Reductions in smoking due to ratification of the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control in 171 countries

Smoking globally kills over half of long-term smokers and causes about 7 million annual deaths. The World Health Organization Framework Convention for Tobacco Control (FCTC) is the main global policy strategy to combat smoking, but its effectiveness is uncertain. Our interrupted time series analyses compared before- and after-FCTC trends in the numbers and prevalence of smokers below the age of 25 years (when smoking initiation occurs and during which response to interventions is greatest) and on cessation at 45-59 years (when quitting probably occurs) in 170 countries, excluding China. Contrasting the 10 years after FCTC ratification with the income-specific before-FCTC trends, we observed cumulative decreases of 15.5% (95% confidence interval = -33.2 to -0.7) for the numbers of current smokers and decreases of -7.5% (95% CI = -10.6 to -4.5) for the prevalence of smoking below age 25 years. The quit ratio (comparing the numbers of former and ever smokers) at 45-59 years increased by 1.8% (1.2 to 2.3) 10 years after FCTC ratification. Countries raising taxes by at least 10 percentage points concurrent with ratification observed steeper decreases in all three outcomes than countries that did not. Over a decade across 170 countries, the FCTC was associated with 24 million fewer young smokers and 2 million more quitters.

Health effects associated with chewing tobacco: a Burden of Proof study

Chewing tobacco use poses serious health risks; yet it has not received as much attention as other tobacco-related products. This study synthesizes existing evidence regarding the health impacts of chewing tobacco while accounting for various sources of uncertainty. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of chewing tobacco and seven health outcomes, drawing on 103 studies published from 1970 to 2023. We use a Burden of Proof meta-analysis to generate conservative risk estimates and find weak-to-moderate evidence that tobacco chewers have an increased risk of stroke, lip and oral cavity cancer, esophageal cancer, nasopharynx cancer, other pharynx cancer, and laryngeal cancer. We additionally find insufficient evidence of an association between chewing tobacco and ischemic heart disease. Our findings highlight a need for policy makers, researchers, and communities at risk to devote greater attention to chewing tobacco by both advancing tobacco control efforts and investing in strengthening the existing evidence base.

Health effects associated with exposure to secondhand smoke: a Burden of Proof study

Despite a gradual decline in smoking rates over time, exposure to secondhand smoke (SHS) continues to cause harm to nonsmokers, who are disproportionately children and women living in low- and middle-income countries. We comprehensively reviewed the literature published by July 2022 concerning the adverse impacts of SHS exposure on nine health outcomes. Following, we quantified each exposure-response association accounting for various sources of uncertainty and evaluated the strength of the evidence supporting our analyses using the Burden of Proof Risk Function methodology. We found all nine health outcomes to be associated with SHS exposure. We conservatively estimated that SHS increases the risk of ischemic heart disease, stroke, type 2 diabetes and lung cancer by at least around 8%, 5%, 1% and 1%, respectively, with the evidence supporting these harmful associations rated as weak (two stars). The evidence supporting the harmful associations between SHS and otitis media, asthma, lower respiratory infections, breast cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease was weaker (one star). Despite the weak underlying evidence for these associations, our results reinforce the harmful effects of SHS on health and the need to prioritize advancing efforts to reduce active and passive smoking through a combination of public health policies and education initiatives.

Aedes aegypti Argonaute 2 controls arbovirus infection and host mortality

Ae. aegypti mosquitoes transmit some of the most important human viral diseases that are responsible for a significant public health burden worldwide. The small interfering RNA (siRNA) pathway is considered the major antiviral defense system in insects. Here we show that siRNA pathway disruption by CRISPR/Cas9-based Ago2 knockout impaired the mosquitoes' ability to degrade arbovirus RNA leading to hyper-infection accompanied by cell lysis and tissue damage. Ago2 disruption impaired DNA repair mechanisms and the autophagy pathway by altering histone abundance. This compromised DNA repair and removal of damaged cellular organelles and dysfunctional aggregates promoted mosquito death. We also report that hyper-infection of Ago2 knockout mosquitoes stimulated a broad-spectrum antiviral immunity, including apoptosis, which may counteract infection. Taken together, our studies reveal novel roles for Ago2 in protecting mosquitoes from arbovirus infection and associated death.

Health effects associated with vegetable consumption: a Burden of Proof study

Previous research suggests a protective effect of vegetable consumption against chronic disease, but the quality of evidence underlying those findings remains uncertain. We applied a Bayesian meta-regression tool to estimate the mean risk function and quantify the quality of evidence for associations between vegetable consumption and ischemic heart disease (IHD), ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, type 2 diabetes and esophageal cancer. Increasing from no vegetable consumption to the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (306-372 g daily) was associated with a 23.2% decline (95% uncertainty interval, including between-study heterogeneity: 16.4-29.4) in ischemic stroke risk; a 22.9% (13.6-31.3) decline in IHD risk; a 15.9% (1.7-28.1) decline in hemorrhagic stroke risk; a 28.5% (-0.02-51.4) decline in esophageal cancer risk; and a 26.1% (-3.6-48.3) decline in type 2 diabetes risk. We found statistically significant protective effects of vegetable consumption for ischemic stroke (three stars), IHD (two stars), hemorrhagic stroke (two stars) and esophageal cancer (two stars). Including between-study heterogeneity, we did not detect a significant association with type 2 diabetes, corresponding to a one-star rating. Although current evidence supports increased efforts and policies to promote vegetable consumption, remaining uncertainties suggest the need for continued research.

The Burden of Proof studies: assessing the evidence of risk

Exposure to risks throughout life results in a wide variety of outcomes. Objectively judging the relative impact of these risks on personal and population health is fundamental to individual survival and societal prosperity. Existing mechanisms to quantify and rank the magnitude of these myriad effects and the uncertainty in their estimation are largely subjective, leaving room for interpretation that can fuel academic controversy and add to confusion when communicating risk. We present a new suite of meta-analyses-termed the Burden of Proof studies-designed specifically to help evaluate these methodological issues objectively and quantitatively. Through this data-driven approach that complements existing systems, including GRADE and Cochrane Reviews, we aim to aggregate evidence across multiple studies and enable a quantitative comparison of risk-outcome pairs. We introduce the burden of proof risk function (BPRF), which estimates the level of risk closest to the null hypothesis that is consistent with available data. Here we illustrate the BPRF methodology for the evaluation of four exemplar risk-outcome pairs: smoking and lung cancer, systolic blood pressure and ischemic heart disease, vegetable consumption and ischemic heart disease, and unprocessed red meat consumption and ischemic heart disease. The strength of evidence for each relationship is assessed by computing and summarizing the BPRF, and then translating the summary to a simple star rating. The Burden of Proof methodology provides a consistent way to understand, evaluate and summarize evidence of risk across different risk-outcome pairs, and informs risk analysis conducted as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study.

Health effects associated with smoking: a Burden of Proof study

As a leading behavioral risk factor for numerous health outcomes, smoking is a major ongoing public health challenge. Although evidence on the health effects of smoking has been widely reported, few attempts have evaluated the dose-response relationship between smoking and a diverse range of health outcomes systematically and comprehensively. In the present study, we re-estimated the dose-response relationships between current smoking and 36 health outcomes by conducting systematic reviews up to 31 May 2022, employing a meta-analytic method that incorporates between-study heterogeneity into estimates of uncertainty. Among the 36 selected outcomes, 8 had strong-to-very-strong evidence of an association with smoking, 21 had weak-to-moderate evidence of association and 7 had no evidence of association. By overcoming many of the limitations of traditional meta-analyses, our approach provides comprehensive, up-to-date and easy-to-use estimates of the evidence on the health effects of smoking. These estimates provide important information for tobacco control advocates, policy makers, researchers, physicians, smokers and the public.

Plasmodium vivax chloroquine resistance links to pvcrt transcription in a genetic cross

Mainstay treatment for Plasmodium vivax malaria has long relied on chloroquine (CQ) against blood-stage parasites plus primaquine against dormant liver-stage forms (hypnozoites), however drug resistance confronts this regimen and threatens malaria control programs. Understanding the basis of P. vivax chloroquine resistance (CQR) will inform drug discovery and malaria control. Here we investigate the genetics of P. vivax CQR by a cross of parasites differing in drug response. Gametocytogenesis, mosquito infection, and progeny production are performed with mixed parasite populations in nonhuman primates, as methods for P. vivax cloning and in vitro cultivation remain unavailable. Linkage mapping of progeny surviving >15 mg/kg CQ identifies a 76 kb region in chromosome 1 including pvcrt, an ortholog of the Plasmodium falciparum CQR transporter gene. Transcriptional analysis supports upregulated pvcrt expression as a mechanism of CQR.