative verbal/social autopsy studies in several African countries. Maternal death audit, starting with confidential inquiries into maternal deaths in Britain more than 50 years ago, is a long-accepted strategy for reducing maternal mortality. More recently, maternal social autopsy studies that supported health programming have been conducted in several developing countries. From 2005 to 2009, 10 high-mortality states in India conducted community-based maternal verbal/social autopsies with participatory data sharing with communities and health programs that resulted in the implementation of numerous data-driven maternal health interventions.Social autopsy is a powerful tool with the demonstrated ability to raise awareness, provide evidence in the form of actionable data and increase motivation at all levels to take appropriate and effective actions. Further development of the methodology along with standardized instruments and supporting tools are needed to promote its wide-scale adoption and use.

Risk factors for antibiotic-resistant Escherichia coli carriage in young children in Peru: community-based cross-sectional prevalence study

Few studies have examined the influence of individual-, household-, and community-scale risk factors on carriage of resistant commensal bacteria. We determined children's medical, agricultural, and environmental exposures by household, pharmacy, and health facility surveys and Escherichia coli cultures of children, mothers' hands, household animals, and market chickens in Peru. Among 522 children with a positive stool culture, by log-binomial regression, using "any antibiotic" and 1-14 (versus 0) sulfa doses in the past 3 months increased children's risk, respectively, for ampicillin- and sulfamethoxazole-resistant E. coli carriage (P = 0.01-0.02). Each household member taking "any antibiotic" increased children's risk for sulfamethoxazole- and multidrug-resistant E. coli carriage (P < 0.0001). Residence in a zone where a larger proportion of households served home-raised chicken (as contrasted with intensively antibiotic-raised market chicken) protected against carrying E. coli resistant to all drugs (P = 0.0004-0.04). Environmental contamination with drug-resistant bacteria appeared to significantly contribute to children's carriage of antibiotic-resistant E. coli.

Prospective community-based cluster census and case-control study of stillbirths and neonatal deaths in the West Bank and Gaza Strip

Obstetric complications and newborn illnesses amenable to basic medical interventions underlie most perinatal deaths. Yet, despite good access to maternal and newborn care in many transitional countries, perinatal mortality is often not monitored in these settings. The present study identified risk factors for perinatal death and the level and causes of stillbirths and neonatal deaths in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Baseline and follow-up censuses with prospective monitoring of pregnant women and newborns from September 2001 to August 2002 were conducted in 83 randomly selected clusters of 300 households each. A total of 113 of 116 married women 15-49 years old with a stillbirth or neonatal death and 813 randomly selected women with a surviving neonate were interviewed, and obstetric and newborn care records of women with a stillbirth or neonatal death were abstracted. The perinatal and neonatal mortality rates, respectively, were 21.2 [95% confidence interval (CI) 16.5, 25.9] and 14.7 [95% CI 10.2, 19.2] per 1000 livebirths. The most common cause (27%) of 96 perinatal deaths was asphyxia alone (21) or with neonatal sepsis (5), while 18/49 (37%) early and 9/19 (47%) late neonatal deaths were from respiratory distress syndrome (12) or sepsis (9) alone or together (6). Constraint in care seeking, mainly by an Israeli checkpoint, occurred in 8% and 10%, respectively, of 112 pregnancies and labours and 31% of 16 neonates prior to perinatal or late neonatal death. Poor quality care for a complication associated with the death was identified among 40% and 20%, respectively, of 112 pregnancies and labour/deliveries and 43% of 68 neonates. (Correction added after online publication 5 June 2008: The denominators 112 pregnancies, labours, and labour/deliveries, and 16 and 68 neonates were included; and 9% of labours was corrected to 10%.) Risk factors for perinatal death as assessed by multivariable logistic regression included preterm delivery (odds ratio [OR] = 11.9, [95% CI 6.7, 21.2]), antepartum haemorrhage (OR = 5.6, [95% CI 1.5, 20.9]), any severe pregnancy complication (OR = 3.4, [95% CI 1.8, 6.6]), term delivery in a government hospital and having a labour and delivery complication (OR = 3.8, [95% CI 1.2, 12.0]), more than one delivery complication (OR = 4.4, [95% CI 1.8, 10.5]), mother's age >35 years (OR = 2.9, [95% CI 1.3, 6.8]) and primiparity in a full-term pregnancy (OR = 2.6, [1.1, 6.3]). Stillbirths are not officially reportable in the West Bank and Gaza Strip and this is the first time that perinatal mortality has been examined. Interventions to lower stillbirths and neonatal deaths should focus on improving the quality of medical care for important obstetric complications and newborn illnesses. Other transitional countries can draw lessons for their health care systems from these findings.

Factors constraining adherence to referral advice for severely ill children managed by the Integrated Management of Childhood Illness approach in Imbabura Province, Ecuador

AIM

Low referral completion rates in developing countries undermine the Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) strategy for lowering child mortality. This study sought to identify factors constraining adherence to referral advice in a health system using the IMCI approach.

METHODS

Caregivers of 160 children urgently referred to hospital were prospectively interviewed. Caregivers who accessed and did not access hospital were compared for potential referral constraining factors, including demographics, family dynamics, the severity of their child's illness, their interaction with the health system, self-perceived problems, and physical and financial access.

RESULTS

67/160 (42%) referred children did not access hospital. Six factors were associated with non-access, including two health worker actions: not being given a referral slip [adjusted odds ratio (OR)= 15.3, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 4.4-64.6] and not being told to go to the hospital immediately (adjusted OR = 5.3, 95% CI 1.9-16.3). Receiving both of these interventions reduced the risk of not accessing hospital to 19%, from 96% for those who received neither intervention. Several indicators of illness severity, including caregivers' ranking of their children's illness severity, the presence of severe illness signs and mortality, were investigated and found not to be important explanatory factors.

CONCLUSION

Providing a referral slip and counseling the caregivers of severely ill children to go to the hospital immediately appear to be powerful tools for increasing successful referral outcomes.

Antimicrobial susceptibilities and serotype distribution of Streptococcus pneumoniae isolates from a Low socioeconomic area in Lima, Peru

Streptococcus pneumoniae isolates were obtained from nasopharyngeal swabs taken from children living in a low socioeconomic area of Lima, Peru, to determine the rates of antimicrobial resistance and serotype distribution. A total of 146 nasopharyngeal isolates were collected from children from 3 to 38 months of age. Twenty-one clinical laboratory isolates from both sterile and nonsterile sites were obtained from a local hospital. Isolates with reduced susceptibilities to penicillin represented 15.1 and 42.9% of the nasopharyngeal and clinical isolates, respectively. For neither group of isolates did penicillin MICs exceed 1.5 micro g/ml, indicating only intermediate resistance. Thirty-two different serotypes were identified from the 146 nasopharyngeal isolates. The serotypes of the clinical isolates were represented among those 32 types. Isolates with reduced susceptibility to multiple antimicrobial agents were present in both settings. These findings indicate some of the highest rates of antimicrobial resistance in the region as well as a slightly different serotype distribution pattern from those of other South American countries. The 7-valent conjugate pneumococcal vaccines would only have a limited effect, providing coverage for about half of all isolates. Increasing rates of resistance in Peru necessitate an awareness of antimicrobial treatment practices and vaccination strategies.

Diagnosis and management of febrile children using the WHO/UNICEF guidelines for IMCI in Dhaka, Bangladesh

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether the fever module in the WHO/UNICEF guidelines for the integrated management of childhood illness (IMCI) identifies children with bacterial infections in an area of low malaria prevalence.

METHODS

Physicians assessed a systematic sample of 669 sick children aged 2-59 months who presented to the outpatient department of Dhaka Shishu Hospital, Bangladesh.

FINDINGS

Had IMCI guidelines been used to evaluate the children, 78% of those with bacterial infections would have received antibiotics: the majority of children with meningitis (100%), pneumonia (95%), otitis media (95%) and urinary tract infection (83%); and 50% or less of children with bacteraemia (50%), dysentery (48%), and skin infections (30%). The current fever module identified only one additional case of meningitis. Children with bacteraemia were more likely to be febrile, feel hot, and have a history of fever than those with dysentery and skin infections. Fever combined with parental perception of fast breathing provided a more sensitive fever module for the detection of bacteraemia than the current IMCI module.

CONCLUSIONS

In an area of low malaria prevalence, the IMCI guidelines provide antibiotics to the majority of children with bacterial infections, but improvements in the fever module are possible.

Validation of caregiver interviews to diagnose common causes of severe neonatal illness

The objective of this study was to validate retrospective caregiver interviews for diagnosing major causes of severe neonatal illness and death. A convenience sample of 149 infants aged < 28 days with one or more suspected diagnoses of interest (low birthweight/severe malnutrition, preterm birth, birth asphyxia, birth trauma, neonatal tetanus, pneumonia, meningitis, septicaemia, diarrhoea, congenital malformation or injury) was taken from patients admitted to two hospitals in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Study paediatricians performed a standardised history and physical examination and ordered laboratory and radiographic tests according to study criteria. With a median interval of 64.5 days after death or hospital discharge, caregivers of 118 (79%) infants were interviewed about their child's illness. Using reference diagnoses based on predefined clinical and laboratory criteria, the sensitivity and specificity of particular combinations of signs (algorithms) reported by the caregivers were ascertained. Sufficient numbers of children with five reference standard diagnoses were studied to validate caregiver reports. Algorithms with sensitivity and specificity > 80% were identified for neonatal tetanus, low birthweight/severe malnutrition and preterm delivery. Algorithms with specificities > 80% for birth asphyxia and pneumonia had sensitivities < 70%, or alternatively had high sensitivity with lower specificity. In settings with limited access to medical care, retrospective caregiver interviews provide a valid means of diagnosing several of the most common causes of severe neonatal illness and death.

Potential implications of the integrated management of childhood illness (IMCI) for hospital referral and pharmaceutical usage in western Uganda

The integrated management of childhood illness approach (IMCI) is currently being implemented by a number of countries worldwide. This is the second report from a study in western Uganda comparing the assessment and classification of disease by medical assistants using the IMCI algorithm with that of hospital-based general medical officers, who used their clinical judgement to assess and provide treatment. Treatment prescribed by the hospital medical officers was compared to that indicated by IMCI disease classifications. The study population comprised 1226 children aged 2-59 months. Medical assistants had some difficulty in completing the IMCI assessment, leading to incorrect classification of findings in 138 of 1086 completed forms (13%). If their classifications had been used to decide on hospital referral, 37 children who met IMCI criteria for referral would have been sent home. Consultations took on average 7.2 min, longer than usual for several African countries. Use of the IMCI guidelines would have referred 16.2% of children to hospital, compared with 22% referred by the medical officers. Use of IMCI could have reduced the cost of medication to US$0.17 per child compared to the treatment cost of US$0.82 as prescribed by medical officers. Medical officers prescribed both a greater number and a greater variety of drugs than indicated by the IMCI algorithm. Compared to the present management of sick children by medical officers at Kabarole district hospital, using the IMCI algorithm would bring major changes in pharmaceutical use and referral practices. However, there is concern about the difficulty medical assistants had in using it, and the potential for longer consultation times.

Decrease in infant mortality in New York City after 1989

OBJECTIVES

This study identified factors contributing to the rapid decline in infant mortality in New York City from 1989 to 1992.

METHODS

Changes in birthweight distributions and in birthweight/age-, cause-, and birthweight/age/cause-specific mortality rates from 1988/89 (before the mortality reduction) to 1990/91 were identified from New York City vital statistics data.

RESULTS

Infant, neonatal, and postneonatal mortality of very-low-birthweight (< 1500 g) and normal-birthweight infants decreased significantly. The declines were almost entirely due to decreases in birthweight-specific mortality rates, rather than increased birthweights. All races experienced most of these reductions. Mortality decreased significantly for 6 causes of death. These decreases were consistent with the birthweight/age groups experiencing mortality declines.

CONCLUSIONS

Widespread, multiple perinatal and postnatal factors contributed to the decline in infant mortality.

The integrated management of childhood illness in western Uganda

Bringing together various disease-specific guidelines for sick children, WHO and UNICEF have developed an Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) algorithm, one component of which (assess and classify) was tested in the outpatient department of a rural district hospital in western Uganda. Children aged 2-59 months were seen first by a Ugandan medical assistant trained in IMCI, and then evaluated by a medical officer. Sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive values were determined by comparing the IMCI classifications with a reference standard based on the medical officers' diagnoses and laboratory tests. Of the 1226 children seen, 69% were classified into more than one symptom category, 7% were not classified in any symptom category, 8% had a danger sign, and 16% were classified into a severe category, for which the IMCI approach recommended urgent hospital referral. Specificity for most classifications was good, though sensitivity and positive predictive values were variable. We conclude that the IMCI algorithm is an important advance in the primary care of sick children in developing countries.

Evaluation of clinical signs to diagnose anaemia in Uganda and Bangladesh, in areas with and without malaria

The object of this study was to assess the ability of pallor and other clinical signs, including those in the Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) guidelines developed by WHO and UNICEF, to identify severe anaemia and some anaemia in developing country settings with and without malaria. A total of 1226 and 668 children aged 2 months to 5 years were prospectively sampled from patients presenting at, respectively, a district hospital in rural Uganda and a children's hospital in Dhaka, Bangladesh. The study physicians obtained a standardized history and carried out a physical examination that included pallor, signs of respiratory distress, and the remaining IMCI referral signs. The haematocrit or haemoglobin level was determined in all children with conjunctival or palmar pallor, and in a sample of the rest. Children with a blood level measurement and assessment of pallor at both sites were included in the anaemia analysis. Using the haematocrit or haemoglobin level as the reference standard, the correctness of assessments using severe and some pallor and other clinical signs in classifying severe and some anaemia was determined. While the full IMCI process would have referred most of the children in Uganda and nearly all the children in Bangladesh with severe anaemia to hospital, few would have received a diagnosis of severe anaemia. Severe palmar and conjunctival pallor, individually and together, had 10-50% sensitivity and 99% specificity for severe anaemia; the addition of grunting increased the sensitivity to 37-80% while maintaining a reasonable positive predictive value. Palmar pallor did not work as well as conjunctival pallor in Bangladesh for the detection for severe or some anaemia. Combining "conjunctival or palmar pallor" detected 71-87% of moderate anaemia and half or more of mild anaemia. About half the children with no anaemia were incorrectly classified as having "moderate or mild" anaemia. Anaemia was more easily diagnosed in Uganda in children with malaria. Our results show that simple clinical signs can correctly classify the anaemia status of most children. Grunting may serve as a useful adjunct to pallor in the diagnosis of severe anaemia. Conjunctival pallor should be added to the IMCI anaemia box, or the guidelines need to be adapted in regions where palmar pallor may not readily be detected.

Identifying sick children requiring referral to hospital in Bangladesh

The object of this study was to evaluate and improve the guidelines for the Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) with respect to identifying young infants and children requiring referral to hospital in an area of low malaria prevalence. A total of 234 young infants (aged 1 week to 2 months) and 668 children (aged 2 months to 5 years) were prospectively sampled from patients presenting at a children's hospital in Dhaka, Bangladesh. The study paediatricians obtained a standardized history and carried out a physical examination, including items in the IMCI guidelines developed by WHO and UNICEF. The paediatricians made a provisional diagnosis and judged whether each patient needed hospital admission. Using the paediatrician's assessment of a need for admission as the standard, the sensitivity and specificity of the current and modified IMCI guidelines for correctly referring patients to hospital were examined. The IMCI's sensitivity for a paediatrician's assessment in favour of hospital admission was 84% (95% confidence interval (CI): 75-90) for young infants and 86% (95% CI: 81-90) for children, and the specificity was, respectively, 54% (95% CI: 45-63) and 64% (95% CI: 59-69). One fourth or more in each group had a provisional diagnosis of pneumonia, and the IMCI's specificity was increased without lowering sensitivity by modifying the respiratory signs calling for referral. These results show that the IMCI has good sensitivity for correctly referring young infants and children requiring hospital admission in a developing country setting with a low prevalence of malaria. The guidelines' moderate specificity will result in considerable over-referral of patients not needing admission, thereby decreasing opportunities for successful treatment of patients at first-level health facilities. The impact of the IMCI guidelines on children's health and the health care system must be judged in the light of current treatment practices, health outcomes and referral patterns.

Validation of the diagnosis of childhood morbidity using maternal health interviews

The diagnosis of childhood illness by maternal health interview surveys is widely used to estimate the prevalence of childhood morbidity in developing countries. To determine the validity of interview-based diagnoses, and to define simple, sensitive and specific diagnostic algorithms, we compared symptoms and signs reported by mothers during structured interviews with physicians' diagnoses for 271 children on the Philippine island of Cebu. The 271 children had 318 physician diagnosed illnesses: 105 acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI), 121 diarrhoeas, 36 measles, 50 upper respiratory infections (URTI), 5 roseola infantums and one milaria rubria. An algorithm for measles (age greater than or equal to 120 days, rash and fever greater than or equal to 3 days and fading of rash) had a sensitivity and specificity of 94%. For ALRI an algorithm of cough, dysponea and fever had a sensitivity of 82%, but specificity was lower in comparison with URTI (58%) than with children who had no respiratory illness (79%). Inclusion of signs of respiratory distress (flaring of nostrils, intercostal retraction) raised the specificity to 83-84%, but reduced sensitivity to 68%. Diagnosis of diarrhoea based on frequent loose or liquid stools had a sensitivity of 95-97% and specificity of 80% in children with or without concomitant non-diarrhoeal illnesses. Addition of questions on numbers of stools (greater than or equal to 6 per day), and no signs of dehydration increased specificity to 95% but reduced the sensitivity to 84-86%. However, specific signs of dehydration were not well reported by the mothers.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

The role of ethanol abuse in the etiology of heroin-related death

Toxicology analyses and other forensic science data were used to examine the mechanisms through which ethanol increased the risk for death caused by injected street preparations of heroin. The authors studied 505 victims of fatal heroin overdose and compared subjects who had concentrations of blood ethanol greater than 1000 mg/L (n = 306) with those who had concentrations less than, or equal to 1000 mg/L (n = 199). We found significant negative correlations between concentrations of ethanol and morphine (a heroin metabolite) in blood (R2 = 0.11, P = 0.0001 for log10-transformed variables) as well as between concentrations of blood ethanol and bile morphine (R2 = 0.16, P = 0.0001 for log10 bile morphine versus blood morphine). Toxicologic evidence of infrequent heroin use was more common in decedents with blood ethanol concentrations greater than 1000 mg/L than in those with lower concentrations. Our data suggest that ethanol enhances the acute toxicity of heroin, and that ethanol use indirectly influences fatal overdose through its association with infrequent (nonaddictive) heroin use and thus with reduced tolerance to the acute toxic effects of heroin.

Validation of postmortem interviews to ascertain selected causes of death in children

In developing countries, diagnoses of diseases associated with deaths in children are frequently derived from retrospective maternal interviews. To determine the validity of this methodology, and to define sensitive and specific diagnostic algorithms, we compared symptoms and signs reported by mothers using structured questionnaires, with selected physician diagnoses for 164 deaths among hospitalized children on the Philippine island of Cebu. The 164 decreased children had 256 physician diagnoses of acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI) (100), diarrhoeas (92), measles (48), and neonatal tetanus cases (16). Forty-three per cent of children had multiple illnesses. An algorithm for tetanus (age at death less than or equal to 30 days with convulsion or spasm) was 100% sensitive, but specificity could not be estimated due to the small number of comparison neonatal deaths. An algorithm for measles (age greater than or equal to 120 days, with rash and fever for at least three days) had 98% sensitivity and 90% specificity. Diagnosis of ALRI was more difficult, cough and dyspnoea alone yielding 86% sensitivity but low specificity, whereas prolonged cough and dyspnoea provided 93% specificity but low sensitivity (41%). Diarrhoea diagnoses based on frequent loose or liquid stools had high sensitivity (78-84%) and specificity (79%), irrespective of whether the child died with diarrhoea alone or in combination with other illnesses. However, maternal reports of moderate/severe dehydration had low specificity. We conclude that, in this setting, verbal autopsies can diagnose major illnesses contributing to death in children with acceptable sensitivity and specificity.

Temporal clustering of heroin overdoses in Washington, DC

During the 5-day period from 28 Feb. 1985 through 4 March 1985, 24 heroin overdoses occurred in the District of Columbia. Statistical tests for clustering of fatal and nonfatal overdoses during this interval identified 7 heroin-related deaths that occurred on March 1 to 2 as a statistically significant cluster (p = 0.007). An extension of the analysis for clustering to a 15-month period identified 2 additional clusters, 1 of fatal overdoses and 1 of nonfatal ones. When all victims of fatal overdose in cluster intervals were combined and compared with all other heroin-related deaths, no significant differences were noted for levels of morphine or ethanol in blood. However, bile morphine concentrations of cluster decedents were significantly lower than those of noncluster decedents (p = 0.033), suggesting that these decedents were less tolerant to the effects of narcotics than the comparison group. Heroin concentrations in street-level heroin samples collected during clusters did not differ from those collected during comparison intervals. These data conflict with the traditional explanation of overdose clusters, which attributes these events to unusually potent street-level heroin.