Accuracy of artificial intelligence software for CT angiography in stroke

OBJECTIVE

Software developed using artificial intelligence may automatically identify arterial occlusion and provide collateral vessel scoring on CT angiography (CTA) performed acutely for ischemic stroke. We aimed to assess the diagnostic accuracy of e-CTA by Brainomix™ Ltd by large-scale independent testing using expert reading as the reference standard.

METHODS

We identified a large clinically representative sample of baseline CTA from 6 studies that recruited patients with acute stroke symptoms involving any arterial territory. We compared e-CTA results with masked expert interpretation of the same scans for the presence and location of laterality-matched arterial occlusion and/or abnormal collateral score combined into a single measure of arterial abnormality. We tested the diagnostic accuracy of e-CTA for identifying any arterial abnormality (and in a sensitivity analysis compliant with the manufacturer's guidance that software only be used to assess the anterior circulation).

RESULTS

We include CTA from 668 patients (50% female; median: age 71 years, NIHSS 9, 2.3 h from stroke onset). Experts identified arterial occlusion in 365 patients (55%); most (343, 94%) involved the anterior circulation. Software successfully processed 545/668 (82%) CTAs. The sensitivity, specificity and diagnostic accuracy of e-CTA for detecting arterial abnormality were each 72% (95% CI = 66-77%). Diagnostic accuracy was non-significantly improved in a sensitivity analysis excluding occlusions from outside the anterior circulation (76%, 95% CI = 72-80%).

INTERPRETATION

Compared to experts, the diagnostic accuracy of e-CTA for identifying acute arterial abnormality was 72-76%. Users of e-CTA should be competent in CTA interpretation to ensure all potential thrombectomy candidates are identified.

Atrial Fibrillation Detected before or after Stroke: Role of Anticoagulation

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) known before ischemic stroke (KAF) has been postulated to be an independent category with a recurrence risk higher than that of AF detected after stroke (AFDAS). However, it is unknown whether this risk difference is confounded by pre-existing anticoagulation, which is most common in KAF and also indicates a high ischemic stroke recurrence risk.

METHODS

Individual patient data analysis from 5 prospective cohorts of anticoagulated patients following AF-associated ischemic stroke. We compared the primary (ischemic stroke recurrence) and secondary outcome (all-cause death) among patients with AFDAS versus KAF and among anticoagulation-naïve versus previously anticoagulated patients using multivariable Cox, Fine-Gray models, and goodness-of-fit statistics to investigate the relative independent prognostic importance of AF-category and pre-existing anticoagulation.

RESULTS

Of 4,357 patients, 1,889 (43%) had AFDAS and 2,468 (57%) had KAF, while 3,105 (71%) were anticoagulation-naïve before stroke and 1,252 (29%) were previously anticoagulated. During 6,071 patient-years of follow-up, we observed 244 recurrent strokes and 661 deaths. Only pre-existing anticoagulation (but not KAF) was independently associated with a higher hazard for stroke recurrence in both Cox and Fine-Gray models. Models incorporating pre-existing anticoagulation showed better fit than those with AF category; adding AF-category did not result in better model fit. Neither pre-existing anticoagulation nor KAF were independently associated with death.

CONCLUSION

Our findings challenge the notion that KAF and AFDAS are clinically relevant and distinct prognostic entities. Instead of attributing an independently high stroke recurrence risk to KAF, future research should focus on the causes of stroke despite anticoagulation to develop improved preventive treatments. ANN NEUROL 2023;94:43-54.

Prehospital transdermal glyceryl trinitrate in patients with ultra-acute presumed stroke (RIGHT-2): effects on outcomes at day 365 in a randomised, sham-controlled, blinded, phase III, superiority ambulance-based trial

Background

The Rapid Intervention with Glyceryl Trinitrate in Hypertensive Stroke Trial-2 (RIGHT-2) reported no overall treatment difference between glyceryl trinitrate (GTN) and sham at day 90. Here we assess participants' outcomes 1 year after randomisation.

Methods

RIGHT-2 was an ambulance-based prospective randomised controlled trial where patients with presumed stroke and systolic blood pressure (BP) of >120 mm Hg received either GTN (5 mg/day) or sham patch. Centralised blinded telephone follow-up was performed at days 90 (primary endpoint) and 365 (secondary endpoint). The lead outcome was dependency assessed with the modified Rankin Scale (mRS).

Results

1149 patients were recruited to RIGHT-2 between October 2015 and May 2018, and 1097 (95.5%) had outcome data recorded at day 365. At baseline, the patients were; female (48%), had a mean age of 73 (15) years, BP of 162 (25)/92 (18) mm Hg, onset to randomisation of 70 (45-115) min, diagnosis of ischaemic stroke (52%), intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) (13%), transient ischaemic attack (TIA) (9%) and mimics (26%). There was no effect of GTN on mRS score at day 365 in participants with confirmed stroke/TIA (adjusted common odds ratio (acOR) 1.10, 95% CI 0.86 to 1.42) or in all patients. In patients randomised to GTN, mRS at day 365 tended to be worse in those with ICH (acOR 1.65, 95% CI 0.84 to 3.25) and better in those with a mimic diagnosis (acOR 0.53, 95% CI 0.33 to 0.84).

Conclusion

At 1 year post randomisation, dependency did not differ between GTN and sham treatment in either the target population or overall. In prespecified subgroup analyses, GTN was associated with reduced dependency in participants with a final diagnosis of mimic and a non-significant worse outcome in participants with ICH.

Trial registration number

ISRCTN26986053.

Acute stroke CDS: automatic retrieval of thrombolysis contraindications from unstructured clinical letters

Introduction

Thrombolysis treatment for acute ischaemic stroke can lead to better outcomes if administered early enough. However, contraindications exist which put the patient at greater risk of a bleed (e.g. recent major surgery, anticoagulant medication). Therefore, clinicians must check a patient's past medical history before proceeding with treatment. In this work we present a machine learning approach for accurate automatic detection of this information in unstructured text documents such as discharge letters or referral letters, to support the clinician in making a decision about whether to administer thrombolysis.

Methods

We consulted local and national guidelines for thrombolysis eligibility, identifying 86 entities which are relevant to the thrombolysis decision. A total of 8,067 documents from 2,912 patients were manually annotated with these entities by medical students and clinicians. Using this data, we trained and validated several transformer-based named entity recognition (NER) models, focusing on transformer models which have been pre-trained on a biomedical corpus as these have shown most promise in the biomedical NER literature.

Results

Our best model was a PubMedBERT-based approach, which obtained a lenient micro/macro F1 score of 0.829/0.723. Ensembling 5 variants of this model gave a significant boost to precision, obtaining micro/macro F1 of 0.846/0.734 which approaches the human annotator performance of 0.847/0.839. We further propose numeric definitions for the concepts of name regularity (similarity of all spans which refer to an entity) and context regularity (similarity of all context surrounding mentions of an entity), using these to analyse the types of errors made by the system and finding that the name regularity of an entity is a stronger predictor of model performance than raw training set frequency.

Discussion

Overall, this work shows the potential of machine learning to provide clinical decision support (CDS) for the time-critical decision of thrombolysis administration in ischaemic stroke by quickly surfacing relevant information, leading to prompt treatment and hence to better patient outcomes.

Cost-Effectiveness of Endovascular Treatment in Large Vessel Occlusion Stroke With Mild Prestroke Disability: Results From the HERMES Collaboration

BACKGROUND

The clinical and economic benefit of endovascular treatment (EVT) in addition to best medical management in patients with stroke with mild preexisting symptoms/disability is not well studied. We aimed to investigate cost-effectiveness of EVT in patients with large vessel occlusion and mild prestroke symptoms/disability, defined as a modified Rankin Scale score of 1 or 2.

METHODS

Data are from the HERMES collaboration (Highly Effective Reperfusion Evaluated in Multiple Endovascular Stroke Trials), which pooled patient-level data from 7 large, randomized EVT trials. We used a decision model consisting of a short-run model to analyze costs and functional outcomes within 90 days after the index stroke and a long-run Markov state transition model (cycle length of 12 months) to estimate expected lifetime costs and outcomes from a health care and a societal perspective. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio and net monetary benefits were calculated, and a probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed.

RESULTS

EVT in addition to best medical management resulted in lifetime cost savings of $2821 (health care perspective) or $5378 (societal perspective) and an increment of 1.27 quality-adjusted life years compared with best medical management alone, indicating dominance of additional EVT as a treatment strategy. The net monetary benefits were higher for EVT in addition to best medical management compared with best medical management alone both at the higher (100 000$/quality-adjusted life years) and lower (50 000$/quality-adjusted life years) willingness to pay thresholds. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed decreased costs and an increase in quality-adjusted life years for additional EVT compared with best medical management only.

CONCLUSIONS

From a health-economic standpoint, EVT in addition to best medical management should be the preferred strategy in patients with acute ischemic stroke with large vessel occlusion and mild prestroke symptoms/disability.

APOE and Cerebral Small Vessel Disease Markers in Patients With Intracerebral Hemorrhage

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

We investigated the associations between the APOE genotype, intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and neuroimaging markers of cerebral amyloid angiopathy (CAA).

METHODS

We included patients from a prospective, multicenter UK observational cohort study of patients with ICH and representative UK population controls. First, we assessed the association of the APOE genotype with ICH (compared with controls without ICH). Second, among patients with ICH, we assessed the association of APOE status with the hematoma location (lobar or deep) and brain CT markers of CAA (finger-like projections [FLP] and subarachnoid extension [SAE]).

RESULTS

We included 907 patients with ICH and 2,636 controls. The mean age was 73.2 (12.4 SD) years for ICH cases vs 69.6 (0.2 SD) for population controls; 50.3% of cases and 42.1% of controls were female. Compared with controls, any APOE ε2 allele was associated with all ICH (lobar and nonlobar) and lobar ICH on its own in the dominant model (OR 1.38, 95% CI 1.13-1.7, p = 0.002 and OR 1.50, 95% CI 1.1-2.04, p = 0.01, respectively) but not deep ICH in an age-adjusted analyses (OR 1.26, 95% CI 0.97-1.63, p = 0.08). In the cases-only analysis, the APOE ε4 allele was associated with lobar compared with deep ICH in an age-adjusted analyses (OR 1.56, 95% CI 1.1-2.2, p = 0.01). When assessing CAA markers, APOE alleles were independently associated with FLP (ε4: OR 1.74, 95% CI 1.04-2.93, p = 0.04 and ε2/ε4: 2.56, 95% CI 0.99-6.61, p = 0.05). We did not find an association between APOE alleles and SAE.

DISCUSSION

We confirmed associations between APOE alleles and ICH including lobar ICH. Our analysis shows selective associations between APOE ε2 and ε4 alleles with FLP, a CT marker of CAA. Our findings suggest that different APOE alleles might have diverging influences on individual neuroimaging biomarkers of CAA-associated ICH.

Normobaric Oxygen Therapy in Acute Stroke: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PURPOSE

Normobaric oxygen (NBO) is potentially a readily accessible neuroprotective therapy. We undertook a systematic review to assess NBO in acute stroke.

METHODS

MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CENTRAL databases were searched to December 2020. Randomized controlled trials of NBO administered <7 days after stroke to normoxic patients with no other indication for oxygen were identified. Data on early neurological recovery; functional outcome; mortality; oxygen saturation, and imaging markers were collected.

FINDINGS

Fifteen publications involving 12 cohorts and 9,255 participants were identified. One study with 8,003 participants had low risk of bias, but the designs of smaller trials had limitations. Ninety-seven per cent of participants were in studies of low-flow oxygen (≤4 L/min). 82.8% had ischaemic stroke. Median time to treatment was 19.3 h. Meta-analysis demonstrated no significant effect on: reduction in National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale at 7 days in all stroke or ischaemic stroke only (mean difference -0.16 [-1.11 to 0.80] and -0.73 [-3.54 to 2.08], respectively); modified Rankin scale at 3-6 months of follow-up (combined standardized mean difference [SMD] -0.08 [-0.38 to 0.22]; 3 months SMD -0.01 [-0.03 to 0.029]; 6-month SMD -0.20 [-1.49 to 1.09]), or mortality (odds ratio 1.15 [0.87-1.53]).

DISCUSSION

The majority of patients were administered low-flow oxygen in the sub-acute phase. Intervention strategies targeted at modification of early tissue survival (higher oxygen delivery and administration at early time points when significant volumes of viable tissue persist) have not been tested adequately.

CONCLUSION

Studies of NBO have shown no significant effect on early neurological recovery, functional outcome, or mortality in acute stroke. Oxygen has been predominantly low-flow and commenced in the sub-acute phase.

Cerebral Microbleeds and Treatment Effect of Intravenous Thrombolysis in Acute Stroke: An Analysis of the WAKE-UP Randomized Clinical Trial

Background and Objectives

Cerebral microbleeds (CMBs) are common in patients with acute ischemic stroke and are associated with increased risk of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) after intravenous thrombolysis. Whether CMBs modify the treatment effect of thrombolysis is unknown.

Methods

We performed a prespecified analysis of the prospective randomized controlled multicenter Efficacy and Safety of MRI-Based Thrombolysis in Wake-Up Stroke (WAKE-UP) trial including patients with acute ischemic stroke with unknown time of symptom onset and diffusion-weighted imaging–fluid-attenuated inversion recovery mismatch on MRI receiving alteplase or placebo. Patients were screened and enrolled between September 2012 and June 2017 (with final follow-up in September 2017). Patients were randomized to treatment with IV thrombolysis with alteplase at 0.9 mg/kg body weight or placebo. CMB status (presence, number, and distribution) was assessed after study completion by 3 raters blinded to clinical information following a standardized protocol. Outcome measures were excellent functional outcome at 90 days, defined by modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score ≤1, and symptomatic ICH according to National Institutes of Neurological Disease and Stroke trial criteria 22 to 36 hours after treatment.

Results

Of 503 patients enrolled in the WAKE-UP trial, 459 (91.3%; 288 [63%] men) were available for analysis. Ninety-eight (21.4%) had at least 1 CMB on baseline imaging; 45 (9.8%) had exactly 1 CMB; 37 (8.1%) had 2 to 4 CMBs; and 16 (3.5%) had ≥5 CMBs. Presence of CMBs was associated with a nonsignificant increased risk of symptomatic ICH (11.2% vs 4.2%; adjusted odds ratio [OR] 2.32, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.99–5.43, p = 0.052) but had no effect on functional outcome at 90 days (mRS score ≤1: 45.8% vs 50.7%; adjusted OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.59–1.64, p = 0.955). Patients receiving alteplase had better functional outcome (mRS score ≤1: 54.6% vs 44.6%, adjusted OR 1.61, 95% CI 1.07–2.43, p = 0.022) without evidence of heterogeneity in relation to CMB presence (p of the interactive term = 0.546). Results were similar for subpopulations with strictly lobar (presumed cerebral amyloid angiopathy related) or not strictly lobar CMB distribution.

Discussion

In the randomized-controlled WAKE-UP trial, we saw no evidence of reduced treatment effect of alteplase in patients with acute ischemic stroke with ≥1 CMBs. Additional studies are needed to determine the treatment effect of alteplase and its benefit-harm ratio in patients with a larger number of CMBs.

Trial Registration Information

ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT01525290; ClinicalTrialsRegister.EU identifier 2011-005906-32.

Classification of Evidence

This study provides Class II evidence that for patients with acute ischemic stroke with unknown time of onset and diffusion-weighted imaging–fluid-attenuated inversion recovery mismatch who received IV alteplase, CMBs are not significantly associated with functional outcome at 90 days.

Effects of oral anticoagulation for atrial fibrillation after spontaneous intracranial haemorrhage in the UK: a randomised, open-label, assessor-masked, pilot-phase, non-inferiority trial

BACKGROUND

Oral anticoagulation reduces the rate of systemic embolism for patients with atrial fibrillation by two-thirds, but its benefits for patients with previous intracranial haemorrhage are uncertain. In the Start or STop Anticoagulants Randomised Trial (SoSTART), we aimed to establish whether starting is non-inferior to avoiding oral anticoagulation for survivors of intracranial haemorrhage who have atrial fibrillation.

METHODS

SoSTART was a prospective, randomised, open-label, assessor-masked, parallel-group, pilot phase trial done at 67 hospitals in the UK. We recruited adults (aged ≥18 years) who had survived at least 24 h after symptomatic spontaneous intracranial haemorrhage, had atrial fibrillation, and had a CHA2DS2-VASc score of at least 2. Web-based computerised randomisation incorporating a minimisation algorithm allocated participants (1:1) to start or avoid long-term (≥1 year) full treatment dose open-label oral anticoagulation. The participants assigned to start oral anticoagulation received either a direct oral anticoagulant or vitamin K antagonist, and the group assigned to avoid oral anticoagulation received standard clinical practice (antiplatelet agent or no antithrombotic agent). The primary outcome was recurrent symptomatic spontaneous intracranial haemorrhage, and was adjudicated by an individual masked to treatment allocation. All outcomes were ascertained for at least 1 year after randomisation and assessed in the intention-to-treat population of all randomly assigned participants, using Cox proportional hazards regression adjusted for minimisation covariates. We planned a sample size of 190 participants (one-sided p=0·025, power 90%, allowing for non-adherence) based on a non-inferiority margin of 12% (or adjusted hazard ratio [HR] of 3·2). This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03153150) and is complete.

FINDINGS

Between March 29, 2018, and Feb 27, 2020, consent was obtained at 61 sites for 218 participants, of whom 203 were randomly assigned at a median of 115 days (IQR 49-265) after intracranial haemorrhage onset. 101 were assigned to start and 102 to avoid oral anticoagulation. Participants were followed up for median of 1·2 years (IQR 0·97-1·95; completeness 97·2%). Starting oral anticoagulation was not non-inferior to avoiding oral anticoagulation: eight (8%) of 101 in the start group versus four (4%) of 102 in the avoid group had intracranial haemorrhage recurrences (adjusted HR 2·42 [95% CI 0·72-8·09]; p=0·152). Serious adverse events occurred in 17 (17%) participants in the start group and 15 (15%) in the avoid group. 22 (22%) patients in the start group and 11 (11%) patients in the avoid group died during the study.

INTERPRETATION

Whether starting oral anticoagulation was non-inferior to avoiding it for people with atrial fibrillation after intracranial haemorrhage was inconclusive, although rates of recurrent intracranial haemorrhage were lower than expected. In view of weak evidence from analyses of three composite secondary outcomes, the possibility that oral anticoagulation might be superior for preventing symptomatic major vascular events should be investigated in adequately powered randomised trials.

FUNDING

British Heart Foundation, Medical Research Council, Chest Heart & Stroke Scotland.

Comparing the Prognostic Impact of Age and Baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale in Acute Stroke due to Large Vessel Occlusion

[Figure: see text].

Small vessel disease burden and intracerebral haemorrhage in patients taking oral anticoagulants

OBJECTIVE

We investigated the contribution of small vessel disease (SVD) to anticoagulant-associated intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH).

METHODS

Clinical Relevance of Microbleeds in Stroke-2 comprised two independent multicentre observation studies: first, a cross-sectional study of patients with ICH; and second, a prospective study of patients taking anticoagulants for atrial fibrillation (AF) after cerebral ischaemia. In patients with ICH, we compared SVD markers on CT and MRI according to prior anticoagulant therapy. In patients with AF and cerebral ischaemia treated with anticoagulants, we compared the rates of ICH and ischaemic stroke according to SVD burden score during 2 years follow-up.

RESULTS

We included 1030 patients with ICH (421 on anticoagulants), and 1447 patients with AF and cerebral ischaemia. Medium-to-high severity SVD was more prevalent in patients with anticoagulant-associated ICH (CT 56.1%, MRI 78.7%) than in those without prior anticoagulant therapy (CT 43.5%, p<0.001; MRI 64.5%, p=0.072). Leukoaraiosis and atrophy were more frequent and severe in ICH associated with prior anticoagulation. In the cerebral ischaemia cohort (779 with SVD), during 3366 patient-years of follow-up the rate of ICH was 0.56%/year (IQR 0.27-1.03) in patients with SVD, and 0.06%/year (IQR 0.00-0.35) in those without (p=0.001); ICH was independently associated with severity of SVD (HR 5.0, 95% CI 1.9 to 12.2,p=0.001), and was predicted by models including SVD (c-index 0.75, 95% CI 0.63 to 0.85).

CONCLUSIONS

Medium-to-high severity SVD is associated with ICH occurring on anticoagulants, and independently predicts ICH in patients with AF taking anticoagulants; its absence identifies patients at low risk of ICH. Findings from these two complementary studies suggest that SVD is a contributory factor in ICH in patients taking anticoagulants and suggest that anticoagulation alone should no longer be regarded as a sufficient 'cause' of ICH.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT02513316.

Computed Tomography Perfusion-Based Machine Learning Model Better Predicts Follow-Up Infarction in Patients With Acute Ischemic Stroke

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Prediction of infarct extent among patients with acute ischemic stroke using computed tomography perfusion is defined by predefined discrete computed tomography perfusion thresholds. Our objective is to develop a threshold-free computed tomography perfusion-based machine learning (ML) model to predict follow-up infarct in patients with acute ischemic stroke.

METHODS

Sixty-eight patients from the PRoveIT study (Measuring Collaterals With Multi-Phase CT Angiography in Patients With Ischemic Stroke) were used to derive a ML model using random forest to predict follow-up infarction voxel by voxel, and 137 patients from the HERMES study (Highly Effective Reperfusion Evaluated in Multiple Endovascular Stroke Trials) were used to test the derived ML model. Average map, T_max, cerebral blood flow, cerebral blood volume, and time variables including stroke onset-to-imaging and imaging-to-reperfusion time, were used as features to train the ML model. Spatial and volumetric agreement between the ML model predicted follow-up infarct and actual follow-up infarct were assessed. Relative cerebral blood flow <0.3 threshold using RAPID software and time-dependent T_max thresholds were compared with the ML model.

RESULTS

In the test cohort (137 patients), median follow-up infarct volume predicted by the ML model was 30.9 mL (interquartile range, 16.4-54.3 mL), compared with a median 29.6 mL (interquartile range, 11.1-70.9 mL) of actual follow-up infarct volume. The Pearson correlation coefficient between 2 measurements was 0.80 (95% CI, 0.74-0.86, P<0.001) while the volumetric difference was -3.2 mL (interquartile range, -16.7 to 6.1 mL). Volumetric difference with the ML model was smaller versus the relative cerebral blood flow <0.3 threshold and the time-dependent T_max threshold (P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

A ML using computed tomography perfusion data and time estimates follow-up infarction in patients with acute ischemic stroke better than current methods.

Prognostic Accuracy of Fetal MRI in Predicting Postnatal Neurodevelopmental Outcome

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The superior diagnostic accuracy of fetal MR imaging in detecting fetal brain abnormalities has been previously demonstrated; however, the ability of fetal MR imaging to prognosticate postnatal outcome is not well-studied. We performed a retrospective analysis to determine the prognostic accuracy of fetal MR imaging in predicting postnatal neurodevelopmental outcome.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We identified all fetal MR imaging performed at the Children's Hospital of Eastern Ontario during a 10-year period and assessed agreement between prenatal prognosis and postnatal outcome. Prenatal prognosis was determined by a pediatric neurologist who reviewed the fetal MR imaging report and categorized each pregnancy as having a favorable, indeterminate, or poor prognosis. Assessment of postnatal neurodevelopmental outcome was made solely on the basis of the child's Gross Motor Function Classification System score and whether the child developed epilepsy. Postnatal outcome was categorized as favorable, intermediate, or poor. We also assessed the diagnostic accuracy of fetal MR imaging by comparing prenatal and postnatal imaging diagnoses.

RESULTS

We reviewed 145 fetal MR images: 114 were included in the assessment of diagnostic accuracy, and 104 were included in the assessment of prognostic accuracy. There was 93.0% agreement between prenatal and postnatal imaging diagnoses. Prognosis was favorable in 44.2%, indeterminate in 50.0%, and poor in 5.8% of pregnancies. There was 93.5% agreement between a favorable prenatal prognosis and a favorable postnatal outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

A favorable prenatal prognosis is highly predictive of a favorable postnatal outcome. Further studies are required to better understand the role of fetal MR imaging in prognosticating postnatal development, particularly in pregnancies with indeterminate and poor prognoses.

Effect of age and baseline ASPECTS on outcomes in large-vessel occlusion stroke: results from the HERMES collaboration

BACKGROUND

Patient age and baseline Alberta Stroke Program Early CT score (ASPECTS) are both independent predictors of outcome in acute ischemic stroke patients treated with endovascular therapy (EVT). We assessed the combined effect of age and ASEPCTS on clinical outcome in acute ischemic stroke patients with LVO with and without EVT, and EVT treatment effect in different age/ASPECTS subgroups.

METHODS

The HERMES collaboration pooled data of seven randomized controlled trials that tested the efficacy of EVT. Adjusted logistic regression was performed to test for multiplicative interaction of age and ASPECTS with the primary outcome (ordinal mRS) and secondary outcomes (mRS 0-2/0-1/0-3) in the EVT and control arms. Patients were then stratified by age (<75 vs ≥ 75 years) and ASPECTS (0-5/6-7/8-10), and adjusted effect-size estimates for the association of EVT were derived for the six age/ASPECTS subgroups.

RESULTS

1735 patients were included in the analysis. There was no multiplicative interaction between age and ASPECTS on clinical outcomes. In the exploratory subgroup analysis, we found a nominally negative point estimate for the association of EVT with clinical outcome in the ASPECTS 0-5/age ≥75, subgroup (acOR 0.36, 95% CI 0.07 to 1.89). The point estimate for moderate outcome (mRS0-3) nominally favored EVT (aOR 1.24, 95% CI 0.16 to 9.84). In all other subgroups, effect size-estimates consistently favored EVT.

CONCLUSION

There was no multiplicative interaction of age and ASPECTS on clinical outcomes in EVT or control arm patients. Outcomes in patients ≥75 years with ASPECTS 0-5 were poor, irrespective of treatment. Further investigation to define the role of EVT and range of acceptable outcomes in this subgroup is warranted.

Haptoglobin genotype and outcome after spontaneous intracerebral haemorrhage

OBJECTIVE

Haptoglobin is a haemoglobin-scavenging protein that binds and neutralises free haemoglobin and modulates inflammation and endothelial progenitor cell function. A HP gene copy number variation (CNV) generates HP1 and HP2 alleles, while the single-nucleotide polymorphism rs2000999 influences their levels. The HP1 allele is hypothesised to improve outcome after spontaneous (non-traumatic) intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH). We investigated the associations of the HP CNV genotype and rs2000999 with haematoma volume, perihaematomal oedema (PHO) volume, functional outcome and mortality after ICH.

METHODS

We included patients with neuroimaging-proven ICH, available DNA and 6-month follow-up in an observational cohort study (CROMIS-2). We classified patients into three groups according to the HP CNV: 1-1, 2-1 or 2-2 and also dichotomised HP into HP1-containing genotypes (HP1-1 and HP2-1) and HP2-2 to evaluate the HP1 allele. We measured ICH and PHO volume on CT; PHO was measured by oedema extension distance. Functional outcome was assessed by modified Rankin score (unfavourable outcome defined as mRS 3-6).

RESULTS

We included 731 patients (mean age 73.4, 43.5% female). Distribution of HP CNV genotype was: HP1-1 n=132 (18.1%); HP2-1 n=342 (46.8%); and HP2-2 n=257 (35.2%). In the multivariable model mortality comparisons between HP groups, HP2-2 as reference, were as follows: OR HP1-1 0.73, 95% CI 0.34 to 1.56 (p value=0.41) and OR HP2-1 0.5, 95% CI 0.28 to 0.89 (p value=0.02) (overall p value=0.06). We found no evidence of association of HP CNV or rs200999 with functional outcome, ICH volume or PHO volume.

CONCLUSION

The HP2-1 genotype might be associated with lower 6-month mortality after ICH; this finding merits further study.

Abstract 75: Hemorrhagic Transformation After Acute Ischemic Stroke Due to a Large Vessel Occlusion is Associated With Less Treatment Benefit

Introduction: Intracranial hemorrhage after acute ischemic stroke patients manifests as natural progression or as a complication of treatment with potential subsequent neurological deterioration. Currently it is unclear whether these hemorrhagic transformations (HT) contribute to the poorer functional outcomes observed in patients with large infarcts. The purpose of this study is to assess the association of HT with follow-up infarct volume (FIV) and functional outcome at 90 days after AIS. Additionally, we determined whether the development of HT was associated with a diminished endovascular therapy (EVT) effect.

Methods: All patients from the HERMES collaboration with follow-up imaging were included. HERMES is pooled data from seven randomized controlled trials that assessed the efficacy and safety of EVT compared to usual care. Patients with HT were identified according to the ECASS classification and FIV was assessed on CT or MRI. Infarct and hemorrhage were included in the FIV. We assessed functional outcome using the modified Rankin Scale 90 days after stroke onset. Ordinal logistic regression with adjustment for potential confounders was used to determine the association of HT and FIV with functional outcome.

Results: Of all included patients with follow-up imaging (n=1665), 42% had HT (n=698). Before and after adjustment for confounders HT and FIV were associated with a shift in the direction of poorer functional outcome (aOR:0.71,95%CI:0.58-0.86 and aOR:0.99,95%CI:0.99-0.99). EVT was beneficial in patients with and without HT, but effect was greater in patients without (aOR:1.70,95%CI:1.27-2.28 vs. aOR:2.51,95%CI:1.97-3.20)(figure 1.)

Conclusions: In this analysis, patients with HT after AIS were less likely to have good functional outcome compared to those without HT, independent of the FIV. While the EVT effect was slightly diminished in patients who developed HT, EVT was always of significant benefit.

ER stress and Rho kinase activation underlie the vasculopathy of CADASIL

Cerebral autosomal dominant arteriopathy with subcortical infarcts and leukoencephalopathy (CADASIL) leads to premature stroke and vascular dementia. Mechanism-specific therapies for this aggressive cerebral small vessel disease are lacking. CADASIL is caused by NOTCH3 mutations that influence vascular smooth muscle cell (VSMC) function through unknown processes. We investigated molecular mechanisms underlying the vasculopathy in CADASIL focusing on endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress and RhoA/Rho kinase (ROCK). Peripheral small arteries and VSMCs were isolated from gluteal biopsies of CADASIL patients and mesentery of TgNotch3R169C mice (CADASIL model). CADASIL vessels exhibited impaired vasorelaxation, blunted vasoconstriction, and hypertrophic remodeling. Expression of NOTCH3 and ER stress target genes was amplified and ER stress response, Rho kinase activity, superoxide production, and cytoskeleton-associated protein phosphorylation were increased in CADASIL, processes associated with Nox5 upregulation. Aberrant vascular responses and signaling in CADASIL were ameliorated by inhibitors of Notch3 (γ-secretase inhibitor), Nox5 (mellitin), ER stress (4-phenylbutyric acid), and ROCK (fasudil). Observations in human CADASIL were recapitulated in TgNotch3R169C mice. These findings indicate that vascular dysfunction in CADASIL involves ER stress/ROCK interplay driven by Notch3-induced Nox5 activation and that NOTCH3 mutation-associated vascular pathology, typical in cerebral vessels, also manifests peripherally. We define Notch3-Nox5/ER stress/ROCK signaling as a putative mechanism-specific target and suggest that peripheral artery responses may be an accessible biomarker in CADASIL.

Confirmatory Study of Time-Dependent Computed Tomographic Perfusion Thresholds for Use in Acute Ischemic Stroke

Background and Purpose—

Computed tomographic perfusion (CTP) thresholds associated with follow-up brain infarction may differ by time from symptom onset to imaging and reperfusion. We confirm CTP thresholds over time to imaging and reperfusion in patients with acute ischemic stroke from the HERMES collaboration (Highly Effective Reperfusion Evaluated in Multiple Endovascular Stroke Trials) data.

Methods—

Patients with occlusion on CT angiography were acutely imaged with CTP. Noncontrast CT and magnetic resonance-diffusion weighted imaging at 24 to 48 hours defined follow-up infarction. Reperfusion was assessed on conventional angiogram. Tmax, cerebral blood flow (CBF), and cerebral blood volume maps were derived from delay-insensitive CTP postprocessing. These parameters were analyzed using receiver operator characteristics to derive optimal thresholds based on time from stroke onset-to-CTP or to reperfusion. ANOVA and linear regression were used to test whether the derived CTP thresholds were different by time.

Results—

One hundred thirty-seven patients were included. Tmax thresholds of >15.7 s and >15.8 s and absolute CBF thresholds of <8.9 and <7.5 mL·min −1 ·100 g −1 for gray matter and white matter respectively were associated with infarct if reperfusion was achieved <90 minutes from CTP with stroke onset-to-CTP <180 minutes. The discriminative ability of cerebral blood volume was modest. There were no statistically significant relationships between stroke onset-to-CTP time and Tmax, CBF, and cerebral blood volume thresholds (all P >0.05). A statistically significant relationship was observed between CTP-to-reperfusion time and the optimal thresholds for Tmax ( P <0.001) and CBF ( P <0.001). Similar but more modest relationship was noted for onset-to-reperfusion time and optimal thresholds for CBF ( P ≤0.01).

Conclusions—

CTP thresholds based on stroke onset and imaging time and taking into account time needed for reperfusion may improve infarct prediction in patients with acute ischemic stroke.

Potential missed opportunities to prevent ischaemic stroke: prospective multicentre cohort study of atrial fibrillation-associated ischaemic stroke and TIA

OBJECTIVE

We report on: (1) the proportion of patients with known atrial fibrillation (AF); and (2) demographic, clinical or radiological differences between patients with known AF (and not treated) and patients with newly diagnosed AF, in a cohort of patients who presented with ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack (TIA) not previously treated with anticoagulation.

DESIGN

We reviewed cross-sectional baseline demographic and clinical data from a prospective observational cohort study, (CROMIS-2).

SETTING

Patients were recruited from 79 hospital stroke centres throughout the UK and one centre in the Netherlands.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients were eligible if they were adults who presented with ischaemic stroke or TIA and AF and had not been previously treated with oral anticoagulation.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Proportion of patients with known AF before index ischaemic stroke or TIA from a cohort of patients who have not been previously treated with oral anticoagulation. Secondary analysis includes the comparison of CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores and other demographics and risk factors between those with newly diagnosed AF and those with previously known AF.

RESULTS

Of 1470 patients included in the analysis (mean age 76 years (SD 10)), 622 (42%) were female; 999 (68%) patients had newly diagnosed AF and 471 (32%) patients had known AF. Of the 471 patients with known AF, 68% had a strong indication for anticoagulation and 89% should have been considered for anticoagulation based upon CHA2DS2-VASc score. Patients with known AF were more likely to have a prior history of dementia (4% vs 2%, p=0.02) and had higher HAS-BLED scores (median 3 vs 2). CHA2DS2-VASc, other risk factors and demographics were similar.

CONCLUSIONS

About 1/3 of patients who present with stroke and have AF who have not been treated with oral anticoagulation have previously known AF. Of these patients, at least 68% were not adequately treated with oral anticoagulation.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT02513316.

Runs of homozygosity and testicular cancer risk

BACKGROUND

Testicular germ cell tumour (TGCT) is highly heritable but > 50% of the genetic risk remains unexplained. Epidemiological observation of greater relative risk to brothers of men with TGCT compared to sons has long alluded to recessively acting TGCT genetic susceptibility factors, but to date none have been reported. Runs of homozygosity (RoH) are a signature indicating underlying recessively acting alleles and have been associated with increased risk of other cancer types.

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether RoH are associated with TGCT risk.

METHODS

We performed a genome-wide RoH analysis using GWAS data from 3206 TGCT cases and 7422 controls uniformly genotyped using the OncoArray platform.

RESULTS

Global measures of homozygosity were not significantly different between cases and controls, and the frequency of individual consensus RoH was not significantly different between cases and controls, after correction for multiple testing. RoH at three regions, 11p13-11p14.3, 5q14.1-5q22.3 and 13q14.11-13q.14.13, were, however, nominally statistically significant at p < 0.01. Intriguingly, RoH200 at 11p13-11p14.3 encompasses Wilms tumour 1 (WT1), a recognized cancer susceptibility gene with roles in sex determination and developmental transcriptional regulation, processes repeatedly implicated in TGCT aetiology.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

Overall, our data do not support a major role in the risk of TGCT for recessively acting alleles acting through homozygosity, as measured by RoH in outbred populations of cases and controls.

Efficacy of endovascular thrombectomy in patients with M2 segment middle cerebral artery occlusions: meta-analysis of data from the HERMES Collaboration

Background

The Society of Neurointerventional Surgery revised its operational definition of emergent large vessel occlusion (ELVO) recently to include proximal M2 segment middle cerebral artery (MCA) occlusions. We sought to assess the benefit of endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) over best medical care for M2 segment MCA occlusion.

Methods

Patient level data from trials in the HERMES Collaboration were included. The HERMES core laboratory identified patients with M2 segment MCA occlusions and further classified them as proximal versus distal, anterior versus posterior division, and dominant versus co-dominant versus non-dominant. Primary outcome was modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score 0–2 at 90 days. Secondary outcomes were modified Thrombolysis in Cerebral Infarction (mTICI) rates at end of procedure, 90-day mRS shift, 90-day mRS 0–1, 24 hours National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score 0–2, symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and death.

Results

130 patients with M2 MCA (proximal location n=116 vs distal n=14, anterior division n=72 vs posterior n=58, dominant n=73 vs co-dominant n=50 vs non-dominant n=7) were included. Successful reperfusion (mTICI 2b or 3) among those undergoing EVT was seen in 59.2% of patients. Treatment effect favored EVT (adjusted OR 2.39, 95% CI 1.08 to 5.28, p=0.03) for 90-day mRS 0–2 (58.2% EVT vs 39.7% control). Direction of benefit favored EVT for other outcomes. Treatment effect favoring EVT was maximal in patients with proximal M2 segment MCA occlusions (n=116, adjusted OR 2.68, 95% CI 1.13 to 6.37) and in dominant M2 segment MCA occlusions (n=73, adjusted OR 4.08, 95% CI 1.08 to 15.48). No sICH (0%) was observed in patients treated with EVT compared with five (7.9%) in the control arm.

Conclusion

Patients with proximal M2 segment MCA occlusions eligible for EVT trial protocols benefited from EVT.

Abstract WP9: Improving Selection of Patients for Endovascular Treatment of Acute Ischemic Stroke:External Validation of a Clinical Decision Tool in Data from the Hermes Collaboration

Background: Benefit of endovascular treatment (EVT) varies between individual patients with acute ischemic stroke. The MR PREDICTS decision tool, previously developed in the MR CLEAN trial, predicts outcome with and without EVT based on baseline patient characteristics and imaging characteristics (www.mrpredicts.com). We externally validated this model with data from recent EVT trials.

Methods: Individual patient data was derived from the six other randomized controlled trials within the HERMES collaboration (ESCAPE, REVASCAT, SWIFT-PRIME, EXTEND-IA, THRACE and PISTE). Outcome of the ordinal logistic regression model was the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) at 90 days after stroke. Treatment benefit was defined as the difference between the predicted probability of achieving functional independence (mRS score 0-2) with and without EVT. Model performance was evaluated according to discrimination (measured with the c-statistic which ranges from 0.5 to 1) and calibration. Model coefficients were updated after calibration.

Results: We included 1243 patients (633 assigned to EVT, 610 assigned to control). The c-statistic was 0.67 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.65-0.69) for the ordinal mRS and 0.73 (95% CI 0.70-0.76) for functional independence, similar to previous performance. Outcomes were systematically better than predicted (calibration slope 0.89 and intercept 0.52). The observed probability of functional independence was higher than predicted for both treated patients (54% vs 40%) and controls (35% vs 26%), but the observed treatment benefit was similar (19% and 14%). Figure 1 shows a screenshot of the decision tool for use in clinical practice.

Conclusion: Our model predicted outcome in a large representative trial population with discriminative value comparable to other well-known prediction tools. The decision tool can be used to support clinical decision making in ischemic stroke by selection of patients for EVT.

Abstract 116: MR PREDICTS@24H -- Multivariable Outcome Prediction After Endovascular Treatment for Acute Ischemic Stroke: Development and Validation of a Prognostic Model in Data From Seven RCTs

Background: Even when the revascularization and clinical status of a patient after endovascular treatment (EVT) for acute ischemic stroke is known, outcome is still highly variable and difficult to predict. We aimed to develop and externally validate a prognostic model that can be applied within one day after EVT to predict functional outcome at three months (MR PREDICTS@24H).

Methods: For model development we used data from patients in the treatment arms of seven randomized controlled trials within the HERMES collaboration. For external validation we used data from the MR CLEAN Registry, a Dutch ongoing prospective multicenter study for consecutive patients treated with EVT between March 2014 and June 2016 (n=1526). Primary outcome was the ordinal modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score three months after EVT. Eighteen pre- and post-procedural variables, assessed within one day after EVT, were analyzed with univariable ordinal logistic regression analysis (p<0.157) and multivariable ordinal logistic regression analysis with stepwise backward selection (p<AIC) and fixed effect for trial. From this model, we derived predicted probabilities of functional independence (mRS 0-2). Model performance was quantified with discrimination (c-statistic) and calibration.

Results: The final model included nine variables: age, baseline stroke severity measured with the NIH Stroke Scale (NIHSS), diabetes mellitus, pre-stroke mRS, collateral score, occlusion location, revascularization grade, NIHSS 24 hours after EVT, and symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage. The model explained 62% of the variance in outcome and NIHSS 24 hours after EVT was the strongest predictor with 54% explained variance. The externally validated c-statistic was 0.84 for the prediction of the ordinal mRS and 0.91 for mRS 0-2, indicating very good model performance. Calibration for mRS 0-2 was also very good (intercept: 0.25 and slope: 0.99).

Conclusion: MR PREDICTS@24H, which can be applied within one day after EVT, accurately predicts functional outcome at three months. It may provide physicians, patients, and family members with improved outcome expectations and could guide physicians in personalizing their patients’ treatment and rehabilitation plans.

Abstract 41: Cerebral Microbleeds and the Effect of Anticoagulation on Outcomes in 3699 Patients With Embolic Strokes of Undetermined Source: An Exploratory Analysis of the NAVIGATE ESUS Trial

Background: Cerebral microbleeds (CMBs) are reported to predict recurrent stroke and antithrombotic-related intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). We characterize CMBs in a well-defined population of embolic strokes of undetermined source (ESUS). Notably, we report for the first time interactions between CMBs and effects of random assignment to anticoagulant therapy.

Methods: Subgroup analyses of the NAVIGATE ESUS randomized trial comparing rivaroxaban 15 mg vs. aspirin 100 mg daily were performed. CMBs were rated on T2*-GRE sequences obtained at baseline MRI in 3699 participants (mean age 67y). Multivariable regression analyses were used to identify variables independently associated with CMBs. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the contribution of CMBs to risk of recurrent stroke, ischemic stroke, ICH and all-cause mortality. Analyses followed the intent-to-treat paradigm.

Results: CMBs were present in 11% of participants. CMBs were strictly deep in 55%, lobar in 26%, and mixed in 19% of cases. Most (68%) had 1-2 CMBs, 27% had 3-10, and 5% >10. Advancing age (OR per yr 1.0, 95% CI 1.01-1.04), East Asian ethnicity (1.6, 1.0-2.4), hypertension (2.2, 1.5-3.2), multi-territorial ESUS (2.0, 1.4-2.7), chronic infarcts (1.8, 1.4-2.2), and occult ICH (5.2, 2.8-9.9) were independently associated with CMBs. During a median follow-up of 11 months, 5.1% of participants had recurrent stroke (4.8% ischemic stroke; 0.3% ICH) and 1.3% died. The presence of CMBs was associated with a 50% increased risk of recurrent stroke (HR 1.5, 95% CI 1.0-2.3), four-fold risk of ICH (4.2, 1.3-13.9), and two-fold risk of all-cause mortality (2.1, 1.1-4.3), and strictly lobar CMBs with a ~2.5-fold risk of ischemic stroke (2.3, 1.3-4.3). There were no interactions between CMBs and treatment assignments for recurrent stroke (p-value for interaction=0.2), ischemic stroke (p=0.3), or all-cause mortality (p=0.6). The hazard ratio (HR) of ICH on rivaroxaban was similar between persons with CMBs (HR 3.1, 95% CI 0.3 - 30.0) and persons without CMBs (HR 3.0, 95% CI 0.6 - 14.7; interaction p=1.0).

Conclusions: CMBs mark an increased risk of recurrent ischemic stroke, ICH and mortality in ESUS, but do not appear to influence effects of rivaroxaban, particularly on the outcome of ICH.

Rivaroxaban or aspirin for patent foramen ovale and embolic stroke of undetermined source: a prespecified subgroup analysis from the NAVIGATE ESUS trial

BACKGROUND

Patent foramen ovale (PFO) is a contributor to embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS). Subgroup analyses from previous studies suggest that anticoagulation could reduce recurrent stroke compared with antiplatelet therapy. We hypothesised that anticoagulant treatment with rivaroxaban, an oral factor Xa inhibitor, would reduce the risk of recurrent ischaemic stroke compared with aspirin among patients with PFO enrolled in the NAVIGATE ESUS trial.

METHODS

NAVIGATE ESUS was a double-blinded, randomised, phase 3 trial done at 459 centres in 31 countries that assessed the efficacy and safety of rivaroxaban versus aspirin for secondary stroke prevention in patients with ESUS. For this prespecified subgroup analysis, cohorts with and without PFO were defined on the basis of transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) and transoesophageal echocardiography (TOE). The primary efficacy outcome was time to recurrent ischaemic stroke between treatment groups. The primary safety outcome was major bleeding, according to the criteria of the International Society of Thrombosis and Haemostasis. The primary analyses were based on the intention-to-treat population. Additionally, we did a systematic review and random-effects meta-analysis of studies in which patients with cryptogenic stroke and PFO were randomly assigned to receive anticoagulant or antiplatelet therapy.

FINDINGS

Between Dec 23, 2014, and Sept 20, 2017, 7213 participants were enrolled and assigned to receive rivaroxaban (n=3609) or aspirin (n=3604). Patients were followed up for a mean of 11 months because of early trial termination. PFO was reported as present in 534 (7·4%) patients on the basis of either TTE or TOE. Patients with PFO assigned to receive aspirin had a recurrent ischaemic stroke rate of 4·8 events per 100 person-years compared with 2·6 events per 100 person-years in those treated with rivaroxaban. Among patients with known PFO, there was insufficient evidence to support a difference in risk of recurrent ischaemic stroke between rivaroxaban and aspirin (hazard ratio [HR] 0·54; 95% CI 0·22-1·36), and the risk was similar for those without known PFO (1·06; 0·84-1·33; p_interaction=0·18). The risks of major bleeding with rivaroxaban versus aspirin were similar in patients with PFO detected (HR 2·05; 95% CI 0·51-8·18) and in those without PFO detected (HR 2·82; 95% CI 1·69-4·70; p_interaction=0·68). The random-effects meta-analysis combined data from NAVIGATE ESUS with data from two previous trials (PICSS and CLOSE) and yielded a summary odds ratio of 0·48 (95% CI 0·24-0·96; p=0·04) for ischaemic stroke in favour of anticoagulation, without evidence of heterogeneity.

INTERPRETATION

Among patients with ESUS who have PFO, anticoagulation might reduce the risk of recurrent stroke by about half, although substantial imprecision remains. Dedicated trials of anticoagulation versus antiplatelet therapy or PFO closure, or both, are warranted.

FUNDING

Bayer and Janssen.

Characterization of Patients with Embolic Strokes of Undetermined Source in the NAVIGATE ESUS Randomized Trial

BACKGROUND

The New Approach Rivaroxaban Inhibition of Factor Xa in a Global Trial vs. ASA to Prevent Embolism in Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source (NAVIGATE-ESUS) trial is a randomized phase-III trial comparing rivaroxaban versus aspirin in patients with recent ESUS.

AIMS

We aimed to describe the baseline characteristics of this large ESUS cohort to explore relationships among key subgroups.

METHODS

We enrolled 7213 patients at 459 sites in 31 countries. Prespecified subgroups for primary safety and efficacy analyses included age, sex, race, global region, stroke or transient ischemic attack prior to qualifying event, time to randomization, hypertension, and diabetes mellitus.

RESULTS

Mean age was 66.9 ± 9.8 years; 24% were under 60 years. Older patients had more hypertension, coronary disease, and cancer. Strokes in older subjects were more frequently cortical and accompanied by radiographic evidence of prior infarction. Women comprised 38% of participants and were older than men. Patients from East Asia were oldest whereas those from Latin America were youngest. Patients in the Americas more frequently were on aspirin prior to the qualifying stroke. Acute cortical infarction was more common in the United States, Canada, and Western Europe, whereas prior radiographic infarctions were most common in East Asia. Approximately forty-five percent of subjects were enrolled within 30 days of the qualifying stroke, with earliest enrollments in Asia and Eastern Europe.

CONCLUSIONS

NAVIGATE-ESUS is the largest randomized trial comparing antithrombotic strategies for secondary stroke prevention in patients with ESUS. The study population encompasses a broad array of patients across multiple continents and these subgroups provide ample opportunities for future research.

External validation of risk prediction models for incident colorectal cancer using UK Biobank

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to compare and externally validate risk scores developed to predict incident colorectal cancer (CRC) that include variables routinely available or easily obtainable via self-completed questionnaire.

METHODS

External validation of fourteen risk models from a previous systematic review in 373 112 men and women within the UK Biobank cohort with 5-year follow-up, no prior history of CRC and data for incidence of CRC through linkage to national cancer registries.

RESULTS

There were 1719 (0.46%) cases of incident CRC. The performance of the risk models varied substantially. In men, the QCancer10 model and models by Tao, Driver and Ma all had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) between 0.67 and 0.70. Discrimination was lower in women: the QCancer10, Wells, Tao, Guesmi and Ma models were the best performing with AUCs between 0.63 and 0.66. Assessment of calibration was possible for six models in men and women. All would require country-specific recalibration if estimates of absolute risks were to be given to individuals.

CONCLUSIONS

Several risk models based on easily obtainable data have relatively good discrimination in a UK population. Modelling studies are now required to estimate the potential health benefits and cost-effectiveness of implementing stratified risk-based CRC screening.

The Cambridge Prognostic Groups for improved prediction of disease mortality at diagnosis in primary non-metastatic prostate cancer: a validation study

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this study is to validate a new five-tiered prognostic classification system to better discriminate cancer-specific mortality in men diagnosed with primary non-metastatic prostate cancer.

METHODS

We applied a recently described five-strata model, the Cambridge Prognostic Groups (CPGs 1-5), in two international cohorts and tested prognostic performance against the current standard three-strata classification of low-, intermediate- or high-risk disease. Diagnostic clinico-pathological data for men obtained from the Prostate Cancer data Base Sweden (PCBaSe) and the Singapore Health Study were used. The main outcome measure was prostate cancer mortality (PCM) stratified by age group and treatment modality.

RESULTS

The PCBaSe cohort included 72,337 men, of whom 7162 died of prostate cancer. The CPG model successfully classified men with different risks of PCM with competing risk regression confirming significant intergroup distinction (p < 0.0001). The CPGs were significantly better at stratified prediction of PCM compared to the current three-tiered system (concordance index (C-index) 0.81 vs. 0.77, p < 0.0001). This superiority was maintained for every age group division (p < 0.0001). Also in the ethnically different Singapore cohort of 2550 men with 142 prostate cancer deaths, the CPG model outperformed the three strata categories (C-index 0.79 vs. 0.76, p < 0.0001). The model also retained superior prognostic discrimination in the treatment sub-groups: radical prostatectomy (n = 20,586), C-index 0.77 vs. 074; radiotherapy (n = 11,872), C-index 0.73 vs. 0.69; and conservative management (n = 14,950), C-index 0.74 vs. 0.73. The CPG groups that sub-divided the old intermediate-risk (CPG2 vs. CPG3) and high-risk categories (CPG4 vs. CPG5) significantly discriminated PCM outcomes after radical therapy or conservative management (p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

This validation study of nearly 75,000 men confirms that the CPG five-tiered prognostic model has superior discrimination compared to the three-tiered model in predicting prostate cancer death across different age and treatment groups. Crucially, it identifies distinct sub-groups of men within the old intermediate-risk and high-risk criteria who have very different prognostic outcomes. We therefore propose adoption of the CPG model as a simple-to-use but more accurate prognostic stratification tool to help guide management for men with newly diagnosed prostate cancer.

Abstract TMP24: Alteplase-Tenecteplase Trial Evaluation for Stroke Thrombolysis (ATTEST 2)

Background: IV thrombolysis with alteplase, the only medical treatment currently approved for acute ischaemic stroke, significantly increases the probability of excellent recovery. A recent trial has demonstrated that the modified tissue plasminogen activator tenecteplase at a dose of 0.4mg/kg is of similar safety and efficacy to alteplase in acute stroke. In addition to having simpler administration, tenecteplase 0.25mg/kg is also potentially superior to alteplase with respect to efficacy, based on meta-analysis of small trials. More data are required to establish the true risk-benefit profile compared with alteplase.

Objectives & Methods: ATTEST-2 will establish whether tenecteplase is superior to alteplase by undertaking a prospective randomised open blinded end-point (PROBE) trial in patients eligible for IV thrombolysis based on non-contrast CT imaging. The study opened to recruitment in Dec 2016. 60 UK centres will recruit 1870 patients.

Outcome: Primary outcome is the distribution of modified Rankin Scale (mRS) outcomes at day 90, determined by the Rankin Focused Assessment method, analysed by ordinal distribution ("shift") analysis of the of scores in intervention and control groups.

Conclusion: An agent with superior risk:benefit ratio to alteplase would potentially extend thrombolytic treatment a greater proportion of patients than at present and reduce the need for mechanical thrombectomy. This trial will contribute to the optimisation of reperfusion strategies.

Abstract 160: Outcomes and Relationship to Time: Alteplase Administration in Patients With Large Vessel Occlusion in Non-intervention Group of the Hermes Collaboration

Background: Data on outcomes and time effects of intravenous alteplase on outcome of patients with documented large vessel occlusion (LVO) are scarce.

Aim: To define the effect of onset to treatment time (OTT) on functional outcomes and mortality among patients in the non-interventional arm of endovascular stroke trials.

Methods: Individual patient-level data from the HERMES collaboration were pooled from seven trials that randomized patients with proven LVO to mechanical thrombectomy + best medical therapy vs. best medical therapy alone. In this analysis only patients who received alteplase directly at the endovascular hospital were included. Primary outcome was degree of disability (mRS distribution) at 3 months. Secondary outcomes included functional independence (mRS 0-2) at 3 months, mortality by 3 months, and symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH).

Results: Among 893 patients in the control arms, 601 received alteplase at the endovascular hospital. The mean age was 66.0 years (SD 13.9), 50% were women, and median NIHSS was 17. 82% were treated within 3 hours from onset and 17% between 3 and 4.5 hours. SICH was observed in 20/585 (3.4%), 3.5% with OTT within 3h vs 3.2% with OTT 3-4.5 hours, p = 1.00. For each 60-minute delay in therapy the cOR for improvement on the mRS was 0.80 (95% CI 0.68 to 0.95, p=0.01) (Figure-A). For each 60-minute delay, the OR for functional independence (mRS 0-2) was 0.82 (95%CI, 0.66 to 1.03, Figure-B). There was no time effect on mortality (cOR, 0.99 (95%CI, 0.79 to 1.23). The reduction in treatment effect by time was not modified by age, baseline NIHSS score, baseline ASPECTS score or occlusion location (p interaction =0.21, 0.81, 0.88, 0.67 respectively).

Conclusion: Faster intravenous thrombolysis delivery is associated with better functional recovery in patients with LVO not destined to receive mechanical thrombectomy. Figure legend: A: 90-day functional outcomes stratified by OTT. B: Proportion of mRS 0-2 the 90-day against OTT

Reasons for non-recruitment of eligible patients to a randomised controlled trial of secondary prevention after intracerebral haemorrhage: observational study

Background

Recruitment to randomised prevention trials is challenging, not least for intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) associated with antithrombotic drug use. We investigated reasons for not recruiting apparently eligible patients at hospital sites that keep screening logs in the ongoing REstart or STop Antithrombotics Randomised Trial (RESTART), which seeks to determine whether to start antiplatelet drugs after ICH.

Method

By the end of May 2015, 158 participants had been recruited at 108 active sites in RESTART. The trial coordinating centre invited all sites that kept screening logs to submit screening log data, followed by one reminder. We checked the integrity of data, focused on the completeness of data about potentially eligible patients and categorised the reasons they were not randomised.

Results

Of 108 active sites, 39 (36%) provided usable screening log data over a median of ten (interquartile range = 5–13) months of recruitment per site. During this time, sites screened 633 potentially eligible patients and randomised 53 (8%) of them. The main reasons why 580 patients were not randomised were: 43 (7%) patients started anticoagulation, 51 (9%) patients declined, 148 (26%) patients’ stroke physicians were not uncertain about using antiplatelet drugs, 162 (28%) patients were too unwell and 176 (30%) patients were not randomised due to other reasons.

Conclusion

RESTART recruited ~8% of eligible patients. If more physicians were uncertain about the therapeutic dilemma that RESTART is addressing, RESTART could have recruited up to four times as many participants. The trial coordinating centre continues to engage with physicians about their uncertainty.

Trial registration

EU Clinical Trials, EudraCT 2012-003190-26. Registered on 3 July 2012.

Sex and Stroke in Thrombolyzed Patients and Controls

Background and Purpose—

We hypothesized that any sex-related difference in outcome poststroke is explained by other prognostic factors and that the response to intravenous recombinant tissue-type plasminogen activator (r-tPA) is equal in males and females after adjustment for such factors.

Methods—

We accessed an independent collection of randomized clinical trials—the VISTA (Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive). Data were preprocessed by selecting complete cases (n=8028) and matching females to males (coarsened exact matching, n=4575, 24.3% r-tPA). Outcome was assessed by the 7-point modified Rankin Scale (mRS) measured at 90 days after ischemic stroke. Relationship among variables was estimated by adjusted regression analysis.

Results—

In nonthrombolyzed patients, ordinal analysis of mRS adjusting for stroke- and sex-related prognostic factors suggested comparable outcomes for females and males (odds ratio, 0.96; 95% confidence interval, 0.85–1.06). Females responded comparably to r-tPA as did males, irrespective of the outcome definition of mRS (ordinal: P Interaction =0.46, relative excess risk because of interaction=0). The number needed to treat was 6.8 and 11.2 for 1 female to achieve mRS score of 0 to 2 and 0 to 1, which was highly congruent with males. Analysis for a nonlinear variation of age-by-sex revealed a good outcome for females <45 years with significant disadvantage thereafter (mRS score of 0–2: P Interaction =0.004). No relationship between sex, r-tPA, and bleeding complications was evident.

Conclusions—

Functional outcome (mRS) without r-tPA was overall similar between the sexes, as was the response to r-tPA. Nonlinear sex-by-age interaction improved estimates of functional independence; this should be considered in sex-related studies in stroke.

Clinical management and research priorities for high-risk prostate cancer in the UK: Meeting report of a multidisciplinary panel in conjunction with the NCRI Prostate Cancer Clinical Studies Localised Subgroup

The management of high-risk prostate cancer has become increasingly sophisticated, with refinements in radical therapy and the inclusion of adjuvant local and systemic therapies. Despite this, high-risk prostate cancer continues to have significant treatment failure rates, with progression to metastasis, castrate resistance and ultimately disease-specific death. In an effort to discuss the challenges in this field, the UK National Clinical Research Institute’s Prostate Cancer Clinical Studies localised subgroup convened a multidisciplinary national meeting in the autumn of 2014. The remit of the meeting was to debate and reach a consensus on the key clinical and research challenges in high-risk prostate cancer and to identify themes that the UK would be best placed to pursue to help improve outcomes. This report presents the outcome of those discussions and the key recommendations for future research in this highly heterogeneous disease entity.

Abstract P213: Vascular Dysfunction and Aberrant Vascular NOTCH3 Signalling in Hypertension and Cerebral Autosomal Dominant Subcortical Infarcts and Leukoencephalopathy (CADASIL)

Hypertension (HT) and CADASIL are clinical conditions of small vessel disease. Vascular dementia is a major feature in CADASIL, and a serious consequence of HT. CADASIL is a monogenic condition due to mutations in NOTCH3 , which is expressed almost exclusively in VSMCs. We hypothesised that altered NOTCH3 signalling in CADASIL and HT are associated with small vessel disease. Small arteries from gluteal biopsies from CADASIL patients (n=14), HT patients (n=3) and healthy controls (n=10) were investigated. Vascular function was assessed by myography. Cultured VSMCs were used to assess signaling through NOTCH3, NO, ER stress (gene array) and Rho kinase (ELISA). CADASIL and HT patients exhibited endothelial dysfunction (Max response: CADASIL 41.7±3%, HT 54.1±2% vs Control 98.2±4%). Pre-incubation with N-acetyl-cysteine ameliorated vasorelaxation. Only CADASIL displayed impaired endothelium-independent relaxation (Max response: CADASIL 53±1.9% vs Control 93±8.9%) and contraction (Max response: CADASIL 78±1.3% vs control 102±5%) (p<0.05). AngII-induced contraction was elevated in HT (98%), yet reduced in CADASIL (28%) (vs control 64% max contraction: p<0.05), despite VSMCs from both conditions displaying increased AT 1 R mRNA expression (HT: 5.1; CADASIL: 3.8; fold vs control; p<0.05). VSMCs from CADASIL and HT have decreased expression of CAMK1, SIRT2 and VEGFA; important in NO signalling (0.5 fold; p<0.05 vs control). VSMC levels of NOTCH3 and NOTCH ligand, JAG1, were increased in CADASIL (3.5, 2.5 fold) and HT (3.0, 2.6 fold, p<0.05). Downstream targets, HEY1 and HEYL, were elevated in CADASIL (3.8, 4.2 fold) and HT (1.9, 2.6 fold) (p<0.05). CADASIL but not HT VSMCs exhibited increased expression of ER stress markers. Rho kinase activity was increased in VSMCs from CADASIL (2.5 fold) and HT (2 fold) vs control (p<0.05). These data demonstrate that in CADASIL and HT, vascular dysfunction, is associated with aberrant NOTCH3 and Rho kinase signalling. In CADASIL, but not HT, endothelium-independent relaxation and ER stress were increased. Our results demonstrate a putative role for NOTCH3 -Rho kinase in vascular dysfunction in conditions of small vessel disease and suggest that ER stress and oxidative stress may be important in vascular injury in CADASIL.

Global Survey of the Frequency of Atrial Fibrillation–Associated Stroke

Background and Purpose—

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is increasingly recognized as the single most important cause of disabling ischemic stroke in the elderly. We undertook an international survey to characterize the frequency of AF-associated stroke, methods of AF detection, and patient features.

Methods—

Consecutive patients hospitalized for ischemic stroke in 2013 to 2014 were surveyed from 19 stroke research centers in 19 different countries. Data were analyzed by global regions and World Bank income levels.

Results—

Of 2144 patients with ischemic stroke, 590 (28%; 95% confidence interval, 25.6–29.5) had AF-associated stroke, with highest frequencies in North America (35%) and Europe (33%) and lowest in Latin America (17%). Most had a history of AF before stroke (15%) or newly detected AF on electrocardiography (10%); only 2% of patients with ischemic stroke had unsuspected AF detected by poststroke cardiac rhythm monitoring. The mean age and 30-day mortality rate of patients with AF-associated stroke (75 years; SD, 11.5 years; 10%; 95% confidence interval, 7.6–12.6, respectively) were substantially higher than those of patients without AF (64 years; SD, 15.58 years; 4%; 95% confidence interval, 3.3–5.4; P <0.001 for both comparisons). There was a strong positive correlation between the mean age and the frequency of AF ( r =0.76; P =0.0002).

Conclusions—

This cross-sectional global sample of patients with recent ischemic stroke shows a substantial frequency of AF-associated stroke throughout the world in proportion to the mean age of the stroke population. Most AF is identified by history or electrocardiography; the yield of conventional short-duration cardiac rhythm monitoring is relatively low. Patients with AF-associated stroke were typically elderly (>75 years old) and more often women.

No space left for intravenous thrombolysis in acute stroke: CONS

Recent successful clinical trials of endovascular thrombectomy for large artery ischaemic stroke have established the value of this treatment modality as an adjunct to intravenous thrombolysis, not as an alternative: thrombectomy delivery was undertaken in the context of highly efficient networks for acute thrombolysis delivery and the great majority of patients received IV thrombolytic drug treatment. Even for the minority of acute stroke patients for whom thrombectomy is potentially relevant, access will be limited by geography and service infrastructure. Developments in intravenous thrombolysis in the near future will likely produce safer and more effective intravenous treatments. Intravenous thrombolysis will remain the first line of treatment for the great majority of acute stroke patients.

Epidemiological Aspects of Referral to TIA Clinics in Glasgow

A retrospective cohort study was carried out of new referrals to transient ischaemic attack (TIA) clinics in Glasgow. The aims of the study were to describe the profile of referrals and to assess the odds ratios for TIA, minor stroke or amaurosis fugax of both cardiovascular risk factors and clinical features.

In total, data were collected for 813 new referrals in a period of six months. Thirteen point eight percent of referrals were from other Health Boards. The overall referral rate among residents of Greater Glasgow NHS Board was 165.6 per 100,000 per year. About 20% of referrals were made by clinicians in secondary care. The specialties from which referrals were most commonly made were accident and emergency, general medicine, ophthalmology and geriatric assessment. The most common risk factors in patients referred were hypertension (52.9%), smoking (31.7%), ischaemic heart disease (22.7%) and former smokers (22.4%). The most common clinical features were hemiparesis (13.3%), weakness of an upper limb (8.7%), vertigo (7.9%) and dysphasia (7.3%). In 48.7% of cases, a non-cerebrovascular diagnosis was made.

Separate multivariate models were established for risk factors and clinical features. In the model for risk factors, five factors were significant for risk of TIA, stroke or amaurosis fugax. These were hyperlipidaemia, age over 64 years, hypertension, smoking and ex-smoking. In the model for clinical features, five factors were also significant. These were visual field defect, speech defact, facial weakness and hemiparesis.

Embolic strokes of undetermined source: Prevalence and patient features in the ESUS Global Registry

Background

Recent evidence supports that most non-lacunar cryptogenic strokes are embolic. Accordingly, these strokes have been designated as embolic strokes of undetermined source (ESUS).

Aims

We undertook an international survey to characterize the frequency and clinical features of ESUS patients across global regions.

Methods

Consecutive patients hospitalized for ischemic stroke were retrospectively surveyed from 19 stroke research centers in 19 different countries to collect patients meeting criteria for ESUS.

Results

Of 2144 patients with recent ischemic stroke, 351 (16%, 95% CI 15% to 18%) met ESUS criteria, similar across global regions (range 16% to 21%), and an additional 308 (14%) patients had incomplete evaluation required for ESUS diagnosis. The mean age of ESUS patients (62 years; SD = 15) was significantly lower than the 1793 non-ESUS ischemic stroke patients (68 years, p ≤ 0.001). Excluding patients with atrial fibrillation ( n = 590, mean age = 75 years), the mean age of the remaining 1203 non-ESUS ischemic stroke patients was 64 years ( p = 0.02 vs. ESUS patients). Among ESUS patients, hypertension, diabetes, and prior stroke were present in 64%, 25%, and 17%, respectively. Median NIHSS score was 4 (interquartile range 2–8). At discharge, 90% of ESUS patients received antiplatelet therapy and 7% received anticoagulation.

Conclusions

This cross-sectional global sample of patients with recent ischemic stroke shows that one-sixth met criteria for ESUS, with additional ESUS patients likely among those with incomplete diagnostic investigation. ESUS patients were relatively young with mild strokes. Antiplatelet therapy was the standard antithrombotic therapy for secondary stroke prevention in all global regions.

When should placebo surgery as a control in clinical trials be carried out?

Placebo surgery – often maligned as ‘sham surgery’ – is a tough sell to patients and to many clinicians. But could surgical research benefit from increased use of placebo control groups?