Health trends, inequalities and opportunities in South Africa's provinces, 1990-2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study

BACKGROUND

Over the last 30 years, South Africa has experienced four 'colliding epidemics' of HIV and tuberculosis, chronic illness and mental health, injury and violence, and maternal, neonatal, and child mortality, which have had substantial effects on health and well-being. Using data from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD 2019), we evaluated national and provincial health trends and progress towards important Sustainable Development Goal targets from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We analysed GBD 2019 estimates of mortality, non-fatal health loss, summary health measures and risk factor burden, comparing trends over 1990-2007 and 2007-2019. Additionally, we decomposed changes in life expectancy by cause of death and assessed healthcare system performance.

RESULTS

Across the nine provinces, inequalities in mortality and life expectancy increased over 1990-2007, largely due to differences in HIV/AIDS, then decreased over 2007-2019. Demographic change and increases in non-communicable diseases nearly doubled the number of years lived with disability between 1990 and 2019. From 1990 to 2019, risk factor burdens generally shifted from communicable and nutritional disease risks to non-communicable disease and injury risks; unsafe sex remained the top risk factor. Despite widespread improvements in healthcare system performance, the greatest gains were generally in economically advantaged provinces.

CONCLUSIONS

Reductions in HIV/AIDS and related conditions have led to improved health since 2007, though most provinces still lag in key areas. To achieve health targets, provincial governments should enhance health investments and exchange of knowledge, resources and best practices alongside populations that have been left behind, especially following the COVID-19 pandemic.

Rationale and design of the African Cardiomyopathy and Myocarditis Registry Program: The IMHOTEP study

BACKGROUND

Heart failure (HF), the dominant form of cardiovascular disease in Africans, is mainly due to hypertension, rheumatic heart disease and cardiomyopathy. Cardiomyopathies pose a great challenge because of poor prognosis and high prevalence in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Little is known about the etiology and outcome of cardiomyopathy in Africa. Specifically, the role of myocarditis and the genetic causes of cardiomyopathy are largely unidentified in Africans.

METHOD

The African Cardiomyopathy and Myocarditis Registry Program (the IMHOTEP study) is a pan-African multi-centre, hospital-based cohort study, designed with the primary aim of describing the clinical characteristics, genetic causes, prevalence, management and outcome of cardiomyopathy and myocarditis in children and adults. The secondary aim is to identify barriers to the implementation of evidence-based care and provide a platform for trials and other intervention studies to reduce morbidity and mortality in cardiomyopathy. The registry consists of a prospective cohort of newly diagnosed (i.e., incident) cases and a retrospective (i.e., prevalent) cohort of existing cases from participating centres. Patients with cardiomyopathy and myocarditis will be subjected to a standardized 3-stage diagnostic process. To date, 750 patients have been recruited into the multi-centre pilot phase of the study.

CONCLUSION

The IMHOTEP study will provide comprehensive and novel data on clinical features, genetic causes, prevalence and outcome of African children and adults with all forms of cardiomyopathy and myocarditis in Africa. Based on these findings, appropriate strategies for management and prevention of the cardiomyopathies in LMICs are likely to emerge.

Cadherin 2-Related Arrhythmogenic Cardiomyopathy: Prevalence and Clinical Features

BACKGROUND

Arrhythmogenic cardiomyopathy (ACM) is an inherited cardiac disease characterized by fibrofatty replacement of the right and left ventricle, often causing ventricular dysfunction and life-threatening arrhythmias. Variants in desmosomal genes account for up to 60% of cases. Our objective was to establish the prevalence and clinical features of ACM stemming from pathogenic variants in the nondesmosomal cadherin 2 (CDH2), a novel genetic substrate of ACM.

METHODS

A cohort of 500 unrelated patients with a definite diagnosis of ACM and no disease-causing variants in the main ACM genes was assembled. Genetic screening of CDH2 was performed through next-generation or Sanger sequencing. Whenever possible, cascade screening was initiated in the families of CDH2-positive probands, and clinical evaluation was performed.

RESULTS

Genetic screening of CDH2 led to the identification of 7 rare variants: 5, identified in 6 probands, were classified as pathogenic or likely pathogenic. The previously established p.D407N pathogenic variant was detected in 2 additional probands. Probands and family members with pathogenic/likely pathogenic variants in CDH2 were clinically evaluated, and along with previously published cases, altogether contributed to the identification of gene-specific features (13 cases from this cohort and 11 previously published, for a total of 9 probands and 15 family members). Ventricular arrhythmic events occurred in most CDH2-positive subjects (20/24, 83%), while the occurrence of heart failure was rare (2/24, 8.3%). Among probands, sustained ventricular tachycardia and sudden cardiac death occurred in 5/9 (56%).

CONCLUSIONS

In this worldwide cohort of previously genotype-negative ACM patients, the prevalence of probands with CDH2 pathogenic/likely pathogenic variants was 1.2% (6/500). Our data show that this cohort of CDH2-ACM patients has a high incidence of ventricular arrhythmias, while evolution toward heart failure is rare.

Exploring how a genetic attribution to disease relates to stigma experiences of Xhosa patients with schizophrenia in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Over the past three decades, a range of international stakeholders have highlighted the possibility that genomic research may impact stigma associated with psychiatric disorders. Limited research has been conducted in Africa to investigate this relation.

METHOD

In the present study, using focus group discussions, we explored the relation between genetic attribution and stigma among 36 Xhosa people with schizophrenia. We addressed three main questions: (1) What causal beliefs do Xhosa people with schizophrenia use to explain their illness and to what extent do genetic explanations play a role in these beliefs? (2) What are the internalised stigma experiences of Xhosa people with schizophrenia? (3) How do genetic explanations relate to stigma experiences, if at all?

RESULTS

Most participants were able to define genetics and some linked genetics to disease causation. Despite adequate knowledge of genetics and an emphasis on genetic explanations of schizophrenia in the study, most participants held a multitude of causal explanations including: psychosocial, environmental, and cultural. Moreover, participants rarely mentioned disease cause when describing their stigma experiences.

DISCUSSION

For this population group, there was no straight-forward relation between a genetic attribution and stigma. Therefore, we did not find evidence that genetic attribution may significantly increase stigma. Although North American and European literature provides conflicting evidence regarding this relation, there is increased consensus that biomedical explanations for psychiatric disorders may reduce blame. This study found evidence supporting that consensus. This study provides an empirical foundation to inform ongoing work on the psychosocial implications of psychiatric genomics research in non-Western contexts.

N-terminal pro BNP and galectin-3 are prognostic biomarkers of acute heart failure in sub-Saharan Africa: lessons from the BAHEF trial

Aims

The relationship between N‐terminal pro‐brain natriuretic peptide (NT‐pro‐BNP) and galectin‐3 and outcomes has not been studied in African patients with acute heart failure (AHF). The current analysis sought to describe the association between plasma levels of NT‐pro‐BNP and galectin‐3 and cardiovascular (CV) death or heart failure (HF) hospitalization, as well as their associations with symptoms and echocardiography markers of left and right ventricular remodelling among AHF patientsv in sub‐Saharan Africa.

Methods and results

In a subset of 80 patients with complete data in a study assessing the effects of hydralazine and nitrates in patients with AHF (BAHEF trial; NCT01822808), NT‐pro‐BNP and galectin‐3 analyses were performed, and the association with various characteristics and outcome measures assessed. The mean age of the patients for whom the aforementioned biomarkers were measured was 52.6 years, with 52.5% women. Galectin‐3 at baseline predicted changes (Week 24 to baseline) in left ventricular ejection fraction, left ventricular end‐systolic diameter, left ventricular end‐diastolic diameter, and tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion. Biomarkers and their changes were not associated with changes in 6 min walk test at 24 weeks. Baseline galectin‐3 and change in NT‐pro‐BNP were associated with improvements in dyspnoea at 24 weeks. Nine patients had an HF readmission or died of CV causes through 24 weeks (11.6%). Both biomarkers at baseline predicted combined CV death or HF hospitalization through Week 24 (P‐values = 0.0328 and 0.0001, respectively).

Conclusions

In a cohort of patients with AHF from sub‐Saharan Africa, NT‐pro‐BNP and galectin‐3 at baseline and their changes were associated with some changes in dyspnoea, echocardiographic remodelling, and CV death or HF hospitalization through Week 24. These tests have potential of being used for risk stratification of AHF patients in sub‐Saharan Africa where resources are scarce.

The INVICTUS rheumatic heart disease research program: Rationale, design and baseline characteristics of a randomized trial of rivaroxaban compared to vitamin K antagonists in rheumatic valvular disease and atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) is a neglected disease affecting 33 million people, mainly in low and middle income countries. Yet very few large trials or registries have been conducted in this population. The INVICTUS program of research in RHD consists of a randomized-controlled trial (RCT) of 4500 patients comparing rivaroxaban with vitamin K antagonists (VKA) in patients with RHD and atrial fibrillation (AF), a registry of 17,000 patients to document the contemporary clinical course of patients with RHD, including a focused sub-study on pregnant women with RHD within the registry. This paper describes the rationale, design, organization and baseline characteristics of the RCT and a summary of the design of the registry and its sub-study. Patients with RHD and AF are considered to be at high risk of embolic strokes, and oral anticoagulation with VKAs is recommended for stroke prevention. But the quality of anticoagulation with VKA is poor in developing countries. A drug which does not require monitoring, and which is safe and effective for preventing stroke in patients with valvular AF, would fulfill a major unmet need.

METHODS

The INVestIgation of rheumatiC AF Treatment Using VKAs, rivaroxaban or aspirin Studies (INVICTUS-VKA) trial is an international, multicentre, randomized, open-label, parallel group trial, testing whether rivaroxaban 20 mg given once daily is non-inferior (or superior) to VKA in patients with RHD, AF, and an elevated risk of stroke (mitral stenosis with valve area ≤2 cm2, left atrial spontaneous echo-contrast or thrombus, or a CHA2DS2VASc score ≥2). The primary efficacy outcome is a composite of stroke or systemic embolism and the primary safety outcome is the occurrence of major bleeding. The trial has enrolled 4565 patients from 138 sites in 23 countries from Africa, Asia and South America. The Registry plans to enroll an additional 17,000 patients with RHD and document their treatments, and their clinical course for at least 2 years. The pregnancy sub-study will document the clinical course of pregnant women with RHD.

CONCLUSION

INVICTUS is the largest program of clinical research focused on a neglected cardiovascular disease and will provide new information on the clinical course of patients with RHD, and approaches to anticoagulation in those with concomitant AF.

Burden of non-communicable diseases in sub-Saharan Africa, 1990-2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Although the burden of disease in sub-Saharan Africa continues to be dominated by infectious diseases, countries in this region are undergoing a demographic transition leading to increasing prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs). To inform health system responses to these changing patterns of disease, we aimed to assess changes in the burden of NCDs in sub-Saharan Africa from 1990 to 2017.

METHODS

We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to analyse the burden of NCDs in sub-Saharan Africa in terms of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs)-with crude counts as well as all-age and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population-with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We examined changes in burden between 1990 and 2017, and differences across age, sex, and regions. We also compared the observed NCD burden across countries with the expected values based on a country's Socio-demographic Index.

FINDINGS

All-age total DALYs due to NCDs increased by 67·0% between 1990 (90·6 million [95% UI 81·0-101·9]) and 2017 (151·3 million [133·4-171·8]), reflecting an increase in the proportion of total DALYs attributable to NCDs (from 18·6% [95% UI 17·1-20·4] to 29·8% [27·6-32·0] of the total burden). Although most of this increase can be explained by population growth and ageing, the age-standardised DALY rate (per 100 000 population) due to NCDs in 2017 (21 757·7 DALYs [95% UI 19 377·1-24 380·7]) was almost equivalent to that of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (26 491·6 DALYs [25 165·2-28 129·8]). Cardiovascular diseases were the second leading cause of NCD burden in 2017, resulting in 22·9 million (21·5-24·3) DALYs (15·1% of the total NCD burden), after the group of disorders categorised as other NCDs (28·8 million [25·1-33·0] DALYs, 19·1%). These categories were followed by neoplasms, mental disorders, and digestive diseases. Although crude DALY rates for all NCDs have decreased slightly across sub-Saharan Africa, age-standardised rates are on the rise in some countries (particularly those in southern sub-Saharan Africa) and for some NCDs (such as diabetes and some cancers, including breast and prostate cancer).

INTERPRETATION

NCDs in sub-Saharan Africa are posing an increasing challenge for health systems, which have to date largely focused on tackling infectious diseases and maternal, neonatal, and child deaths. To effectively address these changing needs, countries in sub-Saharan Africa require detailed epidemiological data on NCDs.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Health and Medical Research Centre (Australia).

Regional Patterns and Association Between Obesity and Hypertension in Africa: Evidence From the H3Africa CHAIR Study

Hypertension and obesity are the most important modifiable risk factors for cardiovascular diseases, but their association is not well characterized in Africa. We investigated regional patterns and association of obesity with hypertension among 30 044 continental Africans. We harmonized data on hypertension (defined as previous diagnosis/use of antihypertensive drugs or blood pressure [BP]≥140/90 mmHg/BP≥130/80 mmHg) and obesity from 30 044 individuals in the Cardiovascular H3Africa Innovation Resource across 13 African countries. We analyzed data from population-based controls and the Entire Harmonized Dataset. Age-adjusted and crude proportions of hypertension were compared regionally, across sex, and between hypertension definitions. Logit generalized estimating equation was used to determine the independent association of obesity with hypertension (P value <5%). Participants were 56% women; with mean age 48.5±12.0 years. Crude proportions of hypertension (at BP≥140/90 mmHg) were 47.9% (95% CI, 47.4-48.5) for Entire Harmonized Dataset and 42.0% (41.1-42.7) for population-based controls and were significantly higher for the 130/80 mm Hg threshold at 59.3% (58.7-59.9) in population-based controls. The age-adjusted proportion of hypertension at BP≥140/90 mmHg was the highest among men (33.8% [32.1-35.6]), in western Africa (34.7% [33.3-36.2]), and in obese individuals (43.6%; 40.3-47.2). Obesity was independently associated with hypertension in population-based controls (adjusted odds ratio, 2.5 [2.3-2.7]) and odds of hypertension in obesity increased with increasing age from 2.0 (1.7-2.3) in younger age to 8.8 (7.4-10.3) in older age. Hypertension is common across multiple countries in Africa with 11.9% to 51.7% having BP≥140/90 mmHg and 39.5% to 69.4% with BP≥130/80 mmHg. Obese Africans were more than twice as likely to be hypertensive and the odds increased with increasing age.

Prevalence of group A Streptococcal infection in Africa to inform GAS vaccines for rheumatic heart disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of group A streptococcal (GAS) disease is estimated at >18.1 million cases with an incidence of >1.78 million cases per year. While a significant cause of mortality and morbidity on the global scale, the burden of GAS disease in Africa is unknown. We conducted a systematic review on the prevalence of GAS disease among children and adults in Africa and the frequency and distribution of emm types among isolates.

METHODS

We performed a comprehensive literature search in a number of databases, using an African search filter. Two reviewers independently selected articles meeting pre-specified criteria and extracted relevant data as per a data extraction form. We applied the random-effects meta-analysis model to aggregate GAS prevalence estimates with 95% CI for GAS prevalence, incorporating the Freeman-Tukey transformation to account for between-study variability.

RESULTS

Twenty-five studies were included. Invasive GAS disease prevalence ranged from 0.6% to 10.8% in samples from normally-sterile sites including blood, CSF and soft tissue. A single study reported a prevalence of 74% in skin infections. Prevalence of emm types varied with up to 88 different strains reported, corresponding to a vaccine coverage of 28% to 65%. The pooled prevalence of GAS in persons presenting with pharyngitis was 21% (95% CI, 17% to 26%).

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of GAS remains high among symptomatic individuals residing in Africa. Data on molecular strain characterisation of GAS in Africa is largely non-existent, thus the need for further studies is warranted to inform current prevention efforts including vaccine development.

Prevalence and progression of rheumatic heart disease: a global systematic review and meta-analysis of population-based echocardiographic studies

This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to provide a contemporaneous estimate of the global burden of rheumatic heart disease (RHD) from echocardiographic population-based studies. We searched multiple databases between January 01, 1996 and October 17, 2017. Random-effect meta-analysis was used to pool data. We included 82 studies (1,090,792 participant) reporting data on the prevalence of RHD and 9 studies on the evolution of RHD lesions. The pooled prevalence of RHD was 26.1‰ (95%CI 19.2–33.1) and 11.3‰ (95%CI 7.2–16.2) for studies which used the World Heart Federation (WHF) and World Health Organization (WHO) criteria, respectively. The prevalence of RHD varied inversely with the level of a country’s income, was lower with the WHO criteria compared to the WHF criteria, and was lowest in South East Asia. Definite RHD progressed in 7.5% (95% CI 1.5–17.6) of the cases, while 60.7% (95% CI 42.4–77.5) of cases remained stable over the course of follow-up. The proportion of cases borderline RHD who progressed to definite RHD was 11.3% (95% CI 6.9–16.5). The prevalence of RHD across WHO regions remains high. The highest prevalence of RHD was noted among studies which used the WHF diagnostic criteria. Definite RHD tends to progress or remain stable over time.

Marked variation in heritability estimates of left ventricular mass depending on modality of measurement

Left ventricular (LV) hypertrophy is a strong risk factor for heart failure and cardiovascular death. ECG measures of LV mass are estimated as heritable in twin and family-based analyses and heritability estimates of LV mass measured by echocardiography are lower. We hypothesised that CMR-derived measurements, being more precise than echocardiographic measurements, would advance our understanding of heritable LV traits. We phenotyped 116 British families (427 individuals) by CMR and ECG, and undertook heritability analyses using variance-components (QTDT) and GWAS SNP-based (GCTA-GREML) methods. ECG-based traits such as LV mass and Sokolow-Lyon duration showed substantial estimates of heritability (60%), whereas CMR-derived LV mass was only modestly heritable (20%). However, the ECG LV mass was positively correlated with the lateral diameter of the chest (rho = 0.67), and adjustment for this attenuated the heritability estimate (42%). Finally, CMR-derived right ventricular mass showed considerable heritability (44%). Heritability estimates of LV phenotypes show substantial variation depending on the modality of measurement, being greater when measured by ECG than CMR. This may reflect the differences between electrophysiological as opposed to anatomical hypertrophy. However, ECG LV hypertrophy traits are likely to be influenced by genetic association with anthropometric measures, inflating their overall measured heritability.

Statistics on the use of cardiac electronic devices and interventional electrophysiological procedures in Africa from 2011 to 2016: report of the Pan African Society of Cardiology (PASCAR) Cardiac Arrhythmias and Pacing Task Forces

Aims

To provide comprehensive information on the access and use of cardiac implantable electronic devices (CIED) and catheter ablation procedures in Africa.

Methods and results

The Pan-African Society of Cardiology (PASCAR) collected data on invasive management of cardiac arrhythmias from 2011 to 2016 from 31 African countries. A specific template was completed by physicians, and additional information obtained from industry. Information on health care systems, demographics, economics, procedure rates, and specific training programs was collected. Considerable heterogeneity in the access to arrhythmia care was observed across Africa. Eight of the 31 countries surveyed (26%) did not perform pacemaker implantations. The median pacemaker implantation rate was 2.66 per million population per country (range: 0.14–233 per million population). Implantable cardioverter-defibrillator and cardiac resynchronization therapy were performed in 12/31 (39%) and 15/31 (48%) countries respectively, mostly by visiting teams. Electrophysiological studies, including complex catheter ablations were performed in all countries from Maghreb, but only one sub-Saharan African country (South Africa). Marked variation in cost (up to 1000-fold) was observed across countries with an inverse correlation between implant rates and the procedure fees standardized to the gross domestic product per capita. Lack of economic resources and facilities, high cost of procedures, deficiency of trained physicians, and non-existent fellowship programs were the main drivers of under-utilization of interventional cardiac arrhythmia care.

Conclusion

There is limited access to CIED and ablation procedures in Africa. A quarter of countries did not have pacemaker implantation services, and catheter ablations were only available in one country in sub-Saharan Africa.

Use of broad consent and related procedures in genomics research: Perspectives from research participants in the Genetics of Rheumatic Heart Disease (RHDGen) study in a University Teaching Hospital in Zambia

The use of broad consent for genomics research raises important ethical questions for the conduct of genomics research, including relating to its acceptability to research participants and comprehension of difficult scientific concepts. To explore these and other challenges, we conducted a study using qualitative methods with participants enrolled in an H3Africa Rheumatic Heart Disease genomics study (the RHDGen network) in Zambia to explore their views on broad consent, sample and data sharing and secondary use. In-depth interviews were conducted with RHDGen participants (n = 18), study staff (n = 5) and with individuals who refused to participate (n = 3). In general, broad consent was seen to be reasonable if reasons for storing the samples for future research use were disclosed. Some felt that broad consent should be restricted by specifying planned future studies and that secondary research should ideally relate to original disease for which samples were collected. A few participants felt that broad consent would delay the return of research results to participants. This study echoes findings in other similar studies in other parts of the continent that suggested that broad consent could be an acceptable consent model in Africa if careful thought is given to restrictions on re-use.

Status of cardiac arrhythmia services in Africa in 2018: a PASCAR Sudden Cardiac Death Task Force report

Background

There is limited information on the availability of health services to treat cardiac arrhythmias in Africa.

Methods

The Pan–African Society of Cardiology (PASCAR) Sudden Cardiac Death Task Force conducted a survey of the burden of cardiac arrhythmias and related services over two months (15 October to 15 December) in 2017. An electronic questionnaire was completed by general cardiologists and electrophysiologists working in African countries. The questionnaire focused on availability of human resources, diagnostic tools and treatment modalities in each country.

Results

We received responses from physicians in 33 out of 55 (60%) African countries. Limited use of basic cardiovascular drugs such as anti–arrhythmics and anticoagulants prevails. Non–vitamin K–dependent oral anticoagulants (NOACs) are not widely used on the continent, even in North Africa. Six (18%) of the sub–Saharan African (SSA) countries do not have a registered cardiologist and about one–third do not have pacemaker services. The median pacemaker implantation rate was 2.66 per million population per country, which is 200–fold lower than in Europe. The density of pacemaker facilities and operators in Africa is quite low, with a median of 0.14 (0.03–6.36) centres and 0.10 (0.05–9.49) operators per million population. Less than half of the African countries have a functional catheter laboratory with only South Africa providing the full complement of services for cardiac arrhythmia in SSA. Overall, countries in North Africa have better coverage, leaving more than 110 million people in SSA without access to effective basic treatment for cardiac conduction disturbances.

Conclusion

The lack of diagnostic and treatment services for cardiac arrhythmias is a common scenario in the majority of SSA countries, resulting in sub–optimal care and a subsequent high burden of premature cardiac death. There is a need to improve the standard of care by providing essential services such as cardiac pacemaker implantation.

ANIMA: Association network integration for multiscale analysis

Contextual functional interpretation of -omics data derived from clinical samples is a classical and difficult problem in computational systems biology. The measurement of thousands of data points on single samples has become routine but relating ‘big data’ datasets to the complexities of human pathobiology is an area of ongoing research. Complicating this is the fact that many publicly available datasets use bulk transcriptomics data from complex tissues like blood. The most prevalent analytic approaches derive molecular ‘signatures’ of disease states or apply modular analysis frameworks to the data. Here we describe ANIMA (association network integration for multiscale analysis), a network-based data integration method using clinical phenotype and microarray data as inputs. ANIMA is implemented in R and Neo4j and runs in Docker containers. In short, the build algorithm iterates over one or more transcriptomics datasets to generate a large, multipartite association network by executing multiple independent analytic steps (differential expression, deconvolution, modular analysis based on co-expression, pathway analysis) and integrating the results. Once the network is built, it can be queried directly using Cypher (a graph query language), or by custom functions that communicate with the graph database via language-specific APIs. We developed a web application using Shiny, which provides fully interactive, multiscale views of the data. Using our approach, we show that we can reconstruct multiple features of disease states at various scales of organization, from transcript abundance patterns of individual genes through co-expression patterns of groups of genes to patterns of cellular behaviour in whole blood samples, both in single experiments as well in meta-analyses of multiple datasets.

Clinical characteristics and outcome of lone atrial fibrillation at a tertiary referral centre: the Groote Schuur Hospital experience

INTRODUCTION

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a relatively common arrhythmia. When AF represents an electrophysiological phenomenon in structurally normal hearts, it is termed lone AF. This study was a retrospective, case-based analysis of patients attending the Cardiac Clinic at Groote Schuur Hospital (GSH) and describes the clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients classified as having lone atrial fibrillation. To the best of our knowledge there are no such studies reported from Africa.

METHODS

This was a retrospective, descriptive study in which 289 medical records of patients with AF at the GSH Cardiac Clinic were reviewed from 1992 to 2006. The clinical data were interrogated to exclude identifiable causes of AF. Information on clinical characteristics and outcomes were entered into a data-entry form. Baseline descriptive statistics were expressed as means and range for continuous variables, and counts with percentages for categorical variables.

RESULTS

Fifteen per cent (n = 42) of patients were identified as having lone AF, with a mean follow-up time of 5.8 years. Males comprised 57% (n = 24) and females 43% (n = 18). Fifty per cent (n = 21) of the patients had paroxysmal AF, 29% (n = 12) had persistent AF, and 12% (n = 5) progressed from paroxysmal to permanent AF. Subsets of lone AF included concomitant atrial flutter (17%) (n = 7) and sick sinus syndrome (21%) (n = 9). Complications were stroke (10%) (n = 4), tachycardia-related cardiomyopathy (17%) (n = 7) and bleeding complications on warfarin (11%) (n = 3).

CONCLUSIONS

Lone AF is not an uncommon arrhythmia, with a preponderance in thin, middle-aged males. The symptoms of lone AF can be debilitating. It has associated morbidity, including tachycardia-related cardiomyopathy and thromboembolism. Rate control and appropriate anticoagulation are the cornerstones of patient management.

Established and novel pathophysiological mechanisms of pericardial injury and constrictive pericarditis

This review article aims to: (1) discern from the literature the immune and inflammatory processes occurring in the pericardium following injury; and (2) to delve into the molecular mechanisms which may play a role in the progression to constrictive pericarditis. Pericarditis arises as a result of a wide spectrum of pathologies of both infectious and non-infectious aetiology, which lead to various degrees of fibrogenesis. Current understanding of the sequence of molecular events leading to pathological manifestations of constrictive pericarditis is poor. The identification of key mechanisms and pathways common to most fibrotic events in the pericardium can aid in the design and development of novel interventions for the prevention and management of constriction. We have identified through this review various cellular events and signalling cascades which are likely to contribute to the pathological fibrotic phenotype. An initial classical pattern of inflammation arises as a result of insult to the pericardium and can exacerbate into an exaggerated or prolonged inflammatory state. Whilst the implication of major drivers of inflammation and fibrosis such as tumour necrosis factor and transforming growth factor β were foreseeable, the identification of pericardial deregulation of other mediators (basic fibroblast growth factor, galectin-3 and the tetrapeptide Ac-SDKP) provides important avenues for further research.

Digoxin and clinical outcomes in the Global Rheumatic Heart Disease Registry

OBJECTIVE

Digoxin is widely used in patients with rheumatic heart disease (RHD) despite a lack of data on its impact on clinical outcomes. We aimed to determine the association of digoxin use on clinical outcomes in patients with RHD.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of the association of digoxin use with mortality at 2 years in a large RHD registry. Secondary outcomes were recurrent heart failure (HF) and hospitalisation for any cause. We assessed associations using multivariable logistic regression in the entire cohort and in subgroups of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and HF. We also estimated average treatment effects from propensity-adjusted analyses using inverse probability treatment weighting.

RESULTS

Information on digoxin use at baseline was available for 98.7% (3298/3343) of patients. In the overall population, digoxin was significantly associated with mortality (OR 1.63, 95% CI 1.30 to 2.04, p<0.0001) and recurrent HF (OR 1.48, 95% CI 1.07 to 2.04, p=0.019). On propensity-weighted analyses, this effect was markedly attenuated (OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.09, p=0.005). Patients in sinus rhythm without HF had a higher propensity-adjusted odds of death with digoxin use (OR 1.06, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.12, p=0.015), but those with both AF and HF had lower mortality (OR 0.88, 95% CI 0.80 to 0.98, p=0.019).

CONCLUSION

Digoxin use is associated with higher mortality in patients with RHD, but this is greatly attenuated on propensity adjustment, indicating the presence of substantial treatment bias. The adjusted estimates may therefore not be reliable, and large randomised trials are needed to determine the true effect of digoxin in patients with RHD.

The Cape Town Declaration on Access to Cardiac Surgery in the Developing World

Mission

to urge all relevant entities within the international cardiac surgery, industry and government sectors to commit to develop and implement an effective strategy to address the scourge of rheumatic heart disease in the developing world through increased access to life-saving cardiac surgery.

Rationale and design of the comparison of 3 combination therapies in lowering blood pressure in black Africans (CREOLE study): 2 × 3 factorial randomized single-blind multicenter trial

BACKGROUND

Current hypertension guidelines recommend the use of combination therapy as first-line treatment or early in the management of hypertensive patients. Although there are many possible combinations of blood pressure(BP)-lowering therapies, the best combination for the black population is still a subject of debate because no large randomized controlled trials have been conducted in this group to compare the efficacy of different combination therapies to address this issue.

METHODS

The comparison of 3 combination therapies in lowering BP in the black Africans (CREOLE) study is a randomized single-blind trial that will compare the efficacy of amlodipine plus hydrochlorothiazide versus amlodipine plus perindopril and versus perindopril plus hydrochlorothiazide in blacks residing in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Seven hundred two patients aged 30-79 years with a sitting systolic BP of 140 mm Hg and above, and less than 160 mm Hg on antihypertensive monotherapy, or sitting systolic BP of 150 mm Hg and above, and less than 180 mm Hg on no treatment, will be centrally randomized into any of the 3 arms (234 into each arm). The CREOLE study is taking place in 10 sites in SSA, and the primary outcome measure is change in ambulatory systolic BP from baseline to 6 months. The first patient was randomized in June 2017, and the trial will be concluded by 2019.

CONCLUSIONS

The CREOLE trial will provide unique information as to the most efficacious 2-drug combination in blacks residing in SSA and thereby inform the development of clinical guidelines for the treatment of hypertension in this subregion.

Prevalence of rheumatic heart disease in Zambian school children

BACKGROUND

The large global burden of rheumatic heart disease (RHD) has come to light in recent years following robust epidemiologic studies. As an operational research component of a broad program aimed at primary and secondary prevention of RHD, we sought to determine the current prevalence of RHD in the country's capital, Lusaka, using a modern imaging-based screening methodology. In addition, we wished to evaluate the practicality of training local radiographers in echocardiography screening methods.

METHODS

Echocardiography was conducted on a random sample of students in 15 schools utilizing a previously validated, abbreviated screening protocol. Through a task-shifting scheme, and in the spirit of capacity-building to enhance local diagnostic and research skills, general radiographers based at Lusaka University Teaching Hospital (UTH) were newly trained to use portable echocardiography devices. Students deemed as screen-positive were referred for comprehensive echocardiography and clinical examination at UTH. Cardiac abnormalities were classified according to standard World Heart Federation criteria.

RESULTS

Of 1102 students that were consented and screened, 53 students were referred for confirmatory echocardiography. Three students had definite RHD, 10 had borderline RHD, 29 were normal, and 11 students were lost to follow-up. The rates of definite, borderline, and total RHD were 2.7 per 1000, 9.1 per 1000, and 11.8 per 1000, respectively. Anterior mitral valve leaflet thickening and chordal thickening were the most common morphological defects. The pairwise kappa test showed fair agreement between the local radiographers and an echocardiographer quality assurance specialist.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of asymptomatic RHD in urban communities in Zambia is within the range of results reported in other sub-Saharan African countries using the WHF criteria. Task-shifting local radiographers to conduct echocardiography was feasible. The results of this study will be used to inform ongoing efforts in Zambia to control and eventually eliminate RHD.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The study was registered on clinicaltrials.gov ( #NCT02661763 ).

ANIMA: Association network integration for multiscale analysis

Contextual functional interpretation of -omics data derived from clinical samples is a classical and difficult problem in computational systems biology. The measurement of thousands of data points on single samples has become routine but relating ‘big data’ datasets to the complexities of human pathobiology is an area of ongoing research. Complicating this is the fact that many publicly available datasets use bulk transcriptomics data from complex tissues like blood. The most prevalent analytic approaches derive molecular ‘signatures’ of disease states or apply modular analysis frameworks to the data. Here we describe ANIMA (association network integration for multiscale analysis), a network-based data integration method using clinical phenotype and microarray data as inputs. ANIMA is implemented in R and Neo4j and runs in Docker containers. In short, the build algorithm iterates over one or more transcriptomics datasets to generate a large, multipartite association network by executing multiple independent analytic steps (differential expression, deconvolution, modular analysis based on co-expression, pathway analysis) and integrating the results. Once the network is built, it can be queried directly using Cypher (a graph query language), or by custom functions that communicate with the graph database via language-specific APIs. We developed a web application using Shiny, which provides fully interactive, multiscale views of the data. Using our approach, we show that we can reconstruct multiple features of disease states at various scales of organization, from transcript abundance patterns of individual genes through co-expression patterns of groups of genes to patterns of cellular behaviour in whole blood samples, both in single experiments as well in meta-analyses of multiple datasets.

A programme to increase appropriate usage of benzathine penicillin for management of streptococcal pharyngitis and rheumatic heart disease in Zambia

Rheumatic heart disease is highly prevalent and associated with substantial morbidity and mortality in many resourcepoor areas of the world, including sub-Saharan Africa.Primary and secondary prophylaxis with penicillin has beenshown to significantly improve outcomes and is recognisedto be the standard of care, with intra-muscular benzathine penicillin G recommended as the preferred agent by many technical experts. However, ensuring compliance with therapyhas proven to be challenging. As part of a public–privatepartnership initiative in Zambia, we conducted an educationaland access-to-medicine programme aimed at increasing appropriate use of benzathine penicillin for the preventionand management of rheumatic heart disease, according tonational guidelines. The programme was informed early onby identification of potential barriers to the administration ofinjectable penicillin, which included concern by health workers about allergic events. We describe this programme andreport initial signs of success, as indicated by increased useof benzathine penicillin. We propose that a similar approach may have benefits in rheumatic heart disease programmes in other endemic regions.

Quality of pilot trial abstracts in heart failure is suboptimal: a systematic survey

BACKGROUND

Pilot trials are miniature researches carried out with the sole aim of acting as the precursor for larger more definitive studies. Abstracts are used to summarize and introduce the findings to the reading audience. There is substantive empirical evidence showing that abstracts, despite their important roles, are not informative enough, lacking the necessary details. This systematic survey was designed to assess the quality of reporting of heart failure pilot trial abstracts. The quality of reporting was defined as the completeness of reporting based on adherence to the CONSORT extension for reporting of pilot trial abstracts. We also identified factors associated with reporting quality.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE (PubMed), Cochrane Controlled Trials Register, Scopus, and African-wide information databases for abstracts from heart failure pilot trials in humans published from 1 January 1990 to 30 November 2016. These were assessed to determine the extent of adherence to CONSORT extension checklist for reporting of abstracts of pilot trials. We screened identified studies for inclusion based on title and abstract. Data were independently extracted by two reviewers using the checklist. We used regression analysis to assess the association between completeness of reporting (measured as the number of items in the CONSORT extension checklist for reporting of abstracts in pilot trials contained in each abstract) and factors influencing the quality of the reports.

RESULTS

Two hundred and twenty-eight (228) articles were retrieved, of which 92 met the inclusion criteria. The mean CONSORT extension score was 8.3/16 (standard deviation 1.7); the least reported items were the source of funding (1% [1/92]), trial registration (13% [12/92]), randomization sequence (13% [12/92]), number randomized to each arm (16% [15/92]), and number analyzed in each arm (16% [15/92]). Multivariable regression analysis showed that pharmacological intervention pilot trials [incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 0.88; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.81-0.97] were significantly associated with better reporting. Other factors such as structured abstract (IRR = 1.10; 95% CI, 0.99-1.23) and CONSORT endorsement (IRR = 1.10; 95% CI, 0.99-1.23) only showed minimal relationship with better reporting quality.

CONCLUSION

The quality of reporting of abstracts of heart failure pilot trials was suboptimal. Pharmacological intervention was significantly associated with better reporting. These findings are consistent with previous research on reporting of trials.

Invasive and non-invasive group A β-haemolytic streptococcal infections in patients attending public sector facilities in South Africa: 2003–2015

Background: The burden of disease caused by group A streptococcus (GAS) in Africa is largely unknown. The aim of this study was to determine the incidence of invasive (iGAS) and non-invasive GAS (non-iGAS) infections in patients attending the public health sector of South Africa.Methods: iGAS and non-iGAS infection was defined as GAS isolated in culture from sterile and non-sterile sites respectively. Using annual census data, we calculated incidence rates (IR) of iGAS and non-iGAS infection by reviewing cases from the National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) database derived from the 9 provinces of South Africa between 2003 and 2015.Results: About 50% of the samples were collected in the Eastern Cape province which had data for all the years under observation; missing data from the other eight provinces precluded analysis of annual incidence. A multi-modal distribution of 5 256 GAS cases was observed in the Eastern Cape province. iGAS cases (n = 428) showed an annual mean IR of 0.48 (Range: 0.15–1.12) cases per 105 per year (py) with a marginal decrease from 2003 to 2015 (Rate Difference (RD), 0.23/105 py; 95% CI: 0.02–0.44/105 py). The mean annual IR for non-iGAS infection (n = 4828) was 5.48 (Range: 0.19–11.55) cases/105py; IR showed a decrease (RD, 11.36/105 py; 95% CI: 10.53–12.19/105 py). The Mann-Kendall test and the Theil-Sen estimator showed a decreasing trend in the incidence of non-iGAS infection (p = 0.002) over the study period.Conclusions: The incidence of non-iGAS infection in the Eastern Cape province of South Africa declined from 2003 to 2015. The trends from the Eastern Cape and incomplete data from other provinces indicate the need for a detailed prospective evaluation of GAS infection in South Africa to verify this trend and provide information for planning appropriate interventions.

Participation in research improves overall patient management: insights from the Global Rheumatic Heart Disease registry (REMEDY)

Background

Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) is a major public health problem in low– and middle–income countries (LMICs), with a paucity of high–quality trial data to improve patient outcomes. Investigators felt that involvement in a recent large, observational RHD study impacted positively on their practice, but this was poorly defined.

Aim

The purpose of this study was to document the experience of investigators and research team members from LMICs who participated in a prospective, multi–centre study, the global Rheumatic Heart Disease Registry (REMEDY), conducted in 25 centres in 14 countries from 2010 to 2012.

Methods

We conducted an online survey of site personnel to identify and quantify their experiences. Telephone interviews were conducted with a subset of respondents to gather additional qualitative data. We asked about their experiences, positive and negative, and about any changes in RHD management practices resulting from their participation in REMEDY as a registry site.

Results

The majority of respondents in both the survey and telephone interviews indicated that participation as a registry site improved their management of RHD patients. Administrative changes included increased attention to follow–up appointments and details in patient records. Clinical changes included increased use of penicillin prophylaxis, and more frequent INR monitoring and contraceptive counselling.

Conclusions

Our study demonstrates that participation in clinical research on RHD can have a positive impact on patient management. Furthermore, REMEDY has led to increased patient awareness and improved healthcare workers’ knowledge and efficiency in caring for RHD patients.

ANIMA: Association network integration for multiscale analysis

Contextual functional interpretation of -omics data derived from clinical samples is a classical and difficult problem in computational systems biology. The measurement of thousands of data points on single samples has become routine but relating ‘big data’ datasets to the complexities of human pathobiology is an area of ongoing research. Complicating this is the fact that many publically available datasets use bulk transcriptomics data from complex tissues like blood. The most prevalent analytic approaches derive molecular ‘signatures’ of disease states or apply modular analysis frameworks to the data. Here we describe ANIMA (association network integration for multiscale analysis), a network-based data integration method using clinical phenotype and microarray data as inputs. ANIMA is implemented in R and Neo4j and runs in Docker containers. In short, the build algorithm iterates over one or more transcriptomics datasets to generate a large, multipartite association network by executing multiple independent analytic steps (differential expression, deconvolution, modular analysis based on co-expression, pathway analysis) and integrating the results. Once the network is built, it can be queried directly using Cypher, or via custom functions that communicate with the graph database via language-specific APIs. We developed a web application using Shiny, which provides fully interactive, multiscale views of the data. Using our approach, we show that we can reconstruct multiple features of disease states at various scales of organization, from transcript abundance patterns of individual genes through co-expression patterns of groups of genes to patterns of cellular behaviour in whole blood samples, both in single experiments as well as in a meta-analysis of multiple datasets.

The association between HIV and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review

Background

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has confronted decades of the HIV epidemic with substantial improvements in access to life-saving antiretroviral therapy (ART). Now, with improved survival, people living with HIV (PLWH) are at increased risk for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), including atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD). We assessed the existing literature regarding the association of CVD outcomes and HIV in SSA.

Methods

We used the PRISMA guidelines to perform a systematic review of the published literature regarding the association of CVD and HIV in SSA with a focus on CVD surrogate and clinical outcomes in PLWH.

Results

From January 2000 until March 2017, 31 articles were published regarding CVD outcomes among PLWH in SSA. Data from surrogate CVD outcomes (n = 13) suggest an increased risk of CVD events among PLWH in SSA. Although acute coronary syndrome is reported infrequently in SSA among PLWH, limited data from five studies suggest extensive thrombus and hypercoagulability as contributing factors. Additional studies suggest an increased risk of stroke among PLWH (n = 13); however, most data are from immunosuppressed ART-naïve PLWH and thus are potentially confounded by the possibility of central nervous system infections.

Conclusions

Given ongoing gaps in our current understanding of CVD and other NCDs in PLWH in SSA, it is imperative to ascertain the burden of CVD outcomes, and to examine strategies for intervention and best practices to enhance the health of this vulnerable population.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-017-4940-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Quality of abstracts of pilot trials in heart failure: A protocol for a systematic survey

INTRODUCTION

Pilot trials are initial small-scale studies done to inform the design of larger trials. Their findings like other studies are usually disseminated as peer-reviewed journal articles. Abstracts are used to introduce the contents to readers, and give a general idea about the full reports and sometimes are the only source of information available to readers. Despite their importance, the contents of abstracts of trial reports are usually not informative enough and lack the essential details.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This is a protocol for a planned systematic survey with a primary aim of analyzing the reporting quality measured as the completeness of the reporting of pilot trial abstracts in heart failure. The secondary aim will be to explore factors associated with better reporting quality.Abstracts of heart failure pilot trials in humans (journal and conference abstracts) published in the English language from 1 January 1990 to 30 November 2016 will be assessed to determine the reporting quality, based on the CONSORT 2010 statement extension to randomized pilot and feasibility trials. All non-pilot/feasibility trials and non-human pilot trials will be excluded. We will search Medline (PUBMED), Cochrane controlled trials register, Scopus and African wide information databases for pilot trials in heart failure. Title and abstracts of identified studies will be screened for inclusion and data extracted independently by two reviewers in duplicate without using the full text. Reported and unreported items on the abstracts will be presented as frequencies and percentages, a descriptive analysis will be used to interpret the reporting quality and regression analysis used for characteristics associated with greater statistical reporting at 95% confidence interval.

REVIEW REGISTRATION NUMBER

PROSPERO CRD42016049911.

A systematic review of the efficacy and safety of intrapericardial fibrinolysis in patients with pericardial effusion

Pericardial effusion is the abnormal accumulation of fluid in the pericardial space. The complications of pericardial effusion can either be acute (e.g., cardiac tamponade) or chronic (e.g., constrictive pericarditis). We have conducted a systematic review of the scientific literature to evaluate the efficacy and safety of intrapericardial fibrinolysis in preventing complications of pericardial effusion. We searched for both published and unpublished studies. 29 studies, with a total of 109 patients were included in this review; 17 case reports, 11 case series, and one randomised controlled trial (RCT). All included studies had a high risk of bias. The most common causes of pericardial effusion were Staphylococcus aureus (12 studies with 23 cases) and Mycobacterium tuberculosis (2 studies with 19 cases). The most common fibrinolytic agents used were streptokinase (15 studies) and urokinase (5 studies). Intrapericardial fibrinolysis prevented complications in 94 (86.2%) patients. Non-fatal procedure-related complications were reported 21 (19.2%) patients. No patient died following intrapericardial fibrinolysis. There is very low certainty of the efficiency and safety of intrapericardial fibrinolysis in preventing the complications of pericardial effusion. High quality RCTs are required to address this question.

Effect of prednisolone on inflammatory markers in pericardial tuberculosis: A pilot study

BACKGROUND

Pericardial disorders are a common cause of heart disease, and the most common cause of pericarditis in developing countries is tuberculous (TB) pericarditis. It has been shown that prednisolone added to standard anti-TB therapy leads to a lower rate of constrictive pericarditis. We conducted a pilot study to evaluate the effect of adjunctive prednisolone treatment on the concentration of inflammatory markers in pericardial tuberculosis, in order to inform immunological mechanisms at the disease site.

METHODS

Pericardial fluid, plasma and saliva samples were collected from fourteen patients with pericardial tuberculosis, at multiple time points. Inflammatory markers were measured using multiplex luminex analysis and ELISA.

RESULTS

In samples from 14 patients we confirmed a strongly compartmentalized immune response at the disease site and found that prednisolone significantly reduced IL-6 concentrations in plasma by 8 hours of treatment, IL-1beta concentrations in saliva, as well as IL-8 concentrations in both pericardial fluid and saliva by 24 hours.

CONCLUSION

Monitoring the early effect of adjunctive immunotherapy in plasma or saliva is a possibility in pericarditis.

Equity in international health research collaborations in Africa: Perceptions and expectations of African researchers

Introduction and method

Africa is currently host to a number of international genomics research and biobanking consortia, each with a mandate to advance genomics research and biobanking in Africa. Whilst most of these consortia promise to transform the way international health research is done in Africa, few have articulated exactly how they propose to go about this. In this paper, we report on a qualitative interviewing study in which we involved 17 genomics researchers in Africa. We describe their perceptions and expectations of international genomics research and biobanking initiatives in Africa.

Results

All interviewees were of the view that externally funded genomics research and biobanking initiatives in Africa, have played a critical role in building capacity for genomics research and biobanking in Africa and in providing an opportunity for researchers in Africa to collaborate and network with other researchers. Whilst the opportunity to collaborate was seen as a benefit, some interviewees stressed the importance of recognizing that these collaborations carry mutual benefits for all partners, including their collaborators in HICs. They also voiced two major concerns of being part of these collaborative initiatives: the possibility of exploitation of African researchers and the non-sustainability of research capacity building efforts. As a way of minimising exploitation, researchers in Africa recommended that genuine efforts be made to create transparent and equitable international health research partnerships. They suggested that this could be achieved through,: having rules of engagement, enabling African researchers to contribute to the design and conduct of international health projects in Africa, and mutual and respectful exchange of experience and capacity between research collaborators. These were identified as hallmarks to equitable international health research collaborations in Africa.

Conclusion

Genomics research and biobanking initiatives in Africa such as H3Africa have gone some way in defining aspects of fair and equitable research collaborations in Africa. However, they will need to strive at achieving equitable health research collaborations if they truly aim at setting a gold standard for how international health research should be conducted in Africa.

Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016.

METHODS

We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone.

FINDINGS

Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016.

INTERPRETATION

Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institute on Aging and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health.

Interventions for treating tuberculous pericarditis

BACKGROUND

Tuberculous pericarditis can impair the heart's function and cause death; long term, it can cause the membrane to fibrose and constrict causing heart failure. In addition to antituberculous chemotherapy, treatments include corticosteroids, drainage, and surgery.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects of treatments for tuberculous pericarditis.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Infectious Diseases Group Specialized Register (27 March 2017); the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), published in the Cochrane Library (2017, Issue 2); MEDLINE (1966 to 27 March 2017); Embase (1974 to 27 March 2017); and LILACS (1982 to 27 March 2017). In addition we searched the metaRegister of Controlled Trials (mRCT) and the World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) search portal using 'tuberculosis' and 'pericard*' as search terms on 27 March 2017. We searched ClinicalTrials.gov and contacted researchers in the field of tuberculous pericarditis. This is a new version of the original 2002 review.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and quasi-RCTs.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently screened search outputs, evaluated study eligibility, assessed risk of bias, and extracted data; and we resolved any discrepancies by discussion and consensus. One trial assessed the effects of both corticosteroid and Mycobacterium indicus pranii treatment in a two-by-two factorial design; we excluded data from the group that received both interventions. We conducted fixed-effect meta-analysis and assessed the certainty of the evidence using the GRADE approach.

MAIN RESULTS

Seven trials met the inclusion criteria; all were from sub-Saharan Africa and included 1959 participants, with 1051/1959 (54%) HIV-positive. All trials evaluated corticosteroids and one each evaluated colchicine, M. indicus pranii immunotherapy, and open surgical drainage. Four trials (1841 participants) were at low risk of bias, and three trials (118 participants) were at high risk of bias.In people who are not infected with HIV, corticosteroids may reduce deaths from all causes (risk ratio (RR) 0.80, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.59 to 1.09; 660 participants, 4 trials, low certainty evidence) and the need for repeat pericardiocentesis (RR 0.85, 95% CI 0.70 to 1.04; 492 participants, 2 trials, low certainty evidence). Corticosteroids probably reduce deaths from pericarditis (RR 0.39, 95% CI 0.19 to 0.80; 660 participants, 4 trials, moderate certainty evidence). However, we do not know whether or not corticosteroids have an effect on constriction or cancer among HIV-negative people (very low certainty evidence).In people living with HIV, only 19.9% (203/1959) were on antiretroviral drugs. Corticosteroids may reduce constriction (RR 0.55, 0.26 to 1.16; 575 participants, 3 trials, low certainty evidence). It is uncertain whether corticosteroids have an effect on all-cause death or cancer (very low certainty evidence); and may have little or no effect on repeat pericardiocentesis (RR 1.02, 0.89 to 1.18; 517 participants, 2 trials, low certainty evidence).For colchicine among people living with HIV, we found one small trial (33 participants) which had insufficient data to make any conclusions about any effects on death or constrictive pericarditis.Irrespective of HIV status, due to very low certainty evidence from one trial, it is uncertain whether adding M. indicus pranii immunotherapy to antituberculous drugs has an effect on any outcome.Open surgical drainage for effusion may reduce repeat pericardiocentesis In HIV-negative people (RR 0.23, 95% CI 0.07 to 0.76; 122 participants, 1 trial, low certainty evidence) but may make little or no difference to other outcomes. We did not find an eligible trial that assessed the effects of open surgical drainage in people living with HIV.The review authors found no eligible trials that examined the length of antituberculous treatment needed nor the effects of other adjunctive treatments for tuberculous pericarditis.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

For HIV-negative patients, corticosteroids may reduce death. For HIV-positive patients not on antiretroviral drugs, corticosteroids may reduce constriction. For HIV-positive patients with good antiretroviral drug viral suppression, clinicians may consider the results from HIV-negative patients more relevant.Further research may help evaluate percutaneous drainage of the pericardium under local anaesthesia, the timing of pericardiectomy in tuberculous constrictive pericarditis, and new antibiotic regimens.

Global, Regional, and National Burden of Rheumatic Heart Disease, 1990-2015

BACKGROUND

Rheumatic heart disease remains an important preventable cause of cardiovascular death and disability, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries. We estimated global, regional, and national trends in the prevalence of and mortality due to rheumatic heart disease as part of the 2015 Global Burden of Disease study.

METHODS

We systematically reviewed data on fatal and nonfatal rheumatic heart disease for the period from 1990 through 2015. Two Global Burden of Disease analytic tools, the Cause of Death Ensemble model and DisMod-MR 2.1, were used to produce estimates of mortality and prevalence, including estimates of uncertainty.

RESULTS

We estimated that there were 319,400 (95% uncertainty interval, 297,300 to 337,300) deaths due to rheumatic heart disease in 2015. Global age-standardized mortality due to rheumatic heart disease decreased by 47.8% (95% uncertainty interval, 44.7 to 50.9) from 1990 to 2015, but large differences were observed across regions. In 2015, the highest age-standardized mortality due to and prevalence of rheumatic heart disease were observed in Oceania, South Asia, and central sub-Saharan Africa. We estimated that in 2015 there were 33.4 million (95% uncertainty interval, 29.7 million to 43.1 million) cases of rheumatic heart disease and 10.5 million (95% uncertainty interval, 9.6 million to 11.5 million) disability-adjusted life-years due to rheumatic heart disease globally.

CONCLUSIONS

We estimated the global disease prevalence of and mortality due to rheumatic heart disease over a 25-year period. The health-related burden of rheumatic heart disease has declined worldwide, but high rates of disease persist in some of the poorest regions in the world. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the Medtronic Foundation.).

Contrast-enhanced cardiac Magnetic Resonance: distinction between cardiac sarcoidosis and infarction scar

Objectives: To review the value of delayed contrast-enhanced cardiac magnetic resonance (CECMR) in differentiating patients with cardiac sarcoidosis (CS) from those with coronary artery disease and recent myocardial infarctions. Background: Late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) accurately delineates myocardial necrosis or fibrosis. The pattern of LGE in ischemic and non-ischemic myocardial disease is different, and might be helpful in distinguishing CS from ischemic disease. Methods: The CECMR studies of 30 patients with CS were compared to those performed in 30 consecutive infarct patients, who had been managed with primary coronary interventions, and 10 healthy controls. Two experienced blinded observers classified patients by assessing the distribution of LGE. Results: LV LGE was present in 29/30 CS (mean 3.8 segments, range 0-12), all infarct (mean 4.3 segments, range 0-9), and none of the patients in the control group. The amount of LV LGE did not differ significantly between CS and infarct patients (19 ± 11% and 19 ± 12%, P= 0.8). The CS group exhibited a predominantly patchy, 3 layer LGE (P = 0.01), whereas confluent transmural LGE (P = 0.04) with a vascular distribution (P < 0.001) was prevalent in the infarct group. Significantly more RV LGE (P = 0.01) and dilation (P = 0.02) were found in the CS group. The two observers classified patients correctly as CS in 72% and 83% of cases, as ischemic in nature in 77% and 80% of cases, and as normal in 90% and 100% respectively. Conclusions: Gadolinium CMR was helpful in differentiating patients with CS from patients with ischemic heart disease and previous myocardial infarctions. In a subgroup of ischemic patients the pattern of LGE was atypical, and suggestive of non-ischemic etiology. (Sarcoidosis Vasc Diffuse Lung Dis 2017; 34: 307-314).

Identification of Cadherin 2 ( CDH2 ) Mutations in Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy

Background—

Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) is a genetically heterogeneous condition caused by mutations in genes encoding desmosomal proteins in up to 60% of cases. The 40% of genotype-negative cases point to the need of identifying novel genetic substrates by studying genotype-negative ARVC families.

Methods and Results—

Whole exome sequencing was performed on 2 cousins with ARVC. Validation of 13 heterozygous variants that survived internal quality and frequency filters was performed by Sanger sequencing. These variants were also genotyped in all family members to establish genotype–phenotype cosegregation. High-resolution melting analysis followed by Sanger sequencing was used to screen for mutations in cadherin 2 ( CDH2 ) gene in unrelated genotype-negative patients with ARVC. In a 3-generation family, we identified by whole exome sequencing a novel mutation in CDH2 (c.686A>C, p.Gln229Pro) that cosegregated with ARVC in affected family members. The CDH2 c.686A>C variant was not present in >200 000 chromosomes available through public databases, which changes a conserved amino acid of cadherin 2 protein and is supported as the causal mutation by parametric linkage analysis. We subsequently screened 73 genotype-negative ARVC probands tested previously for mutations in known ARVC genes and found an additional likely pathogenic variant in CDH2 (c.1219G>A, p.Asp407Asn). CDH2 encodes cadherin 2 (also known as N-cadherin), a protein that plays a vital role in cell adhesion, making it a biologically plausible candidate gene in ARVC pathogenesis.

Conclusions—

These data implicate CDH2 mutations as novel genetic causes of ARVC and contribute to a more complete identification of disease genes involved in cardiomyopathy.

Echocardiographic predictors of outcome in acute heart failure patients in sub-Saharan Africa: insights from THESUS-HF

Background:

The role of echocardiography in the risk stratification of acute heart failure (HF) is unknown. Some small studies and retrospective analyses have found little change in echocardiographic variables during admission for acute HF and some echocardiographic parameters were not found to be associated with outcomes. It is unknown which echocardiographic variables will predict outcomes in sub-Saharan African patients admitted with acute HF. Using echocardiograms, this study aimed to determine the predictors of death and re-admissions within 60 days and deaths up to 180 days in patients with acute heart failure.

Methods:

Out of the 1 006 patients in the THESUS-HF registry, 954 had had an echocardiogram performed within a few weeks of admission. Echocardiographic measurements were performed according to the American Society of Echocardiography guidelines. We examined the associations between each echocardiographic predictor and outcome using regression models.

Results:

Heart rate and left atrial size predicted death within 60 days or re-admission. Heart rate, left ventricular posterior wall thickness in diastole (PWTd), and presence of aortic stenosis were associated with the risk of death within 180 days. PTWd added to clinical variables in predicting 180-day mortality rates.

Conclusions:

Echocardiographic variables, especially those of left ventricular size and function, were not found to have additional predictive value in patients admitted for acute HF. Left atrial size, aortic stenosis, heart rate and measures of hypertrophy (LV PWTd) had some predictive value, suggesting the importance of early treatment of hypertension and severe valvular heart disease.

Clinical features, spectrum of causal genetic mutations and outcome of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy in South Africans

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the clinical characteristics, spectrum of causal genetic mutations and outcome of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) in Africans. The objective of this study was to delineate the clinical and genetic features and outcome of HCM in African patients.

METHODS

Information on clinical presentation, electrocardiographic and echocardiographic findings, and outcome of cases with HCM was collected from the Cardiac Clinic at Groote Schuur Hospital over a mean duration of follow up of 9.1 ± 3.4 years. Genomic DNA was screened for mutations in 15 genes that cause HCM, i.e. cardiac myosin-binding protein C (MYBPC3), cardiac β-myosin heavy chain (MYH7), cardiac troponin T2 (TNNT2), cardiac troponin I (TNNI3), regulatory light chain of myosin (MYL2), essential light chain of myosin (MYL3), tropomyosin 1 (TPM1), phospholamban (PLN), α-actin (ACTC1), cysteine and glycine-rich protein 3 (CSRP3), AMP-activated protein kinase (PRKAG2), α-galactosidase (GLA), four-and-a-half LIM domains 1 (FHL1), lamin A/C (LMNA) and lysosome-associated membrane protein 2 (LAMP2). Survival and its predictors were analysed using the Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards regression methods, respectively.

RESULTS

Forty-three consecutive patients [mean age 38.5 ± 14.3 years; 25 (58.1%) male; and 13 (30.2%) black African] were prospectively enrolled in the study from January 1996 to December 2012. Clinical presentation was similar to that reported in other studies. The South African founder mutations that cause HCM were not found in the 42 probands. Ten of 35 index cases (28.6%) tested for mutations in 15 genes had disease-causing mutations in MYH7 (six cases or 60%) and MYBPC3 (four cases or 40%). No disease-causing mutation was found in the other 13 genes screened. The annual mortality rate was 2.9% per annum and overall survival was 74% at 10 years, which was similar to the general South African population. Cox's proportional hazards regression showed that survival was predicted by New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class at last visit (p equals; 0.026), but not by the presence of a disease-causing mutation (p = 0.474).

CONCLUSIONS

Comprehensive genetic screening was associated with a 29% yield of causal genetic mutations in South African HCM cases, all in MYH7 and MBPC3 genes. A quarter of the patients had died after a decade of follow up, with NYHA functional class serving as a predictor of survival.

Beta-blockers for hypertension

BACKGROUND

Beta-blockers refer to a mixed group of drugs with diverse pharmacodynamic and pharmacokinetic properties. They have shown long-term beneficial effects on mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD) when used in people with heart failure or acute myocardial infarction. Beta-blockers were thought to have similar beneficial effects when used as first-line therapy for hypertension. However, the benefit of beta-blockers as first-line therapy for hypertension without compelling indications is controversial. This review is an update of a Cochrane Review initially published in 2007 and updated in 2012.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects of beta-blockers on morbidity and mortality endpoints in adults with hypertension.

SEARCH METHODS

The Cochrane Hypertension Information Specialist searched the following databases for randomized controlled trials up to June 2016: the Cochrane Hypertension Specialised Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (2016, Issue 6), MEDLINE (from 1946), Embase (from 1974), and ClinicalTrials.gov. We checked reference lists of relevant reviews, and reference lists of studies potentially eligible for inclusion in this review, and also searched the the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform on 06 July 2015.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of at least one year of duration, which assessed the effects of beta-blockers compared to placebo or other drugs, as first-line therapy for hypertension, on mortality and morbidity in adults.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We selected studies and extracted data in duplicate, resolving discrepancies by consensus. We expressed study results as risk ratios (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) and conducted fixed-effect or random-effects meta-analyses, as appropriate. We also used GRADE to assess the certainty of the evidence. GRADE classifies the certainty of evidence as high (if we are confident that the true effect lies close to that of the estimate of effect), moderate (if the true effect is likely to be close to the estimate of effect), low (if the true effect may be substantially different from the estimate of effect), and very low (if we are very uncertain about the estimate of effect).

MAIN RESULTS

Thirteen RCTs met inclusion criteria. They compared beta-blockers to placebo (4 RCTs, 23,613 participants), diuretics (5 RCTs, 18,241 participants), calcium-channel blockers (CCBs: 4 RCTs, 44,825 participants), and renin-angiotensin system (RAS) inhibitors (3 RCTs, 10,828 participants). These RCTs were conducted between the 1970s and 2000s and most of them had a high risk of bias resulting from limitations in study design, conduct, and data analysis. There were 40,245 participants taking beta-blockers, three-quarters of them taking atenolol. We found no outcome trials involving the newer vasodilating beta-blockers (e.g. nebivolol).There was no difference in all-cause mortality between beta-blockers and placebo (RR 0.99, 95% CI 0.88 to 1.11), diuretics or RAS inhibitors, but it was higher for beta-blockers compared to CCBs (RR 1.07, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.14). The evidence on mortality was of moderate-certainty for all comparisons.Total CVD was lower for beta-blockers compared to placebo (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.79 to 0.97; low-certainty evidence), a reflection of the decrease in stroke (RR 0.80, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.96; low-certainty evidence) since there was no difference in coronary heart disease (CHD: RR 0.93, 95% CI 0.81 to 1.07; moderate-certainty evidence). The effect of beta-blockers on CVD was worse than that of CCBs (RR 1.18, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.29; moderate-certainty evidence), but was not different from that of diuretics (moderate-certainty) or RAS inhibitors (low-certainty). In addition, there was an increase in stroke in beta-blockers compared to CCBs (RR 1.24, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.40; moderate-certainty evidence) and RAS inhibitors (RR 1.30, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.53; moderate-certainty evidence). However, there was little or no difference in CHD between beta-blockers and diuretics (low-certainty evidence), CCBs (moderate-certainty evidence) or RAS inhibitors (low-certainty evidence). In the single trial involving participants aged 65 years and older, atenolol was associated with an increased CHD incidence compared to diuretics (RR 1.63, 95% CI 1.15 to 2.32). Participants taking beta-blockers were more likely to discontinue treatment due to adverse events than participants taking RAS inhibitors (RR 1.41, 95% CI 1.29 to 1.54; moderate-certainty evidence), but there was little or no difference with placebo, diuretics or CCBs (low-certainty evidence).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Most outcome RCTs on beta-blockers as initial therapy for hypertension have high risk of bias. Atenolol was the beta-blocker most used. Current evidence suggests that initiating treatment of hypertension with beta-blockers leads to modest CVD reductions and little or no effects on mortality. These beta-blocker effects are inferior to those of other antihypertensive drugs. Further research should be of high quality and should explore whether there are differences between different subtypes of beta-blockers or whether beta-blockers have differential effects on younger and older people.

Effect of new tuberculosis diagnostic technologies on community-based intensified case finding: a multicentre randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Inadequate case detection results in high levels of undiagnosed tuberculosis in sub-Saharan Africa. Data for the effect of new diagnostic tools when used for community-based intensified case finding are not available, so we investigated whether the use of sputum Xpert-MTB/RIF and the Determine TB LAM urine test in two African communities could be effective.

METHODS

In a pragmatic, randomised, parallel-group trial with individual randomisation stratified by country, we compared sputum Xpert-MTB/RIF, and if HIV-infected, the Determine TB LAM urine test (novel diagnostic group), with laboratory-based sputum smear microscopy (routine diagnostic group) for intensified case finding in communities with high tuberculosis and HIV prevalence in Cape Town, South Africa, and Harare, Zimbabwe. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to these groups with computer-generated allocation lists, using culture as the reference standard. In Cape Town, participants were randomised and tested at an Xpert-equipped mobile van, while in Harare, participants were driven to a local clinic where the same diagnostic tests were done. The primary endpoint was the proportion of culture-positive tuberculosis cases initiating tuberculosis treatment in each study group at 60 days. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01990274.

FINDINGS

Between Oct 18, 2013, and March 31, 2015, 2261 individuals were screened and 875 (39%) of these met the criteria for diagnostic testing. 439 participants were randomly assigned to the novel group and 436 to the routine group. 74 (9%) of 875 participants had confirmed tuberculosis. If late culture-based treatment initiation was excluded, more patients with culture-positive tuberculosis were initiated on treatment in the novel group at 60 days (36 [86%] of 42 in the novel group vs 18 [56%] of 32 in the routine group). Thus the difference in the proportion initiating treatment between groups was 29% (95% CI 9-50, p=0·0047) and 53% more patients initiated therapy in the novel diagnostic group than in the routine diagnostic group. One culture-positive patient was treated based only on a positive LAM test.

INTERPRETATION

Compared with traditional tools, Xpert-MTB/RIF for community-based intensified case finding in HIV and tuberculosis-endemic settings increased the proportion of patients initiating treatment. By contrast, urine LAM testing was not found to be useful for intensive case finding in this setting.

FUNDING

European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership and South African Medical Research Council.

Clinical Outcomes in 3343 Children and Adults With Rheumatic Heart Disease From 14 Low- and Middle-Income Countries

Background:

There are few contemporary data on the mortality and morbidity associated with rheumatic heart disease or information on their predictors. We report the 2-year follow-up of individuals with rheumatic heart disease from 14 low- and middle-income countries in Africa and Asia.

Methods:

Between January 2010 and November 2012, we enrolled 3343 patients from 25 centers in 14 countries and followed them for 2 years to assess mortality, congestive heart failure, stroke or transient ischemic attack, recurrent acute rheumatic fever, and infective endocarditis.

Results:

Vital status at 24 months was known for 2960 (88.5%) patients. Two-thirds were female. Although patients were young (median age, 28 years; interquartile range, 18–40), the 2-year case fatality rate was high (500 deaths, 16.9%). Mortality rate was 116.3/1000 patient-years in the first year and 65.4/1000 patient-years in the second year. Median age at death was 28.7 years. Independent predictors of death were severe valve disease (hazard ratio [HR], 2.36; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.80–3.11), congestive heart failure (HR, 2.16; 95% CI, 1.70–2.72), New York Heart Association functional class III/IV (HR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.32–2.10), atrial fibrillation (HR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.10–1.78), and older age (HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01–1.02 per year increase) at enrollment. Postprimary education (HR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.54–0.85) and female sex (HR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.52–0.80) were associated with lower risk of death. Two hundred and four (6.9%) patients had new congestive heart failure (incidence, 38.42/1000 patient-years), 46 (1.6%) had a stroke or transient ischemic attack (8.45/1000 patient-years), 19 (0.6%) had recurrent acute rheumatic fever (3.49/1000 patient-years), and 20 (0.7%) had infective endocarditis (3.65/1000 patient-years). Previous stroke and older age were independent predictors of stroke/transient ischemic attack or systemic embolism. Patients from low- and lower-middle–income countries had significantly higher age- and sex-adjusted mortality than patients from upper-middle–income countries. Valve surgery was significantly more common in upper-middle–income than in lower-middle– or low-income countries.

Conclusions:

Patients with clinical rheumatic heart disease have high mortality and morbidity despite being young; those from low- and lower-middle–income countries had a poorer prognosis associated with advanced disease and low education. Programs focused on early detection and the treatment of clinical rheumatic heart disease are required to improve outcomes.

Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

In September, 2015, the UN General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs specify 17 universal goals, 169 targets, and 230 indicators leading up to 2030. We provide an analysis of 33 health-related SDG indicators based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015).

METHODS

We applied statistical methods to systematically compiled data to estimate the performance of 33 health-related SDG indicators for 188 countries from 1990 to 2015. We rescaled each indicator on a scale from 0 (worst observed value between 1990 and 2015) to 100 (best observed). Indices representing all 33 health-related SDG indicators (health-related SDG index), health-related SDG indicators included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG index), and health-related indicators not included in the MDGs (non-MDG index) were computed as the geometric mean of the rescaled indicators by SDG target. We used spline regressions to examine the relations between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI, a summary measure based on average income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate) and each of the health-related SDG indicators and indices.

FINDINGS

In 2015, the median health-related SDG index was 59·3 (95% uncertainty interval 56·8-61·8) and varied widely by country, ranging from 85·5 (84·2-86·5) in Iceland to 20·4 (15·4-24·9) in Central African Republic. SDI was a good predictor of the health-related SDG index (r2=0·88) and the MDG index (r2=0·92), whereas the non-MDG index had a weaker relation with SDI (r2=0·79). Between 2000 and 2015, the health-related SDG index improved by a median of 7·9 (IQR 5·0-10·4), and gains on the MDG index (a median change of 10·0 [6·7-13·1]) exceeded that of the non-MDG index (a median change of 5·5 [2·1-8·9]). Since 2000, pronounced progress occurred for indicators such as met need with modern contraception, under-5 mortality, and neonatal mortality, as well as the indicator for universal health coverage tracer interventions. Moderate improvements were found for indicators such as HIV and tuberculosis incidence, minimal changes for hepatitis B incidence took place, and childhood overweight considerably worsened.

INTERPRETATION

GBD provides an independent, comparable avenue for monitoring progress towards the health-related SDGs. Our analysis not only highlights the importance of income, education, and fertility as drivers of health improvement but also emphasises that investments in these areas alone will not be sufficient. Although considerable progress on the health-related MDG indicators has been made, these gains will need to be sustained and, in many cases, accelerated to achieve the ambitious SDG targets. The minimal improvement in or worsening of health-related indicators beyond the MDGs highlight the need for additional resources to effectively address the expanded scope of the health-related SDGs.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.