Association between waterpipe smoking and lung cancer: a multicentre case-control study in Iran

OBJECTIVES

This study investigated the association between lung cancer and waterpipe smoking, which is an emerging global public health concern.

STUDY DESIGN

Multicentre case-control study.

METHODS

This study included 627 cases and 3477 controls from the Iranian Study of Opium and Cancer (IROPICAN) study, which was conducted between 2017 and 2020. One frequency-matched control for each lung cancer patient was selected by age, gender and residential place; however, this study used controls of four cancer types in the analyses. The multivariable logistic regression model estimated the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Additional analyses were performed among 181 lung cancer cases and 2141 controls who were not cigarette smokers or opium or nass/pipe users.

RESULTS

The odds of lung cancer were higher among waterpipe smokers than never-smokers (OR = 1.3, 95% CI: 1.0-1.7). Results showed a higher OR of lung cancer for those who smoked the waterpipe daily (OR = 2.1, 95% CI: 1.4-3.0), smoked more than two heads per day (OR = 2.7, 95% CI: 1.8-4.0), had smoked for >20 years (OR = 1.9, 95% CI: 1.3-2.7), smoked more than 20 head-years (OR = 2.8, 95% CI: 1.9-4.1) and initiated smoking before the age of 30 years (OR = 1.7, 95% CI: 1.1-2.5). The association was only statistically significant for squamous cell carcinomas (OR = 1.8, 95% CI 1.2-2.7). Furthermore, this study observed a higher OR of lung cancer among exclusive waterpipe smokers (OR = 2.3, 95% CI: 1.6, 3.5).

CONCLUSIONS

Waterpipe smoking was associated with an increased risk of lung cancer. The association was stronger with higher frequency, duration and intensity of exposure to waterpipe smoking. The association increases in exclusive waterpipe smokers, which is likely due to controlling for residual confounding by cigarette smoking and opium consumption, and higher exposure levels in this subpopulation.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2024 with focus on colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

We predicted cancer mortality figures for 2024 for the European Union (EU), its five most populous countries, and the UK. We focused on mortality from colorectal cancer (CRC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Based on cancer death certification and population data from the World Health Organization and Eurostat databases from 1970 until the most available year, we predicted deaths and age-standardized rates (ASRs) for 2024 for all cancers and the 10 most common cancer sites. We fitted a linear regression to the most recent trend segment identified by the joinpoint model. The number of avoided deaths since the peak in 1988-2024 was estimated for all cancers and CRC.

RESULTS

We predicted 1 270 800 cancer deaths for 2024 in the EU, corresponding to ASRs of 123.2/100 000 men (-6.5% versus 2018) and 79.0/100 000 women (-4.3%). Since 1988, about 6.2 million cancer deaths have been avoided in the EU and 1.3 million in the UK. Pancreatic cancer displayed unfavorable predicted rates for both sexes (+1.6% in men and +4.0% in women) and lung cancer for women (+0.3%). The focus on CRC showed falls in mortality at all ages in the EU, by 4.8% for men and 9.5% for women since 2018. The largest declines in CRC mortality are predicted among those 70+ years old. In the UK, projected ASRs for CRC at all ages are favorable for men (-3.4% versus 2018) but not for women (+0.3%). Below age 50 years, CRC mortality showed unfavorable trends in Italy and the UK, in Poland and Spain for men, and in Germany for women.

CONCLUSIONS

Predicted cancer mortality rates remain favorable in the EU and the UK, mainly in males due to earlier smoking cessation compared to females, underlining the persisting major role of tobacco on cancer mortality in Europe. Attention should be paid to the predicted increases in CRC mortality in young adults.

Occupational arsenic exposure and genitourinary cancer: systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Existing evidence suggests that ingestion of high doses of arsenic through drinking water is associated with an increased risk of genitourinary cancers, while systematic evidence on workers exposed to arsenic is lacking.

AIMS

The aim of this study is to systematically review the evidence on the association between occupational exposure to arsenic and genitourinary cancer risk and mortality.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was carried out on Pubmed, Web of Science and Embase by including cohort and case-control studies. Study-specific relative risks (RRs) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were pooled using Mandel-Paule random-effects model. Contour-enhanced funnel plot and Egger's test were used to assess the occurrence of publication bias.

RESULTS

A total of 17 studies were included in the meta-analysis, 7 on cancer incidence (n = 161,244 individuals) and 10 on cancer mortality (n = 91,868). Most of them were cohort (71%) and industry-based studies (59%). The meta-analysis failed to detect an increased risk of genitourinary cancers among workers exposed to arsenic, except for a suggestive but not significant positive association for bladder cancer incidence (RR: 1.26, 95% CI: 0.89, 1.80), although this estimate was based on only three studies. No compelling evidence of publication bias was found (P = 0.885).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings did not show an association between occupational exposure to arsenic and genitourinary cancers, although further high-quality studies with detailed exposure assessment at the individual level are needed to clarify this relationship.

EUROPEAN CANCER MORTALITY PREDICTIONS FOR THE YEAR 2023 WITH FOCUS ON LUNG CANCER

BACKGROUND

We aimed to predict cancer mortality figures for 2023 for the European Union (EU-27), its five most populous countries, and the UK. We focused on mortality from lung cancer.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Using cancer death certifications and population data from the World Health Organization and EUROSTAT databases for 1970-2018 we predicted numbers of deaths and age-standardized rates (ASR) for 2023 for all cancers combined and the ten most common cancer sites. We investigated the changes in trends over the observed period. The number of avoided deaths over the period 1989-2023 were estimated for all cancers as well as lung cancer.

RESULTS

We predicted 1,261,990 cancer deaths for 2023 in the EU-27, corresponding to ASRs of 123.8/100,000 men (-6.5% vs 2018) and 79.3 for women (-3.7%). Over 1989-2023, about 5,862,600 million cancer deaths were avoided in the EU-27 compared with peak rates in 1988. Most cancers displayed favourable predicted rates, with the exceptions of pancreatic cancer, that was stable in EU men (8.2/100,000) and rose 3.4% in EU women (5.9/100,000), and female lung cancer which however tends to level off (13.6/100,000). Steady declines are predicted for colorectal, breast prostate, leukemia, stomach in both sexes and male bladder cancers. The focus on lung cancer showed falls in mortality for all age groups in men. Female lung cancer mortality declined in the young -35.8% (ASR 0.8/100,000) and middle aged (-7%, ASR: 31.2/100,000) but still increased 10% in the elderly (65+ years).

CONCLUSION

The advancements in tobacco control are reflected in favorable lung cancer trends, and should be pushed further. Greater efforts on the control of overweight and obesity, alcohol consumption, infection and related neoplasms, together with improvements in screening, early diagnosis and treatments may achieve a further 35% reduction on cancer mortality in the EU by 2035.

The effect of BMI at cancer diagnosis on survival of patients with head and neck carcinoma

Background

Previous findings suggest a positive association between body mass index (BMI) and survival from head and neck cancer (HNC). The aim of this study is to investigate the prognostic role of BMI at the time of diagnosis in a large international cohort of HNC patients.

Methods

We performed a pooled analysis of studies included in the INHANCE consortium. Cases were adults with HNCs of the oral cavity, oropharynx, hypopharynx, and larynx. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the adjusted hazard ratios (HR) for overall survival and HNC-specific survival, by cancer site. Subgroups analyses were performed according to smoking status and duration of follow-up.

Results

The study included 10,177 patients from 10 studies worldwide with a median follow-up of 48 months; 3654 patients (35.9%) died from all causes, including 1202 (11.8%) from HNC. Underweight patients had lower overall survival (HR = 1.69, 95% CI: 1.31-2.19) respect to normal BMI patients (BMI=18.5-24.9 kg/m2) with consistent results across the HNC sites. In HNC-specific mortality analyses, the survival for underweight patients was not significant, except for underweight patients with oropharyngeal cancer (HR = 1.43, 95% CI: 1.11-1.83). Overweight and obese patients for oropharyngeal cancers had a favourable HNC-specific survival (HR = 0.50 (95% CI: 0.33-0.75) and HR = 0.51 (95% CI: 0.36-0.72), respectively). Among never smokers, overall BMI status was not associated with HNC-specific survival. Among ever smokers overweight and obese categories showed a favourable HNC-specific survival (HR = 0.69 (95% CI: 0.56-0.86) and HR = 0.70 (95% CI: 0.61-0.80)).

Conclusions

Our findings show that high BMI values increase the survival rates in smoking patients with HNC, suggesting that a nutritional reserve may help patients survive HNC cancer. This effect, however, may be partly explained by residual confounding, reverse causation, and collider stratification bias.

Key messages

• Our analysis reports the results of the largest available pooled analysis on the prognostic significance of BMI in the survival of 10,177 HNC patients from 10 studies worldwide.

• Lower overall survival was observed in underweight patients for all HNC sites and a lower HNC-specific survival was observed with oropharyngeal cancer. Adiposity could serve as a nutrient reserve.

The importance of evaluating specific myeloid malignancies in epidemiological studies of environmental carcinogens

INTRODUCTION

Although myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS), acute myeloid leukemia (AML), myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN) - including chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) - and myelodysplastic/myeloproliferative neoplasms (MDS/MPN) are largely clinically distinct myeloid malignancies, epidemiological studies rarely examine them separately and often combine them with lymphoid malignancies, limiting possible etiological interpretations for specific myeloid malignancies.

METHODS

We systematically evaluated the epidemiological literature on the four chemical agents (1,3-butadiene, formaldehyde, benzene, and tobacco smoking, excluding pharmaceutical, microbial and radioactive agents, and pesticides) classified by the International Agency for Research on Cancer as having sufficient epidemiological evidence to conclude that each causes "myeloid malignancies." Literature searches of IARC Monographs and PubMed identified 85 studies that we critically assessed, and for appropriate subsets, summarized results using meta-analysis.

RESULTS

Only two epidemiological studies on 1,3-butadiene were identified, but reported findings were inadequate to evaluate specific myeloid malignancies. Studies on formaldehyde reported results for AML and CML - and not for MDS or MPN - but reported no increased risks. For benzene, several specific myeloid malignancies were evaluated, with consistent associations reported with AML and MDS and mixed results for CML. Studies of tobacco smoking examined all major myeloid malignancies, demonstrating consistent relationships with AML, MDS and MPN, but not with CML.

CONCLUSIONS

Surprisingly few epidemiological studies present results for specific myeloid malignancies, and those identified were inconsistent across studies of the same exposure, as well as across chemical agents. This exercise illustrates that even for agents classified as having sufficient evidence of causing "myeloid malignancies," the epidemiological evidence for specific myeloid malignancies is generally limited and inconsistent. Future epidemiological studies should report findings for the specific myeloid malignancies, as combining them post hoc - where appropriate - always remains possible, whereas disaggregation may not. Furthermore, combining results across possibly discrete diseases reduces the chances of identifying important malignancy-specific causal associations.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2021 with focus on pancreatic and female lung cancer

BACKGROUND

We predicted cancer mortality statistics for 2021 for the European Union (EU) and its five most populous countries plus the UK. We also focused on pancreatic cancer and female lung cancer.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We obtained cancer death certifications and population data from the World Health Organization and Eurostat databases for 1970-2015. We predicted numbers of deaths and age-standardised (world population) rates for 2021 for total cancers and 10 major cancer sites, using a joinpoint regression model. We calculated the number of avoided deaths over the period 1989-2021.

RESULTS

We predicted 1 267 000 cancer deaths for 2021 in the EU, corresponding to age-standardised rates of 130.4/100 000 men (-6.6% since 2015) and 81.0/100 000 for women (-4.5%). We estimated further falls in male lung cancer rates, but still trending upward in women by +6.5%, reaching 14.5/100 000 in 2021. The breast cancer predicted rate in the EU was 13.3/100 000 (-7.8%). The rates for stomach and leukaemias in both sexes and for bladder in males are predicted to fall by >10%; trends for other cancer sites were also favourable, except for the pancreas, which showed stable patterns in both sexes, with predicted rates of 8.1/100 000 in men and 5.6/100 000 in women. Rates for pancreatic cancer in EU men aged 25-49 and 50-64 years declined, respectively, by 10% and 1.8%, while for those aged 65+ years increased by 1.3%. Rates fell for young women only (-3.4%). Over 1989-2021, about 5 million cancer deaths were avoided in the EU27 compared with peak rates in 1988.

CONCLUSION

Overall cancer mortality continues to fall in both sexes. However, specific focus is needed on pancreatic cancer, which shows a sizeable decline for young men only. Tobacco control remains a priority for the prevention of pancreatic and other tobacco-related cancers, which account for one-third of the total EU cancer deaths, especially in women, who showed less favourable trends.

Cancer mortality in the elderly in 11 countries worldwide, 1970-2015

BACKGROUND

Population ageing results in an increasing cancer burden in the elderly. We aimed to evaluate time-trends in cancer mortality for adults aged 65 and over for 17 major cancer types and all cancers combined in 11 countries worldwide over the period 1970-2015.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We obtained cancer death certification and population figures from the WHO and PAHO databases. We computed age-standardised (world standard population) rates for individuals aged 65 and over, and applied joinpoint regression models.

RESULTS

Age-standardised mortality rates for all cancers combined showed a heterogeneous, but widespread decline. Lung cancer mortality rates have been decreasing among men, and increasing among women. Pancreatic cancer had unfavourable trends in all countries for both sexes. Despite variability across countries, other tobacco-related cancers (except kidney) showed overall favourable trends, except in Poland and Russia. Age-standardised mortality rates from stomach cancer have been declining in all countries for both sexes. Colorectal mortality has been declining, except in Poland and Russia. Liver cancer mortality increased in all countries, except in Japan, France and Italy, which had the highest rates in the past. Breast cancer mortality decreased for most countries, except for Japan, Poland and Russia. Trends for age-standardised uterine cancer rates in the USA, Canada and the UK were increasing over the last decade. Ovarian cancer rates showed declines in most countries. With the exception of Russia, prostate cancer rates showed overall declines. Lymphoid neoplasms rates have been declining in both sexes, except in Poland and Russia.

CONCLUSION

Over the last decades, age-standardised cancer mortality in the elderly has been decreasing in major countries worldwide and for major cancer sites, with the major exception of lung and uterine cancer in women and liver, pancreatic and kidney cancers in both sexes. Cancer mortality for the elderly in central and eastern Europe remains comparatively high.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2020 with a focus on prostate cancer

BACKGROUND

Current cancer mortality figures are important for disease management and resource allocation. We estimated mortality counts and rates for 2020 in the European Union (EU) and for its six most populous countries.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We obtained cancer death certification and population data from the World Health Organization and Eurostat databases for 1970-2015. We estimated projections to 2020 for 10 major cancer sites plus all neoplasms and calculated the number of avoided deaths over 1989-2020.

RESULTS

Total cancer mortality rates in the EU are predicted to decline reaching 130.1/100 000 men (-5.4% since 2015) and 82.2 in women (-4.1%) in 2020. The predicted number of deaths will increase by 4.7% reaching 1 428 800 in 2020. In women, the upward lung cancer trend is predicted to continue with a rate in 2020 of 15.1/100 000 (higher than that for breast cancer, 13.5) while in men we predicted further falls. Pancreatic cancer rates are also increasing in women (+1.2%) but decreasing in men (-1.9%). In the EU, the prostate cancer predicted rate is 10.0/100 000, declining by 7.1% since 2015; decreases for this neoplasm are ∼8% at age 45-64, 14% at 65-74 and 75-84, and 6% at 85 and over. Poland is the only country with an increasing prostate cancer trend (+18%). Mortality rates for other cancers are predicted to decline further. Over 1989-2020, we estimated over 5 million avoided total cancer deaths and over 400 000 for prostate cancer.

CONCLUSION

Cancer mortality predictions for 2020 in the EU are favourable with a greater decline in men. The number of deaths continue to rise due to population ageing. Due to the persistent amount of predicted lung (and other tobacco-related) cancer deaths, tobacco control remains a public health priority, especially for women. Favourable trends for prostate cancer are largely attributable to continuing therapeutic improvements along with early diagnosis.

A prospective study of tea drinking temperature and risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Previous studies have reported an association between hot tea drinking and risk of esophageal cancer, but no study has examined this association using prospectively and objectively measured tea drinking temperature. We examined the association of tea drinking temperature, measured both objectively and subjectively at study baseline, with future risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) in a prospective study. We measured tea drinking temperature using validated methods and collected data on several other tea drinking habits and potential confounders of interest at baseline in the Golestan Cohort Study, a population-based prospective study of 50,045 individuals aged 40-75 years, established in 2004-2008 in northeastern Iran. Study participants were followed-up for a median duration of 10.1 years (505,865 person-years). During 2004-2017, 317 new cases of ESCC were identified. The objectively measured tea temperature (HR 1.41, 95% CI 1.10-1.81; for ≥60°C vs. <60°C), reported preference for very hot tea drinking (HR 2.41, 95% CI 1.27-4.56; for "very hot" vs. "cold/lukewarm"), and reported shorter time from pouring tea to drinking (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.01-2.26; for <2 vs. ≥6 min) were all associated with ESCC risk. In analysis of the combined effects of measured temperature and amount, compared to those who drank less than 700 ml of tea/day at <60°C, drinking 700 mL/day or more at a higher-temperature (≥60°C) was consistently associated with an about 90% increase in ESCC risk. Our results substantially strengthen the existing evidence supporting an association between hot beverage drinking and ESCC.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2018 with focus on colorectal cancer

Background

We projected cancer mortality statistics for 2018 for the European Union (EU) and its six more populous countries, using the most recent available data. We focused on colorectal cancer.

Materials and methods

We obtained cancer death certification data from stomach, colorectum, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus, ovary, prostate, bladder, leukaemia, and total cancers from the World Health Organisation database and projected population data from Eurostat. We derived figures for France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the UK, and the EU in 1970-2012. We predicted death numbers by age group and age-standardized (world population) rates for 2018 through joinpoint regression models.

Results

EU total cancer mortality rates are predicted to decline by 10.3% in men between 2012 and 2018, reaching a predicted rate of 128.9/100 000, and by 5.0% in women with a rate of 83.6. The predicted total number of cancer deaths is 1 382 000 when compared with 1 333 362 in 2012 (+3.6%). We confirmed a further fall in male lung cancer, but an unfavourable trend in females, with a rate of 14.7/100 000 for 2018 (13.9 in 2012, +5.8%) and 94 500 expected deaths, higher than the rate of 13.7 and 92 700 deaths from breast cancer. Colorectal cancer predicted rates are 15.8/100 000 men (-6.7%) and 9.2 in women (-7.5%); declines are expected in all age groups. Pancreatic cancer is stable in men, but in women it rose +2.8% since 2012. Ovarian, uterine and bladder cancer rates are predicted to decline further. In 2018 alone, about 392 300 cancer deaths were avoided compared with peak rates in the late 1980s.

Conclusion

We predicted continuing falls in mortality rates from major cancer sites in the EU and its major countries to 2018. Exceptions are pancreatic cancer and lung cancer in women. Improved treatment and-above age 50 years-organized screening may account for recent favourable colorectal cancer trends.

Oral bisphosphonate use and lung cancer incidence among postmenopausal women

Background

Bisphosphonates are common medications for the treatment of osteoporosis in older populations. Several studies, including the Women’s Health Initiative (WHI), have found inverse associations of bisphosphonate use with risk of breast and endometrial cancer, but little is known about its association with other common malignancies. The objective of this study was to evaluate the association of bisphosphonate use on the incidence of lung cancer in the WHI.

Patients and methods

The association between oral bisphosphonate use and lung cancer risk was examined in 151 432 postmenopausal women enrolled into the WHI in 1993–1998. At baseline and during follow-up, participants completed an inventory of regularly used medications including bisphosphonates.

Results

After a mean follow-up of 13.3 years, 2511 women were diagnosed with incident lung cancer. There was no evidence of a difference in lung cancer incidence between oral bisphosphonate users and never users (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.91; 95% confidence intervals, 0.80–1.04; P = 0.16). However, an inverse association was observed among those who were never smokers (hazard ratio = 0.57, 95% confidence interval, 0.39–0.84; P < 0.01).

Conclusion

In this large prospective cohort of postmenopausal women, oral bisphosphonate use was associated with significantly lower lung cancer risk among never smokers, suggesting bisphosphonates may have a protective effect against lung cancer. Additional studies are needed to confirm our findings.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2019 with focus on breast cancer

BACKGROUND

To overcome the lag with which cancer statistics become available, we predicted numbers of deaths and rates from all cancers and selected cancer sites for 2019 in the European Union (EU).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We retrieved cancer death certifications and population data from the World Health Organization and Eurostat databases for 1970-2014. We obtained estimates for 2019 with a linear regression on number of deaths over the most recent trend period identified by a logarithmic Poisson joinpoint regression model. We calculated the number of avoided deaths over the period 1989-2019.

RESULTS

We estimated about 1 410 000 cancer deaths in the EU for 2019, corresponding to age-standardized rates of 130.9/100 000 men (-5.9% since 2014) and 82.9 women (-3.6%). Lung cancer trends in women are predicted to increase 4.4% between 2014 and 2019, reaching a rate of 14.8. The projected rate for breast cancer was 13.4. Favourable trends for major neoplasms are predicted to continue, except for pancreatic cancer. Trends in breast cancer mortality were favourable in all six countries considered, except Poland. The falls were largest in women 50-69 (-16.4%), i.e. the age group covered by screening, but also seen at age 20-49 (-13.8%), while more modest at age 70-79 (-6.1%). As compared to the peak rate in 1988, over 5 million cancer deaths have been avoided in the EU over the 1989-2019 period. Of these, 440 000 were breast cancer deaths.

CONCLUSION

Between 2014 and 2019, cancer mortality will continue to fall in both sexes. Breast cancer rates will fall steadily, with about 35% decline in rates over the last three decades. This is likely due to reduced hormone replacement therapy use, improvements in screening, early diagnosis and treatment. Due to population ageing, however, the number of breast cancer deaths is not declining.

Head and neck cancer prevention: from primary prevention to impact of clinicians on reducing burden

Survival from head and neck cancers (HNCs) of the lip, oral cavity, pharynx, and larynx has increased by 10% over the past few decades. Little over half of patients who develop HNCs will survive beyond 5 years. Survival is lower for individuals in many countries where traditional risk factors such as tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, and betel quid chewing are highly prevalent but tertiary health care center access is limited or unavailable. Early diagnosis of HNC is the most important prognostic factor for each tumor site. Molecular-based research on HNC tumors holds promise for early stage detection, screening, vaccination, disease follow-up, and progression. Future investments for HNC control must consider both effectiveness and sustainability for both high- and low-resource countries alike, with priority toward risk factor prevention and earlier diagnosis.

Shared and Study-specific Dietary Patterns and Head and Neck Cancer Risk in an International Consortium

BACKGROUND

A few papers have considered reproducibility of a posteriori dietary patterns across populations, as well as pattern associations with head and neck cancer risk when multiple populations are available.

METHODS

We used individual-level pooled data from seven case-control studies (3844 cases; 6824 controls) participating in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology consortium. We simultaneously derived shared and study-specific a posteriori patterns with a novel approach called multi-study factor analysis applied to 23 nutrients. We derived odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for cancers of the oral cavity and pharynx combined, and larynx, from logistic regression models.

RESULTS

We identified three shared patterns that were reproducible across studies (75% variance explained): the Antioxidant vitamins and fiber (OR = 0.57, 95% CI = 0.41, 0.78, highest versus lowest score quintile) and the Fats (OR = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.67, 0.95) patterns were inversely associated with oral and pharyngeal cancer risk. The Animal products and cereals (OR = 1.5, 95% CI = 1.1, 2.1) and the Fats (OR = 1.8, 95% CI = 1.4, 2.3) patterns were positively associated with laryngeal cancer risk, whereas a linear inverse trend in laryngeal cancer risk was evident for the Antioxidant vitamins and fiber pattern. We also identified four additional study-specific patterns, one for each of the four US studies examined. We named them all as Dairy products and breakfast cereals, and two were associated with oral and pharyngeal cancer risk.

CONCLUSION

Multi-study factor analysis provides insight into pattern reproducibility and supports previous evidence on cross-country reproducibility of dietary patterns and on their association with head and neck cancer risk. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B430.

A historical cohort study on glycemic-control and cancer-risk among patients with diabetes

AIMS

This population-based historical cohort study examined whether poor glycemic-control (i.e., high glucose and HbA1c blood levels) in patients with diabetes is associated with cancer-risk.

METHODS

From a large healthcare database, patients aged 21-89 years, diagnosed with diabetes before January 2002 (prevalent) or during 2002-2010 (incident), were followed for cancer during 2004-2012 (excluding cancers diagnosed within the first 2 years since diabetes diagnosis). Risks of selected cancers (all-sites, colon, breast, lung, prostate, pancreas and liver) were estimated according to glycemic-control in a Cox regression model with time-dependent covariates, adjusted for age, sex, ethnic origin, socioeconomic status, smoking and parity. Missing glucose or HbA1c values were imputed.

RESULTS

Among 440,000 patients included in our analysis, cancer was detected more than 2 years after diabetes diagnosis in 26,887 patients (6%) during the follow-up period. Associations of poor glycemic-control with all-sites cancer and most specific cancers were either null or only weak (hazard ratios (HRs) for a 1% HbA1c or a 30 mg/dl glucose increase between 0.94 and 1.09). Exceptions were pancreatic cancer, for which there was a strong positive association (HRs: 1.26-1.51), and prostate cancer, for which there was a moderate negative association (HRs: 0.85-0.96).

CONCLUSION

Overall, poor glycemic-control appears to be only weakly associated with cancer-risk, if at all. A substantial part of the positive association with pancreatic cancer is attributable to reverse causation, with the cancer causing poorer glycemic-control prior to its diagnosis. The negative association with prostate cancer may be related to lower PSA levels in those with poor control.

National Study of Opium and Cancer in Iran (IROPICAN): Study Protocol and Results of the Pilot Phase

Background: Several epidemiologic studies have reported that opium consumption is associated with higher risk of cancer and may indeed cause cancer. However, most of these studies were not primarily designed to study the effect of opium on cancer. Therefore, control selection and data collections methods were not optimized for this purpose. Aim: We designed a large multicenter case-control study to specifically investigate the association between opium use and risk of 4 cancer types (i.e., lung, bladder, head and neck and colorectal cancers). We will recruit 800 cases and 800 controls for each cancer in this project. Methods: So far we have collected 70% of the cases and controls. We report here the study protocol and results of the pilot phase. Results: During the pilot phase, we determined that hospital visitors are the most appropriate type of controls; 185 cases and 176 controls were enrolled. Controls are matched to cases for sex, age and place of residence. Collection of data using a comprehensive questionnaire, focused on measuring use of opium and its derivatives, was feasible. Underreporting of opium was estimated to be 30% among controls. Collection of other data, including data tobacco and alcohol use, and nutritional data using a food frequency questionnaire, was feasible. Biologic samples including blood and saliva sample were collected from cancer cases and controls. Results of the pilot phase and validation study were used to optimize the full study protocol and questionnaires. Conclusion: The pilot phase of the study showed that the study is feasible, the best method of control selection is from hospital visitors, and both questionnaire and biologic samples can be collected. In addition of the results from pilot phase, preliminary results from the main phase of this study will be presented.

Mediterranean diet and hip fracture incidence among older adults: the CHANCES project

The association between adherence to Mediterranean diet (MD) and hip fracture incidence is not yet established. In a diverse population of elderly, increased adherence to MD was associated with lower hip fracture incidence. Except preventing major chronic diseases, adhering to MD might have additional benefits in lowering hip fracture risk.

INTRODUCTION

Hip fractures constitute a major public health problem among older adults. Latest evidence links adherence to Mediterranean diet (MD) with reduced hip fracture risk, but still more research is needed to elucidate this relationship. The potential association of adherence to MD with hip fracture incidence was explored among older adults.

METHODS

A total of 140,775 adults (116,176 women, 24,599 men) 60 years and older, from five cohorts from Europe and the USA, were followed-up for 1,896,219 person-years experiencing 5454 hip fractures. Diet was assessed at baseline by validated, cohort-specific, food-frequency questionnaires, and hip fractures were ascertained through patient registers or telephone interviews/questionnaires. Adherence to MD was evaluated by a scoring system on a 10-point scale modified to be applied also to non-Mediterranean populations. In order to evaluate the association between MD and hip fracture incidence, cohort-specific hazard ratios (HR), adjusted for potential confounders, were estimated using Cox proportional-hazards regression and pooled estimates were subsequently derived implementing random-effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

A two-point increase in the score was associated with a significant 4% decrease in hip fracture risk (pooled adjusted HR 0.96; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.92-0.99, p_{heterogeneity} = 0.446). In categorical analyses, hip fracture risk was lower among men and women with moderate (HR 0.93; 95% CI 0.87-0.99) and high (HR 0.94; 95% CI 0.87-1.01) adherence to the score compared with those with low adherence.

CONCLUSIONS

In this large sample of older adults from Europe and the USA, increased adherence to MD was associated with lower hip fracture incidence.

Incidence of Breast Cancer in Piedmont: 1979–1981

A population-based survey of histologically diagnosed breast cancer was carried out among residents in Piedmont. A total of 5267 incident cases occurring in 1979–1981 was collected, corresponding to an age-standardized (on the world population) incidence rate of 49.5/100,000 per year. Rates (standardized on the population of Piedmont in 1981) were highest in the city of Torino (112.4/100,000 per year) and lowest in the province of Cuneo (67.5), whereas in the other provinces they ranged between 85.3 and 90.0. Estimation of rates in the 54 Local Health Authorities of Piedmont detected up to 2-fold differences between adjacent areas. A correlation was found between rates and size of the population of town of residence. Comparison with age-specific incidence rates from the Cancer Registry of the nearby province of Varese suggested a loss of nonhistologically confirmed cases selectively in older age groups. The distribution of cases diagnosed in 1979 by histologic type is presented. The proportion of diagnoses reported in terms which were consistent with the 1978 WHO Histological Typing of Breast Tumours was 61.3%. It was highest among cases identified in Pathology Services located in University Hospitals and/or diagnosing more than 50 breast cancers per year.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2017, with focus on lung cancer

Background

We predicted cancer mortality figures in the European Union (EU) for the year 2017 using most recent available data, with a focus on lung cancer.

Materials and methods

We retrieved cancer death certification data and population figures from the World Health Organisation and Eurostat databases. Age-standardized (world standard population) rates were computed for France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the UK and the EU overall in 1970-2012. We obtained estimates for 2017 by implementing a joinpoint regression model.

Results

The predicted number of cancer deaths for 2017 in the EU is 1 373 500, compared with 1 333 400 in 2012 (+3%). Cancer mortality rates are predicted to decline in both sexes, reaching 131.8/100 000 men (-8.2% when compared with 2012) and 84.5/100 000 women (-3.6%). Mortality rates for all selected cancer sites are predicted to decline, except pancreatic cancer in both sexes and lung cancer in women. In men, pancreatic cancer rate is stable, in women it increases by 3.5%. Lung cancer mortality rate in women is predicted to rise to 14.6/100 000 in 2017 (+5.1% since 2012, corresponding to 92 300 predicted deaths), compared with 14.0/100 000 for breast cancer, corresponding to 92 600 predicted deaths. Only younger (25-44) women have favourable lung cancer trends, and rates at this age group are predicted to be similar in women (1.4/100 000) and men (1.2/100 000). In men lung cancer rates are predicted to decline by 10.7% since 2012, and falls are observed in all age groups.

Conclusion

European cancer mortality projections for 2017 confirm the overall downward trend in rates, with a stronger pattern in men. This is mainly due to different smoking prevalence trends in different generations of men and women. Lung cancer rates in young European women are comparable to those in men, confirming that smoking has the same impact on lung cancer in the two sexes.

Impact of prediagnostic smoking and smoking cessation on colorectal cancer prognosis: a meta-analysis of individual patient data from cohorts within the CHANCES consortium

Background

Smoking has been associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality in previous studies and might also be associated with prognosis after CRC diagnosis. However, current evidence on smoking in association with CRC prognosis is limited.

Patients and methods

For this individual patient data meta-analysis, sociodemographic and smoking behavior information of 12 414 incident CRC patients (median age at diagnosis: 64.3 years), recruited within 14 prospective cohort studies among previously cancer-free adults, was collected at baseline and harmonized across studies. Vital status and causes of death were collected for a mean follow-up time of 5.1 years following cancer diagnosis. Associations of smoking behavior with overall and CRC-specific survival were evaluated using Cox regression and standard meta-analysis methodology.

Results

A total of 5229 participants died, 3194 from CRC. Cox regression revealed significant associations between former [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.12; 95 % confidence interval (CI) = 1.04-1.20] and current smoking (HR = 1.29; 95% CI = 1.04-1.60) and poorer overall survival compared with never smoking. Compared with current smoking, smoking cessation was associated with improved overall (HR<10 years = 0.78; 95% CI = 0.69-0.88; HR≥10 years = 0.78; 95% CI = 0.63-0.97) and CRC-specific survival (HR≥10 years = 0.76; 95% CI = 0.67-0.85).

Conclusion

In this large meta-analysis including primary data of incident CRC patients from 14 prospective cohort studies on the association between smoking and CRC prognosis, former and current smoking were associated with poorer CRC prognosis compared with never smoking. Smoking cessation was associated with improved survival when compared with current smokers. Future studies should further quantify the benefits of nonsmoking, both for cancer prevention and for improving survival among CRC patients, in particular also in terms of treatment response.

Alcohol and cigarette consumption predict mortality in patients with head and neck cancer: a pooled analysis within the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology (INHANCE) Consortium

BACKGROUND

This study evaluated whether demographics, pre-diagnosis lifestyle habits and clinical data are associated with the overall survival (OS) and head and neck cancer (HNC)-specific survival in patients with HNC.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We conducted a pooled analysis, including 4759 HNC patients from five studies within the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology (INHANCE) Consortium. Cox proportional hazard ratios (HRs) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated including terms reported significantly associated with the survival in the univariate analysis.

RESULTS

Five-year OS was 51.4% for all HNC sites combined: 50.3% for oral cavity, 41.1% for oropharynx, 35.0% for hypopharynx and 63.9% for larynx. When we considered HNC-specific survival, 5-year survival rates were 57.4% for all HNC combined: 54.6% for oral cavity, 45.4% for oropharynx, 37.1% for hypopharynx and 72.3% for larynx. Older ages at diagnosis and advanced tumour staging were unfavourable predictors of OS and HNC-specific survival. In laryngeal cancer, low educational level was an unfavourable prognostic factor for OS (HR = 2.54, 95% CI 1.01-6.38, for high school or lower versus college graduate), and status and intensity of alcohol drinking were prognostic factors both of the OS (current drinkers HR = 1.73, 95% CI 1.16-2.58) and HNC-specific survival (current drinkers HR = 2.11, 95% CI 1.22-3.66). In oropharyngeal cancer, smoking status was an independent prognostic factors for OS. Smoking intensity (>20 cigarettes/day HR = 1.41, 95% CI 1.03-1.92) was also an independent prognostic factor for OS in patients with cancer of the oral cavity.

CONCLUSIONS

OS and HNC-specific survival differ among HNC sites. Pre-diagnosis cigarette smoking is a prognostic factor of the OS for patients with cancer of the oral cavity and oropharynx, whereas pre-diagnosis alcohol drinking is a prognostic factor of OS and HNC-specific survival for patients with cancer of the larynx. Low educational level is an unfavourable prognostic factor for OS in laryngeal cancer patients.

Excess mortality after hip fracture in elderly persons from Europe and the USA: the CHANCES project

BACKGROUND

Hip fractures are associated with diminished quality of life and survival especially amongst the elderly.

OBJECTIVE

All-cause mortality after hip fracture was investigated to assess its magnitude.

METHODS

A total of 122 808 participants from eight cohorts in Europe and the USA were followed up for a mean of 12.6 years, accumulating 4273 incident hip fractures and 27 999 deaths. Incident hip fractures were assessed through telephone interviews/questionnaires or national inpatient/fracture registries, and causes of death were verified with death certificates. Cox proportional hazards models and the time-dependent variable methodology were used to assess the association between hip fracture and mortality and its magnitude at different time intervals after the injury in each cohort. We obtained the effect estimates through a random-effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

Hip fracture was positively associated with increased all-cause mortality; the hazard ratio (HR) in the fully adjusted model was 2.12, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.76-2.57, after adjusting for potential confounders. This association was stronger amongst men [HR: 2.39, 95% CI: 1.72-3.31] than amongst women [HR: 1.92, 95% CI: 1.54-2.39], although this difference was not significant. Mortality was higher during the first year after the hip fracture [HR: 2.78, 95% CI: 2.12-3.64], but it remained elevated without major fluctuations after longer time since hip fracture [HR (95% CI): 1.89 (1.50-2.37) after 1-4 years; 2.15 (1.81-2.55) after 4-8 years; 1.79 (1.57-2.05) after 8 or more years].

CONCLUSION

In this large population-based sample of older persons across eight cohorts, hip fracture was associated with excess short- and long-term all-cause mortality in both sexes.

Dietary acrylamide and the risk of pancreatic cancer in the International Pancreatic Cancer Case-Control Consortium (PanC4)

Background

Occupational exposure to acrylamide was associated with excess mortality from pancreatic cancer, though in the absence of dose-risk relationship. Few epidemiological studies have examined the association between acrylamide from diet and pancreatic cancer risk.

Patients and methods

We considered this issue in a combined set of 1975 cases of pancreatic cancer and 4239 controls enrolled in six studies of the Pancreatic Cancer Case-Control Consortium (PanC4). We calculated pooled odds ratios (ORs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) by estimating study-specific ORs through multivariate unconditional logistic regression models and pooling the obtained estimates using random-effects models.

Results

Compared with the lowest level of estimated dietary acrylamide intake, the pooled ORs were 0.97 (95% CI, 0.79-1.19) for the second, 0.91 (95% CI, 0.71-1.16) for the third, and 0.92 (95% CI, 0.66-1.28) for the fourth (highest) quartile of intake. For an increase of 10 µg/day of acrylamide intake, the pooled OR was 0.96 (95% CI, 0.87-1.06), with heterogeneity between estimates (I2 = 67%). Results were similar across various subgroups, and were confirmed when using a one-stage modelling approach.

Conclusions

This PanC4 pooled-analysis found no association between dietary acrylamide and pancreatic cancer.

Central obesity increases risk of breast cancer irrespective of menopausal and hormonal receptor status in women of South Asian Ethnicity

BACKGROUND

Current evidence suggests that the relationship between obesity and breast cancer (BC) risk may vary between ethnic groups.

METHODS

A total of 1633 BC cases and 1504 controls were enrolled in hospital-based case-control study in Mumbai, India, from 2009 to 2013. Along with detailed questionnaire, we collected anthropometric measurements on all participants. We used unconditional logistic regression models to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for BC risk associated with anthropometry measurements, stratified on tumour subtype and menopausal status.

RESULTS

Waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) of ≥0.95 was strongly associated with risk of BC compared to WHR ≤0.84 in both premenopausal (OR = 4.3; 95% CI: 2.9-6.3) and postmenopausal women (OR = 3.4; 95% CI: 2.4-4.8) after adjustment for body mass index (BMI). Premenopausal women with a BMI ≥30 were at lower risk compared to women with normal BMI (OR = 0.5; 95% CI: 0.4-0.8). A similar protective effect was observed in women who were postmenopausal for <10 years (OR = 0.6; 95% CI: 0.4-0.9) but not in women who were postmenopausal for ≥10 years (OR = 1.8; 95% CI: 1.1-3.3). Overweight and obese women (BMI: 25-29.9 and ≥ 30 kg/m(2), respectively) were at increased BC risk irrespective of menopausal status if their WHR ≥0.95. Central obesity (measured in terms of WC and WHR) increased the risk of both premenopausal and postmenopausal BCs irrespective of hormone receptor (HR) status.

CONCLUSIONS

Central obesity appears to be a key risk factor for BC irrespective of menopausal or HR status in Indian women with no history of hormone replacement therapy.

The role of oral hygiene in head and neck cancer: results from International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology (INHANCE) consortium

BACKGROUND

Poor oral hygiene has been proposed to contribute to head and neck cancer (HNC) risk, although causality and independency of some indicators are uncertain. This study investigates the relationship of five oral hygiene indicators with incident HNCs.

METHODS

In a pooled analysis of 8925 HNC cases and 12 527 controls from 13 studies participating in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology Consortium, comparable data on good oral hygiene indicators were harmonized. These included: no denture wear, no gum disease (or bleeding), <5 missing teeth, tooth brushing at least daily, and visiting a dentist ≥once a year. Logistic regression was used to estimate the effects of each oral hygiene indicator and cumulative score on HNC risk, adjusting for tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption.

RESULTS

Inverse associations with any HNC, in the hypothesized direction, were observed for <5 missing teeth [odds ratio (OR) = 0.78; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.74, 0.82], annual dentist visit (OR = 0.82; 95% CI 0.78, 0.87), daily tooth brushing (OR = 0.83, 95% CI 0.79, 0.88), and no gum disease (OR = 0.94; 95% CI 0.89, 0.99), and no association was observed for wearing dentures. These associations were relatively consistent across specific cancer sites, especially for tooth brushing and dentist visits. The population attributable fraction for ≤ 2 out of 5 good oral hygiene indicators was 8.9% (95% CI 3.3%, 14%) for oral cavity cancer.

CONCLUSION

Good oral hygiene, as characterized by few missing teeth, annual dentist visits, and daily tooth brushing, may modestly reduce the risk of HNC.

Hypertension and mortality in the Golestan Cohort Study: A prospective study of 50 000 adults in Iran

High blood pressure has been the second most important determinant of disease burden in Iran since the 1990s. Despite well-recognized evidence on the association of high blood pressure and mortality in other countries, this relationship has not been fully investigated in the demographic setting of Iran. The current study is the first large-scale longitudinal study of this association in Iran. Briefly, 50 045 subjects between 40 and 75 years of age have been recruited and followed. Blood pressure measurements were carried out at baseline. Causes of death were reported and verified by verbal autopsy throughout the follow-up period. The outcomes of interest were all-cause deaths and deaths due to ischemic heart disease (IHD) or stroke. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs). A total of 46 674 subjects free from cardiovascular disease at baseline were analyzed. Absolute mortality rates increased along with increasing systolic or diastolic blood pressure above 120 and 80 mm Hg, respectively. Adjusted HRs (95% confidence intervals) for each 20 mm Hg increase in systolic blood pressure in all age groups were 1.18 (1.13-1.23) for all-cause mortality, 1.21 (1.13-1.31) for deaths due to IHD and 1.50 (1.39-1.63) for deaths due to stroke. Unadjusted and adjusted HRs were higher in younger subjects and decreased with increasing age of the participants. High blood pressure is a serious threat to the health of Iranians. The entire health-care system of Iran should be involved in a comprehensive action plan for controlling blood pressure.

Cancer mortality in cohorts of workers in the European rubber manufacturing industry first employed since 1975

BACKGROUND

Increased cancer risk has been reported among workers in the rubber manufacturing industry employed before the 1960s. It is unclear whether risk remains increased among workers hired subsequently. The present study focused on risk of cancer mortality for rubber workers first employed since 1975 in 64 factories.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Anonymized data from cohorts of rubber workers employed for at least 1 year from Germany, Italy, Poland, Sweden, and the UK were pooled. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs), based on country-specific death rates, were reported for bladder and lung cancer (primary outcomes of interest), for other selected cancer sites, and for cancer sites with a minimum of 10 deaths in men or women. Analyses stratified by type of industry, period, and duration of employment were carried out.

RESULTS

A total of 38 457 individuals (29 768 men; 8689 women) contributed to 949 370 person-years. No increased risk of bladder cancer was observed [SMR = 0.80, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.46; 1.38]. The risk of lung cancer death was reduced (SMR = 0.81, 95% CI 0.70; 0.94). No statistically significant increased risk was observed for any other cause of death. A reduced risk was evident for total cancer mortality (SMR = 0.81, 95% CI 0.76; 0.87). Risks were lower for workers in the tyre industry compared with workers in the general rubber goods sector. Analysis by employment duration showed a negative trend with SMRs decreasing with increasing duration of employment. In an analysis of secondary end points, when stratified by type of industry and period of first employment, excess risks of myeloma and gastric cancer were observed each due, essentially, to results from one centre.

CONCLUSION

No consistent increased risk of cancer death was observed among rubber workers first employed since 1975, no overall analysis of the pooled cohort produced significantly increased risk. Continued surveillance of the present cohorts is required to confirm the absence of long-term risk.

HbA1c levels in non-diabetic older adults - No J-shaped associations with primary cardiovascular events, cardiovascular and all-cause mortality after adjustment for confounders in a meta-analysis of individual participant data from six cohort studies

BACKGROUND

To determine the shape of the associations of HbA1c with mortality and cardiovascular outcomes in non-diabetic individuals and explore potential explanations.

METHODS

The associations of HbA1c with all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality and primary cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction or stroke) were assessed in non-diabetic subjects ≥50 years from six population-based cohort studies from Europe and the USA and meta-analyzed. Very low, low, intermediate and increased HbA1c were defined as <5.0, 5.0 to <5.5, 5.5 to <6.0 and 6.0 to <6.5% (equals <31, 31 to <37, 37 to <42 and 42 to <48 mmol/mol), respectively, and low HbA1c was used as reference in Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

Overall, 6,769 of 28,681 study participants died during a mean follow-up of 10.7 years, of whom 2,648 died of cardiovascular disease. Furthermore, 2,493 experienced a primary cardiovascular event. A linear association with primary cardiovascular events was observed. Adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors explained about 50% of the excess risk and attenuated hazard ratios (95 confidence interval) for increased HbA1c to 1.14 (1.03-1.27), 1.17 (1.00-1.37) and 1.19 (1.04-1.37) for all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality and cardiovascular events, respectively. The six cohorts yielded inconsistent results for the association of very low HbA1c levels with the mortality outcomes and the pooled effect estimates were not statistically significant. In one cohort with a pronounced J-shaped association of HbA1c levels with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality (NHANES), the following confounders of the association of very low HbA1c levels with mortality outcomes were identified: race/ethnicity; alcohol consumption; BMI; as well as biomarkers of iron deficiency anemia and liver function. Associations for very low HbA1c levels lost statistical significance in this cohort after adjusting for these confounders.

CONCLUSIONS

A linear association of HbA1c levels with primary cardiovascular events was observed. For cardiovascular and all-cause mortality, the observed small effect sizes at both the lower and upper end of HbA1c distribution do not support the notion of a J-shaped association of HbA1c levels because a certain degree of residual confounding needs to be considered in the interpretation of the results.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2016 with focus on leukaemias

BACKGROUND

Current cancer mortality statistics are important for public health decision-making and resource allocation. Age-standardized rates and numbers of deaths are predicted for 2016 in the European Union (EU).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Population and death certification data for stomach, colorectum, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus, prostate, leukaemias and total cancers were obtained from the World Health Organization database and Eurostat. Figures were derived for the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK. Projected numbers of deaths by age group were obtained for 2016 by linear regression on estimated numbers of deaths over the most recent time period identified by a joinpoint regression model.

RESULTS

Projected total cancer mortality trends for 2016 in the EU are favourable in both sexes with rates of 133.5/100 000 men and 85.2/100 000 women (8% and 3% falls since 2011) corresponding to 753 600 and 605 900 deaths in men and women for a total number of 1 359 500 projected cancer deaths (+3% compared with 2011, due to population ageing). In men, lung, colorectal and prostate cancer have fallen 11%, 5% and 8%, respectively, since 2011. Breast and colorectal cancer trends in women are favourable (8% and 7% falls, respectively), but lung and pancreatic cancer rates have risen 5% and 4% since 2011 reaching rates of 14.4 and 5.6/100 000 women. Leukaemias show favourable projected mortality for both sexes and all age groups, with stronger falls in the younger age groups. All ages rates are 4.0/100 000 men and 2.5/100 000 women, with falls of 14% and 12% respectively.

CONCLUSION

The 2016 predictions for EU cancer mortality confirm the favourable trends in rates particularly for men. Lung cancer is likely to be the leading site for female cancer rates. Continuing falls in mortality, larger in children and young adults, are predicted in leukaemias, essentially due to advancements in management and therapy, and their subsequent adoption across Europe.

The global decrease in cancer mortality: trends and disparities

BACKGROUND

A decrease in cancer mortality has been reported in the United States, Europe, and other high-income regions during the last two decades. Whether similar trends apply to low-to-middle income countries-and globally-is unclear.

DESIGN

The aim of this descriptive study is to compare cancer mortality in all countries with high- or intermediate-quality data on death certificates according to the World Health Organization (WHO) mortality database for the years 2000 through 2010. We included 60 countries in the analysis and calculated age-adjusted mortality rates for all cancer combined and for the commonest cancers worldwide: lung, stomach, breast, colorectal, uterine, and prostate.

RESULTS

A decrease in overall cancer mortality rate of ∼1% per year was observed in higher and lower income regions and in both sexes. In 2010, 696 000 cancer deaths were avoided on a global scale compared with 2000 rates (426 000 in men, 271 000 in women). However, the mortality of liver cancer in both sexes and lung cancer in females increased in many countries'.

CONCLUSIONS

The individual risk of dying from cancer decreased in all countries with reliable data. This decrease was chiefly due to favorable trends in the commonest specific cancers. Liver cancer in both sexes and lung cancer in women, which show increasing mortality rates, constitute a priority for prevention and further research.

Breastfeeding and breast cancer risk by receptor status--a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Breastfeeding is inversely associated with overall risk of breast cancer. This association may differ in breast cancer subtypes defined by receptor status, as they may reflect different mechanisms of carcinogenesis. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of case-control and prospective cohort studies to investigate the association between breastfeeding and breast cancer by estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR), and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) status.

DESIGN

We searched the PubMed and Scopus databases and bibliographies of pertinent articles to identify relevant articles and used random-effects models to calculate summary odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

This meta-analysis represents 27 distinct studies (8 cohort and 19 case-control), with a total of 36 881 breast cancer cases. Among parous women, the risk estimates for the association between ever (versus never) breastfeeding and the breast cancers negative for both ER and PR were similar in three cohort and three case-control studies when results were adjusted for several factors, including the number of full-term pregnancies (combined OR 0.90; 95% CI 0.82-0.99), with little heterogeneity and no indication of publication bias. In a subset of three adjusted studies that included ER, PR, and HER2 status, ever breastfeeding showed a stronger inverse association with triple-negative breast cancer (OR 0.78; 95% CI 0.66-0.91) among parous women. Overall, cohort studies showed no significant association between breastfeeding and ER+/PR+ or ER+ and/or PR+ breast cancers, although one and two studies (out of four and seven studies, respectively) showed an inverse association.

CONCLUSIONS

This meta-analysis showed a protective effect of ever breastfeeding against hormone receptor-negative breast cancers, which are more common in younger women and generally have a poorer prognosis than other subtypes of breast cancer. The association between breastfeeding and receptor-positive breast cancers needs more investigation.

Family history of cancer and the risk of squamous cell carcinoma of oesophagus: a case-control study in Kashmir, India

Background:

Only a few studies have examined the association between family history of cancer (FHC) and the risk of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) in high incidence areas of ESCC. We conducted a case–control study to evaluate the relationship between FHC and ESCC risk in Kashmir, India, with analysis of detailed epidemiological data and information on multiple gene polymorphisms.

Methods:

We collected detailed information on FHC and a number of socio-demographic and lifestyle factors, and also obtained blood samples for genetic analysis from 703 histopathologically confirmed ESCC cases and 1664 individually matched controls. Conditional logistic regression models were used to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs).

Results:

Participants who had FHC showed a strong association with ESCC risk, and the risk was stronger when first-degree relatives (FDRs) had FHC (OR=6.8; 95% CI=4.6–9.9). Having a sibling with a cancer showed the strongest association (OR=10.8; 95% CI=6.0–19.3), but having a child with a cancer was not associated with ESCC risk. A history of any cancer in the spouse was also associated with ESCC risk (OR=4.1; 95% CI=1.6–10.2). Those with two or more relatives with FHC were at a higher risk of ESCC. After restricting FHC to familial ESCC only, the above associations were strengthened, except when spouses were affected with ESCC (OR=2.5; 95% CI=0.7–8.9). When we examined the associations between several single-nucleotide polymorphisms and ESCC in those with and without FHC, the associations of variant genotypes in cytochrome P450 (CYP) 2C19 and CYP2D6 and the wild genotype of CYP2E1 with ESCC were much stronger in those with FHC. The FHC had an additive interaction with several risk factors of ESCC in this population.

Conclusion:

Our results showed that FHC was strongly associated with ESCC risk in Kashmir. It seems both genetic factors and shared environment are involved in this association.

Vitamin E intake from natural sources and head and neck cancer risk: a pooled analysis in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology consortium

BACKGROUND

Evidence for the possible effect of vitamin E on head and neck cancers (HNCs) is limited.

METHODS

We used individual-level pooled data from 10 case-control studies (5959 cases and 12 248 controls) participating in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology (INHANCE) consortium to assess the association between vitamin E intake from natural sources and cancer of the oral cavity/pharynx and larynx. Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using unconditional logistic regression models applied to quintile categories of non-alcohol energy-adjusted vitamin E intake.

RESULTS

Intake of vitamin E was inversely related to oral/pharyngeal cancer (OR for the fifth vs the first quintile category=0.59, 95% CI: 0.49-0.71; P for trend <0.001) and to laryngeal cancer (OR=0.67, 95% CI: 0.54-0.83, P for trend <0.001). There was, however, appreciable heterogeneity of the estimated effect across studies for oral/pharyngeal cancer. Inverse associations were generally observed for the anatomical subsites of oral and pharyngeal cancer and within covariate strata for both sites.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that greater vitamin E intake from foods may lower HNC risk, although we were not able to explain the heterogeneity observed across studies or rule out certain sources of bias.