Measuring effects of ivermectin-treated cattle on potential malaria vectors in Vietnam: A cluster-randomized trial

BACKGROUND

Malaria elimination using current tools has stalled in many areas. Ivermectin (IVM) is a broad-antiparasitic drug and mosquitocide and has been proposed as a tool for accelerating progress towards malaria elimination. Under laboratory conditions, IVM has been shown to reduce the survival of adult Anopheles populations that have fed on IVM-treated mammals. Treating cattle with IVM has been proposed as an important contribution to malaria vector management, however, the impacts of IVM in this One Health use case have been untested in field trials in Southeast Asia.

METHODS

Through a randomized village-based trial, this study quantified the effect of IVM-treated cattle on anopheline populations in treated vs. untreated villages in Central Vietnam. Local zebu cattle in six rural villages were included in this study. In three villages, cattle were treated with IVM at established veterinary dosages, and in three additional villages cattle were left as untreated controls. For the main study outcome, the mosquito populations in all villages were sampled using cattle-baited traps for six nights before, and six nights after a 2-day IVM-administration (intervention) period. Anopheline species were characterized using taxonomic keys. The impact of the intervention was analyzed using a difference-in-differences (DID) approach with generalized estimating equations (with negative binomial distribution and robust errors). This intervention was powered to detect a 50% reduction in total nightly Anopheles spp. vector catches from cattle-baited traps. Given the unusual diversity in anopheline populations, exploratory analyses examined taxon-level differences in the ecological population diversity.

RESULTS

Across the treated villages, 1,112 of 1,523 censused cows (73% overall; range 67% to 83%) were treated with IVM. In both control and treated villages, there was a 30% to 40% decrease in total anophelines captured in the post-intervention period as compared to the pre-intervention period. In the control villages, there were 1,873 captured pre-intervention and 1,079 captured during the post-intervention period. In the treated villages, there were 1,594 captured pre-intervention, and 1,101 captured during the post-intervention period. The difference in differences model analysis comparing total captures between arms was not statistically significant (p = 0.61). Secondary outcomes of vector population diversity found that in three villages (one control and two treatment) Brillouin's index increased, and in three villages (two control and one treatment) Brillouin's index decreased. When examining biodiversity by trapping-night, there were no clear trends in treated or untreated vector populations. Additionally, there were no clear trends when examining the components of biodiversity: richness and evenness.

CONCLUSIONS

The ability of this study to quantify the impacts of IVM treatment was limited due to unexpectedly large spatiotemporal variability in trapping rates; an area-wide decrease in trapping counts across all six villages post-intervention; and potential spillover effects. However, this study provides important data to directly inform future studies in the GMS and beyond for IVM-based vector control.

Syndromic surveillance of population-level COVID-19 burden with cough monitoring in a hospital emergency waiting room

Syndromic surveillance is an effective tool for enabling the timely detection of infectious disease outbreaks and facilitating the implementation of effective mitigation strategies by public health authorities. While various information sources are currently utilized to collect syndromic signal data for analysis, the aggregated measurement of cough, an important symptom for many illnesses, is not widely employed as a syndromic signal. With recent advancements in ubiquitous sensing technologies, it becomes feasible to continuously measure population-level cough incidence in a contactless, unobtrusive, and automated manner. In this work, we demonstrate the utility of monitoring aggregated cough count as a syndromic indicator to estimate COVID-19 cases. In our study, we deployed a sensor-based platform (Syndromic Logger) in the emergency room of a large hospital. The platform captured syndromic signals from audio, thermal imaging, and radar, while the ground truth data were collected from the hospital's electronic health record. Our analysis revealed a significant correlation between the aggregated cough count and positive COVID-19 cases in the hospital (Pearson correlation of 0.40, p-value < 0.001). Notably, this correlation was higher than that observed with the number of individuals presenting with fever (ρ = 0.22, p = 0.04), a widely used syndromic signal and screening tool for such diseases. Furthermore, we demonstrate how the data obtained from our Syndromic Logger platform could be leveraged to estimate various COVID-19-related statistics using multiple modeling approaches. Aggregated cough counts and other data, such as people density collected from our platform, can be utilized to predict COVID-19 patient visits related metrics in a hospital waiting room, and SHAP and Gini feature importance-based metrics showed cough count as the important feature for these prediction models. Furthermore, we have shown that predictions based on cough counting outperform models based on fever detection (e.g., temperatures over 39°C), which require more intrusive engagement with the population. Our findings highlight that incorporating cough-counting based signals into syndromic surveillance systems can significantly enhance overall resilience against future public health challenges, such as emerging disease outbreaks or pandemics.

Knowledge, attitudes, and practices regarding COVID-19 among university students and employees in Massachusetts, USA: A qualitative study

OBJECTIVE

To explore the knowledge, attitudes, and practices regarding COVID-19 in university affiliates to inform future COVID-19 policies and practices.

PARTICIPANTS

Undergraduate students, graduate students and university employees at a large public university.

METHODS

Semi-structured focus groups and interviews were conducted between December 2020 and January 2021. Data were analyzed via inductive thematic analysis.

RESULTS

Analysis of data from the 36 participants generated five themes: COVID-19 knowledge, stress and coping, trust, decision-making, and institutional feedback. Misunderstanding of COVID-19 preventive behaviors was common, which appeared to compound high levels of stress and presented an educational opportunity. University investment in an asymptomatic testing program was reported to increase perceived safety.

CONCLUSIONS

Participants' experiences with a large university's COVID-19 response suggest a desire for consistent and transparent communication and an opportunity for institutions to examine the effectiveness of their communication strategies, public health protocols, and mechanisms for assessing and mitigating stress.

Passive Monitoring of Crowd-Level Cough Counts in Waiting Areas produces Reliable Syndromic Indicator for Total COVID-19 Burden in a Hospital Emergency Clinic

Syndromic surveillance is an effective tool for enabling the timely detection of infectious disease outbreaks and facilitating the implementation of effective mitigation strategies by public health authorities. While various information sources are currently utilized to collect syndromic signal data for analysis, the aggregated measurement of cough, an important symptom for many illnesses, is not widely employed as a syndromic signal. With recent advancements in ubiquitous sensing technologies, it becomes feasible to continuously measure population-level cough incidence in a contactless, unobtrusive, and automated manner. In this work, we demonstrate the utility of monitoring aggregated cough count as a syndromic indicator to estimate COVID-19 cases. In our study, we deployed a sensor-based platform (Syndromic Logger) in the emergency room of a large hospital. The platform captured syndromic signals from audio, thermal imaging, and radar, while the ground truth data were collected from the hospital's electronic health record. Our analysis revealed a significant correlation between the aggregated cough count and positive COVID-19 cases in the hospital (Pearson correlation of 0.40, p-value < 0.001). Notably, this correlation was higher than that observed with the number of individuals presenting with fever (ρ = 0.22, p = 0.04), a widely used syndromic signal and screening tool for such diseases. Furthermore, we demonstrate how the data obtained from our Syndromic Logger platform could be leveraged to estimate various COVID-19-related statistics using multiple modeling approaches. Our findings highlight the efficacy of aggregated cough count as a valuable syndromic indicator associated with the occurrence of COVID-19 cases. Incorporating this signal into syndromic surveillance systems for such diseases can significantly enhance overall resilience against future public health challenges, such as emerging disease outbreaks or pandemics.

Optimizing the implementation of a participant-collected, mail-based SARS-CoV-2 serological survey in university-affiliated populations: lessons learned and practical guidance

The rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2 is largely driven by pre-symptomatic or mildly symptomatic individuals transmitting the virus. Serological tests to identify antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 are important tools to characterize subclinical infection exposure.

During the summer of 2020, a mail-based serological survey with self-collected dried blood spot (DBS) samples was implemented among university affiliates and their household members in Massachusetts, USA. Described are challenges faced and novel procedures used during the implementation of this study to assess the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies amid the pandemic.

Important challenges included user-friendly remote and contact-minimized participant recruitment, limited availability of some commodities and laboratory capacity, a potentially biased sample population, and policy changes impacting the distribution of clinical results to study participants. Methods and lessons learned to surmount these challenges are presented to inform design and implementation of similar sero-studies.

This study design highlights the feasibility and acceptability of self-collected bio-samples and has broad applicability for other serological surveys for a range of pathogens. Key lessons relate to DBS sampling, supply requirements, the logistics of packing and shipping packages, data linkages to enrolled household members, and the utility of having an on-call nurse available for participant concerns during sample collection. Future research might consider additional recruitment techniques such as conducting studies during academic semesters when recruiting in a university setting, partnerships with supply and shipping specialists, and using a stratified sampling approach to minimize potential biases in recruitment.

Quantifying the Relationship between SARS-CoV-2 Wastewater Concentrations and Building-Level COVID-19 Prevalence at an Isolation Residence: A Passive Sampling Approach

SARS-CoV-2 RNA loads can be detected in the excreta of individuals with COVID-19 and have demonstrated positive correlations with clinical infection trends. Consequently, wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) approaches have been implemented globally as a public health surveillance tool to monitor community-level prevalence of infections. The majority of wastewater specimens are gathered as either composite samples via automatic samplers (autosamplers) or grab samples. However, autosamplers are expensive and can be challenging to maintain in cold weather, while grab samples are particularly susceptible to temporal variation when sampling sewage directly from complex matrices outside residential buildings. Passive sampling can provide an affordable, practical, and scalable sampling system while maintaining a reproducible SARS-CoV-2 signal. In this regard, we deployed tampons as passive samplers outside of a COVID-19 isolation unit (a segregated residence hall) at a university campus from 1 February 2021-21 May 2021. Samples (n = 64) were collected 3-5 times weekly and remained within the sewer for a median duration of 24 h. SARS-CoV-2 RNA was quantified using reverse-transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) targeting the N1 and N2 gene fragments. We quantified the mean viral load captured per individual and the association between the daily viral load and total persons, adjusting for covariates using multivariable models to provide a baseline estimate of viral shedding. Samples were processed through two distinct laboratory pipelines on campus, yielding highly correlated N2 concentrations. Data obtained here highlight the success of passive sampling utilizing tampons to capture SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater coming from a COVID-19 isolation residence, indicating that this method can help inform building-level public health responses.

Quantifying the relationship between SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentrations and building-level COVID-19 prevalence at an isolation residence using a passive sampling approach

SARS-CoV-2 RNA can be detected in the excreta of individuals with COVID-19 and has demonstrated a positive correlation with various clinical parameters. Consequently, wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) approaches have been implemented globally as a public health surveillance tool to monitor the community-level prevalence of infections. Over 270 higher education campuses monitor wastewater for SARS-CoV-2, with most gathering either composite samples via automatic samplers (autosamplers) or grab samples. However, autosamplers are expensive and challenging to manage with seasonal variability, while grab samples are particularly susceptible to temporal variation when sampling sewage directly from complex matrices outside residential buildings. Prior studies have demonstrated encouraging results utilizing passive sampling swabs. Such methods can offer affordable, practical, and scalable alternatives to traditional methods while maintaining a reproducible SARS-CoV-2 signal. In this regard, we deployed tampons as passive samplers outside of a COVID-19 isolation unit (a segregated residence hall) at a university campus from February 1, 2021 â€" May 21, 2021. Samples were collected several times weekly and remained within the sewer for a minimum of 24 hours (n = 64). SARS-CoV-2 RNA was quantified using reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) targeting the viral N1 and N2 gene fragments. We quantified the mean viral load captured per individual and the association between the daily viral load and total persons, adjusting for covariates using multivariable models to provide a baseline estimate of viral shedding. Samples were processed through two distinct laboratory pipelines on campus, yielding highly correlated N2 concentrations. Data obtained here highlight the success of passive sampling utilizing tampons to capture SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater coming from a COVID-19 isolation residence, indicating that this method can help inform public health responses in a range of settings.

HIGHLIGHTS

Daily SARS-CoV-2 RNA loads in building-level wastewater were positively associated with the total number of COVID-19 positive individuals in the residenceThe variation in individual fecal shedding rates of SARS-CoV-2 extended four orders of magnitudeWastewater sample replicates were highly correlated using distinct processing pipelines in two independent laboratoriesWhile the isolation residence was occupied, SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detected in all passive samples.

Considerations for Meeting Students' Mental Health Needs at a U.S. University During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Qualitative Study

Objective

To better understand the potential ongoing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on U.S. university students' mental health and to generate hypotheses as to how universities may best meet students' mental health needs.

Participants

Students at a large public university in the United States.

Methods

Students were invited via email to participate in either interviews or focus groups regarding their COVID-19 pandemic experiences, including mental health impacts. Recruitment took place in two waves. Sessions were led by student members of the research team and took place via video conference between December 2020 and June 2021. Interviews were audio-recorded and transcribed via Zoom and manually edited and de-identified by the research team. Interview data were analyzed deductively and inductively using a modified grounded theory approach.

Results

A total of 40 undergraduate and graduate students took part in the study. Major themes included: (1) Overall impact of the pandemic on mental health; (2) Sources of pandemic stress/mental health impacts; (3) Subsequent coping strategies; and (4) Suggestions for improving university support for student mental health. Subthemes were identified within each major theme. Students reported substantial anxiety and other mental health impacts and felt improvements in communication and access to mental health resources could better support students.

Conclusions

This study provides context for the ways in which the COVID-19 pandemic may be continuing to impact mental health in a north-American university setting and identifies suggestions for potential interventions that future studies may test for effectiveness.

Civilian-military malaria outbreak response in Thailand: an example of multi-stakeholder engagement for malaria elimination

BACKGROUND

In April 2017, the Thai Ministry of Public Health (MoPH) was alerted to a potential malaria outbreak among civilians and military personnel in Sisaket Province, a highly forested area bordering Cambodia. The objective of this study was to present findings from the joint civilian-military outbreak response.

METHODS

A mixed-methods approach was used to assess risk factors among cases reported during the 2017 Sisaket malaria outbreak. Routine malaria surveillance data from January 2013 to March 2018 obtained from public and military medical reporting systems and key informant interviews (KIIs) (n = 72) were used to develop hypotheses about potential factors contributing to the outbreak. Joint civilian-military response activities included entomological surveys, mass screen and treat (MSAT) and vector control campaigns, and scale-up of the "1-3-7" reactive case detection approach among civilians alongside a pilot "1-3-7" study conducted by the Royal Thai Army (RTA).

RESULTS

Between May-July 2017, the monthly number of MoPH-reported cases surpassed the epidemic threshold. Outbreak cases detected through the MoPH mainly consisted of Thai males (87%), working as rubber tappers (62%) or military/border police (15%), and Plasmodium vivax infections (73%). Compared to cases from the previous year (May-July 2016), outbreak cases were more likely to be rubber tappers (OR = 14.89 [95% CI: 5.79-38.29]; p < 0.001) and infected with P. vivax (OR=2.32 [1.27-4.22]; p = 0.006). Themes from KIIs were congruent with findings from routine surveillance data. Though limited risk factor information was available from military cases, findings from RTA's "1-3-7" study indicated transmission was likely occurring outside military bases. Data from entomological surveys and MSAT campaigns support this hypothesis, as vectors were mostly exophagic and parasite prevalence from MSAT campaigns was very low (range: 0-0.7% by PCR/microscopy).

CONCLUSIONS

In 2017, an outbreak of mainly P. vivax occurred in Sisaket Province, affecting mainly military and rubber tappers. Vector control use was limited to the home/military barracks, indicating that additional interventions were needed during high-risk forest travel periods. Importantly, this outbreak catalyzed joint civilian-military collaborations and integration of the RTA into the national malaria elimination strategy (NMES). The Sisaket outbreak response serves as an example of how civilian and military public health systems can collaborate to advance national malaria elimination goals in Southeast Asia and beyond.

Prevalence of glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency (G6PDd), CareStart qualitative rapid diagnostic test performance, and genetic variants in two malaria-endemic areas in Sudan

Glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency (G6PDd) is the most common enzymopathy globally, and deficient individuals may experience severe hemolysis following treatment with 8-aminoquinolines. With increasing evidence of Plasmodium vivax infections throughout sub-Saharan Africa, there is a pressing need for population-level data at on the prevalence of G6PDd. Such evidence-based data will guide the expansion of primaquine and potentially tafenoquine for radical cure of P. vivax infections. This study aimed to quantify G6PDd prevalence in two geographically distinct areas in Sudan, and evaluating the performance of a qualitative CareStart rapid diagnostic test as a point-of-care test. Blood samples were analyzed from 491 unrelated healthy persons in two malaria-endemic sites in eastern and central Sudan. A pre-structured questionnaire was used which included demographic data, risk factors and treatment history. G6PD levels were measured using spectrophotometry (SPINREACT) and first-generation qualitative CareStart rapid tests. G6PD variants (202 G>A; 376 A>G) were determined by PCR/RFLP, with a subset confirmed by Sanger sequencing. The prevalence of G6PDd by spectrophotometry was 5.5% (27/491; at 30% of adjusted male median, AMM); 27.3% (134/491; at 70% of AMM); and 13.1% (64/490) by qualitative CareStart rapid diagnostic test. The first-generation CareStart rapid diagnostic test had an overall sensitivity of 81.5% (95%CI: 61.9 to 93.7) and negative predictive value of 98.8% (97.3 to 99.6). All persons genotyped across both study sites were wild type for the G6PD G202 variant. For G6PD A376G all participants in New Halfa had wild type AA (100%), while in Khartoum the AA polymorphism was found in 90.7%; AG in 2.5%; and GG in 6.8%. Phenotypic G6PD B was detected in 100% of tested participants in New Halfa while in Khartoum, the phenotypes observed were B (96.2%), A (2.8%), and AB (1%). The African A- phenotype was not detected in this study population. Overall, G6PDd prevalence in Sudan is low-to-moderate but highly heterogeneous. Point-of-care testing with the qualitative CareStart rapid diagnostic test demonstrated moderate performance with moderate sensitivity and specificity but high negative predicative value. The two sites harbored primarily the African B phenotype. A country-wide survey is recommended to understand GP6PD deficiencies more comprehensively in Sudan.

Malaria is caused by five species of parasites; of these Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax cause the majority of global morbidity and mortality. Plasmodium vivax infection is an emerging public health problem in sub-Saharan Africa, including Sudan. Primaquine and other 8-aminoquinolines including tafenoquine are the primary treatments to target the silent liver stage (hypnozoites) in P. vivax infections. However, these regimens can cause severe intravascular hemolysis in patients suffering from glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency (G6PDd). To support safe and efficacious use of primaquine, and potentially tafenoquine in Sudan, this study aimed to estimate the prevalence of G6PDd across two sites in Sudan using spectrophotometry and a qualitative CareStart rapid diagnostic test. Subsequent genetic analysis by PCR/RFLP and sequencing of G6PD genetic variants was performed. This survey found an overall prevalence was 5.5% (27/491; 30% of adjusted male median, AMM), and 27.3% (134/491; 70% of AMM) and 13.1% (64/490) by qualitative CareStart rapid diagnostic test. Important differences in distribution of genetic variants of G6PD were found across the two sites, and the African A- was not observed. In univariate analysis a few parameters showed significant association with G6PD deficiency. In conclusion the prevalence of G6PDd was low to moderate but heterogonous, and the first-generation qualitative CareStart rapid diagnostic test showed moderate performance in both males and females.

Serological surveys to estimate cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in adults (Sero-MAss study), Massachusetts, July-August 2020: a mail-based cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG and IgM among Massachusetts residents and to better understand asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 transmission during the summer of 2020.

DESIGN

Mail-based cross-sectional survey.

SETTING

Massachusetts, USA.

PARTICIPANTS

Primary sampling group: sample of undergraduate students at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst (n=548) and a member of their household (n=231).Secondary sampling group: sample of graduate students, faculty, librarians and staff (n=214) and one member of their household (n=78). All participants were residents of Massachusetts without prior COVID-19 diagnosis.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity. Association of seroprevalence with variables including age, gender, race, geographic region, occupation and symptoms.

RESULTS

Approximately 27 000 persons were invited via email to assess eligibility. 1001 households were mailed dried blood spot sample kits, 762 returned blood samples for analysis. In the primary sample group, 36 individuals (4.6%) had IgG antibodies detected for an estimated weighted prevalence in this population of 5.3% (95% CI: 3.5 to 8.0). In the secondary sampling group, 10 participants (3.4%) had IgG antibodies detected for an estimated adjusted prevalence of 4.0% (95% CI: 2.2 to 7.4). No samples were IgM positive. No association was found in either group between seropositivity and self-reported work duties or customer-facing hours. In the primary sampling group, self-reported febrile illness since February 2020, male sex and minority race (Black or American Indian/Alaskan Native) were associated with seropositivity. No factors except geographic regions within the state were associated with evidence of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection in the secondary sampling group.

CONCLUSIONS

This study fills a critical gap in estimating the levels of subclinical and asymptomatic infection. Estimates can be used to calibrate models estimating levels of population immunity over time, and these data are critical for informing public health interventions and policy.

Serological surveys to estimate cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in adults (Sero-MAss study), Massachusetts, July-August 2020: a mail-based cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is an unprecedented global health crisis. The state of Massachusetts was especially impacted during the initial stages; however, the extent of asymptomatic transmission remains poorly understood due to limited asymptomatic testing in the "first wave." To address this gap, a geographically representative and contact-free seroprevalence survey was conducted in July-August 2020, to estimate prior undetected SARS-CoV-2 infections.

METHODS

Students, faculty, librarians and staff members at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst without a previous COVID-19 diagnosis were invited to participate in this study along with one member of their household in June 2020. Two separate sampling frames were generated from administrative lists: all undergraduates and their household members (primary sampling group) were randomly selected with probability proportional to population size. All staff, faculty, graduate students and librarians (secondary sampling group) were selected as a simple random sample. After informed consent and a socio-behavioral survey, participants were mailed test kits and asked to return self-collected dried blood spot (DBS) samples. Samples were analyzed via ELISA for anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies, and then IgM antibodies if IgG-positive. Seroprevalence estimates were adjusted for survey non-response. Binomial models were used to assess factors associated with seropositivity in both sample groups separately.

RESULTS

Approximately 27,000 persons were invited via email to assess eligibility. Of the 1,001 individuals invited to participate in the study, 762 (76%) returned blood samples for analysis. In the primary sampling group 548 returned samples, of which 230 enrolled a household member. Within the secondary sampling group of 214 individuals, 79 enrolled a household member. In the primary sample group, 36 (4.6%) had IgG antibodies detected for an estimated weighed prevalence for this population of 5.3% (95% CI: 3.5 to 8.0). In the secondary sampling group, 10 (3.4%) of 292 individuals had IgG antibodies detected for an estimated adjusted prevalence of 4.0% (95% CI: 2.2 to 7.4). No samples were IgM positive. No association was found in either sample group between seropositivity and self-reported work duties or customer-facing hours. In the primary sampling group, self-reported febrile illness since Feb 2020, male sex, and minority race (Black or American Indian/Alaskan Native) were associated with seropositivity. No factors except geographic regions within the state were associated with evidence of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection in the secondary sampling group.

INTERPRETATION

This study provides insight into the seroprevalence of university-related populations and their household members across the state of Massachusetts during the summer of 2020 of the pandemic and helps to fill a critical gap in estimating the levels of sub-clinical and asymptomatic infection. Estimates like these can be used to calibrate models that estimate levels of population immunity over time to inform public health interventions and policy.

Ivermectin Treatment for Cattle Reduced the Survival of Two Malaria Vectors, Anopheles dirus and Anopheles epiroticus, Under Laboratory Conditions in Central Vietnam

Ivermectin is a low-cost and nontoxic mosquitocide that may have a role in malaria elimination. However, the extent to which this drug impacts the mortality of Anopheles dirus and Anopheles epiroticus, two important malaria vectors in Southeast Asia, is unknown. This study compared and quantified anopheline mortality after feeding on ivermectin-treated cattle and control cattle in Vietnam. Local anopheline colonies fed on cattle 1 to 3, 6 to 8, 13 to 15, 20 to 22, and 28 to 30 days after injection (DAI) with ivermectin (intervention) or saline (control). An. dirus that fed on ivermectin-treated cattle had higher mortality rates than controls for up to 20 DAI (P < 0.05); An. epiroticus that fed on ivermectin-treated cattle had consistently higher mortality rates than controls for up to 8 DAI (P < 0.05). Feeding on ivermectin-treated cattle increased the mortality rate of these vector species for biologically relevant time periods. Therefore, ivermectin has the potential to become an important tool for integrated vector management.

Spatio-temporal associations between deforestation and malaria incidence in Lao PDR

As countries in the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS) increasingly focus their malaria control and elimination efforts on reducing forest-related transmission, greater understanding of the relationship between deforestation and malaria incidence will be essential for programs to assess and meet their 2030 elimination goals. Leveraging village-level health facility surveillance data and forest cover data in a spatio-temporal modeling framework, we found evidence that deforestation is associated with short-term increases, but long-term decreases confirmed malaria case incidence in Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR). We identified strong associations with deforestation measured within 30 km of villages but not with deforestation in the near (10 km) and immediate (1 km) vicinity. Results appear driven by deforestation in densely forested areas and were more pronounced for infections with Plasmodium falciparum (P. falciparum) than for Plasmodium vivax (P. vivax). These findings highlight the influence of forest activities on malaria transmission in the GMS.

Biting mosquitos spread the malaria parasite to humans. Along the Mekong River in Southeast Asia, spending time in the surrounding forest increases a person's risk of malaria. This has led to a debate about whether deforestation in this area, which is called the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS), will increase or decrease malaria transmission. The answer to the debate is not clear because some malaria-transmitting mosquitos thrive in heavily forested areas, in particular in the GMS, while others prefer less forested areas.

Scientists studying malaria in the Amazon in South America suspect that malaria transmission increases shortly after deforestation but decreases six to eight years later. Some studies have tested this ‘frontier malaria’ theory but the results have been conflicting. Fewer studies have tested this theory in Southeast Asia. But deforestation has been blamed for recent malaria outbreaks in the GMS.

Using data on malaria testing and forest cover in the GMS, Rerolle et al. show that deforestation around villages increases malaria transmission in the first two years and decreases malaria rates later. This trend was driven mostly by a type of malaria called Plasmodium falciparum and was less strong for Plasmodium vivax. The location of deforested areas also mattered. Deforestation within one to 10 kilometer of villages did not affect malaria rates. Deforestation further away in about a 30 kilometer radius did affect malaria transmission. Rerolle et al. suggest this may be because villagers have to spend longer times trekking through forests to hunt or harvest wood when the wider area is deforested.

Currently, National Malaria Control Programs in the GMS focus their efforts on reducing forest-related transmission. This study strengthens the evidence supporting this approach. The results also suggest that different malaria elimination strategies may be necessary for different types of malaria parasite. Using this new information could help malaria control programs better target resources or educate villagers on how to protect themselves. The innovative methods used by Rerolle et al. reveal a more complex role of deforestation in malaria transmission and may inspire other scientists to think more carefully about environmental drivers of malaria.

FluSense: A Contactless Syndromic Surveillance Platform for Influenza-Like Illness in Hospital Waiting Areas

We developed a contactless syndromic surveillance platform FluSense that aims to expand the current paradigm of influenza-like illness (ILI) surveillance by capturing crowd-level bio-clinical signals directly related to physical symptoms of ILI from hospital waiting areas in an unobtrusive and privacy-sensitive manner. FluSense consists of a novel edge-computing sensor system, models and data processing pipelines to track crowd behaviors and influenza-related indicators, such as coughs, and to predict daily ILI and laboratory-confirmed influenza caseloads. FluSense uses a microphone array and a thermal camera along with a neural computing engine to passively and continuously characterize speech and cough sounds along with changes in crowd density on the edge in a real-time manner. We conducted an IRB-approved 7 month-long study from December 10, 2018 to July 12, 2019 where we deployed FluSense in four public waiting areas within the hospital of a large university. During this period, the FluSense platform collected and analyzed more than 350,000 waiting room thermal images and 21 million non-speech audio samples from the hospital waiting areas. FluSense can accurately predict daily patient counts with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.95. We also compared signals from FluSense with the gold standard laboratory-confirmed influenza case data obtained in the same facility and found that our sensor-based features are strongly correlated with laboratory-confirmed influenza trends.

The impact of transfluthrin on the spatial repellency of the primary malaria mosquito vectors in Vietnam: Anopheles dirus and Anopheles minimus

Background

The complexity of mosquito-borne diseases poses a major challenge to global health efforts to mitigate their impact on people residing in sub-tropical and tropical regions, to travellers and deployed military personnel. To supplement drug- and vaccine-based disease control programmes, other strategies are urgently needed, including the direct control of disease vectors. Modern vector control research generally focuses on identifying novel active ingredients and/or innovative methods to reduce human-mosquito interactions. These efforts include the evaluation of spatial repellents, which are compounds capable of altering mosquito feeding behaviour without direct contact with the chemical source.

Methods

This project examined the impact of airborne transfluthrin from impregnated textile materials on two important malaria vectors, Anopheles dirus and Anopheles minimus. Repellency was measured by movement within taxis cages within a semi-field environment at the National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology in Hanoi, Vietnam. Knockdown and mortality were measured in adult mosquito bioassay cages. Metered-volume air samples were collected at a sub-set of points in the mosquito exposure trial.

Results

Significant differences in knockdown/mortality were observed along a gradient from the exposure source with higher rates of knockdown/mortality at 2 m and 4 m when compared with the furthest distance (16 m). Knockdown/mortality was also greater at floor level and 1.5 m when compared to 3 m above the floor. Repellency was not significantly different except when comparing 2 m and 16 m taxis cages. Importantly, the two species reacted differently to transfluthrin, with An. minimus being more susceptible to knockdown and mortality. The measured concentrations of airborne transfluthrin ranged from below the limit of detection to 1.32 ng/L, however there were a limited number of evaluable samples complicating interpretation of these results.

Conclusions

This study, measuring repellency, knockdown and mortality in two malaria vectors in Vietnam demonstrates that both species are sensitive to airborne transfluthrin. The differences in magnitude of response between the two species requires further study before use in large-scale vector control programmes to delineate how spatial repellency would impact the development of insecticide resistance and the disruption of biting behaviour.

Study protocol for a cluster-randomized split-plot design trial to assess the effectiveness of targeted active malaria case detection among high-risk populations in Southern Lao PDR (the AcME-Lao study)

Introduction: Novel interventions are needed to accelerate malaria elimination, especially in areas where asymptomatic parasitemia is common, and where transmission generally occurs outside of village-based settings. Testing of community members linked to a person with clinical illness (reactive case detection, RACD) has not shown effectiveness in prior studies due to the limited sensitivity of current point-of-care tests. This study aims to assess the effectiveness of active case finding in village-based and forested-based settings using novel high-sensitivity rapid diagnostic tests in Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR).

Methods and analysis: This study is a cluster-randomized split-plot design trial. The interventions include village-based mass test and treat (MTAT), focal test and treat in high-risk populations (FTAT), and the combination of these approaches, using high-sensitivity rapid diagnostic tests (HS-RDTs) to asses P. falciparum infection status. Within four districts in Champasak province, Lao PDR fourteen health center-catchment areas will be randomized to either FTAT or control; and within these HCCAs, 56 villages will be randomized to either MTAT or control. In intervention areas, FTAT will be conducted by community-based peer navigators on a routine basis, and three separate rounds of MTAT are planned. The primary study outcome will be PCR-based Plasmodium falciparum prevalence after one year of implementation. Secondary outcomes include malaria incidence; interventional coverage; operational feasibility and acceptability; and cost and cost- effectiveness.

Ethics and dissemination: Findings will be reported on clinicaltrials.gov, in peer-reviewed publications and through stakeholder meetings with Ministry of Health and community leaders in Lao PDR and throughout the Greater Mekong Subregion.

Trial registration: clinicaltrials.gov NCT03783299 (21/12/2018)

PO 8609 PREVALENCE AND RISK FACTORS FOR GLUCOSE-6-PHOSPHATE DEHYDROGENASE (G6PD) DEFICIENCY IN TWO P. VIVAX MALARIA-ENDEMIC AREAS IN SUDAN

Background

Plasmodium vivax malaria is a major health problem in Sudan and the parasite has become widely distributed in the recent years. The WHO recommends the use of primaquine as radical cure for liver dormant stage, the hypnozoite. However, prior its use, a test for Glucose-6-phosphate Dehydrogenase (G6PD) should be performed. The objective of the current study was to determine prevalence and risk factors for G6PD deficiency in two P. vivax malaria-endemic areas in Sudan.

Methods

A cross-sectional study recruiting 557 subjects from two malaria-endemic areas in Sudan was conducted. Demographic data and blood samples were collected. G6PD activity was measured by spectrometry using SPINREACT enzymatic-UV kit.

Results

The measured G6PD activities for both sites ranged from 0.6 to 37.7 U/g Hb, with a median value of 12.8 U/g Hb. There was a significant difference in enzyme activity by study site (p<0.001), but not by sex (p=0.91). Overall, across the two study sites, 22 (3.9%) is G6PDd (<30%). Prevalence of G6PDd (<30%) in Khartoum is 1.8% (4/230) compared to 4.8% (16/327) in New Hafla. In univariate analysis predictors of G6PDd were study site (odds ratio of G6PD activity <3.8, Khartoum relative to New Halfa=0.22 (95% CI: 0.08 to 0.66), p=0.006), and recent antibiotic use (OR=2.45 (95% CI: 1.1 to 5.5), p=0.027). In multivariate analysis, the only factor that was significant was the individual’s weight in kilograms, with an OR of 0.97 (95% CI 0.95 to 0.99, p=0.014).

Conclusion

G6PD deficiency is less prevalent among Sudanese population and this indicates that the use of primaquine for radical cure of P. vivax malaria is safe.

Malaria Elimination: Time to Target All Species

Important strides have been made within the past decade toward malaria elimination in many regions, and with this progress, the feasibility of eradication is once again under discussion. If the ambitious goal of eradication is to be achieved by 2040, all species of Plasmodium infecting humans will need to be targeted with evidence-based and concerted interventions. In this perspective, the potential barriers to achieving global malaria elimination are discussed with respect to the related diversities in host, parasite, and vector populations. We argue that control strategies need to be reorientated from a sequential attack on each species, dominated by Plasmodium falciparum to one that targets all species in parallel. A set of research themes is proposed to mitigate the potential setbacks on the pathway to a malaria-free world.

Prevalence and risk factors for asymptomatic malaria and genotyping of glucose 6-phosphate (G6PD) deficiencies in a vivax-predominant setting, Lao PDR: implications for sub-national elimination goals

Background

Lao People Democratic Republic (PDR; Laos), a landlocked country in Southeast Asia, has made important progress in reducing malaria morbidity and mortality in the past 5–6 years, and the northern provinces have very low reported incidence. To support national progress towards elimination, it is critical to verify and understand these changes in disease burden.

Methods

A two-stage cluster cross-sectional survey was conducted in four districts within four northern provinces (Khua, Phongsaly Province; Paktha, Bokeo Province; Nambak, Luang Prabang, and Muang Et, Huaphanh Province). During September and October 2016, demographics and malaria risk factors were collected from a total of 1492 households. A total of 5085 persons consented to collection of blood samples for testing, by rapid diagnostic test (RDT) and polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based testing. Risk factors for infection were examined using logistic regression; and a randomized subset of males was tested for glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiencies using a combined PCR and sequencing approach.

Results

There were zero positives by RDT, and PCR detected Plasmodium infections in 39 (0.77%; 95% CI 0.40–1.47%) of 5082 analysable samples. The species distribution was Plasmodium vivax (28 total); Plasmodium falciparum/P. vivax (5); P. falciparum (3), Plasmodium malariae (2), and P. vivax/P. malariae (1). In multivariable analysis, the main risk factors included having any other cases within the household [aOR 12.83 (95% CI 4.40 to 37.38), p < 0.001]; and lack of bed net ownership within the household [aOR 10.91 (95% 5.42–21.94), p < 0.001]; age, sex and forest-travel were not associated with parasitaemia. A total of 910 males were tested for the six most common G6PDd in SE Asia; and 30 (3.3%; 95% CI 2.1–5.1%) had a G6PD variant allele associated with G6PD deficiency, with the majority being the Union (14) and Viangchan (11) polymorphisms, with smaller numbers of Canton and Mahidol.

Conclusion

This is the first rigorous PCR-based population survey for malaria infection in Northern Lao PDR, and found a very low prevalence of asymptomatic Plasmodium infections by standard PCR methods, with P. vivax predominating in the surveyed districts. Clustering of cases within households, and lack of a bed nets suggest reactive case detection, and scale-up of coverage should be prioritized. The predominance of infections with P. vivax, combined with moderate levels of serious G6PD deficiencies highlight the need for careful rollout of primaquine towards elimination goals.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12936-018-2367-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Characterization of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax recent exposure in an area of significantly decreased transmission intensity in Central Vietnam

Background

In Vietnam, malaria transmission has been reduced to very low levels over the past 20 years, and as a consequence, the country aims to eliminate malaria by 2030. This study aimed to characterize the dynamics and extent of the parasite reservoir in Central Vietnam, in order to further target elimination strategies and surveillance.

Methods

A 1-year prospective cohort study (n = 429) was performed in three rural communities in Quang Nam province. Six malaria screenings were conducted between November 2014 and November 2015, including systematic clinical examination and blood sampling for malaria parasite identification, as well as molecular and serological analysis of the study population. Malaria infections were detected by light microscopy (LM) and quantitative real time PCR (qPCR), while exposure to Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax was measured in the first and last survey by ELISA for PfAMA1, PfGLURP R2, PvAMA1, and PvMSP1-19. Classification and regression trees were used to define seropositivity and recent exposure.

Results

Four malaria infections (2 P. falciparum, 2 P. vivax) were detected in the same village by qPCR and/or LM. No fever cases were attributable to malaria. At the same time, the commune health centre (serving a larger area) reported few cases of confirmed malaria cases. Nevertheless, serological data proved that 13.5% of the surveyed population was exposed to P. falciparum and/or P. vivax parasites during the study period, of which 32.6% were seronegative at the start of the study, indicating ongoing transmission in the area. Risk factor analysis for seroprevalence and exposure to P. falciparum and/or P. vivax identified structural or economic risk factors and activity/behaviour-related factors, as well as spatial heterogeneity at the village level.

Conclusions

Previous studies in Central Vietnam demonstrated high occurrence of asymptomatic and sub-microscopic infections. However, in this study very few asymptomatic infections were detected despite serological evidence of continued transmission. Nonetheless, the factors associated with spatial heterogeneity in transmission could be evaluated using serological classification of recent exposure, which supports the usefulness of serological methods to monitor malaria transmission.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12936-018-2326-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Regional initiatives for malaria elimination: Building and maintaining partnerships

Andrew Lover and colleagues discuss regional malaria initiatives, the strengths and challenges.

Eliminate now: seven critical actions required to accelerate elimination of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in the Greater Mekong Subregion

The emergence in 2009 of Plasmodium falciparum parasites resistant to the primary therapies currently in use (artemisinin-based combination therapy, ACT) in Southeast Asia threatens to set back decades of global progress in malaria control and elimination. Progress to date through multiple sets of initiatives and partners to contain or eliminate these parasites has been hampered due to a wide range of organizational, financial, and health systems-level challenges. In this commentary, a set of seven specific and concrete actions are proposed to directly address these issues and to accelerate P. falciparum elimination within the Greater Mekong Subregion to avert a wider public health crisis. These actions are specifically needed to elevate the situation and response mechanisms to those of a true emergency; to address systems-level challenges with personnel limitations and stock-outs of key commodities; and to restructure the response mechanisms to be well-aligned with the required outcomes. Consideration of these issues is especially pressing with planning meetings for renewal of the Regional Artemisinin-resistance Initiative (RAI) framework slated for late 2016 and into 2017, but these suggestions are also relevant for malaria programmes globally.

Early diagnosis of dengue disease severity in a resource-limited Asian country

Background

Dengue is endemic throughout Cambodia, a country faced with significant health and economic challenges. We undertook a clinical study at the National Paediatric Hospital in Phnom Penh to evaluate clinical diagnostic parameters for dengue and predictors of disease outcome.

Methods

Between September 2011 and January 2013, all consecutive inpatients aged between 1 and 15 years and presenting with suspected dengue were enrolled. They were clinically assessed using both the 1997 and 2009 WHO dengue classifications. Specimens were collected upon admission and discharge and tested for dengue at Institut Pasteur in Cambodia.

Results

A total of 701 patients were screened. Of these, 79 % were dengue-confirmed by laboratory testing, and 21 % tested dengue-negative. A positive tourniquet test, absence of upper respiratory symptoms, leukopenia, thrombocytopenia, and elevated liver transaminases were independent predictors for laboratory-confirmed dengue among the children. The presence of several warning signs on hospital admission was associated with a concurrent laboratory-confirmed diagnosis of severe disease outcome.

Conclusions

The presence of two or more warning signs was associated with a concurrent laboratory-confirmed diagnosis of severe dengue at hospital admission. Thus, a cumulative score combining simple clinical parameters and first-line laboratory findings could be used to accurately predict dengue virus infection in pediatric populations, optimizing triage in settings with limited laboratory resources.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-016-1849-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Considerations for Comprehensive Analyses of Sporozoite-Based Controlled Human Malaria Infection Studies

There has been renewed interest in the use of sporozoite-based approaches for controlled human malaria infections (CHMIs), and several sets of human challenge studies have recently completed. A study undertaken in Tanzania and published in 2014 found dose dependence between 10,000 and 25,000 sporozoite doses, as well as divergent times-to-parasitemia relative to earlier studies in European volunteers, with important implications for planning future studies. Analysis of time-to-event data has had extensive development in recent years, but these methods have had limited exposure outside biostatistics. Expansion of the published analyses to include recent methodological approaches optimized for the types of data used could provide a richer analysis of these studies and may result in alternative findings. Specifically, in a re-analysis of these data using survival analysis techniques, the differences recorded in prepatent periods between the two dosing regimens do not reach statistical significance, and there is no evidence for statistically significant differences in prepatent periods between the Dutch and Tanzanian study sites. Although these findings do not impact the reported safety and tolerability of challange with cryopreserved Plasmodium falciparum sporozoites (PfSPZ), or invalidate the authors' hypotheses regarding naturally acquired immunity and its effect on parasite growth rates and prepatent periods, they highlight important opportunities to more fully use datasets from these trials and related CHMI experiments in the planning of future challenge studies.

The distribution of incubation and relapse times in experimental human infections with the malaria parasite Plasmodium vivax

BACKGROUND

The distributions of incubation and relapse periods are key components of infectious disease models for the malaria parasite Plasmodium vivax; however, detailed distributions based upon experimental data are lacking.

METHODS

Using a range of historical, experimental mosquito-transmitted human infections, Bayesian estimation with non-informative priors was used to determine parametric distributions that can be readily implemented for the incubation period and time-to-first relapse in P. vivax infections, including global subregions by parasite source. These analyses were complemented with a pooled analysis of observational human infection data with infections that included malaria chemoprophylaxis and long-latencies. The epidemiological impact of these distributional assumptions was explored using stochastic epidemic simulations at a fixed reproductive number while varying the underlying distribution of incubation periods.

RESULTS

Using the Deviance Information Criteria to compare parameterizations, experimental incubation periods are most closely modeled with a shifted log-logistic distribution; a log-logistic mixture is the best fit for incubations in observational studies. The mixture Gompertz distribution was the best fit for experimental times-to-relapse among the tested parameterizations, with some variation by geographic subregions. Simulations suggest underlying distributional assumptions have critically important impacts on both the time-scale and total case counts within epidemics.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that the exponential and gamma distributions commonly used for modeling incubation periods and relapse times inadequately capture the complexity in the distributions of event times in P. vivax malaria infections. In future models, log-logistic and Gompertz distributions should be utilized for general incubation periods and relapse times respectively, and region-specific distributions should be considered to accurately model and predict the epidemiology of this important human pathogen.

Retention and risk factors for attrition in a large public health ART program in Myanmar: a retrospective cohort analysis

Background

The outcomes from an antiretroviral treatment (ART) program within the public sector in Myanmar have not been reported. This study documents retention and the risk factors for attrition in a large ART public health program in Myanmar.

Methods

A retrospective analysis of a cohort of adult patients enrolled in the Integrated HIV Care (IHC) Program between June 2005 and October 2011 and followed up until April 2012 is presented. The primary outcome was attrition (death or loss-follow up); a total of 10,223 patients were included in the 5-year cumulative survival analysis. Overall 5,718 patients were analyzed for the risk factors for attrition using both logistic regression and flexible parametric survival models.

Result

The mean age was 36 years, 61% of patients were male, and the median follow up was 13.7 months. Overall 8,564 (84%) patients were retained in ART program: 750 (7%) were lost to follow-up and 909 (9%) died. During the 3 years follow-up, 1,542 attritions occurred over 17,524 person years at risk, giving an incidence density of 8.8% per year. The retention rates of participants at 12, 24, 36, 48 and 60 months were 86, 82, 80, 77 and 74% respectively. In multivariate analysis, being male, having high WHO staging, a low CD4 count, being anaemic or having low BMI at baseline were independent risk factors for attrition; tuberculosis (TB) treatment at ART initiation, a prior ART course before program enrollment and literacy were predictors for retention in the program.

Conclusion

High retention rate of IHC program was documented within the public sector in Myanmar. Early diagnosis of HIV, nutritional support, proper investigation and treatment for patients with low CD4 counts and for those presenting with anaemia are crucial issues towards improvement of HIV program outcomes in resource-limited settings.

Spatial epidemiology and climatic predictors of paediatric dengue infections captured via sentinel site surveillance, Phnom Penh Cambodia 2011-2012

Background

Dengue is a major contributor to morbidity in children aged twelve and below throughout Cambodia; the 2012 epidemic season was the most severe in the country since 2007, with more than 42,000 reported (suspect or confirmed) cases.

Methods

We report basic epidemiological characteristics in a series of 701 patients at the National Paediatric Hospital in Cambodia, recruited during a prospective clinical study (2011–2012). To more fully explore this cohort, we examined climatic factors using multivariate negative binomial models and spatial clustering of cases using spatial scan statistics to place the clinical study within a larger epidemiological framework.

Results

We identify statistically significant spatial clusters at the urban village scale, and find that the key climatic predictors of increasing cases are weekly minimum temperature, median relative humidity, but find a negative association with rainfall maximum, all at lag times of 1–6 weeks, with significant effects extending to 10 weeks.

Conclusions

Our results identify clustering of infections at the neighbourhood scale, suggesting points for targeted interventions, and we find that the complex interactions of vectors and climatic conditions in this setting may be best captured by rising minimum temperature, and median (as opposed to mean) relative humidity, with complex and limited effects from rainfall. These results suggest that real-time cluster detection during epidemics should be considered in Cambodia, and that improvements in weather data reporting could benefit national control programs by allow greater prioritization of limited health resources to both vulnerable populations and time periods of greatest risk. Finally, these results add to the increasing body of knowledge suggesting complex interactions between climate and dengue cases that require further targeted research.

Demographic and spatial predictors of anemia in women of reproductive age in Timor-Leste: implications for health program prioritization

Anemia is a significant risk factor for poor health outcomes for both the mother and neonate; however, the determinants of anemia in many epidemiological settings are poorly understood. Using a subset of a nationally representative cluster survey (2010 Demographic and Health Survey) in combination with other non-contemporaneous survey data, the epidemiology of anemia among women of reproductive age in Timor-Leste has been explored. Logistic regression was used to identify risk factors, population-level impacts were estimated as population attributable fractions and spatial analytics were used to identify regions of highest risk. The DHS survey found that ∼21% of adult women in Timor-Leste are anemic (49,053; 95% CI: 37,095 to 61,035), with hemoglobin <12.0 g/dL. In this population, the main risk factors (adjusted odds ratio; 95% CI) are: currently abstaining from sex for any reason (2.25; 1.50 to 3.38); illiteracy (2.04; 1.49 to 2.80); giving birth within the previous year (1.80; 1.29 to 2.51); consumption of fruits/vegetables low in vitamin A (1.57; 1.13 to 2.20); and the district-level confirmed malaria incidence (1.31; 1.15 to 1.49). A review of prior soil-transmitted helminth surveys in Timor-Leste indicates low-to-moderate prevalence with generally low egg counts, suggesting a limited impact on anemia in this setting, although comprehensive survey data are lacking. Examination of the population-level effects highlights the impacts of both recent births and malaria on anemia, with more limited impacts from diet; the evidence does not suggest a large contribution from geohelminths within Timor-Leste. These patterns are divergent from some other settings in the Asia-Pacific region and highlight the need for further focused research. Targeting high-burden districts and by increasing access to pre/postnatal care, raising literacy levels, increasing access to family planning, and improving malaria control should be prioritized to maximize inherently limited health budgets in reaching these populations.

Progression from new methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus colonisation to infection: an observational study in a hospital cohort

BACKGROUND

Patients newly colonised with methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) are at higher risk of clinical MRSA infection. At present, there are limited data on the duration or magnitude of this risk in a hospital population with a known time of MRSA acquisition.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study of 909 adult patients known to have newly identified MRSA colonisation during admission to National University Hospital, Singapore between 1 July 2007 and 30 June 2011 was undertaken. Patients were excluded if they had history of previous MRSA colonisation or infection, or if they had been a hospital inpatient in the preceding 12 months. Data were collected on the development of MRSA infection requiring hospitalisation up to 30 June 2012.

RESULTS

Of 840 patients newly colonised with MRSA as identified on active surveillance and not clinical specimens, 546 were men (65.0%) and the median age was 65 years (range 18-103 years). Median follow up was 24 months (range 0 -64 months, 85.1% followed >6 months). Clinical infection occurred in 121 patients (14.4%) with median time to infection of 22 days (95% CI 14-31). Overall 71.9% (87/121) of infected patients developed infection within 60 days of the date MRSA colonisation was detected. However, 17/121 patients (14.0%) developed clinical infection more than six months after documented MRSA acquisition. The most common sites of clinical infection were skin and soft tissue (49/121, 40.5%, 95% CI 31.7-49.8), respiratory tract (37/121, 30.6%, 95% CI 22.5-39.6) and bone and joint infections (14/121, 11.6%, 95% CI 6.5-18.7). Thirteen patients (13/121, 10.7%, 95% CI 5.8-17.7) had bacteraemias, of which six (5.0% 95% CI 1.8-10.5) were primary and seven (5.7%, 95% CI 2.3-11.6) were secondary to infection at other sites. Crude mortality at 30 days and six months was higher in patients with MRSA infection than colonisation alone (aOR 5.49, 95% CI 2.75-10.95, p<0.001 and aOR 2.94, 95% CI 1.78-4.85, p<0.001 respectively).

CONCLUSION

Risk of clinical infection is highest soon after MRSA acquisition. Prevention of MRSA acquisition in hospital will have significant impact on morbidity and mortality for patients.

Quantifying effect of geographic location on epidemiology of Plasmodium vivax malaria

Recent autochthonous transmission of Plasmodium vivax malaria in previously malaria-free temperate regions has generated renewed interest in the epidemiology of this disease. Accurate estimates of the incubation period and time to relapse are required for effective malaria surveillance; however, this information is currently lacking. By using historical data from experimental human infections with diverse P. vivax strains, survival analysis models were used to obtain quantitative estimates of the incubation period and time to first relapse for P. vivax malaria in broad geographic regions. Results show that Eurasian strains from temperate regions have longer incubation periods, and Western Hemisphere strains from tropical and temperate regions have longer times to relapse compared with Eastern Hemisphere strains. The diversity in these estimates of key epidemiologic parameters for P. vivax supports the need for elucidating local epidemiology to inform clinical follow-up and to build an evidence base toward global elimination of malaria.

An exploratory study of treated-bed nets in Timor-Leste: patterns of intended and alternative usage

Background

The Timor-Leste Ministry of Health has recently finalized the National Malaria Control Strategy for 2010-2020. A key component of this roadmap is to provide universal national coverage with long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) in support of achieving the primary goal of reducing both morbidity and mortality from malaria by 30% in the first three years, followed by a further reduction of 20% by end of the programme cycle in 2020 [1]. The strategic plan calls for this target to be supported by a comprehensive information, education and communication (IEC) programme; however, there is limited prior research into household and personal usage patterns to assist in the creation of targeted, effective, and socio-culturally specific behaviour change materials.

Methods

Nine separate focus group discussions (FGDs) were carried out in Dili, Manatuto, and Covalima districts, Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste, in July 2010.

These focus groups primarily explored themes of perceived malaria risk, causes of malaria, net usage patterns within families, barriers to correct and consistent usage, and the daily experience of users (both male and female) in households with at least one net. Comprehensive qualitative analysis utilized open source analysis software.

Results

The primary determinants of net usage were a widespread perception that nets could or should only be used by pregnant women and young children, and the availability of sufficient sleeping space under a limited number of nets within households. Both nuisance biting and disease prevention were commonly cited as primary motivations for usage, while seasonality was not a significant factor. Long-term net durability and ease of hanging were seen as key attributes in net design preference. Very frequent washing cycles were common, potentially degrading net effectiveness. Finally, extensive re-purposing of nets (fishing, protecting crops) was both reported and observed, and may significantly decrease availability of nighttime sleeping space for all family members if distributed nets do not remain within the household.

Conclusions

Emphasizing that net usage is acceptable and important for all family members regardless of age or gender, and addressing the complex behavioural economics of alternative net usages could have significant impacts on malaria control efforts in Timor-Leste, as the country's programmes make progress towards universal net coverage.

Asymmetric 1,4-reductions of hindered beta-substituted cycloalkenones using catalytic SEGPHOS-ligated CuH

The reagent combination of catalytic amounts of copper hydride ligated by a nonracemic SEGPHOS ligand leads in situ to an extremely reactive species capable of effecting asymmetric hydrosilylations of conjugated cyclic enones in very high ees. An unprecedented substrate-to-ligand ratio as high as 275 000:1 for this transformation has been documented. [reaction: see text]