Female adiposity and time-to-pregnancy: a multiethnic prospective cohort

STUDY QUESTION

Are higher overall and central adiposity associated with reduced fecundability, measured by time-to-pregnancy (TTP), in Asian women?

SUMMARY ANSWER

Higher overall adiposity, but not central adiposity, was associated with longer TTP in Asian women.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

High body mass index (BMI) has been associated with a longer TTP, although the associations of body composition and distribution with TTP are less clear. There are no previous studies of TTP in Asian women, who have a relatively higher percentage of body fat and abdominal fat at relatively lower BMI.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

Prospective preconception cohort using data from 477 Asian (Chinese, Malay and Indian) women who were planning to conceive and enrolled in the Singapore PREconception Study of long-Term maternal and child Outcomes (S-PRESTO) study, 2015-2017.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

Women's mean age was 30.7 years. Overall adiposity was assessed by BMI, sum of 4-site skinfold thicknesses (SFT) and total body fat percentage (TBF%, measured using air displacement plethysmography); central adiposity was assessed by waist circumference (WC), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) and A body Shape Index (ABSI). Pregnancy occurring within one year from recruitment was ascertained by ultrasonography. Those who did not conceive within one year of recruitment, were lost to follow-up, or initiated fertility treatment were censored. TTP was measured in cycles. Discrete-time proportional hazards models were used to estimate the fecundability ratio (FR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for each anthropometric measure in association with fecundability, adjusting for confounders.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

Compared to women with a normal BMI of 18.5-22.9 kg/m2, women with higher BMI of 23-27.4 and ≥27.5 kg/m2 showed lower FR of 0.66 (95% CI 0.45, 0.97) and 0.53 (0.31, 0.89), respectively. Compared to women in the lowest quartile of SFT (25-52.9 mm), those in the highest quartile of ≥90.1 mm showed lower FR of 0.58 (95% CI 0.36, 0.95). Compared to women in the lowest quartile of TBF% (13.6-27.2%), those in the upper two quartiles of 33.0-39.7% and ≥39.8% showed lower FR of 0.56 (95% CI 0.32, 0.98) and 0.43 (0.24, 0.80), respectively. Association of high BMI with reduced fecundability was particularly evident among nulliparous women. Measures of central adiposity (WC, WHR, WHtR, ABSI) were not associated with fecundability.

LIMITATIONS REASONS FOR CAUTION

Small sample size could restrict power of analysis.The analysis was confined to planned pregnancies, which could limit generalizability of findings to non-planned pregnancies, estimated at around 44% in Singapore. Information on the date of last menstrual period for each month was not available, hence the accuracy of self-reported menstrual cycle length could not be validated, potentially introducing error into TTP estimation. Measures of exposures and covariates such as cycle length were not performed repeatedly over time; cycle length might have changed during the period before getting pregnant.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

Other than using BMI as the surrogate measure of body fat, we provide additional evidence showing that higher amounts of subcutaneous fat that based on the measure of SFT at the sites of biceps, triceps, suprailiac and subscapular, and TBF% are associated with longer TTP. Achieving optimal weight and reducing total percentage body fat may be a potential intervention target to improve female fertility. The null results observed between central adiposity and TTP requires confirmation in further studies.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

This research is supported by Singapore National Research Foundation under its Translational and Clinical Research Flagship Programme and administered by the Singapore Ministry of Health's National Medical Research Council, (NMRC/TCR/004-NUS/2008; NMRC/TCR/012-NUHS/2014). Additional funding is provided by the Singapore Institute for Clinical Sciences, Agency for Science Technology and Research (A*STAR), Singapore. Y.S.C., K.M.G., F.Y. and Y.S.L. have received reimbursement to speak at conferences sponsored by companies selling nutritional products. Y.S.C., K.M.G. and S.Y.C. are part of an academic consortium that has received research funding from Abbott, Nutrition, Nestle and Danone. Other authors declared no conflicts of interest.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

N/A.

Feasibility and validity of the ActiGraph GT3X accelerometer in measuring physical activity of Malawian toddlers

AIM

To test the feasibility and validity of the ActiGraph GT3X accelerometer in measuring physical activity of rural Malawian toddlers.

METHODS

Fifty-six children aged 16.0-18.5 months wore the accelerometer on their right hip for 7 days. We analysed days with a minimum of 600 min of wear time, excluding night time and periods when the unit registered zero for 20 consecutive minutes. The first and last days were excluded as they were incomplete. Accelerometer counts were compared with coded free play video recordings to define median accelerometer counts for sedentary, light, moderate and vigorous activity. Count cut points were defined for moderate to vigorous physical activity, with predictive validity assessed using a second set of video recordings.

RESULTS

Median wear time was 797 min/day, with 79% of participants completing at least four eligible days. Accelerometer counts were significantly higher for observed moderate to vigorous physical activity, than lighter activity, with cut points of 208 counts/15 sec for vector magnitude and 35 counts/15 sec for vertical axis, showing sensitivity of 94.2% and 84.1% and specificity of 90.9% and 84.6%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The accelerometer proved a feasible and valid method of assessing physical activity among Malawian toddlers.

Serotype-specific avidity is achieved following a single dose of the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, and is enhanced by 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide booster at 12 months

AIM

To evaluate whether the avidity of serotype-specific IgG to pneumococcal serotypes is enhanced by an increased number of doses of the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) in infancy or by a 12 month 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (23vPPS) booster, and/or subsequent re-exposure to a small dose of pneumococcal polysaccharide antigens (mPPS) at 17 months.

METHODS

Fijian infants aged 6 weeks were recruited, stratified by ethnicity and randomized to 8 groups to receive 0, 1, 2, or 3 doses of PCV, with or without 23vPPS at 12 months. All children received mPPS at 17 months of age. Avidity of serotype-specific IgG for PCV serotypes in the first 12 months and for all 23vPPS serotypes thereafter was assessed by EIA after sodium thiocyanate elution.

RESULTS

At one month post primary series, the 2 and 3 PCV dose groups demonstrated similar avidity, with the single dose group tending to have lower avidity. However, by age 9 months, the single dose group had similar avidity to the 2 and 3 PCV groups for most serotypes. The 23vPPS booster enhanced affinity maturation for most serotypes and this was most marked in those groups that received a single PCV dose. There was little further increase following the mPPS.

CONCLUSIONS

By 9 months of age, similar avidity can be induced following one, 2 or 3 doses of PCV. A 23vPPS booster at 12 months enhanced affinity maturation with an increase in antibody avidity for most serotypes. Subsequent re-challenge with mPPS at 17 months did not further enhance the avidity of serotype-specific response in the 12 month 23vPPS groups.

Continuation of linear growth failure and its association with cognitive ability are not dependent on initial length-for-age: a longitudinal study from 6 months to 11 years of age

AIM

To examine linear growth and its association with cognitive ability at age 11 years among full-term singletons with varying degree of stunting or without stunting at age 6 months.

METHODS

A total of 1516 Filipino term-born singletons were followed bimonthly from age 6 to 24 months and took cognitive and academic achievement tests at 11 years. The tests were factor-analysed to give a summary cognitive ability score. Linear regression was used to examine associations and adjust for covariates.

RESULTS

Mean height-for-age Z-score (HAZ) was -1.0 at age 6 months and -2.4 at 24 months. HAZ at 6 months, change in HAZ from 6 to 24 months and change in HAZ from 24 months to 11 years were positively associated with cognitive ability at 11 years (each p < 0.001). The association was seen in all categories of HAZ at 6 months.

CONCLUSION

In this setting where linear growth retardation was common, association between linear growth after age 6 months and cognitive ability in adolescence was not dependent on initial HAZ. Prevention of growth stunting may benefit all children regardless of their initial HAZ.

Opsonophagocytic activity following a reduced dose 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine infant primary series and 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine at 12 months of age

Opsonophagocytic activity (OPA) was measured following reduced infant doses of 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV-7) with or without 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV-23) at 12 months, and subsequent re-exposure to a small dose of pneumococcal polysaccharide antigens (mPPS) at 17 months. Fijian infants were randomized to receive 0, 1, 2, or 3 PCV-7 doses. Half received PPV-23 at 12 months and all received mPPS at 17 months. OPA was performed on up to 14 serotypes. Three and 2 PCV-7 doses resulted in similar OPA for most PCV-7 serotypes up to 9 months and for half of the serotypes at 12 months. A single dose improved OPA compared with the unvaccinated group. PPV-23 significantly improved OPA for all serotypes tested but in general, was associated with diminished responses following re-challenge.

A simple approach to the estimation of incidence rate difference

The incidence rate difference (IRD) is a parameter of interest in many medical studies. For example, in vaccine studies, it is interpreted as the vaccine-attributable reduction in disease incidence. This is an important parameter, because it shows the public health impact of an intervention. The IRD is difficult to estimate for various reasons, especially when there are quantitative covariates or the duration of follow-up is variable. In this paper, the authors propose an approach based on weighted least-squares regression for estimating the IRD. It is very easy to implement because it boils down to performing ordinary least-squares regression analysis of transformed variables. Furthermore, if the outcome events are repeatable, the authors propose that data on all events be analyzed instead of first events only. Four versions of the Huber-White robust standard error are considered for statistical inference. Simulation studies are used to examine the performance of the proposed method. In a variety of scenarios simulated, the method provides an unbiased estimate for the IRD, and the empirical coverage proportion of the 95% confidence interval is very close to the nominal level. The method is illustrated with data from a vaccine trial carried out in the Gambia in 2001-2004.

Spatial analysis of tuberculosis in an urban west African setting: is there evidence of clustering?

OBJECTIVES

To describe the pattern of tuberculosis (TB) occurrence in Greater Banjul, The Gambia with Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and Spatial Scan Statistics (SaTScan) and to determine whether there is significant TB case clustering.

METHODS

In Greater Banjul, where 80% of all Gambian TB cases arise, all patients with TB registered at chest clinics between March 2007 and February 2008 were asked to participate. Demographic, clinical characteristics and GPS co-ordinates for the residence of each consenting TB case were recorded. A spatial scan statistic was used to identify purely spatial and space-time clusters of tuberculosis among permanent residents.

RESULTS

Of 1145 recruited patients with TB, 84% were permanent residents with 88% living in 37 settlements that had complete maps available down to settlement level. Significant high- and low-rate spatial and space-time clusters were identified in two districts. The most likely cluster of high rate from both the purely spatial analysis and the retrospective space-time analysis were from the same geographical area. A significant secondary cluster was also identified in one of the densely populated areas of the study region.

CONCLUSIONS

There is evidence of significant clustering of TB cases in Greater Banjul, The Gambia. Systematic use of cluster detection techniques for regular TB surveillance in The Gambia may aid effective deployment of resources. However, passive case detection dictates that community-based active case detection and risk factor surveys would help confirm the presence of true clusters and their causes.

Hyporesponsiveness to re-challenge dose following pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine at 12 months of age, a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

To evaluate the immunological impact of the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (23vPPS) at 12 months, for children who have received zero to three infant doses of seven-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV), on responses to a subsequent exposure to a small dose of 23vPPS (mPPS).

METHODS

Five hundred and fifty-two Fijian infants were stratified by ethnicity and randomized into eight groups to receive zero, one, two, or three PCV doses at 14 weeks, six and 14 weeks, or six, ten, and 14 weeks. Within each group, half received 23vPPS at 12 months and all received mPPS at 17 months. Sera were taken prior and one month post-mPPS.

FINDINGS

By 17 months, geometric mean antibody concentrations (GMC) to all 23 serotypes in 23vPPS were significantly higher in children who had received 23vPPS at 12 months compared to those who had not. Post-mPPS, children who had not received the 12 month 23vPPS had a significantly higher GMC for all PCV serotypes compared with those who had (each p<0.02). For the non-PCV serotypes, children who had not received the 12 month 23vPPS had significantly higher GMC for six of 16 non-PCV serotypes (7F, 9N, 12F, 19A, 22F, 33F) than those who did (each p<0.02). After adjusting for the pre-mPPS level, exposure to 23vPPS was associated with a lower response to mPPS for all serotypes (each p<0.001).

INTERPRETATION

Despite higher antibody concentrations at 17 months in children who had received 23vPPS at 12 months, the response to a re-challenge was poor for all 23 serotypes compared to children who had not received the 12 month 23vPPS.

Prevalent infectious tuberculosis in Harare, Zimbabwe: burden, risk factors and implications for control

SETTING

Harare's high density suburbs.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the burden, duration and risk factors for prevalent tuberculosis (TB) and explore potential control strategies.

METHODS

Randomly selected adults had TB culture, symptom screen and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) serology. Prevalent TB was defined as undiagnosed or still culture-positive. Notification data and HIV prevalence in TB out-patients were used to estimate duration of infectiousness (prevalence/estimated incidence).

RESULTS

Among 10 092 participants, 40 (0.40%, 95%CI 0.28-0.54) had prevalent smear-positive TB. HIV (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 3.1, 95%CI 1.6-6.3, population attributable fraction [PAF] 33%), male sex (aOR 3.1, 95%CI 1.5-6.4, PAF 40%), and overcrowding (PAF 34%) were significant risk factors, with past TB treatment significant for HIV-negative participants only (PAF 7%). Recent household TB contact was not significant (PAF 10%). HIV prevalence was 21.1%; 76.9% of HIV-positive participants were previously untested. Duration of infectiousness was at least 18 weeks in HIV-positive and approximately 1 year in HIV-negative patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Overcrowding, male sex and HIV infection were major risk factors for prevalent smear-positive TB. Reducing diagnostic delay may have greater potential to improve the control of prevalent TB than interventions targeted at household contacts, TB treatment outcomes, or TB-HIV interventions under current levels of awareness of HIV status.

Three estimates of the association between linear growth failure and cognitive ability

OBJECTIVES

To compare three estimators of association between growth stunting as measured by height-for-age Z-score and cognitive ability in children, and to examine the extent statistical adjustment for covariates is useful for removing confounding due to socio-economic status.

METHODS

Three estimators, namely random-effects, within- and between-cluster estimators, for panel data were used to estimate the association in a survey of 1105 pairs of siblings who were assessed for anthropometry and cognition. Furthermore, a 'combined' model was formulated to simultaneously provide the within- and between-cluster estimates.

RESULTS

Random-effects and between-cluster estimators showed strong association between linear growth and cognitive ability, even after adjustment for a range of socio-economic variables. In contrast, the within-cluster estimator showed a much more modest association: For every increase of one Z-score in linear growth, cognitive ability increased by about 0.08 standard deviation (P < 0.001). The combined model verified that the between-cluster estimate was significantly larger than the within-cluster estimate (P = 0.004).

CONCLUSION

Residual confounding by socio-economic situations may explain a substantial proportion of the observed association between linear growth and cognition in studies that attempt to control the confounding by means of multivariable regression analysis. The within-cluster estimator provides more convincing and modest results about the strength of association.

Long-term morbidity from severe pneumonia in early childhood in The Gambia, West Africa: a follow-up study

OBJECTIVE

To assess long-term outcomes in severe early childhood pneumonia in The Gambia.

DESIGN

Observational cohort study of children hospitalised with severe pneumonia between 1992 and 1994 compared to age, sex, and neighbourhood-matched controls on measures of current general and pulmonary health.

RESULTS

Of 83 children successfully traced, 68 of the 69 alive at follow-up agreed to participate. Thirteen per cent of cases and 4% of controls had lung disease clinically or on spirometry. Another 16 (13%) participants had abnormal spirometry but did not meet the American Thoracic Society technical criteria (formally 'inconclusive'). Odds ratios of lung disease among childhood pneumonia cases were 2.93 (95%CI 0.69-12.48, P = 0.1468) with inconclusives omitted; 2.53 (95%CI 0.61-10.59, P = 0.2033) with inconclusives included as normal; and 2.83 (95%CI 1.09-7.36, P = 0.0334) with inconclusives included as lung disease. Among deceased cases, most deaths were reported within weeks of discharge, suggesting a possible connection between admission and subsequent death.

CONCLUSION

These African data, while not conclusive, add to previous data suggesting a link between severe early childhood pneumonia and later chronic lung disease. While larger-scale research is needed, increased awareness of possible long-term morbidity in children with severe pneumonia is warranted to limit its impact and optimise long-term health.

Computerized administration of health-related quality of life instruments compared to interviewer administration may reduce sample size requirements in clinical research: a pilot randomized controlled trial among rheumatology patients

OBJECTIVES

Computerized health-related quality of life (HRQoL) administration may facilitate clinical trials incorporating HRQoL assessment in rheumatology patients by reducing sample size requirements. We tested this hypothesis in a pilot randomized controlled trial.

METHODS

Chinese-speaking adult rheumatology outpatients were randomized to computerized (PC) or interviewer (IA) administration of the EQ-5D (utility & VAS), Health Utilities Index (HUI2 & HUI3) and Family Functioning Measure (FFM). We compared measurement variability (i.e., variance) between PC and IA for each instrument before (Levene's test) and after adjusting for the effects of age, gender and education (multivariable modeling) and computed the variance ratio (VR) for PC over IA.

RESULTS

In 138 patients (mean age: 48), the mean (SD) time for administration was similar for PC (n = 67) and IA (n = 71) at 17.7 (7.94) versus 17.3 minutes (7.49), respectively. More subjects expressed a preference for PC (n = 21) over IA (n = 13). Mean HRQoL scores were not significantly different for PC versus IA except for higher VAS scores with IA (difference -7.7, 95% CI -14.0 to 1.3, p = 0.018). Variances and adjusted VR were smaller with PC for the EQ-5D (adjusted VR 0.34, 95% CI 0.18 to 0.65), HUI3 (0.49, 0.27 to 0.89) and FFM (0.95, 0.61 to 1.46), but larger for the HUI2 (1.30, 0.67 to 2.55) and VAS (1.05, 0.55 to 2.00).

CONCLUSION

The reduced variability in 3 of 5 instruments and good acceptance of computerized HRQoL assessment, if confirmed in larger studies, may lead to smaller sample size requirements, with potential reductions in cost and recruitment time for clinical trials and cohort studies.

Concurrent chemoradiotherapy followed by surgery in locally advanced squamous cell carcinoma of the oesophagus: a single centre experience

INTRODUCTION

Data on combined modality treatment for locally advanced squamous cell carcinoma of the oesophagus involving Asian patients are limited.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective study of 56 consecutive patients with this condition treated with concurrent chemoradiotherapy followed by surgery in a single tertiary institution in Singapore was performed.

RESULTS

The median overall survival of the entire cohort was 14.1 months [95% confidence interval (CI); range, 8.6 to 19.6 months]. In patients who underwent successful oesophagectomy after chemoradiotherapy (n = 17), the median survival was 27.8 months compared to 9.8 months for those who did not have surgery (n = 39) (P = 0.046, log-rank test). The median time to first relapse for the entire cohort was 16.1 months (95% CI, 7.7 to 24.5 months). The time to first relapse was 23.9 months in the subgroup of patients with successful surgery and 12.1 months in the group which did not (P = 0.147, log-rank test). The high proportion of patients who were medically unfit for surgery or declined surgery may have conferred a selection bias.

CONCLUSION

Concurrent chemoradiotherapy followed by surgery is feasible in selected patients. The benefit of adding of surgery to chemoradiotherapy is still controversial and we await the results of randomised controlled trials comparing chemoradiotherapy with surgery versus chemoradiotherapy alone.

Acceptance of prophylactic surgery and chemoprevention of cancer in Singapore - a survey

INTRODUCTION

In addition to surveillance practices, chemoprevention and prophylactic surgery can reduce the risk of cancer in individuals at high risk. Sociocultural factors may have a role to play in such decision making. Little is known regarding the factors that play a role in decision making in Singapore.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

One hundred and two individuals at normal risk completed a questionnaire on the concept of chemoprevention and prophylactic surgery. The results were analysed using the convenience sampling method.

RESULTS

Participants were mostly Chinese (94.1%). More than 90% of the respondents answered the section on prophylactic surgery and chemoprevention. Thirty-eight individuals (41.3%) would not consider prophylactic surgery, while 42 (45.7%) would not consider prophylactic surgery now but might consider it in the future. Twenty-five individuals (26.9%) would not consider chemoprevention by taking a medication, 57% would not consider it now but might in the future.

CONCLUSION

A cross-sectional public view suggests that medical prophylaxis is likely to be more acceptable to the general public compared to surgical prophylaxis.

Validation of the English and Chinese versions of the Quick-FLIC quality of life questionnaire

A useful measure of quality of life should be easy and quick to complete. Recently, we reported the development and validation of a shortened Chinese version of the Functional Living Index – Cancer (FLIC), which we called the Quick-FLIC. In the present study of 327 English-speaking and 221 Chinese-speaking cancer patients, we validated the English version of the Quick-FLIC and further assessed the Chinese version. The 11 Quick-FLIC items were administered alongside the 11 remaining items of the full FLIC, but there appeared to be little context effect. Validity of the English version of the Quick-FLIC was attested by its strong correlation with two other measures of quality of life, and its ability to detect differences between patients with different performance status and treatment status (each P<0.001). Its internal consistency (alpha=0.86) and test–retest reliability (intraclass correlation=0.76) were also satisfactory. The measure was responsive to changes in performance status (P<0.001). The Chinese version showed similar characteristics. The Quick-FLIC behaved in ways that are highly comparable with the FLIC, even though the Quick-FLIC comprised only 11 items whereas the FLIC comprised 22. Further research is required to see whether the use of shorter instruments can improve data quality and response rates, but the fact that shorter instruments place less burden on the patients is itself inherently important.

Discriminative ability of the Short-Form 36 Health Survey: A tale of two versions

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Previous studies suggested that the Chinese version of the Short-Form 36 Health Survey (SF-36) had smaller variability in the physical functioning (PF) and physical component summary (PCS) scores than the English SF-36. This may translate into differences in discriminative ability and sample size requirement.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data were drawn from a community-based survey and a randomised crossover study of Singaporeans bilingual in the Chinese and English languages. The abilities of the two PF and PCS versions in discriminating subjects who reported chronic illness and acute disease symptoms versus those who did not were compared.

RESULTS

In all four comparisons (i.e. two health criteria in two studies) the Chinese version of PF showed a larger effect size than the English version. In three out of four comparisons the Chinese version of PCS showed a larger effect size than the English version.

CONCLUSIONS

The Chinese version appeared more efficient in detecting a statistically significant difference between groups. Other factors being the same, the Chinese SF-36 may require a smaller sample size than the English SF-36 for the studies of physical aspects of health-related quality of life.

Risk perception is affected by modes of risk presentation among Singaporeans

INTRODUCTION

Not much is known about how Singaporeans perceive and react to risk presentation. There is no consensus on whether the European Union guidelines for describing the risk of side effects are valid. This study investigated the effect of different modes of risk presentation on how Singaporeans perceive and react to medical risk. Furthermore, we investigated the practical usage of qualitative phrases, the European Union's adjectives in particular, in describing levels of risk.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A hypothetical situation about the risk of side effects of an influenza vaccine was presented in either a probability format (i.e., 5%; n = 42) or a frequency format (i.e., 1 out of 20; n = 43). The 2 versions of questionnaire were handed out in an alternate order to a convenience sample of 47 healthcare professionals and 38 university students.

RESULTS

Respondents presented with a "5% risk" were more likely to describe the risk as "uncommon" or "rare", as compared to respondents presented with a risk of "one out of twenty" (P <0.01). Furthermore, the former showed more willingness to accept the influenza vaccine described in the hypothetical situation than in the latter, but this was not statistically different (67% versus 54%; P >0.1).

CONCLUSIONS

Modes of risk presentation affect how people perceive risk, even among people who are highly educated.

Can patients with early-stage diffuse large B-cell lymphoma be treated without bone marrow biopsy?

BACKGROUND

Data on the incidence of bone marrow (BM) involvement in early-stage diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) are lacking. Although BM biopsy is a safe procedure, it is often poorly tolerated. This analysis aims to assess the incidence of BM involvement and to identify parameters predicting BM involvement in early-stage DLBCL.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

One hundred and ninety-two patients with radiological stages 1 and 2 disease were analysed. The data collected were age, sex, presence of B symptoms, white blood cell (WBC) count, platelet count, haemoglobin (Hb), serum lactate dehydrogenase level, serum beta(2)-microglobulin level, presence of extranodal disease, and the presence of bulky disease (defined as >7 cm).

RESULTS

Overall incidence of BM involvement was 3.6%. Hb < 10 g/dl (P=0.02), WBC count < 4 x 10(9)/l (P=0.007) and bulky disease (P=0.06) were found to be predictive of BM involvement. Among the 120 patients without any of these three factors, only one patient had BM involvement (0.83%; 95% confidence interval 0.02% to 4.6%). The absence of all three factors gave a negative predictive value of 99.2%. Overall 3-year survival for patients without all three risk factors was 80%.

CONCLUSIONS

BM biopsy may be safely omitted in selected patients with early-stage DLBCL.

Quick-FLIC: validation of a short questionnaire for assessing quality of life of cancer patients

A practically useful measure of quality of life should be simple and quick to complete. A shortened Chinese version of the Functional Living Index – Cancer (FLIC) was recently proposed and was called Quick-FLIC. This study aims to assess the measurement properties of the Quick-FLIC. A total of 190 patients who received care from the National Cancer Centre of Singapore completed a questionnaire package at baseline. Patients filled in a retest questionnaire on average 2 weeks after baseline to assess test–retest reliability and responsiveness to change. The Quick-FLIC scores correlated well with the Functional Assessment of Chronic Therapy – General scores (r=0.78). Patients with different treatment status, performance status and self-rated health had significantly different Quick-FLIC scores in the expected directions (ANOVA; each P<0.001). Internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha=0.87) and 2-week test–retest reliability (intraclass correlation=0.81) were also satisfactory. The measure was responsive to changes in health status (P<0.001). The Quick-FLIC is a valid and reliable measure of health-related quality of life of cancer patients. The shortening of established health-related quality of life instruments should be considered in order to reduce the burden of having patients to answer lengthy questionnaires.

Birthweight and psychological distress in adult twins: a longitudinal study

AIM

To assess the relation between birthweight and psychological distress as measured by the Malaise Inventory in adult twins.

METHODS

Data were drawn from the 1958 British birth cohort study, which included twins followed from birth to age 42 y. We examined the relation between birthweight and psychological distress at ages 23, 33 and 42 y measured by the psychological scale of the Malaise Inventory. Analyses were performed both between subjects (n = 282) and within twin pairs (n = 112). The generalized estimating equations approach was used to handle the repeated measurements.

RESULTS

Between the 282 twins, the difference in psychological distress score was -0.45 (95% confidence interval -0.74 to -0.15) per Z-score increase in birthweight-for-gestational age. Within twin pairs, the heavier co-twins tended to have a psychological distress score lower than that of their lighter co-twins, the mean difference being -0.35 (-0.78 to 0.09).

CONCLUSION

Results from the between-subject analysis agreed with previous findings from adult singletons that psychological health is related to birthweight. The within-pair analysis suggested a similar relation but did not attain statistical significance.

Modelling Variability of Quality of Life Scores: A Study of Questionnaire Version and Bilingualism

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Modelling variability of quality of life scores can not only improve our understanding of the characteristics of the measurement tools, but also shed light on sample size requirements. Although the English and Chinese versions of the Short Form 36 Health Survey (SF-36) are commonly considered equivalent, they have not been compared in terms of variability. Furthermore, bilingual and monolingual persons may differ in cognition and responses to questionnaires.

METHODS

In a community-based survey of quality of life in Singapore, a society where both English and Chinese are widely used and bilingualism is prevalent, 2590 respondents answered either version of the SF-36. We studied the impact of questionnaire version and bilingualism on the variability of SF-36 scores by regression modelling, with adjustment for covariates.

RESULTS

The Chinese version had smaller variances in the physical functioning (PF) and the physical component summary scores than the English version. The variance ratios (VRs) were respectively 0.32 and 0.60 (each p < 0.01), controlling for covariates. Bilingualism was not associated with variability in SF-36 scores except PF (VR = 0.78; p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

As a result of a smaller variance, using the Chinese version of SF-36 among bilingual Chinese people may require a smaller sample size than using the English version.

Pain Control in a Randomized, Controlled, Clinical Trial Comparing Moist Exposed Burn Ointment and Conventional Methods in Patients With Partial-Thickness Burns

Conventional management of partial-thickness burn wounds includes the use of paraffin gauze dressing, frequently with topical silver-based antibacterial creams. Some creams form an overlying slough that renders wound assessment difficult and are painful upon application. An alternative to conventional management, moist exposed burn ointment (MEBO), has been proposed as a topical agent that may accelerate wound healing and have antibacterial and analgesic properties. One hundred fifteen patients with partial-thickness burns were randomly assigned to conventional (n = 58) or MEBO treatment (n = 57). A verbal numerical rating score of pain was made in the morning, after burn dressing, and some 8 hours later. Patient pain profiles were summarized by locally weighted regression smoothing technique curves and the difference between treatments estimated using multilevel regression techniques. Mean verbal numerical rating scale pain levels (cm) in week 1 for all patients were highest at 3.2 for the after dressing assessment, lowest in the evening at 2.6, and intermediate in the morning at 3.0. This pattern continued at similar levels in week 2 and then declined by a mean of 0.5 in all groups in week 3. There was little evidence to suggest a difference in pain levels by treatment group with the exception of the postdressing pain levels in the first week when those receiving MEBO had a mean level of 0.7 cm (95% confidence interval, 0.2 to 1.1) lower than those on conventional therapy. MEBO appeared to bring greater pain relief for the postdressing assessment during the first week after burns. This initial relief, together with comparable pain levels experienced on other occasions, indicates that MEBO could be an alternative to conventional burns management.

Measuring quality of life in Chinese cancer patients: a new version of the Functional Living Index for Cancer (Chinese)

INTRODUCTION

Since its translation into Chinese, the Functional Living Index for Cancer (FLIC) has not been widely received due to some of its difficulties. We modified its visual analogue scale (VAS) to an ordered categorical scale and changed some of the wording in the instrument. This study examined the measurement properties of the modified FLIC.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The modified version of FLIC and the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy (FACT-G Chinese version 4) were filled in by 140 patients recruited from the National Cancer Centre Singapore. The patients' FLIC scores were compared with their clinical characteristics to establish known-group validity. Convergent and divergent validity of FLIC were examined by correlation analysis with FACT-G and its sub-scales. Cronbach's alpha and relative efficiency were also examined.

RESULTS

FLIC and most of its sub-scales could indicate a clear and statistically significant difference of quality of life (QOL) according to patients' performance status and treatment status. FLIC strongly correlated with FACT-G. The Physical, Psychological, and Symptoms sub-scales of FLIC converged to and diverged from FACT-G sub-scales as conceptually expected. Cronbach's alpha indicated a satisfactory level of reliability. FLIC appeared to be more efficient than FACT-G, meaning that a smaller sample size will be required for FLIC than for FACT-G to achieve the same research purpose.

CONCLUSIONS

The modified version of FLIC was found to have achieved satisfactory measurement properties. This is a user-friendly alternative to the original FLIC.

Size at birth and neonatal and postneonatal mortality

Birthweight is a crude indicator of size at birth. Some neonatologists and obstetricians have advocated the use of ponderal index and birthlength to characterize size at birth. This paper examines the associations between various size-at-birth indicators and neonatal and postneonatal mortality, with an emphasis on ponderal index and birthlength. Size at birth, gestational age and mortality data for about one million babies born alive in Sweden between 1987 and 1995 were collected from the Swedish Medical Birth Registry. A multinomial logit regression was used to estimate conditional odds ratios. Birthlength and ponderal index were independently associated with neonatal and postneonatal mortality. In the latter period, ponderal index was only weakly associated with mortality. The associations were not sensitive to exclusion of cases of congenital anomalies and adjustment for gestational age.

CONCLUSION

Birthlength is strongly associated with both neonatal and postneonatal mortality; ponderal index is strongly associated with neonatal, but weakly with postneonatal mortality. The findings are consistent with previous hypotheses about a transient effect of ponderal index and a persistent effect of birthlength.

The influence of the Chinese zodiac on fertility in Hong Kong SAR

The annual total of births in Hong Kong SAR fell substantially in the past 20 years; hence the total fertility rate (TFR) followed the downward trend and dropped to a low of 0.9 below replacement level in 2000. Despite the long-term downward trend, short-run increases in the annual total of births and the TFR were exhibited. Such temporary fertility increases are identified in the Dragon Years of 1988 and 2000. The phenomenon of fertility changes associated with zodiacal animal years is examined in this paper with a view to gaining some insight into whether Chinese cultural preferences and folklore beliefs might have influenced prospective parents' reproductive behaviour. The paper explains the underlying philosophy of the Chinese astrological tradition and discusses how zodiacal preferences affect fertility between 1976 and 2000. The paper also explores why zodiacal influences on Chinese fertility before 1976 did not exist. It is unquestionable that the Dragon Year preference exerts an influence on fertility of modern Chinese populations through zodiacal birth-timing motivations. Birth rate rise in the Dragon Year is due to changes in timing of births that will have little effect on cumulative fertility.

Association between psychological symptoms in adults and growth in early life: longitudinal follow up study

OBJECTIVES

To test the hypothesis that birth weight for gestational age and weight gain in early childhood have a long term association with psychological distress in adults.

DESIGN

Longitudinal study of 1958 birth cohort followed to age 42 years.

SETTING

Population based birth cohort study.

PARTICIPANTS

9731 cohort members with valid perinatal, postnatal, and adult data.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Malaise inventory scores measured at ages 23, 33, and 42 years. Generalised estimating equations approach used to analyse repeated measures.

RESULTS

Psychological distress score was inversely related to birthweight z score and weight gain from birth to the age of 7 years. A unit increase in birthweight z score or childhood weight gain was associated with a mean reduction in psychological distress score of 0.10 (95% confidence interval 0.05 to 0.15) and 0.06 (0.02 to 0.10), respectively. Birth weight and weight gain were also inversely related to the odds of having a high level of psychological distress, with odds ratios being 0.90 (0.85 to 0.95) and 0.93 (0.89 to 0.98), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Psychological health in adults is related to fetal growth and growth in early childhood.

Benn Index at birth is associated with postnatal linear growth

While previous research has suggested that body thinness is related to subsequent linear growth in children, it is unclear whether thinness at birth is related to linear growth in newborns and catch-up growth in small-forgestational age newborns. Drawing on data from a longitudinal growth study of 3,650 full-term Swedish babies, this study examines linear growth from birth to 6 months of age in three groups of newborns with short (< -2 SDS), appropriate (-2 to 2 SDS) and long (> 2 SDS) body length for gestational age. Among infants short at birth, the Benn Index (kg/m2.69) at birth was not related to the odds of short stature (< -2 SDS) at age 6 months (odds ratio = 1.03; p > 0.10). Nonetheless, the Benn Index was positively related to growth velocity in the first 6 months of life in the short (p = 0.060), appropriate (p < 0.05), and tall (p < 0.05) for gestational age newborns. Use of the Ponderal Index (kg/m3) would give similar results. The findings suggest that nutritional status at birth is related to linear growth velocity in newborns.

Agreement or prediction: asking and answering the right question

INTRODUCTION

Measuring agreement and measuring predictive ability are similar but distinct problems. Failure to appreciate the conceptual and practical differences may lead clinical researchers to give the right answer to the wrong question.

METHODS

We illustrate the relation and difference between measuring agreement and predictive ability in a non-technical way. We provide a real example investigating the feasibility of using preoperative breast cancer tumour size measurements to estimate postoperative histological size. The intraclass correlation and R-squared are calculated to ascertain the level of agreement and predictive ability respectively.

RESULTS

Analysis of agreement and analysis of predictive ability serve different purposes. The optimal solution found in terms of agreement may be different from that found for prediction.

CONCLUSIONS

A careful clarification of the goal of an investigation is important. Using an inappropriate analysis can lead to misleading results, or to results that do not really answer the research question of interest.

Adjustment for selection bias in cohort studies: an application of a probit model with selectivity to life course epidemiology

Sample attrition is potentially a source of bias in cohort studies. The outcome may not be observed in a considerable proportion of the subjects. This article proposes the application of a probit model with sample selection to handle the problem. Two equations are simultaneously estimated and their error terms allowed to correlate: one regressing an observed outcome on a set of baseline variables, another regressing the probability of the outcome being observed upon a set of (perhaps the same) baseline variables. The method was applied to a study of a birth cohort, half of whose members were interviewed again at age 26. Baseline variables were observed for all the subjects included. The focus was on the association between birth weight and mental health in adults. The probit model with sample selection revealed a stronger and more significant (P = 0.037) relation between birth weight and mental health than an ordinary probit regression model (P = 0.170). Interpretation and practical considerations are discussed.

Association between size at birth, paediatric diarrhoeal incidence and postnatal growth

This study tests the hypothesis that size at birth is associated with diarrhoeal incidence from birth to 24 mo of age, and the hypothesis that diarrhoeal incidence from birth to 24 mo is associated with body size at age 24 mo. This is a longitudinal study of 1476 infants born in Lahore. Pakistan, in 1984-1987. Diarrhoeal incidence was enumerated monthly. A generalized estimating equations approach with Poisson regression showed that birthlength standard deviation score (SDS) and ponderal index at birth (rate ratio = 1.01 and 1.00; each p > 0.05) were not significantly associated with diarrhoeal incidence. Multiple linear regression showed that diarrhoeal incidence was significantly associated with weight SDS and body mass index at 24 mo (regression coefficient or beta = -0.58 and -1.02: each p < 0.05). but not with height SDS (beta = -0.10: p > 0.05). The associations were mainly due to a transient effect of diarrhoea in the period 18-24 mo.

CONCLUSION

Prevention of low birthweight is unlikely to have an impact on diarrhoeal incidence in infants. Control of diarrhoeal incidence may not improve the growth of infants in developing countries.

The need for collaboration between clinicians and statisticians: some experience and examples

INTRODUCTION

Very often we see poor communication and collaboration between clinicians and statisticians. Both sides may fail to realise the importance of a truly collaborative effort. In this paper we give examples to illustrate some problems clinicians and statisticians may encounter when they do not have the full support of each other. The aim is to convince both parties the importance of a truly collaborative effort.

METHODS

Real examples in various medical research areas are drawn from the authors' practical experience for illustration. The examples cover various research aspects such as the use of computer software, regression analysis and interpretation of findings.

RESULTS

Superficial collaboration between clinicians and statisticians may lead to serious problems and sub-optimal research practice that may not be obvious in the first sight. Some of the barriers to effective communication and collaboration are discussed.

CONCLUSIONS

On the one hand, robust statistical practice is vital in many medical research projects. On the other hand, medical thinking is important in the formulation and application of statistical strategies. Statistical inputs should be integrated into medical research projects throughout the whole research process. Sporadic contacts between clinicians and statisticians are not enough. Both parties must learn to communicate more effectively and to be willing to collaborate with each other.

Parametric modelling of neonatal mortality in relation to size at birth

We use a richly parameterized model to analyse the effects of shortness and thinness at birth on neonatal mortality in Swedish live-born singletons. The model captures the hazard of neonatal mortality according to the function alpha x exp(-gamma x t) + delta, where t represents age. Covariates are allowed to simultaneously influence the initial excess hazard, the rate of decay, and the long-term hazard. Among term newborns, birth length for gestational age had a stronger effect on the long-term hazard and a weaker effect on the initial excess hazard than the Ponderal index. The initial excess hazard associated with a low Ponderal index tended to decay quickly. Among preterm newborns, a higher birth length for gestational age was associated with lower initial and long-term hazards, and with a faster rate of decay of the initial excess hazard. In contrast, the Ponderal index was not associated with the long-term hazard. We discuss the interpretability of the model and its potential use in neonatology and medical demography. We also compare the model to a Cox model with time-dependent covariates.

Seasonality of growth in Shanghai infants (n=4128) born in 11 consecutive years

OBJECTIVE

To describe the seasonal growth patterns in Shanghai infants, to explore seasonal time lag between weight gain and length gain, and to investigate the long-term effect of birth season on early postnatal growth.

DESIGN

Community-based longitudinal study.

SETTING

Shanghai, People's Republic of China.

METHOD

Children were followed up monthly from 1 to 6 months, 3 monthly from 6 to 12 months, and 6 monthly from 12 to 24 months.

SUBJECTS

A total of 6018 children born between 1 January 1980 and 31 December 1990.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Weight gain, length gain and change in body mass index (BMI) over the seasons of the year.

RESULTS

The infants tended to grow faster in height in spring and summer, and faster in weight and BMI in autumn and winter. The seasonal effect on weight gain and length gain is largely independent. The mean length value at 1 month of age was about 2.0 cm higher in infants born in May to July than in those born in November to February. At 24 months of age this difference was reduced to about 0.7 cm.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a clear and consistent seasonality in growth in Shanghai infants. The seasonality seems to act independently on weight and length. Birth month has some association with attained size, but this is reduced during the first 2 y of life.

Social patterns of birth weight in Hong Kong, 1984-1997

Fetal growth is an indicator of social inequalities in health that may have a long-term impact persisting into later life. Little is known about the social patterns of birth weight in Hong Kong. This is a study of live-born singletons from 1984 to 1997 in a Hong Kong birth registry. Ordinary least-squares regression and logistic regression are used to analyse birth weight and low birth weight (< 2500 g), respectively. A gradient of birth weight and prevalence of low birth weight is demonstrated according to mothers' educational attainment. In relation to babies of the most educated mothers, babies of the least educated mothers had a mean deficit of 46g in birth weight and an odds ratio of 1.56 of low birth weight (each P<0.05). This social gradient was hidden unless parity was adjusted for. Unexpectedly, migrants from mainland China delivered heavier rather than lighter babies (each P<0.05). Type of living quarters and parental relation were also related to birth weight and low birth weight (each P<0.05). Continuous monitoring of the social patterns of birth weight is recommended.

Fetal growth, early postnatal growth and motor development in Pakistani infants

BACKGROUND

Studies have often compared the postnatal motor development of 'small' versus 'normal' newborns. Not much is known about the associations between a broad spectrum of size at birth and motor development. The effect of early postnatal growth on motor development is little researched. Growth failure in terms of shortness and thinness should be differentiated, but not many studies have the data for this analysis.

METHODS

This is a longitudinal study of infants born in Lahore, Pakistan, between 1984 and 1987. Age at commencement of independent walking and age at 'building a 3-cube tower' were taken as indicators of gross and fine motor development, respectively. Size at birth was captured by length and thinness as continuous variables; postnatal growth from birth to 6 months of age was measured by changes in length and thinness. Adjustment for covariates and handling of censored cases were performed by generalized log gamma regression.

RESULTS

Thinness at birth and postnatal stunting and wasting had a linear, inverse association with gross motor development (each P < 0.05). Birth length had a non-linear, inverse association with this outcome (P < 0.05). Birth length, thinness at birth and postnatal wasting had a linear, inverse association with fine motor development (each P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Both fetal and early postnatal growth over a broad spectrum may affect infants' motor development. It is not just the babies who were very small at birth that suffered. Birth length appeared to be more influential than other anthropometric indicators.

Mortality of twins and singletons by gestational age: a varying-coefficient approach

This study used data from the Swedish Medical Birth Registry between 1982 and 1995 to address the question of whether there is higher mortality in twins in relation to singletons of the same gestational age and to examine the optimal gestational age range for twins. A "varying-coefficient approach" was adopted to estimate the gestational age-specific relative and absolute risks of mortality in twins and singletons, adjusting for size at birth and risk factors of short gestational duration. The models showed that twins born between 29 and 37 weeks of gestation had lower mortality than did singletons of the same gestational age. Twins born at older gestational age had higher mortality than did their singleton counterparts, because longer gestational duration was more advantageous to singletons than to twins. Without adjustment for size at birth, there was an upturn of mortality in twins born after 38 weeks. It is postulated that twins have better health than singletons initially, but they could not enjoy the benefit of a longer gestational duration as much as singletons could. The optimal gestational age for twins appeared to be 37-39 weeks according to neonatal and infant mortality.

Secular change in growth over one decade (1980-1990) in Shanghai infants

The aims of this study were to describe secular changes in body size in Shanghai infants, to compare the growth pattern between Shanghai children and Swedish children, and to explore the association of growth rate with parental body size, feeding practice and child health status. The study series consisted of 6,018 longitudinally followed full-term children, born between 1st January 1980 and 31st December 1990 in Fenglin Community, Shanghai. The data clearly show a positive secular trend in growth in Shanghai over the decade of observation; at 12 months, the mean increase in weight and length were 0.32 kg and 0.64 cm, and at 24 months they were 0.54 kg and 1.29 cm. The general growth pattern observed in the children in comparison with the Swedish reference was of fast growth in the first few months of life, and faltering between 9 and 24 months of age. Age at introduction of solid food, weaning age and parental body size were related to growth velocity in the first two years. There was little cumulative effect of diarrhoea on growth in the first two years of life.

Fetal growth and early postnatal growth are related to blood pressure in adults

It is commonly agreed that birth weight is associated with blood pressure in adults. However, not much is known about birth length, ponderal index, and early postnatal growth, whose effects on adult blood pressure, if any, can affect the interpretation of the birth weight-blood pressure association. This study examined the association between fetal growth, early postnatal growth, and blood pressure in Chinese adults. One hundred twenty-two subjects born in Hong Kong in 1967 were followed from birth to age 30 years. Multiple linear regression was used to analyze the association between size at birth, postnatal changes in body size, and systolic and diastolic blood pressure at age 30 years. Having adjusted for potential confounders and each other explanatory variable, it is found that birth length standard deviation score (regression coefficient or beta=-3.2), ponderal index at birth (beta=-1.8), and postnatal changes in ponderal index from age 6 months to 18 months (beta=-2.2) were inversely associated with systolic blood pressure (each P<0.05). Postnatal changes in length standard deviation score were not significantly associated with systolic blood pressure. Birth length standard deviation score was inversely associated with diastolic blood pressure at age 30 years (beta=-2.6; P<0.05). Other anthropometric variables were not associated with diastolic blood pressure. The results support the hypotheses that both fetal growth and early postnatal growth may have a long-term impact on blood pressure in adults. It also highlights the importance of differentiating length and weight for length.

Marital status and mortality in British women: a longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

Most previous studies on marital status and mortality did not adjust for the effect of 'marital selection'. Little research has been done about the relation between marital status and mortality in British women, with the exception of research on bereavement.

METHODS

Subjects consisted of women aged > or = 35 in a longitudinal study of a nationally representative sample. Marital status and covariates were enumerated at a baseline interview in 1984/85 and a follow-up interview in 1991/92. Death data up to May 1997 were obtained from the National Health Service Central Register. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) for the single, divorced and widowed states in relation to the married state.

RESULTS

Having adjusted for age and martial selection factors, being single (HR = 1.45) was significantly associated with higher all-cause mortality. Being divorced and being widowed showed no excess mortality risk (each HR = 1.09).

CONCLUSIONS

Being single was associated with higher mortality. A causal interpretation is plausible. Being divorced and being widowed were not associated with higher mortality.

The impact of water supplies and sanitation on growth in Chinese children

In many developing countries, improvement in water supplies has not been supplemented by improvement in sanitation facilities. Moreover, health education is rarely included in environmental hygiene programmes. Community health workers need to know if water supplies and sanitation have independent or complementary effects on health. This study analysed the weight data of 1,045 Chinese children aged 60 months or below. Regression models with interaction terms were tested against a model with main effects only. There was no evidence of interaction between water supplies and sanitation measures. The results show that water supplies and toilet facilities had independent associations with growth. Improved water source (P = 0.01) and flush-toilet (P = 0.06) were found positively associated with the children's weight. Presence of excreta in the home had a negative, but not statistically significant, association with weight.

Accidents, assaults, and marital status

Marriage may reduce the risk of accidents and assaults by promoting social control of health behavior. This study examines the impact of marital status on non-fatal accidents and assaults in young British women. Data is drawn from a large cohort study of the people born in 1958. Rate ratios of overall and specific incidence of non-fatal accidents and assaults are determined by negative binomial regression, with adjustment for socio-economic and behavioral confounders. The null hypothesis of no association between marital status and incidence of non-fatal accidents and assaults is rejected. It is suggested that, independent of parental status, more exposure to marriage and less exposure to marital dissolution may reduce accidents and assaults.

Health and adverse selection into marriage: evidence from a study of the 1958 British birth cohort

Despite much research on the relationship between marital status and health, the confounding effects of marital selection are not well understood. Even less is known about 'adverse selection', the phenomenon that people with poor health or health related attributes have a higher chance of marriage. Using data from the National Child Development Study, a longitudinal study of the 1958 British birth cohort, this paper examines the effects of factors that can select single people into early or later marriages. The selection factors are from three domains, namely, health status, socioeconomic status, and risk-taking behaviour. It is found that, from age 16-23 y, adverse selection is prevalent. People from a lower socio-economic background and smokers are more likely to be married. This has the potential to suppress any association between marriage and health. Meanwhile, men with medical problems are less likely to marry. At ages from 23-33 y, adverse selection reduces and those who have better life chances are more likely to get married. This has the potential of creating a spurious relation between marriage and health. These findings shed light on the understanding of the confounding effects of marital selection according to different life stages.