Natural history of echocardiographic changes in atrial fibrillation: A case-controlled study of longitudinal remodeling

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) can be a cause and consequence of cardiac remodeling. The natural history of remodeling associated with AF is incompletely described.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to describe the frequency and timing of AF-associated echocardiographic changes.

METHODS

Patients within the Duke University Health System with ≥2 transthoracic echocardiograms (TTEs) performed between 2005 and 2018 were evaluated. Patients with AF and normal baseline TTEs were matched to patients without AF on year of TTE, age, and CHA2DS2-VASc score. Frequency and timing of changes in chamber size, ventricular function, mitral regurgitation, and all-cause mortality were compared over 5 years of follow-up.

RESULTS

The cohort included 3299 patients with AF at baseline and 7613 controls without AF. Normal baseline TTEs were acquired from 730 of patients with AF; 727 of these patients were matched to controls without AF. Patients with AF had higher rates of left atrial enlargement (hazard ratio [HR] 1.53; 95% confidence interval 1.27-1.85; P < .001), left ventricular (LV) systolic dysfunction (HR 1.80; 95% confidence interval 1.00-3.26; P = .045), LV diastolic dysfunction (HR 1.51; 95% confidence interval 1.08-2.10; P = .01), and moderate or greater mitral regurgitation (HR 2.09; 95% confidence interval 1.27-3.43; P = .003) than did controls. Atrial enlargement, systolic dysfunction, and mitral regurgitation surpassed the rates seen in controls within 6-12 months, whereas differences in diastolic dysfunction emerged at 24 months. There were no differences in ventricular sizes or mortality.

CONCLUSION

AF is associated with higher rates of left atrial enlargement, LV systolic and diastolic dysfunction, and mitral regurgitation that typically manifest within 6-24 months of diagnosis. The natural history of cardiac remodeling in patients with AF may inform treatment decisions and facilitate patient-tailored care.

Morbidity and Mortality Associated With Heart Failure in Acute Coronary Syndrome: A Pooled Analysis of 4 Clinical Trials

BACKGROUND

Heart failure (HF) may complicate acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and is associated with a high burden of short- and long-term morbidity and mortality. Only limited data regarding future ischemic events and rehospitalization are available for patients who suffer HF before or during ACS.

METHODS

A secondary analysis of 4 large ACS trials (PLATO, APPRAISE-2, TRACER, and TRILOGY ACS) using Cox proportional hazards models was performed to investigate the association of HF status (no HF, chronic HF, de novo HF) at presentation for ACS with all-cause and cardiovascular death, major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE ), myocardial infarction, stroke, and hospitalization for heart failure (HHF) by 1 year. Cumulative incidence plots are presented at 30 days and 1 year.

RESULTS

A total of 11.1% of the 47,474 patients presenting with ACS presented with evidence of acute HF, 55.0% of whom presented with de novo HF. Patients with chronic HF presented with evidence of acute HF at a higher rate than those with no previous HF (40.3% vs 6.9%). Compared to those without HF, those with chronic and de novo HF had higher rates of all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2.01, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.72-2.34 and aHR 1.47, 95% CI1.15-1.88, respectively), MACE (aHR 1.47, 95% CI1.31-1-.66 and aHR 1.38, 95% CI1.12-1.69), and HHF (aHR 2.29, 95% CI2.02-2.61 and aHR 1.48, 95% CI 1.20-1.82) at 1 year.

CONCLUSION

In this large cohort of patients with ACS, both prior and de novo HF complicating ACS were associated with significantly higher risk-adjusted rates of death, ischemic events and HHF at 30 days and 1 year. Further studies examining the association between HF and outcomes in this high-risk population are warranted, especially given the advent of more contemporary HF therapies.

Deferred Testing in Stable Outpatients With Suspected Coronary Artery Disease: A Prespecified Secondary Analysis of the PRECISE Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

Guidelines recommend deferral of testing for symptomatic people with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD) and low pretest probability. To our knowledge, no randomized trial has prospectively evaluated such a strategy.

Objective

To assess process of care and health outcomes in people identified as minimal risk for CAD when testing is deferred.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This randomized, pragmatic effectiveness trial included prespecified subgroup analysis of the PRECISE trial at 65 North American and European sites. Participants identified as minimal risk by the validated PROMISE minimal risk score (PMRS) were included.

Intervention

Randomization to a precision strategy using the PMRS to assign those with minimal risk to deferred testing and others to coronary computed tomography angiography with selective computed tomography-derived fractional flow reserve, or to usual testing (stress testing or catheterization with PMRS masked). Randomization was stratified by PMRS risk.

Main Outcome

Composite of all-cause death, nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI), or catheterization without obstructive CAD through 12 months.

Results

Among 2103 participants, 422 were identified as minimal risk (20%) and randomized to deferred testing (n = 214) or usual testing (n = 208). Mean age (SD) was 46 (8.6) years; 304 were women (72%). During follow-up, 138 of those randomized to deferred testing never had testing (64%), whereas 76 had a downstream test (36%) (at median [IQR] 48 [15-78] days) for worsening (30%), uncontrolled (10%), or new symptoms (6%), or changing clinician preference (19%) or participant preference (10%). Results were normal for 96% of these tests. The primary end point occurred in 2 deferred testing (0.9%) and 13 usual testing participants (6.3%) (hazard ratio, 0.15; 95% CI, 0.03-0.66; P = .01). No death or MI was observed in the deferred testing participants, while 1 noncardiovascular death and 1 MI occurred in the usual testing group. Two participants (0.9%) had catheterizations without obstructive CAD in the deferred testing group and 12 (5.8%) with usual testing (P = .02). At baseline, 70% of participants had frequent angina and there was similar reduction of frequent angina to less than 20% at 12 months in both groups.

Conclusion and Relevance

In symptomatic participants with suspected CAD, identification of minimal risk by the PMRS guided a strategy of initially deferred testing. The strategy was safe with no observed adverse outcome events, fewer catheterizations without obstructive CAD, and similar symptom relief compared with usual testing.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03702244.

Effect of Torsemide Versus Furosemide on Symptoms and Quality of Life Among Patients Hospitalized for Heart Failure: The TRANSFORM-HF Randomized Clinical Trial

BACKGROUND

Loop diuretics are a primary therapy for the symptomatic treatment of heart failure (HF), but whether torsemide improves patient symptoms and quality of life better than furosemide remains unknown. As prespecified secondary end points, the TRANSFORM-HF trial (Torsemide Comparison With Furosemide for Management of Heart Failure) compared the effect of torsemide versus furosemide on patient-reported outcomes among patients with HF.

METHODS

TRANSFORM-HF was an open-label, pragmatic, randomized trial of 2859 patients hospitalized for HF (regardless of ejection fraction) across 60 hospitals in the United States. Patients were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to a loop diuretic strategy of torsemide or furosemide with investigator-selected dosage. This report examined effects on prespecified secondary end points, which included Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire Clinical Summary Score (KCCQ-CSS; assessed as adjusted mean difference in change from baseline; range, 0-100 with 100 indicating best health status; clinically important difference, ≥5 points) and Patient Health Questionnaire-2 (range, 0-6; score ≥3 supporting evaluation for depression) over 12 months.

RESULTS

Baseline data were available for 2787 (97.5%) patients for KCCQ-CSS and 2624 (91.8%) patients for Patient Health Questionnaire-2. Median (interquartile range) baseline KCCQ-CSS was 42 (27-60) in the torsemide group and 40 (24-59) in the furosemide group. At 12 months, there was no significant difference between torsemide and furosemide in change from baseline in KCCQ-CSS (adjusted mean difference, 0.06 [95% CI, -2.26 to 2.37]; P=0.96) or the proportion of patients with Patient Health Questionnaire-2 score ≥3 (15.1% versus 13.2%: P=0.34). Results for KCCQ-CSS were similar at 1 month (adjusted mean difference, 1.36 [95% CI, -0.64 to 3.36]; P=0.18) and 6-month follow-up (adjusted mean difference, -0.37 [95% CI, -2.52 to 1.78]; P=0.73), and across subgroups by ejection fraction phenotype, New York Heart Association class at randomization, and loop diuretic agent before hospitalization. Irrespective of baseline KCCQ-CSS tertile, there was no significant difference between torsemide and furosemide on change in KCCQ-CSS, all-cause mortality, or all-cause hospitalization.

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients discharged after hospitalization for HF, a strategy of torsemide compared with furosemide did not improve symptoms or quality of life over 12 months. The effects of torsemide and furosemide on patient-reported outcomes were similar regardless of ejection fraction, previous loop diuretic use, and baseline health status.

REGISTRATION

URL: https://www.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov; Unique identifier: NCT03296813.

Echocardiographic Features Beyond Ejection Fraction and Associated Outcomes in Patients With Heart Failure With Mildly Reduced or Preserved Ejection Fraction

BACKGROUND

Heart failure (HF) guidelines recommend assessment of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) to classify patients and guide therapy implementation. However, LVEF alone may be insufficient to adequately characterize patients with HF, especially those with mildly reduced or preserved LVEF. Recommendations on additional testing are lacking, and there are limited data on use of echocardiographic features beyond LVEF in patients with heart failure with mildly reduced or preserved LVEF.

METHODS

In patients with HF with mildly reduced or preserved LVEF identified in a large US health care system, the association of the following metrics with mortality was evaluated: LV global longitudinal strain (LV GLS>-16), left atrial volume index (>28 mL/m²), left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH), and E/e´>13 and e´<9. A multivariable model for mortality was constructed including age, sex, and key comorbidities followed by stepwise selection of echocardiographic features. Characteristics and outcomes of subgroups with normal versus abnormal LV GLS and LVEF were evaluated.

RESULTS

Among 2337 patients with complete echocardiographic data assessed between 2017 and 2020, the following features were associated with all-cause mortality on univariate analysis over 3 years of follow-up: E/e´+e´, LV GLS, left atrial volume index (all P<0.01). In the multivariable model (C-index=0.65), only abnormal LV GLS was independently associated with all-cause mortality (HR, 1.35 [95% CI, 1.11-1.63]; P=0.002). Among patients with LVEF>55%, 498/1255 (40%) demonstrated abnormal LV GLS. Regardless of specific LVEF, patients with abnormal LV GLS demonstrated a higher burden of multiple comorbidities and higher event rates compared with patients with normal LV GLS.

CONCLUSIONS

In a large, real-world HF with mildly reduced or preserved LVEF population, echocardiographic features, led by LV GLS, were associated with adverse outcomes irrespective of LVEF. A large proportion of patients demonstrate adverse myocardial function by LV GLS despite preserved LVEF and may represent a key cohort of interest for HF medical therapies and future clinical studies.

Association of Acute Kidney Injury and Cardiovascular Disease Following Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: Assessment of Interactions by Race, Diabetes, and Kidney Function

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE

Black patients and those with diabetes or reduced kidney function experience a disproportionate burden of acute kidney injury (AKI) and cardiovascular events. However, whether these factors modify the association between AKI and cardiovascular events following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is unknown and was the focus of this study.

STUDY DESIGN

Observational cohort.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

Patients who underwent PCI at Duke between January 1, 2003, and December 31, 2013, with data available in the Duke Databank for Cardiovascular Disease.

EXPOSURES

AKI, defined as ≥1.5-fold relative elevation in serum creatinine within seven days from a reference value ascertained 30 days before PCI, or a 0.3 mg/dl increase from the reference value within 48 hours.

OUTCOMES

A composite of all-cause death, myocardial infarction, stroke, or revascularization during the first year following PCI.

ANALYTIC APPROACH

Cox regression models adjusted for potential confounders, and with interaction terms between AKI and race, diabetes, or baseline eGFR.

RESULTS

Among 9422 patients, 9% (n=865) developed AKI and the primary composite outcome occurred in 21% (n=2017). AKI was associated with a nearly 2-fold higher risk of the primary outcome (adjusted hazards ratio [HR], 1.94; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.71 to 2.20). The association between AKI and cardiovascular risk did not significantly differ by race (P-interaction, 0.4), diabetes, (P-interaction, 0.06) or eGFR (P-interaction, 0.2). However, Black race and severely reduced eGFR, but not diabetes, each had a cumulative impact with AKI on risk for the primary outcome. Compared with White patients with no AKI as the reference, the risk for the outcome was highest in Black patients with AKI (HR, 2.27; 95% CI, 1.83 to 2.82), followed by White patients with AKI (HR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.58 to 2.21), and least in patients of other races with AKI (HR, 1.48; 95% CI, 0.88 to 2.48).

LIMITATIONS

Residual confounding, including the impact of clinical care following PCI on cardiovascular outcomes of AKI.

CONCLUSIONS

Neither race, diabetes, nor reduced eGFR potentiated the association of AKI with cardiovascular risk, but Black patients with AKI had a qualitatively greater risk than White patients with AKI or patients of other races with AKI.

Trends of blood pressure control in the U.S. during the COVID-19 pandemic

Importance

COVID-19 altered lifestyles and disrupted routine health care. Whether blood pressure (BP) control worsened during COVID-19 is unknown.

Objective

To understand whether home BP control worsened during COVID-19 across the United States (US) .

Design, Setting, and Participants

A population-based analysis of home BP data from 72,706 participants enrolled in a digital health hypertension control program. Data was compared before (January 2019 to March 2020) and during (April 2020 to August 2020) COVID-19.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Monthly mean home BP readings, systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), and mean arterial pressure (MAP) were quantified before and during the pandemic. Multivariable adjustments were made for age, sex, race, region, and months enrolled. Home BP readings were also classified based on monthly averages and highest home BP readings into risk groups: Stage 2 HTN: BP> = 135 or DBP> = 85; Uncontrolled HTN: SBP> = 145 or DBP> = 95; or Severely uncontrolled HTN: SBP> = 160 or DBP> = 100).

Results

Overall, 72,706 participants were enrolled in a digital health hypertension program between 1/1/2019 and 8/31/2020. Compared with participants pre-COVID-19 (n = 33,440), those during COVID-19 (n = 39,266) were of similar age (mean 53.0 ± 10.7 years vs 53.3 ± 10.8 years); sex (46% vs 50.6% female) and race (29.1% vs 34.2% non-white). Relative to pre-Covid (Apr-Aug 2019) the mean monthly number of home BP readings rose during COVID-19 (Apr-Aug, 2020), from 7.3 to 9.3 per month (P < .001). During COVID-19, participants had higher monthly adjusted mean SBP (131.6 mmHg vs. 127.5 mmHg, P < .001); DBP (80.2 mmHg vs. 79.2 mmHg, P < .001); and MAP (97.4 mmHg vs. 95.3 mmHg; P < .001). Relative to the pre-pandemic period, during COVID-19 the proportion of participants with a mean monthly BP classified as uncontrolled or severely uncontrolled hypertension also rose, 15% vs 19% and 4% vs 5%, respectively

Conclusions and Relevance

Based on home BP readings, mean monthly BP rose modestly after COVID-19, despite increased utilization of home monitoring. Further studies are needed to examine the longitudinal effects of the pandemic on cardiovascular disease risk factors, the impact of these on long-term population health.

Clinical trajectory of patients with a worsening heart failure event and reduced ventricular ejection fraction

BACKGROUND

Recent data suggest that patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and worsening heart failure (WHF) have potential for greater benefit from newer HF therapies. We investigated characteristics and outcomes of patients with HFrEF and WHF by severity of left ventricular dysfunction.

METHODS

We identified patients with chronic symptomatic HFrEF (left ventricular ejection fraction [LVEF] ≤35%) and evidence of WHF (emergency department visit or hospitalization for acute HF within 12 months of index echocardiogram) treated at Duke University between 1/2009 and 12/2018. Patients were stratified by LVEF≤25% or 26% to35%. Cox models were used to estimate cause-specific hazard ratios and 5-year event incidence of death and hospitalization across the range of LVEF.

RESULTS

Of 2823 patients with HFrEF and WHF, 1620 (57.4%) had an LVEF≤25% and 1203 (42.6%) had an LVEF 26% to35%. Compared to patients with LVEF 26% to35%, those with LVEF≤25% were younger and more commonly men with a lower cardiovascular comorbidity burden. Patients with LVEF≤25% were less commonly on beta blockers (85.9% vs 90.5%) but more commonly treated with mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (49.3% vs 41.1%) and implantable defibrillators (41.3% vs 28.2%). Patients with LVEF≤25% had significantly higher hazards for death (HR 1.24 [95% CI 1.11 - 1.38]), all-cause hospitalization (HR 1.21 [95% CI 1.10 - 1.33]), and HF hospitalization (HR 1.25 [95% CI 1.1 - 1.38]) through 5-years.

CONCLUSIONS

More than half of patients with chronic HFrEF and WHF have severe LV dysfunction. Important differences in comorbidities, HF therapies, and outcomes exist between those with LVEF≤25% and those with LVEF 26% to35%.

Polypharmacy in Palliative Care for Advanced Heart Failure: The PAL-HF Experience

BACKGROUND

Palliative care (PC) in advanced heart failure (HF) aims to improve symptoms and quality of life (QOL), in part through medication management. The impact of PC on polypharmacy (>5 medications) remains unknown.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We explored patterns of polypharmacy in the Palliative Care in HF (PAL-HF) randomized controlled trial of standard care vs interdisciplinary PC in advanced HF (N = 150). We describe differences in medication counts between arms at 2, 6, 12, and 24 weeks for HF (12 classes) and PC (6 classes) medications. General linear mixed models were used to evaluate associations between treatment arm and polypharmacy over time. The median age of the patients was 72 years (interquartile range 62-80 years), 47% were female, and 41% were Black. Overall, 48% had ischemic etiology, and 55% had an ejection fraction of 40% or less. Polypharmacy was present at baseline in 100% of patients. HF and PC medication counts increased in both arms, with no significant differences in counts by drug class at any time point between arms.

CONCLUSIONS

In a trial of patients with advanced HF considered eligible for PC, polypharmacy was universal at baseline and increased during follow-up with no effect of the palliative intervention on medication counts relative to standard care.

Predicting major adverse limb events in individuals with type 2 diabetes: Insights from the EXSCEL trial

AIMS

Although models exist to predict amputation among people with type 2 diabetes with foot ulceration or infection, we aimed to develop a prediction model for a broader range of major adverse limb events (MALE)-including gangrene, revascularization and amputation-among individuals with type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

In a post-hoc analysis of data from the Exenatide Study of Cardiovascular Event Lowering (EXSCEL) trial, we compared participants who experienced MALE with those who did not. A multivariable model was constructed and translated into a risk score.

RESULTS

Among the 14,752 participants with type 2 diabetes in EXSCEL, 3.6% experienced MALE. Characteristics associated with increased risk of MALE were peripheral artery disease (PAD) (HR_adj 4.83, 95% CI: 3.94-5.92), prior foot ulcer (HR_adj 2.16, 95% CI: 1.63-2.87), prior amputation (HR_adj 2.00, 95% CI: 1.53-2.64), current smoking (HR_adj 2.00, 95% CI: 1.54-2.61), insulin use (HR_adj 1.86, 95% CI: 1.52-2.27), coronary artery disease (HR_adj 1.67, 95% CI: 1.38-2.03) and male sex (HR_adj 1.64, 95% CI: 1.31-2.06). Cerebrovascular disease, former smoking, age, glycated haemoglobin, race and neuropathy were also associated significantly with MALE after adjustment. A risk score ranging from 6 to 96 points was constructed, with a C-statistic of 0.822 (95% CI: 0.803-0.841).

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of MALE occurred among participants with PAD, but participants without a history of PAD also experienced MALE. A risk score with good performance was generated. Although it requires validation in an external dataset, this risk score may be valuable in identifying patients requiring more intensive care and closer follow-up.

Racial Differences in AKI Incidence Following Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

BACKGROUND

Undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is a risk factor for AKI development, but few studies have quantified racial differences in AKI incidence after this procedure.

METHODS

We examined the association of self-reported race (Black, White, or other) and baseline eGFR with AKI incidence among patients who underwent PCI at Duke University Medical Center between January 1, 2003, and December 31, 2013. We defined AKI as a 0.3 mg/dl absolute increase in serum creatinine within 48 hours, or ≥1.5-fold relative elevation within 7 days post-PCI from the reference value ascertained within 30 days before PCI.

RESULTS

Of 9422 patients in the analytic cohort (median age 63 years; 33% female; 75% White, 20% Black, 5% other race), 9% developed AKI overall (14% of Black, 8% of White, 10% of others). After adjustment for demographics, socioeconomic status, comorbidities, predisposing medications, PCI indication, periprocedural AKI prophylaxis, and PCI procedural characteristics, Black race was associated with increased odds for incident AKI compared with White race (odds ratio [OR], 1.79; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.48 to 2.15). Compared with Whites, odds for incident AKI were not significantly higher in other patients (OR, 1.30; 95% CI, 0.93 to 1.83). Low baseline eGFR was associated with graded, higher odds of AKI incidence (P value for trend <0.001); however, there was no interaction between race and baseline eGFR on odds for incident AKI (P value for interaction = 0.75).

CONCLUSIONS

Black patients had greater odds of developing AKI after PCI compared with White patients. Future investigations should identify factors, including multiple domains of social determinants, that predispose Black individuals to disparate AKI risk after PCI.

Risk Factor Burden and Long-Term Prognosis of Patients With Premature Coronary Artery Disease

Background Coronary artery disease (CAD) is increasing among young adults. We aimed to describe the cardiovascular risk factors and long-term prognosis of premature CAD. Methods and Results Using the Duke Databank for Cardiovascular Disease, we evaluated 3655 patients admitted between 1995 and 2013 with a first diagnosis of obstructive CAD before the age of 50 years. Major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs), defined as the composite of death, myocardial infarction, stroke, or revascularization, were ascertained for up to 10 years. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to assess associations with the rate of first recurrent event, and negative binomial log-linear regression was used for rate of multiple event recurrences. Past or current smoking was the most frequent cardiovascular factor (60.8%), followed by hypertension (52.8%) and family history of CAD (39.8%). Within a 10-year follow-up, 52.9% of patients had at least 1 MACE, 18.6% had at least 2 recurrent MACEs, and 7.9% had at least 3 recurrent MACEs, with death occurring in 20.9% of patients. Across follow-up, 31.7% to 37.2% of patients continued smoking, 81.7% to 89.3% had low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels beyond the goal of 70 mg/dL, and 16% had new-onset diabetes mellitus. Female sex, diabetes mellitus, chronic kidney disease, multivessel disease, and chronic inflammatory disease were factors associated with recurrent MACEs. Conclusions Premature CAD is an aggressive disease with frequent ischemic recurrences and premature death. Individuals with premature CAD have a high proportion of modifiable cardiovascular risk factors, but failure to control them is frequently observed.

Claims-based cardiovascular outcome identification for clinical research: Results from 7 large randomized cardiovascular clinical trials

BACKGROUND

Medicare insurance claims may provide an efficient means to ascertain follow-up of older participants in clinical research. We sought to determine the accuracy and completeness of claims- versus site-based follow-up with clinical event committee (+CEC) adjudication of cardiovascular outcomes.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective study using linked Medicare and Duke Database of Clinical Trials data. Medicare claims were linked to clinical data from 7 randomized cardiovascular clinical trials. Of 52,476 trial participants, linking resulted in 5,839 (of 10,497 linkage-eligible) Medicare-linked trial participants with fee-for-service A and B coverage. Death, myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and revascularization incidences were compared using Medicare inpatient claims only, site-reported events (+CEC) only, or a combination of the 2. Randomized treatment effects were compared as a function of whether claims-based, site-based (+CEC), or a combined system was used for event detection.

RESULTS

Among the 5,839 study participants, the annual event rates were similar between claims- and site-based (+CEC) follow-up: death (overall rate 5.2% vs 5.2%; adjusted κ 0.99), MI (2.2% vs 2.3%; adjusted κ 0.96), stroke (0.7% vs 0.7%; adjusted κ 0.99), and any revascularization (7.4% vs 7.9%; adjusted κ 0.95). Of events detected by claims yet not reported by CEC, a minority were reported by sites but negatively adjudicated by CEC (39% of MIs and 18% of strokes). Differences in individual case concordance led to higher event rates when claims- and site-based (+CEC) systems were combined. Randomized treatment effects were similar among the 3 approaches for each outcome of interest.

CONCLUSIONS

Claims- versus site-based (+CEC) follow-up identified similar overall cardiovascular event rates despite meaningful differences in the events detected. Randomized treatment effects were similar using the 2 methods, suggesting claims data could be used to support clinical research leveraging routinely collected data. This approach may lead to more effective evidence generation, synthesis, and appraisal of medical products and inform the strategic approaches toward the National Evaluation System for Health Technology.

Stroke Outcomes With Vorapaxar Versus Placebo in Patients With Acute Coronary Syndromes: Insights From the TRACER Trial

Background

Vorapaxar, a protease‐activated receptor‐1 antagonist, is approved for secondary prevention of cardiovascular events but is associated with increased intracranial hemorrhage.

Methods and Results

TRACER (Thrombin Receptor Antagonist for Clinical Event Reduction in Acute Coronary Syndrome) was a trial of vorapaxar versus placebo among patients with acute coronary syndrome. Strokes were adjudicated by a central events committee. Of 12 944 patients, 199 (1.5%) had ≥1 stroke during the study period (median follow‐up, 477 days). Four patients had a single stroke of unknown type; 195 patients had ≥1 stroke classified as hemorrhagic or nonhemorrhagic (165 nonhemorrhagic, 28 hemorrhagic, and 2 both). Strokes occurred in 96 of 6473 patients (1.5%) assigned vorapaxar and 103 of 6471 patients (1.6%) assigned placebo. Kaplan‐Meier incidence of stroke for vorapaxar versus placebo was higher for hemorrhagic stroke (0.45% versus 0.14% [hazard ratio, 2.74; 95% confidence interval, 1.22–6.15]), lower but not significantly different for nonhemorrhagic stroke (1.53% versus 1.98% at 2 years [hazard ratio, 0.79; 95% confidence interval, 0.58–1.07]), and similar for stroke overall (1.93% versus 2.13% at 2 years [hazard ratio, 0.94; 95% confidence interval, 0.71–1.24]).

Conclusions

Stroke occurred in <2% of patients. Vorapaxar‐assigned patients had increased hemorrhagic stroke but a nonsignificant trend toward lower nonhemorrhagic stroke. Overall stroke frequency was similar with vorapaxar versus placebo.

Prognostic and Practical Validation of Current Definitions of Myocardial Infarction Associated With Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

OBJECTIVES

In 13,038 patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome undergoing index percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in the EARLY ACS (Early Glycoprotein IIb/IIIa Inhibition in Non-ST-Segment Elevation Acute Coronary Syndrome) and TRACER (Thrombin Receptor Antagonist for Clinical Event Reduction in Acute Coronary Syndrome) trials, the relationship between PCI-related myocardial infarction (MI) and 1-year mortality was assessed.

BACKGROUND

The definition of PCI-related MI is controversial. The third universal definition of PCI-related MI requires cardiac troponin >5 times the 99th percentile of the normal reference limit from a stable or falling baseline and PCI-related clinical or angiographic complications. The definition from the Society for Cardiovascular Angiography and Interventions (SCAI) requires creatine kinase-MB elevation >10 times the upper limit of normal (or 5 times if new electrocardiographic Q waves are present). Implications of these definitions on prognosis, prevalence, and implementation are not established.

METHODS

In our cohort of patients undergoing PCI, PCI-related MIs were classified using the third universal type 4a MI definition and SCAI criteria. In the subgroup of patients included in the angiographic core laboratory (ACL) substudy of EARLY ACS (n = 1,401) local investigator- versus ACL-reported angiographic complications were compared.

RESULTS

Altogether, 2.0% of patients met third universal definition of PCI-related MI criteria, and 1.2% met SCAI criteria. One-year mortality was 3.3% with the third universal definition (hazard ratio: 1.96; 95% confidence interval: 1.24 to 3.10) and 5.3% with SCAI criteria (hazard ratio: 2.79; 95% confidence interval: 1.69 to 4.58; p < 0.001). Agreement between ACL and local investigators in detecting angiographic complications during PCI was overall moderate (κ = 0.53).

CONCLUSIONS

The third universal definition of MI and the SCAI definition were both associated with significant risk for mortality at 1 year. Suboptimal concordance was observed between ACL and local investigators in identifying patients with PCI complications detected on angiography. (Trial to Assess the Effects of Vorapaxar [SCH 530348; MK-5348] in Preventing Heart Attack and Stroke in Participants With Acute Coronary Syndrome [TRA·CER] [Study P04736]; NCT00527943; EARLY ACS: Early Glycoprotein IIb/IIIa Inhibition in Patients With Non-ST-Segment Elevation Acute Coronary Syndrome [Study P03684AM2]; NCT00089895).

Peripheral blood metabolite profiles associated with new onset atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Peripheral blood metabolite profiles have yielded mechanistic insights into various cardiovascular disease states. We hypothesized that peripheral blood metabolite profiles would be associated with new onset atrial fibrillation (AF).

METHODS AND RESULTS

The study population comprised 1892 patients without AF at baseline, who, as part the MURDOCK Cardiovascular Disease Study molecular profiling cohort (n = 2023), had previously had determination of levels of 69 metabolites from frozen, fasting plasma specimens obtained during coronary angiography. We used Cox proportional hazards models to examine the association of 13 uncorrelated metabolite factors created from these data using principal components analysis (PCA) with new occurrences of AF during a median follow up of 2.8 (0.1-4.9) years. A total of 233 patients developed new AF (12.3%) during follow up. Patients with new onset AF were older (median 67 vs. 60 years); more often white (82 vs. 71%) and male (68 vs. 60%), and had more comorbidities than those who did not develop AF. After adjustment, PCA factor 1 (medium chain acylcarnitines; hazard ratio [HR]: 1.11 [1.01-1.22]), factor 2 (short chain dicarboxylacylcarnitines; HR: 1.21 [1.09-1.34]) and factor 5 (long chain acylcarnitines; HR: 1.19 [1.06-1.34]) were associated with new onset AF.

CONCLUSION

Metabolite profiles were associated with new onset AF among patients referred for coronary angiography. Validation of these observations in broader patient populations may provide better mechanistic insight into the development of AF, and may provide new opportunities for prevention and treatment.

Association of Gout With Long-Term Cardiovascular Outcomes Among Patients With Obstructive Coronary Artery Disease

Background Epidemiological studies demonstrating a relationship between gout and cardiovascular disease are older and predate modern cardiovascular preventive therapy. We assessed the contemporary association between gout and cardiovascular disease in patients with obstructive coronary artery disease. Methods and Results Data were from the Duke Databank for Cardiovascular Diseases, which followed up patients undergoing cardiac catheterization with obstructive coronary artery disease at Duke University Medical Center (1998-2013). We assessed the relationship between gout diagnosis at baseline or during follow-up and the primary composite outcome of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke, adjusting for differences in baseline clinical factors. Secondary end points included cardiovascular death and all-cause mortality. New, postbaseline, gout diagnosis was included as a time-dependent covariate. Among 17 201 patients, 1406 (8.2%) had baseline gout and a high burden of cardiovascular risk factors, but high rates of optimal medical therapy. Over a median follow-up of 6.4 years, gout diagnosis at time of catheterization was not associated with the primary outcome (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval], 1.05 [0.96-1.15]; P=0.31) or cardiovascular death (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval], 1.10 [0.99-1.22]; P=0.08), but was associated with increased all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval], 1.13 [1.05-1.23]; P=0.002). After including new, postbaseline, gout diagnosis, the instantaneous risk of the primary outcome was significantly associated with prior gout diagnosis (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval], 1.15 [1.07-1.25]; P=0.0004). Conclusions A clinical history of gout is associated with worse outcomes in a contemporary population of patients with obstructive coronary artery disease. This increased risk exists despite high levels of optimal baseline cardiovascular disease medical therapy, suggesting that residual cardiovascular risk is not addressed by standard medical therapy.

Safety of ticagrelor in patients with baseline conduction abnormalities: A PLATO (Study of Platelet Inhibition and Patient Outcomes) analysis

BACKGROUND

Although bradyarrhythmias have been observed with ticagrelor and its use with advanced atrioventricular block is not recommended, questions arise regarding its use in patients with mild conduction abnormalities. The objectives were to compare rates of clinically relevant arrhythmias in relation to any mild baseline conduction abnormality in patients with acute coronary syndrome randomized to ticagrelor versus clopidogrel.

METHODS

We included all subjects in the electrocardiographic (ECG) substudy of the Platelet Inhibition and Patient Outcomes trial, excluding those with missing baseline ECG or with a pacemaker at baseline (N = 15,460). Conduction abnormality was defined as sinus bradycardia, first-degree atrioventricular block, hemiblock, or bundle-branch block. The primary arrhythmic outcome was the composite of any symptomatic brady- or tachyarrhythmia, permanent pacemaker placement, or cardiac arrest through 12 months.

RESULTS

Patients with baseline conduction abnormalities (n = 4,256, 27.5%) were older and more likely to experience the primary arrhythmic outcome. There were no differences by ticagrelor versus clopidogrel in the composite arrhythmic end point in those with baseline conduction disease (1-year cumulative incidence rate: 17% for both study arms; hazard ratio: 0.99 [0.86-1.15]) or without baseline conduction disease (1-year cumulative incidence rate: clopidogrel 12.8% vs ticagrelor 12.4%; hazard ratio: 0.98 (0.88-1.09). There were also no statistically significant differences between ticagrelor and clopidogrel in the rates of bradycardic (or any individual arrhythmic) events in patients with baseline conduction abnormalities.

CONCLUSIONS

Ticagrelor compared to clopidogrel did not increase arrhythmic events even in subjects with acute coronary syndrome who present with mild conduction abnormalities on their baseline ECG.

Discharge timing and outcomes after uncomplicated non-ST-segment elevation acute myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND

Length of stay after non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) continues to decrease, but information to guide duration of hospitalization is limited.

METHODS

We used landmark analyses, in which the landmark defined potential days of discharge, to estimate complication rates on the first day the patient would have been out of the hospital, and estimated associations between timing of discharge and 30-day and 1-year event-free survival after discharge among NSTEMI patients.

RESULTS

Among 20,410 NSTEMI patients, median length of stay was 7 (4, 12) days; 3,209 (15.7%) experienced a cardiac complication on days 0 to 2 and 1,322 (6.5%) were discharged without complications during hospital days 0 to 2. At the start of day 3, 15,879 patients (77.8%) were still hospitalized without complications. Of these, 1,689 (10.6%) were discharged event-free on day 3. Adjusted event-free survival rates of death or myocardial infarction from day 4 to 30 days after among the 1,689 patients was 99.1% compared with 93.1% for the 14,190 who remained hospitalized at the end of day 3. For 1-year mortality, these rates were 98.1% and 96.4%, respectively. Among 13,334 patients hospitalized without complications at the start of day 4, 1,706 were discharged event-free that day. Adjusted survival rates among these patients, compared with those still hospitalized at the end of day 4, were 98.0% versus 93.7% for 30-day death or myocardial infarction and 97.8% versus 96.1% for 1-year mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with NSTEMI who had no serious complications during the first 2 hospital days were at low risk of subsequent short- and intermediate-term death or ischemic events.

Interaction of Body Mass Index on the Association Between N-Terminal-Pro-b-Type Natriuretic Peptide and Morbidity and Mortality in Patients With Acute Heart Failure: Findings From ASCEND-HF (Acute Study of Clinical Effectiveness of Nesiritide in Decompensated Heart Failure)

BACKGROUND

Higher body mass index (BMI) is associated with lower circulating levels of N-terminal-pro-b-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP). The Interaction between BMI and NT-proBNP with respect to clinical outcomes is not well characterized in patients with acute heart failure.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total of 686 patients from the biomarker substudy of the ASCEND-HF (Acute Study of Clinical Effectiveness of Nesiritide in Decompensated HF ) clinical trial with documented NT-proBNP levels at baseline were included in the present analysis. Patients were classified by the World Health Organization obesity classification (nonobese: BMI <30 kg/m², Class I obesity: BMI 30-34.9 kg/m², Class II obesity BMI 35-39.9 kg/m², and Class III obesity BMI ≥40 kg/m²). We assessed baseline characteristics and 30- and 180-day outcomes by BMI class and explored the interaction between BMI and NT-proBNP for these outcomes. Study participants had a median age of 67 years (55, 78) and 71% were female. NT-proBNP levels were inversely correlated with BMI (P<0.001). Higher NT-proBNP levels were associated with higher 180-day mortality (adjusted hazard ratio for each doubling of NT-proBNP, 1.40; 95% confidence interval, 1.16, 1.71; P<0.001), but not 30-day outcomes. The effect of NT-proBNP on 180-day death was not modified by BMI class (interaction P=0.24).

CONCLUSIONS

The prognostic value of NT-proBNP was not modified by BMI in this acute heart failure population. NT-proBNP remains a useful prognostic indicator of long-term mortality in acute heart failure even in the obese patient.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00475852.

Obesity, Diabetes, and Acute Coronary Syndrome: Differences Between Asians and Whites

BACKGROUND

Most diabetes and cardiovascular studies have been conducted in white patients, with data being extrapolated to other population groups.

METHODS

For this analysis, patient-level data were extracted from 5 randomized clinical trials in patients with acute coronary syndrome; we compared obesity levels between Asian and white populations, stratified by diabetes status. By using an adjusted Cox proportional hazards model, hazard ratios (HRs) for cardiovascular outcomes after an acute coronary syndrome were determined.

RESULTS

We identified 49,224 patient records from the 5 trials, with 3176 Asians and 46,048 whites. Whites with diabetes had higher body mass index values than those without diabetes (median 29.3 vs 27.2 kg/m²; P < .0001), whereas Asians with diabetes and without diabetes had similar body mass index (24.7 vs 24.2 kg/m²). Asians with diabetes (HR, 1.63; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.32-2.02), whites with diabetes (HR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.06-1.25), and Asians without diabetes (HR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.14-1.64) had higher rates of the composite of death, myocardial infarction, or stroke at 30 days than whites without diabetes. Asians with diabetes (HR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.47-2.31), whites with diabetes (HR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.33-1.62), and Asians without diabetes (HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.11-1.73) had higher rates of death at 1 year compared with whites without diabetes. There were no significant interactions between race and diabetes for ischemic outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Although Asians with diabetes and acute coronary syndrome are less likely to be obese than their white counterparts, their risk for death or recurrent ischemic events was not lower.

Competing Risks of Cardiovascular Versus Noncardiovascular Death During Long-Term Follow-Up After Acute Coronary Syndromes

Background

Understanding the relative risk of cardiovascular versus noncardiovascular death is important for designing clinical trials. These risks may differ depending on patient age, sex, and type of acute coronary syndrome (ACS).

Methods and Results

IMPROVE‐IT (Improved Reduction of Outcomes: Vytorin Efficacy International Trial) was a randomized controlled trial of simvastatin plus either ezetimibe or placebo following stabilized ACS. Cause of death was adjudicated by an independent committee. We compared the cumulative incidence of cardiovascular and noncardiovascular death for patients with unstable angina/non‐ST‐segment elevation myocardial infarction (UA/NSTEMI) and ST‐segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), in those <65 and ≥65 years old, and males and females, over 7 years of follow‐up. Of 18 131 patients, the presenting event was STEMI for 5190 (29%) and UA/NSTEMI for 12 941 (71%); 10 173 (56%) patients were <65 years old and 7971 (44%) were ≥65 years old at presentation. UA/NSTEMI patients were older than STEMI patients, with more cardiovascular and noncardiovascular risk factors. In STEMI patients, the cumulative incidence of cardiovascular death was higher for ∼4 years following the index event, after which noncardiovascular death predominated. In UA/NSTEMI patients, the cumulative incidence of cardiovascular death remained higher than noncardiovascular death over the full follow‐up period. Patients ≥65 years old and <65 years old had a higher incidence of cardiovascular death than noncardiovascular death over the entirety of follow‐up. Female patients had a higher incidence of cardiovascular death than noncardiovascular death for ∼6 years following the index event; male patients had a higher incidence of cardiovascular death than noncardiovascular death over the entirety of follow‐up.

Conclusions

Among post‐ACS patients enrolled in a long‐term clinical trial, the relative incidence of cardiovascular and noncardiovascular death differed based on type of ACS presentation and sex, but not age. These findings further delineate long‐term prognosis after ACS and should inform the design of future cardiovascular outcomes trials.

Differential occurrence, profile, and impact of first recurrent cardiovascular events after an acute coronary syndrome

OBJECTIVE

Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) trials typically use a composite primary outcome (myocardial infarction [MI], stroke, or cardiovascular death), but differential patient characteristics, timing, and consequences associated with individual component end points as first events have not been well studied. We compared patient characteristics and prognostic significance associated with first cardiovascular events in the post-ACS setting for initially stabilized patients.

METHODS

We combined patient-level data from 4 trials of post-ACS antithrombotic therapies (PLATO, APPRAISE-2, TRACER, and TRILOGY ACS) to characterize the timing of and characteristics associated with first cardiovascular events (MI, stroke, or cardiovascular death). Landmark analysis at 7 days after index ACS presentation was used to focus on spontaneous, postdischarge events that were not confounded by in-hospital procedural complications. Using a competing risk framework, we tested for differential associations between prespecified covariates and the occurrence of nonfatal stroke vs MI as the first event, and we examined subsequent events after the first nonfatal event.

RESULTS

Among 46,694 patients with a median follow-up of 358 (25th, 75th percentiles 262, 486) days, a first ischemic event occurred in 4,307 patients (9.2%) as follows: MI in 5.8% (n = 2,690), stroke in 1.0% (n = 477), and cardiovascular death in 2.4% (n = 1,140). Older age, prior stroke/transient ischemic attack, prior atrial fibrillation, and higher diastolic blood pressure were associated with a significantly greater risk of stroke vs MI, whereas prior percutaneous coronary intervention was associated with a greater risk of MI vs stroke. Second events occurred in 32% of those with a first nonfatal stroke at a median of 13 (3, 59) days after the first event and in 32% of those with a first nonfatal MI at a median of 35 (5, 137) days after the first event. The most common second event was a recurrent MI among those with MI as the first event and cardiovascular death among those with stroke as the first event.

CONCLUSIONS

Approximately 9% of patients experienced a first cardiovascular event in the post-ACS setting during a median follow-up of 1 year. Although the profile and prognostic implications of stroke vs MI as the first nonfatal event differ substantially, approximately one-third of these patients experienced a second event, typically soon after the first event. These findings have implications for improving post-ACS care and influencing the design of future cardiovascular trials.

An examination of the relationship between serum uric acid level, a clinical history of gout, and cardiovascular outcomes among patients with acute coronary syndrome

BACKGROUND

Studies have suggested a relationship between higher baseline serum uric acid (sUA) levels and an elevated risk of subsequent ischemic cardiovascular outcomes among acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients; this relationship may be modified by a clinical history of gout and has not been studied in large patient cohorts. We sought to understand the effect of sUA and gout on ACS outcomes.

METHODS

Using PLATO and TRACER data on 27,959 ACS patients, we evaluated baseline sUA levels in relation to a composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction (MI), or stroke. We assessed interaction terms to determine if a baseline clinical diagnosis of gout modified this putative relationship; 46% (n=12,882) had sUA levels elevated >6.0 mg/dL.

RESULTS

Patients with elevated levels were more often male with a history of prior MI, diabetes, and heart failure compared with those with sUA <6.0 mg/dL. The unadjusted risk of the composite endpoint increased with corresponding elevations in sUA levels (per 1 mg/dL increase) (HR=1.23 [95% CI: 1.20-1.26]) above the statistical inflection point of 5.0 mg/dL. After adjustment, the association between sUA level and the composite outcome remained significant (HR=1.07 [95% CI: 1.04-1.10]), and baseline gout did not modify this relationship.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with ACS, increasing levels of sUA are associated with an elevated risk of cardiovascular events, regardless of a clinical diagnosis of gout. Further investigation is warranted to determine the mechanism behind this relationship and to delineate whether sUA is an appropriate therapeutic target to reduce cardiovascular risk.

Trade-off of myocardial infarction vs. bleeding types on mortality after acute coronary syndrome: lessons from the Thrombin Receptor Antagonist for Clinical Event Reduction in Acute Coronary Syndrome (TRACER) randomized trial

AIMS

Dual antiplatelet therapy reduces non-fatal ischaemic events after acute coronary syndrome (ACS) but increases bleeding to a similar extent. We sought to determine the prognostic impact of myocardial infarction (MI) vs. bleeding during an extended follow-up period to gain insight into the trade-off between efficacy and safety among patients after ACS.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In 12 944 patients with non-ST-segment elevation ACS from the Thrombin Receptor Antagonist for Clinical Event Reduction in Acute Coronary Syndrome (TRACER) trial, we investigated the relative impact of MI and bleeding occurring >30 days post-ACS and subsequent all-cause mortality. Bleeding was graded according to Bleeding Academic Research Consortium (BARC) criteria. MI was associated with a five-fold increase in mortality. BARC type 2 and 3, but not type 1, bleeding had a significant impact on mortality. MI was associated with a greater risk of mortality compared with BARC 2 [relative risk (RR) 3.5; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.08-4.77; P < 0.001] and BARC 3a bleeding (RR 2.23; 95% CI 1.36-3.64; P = 0.001), and a risk similar to BARC 3b bleeding (RR 1.37; 95% CI 0.81-2.30; P = 0.242). Risk of death after MI was significantly lower than after BARC 3c bleeding (RR 0.22; 95% CI 0.13-0.36; P < 0.001). MI and bleeding had similar time-associations with mortality, which remained significant for several months, still being higher early after the event.

CONCLUSION

In patients treated with antiplatelet therapy after ACS, both MI and bleeding significantly impacted mortality with similar time-dependency. Although BARC 2 and 3a bleeding were less prognostic for death than MI, the risk of mortality was equivalent between BARC 3b bleeding and MI, and was higher following BARC 3c bleeding.

Fasting glucose, NT-proBNP, treatment with eptifibatide, and outcomes in non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes: An analysis from EARLY ACS

BACKGROUND

Higher N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels have been linked to a more favorable glucometabolic profile. Little is known about the interaction of NT-proBNP and fasting glucose in non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE ACS).

METHODS

Fasting glucose and NT-proBNP were measured in 2240 patients enrolled in the EARLY ACS trial. Multivariable Cox models were used to assess associations between fasting glucose and NT-proBNP and a 96-hour composite of death, myocardial infarction (MI), recurrent ischemia, or thrombotic bailout; 30-day death or MI; and 1-year mortality.

RESULTS

In adjusted Cox models, neither NT-proBNP nor fasting glucose was associated with the 96-hour endpoint (p=0.95 and p=0.87). NT-proBNP was associated with 30-day death or MI (hazard ratio [HR] 1.11, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02-1.22, p=0.02) and 1-year mortality (HR 1.63, 95% CI 1.42-1.89, p<0.0001), but fasting glucose was associated only with 1-year death (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.08-2.16, p=0.02). NT-proBNP×glucose interaction terms were non-significant in all models. As fasting glucose levels increased, the risk of 96-hour and 30-day endpoints increased among patients who received early eptifibatide but not delayed, provisional use (p_int=0.035 and p_int=0.029). Higher NT-proBNP levels were associated with greater 30-day death or MI among patients who received early eptifibatide but not delayed, provisional use (p_int=0.045).

CONCLUSION

NT-proBNP and fasting glucose concentrations were associated with intermediate-term ischemic outcomes and may identify differential response to treatment with eptifibatide. CLINICALTRIALS.

GOV IDENTIFIER

NCT00089895.

Impact of Non-Infarct-Related Artery Disease on Infarct Size and Outcomes (from the CRISP-AMI Trial)

BACKGROUND

Non-infarct-related artery (non-IRA) disease is prevalent in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). We aimed to assess the impact of non-IRA disease on infarct size and clinical outcomes in patients with acute STEMI.

METHODS

The Counterpulsation to Reduce Infarct Size Pre-PCI Acute Myocardial Infarction (CRISP-AMI) trial randomized patients to intra-aortic balloon counterpulsation (IABC) vs no IABC prior to percutaneous coronary intervention in patients with acute STEMI. Infarct size (% left ventricular mass) at 3-5 days post percutaneous coronary intervention and 6-month clinical outcomes were compared between patients with and without non-IRA disease (defined as ≥50% stenosis in at least one non-IRA).

RESULTS

A total of 324 (96.1%) patients had anterior STEMI, of whom 34.9% had non-IRA disease. There was no difference in infarct size (% left ventricular mass) between patients with and without non-IRA disease (median 39% vs 39%; P = .73). At 6 months, there was no difference in rates of recurrent myocardial infarction (0.9% vs 0.9%; P = .78), major Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction bleeding (0.9% vs 0.5%; P = .77), or all-cause death (3.5% vs 2.4%; P = .61) in patients with and without non-IRA disease, respectively. Patients with non-IRA disease had a higher rate of new/worsening heart failure with hospitalization (8.8% vs 1.9%; P = .0050).

CONCLUSIONS

More than one-third of patients with anterior STEMI in the CRISP-AMI study had non-IRA disease. These patients had similar infarct sizes and rates of recurrent myocardial infarction, major bleeding, and all-cause death. Patients with non-IRA disease did have a higher rate of new/worsening heart failure with hospitalization. Further study is needed to understand the mechanisms of outcomes of patients with non-IRA disease.

Albuminuria and cardiovascular events in patients with acute coronary syndromes: Results from the TRACER trial

BACKGROUND

Albuminuria is associated with cardiovascular (CV) outcomes. We evaluated albuminuria, alone and in combination with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), as a predictor of mortality and CV morbidity in 12,944 patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes.

METHODS

Baseline serum creatinine and urinary dipsticks were obtained, with albuminuria stratified into no/trace albuminuria, microalbuminuria (≥30 but <300 mg/dL), or macroalbuminuria (≥300 mg/dL). Kaplan-Meier rates and proportional Cox hazards models of CV death, overall mortality, CV death or myocardial infarction (MI), and bleeding were calculated. Incidence of acute kidney injury, identified by adverse event reporting and creatinine increase (absolute ≥0.3 mg/dL or relative ≥50%), was descriptively reported.

RESULTS

Both dipstick albuminuria and creatinine values were available in 9473 patients (73.2%). More patients with macroalbuminuria, versus no/trace albuminuria, had diabetes (66% vs 27%) or hypertension (86% vs 68%). Rates for CV death and overall mortality per strata were 3.1% and 4.8% (no/trace albuminuria); 5.8% and 9.0% (microalbuminuria); and 7.7% and 12.6% (macroalbuminuria) at 2 years of follow-up. Corresponding rates for CV death or MI were 12.2%, 16.9%, and 23.5%, respectively. Observed acute kidney injury rates were 0.6%, 1.2%, and 2.9% (n = 79), respectively. Adjusted HRs for macroalbuminuria on CV mortality were 1.65 (95% CI 1.15-2.37), and after adjustment with eGFR, 1.37 (95% CI 0.93-2.01). Corresponding HRs for overall mortality were 1.82 (95% CI 1.37-2.42) and 1.47 (95% CI 1.08-1.98).

CONCLUSIONS

High-risk patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes and albuminuria have increased morbidity and increased overall mortality independent of eGFR.

Renal failure in patients with ST-segment elevation acute myocardial infarction treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention: Predictors, clinical and angiographic features, and outcomes

BACKGROUND

Among patients presenting with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) for primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), the associations between clinical outcomes and both baseline renal function and the development of acute kidney injury (AKI) have not been reported in a trial population with unselected baseline renal function.

METHODS

Patients enrolled in the APEX-AMI trial who underwent primary PCI for the treatment of STEMI were categorized according to (a) baseline renal function and (b) the development of AKI. Patient characteristics, clinical outcomes, and treatment patterns were analyzed according to baseline renal function and the development of AKI. A prediction model for AKI after primary PCI for STEMI was also developed.

RESULTS

A total of 5,244 patients were included in this analysis and stratified according to baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) (milliliters per minute per 1.73 m(2)) of >90, 60 to 90, 30 to 59, or <30 or as dialysis dependent. Patients with lower eGFR were older, more often female, and less often treated with evidence-based medicines and had worse angiographic outcomes and higher mortality. The rates of AKI for patients with a baseline eGFR of >90, 60 to 90, 30 to 59, and <30 were 2.5%, 4.1%, 8.1%, and 1.6%, respectively (P < .0001). The strongest predictors of AKI were age and presenting in Killip class III or IV.

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients undergoing primary PCI for STEMI, impaired renal function at presentation and development of post-PCI AKI were highly associated with worse clinical and angiographic outcomes, including death. The risk of developing AKI was low and only modestly associated with baseline renal function.

Use of thienopyridine prior to presentation with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome and association with safety and efficacy of vorapaxar: insights from the TRACER trial

BACKGROUND

Vorapaxar is effective in the prevention of secondary atherothrombotic events, although the efficacy/safety balance appears less favorable in the treatment of patients with non-ST-segment elevation (NSTE) acute coronary syndrome (ACS). We hypothesized that patients with NSTE ACS already receiving thienopyridine prior to the ACS event may show differential efficacy/safety effects with vorapaxar vs. placebo added to their standard care.

METHODS

We studied 12,944 patients from the Thrombin Receptor Antagonist for Clinical Event Reduction in Acute Coronary Syndrome (TRACER) trial with respect to thienopyridine use before admission for the index NSTE ACS event. The primary endpoint was a composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, rehospitalization for ischemia, and urgent revascularization. The key secondary endpoint was a composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, and stroke. Safety endpoints were bleeding complications.

RESULTS

Only 1513 patients (11.7%) were receiving thienopyridine before admission for the index NSTE ACS event. In these patients, Global Use of Strategies to Open Occluded Coronary Arteries (GUSTO) moderate/severe bleeding occurred in 5.7% treated with vorapaxar and 5.3% treated with a placebo (hazards ratio (HR) 1.10, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.70-1.71); in thienopyridine-naïve patients, the rates were 5.7% and 4.1%, respectively (HR 1.32, 95% CI 1.11-1.57; P_int=0.45). GUSTO severe bleeding in the prior thienopyridine group occurred in 0.5% of patients treated with vorapaxar and 1.3% of patients treated with placebo (HR 0.34, 95% CI 0.09-1.30); in thienopyridine-naïve patients, the rates were 2.0% and 1.0%, respectively (HR 1.89, 95% CI 1.36-2.62; P_int=0.01). No interaction was observed between vorapaxar efficacy and prior thienopyridine use on the primary (adjusted P_int=0.53) or key secondary endpoints ( P_int=0.61).

CONCLUSIONS

TRACER was largely conducted in thienopyridine-naïve patients with unknown tolerance to multiple antiplatelet treatments. Patients receiving thienopyridine before the index event may have had an attenuated increase in bleeding when adding vorapaxar, whereas concomitantly adding vorapaxar and thienopyridine in naïve patients may have uncovered a latent susceptibility to bleeding.

Relationship Between Cancer and Cardiovascular Outcomes Following Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

Background

Cardiovascular disease and cancer increasingly coexist, yet relationships between cancer and long-term cardiovascular outcomes post–percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) are not well studied.

Methods and Results

We examined stented PCI patients at Duke (1996–2010) using linked data from the Duke Information Systems for Cardiovascular Care and the Duke Tumor Registry (a cancer treatment registry). Our primary outcome was cardiovascular mortality. Secondary outcomes included composite cardiovascular mortality, myocardial infarction, or repeat revascularization and all-cause mortality. We used adjusted cause-specific hazard models to examine outcomes among cancer patients (cancer treatment pre-PCI) versus controls (no cancer treatment pre-PCI). Cardiovascular mortality was explored in a cancer subgroup with recent (within 1 year pre-PCI) cancer and in post-PCI cancer patients using post-PCI cancer as a time-dependent variable. Among 15 008 patients, 3.3% (n=496) were cancer patients. Observed rates of 14-year cardiovascular mortality (31.4% versus 27.7%, P=0.31) and composite cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or revascularization (51.1% versus 55.8%, P=0.37) were similar for cancer versus control groups; all-cause mortality rates were higher (79.7% versus 49.3%, P<0.01). Adjusted risk of cardiovascular mortality was similar for cancer patients versus controls (hazard ratio 0.95; 95% CI 0.76 to 1.20) and for patients with versus without recent cancer (hazard ratio 1.46; 95% CI 0.92 to 2.33). Post-PCI cancer, present in 4.3% (n=647) of patients, was associated with cardiovascular mortality (adjusted hazard ratio 1.51; 95% CI 1.11 to 2.03).

Conclusions

Cancer history was present in a minority of PCI patients but was not associated with worse long-term cardiovascular outcomes. Further investigation into PCI outcomes in this population is warranted.

Glycoprotein IIb/IIIa Receptor Inhibitors in Combination With Vorapaxar, a Platelet Thrombin Receptor Antagonist, Among Patients With Non-ST-Segment Elevation Acute Coronary Syndromes (from the TRACER Trial)

We evaluated the interaction between protease-activated receptor-1 antagonist vorapaxar and concomitant glycoprotein (GP) IIb/IIIa receptor inhibitors in patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes who underwent PCI. In Thrombin Receptor Antagonist for Clinical Event Reduction in Acute Coronary Syndrome trial, 12,944 patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes were randomized to vorapaxar or placebo. Administration of GP IIb/IIIa receptor inhibitors was allowed at the treating physician's discretion. We investigated whether use of GP IIb/IIIa receptor inhibitors modified vorapaxar's effect on non-coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG)-related bleeding at 7 days and ischemic events at 30 days. In total, 7,455 patients underwent PCI during index hospitalization. Of these, 2,023 patients (27.1%) received inhibitors and 5,432 (72.9%) did not. Vorapaxar was associated with a numerically higher rate of non-CABG-related moderate/severe Global Use of Strategies to Open Occluded Arteries (GUSTO) bleeding at 7 days compared with placebo in those who did (1.3% vs 1.0%) and did not (0.6% vs 0.4%) receive GP IIb/IIIa receptor inhibitors. Ischemic end point rates at 30 days were not significantly lower with vorapaxar versus placebo. Increased rates of non-CABG GUSTO moderate/severe bleeding were observed in patients who received GP IIb/IIIa receptor inhibitors versus those who did not (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.77, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.43 to 7.35 in placebo arm; adjusted HR 2.02, 95% CI 0.62 to 6.61 in vorapaxar arm) and in those who received vorapaxar versus placebo (adjusted HR 1.54, 95% CI 0.36 to 6.56 in the GP IIb/IIIa group; adjusted HR 1.34, 95% CI 0.44 to 4.07 in the no-GP IIb/IIIa group). No interaction was found between vorapaxar and inhibitor use up to 7 days (P interaction = 0.89) nor at the end of the treatment (P interaction = 0.74); however, the event rate was low. Also, no interaction was observed for efficacy end points after PCI at 30 days or at the end of the treatment. In conclusion, GP IIb/IIIa receptor inhibitor use plus dual antiplatelet therapy in a population with non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction planned for PCI was frequent but did not interact with vorapaxar's efficacy or safety. Nonetheless, GP IIb/IIIa receptor inhibitors and vorapaxar were associated with increased bleeding risk, and their combined use may result in additive effects on bleeding rates.

The impact of processes of care on myocardial infarct size in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction: observations from the CRISP-AMI trial

BACKGROUND

Primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is the most common method of reperfusion in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) in the United States. The intersection between processes of care and performance measures such as door-to-balloon (D2B) times and clinical trials evaluating novel therapies for STEMI has not been fully investigated.

HYPOTHESIS

Processes of STEMI care, incorporating clinical trial enrollment and randomization, in patients undergoing reperfusion with primary PCI in the Counterpulsation Reduces Infarct Size Pre-Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Acute Myocardial Infarction trial (CRISP-AMI) will conform to current standards of care.

METHODS

Patients enrolled in CRISP-AMI were included in the current analysis. Processes of care during reperfusion were recorded prospectively and compared between groups.

RESULTS

A total of 337 patients with anterior STEMI without cardiogenic shock were randomized in CRISP-AMI. Complete processes-of-care data were available for 303 patients (89.9%). In this cohort, 68.0% of patients underwent reperfusion within 90 minutes of hospital contact, and the median D2B time was 71 minutes. Time from hospital contact to informed consent was significantly different across different regions (North America, 45 minutes; India, 35 minutes; Europe, 20 minutes).

CONCLUSIONS

In CRISP-AMI, reperfusion was accomplished in a timely fashion while incorporating informed consent and randomization among patients with anterior myocardial infarction. Further study of patients' comprehension and preferences during the informed-consent process in STEMI patients is warranted so that innovative drugs and devices can be safely and ethically tested.

Extent, location, and clinical significance of non-infarct-related coronary artery disease among patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction

IMPORTANCE

Little information exists about the anatomical characteristics and clinical relevance of non-infarct-related artery (IRA) disease among patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI).

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the incidence, extent, and location of obstructive non-IRA disease and compare 30-day mortality according to the presence of non-IRA disease in patients with STEMI.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Retrospective study of patients pooled from a convenience sample of 8 independent, international, randomized STEMI clinical trials published between 1993 and 2007. Follow-up varied from 1 month to 1 year. Among 68,765 patients enrolled in the trials, 28,282 patients with valid angiographic information were included in this analysis. Obstructive coronary artery disease was defined as stenosis of 50% or more of the diameter of a major epicardial artery. To assess the generalizability of trial-based results, external validation was performed using observational data for patients with STEMI from the Korea Acute Myocardial Infarction Registry (KAMIR) (between November 1, 2005, and December 31, 2013; n = 18,217) and the Duke Cardiovascular Databank (between January 1, 2005, and December 31, 2012; n = 1812).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Thirty-day mortality following STEMI.

RESULTS

Overall, 52.8% (14,929 patients) had obstructive non-IRA disease; 29.6% involved 1 vessel and 18.8% involved 2 vessels. There was no substantial difference in the extent and distribution of non-IRA disease according to the IRA territory. Unadjusted and adjusted rates of 30-day mortality were significantly higher in patients with non-IRA disease than in those without non-IRA disease (unadjusted, 4.3% vs 1.7%, respectively; risk difference, 2.7% [95% CI, 2.3% to 3.0%], P < .001; and adjusted, 3.3% vs 1.9%, respectively; risk difference, 1.4% [95% CI, 1.0% to 1.8%], P < .001). The overall prevalence and association of non-IRA disease with 30-day mortality was consistent with findings from the KAMIR registry (adjusted, 3.6% for patients with non-IRA disease vs 2.5% in those without it; risk difference, 1.1% [95% CI, 0.6% to 1.7%]; P < .001), but not with the Duke database (adjusted, 4.7% with non-IRA disease vs 4.3% without it; risk difference, 0.4% [95% CI, -1.4% to 2.2%], P = .65).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In a retrospective pooled analysis of 8 clinical trials, obstructive non-IRA disease was common among patients presenting with STEMI, and was associated with a modest statistically significant increase in 30-day mortality. These findings require confirmation in prospectively designed studies, but raise questions about the appropriateness and timing of non-IRA revascularization in patients with STEMI.

Effects of exercise training on outcomes in women with heart failure: analysis of HF-ACTION (Heart Failure-A Controlled Trial Investigating Outcomes of Exercise TraiNing) by sex

OBJECTIVES

The authors hypothesized that the women enrolled in the HF-ACTION (Heart Failure-A Controlled Trial Investigating Outcomes of Exercise TraiNing) trial and randomly assigned to exercise training (ET) would improve functional capacity as measured by peak oxygen uptake (VO2) compared with those in the usual care group. Furthermore, they hypothesized that the improvement in peak VO2 would correlate with prognosis. They explored whether exercise had a differential effect on outcomes in women versus men.

BACKGROUND

There is less evidence for the benefit of ET in women with heart failure (HF) compared with men because of the small numbers of women studied.

METHODS

HF-ACTION was a randomized trial of ET versus usual care in 2,331 patients with class II-IV HF and a left ventricular ejection fraction of ≤35%. Sex differences in the effects of randomized treatment on clinical outcomes were assessed through the use of a series of Cox proportional hazards models, controlling for covariates known to affect prognosis in HF-ACTION.

RESULTS

Women had lower baseline peak VO2 and 6-min walk distance than did men (median, 13.4 vs. 14.9 ml/min/kg and 353 vs. 378 m, respectively). An increase in peak VO2 at 3 months was present in women and men in the ET group (mean ± SD; median, 0.88 ± 2.2, 0.80 and 0.77 ± 2.7, 0.60, respectively, women vs. men; p = 0.42). Women randomly assigned to ET had a significant reduction in the primary endpoint, (hazard ratio: 0.74) compared with men (hazard ratio: 0.99) randomly assigned to ET, with a significant treatment-by-sex interaction (p = 0.027).

CONCLUSIONS

Although there is no significant difference between men and women in the effect of ET on peak VO2 change at 3 months, ET in women with HF is associated with a larger reduction in rate of the combined endpoint of all-cause mortality and hospital stay than in men.

Risk-adjusted survival after tissue versus mechanical aortic valve replacement: a 23-year assessment

BACKGROUND AND AIM OF THE STUDY

Detailed analyses of risk-adjusted outcomes after mitral valve surgery have documented significant survival decrements with tissue valves at any age. Several recent studies of prosthetic aortic valve replacement (AVR) also have suggested a poorer performance of tissue valves, although analyses have been limited to small matched series. The study aim was to test the hypothesis that AVR with tissue valves is associated with a lower risk-adjusted survival, as compared to mechanical valves.

METHODS

Between 1986 and 2009, primary isolated AVR, with or without coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), was performed with currently available valve types in 2148 patients (1108 tissue valves, 1040 mechanical). Patients were selected for tissue valves to be used primarily in the elderly. Baseline and operative characteristics were documented prospectively with a consistent variable set over the entire 23-year period. Follow up was obtained with mailed questionnaires, supplemented by National Death Index searches. The average time to death or follow up was seven years, and follow up for survival was 96.2% complete. Risk-adjusted survival characteristics for the two groups were evaluated using a Cox proportional hazards model with stepwise selection of candidate variables.

RESULTS

Differences in baseline characteristics between groups were (tissue versus mechanical): median age 73 versus 61 years; non-elective surgery 32% versus 28%; CABG 45% versus 35%; median ejection fraction 55% versus 55%; renal failure 6% versus 1%; diabetes 18% versus 7% (p<0.01). Unadjusted Kaplan-Meier survival was significantly lower with tissue than mechanical valves; however, after risk adjustment for the adverse profiles of tissue valve patients, no significant difference was observed in survival after tissue or mechanical AVR. Thus, the hypothesis did not hold, and risk-adjusted survival was equivalent, of course qualified by the fact that selection bias was evident.

CONCLUSION

With selection criteria that employed tissue AVR more frequently in elderly patients, tissue and mechanical valves achieved similar survival characteristics across the spectrum of patient risk. Further studies of the relative outcomes of mechanical versus tissue valves across the spectrum of patient age seem indicated.

Prevalence and clinical outcomes of undiagnosed diabetes mellitus and prediabetes among patients with high-risk non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome

BACKGROUND

We examined the prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes or prediabetes and associations with ischemic outcomes among non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients.

METHODS

We categorized 8795 EARLY ACS trial patients into one of the following groups: "known diabetes" (n = 2860 [32.5%]; reported on the case report form), "undiagnosed diabetes" (n = 1069 [12.2%]; no diabetes history and fasting glucose ≥126 mg/dL or hemoglobin A1c ≥6.5%), "prediabetes" (n = 947 [10.8%]; fasting glucose ≥110 to <126 mg/dL, or "normal" (n = 3919 [44.5%]). Adjusted associations of known diabetes, undiagnosed diabetes, and prediabetes (versus normal) with 30-day and 1-year outcomes were determined.

RESULTS

Undiagnosed diabetes was associated with greater 30-day death or myocardial infarction (MI) (ORadj 1.28, 95% CI 1.05-1.57), driven primarily by greater 30-day mortality (ORadj 1.65, 95% CI 1.09-2.48). Known diabetic patients had 30-day death or MI outcomes similar to those of normal patients, but 30-day mortality was higher (ORadj 1.40, 95% CI 1.01-1.93). Prediabetic patients had 30-day death or MI outcomes similar to those of normal patients. One-year mortality was greater among known diabetic patients (HRadj 1.38, 95% CI 1.13-1.67) but not among those with undiagnosed diabetes or prediabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

Undiagnosed diabetes and prediabetes were common among high-risk non-ST-segment elevation ACS patients. Routine screening for undiagnosed diabetes may be useful since these patients seem to have worse short-term outcomes and deserve consideration of alternative management strategies.

6-min walk test provides prognostic utility comparable to cardiopulmonary exercise testing in ambulatory outpatients with systolic heart failure

OBJECTIVES

The goal of this study was to compare the prognostic efficacy of the 6-min walk (6MW) and cardiopulmonary exercise (CPX) tests in stable outpatients with chronic heart failure (HF).

BACKGROUND

CPX and 6MW tests are commonly applied as prognostic gauges for systolic HF patients, but few direct comparisons have been conducted.

METHODS

Stable New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class II and III systolic HF patients (ejection fraction ≤ 35%) from the HF-ACTION (Heart Failure: A Controlled Trial Investigating Outcomes of Exercise Training) trial were studied. 6MW distance (6MWD) and CPX indices (peak oxygen consumption [VO(2)] and ventilatory equivalents for exhaled carbon dioxide [VE/VCO(2)] slope) were compared as predictors of all-cause mortality/hospitalization and all-cause mortality over 2.5 years of mean follow-up.

RESULTS

A total of 2,054 HF-ACTION participants underwent both CPX and 6MW tests at baseline (median age 59 years; 71% male; 64% NYHA functional class II and 36% NYHA functional class III/IV). In unadjusted models and in models that included key clinical and demographic covariates, C-indices of 6MWD were 0.58 and 0.65 (unadjusted) and 0.62 and 0.72 (adjusted) in predicting all-cause mortality/hospitalization and all-cause mortality, respectively. C-indices for peak VO(2) were 0.61 and 0.68 (unadjusted) and 0.63 and 0.73 (adjusted). C-indices for VE/VCO(2) slope were 0.56 and 0.65 (unadjusted) and 0.61 and 0.71 (adjusted); combining peak VO(2) and VE/VCO(2) slope did not improve the C-indices. Overlapping 95% confidence intervals and modest integrated discrimination improvement values confirmed similar prognostic discrimination by 6MWD and CPX indices within adjusted models.

CONCLUSIONS

In systolic HF outpatients, 6MWD and CPX indices demonstrated similar utility as univariate predictors for all-cause hospitalization/mortality and all-cause mortality. However, 6MWD or CPX indices added only modest prognostic discrimination to models that included important demographic and clinical covariates.

Link between decisions regarding resuscitation and preferences for quality over length of life with heart failure

AIMS

Survival preferences, ascertained from time-trade-off utilities, have not been studied in heart failure patients who designate a 'do not resuscitate' (DNR) status. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine the association of heart failure patients' resuscitation preferences with survival preferences and mortality in the ESCAPE trial.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We analysed the association of resuscitation orders at 1 month with time-trade-off utilities and 6-month mortality. There were 26 and 349 patients with a DNR order and Full Code order, respectively. DNR patients were older, had more coronary artery disease, hypertension, renal impairment, and poorer exercise capacity than Full Code patients. DNR patients also experienced longer hospitalization and higher 6-month mortality. In multivariate analysis, DNR preference was associated with 10-fold higher odds of willingness to trade survival time (lower time-trade-off utility) in favour of improved quality of life [odds ratio 10.33, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.65-64.80]. DNR preference was the best predictor of mortality (χ(2) 26.12, P < 0.0001, hazard ratio 6.88, 95% CI 3.28-14.41), despite adjustment for known predictors including brain natriuretic peptide.

CONCLUSIONS

Heart failure patients' requests to forego resuscitation may signify more than simply 'what-if' directives for emergency care. DNR decisions may reflect preferences for intervention to enhance quality rather than prolong survival, which is particularly important as these patients have high early mortality.

Factors related to morbidity and mortality in patients with chronic heart failure with systolic dysfunction: the HF-ACTION predictive risk score model

BACKGROUND

We aimed to develop a multivariable statistical model for risk stratification in patients with chronic heart failure with systolic dysfunction, using patient data that are routinely collected and easily obtained at the time of initial presentation.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In a cohort of 2331 patients enrolled in the HF-ACTION (Heart Failure: A Controlled Trial Investigating Outcomes of Exercise TraiNing) study (New York Heart Association class II-IV, left ventricular ejection fraction ≤0.35, randomized to exercise training and usual care versus usual care alone, median follow-up of 2.5 years), we performed risk modeling using Cox proportional hazards models and analyzed the relationship between baseline clinical factors and the primary composite end point of death or all-cause hospitalization and the secondary end point of all-cause death alone. Prognostic relationships for continuous variables were examined using restricted cubic spline functions, and key predictors were identified using a backward variable selection process and bootstrapping methods. For ease of use in clinical practice, point-based risk scores were developed from the risk models. Exercise duration on the baseline cardiopulmonary exercise test was the most important predictor of both the primary end point and all-cause death. Additional important predictors for the primary end point risk model (in descending strength) were Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire symptom stability score, higher serum urea nitrogen, and male sex (all P<0.0001). Important additional predictors for the mortality risk model were higher serum urea nitrogen, male sex, and lower body mass index (all P<0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Risk models using simple, readily obtainable clinical characteristics can provide important prognostic information in ambulatory patients with chronic heart failure with systolic dysfunction.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00047437.

Safety of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor use prior to coronary artery bypass grafting

BACKGROUND

Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) have been shown to increase bleeding risks. This study examined the association of perioperative coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) bleeding risks and SSRI use prior to CABG.

HYPOTHESIS

SSRI may be associated with increased bleeding risks after CABG resulting in elevated reoperation rates due to bleeding complications.

METHODS

Patients who underwent CABG between 1999 and 2003 (n = 4794) were identified in a tertiary medical center. SSRI use (n = 246) was determined using inpatient pharmacy records. Outcomes included primary end point of reoperation due to bleeding complications and other secondary measures. Multivariate regression models were constructed to adjust for baseline differences between SSRI and control groups.

RESULTS

Reoperation due to bleeding complications among SSRI users was not significantly different (odds ratio [OR]: 1.14 (0.52-2.47); P = 0.75) compared to the control group. Other secondary outcomes and 30-day mortality (2.0% in SSRI vs 2.1% in control group; P = 0.92) between the 2 groups were similar. However, the adjusted total volume of postoperative red blood cell (RBC) units transfused was higher in the SSRI group.

CONCLUSION

We conclude that there is no compelling evidence to limit the use of SSRIs among patients with coronary artery disease who undergo CABG given the current evidence. Further research may be needed on individual SSRI medications.

Triangular Ising antiferromagnet: boundary conditions, ground state entropy, and vortices

The ground state entropy density of the triangular Ising antiferromagnet is considered as a function of boundary conditions on domains for which the ground states do not admit a dimer covering. These domains admit a rich set of ground states that cannot be classified in the usual way in terms of nonintersecting strings. Various parametrized boundary conditions and domain shapes are identified that allow the ground state entropy density to be varied between zero and maximal degeneracy. The dependence of degeneracy on boundary spins and/or domain shape is interpreted in terms of strings that are not restricted to be nonintersecting.