The influence of economic policies on social environments and mental health

Despite increased advocacy and investments in mental health systems globally, there has been limited progress in reducing mental disorder prevalence. In this paper, we argue that meaningful advancements in population mental health necessitate addressing the fundamental sources of shared distress. Using a systems perspective, economic structures and policies are identified as the potential cause of causes of mental ill-health. Neoliberal ideologies, prioritizing economic optimization and continuous growth, contribute to the promotion of individualism, job insecurity, increasing demands on workers, parental stress, social disconnection and a broad range of manifestations well-recognized to erode mental health. We emphasize the need for mental health researchers and advocates to increasingly engage with the economic policy discourse to draw attention to mental health and well-being implications. We call for a shift towards a well-being economy to better align commercial interests with collective well-being and social prosperity. The involvement of individuals with lived mental ill-health experiences, practitioners and researchers is needed to mobilize communities for change and influence economic policies to safeguard well-being. Additionally, we call for the establishment of national mental wealth observatories to inform coordinated health, social and economic policies and realize the transition to a more sustainable well-being economy that offers promise for progress on population mental health outcomes.

Mental health impacts of COVID-19: A retrospective analysis of dynamic modelling projections for Australia

Background

In early 2020, we developed a dynamic model to support policy responses aimed at mitigating the adverse mental health effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia. As the pandemic has progressed, it has become clear that our initial model forecasts overestimated the impacts of infection control measures (lockdowns, physical distancing, etc.) on suicide, intentional self-harm hospitalisation, and mental health-related emergency department (ED) presentation rates.

Methods

Potential explanations for the divergence of our model predictions from observed outcomes were assessed by comparing simulation results for a set of progressively more refined models with data on the prevalence of moderate to very high psychological distress and numbers of suicides, intentional self-harm hospitalisations, and mental health-related ED presentations published after our modelling was released in July 2020.

Results

Allowing per capita rates of spontaneous recovery and intentional self-harm to differ between people experiencing moderate to very high psychological distress prior to the pandemic and those developing comparable levels of psychological distress only as a consequence of infection control measures substantially improves the fit of our model to empirical estimates of the prevalence of psychological distress and leads to significantly lower predicted effects of COVID-19 on suicide, intentional self-harm hospitalisation, and mental health-related ED presentation rates.

Conclusion

Accommodating the influence of prior mental health on the psychological effects of population-wide social and economic disruption is likely to be critical for accurately forecasting the mental health impacts of future public health crises as they inevitably arise.

Cost-effectiveness of system-level mental health strategies for young people in the Australian Capital Territory: a dynamic simulation modelling study

BACKGROUND

Regional mental health planning is a key challenge for decision makers because mental health care is a complex, dynamic system. Economic evaluation using a system dynamics modelling approach presents an opportunity for more sophisticated planning and important evidence on the value of alternative investments. We aimed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of eight systems-based interventions targeted at improving the mental health and wellbeing of children, adolescents, and young adults in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT).

METHODS

We assessed eight interventions for children and young people (aged ≤25 years) with low, moderate, and high-to-very-high psychological distress: technology-enabled integrated care, emergency department-based suicide prevention, crisis response service, family education programme, online parenting programme, school-based suicide prevention programme, trauma service for youths, and multicultural-informed care. We developed a system dynamics model for the ACT through a participatory process and calibrated the model with historical data, including population demographics, the prevalence of psychological distress, and mental health services provision. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios compared with business as usual for cost (AU$) per: quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), suicide death avoided, self-harm related hospital admissions avoided, and mental health-related emergency department presentation, using a 10-year time horizon for health-care and societal perspectives. We investigated uncertainty through probabilistic sensitivity analysis and deterministic sensitivity analysis, including using a 30-year timeframe.

FINDINGS

From a societal perspective, increased investment in technology-enabled integrated care, family education, an online parenting programme, and multicultural-informed care were expected to improve health outcomes (incremental QALYs 4517 [95% UI -3135 to 14 507] for technology-enabled integrated care; 339 [91 to 661] for family education; 724 [114 to 1149] for the online parenting programme; and 137 [88 to 194] for multicultural-informed care) and reduce costs ($-91·4 million [-382·7 to 100·7]; $-12·8 million [-21·0 to -6·6]; $-3·6 million  [-6·3 to 0·2]; and $-3·1 million [-4·5 to -1·8], respectively) compared with business as usual using a 10-year time horizon. The incremental net monetary benefit for the societal perspective for these four interventions was $452 million (-351 to 1555), $40 million (14 to 74), $61 million (9 to 98), and $14 million (9 to 20), respectively, compared with business as usual, when QALYs were monetised using a willingness to pay of $79 930 per QALY. Synergistic effects are anticipated if these interventions were to be implemented concurrently. The univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses indicated a high level of certainty in the results. Although emergency department-based suicide prevention and school-based suicide prevention were not cost effective in the base case (41 QALYs [0 to 48], incremental cost $4·1 million [1·2 to 8·2] for emergency department-based suicide prevention; -234 QALYs [-764 to 12], incremental cost $90·3 million [72·2 to 111·0] for school-based suicide prevention) compared with business as usual, there were scenarios for which these interventions could be considered cost effective. A dedicated trauma service for young people (9 QALYs gained [4 to 16], incremental cost $8·3 million [6·8 to 10·0]) and a crisis response service (-11 QALYs gained [-12 to -10], incremental cost $7·8 million [5·1 to 11·0]) were unlikely to be cost effective in terms of QALYs.

INTERPRETATION

Synergistic effects were identified, supporting the combined implementation of technology-enabled integrated care, family education, an online parenting programme, and multicultural-informed care. Synergistic effects, emergent outcomes in the form of unintended consequences, the capability to account for service capacity constraints, and ease of use by stakeholders are unique attributes of a system dynamics modelling approach to economic evaluation.

FUNDING

BHP Foundation.

Dynamic modelling of the impact of community-based acute mental health services for children and adolescents

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the potential impact of the recently announced 'Safeguards' initiative on mental health-related emergency department presentation rates for children and adolescents (0-17 years). This state-funded initiative aims to establish 25 Child and Adolescent Acute Response Teams across New South Wales.

METHODS

We estimated the effects of the 'Safeguards' initiative using a state-level dynamic model of child and adolescent acute mental health care. Potential reductions in total numbers of mental health-related emergency department presentations and re-presentations (i.e. presentations within 3 months of an initial presentation) were assessed via a series of simulation experiments in which we systematically varied the total number of Child and Adolescent Acute Response Teams and the mean duration of care per patient.

RESULTS

Assuming a mean treatment duration of 6 weeks per patient, 25 Child and Adolescent Acute Response Teams are projected to reduce total numbers of mental health-related emergency department presentations and re-presentations over the period 2022-2031 by 15.0% (95% interval, 12.0-18.2%) and 31.7% (26.2-37.8%), respectively. Increasing the total number of Child and Adolescent Acute Response Teams above 25 has minimal additional impact on projected reductions in numbers of emergency department presentations and re-presentations, provided the mean duration of care is no more than 8 weeks. However, where the mean duration of care is greater than 4 weeks, a decrease in the number of Child and Adolescent Acute Response Teams below 25 reduces the potential effectiveness of the 'Safeguards' initiative significantly.

CONCLUSION

Our simulation results indicate that full and timely implementation will be critical if the potentially substantial impact of the 'Safeguards' initiative on demand for hospital-based emergency mental health care is to be realised.

Population-level effectiveness of alternative approaches to preventing mental disorders in adolescents and young adults

Preventive interventions that are effective in reducing the incidence of mental disorders in adolescence and early adulthood may impact substantially on lifetime economic, educational, and health outcomes; however, relatively few studies have examined the capacity of alternative approaches to preventing youth mental disorders (specifically, universal, selective, and indicated prevention) to reduce disorder incidence at a population level. Using a dynamic model of the onset of non-specific, relatively mild symptoms and progression to more severe disease, we show that: (1) indicated preventive interventions, targeting adolescents and young adults experiencing subthreshold symptoms, may often be more effective in reducing mental disorder prevalence than universal interventions delivered to the general population (contrary to the widely accepted view that a 'high risk' prevention strategy, focussing on those individuals with the greatest risk of developing a disorder, will generally be less effective than a whole-population strategy); and (2) the ability of selective preventive interventions (targeting vulnerable, asymptomatic youth) to alter the prevalence of mental disorders is severely restricted by an inverse relationship between the prevalence of significant risk factors for mental illness and the relative risk of developing symptoms.

Mental health systems modelling for evidence-informed service reform in Australia

Australia's Fifth National Mental Health Plan required governments to report, not only on the progress of changes to mental health service delivery, but to also plan for services that should be provided. Future population demand for treatment and care is challenging to predict and one solution involves modelling the uncertain demands on the system. Modelling can help decision-makers understand likely future changes in mental health service demand and more intelligently choose appropriate responses. It can also support greater scrutiny, accountability and transparency of these processes. Australia has an emerging national capacity for systems modelling in mental health which can enhance the next phase of mental health reform. This paper introduces concepts useful for understanding mental health modelling and identifies where modelling approaches can support health service planners to make evidence-informed decisions regarding planning and investment for the Australian population.

Patterns of emergency department presentations for a youth mental health cohort: data-linkage cohort study

BACKGROUND

Primary youth mental health services in Australia have increased access to care for young people, yet the longer-term outcomes and utilisation of other health services among these populations is unclear.

AIMS

To describe the emergency department presentation patterns of a help-seeking youth mental health cohort.

METHOD

Data linkage was performed to extract Emergency Department Data Collection registry data (i.e. emergency department presentations, pattern of re-presentations) for a transdiagnostic cohort of 7024 youths (aged 12-30 years) who presented to mental health services. Outcome measures were pattern of presentations and reason for presentations (i.e. mental illness; suicidal behaviours and self-harm; alcohol and substance use; accident and injury; physical illness; and other).

RESULTS

During the follow-up period, 5372 (76.5%) had at least one emergency department presentation. The presentation rate was lower for males (IRR = 0.87, 95% CI 0.86-0.89) and highest among those aged 18 to 24 (IRR = 1.117, 95% CI 1.086-1.148). Almost one-third (31.12%) had an emergency department presentation that was directly associated with mental illness or substance use, and the most common reasons for presentation were for physical illness and accident or injury. Index visits for mental illness or substance use were associated with a higher rate of re-presentation.

CONCLUSIONS

Most young people presenting to primary mental health services also utilised emergency services. The preventable and repeated nature of many presentations suggests that reducing the ongoing secondary risks of mental disorders (i.e. substance misuse, suicidality, physical illness) could substantially improve the mental and physical health outcomes of young people.

Which programmes and policies across health and community settings will generate the most significant impacts for youth suicide prevention in Australia and the UK? Protocol for a systems modelling and simulation study

INTRODUCTION

Suicide is a leading cause of mortality among young people aged 15-24 globally. Despite the deployment of comprehensive suicide prevention strategies, we still do not know which interventions, for which groups of young people, for how long and with what intensity could generate the most significant reductions in suicide rates. System dynamics modelling has the potential to address these gaps. SEYMOUR (System Dynamics Modelling for Suicide Prevention) will develop and evaluate a system dynamics model that will indicate which suicide prevention interventions could generate the most significant reductions in rates of suicide and attempted suicide among young people aged 12-25 in Australia and the UK.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A comparative case study design, applying participatory system dynamics modelling in North-West Melbourne (Australia) and Birmingham (UK). A computer simulation model of mental health service pathways and suicidal behaviour among young people in North-West Melbourne will be developed through three workshops with expert stakeholder groups (young people with lived experience, carers, clinicians, policy makers, commissioners). The model will be calibrated and validated using national, state and local datasets (inputs). The simulation model will test a series of interventions identified in the workshops for inclusion. Primary model outputs include suicide deaths, self-harm hospitalisations and self-harm presentations to emergency departments. An implementation strategy for the sustainable embedding of promising suicide prevention interventions will be developed. This will be followed by model customisation, re-parameterisation, and validation in Birmingham and adaptation of the implementation strategy.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The project has received approval from the University of Melbourne Human Research Ethics Committee (2022-22885-25971-4), the University of Birmingham Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics Ethics Review Committee (ERN_21-02385) and the UK HRA (22/HRA/3826). SEYMOUR's dissemination strategy includes open-access academic publications, conference presentations, accessible findings coproduced with young people, e-briefs to policy makers, webinars for service providers and commissioners.

Unemployment and underemployment are causes of suicide

Epidemiological studies indicate that labor underutilization and suicide are associated, yet it remains unclear whether this association is causal. We applied convergent cross mapping to test for causal effects of unemployment and underemployment on suicidal behavior, using monthly data on labor underutilization and suicide rates in Australia for the period 2004-2016. Our analyses provide evidence that rates of unemployment and underemployment were significant drivers of suicide mortality in Australia over the 13-year study period. Predictive modeling indicates that 9.5% of the ~32,000 suicides reported between 2004 and 2016 resulted directly from labor underutilization, including 1575 suicides attributable to unemployment and 1496 suicides attributable to underemployment. We conclude that economic policies prioritizing full employment should be considered integral to any comprehensive national suicide prevention strategy.

Social Return on Investment of Social Prescribing via a Diabetes Technician for Preventing Type 2 Diabetes Progression

In Wales, the prevalence of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) has increased from 7.3% in 2016 to 8% in 2020, creating a major concern for the National Health Service (NHS). Social prescribing (SP) has been found to decrease T2DM prevalence and improve wellbeing. The MY LIFE programme, a scheme evaluated between June 2021 and February 2022 in the Conwy West Primary Care Cluster, aimed to prevent T2DM by referring prediabetic patients with a BMI of ≥30 to a diabetes technician (DT), who then signposted patients to community-based SP programmes, such as the National Exercise Referral Scheme (NERS), KindEating, and Slimming World. Although some patients engaged with SP, others chose to connect only with the DT. A Social Return on Investment (SROI) analysis was conducted to evaluate those patients who engaged with the DT plus SP, and those who connected solely with the DT. Relevant participant outcomes included 'mental wellbeing' and 'good overall health', which were measured at baseline (n = 54) and at the eight-week follow-up (n = 24). The estimated social value for every GBP 1 invested for participants who engaged with the 'DT only' ranged from GBP 4.67 to 4.70. The social value for participants who engaged with the 'DT plus SP programme' ranged from GBP 4.23 to 5.07. The results indicated that most of the social value generated was associated with connecting with the DT.

Premature mortality in young people accessing early intervention youth mental healthcare: data-linkage cohort study

BACKGROUND

Understanding premature mortality risk from suicide and other causes in youth mental health cohorts is essential for delivering effective clinical interventions and secondary prevention strategies.

AIMS

To establish premature mortality risk in young people accessing early intervention mental health services and identify predictors of mortality.

METHOD

State-wide data registers of emergency departments, hospital admissions and mortality were linked to the Brain and Mind Research Register, a longitudinal cohort of 7081 young people accessing early intervention care, between 2008 and 2020. Outcomes were mortality rates and age-standardised mortality ratios (SMR). Cox regression was used to identify predictors of all-cause mortality and deaths due to suicide or accident.

RESULTS

There were 60 deaths (male 63.3%) during the study period, 25 (42%) due to suicide, 19 (32%) from accident or injury and eight (13.3%) where cause was under investigation. All-cause SMR was 2.0 (95% CI 1.6-2.6) but higher for males (5.3, 95% CI 3.8-7.0). The mortality rate from suicide and accidental deaths was 101.56 per 100 000 person-years. Poisoning, whether intentional or accidental, was the single greatest primary cause of death (26.7%). Prior emergency department presentation for poisoning (hazard ratio (HR) 4.40, 95% CI 2.13-9.09) and psychiatric admission (HR 4.01, 95% CI 1.81-8.88) were the strongest predictors of mortality.

CONCLUSION

Premature mortality in young people accessing early intervention mental health services is greatly increased relative to population. Prior health service use and method of self-harm are useful predictors of future mortality. Enhanced care pathways following emergency department presentations should not be limited to those reporting suicidal ideation or intent.

Improving access to mental health care: a system dynamics model of direct access to specialist care and accelerated specialist service capacity growth

OBJECTIVE

To simulate the impact on population mental health indicators of allowing people to book some Medicare-subsidised sessions with psychologists and other mental health care professionals without a referral (direct access), and of increasing the annual growth rate in specialist mental health care capacity (consultations).

DESIGN

System dynamics model, calibrated using historical time series data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, HealthStats NSW, the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, and the Australian Early Development Census. Parameter values that could not be derived from these sources were estimated by constrained optimisation.

SETTING

New South Wales, 1 September 2021 - 1 September 2028.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Projected mental health-related emergency department presentations, hospitalisations following self-harm, and deaths by suicide, both overall and for people aged 15-24 years.

RESULTS

Direct access (for 10-50% of people requiring specialist mental health care) would lead to increases in the numbers of mental health-related emergency department presentations (0.33-1.68% of baseline), hospitalisations with self-harm (0.16-0.77%), and deaths by suicide (0.19-0.90%), as waiting times for consultations would increase, leading to disengagement and consequently to increases in adverse outcomes. Increasing the annual rate of growth of mental health service capacity (two- to fivefold) would reduce the frequency of all three outcomes; combining direct access to a proportion of services with increased growth in capacity achieved substantially greater gains than an increase in service capacity alone. A fivefold increase in the annual service growth rate would increase capacity by 71.6% by the end of 2028, compared with current projections; combined with direct access to 50% of mental health consultations, 26 616 emergency department presentations (3.6%), 1199 hospitalisations following self-harm (1.9%), and 158 deaths by suicide (2.1%) could be averted.

CONCLUSION

The optimal combination of increased service capacity growth (fivefold) and direct access (50% of consultations) would have double the impact over seven years of accelerated capacity growth alone. Our model highlights the risks of implementing individual reforms without knowledge of their overall system effect.

Bi-stability and critical transitions in mental health care systems: a model-based analysis

BACKGROUND

Delayed initiation and early discontinuation of treatment due to limited availability and accessibility of services may often result in people with mild or moderate mental disorders developing more severe disorders, leading to an increase in demand for specialised care that would be expected to further restrict service availability and accessibility (due to increased waiting times, higher out-of-pocket costs, etc.).

METHODS

We developed a simple system dynamics model of the interaction of specialised services capacity and disease progression to examine the impact of service availability and accessibility on the effectiveness and efficiency of mental health care systems.

RESULTS

Model analysis indicates that, under certain conditions, increasing services capacity can precipitate an abrupt, step-like transition from a state of persistently high unmet need for specialised services to an alternative, stable state in which people presenting for care receive immediate and effective treatment. This qualitative shift in services system functioning results from a 'virtuous cycle' in which increasing treatment-dependent recovery among patients with mild to moderate disorders reduces the number of severely ill patients requiring intensive and/or prolonged treatment, effectively 'releasing' services capacity that can be used to further reduce the disease progression rate. We present an empirical case study of tertiary-level child and adolescent mental health services in the Australian state of South Australia demonstrating that the conditions under which such critical transitions can occur apply in real-world services systems.

CONCLUSIONS

Policy and planning decisions aimed at increasing specialised services capacity have the potential to dramatically increase the effectiveness and efficiency of mental health care systems, promoting long-term sustainability and resilience in the face of future threats to population mental health (e.g., economic crises, natural disasters, global pandemics).

Population mental health improves with increasing access to treatment: evidence from a dynamic modelling analysis

BACKGROUND

Multiple studies indicate that the prevalence of mental disorders in high-income countries has remained stable or increased despite substantial increases in the provision of care, leading some authors to question the effectiveness of increasing access to current treatments as a means of improving population mental health.

METHODS

We developed a system dynamics model of mental disorder incidence and treatment-dependent recovery to assess two potential explanations for the apparent failure of increasing treatment provision to reduce mental disorder prevalence: 1) an increase in the individual-level risk of disorder onset; and 2) declining effectiveness of care resulting from insufficient services capacity growth. Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods were used to fit the model to data on the prevalence of high to very high psychological distress in Australia for the period 2008-2019.

RESULTS

Estimates of yearly rates of increase in the per capita incidence of high to very high psychological distress and the proportion of patients recovering when treated indicate that the individual-level risk of developing high to very high levels of distress increased between 2008 and 2019 (posterior probability > 0.999) but provide no evidence for declining treatment effectiveness. Simulation analyses suggest that the prevalence of high to very high psychological distress would have decreased from 14.4% in 2008 to 13.6% in 2019 if per capita incidence had not increased over this period (prevalence difference 0.0079, 95% credible interval 0.0015-0.0176).

CONCLUSIONS

Our analyses indicate that a modest but significant effect of increasing access to mental health care in Australia between 2008 and 2019 was obscured by a concurrent increase in the incidence of high to very high psychological distress.

Epidemiology and impact of frailty in patients with atrial fibrillation in Europe

BACKGROUND

Frailty is a medical syndrome characterised by reduced physiological reserve and increased vulnerability to stressors. Data regarding the relationship between frailty and atrial fibrillation (AF) are still inconsistent.

OBJECTIVES

We aim to perform a comprehensive evaluation of frailty in a large European cohort of AF patients.

METHODS

A 40-item frailty index (FI) was built according to the accumulation of deficits model in the AF patients enrolled in the ESC-EHRA EORP-AF General Long-Term Registry. Association of baseline characteristics, clinical management, quality of life, healthcare resources use and risk of outcomes with frailty was examined.

RESULTS

Among 10,177 patients [mean age (standard deviation) 69.0 (11.4) years, 4,103 (40.3%) females], 6,066 (59.6%) were pre-frail and 2,172 (21.3%) were frail, whereas only 1,939 (19.1%) were considered robust. Baseline thromboembolic and bleeding risks were independently associated with increasing FI. Frail patients with AF were less likely to be treated with oral anticoagulants (OACs) (odds ratio 0.70, 95% confidence interval 0.55-0.89), especially with non-vitamin K antagonist OACs and managed with a rhythm control strategy, compared with robust patients. Increasing frailty was associated with a higher risk for all outcomes examined, with a non-linear exponential relationship. The use of OAC was associated with a lower risk of outcomes, except in patients with very/extremely high frailty.

CONCLUSIONS

In this large cohort of AF patients, there was a high burden of frailty, influencing clinical management and risk of adverse outcomes. The clinical benefit of OAC is maintained in patients with high frailty, but not in very high/extremely frail ones.

Measuring, Modeling, and Forecasting the Mental Wealth of Nations

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the deep links and fragility of economic, health and social systems. Discussions of reconstruction include renewed interest in moving beyond GDP and recognizing "human capital", "brain capital", "mental capital", and "wellbeing" as assets fundamental to economic reimagining, productivity, and prosperity. This paper describes how the conceptualization of Mental Wealth provides an important framing for measuring and shaping social and economic renewal to underpin healthy, productive, resilient, and thriving communities. We propose a transdisciplinary application of systems modeling to forecast a nation's Mental Wealth and understand the extent to which policy-mediated changes in economic, social, and health sectors could enhance collective mental health and wellbeing, social cohesion, and national prosperity. Specifically, simulation will allow comparison of the projected impacts of a range of cross-sector strategies (education sector, mental health system, labor market, and macroeconomic reforms) on GDP and national Mental Wealth, and provide decision support capability for future investments and actions to foster Mental Wealth. Finally, this paper introduces the Mental Wealth Initiative that is harnessing complex systems science to examine the interrelationships between social, commercial, and structural determinants of mental health and wellbeing, and working to empirically challenge the notion that fostering universal social prosperity is at odds with economic and commercial interests.

Missing in action: the right to the highest attainable standard of mental health care

BACKGROUND

The right to the highest attainable standard of mental health remains a distant goal worldwide. The Report of the UN Special Rapporteur on the right of all people to enjoyment of the highest attainable standard of physical and mental health pleaded the urgent need for governments to act through appropriate laws and policies. We argue that Australia is in breach of international obligations, with inadequate access to mental health services, inconsistent mental health legislation across jurisdictions and ongoing structural (systematic) and individual discrimination.

DISCUSSION

Inadequate access to mental health services is a worldwide phenomenon. Australia has committed to international law obligations under the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities (CRPD) to 'promote, protect and ensure the full and equal enjoyment of all human rights and fundamental freedoms by all persons with disability, with respect to their inherent dignity'. This includes people with mental health impairment and this convention includes the right to 'the highest attainable standard of mental health'. Under the Australian Constitution, ratification of this convention enables the national government to pass laws to implement the convention obligations, and such national laws would prevail over any inconsistent state (or territory) laws governing mental health service provision. The authors argue that enabling positive rights through legislation and legally binding mental health service standards may facilitate enhanced accountability and enforcement of such rights. These steps may support critical key stakeholders to improve the standards of mental health service provision supported by the implementation of international obligations, thereby accelerating mental health system reform. Improved legislation would encourage better governance and the evolution of better services, making mental health care more accessible, without structural or individual discrimination, enabling all people to enjoy the highest attainable standard of health.

Presenting a comprehensive multi-scale evaluation framework for participatory modelling programs: A scoping review

INTRODUCTION

Systems modelling and simulation can improve understanding of complex systems to support decision making, better managing system challenges. Advances in technology have facilitated accessibility of modelling by diverse stakeholders, allowing them to engage with and contribute to the development of systems models (participatory modelling). However, despite its increasing applications across a range of disciplines, there is a growing need to improve evaluation efforts to effectively report on the quality, importance, and value of participatory modelling. This paper aims to identify and assess evaluation frameworks, criteria, and/or processes, as well as to synthesize the findings into a comprehensive multi-scale framework for participatory modelling programs.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A scoping review approach was utilized, which involved a systematic literature search via Scopus in consultation with experts to identify and appraise records that described an evaluation framework, criteria, and/or process in the context of participatory modelling. This scoping review is registered with the Open Science Framework.

RESULTS

The review identified 11 studies, which varied in evaluation purposes, terminologies, levels of examination, and time points. The review of studies highlighted areas of overlap and opportunities for further development, which prompted the development of a comprehensive multi-scale evaluation framework to assess participatory modelling programs across disciplines and systems modelling methods. The framework consists of four categories (Feasibility, Value, Change/Action, Sustainability) with 30 evaluation criteria, broken down across project-, individual-, group- and system-level impacts.

DISCUSSION & CONCLUSION

The presented novel framework brings together a significant knowledge base into a flexible, cross-sectoral evaluation effort that considers the whole participatory modelling process. Developed through the rigorous synthesis of multidisciplinary expertise from existing studies, the application of the framework can provide the opportunity to understand practical future implications such as which aspects are particularly important for policy decisions, community learning, and the ongoing improvement of participatory modelling methods.

Premature mortality in early-intervention mental health services: a data linkage study protocol to examine mortality and morbidity outcomes in a cohort of help-seeking young people

INTRODUCTION

Understanding the risk of premature death from suicide, accident and injury and other physical health conditions in people seeking healthcare for mental disorders is essential for delivering targeted clinical interventions and secondary prevention strategies. It is not clear whether morbidity and mortality outcomes in hospital-based adult cohorts are applicable to young people presenting to early-intervention services.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The current data linkage project will establish the Brain and Mind Patient Research Register-Mortality and Morbidity (BPRR-M&M) database. The existing Brain and Mind Research Institute Patient Research Register (BPRR) is a cohort of 6743 young people who have accessed primary care-based early-intervention services; subsets of the BPRR contain rich longitudinal clinical, neurobiological, social and functional data. The BPRR will be linked with the routinely collected health data from emergency department (ED), hospital admission and mortality databases in New South Wales from January 2010 to November 2020. Mortality will be the primary outcome of interest, while hospital presentations will be a secondary outcome. The established BPRR-M&M database will be used to establish mortality rates and rates of ED presentations and hospital admissions. Survival analysis will determine how time to death or hospital presentation varies by identified social, demographic and clinical variables. Bayesian modelling will be used to identify predictors of these morbidity and mortality outcomes.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study has been reviewed and approved by the human research ethics committee of the Sydney Local Health District (2019/ETH00469). All data will be non-identifiable, and research findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals and scientific conference presentations.

Participatory Methods for Systems Modeling of Youth Mental Health: Implementation Protocol

Background

Despite significant investment, mental health issues remain a leading cause of death among young people globally. Sophisticated decision analysis methods are needed to better understand the dynamic and multisector drivers of youth mental health. System modeling can help explore complex issues such as youth mental health and inform strategies to effectively respond to local needs and achieve lasting improvements. The advantages of engaging stakeholders in model development processes have long been recognized; however, the methods for doing so are often not well-described.

Objective

This paper aims to describe the participatory procedures that will be used to support systems modeling for national multisite implementation. The Right Care, First Time, Where You Live research program will focus on regional youth mental health applications of systems modeling in 8 different sites across Australia.

Methods

The participatory model development approach involves an iterative process of engaging with a range of participants, including people with lived experience of mental health issues. Their knowledge of the local systems, pathways, and drivers is combined with the academic literature and data to populate the models and validate their structure. The process centers around 3 workshops where participants interact and actively engage in group model-building activities to define, refine, and validate the systems models. This paper provides a detailed blueprint for the implementation of this process for mental health applications.

Results

The participatory modeling methods described in this paper will be implemented at 2 sites per year from 2022 to 2025. The 8 selected sites have been chosen to capture variations in important factors, including determinants of mental health issues and access to services. Site engagement commenced in August 2021, and the first modeling workshops are scheduled to commence in February 2022.

Conclusions

Mental health system decision makers require tools to help navigate complex environments and leverage interdisciplinary problem-solving. Systems modeling can mobilize data from diverse sources to explore a range of scenarios, including the impact of interventions in different combinations and contexts. Involving stakeholders in the model development process ensures that the model findings are context-relevant and fit-for-purpose to inform decision-making.

International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)

PRR1-10.2196/32988

Sound Decision Making in Uncertain Times: Can Systems Modelling Be Useful for Informing Policy and Planning for Suicide Prevention?

The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated the significant value of systems modelling in supporting proactive and effective public health decision making despite the complexities and uncertainties that characterise an evolving crisis. The same approach is possible in the field of mental health. However, a commonly levelled (but misguided) criticism prevents systems modelling from being more routinely adopted, namely, that the presence of uncertainty around key model input parameters renders a model useless. This study explored whether radically different simulated trajectories of suicide would result in different advice to decision makers regarding the optimal strategy to mitigate the impacts of the pandemic on mental health. Using an existing system dynamics model developed in August 2020 for a regional catchment of Western Australia, four scenarios were simulated to model the possible effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on levels of psychological distress. The scenarios produced a range of projected impacts on suicide deaths, ranging from a relatively small to a dramatic increase. Discordance in the sets of best-performing intervention scenarios across the divergent COVID-mental health trajectories was assessed by comparing differences in projected numbers of suicides between the baseline scenario and each of 286 possible intervention scenarios calculated for two time horizons; 2026 and 2041. The best performing intervention combinations over the period 2021–2041 (i.e., post-suicide attempt assertive aftercare, community support programs to increase community connectedness, and technology enabled care coordination) were highly consistent across all four COVID-19 mental health trajectories, reducing suicide deaths by between 23.9–24.6% against the baseline. However, the ranking of best performing intervention combinations does alter depending on the time horizon under consideration due to non-linear intervention impacts. These findings suggest that systems models can retain value in informing robust decision making despite uncertainty in the trajectories of population mental health outcomes. It is recommended that the time horizon under consideration be sufficiently long to capture the full effects of interventions, and efforts should be made to achieve more timely tracking and access to key population mental health indicators to inform model refinements over time and reduce uncertainty in mental health policy and planning decisions.

A Dynamic Approach to Economic Priority Setting to Invest in Youth Mental Health and Guide Local Implementation: Economic Protocol for Eight System Dynamics Policy Models

BACKGROUND

Mental illness costs the world economy over US2.5 Bn each year, including premature mortality, morbidity, and productivity losses. Multisector approaches are required to address the systemic drivers of mental health and ensure adequate service provision. There is an important role for economics to support priority setting, identify best value investments and inform optimal implementation. Mental health can be defined as a complex dynamic system where decision makers are challenged to prospectively manage the system over time. This protocol describes the approach to equip eight system dynamics (SD) models across Australia to support priority setting and guide portfolio investment decisions, tailored to local implementation context.

METHODS

As part of a multidisciplinary team, three interlinked protocols are developed; (i) the participatory process to codesign the models with local stakeholders and identify interventions for implementation, (ii) the technical protocol to develop the SD models to simulate the dynamics of the local population, drivers of mental health, the service system and clinical outcomes, and (iii) the economic protocol to detail how the SD models will be equipped to undertake a suite of economic analysis, incorporating health and societal perspectives. Models will estimate the cost of mental illness, inclusive of service costs (health and other sectors, where necessary), quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost, productivity costs and carer costs. To assess the value of investing (disinvesting) in interventions, economic analysis will include return-on-investment, cost-utility, cost benefit, and budget impact to inform affordability. Economic metrics are expected to be dynamic, conditional upon changing population demographics, service system capacities and the mix of interventions when synergetic or antagonistic interactions. To support priority setting, a portfolio approach will identify best value combinations of interventions, relative to a defined budget(s). User friendly dashboards will guide decision makers to use the SD models to inform resource allocation and generate business cases for funding.

DISCUSSION

Equipping SD models to undertake economic analysis is intended to support local priority setting and help optimise implementation regarding the best value mix of investments, timing and scale. The objectives are to improve allocative efficiency, increase mental health and economic productivity.

Regional suicide prevention planning: a dynamic simulation modelling analysis

Background

Regional planning may help to ensure that the specific measures implemented as part of a national suicide prevention strategy are aligned with the varying needs of local services and communities; however, there are concerns that the reliability of local programme development may be limited in practice.

Aims

The potential impacts of independent regional planning on the effectiveness of suicide prevention programmes in the Australian state of New South Wales were quantified using a system dynamics model of mental health services provision and suicidal behaviour in each of the state's ten Primary Health Network (PHN) catchments.

Method

Reductions in projected suicide mortality over the period 2021–2031 were calculated for scenarios in which combinations of four and five suicide prevention and mental health services interventions (selected from 13 possible interventions) are implemented separately in each PHN catchment. State-level impacts were estimated by summing reductions in projected suicide mortality for each intervention combination across PHN catchments.

Results

The most effective state-level combinations of four and five interventions prevent, respectively, 20.3% and 22.9% of 10 312 suicides projected under a business-as-usual scenario (i.e. no new policies or programmes, constant services capacity growth). Projected numbers of suicides under the optimal intervention scenarios for each PHN are up to 6% lower than corresponding numbers of suicides projected for the optimal state-level intervention combinations.

Conclusions

Regional suicide prevention planning may contribute to significant reductions in suicide mortality where local health authorities are provided with the necessary resources and tools to support reliable, evidence-based decision-making.

A practical and ethical toolkit for last-minute refusal of anesthetic in children

Children's fear of a procedure, including the anesthetic, is a common issue that operating theatre staff face. This fear is generally mitigated by preesthetic preparation and information sharing. Last-minute refusal of a procedure creates unique difficulties for the anesthetist and proceduralist. Refusal for a procedure raises issues of whether the dissent is binding, and if not, how best to get the child to theatre without creating moral injury. In this case review of a young adolescent who refuses to go to the operating theatre, we explore practical and ethical options to resolve the situation. We discuss respect for persons (including assent and consent), best interests, truth-telling, harm minimization, and restraint. The importance of a postevent debrief is discussed. We also assess the value of a clinical ethics service with team members embedded in clinical teams.

The Impact of Technology-Enabled Care Coordination in a Complex Mental Health System: A Local System Dynamics Model

Background

Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, major shortcomings in the way mental health care systems were organized were impairing the delivery of effective care. The mental health impacts of the pandemic, the recession, and the resulting social dislocation will depend on the extent to which care systems will become overwhelmed and on the strategic investments made across the system to effectively respond.

Objective

This study aimed to explore the impact of strengthening the mental health system through technology-enabled care coordination on mental health and suicide outcomes.

Methods

A system dynamics model for the regional population catchment of North Coast New South Wales, Australia, was developed that incorporated defined pathways from social determinants of mental health to psychological distress, mental health care, and suicidal behavior. The model reproduced historic time series data across a range of outcomes and was used to evaluate the relative impact of a set of scenarios on attempted suicide (ie, self-harm hospitalizations), suicide deaths, mental health–related emergency department (ED) presentations, and psychological distress over the period from 2021 to 2030. These scenarios include (1) business as usual, (2) increase in service capacity growth rate by 20%, (3) standard telehealth, and (4) technology-enabled care coordination. Each scenario was tested using both pre– and post–COVID-19 social and economic conditions.

Results

Technology-enabled care coordination was forecast to deliver a reduction in self-harm hospitalizations and suicide deaths by 6.71% (95% interval 5.63%-7.87%), mental health–related ED presentations by 10.33% (95% interval 8.58%-12.19%), and the prevalence of high psychological distress by 1.76 percentage points (95% interval 1.35-2.32 percentage points). Scenario testing demonstrated that increasing service capacity growth rate by 20% or standard telehealth had substantially lower impacts. This pattern of results was replicated under post–COVID-19 conditions with technology-enabled care coordination being the only tested scenario, which was forecast to reduce the negative impact of the pandemic on mental health and suicide.

Conclusions

The use of technology-enabled care coordination is likely to improve mental health and suicide outcomes. The substantially lower effectiveness of targeting individual components of the mental health system (ie, increasing service capacity growth rate by 20% or standard telehealth) reiterates that strengthening the whole system has the greatest impact on patient outcomes. Investments into more of the same types of programs and services alone will not be enough to improve outcomes; instead, new models of care and the digital infrastructure to support them and their integration are needed.

Federal and state cooperation necessary but not sufficient for effective regional mental health systems: insights from systems modelling and simulation

For more than a decade, suicide rates in Australia have shown no improvement despite significant investment in reforms to support regionally driven initiatives. Further recommended reforms by the Productivity Commission call for Federal and State and Territory Government funding for mental health to be pooled and new Regional Commissioning Authorities established to take responsibility for efficient and effective allocation of ‘taxpayer money.’ This study explores the sufficiency of this recommendation in preventing ongoing policy resistance. A system dynamics model of pathways between psychological distress, the mental health care system, suicidal behaviour and their drivers was developed, tested, and validated for a large, geographically diverse region of New South Wales; the Hunter New England and Central Coast Primary Health Network (PHN). Multi-objective optimisation was used to explore potential discordance in the best-performing programs and initiatives (simulated from 2021 to 2031) across mental health outcomes between the two state-governed Local Health Districts (LHDs) and the federally governed PHN. Impacts on suicide deaths, mental health-related emergency department presentations, and service disengagement were explored. A combination of family psychoeducation, post-attempt aftercare, and safety planning, and social connectedness programs minimises the number of suicides across the PHN and in the Hunter New England LHD (13.5% reduction; 95% interval, 12.3–14.9%), and performs well in the Central Coast LHD (14.8% reduction, 13.5–16.3%), suggesting that aligned strategic decision making between the PHN and LHDs would deliver substantial impacts on suicide. Results also highlighted a marked trade-off between minimising suicide deaths versus minimising service disengagement. This is explained in part by the additional demand placed on services of intensive suicide prevention programs leading to increases in service disengagement as wait times for specialist community based mental health services and dissatisfaction with quality of care increases. Competing priorities between the PHN and LHDs (each seeking to optimise the different outcomes they are responsible for) can undermine the optimal impact of investments for suicide prevention. Systems modelling provides essential regional decision analysis infrastructure to facilitate coordinated federal and state investments for optimal impacts.

Reducing youth suicide: systems modelling and simulation to guide targeted investments across the determinants

BACKGROUND

Reducing suicidal behaviour (SB) is a critical public health issue globally. The complex interplay of social determinants, service system factors, population demographics, and behavioural dynamics makes it extraordinarily difficult for decision makers to determine the nature and balance of investments required to have the greatest impacts on SB. Real-world experimentation to establish the optimal targeting, timing, scale, frequency, and intensity of investments required across the determinants is unfeasible. Therefore, this study harnesses systems modelling and simulation to guide population-level decision making that represent best strategic allocation of limited resources.

METHODS

Using a participatory approach, and informed by a range of national, state, and local datasets, a system dynamics model was developed, tested, and validated for a regional population catchment. The model incorporated defined pathways from social determinants of mental health to psychological distress, mental health care, and SB. Intervention scenarios were investigated to forecast their impact on SB over a 20-year period.

RESULTS

A combination of social connectedness programs, technology-enabled coordinated care, post-attempt assertive aftercare, reductions in childhood adversity, and increasing youth employment projected the greatest impacts on SB, particularly in a youth population, reducing self-harm hospitalisations (suicide attempts) by 28.5% (95% interval 26.3-30.8%) and suicide deaths by 29.3% (95% interval 27.1-31.5%). Introducing additional interventions beyond the best performing suite of interventions produced only marginal improvement in population level impacts, highlighting that 'more is not necessarily better.'

CONCLUSION

Results indicate that targeted investments in addressing the social determinants and in mental health services provides the best opportunity to reduce SB and suicide. Systems modelling and simulation offers a robust approach to leveraging best available research, data, and expert knowledge in a way that helps decision makers respond to the unique characteristics and drivers of SB in their catchments and more effectively focus limited health resources.

A dynamic modelling analysis of the impact of tobacco control programs on population-level nicotine dependence

According to the 'hardening hypothesis', average nicotine dependence will increase as less dependent smokers quit relatively easily in response to effective public health interventions, so that sustained progress in reducing smoking prevalence will depend on shifting the emphasis of tobacco control programs towards intensive treatment of heavily dependent smokers (who comprise an increasing fraction of continuing smokers). We used a system dynamics model of smoking behaviour to explore the potential for hardening in a population of smokers exposed to effective tobacco control measures over an extended period. Policy-induced increases in the per capita cessation rate are shown to lead inevitably to a decline in the proportion of smokers who are heavily dependent, contrary to the hardening hypothesis. Changes in smoking behaviour in Australia over the period 2001‒2016 resulted in substantial decreases in current smoking prevalence (from 23.1% in 2001 to 14.6% in 2016) and the proportion of heavily dependent smokers in the smoking population (from 52.1% to 36.9%). Public health interventions that have proved particularly effective in reducing smoking prevalence (tobacco tax increases, smoke-free environment legislation, antismoking mass media campaigns) are expected to also contribute to a decline in population-level nicotine dependence.

Which Social, Economic, and Health Sector Strategies Will Deliver the Greatest Impacts for Youth Mental Health and Suicide Prevention? Protocol for an Advanced, Systems Modelling Approach

Background: Current global challenges are generating extensive social disruption and uncertainty that have the potential to undermine the mental health, wellbeing, and futures of young people. The scale and complexity of challenges call for engagement with systems science-based decision analytic tools that can capture the dynamics and interrelationships between physical, social, economic, and health systems, and support effective national and regional responses. At the outset of the pandemic mental health-related systems models were developed for the Australian context, however, the extent to which findings are generalisable across diverse regions remains unknown. This study aims to explore the context dependency of systems modelling insights. Methods: This study will employ a comparative case study design, applying participatory system dynamics modelling across eight diverse regions of Australia to answer three primary research questions: (i) Will current regional differences in key youth mental health outcomes be exacerbated in forward projections due to the social and economic impacts of COVID-19?; (ii) What combination of social policies and health system strengthening initiatives will deliver the greatest impacts within each region?; (iii) To what extent are optimal strategic responses consistent across the diverse regions? We provide a detailed technical blueprint as a potential springboard for more timely construction and deployment of systems models in international contexts to facilitate a broader examination of the question of generalisability and inform investments in the mental health and wellbeing of young people in the post COVID-19 recovery. Discussion: Computer simulation is known as the third pillar of science (after theory and experiment). Simulation allows researchers and decision makers to move beyond what can be manipulated within the scale, time, and ethical limits of the experimental approach. Such learning when achieved collectively, has the potential to enhance regional self-determination, help move beyond incremental adjustments to the status quo, and catalyze transformational change. This research seeks to advance efforts to establish regional decision support infrastructure and empower communities to effectively respond. In addition, this research seeks to move towards an understanding of the extent to which systems modelling insights may be relevant to the global mental health response by encouraging researchers to use, challenge, and advance the existing work for scientific and societal progress.

Policy options for endgame planning in tobacco control: a simulation modelling study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the potential impacts of several tobacco control interventions on adult daily smoking prevalence in the Australian state of Queensland, using a system dynamics model codeveloped with local and national stakeholders.

METHODS

Eight intervention scenarios were simulated and compared with a reference scenario (business as usual), in which all tobacco control measures currently in place are maintained unchanged until the end of the simulation period (31 December 2037).

FINDINGS

Under the business as usual scenario, adult daily smoking prevalence is projected to decline from 11.8% in 2017 to 5.58% in 2037. A sustained 50% increase in antismoking advertising exposure from 2018 reduces projected prevalence in 2037 by 0.80 percentage points. Similar reductions are projected with the introduction of tobacco wholesaler and retailer licensing schemes that either permit or prohibit tobacco sales by alcohol-licensed venues (0.65 and 1.73 percentage points, respectively). Increasing the minimum age of legal supply of tobacco products substantially reduces adolescent initiation, but has minimal impact on smoking prevalence in the adult population over the simulation period. Sustained reductions in antismoking advertising exposure of 50% and 100% from 2018 increase projected adult daily smoking prevalence in 2037 by 0.88 and 1.98 percentage points, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that any prudent approach to endgame planning should seek to build on rather than replace existing tobacco control measures that have proved effective to date. Additional interventions that can promote cessation are expected to be more successful in reducing smoking prevalence than interventions focussing exclusively on preventing initiation.

Asthma in urban Aboriginal children: A cross-sectional study of socio-demographic patterns and associations with pre-natal and current carer smoking

AIM

To describe socio-demographic patterns of asthma prevalence in urban Aboriginal children and quantify associations between asthma prevalence and pre-natal maternal and current carer smoking.

METHODS

Analyses used carer-reported survey data for 1290 urban Aboriginal children aged 2-17 years from the Study of Environment on Aboriginal Resilience and Child Health. Multilevel log-binomial regression was used to estimate asthma prevalence ratios (PRs) for child- and family-level socio-demographic factors, pre-natal maternal smoking and current carer smoking. Smoking-related PRs were compared with general-population estimates derived from meta-analyses of published cross-sectional data.

RESULTS

Overall, 33.9% of children had ever had asthma, and 12.9% had received treatment for asthma in the past month. Prevalence estimates declined with increasing household income and increasing household size (posterior probabilities of decreasing trend >0.98), while children exposed to pre-natal maternal smoking had a higher risk of asthma ever than unexposed children (PR 1.18 (95% credible interval 1.00-1.40)). Recently treated asthma prevalence was not significantly associated with pre-natal maternal (0.98 (0.71-1.41)) or current carer smoking (0.97 (0.68-1.37)); however, there was substantial uncertainty in our PR estimates, and 95% credible intervals contained general-population estimates derived from the meta-analyses (1.37 (1.17-1.65) for pre-natal smoking, 1.28 (1.15-1.44) for current parental or household smoking).

CONCLUSION

Among urban Aboriginal children in the Study of Environment on Aboriginal Resilience and Child Health cohort, asthma prevalence declines as household income and household size increase, while children exposed to pre-natal maternal smoking are at increased risk of ever having asthma. Our results emphasise the importance of reducing smoking in Aboriginal communities, particularly among pregnant women.

Systems modelling and simulation to inform strategic decision making for suicide prevention in rural New South Wales (Australia)

BACKGROUND

The need to understand and respond to the unique characteristics and drivers of suicidal behaviour in rural areas has been enabled through the Australian Government's 2015 mental health reforms facilitating a move to an evidence-based, regional approach to suicide prevention. However, a key challenge has been the complex decision-making environment and lack of appropriate tools to facilitate the use of evidence, data and expert knowledge in a way that can inform contextually appropriate strategies that will deliver the greatest impact. This paper reports the co-development of an advanced decision support tool that enables regional decision makers to explore the likely impacts of their decisions before implementing them in the real world.

METHODS

A system dynamics model for the rural and remote population catchment of Western New South Wales was developed. The model was based on defined pathways to mental health care and suicidal behaviour and reproduced historic trends in the incidence of attempted suicide (self-harm hospitalisations) and suicide deaths in the region. A series of intervention scenarios were investigated to forecast their impact on suicidal behaviour over a 10-year period.

RESULTS

Post-suicide attempt assertive aftercare was forecast to deliver the greatest impact, reducing the numbers of self-harm hospitalisations and suicide deaths by 5.65% (95% interval, 4.87-6.42%) and 5.45% (4.68-6.22%), respectively. Reductions were also projected for community support programs (self-harm hospitalisations: 2.83%, 95% interval 2.23-3.46%; suicide deaths: 4.38%, 95% interval 3.78-5.00%). Some scenarios produced unintuitive impacts or effect sizes that were significantly lower than what has been anticipated under the traditional evidence-based approach to suicide prevention and provide an opportunity for learning.

CONCLUSION

Systems modelling and simulation offers significant potential for regional decision makers to better understand and respond to the unique characteristics and drivers of suicidal behaviour in their catchments and more effectively allocate limited health resources.

Bringing new tools, a regional focus, resource-sensitivity, local engagement and necessary discipline to mental health policy and planning

Background

While reducing the burden of mental and substance use disorders is a global challenge, it is played out locally. Mental disorders have early ages of onset, syndromal complexity and high individual variability in course and response to treatment. As most locally-delivered health systems do not account for this complexity in their design, implementation, scale or evaluation they often result in disappointing impacts.

Discussion

In this viewpoint, we contend that the absence of an appropriate predictive planning framework is one critical reason that countries fail to make substantial progress in mental health outcomes. Addressing this missing infrastructure is vital to guide and coordinate national and regional (local) investments, to ensure limited mental health resources are put to best use, and to strengthen health systems to achieve the mental health targets of the 2015 Sustainable Development Goals.

Most broad national policies over-emphasize provision of single elements of care (e.g. medicines, individual psychological therapies) and assess their population-level impact through static, linear and program logic-based evaluation. More sophisticated decision analytic approaches that can account for complexity have long been successfully used in non-health sectors and are now emerging in mental health research and practice. We argue that utilization of advanced decision support tools such as systems modelling and simulation, is now required to bring a necessary discipline to new national and local investments in transforming mental health systems.

Conclusion

Systems modelling and simulation delivers an interactive decision analytic tool to test mental health reform and service planning scenarios in a safe environment before implementing them in the real world. The approach drives better decision-making and can inform the scale up of effective and contextually relevant strategies to reduce the burden of mental disorder and enhance the mental wealth of nations.

The Impact of Reducing Psychiatric Beds on Suicide Rates

There has been ongoing debate regarding the impact of reductions in psychiatric beds on suicide rates, and the potential effect of reallocation of acute hospital funding to community-based mental health programs and services. Computer simulation offers significant value in advancing such debate by providing a robust platform for exploring strategic resource allocation scenarios before they are implemented in the real world. We report an application that demonstrates a threshold effect of cuts to psychiatric beds on suicide rates and the role of context specific variations in population, behavioral, and service use dynamics in determining where that threshold lies. Findings have important implications for regional decision-making regarding resource allocation for suicide prevention.

Mental health-related emergency department presentations and hospital admissions in a cohort of urban Aboriginal children and adolescents in New South Wales, Australia: findings from SEARCH

OBJECTIVES

The aim of the current study is to quantify mental health-related emergency department (ED) presentations and hospitalisations, and associated child and family characteristics, in children recruited through four Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Organisations.

SETTING

Four Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Services that deliver primary care. All services were located in urban or large regional centres in New South Wales, Australia.

PARTICIPANTS

1476 Aboriginal children aged 0-17 years at recruitment to the Study of Environment on Aboriginal Resilience and Child Health.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

ED presentations and hospital admissions with a primary mental health diagnosis obtained via linkage to population health datasets.

RESULTS

Over a median of 6-year follow-up, there were 96 ED presentations affecting 62 children (10.7/1000 person-years) and 49 hospitalisations affecting 34 children (5.5/1000 person-years) for mental health conditions. Presentations/admissions increased with age. ED presentation was increased with: living in foster versus parental care (adjusted rate ratio (RR)=3.97, 95% CrI 1.26 to 11.80); high versus low baseline child emotional/behavioural problems (adjusted RR=2.93, 95% CrI 1.50 to 6.10); and caregiver chronic health conditions versus none (adjusted RR=2.81, 95% CrI 1.31 to 6.63). Hospitalisations were significantly increased with caregiver unemployment versus home duties (adjusted RR=4.48, 95% CrI 1.26 to 17.94) and caregiver chronic health problems versus none (adjusted RR=3.83, 95% CrI 1.33 to 12.12).

CONCLUSIONS

Tertiary care for mental health issues was relatively common among participating Aboriginal children, with risk elevated for those living in foster care, with prior mental health and behavioural problems and with carers with chronic illness and/or unemployment. While this study suggests high rates of serious mental health events among children from participating communities, the optimum means for reducing these rates, and the need for tertiary care, has not yet been determined. Such information is urgently required to inform policy and programmes to support Aboriginal child and adolescent mental health.

Housing conditions associated with recurrent gastrointestinal infection in urban Aboriginal children in NSW, Australia: findings from SEARCH

OBJECTIVE

To examine the associations between housing and gastrointestinal infection in Aboriginal children in urban New South Wales.

METHODS

A total of 1,398 Aboriginal children were recruited through four Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Services. Multilevel regression modelling of survey data estimated associations between housing conditions and recurrent gastrointestinal infection, adjusting for sociodemographic and health factors.

RESULTS

Of the sample, 157 children (11%) had recurrent gastrointestinal infection ever and 37 (2.7%) required treatment for recurrent gastrointestinal infection in the past month. Children in homes with 3+ housing problems were 2.51 (95% CrI 1.10, 2.49) times as likely to have recurrent gastrointestinal infection ever and 6.79 (95% CrI 2.11, 30.17) times as likely to have received recent treatment for it (versus 0-2 problems). For every additional housing problem, the prevalence of recurrent gastrointestinal infection ever increased by a factor of 1.28 (95% CrI 1.14, 1.47) and the prevalence of receiving treatment for gastrointestinal infection in the past month increased by a factor of 1.64 (95% CrI 1.20, 2.48).

CONCLUSIONS

Housing problems were independently associated with recurrent gastrointestinal infection in a dose-dependent manner. Implications for public health: The role of housing as a potential determinant of health in urban Aboriginal children merits further attention in research and policy settings.

Through babies' eyes: Practical and theoretical considerations of using wearable technology to measure parent-infant behaviour from the mothers' and infants' view points

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Ecologically valid measurement of mother–infant behaviour is difficult.

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Observations often rely on short snapshots with a researcher present.

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Wearable cameras can be worn by mothers and infants alone at home.

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Home interactions were compared with an observation with a researcher.

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More negative maternal behaviour was recorded using ‘headcams’ alone.

Aims

To explore the utility of first-person viewpoint cameras at home, for recording mother and infant behaviour, and for reducing problems associated with participant reactivity, which represent a fundamental bias in observational research.

Methods

We compared footage recording the same play interactions from a traditional third-person point of view (3rd PC) and using cameras worn on headbands (first-person cameras [1st PCs]) to record first-person points of view of mother and infant simultaneously. In addition, we left the dyads alone with the 1st PCs for a number of days to record natural mother–child behaviour at home. Fifteen mothers with infants (3–12 months of age) provided a total of 14 h of footage at home alone with the 1st PCs.

Results

Codings of maternal behaviour from footage of the same scenario captured from 1st PCs and 3rd PCs showed high concordance (kappa >0.8). Footage captured by the 1st PCs also showed strong inter-rater reliability (kappa = 0.9). Data from 1st PCs during sessions recorded alone at home captured more ‘negative’ maternal behaviours per min than observations using 1st PCs whilst a researcher was present (mean difference = 0.90 (95% CI 0.5–1.2, p < 0.001 representing 1.5 SDs).

Conclusion

1st PCs offer a number of practical advantages and can reliably record maternal and infant behaviour. This approach can also record a higher frequency of less socially desirable maternal behaviours. It is unclear whether this difference is due to lack of need of the presence of researcher or the increased duration of recordings. This finding is potentially important for research questions aiming to capture more ecologically valid behaviours and reduce demand characteristics.

Access to Subsidized Smoking Cessation Medications by Australian Smokers Aged 45 Years and Older: A Population-Based Cohort Study

Introduction

The principal aim of this study was to assess the accessibility of subsidized cessation medications to socioeconomically disadvantaged smokers, including smokers living in regional and remote communities.

Methods

Analyses used baseline questionnaire and linked Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme data for 18 686 regular smokers participating in the 45 and Up Study, a large-scale Australian cohort study of people aged 45 years and older. Participants who were dispensed nicotine replacement therapy, varenicline, or bupropion were identified from the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme data, which provide an essentially complete record of participants' access to subsidized pharmaceuticals. Associations between the supply of each pharmacotherapy and a range of sociodemographic and health-related variables were evaluated using multiple logistic regression.

Results

The odds that participants were supplied with a cessation medication declined markedly with increasing age for participants older than 60 years and were substantially higher for participants who smoked 20 or more cigarettes/day than for participants who smoked fewer than 10 cigarettes/day. Participants with no formal qualification and those residing in socioeconomically disadvantaged areas had higher odds of receiving nicotine replacement therapy or varenicline than university-educated participants and participants living in the least disadvantaged areas. There was no evidence that participants residing in regional and remote communities had lower odds of receiving a cessation medication than participants residing in major cities.

Conclusions

Older Australian smokers' access to cessation pharmacotherapies is determined predominantly by age and daily cigarette consumption and does not appear to be limited by educational achievement, socioeconomic disadvantage, or remoteness.

Implications

Promoting the use of cessation medications is a principal measure proposed to achieve Australia's National Tobacco Strategy 2012-2018 goal of reducing cigarette consumption among socioeconomically disadvantaged smokers. The results of this large-scale cohort study indicate that access to cessation pharmacotherapies is determined primarily by age and daily cigarette consumption, and is not limited by socioeconomic circumstances, providing some reassurance that existing government subsidies are sufficient to ensure that pharmaceutical aids are accessible to all Australian smokers.

Scoping Review on Maternal Health among Immigrant and Refugee Women in Canada: Prenatal, Intrapartum, and Postnatal Care

The last fifteen years have seen a dramatic increase in both the childbearing age and diversity of women migrating to Canada. The resulting health impact underscores the need to explore access to health services and the related maternal health outcome. This article reports on the results of a scoping review focused on migrant maternal health within the context of accessible and effective health services during pregnancy and following delivery. One hundred and twenty-six articles published between 2000 and 2016 that met our inclusion criteria and related to this group of migrant women, with pregnancy/motherhood status, who were living in Canada, were identified. This review points at complex health outcomes among immigrant and refugee women that occur within the compelling gaps in our knowledge of maternal health during all phases of maternity. Throughout the prenatal, intrapartum, and postnatal periods of maternity, barriers to accessing healthcare services were found to disadvantage immigrant and refugee women putting them at risk for challenging maternal health outcomes. Interactions between the uptake of health information and factors related to the process of immigrant settlement were identified as major barriers. Availability of appropriate services in a country that provides universal healthcare is discussed.

Texture analysis of periventricular echogenicity on neonatal cranial ultrasound predicts periventricular leukomalacia

BACKGROUND

White matter periventricular echogenicity detected in neonatal cranial ultrasound (US) scans may be followed by cystic periventricular leukomalacia (PVL) or might resolve. Serial US are therefore needed to clarify the outcome. Texture analysis is a computerized method to analyze images and distinguish findings that are undetectable by the human eye.

OBJECTIVE

To test whether texture analysis can differentiate echogenicities that resolve from those that develop cystic PVL.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Neonates with echogenicities on their initial US scan were studied; texture analysis was performed on the coronal and sagittal sections. Texture parameters were entered into a linear discriminant analysis (LDA) to classify the scans along two axes called most discriminant features (MDF) 1 and 2.

RESULTS

We studied twenty infants with periventricular echogenicities on initial scans; ten of them later resolved (group A), while the other ten infants developed cystic PVL (group B). The classification accuracy was 66% and 82% for group A and B on sagittal sections, and 75%, and 80% on coronal. In the coronal and sagittal plane respectively, a MDF1 value of 0.98 and 0.24 and an MDF2 value of 0.86 and 0.001 provided the best sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratio.

CONCLUSION

Texture analysis is a promising objective tool to early identify which cranial echogenicity that will develop into cystic PVL.