Deep Convolutional Neural Networks With Ensemble Learning and Generative Adversarial Networks for Alzheimer's Disease Image Data Classification

Recent advancements in deep learning (DL) have made possible new methodologies for analyzing massive datasets with intriguing implications in healthcare. Convolutional neural networks (CNN), which have proven to be successful supervised algorithms for classifying imaging data, are of particular interest in the neuroscience community for their utility in the classification of Alzheimer's disease (AD). AD is the leading cause of dementia in the aging population. There remains a critical unmet need for early detection of AD pathogenesis based on non-invasive neuroimaging techniques, such as magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and positron emission tomography (PET). In this comprehensive review, we explore potential interdisciplinary approaches for early detection and provide insight into recent advances on AD classification using 3D CNN architectures for multi-modal PET/MRI data. We also consider the application of generative adversarial networks (GANs) to overcome pitfalls associated with limited data. Finally, we discuss increasing the robustness of CNNs by combining them with ensemble learning (EL).

A deleterious mutation in the ALMS1 gene in a naturally occurring model of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy in the Sphynx cat

BACKGROUND

Familial hypertrophic cardiomyopathy is a common inherited cardiovascular disorder in people. Many causal mutations have been identified, but about 40% of cases do not have a known causative mutation. Mutations in the ALMS1 gene are associated with the development of Alstrom syndrome, a multisystem familial disease that can include cardiomyopathy (dilated, restrictive). Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy has not been described. The ALMS1 gene is a large gene that encodes for a ubiquitously expressed protein. The function of the protein is not well understood although it is believed to be associated with energy metabolism and homeostasis, cell differentiation and cell cycle control. The ALMS1 protein has also been shown to be involved in the regulation of cell cycle proliferation in perinatal cardiomyocytes. Although cardiomyocyte cell division and replication in mammals generally declines soon after birth, inhibition of ALMS1 expression in mice lead to increased cardiomyocyte proliferation, and deficiency of Alstrom protein has been suggested to impair post-natal cardiomyocyte cell cycle arrest. Here we describe the association of familial hypertrophic cardiomyopathy in Sphynx cats with a novel ALMS1 mutation.

RESULTS

A G/C variant was identified in exon 12 (human exon 13) of the ALMS1 gene in affected cats and was positively associated with the presence of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy in the feline population (p < 0.0001). The variant was predicted to change a highly conserved nonpolar Glycine to a positively charged Arginine. This was predicted to be a deleterious change by three in silico programs. Protein prediction programs indicated that the variant changed the protein structure in this region from a coil to a helix. Light microscopy findings included myofiber disarray with interstitial fibrosis with significantly more nuclear proliferative activity in the affected cats than controls (p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrates a novel form of cardiomyopathy associated with ALMS1 in the cat. Familial hypertrophic cardiomyopathy is a disease of genetic heterogeneity; many of the known causative genes encoding for sarcomeric proteins. Our findings suggest that variants in genes involved with cardiac development and cell regulation, like the ALMS1 gene, may deserve further consideration for association with familial hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

A deleterious mutation in the ALMS1 gene in a naturally occurring model of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy in the Sphynx cat

Background

Familial hypertrophic cardiomyopathy is a common inherited cardiovascular disorder in people. Many causal mutations have been identified, but about 40% of cases do not have a known causative mutation. Mutations in the ALMS1 gene are associated with the development of Alstrom syndrome, a multisystem familial disease that can include cardiomyopathy (dilated, restrictive). Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy has not been described. The ALMS1 gene is a large gene that encodes for a ubiquitously expressed protein. The function of the protein is not well understood although it is believed to be associated with energy metabolism and homeostasis, cell differentiation and cell cycle control. The ALMS1 protein has also been shown to be involved in the regulation of cell cycle proliferation in perinatal cardiomyocytes. Although cardiomyocyte cell division and replication in mammals generally declines soon after birth, inhibition of ALMS1 expression in mice lead to increased cardiomyocyte proliferation, and deficiency of Alstrom protein has been suggested to impair post-natal cardiomyocyte cell cycle arrest. Here we describe the association of familial hypertrophic cardiomyopathy in Sphynx cats with a novel ALMS1 mutation.

Results

A G/C variant was identified in exon 12 (human exon 13) of the ALMS1 gene in affected cats and was positively associated with the presence of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy in the feline population (p < 0.0001). The variant was predicted to change a highly conserved nonpolar Glycine to a positively charged Arginine. This was predicted to be a deleterious change by three in silico programs. Protein prediction programs indicated that the variant changed the protein structure in this region from a coil to a helix. Light microscopy findings included myofiber disarray with interstitial fibrosis with significantly more nuclear proliferative activity in the affected cats than controls (p < 0.0001).

Conclusion

This study demonstrates a novel form of cardiomyopathy associated with ALMS1 in the cat. Familial hypertrophic cardiomyopathy is a disease of genetic heterogeneity; many of the known causative genes encoding for sarcomeric proteins. Our findings suggest that variants in genes involved with cardiac development and cell regulation, like the ALMS1 gene, may deserve further consideration for association with familial hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

Isoniazid preventive therapy plus antiretroviral therapy for the prevention of tuberculosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis of individual participant data

BACKGROUND

Isoniazid preventive therapy prevents active tuberculosis in people with HIV, but previous studies have found no evidence of benefit in people with HIV who had a negative tuberculin skin test, and a non-significant effect on mortality. We aimed to estimate the effect of isoniazid preventive therapy given with antiretroviral therapy (ART) for the prevention of tuberculosis and death among people with HIV across population subgroups.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Embase, the Cochrane database, and conference abstracts from database inception to Jan 15, 2019, to identify potentially eligible randomised trials. Eligible studies were trials that enrolled HIV-positive adults (age ≥15 years) taking ART who were randomly assigned to either daily isoniazid preventive therapy plus ART or ART alone and followed up longitudinally for outcomes of incident tuberculosis and mortality. We approached all authors of included trials and requested individual participant data: coprimary outcomes were relative risk of incident tuberculosis and all-cause mortality. We did a single-stage meta-analysis of individual participant data using stratified Cox-proportional hazards models. We did prespecified subgroup analyses by sex, CD4 cell count, and evidence of immune sensitisation to tuberculosis (indicated by tuberculin skin test or interferon-γ release assays [IGRAs]). We also assessed the relative risk of liver injury in an additional prespecified analysis. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42019121400.

FINDINGS

Of 838 records, we included three trials with data for 2611 participants and 8584·8 person-years of follow-up for the outcome of incident tuberculosis, and a subset of 2362 participants with 8631·6 person-years of follow-up for the coprimary outcome of all-cause mortality. Risk for tuberculosis was lower in participants given isoniazid preventive therapy and ART than participants given ART alone (hazard ratio [HR] 0·68, 95% CI 0·49-0·95, p=0·02). Risk of all-cause mortality was lower in participants given isoniazid preventive therapy and ART than participants given ART alone, but this difference was non-significant (HR 0·69, 95% CI 0·43-1·10, p=0·12). Participants with baseline CD4 counts of less than 500 cells per μL had increased risk of tuberculosis, but there was no significant difference in the benefit of isoniazid preventive therapy with ART by sex, baseline CD4 count, or results of tuberculin skin test or IGRAs. 65 (2·5%) of 2611 participants had raised alanine aminotransferase, but data were insufficient to calculate an HR.

INTERPRETATION

Isoniazid preventive therapy with ART prevents tuberculosis across demographic and HIV-specific and tuberculosis-specific subgroups, which supports efforts to further increase use of isoniazid preventive therapy with ART broadly among people living with HIV.

FUNDING

National Institutes of Health and National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

The scale and dynamics of COVID-19 epidemics across Europe

The number of COVID-19 deaths reported from European countries has varied more than 100-fold. In terms of coronavirus transmission, the relatively low death rates in some countries could be due to low intrinsic (e.g. low population density) or imposed contact rates (e.g. non-pharmaceutical interventions) among individuals, or because fewer people were exposed or susceptible to infection (e.g. smaller populations). Here, we develop a flexible empirical model (skew-logistic) to distinguish among these possibilities. We find that countries reporting fewer deaths did not generally have intrinsically lower rates of transmission and epidemic growth, and flatter epidemic curves. Rather, countries with fewer deaths locked down earlier, had shorter epidemics that peaked sooner and smaller populations. Consequently, as lockdowns were eased, we expected, and duly observed, a resurgence of COVID-19 across Europe.

HIV control strategies for sex worker-client contact networks

Controlling the spread of HIV among hidden, high-risk populations such as survival sex workers and their clients is becoming increasingly important in the ongoing fight against HIV/AIDS. Several sociological and structural factors render general control strategies ineffective in these settings; instead, focused prevention, testing and treatment strategies which take into account the nature of survival sex work are required. Using a dynamic bipartite network model of sexual contacts, we investigate the optimal distribution of treatment and preventative resources among sex workers and their clients; specifically, we consider control strategies that randomly allocate antiretroviral therapy and pre-exposure prophylaxis within each subpopulation separately. Motivated by historical data from a South African mining community, three main asymmetries between sex workers and clients are considered in our model: relative population sizes, migration rates and partner distributions. We find that preventative interventions targeted at female sex workers are the lowest cost strategies for reducing HIV prevalence, since the sex workers form a smaller population and have, on average, more sexual contacts. However, the high migration rate among survival sex workers limits the extent to which prevalence can be reduced using this strategy. To achieve a further reduction in HIV prevalence, testing and treatment in the client population cannot be ignored.

Initial results from the New Horizons exploration of 2014 MU69, a small Kuiper Belt object

The Kuiper Belt is a distant region of the outer Solar System. On 1 January 2019, the New Horizons spacecraft flew close to (486958) 2014 MU₆₉, a cold classical Kuiper Belt object approximately 30 kilometers in diameter. Such objects have never been substantially heated by the Sun and are therefore well preserved since their formation. We describe initial results from these encounter observations. MU₆₉ is a bilobed contact binary with a flattened shape, discrete geological units, and noticeable albedo heterogeneity. However, there is little surface color or compositional heterogeneity. No evidence for satellites, rings or other dust structures, a gas coma, or solar wind interactions was detected. MU₆₉'s origin appears consistent with pebble cloud collapse followed by a low-velocity merger of its two lobes.

Tuberculosis decline in populations affected by HIV: a retrospective study of 12 countries in the WHO African Region

Objective

To investigate which of the World Health Organization recommended methods for tuberculosis control have had the greatest effect on case incidence in 12 countries in the World Health Organization (WHO) African Region that carry high burdens of tuberculosis linked to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection.

Methods

We obtained epidemiological surveillance, survey and treatment data on HIV and tuberculosis for the years 2003 to 2016. We used statistical models to examine the effects of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and isoniazid preventive therapy in reducing the incidence of tuberculosis among people living with HIV. We also investigated the role of tuberculosis case detection and treatment in preventing Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission and consequently reducing tuberculosis incidence.

Findings

Between 2003 and 2016, ART provision was associated with the decline of tuberculosis in each country, and with differences in tuberculosis decline between countries. Inferring that ART was a cause of tuberculosis decline, ART prevented 1.88 million (95% confidence interval, CI: 1.65 to 2.11) tuberculosis cases in people living with HIV, or 15.7% (95% CI: 13.8 to 17.6) of the 11.96 million HIV-positive tuberculosis cases expected. Population coverage of isoniazid preventive therapy was too low (average 1.0% of persons eligible) to have a major effect on tuberculosis decline, and improvements in tuberculosis detection and treatment were either weakly associated or not significantly associated with tuberculosis decline.

Conclusion

ART provision is associated with tuberculosis decline in these 12 countries. ART should remain central to tuberculosis control where rates of tuberculosis–HIV coinfection are high, but renewed efforts to treat tuberculosis are needed.

Epidemiological metrics and benchmarks for a transition in the HIV epidemic

Peter Godfrey-Faussett and colleagues present six epidemiological metrics for tracking progress in reducing the public health threat of HIV.

High risk exposure to HIV among sexually active individuals who tested negative on rapid HIV Tests in the Tshwane District of South Africa-The importance of behavioural prevention measures

OBJECTIVE

To assess the prevalence of HIV risk behaviour among sexually active HIV sero-negative individuals in the Tshwane district of South Africa (SA).

METHODS

Demographic and HIV risk behaviour data were collected on a questionnaire from participants of a cross-sectional study that screened for early HIV infection using pooled nucleic acid amplification testing (NAAT). The study enrolled individuals who tested negative on rapid HIV tests performed at five HIV counseling and testing (HCT) clinics, which included four antenatal clinics and one general HCT clinic.

RESULTS

The study enrolled 9547 predominantly black participants (96.6%) with a median age of 27 years (interquartile range [IQR]: 23-31). There were 1661 non-pregnant and 7886 pregnant participants largely enrolled from the general and antenatal HCT clinics, respectively. NAAT detected HIV infection in 61 participants (0.6%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.4-0.8) in the whole study. A high proportion of study participants, 62.8% and 63.0%, were unaware of their partner's HIV status; and also had high prevalence, 88.5% and 99.5%, of recent unprotected sex in the general and pregnant population, respectively. Consistent use of condoms was associated with protection against HIV infection in the general population. Trends of higher odds for HIV infection were observed with most demographic and HIV risk factors at univariate analysis, however, multivariate analysis did not show statistical significance for almost all these factors. A significantly lower risk of HIV infection was observed in circumcised men (p <0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

These data show that a large segment of sexually active people in the Tshwane district of SA have high risk exposure to HIV. The detection of newly diagnosed HIV infections in all study clinics reflects a wide distribution of individuals who are capable of sustaining HIV transmission in the setting where HIV risk behaviour is highly prevalent. A questionnaire that captures HIV risk behaviour would be useful during HIV counselling and testing to ensure that there is a systematic way of identifying HIV risk factors and that counselling is optimised for each individual. HIV risk behaviour surveillance could be used to inform relevant HIV prevention interventions that could be implemented at a community or population level.

Progress and prospects for the control of HIV and tuberculosis in South Africa: a dynamical modelling study

BACKGROUND

In September, 2016, South Africa adopted a policy of providing antiretroviral treatment to everyone infected with HIV irrespective of their CD4 cell count. Studies of universal treatment and expanded prevention of HIV differ widely in their projections of effects and the associated costs, so we did this analysis to attempt to find a consensus.

METHODS

We used data on HIV from the Joint UN Programme on HIV and AIDS (UNAIDS) from 1988 to 2013 and from data from WHO on tuberculosis from 1980 to to 2013 to fit a dynamical model to time trends in HIV prevalence, antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage, and tuberculosis notification rates in South Africa. We then used the model to estimate current trends and project future patterns in HIV prevalence and incidence, AIDS-related mortality, and tuberculosis notification rates, and we used data from the South African National AIDS Council to assess current and future costs under different combinations of treatment and prevention approaches. We considered two treatment strategies: the Constant Effort strategy, in which people infected with HIV continue to start treatment at the rate in 2016, and the Expanded Treatment and Prevention (ETP) strategy, in which testing rates are increased, treatment is started immediately after HIV is detected, and prevention programmes are expanded.

FINDINGS

Our estimates show that HIV incidence among adults aged 15 years or older fell from 2·3% per year in 1996 to 0·65% per year in 2016, AIDS-related mortality decreased from 1·4% per year in 2006 to 0·37% per year in 2016, and both continue to fall at a relative rate of 17% per year. Our model shows that maintenance of Constant Effort will have a substantial effect on HIV but will not end AIDS, whereas ETP could end AIDS by 2030, with incidence of HIV and AIDs-related mortality rates both at less than one event per 1000 adults per year. Under ETP the annual cost of health care and prevention will increase from US$2·3 billion in 2016 to $2·9 billion in 2018, then decrease to $1·7 billion in 2030 and $0·9 billion in 2050. Over the next 35 years, the expansion of treatment will avert an additional 3·8 million new infections, save 1·1 million lives, and save $3·2 billion compared with continuing Constant Effort up to 2050. Expansion of prevention, including provision of pre-exposure prophylaxis, condom distribution, and male circumcision, could avert a further 150 000 new infections, save 5000 lives, and cost an additional $5·7 billion compared with Constant Effort.

INTERPRETATION

Our results suggest that South Africa is on track to reduce HIV incidence and AIDS-related mortality substantially by 2030, saving both lives and money. Success will depend on high rates of HIV testing, ART delivery and adherence, good patient monitoring and support, and data to monitor progress.

FUNDING

None.

Field evaluation of Standard Diagnostics' Bioline HIV/Syphilis Duo test among female sex workers in Johannesburg, South Africa

BACKGROUND

Point-of-care tests provide immediate results with the opportunity for same-day interventions with improved public health outcomes. A dual HIV/syphilis test enables early treatment of both diseases.

METHODS

We conducted a field evaluation of the Standard Diagnostics' SD Bioline HIV/Syphilis Duo test (SD Bioline) among female sex workers. SD Bioline was conducted on finger-prick blood according to manufacturer's instructions and compared with (i) Genscreen HIV1/2 (third generation) and Vironostika Ag/Ab (fourth generation) assays for HIV, and (ii) Treponema pallidum particle agglutination (TPPA) and rapid plasma reagin (RPR) assays for syphilis. A negative TPPA test was considered negative, a TPPA-confirmed RPR titre ≤1:4 as past infection and a TPPA-confirmed RPR titre ≥1:8 as active syphilis. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were calculated.

RESULTS

Of 263 women recruited, 14 (5.3%) declined an HIV test. Among the remaining 249 women, 187 (75.1%) were HIV positive, 51 (20.5%) had syphilis antibodies with seven (2.8%) active infections. For HIV, the sensitivity and specificity were 98.9% (95% CI 95.8% to 99.8%) and 100% (95% CI 92.7% to 100%). For syphilis, the sensitivity and specificity were 66.7% (95% CI 52.0% to 78.9%) and 98.0% (95% CI 94.5% to 99.3%). Sera with high TPPA titres were more likely to test positive.

CONCLUSIONS

In field conditions, while the SD Bioline test has high sensitivity and specificity for HIV and high specificity for syphilis, the test has lower sensitivity for syphilis than reported from laboratory evaluations. As the dual test detects only two thirds of syphilis cases, it should only be used in areas with weak screening programmes.

CD4 Cell Count: Declining Value for Antiretroviral Therapy Eligibility

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) policy for people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) has historically been based on clinical indications, such as opportunistic infections and CD4 cell counts. Studies suggest that CD4 counts early in HIV infection do not predict relevant public health outcomes such as disease progression, mortality, and HIV transmission in people living with HIV. CD4 counts also vary widely within individuals and among populations, leading to imprecise measurements and arbitrary ART initiation. To capture the clinical and preventive benefits of treatment, the global HIV response now focuses on increasing HIV diagnosis and ART coverage. CD4 counts for ART initiation were necessary when medications were expensive and had severe side effects, and when the impact of early ART initiation was unclear. However, current evidence suggests that although CD4 counts may still play a role in guiding clinical care to start prophylaxis for opportunistic infections, CD4 counts should cease to be required for ART initiation.

Programmatic Implications of Acute and Early HIV Infection

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection includes acute, early, chronic, and late stages. Acute HIV infection lasts approximately 3 weeks and early HIV infection, which includes acute HIV infection, lasts approximately 7 weeks. Many testing and blood screening algorithms detect HIV antibodies about 3 weeks after HIV infection. Incidence estimates are based on results of modeling, cohort studies, surveillance, and/or assays. Viral load is the key modifiable risk factor for HIV transmission and peaks during acute and early HIV infection. Empirical evidence characterizing the impact of acute and early HIV infection on the spread of the HIV epidemic are limited. Time trends of HIV prevalence collected from concentrated and generalized epidemics suggest that acute and early HIV infection may have a limited role in population HIV transmission. Collectively, these data suggest that acute and early HIV infection is relatively short and does not currently require fundamentally different programmatic approaches to manage the HIV/AIDS epidemic in most settings. Research and surveillance will inform which epidemic contexts and phases may require tailored strategies for these stages of HIV infection.

Modelling challenges in context: lessons from malaria, HIV, and tuberculosis

Malaria, HIV, and tuberculosis (TB) collectively account for several million deaths each year, with all three ranking among the top ten killers in low-income countries. Despite being caused by very different organisms, malaria, HIV, and TB present a suite of challenges for mathematical modellers that are particularly pronounced in these infections, but represent general problems in infectious disease modelling, and highlight many of the challenges described throughout this issue. Here, we describe some of the unifying challenges that arise in modelling malaria, HIV, and TB, including variation in dynamics within the host, diversity in the pathogen, and heterogeneity in human contact networks and behaviour. Through the lens of these three pathogens, we provide specific examples of the other challenges in this issue and discuss their implications for informing public health efforts.

Modeling the implementation of universal coverage for HIV treatment as prevention and its impact on the HIV epidemic

The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) recently updated its global targets for antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage for HIV-positive persons under which 90 % of HIV-positive people are tested, 90 % of those are on ART, and 90 % of those achieve viral suppression. Treatment policy is moving toward treating all HIV-infected persons regardless of CD4 cell count-otherwise known as treatment as prevention-in order to realize the full therapeutic and preventive benefits of ART. Mathematical models have played an important role in guiding the development of these policies by projecting long-term health impacts and cost-effectiveness. To guide future policy, new mathematical models must consider the barriers patients face in receiving and taking ART. Here, we describe the HIV care cascade and ART delivery supply chain to examine how mathematical modeling can provide insight into cost-effective strategies for scaling-up ART coverage in sub-Saharan Africa and help achieve universal ART coverage.

The temporal dynamics of relapse and reinfection tuberculosis after successful treatment: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

There is increasing evidence from tuberculosis high-burden settings that exogenous reinfection contributes considerably to recurrent disease. However, large longitudinal studies of endogenous reactivation (relapse) and reinfection tuberculosis are lacking. We hypothesize a relationship between relapse vs reinfection and the time between treatment completion and recurrent disease.

METHODS

Population-based retrospective cohort study on all smear-positive tuberculosis cases successfully treated between 1996 and 2008 in a suburban setting in Cape Town, South Africa. Inverse gaussian distributions were fitted to observed annual rates of relapse and reinfection, distinguished by DNA fingerprinting of Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains recultured from diagnostic samples.

RESULTS

Paired DNA fingerprint data were available for 130 (64%) of 203 recurrent smear-positive tuberculosis cases in the 13-year study period. Reinfection accounted for 66 (51%) of 130 recurrent cases overall, 9 (20%) of 44 recurrent cases within the first year, and 57 (66%) of 86 thereafter (P < .001). The relapse rate peaked at 3.93% (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.35%-5.96%) per annum 0.35 (95% CI, .15-.45) years after treatment completion. The reinfection tuberculosis rate peaked at 1.58% (95% CI, .94%-2.46%) per annum 1.20 (95% CI, .55-1.70) years after completion.

CONCLUSIONS

To our knowledge, this is the first study of sufficient size and duration using DNA fingerprinting to investigate tuberculosis relapse and reinfection over a lengthy period. Relapse occurred early after treatment completion, whereas reinfection dominated after 1 year and accounted for at least half of recurrent disease. This temporal relationship may explain the high variability in reinfection observed across smaller studies. We speculate that follow-up time in antituberculosis drug trials should take reinfection into account.

Migration and Health in Southern Africa: 100 years and still circulating

Migration has deep historical roots in South and Southern Africa and to this day continues to be highly prevalent and a major factor shaping South African society and health. In this paper we examine the role of migration in the spread of two diseases nearly 100 years apart: tuberculosis following the discovery of gold in 1886 and HIV in the early 1990s. Both cases demonstrate the critical role played by human migration in the transmission and subsequent dissemination of these diseases to rural areas. In both cases, migration acts to assemble in one high-risk environment thousands of young men highly susceptible to new diseases. With poor living and working conditions, these migration destinations act as hot-spots for disease transmission. Migration of workers back to rural areas then serves as a highly efficient means of disseminating these diseases to rural populations. We conclude by raising some more recent questions examining the current role of migration in Southern Africa.

Extra-couple HIV transmission in sub-Saharan Africa: a mathematical modelling study of survey data

BACKGROUND

The proportion of heterosexual HIV transmission in sub-Saharan Africa that occurs within cohabiting partnerships, compared with that in single people or extra-couple relationships, is widely debated. We estimated the proportional contribution of different routes of transmission to new HIV infections. As plans to use antiretroviral drugs as a strategy for population-level prevention progress, understanding the importance of different transmission routes is crucial to target intervention efforts.

METHODS

We built a mechanistic model of HIV transmission with data from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) for 2003-2011, of 27,201 cohabiting couples (men aged 15-59 years and women aged 15-49 years) from 18 sub-Saharan African countries with information about relationship duration, age at sexual debut, and HIV serostatus. We combined this model with estimates of HIV survival times and country-specific estimates of HIV prevalence and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART). We then estimated the proportion of recorded infections in surveyed cohabiting couples that occurred before couple formation, between couple members, and because of extra-couple intercourse.

FINDINGS

In surveyed couples, we estimated that extra-couple transmission accounted for 27-61% of all HIV infections in men and 21-51% of all those in women, with ranges showing intercountry variation. We estimated that in 2011, extra-couple transmission accounted for 32-65% of new incident HIV infections in men in cohabiting couples, and 10-47% of new infections in women in such couples. Our findings suggest that transmission within couples occurs largely from men to women; however, the latter sex have a very high-risk period before couple formation.

INTERPRETATION

Because of the large contribution of extra-couple transmission to new HIV infections, interventions for HIV prevention should target the general sexually active population and not only serodiscordant couples.

FUNDING

US National Institutes of Health, US National Science Foundation, and J S McDonnell Foundation.

TB and HIV: deadly liaison or manageable threat?

Researchers create a dynamic model that could resolve conflicting findings on the effects of HIV infection on drug-resistant tuberculosis.

Cost-effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy for prevention

Recent empirical studies and analyses have heightened interest in the use of expanded antiretroviral therapy (ART) for prevention of HIV transmission. However, ART is expensive, approximately $600 per person per year, raising issues of the cost and cost-effectiveness of ambitious ART expansion. The goal of this review is to equip the reader with the conceptual tools and substantive background needed to understand and evaluate the policy and programmatic implications of cost-effectiveness assessments of ART for prevention. We provide this review in six sections. We start by introducing and explaining basic concepts of health economics as they relate to this issue, including resources, costs, health metrics (such as Disability-Adjusted Life Years), and different types of economic analysis. We then review research on the cost and cost-effectiveness of ART as treatment, and on the cost-effectiveness of traditional HIV prevention. We describe critical issues in the epidemic impact of ART, such as suppression of transmission and the role of the acute phase of infection. We then present a conceptual model for conducting and interpreting cost-effectiveness analyses of ART as prevention, and review the existing preliminary estimates in this area. We end with a discussion of future directions for programmatic demonstrations and evaluation.

Expanding ART for treatment and prevention of HIV in South Africa: estimated cost and cost-effectiveness 2011-2050

BACKGROUND

Antiretroviral Treatment (ART) significantly reduces HIV transmission. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of the impact of expanded ART in South Africa.

METHODS

We model a best case scenario of 90% annual HIV testing coverage in adults 15-49 years old and four ART eligibility scenarios: CD4 count <200 cells/mm(3) (current practice), CD4 count <350, CD4 count <500, all CD4 levels. 2011-2050 outcomes include deaths, disability adjusted life years (DALYs), HIV infections, cost, and cost per DALY averted. Service and ART costs reflect South African data and international generic prices. ART reduces transmission by 92%. We conducted sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

Expanding ART to CD4 count <350 cells/mm(3) prevents an estimated 265,000 (17%) and 1.3 million (15%) new HIV infections over 5 and 40 years, respectively. Cumulative deaths decline 15%, from 12.5 to 10.6 million; DALYs by 14% from 109 to 93 million over 40 years. Costs drop $504 million over 5 years and $3.9 billion over 40 years with breakeven by 2013. Compared with the current scenario, expanding to <500 prevents an additional 585,000 and 3 million new HIV infections over 5 and 40 years, respectively. Expanding to all CD4 levels decreases HIV infections by 3.3 million (45%) and costs by $10 billion over 40 years, with breakeven by 2023. By 2050, using higher ART and monitoring costs, all CD4 levels saves $0.6 billion versus current; other ART scenarios cost $9-194 per DALY averted. If ART reduces transmission by 99%, savings from all CD4 levels reach $17.5 billion. Sensitivity analyses suggest that poor retention and predominant acute phase transmission reduce DALYs averted by 26% and savings by 7%.

CONCLUSION

Increasing the provision of ART to <350 cells/mm3 may significantly reduce costs while reducing the HIV burden. Feasibility including HIV testing and ART uptake, retention, and adherence should be evaluated.

Antiretroviral therapy for prevention of tuberculosis in adults with HIV: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is the strongest risk factor for developing tuberculosis and has fuelled its resurgence, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2010, there were an estimated 1.1 million incident cases of tuberculosis among the 34 million people living with HIV worldwide. Antiretroviral therapy has substantial potential to prevent HIV-associated tuberculosis. We conducted a systematic review of studies that analysed the impact of antiretroviral therapy on the incidence of tuberculosis in adults with HIV infection.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

PubMed, Embase, African Index Medicus, LILACS, and clinical trial registries were systematically searched. Randomised controlled trials, prospective cohort studies, and retrospective cohort studies were included if they compared tuberculosis incidence by antiretroviral therapy status in HIV-infected adults for a median of over 6 mo in developing countries. For the meta-analyses there were four categories based on CD4 counts at antiretroviral therapy initiation: (1) less than 200 cells/µl, (2) 200 to 350 cells/µl, (3) greater than 350 cells/µl, and (4) any CD4 count. Eleven studies met the inclusion criteria. Antiretroviral therapy is strongly associated with a reduction in the incidence of tuberculosis in all baseline CD4 count categories: (1) less than 200 cells/µl (hazard ratio [HR] 0.16, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.07 to 0.36), (2) 200 to 350 cells/µl (HR 0.34, 95% CI 0.19 to 0.60), (3) greater than 350 cells/µl (HR 0.43, 95% CI 0.30 to 0.63), and (4) any CD4 count (HR 0.35, 95% CI 0.28 to 0.44). There was no evidence of hazard ratio modification with respect to baseline CD4 count category (p = 0.20).

CONCLUSIONS

Antiretroviral therapy is strongly associated with a reduction in the incidence of tuberculosis across all CD4 count strata. Earlier initiation of antiretroviral therapy may be a key component of global and national strategies to control the HIV-associated tuberculosis syndemic.

REVIEW REGISTRATION

International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews CRD42011001209 Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

HIV treatment as prevention: systematic comparison of mathematical models of the potential impact of antiretroviral therapy on HIV incidence in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Many mathematical models have investigated the impact of expanding access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) on new HIV infections. Comparing results and conclusions across models is challenging because models have addressed slightly different questions and have reported different outcome metrics. This study compares the predictions of several mathematical models simulating the same ART intervention programmes to determine the extent to which models agree about the epidemiological impact of expanded ART.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Twelve independent mathematical models evaluated a set of standardised ART intervention scenarios in South Africa and reported a common set of outputs. Intervention scenarios systematically varied the CD4 count threshold for treatment eligibility, access to treatment, and programme retention. For a scenario in which 80% of HIV-infected individuals start treatment on average 1 y after their CD4 count drops below 350 cells/µl and 85% remain on treatment after 3 y, the models projected that HIV incidence would be 35% to 54% lower 8 y after the introduction of ART, compared to a counterfactual scenario in which there is no ART. More variation existed in the estimated long-term (38 y) reductions in incidence. The impact of optimistic interventions including immediate ART initiation varied widely across models, maintaining substantial uncertainty about the theoretical prospect for elimination of HIV from the population using ART alone over the next four decades. The number of person-years of ART per infection averted over 8 y ranged between 5.8 and 18.7. Considering the actual scale-up of ART in South Africa, seven models estimated that current HIV incidence is 17% to 32% lower than it would have been in the absence of ART. Differences between model assumptions about CD4 decline and HIV transmissibility over the course of infection explained only a modest amount of the variation in model results.

CONCLUSIONS

Mathematical models evaluating the impact of ART vary substantially in structure, complexity, and parameter choices, but all suggest that ART, at high levels of access and with high adherence, has the potential to substantially reduce new HIV infections. There was broad agreement regarding the short-term epidemiologic impact of ambitious treatment scale-up, but more variation in longer term projections and in the efficiency with which treatment can reduce new infections. Differences between model predictions could not be explained by differences in model structure or parameterization that were hypothesized to affect intervention impact.

Antiretroviral therapy and the control of HIV-associated tuberculosis. Will ART do it?

The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) associated tuberculosis (TB) epidemic remains an enormous challenge to TB control in countries with a high prevalence of HIV. In their 1999 article entitled 'Will DOTS do it?', De Cock and Chaisson questioned whether the World Health Organization's DOTS Strategy could control this epidemic. Data over the past 10 years have clearly shown that DOTS is insufficient as a single TB control intervention in such settings because it does not address the fundamental epidemiological interactions between TB and HIV. Immunodeficiency is a principal driver of this epidemic, and the solution must therefore include immune recovery using antiretroviral therapy (ART). Thus, in the era of global ART scale-up, we now ask the question, 'Will ART do it?' ART reduces the risk of TB by 67% (95%CI 61-73), halves TB recurrence rates, reduces mortality risk by 64-95% in cohorts and prolongs survival in patients with HIV-associated drug-resistant TB. However, the cumulative lifetime risk of TB in HIV-infected individuals is a function of time spent at various CD4-defined levels of risk, both before and during ART. Current initiation of ART at low CD4 cell counts (by which time much HIV-associated TB has already occurred) and low effective coverage greatly undermine the potential impact of ART at a population level. Thus, while ART has proven a critical intervention for case management of HIV-associated TB, much of its preventive potential for TB control is currently being squandered. Much earlier ART initiation with high coverage is required if ART is to substantially influence the incidence of TB.

Modelling the impact of antiretroviral therapy on the epidemic of HIV

Thirty years after HIV first appeared it has killed close to 30 million people but transmission continues unchecked. In 2009, an estimated 1.8 million lives were lost and 2.6 million more people were infected with HIV [1]. To cut transmission, many social, behavioural and biomedical interventions have been developed, tested and tried but have had little impact on the epidemic in most countries. One substantial success has been the development of combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) that reduces viral load and restores immune function. This raises the possibility of using ART not only to treat people but also to prevent new HIV infections. Here we consider the impact of ART on the transmission of HIV and show how it could help to control the epidemic. Much needs to be known and understood concerning the impact of early treatment with ART on the prognosis for individual patients and on transmission. We review the current literature on factors associated with modelling treatment for prevention and illustrate the potential impact using existing models. We focus on generalized epidemics in sub- Saharan Africa, with an emphasis on South Africa, where transmission is mainly heterosexual and which account for an estimated 17% of all people living with HIV. We also make reference to epidemics among men who have sex with men and injection drug users where appropriate. We discuss ways in which using treatment as prevention can be taken forward knowing that this can only be the beginning of what must become an inclusive dialogue among all of those concerned to stop acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS).

Nutrition, diabetes and tuberculosis in the epidemiological transition

Background

Diabetes prevalence and body mass index reflect the nutritional profile of populations but have opposing effects on tuberculosis risk. Interactions between diabetes and BMI could help or hinder TB control in growing, aging, urbanizing populations.

Methods and Findings

We compiled data describing temporal changes in BMI, diabetes prevalence and population age structure in rural and urban areas for men and women in countries with high (India) and low (Rep. Korea) TB burdens. Using published data on the risks of TB associated with these factors, we calculated expected changes in TB incidence between 1998 and 2008. In India, TB incidence cases would have increased (28% from 1.7 m to 2.1 m) faster than population size (22%) because of adverse effects of aging, urbanization, changing BMI and rising diabetes prevalence, generating an increase in TB incidence per capita of 5.5% in 10 years. In India, general nutritional improvements were offset by a fall in BMI among the majority of men who live in rural areas. The growing prevalence of diabetes in India increased the annual number of TB cases in people with diabetes by 46% between 1998 and 2008. In Korea, by contrast, the number of TB cases increased more slowly (6.1% from 40,200 to 42,800) than population size (14%) because of positive effects of urbanization, increasing BMI and falling diabetes prevalence. Consequently, TB incidence per capita fell by 7.8% in 10 years. Rapid population aging was the most significant adverse effect in Korea.

Conclusions

Nutritional and demographic changes had stronger adverse effects on TB in high-incidence India than in lower-incidence Korea. The unfavourable effects in both countries can be overcome by early drug treatment but, if left unchecked, could lead to an accelerating rise in TB incidence. The prevention and management of risk factors for TB would reinforce TB control by chemotherapy.

Lives saved by tuberculosis control and prospects for achieving the 2015 global target for reducing tuberculosis mortality

OBJECTIVE

To assess whether the global target of halving tuberculosis (TB) mortality between 1990 and 2015 can be achieved and to conduct the first global assessment of the lives saved by the DOTS/Stop TB Strategy of the World Health Organization (WHO).

METHODS

Mortality from TB since 1990 was estimated for 213 countries using established methods endorsed by WHO. Mortality trends were estimated separately for people with and without human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in accordance with the International classification of diseases. Lives saved by the DOTS/Stop TB Strategy were estimated with respect to the performance of TB control in 1995, the year that DOTS was introduced.

FINDINGS

TB mortality among HIV-negative (HIV-) people fell from 30 to 20 per 100,000 population (36%) between 1990 and 2009 and could be halved by 2015. The overall decline (when including HIV-positive [HIV+] people, who comprise 12% of all TB cases) was 19%. Between 1995 and 2009, 49 million TB patients were treated under the DOTS/Stop TB Strategy. This saved 4.6-6.3 million lives, including those of 0.23-0.28 million children and 1.4-1.7 million women of childbearing age. A further 1 million lives could be saved annually by 2015.

CONCLUSION

Improvements in TB care and control since 1995 have greatly reduced TB mortality, saved millions of lives and brought within reach the global target of halving TB deaths by 2015 relative to 1990. Intensified efforts to reduce deaths among HIV+ TB cases are needed, especially in sub-Saharan Africa.

Natural history of tuberculosis: duration and fatality of untreated pulmonary tuberculosis in HIV negative patients: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

The prognosis, specifically the case fatality and duration, of untreated tuberculosis is important as many patients are not correctly diagnosed and therefore receive inadequate or no treatment. Furthermore, duration and case fatality of tuberculosis are key parameters in interpreting epidemiological data.

METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

To estimate the duration and case fatality of untreated pulmonary tuberculosis in HIV negative patients we reviewed studies from the pre-chemotherapy era. Untreated smear-positive tuberculosis among HIV negative individuals has a 10-year case fatality variously reported between 53% and 86%, with a weighted mean of 70%. Ten-year case fatality of culture-positive smear-negative tuberculosis was nowhere reported directly but can be indirectly estimated to be approximately 20%. The duration of tuberculosis from onset to cure or death is approximately 3 years and appears to be similar for smear-positive and smear-negative tuberculosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Current models of untreated tuberculosis that assume a total duration of 2 years until self-cure or death underestimate the duration of disease by about one year, but their case fatality estimates of 70% for smear-positive and 20% for culture-positive smear-negative tuberculosis appear to be satisfactory.

Declining HIV prevalence and incidence in perinatal women in Harare, Zimbabwe

BACKGROUND

In several recent papers it has been suggested that HIV prevalence and incidence are declining in Zimbabwe as a result of changing sexual behavior. We provide further support for these suggestions, based on an analysis of more extensive, age-stratified, HIV prevalence data from 1990 to 2009 for perinatal women in Harare, as well as data on incidence and mortality.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Pooled prevalence, incidence and mortality were fitted using a simple susceptible-infected (SI) model of HIV transmission; age-stratified prevalence data were fitted using double-logistic functions. We estimate that incidence peaked at 5.5% per year in 1991 declining to 1% per year in 2010. Prevalence peaked in 1998/9 [35.9% (CI95: 31.3-40.7)] and decreased by 67% to 11.9% (CI95: 10.1-13.8) in 2009. For women <20y, 20-24y, 25-29y, 30-34y and ≥35y, prevalence peaked at 25.4%, 34.2%, 47.1%, 44.0% and 33.5% in 1993, 1996, 1997, 1998 and 1999, respectively, declining thereafter in every age group. Among women <25y, prevalence peaked in 1994 at 28.8% declining thereafter by 69% to 8.9% (CI95: 6.8-11.5) in 2009.

CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE

HIV prevalence declined substantially among perinatal women in Harare after 1998 consequent upon a decline in incidence starting in the early 1990s. Our model suggests that this was primarily a result of changes in behavior which we attribute to a general increase in awareness of the dangers of AIDS and the ever more apparent increases in mortality.

Antiretroviral therapy initiated soon after HIV diagnosis as standard care: potential to save lives?

In 2008, an estimated 33.4 million people were infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and ~4 million people were receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). However, in 2007, an estimated 6.7 million people were in need of ART under the current World Health Organization guidelines, and 2.7 million more people became infected with HIV. Most of those not currently eligible for ART will become eligible within the next decade, making the current treatment strategy unsustainable. The development of cheaper, less toxic, and more potent antiretrovirals over the past decade has made it possible to consider novel strategies of arresting the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Evidence is growing that ART can be used to prevent HIV transmission and that earlier initiation of treatment is beneficial for those infected with HIV. A mathematical model predicts that by testing whole communities annually and treating all who are infected immediately, up to 7.2 million AIDS-related deaths could be prevented in the next 40 years, long-term funding required to fight the HIV epidemic could be reduced, and, most importantly, control of the HIV/ AIDS epidemic could be regained within 1–2 years of full-scale implementation of the strategy. We discuss the development of the concept of ART for the prevention of HIV transmission and the modeled impact that a test-and-treat strategy could have on the HIV epidemic, and consequently argue that a field trial should be carried out to confirm model parameters, highlight any practical problems, and test the model’s predictions.

Tuberculosis incidence in prisons: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Transmission of tuberculosis (TB) in prisons has been reported worldwide to be much higher than that reported for the corresponding general population.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

A systematic review has been performed to assess the risk of incident latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) and TB disease in prisons, as compared to the incidence in the corresponding local general population, and to estimate the fraction of TB in the general population attributable (PAF%) to transmission within prisons. Primary peer-reviewed studies have been searched to assess the incidence of LTBI and/or TB within prisons published until June 2010; both inmates and prison staff were considered. Studies, which were independently screened by two reviewers, were eligible for inclusion if they reported the incidence of LTBI and TB disease in prisons. Available data were collected from 23 studies out of 582 potentially relevant unique citations. Five studies from the US and one from Brazil were available to assess the incidence of LTBI in prisons, while 19 studies were available to assess the incidence of TB. The median estimated annual incidence rate ratio (IRR) for LTBI and TB were 26.4 (interquartile range [IQR]: 13.0-61.8) and 23.0 (IQR: 11.7-36.1), respectively. The median estimated fraction (PAF%) of tuberculosis in the general population attributable to the exposure in prisons for TB was 8.5% (IQR: 1.9%-17.9%) and 6.3% (IQR: 2.7%-17.2%) in high- and middle/low-income countries, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The very high IRR and the substantial population attributable fraction show that much better TB control in prisons could potentially protect prisoners and staff from within-prison spread of TB and would significantly reduce the national burden of TB. Future studies should measure the impact of the conditions in prisons on TB transmission and assess the population attributable risk of prison-to-community spread. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Comparison of two active case-finding strategies for community-based diagnosis of symptomatic smear-positive tuberculosis and control of infectious tuberculosis in Harare, Zimbabwe (DETECTB): a cluster-randomised trial

BACKGROUND

Control of tuberculosis in settings with high HIV prevalence is a pressing public health priority. We tested two active case-finding strategies to target long periods of infectiousness before diagnosis, which is typical of HIV-negative tuberculosis and is a key driver of transmission.

METHODS

Clusters of neighbourhoods in the high-density residential suburbs of Harare, Zimbabwe, were randomised to receive six rounds of active case finding at 6-monthly intervals by either mobile van or door-to-door visits. Randomisation was done by selection of discs of two colours from an opaque bag, with one disc to represent every cluster, and one colour allocated to each intervention group before selection began. In both groups, adult (≥16 years) residents volunteering chronic cough (≥2 weeks) had two sputum specimens collected for fluorescence microscopy. Community health workers and cluster residents were not masked to intervention allocation, but investigators and laboratory staff were masked to allocation until final analysis. The primary outcome was the cumulative yield of smear-positive tuberculosis per 1000 adult residents, compared between intervention groups; analysis was by intention to treat. The secondary outcome was change in prevalence of culture-positive tuberculosis from before intervention to before round six of intervention in 12% of randomly selected households from the two intervention groups combined; analysis was based on participants who provided sputum in the two prevalence surveys. This trial is registered, number ISRCTN84352452.

FINDINGS

46 study clusters were identified and randomly allocated equally between intervention groups, with 55 741 adults in the mobile van group and 54,691 in the door-to-door group at baseline. HIV prevalence was 21% (1916/9060) and in the 6 months before intervention the smear-positive case notification rate was 2·8 per 1000 adults per year. The trial was completed as planned with no adverse events. The mobile van detected 255 smear-positive patients from 5466 participants submitting sputum compared with 137 of 4711 participants identified through door-to-door visits (adjusted risk ratio 1·48, 95% CI 1·11-1·96, p=0·0087). The overall prevalence of culture-positive tuberculosis declined from 6·5 per 1000 adults (95% CI 5·1-8·3) to 3·7 per 1000 adults (2·6-5·0; adjusted risk ratio 0·59, 95% CI 0·40-0·89, p=0·0112).

INTERPRETATION

Wide implementation of active case finding, particularly with a mobile van approach, could have rapid effects on tuberculosis transmission and disease.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust.

The HIV-associated tuberculosis epidemic--when will we act?

Despite policies, strategies, and guidelines, the epidemic of HIV-associated tuberculosis continues to rage, particularly in southern Africa. We focus our attention on the regions with the greatest burden of disease, especially sub-Saharan Africa, and concentrate on prevention of tuberculosis in people with HIV infection, a challenge that has been greatly neglected. We argue for a much more aggressive approach to early diagnosis and treatment of HIV infection in affected communities, and propose urgent assessment of frequent testing for HIV and early start of antiretroviral treatment (ART). This approach should result in short-term and long-term declines in tuberculosis incidence through individual immune reconstitution and reduced HIV transmission. Implementation of the 3Is policy (intensified tuberculosis case finding, infection control, and isoniazid preventive therapy) for prevention of HIV-associated tuberculosis, combined with earlier start of ART, will reduce the burden of tuberculosis in people with HIV infection and provide a safe clinical environment for delivery of ART. Some progress is being made in provision of HIV care to HIV-infected patients with tuberculosis, but too few receive co-trimoxazole prophylaxis and ART. We make practical recommendations about how to improve this situation. Early HIV diagnosis and treatment, the 3Is, and a comprehensive package of HIV care, in association with directly observed therapy, short-course (DOTS) for tuberculosis, form the basis of prevention and control of HIV-associated tuberculosis. This call to action recommends that both HIV and tuberculosis programmes exhort implementation of strategies that are known to be effective, and test innovative strategies that could work. The continuing HIV-associated tuberculosis epidemic needs bold but responsible action, without which the future will simply mirror the past.

The population dynamics and control of tuberculosis

More than 36 million patients have been successfully treated via the World Health Organization's strategy for tuberculosis (TB) control since 1995. Despite predictions of a decline in global incidence, the number of new cases continues to grow, approaching 10 million in 2010. Here we review the changing relationship between the causative agent, Mycobacterium tuberculosis, and its human host and examine a range of factors that could explain the persistence of TB. Although there are ways to reduce susceptibility to infection and disease, and a high-efficacy vaccine would boost TB prevention, early diagnosis and drug treatment to interrupt transmission remain the top priorities for control. Whatever the technology used, success depends critically on the social, institutional, and epidemiological context in which it is applied.

National estimate of HIV seroprevalence among tuberculosis patients in India

The national estimate for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence among tuberculosis (TB) patients in India has previously been estimated indirectly from global data. To derive an improved national estimate from local data, we correlated district-level HIV surveillance data from antenatal clinics and TB diagnostic centres, and applied this correlation to state-level HIV prevalence estimates for the antenatal population. We estimate that among the 1.96 million incident TB cases in 2007, 4.85% (95%CI 4.12-5.73) or 95 240 (95%CI 80 730-112 478) were HIV-infected. With these estimates from local data, the national programme can better plan TB-HIV collaborative activities and monitor efforts to detect HIV infection in this large population.