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Sarker M, Hossain P, Ahmed ST, Barua M, Sutradhar I, Ahmed SM. A critical look at synergies and fragmentations of universal health coverage, global health security, and health promotion in delivery of frontline health care services: A case study of Bangladesh. Lancet Reg Health Southeast Asia 2022; 7:100087. [PMID: 37383936 PMCID: PMC10305878 DOI: 10.1016/j.lansea.2022.100087] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/30/2023]
Abstract
Universal Health Coverage (UHC) and Global Health Security (GHS) activities encompass mitigation of risks to health and well-being rights posed by infectious disease outbreaks and facilitated by health promotion (HP) activities. This case study investigated Bangladesh's readiness and capacity to 'prevent, detect and respond' to such outbreaks of an epidemic/pandemic nature. A rapid review of relevant documents, key informant interviews with policymakers/practitioners, and a deliberative dialogue with a crisscross of stakeholders were used to identify challenges and opportunities for 'synergy' among these streams of activities. Findings reveal conceptual ambiguity among respondents about the scope of the three `agendas and their inter-linkages. They perceived the synergy between UHC and GHS superfluous and were obsessed with losing their respective constituencies and resources. Poor coordination among the focal agencies in field activities, lack of supporting infrastructure, and shortage of human and financial resources posed additional challenges for better pandemic/epidemic preparation in future. Funding This study, "Researching the UHC-GHS-HP Triangle in Bangladesh," was funded by the Wellcome Trust, UK.
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Affiliation(s)
- Malabika Sarker
- BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, Dhaka, Bangladesh
- Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University, Germany
| | - Puspita Hossain
- BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, Dhaka, Bangladesh
- Health Research Methods, Evidence, and Impact, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
| | - Syeda Tahmina Ahmed
- BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Mrittika Barua
- BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Ipsita Sutradhar
- BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Syed Masud Ahmed
- BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, Dhaka, Bangladesh
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Sultana J, Sutradhar I, Rahman MJ, Khan ANS, Chowdhury MAK, Hasib E, Chhetri C, Mahmud SMH, Kashem T, Kumar S, Myint ZT, Rahman M, Huda TMN, Arifeen SE, Billah SM. An Uninformed Decision-Making Process for Cesarean Section: A Qualitative Exploratory Study among the Slum Residents of Dhaka City, Bangladesh. Int J Environ Res Public Health 2022; 19:ijerph19031465. [PMID: 35162487 PMCID: PMC8835678 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph19031465] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/06/2021] [Revised: 01/06/2022] [Accepted: 01/22/2022] [Indexed: 01/27/2023]
Abstract
The decision-making process and the information flow from physicians to patients regarding deliveries through cesarean section (C-section) has not been adequately explored in Bangladeshi context. Here, we aimed to explore the extent of information received by mothers and their family members and their involvement in the decision-making process. We conducted a qualitative exploratory study in four urban slums of Dhaka city among purposively selected mothers (n = 7), who had a cesarean birth within one-year preceding data collection, and their family members (n = 12). In most cases, physicians were the primary decision-makers for C-sections. At the household level, pregnant women were excluded from some crucial steps of the decision-making process and information asymmetry was prevalent. All interviewed pregnant women attended at least one antenatal care visit; however, they neither received detailed information regarding C-sections nor attended any counseling session regarding decisions around delivery type. In some cases, pregnant women and their family members did not ask health care providers for detailed information about C-sections. Most seemed to perceive C-sections as risk-free procedures. Future research could explore the best ways to provide C-section-related information to pregnant women during the antenatal period and develop interventions to promote shared decision-making for C-sections in urban Bangladeshi slums.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jesmin Sultana
- Infectious Diseases Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b), Mohakhali, Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh; (M.R.); (T.M.N.H.)
- Correspondence: ; Tel.: +880-1717-997-182
| | - Ipsita Sutradhar
- BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, Dhaka 1213, Bangladesh; (I.S.); (M.A.K.C.)
| | - Musarrat Jabeen Rahman
- International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 615 N Wolfe St Suite E8527, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA;
| | - Abdullah Nurus Salam Khan
- Maternal and Child Health Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b), Mohakhali, Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh; (A.N.S.K.); (S.E.A.); (S.M.B.)
| | | | - Enam Hasib
- Family Health International, Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh;
| | | | - S. M. Hasan Mahmud
- Bangladesh National Nutrition Council, Mohakhali, Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh;
| | - Tahsin Kashem
- Bangladesh Palliative and Supportive Care Foundation, Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh;
| | - Sanjeev Kumar
- Health Systems Transformation Platform, New Delhi 110070, India;
| | - Zaw Toe Myint
- Health Systems Strengthening, Community Partners International, Yangon 11201, Myanmar;
| | - Mahbubur Rahman
- Infectious Diseases Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b), Mohakhali, Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh; (M.R.); (T.M.N.H.)
| | - Tarique Md. Nurul Huda
- Infectious Diseases Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b), Mohakhali, Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh; (M.R.); (T.M.N.H.)
| | - Shams El Arifeen
- Maternal and Child Health Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b), Mohakhali, Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh; (A.N.S.K.); (S.E.A.); (S.M.B.)
| | - Sk Masum Billah
- Maternal and Child Health Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b), Mohakhali, Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh; (A.N.S.K.); (S.E.A.); (S.M.B.)
- Sydney School of Public Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia
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Sutradhar I, Ikpeme M, Weldegiorgis M, Hasan M, Mridha MK, Sarker M, Gregg E. Prevalence and control status of T2DM in Bangladesh: finding from a nationally representative survey. Eur J Public Health 2021. [DOI: 10.1093/eurpub/ckab164.262] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Abstract
Background
With around 10 million diagnosed patients, Bangladesh remains at the forefront of the global type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) epidemic. A comprehensive understanding of the current T2DM scenario is required to curb the disease burden. In this study, we aimed to identify the prevalence, associated factors, and control status of T2DM in Bangladesh.
Methods
This cross-sectional survey was conducted in 15 randomly selected community-based clusters in Bangladesh. Around 1,000 adults aged ≥18 years from each cluster were selected. Face-to-face interviews, anthropometric measurement, biospecimen collection, and point of care blood test were performed. Individuals with Fasting Blood Sugar (FBS) ≥126 mg/dl or previously diagnosed with T2DM by a qualified health provider were considered T2DM cases. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify factors associated with T2DM.
Results
Data of 13,674 individuals were analysed for this study. The overall prevalence of T2DM was 10.0%, among whom 29.2% were undiagnosed. Among previously diagnosed patients, 64.9% had uncontrolled diabetes (FBS≥126 mg/dl). The prevalence of uncontrolled diabetes was higher among elderly, female, and urban participants. Patients with hypertension, high waist-hip ratio and high serum cholesterol had 2.20 times (95% CI: 2.17-2.23, p < 0.001), 3.53 times (95% CI: 3.47-3.59, p < 0.001) and 2.53 times (95% CI: 2.48-2.59, p < 0.001) higher odds of having T2DM, respectively.
Conclusions
One out of every ten adults in Bangladesh had T2DM, and a substantial proportion of them had undiagnosed and uncontrolled diabetes. This finding indicates the lack of preparedness of the country's health system to address the problem. Pertinent stakeholders should adopt a multi-sectoral approach to develop comprehensive policies and implement target-specific interventions, e.g., population-based screening program, primary care based T2DM service, and community mobilisation to combat the T2DM epidemic.
Key messages
As the T2DM burden is high in Bangladesh, policy makers should adopt a collaborative approach to develop and implement effective public health programs for prevention and control of T2DM. As the burden of uncontrolled T2DM is high in Bangladesh, the country’s health system should ensure early diagnosis and provision of quality care at affordable cost for T2DM patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- I Sutradhar
- BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - M Ikpeme
- School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - M Weldegiorgis
- School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - M Hasan
- BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - MK Mridha
- BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - M Sarker
- BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - E Gregg
- School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
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Mehjabeen S, Matin M, Gupta RD, Sutradhar I, Mazumder Y, Kim M, Sharmin S, Islam J, Sarker M. Fidelity of kangaroo mother care services in the public health facilities in Bangladesh: a cross-sectional mixed-method study. Implement Sci Commun 2021; 2:115. [PMID: 34625121 PMCID: PMC8501568 DOI: 10.1186/s43058-021-00215-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/11/2021] [Accepted: 09/15/2021] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Kangaroo mother care (KMC) is a proven low-cost intervention to prevent neonatal mortality of pre-term and low birth weight babies and is very relevant to Bangladesh. KMC provides thermal regulation and thus directly avert neonatal mortality. KMC includes early, continuous, and prolonged skin-to-skin contact between an infant and caregiver, exclusive breastfeeding, early discharge from the hospital, and post-discharge follow-up. The purpose of this study was to investigate the fidelity of this intervention’s implementation according to national guidelines across all tiers of government (public) health facilities of Bangladesh. Methods We adopted a triangulation mixed-methods approach of both quantitative and qualitative components in this research to support and explain the information obtained from quantitative observation with the help of qualitative interviews on the fidelity of KMC practice. We used an observation checklist to find the fidelity of KMC practice and used semi-structured guidelines to explain and understand the moderators of fidelity through key informant interviews and in-depth interviews. We undertook eight facility visits in four districts, observed twenty-three neonates and their caregivers during KMC practice at those facilities, and conducted twenty-seven key informant interviews with facility managers, health care providers, and five in-depth interviews with caregivers. Extracted information was triangulated and arranged under the themes of the fidelity framework. Results Despite being a low-cost intervention, findings exhibit some adherence to the national guideline with several gaps in practice. Leadership played a critical role in ensuring the KMC practice. Specific components of KMC practice, like duration, nutrition maintenance, discharge criteria, and follow-up, were not consistent as recommended. Infrastructure, human resources, developmental partner support, and the demand-side and supply-side responsiveness played a critical role in enacting this human-centric approach’s fidelity. The observed interruption found in the implementation process posed threats to achieve the intended outcome as these caused violations of the basic principles of KMC. Conclusions The study findings will help find ways to effectively deliver this intervention so that fidelity of practice is maintained, enhancing KMC services’ quality and advocating towards the successful scale-up of this program. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s43058-021-00215-9.
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Affiliation(s)
- Saima Mehjabeen
- Center of Excellence for Science of Implementation & Scale-Up (CoE-SISU), BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Mowtushi Matin
- Center of Excellence for Science of Implementation & Scale-Up (CoE-SISU), BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Rajat Das Gupta
- Center of Excellence for Science of Implementation & Scale-Up (CoE-SISU), BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, Dhaka, Bangladesh.,University of South Carolina, Columbia, USA
| | - Ipsita Sutradhar
- Center of Excellence for Science of Implementation & Scale-Up (CoE-SISU), BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Yameen Mazumder
- Center of Excellence for Science of Implementation & Scale-Up (CoE-SISU), BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Minjoon Kim
- Health Section, United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Shamina Sharmin
- Health Section, United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Jahurul Islam
- MNCAH, Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS), Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Malabika Sarker
- Center of Excellence for Science of Implementation & Scale-Up (CoE-SISU), BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, Dhaka, Bangladesh. .,Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany.
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Hasan M, Khan MSA, Sutradhar I, Hossain MM, Hossaine M, Yoshimura Y, Choudhury SR, Sarker M, Mridha MK. Prevalence and associated factors of hypertension in selected urban and rural areas of Dhaka, Bangladesh: findings from SHASTO baseline survey. BMJ Open 2021; 11:e038975. [PMID: 33472770 PMCID: PMC7818822 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-038975] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/28/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE We implemented this study to report the prevalence and associated risk factors of hypertension among adult men and women aged >30 years residing in selected urban and rural areas of Dhaka division, Bangladesh. DESIGN Cross-sectional study. SETTING Two urban (Dhaka city north and Dhaka city south) and two rural (Narsinghdi and Gazipur district) areas of the Dhaka division. PARTICIPANTS A total of 4856 male and female participants were included in the final analysis, of whom 2340 (48.2%) were from urban and 2516 (51.8%) were from rural areas. PRIMARY OUTCOME Hypertension was the dependent variable for this study and was operationally defined as systolic blood pressure >140 mm of Hg and/or diastolic blood pressure >90 mm of Hg, and/or persons with already diagnosed hypertension. RESULTS The overall prevalence of hypertension was 31.0%, and the prevalence was higher among urban participants (urban: 36.9%, rural: 30.6%). Age (across all categories), female (urban-adjusted OR (AOR): 1.3, 95% CI: 1.0 to 1.5 and rural-AOR: 1.7, 95% CI: 1.4 to 2.1)), higher educational status (urban-AOR: 1.7, 95% CI: 1.3 to 2.2 and rural-AOR: 2.1, 95% CI: 1.5 to 3.1), inadequate physical activity (urban-AOR: 1.3, 95% CI: 1.0 to 1.7 and rural-AOR: 1.5, 95% CI: 1.2 to 1.9) and overweight/obesity (urban-AOR: 2.7, 95% CI: 2.1 to 3.3 and rural-AOR: 2.1, 95% CI: 1.7 to 2.5) were associated with hypertension in both urban and rural areas. Women who were not currently married during the survey had higher odds of hypertension only in the rural areas (rural-AOR: 1.8, 95% CI: 1.3 to 2.4), and respondents who were not working during the survey had higher odds of hypertension only in the urban areas (AOR: 1.7, 95% CI: 1.0 to 2.6). CONCLUSION Since the prevalence of hypertension was high in urban and rural areas, the government of Bangladesh should consider implementing hypertension prevention programmes focusing young population of Dhaka division. In addition, early screening programmes and management of hypertension need to be strengthened for people with hypertension in both the areas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mehedi Hasan
- Centre for Non-communicable Diseases and Nutrition, BRAC University James P Grant School of Public Health, Dhaka, Dhaka District, Bangladesh
| | - Md Showkat Ali Khan
- Centre for Non-communicable Diseases and Nutrition, BRAC University James P Grant School of Public Health, Dhaka, Dhaka District, Bangladesh
| | - Ipsita Sutradhar
- Centre for Science of Implementation and Scale-up, BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, Dhaka, Dhaka District, Bangladesh
| | - Md Mokbul Hossain
- Centre for Non-communicable Diseases and Nutrition, BRAC University James P Grant School of Public Health, Dhaka, Dhaka District, Bangladesh
| | - Moyazzam Hossaine
- Centre for Non-communicable Diseases and Nutrition, BRAC University James P Grant School of Public Health, Dhaka, Dhaka District, Bangladesh
| | - Yukie Yoshimura
- Japan International Cooperation Agency, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Sohel Reza Choudhury
- Department of Epidemiology and Research, National Heart Foundation Hospital and Research Institute, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Malabika Sarker
- Centre for Science of Implementation and Scale-up, BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, Dhaka, Dhaka District, Bangladesh
| | - Malay Kanti Mridha
- Centre for Non-communicable Diseases and Nutrition, BRAC University James P Grant School of Public Health, Dhaka, Dhaka District, Bangladesh
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Das Gupta R, Jahan M, Hasan M, Sutradhar I, Sajal IH, Haider SS, Joshi H, Haider MR, Sarker M. Factors associated with tobacco use among Nepalese men aged 15–49 years: Data from Nepal demographic and Health Survey 2016. Clinical Epidemiology and Global Health 2020. [DOI: 10.1016/j.cegh.2020.01.014] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
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Abstract
The Rohingya refugee crisis is neither new nor a sudden problem for Bangladesh. However, the recent violence in August 2017 instigated the migration of 6,93,000 additional Rohingyas into Bangladesh and as of June 2018, around one million Rohingya refugees were residing in Bangladesh. Against this backdrop, it is important to know their current health status because, without this information, equal and equitable health service provision is not possible. So, we conducted this review to understand the current health status of the Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh. For this purpose, a systematic literature search was conducted in July 2018 using transparent selection criteria and the keywords "Rohingya", "Health", Bangladesh". After screening the title and abstract and removing duplication, 12 articles and 21 organizational reports were found eligible for final review. Major health problems prevailing among Rohingya refugees are unexplained fever, acute respiratory infection, and diarrhea. Non-communicable diseases like hypertension, diabetes, and their risk factors are also highly prevalent among these people. More than half of the Rohingya refugees are women and many of them experience sexual abuse or exploitation. More than 50,000 Rohingya refugee women were pregnant, however, a significant portion of pregnant women did not have access to quality antenatal care. Mental health problems like post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression, and suicidal thoughts were also commonly prevailing in the Rohingya community.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Ipsita Sutradhar
- Epidemiology and Public Health, BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, Dhaka, BGD
| | - Md Imran Hasan
- National Consultant, Institute of Public Health Nutrition, Dhaka, BGD
| | - Md Mafizul I Bulbul
- Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, National Nutrition Services, Dhaka, BGD
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Alam W, Nujhat S, Parajuli A, Banyira L, Mohsen WAM, Sutradhar I, Gupta RD, Hasan M, Mridha MK. Readiness of primary health-care facilities for the management of non-communicable diseases in rural Bangladesh: a mixed methods study. The Lancet Global Health 2020. [DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(20)30158-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
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Nujhat S, Alam W, Parajuli A, Mohsen WAM, Banyira L, Gupta RD, Sutradhar I, Hasan M, Mridha MK. Prevalence of risk factors for non-communicable diseases in a rural population of Bangladesh: a cross-sectional study. Lancet Glob Health 2020. [DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(20)30162-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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Bikbov B, Purcell CA, Levey AS, Smith M, Abdoli A, Abebe M, Adebayo OM, Afarideh M, Agarwal SK, Agudelo-Botero M, Ahmadian E, Al-Aly Z, Alipour V, Almasi-Hashiani A, Al-Raddadi RM, Alvis-Guzman N, Amini S, Andrei T, Andrei CL, Andualem Z, Anjomshoa M, Arabloo J, Ashagre AF, Asmelash D, Ataro Z, Atout MMW, Ayanore MA, Badawi A, Bakhtiari A, Ballew SH, Balouchi A, Banach M, Barquera S, Basu S, Bayih MT, Bedi N, Bello AK, Bensenor IM, Bijani A, Boloor A, Borzì AM, Cámera LA, Carrero JJ, Carvalho F, Castro F, Catalá-López F, Chang AR, Chin KL, Chung SC, Cirillo M, Cousin E, Dandona L, Dandona R, Daryani A, Das Gupta R, Demeke FM, Demoz GT, Desta DM, Do HP, Duncan BB, Eftekhari A, Esteghamati A, Fatima SS, Fernandes JC, Fernandes E, Fischer F, Freitas M, Gad MM, Gebremeskel GG, Gebresillassie BM, Geta B, Ghafourifard M, Ghajar A, Ghith N, Gill PS, Ginawi IA, Gupta R, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haj-Mirzaian A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hariyani N, Hasan M, Hasankhani M, Hasanzadeh A, Hassen HY, Hay SI, Heidari B, Herteliu C, Hoang CL, Hosseini M, Hostiuc M, Irvani SSN, Islam SMS, Jafari Balalami N, James SL, Jassal SK, Jha V, Jonas JB, Joukar F, Jozwiak JJ, Kabir A, Kahsay A, Kasaeian A, Kassa TD, Kassaye HG, Khader YS, Khalilov R, Khan EA, Khan MS, Khang YH, Kisa A, Kovesdy CP, Kuate Defo B, Kumar GA, Larsson AO, Lim LL, Lopez AD, Lotufo PA, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, März W, Masaka A, Meheretu HAA, Miazgowski T, Mirica A, Mirrakhimov EM, Mithra P, Moazen B, Mohammad DK, Mohammadpourhodki R, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Morales L, Moreno Velasquez I, Mousavi SM, Mukhopadhyay S, Nachega JB, Nadkarni GN, Nansseu JR, Natarajan G, Nazari J, Neal B, Negoi RI, Nguyen CT, Nikbakhsh R, Noubiap JJ, Nowak C, Olagunju AT, Ortiz A, Owolabi MO, Palladino R, Pathak M, Poustchi H, Prakash S, Prasad N, Rafiei A, Raju SB, Ramezanzadeh K, Rawaf S, Rawaf DL, Rawal L, Reiner RC, Rezapour A, Ribeiro DC, Roever L, Rothenbacher D, Rwegerera GM, Saadatagah S, Safari S, Sahle BW, Salem H, Sanabria J, Santos IS, Sarveazad A, Sawhney M, Schaeffner E, Schmidt MI, Schutte AE, Sepanlou SG, Shaikh MA, Sharafi Z, Sharif M, Sharifi A, Silva DAS, Singh JA, Singh NP, Sisay MMM, Soheili A, Sutradhar I, Teklehaimanot BF, Tesfay BE, Teshome GF, Thakur JS, Tonelli M, Tran KB, Tran BX, Tran Ngoc C, Ullah I, Valdez PR, Varughese S, Vos T, Vu LG, Waheed Y, Werdecker A, Wolde HF, Wondmieneh AB, Wulf Hanson S, Yamada T, Yeshaw Y, Yonemoto N, Yusefzadeh H, Zaidi Z, Zaki L, Zaman SB, Zamora N, Zarghi A, Zewdie KA, Ärnlöv J, Coresh J, Perico N, Remuzzi G, Murray CJL, Vos T. Global, regional, and national burden of chronic kidney disease, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2020; 395:709-733. [PMID: 32061315 PMCID: PMC7049905 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30045-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2567] [Impact Index Per Article: 641.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/31/2019] [Revised: 09/16/2019] [Accepted: 01/06/2020] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Health system planning requires careful assessment of chronic kidney disease (CKD) epidemiology, but data for morbidity and mortality of this disease are scarce or non-existent in many countries. We estimated the global, regional, and national burden of CKD, as well as the burden of cardiovascular disease and gout attributable to impaired kidney function, for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017. We use the term CKD to refer to the morbidity and mortality that can be directly attributed to all stages of CKD, and we use the term impaired kidney function to refer to the additional risk of CKD from cardiovascular disease and gout. METHODS The main data sources we used were published literature, vital registration systems, end-stage kidney disease registries, and household surveys. Estimates of CKD burden were produced using a Cause of Death Ensemble model and a Bayesian meta-regression analytical tool, and included incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, mortality, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). A comparative risk assessment approach was used to estimate the proportion of cardiovascular diseases and gout burden attributable to impaired kidney function. FINDINGS Globally, in 2017, 1·2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·2 to 1·3) people died from CKD. The global all-age mortality rate from CKD increased 41·5% (95% UI 35·2 to 46·5) between 1990 and 2017, although there was no significant change in the age-standardised mortality rate (2·8%, -1·5 to 6·3). In 2017, 697·5 million (95% UI 649·2 to 752·0) cases of all-stage CKD were recorded, for a global prevalence of 9·1% (8·5 to 9·8). The global all-age prevalence of CKD increased 29·3% (95% UI 26·4 to 32·6) since 1990, whereas the age-standardised prevalence remained stable (1·2%, -1·1 to 3·5). CKD resulted in 35·8 million (95% UI 33·7 to 38·0) DALYs in 2017, with diabetic nephropathy accounting for almost a third of DALYs. Most of the burden of CKD was concentrated in the three lowest quintiles of Socio-demographic Index (SDI). In several regions, particularly Oceania, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America, the burden of CKD was much higher than expected for the level of development, whereas the disease burden in western, eastern, and central sub-Saharan Africa, east Asia, south Asia, central and eastern Europe, Australasia, and western Europe was lower than expected. 1·4 million (95% UI 1·2 to 1·6) cardiovascular disease-related deaths and 25·3 million (22·2 to 28·9) cardiovascular disease DALYs were attributable to impaired kidney function. INTERPRETATION Kidney disease has a major effect on global health, both as a direct cause of global morbidity and mortality and as an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease. CKD is largely preventable and treatable and deserves greater attention in global health policy decision making, particularly in locations with low and middle SDI. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Das Gupta R, Haider SS, Sutradhar I, Hashan MR, Sajal IH, Hasan M, Haider MR, Sarker M. Association of frequency of television watching with overweight and obesity among women of reproductive age in India: Evidence from a nationally representative study. PLoS One 2019; 14:e0221758. [PMID: 31465465 PMCID: PMC6715273 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0221758] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/08/2019] [Accepted: 08/14/2019] [Indexed: 01/22/2023] Open
Abstract
Background For women of reproductive age, overweight and obesity are an established risk factor for several medical complications. To address the increasing rate of obesity in India through public health awareness programs, the association between common behaviors and overweight and obesity needs to be investigated. This study aims to determine whether there is any association between the frequency of television watching and overweight and obesity among women of reproductive age (15–49 years) in India. Methods This is a cross-sectional study that utilized data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-4), which utilized a nationally representative sample from all 29 states and 7 union territories of India. The survey itself followed a two-staged stratified random sampling technique. The primary outcome of interest was overweight (23.0 kg/m2 to <27.5 kg/m2) and obesity (≥27.5 kg/m2), measured by using the Asian body mass index cut-off. The major explanatory variable was the frequency of television watching, measured in days per week. Sample weight of NFHS-4 was adjusted during the analysis. Multilevel ordered logistic regression was conducted to identify the factors associated with overweight and obesity. To show the strength of association, both the unadjusted Crude Odds Ratio (COR) and the Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) were reported with a 95% confidence interval (CI). A p-value<0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results The analysis included weighted data from 644,006 Indian women of reproductive age (15–49 years). Among the respondents, 33.5% were overweight or obese (BMI ≥23.0 kg/m2). The prevalence of overweight and obesity increased with age (p-value <0.0001) and almost half of the women aged 35–49 years were either overweight or obese (48.6%). The prevalence was significantly higher among those living in an urban area compared to a rural area (urban 46.5% vs. rural 26.5%; p-value <0.001). The prevalence of overweight and obesity increased with the frequency of watching television and was the highest among the individuals who reported watching television almost every day (p-value <0.0001). Women watching television almost every day had 24% (AOR: 1.24, 95% CI: 1.21–1.26; p-value <0.001) increased odds of being overweight and obese compared to their counterparts who never watched television. Conclusions This study found that the likelihood of being overweight and obese significantly increased with the frequency of watching television; likely due to physical inactivity during leisure time. Further studies should examine the physical activity and food habits of this target group. Public health promotion programs in India should raise awareness regarding the harmful effects of the sedentary lifestyle associated with watching television.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rajat Das Gupta
- Centre for Non-Communicable Diseases and Nutrition, BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, 68 Shaheed Tajuddin Ahmed Sarani, Mohakhali, Dhaka, Bangladesh
- Centre for Science of Implementation & Scale-Up, BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, 68 Shaheed Tajuddin Ahmed Sarani, Mohakhali, Dhaka, Bangladesh
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Arnold School of Public Health, University of South Carolina, Columbia, South Carolina, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Shams Shabab Haider
- Centre for Science of Implementation & Scale-Up, BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, 68 Shaheed Tajuddin Ahmed Sarani, Mohakhali, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Ipsita Sutradhar
- Centre for Non-Communicable Diseases and Nutrition, BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, 68 Shaheed Tajuddin Ahmed Sarani, Mohakhali, Dhaka, Bangladesh
- Centre for Science of Implementation & Scale-Up, BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, 68 Shaheed Tajuddin Ahmed Sarani, Mohakhali, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | | | - Ibrahim Hossain Sajal
- Centre for Science of Implementation & Scale-Up, BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, 68 Shaheed Tajuddin Ahmed Sarani, Mohakhali, Dhaka, Bangladesh
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, School of Natural Sciences & Mathematics, The University of Texas at Dallas, Dallas, Texas, United States of America
| | - Mehedi Hasan
- Centre for Non-Communicable Diseases and Nutrition, BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, 68 Shaheed Tajuddin Ahmed Sarani, Mohakhali, Dhaka, Bangladesh
- Centre for Science of Implementation & Scale-Up, BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, 68 Shaheed Tajuddin Ahmed Sarani, Mohakhali, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Mohammad Rifat Haider
- Department of Social and Public Health, College of Health Sciences and Professions, Ohio University, Athens, Ohio, United States of America
| | - Malabika Sarker
- Centre for Non-Communicable Diseases and Nutrition, BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, 68 Shaheed Tajuddin Ahmed Sarani, Mohakhali, Dhaka, Bangladesh
- Centre for Science of Implementation & Scale-Up, BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, 68 Shaheed Tajuddin Ahmed Sarani, Mohakhali, Dhaka, Bangladesh
- Institute of Public Health, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany
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Mridha M, Hasan M, Khan S, Hossain M, Sutradhar I. Women Are More Vulnerable to Non-communicable Diseases in Rural and Urban Bangladesh (P18-082-19). Curr Dev Nutr 2019. [DOI: 10.1093/cdn/nzz039.p18-082-19] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Abstract
Objectives
In Bangladesh, the burden of non-communicable diseases (NCD) and their risk factors is increasing. We wanted to assess the vulnerability of women by analyzing the differences in risk factors by gender.
Methods
Between February to May 2018, we carried out a cross-sectional survey to determine the baseline status of the NCD risk factors and prevalence of hypertension and diabetes among >30 years old men and women in selected intervention and control sites in the rural and urban areas of an NCD project in Bangladesh. We interviewed 2464 men (1268 in rural and 1196 in urban areas) and 2466 women (1273 in rural and 1193 in urban areas) and administered blood pressure and anthropometric assessment using the World Health Organization STEPS questionnaire and standard operating procedures. We carried out descriptive analysis using STATA 13.0.
Results
Ninety seven % of men were married at the time of interview but 22% of women were widowed. Prevalence of inadequate fruits and vegetable consumption (77% vs 65%), lack of physical activity (78% vs 59%), overweight and obesity (37% vs 18%), high waist circumference (31% vs 5%), hypertension (28% vs 24%), uncontrolled hypertension after medication (44% vs 63%), self-reported diabetes (11% vs 9%) was higher among women than men. Treatment seeking from a doctor for hypertension (76% vs 73%), intake of anti-diabetic drugs (94% vs 89%) was lower among women than men.
Conclusions
In Bangladesh, the prevalence of selected behavioral and clinical risk factors was higher among women than men. Treatment seeking behavior is slightly better among men than the women. The government should take the vulnerability of women into account while designing and implementing programs to prevent and control NCD in Bangladesh.
Funding Sources
Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA).
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Affiliation(s)
- Malay Mridha
- James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University
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Johnson CO, Nguyen M, Roth GA, Nichols E, Alam T, Abate D, Abd-Allah F, Abdelalim A, Abraha HN, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Adebayo OM, Adeoye AM, Agarwal G, Agrawal S, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aichour MTE, Alahdab F, Ali R, Alvis-Guzman N, Anber NH, Anjomshoa M, Arabloo J, Arauz A, Ärnlöv J, Arora A, Awasthi A, Banach M, Barboza MA, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Basu S, Belachew AB, Belayneh YM, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Bhattacharyya K, Biadgo B, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Bin Sayeed MS, Butt ZA, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Carrero JJ, Carvalho F, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castro F, Catalá-López F, Chaiah Y, Chiang PPC, Choi JYJ, Christensen H, Chu DT, Cortinovis M, Damasceno AAM, Dandona L, Dandona R, Daryani A, Davletov K, de Courten B, De la Cruz-Góngora V, Degefa MG, Dharmaratne SD, Diaz D, Dubey M, Duken EE, Edessa D, Endres M, FARAON EMERITOJOSEA, Farzadfar F, Fernandes E, Fischer F, Flor LS, Ganji M, Gebre AK, Gebremichael TG, Geta B, Gezae KE, Gill PS, Gnedovskaya EV, Gómez-Dantés H, Goulart AC, Grosso G, Guo Y, Gupta R, Haj-Mirzaian A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hamidi S, Hankey GJ, Hassen HY, Hay SI, Hegazy MI, Heidari B, Herial NA, Hosseini MA, Hostiuc S, Irvani SSN, Islam SMS, Jahanmehr N, Javanbakht M, Jha RP, Jonas JB, Jozwiak JJ, Jürisson M, Kahsay A, Kalani R, Kalkonde Y, Kamil TA, Kanchan T, Karch A, Karimi N, Karimi-Sari H, Kasaeian A, Kassa TD, Kazemeini H, Kefale AT, Khader YS, Khalil IA, Khan EA, Khang YH, Khubchandani J, Kim D, Kim YJ, Kisa A, Kivimäki M, Koyanagi A, Krishnamurthi RK, Kumar GA, Lafranconi A, Lewington S, Li S, Lo WD, Lopez AD, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Mackay MT, Majdan M, Majdzadeh R, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Manafi N, Mansournia MA, Mehndiratta MM, Mehta V, Mengistu G, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Miazgowski B, Miazgowski T, Miller TR, Mirrakhimov EM, Mohajer B, Mohammad Y, Mohammadoo-khorasani M, Mohammed S, Mohebi F, Mokdad AH, Mokhayeri Y, Moradi G, Morawska L, Moreno Velásquez I, Mousavi SM, Muhammed OSS, Muruet W, Naderi M, Naghavi M, Naik G, Nascimento BR, Negoi RI, Nguyen CT, Nguyen LH, Nirayo YL, Norrving B, Noubiap JJ, Ofori-Asenso R, Ogbo FA, Olagunju AT, Olagunju TO, Owolabi MO, Pandian JD, Patel S, Perico N, Piradov MA, Polinder S, Postma MJ, Poustchi H, Prakash V, Qorbani M, Rafiei A, Rahim F, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MA, Reis C, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AM, Ricci S, Roberts NLS, Robinson SR, Roever L, Roshandel G, Sabbagh P, Safari H, Safari S, Safiri S, Sahebkar A, Salehi Zahabi S, Samy AM, Santalucia P, Santos IS, Santos JV, Santric Milicevic MM, Sartorius B, Sawant AR, Schutte AE, Sepanlou SG, Shafieesabet A, Shaikh MA, Shams-Beyranvand M, Sheikh A, Sheth KN, Shibuya K, Shigematsu M, Shin MJ, Shiue I, Siabani S, Sobaih BH, Sposato LA, Sutradhar I, Sylaja PN, Szoeke CEI, Te Ao BJ, Temsah MH, Temsah O, Thrift AG, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Tran BX, Tran KB, Truelsen TC, Tsadik AG, Ullah I, Uthman OA, Vaduganathan M, Valdez PR, Vasankari TJ, Vasanthan R, Venketasubramanian N, Vosoughi K, Vu GT, Waheed Y, Weiderpass E, Weldegwergs KG, Westerman R, Wolfe CDA, Wondafrash DZ, Xu G, Yadollahpour A, Yamada T, Yatsuya H, Yimer EM, Yonemoto N, Yousefifard M, Yu C, Zaidi Z, Zamani M, Zarghi A, Zhang Y, Zodpey S, Feigin VL, Vos T, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national burden of stroke, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet Neurol 2019; 18:439-458. [PMID: 30871944 PMCID: PMC6494974 DOI: 10.1016/s1474-4422(19)30034-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1622] [Impact Index Per Article: 324.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/19/2018] [Revised: 12/17/2018] [Accepted: 01/18/2019] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Stroke is a leading cause of mortality and disability worldwide and the economic costs of treatment and post-stroke care are substantial. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic, comparable method of quantifying health loss by disease, age, sex, year, and location to provide information to health systems and policy makers on more than 300 causes of disease and injury, including stroke. The results presented here are the estimates of burden due to overall stroke and ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke from GBD 2016. METHODS We report estimates and corresponding uncertainty intervals (UIs), from 1990 to 2016, for incidence, prevalence, deaths, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). DALYs were generated by summing YLLs and YLDs. Cause-specific mortality was estimated using an ensemble modelling process with vital registration and verbal autopsy data as inputs. Non-fatal estimates were generated using Bayesian meta-regression incorporating data from registries, scientific literature, administrative records, and surveys. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator generated using educational attainment, lagged distributed income, and total fertility rate, was used to group countries into quintiles. FINDINGS In 2016, there were 5·5 million (95% UI 5·3 to 5·7) deaths and 116·4 million (111·4 to 121·4) DALYs due to stroke. The global age-standardised mortality rate decreased by 36·2% (-39·3 to -33·6) from 1990 to 2016, with decreases in all SDI quintiles. Over the same period, the global age-standardised DALY rate declined by 34·2% (-37·2 to -31·5), also with decreases in all SDI quintiles. There were 13·7 million (12·7 to 14·7) new stroke cases in 2016. Global age-standardised incidence declined by 8·1% (-10·7 to -5·5) from 1990 to 2016 and decreased in all SDI quintiles except the middle SDI group. There were 80·1 million (74·1 to 86·3) prevalent cases of stroke globally in 2016; 41·1 million (38·0 to 44·3) in women and 39·0 million (36·1 to 42·1) in men. INTERPRETATION Although age-standardised mortality rates have decreased sharply from 1990 to 2016, the decrease in age-standardised incidence has been less steep, indicating that the burden of stroke is likely to remain high. Planned updates to future GBD iterations include generating separate estimates for subarachnoid haemorrhage and intracerebral haemorrhage, generating estimates of transient ischaemic attack, and including atrial fibrillation as a risk factor. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Das Gupta R, Sajal IH, Hasan M, Sutradhar I, Haider MR, Sarker M. Frequency of television viewing and association with overweight and obesity among women of the reproductive age group in Myanmar: results from a nationwide cross-sectional survey. BMJ Open 2019; 9:e024680. [PMID: 30898812 PMCID: PMC6475159 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2018-024680] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/31/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES This study aimed to discern the association between the frequency of television viewing and overweight and obesity among reproductive age women of Myanmar. DESIGN This was a cross-sectional study. SETTING This study used Myanmar Demographic and Health Survey (2015-2016) data. PARTICIPANTS Total of 12 021 women both aged 15-49 years and also not pregnant or did not deliver a child within the 2 months prior to the survey were included. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES The primary outcome was overweight (23.0 kg/m2 to <27.5 kg/m2) and obesity (≥27.5 kg/m2), which was measured using the Asian body mass index cut-off. Ordered logistic regression analysis was conducted to find the association between the explanatory and outcome variables. The potential confounders controlled in the multivariable analyses were age, place of residence, region of residence, highest educational status, current employment status, wealth index, parity and number of household members. RESULTS The prevalence of overweight was 26.5% and obesity was 12.2% among the study participants. The odds of being overweight and obese were 20% higher (adjusted OR (AOR) 1.16, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.32; p=0.023) among those who watched television at least once a week compared with those who did not watch television at all. Rural women who watched television at least once a week were 1.2 times more likely to be obese (AOR 1.16, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.34; p=0.040) compared with those who did not watch television at all. CONCLUSIONS Frequent television watching was associated with obesity among rural women of reproductive age in Myanmar.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rajat Das Gupta
- Centre for Non-Communicable Diseases and Nutrition, BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, Dhaka, Bangladesh
- Centre for Science of Implementation and Scale-Up, BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Ibrahim Hossain Sajal
- Centre for Science of Implementation and Scale-Up, BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Mehedi Hasan
- Centre for Non-Communicable Diseases and Nutrition, BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, Dhaka, Bangladesh
- Centre for Science of Implementation and Scale-Up, BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Ipsita Sutradhar
- Centre for Non-Communicable Diseases and Nutrition, BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, Dhaka, Bangladesh
- Centre for Science of Implementation and Scale-Up, BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Mohammad Rifat Haider
- Department of Health Services Policy and Management, Arnold School of Public Health, University of South Carolina, Columbia, South Carolina, USA
- Department of Health Promotion, Education, and Behavior, Arnold School of Public Health, University of South Carolina, Columbia, South Carolina, USA
| | - Malabika Sarker
- Centre for Non-Communicable Diseases and Nutrition, BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, Dhaka, Bangladesh
- Centre for Science of Implementation and Scale-Up, BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, Dhaka, Bangladesh
- Institute of Public Health, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany
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Sutradhar I, Gayen P, Hasan M, Gupta RD, Roy T, Sarker M. Eye diseases: the neglected health condition among urban slum population of Dhaka, Bangladesh. BMC Ophthalmol 2019; 19:38. [PMID: 30704423 PMCID: PMC6357461 DOI: 10.1186/s12886-019-1043-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/17/2017] [Accepted: 01/18/2019] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
Introduction Globally, eye diseases are considered as one of the major contributors of nonfatal disabling conditions. In Bangladesh, 1.5% of adults are blind and 21.6% have low vision. Therefore, this paper aimed to identify the community-based prevalence and associated risk factors of eye diseases among slum dwellers of Dhaka city. Methods The study was carried out in two phases. In the first phase, a survey was conducted using multistage cluster sampling among 1320 households of three purposively selected slums in Dhaka city. From each household, one family member (≥ 18 years old) was randomly interviewed by trained data collectors using a structured questionnaire. After that, each of the participants was requested to take part in the second phase of the study. Following the request, 432 participants out of 1320 participants came into the tertiary care hospitals where they were clinically assessed by ophthalmologist for presence of eye diseases. A number of descriptive and inferential statistics were performed using Stata 13. Result The majority of total 432 study participants were female (68.6%), married (82.6%) and Muslim (98.8%). Among them almost all (92.8%) were clinically diagnosed with eye disease. The most prevalent eye diseases were refractive error (63.2%), conjunctivitis (17.1%), visual impairment (16.4%) and cataract (7.2%). Refractive error was found significantly associated with older age, female gender and income generating work. Cataract was found negatively associated with the level of education, however, opposite relationship was found between cataract and visual impairment. Conclusion Our study provides epidemiologic data on the prevalence of eye diseases among adult population in low-income urban community of Dhaka city. The high prevalence of refractive error, allergic conjunctivitis, visual impairment, and cataract among this group of people suggests the importance of increasing access to eye care services. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12886-019-1043-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ipsita Sutradhar
- BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
| | - Priyanka Gayen
- BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Mehedi Hasan
- BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Rajat Das Gupta
- BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | | | - Malabika Sarker
- BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, Dhaka, Bangladesh.,Institute of Global Health, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany
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Sutradhar I, Das Gupta R, Hasan M, Wazib A, Sarker M. Prevalence and Risk Factors of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in Bangladesh: A Systematic Review. Cureus 2019; 11:e3970. [PMID: 30956922 PMCID: PMC6438686 DOI: 10.7759/cureus.3970] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/31/2018] [Accepted: 01/28/2019] [Indexed: 11/05/2022] Open
Abstract
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) including Bangladesh. But no systematic review has been carried out in Bangladesh, which portraits the burden of COPD and its risk factors. Therefore, this systematic review was conducted to find out the prevalence and risk factors of COPD in Bangladesh. We searched PubMed, Google Scholar, Popline, and Banglajol from January 1, 1972 to April 30, 2017. We included studies that reported the prevalence and/or risk factors of COPD among Bangladeshi people. Two researchers independently searched and screened all the articles and extracted data from nine eligible studies. The whole process was verified by another researcher. Quality assessment was performed using a checklist adopted from published articles on quality assessment guidelines of observational studies. Discrepancies were resolved by consensus. Data analysis was done thematically. The pooled COPD prevalence among Bangladeshi adult was 12.5% (95% CI, 10.9-14.1) using the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) criteria and 11.9% (95% CI, 11.4-13.6) using the lower limit of the normality (LLN) criteria. The prevalence was higher among males, low socio-economic group, rural residents, and biomass fuel users. Tobacco consumption, exposure to biomass fuel, old age, and history of asthma were identified as major risk factors of COPD. COPD prevalence is high in Bangladesh. It is a timely need for the policy-makers and public health professionals to take pertinent steps for prevention and control of COPD in Bangladesh.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ipsita Sutradhar
- Epidemiology and Public Health, Brac James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, Dhaka, BGD
| | - Rajat Das Gupta
- Epidemiology and Public Health, Brac James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, Dhaka, BGD
| | - Mehedi Hasan
- Epidemiology and Public Health, Brac James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, Dhaka, BGD
| | - Amit Wazib
- Internal Medicine, Shahabuddin Medical College and Hospital, Dhaka, BGD
| | - Malabika Sarker
- Epidemiology and Public Health, Brac James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, Dhaka, BGD
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Dicker D, Nguyen G, Abate D, Abate KH, Abay SM, Abbafati C, Abbasi N, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdela J, Abdelalim A, Abdel-Rahman O, Abdi A, Abdollahpour I, Abdulkader RS, Abdurahman AA, Abebe HT, Abebe M, Abebe Z, Abebo TA, Aboyans V, Abraha HN, Abrham AR, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Accrombessi MMK, Acharya P, Adebayo OM, Adedeji IA, Adedoyin RA, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Adhena BM, Adhikari TB, Adib MG, Adou AK, Adsuar JC, Afarideh M, Afshin A, Agarwal G, Aggarwal R, Aghayan SA, Agrawal S, Agrawal A, Ahmadi M, Ahmadi A, Ahmadieh H, Ahmed MLCB, Ahmed S, Ahmed MB, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aichour MTE, Akanda AS, Akbari ME, Akibu M, Akinyemi RO, Akinyemiju T, Akseer N, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alebel A, Aleman AV, Alene KA, Al-Eyadhy A, Ali R, Alijanzadeh M, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Aljunid SM, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Allen CA, Alonso J, Al-Raddadi RM, Alsharif U, Altirkawi K, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amini E, Ammar W, Amoako YA, Anber NH, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Animut MD, Anjomshoa M, Anlay DZ, Ansari H, Ansariadi A, Ansha MG, Antonio CAT, Appiah SCY, Aremu O, Areri HA, Ärnlöv J, Arora M, Artaman A, Aryal KK, Asadi-Lari M, Asayesh H, Asfaw ET, Asgedom SW, Assadi R, Ataro Z, Atey TMM, Athari SS, Atique S, Atre SR, Atteraya MS, Attia EF, Ausloos M, Avila-Burgos L, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Awuah B, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayele HT, Ayele Y, Ayer R, Ayuk TB, Azzopardi PS, Azzopardi-Muscat N, Badali H, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Bali AG, Banach M, Banstola A, Barac A, Barboza MA, Barquera S, Barrero LH, Basaleem H, Bassat Q, Basu A, Basu S, Baune BT, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Bedi N, Beghi E, Behzadifar M, Behzadifar M, Béjot Y, Bekele BB, Belachew AB, Belay AG, Belay E, Belay SA, Belay YA, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhane A, Berman AE, Bernabe E, Bernstein RS, Bertolacci GJ, Beuran M, Beyranvand T, Bhala N, Bhatia E, Bhatt S, Bhattarai S, Bhaumik S, Bhutta ZA, Biadgo B, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Bililign N, Bin Sayeed MS, Birlik SM, Birungi C, Bisanzio D, Biswas T, Bjørge T, Bleyer A, Basara BB, Bose D, Bosetti C, Boufous S, Bourne R, Brady OJ, Bragazzi NL, Brant LC, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Britton G, Brugha T, Burke KE, Busse R, Butt ZA, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Callender CSKH, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano Rincon JC, Cano J, Car M, Cárdenas R, Carreras G, Carrero JJ, Carter A, Carvalho F, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castillo Rivas J, Castro F, Catalá-López F, Çavlin A, Cerin E, Chaiah Y, Champs AP, Chang HY, Chang JC, Chattopadhyay A, Chaturvedi P, Chen W, Chiang PPC, Chimed-Ochir O, Chin KL, Chisumpa VH, Chitheer A, Choi JYJ, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Chung SC, Cicuttini FM, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Claro RM, Cohen AJ, Collado-Mateo D, Constantin MM, Conti S, Cooper C, Cooper LT, Cortesi PA, Cortinovis M, Cousin E, Criqui MH, Cromwell EA, Crowe CS, Crump JA, Cucu A, Cunningham M, Daba AK, Dachew BA, Dadi AF, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dang AK, Dargan PI, Daryani A, Das SK, Das Gupta R, das Neves J, Dasa TT, Dash AP, 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Yamada T, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Yasin YJ, Ye P, Yearwood JA, Yentür GK, Yeshaneh A, Yimer EM, Yip P, Yisma E, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, York HW, Yotebieng M, Younis MZ, Yousefifard M, Yu C, Zachariah G, Zadnik V, Zafar S, Zaidi Z, Zaman SB, Zamani M, Zare Z, Zeeb H, Zeleke MM, Zenebe ZM, Zerfu TA, Zhang K, Zhang X, Zhou M, Zhu J, Zodpey S, Zucker I, Zuhlke LJJ, Lopez AD, Gakidou E, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392:1684-1735. [PMID: 30496102 PMCID: PMC6227504 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(18)31891-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 575] [Impact Index Per Article: 95.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/09/2018] [Revised: 07/14/2018] [Accepted: 08/08/2018] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. METHODS The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. FINDINGS Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. INTERPRETATION This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Roth GA, Abate D, Abate KH, Abay SM, Abbafati C, Abbasi N, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdela J, Abdelalim A, Abdollahpour I, Abdulkader RS, Abebe HT, Abebe M, Abebe Z, Abejie AN, Abera SF, Abil OZ, Abraha HN, Abrham AR, Abu-Raddad LJ, Accrombessi MMK, Acharya D, Adamu AA, Adebayo OM, Adedoyin RA, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Adhena BM, Adib MG, Admasie A, Afshin A, Agarwal G, Agesa KM, Agrawal A, Agrawal S, Ahmadi A, Ahmadi M, Ahmed MB, Ahmed S, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aichour MTE, Akbari ME, Akinyemi RO, Akseer N, Al-Aly Z, Al-Eyadhy A, Al-Raddadi RM, Alahdab F, Alam K, Alam T, Alebel A, Alene KA, Alijanzadeh M, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Aljunid SM, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Alonso J, Altirkawi K, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Aminde LN, Amini E, Ammar W, Amoako YA, Anber NH, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Animut MD, Anjomshoa M, Ansari H, Ansha MG, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Aremu O, Ärnlöv J, Arora A, Arora M, Artaman A, Aryal KK, Asayesh H, Asfaw ET, Ataro Z, Atique S, Atre SR, Ausloos M, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Quintanilla BPA, Ayele Y, Ayer R, Azzopardi PS, Babazadeh A, Bacha U, Badali H, Badawi A, Bali AG, Ballesteros KE, Banach M, Banerjee K, Bannick MS, Banoub JAM, Barboza MA, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Barquera S, Barrero LH, Bassat Q, Basu S, Baune BT, Baynes HW, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Bedi N, Beghi E, Behzadifar M, Behzadifar M, Béjot Y, Bekele BB, Belachew AB, Belay E, Belay YA, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berman AE, Bernabe E, Bernstein RS, Bertolacci GJ, Beuran M, Beyranvand T, Bhalla A, Bhattarai S, Bhaumik S, Bhutta ZA, Biadgo B, Biehl MH, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Bilano V, Bililign N, Bin Sayeed MS, Bisanzio D, Biswas T, Blacker BF, Basara BB, Borschmann R, Bosetti C, Bozorgmehr K, Brady OJ, Brant LC, Brayne C, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Briant PS, Britton G, Brugha T, Busse R, Butt ZA, Callender CSKH, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano Rincon JC, Cano J, Car M, Cárdenas R, Carreras G, Carrero JJ, Carter A, Carvalho F, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, 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Abstract
BACKGROUND Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. METHODS The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries-Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. FINDINGS At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5-74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9-19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7-8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5-23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20-8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0-8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0-24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1-33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5-4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2-15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9-59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8-148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2-40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2-36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990-neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases-were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. INTERPRETATION Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Esteghamati S, Fakhim H, Fallah Omrani V, Faramarzi M, Fareed M, Farhadi F, Farid TA, Farinha CSES, Farioli A, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Feigin VL, Fentahun N, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes E, Fernandes JC, Ferrari AJ, Feyissa GT, Filip I, Fischer F, Fitzmaurice C, Foigt NA, Foreman KJ, Fox J, Frank TD, Fukumoto T, Fullman N, Fürst T, Furtado JM, Futran ND, Gall S, Ganji M, Gankpe FG, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Gardner WM, Gebre AK, Gebremedhin AT, Gebremichael TG, Gelano TF, Geleijnse JM, Genova-Maleras R, Geramo YCD, Gething PW, Gezae KE, Ghadiri K, Ghasemi Falavarjani K, Ghasemi-Kasman M, Ghimire M, Ghosh R, Ghoshal AG, Giampaoli S, Gill PS, Gill TK, Ginawi IA, Giussani G, Gnedovskaya EV, Goldberg EM, Goli S, Gómez-Dantés H, Gona PN, Gopalani SV, Gorman TM, Goulart AC, Goulart BNG, Grada A, Grams ME, Grosso G, Gugnani HC, Guo Y, Gupta PC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta T, Gyawali B, Haagsma JA, Hachinski V, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haghparast Bidgoli H, Hagos TB, Hailu GB, Haj-Mirzaian A, 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Kengne AP, Keren A, Khader YS, Khafaei B, Khafaie MA, Khajavi A, Khalil IA, Khan EA, Khan MS, Khan MA, Khang YH, Khazaei M, Khoja AT, Khosravi A, Khosravi MH, Kiadaliri AA, Kiirithio DN, Kim CI, Kim D, Kim P, Kim YE, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kinfu Y, Kisa A, Kissimova-Skarbek K, Kivimäki M, Knudsen AKS, Kocarnik JM, Kochhar S, Kokubo Y, Kolola T, Kopec JA, Kosen S, Kotsakis GA, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko MA, Krishan K, Krohn KJ, Kuate Defo B, Kucuk Bicer B, Kumar GA, Kumar M, Kyu HH, Lad DP, Lad SD, Lafranconi A, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lami FH, Lansingh VC, Latifi A, Lau KMM, Lazarus JV, Leasher JL, Ledesma JR, Lee PH, Leigh J, Leung J, Levi M, Lewycka S, Li S, Li Y, Liao Y, Liben ML, Lim LL, Lim SS, Liu S, Lodha R, Looker KJ, Lopez AD, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Low N, Lozano R, Lucas TCD, Lucchesi LR, Lunevicius R, Lyons RA, Ma S, Macarayan ERK, Mackay MT, Madotto F, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Maghavani DP, Mahotra NB, Mai HT, Majdan M, Majdzadeh R, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Manda AL, Manguerra H, Manhertz T, Mansournia MA, Mantovani LG, Mapoma CC, Maravilla JC, Marcenes W, Marks A, Martins-Melo FR, Martopullo I, März W, Marzan MB, Mashamba-Thompson TP, Massenburg BB, Mathur MR, Matsushita K, Maulik PK, Mazidi M, McAlinden C, McGrath JJ, McKee M, Mehndiratta MM, Mehrotra R, Mehta KM, Mehta V, Mejia-Rodriguez F, Mekonen T, Melese A, Melku M, Meltzer M, Memiah PTN, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mengistu DT, Mengistu G, Mensah GA, Mereta ST, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Mezerji NMG, Miazgowski B, Miazgowski T, Millear AI, Miller TR, Miltz B, Mini GK, Mirarefin M, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw AT, Mitchell PB, Mitiku H, Moazen B, Mohajer B, Mohammad KA, Mohammadifard N, Mohammadnia-Afrouzi M, Mohammed MA, Mohammed S, Mohebi F, Moitra M, Mokdad AH, Molokhia M, Monasta L, Moodley Y, Moosazadeh M, Moradi G, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moradinazar M, Moraga P, Morawska L, Moreno Velásquez I, Morgado-Da-Costa J, Morrison SD, Moschos MM, Mountjoy-Venning WC, 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Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392:1789-1858. [PMID: 30496104 PMCID: PMC6227754 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(18)32279-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7041] [Impact Index Per Article: 1173.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/09/2018] [Revised: 08/30/2018] [Accepted: 09/12/2018] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. METHODS We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. FINDINGS Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]). INTERPRETATION Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392:1736-1788. [PMID: 30496103 PMCID: PMC6227606 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736%2818%2932203-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/07/2018] [Revised: 08/29/2018] [Accepted: 08/30/2018] [Indexed: 01/19/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. METHODS The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries-Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. FINDINGS At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5-74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9-19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7-8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5-23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20-8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0-8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0-24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1-33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5-4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2-15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9-59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8-148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2-40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2-36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990-neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases-were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. INTERPRETATION Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Zucker I, Zuhlke LJJ, Lim SS, Murray CJL. Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392:2091-2138. [PMID: 30496107 PMCID: PMC6227911 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(18)32281-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 264] [Impact Index Per Article: 44.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2018] [Revised: 09/06/2018] [Accepted: 09/12/2018] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. METHODS We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. FINDINGS The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4-67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6-14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1-86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. INTERPRETATION The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains-curative interventions in the case of NCDs-towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions-or inaction-today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Werdecker A, West TE, Whiteford HA, Widecka J, Wijeratne T, Wilner LB, Wilson S, Winkler AS, Wiyeh AB, Wiysonge CS, Wolfe CDA, Woolf AD, Wu S, Wu YC, Wyper GMA, Xavier D, Xu G, Yadgir S, Yadollahpour A, Yahyazadeh Jabbari SH, Yamada T, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Yasin YJ, Yeshaneh A, Yimer EM, Yip P, Yisma E, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Yotebieng M, Younis MZ, Yousefifard M, Yu C, Zadnik V, Zaidi Z, Zaman SB, Zamani M, Zare Z, Zeleke AJ, Zenebe ZM, Zhang K, Zhao Z, Zhou M, Zodpey S, Zucker I, Vos T, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392:1789-1858. [PMID: 30496104 PMCID: PMC6227754 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(18)32279-7#] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/09/2018] [Revised: 08/30/2018] [Accepted: 09/12/2018] [Indexed: 08/12/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. METHODS We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. FINDINGS Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]). INTERPRETATION Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Subart ML, Sufiyan MB, Sulo G, Sunguya BF, Sur PJ, Sutradhar I, Sykes BL, Sylaja PN, Sylte DO, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabb KM, Tadakamadla SK, Tandon N, Tassew AA, Tassew SG, Taveira N, Tawye NY, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Tekalign TG, Tekle MG, Temsah MH, Terkawi AS, Teshale MY, Tessema B, Teweldemedhin M, Thakur JS, Thankappan KR, Thirunavukkarasu S, Thomas N, Thomson AJ, Tilahun B, To QG, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Torre AE, Tortajada-Girbés M, Tovani-Palone MR, Toyoshima H, Tran BX, Tran KB, Tripathy SP, Truelsen TC, Truong NT, Tsadik AG, Tsegay A, Tsilimparis N, Tudor Car L, Ukwaja KN, Ullah I, Usman MS, Uthman OA, Uzun SB, Vaduganathan M, Vaezi A, Vaidya G, Valdez PR, Varavikova E, Varughese S, Vasankari TJ, Vasconcelos AMN, Venketasubramanian N, Villafaina S, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov V, Vollset SE, Vos T, Vosoughi K, Vujcic IS, Wagnew FS, Waheed Y, Walson JL, Wang Y, Wang YP, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Weldegwergs KG, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Whiteford H, 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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392:1995-2051. [PMID: 30496106 PMCID: PMC6227915 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(18)32278-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 243] [Impact Index Per Article: 40.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/08/2018] [Revised: 09/07/2018] [Accepted: 09/12/2018] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. METHODS We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. FINDINGS From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4-52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5-4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10-19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34-40) to 22 livebirths (19-24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3-200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5-2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4-7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15-64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9-1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8-7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07-0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3-0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0-3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. INTERPRETATION Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Hasan M, Sutradhar I, Gupta RD, Sarker M. Prevalence of chronic kidney disease in South Asia: a systematic review. BMC Nephrol 2018; 19:291. [PMID: 30352554 PMCID: PMC6199753 DOI: 10.1186/s12882-018-1072-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/07/2017] [Accepted: 10/05/2018] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is becoming a major public health problem around the world. But the prevalence has not been reported in South Asian region as a whole. This study aimed to systematically review the existing data from population based studies in this region to bridge this gap. Methods Articles published and reported prevalence of CKD according to K/DOQI practice guideline in eight South Asian countries between December 1955 and April 2017 were searched, screened and evaluated from seven electronic databases using the PRISMA checklist. CKD was defined as creatinine clearance (CrCl) or GFR less than 60 ml/min/1.73 m2. Results Sixteen population-based studies were found from four South Asian countries (India, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Nepal) that used eGFR to measure CKD. No study was available from Sri Lanka, Maldives, Bhutan and Afghanistan. Number of participants ranged from 301 in Pakistan to 12,271 in India. Majority of the studies focused solely on urban population. Different studies used different equations for measuring eGFR. The prevalence of CKD ranged from 10.6% in Nepal to 23.3% in Pakistan using MDRD equation. This prevalence was higher among older age group people. Equal number of studies reported high prevalence among male and female each. Conclusions This systematic review reported high prevalence of CKD in South Asian countries. The findings of this study will help pertinent stakeholders to prepare suitable policy and effective public health intervention in order to reduce the burden of this deadly disease in the most densely populated share of the globe. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12882-018-1072-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mehedi Hasan
- Centre for Non-Communicable Diseases and Nutrition, BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, 5th Floor (Level-6), icddrb Building, 68 Shahid Tajuddin Ahmed Sarani, Mohakhali, Dhaka, 1212, Bangladesh.
| | - Ipsita Sutradhar
- Centre for Non-Communicable Diseases and Nutrition, BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, 5th Floor (Level-6), icddrb Building, 68 Shahid Tajuddin Ahmed Sarani, Mohakhali, Dhaka, 1212, Bangladesh
| | - Rajat Das Gupta
- Centre for Non-Communicable Diseases and Nutrition, BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, 5th Floor (Level-6), icddrb Building, 68 Shahid Tajuddin Ahmed Sarani, Mohakhali, Dhaka, 1212, Bangladesh
| | - Malabika Sarker
- Centre for Science of Implementation and Scale-Up, Centre for Non-Communicable Diseases and Nutrition, BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, Dhaka, Bangladesh.,Adjunct Research Faculty, Institute of Public Health, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
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Hasan M, Sutradhar I, Shahabuddin A, Sarker M. Double Burden of Malnutrition among Bangladeshi Women: A Literature Review. Cureus 2017; 9:e1986. [PMID: 29503780 PMCID: PMC5826745 DOI: 10.7759/cureus.1986] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/12/2017] [Accepted: 12/26/2017] [Indexed: 12/18/2022] Open
Abstract
A narrative review was carried out of existing literature comprising nationally representative data. We searched PubMed, Google Scholar, and Banglajol databases. Quantitative studies reporting the prevalence and risk factors of the double burden of malnutrition (DBM) among Bangladeshi women based on nationally representative data were considered for this review. We included studies published between 1st May 2007 and 30th April 2017 in English language. Two researchers individually searched and screened all the relevant articles and separately extracted data using a data extraction table created in Microsoft Excel. Another researcher cross-checked the whole process to maintain consistency. Any sort of disagreement was resolved by group consensus. Thematic analysis was performed for data analysis. According to the included studies, the prevalence of underweight and stunting dramatically reduced among Bangladeshi women in last 10 years, though, nearly one-fourth of women are underweight and one-fifth of women are stunted in Bangladesh. Additionally, nearly half of the country's women are suffering from different micronutrient deficiencies. This immense burden of undernutrition is accompanied by the presence of overweight or obesity among nearly half of the adult women. Women's age, area of residence, education and wealth index have a significant influence on determining their nutritional status. DBM is an inevitable reality among Bangladesh women. The adverse health consequences of women's undernutrition and overnutrition have been well documented. As women's nutritional status is a multifaceted issue, effective implementation of very specific and focused public health interventions with inclusive multi-sectoral and multi-stakeholder approaches are indispensable to combat this problem.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mehedi Hasan
- James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University
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