Coronary Artery Calcium Scores in Older Adults With Diabetes and Their Association With Diabetes-Specific Risk Enhancers (from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study)

Coronary artery calcium (CAC) is a validated marker of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk; however, it is not routinely incorporated in ASCVD risk prediction in older adults with diabetes. We sought to assess the CAC distribution among this demographic and its association with "diabetes-specific risk enhancers," which are known to be associated with increased ASCVD risk. We used the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) study data, including adults aged >75 years with diabetes, who had their CAC measured at ARIC visit 7 (2018 to 2019). The demographic characteristics of participants and their CAC distribution were analyzed using descriptive statistics. Multivariable-adjusted logistic regression models were used to estimate the association between diabetes-specific risk enhancers (duration of diabetes, albuminuria, chronic kidney disease, retinopathy, neuropathy, and ankle-brachial index) and elevated CAC, adjusting for age, gender, race, education level, dyslipidemia, hypertension, physical activity, smoking status, and family history of coronary heart disease. The mean age in our sample was 79.9 (SD 3.97) years, with 56.6% women and 62.1% White. The CAC scores were heterogenous, and the median CAC score was higher in participants with a greater number of diabetes risk enhancers, regardless of gender. In the multivariable-adjusted logistic regression models, participants with ≥2 diabetes-specific risk enhancers had greater odds of elevated CAC than those with <2 (odds ratio 2.31, 95% confidence interval 1.34 to 3.98). In conclusion, the distribution of CAC was heterogeneous among older adults with diabetes, with the CAC burden associated with the number of diabetes risk-enhancing factors present. These data may have implications for prognostication in older patients with diabetes and supports the possible incorporation of CAC in the assessment of cardiovascular disease risk in this population.

Investigating the association of traditional and non-traditional tobacco product use with subclinical and clinical cardiovascular disease: The Cross-Cohort Collaboration-Tobacco working group rationale, design, and methodology

While the impact of combustible cigarette smoking on cardiovascular disease (CVD) is well-established, the longitudinal association of non-traditional tobacco products with subclinical and clinical CVD has not been fully explored due to: 1) limited data availability; and 2) the lack of well-phenotyped prospective cohorts. Therefore, there is the need for sufficiently powered well-phenotyped datasets to fully elucidate the CVD risks associated with non-cigarette tobacco products. The Cross-Cohort Collaboration (CCC)-Tobacco is a harmonized dataset of 23 prospective cohort studies predominantly in the US. A priori defined variables collected from each cohort included baseline characteristics, details of traditional and non-traditional tobacco product use, inflammatory markers, and outcomes including subclinical and clinical CVD. The definitions of the variables in each cohort were systematically evaluated by a team of two physician-scientists and a biostatistician. Herein, we describe the method of data acquisition and harmonization and the baseline sociodemographic and risk profile of participants in the combined CCC-Tobacco dataset. The total number of participants in the pooled cohort is 322782 (mean age: 59.7 ± 11.8 years) of which 76% are women. White individuals make up the majority (73.1%), although there is good representation of other race and ethnicity groups including African American (15.6%) and Hispanic/Latino individuals (6.4%). The prevalence of participants who never smoked, formerly smoked, and currently smoke combustible cigarettes is 50%, 36%, and 14%, respectively. The prevalence of current and former cigar, pipe, and smokeless tobacco is 7.3%, 6.4%, and 8.6%, respectively. E-cigarette use was measured only in follow-up visits of select studies, totaling 1704 former and current users. CCC-Tobacco is a large, pooled cohort dataset that is uniquely designed with increased power to expand knowledge regarding the association of traditional and non-traditional tobacco use with subclinical and clinical CVD, with extension to understudied groups including women and individuals from underrepresented racial-ethnic groups.

Coronary Artery Calcium Dispersion and Cause-Specific Mortality

Coronary artery calcium (CAC) measures subclinical atherosclerosis and improves risk stratification. CAC characteristics-including vessel(s) involved, number of vessels, volume, and density-have been shown to differentially impact risk. We assessed how dispersion-either the number of calcified vessels or CAC phenotype (diffuse, normal, and concentrated)-impacted cause-specific mortality. The CAC Consortium is a retrospective cohort of 66,636 participants without coronary heart disease (CHD) who underwent CAC scoring. This study included patients with CAC >0 (n = 28,147). CAC area, CAC density, and CAC phenotypes (derived from the index of diffusion = 1 - [CAC in most concentrated vessel/total Agatston score]) were calculated. The associations between CAC characteristics and cause-specific mortality were assessed. The participant details included (n = 28,147): mean age 58.3 years, 25% female, 89.6% White, and 66% had 2+ calcified vessels. Diabetes, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia were predictors of multivessel involvement (p <0.001). After controlling for the overall CAC score, those with 4-vessel CAC involvement had more CAC area and less dense calcifications than those with 1-vessel. There was a graded increase in all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD)- and CHD-specific mortality as the number of calcified vessels increased. Among those with ≥2 vessels involved (n = 18,516), a diffuse phenotype was associated with a higher CVD-specific mortality and had a trend toward higher all-cause and CHD-specific mortality than a concentrated CAC phenotype. Diffuse CAC involvement was characterized by less dense calcification, more CAC area, multiple coronary vessel involvement, and presence of certain traditional risk factors. There is a graded increase in all-cause and CVD- and CHD-specific mortality with increasing CAC dispersion.

Discordance Between Coronary Artery Calcium Area and Density Predicts Long-Term Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk

BACKGROUND

Coronary artery calcium (CAC) is commonly quantified as the product of 2 generally correlated measures: plaque area and calcium density.

OBJECTIVES

The authors sought to determine whether discordance between calcium area and density has long-term prognostic importance in atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk.

METHODS

The authors studied 10,373 primary prevention participants from the CAC Consortium with CAC >0. Based on their median values, calcium area and mean calcium density were divided into 4 mutually exclusive concordant/discordant groups. Cox proportional hazards regression assessed the association of calcium area/density groups with ASCVD mortality over a median of 11.7 years, adjusting for traditional risk factors and the Agatston CAC score.

RESULTS

The mean age was 56.7 years, and 24% were female. The prevalence of plaque discordance was 19% (9% low calcium area/high calcium density, 10% high calcium area/low calcium density). Female sex (odds ratio [OR]: 1.48 [95% CI: 1.27-1.74]) and body mass index (OR: 0.81 [95% CI: 0.76-0.87], per 5 kg/m2 higher) were significantly associated with high calcium density discordance, whereas diabetes (OR: 2.23 [95% CI: 1.85-3.19]) was most strongly associated with discordantly low calcium density. Compared to those with low calcium area/low calcium density, individuals with low calcium area/high calcium density had a 71% lower risk of ASCVD death (HR: 0.29 [95% CI: 0.09-0.95]).

CONCLUSIONS

For a given CAC score, high calcium density relative to plaque area confers lower long-term ASCVD risk, likely serving as an imaging marker of biological resilience for lesion vulnerability. Additional research is needed to define a robust definition of calcium area/density discordance for routine clinical risk prediction.

The Interplay of Race/Ethnicity and Obesity on the Incidence of Venous Thromboembolism

INTRODUCTION

Factors predisposing asymptomatic individuals within the community to venous thromboembolism are not fully understood. This study characterizes the incidence and determinants of venous thromboembolism among the Multiethnic Study of Atherosclerosis cohort with a focus on race/ethnicity and obesity.

METHODS

This study (analyzed in 2020-2021) used the Multiethnic Study of Atherosclerosis cohort (2000-2017), which included participants with diverse ethnic/racial backgrounds aged 45-84 years without cardiovascular disease at baseline. The primary endpoint was time to diagnosis of venous thromboembolism defined using International Classification of Diseases codes (415, 451, 453, 126, 180, and 182). Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios of the predictors of venous thromboembolism were calculated with a focus on the interaction between obesity and race/ethnicity categories.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up period of 14 years, 233 individuals developed venous thromboembolism. Incidence rates (per 1,000 person-years) varied across racial/ethnic groups with the highest incidence among Black (4.02) followed by White (2.98), Hispanic (2.08), and Chinese (0.79) participants. There was a stepwise increase in the incidence rate of venous thromboembolism with increasing BMI regardless of race/ethnicity: normal (1.95), overweight (2.52), obese (3.63), and morbidly obese (4.55). The association between BMI and venous thromboembolism was strongest among non-White women with the highest incidence rate for obese (4.8) compared with non-obese (1.6). The interaction among obesity, gender, and race was statistically significant (p=0.01) in non-White obese women. Risk of venous thromboembolism increased with age for all race/ethnicities.

CONCLUSIONS

This study finds that obesity may confer an increased risk for venous thromboembolism among non-White women compared with other groups-White men, White women, and non-White men.

Omega-3 fatty acids, subclinical atherosclerosis, and cardiovascular events: Implications for primary prevention

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

High-dose eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) therapy was beneficial in high-risk patients without clinical cardiovascular disease (CVD). Whether higher plasma levels of EPA and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) have similar benefits in those without subclinical CVD is unclear. We aim to evaluate the interplay between plasma omega-3 fatty acids and coronary artery calcium (CAC) in relation to CVD events.

METHODS

We examined 6568 participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) with plasma EPA and DHA levels and CAC measured at baseline. The primary outcome was incident CVD events (myocardial infarction, angina, cardiac arrest, stroke, CVD death). Hazard ratios for the primary outcome were adjusted for potential confounder using Cox regression.

RESULTS

Mean ± SD age was 62.1 ± 10.2 years and 52.9% were females. The median follow-up time was 15.6 years. Higher loge(EPA) (adjusted hazard ratio, aHR = 0.83; 95% CI, 0.74-0.94) and loge(DHA) (aHR = 0.79; 95% CI, 0.66-0.96) were independently associated with fewer CVD events. The difference in absolute CVD event rates between lowest vs. highest EPA tertile increased at higher CAC levels. The adjusted HR for highest vs. lowest EPA tertile within CAC = 0 was 1.02 (95% CI, 0.72-1.46), CAC = 1-99 was 0.71 (95% CI, 0.51-0.99), and CAC≥100 was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.52-0.84). A similar association was seen in tertiles of DHA by CAC category.

CONCLUSIONS

In an ethnically diverse population free of clinical CVD, higher plasma omega-3 fatty acid levels were associated with fewer long-term CVD events. The absolute decrease in CVD events with higher omega-3 fatty acid levels was more apparent at higher CAC scores.

Coronary Artery Calcium for Risk Stratification of Sudden Cardiac Death: The Coronary Artery Calcium Consortium

BACKGROUND

Coronary artery calcium (CAC) is a marker of plaque burden. Whether CAC improves risk stratification for incident sudden cardiac death (SCD) beyond atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk factors is unknown.

OBJECTIVES

SCD is a common initial manifestation of coronary heart disease (CHD); however, SCD risk prediction remains elusive.

METHODS

The authors studied 66,636 primary prevention patients from the CAC Consortium. Multivariable competing risks regression and C-statistics were used to assess the association between CAC and SCD, adjusting for demographics and traditional risk factors.

RESULTS

The mean age was 54.4 years, 33% were women, 11% were of non-White ethnicity, and 55% had CAC >0. A total of 211 SCD events (0.3%) were observed during a median follow-up of 10.6 years, 91% occurring among those with baseline CAC >0. Compared with CAC = 0, there was a stepwise higher risk (P trend < 0.001) in SCD for CAC 100 to 399 (subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR]: 2.8; 95% CI: 1.6-5.0), CAC 400 to 999 (SHR: 4.0; 95% CI: 2.2-7.3), and CAC >1,000 (SHR: 4.9; 95% CI: 2.6-9.9). CAC provided incremental improvements in the C-statistic for the prediction of SCD among individuals with a 10-year risk <7.5% (ΔC-statistic = +0.046; P = 0.02) and 7.5% to 20% (ΔC-statistic = +0.069; P = 0.003), which were larger when compared with persons with a 10-year risk >20% (ΔC-statistic = +0.01; P = 0.54).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher CAC burden strongly associates with incident SCD beyond traditional risk factors, particularly among primary prevention patients with low-intermediate risk. SCD risk stratification can be useful in the early stages of CHD through the measurement of CAC, identifying patients most likely to benefit from further downstream testing.

Distribution of Coronary Artery Calcium by Age, Sex, and Race Among Patients 30-45 Years Old

BACKGROUND

Coronary artery calcium (CAC) is a measure of atherosclerotic burden and is well-validated for risk stratification in middle- to older-aged adults. Few studies have investigated CAC in younger adults, and there is no calculator for determining age-, sex-, and race-based percentiles among individuals aged <45 years.

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to determine the probability of CAC >0 and develop age-sex-race percentiles for U.S. adults aged 30-45 years.

METHODS

We harmonized 3 datasets-CARDIA (Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults), the CAC Consortium, and the Walter Reed Cohort-to study CAC in 19,725 asymptomatic Black and White individuals aged 30-45 years without known atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. After weighting each cohort equally, the probability of CAC >0 and age-sex-race percentiles of CAC distributions were estimated using nonparametric techniques.

RESULTS

The prevalence of CAC >0 was 26% among White males, 16% among Black males, 10% among White females, and 7% among Black females. CAC >0 automatically placed all females at >90th percentile. CAC >0 placed White males at the 90th percentile at age 34 years compared with Black males at age 37 years. An interactive webpage allows one to enter an age, sex, race, and CAC score to obtain the corresponding estimated percentile.

CONCLUSIONS

In a large cohort of U.S. adults aged 30-45 years without symptomatic atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, the probability of CAC >0 varied by age, sex, and race. Estimated percentiles may help interpretation of CAC scores among young adults relative to their age-sex-race matched peers and can henceforth be included in CAC score reporting.

Coronary artery calcium scores indicating secondary prevention level risk: Findings from the CAC consortium and FOURIER trial

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Coronary artery calcium (CAC) burden displays a stepwise association with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk. Among primary prevention patients, we sought to determine the CAC scores equivalent to ASCVD mortality rates observed in the FOURIER trial, a modern secondary prevention cohort.

METHODS AND RESULTS

For the main analysis, we included participants from the CAC Consortium ≥50 years old with a 10-year ASCVD risk ≥7.5% (n = 20,207). Poisson regression was used to define the relationship between CAC and annual ASCVD mortality. Equations generated from the regression models were then used to derive CAC scores associated with equivalent annual ASCVD mortality as observed in FOURIER placebo participants from the overall trial and in key trial subgroups. The CAC Consortium participants had a similar age (65.5 versus 62.5 years) and sex (22% versus 24% female) distribution as FOURIER. The annualized ASCVD mortality rate in FOURIER participants (0.766 per 100 person-years) corresponded to a CAC score of 781 (418-1467). A CAC score of 255 (162-394) corresponded to an ASCVD mortality rate equivalent to the lowest risk FOURIER subgroup (presence of myocardial infarction >2 years prior to trial enrollment). No CAC score produced a risk equivalent to high-risk FOURIER subgroups, particularly those with symptomatic peripheral arterial disease and/or multivessel coronary heart disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Primary prevention individuals with increased CAC burden may have annualized ASCVD mortality rates equivalent to persons with stable secondary prevention-level risk. These findings argue for a risk continuum between higher risk primary prevention and stable secondary prevention patients, as their ASCVD risks may overlap.

Mean Versus Peak Coronary Calcium Density on Non-Contrast CT: Calcium Scoring and ASCVD Risk Prediction

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to assess the relationship between mean vs peak calcified plaque density and their impact on calculating coronary artery calcium (CAC) scores and to compare the corresponding differential prediction of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality.

BACKGROUND

The Agatston CAC score is quantified per lesion as the product of plaque area and a 4-level categorical peak calcium density factor. However, mean calcium density may more accurately measure the heterogenous mixture of lipid-rich, fibrous, and calcified plaque reflective of ASCVD risk.

METHODS

We included 10,373 individuals from the CAC Consortium who had CAC >0 and per-vessel measurements of peak calcium density factor and mean calcium density. Area under the curve and continuous net reclassification improvement analyses were performed for CHD and ASCVD mortality to compare the predictive abilities of mean calcium density vs peak calcium density factor when calculating the Agatston CAC score.

RESULTS

Participants were on average 53.4 years of age, 24.4% were women, and the median CAC score was 68 Agatston units. The average values for mean calcium density and peak calcium density factor were 210 ± 50 HU and 3.1 ± 0.5, respectively. Individuals younger than 50 years of age and/or those with a total plaque area <100 mm2 had the largest differences between the peak and mean density measures. Among persons with CAC 1-99, the use of mean calcium density resulted in a larger improvement in ASCVD mortality net reclassification improvement (NRI) (NRI = 0.49; P < 0.001 vs. NRI = 0.18; P = 0.08) and CHD mortality discrimination (Δ area under the curve (AUC) = +0.169 vs +0.036; P < 0.001) compared with peak calcium density factor. Neither peak nor mean calcium density improved mortality prediction at CAC scores >100.

CONCLUSION

Mean and peak calcium density may differentially describe plaque composition early in the atherosclerotic process. Mean calcium density performs better than peak calcium density factor when combined with plaque area for ASCVD mortality prediction among persons with Agatston CAC 1-99.

Coronary artery calcium is associated with long-term mortality from lung cancer: Results from the Coronary Artery Calcium Consortium

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Coronary artery calcium (CAC) scores have been shown to be associated with CVD and cancer mortality. The use of CAC scores for overall and lung cancer mortality risk prediction for patients in the Coronary Artery Calcium Consortium was analyzed.

METHODS

We included 55,943 patients aged 44-84 years without known heart disease from the CAC Consortium. There were 1,088 cancer deaths, among which 231 were lung cancer, identified by death certificates with a mean follow-up of 12.2 ± 3.9 years. Fine-and-Gray competing-risk regression was used for overall and lung cancer-specific mortality, accounting for the competing risk of CVD death and after adjustment for CVD risk factors. Subdistribution hazard ratios (SHR) were reported.

RESULTS

The mean age of all patients was 57.1 ± 8.6 years, 34.9% were women, and 89.6% were white. Overall, CAC was strongly associated with cancer mortality. Lung cancer mortality increased with increasing CAC scores, with rates per 1000-person years of 0.2 (95% CI: 0.1-0.3) for CAC = 0 and 0.8 (95% CI: 0.6-1.0) for CAC ≥400. Compared with CAC = 0, hazards were increased for those with CAC ≥400 for lung cancer mortality [SHR: 1.7 (95% CI: 1.2-2.6)], which was driven by women [SHR: 2.3 (95% CI: 1.1-4.8)], but not significantly increased for men. Risks were higher in those with positive smoking history [SHR: 2.2 (95% CI: 1.2-4.2)], with associations driven by women [SHR: 4.0 (95% CI: 1.4-11.5)].

CONCLUSIONS

CAC scores were associated with increased risks for lung cancer mortality, with strongest associations for current and former smokers, especially in women. Used in conjunction with other clinical variables, our data pinpoint a potential synergistic use of CAC scanning beyond CVD risk assessment for identification of high-risk lung cancer screening candidates.

Modeling the Recommended Age for Initiating Coronary Artery Calcium Testing Among At-Risk Young Adults

BACKGROUND

There are currently no recommendations guiding when best to perform coronary artery calcium (CAC) scanning among young adults to identify those susceptible for developing premature atherosclerosis.

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to determine the ideal age at which a first CAC scan has the highest utility according to atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk factor profile.

METHODS

We included 22,346 CAC Consortium participants aged 30-50 years who underwent noncontrast computed tomography. Sex-specific equations were derived from multivariable logistic modeling to estimate the expected probability of CAC >0 according to age and the presence of ASCVD risk factors.

RESULTS

Participants were on average 43.5 years of age, 25% were women, and 34% had CAC >0, in whom the median CAC score was 20. Compared with individuals without risk factors, those with diabetes developed CAC 6.4 years earlier on average, whereas smoking, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and a family history of coronary heart disease were individually associated with developing CAC 3.3-4.3 years earlier. Using a testing yield of 25% for detecting CAC >0, the optimal age for a potential first scan would be at 36.8 years (95% CI: 35.5-38.4 years) in men and 50.3 years (95% CI: 48.7-52.1 years) in women with diabetes, and 42.3 years (95% CI: 41.0-43.9 years) in men and 57.6 years (95% CI: 56.0-59.5 years) in women without risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Our derived risk equations among health-seeking young adults enriched in ASCVD risk factors inform the expected prevalence of CAC >0 and can be used to determine an appropriate age to initiate clinical CAC testing to identify individuals most susceptible for early/premature atherosclerosis.

Coronary artery calcium is associated with increased risk for lung and colorectal cancer in men and women: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

AIMS

This study explored the association of coronary artery calcium (CAC) with incident cancer subtypes in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). CAC is an established predictor of cardiovascular disease (CVD), with emerging data also supporting independent predictive value for cancer. The association of CAC with risk for individual cancer subtypes is unknown.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We included 6271 MESA participants, aged 45-84 and without known CVD or self-reported history of cancer. There were 777 incident cancer cases during mean follow-up of 12.9 ± 3.1 years. Lung and colorectal cancer (186 cases) were grouped based on their strong overlap with CVD risk profile; prostate (men) and ovarian, uterine, and breast cancer (women) were considered as sex-specific cancers (in total 250 cases). Incidence rates and Fine and Gray competing risks models were used to assess relative risk of cancer-specific outcomes stratified by CAC groups or Log(CAC+1). The mean age was 61.7 ± 10.2 years, 52.7% were women, and 36.5% were White. Overall, all-cause cancer incidence increased with CAC scores, with rates per 1000 person-years of 13.1 [95% confidence interval (CI): 11.7-14.7] for CAC = 0 and 35.8 (95% CI: 30.2-42.4) for CAC ≥400. Compared with CAC = 0, hazards for those with CAC ≥400 were increased for lung and colorectal cancer in men [subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR): 2.2 (95% CI: 1.1-4.7)] and women [SHR: 2.2 (95% CI: 1.0-4.6)], but not significantly for sex-specific cancers across sexes.

CONCLUSION

CAC scores were associated with cancer risk in both sexes; however, this was stronger for lung and colorectal when compared with sex-specific cancers. Our data support potential synergistic use of CAC scores in the identification of both CVD and lung and colorectal cancer risk.

Thoracic Aortic Calcium for the Prediction of Stroke Mortality (from the Coronary Artery Calcium Consortium)

Thoracic aortic calcium(TAC) is an important marker of extracoronary atherosclerosis with established predictive value for all-cause mortality. We sought to explore the predictive value of TAC for stroke mortality, independent of the more established coronary artery calcium (CAC) score. The CAC Consortium is a retrospectively assembled database of 66,636 patients aged ≥18 years with no previous history of cardiovascular disease, baseline CAC scans for risk stratification, and follow-up for 12 ± 4 years. CAC scans capture the adjacent thoracic aorta, enabling assessment of TAC from the same images. TAC was available in 41,066 (62%), and was primarily analyzed as present or not present. To account for competing risks for nonstroke death, we utilized multivariable-adjusted Fine and Gray competing risk regression models adjusted for traditional cardiovascular risk factors and CAC score. The mean age of participants was 53.8 ± 10.3 years, with 34.4% female. There were 110 stroke deaths during follow-up. The unadjusted subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR) for stroke mortality in those who had TAC present compared with those who did not was 8.80 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.97, 12.98). After adjusting for traditional risk factors and CAC score, the SHR was 2.21 (95% CI:1.39,3.49). In sex-stratified analyses, the fully adjusted SHR for females was 3.42 (95% CI: 1.74, 6.73) while for males it was 1.55 (95% CI: 0.83, 2.90). TAC was associated with stroke mortality independent of CAC and traditional risk factors, more so in women. The presence of TAC appears to be an independent risk marker for stroke mortality.

Derivation of a Coronary Age Calculator Using Traditional Risk Factors and Coronary Artery Calcium: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

Background

The optimal method for communicating coronary heart disease (CHD) risk to individual patients is not yet clear. Recent research supports the concept of "coronary age" for more effective risk communication. We defined an individual's coronary age as the age at which an average healthy individual would have an equivalent estimated CHD risk as that calculated for the index individual, building on our previously validated MESA (Multi‐Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) 10‐year CHD Risk Score equations with and without coronary artery calcium (CAC).

Methods and Results

We derived a coronary age by (1) calculating the MESA 10‐year CHD risk; (2) mathematically setting this equal to an equation describing risk of an average healthy MESA participant, as a function of age; and (3) solving for age. The risk discrimination of the resultant coronary age was compared with that of chronological age, the MESA CHD Risk Score, and CAC alone. Approximately 95% of coronary age values ranged from 30 years less to 30 years higher than chronological age. Although the mean chronological age of individuals experiencing CHD events compared with those free of events was 67.4 versus 61.8 years, the difference in coronary age including CAC was larger (80.6 versus 62.8 years). Coronary age with CAC had identical predictive ability to that of MESA CHD Risk Score and outperformed chronological age and CAC alone.

Conclusions

The newly derived coronary age is a convenient transformation of MESA CHD Risk, retaining very good risk discrimination. This easy‐to‐communicate tool will be available for patients and clinicians, potentially facilitating risk communication in routine care.

Very High Coronary Artery Calcium (≥1000) and Association With Cardiovascular Disease Events, Non-Cardiovascular Disease Outcomes, and Mortality: Results From MESA

BACKGROUND

There are limited data on the unique cardiovascular disease (CVD), non-CVD, and mortality risks of primary prevention individuals with very high coronary artery calcium (CAC; ≥1000), especially compared with rates observed in secondary prevention populations.

METHODS

Our study population consisted of 6814 ethnically diverse individuals 45 to 84 years of age who were free of known CVD from MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis), a prospective, observational, community-based cohort. Mean follow-up time was 13.6±4.4 years. Hazard ratios of CAC ≥1000 were compared with both CAC 0 and CAC 400 to 999 for CVD, non-CVD, and mortality outcomes with the use of Cox proportional hazards regression adjusted for age, sex, and traditional risk factors. Using a sex-adjusted logarithmic model, we calculated event rates in MESA as a function of CAC and compared them with those observed in the placebo group of stable secondary prevention patients in the FOURIER clinical trial (Further Cardiovascular Outcomes Research With PCSK9 Inhibition in Subjects With Elevated Risk).

RESULTS

Compared with CAC 400 to 999, those with CAC ≥1000 (n=257) had a greater mean number of coronary vessels with CAC (3.4±0.5), greater total area of CAC (586.5±275.2 mm²), similar CAC density, and more extensive extracoronary calcification. After full adjustment, CAC ≥1000 demonstrated a 4.71- (3.63-6.11), 7.57- (5.50-10.42), 4.86-(3.32-7.11), and 1.94-fold (1.57-2.41) increased risk for all CVD events, all coronary heart disease events, hard coronary heart disease events, and all-cause mortality, respectively, compared with CAC 0 and a 1.65- (1.25-2.16), 1.66- (1.22-2.25), 1.51- (1.03-2.23), and 1.34-fold (1.05-1.71) increased risk compared with CAC 400 to 999. With increasing CAC, hazard ratios increased for all event types, with no apparent upper CAC threshold. CAC ≥1000 was associated with a 1.95- (1.57-2.41) and 1.43-fold (1.12-1.83) increased risk for a first non-CVD event compared with CAC 0 and CAC 400 to 999, respectively. CAC 1000 corresponded to an annualized 3-point major adverse cardiovascular event rate of 3.4 per 100 person-years, similar to that of the total FOURIER population (3.3) and higher than those of the lower-risk FOURIER subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

Individuals with very high CAC (≥1000) are a unique population at substantially higher risk for CVD events, non-CVD outcomes, and mortality than those with lower CAC, with 3-point major adverse cardiovascular event rates similar to those of a stable treated secondary prevention population. Future guidelines should consider a less distinct stratification algorithm between primary and secondary prevention patients in guiding aggressive preventive pharmacotherapy.

Relation of Absence of Coronary Artery Calcium to Cardiovascular Disease Mortality Risk Among Individuals Meeting Criteria for Statin Therapy According to the 2018/2019 ACC/AHA Guidelines

The 2013 American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) guidelines resulted in broad recommendations for preventive statin therapy allocation in patients without known cardiovascular disease (CVD). Subsequent studies demonstrated significant heterogeneity of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk across the primary prevention population. In 2018/2019, the guidelines were revised to optimize risk assessment and cholesterol management. We sought to evaluate the heterogeneity of risk in statin-recommended patients, using coronary artery calcium (CAC) according to 2018/2019 ACC/AHA guidelines in a primary prevention cohort. We evaluated 5,800 statin-naive patients aged 40 to 75 years without known coronary heart disease from the Cedars-Sinai Medical Center study cohort. All participants underwent clinical CAC scoring for risk stratification and were followed for all-cause and CVD-specific mortality. A total of 181 deaths occurred including 54 CVD deaths over a follow-up of 9.5 years. Overall, 1,939 participants would have been recommended statin therapy, 32% of whom had no detectable CAC. CAC = 0 participants had the lowest all-cause and CVD mortality rates in both statin-recommended and nonrecommended groups (0.2 and 0.4 CVD deaths per 1,000 person-years, respectively). Absence of CAC in statin-naive patients portends an approximately 12-fold lower CVD mortality (0.2% vs 2.4%) in those recommended for statin therapy compared with any CAC present. In conclusion, in a cohort of patients meeting the 2018/2019 ACC/AHA guidelines for statin therapy for primary prevention, there was a marked heterogeneity of CAC scores, with about one-third of the statin recommended population having no detectable CAC (CAC = 0) with a significantly lower CVD mortality compared with CAC>0.

Warranty Period of a Calcium Score of Zero: Comprehensive Analysis From MESA

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to quantify and model conversion of a normal coronary artery calcium (CAC) scan to an abnormal CAC scan.

BACKGROUND

Although the absence of CAC is associated with excellent prognosis, progression to CAC >0 confers increased risk. The time interval for repeated scanning remains poorly defined.

METHODS

This study included 3,116 participants from the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) with baseline CAC = 0 and follow-up scans over 10 years after baseline. Prevalence of incident CAC, defined by thresholds of CAC >0, CAC >10, or CAC >100, was calculated and time to progression was derived from a Weibull parametric survival model. Warranty periods were modeled as a function of sex, race/ethnicity, cardiovascular risk, and desired yield of repeated CAC testing. Further analysis was performed of the proportion of coronary events occurring in participants with baseline CAC = 0 that preceded and followed repeated CAC testing at different time intervals.

RESULTS

Mean participants' age was 58 ± 9 years, with 63% women, and mean 10-year cardiovascular risk of 14%. Prevalence of CAC >0, CAC >10, and CAC >100 was 53%, 36%, and 8%, respectively, at 10 years. Using a 25% testing yield (number needed to scan [NNS] = 4), the estimated warranty period of CAC >0 varied from 3 to 7 years depending on sex and race/ethnicity. Approximately 15% of participants progressed to CAC >10 in 5 to 8 years, whereas 10-year progression to CAC >100 was rare. Presence of diabetes was associated with significantly shorter warranty period, whereas family history and smoking had small effects. A total of 19% of all 10-year coronary events occurred in CAC = 0 prior to performance of a subsequent scan at 3 to 5 years, whereas detection of new CAC >0 preceded 55% of future events and identified individuals at 3-fold higher risk of coronary events.

CONCLUSIONS

In a large population of individuals with baseline CAC = 0, study data provide a robust estimation of the CAC = 0 warranty period, considering progression to CAC >0, CAC >10, and CAC >100 and its impact on missed versus detectable 10-year coronary heart disease events. Beyond age, sex, race/ethnicity, diabetes also has a significant impact on the warranty period. The study suggests that evidence-based guidance would be to consider rescanning in 3 to 7 years depending on individual demographics and risk profile.

Prognostic value of coronary artery calcium score, area, and density among individuals on statin therapy vs. non-users: The coronary artery calcium consortium

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Statins do not decrease coronary artery calcium (CAC) and may increase existing calcification or its density. Therefore, we examined the prognostic significance of CAC among statin users at the time of CAC scanning.

METHODS

We included 28,025 patients (6151 statin-users) aged 40-75 years from the CAC Consortium. Cox regression models were used to assess the association of CAC with coronary heart disease (CHD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. Models were adjusted for traditional CVD risk factors. Additionally, we examined the predictive performance of CAC components including CAC area, volume, and density using an age- and sex-adjusted Cox regression model.

RESULTS

Participants (mean age 53.9 ± 10.3 years, 65.0% male) were followed for median 11.2 years. There were 395 CVD and 182 CHD deaths. One unit increase in log CAC score was associated with increased risk of CVD mortality (hazard ratio (HR), 1.2; 95% CI = 1.1-1.3) and CHD mortality (HR, 1.2; 95% CI = 1.1-1.4)) among statin users. There was a small but significant negative interaction between CAC score and statin use for the prediction of CHD (p-value = 0.036) and CVD mortality (p-value = 0.025). The volume score and CAC area were similarly associated with outcomes in statin users and non-users. Density was associated with CVD and CHD mortality in statin naïve patients, but with neither in statin users.

CONCLUSION

CAC scoring retains robust risk prediction in statin users, and the changing relationship of CAC density with outcomes may explain the slightly weaker relationship of CAC with outcomes in statin users.

Association of Body Mass Index With Coronary Artery Calcium and Subsequent Cardiovascular Mortality: The Coronary Artery Calcium Consortium

BACKGROUND

Obesity is associated with higher risk for coronary artery calcium (CAC), but the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and mortality is complex and frequently paradoxical.

METHODS

We analyzed BMI, CAC, and subsequent mortality using data from the CAC Consortium, a multi-centered cohort of individuals free of established cardiovascular disease (CVD) who underwent CAC testing. Mortality was assessed through linkage to the Social Security Death Index and cause of death from the National Death Index. Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine odds ratios for the association of clinically relevant BMI categories and prevalent CAC. Cox proportional hazards regression modeling was used to determine hazard ratios for coronary heart disease, CVD, and all-cause mortality according to categories of BMI and CAC.

RESULTS

Our sample included 36 509 individuals, mean age 54.1 (10.3) years, 34.4% female, median BMI 26.6 (interquartile range, 24.1-30.1), 46.6% had zero CAC, and 10.5% had CAC ≥400. Compared with individuals with normal BMI, the multivariable adjusted odds of CAC >0 were increased in those overweight (odds ratio, 1.13 [95% CI, 1.1-1.2]) and obese (odds ratio, 1.5 [95% CI, 1.4-1.6]). Over a median follow-up of 11.4 years, there were 1550 deaths (4.3%). Compared with normal BMI, obese individuals had a higher risk of coronary heart disease, CVD, and all-cause mortality while overweight individuals, despite a higher odds of CAC, showed no significant increase in mortality. In a sex-stratified analysis, the increase in coronary heart disease, CVD, and all-cause mortality in obese individuals appeared largely limited to men, and there was a lower risk of all-cause mortality in overweight women (hazard ratio, 0.79 [95% CI, 0.63-0.98]).

CONCLUSIONS

In a large sample undergoing CAC scoring, obesity was associated with a higher risk of CAC and subsequent coronary heart disease, CVD, and all-cause mortality. However, overweight individuals did not have a higher risk of mortality despite a higher risk for CAC.

Predictors of coronary artery calcium among 20-30-year-olds: The Coronary Artery Calcium Consortium

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

We sought to understand the risk factor correlates of very early coronary artery calcium (CAC), and the potential investigational value of CAC phenotyping in adults aged 20-30 years.

METHODS

We studied all participants aged 20-30 years at baseline (N = 373) in the Coronary Artery Calcium Consortium, a large multi-center cohort study of patients aged 18 years or older without known atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) at baseline, referred for CAC scoring for clinical risk stratification. We described the prevalence of CAC in men and women, the frequency of risk factors by the presence of CAC (CAC = 0 vs CAC >0), and assessed the association between traditional non-demographic CVD risk factors (hypertension, hyperlipidemia, smoking, family history of CHD, and diabetes) and prevalent CAC, using age- and sex-adjusted logistic regression models.

RESULTS

The mean age of the study participants was 27.5 ± 2.4 years; 324 (86.9%) had CAC = 0, and 49 (13.1%) had CAC >0. Among the 49 participants with CAC, 38 (77.6%) were men, and median CAC score was low at 4.6. In age- and sex-adjusted models, there was a graded increase in the odds of CAC >0 with increasing traditional cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor burden (p = 0.001 for linear trend). Participants with ≥3 traditional risk factors had a statistically significant higher odds of having prevalent CAC (OR 5.57, 95% CI; 1.82-17.03) compared to participants with no risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study demonstrates the non-negligible prevalence of CAC among very high-risk young US adults, reinforcing the critical importance of traditional risk factors in the earliest development of detectable subclinical ASCVD.

Interplay of Coronary Artery Calcium and Risk Factors for Predicting CVD/CHD Mortality: The CAC Consortium

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to evaluate the association and burden of coronary artery calcium (CAC) with long-term, cause-specific mortality across the spectrum of baseline risk.

BACKGROUND

Although CAC is a known predictor of short-term, all-cause mortality, data on long-term and cause-specific mortality are inadequate.

METHODS

The CAC Consortium cohort is a multicenter cohort of 66,636 participants without coronary heart disease (CHD) who underwent CAC testing. The following risk factors (RFs) were considered: 1) current cigarette smoking; 2) dyslipidemia; 3) diabetes mellitus; 4) hypertension; and 5) family history of CHD.

RESULTS

During the 12.5-years median follow-up, 3,158 (4.7%) deaths occurred; 32% were cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths. Participants with CAC scores ≥400 had a significantly increased risk for CHD and CVD mortality (hazard ratio [HR]: 5.44; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.88 to 7.62; and HR: 4.15; 95% CI: 3.29 to 5.22, respectively) compared with CAC of 0. Participants with ≥3 RFs had a smaller increased risk for CHD and CVD mortality (HR: 2.09; 95% CI: 1.52 to 2.85; and HR: 1.84; 95% CI: 1.46 to 2.31, respectively) compared with those without RFs. Across RF strata, CAC added prognostic information. For example, participants without RFs but with CAC ≥400 had significantly higher all-cause, non-CVD, CVD, and CHD mortality rates compared with participants with ≥3 RFs and CAC of 0.

CONCLUSIONS

Across the spectrum of RF burden, a higher CAC score was strongly associated with long-term, all-cause mortality and a greater proportion of deaths due to CVD and CHD. Absence of CAC identified people with a low risk over 12 years of follow-up, with most deaths being non-CVD in nature, regardless of RF burden.

Race/Ethnicity and the Prognostic Implications of Coronary Artery Calcium for All-Cause and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality: The Coronary Artery Calcium Consortium

Background

Coronary artery calcium (CAC) predicts cardiovascular disease (CVD) events; however, less is known about how its prognostic implications vary by race/ethnicity.

Methods and Results

A total of 38 277 whites, 1621 Asians, 977 blacks, and 1349 Hispanics from the CAC Consortium (mean age 55 years, 35% women) were followed over a median of 11.7 years. Modeling CAC in continuous and categorical (CAC=0; CAC 1–99; CAC 100–399; CAC ≥400) forms, we assessed its predictive value for all‐cause and CVD mortality by race/ethnicity using Cox proportional hazards and Fine and Gray competing‐risk regression, respectively. We also assessed the impact of race/ethnicity on risk within individual CAC strata, using whites as the reference. Models were adjusted for traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Increased CAC was associated with higher total and CVD mortality risk in all race/ethnicity groups, including Asians. However, the risk gradient with increasing CAC was more pronounced in blacks and Hispanics. In Fine and Gray subdistribution hazards models adjusted for traditional cardiovascular risk factors and CAC (continuous), blacks (subdistribution hazard ratio 3.4, 95% confidence interval, 2.5–4.8) and Hispanics (subdistribution hazard ratio 2.3, 95% confidence interval, 1.6–3.2) showed greater risk of CVD mortality when compared with whites, while Asians had risk similar to whites. These race/ethnic differences persisted when CAC=0.

Conclusions

CAC predicts all‐cause and CVD mortality in all studied race/ethnicity groups, including Asians and Hispanics, who may be poorly represented by the Pooled Cohort Equations. Blacks and Hispanics may have greater mortality risk compared with whites and Asians after adjusting for atherosclerosis burden, with potential implications for US race/ethnic healthcare disparities research.

The association between e-cigarette use and asthma among never combustible cigarette smokers: behavioral risk factor surveillance system (BRFSS) 2016 & 2017

BACKGROUND

E-cigarette use prevalence has grown rapidly in the US. Despite the popularity of these products, few acute exposure toxicity studies exist, and studies on long-term pulmonary health effects are limited. E-cigarette users who are never combustible cigarette smokers (sole users) constitute a unique group of young adults that may be at increased risk of bronchial hyperreactivity and development of asthma. Given the public health concern about the potential pulmonary health effects of sole e-cigarette use, we aimed to examine the association between e-cigarette use and asthma among never combustible cigarette smokers.

METHODS

We pooled 2016 and 2017 data of the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), a large, cross-sectional telephone survey of adults aged 18 years and older in the U.S. We included 402,822 participants without any history of combustible cigarette smoking (defined as lifetime smoking < 100 cigarettes) and with complete self-reported information on key variables. Current e-cigarette use, further classified as daily or occasional use, was the primary exposure. The main outcome, asthma, was defined as self-reported history of asthma. We assess the relationship of sole e-cigarette use with asthma using multivariable logistic regression adjusting for age, sex, race, income, level of education and body mass index.

RESULTS

Of 402,822 never combustible cigarette smokers, there were 3103 (0.8%) current e-cigarette users and 34,074 (8.5%) with asthma. The median age group of current e-cigarette users was 18-24 years. Current e-cigarette use was associated with 39% higher odds of self-reported asthma compared to never e-cigarette users (Odds Ratio [OR], 1.39; 95% confidence interval: 1.15, 1.68). There was a graded increased odds of having asthma with increase of e-cigarette use intensity. The odds ratio of self-reported asthma increased from 1.31 (95% confidence interval: 1.05, 1.62) in occasional users to 1.73 (95% confidence interval: 1.21, 2.48) in daily e-cigarette users, compared to never e-cigarette users.

CONCLUSION

Our findings from a large, nationally representative survey suggest increased odds of asthma among never combustible smoking e-cigarette users. This may have potential public health implications, providing a strong rationale to support future longitudinal studies of pulmonary health in young e-cigarette-using adults.

Association of Coronary Artery Calcium With Long-term, Cause-Specific Mortality Among Young Adults

IMPORTANCE

The level of coronary artery calcium (CAC) can effectively stratify cardiovascular risk in middle-aged and older adults, but its utility for young adults is unclear.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the prevalence of CAC in adults aged 30 to 49 years and the subsequent association of CAC with coronary heart disease (CHD), cardiovascular disease (CVD), and all-cause mortality.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A multicenter retrospective cohort study was conducted among 22 346 individuals from the CAC Consortium who underwent CAC testing (baseline examination, 1991-2010, with follow-up through June 30, 2014; CAC quantified using nonconrast, cardiac-gated computed tomography scans) for clinical indications and were followed up for cause-specific mortality. Participants were free of clinical CVD at baseline. Statistical analysis was performed from June 1, 2017, to May 31, 2018.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The prevalence of CAC and the subsequent rates of CHD, CVD, and all-cause mortality. Competing risks regression modeling was used to calculate multivariable-adjusted subdistribution hazard ratios for CHD and CVD mortality.

RESULTS

The sample of 22 346 participants (25.0% women and 75.0% men; mean [SD] age, 43.5 [4.5] years) had a high prevalence of hyperlipidemia (49.6%) and family history of CHD (49.3%) but a low prevalence of current smoking (11.0%) and diabetes (3.9%). The prevalence of any CAC was 34.4%, with 7.2% having a CAC score of more than 100. During follow-up (mean [SD], 12.7 [4.0] years), there were 40 deaths related to CHD, 84 deaths related to CVD, and 298 total deaths. A total of 27 deaths related to CHD (67.5%) occurred among individuals with CAC at baseline. The CHD mortality rate per 1000 person-years was 10-fold higher among those with a CAC score of more than 100 (0.69; 95% CI, 0.41-1.16) compared with those with a CAC score of 0 (0.07; 95% CI, 0.04-0.12). After multivariable adjustment, those with a CAC score of more than 100 had a significantly increased risk of CHD (subdistribution hazard ratio, 5.6; 95% CI, 2.5-12.7), CVD (subdistribution hazard ratio, 3.3; 95% CI, 1.8-6.2), and all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 2.6; 95% CI, 1.9-3.6) compared with those with a CAC score of 0.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In a large sample of young adults undergoing CAC testing for clinical indications, 34.4% had CAC, and those with elevated CAC scores had significantly higher rates of CHD and CVD mortality. Coronary artery calcium may have potential utility for clinical decision-making among select young adults at elevated risk of cardiovascular disease.

Validation of the Coronary Artery Calcium Data and Reporting System (CAC-DRS): Dual importance of CAC score and CAC distribution from the Coronary Artery Calcium (CAC) consortium

BACKGROUND

The Coronary Artery Calcium Data and Reporting System (CAC-DRS), which takes into account the Agatston score category (A) and the number of calcified vessels (N) has not yet been validated in terms of its prognostic significance.

METHODS

We included 54,678 patients from the CAC Consortium, a large retrospective clinical cohort of asymptomatic individuals free of baseline cardiovascular disease (CVD). CAC-DRS groups were derived from routine, cardiac-gated CAC scans. Cox proportional hazards regression models, adjusted for traditional CVD risk factors, were used to assess the association between CAC-DRS groups and CHD, CVD, and all-cause mortality. CAC-DRS was then compared to CAC score groups and regional CAC distribution using area under the curve (AUC) analysis.

RESULTS

The study population had a mean age of 54.2 ± 10.7, 34.4% female, and mean ASCVD score 7.3% ± 9.0. Over a mean follow-up of 12 ± 4 years, a total of 2,469 deaths (including 398 CHD deaths and 762 CVD deaths) were recorded. There was a graded risk for CHD, CVD and all-cause mortality with increasing CAC-DRS groups ranging from an all-cause mortality rate of 1.2 per 1,000 person-years for A0 to 15.4 per 1,000 person-years for A3/N4. In multivariable-adjusted models, those with CAC-DRS A3/N4 had significantly higher risk for CHD mortality (HR 5.9 (95% CI 3.6-9.9), CVD mortality (HR4.0 (95% CI 2.8-5.7), and all-cause mortality a (HR 2.5 (95% CI 2.1-3.0) compared to CAC-DRS A0. CAC-DRS had higher AUC than CAC score groups (0.762 vs 0.754, P < 0.001) and CAC distribution (0.762 vs 0.748, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The CAC-DRS system, combining the Agatston score and the number of vessels with CAC provides better stratification of risk for CHD, CVD, and all-cause death than the Agatston score alone. These prognostic data strongly support new SCCT guidelines recommending the use CAC-DRS scoring.

Coronary artery calcium scoring in low risk patients with family history of coronary heart disease: Validation of the SCCT guideline approach in the coronary artery calcium consortium

BACKGROUND

The Society of Cardiovascular Computed Tomography (SCCT) recommends consideration of coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring among individuals with a family history (FH) of coronary heart disease (CHD) and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk <5%. No dedicated study has examined the prognostic significance of CAC scoring among this population.

METHODS

The CAC Consortium is a multi-center observational cohort study from four clinical centers linked to long-term follow-up for cause-specific mortality. All CAC scans were physician referred and performed in patients without a history of CHD. Our analysis includes 14,169 patients with ASCVD scores <5% and self-reported FH of CHD.

RESULTS

This cohort had a mean age of 48.1 (SD 7.4), was 91.3% white, 47.4% female, had an average ASCVD score of 2.3% (SD 1.3), and 59.4% had a CAC = 0. The event rate for all-cause mortality was 1.2 per 1000 person-years, 0.3 per 1000 person-years for CVD-specific mortality, and 0.2 per 1000 person-years for CHD-specific mortality. In multivariable Cox proportional hazard models, those with CAC>100 had a 2.2 (95% CI 1.5-3.3) higher risk of all-cause mortality, 4.3 (95% CI 1.9-9.5) times higher risk of CVD-specific mortality, and a 10.4 (95% CI 3.2-33.7) times higher risk of CHD-specific mortality compared to individuals with CAC = 0. The NNS to detect CAC >100 in this sample was 9.

CONCLUSION

In otherwise low risk patients with FH of CHD, CAC>100 were associated with increased risk of all-cause and CHD mortality with event rates in a range that may benefit with preventive pharmacotherapy. These data strongly support new SCCT recommendations regarding testing of patients with a family history of CHD.

Association Between Self-rated Health, Coronary Artery Calcium Scores, and Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

IMPORTANCE

The interplay of self-rated health (SRH), coronary artery calcium (CAC) scores, and cardiovascular risk is poorly described.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the degree of correlation between SRH and CAC, to determine whether these measures are complementary for risk prediction, and to assess the incremental value of the addition of SRH to established risk tools.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) is a large population-based prospective cohort study of adults aged 45 to 84 years who were recruited from 6 US communities. A total of 6764 participants without baseline cardiovascular disease (CVD) were included in the analysis. Data were collected from July 2000 through August 2002. Follow-up was completed by December 2013, and data were analyzed from October 2018 to December 2018.

EXPOSURES

The EVGGFP (excellent, very good, good, fair, and poor) self-assessment of overall health (assessed before the baseline study examination) and CAC score. The EVGGFP rating was categorized as poor/fair, good, very good, or excellent.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Hard coronary heart disease (CHD) events, hard CVD events, and all-cause mortality during a median follow-up of 13.2 years (interquartile range, 12.7-13.7 years).

RESULTS

Among the study population of 6764 participants, the mean (SD) age was 62.1 (10.2) years, and 52.9% were women. The EVGGFP rating was strongly associated with age, sex, race/ethnicity, educational and income levels, healthy diet and physical activity, and cardiovascular risk factors. Despite encapsulating many risk variables, no correlation (r = -0.007; P = .57) or association between EVGGFP and the presence (χ2 = 0.84; P = .84) or severity (χ2 = 4.64; P = .86) of CAC was found. During follow-up, 1161 deaths, 637 hard CVD events, and 405 hard CHD events were recorded. In models adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, and CAC, participants who reported excellent health had a 45% lower risk of CVD (hazard ratio [HR], 0.55; 95% CI, 0.39-0.77) and a 42% lower risk of CHD (HR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.37-0.90) compared with those who reported poor/fair health. Participants in the excellent SRH category who had any CAC had markedly elevated risk of hard CHD (HR, 6.19; 95% CI, 2.1-18.3) and CVD (HR, 6.50; 95% CI, 2.7-15.6) events compared with those with a CAC score of 0. The addition of the EVGGFP rating to CAC improved the area under the curve (C statistic) for CHD events (0.725 vs 0.734; P = .007), CVD events (0.693 vs 0.706; P < .001), and all-cause mortality (0.685 vs 0.707; P < .001). However, the addition of the EVGGFP rating to the combination of CAC and atherosclerotic CVD risk score did not significantly improve C statistics for CHD events (0.751 vs 0.753; P = .39), CVD events (0.739 vs 0.741; P = .18), or all-cause mortality (0.779 vs 0.781; P = .13).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Although SRH and CAC integrate many risk variables, this study suggests that they are poorly correlated and have complementary predictive utility. A perception of excellent health does not obviate the need for definitive assessment of CVD risk, whereas fair/poor perceived health may serve as a risk enhancer, arguing for advanced risk assessment in selected clinical scenarios.

Sex differences in calcified plaque and long-term cardiovascular mortality: observations from the CAC Consortium

Aims

Pathologic evidence supports unique sex-specific mechanisms as precursors for acute cardiovascular (CV) events. Current evidence on long-term CV risk among women when compared with men based on measures of coronary artery calcium (CAC) remains incomplete.

Methods and results

A total of 63 215 asymptomatic women and men were enrolled in the multicentre, CAC Consortium with median follow-up of 12.6 years. Pooled cohort equation (PCE) risk scores and risk factor data were collected with the Agatston score and other CAC measures (number of lesions and vessels, lesion size, volume, and plaque density). Cox proportional hazard models were employed to estimate CV mortality (n = 919). Sex interactions were calculated. Women and men had average PCE risk scores of 5.8% and 9.1% (P < 0.001). Within CAC subgroups, women had fewer calcified lesions (P < 0.0001) and vessels (P = 0.017), greater lesion size (P < 0.0001), and higher plaque density (P = 0.013) when compared with men. For women and men without CAC, long-term CV mortality was similar (P = 0.67), whereas detectable CAC was associated with 1.3-higher hazard for CV death among women when compared with men (P < 0001). Cardiovascular mortality was higher among women with more extensive, numerous, or larger CAC lesions. The relative hazard for cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality for women and men was 8.2 vs. 5.1 for multivessel CAC, 8.6 vs. 5.9 for ≥5 CAC lesions, and 8.5 vs. 4.4 for a lesion size ≥15 mm3, respectively. Additional explorations revealed that women with larger sized and more numerous CAC lesions had 2.2-fold higher CVD mortality (P < 0.0001) as compared to men. Moreover, CAC density was not predictive of CV mortality in women (P = 0.51) but was for men (P < 0.001), when controlling for CAC volume and cardiac risk factors.

Conclusion

Our overall findings support that measures beyond the Agatston score provide important clues to sex differences in atherosclerotic plaque and may further refine risk detection and focus preventive strategies of care.

Statin Eligibility, Coronary Artery Calcium, and Subsequent Cardiovascular Events According to the 2016 United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) Statin Guidelines: MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis)

Background

The potential impact of the 2016 United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) guidelines on statins for primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) warrants further analysis.

Methods and Results

We studied participants from MESA (Multi‐Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) aged 40 to 75 years and not on statins. We compared statin eligibility at baseline (2000–2002) and over follow‐up between USPSTF and the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) guidelines. Coronary artery calcium (CAC) was measured at baseline. Absolute ASCVD event rates were calculated according to eligibility categories for each guideline. Among 4962 MESA participants (aged 59.3±8.8 years, 47.2% female), compared with ACC/AHA guidelines, baseline statin eligibility by USPSTF was significantly lower (34.4% versus 49.1%) and increased less over time (39.1% versus 59.1%) at examination 5 [years 2010–2012]). Compared with ACC/AHA, participants eligible by USPSTF were less likely to have zero CAC at baseline (36.6% versus 41.2%) and had higher rates of hard ASCVD events per 1000 person‐years (11.6 [95% confidence interval, 10.2–13.3] versus 10.0 [8.9–11.3]). The hard ASCVD event rate in those eligible by ACC/AHA but not USPSTF was 6.5 (4.9–8.5) events per 1000 person‐years, with the rate varying significantly according to baseline CAC (4.2 [2.7–6.7] events in those with CAC=0, 12.8 [8.3–19.9] events in those with CAC >100).

Conclusions

In MESA, compared with ACC/AHA, the USPSTF statin guidelines resulted in a 15% absolute decrease in eligibility. Participants with discordant eligibility had ASCVD rates that varied significantly according to baseline CAC, suggesting CAC could aid clinical decision making for statins in these individuals.

Exercise Capacity and the Obesity Paradox in Heart Failure: The FIT (Henry Ford Exercise Testing) Project

OBJECTIVES

To assess the influence of exercise capacity and body mass index (BMI) on 10-year mortality in patients with heart failure (HF) and to synthesize these results with those of previous studies.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This large biracial sample included 774 men and women (mean age, 60±13 years; 372 [48%] black) with a baseline diagnosis of HF from the Henry Ford Exercise Testing (FIT) Project. All patients completed a symptom-limited maximal treadmill stress test from January 1, 1991, through May 31, 2009. Patients were grouped by World Health Organization BMI categories for Kaplan-Meier survival analyses and stratified by exercise capacity (<4 and ≥4 metabolic equivalents [METs] of task). Associations of BMI and exercise capacity with all-cause mortality were assessed using multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up of 10.1±4.6 years, 380 patients (49%) died. Kaplan-Meier survival plots revealed a significant positive association between BMI category and survival for exercise capacity less than 4 METs (log-rank, P=.05), but not greater than or equal to 4 METs (P=.76). In the multivariable-adjusted models, exercise capacity (per 1 MET) was inversely associated, but BMI was not associated, with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.85-0.94; P<.001 and hazard ratio, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.97-1.01; P=.16, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Maximal exercise capacity modified the relationship between BMI and long-term survival in patients with HF, upholding the presence of an exercise capacity-obesity paradox dichotomy as observed over the short-term in previous studies.

Prognostic value of exercise capacity among men undergoing pharmacologic treatment for erectile dysfunction: The FIT Project

BACKGROUND

Vascular erectile dysfunction (ED) has been identified as a potentially useful risk factor for predicting future cardiovascular events, particularly in younger men. Because these men typically score more favorably on traditional cardiovascular disease risk assessment tools, there exists a gap in knowledge for how to most appropriately identify those men who would benefit from more aggressive treatments. To date, no studies have examined the impact of fitness on cardiovascular outcomes in men with ED. This study sought to examine the prognostic impact of maximal exercise capacity on cardiovascular-related outcomes in men ages 40 to 60 years being treated for ED.

HYPOTHESIS

We hypothesized that there would be an independent association between higher baseline fitness level and lower cardiovascular events.

METHODS

We analyzed 1152 men with pharmacy claims file-confirmed active pharmacologic treatment for ED from the Henry Ford Exercise Testing (FIT) Project (1991-2009). All patients were free of coronary heart disease and heart failure, and underwent clinician-referred exercise stress testing, with fitness measured in metabolic equivalents of task (METs). Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for traditional cardiovascular risk factors were used to study the association between fitness and all-cause mortality, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) (defined as myocardial infarction or revascularization), and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus.

RESULTS

The mean age of the population was 53 years, with 39% African Americans. In multivariable analysis, each 1 MET of fitness was associated with a 16% lower risk of death (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.84, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.76-0.94, P = 0.002), and a nonsignificant reduction in MACE (HR: 0.89, 95% CI: 0.79-1.003, P = 0.048), and incident diabetes (HR: 0.92, 95% CI: 0.85-1.01, P = 0.129).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher baseline fitness is associated with improved cardiovascular prognosis in a population of middle-aged men treated for ED.

Coronary Artery Calcium to Guide a Personalized Risk-Based Approach to Initiation and Intensification of Antihypertensive Therapy

BACKGROUND

The use of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk to personalize systolic blood pressure (SBP) treatment goals is a topic of increasing interest. Therefore, we studied whether coronary artery calcium (CAC) can further guide the allocation of anti-hypertensive treatment intensity.

METHODS

We included 3733 participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) with SBP between 120 and 179 mm Hg. Within subgroups categorized by both SBP (120-139 mm Hg, 140-159 mm Hg, and 160-179 mm Hg) and estimated 10-year ASCVD risk (using the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Assocation pooled-cohort equations), we compared multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios for the composite outcome of incident ASCVD or heart failure after further stratifying by CAC (0, 1-100, or >100). We estimated 10-year number-needed-to-treat for an intensive SBP goal of 120 mm Hg by applying the treatment benefit recorded in meta-analyses to event rates within CAC strata.

RESULTS

The mean age was 65 years, and 642 composite events took place over a median of 10.2 years. In persons with SBP <160 mm Hg, CAC stratified risk for events. For example, among those with an ASCVD risk of <15% and who had an SBP of either 120 to 139 mm Hg or 140 to 159 mm Hg, respectively, we found increasing hazard ratios for events with CAC 1 to 100 (1.7 [95% confidence interval, 1.0-2.6] or 2.0 [1.1-3.8]) and CAC >100 (3.0 [1.8-5.0] or 5.7 [2.9-11.0]), all relative to CAC=0. There appeared to be no statistical association between CAC and events when SBP was 160 to 179 mm Hg, irrespective of ASCVD risk level. Estimated 10-year number-needed-to-treat for a SBP goal of 120mmHg varied substantially according to CAC levels when predicted ASCVD risk <15% and SBP <160mmHg (eg, 10-year number-needed-to-treat of 99 for CAC=0 and 24 for CAC>100, when SBP 120-139mm Hg). However, few participants with ASCVD risk <5% had elevated CAC. Furthermore, 10-year number-needed-to-treat estimates were consistently low and varied less among CAC strata when SBP was 160 to 179 mm Hg or when ASCVD risk was ≥15% at any SBP level.

CONCLUSIONS

Combined CAC imaging and assessment of global ASCVD risk has the potential to guide personalized SBP goals (eg, choosing a traditional goal of 140 or a more intensive goal of 120 mm Hg), particularly among adults with an estimated ASCVD risk of 5% to 15% and prehypertension or mild hypertension.

Thoracic aortic calcium, cardiovascular disease events, and all-cause mortality in asymptomatic individuals with zero coronary calcium: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

TAC is associated with incident CVD and all-cause mortality. Nevertheless, the independent 10-year prognostic value of TAC in individuals with CAC = 0 beyond traditional risk factors is not well established.

METHODS

3415 MESA participants with baseline CAC = 0 were followed for CHD, CVD events and all-cause mortality. TAC was measured in the ascending and descending aorta in all participants and quantified using Agatston's score. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to study the associations between TAC and incident CHD, CVD events and all-cause mortality. Likelihood ratio tests were used to compare prediction models including traditional risk factors plus TAC versus risk factors alone.

RESULTS

406 participants (11.9%) had TAC>0 at baseline. Over a median follow-up of 11.3 years, unadjusted event rates per 1000 person-years were higher in TAC>0 than in TAC = 0 participants: CHD 2.18 vs. 2.03; CVD 6.85 vs. 3.42; all-cause mortality 12.84 vs. 4.96. However, in multivariable Cox regression analyses adjusting for CVD risk factors, neither TAC>0, TAC>100 nor log(TAC+1) were independently associated with any of the study outcomes, nor improved their prediction compared to traditional risk factors alone (p value of likelihood ratio tests >0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

In a multi-ethnic, modern US population of asymptomatic individuals with CAC = 0 at baseline, the prevalence of TAC>0 was low, and TAC did not improve 10-year estimation of prognosis beyond traditional risk factors. In the presence of CAC = 0, measurement of TAC is unlikely to provide sufficient additional prognostic information to further improve risk assessment.

Rationale and design of the coronary artery calcium consortium: A multicenter cohort study

BACKGROUND

Although coronary artery calcium (CAC) has been investigated for over two decades, there is very limited data on the association of CAC with cause of death. The CAC Consortium is a large ongoing multi-center observational cohort of individuals who underwent non-contrast cardiac-gated CAC testing and systematic, prospective, long-term follow-up for mortality with ascertainment of cause of death.

METHODS

Four participating institutions from three states within the US (California, Minnesota, and Ohio) have contributed individual-level patient data to the CAC Consortium (spanning years 1991-2010). All CAC scans were clinically indicated and physician-referred in patients without a known history of coronary heart disease. Using strict inclusion and exclusion criteria to minimize missing data and to eliminate non-dedicated CAC scans (i.e. concomitant CT angiography), a sharply defined and well-characterized cohort of 66,636 patients was assembled. Mortality status was ascertained using the Social Security Administration Death Master File and a validated algorithm. In addition, death certificates were obtained from the National Death Index and categorized using ICD (International Classification of Diseases) codes into common causes of death.

RESULTS

Mean patient age was 54 ± 11 years and the majority were male (67%). Prevalence of CVD risk factors was similar across sites and 55% had a <5% estimated 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk. Approximately 45% had a Calcium score of 0 and 11% had an Agatston Score ≥400. Over a mean follow-up of 12 ± 4 years, there were 3158 deaths (4.15 per 1000 person-years). The majority of deaths were due to cancer (37%) and CVD (32%). Most CVD deaths were due to CHD (54%) followed by stroke (17%). In general, CAC score distributions were similar across sites, and there were similar cause of death patterns.

CONCLUSIONS

The CAC Consortium is large and highly generalizable data set that is uniquely positioned to expand the understanding of CAC as a predictor of mortality risk across the spectrum of disease states, allowing innovative modeling of the competing risks of cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular death.

Chronotropic Incompetence and Risk of Atrial Fibrillation: The Henry Ford ExercIse Testing (FIT) Project

OBJECTIVES

To examine the association between chronotropic incompetence and incident atrial fibrillation (AF).

BACKGROUND

Patients with inadequate heart rate response during exercise may have abnormalities in sinus node function or autonomic tone that predispose to the development of AF.

METHODS

We examined the association between heart rate response and incident AF in 57,402 (mean age=54±13 years, 47% female, 64% white) patients free of baseline AF who underwent exercise-treadmill stress testing from the Henry Ford ExercIse Testing (FIT) Project. Age-predicted maximum heart rate (pMHR) values <85% and chronotropic index values <80% were used to define chronotropic incompetence. Cox regression, adjusting for demographics, cardiovascular risk factors, medications, coronary heart disease, heart failure, and metabolic equivalent of task achieved, was used to compute hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between chronotropic incompetence and incident AF.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 5.0 years (25^th-75^th percentiles=2.6, 7.8), a total of 3,395 (5.9%) participants developed AF. pMHR values <85% were associated with an increased risk for AF development (HR=1.33, 95%CI=1.22, 1.44). Chronotropic index values <80% also were associated with an increased risk of AF (HR=1.28, 95%CI=1.19, 1.38). The associations of pMHR and chronotropic index with AF remained significant with varying cut-off points to define chronotropic incompetence.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis suggests that patients with inadequate heart rate response during exercise have an increased risk for developing AF.

Sex Differences in Cardiorespiratory Fitness and All-Cause Mortality: The Henry Ford ExercIse Testing (FIT) Project

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether sex modifies the relationship between fitness and mortality.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We included 57,284 patients without coronary artery disease or heart failure who completed a routine treadmill exercise test between 1991 and 2009. We determined metabolic equivalent tasks (METs) and linked patient records with mortality data via the Social Security Death Index. Multivariable Cox regression was used to determine the association between sex, fitness, and all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

There were 29,470 men (51.4%) and 27,814 women (48.6%) with mean ages of 53 and 54 years, respectively. Overall, men achieved 1.7 METs higher than women (P<.001). During median follow-up of 10 years, there were 6402 deaths. The mortality rate for men in each MET group was similar to that for women, who achieved an average of 2.6 METs lower (P=.004). Fitness was inversely associated with mortality in both men (hazard ratio [HR], 0.84 per 1 MET; 95% CI, 0.83-0.85) and women (HR, 0.83 per 1 MET; 95% CI, 0.81-0.84). This relationship did not plateau at high or low MET values.

CONCLUSION

Although men demonstrated 1.7 METs higher than women, their survival was equivalent to that of women demonstrating 2.6 METs lower. Furthermore, higher MET values were associated with lower mortality for both men and women across the range of MET values. These findings are useful for tailoring prognostic information and lifestyle guidance to men and women undergoing stress testing.

The association of clinical indication for exercise stress testing with all-cause mortality: the FIT Project

INTRODUCTION

We hypothesized that the indication for stress testing provided by the referring physician would be an independent predictor of all-cause mortality.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We studied 48,914 patients from The Henry Ford Exercise Testing Project (The FIT Project) without known congestive heart failure who were referred for a clinical treadmill stress test and followed for 11 ±4.7 years. The reason for stress test referral was abstracted from the clinical test order, and should be considered the primary concerning symptom or indication as stated by the ordering clinician. Hierarchical multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was performed, after controlling for potential confounders including demographics, risk factors, and medication use as well as additional adjustment for exercise capacity in the final model.

RESULTS

A total of 67% of the patients were referred for chest pain, 12% for shortness of breath (SOB), 4% for palpitations, 3% for pre-operative evaluation, 6% for abnormal prior testing, and 7% for risk factors only. There were 6,211 total deaths during follow-up. Compared to chest pain, those referred for palpitations (HR = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.60-0.86) and risk factors only (HR = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.63-0.82) had a lower risk of all-cause mortality, whereas those referred for SOB (HR = 1.15, 95% CI: 1.07-1.23) and pre-operative evaluation (HR = 2.11, 95% CI: 1.94-2.30) had an increased risk. In subgroup analysis, referral for palpitations was protective only in those without coronary artery disease (CAD) (HR = 0.75, 95% CI: 0.62-0.90), while SOB increased mortality risk only in those with established CAD (HR = 1.25, 95% CI: 1.10-1.44).

CONCLUSIONS

The indication for stress testing is an independent predictor of mortality, showing an interaction with CAD status. Importantly, SOB may be associated with higher mortality risk than chest pain, particularly in patients with CAD.

The Association of Coronary Artery Calcium With Noncardiovascular Disease: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to determine if coronary artery calcium (CAC) is associated with incident noncardiovascular disease.

BACKGROUND

CAC is considered a measure of vascular aging, associated with increased risk of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. The relationship with noncardiovascular disease is not well defined.

METHODS

A total of 6,814 participants from 6 MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) field centers were followed for a median of 10.2 years. Modified Cox proportional hazards ratios accounting for the competing risk of fatal coronary heart disease were calculated for new diagnoses of cancer, pneumonia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), chronic kidney disease (CKD), deep vein thrombosis/pulmonary embolism, hip fracture, and dementia. Analyses were adjusted for age; sex; race; socioeconomic status; health insurance status; body mass index; physical activity; diet; tobacco use; number of medications used; systolic and diastolic blood pressure; total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol; antihypertensive, aspirin, and cholesterol medication; and diabetes. The outcome was first incident noncardiovascular disease diagnosis.

RESULTS

Compared with those with CAC = 0, those with CAC >400 had an increased hazard of cancer (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.53; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.18 to 1.99), CKD (HR: 1.70; 95% CI: 1.21 to 2.39), pneumonia (HR: 1.97; 95% CI: 1.37 to 2.82), COPD (HR: 2.71; 95% CI: 1.60 to 4.57), and hip fracture (HR: 4.29; 95% CI: 1.47 to 12.50). CAC >400 was not associated with dementia or deep vein thrombosis/pulmonary embolism. Those with CAC = 0 had decreased risk of cancer (HR: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.63 to 0.92), CKD (HR: 0.77; 95% CI: 0.60 to 0.98), COPD (HR: 0.61; 95% CI: 0.40 to 0.91), and hip fracture (HR: 0.31; 95% CI: 0.14 to 0.70) compared to those with CAC >0. CAC = 0 was not associated with less pneumonia, dementia, or deep vein thrombosis/pulmonary embolism. The results were attenuated, but remained significant, after removing participants developing interim nonfatal coronary heart disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Participants with elevated CAC were at increased risk of cancer, CKD, COPD, and hip fractures. Those with CAC = 0 are less likely to develop common age-related comorbid conditions, and represent a unique population of "healthy agers."

Distribution and burden of newly detected coronary artery calcium: Results from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

BACKGROUND

The transition from no coronary artery calcium (CAC) to detectable CAC is important, as even mild CAC is associated with increased cardiovascular events. We sought to characterize the anatomic distribution and burden of newly detectable CAC over 10-year follow-up.

METHODS

We evaluated 3112 participants (mean age, 58 years; 64% female) with baseline CAC = 0 from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Participants underwent repeat CAC testing at different time intervals (between 2-10 years after baseline) per the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis protocol. Among participants who developed CAC on a follow-up scan, we used logistic regression and marginal probability modeling to describe the coronary distribution and burden of new CAC by age, sex, and race after adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors and time to detection.

RESULTS

A total of 1125 participants developed detectable CAC during follow-up with a mean time to detection of 6.1 ± 3 years. New CAC was most commonly isolated to 1 vessel (72% of participants), with the left anterior descending artery (44% of total) most commonly affected followed by the right coronary (12%), left circumflex (10%), and left main (6%). These patterns were similar across age, sex, and race. In multivariate models, residual predictors of multivessel CAC (28% of total) included male sex, African American or Hispanic race, hypertension, obesity, and diabetes. At the first detection of CAC >0, burden was usually low with median Agatston CAC score of 7.1 and <5% with CAC scores >100.

CONCLUSION

New-onset CAC most commonly involves just 1 vessel, occurs in the left anterior descending artery, and has low CAC burden. New CAC can be detected at an early stage when aggressive preventive strategies may provide benefit.

The association of resistin with cardiovascular disease in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

OBJECTIVE

To describe the relationship between circulating resistin levels and cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and all-cause death in a multi-ethnic cohort.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We studied 1913 participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis with measurements of plasma resistin levels. Absolute proportions experiencing new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF), atherosclerotic CVD (myocardial infarction, angina, resuscitated cardiac arrest, stroke), heart failure (HF), and all-cause death were calculated for each quartile of resistin. We used adjusted Cox proportional regression modeling resistin as a continuous variable per standard deviation of log-transformed resistin and secondarily as a categorical variable using resistin quartiles. Results were stratified by sex and race/ethnicity. The mean age of the population was 64.5 ± 10 years with half being female and a median resistin concentration of 15.1 ng/mL (11.9-19.1). Mean follow-up time was 7.2 ± 1.8 years. There was a graded increase in the occurrence of all outcomes across increasing quartiles of resistin. Modeled as a continuous variable, after adjustment for anthropomorphic measures, traditional risk factors, markers of inflammation, and other adipokines, significant associations were noted for HF (HR 1.4, CI 1.0-2.0), hard and all CVD (HR 1.3, 1.1-1.7 and 1.3, 1.1-1.6, respectively), and CHD (HR 1.31, 1.0-1.6), but not for AF or death. Significant interaction terms were noted between resistin and race, with Hispanic race/ethnicity showing the strongest relationship between resistin and outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

In an ethnically diverse population without known CVD at baseline, there was a strong, independent association between higher resistin levels and incident CVD, CHD and HF.

The new "intermediate risk" group: a comparative analysis of the new 2013 ACC/AHA risk assessment guidelines versus prior guidelines in men

BACKGROUND

The 2013 ACC/AHA Report on the Assessment of Cardiovascular (CVD) Risk redefined "intermediate risk". We sought to critically compare the intermediate risk groups identified by prior guidelines and the new ACC/AHA guidelines.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 30,005 adult men free of known CVD from a large, multi-ethnic study of middle-aged adults. The Framingham Risk Score was calculated using published equations, and CVD risk was calculated using the new ACC/AHA Pooled Cohort Equations Risk Estimator. We first compared the size and characteristics of the intermediate risk group identified by the old (ATP III, 10-20% 10-year CHD risk) and new guidelines (5-7.4% 10-year CVD risk). We then defined time-to-high-risk as the length of time an individual patient resides in the intermediate risk group before progressing to high risk status based on advancing age alone.

RESULTS

The mean age of the study population was 53 ± 13 years, and 24% were African-American. Patients identified as intermediate risk by the new ACC/AHA Guidelines were younger and more likely to be African-American and have lower risk factor burden (all p < 0.05). The new intermediate risk group was just 37% the size of the traditional ATP III intermediate risk group, while the new high risk group was 103% larger. Under the new guidelines, men remain intermediate risk for an average of just 3 years, compared to 8 years under the prior guidelines (63% shorter time-to-high-risk, p < 0.05), before progressing to high risk based on advancing age alone.

CONCLUSION

The new 2013 ACC/AHA risk assessment guidelines produce a markedly smaller, lower absolute risk, and more temporary "intermediate risk" group. These findings reshape the modern understanding of "intermediate risk", and have distinct implications for risk assessment, clinical decision making, and pharmacotherapy in primary prevention.