Estimating global economic well-being with unlit settlements

It is well established that nighttime radiance, measured from satellites, correlates with economic prosperity across the globe. In developing countries, areas with low levels of detected radiance generally indicate limited development - with unlit areas typically being disregarded. Here we combine satellite nighttime lights and the world settlement footprint for the year 2015 to show that 19% of the total settlement footprint of the planet had no detectable artificial radiance associated with it. The majority of unlit settlement footprints are found in Africa (39%), rising to 65% if we consider only rural settlement areas, along with numerous countries in the Middle East and Asia. Significant areas of unlit settlements are also located in some developed countries. For 49 countries spread across Africa, Asia and the Americas we are able to predict and map the wealth class obtained from ~2,400,000 geo-located households based upon the percent of unlit settlements, with an overall accuracy of 87%.

Estimating the global distribution of field size using crowdsourcing

There is an increasing evidence that smallholder farms contribute substantially to food production globally, yet spatially explicit data on agricultural field sizes are currently lacking. Automated field size delineation using remote sensing or the estimation of average farm size at subnational level using census data are two approaches that have been used. However, both have limitations, for example, automatic field size delineation using remote sensing has not yet been implemented at a global scale while the spatial resolution is very coarse when using census data. This paper demonstrates a unique approach to quantifying and mapping agricultural field size globally using crowdsourcing. A campaign was run in June 2017, where participants were asked to visually interpret very high resolution satellite imagery from Google Maps and Bing using the Geo-Wiki application. During the campaign, participants collected field size data for 130 K unique locations around the globe. Using this sample, we have produced the most accurate global field size map to date and estimated the percentage of different field sizes, ranging from very small to very large, in agricultural areas at global, continental, and national levels. The results show that smallholder farms occupy up to 40% of agricultural areas globally, which means that, potentially, there are many more smallholder farms in comparison with the two different current global estimates of 12% and 24%. The global field size map and the crowdsourced data set are openly available and can be used for integrated assessment modeling, comparative studies of agricultural dynamics across different contexts, for training and validation of remote sensing field size delineation, and potential contributions to the Sustainable Development Goal of Ending hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture.

A global reference database of crowdsourced cropland data collected using the Geo-Wiki platform

A global reference data set on cropland was collected through a crowdsourcing campaign using the Geo-Wiki crowdsourcing tool. The campaign lasted three weeks, with over 80 participants from around the world reviewing almost 36,000 sample units, focussing on cropland identification. For quality assessment purposes, two additional data sets are provided. The first is a control set of 1,793 sample locations validated by students trained in satellite image interpretation. This data set was used to assess the quality of the crowd as the campaign progressed. The second data set contains 60 expert validations for additional evaluation of the quality of the contributions. All data sets are split into two parts: the first part shows all areas classified as cropland and the second part shows cropland average per location and user. After further processing, the data presented here might be suitable to validate and compare medium and high resolution cropland maps generated using remote sensing. These could also be used to train classification algorithms for developing new maps of land cover and cropland extent.

The presence of vesicoureteric reflux does not identify a population at risk for renal scarring following a first urinary tract infection

BACKGROUND

Childhood urinary tract infection (UTI) with or without vesicoureteric reflux (VUR) may predispose to renal scarring. There is no clear consensus in the literature regarding imaging following UTI in infancy.

AIMS

To define the role of cystography following a first UTI in children aged under 1 year, when urinary tract ultrasonography (US) is normal.

METHODS

Retrospective data collection of 108 children (216 renal units) aged under 1 year at the time of a bacteriologically proven UTI. All had a normal US and underwent both catheter cystogram and DMSA test. Sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios positive and negative, and diagnostic odds ratio were calculated for VUR on cystography versus scarring on DMSA.

RESULTS

VUR was shown in 25 (11.6%) renal units. Scarring on DMSA was seen in 8 (3.7 %) kidneys. Only 16% of kidneys with VUR had associated scarring; 50% of scarred kidneys were not associated with VUR. The likelihood ratio positive was 4.95 (95% CI 2.22 to 11.05) and the likelihood ratio negative was 0.56 (95% CI 0.28 to 1.11). The diagnostic odds ratio was 8.9, suggesting that cystography provided little additional information.

CONCLUSION

Since only 16% of children with VUR had an abnormal kidney, the presence of VUR does not identify a susceptible population with an abnormal kidney on DMSA. In the context of a normal ultrasound examination, cystography contributes little to the management of children under the age of 1 year with a UTI. In this context, a normal DMSA study reinforces the redundancy of cystography.

Antenatal Hydronephrosis: Negative Predictive Value of Normal Postnatal Ultrasound—a 5-year Study

AIM

To determine whether normal postnatal ultrasound, as part of a strict screening protocol for the detection and follow-up of antenatal hydronephrosis, effectively excludes the majority of babies with congenital urinary tract abnormalities that would otherwise present with a urinary tract infection.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed all babies who had postnatal follow-up of antenatally detected hydronephrosis over a 5-year period at our institution, a district general Trust with a specialist paediatric unit. We then studied all babies presenting with urinary tract infection before their first birthday to our institution over the same period. By cross-referencing these two study groups we were able to determine which babies developed a urinary tract infection having been previously discharged after normal postnatal ultrasound.

RESULTS

Four hundred and twenty-five babies had postnatal follow-up of antenatal hydronephrosis. Of these, 284 were investigated with ultrasound alone. In the same 5-year period, 230 babies presented with urinary tract infection before their first birthday. Only three of these babies had been previously discharged after normal postnatal ultrasound. The negative predictive value of a normal postnatal ultrasound was therefore 98.9% (281/284) for babies who subsequently presented with a urinary tract infection before their first birthday.

CONCLUSION

Careful antenatal and postnatal ultrasound with strict protocols is effective in detecting congenital renal tract abnormalities. Infants discharged after normal postnatal ultrasound are highly unlikely to still have an undetected urinary tract abnormality. We suggest that all babies with antenatal hydronephrosis are started on prophylactic antibiotics at birth, pending further investigation. All babies without features of severe obstruction antenatally should have their postnatal ultrasound delayed for a month. We recommend selective use of micturating cystourethrogram (MCUG), and delaying this investigation until the baby is 3 to 4 months old to allow for spontaneous resolution of vesicoureteric reflux. We do not believe that all babies with antenatal hydronephrosis require MCUG, providing a clear protocol is followed.