Can size distributions of European lake fish communities be predicted by trophic positions of their fish species?

An organism's body size plays an important role in ecological interactions such as predator–prey relationships. As predators are typically larger than their prey, this often leads to a strong positive relationship between body size and trophic position in aquatic ecosystems. The distribution of body sizes in a community can thus be an indicator of the strengths of predator–prey interactions. The aim of this study was to gain more insight into the relationship between fish body size distribution and trophic position in a wide range of European lakes. We used quantile regression to examine the relationship between fish species' trophic position and their log‐transformed maximum body mass for 48 fish species found in 235 European lakes. Subsequently, we examined whether the slopes of the continuous community size distributions, estimated by maximum likelihood, were predicted by trophic position, predator–prey mass ratio (PPMR), or abundance (number per unit effort) of fish communities in these lakes. We found a positive linear relationship between species' maximum body mass and average trophic position in fishes only for the 75% quantile, contrasting our expectation that species' trophic position systematically increases with maximum body mass for fish species in European lakes. Consequently, the size spectrum slope was not related to the average community trophic position, but there were negative effects of community PPMR and total fish abundance on the size spectrum slope. We conclude that predator–prey interactions likely do not contribute strongly to shaping community size distributions in these lakes.

Complex and divergent histories gave rise to genome-wide divergence patterns amongst European whitefish (Coregonus lavaretus)

Pleistocene glaciations dramatically affected species distribution in regions that were impacted by ice cover and subsequent postglacial range expansion impacted contemporary biodiversity in complex ways. The European whitefish, Coregonus lavaretus, is a widely distributed salmonid fish species on mainland Europe, but in Britain it has only seven native populations, all of which are found on the western extremes of the island. The origins and colonization routes of the species into Britain are unknown but likely contributed to contemporary genetic patterns and regional uniqueness. Here, we used up to 25,751 genome‐wide polymorphic loci to reconstruct the history and to discern the demographic and evolutionary forces underpinning divergence between British populations. Overall, we found lower genetic diversity in Scottish populations but high differentiation (F_ST = 0.433–0.712) from the English/Welsh and other European populations. Differentiation was elevated genome‐wide rather than in particular genomic regions. Demographic modelling supported a postglacial colonization into western Scotland from northern refugia and a separate colonization route for the English/Welsh populations from southern refugia, with these two groups having been separated for more than ca. 50 Ky. We found cyto‐nuclear discordance at a European scale, with the Scottish populations clustering closely with Baltic population in the mtDNA analysis but not in the nuclear data, and with the Norwegian and Alpine populations displaying the same mtDNA haplotype but being distantly related in the nuclear tree. These findings suggest that neutral processes, primarily drift and regionally distinct pre‐glacial evolutionary histories, are important drivers of genomic divergence in British populations of European whitefish. This sheds new light on the establishment of the native British freshwater fauna after the last glacial maximum.

Rapid adaptation through genomic and epigenomic responses following translocations in an endangered salmonid

Identifying the molecular mechanisms facilitating adaptation to new environments is a key question in evolutionary biology, especially in the face of current rapid and human-induced changes. Translocations have become an important tool for species conservation, but the attendant small population sizes and new ecological pressures might affect phenotypic and genotypic variation and trajectories dramatically and in unknown ways. In Scotland, the European whitefish (Coregonus lavaretus) is native to only two lakes and vulnerable to extirpation. Six new refuge populations were established over the last 30 years as a conservation measure. In this study, we examined whether there is a predictable ecological and evolutionary response of these fishes to translocation. We found eco-morphological differences, as functional traits relating to body shape differed between source and refuge populations. Dual isotopic analyses suggested some ecological release, with the diets in refuge populations being more diverse than in source populations. Analyses of up to 9117 genome-mapped SNPs showed that refuge populations had reduced genetic diversity and elevated inbreeding and relatedness relative to source populations, though genomic differentiation was low (F ST = 0.002-0.030). We identified 14 genomic SNPs that showed shared signals of a selective response to translocations, including some located near or within genes involved in the immune system, nervous system and hepatic functions. Analysis of up to 120,897 epigenomic loci identified a component of consistent differential methylation between source and refuge populations. We found that epigenomic variation and genomic variation were associated with morphological variation, but we were not able to infer an effect of population age because the patterns were also linked with the methodology of the translocations. These results show that conservation-driven translocations affect evolutionary potential by impacting eco-morphological, genomic and epigenomic components of diversity, shedding light on acclimation and adaptation process in these contexts.

Read counts from environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding reflect fish abundance and biomass in drained ponds

The sampling of environmental DNA (eDNA) coupled with cost-efficient and ever-advancing sequencing technology is propelling changes in biodiversity monitoring within aquatic ecosystems. Despite the increasing number of eDNA metabarcoding approaches, the ability to quantify species biomass and abundance in natural systems is still not fully understood. Previous studies have shown positive but sometimes weak correlations between abundance estimates from eDNA metabarcoding data and from conventional capture methods. As both methods have independent biases a lack of concordance is difficult to interpret. Here we tested whether read counts from eDNA metabarcoding provide accurate quantitative estimates of the absolute abundance of fish in holding ponds with known fish biomass and number of individuals. Environmental DNA samples were collected from two fishery ponds with high fish density and broad species diversity. In one pond, two different DNA capture strategies (on-site filtration with enclosed filters and three different preservation buffers versus lab filtration using open filters) were used to evaluate their performance in relation to fish community composition and biomass/abundance estimates. Fish species read counts were significantly correlated with both biomass and abundance, and this result, together with information on fish diversity, was repeatable when open or enclosed filters with different preservation buffers were used. This research demonstrates that eDNA metabarcoding provides accurate qualitative and quantitative information on fish communities in small ponds, and results are consistent between different methods of DNA capture. This method flexibility will be beneficial for future eDNA-based fish monitoring and their integration into fisheries management.

Invasive non-native species likely to threaten biodiversity and ecosystems in the Antarctic Peninsula region

The Antarctic is considered to be a pristine environment relative to other regions of the Earth, but it is increasingly vulnerable to invasions by marine, freshwater and terrestrial non-native species. The Antarctic Peninsula region (APR), which encompasses the Antarctic Peninsula, South Shetland Islands and South Orkney Islands, is by far the most invaded part of the Antarctica continent. The risk of introduction of invasive non-native species to the APR is likely to increase with predicted increases in the intensity, diversity and distribution of human activities. Parties that are signatories to the Antarctic Treaty have called for regional assessments of non-native species risk. In response, taxonomic and Antarctic experts undertook a horizon scanning exercise using expert opinion and consensus approaches to identify the species that are likely to present the highest risk to biodiversity and ecosystems within the APR over the next 10 years. One hundred and three species, currently absent in the APR, were identified as relevant for review, with 13 species identified as presenting a high risk of invading the APR. Marine invertebrates dominated the list of highest risk species, with flowering plants and terrestrial invertebrates also represented; however, vertebrate species were thought unlikely to establish in the APR within the 10 year timeframe. We recommend (a) the further development and application of biosecurity measures by all stakeholders active in the APR, including surveillance for species such as those identified during this horizon scanning exercise, and (b) use of this methodology across the other regions of Antarctica. Without the application of appropriate biosecurity measures, rates of introductions and invasions within the APR are likely to increase, resulting in negative consequences for the biodiversity of the whole continent, as introduced species establish and spread further due to climate change and increasing human activity.

Effects of size- and sex-selective harvesting: An integral projection model approach

Harvesting is often size-selective, and in species with sexual size dimorphism, it may also be sex-selective. A powerful approach to investigate potential consequences of size- and/or sex-selective harvesting is to simulate it in a demographic population model. We developed a population-based integral projection model for a size- and sex-structured species, the commonly exploited pike (Esox lucius). The model allows reproductive success to be proportional to body size and potentially limited by both sexes. We ran all harvest simulations with both lower size limits and slot limits, and to quantify the effects of selective harvesting, we calculated sex ratios and the long-term population growth rate (λ). In addition, we quantified to what degree purely size-selective harvesting was sex-selective, and determined when λ shifted from being female to male limited under size- and sex-selective harvesting. We found that purely size-selective harvest can be sex-selective, and that it depends on the harvest limits and the size distributions of the sexes. For the size- and sex-selective harvest simulations, λ increased with harvest intensity up to a threshold as females limited reproduction. Beyond this threshold, males became the limiting sex, and λ decreased as more males were harvested. The peak in λ, and the corresponding sex ratio in harvest, varied with both the selectivity and the intensity of the harvest simulation. Our model represents a useful extension of size-structured population models as it includes both sexes, relaxes the assumption of female dominance, and accounts for size-dependent fecundity. The consequences of selective harvesting presented here are especially relevant for size- and sex-structured exploited species, such as commercial fisheries. Thus, our model provides a useful contribution toward the development of more sustainable harvesting regimes.

Assessing the role of bed sediments in the persistence of red mud pollution in a shallow lake (Kinghorn Loch, UK)

Red mud is a by-product of alumina production. Little is known about the long-term fate of red mud constituents in fresh waters or of the processes regulating recovery of fresh waters following pollution control. In 1983, red mud leachate was diverted away from Kinghorn Loch, UK, after many years of polluting this shallow and monomictic lake. We hypothesised that the redox-sensitive constituents of red mud leachate, phosphorus (P), arsenic (As) and vanadium (V), would persist in the Kinghorn Loch for many years following pollution control as a result of cycling between the lake bed sediment and the overlying water column. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a 12-month field campaign in Kinghorn Loch between May 2012 and April 2013 to quantify the seasonal cycling of P, As, and V in relation to environmental conditions (e.g., dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration, pH, redox chemistry and temperature) in the lake surface and bottom waters. To confirm the mechanisms for P, As and V release, a sediment core incubation experiment was conducted using lake sediment sampled in July 2012, in which DO concentrations were manipulated to create either oxic or anoxic conditions similar to the bed conditions found in the lake. The effects on P, As, and V concentrations and species in the water column were measured daily over an eight-day incubation period. Phosphate (PO₄-P) and dissolved As concentrations were significantly higher in the bottom waters (75.9 ± 30.2 μg L^-1 and 23.5 ± 1.83 μg L^-1, respectively) than in the surface waters (12.9 ± 1.50 μg L^-1 and 14.1 ± 2.20 μg L^-1, respectively) in Kinghorn Loch. Sediment release of As and P under anoxic conditions was confirmed by the incubation experiment and by the significant negative correlations between DO and P and As concentrations in the bottom waters of the lake. In contrast, the highest dissolved V concentrations occurred in the bottom waters of Kinghorn Loch under oxic conditions (15.0 ± 3.35 μg L^-1), with the release from the bed sediment apparently being controlled by a combination of competitive ion concentrations, pH and redox conditions.

Assessing the Legacy of Red Mud Pollution in a Shallow Freshwater Lake: Arsenic Accumulation and Speciation in Macrophytes

Little is known about long-term ecological responses in lakes following red mud pollution. Among red mud contaminants, arsenic (As) is of considerable concern. Determination of the species of As accumulated in aquatic organisms provides important information about the biogeochemical cycling of the element and transfer through the aquatic food-web to higher organisms. We used coupled ion chromatography and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) to assess As speciation in tissues of five macrophyte taxa in Kinghorn Loch, U.K., 30 years following the diversion of red mud pollution from the lake. Toxic inorganic As was the dominant species in the studied macrophytes, with As species concentrations varying with macrophyte taxon and tissue type. The highest As content measured in roots of Persicaria amphibia (L.) Gray (87.2 mg kg(-1)) greatly exceeded the 3-10 mg kg(-1) range suggested as a potential phytotoxic level. Accumulation of toxic As species by plants suggested toxicological risk to higher organisms known to utilize macrophytes as a food source.

Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels

Differences in phenological responses to climate change among species can desynchronise ecological interactions and thereby threaten ecosystem function. To assess these threats, we must quantify the relative impact of climate change on species at different trophic levels. Here, we apply a Climate Sensitivity Profile approach to 10,003 terrestrial and aquatic phenological data sets, spatially matched to temperature and precipitation data, to quantify variation in climate sensitivity. The direction, magnitude and timing of climate sensitivity varied markedly among organisms within taxonomic and trophic groups. Despite this variability, we detected systematic variation in the direction and magnitude of phenological climate sensitivity. Secondary consumers showed consistently lower climate sensitivity than other groups. We used mid-century climate change projections to estimate that the timing of phenological events could change more for primary consumers than for species in other trophic levels (6.2 versus 2.5-2.9 days earlier on average), with substantial taxonomic variation (1.1-14.8 days earlier on average).

Eutrophication management in surface waters using lanthanum modified bentonite: A review

This paper reviews the scientific knowledge on the use of a lanthanum modified bentonite (LMB) to manage eutrophication in surface water. The LMB has been applied in around 200 environments worldwide and it has undergone extensive testing at laboratory, mesocosm, and whole lake scales. The available data underline a high efficiency for phosphorus binding. This efficiency can be limited by the presence of humic substances and competing oxyanions. Lanthanum concentrations detected during a LMB application are generally below acute toxicological threshold of different organisms, except in low alkalinity waters. To date there are no indications for long-term negative effects on LMB treated ecosystems, but issues related to La accumulation, increase of suspended solids and drastic resources depletion still need to be explored, in particular for sediment dwelling organisms. Application of LMB in saline waters need a careful risk evaluation due to potential lanthanum release.

Environmental DNA metabarcoding of lake fish communities reflects long-term data from established survey methods

Organisms continuously release DNA into their environments via shed cells, excreta, gametes and decaying material. Analysis of this 'environmental DNA' (eDNA) is revolutionizing biodiversity monitoring. eDNA outperforms many established survey methods for targeted detection of single species, but few studies have investigated how well eDNA reflects whole communities of organisms in natural environments. We investigated whether eDNA can recover accurate qualitative and quantitative information about fish communities in large lakes, by comparison to the most comprehensive long-term gill-net data set available in the UK. Seventy-eight 2L water samples were collected along depth profile transects, gill-net sites and from the shoreline in three large, deep lakes (Windermere, Bassenthwaite Lake and Derwent Water) in the English Lake District. Water samples were assayed by eDNA metabarcoding of the mitochondrial 12S and cytochrome b regions. Fourteen of the 16 species historically recorded in Windermere were detected using eDNA, compared to four species in the most recent gill-net survey, demonstrating eDNA is extremely sensitive for detecting species. A key question for biodiversity monitoring is whether eDNA can accurately estimate abundance. To test this, we used the number of sequence reads per species and the proportion of sampling sites in which a species was detected with eDNA (i.e. site occupancy) as proxies for abundance. eDNA abundance data consistently correlated with rank abundance estimates from established surveys. These results demonstrate that eDNA metabarcoding can describe fish communities in large lakes, both qualitatively and quantitatively, and has great potential as a complementary tool to established monitoring methods.

Fitness consequences of early life conditions and maternal size effects in a freshwater top predator

Conditions experienced in early life stages can be an important determinant of individual life histories. In fish, environmental conditions are known to affect early survival and growth, but recent studies have also emphasized maternal effects mediated by size or age. However, the relative sensitivity of the mean fitness (population growth rate λ) to different early life impacts remains largely unexplored. Using a female-based integral projection model (IPM) parameterized from unique long-term demographic data for pike (Esox lucius), we evaluated the relative fitness consequences of different early life impacts, including (i) maternal effects of length on egg weight, potentially affecting offspring (first year) survival, and (ii) effects of temperature on offspring growth and survival. Of the seven vital rates defining the model, offspring survival could not be directly estimated and four scenarios were defined for this rate. Elasticity analyses of the IPM were performed to calculate (i) the total contribution from different lengths to the elasticity of λ to the projection kernel, and (ii) the elasticity of λ to underlying variables of female current length, female offspring length at age 1, and temperature. These elasticities were decomposed into contributions from different vital rates across length. Egg weight increased with female length, as expected, but the effect leveled off for the largest females. However, λ was largely insensitive to this effect, even when egg weight was assumed to have a strong effect on offspring survival. In contrast, λ was sensitive to early temperature conditions through growth and survival. Among mature females, the total elasticity of λ to the projection kernel generally increased with length. The results were robust to a wide range of assumptions. These results suggest that environmental conditions experienced in early life represent a more important driver of mean population growth and fitness of pike than maternal effects of size on offspring survival. We discuss two general mechanisms underlying the weak influence of this maternal effect, suggesting that these may be general for long-lived and highly fecund fishes. This model and results are relevant for the management of long-lived top predators, including many commercially important fish species.

Inter and intra-population phenotypic and genotypic structuring in the European whitefish Coregonus lavaretus, a rare freshwater fish in Scotland

This study revealed between-lake genetic structuring between Coregonus lavaretus collected from the only two native populations of this species in Scotland, U.K. (Lochs Eck and Lomond) evidenced by the existence of private alleles (12 in Lomond and four in Eck) and significant genetic differentiation (FST = 0·056) across 10 microsatellite markers. Juvenile C. lavaretus originating from eggs collected from the two lakes and reared in a common-garden experiment showed clear phenotypic differences in trophic morphology (i.e. head and body shape) between these populations indicating that these characteristics were, at least partly, inherited. Microsatellite analysis of adults collected from different geographic regions within Loch Lomond revealed detectable and statistically significant but relatively weak genetic structuring (FST = 0·001-0·024) and evidence of private alleles related to the basin structure of the lake. Within-lake genetic divergence patterns suggest three possibilities for this observed pattern: (1) differential selection pressures causing divergence into separate gene pools, (2) a collapse of two formerly divergent gene pools and (3) a stable state maintained by balancing selection forces resulting from spatial variation in selection and lake heterogeneity. Small estimates of effective population sizes for the populations in both lakes suggest that the capacity of both populations to adapt to future environmental change may be limited.

When phenology matters: age-size truncation alters population response to trophic mismatch

Climate-induced shifts in the timing of life-history events are a worldwide phenomenon, and these shifts can de-synchronize species interactions such as predator–prey relationships. In order to understand the ecological implications of altered seasonality, we need to consider how shifts in phenology interact with other agents of environmental change such as exploitation and disease spread, which commonly act to erode the demographic structure of wild populations. Using long-term observational data on the phenology and dynamics of a model predator–prey system (fish and zooplankton in Windermere, UK), we show that age–size truncation of the predator population alters the consequences of phenological mismatch for offspring survival and population abundance. Specifically, age–size truncation reduces intraspecific density regulation due to competition and cannibalism, and thereby amplifies the population sensitivity to climate-induced predator–prey asynchrony, which increases variability in predator abundance. High population variability poses major ecological and economic challenges as it can diminish sustainable harvest rates and increase the risk of population collapse. Our results stress the importance of maintaining within-population age–size diversity in order to buffer populations against phenological asynchrony, and highlight the need to consider interactive effects of environmental impacts if we are to understand and project complex ecological outcomes.

Food web de-synchronization in England's largest lake: an assessment based on multiple phenological metrics

Phenological changes have been observed globally for marine, freshwater and terrestrial species, and are an important element of the global biological 'fingerprint' of climate change. Differences in rates of change could desynchronize seasonal species interactions within a food web, threatening ecosystem functioning. Quantification of this risk is hampered by the rarity of long-term data for multiple interacting species from the same ecosystem and by the diversity of possible phenological metrics, which vary in their ecological relevance to food web interactions. We compare phenological change for phytoplankton (chlorophyll a), zooplankton (Daphnia) and fish (perch, Perca fluviatilis) in two basins of Windermere over 40 years and determine whether change has differed among trophic levels, while explicitly accounting for among-metric differences in rates of change. Though rates of change differed markedly among the nine metrics used, seasonal events shifted earlier for all metrics and trophic levels: zooplankton advanced most, and fish least, rapidly. Evidence of altered synchrony was found in both lake basins, when combining information from all phenological metrics. However, comparisons based on single metrics did not consistently detect this signal. A multimetric approach showed that across trophic levels, earlier phenological events have been associated with increasing water temperature. However, for phytoplankton and zooplankton, phenological change was also associated with changes in resource availability. Lower silicate, and higher phosphorus, concentrations were associated with earlier phytoplankton growth, and earlier phytoplankton growth was associated with earlier zooplankton growth. The developing trophic mismatch detected between the dominant fish species in Windermere and important zooplankton food resources may ultimately affect fish survival and portend significant impacts upon ecosystem functioning. We advocate that future studies on phenological synchrony combine data from multiple phenological metrics, to increase confidence in assessments of change and likely ecological consequences.

Are phenotypic traits useful for differentiating among a priori Coregonus taxa?

A key for three putative species apparently found in three geographic areas, i.e. Coregonus clupeoides (in Scotland), Coregonus stigmaticus (in England), and Coregonus pennantii (in Wales) given in a recent review was tested quantitatively using 544 individuals from nine populations. The classification success of the key was very low (27%). It was concluded that there is currently no robust evidence for the recognition of the three putative species. Furthermore, the use of phenotypic characters alone to distinguish putative species in postglacial fish species such as those of the genus Coregonus that show homoplasy in many of these traits is questioned. In the absence of further evidence, it was concluded that a single highly variable species best describes the pattern of phenotypic variation in these U.K. populations. On this basis it is argued that taxonomic subdivision of U.K. European coregonids is inappropriate and that Coregonus lavaretus should prevail as the species name applicable to all populations.

Pathogen-induced rapid evolution in a vertebrate life-history trait

Anthropogenic factors, including climate warming, are increasing the incidence and prevalence of infectious diseases worldwide. Infectious diseases caused by pathogenic parasites can have severe impacts on host survival, thereby altering the selection regime and inducing evolutionary responses in their hosts. Knowledge about such evolutionary consequences in natural populations is critical to mitigate potential ecological and economic effects. However, studies on pathogen-induced trait changes are scarce and the pace of evolutionary change is largely unknown, particularly in vertebrates. Here, we use a time series from long-term monitoring of perch to estimate temporal trends in the maturation schedule before and after a severe pathogen outbreak. We show that the disease induced a phenotypic change from a previously increasing to a decreasing size at maturation, the most important life-history transition in animals. Evolutionary rates imposed by the pathogen were high and comparable to those reported for populations exposed to intense human harvesting. Pathogens thus represent highly potent drivers of adaptive phenotypic evolution in vertebrates.

Multi-criteria decision analysis of test endpoints for detecting the effects of endocrine active substances in fish full life cycle tests

Fish full life cycle (FFLC) tests are increasingly required in the ecotoxicological assessment of endocrine active substances. However, FFLC tests have not been internationally standardized or validated, and it is currently unclear how such tests should best be designed to provide statistically sound and ecologically relevant results. This study describes how the technique of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) was used to elicit the views of fish ecologists, aquatic ecotoxicologists and statisticians on optimal experimental designs for assessing the effects of endocrine active chemicals on fish. In MCDA qualitative criteria (that can be valued, but not quantified) and quantitative criteria can be used in a structured decision-making process. The aim of the present application of MCDA is to present a logical means of collating both data and expert opinions on the best way to focus FFLC tests on endocrine active substances. The analyses are presented to demonstrate how MCDA can be used in this context. Each of 3 workgroups focused on 1 of 3 species: fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas), Japanese medaka (Oryzias latipes), and zebrafish (Danio rerio). Test endpoints (e.g., fecundity, growth, gonadal histopathology) were scored for each species for various desirable features such as statistical power and ecological relevance, with the importance of these features determined by assigning weights to them, using a swing weighting procedure. The endpoint F1 fertilization success consistently emerged as a preferred option for all species. In addition, some endpoints scored highly in particular species, such as development of secondary sexual characteristics (fathead minnow) and sex ratio (zebrafish). Other endpoints such as hatching success ranked relatively highly and should be considered as useful endpoints to measure in tests with any of the fish species. MCDA also indicated relatively less preferred endpoints in fish life cycle tests. For example, intensive histopathology consistently ranked low, as did measurement of diagnostic biomarkers, such as vitellogenin, most likely due to the high costs of these methods or their limited ecological relevance. Life cycle tests typically do not focus on identifying toxic modes and/or mechanisms of action, but rather, single chemical concentration-response relationships for endpoints (e.g., survival, growth, reproduction) that can be translated into evaluation of risk. It is, therefore, likely to be an inefficient use of limited resources to measure these mechanism-specific endpoints in life cycle tests, unless the value of such endpoints for answering particular questions justifies their integration in specific case studies.

Body downsizing caused by non-consumptive social stress severely depresses population growth rate

Chronic social stress diverts energy away from growth, reproduction and immunity, and is thus a potential driver of population dynamics. However, the effects of social stress on demographic density dependence remain largely overlooked in ecological theory. Here we combine behavioural experiments, physiology and population modelling to show in a top predator (pike Esox lucius) that social stress alone may be a primary driver of demographic density dependence. Doubling pike density in experimental ponds under controlled prey availability did not significantly change prey intake by pike (i.e. did not significantly change interference or exploitative competition), but induced a neuroendocrine stress response reflecting a size-dependent dominance hierarchy, depressed pike energetic status and lowered pike body growth rate by 23 per cent. Assuming fixed size-dependent survival and fecundity functions parameterized for the Windermere (UK) pike population, stress-induced smaller body size shifts age-specific survival rates and lowers age-specific fecundity, which in Leslie matrices projects into reduced population rate of increase (lambda) by 37-56%. Our models also predict that social stress flattens elasticity profiles of lambda to age-specific survival and fecundity, thus making population persistence more dependent on old individuals. Our results suggest that accounting for non-consumptive social stress from competitors and predators is necessary to accurately understand, predict and manage food-web dynamics.

Harvest-induced disruptive selection increases variance in fitness-related traits

The form of Darwinian selection has important ecological and management implications. Negative effects of harvesting are often ascribed to size truncation (i.e. strictly directional selection against large individuals) and resultant decrease in trait variability, which depresses capacity to buffer environmental change, hinders evolutionary rebound and ultimately impairs population recovery. However, the exact form of harvest-induced selection is generally unknown and the effects of harvest on trait variability remain unexplored. Here we use unique data from the Windermere (UK) long-term ecological experiment to show in a top predator (pike, Esox lucius) that the fishery does not induce size truncation but disruptive (diversifying) selection, and does not decrease but rather increases variability in pike somatic growth rate and size at age. This result is supported by complementary modelling approaches removing the effects of catch selectivity, selection prior to the catch and environmental variation. Therefore, fishing most likely increased genetic variability for somatic growth in pike and presumably favoured an observed rapid evolutionary rebound after fishery relaxation. Inference about the mechanisms through which harvesting negatively affects population numbers and recovery should systematically be based on a measure of the exact form of selection. From a management perspective, disruptive harvesting necessitates combining a preservation of large individuals with moderate exploitation rates, and thus provides a comprehensive tool for sustainable exploitation of natural resources.

Investigation of first year biotic and abiotic influences on the recruitment of pike Esox lucius over 48 years in Windermere, UK

Estimated pike Esox lucius recruitment varied by a factor of 16 for females from 1944 to 1991 and by a factor of 27 for males from 1943 to 1990 in Windermere, a temperate, mesotrophic U.K. lake. No significant stock-recruitment relationships were found, but analysis with general additive models (GAMs) revealed that early autumnal water temperature, strength and direction of the North Atlantic Oscillation displacement (corresponding to different climatic conditions in winter) and zooplankton abundance but above all, late summer water temperature were important explanatory variables over the entire time series. Female recruitment was also influenced by young-of-the-year winter temperature. There was no evidence that perch Perca fluviatilis year-class strength, lake level or the summer position of the Gulf Stream influenced recruitment. The fitted models explained up to c. 65% of the overall observed variation between years.

Trait changes in a harvested population are driven by a dynamic tug-of-war between natural and harvest selection

Selective harvest of large individuals should alter natural adaptive landscapes and drive evolution toward reduced somatic growth and increased reproductive investment. However, few studies have simultaneously considered the relative importance of artificial and natural selection in driving trait changes in wild populations. Using 50 years of individual-based data on Windermere pike (Esox lucius), we show that trait changes tracked the adaptive peak, which moved in the direction imposed by the dominating selective force. Individual lifetime somatic growth decreased at the start of the time series because harvest selection was strong and natural selection was too weak to override the strength of harvest selection. However, natural selection favoring fast somatic growth strengthened across the time series in parallel with the increase in pike abundance and, presumably, cannibalism. Harvest selection was overridden by natural selection when the fishing effort dwindled, triggering a rapid increase in pike somatic growth. The two selective forces appear to have acted in concert during only one short period of prey collapse that favored slow-growing pike. Moreover, increased somatic growth occurred concurrently with a reduction in reproductive investment in young and small female pike, indicating a tradeoff between growth and reproduction. The age-specific amplitude of this change paralleled the age-specific strength of harvest pressure, suggesting that reduced investment was also a response to increased life expectancy. This is the first study to demonstrate that a consideration of both natural selection and artificial selection is needed to fully explain time-varying trait dynamics in harvested populations.

Four decades of opposing natural and human-induced artificial selection acting on Windermere pike (Esox lucius)

The ability of natural selection to drive local adaptation has been appreciated ever since Darwin. Whether human impacts can impede the adaptive process has received less attention. We tested this hypothesis by quantifying natural selection and harvest selection acting on a freshwater fish (pike) over four decades. Across the time series, directional natural selection tended to favour large individuals whereas the fishery targeted large individuals. Moreover, non-linear natural selection tended to favour intermediate sized fish whereas the fishery targeted intermediate sized fish because the smallest and largest individuals were often not captured. Thus, our results unequivocally demonstrate that natural selection and fishery selection often acted in opposite directions within this natural system. Moreover, the two selective factors combined to produce reduced fitness overall and stronger stabilizing selection relative to natural selection acting alone. The long-term ramifications of such human-induced modifications to adaptive landscapes are currently unknown and certainly warrant further investigation.

The ideal free pike: 50 years of fitness-maximizing dispersal in Windermere

The ideal free distribution (IFD) theory is one of the most influential theories in evolutionary ecology. It predicts how animals ought to distribute themselves within a heterogeneous habitat in order to maximize lifetime fitness. We test the population level consequence of the IFD theory using 40-year worth data on pike (Esox lucius) living in a natural lake divided into two basins. We do so by employing empirically derived density-dependent survival, dispersal and fecundity functions in the estimation of basin-specific density-dependent fitness surfaces. The intersection of the fitness surfaces for the two basins is used for deriving expected spatial distributions of pike. Comparing the derived expected spatial distributions with 50 years data of the actual spatial distribution demonstrated that pike is ideal free distributed within the lake. In general, there was a net migration from the less productive north basin to the more productive south basin. However, a pike density-manipulation experiment imposing shifting pike density gradients between the two basins managed to switch the net migration direction and hence clearly demonstrated that the Windermere pike choose their habitat in an ideal free manner. Demonstration of ideal free habitat selection on an operational field scale like this has never been undertaken before.