Mortality-Air Pollution Associations in Low Exposure Environments (MAPLE): Phase 2

INTRODUCTION

Mortality is associated with long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (particulate matter ≤2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter; PM2.5), although the magnitude and form of these associations remain poorly understood at lower concentrations. Knowledge gaps include the shape of concentration-response curves and the lowest levels of exposure at which increased risks are evident and the occurrence and extent of associations with specific causes of death. Here, we applied improved estimates of exposure to ambient PM2.5 to national population-based cohorts in Canada, including a stacked cohort of 7.1 million people who responded to census year 1991, 1996, or 2001. The characterization of the shape of the concentration-response relationship for nonaccidental mortality and several specific causes of death at low levels of exposure was the focus of the Mortality-Air Pollution Associations in Low Exposure Environments (MAPLE) Phase 1 report. In the Phase 1 report we reported that associations between outdoor PM2.5 concentrations and nonaccidental mortality were attenuated with the addition of ozone (O3) or a measure of gaseous pollutant oxidant capacity (Ox), which was estimated from O3 and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations. This was motivated by our interests in understanding both the effects air pollutant mixtures may have on mortality and also the role of O3 as a copollutant that shares common sources and precursor emissions with those of PM2.5. In this Phase 2 report, we further explore the sensitivity of these associations with O3 and Ox, evaluate sensitivity to other factors, such as regional variation, and present ambient PM2.5 concentration-response relationships for specific causes of death.

METHODS

PM2.5 concentrations were estimated at 1 km2 spatial resolution across North America using remote sensing of aerosol optical depth (AOD) combined with chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) simulations of the AOD:surface PM2.5 mass concentration relationship, land use information, and ground monitoring. These estimates were informed and further refined with collocated measurements of PM2.5 and AOD, including targeted measurements in areas of low PM2.5 concentrations collected at five locations across Canada. Ground measurements of PM2.5 and total suspended particulate matter (TSP) mass concentrations from 1981 to 1999 were used to backcast remote-sensing-based estimates over that same time period, resulting in modeled annual surfaces from 1981 to 2016.

Annual exposures to PM2.5 were then estimated for subjects in several national population-based Canadian cohorts using residential histories derived from annual postal code entries in income tax files. These cohorts included three census-based cohorts: the 1991 Canadian Census Health and Environment Cohort (CanCHEC; 2.5 million respondents), the 1996 CanCHEC (3 million respondents), the 2001 CanCHEC (3 million respondents), and a Stacked CanCHEC where duplicate records of respondents were excluded (Stacked CanCHEC; 7.1 million respondents). The Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) mortality cohort (mCCHS), derived from several pooled cycles of the CCHS (540,900 respondents), included additional individual information about health behaviors. Follow-up periods were completed to the end of 2016 for all cohorts. Cox proportional hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated for nonaccidental and other major causes of death using a 10-year moving average exposure and 1-year lag. All models were stratified by age, sex, immigrant status, and where appropriate, census year or survey cycle. Models were further adjusted for income adequacy quintile, visible minority status, Indigenous identity, educational attainment, labor-force status, marital status, occupation, and ecological covariates of community size, airshed, urban form, and four dimensions of the Canadian Marginalization Index (Can-Marg; instability, deprivation, dependency, and ethnic concentration). The mCCHS analyses were also adjusted for individual-level measures of smoking, alcohol consumption, fruit and vegetable consumption, body mass index (BMI), and exercise behavior.

In addition to linear models, the shape of the concentration-response function was investigated using restricted cubic splines (RCS). The number of knots were selected by minimizing the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). Two additional models were used to examine the association between nonaccidental mortality and PM2.5. The first is the standard threshold model defined by a transformation of concentration equaling zero if the concentration was less than a specific threshold value and concentration minus the threshold value for concentrations above the threshold. The second additional model was an extension of the Shape Constrained Health Impact Function (SCHIF), the eSCHIF, which converts RCS predictions into functions potentially more suitable for use in health impact assessments. Given the RCS parameter estimates and their covariance matrix, 1,000 realizations of the RCS were simulated at concentrations from the minimum to the maximum concentration, by increments of 0.1 μg/m3. An eSCHIF was then fit to each of these RCS realizations. Thus, 1,000 eSCHIF predictions and uncertainty intervals were determined at each concentration within the total range.

Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine associations between PM2.5 and mortality when in the presence of, or stratified by tertile of, O3 or Ox. Additionally, associations between PM2.5 and mortality were assessed for sensitivity to lower concentration thresholds, where person-years below a threshold value were assigned the mean exposure within that group. We also examined the sensitivity of the shape of the nonaccidental mortality-PM2.5 association to removal of person-years at or above 12 μg/m3 (the current U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standard) and 10 μg/m3 (the current Canadian and former [2005] World Health Organization [WHO] guideline, and current WHO Interim Target-4). Finally, differences in the shapes of PM2.5-mortality associations were assessed across broad geographic regions (airsheds) within Canada.

RESULTS

The refined PM2.5 exposure estimates demonstrated improved performance relative to estimates applied previously and in the MAPLE Phase 1 report, with slightly reduced errors, including at lower ranges of concentrations (e.g., for PM2.5 <10 μg/m3).

Positive associations between outdoor PM2.5 concentrations and nonaccidental mortality were consistently observed in all cohorts. In the Stacked CanCHEC analyses (1.3 million deaths), each 10-μg/m3 increase in outdoor PM2.5 concentration corresponded to an HR of 1.084 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.073 to 1.096) for nonaccidental mortality. For an interquartile range (IQR) increase in PM2.5 mass concentration of 4.16 μg/m3 and for a mean annual nonaccidental death rate of 92.8 per 10,000 persons (over the 1991-2016 period for cohort participants ages 25-90), this HR corresponds to an additional 31.62 deaths per 100,000 people, which is equivalent to an additional 7,848 deaths per year in Canada, based on the 2016 population. In RCS models, mean HR predictions increased from the minimum concentration of 2.5 μg/m3 to 4.5 μg/m3, flattened from 4.5 μg/m3 to 8.0 μg/m3, then increased for concentrations above 8.0 μg/m3. The threshold model results reflected this pattern with -2 log-likelihood values being equal at 2.5 μg/m3 and 8.0 μg/m3. However, mean threshold model predictions monotonically increased over the concentration range with the lower 95% CI equal to one from 2.5 μg/m3 to 8.0 μg/m3. The RCS model was a superior predictor compared with any of the threshold models, including the linear model.

In the mCCHS cohort analyses inclusion of behavioral covariates did not substantially change the results for both linear and nonlinear models. We examined the sensitivity of the shape of the nonaccidental mortality-PM2.5 association to removal of person-years at or above the current U.S. and Canadian standards of 12 μg/m3 and 10 μg/m3, respectively. In the full cohort and in both restricted cohorts, a steep increase was observed from the minimum concentration of 2.5 μg/m3 to 5 μg/m3. For the full cohort and the <12 μg/m3 cohort the relationship flattened over the 5 to 9 μg/m3 range and then increased above 9 μg/m3. A similar increase was observed for the <10 μg/m3 cohort followed by a clear decline in the magnitude of predictions over the 5 to 9 μg/m3 range and an increase above 9 μg/m3. Together these results suggest that a positive association exists for concentrations >9 μg/m3 with indications of adverse effects on mortality at concentrations as low as 2.5 μg/m3.

Among the other causes of death examined, PM2.5 exposures were consistently associated with an increased hazard of mortality due to ischemic heart disease, respiratory disease, cardiovascular disease, and diabetes across all cohorts. Associations were observed in the Stacked CanCHEC but not in all other cohorts for cerebrovascular disease, pneumonia, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) mortality. No significant associations were observed between mortality and exposure to PM2.5 for heart failure, lung cancer, and kidney failure.

In sensitivity analyses, the addition of O3 and Ox attenuated associations between PM2.5 and mortality. When analyses were stratified by tertiles of copollutants, associations between PM2.5 and mortality were only observed in the highest tertile of O3 or Ox. Across broad regions of Canada, linear HR estimates and the shape of the eSCHIF varied substantially, possibly reflecting underlying differences in air pollutant mixtures not characterized by PM2.5 mass concentrations or the included gaseous pollutants. Sensitivity analyses to assess regional variation in population characteristics and access to healthcare indicated that the observed regional differences in concentration-mortality relationships, specifically the flattening of the concentration-mortality relationship over the 5 to 9 μg/m3 range, was not likely related to variation in the makeup of the cohort or its access to healthcare, lending support to the potential role of spatially varying air pollutant mixtures not sufficiently characterized by PM2.5 mass concentrations.

CONCLUSIONS

In several large, national Canadian cohorts, including a cohort of 7.1 million unique census respondents, associations were observed between exposure to PM2.5 with nonaccidental mortality and several specific causes of death. Associations with nonaccidental mortality were observed using the eSCHIF methodology at concentrations as low as 2.5 μg/m3, and there was no clear evidence in the observed data of a lower threshold, below which PM2.5 was not associated with nonaccidental mortality.

Global Burden of Disease from Major Air Pollution Sources (GBD MAPS): A Global Approach

Ambient fine particulate matter (particles <2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter [PM2.5]) is the world's leading environmental health risk factor. Reducing the PM2.5 disease burden requires specific strategies that target dominant sources across multiple spatial scales. The Global Burden of Disease from Major Air Pollution Sources (GBD MAPS) project provides a contemporary and comprehensive evaluation of contributions to the ambient PM2.5 disease burden from source sectors and fuels across 21 regions, 204 countries, and 200 subnational areas. We first derived quantitative contributions from 24 emission sensitivity simulations using an updated global atmospheric chemistry-transport model, input with a newly developed detailed anthropogenic emissions dataset that includes emissions specific to source sector and fuels. These simulation results were integrated with newly available high-resolution satellite-derived PM2.5 exposure estimates and disease-specific concentration-response relationships consistent with the GBD project to quantify contributions of specific source sector and fuel to the ambient PM2.5 disease burden across all regions, countries, and subnational areas. To improve the transparency and reproducibility of this and future work, we publicly provided the global atmospheric chemistry-transport model source code, emissions dataset and emissions model source code, analysis scripts, and source sensitivity results, and further described the emissions dataset and source contribution results in two publications.

We found that nearly 1.05 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 0.74-1.36 million) deaths worldwide (27.3% of the total mortality attributable to PM2.5) would be avoidable by eliminating fossil fuel combustion, with coal contributing over half of that burden. Residential (19.2%; 736,000 deaths [95% UI: 521,000-955,000]), industrial (11.7%; 448,000 deaths [95% UI: 318,000-582,000]), and energy (10.2%; 391,000 deaths [95% UI: 277,000-507,000]) sector emissions are among the dominant global sources Uncertainty in these estimates reflects those of the input datasets. Regions with the largest anthropogenic contributions generally have the highest numbers of attributable deaths, which clearly demonstrates the importance of reducing these emissions to realize reductions in global air pollution and its disease burden.

Familial primary ovarian insufficiency associated with an SYCE1 point mutation: defective meiosis elucidated in humanized mice

More than 50% of cases of primary ovarian insufficiency (POI) and nonobstructive azoospermia in humans are classified as idiopathic infertility. Meiotic defects may relate to at least some of these cases. Mutations in genes coding for synaptonemal complex (SC) components have been identified in humans, and hypothesized to be causative for the observed infertile phenotype. Mutation SYCE1 c.721C>T (former c.613C>T)-a familial mutation reported in two sisters with primary amenorrhea-was the first such mutation found in an SC central element component-coding gene. Most fundamental mammalian oogenesis events occur during the embryonic phase, and eventual defects are identified many years later, thus leaving few possibilities to study the condition's etiology and pathogenesis. Aiming to validate an approach to circumvent this difficulty, we have used the CRISPR/Cas9 technology to generate a mouse model with an SYCE1 c.721C>T equivalent genome alteration. We hereby present the characterization of the homozygous mutant mice phenotype, compared to their wild type and heterozygous littermates. Our results strongly support a causative role of this mutation for the POI phenotype in human patients, and the mechanisms involved would relate to defects in homologous chromosome synapsis. No SYCE1 protein was detected in homozygous mutants and Syce1 transcript level was highly diminished, suggesting transcript degradation as the basis of the infertility mechanism. This is the first report on the generation of a humanized mouse model line for the study of an infertility-related human mutation in an SC component-coding gene, thus representing a proof of principle.

Mortality-Air Pollution Associations in Low-Exposure Environments (MAPLE): Phase 1

INTRODUCTION

Fine particulate matter (particulate matter ≤2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter, or PM2.5) is associated with mortality, but the lower range of relevant concentrations is unknown. Novel satellite-derived estimates of outdoor PM2.5 concentrations were applied to several large population-based cohorts, and the shape of the relationship with nonaccidental mortality was characterized, with emphasis on the low concentrations (<12 μg/m3) observed throughout Canada.

METHODS

Annual satellite-derived estimates of outdoor PM2.5 concentrations were developed at 1-km2 spatial resolution across Canada for 2000-2016 and backcasted to 1981 using remote sensing, chemical transport models, and ground monitoring data. Targeted ground-based measurements were conducted to measure the relationship between columnar aerosol optical depth (AOD) and ground-level PM2.5. Both existing and targeted ground-based measurements were analyzed to develop improved exposure data sets for subsequent epidemiological analyses.

Residential histories derived from annual tax records were used to estimate PM2.5 exposures for subjects whose ages ranged from 25 to 90 years. About 8.5 million were from three Canadian Census Health and Environment Cohort (CanCHEC) analytic files and another 540,900 were Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) participants. Mortality was linked through the year 2016. Hazard ratios (HR) were estimated with Cox Proportional Hazard models using a 3-year moving average exposure with a 1-year lag, with the year of follow-up as the time axis. All models were stratified by 5-year age groups, sex, and immigrant status. Covariates were based on directed acyclical graphs (DAG), and included contextual variables (airshed, community size, neighborhood dependence, neighborhood deprivation, ethnic concentration, neighborhood instability, and urban form). A second model was examined including the DAG-based covariates as well as all subject-level risk factors (income, education, marital status, indigenous identity, employment status, occupational class, and visible minority status) available in each cohort. Additional subject-level behavioral covariates (fruit and vegetable consumption, leisure exercise frequency, alcohol consumption, smoking, and body mass index [BMI]) were included in the CCHS analysis.

Sensitivity analyses evaluated adjustment for covariates and gaseous copollutants (nitrogen dioxide [NO2] and ozone [O3]), as well as exposure time windows and spatial scales. Estimates were evaluated across strata of age, sex, and immigrant status. The shape of the PM2.5-mortality association was examined by first fitting restricted cubic splines (RCS) with a large number of knots and then fitting the shape-constrained health impact function (SCHIF) to the RCS predictions and their standard errors (SE). This method provides graphical results indicating the RCS predictions, as a nonparametric means of characterizing the concentration-response relationship in detail and the resulting mean SCHIF and accompanying uncertainty as a parametric summary.

Sensitivity analyses were conducted in the CCHS cohort to evaluate the potential influence of unmeasured covariates on air pollution risk estimates. Specifically, survival models with all available risk factors were fit and compared with models that omitted covariates not available in the CanCHEC cohorts. In addition, the PM2.5 risk estimate in the CanCHEC cohort was indirectly adjusted for multiple individual-level risk factors by estimating the association between PM2.5 and these covariates within the CCHS.

RESULTS

Satellite-derived PM2.5 estimates were low and highly correlated with ground monitors. HR estimates (per 10-μg/m3 increase in PM2.5) were similar for the 1991 (1.041, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.016-1.066) and 1996 (1.041, 1.024-1.059) CanCHEC cohorts with a larger estimate observed for the 2001 cohort (1.084, 1.060-1.108). The pooled cohort HR estimate was 1.053 (1.041-1.065). In the CCHS an analogous model indicated a HR of 1.13 (95% CI: 1.06-1.21), which was reduced slightly with the addition of behavioral covariates (1.11, 1.04-1.18). In each of the CanCHEC cohorts, the RCS increased rapidly over lower concentrations, slightly declining between the 25th and 75th percentiles and then increasing beyond the 75th percentile. The steepness of the increase in the RCS over lower concentrations diminished as the cohort start date increased. The SCHIFs displayed a supralinear association in each of the three CanCHEC cohorts and in the CCHS cohort.

In sensitivity analyses conducted with the 2001 CanCHEC, longer moving averages (1, 3, and 8 years) and smaller spatial scales (1 km2 vs. 10 km2) of exposure assignment resulted in larger associations between PM2.5 and mortality. In both the CCHS and CanCHEC analyses, the relationship between nonaccidental mortality and PM2.5 was attenuated when O3 or a weighted measure of oxidant gases was included in models. In the CCHS analysis, but not in CanCHEC, PM2.5 HRs were also attenuated by the inclusion of NO2. Application of the indirect adjustment and comparisons within the CCHS analysis suggests that missing data on behavioral risk factors for mortality had little impact on the magnitude of PM2.5-mortality associations. While immigrants displayed improved overall survival compared with those born in Canada, their sensitivity to PM2.5 was similar to or larger than that for nonimmigrants, with differences between immigrants and nonimmigrants decreasing in the more recent cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

In several large population-based cohorts exposed to low levels of air pollution, consistent associations were observed between PM2.5 and nonaccidental mortality for concentrations as low as 5 μg/m3. This relationship was supralinear with no apparent threshold or sublinear association.

A Dynamic Three-Dimensional Air Pollution Exposure Model for Hong Kong

INTRODUCTION

High-density high-rise cities have become a more prominent feature globally. Air quality is a significant public health risk in many of these cities. There is a need to better understand the extent to which vertical variation in air pollution and population mobility in such cities affect exposure and exposure-response relationships in epidemiological studies.

METHODS

We used a novel strategy to execute a staged model development that incorporated horizontal and vertical pollutant dispersion, building infiltration, and population mobility patterns in estimating traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) exposures in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HK SAR).

Two street-level spatial monitoring campaigns were undertaken to facilitate the creation of a two-dimensional land-use regression (LUR) model. A network of approximately 100 passive nitric oxide-nitrogen dioxide (NO-NO2) monitors was deployed for two-week periods during the cool and warm seasons. Sampling locations were selected based on population and road network density with a range of physical and geographical characteristics represented. Eight sets of portable monitors for black carbon (BC) and particulate matter ≤2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) were rotated so as to be deployed at 80 locations for a 24-hour period. Land-use, geographical, and emissions layers were combined with the spatial monitoring campaign results to create spatiotemporal exposure models.

Vertical air pollution monitoring was carried out at six strategic locations for two weeks in the warm season and two weeks in the cool season. Continuous measurements were carried out at four different heights of a residential building and on both sides of a street canyon. The heights ranged from as close to street level as practically possible up to a maximum of 50 meters (i.e., below the 20th floor). Paired indoor monitoring was included to allow the calculation of infiltration coefficients to feed into the dynamic component of the exposure model.

The final phase of model development addressed population mobility. A population-representative travel behavior survey (n = 89,358) was used to produce the dynamic component of the model, with time-weighted exposure estimates split between home and work or school. Transport microenvironment exposures were taken from published literature. Time-activity exposure estimates were split by age, sex, and employment status.

Development of the exposure model in distinct packages allowed the application of a staged approach to an existing cohort data set. Mortality risk estimates for an elderly cohort of 66,000 Hong Kong residents were calculated using increasing exposure model complexity.

RESULTS

The street-level (2-dimensional [2D]) LUR modeling captured important spatial parameters and represented spatial patterns of air quality in Hong Kong that were consistent with the literature. Higher concentrations of gaseous pollutants were centered in Kowloon and the northern region of Hong Kong Island. PM2.5 and BC predictions exhibited a north-south/west-east gradient, with higher concentrations in the northwest due to regional transport of particulate pollutants from Mainland China. While the degree of explained variance of the models was in line with other LUR modeling efforts in Asia, R2 values ranged from 0.46 (NO2) to 0.59 (PM2.5).

Exponential decay rates (k) were calculated at each monitoring location. While it was clear that k values were higher during the warm season than the cool season, no robust patterns were identified relating to the canyon physical parameters. Therefore, a single decay rate was used for each pollutant across the whole region for derivation of the 3-dimensional (3D) exposure layer (k = 0.004 and 0.012 for PM2.5 and BC, respectively). An alternative decay profile that capped decay at 20 meters above street level was proposed and evaluated. The electrochemical sensors deployed during the canyon campaigns did not exhibit the degree of interunit precision necessary to detect vertical variations in gaseous pollutants, and these results were excluded from the study.

We found that values of the median infiltration efficiencies (Finf) for both BC and PM2.5 were especially high during the cool season (91%). Finf values were somewhat lower during the warm season (81% and 88% for PM2.5 and BC, respectively), and we found a significant negative correlation between air conditioning use and Finf. The Finf for a mechanically ventilated office building was 45% and 40% during the cool and warm seasons, respectively.

Dynamic exposure estimates were compared against home outdoor estimates. As expected, the addition of an indoor component decreased time-weighted exposure estimates, which were balanced out to some extent by the inclusion of transport microenvironments. Overall, mean time-weighted exposures for the full dynamic model were around 20% lower than home outdoor estimates.

Higher levels of exposures were found with working adults and students than for those neither in work nor study. This was due to the increased mobility of people going to work or school. The exposures to PM2.5, BC, and NO2 were, respectively, 13%, 39%, and 14% higher for people who were under age 18, compared with people who were 65 or older. Exposure estimates for the female population were approximately 4% lower.

The availability of an existing cohort data set of elderly Hong Kong residents (n = 66,820) facilitated the calculation and comparison of mortality risk estimates for the different exposure models.

Overall, results indicated that the application of exposure estimates that incorporated infiltration, vertical, and to a lesser extent, dynamic components resulted in higher hazard ratios (HRs) than the standard street-level model and increased the number of significant associations with all-natural-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

The results from the study provided the first evidence that considering air pollution exposure in a dynamic 3D landscape would benefit epidemiological studies. Higher HRs and a greater number of significant associations were found between mortality and pollutant exposures that would not have been found had standard 2D exposure models been used. Dynamic models can also identify differential exposures between population subtypes (e.g., students and working adults; those neither in work nor study).

Improved urban building design appears to be stimulating the dispersion of local TRAP in street canyons. Conversely, Finf values found in naturally ventilated buildings were high, and residences provided little protection from ambient air pollution.

We have demonstrated that the creation of effective advanced exposure models is possible in Asian cities without an undue burden on resources. We recommend that vertical exposure patterns be incorporated in future epidemiological studies in high-rise cities where the floor of residence is recorded in health record data.

Quantifying the Contribution to Uncertainty in Mortality Attributed to Household, Ambient, and Joint Exposure to PM2.5 From Residential Solid Fuel Use

While there have been substantial efforts to quantify the health burden of exposure to PM_2.5 from solid fuel use (SFU), the sensitivity of mortality estimates to uncertainties in input parameters has not been quantified. Moreover, previous studies separate mortality from household and ambient air pollution. In this study, we develop a new estimate of mortality attributable to SFU due to the joint exposure from household and ambient PM_2.5 pollution and perform a variance-based sensitivity analysis on mortality attributable to SFU. In the joint exposure calculation, we estimate 2.81 (95% confidence interval: 2.48-3.28) million premature deaths in 2015 attributed to PM_2.5 from SFU, which is 580,000 (18%) fewer deaths than would be calculated by summing separate household and ambient mortality calculations. Regarding the sources of uncertainties in these estimates, in China, India, and Latin America, we find that 53-56% of the uncertainty in mortality attributable to SFU is due to uncertainty in the percent of the population using solid fuels and 42-50% from the concentration-response function. In sub-Saharan Africa, baseline mortality rate (72%) and the concentration-response function (33%) dominate the uncertainty space. Conversely, the sum of the variance contributed by ambient and household PM_2.5 exposure ranges between 15 and 38% across all regions (the percentages do not sum to 100% as some uncertainty is shared between parameters). Our findings suggest that future studies should focus on more precise quantification of solid fuel use and the concentration-response relationship to PM_2.5, as well as mortality rates in Africa.

Residential greenness is differentially associated with childhood allergic rhinitis and aeroallergen sensitization in seven birth cohorts

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of allergic rhinitis is high, but the role of environmental factors remains unclear. We examined cohort-specific and combined associations of residential greenness with allergic rhinitis and aeroallergen sensitization based on individual data from Swedish (BAMSE), Australian (MACS), Dutch (PIAMA), Canadian (CAPPS and SAGE), and German (GINIplus and LISAplus) birth cohorts (n = 13 016).

METHODS

Allergic rhinitis (doctor diagnosis/symptoms) and aeroallergen sensitization were assessed in children aged 6-8 years in six cohorts and 10-12 years in five cohorts. Residential greenness was defined as the mean Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in a 500-m buffer around the home address at the time of health assessment. Cohort-specific associations per 0.2 unit increase in NDVI were assessed using logistic regression models and combined in a random-effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

Greenness in a 500-m buffer was positively associated with allergic rhinitis at 6-8 years in BAMSE (odds ratio = 1.42, 95% confidence interval [1.13, 1.79]) and GINI/LISA South (1.69 [1.19, 2.41]) but inversely associated in GINI/LISA North (0.61 [0.36, 1.01]) and PIAMA (0.67 [0.47, 0.95]). Effect estimates in CAPPS and SAGE were also conflicting but not significant (0.63 [0.32, 1.24] and 1.31 [0.81, 2.12], respectively). All meta-analyses were nonsignificant. Results were similar for aeroallergen sensitization at 6-8 years and both outcomes at 10-12 years. Stratification by NO2 concentrations, population density, an urban vs rural marker, and moving did not reveal consistent trends within subgroups.

CONCLUSION

Although residential greenness appears to be associated with childhood allergic rhinitis and aeroallergen sensitization, the effect direction varies by location.

Vasa praevia: risk-adapted modification of the conventional management--a retrospective study

PURPOSE

Undiagnosed vasa praevia carries an imminent risk of fetal death and increases with IVF. When diagnosed, the question arises as to whether the conventional prenatal management of routine steroid administration for fetal lung maturation and elective caesarean section in week 35 is generally justified in face of the risks involved. We present a retrospective study of a risk-adapted modification of the conventional management of vasa praevia.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We analysed 11 years of records involving 18 cases of antenatally diagnosed vasa praevia at our perinatal centre. Each case was managed by a risk-adapted modification of the conventional treatment where both, the steroid administration and the timing of delivery, were dependent on the patient history and clinical signs for preterm birth.

RESULTS

There were no lethal fetal, neonatal, or maternal complications. The earliest caesarean section took place at 34 weeks 1 day, the latest at 37 weeks 1 day, and in more than half of the cases at ≥ 36 weeks.

CONCLUSION

Steroid application is generally recommended for pregnancies before 34 weeks carrying a risk for preterm birth. Thus, retrospectively, none of our cases required steroid administration. This supports our protocol of not obligatorily administering steroids. Delaying the caesarean section up to two weeks beyond the conventionally recommended date of 35 weeks in 78% of our cases resulted in no complications. This justifies the suitability of determining the timing of delivery based on our individual patient assessment. In conclusion, the following recommendations for a risk-adapted management of vasa praevia can be made: 1. weekly evaluation of risk factors for preterm delivery; 2. steroid administration only at risk for preterm birth; 3. admission to hospital with full obstetric and neonatal care facilities between 32 and 34 weeks; 4. elective caesarean section between 35 and 37 weeks, risk-adapted.

Glutathione-S-transferase P1, early exposure to mould in relation to respiratory and allergic health outcomes in children from six birth cohorts. A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

There are conflicting study results regarding the association of exposure to visible mould and fungal components in house dust with respiratory and allergic diseases in children. It has been suggested that functional polymorphisms of the GSTP1 gene may influence the risk for allergic disorders through an impaired defence against oxidant injury.

METHODS

We examined in six birth cohorts of over 14 000 children whether the association between early exposure to reported mould at home in relation to respiratory and allergic diseases is modified by a single nucleotide polymorphism of the GSTP1 gene.

RESULTS

We observed a positive association of mould exposure with nasal symptoms (2-10 year) aOR: 1.19 (1.02-11.38). Further, there was a borderline significant increased risk of rhinoconjunctivitis (6-8 year) in children homozygous for the minor allele Val/Val, aOR: 1.25 (0.98-1.60). In stratified analyses, subjects homozygous for the minor allele and exposed to mould at home were at increased risk for early wheezing aOR: 1.34 (1.03-1.75), whereas the major allele may confer susceptibility for later nasal outcomes, (6-8 year) aOR: 1.20 (1.00-1.45) and (2-10 year) aOR: 1.30 (1.04-1.61), respectively. For none of the health outcomes studied, we found gene by environment interactions.

CONCLUSION

A genetic influence of the GSTP1 gene cannot be ruled out, but the magnitude of the effect is a matter of further research. In conclusion, the interplay between gene and environments is complex and remains subject of further study.

Combined exposure to dog and indoor pollution: incident asthma in a high-risk birth cohort

The impact of single exposures on asthma development is better understood than the effect of multiple exposures. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the effect of combined early exposure to dog allergen (Can-f1) plus indoor nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) or environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) on asthma and bronchial hyperreactivity (BHR) in a high-risk birth cohort. We also aimed to assess atopy's impact on the effects of these exposures. Peri-birth ETS exposure was measured using cord blood cotinine (CCot). During year 1, atopy, NO₂, Can-f1, and urinary cotinine (UCot) were measured. At 7 yrs of age, 380 children were assessed for asthma and BHR. Exposure effects were determined using stepwise multiple linear regression. Co-exposure to elevated Can-f1 and NO₂, or Can-f1 and ETS (CCot), increased risk for asthma, relative to having neither such exposure (OR 4.8 (95% CI 1.1-21.5) and 2.7 (1.1-7.1), respectively); similar risks resulted when substituting dog ownership for allergen. Atopy increased asthma and BHR risk associated with several exposures; notably, atopy with elevated UCot, relative to atopy without such exposure, increased risk of BHR (OR 3.1 (95% CI 1.1-8.6)). In a high-risk birth cohort, early co-exposure to Can-f1 and NO₂ or ETS increased the risk of incident asthma. Atopy increased the risk of asthma and BHR associated with ETS.

Correlation between co-exposures to noise and air pollution from traffic sources

BACKGROUND

Both air and noise pollution associated with motor vehicle traffic have been associated with cardiovascular disease. Similarities in pollution source and health outcome mean that there is potential for noise to confound studies of air pollution and cardiovascular disease, and vice versa, or for more complex interactions to occur.

METHODS

The correlations between 2-week average roadside concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)) and nitrogen oxides (NO(X)) and short term average noise levels (L(eq,5min)) for 103 urban sites with varying traffic, environment and infrastructure characteristics were examined.

RESULTS

The Pearson correlation coefficient for L(eq,5min) and NO(2) was 0.53, and for L(eq,5min) and NO(X) , 0.64. Factors influencing the degree of correlation were number of lanes on the closest road, number of cars or trucks during noise sampling and presence of a major intersection.

CONCLUSIONS

We recommend measurement of both pollutants in future studies of traffic-related pollution and cardiovascular disease to allow for more sophisticated analysis of this relationship.

Wood smoke exposure induces a pulmonary and systemic inflammatory response in firefighters

Epidemiological studies report an association between exposure to biomass smoke and cardiopulmonary morbidity. The mechanisms for this association are unclear. The aim of the present study was to characterise the acute pulmonary and systemic inflammatory effects of exposure to forest fire smoke. Seasonal forest firefighters (n = 52) were recruited before and/or after a day of fire-fighting. Exposure was assessed by questionnaires and measurement of carbon monoxide levels (used to estimate respirable particulate matter exposure). The pulmonary response was assessed by questionnaires, spirometry and sputum induction. Peripheral blood cell counts and inflammatory cytokines were measured to define the systemic response. Estimated respirable particulate matter exposure was high (peak levels >2 mg x m(-3)) during fire-fighting activities. Respiratory symptoms were reported by 65% of the firefighters. The percentage sputum granulocytes increased significantly from 6.5 to 10.9% following fire-fighting shifts, with concurrent increases in circulating white blood cells (5.55x10(9) to 7.06x10(9) cells x L(-1)) and band cells (0.11x10(9) to 0.16x10(9) cells x L(-1)). Serum interleukin (IL)-6, IL-8 and monocyte chemotactic protein-1 levels significantly increased following fire-fighting. There were no changes in band cells, IL-6, and IL-8 following strenuous physical exertion without fire-fighting. There was a significant association between changes in sputum macrophages containing phagocytosed particles and circulating band cells. In conclusion, acute exposure to air pollution from forest fire smoke elicits inflammation within the lungs, as well as a systemic inflammatory response.

From measures to models: an evaluation of air pollution exposure assessment for epidemiological studies of pregnant women

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate exposure estimation methods such as spatially resolved land-use regression models and ambient monitoring data in the context of epidemiological studies of the impact of air pollution on pregnancy outcomes.

METHODS

The study measured personal 48 h exposures (NO, NO(2), PM(2.5) mass and absorbance) and mobility (time activity and GPS) for 62 pregnant women during 2005-2006 in Vancouver, Canada, one to three times during pregnancy. Measurements were compared to modelled (using land-use regression and interpolation of ambient monitors) outdoor concentrations at subjects' home and work locations.

RESULTS

Personal NO and absorbance (ABS) measurements were moderately correlated (NO: r = 0.54, ABS: r = 0.29) with monitor interpolations and explained primarily within-subject (temporal) variability. Land-use regression estimates including work location improved correlations for NO over those based on home postal code (for NO: r = 0.49 changed to NO: r = 0.55) and explained more between-subject variance (4-20%); limiting to a subset of samples (n = 61) when subjects spent >65% time at home also improved correlations (NO: r = 0.72). Limitations of the GPS equipment precluded assessment of including complete GPS-based mobility information.

CONCLUSIONS

The study found moderate agreement between short-term personal measurements and estimates of ambient air pollution at home based on interpolation of ambient monitors and land-use regression. These results support the use of land-use regression models in epidemiological studies, as the ability of such models to characterise high resolution spatial variability is "reflected" in personal exposure measurements, especially when mobility is characterised.

Air pollution and development of asthma, allergy and infections in a birth cohort

Few studies have addressed associations between traffic-related air pollution and respiratory disease in young children. The present authors assessed the development of asthmatic/allergic symptoms and respiratory infections during the first 4 yrs of life in a birth cohort study (n = approximately 4,000). Outdoor concentrations of traffic-related air pollutants (nitrogen dioxide PM(2.5), particles with a 50% cut-off aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 mum and soot) were assigned to birthplace home addresses with a land-use regression model. They were linked by logistic regression to questionnaire data on doctor-diagnosed asthma, bronchitis, influenza and eczema and to self-reported wheeze, dry night-time cough, ear/nose/throat infections and skin rash. Total and specific immunoglobulin (Ig)E to common allergens were measured in a subgroup (n = 713). Adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) per interquartile pollution range were elevated for wheeze (1.2 (1.0-1.4) for soot), doctor-diagnosed asthma (1.3 (1.0-1.7)), ear/nose/throat infections (1.2 (1.0-1.3)) and flu/serious colds (1.2 (1.0-1.4)). No consistent associations were observed for other end-points. Positive associations between air pollution and specific sensitisation to common food allergens (1.6 (1.2-2.2) for soot), but not total IgE, were found in the subgroup with IgE measurements. Traffic-related pollution was associated with respiratory infections and some measures of asthma and allergy during the first 4 yrs of life.

Respiratorische Insuffizienz und pulmonale Fibrose als Spätfolge einer Chemotherapie - induziert durch Sauerstoffexposition

Pulmonary fibrosis (PF) may develop following successful chemotherapy for malignancy, even if such therapy is not combined with radiotherapy. Bleomycin, which is known to induce acute pneumonitis and lung fibrosis, is especially associated with chemotherapy-induced PF, and bleomycin-induced pulmonary fibrosis can occur more than five years after such therapy. Additionally, supplemental oxygen therapy can trigger the onset of pneumonitis and lethal PF in patients who have previously received bleomycin therapy. Careful assessment of lung function via spiroergometry and arterial blood gas analysis during exercise are required if the administration of supplemental oxygen is considered. Two case reports reveal the potential lethal risk of oxygen for patients who have been treated with bleomycin: (1) a patient with successfully resected and treated basal tongue carcinoma and (2) a patient in remission after being treated for non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Single and double lung transplantation is the only therapeutic option for patients with severe, oxygen-induced PF and should be included as an indication for lung transplantation. Early recognition of pulmonary diffusion abnormalities and establishing a risk profile, as well as consequent monitoring of pulmonary function, may help to avoid or at least reduce the risk of PF induced by oxygen therapy when administered to patients who have previously been given bleomycin.

Exposure to traffic related air pollutants: self reported traffic intensity versus GIS modelled exposure

BACKGROUND

In epidemiological studies of the potential health effects of traffic related air pollution, self reported traffic intensity is a commonly used, but rarely validated, exposure variable.

METHODS

As part of a study on the impact of Traffic Related Air Pollution on Childhood Asthma (TRAPCA), data from 2633 and 673 infants from the Dutch and the German-Munich cohorts, respectively, were available. Parents subjectively assessed traffic intensity at the home address. Objective exposures were estimated by a combination of spatial air pollution measurements and geographic information system (GIS) based modelling using an identical method for both cohorts.

RESULTS

The agreement rates between self reported and GIS modelled exposure--accumulated over the three strata of self assessed traffic intensity--were 55-58% for PM(2.5), filter absorbance (PM(2.5) abs), and nitrogen dioxide in Munich and 39-40% in the Netherlands. Of the self reported low traffic exposed group, 71-73% in Munich and 45-47% in the Netherlands had low modelled exposure to these three air pollutants. Of the self assessed high exposed subgroups in Munich (15% of the total population) and the Netherlands (22% of the total population), only 22-33% and 30-32% respectively had high modelled exposure to the three air pollutants. The subjective assessments tend to overestimate the modelled estimates for PM(2.5) and NO2 in both study areas. When analysis was restricted to the portion of the Dutch cohort living in non-urban areas, the agreement rates were even lower.

CONCLUSIONS

Self reported and modelled assessment of exposure to air pollutants are only weakly associated.

Zusammenhang zwischen Fruchtwasserinsulin im zweiten Trimenon, mütterlicher Glukosetoleranz und fetalen Fehlbildungen

INTRODUCTION

Maternal hyperglycemia during gestational diabetes leads to fetal hyperinsulinemia, which is associated with increased perinatal morbidity and mortality. Amniotic fluid insulin levels are therefore considered by some researchers to be ideal parameters to use in diagnosing gestational diabetes and making decisions about correct therapy. There are various recommendations about determining gestational diabetes early in pregnancy (< 24 weeks) by measuring amniotic fluid insulin. This study tests this association -- taking additional risk factors into account -- in a group of pregnant women who had genetic indications requesting for amniocentesis (AC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

All pregnant women who came to our clinic for genetically-determined amniocentesis from April 10, 1995 - Jan. 31, 2000 and who were between 12 and 24 weeks were included in our study. After a sample of amniotic fluid was taken, the laboratory performed a competitive radio-immuno-assay to determine the insulin concentration. O'Sullivan's cut-off values were used in diagnosing gestational diabetes. Since not all pregnant woman in our clinic were screened for gestational diabetes, we gathered our data retrospectively by checking all birth records; these were available in our clinic's data archive.

RESULTS

A total of 483 pregnant women were included in our study. 22 (4.6 %) of them were classified as gestational diabetics. The average value for amniotic fluid insulin was 1.21 mU/L +/- 0.89. The insulin values for the entire study population exhibited a weekly increase of 0.1 mU/L from the 12th through the 24th week. The insulin concentrations for the 22 gestational diabetics were not significantly higher than those of the non-diabetics (1.05 mU/L vs. 1.0 mU/L; p = 0.34). In the 90 (th) percentile and above of the amniotic fluid insulin levels (2.2 mU/L) for the entire study population, the rate of gestational diabetics was at 11.8 % three times that of the non-diabetics, at 3.7 % (p = 0.021). Among the risk factors for gestational diabetes, an increased body mass index (BMI) value correlated significantly with increased insulin concentration (p < 0.001). The patients at and above the 90th percentile also had significantly higher BMI values (p = 0.002). In the multivariate analysis, the following influences were determined to be significant: maternal body mass index (p < 0.001) and the gestational age (p < 0,001), not the mere diagnosis of "gestational diabetes". A significant association was not found between elevated insulin values in amniotic fluid and the child's birth weight, APGAR values, pH-levels and blood glucose values. However, a significant association was found regarding fetal malformations and chromosome abnormalities.

CONCLUSION

Even very low concentrations of insulin can be identified in amniotic fluid early in the pregnancy. The values increase during the course of the pregnancy. There is a positive correlation between maternal weight (BMI) and insulin levels in the amniotic fluid. Pregnant women with gestational diabetes have higher insulin levels in their amniotic fluid. The multivariant analysis shows, however, that this association can be traced to the maternal BMI and the time point during the pregnancy when the AC was performed. Malformations, especially those with a neural tube defect, are an additional cause for elevated insulin values in amniotic fluid.

A field comparison of four fungal aerosol sampling instruments: inter-sampler calibrations and caveats

Four bioaerosol samplers (Reuter Centrifugal, Andersen N6 Single Stage, Surface Air System Super 90, and Air-o-Cell) were used to take c. 300 side-by-side measurements at 75 public building sites. Regression models were developed to examine the relationships between each method pair. The models demonstrate that measurements from these instruments are not directly comparable, requiring inter-instrument calibration. Sampling location (indoor vs. outdoor) was a confounder in all the pairwise comparisons between samplers. In addition, the slopes of the relationships between all method pairs except one differed in indoor vs. outdoor locations. These results emphasize that direct comparisons between methods should not be undergone without prior calibration. Where measurement circumstances are similar to those of this study, the regression models might serve as a basis to convert measurements made with one instrument to those made with another. However, the robustness and generalizability of the models in different measurement settings needs to be assessed.

PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS

Many different bioaerosol sampling devices are in common use for indoor air quality studies. If data from research studies are to be compared, an approximation of the relationships between the equipment would be useful. A comparison of three culturable sampling devices (Andersen N6, SAS 90, RCS) and one particulate sampling device (Air-o-Cell) collecting simultaneous samples under field conditions showed high linear correlations between methods. However, while direct comparisons between sampling data were not possible, the regression models reported here explained 60-85% of the variance in fungal concentrations, and underscored the importance of the effect of environment on measurement.

A field comparison of four samplers for enumerating fungal aerosols I. Sampling characteristics

This study compared the performance of four bioaerosol samplers, the Reuter Centrifugal Air Sampler, the Andersen N6 single stage, the Surface Air System 90, and the Air-o-Cell, in measurements for airborne fungal propagules collected in 75 public building sites without prior knowledge of water damage or mold problems in British Columbia, Canada. The samplers had differences in detection limits, reproducibility, and overall yield. However, high and significant correlations between samplers (indoor samples: Pearson r = 0.60-0.85, P < 0.001) suggest that relative performances between samplers were reasonably consistent. These results indicate that fungal airborne concentration data are dependent on the methods used for assessment, and introduce additional variability in exposure assessment studies.

PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS

In the absence of a standard protocol for sampling bioaerosols, the interpretation of aerosol data reported in indoor air quality studies is entirely dependent on an appreciation of the sampling characteristics of commonly used instrumentation. Although a number of comparative studies have been undertaken in the laboratory, only a few studies have made reported comparison data under field conditions. This study compared three culturable sampling devices, the Andersen N6, SAS 90, and RCS, and one particulate sampling device, the Air-o-Cell, in offices and public areas in a variety of buildings, under conditions of forced air or natural ventilation. The concentrations of fungal aerosols collected during simultaneous sample collection were highly correlated, yet varied by orders of magnitude. The performance of these devices must be carefully considered before a standard protocol can be promulgated.

Der Einfluss von enteralem Naloxon auf die Inzidenz von Gastritis und Ösophagitis bei opioidbehandelten Intensivpatienten: Doppelblinde plazebokontrollierte Studie

BACKGROUND

Gastrtis and esophagitis are frequent and severe complications in intensive care patients, mainly caused by increased duodenogastral reflux. Opioids, commonly used in intensive care, are known to impair gastrointestinal (GI) motility which increases retrograd flow of gastric content. In a previous study, we showed that enteral administered naloxone reduces gastric reflux by selectively blocking GI opioid receptors. Therefore, in a subpopulation of these patients we studied the effect of enteral naloxone on the incidence of mucosal injury in opioid-treated, mechanically ventilated patients.

METHODS

After IRB approval, mechanically ventilated, fentanyl-treated patients without gastrointestinal surgery or diseases were assigned to receive 8 mg naloxone or placebo four times daily via a gastric tube. Additional inclusion criteria were opioid treatment for at least three days and endoscopy of the upper GI tract. Frequency of gastritis and esophagitis was quantified according to the Savary-Miller Score, and further parameter of GI motility (frequency of propulsive medication, amount of enteral feeding) were measured.

RESULTS

In four of seventeen patients of the naloxone group (24 %) and 14 of 22 patients of the placebo group (64 %; p = 0.02), esophageal or gastral mucosal injuries were detected. In the naloxone group, gastral reflux as well as need for propulsive medication were significantly lower. Volume of enteral feeding showed an increasing trend in the second half of the study.

CONCLUSION

Reduction of esophagogastral mucosal injury and reduced need for procinetic medication suggests an improvement of GI motility by enteral naloxone in fentanyl-treated, mechanically ventilated patients.

Point-of-sale glass bottle recycling: indoor airborne exposures and symptoms among employees

AIMS

To assess the impact of newly introduced point-of-sale glass bottle recycling on indoor air quality and employee health.

METHODS

Airborne exposures and both chronic and acute respiratory and somatic symptoms were surveyed among 226 employees at 36 randomly selected liquor stores with bottle recycling and in-house glass breaking. Each store was visited twice; between visits glass breaking was discontinued for one month in half the stores (selected at random), although bottles were still collected and stored on site. Rates of chronic symptoms were compared to an external, unexposed control population.

RESULTS

Geometric mean exposure levels were 0.18 mg/m3 for inhalable particulate matter and 3.6 EU/m3 for endotoxin (270 personal samples); 1064 CFU/m3 for viable fungi (648 area samples). Fungal levels were associated with visibly mouldy bottles being broken, outdoor fungal counts, and uncovered glass bins. Exposures were not altered by the intervention of shutting down glass breaking machinery. Compared to controls, employees reported more work related chronic chest tightness and chronic nasal symptoms. Acute chest symptoms were associated with breaking visibly mouldy bottles, but not with measured fungal counts. Inhalable particulate matter levels >0.2 mg/m3 were associated with acute upper airway irritation. Somatic symptoms were associated with measures of psychosocial job strain.

CONCLUSION

Results suggest that this type of recycling programme may generate fungal exposures sufficient to elicit upper airway and chest symptoms.

Wood smoke exposure and lung adenocarcinoma in non-smoking Mexican women

OBJECTIVE

To determine the association between long-term exposure to wood smoke from cooking and lung adenocarcinoma in non-smoking Mexican women.

METHODS

We reviewed records of hospitalized patients at a chest referral hospital in Mexico City and identified 113 histologically proven lung adenocarcinoma cases in non-smoking women. Four control groups of non-smoking women were also selected: 99 patients with pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB), 110 with interstitial lung disease (ILD), 64 with miscellaneous pulmonary conditions (MISC), and the three control groups combined (COMB) (n = 273).

RESULTS

Exposure was assessed on the basis of questionnaire responses at the time of hospital admission. Exposure to wood smoke for more than 50 years, but not for shorter periods, was associated with lung cancer after adjusting for age, education, socio-economic status and environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) exposure. Adjusted odds ratios from the multivariable logistic regression models were 1.4 (95%CI 0.6-2.0) for cases vs. TB controls, 1.9 (95%CI 0.9-4.0) for cases vs. ILD controls, 2.6 (95%CI 1.0-6.3) for cases vs. MISC controls and 1.9 (95%CI 1.1-3.5) for cases vs. COMB controls.

CONCLUSION

These findings suggest that long-term exposure to wood smoke from cooking may contribute to the development of lung cancer.

Secular trends in neonatal macrosomia in Berlin: influences of potential determinants

To investigate the trend in the prevalence of neonatal macrosomia and to evaluate the influences of potential determinants, key features of 206 308 hospital deliveries (97% of all) in Berlin in the years 1993-99, collected by the Berlin Medical Board, were analysed using SPSS 10.0. After exclusion of multiple births and preterm infants, there was a significant increase over 7 years (P < 0.01) in the prevalence of birthweights >or= 4000 g, maternal age >or= 30 years, height of >or= 165 cm, prepregnancy BMI (body mass index) >or= 26 kg/m2 and pregnancy weight gain> 16 kg, but no substantial trend in the prevalence of recognised diabetes or maternal smoking. The adjusted model (OR [95% CI]) for delivering a newborn >or= 4000 g was statistically significant for post-term delivery (2.56 [2.39, 2.75]), women aged >or= 30 years (1.06 [1.02-1.11]), >or= 165 cm tall (1.94 [1.87,2.01]), multiparae (1.98 [1.91, 2.05]), not smoking in pregnancy (2.03 [1.93, 2.14]), prepregnancy BMI >or= 26 compared with < 20 (4.01 [3.77, 4.26]), pregnancy weight gain >or= 16 kg compared with < 10 kg (3.37.[3.22, 3.53]) and for recognised diabetes (1.85.[1.69, 2.04]). It is speculated that this increase in the prevalence of neonatal macrosomia may contribute to the secular trend of overweight and obesity under affluent living conditions.

Amniotic fluid insulin levels and fetal abdominal circumference at time of amniocentesis in pregnancies with diabetes

AIMS

Fetal hyperinsulinism is a strong predictor for excessive growth and fetopathy in pregnancies complicated by diabetes. We examined (i). the relationship between measurements of amniotic fluid insulin (AF insulin) and fetal abdominal circumference (AC) at the time of amniocentesis, and (ii). whether there is a threshold for fetal AC percentiles which can identify low vs. high-risk levels of AF insulin without performing an amniocentesis.

METHODS

In a retrospective study, AF insulin from 121 pregnant diabetic women (32 pregestational; 89 gestational) was measured during the 3rd trimester as part of a diabetes management protocol. AC measurements were transformed into a continuous variable of percentile growth for gestational age (Hadlock). Division of the cohort according to deciles or quartiles of AC percentiles was performed to identify a threshold AC with a significant increase in elevated AF insulin, previously defined as AF insulin >or= 7 microU/ml. A receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve was created and the negative predictive value (NPV) of the determined threshold was calculated.

RESULTS

AF insulin levels were significantly correlated with the AC percentiles (r = 0.3, P = 0.0005) by linear regression. No AC threshold could reliably identify a moderate elevated AF insulin >or= 7 microU/ml (NPV 77.2%), but an AC threshold >or= 75th percentile could identify with fetal hyperinsulinism with an AF insulin >or= 16 microU/ml. All 10 cases of AF insulin >or= 16 microU/ml were identified with a NPV of 100% (74/74).

CONCLUSIONS

Our data indicate that an AC >or= 75th percentile determined by a 3rd trimester ultrasound examination may discriminate between pregnancies at low vs. high risk for AF insulin >or= 16 microU/ml. This AF insulin concentration corresponds to a level of hyperinsulinism reported to be associated with considerable neonatal and long term morbidity.

Exposure misclassification and threshold concentrations in time series analyses of air pollution health effects

Linear, no-threshold relationships are typically reported for time series studies of air pollution and mortality. Since regulatory standards and economic valuations typically assume some threshold level, we evaluated the fundamental question of the impact of exposure misclassification on the persistence of underlying personal-level thresholds when personal data are aggregated to the population level in the assessment of exposure-response relationships. As an example, we measured personal exposures to two particle metrics, PM2.5 and sulfate (SO4(2-)), for a sample of lung disease patients and compared these with exposures estimated from ambient measurements Previous work has shown that ambient:personal correlations for PM2.5 are much lower than for SO4(2-), suggesting that ambient PM2.5 measurements misclassify exposures to PM2.5. We then developed a method by which the measured:estimated exposure relationships for these patients were used to simulate personal exposures for a larger population and then to estimate individual-level mortality risks under different threshold assumptions. These individual risks were combined to obtain the population risk of death, thereby exhibiting the prominence (and the value) of the threshold in the relationship between risk and estimated exposure. Our results indicated that for poorly classified exposures (PM2.5 in this example) population-level thresholds were apparent at lower ambient concentrations than specified common personal thresholds, while for well-classified exposures (e.g., SO4(2-)), the apparent thresholds were similar to these underlying personal thresholds. These results demonstrate that surrogate metrics that are not highly correlated with personal exposures obscure the presence of thresholds in epidemiological studies of larger populations, while exposure indicators that are highly correlated with personal exposures can accurately reflect underlying personal thresholds.

Exposure of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients to particles: respiratory and cardiovascular health effects

To examine hypotheses regarding air pollution health effects, we conducted an exploratory study to evaluate relationships between personal and ambient concentrations of particles with measures of cardiopulmonary health in a sample of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Sixteen currently non-smoking COPD patients (mean age=74) residing in Vancouver were equipped with a particle (PM(2.5)) monitor for seven 24-h periods. Subjects underwent ambulatory heart monitoring, had their lung function and blood pressure (BP) measured, and recorded symptoms and medication use. Ambient PM(2.5), PM(10), sulfate, and gaseous pollutant concentrations were monitored at five sites within the study area. Although no associations between air pollution and lung function were statistically significant, an estimated effect of 3% and 1% declines in daily FEV(1) change (DeltaFEV(1)) for each 10 microg/m(3) increase in ambient PM(10) and PM(2.5), respectively, was observed. Increases of 1 microg/m(3) in personal or ambient sulfate were associated with 1.0% and 0.3% declines in DeltaFEV(1), respectively. Weak associations were observed between particle concentrations and increased supraventricular ectopic heartbeats and with decreased systolic BP. No consistent associations were observed between any particle metric and diastolic BP, heart rate, or heart rate variability (r-MSSD or SDNN), symptom severity, or bronchodilator use. Of the pollutants measured, ambient PM(10) was most consistently associated with health parameters; the use of personal exposures did not improve the strength of any associations or lead to increased effect estimates.

Increased F2 isoprostanes in the acute chest syndrome of sickle cell disease as a marker of oxidative stress

Nitric oxide metabolism is altered during the acute chest syndrome of sickle cell disease. In the presence of oxygen and oxygen-related molecules, nitric oxide can preferentially form the powerful oxidants nitrite, nitrate, and peroxynitrite. We hypothesized that increased oxidative stress may contribute to the pathogenesis of acute chest syndrome and measured F2 isoprostanes, a nonenzymatically generated molecule resulting from free radical catalyzed lipid peroxidation in patients with sickle cell disease in various stages of disease. Plasma samples were obtained from nineteen patients with sickle cell disease during acute chest syndrome (pre- and postexchange transfusion), vasoocclusive crisis, and/or at baseline; 12 normal volunteers served as controls. F2 isoprostanes were measured by gas chromatography/mass spectrophotometry. There was a 9-fold increase in F2 isoprostanes in patients with acute chest syndrome as compared with normal volunteers. There was approximately a 50-60% decline in isoprostanes postexchange transfusion to a level similar to that of patients with sickle cell disease at baseline. There was no difference in isoprostanes between vasoocclusive crisis and patients with sickle cell disease at baseline. Increased oxidative stress, measured by generation of F2 isoprostanes, occurs during acute chest syndrome and may have an important role in the pathogenesis of this disease process.

Air pollution and retained particles in the lung

Epidemiologic evidence associates particulate air pollution with cardiopulmonary morbidity and mortality. The biological mechanisms underlying these associations and the relationship between ambient levels and retained particles in the lung remain uncertain. We examined the parenchymal particle content of 11 autopsy lungs from never-smoking female residents of Mexico City, a region with high ambient particle levels [3-year mean PM(10) (particulate matter < or = 10 microm in aerodynamic diameter)= 66 microg/m(3)], and 11 control residents of Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, a region with relatively low levels (3-year mean PM(10) = 14 microg/m(3). Autopsy lungs were dissolved in bleach and particles were identified and counted by analytical electron microscopy. Total particle concentrations in the Mexico City lungs were significantly higher [geometric mean = 2,055 (geometric SD = 3.9) x 10(6) particles/g dry lung vs. 279 (1.8) x 10(6) particles/g dry lung] than in lungs from Vancouver residents. Lungs from Mexico City contained numerous chain-aggregated masses of ultrafine carbonaceous spheres, some of which contained sulfur, and aggregates of ultrafine aluminum silicate. These aggregates made up an average of 25% of the total particles by count in the lungs from Mexico City, but were only rarely seen in lungs from Vancouver. These observations indicate for the first time that residence in a region with high levels of ambient particles results in pulmonary retention of large quantities of fine and ultrafine particle aggregates, some of which appear to be combustion products.

The communication of social stereotypes: the effects of group discussion and information distribution on stereotypic appraisals

Stereotypes are fundamentally social constructs, formulated and modified through discussion and interaction with others. The present studies examined the impact of group discussion on stereotypes. In both studies, groups of participants discussed their impressions about a hypothetical target group after having read behaviors performed by target group members. These behaviors included both stereotypic and counterstereotypic examples, and the distribution of these behaviors varied across discussion group members. In some groups only 1 member knew of the counterstereotypic behaviors; in other groups this information was distributed across all group members. In general, discussion led to a polarization of the target group stereotypes, but this effect was lessened when the counterstereotypic behaviors were concentrated in 1 group member. In this case, these counterstereotypic behaviors were discussed more and retained better.

Air quality in postunification Erfurt, East Germany: associating changes in pollutant concentrations with changes in emissions

The unification of East and West Germany in 1990 resulted in sharp decreases in emissions of major air pollutants. This change in air quality has provided an opportunity for a natural experiment to evaluate the health impacts of air pollution. We evaluated airborne particle size distribution and gaseous co-pollutant data collected in Erfurt, Germany, throughout the 1990s and assessed the extent to which the observed changes are associated with changes in the two major emission sources: coal burning for power production and residential heating, and motor vehicles. Continuous data for sulfur dioxide, total suspended particulates (TSP), nitric oxide, carbon monoxide, and meteorologic parameters were available for 1990-1999, and size-selective particle number and mass concentration measurements were made during winters of 1991 and 1998. We used hourly profiles of pollutants and linear regression analyses, stratified by year, weekday/weekend, and hour, using NO and SO(2) as markers of traffic- and heating-related combustion sources, respectively, to study the patterns of various particle size fractions. Supplementary data on traffic and heating-related sources were gathered to support hypotheses linking these sources with observed changes in ambient air pollution levels. Substantially decreased (19-91%) concentrations were observed for all pollutants, with the exception of particles in the 0.01-0.03 microm size range (representing the smallest ultrafine particles that were measured). The number concentration for these particles increased by 115% between 1991 and 1998. The ratio of these ultrafine particles to TSP also increased by more than 500%, indicating a dramatic change in the size distribution of airborne particles. Analysis of hourly concentration patterns indicated that in 1991, concentrations of SO(2) and larger particle sizes were related to residential heating with coal. These peaks were no longer evident in 1998 due to decreases in coal consumption and consequent decreased emissions of SO(2) and larger particles. These decreases in coal combustion and the decreased concentrations of SO(2) and particles of larger size classes may have led to decreased particle scavenging and may be partially responsible for the observed increases in ultrafine particles. Traffic-related changes, such as increased numbers of trucks and increased use of diesel vehicles in Erfurt, were also associated with increased number concentrations of ultrafine particles. Morning particle peaks of all sizes were associated with NO and CO (markers for traffic) in both the 1991 and 1998 periods. There were significant differences in the ultrafine particle levels for morning hours between 1991 and 1998, suggesting that traffic was the cause of this increase.