Impact of anthropogenic emission control in reducing future PM2.5 concentrations and the related oxidative potential across different regions of China

Affected by both future anthropogenic emissions and climate change, future prediction of PM2.5 and its Oxidative Potential (OP) distribution is a significant challenge, especially in developing countries like China. To overcome this challenge, we estimated historical and future PM2.5 concentrations and associated OP using the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) system with meteorological input from WRF weather forecast model. Considering different future socio-economic pathways and emission scenario assumptions, we quantified how the contribution from various anthropogenic emission sectors will change under these scenarios. Results show that compared to the CESM_SSP2-4.5_CLE scenario (based on moderate radiative forcing and Current Legislation Emission), the CESM_SSP1-2.6_MFR scenario (based on sustainability development and Maximum Feasible Reductions) is projected to yield greater environmental and health benefits in the future. Under the CESM_SSP1-2.6_MFR scenario, annual average PM2.5 concentrations (OP) are expected to decrease to 30 (0.8 nmolmin-1m-3) in almost all regions by 2030, which will be 65 % (67 %) lower than that in 2010. From a long-term perspective, it is anticipated that OP in the Fen-Wei Plain region will experience the maximum reduction (82.6 %) from 2010 to 2049. Largely benefiting from the effective control of PM2.5 in the region, it has decreased by 82.1 %. Crucially, once emission reduction measures reach a certain level (in 2040), further reductions become less significant. This study also emphasized the significant role of secondary aerosol formation and biomass-burning sources in influencing OP during both historical and future periods. In different scenarios, the reduction range of OP from 2010 to 2049 is estimated to be between 71 % and 85 % by controlling precursor emissions involved in secondary aerosol formation and emissions from biomass burning. Results indicate that strengthening the control of anthropogenic emissions in various regions are key to achieving air quality targets and safeguarding human health in the future.

Monthly average air pollution models using geographically weighted regression in Europe from 2000 to 2019

Detailed spatial models of monthly air pollution levels at a very fine spatial resolution (25 m) can help facilitate studies to explore critical time-windows of exposure at intermediate term. Seasonal changes in air pollution may affect both levels and spatial patterns of air pollution across Europe. We built Europe-wide land-use regression (LUR) models to estimate monthly concentrations of regulated air pollutants (NO2, O3, PM10 and PM2.5) between 2000 and 2019. Monthly average concentrations were collected from routine monitoring stations. Including both monthly-fixed and -varying spatial variables, we used supervised linear regression (SLR) to select predictors and geographically weighted regression (GWR) to estimate spatially-varying regression coefficients for each month. Model performance was assessed with 5-fold cross-validation (CV). We also compared the performance of the monthly LUR models with monthly adjusted concentrations. Results revealed significant monthly variations in both estimates and model structure, particularly for O3, PM10, and PM2.5. The 5-fold CV showed generally good performance of the monthly GWR models across months and years (5-fold CV R2: 0.31-0.66 for NO2, 0.4-0.79 for O3, 0.4-0.78 for PM10, 0.46-0.87 for PM2.5). Monthly GWR models slightly outperformed monthly-adjusted models. Correlations between monthly GWR model were generally moderate to high (Pearson correlation >0.6). In conclusion, we are the first to develop robust monthly LUR models for air pollution in Europe. These monthly LUR models, at a 25 m spatial resolution, enhance epidemiologists to better characterize Europe-wide intermediate-term health effects related to air pollution, facilitating investigations into critical exposure time windows in birth cohort studies.

Exposure to air pollution and risk of respiratory tract infections in the adult Danish population-a nationwide study

OBJECTIVES

The association between air pollution and risk of respiratory tract infection (RTI) in adults needs to be clarified in settings with low to moderate levels of air pollution. We investigated this in the Danish population between 2004 and 2016.

METHODS

We included 3 653 490 persons aged 18-64 years in a nested case-control study. Exposure was defined as the average daily concentration at the individual's residential address of CO, NOX, NO2, O3, SO2, NH3, PPM2.5, black carbon, organic carbon, mineral dust, sea salt, secondary inorganic aerosols, SO42-, NO3-, NH4+, secondary organic aerosols, PM2.5, and PM10 during a 3-month exposure window. RTIs were defined by hospitalization for RTIs. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and 95% CIs were estimated comparing highest with lowest decile of exposure using conditional logistic regression models.

RESULTS

In total, 188 439 incident cases of RTI were identified. Exposure to most air pollutants was positively associated with risk of RTI. For example, NO2 showed an IRR of 1.52 (CI: 1.48-1.55), and PM2.5 showed an IRR of 1.45 (CI: 1.40-1.50). In contrast, exposure to sea salt, PM10, NH3, and O3 was negatively associated with a risk of RTIs.

DISCUSSION

In this nationwide study comprising adults, exposure to air pollution was associated with risk of RTIs and subgroups hereof. Sea salt, PM10, NH3, and O3 may be proxies for rural areas, as the levels of these species in Denmark are higher near the western coastlines and/or in rural areas with fewer combustion sources.

Long-term exposure to low-level air pollution and greenness and mortality in Northern Europe. The Life-GAP project

BACKGROUND

Air pollution has been linked to mortality, but there are few studies examining the association with different exposure time windows spanning across several decades. The evidence for the effects of green space and mortality is contradictory.

OBJECTIVE

We investigated all-cause mortality in relation to exposure to particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10), black carbon (BC), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ozone (O3) and greenness (normalized difference vegetation index - NDVI) across different exposure time windows.

METHODS

The exposure assessment was based on a combination of the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model and the Urban Background Model for the years 1990, 2000 and 2010. The analysis included a complete case dataset with 9,135 participants from the third Respiratory Health in Northern Europe study (RHINE III), aged 40-65 years in 2010, with mortality follow-up to 2021. We performed Cox proportional hazard models, adjusting for potential confounders.

RESULTS

Altogether, 327 (3.6 %) persons died in the period 2010-2021. Increased exposures in 1990 of PM2.5, PM10, BC and NO2 were associated with increased all-cause mortality hazard ratios of 1.40 (95 % CI1.04-1.87 per 5 μg/m3), 1.33 (95 % CI: 1.02-1.74 per 10 μg/m3), 1.16 (95 % CI: 0.98-1.38 per 0.4 μg/m3) and 1.17 (95 % CI: 0.92-1.50 per 10 μg/m3), respectively. No statistically significant associations were observed between air pollution and mortality in other time windows. O3 showed an inverse association with mortality, while no association was observed between greenness and mortality. Adjusting for NDVI increased the hazard ratios for PM2.5, PM10, BC and NO2 exposures in 1990. We did not find significant interactions between greenness and air pollution metrics.

CONCLUSION

Long term exposure to even low levels of air pollution is associated with mortality. Opening up for a long latency period, our findings indicate that air pollution exposures over time may be even more harmful than anticipated.

Medium term moderate to low-level air pollution exposure is associated with higher C-reactive protein among healthy Danish blood donors

Air pollution is a significant contributor to the global burden of disease with a plethora of associated health effects such as pulmonary and systemic inflammation. C-reactive protein (CRP) is associated with a wide range of diseases and is associated with several exposures. Studies on the effect of air pollution exposure on CRP levels in low to moderate pollution settings have shown inconsistent results. In this cross-sectional study high sensitivity CRP measurements on 18,463 Danish blood donors were linked to modelled air pollution data for NOx, NO2, O3, CO, SO2, NH3, mineral dust, black carbon, organic carbon, sea salt, secondary inorganic aerosols and its components, primary PM2.5, secondary organic aerosols, total PM2.5, and total PM10 at their residential address over the previous month. Associations were analysed using ordered logistic regression with CRP quartile as individuals outcome and air pollution exposure as scaled deciles. Analyses were adjusted for health related and socioeconomic covariates using health questionnaires and Danish register data. Exposure to different air pollution components was generally associated with higher CRP (odds ratio estimates ranging from 1.11 to 1.67), while exposure to a few air pollution components was associated with lower CRP. For example, exposure to NO2 increased the odds of high CRP 1.32-fold (95%CI 1.16-1.49), while exposure to NH3 decreased the odds of high CRP 0.81-fold (95%CI 0.73-0.89). This large study among healthy individuals found air pollution exposure to be associated with increased levels of CRP even in a setting with low to moderate air pollution levels.

Long-term exposure to low-level particulate air pollution and Parkinson's disease diagnosis - A Finnish register-based study

BACKGROUND

There is mixed evidence for an association between particulate matter air pollution and Parkinson's disease despite biological plausibility.

OBJECTIVES

We studied the association between particulate air pollution, its components and Parkinson's disease (PD) risk.

METHODS

We conducted a nested case-control study within the population of Finland using national registers. A total of 22,189 incident PD cases diagnosed between 1996 and 2015 were matched by age, sex and region with up to seven controls (n = 148,009) per case. Time weighted average air pollution exposure to particulate matter and its components was modelled at the residential addresses, accounting for move history, for the 16 years preceding diagnosis. Conditional logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the association between air pollution and PD. Different exposure periods (6-16 years, 11-16 years, 5-10 years, 0-5 years) before the index date (date of PD diagnosis) were applied.

RESULTS

Time-weighted average exposures were relatively low at 12.1 ± 6.5 μg/m3 (mean ± SD) for PM10 and 7.7 ± 3.2 μg/m3 for PM2.5. No associations were found between PM2.5 or PM10 exposure 6-16 years before index date and PD (OR: 0.99; 95% CI: 0.96, 1.02; per IQR of 3.9 μg/m3 and OR: 0.99; 95% CI: 0.96, 1.01; per IQR of 7.8 μg/m3, respectively). However, inverse associations were observed for the same exposure period with black carbon (OR: 0.96; 95% CI: 0.93, 0.99; per IQR of 0.6 μg/m3), sulphate (OR: 0.79; 95% CI: 0.68, 0.92; per IQR of 1.2 μg/m3), secondary organic aerosols (OR: 0.86; 95% CI: 0.80, 0.93; per IQR of 0.1 μg/m3) and sea salt (OR: 0.92; 95% CI: 0.87, 0.98; per IQR of 0.1 μg/m3).

DISCUSSION

Low-level particulate matter air pollution was not associated with increased risk of incident PD in this Finnish nationwide population. The observed weak inverse associations with specific particle components should be investigated further.

Perspectives on environment and health research in Denmark

AIMS

We provide an overview of nationwide environmental data available for Denmark and its linkage potentials to individual-level records with the aim of promoting research on the potential impact of the local surrounding environment on human health.

BACKGROUND

Researchers in Denmark have unique opportunities for conducting large population-based studies treating the entire Danish population as one big, open and dynamic cohort based on nationally complete population and health registries. So far, most research in this area has utilised individual- and family-level information to study the clustering of disease in families, comorbidities, risk of, and prognosis after, disease onset, and social gradients in disease risk. Linking environmental data in time and space to individuals enables novel possibilities for studying the health effects of the social, built and physical environment.

METHODS

We describe the possible linkage between individuals and their local surrounding environment to establish the exposome - that is, the total environmental exposure of an individual over their life course.

CONCLUSIONS

The currently available nationwide longitudinal environmental data in Denmark constitutes a valuable and globally rare asset that can help explore the impact of the exposome on human health.

Air pollution with NO2, PM2.5, and elemental carbon in relation to risk of breast cancer- a nationwide case-control study from Denmark

Air pollution with particulate matter is an established lung carcinogen. Studies have suggested an association with breast cancer, but the evidence is inconsistent.

METHODS

From nationwide registers, we identified all breast cancer cases (n = 55 745) in Denmark between 2000 and 2014. We matched one control for each case on age and year of birth. We used a multi-scale dispersion model to estimate outdoor concentrations of particulate matter <2.5 μm (PM_2.5), elemental carbon (EC) and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) as time-weighted average over all addresses up to 20 years prior to diagnosis. We calculated odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) by conditional logistic regression with adjustment for marital status, educational level, occupational status, personal income, region of origin, medication and area-level socio-economic indicators.

RESULTS

A 10 μg/m³ higher PM_2.5 was associated with an OR for breast cancer of 1.21 (95% CI: 1.11-1.33). The corresponding ORs for EC (per 1 μg/m³) and NO₂ (per 10 μg/m³) were 1.03 (95% CI: 1.00-1.07) and 1.03 (95% CI: 1.01-1.06), respectively. In multi-pollutant models, the OR for PM_2.5 changed only little, whereas ORs for EC or NO₂ approached the null. In an analysis of persons below 55 years, PM_2.5 was associated with an OR of 1.32 (95% CI: 1.09-1.60) per 10 μg/m³ increase.

CONCLUSION

We found evidence of an association between the investigated air pollutants and breast cancer, especially PM_2.5. There were indications that the association differed by age at diagnosis. We were not able to include all potential confounders and thus, results should be interpreted with caution.

PM2.5 air pollution components and mortality in Denmark

BACKGROUND

Ambient fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) causes millions of deaths every year worldwide. Identification of the most harmful types of PM_2.5 would facilitate efficient prevention strategies.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to investigate associations between components of PM_2.5 and mortality in a nation-wide Danish population.

METHODS

Our study base was Danes born 1921-1985 and aged 30-85 years, who were followed up for mortality from 1991 to 2015. We included 678,465 natural cause mortality cases and selected five age, sex and calendar time matched controls to each case from the study base. We retrieved the address history of the study population from Danish registries and assessed five-year average concentrations of eight PM_2.5 components using deterministic Chemistry-Transport Models air pollution models. We estimated mortality rate ratios (MRRs) by conditional logistic regression and adjusted for socio-demographical factors at individual and neighborhood level.

RESULTS

Single pollutant models showed the strongest associations between natural cause mortality and an interquartile increase in sulfate particles (SO₄^--) (MRR: 1.123; 95 % CI: 1.100-1.147 per 1.5 µg/m³) and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) (MRR: 1.054; 95 % CI: 1.048-1.061 per 0.050 µg/m³). Two-pollutant models showed robust associations between SO₄^-- and SOA and natural cause mortality. Elemental carbon and mineral dust showed robust associations with higher respiratory and lung cancer mortality.

CONCLUSION

This nation-wide study found robust associations between natural cause mortality and SO₄^-- particles and SOA, which is in line with the results of previous studies. Elemental carbon and mineral dust showed robust associations with higher respiratory and lung cancer mortality.

Present-day and future PM2.5 and O3-related global and regional premature mortality in the EVAv6.0 health impact assessment model

We used the EVAv6.0 system to estimate the present (2015) and future (2015-2050) global PM_2.5 and O₃-related premature mortalities, using simulated surface concentrations from the GISS-E2.1-G Earth system model. The PM_2.5-related global premature mortality is estimated to be 4.3 and 4.4 million by the non-linear and linear models, respectively. Ischemic heart diseases are found to be the leading cause of PM_2.5-related premature deaths, contributing by 35% globally. Both long-term and short-term O₃-related premature deaths are estimated to be around 1 million, globally. Overall, PM_2.5 and O₃-related premature mortality leads to 5.3-5.4 million premature deaths, globally. The global burden of premature deaths is mainly driven by the Asian region, which in 2015 contributes by 75% of the total global premature deaths. An increase from 6.2% to 8% in the PM_2.5 relative risk as recommended by the WHO leads to an increase of PM_2.5-related premature mortality by 28%, to 5.7 million. Finally, bias correcting the simulated PM_2.5 concentrations in 2015 leads to an increase of up to 73% in the global PM_2.5-related premature mortality, leading to a total number of global premature deaths of up to 7.7 million, implying the necessity of bias correction to get more robust health burden estimates. PM_2.5 and O₃-related premature mortality in 2050 decreases by up to 57% and 18%, respectively, due to emission reductions alone. However, the projected increase and aging of the population leads to increases of premature mortality by up to a factor of 2, showing that the population exposed to air pollution is more important than the level of air pollutants, highlighting that the population dynamics should be considered when setting up health assessment systems.

Europe-wide air pollution modeling from 2000 to 2019 using geographically weighted regression

Previous European land-use regression (LUR) models assumed fixed linear relationships between air pollution concentrations and predictors such as traffic and land use. We evaluated whether including spatially-varying relationships could improve European LUR models by using geographically weighted regression (GWR) and random forest (RF). We built separate LUR models for each year from 2000 to 2019 for NO2, O3, PM2.5 and PM10 using annual average monitoring observations across Europe. Potential predictors included satellite retrievals, chemical transport model estimates and land-use variables. Supervised linear regression (SLR) was used to select predictors, and then GWR estimated the potentially spatially-varying coefficients. We developed multi-year models using geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR). Five-fold cross-validation per year showed that GWR and GTWR explained similar spatial variations in annual average concentrations (average R2 = NO2: 0.66; O3: 0.58; PM10: 0.62; PM2.5: 0.77), which are better than SLR (average R2 = NO2: 0.61; O3: 0.46; PM10: 0.51; PM2.5: 0.75) and RF (average R2 = NO2: 0.64; O3: 0.53; PM10: 0.56; PM2.5: 0.67). The GTWR predictions and a previously-used method of back-extrapolating 2010 model predictions using CTM were overall highly correlated (R2 > 0.8) for all pollutants. Including spatially-varying relationships using GWR modestly improved European air pollution annual LUR models, allowing time-varying exposure-health risk models.

Health impacts of PM2.5 originating from residential wood combustion in four nordic cities

Background

Residential wood combustion (RWC) is one of the largest sources of fine particles (PM_2.5) in the Nordic cities. The current study aims to calculate the related health effects in four studied city areas in Sweden, Finland, Norway, and Denmark.

Methods

Health impact assessment (HIA) was employed as the methodology to quantify the health burden. Firstly, the RWC induced annual average PM_2.5 concentrations from local sources were estimated with air pollution dispersion modelling. Secondly, the baseline mortality rates were retrieved from the national health registers. Thirdly, the concentration-response function from a previous epidemiological study was applied. For the health impact calculations, the WHO-developed tool AirQ + was used.

Results

Amongst the studied city areas, the local RWC induced PM_2.5 concentration was lowest in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area (population-weighted annual average concentration 0.46 µg m^− 3) and highest in Oslo (2.77 µg m^− 3). Each year, particulate matter attributed to RWC caused around 19 premature deaths in Umeå (95% CI: 8–29), 85 in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area (95% CI: 35–129), 78 in Copenhagen (95% CI: 33–118), and 232 premature deaths in Oslo (95% CI: 97–346). The average loss of life years per premature death case was approximately ten years; however, in the whole population, this reflects on average a decrease in life expectancy by 0.25 (0.10–0.36) years. In terms of the relative contributions in cities, life expectancy will be decreased by 0.10 (95% CI: 0.05–0.16), 0.18 (95% CI: 0.07–0.28), 0.22 (95% CI: 0.09–0.33) and 0.63 (95% CI: 0.26–0.96) years in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area, Umeå, Copenhagen and Oslo respectively. The number of years of life lost was lowest in Umeå (172, 95% CI: 71–260) and highest in Oslo (2458, 95% CI: 1033–3669).

Conclusions

All four Nordic city areas have a substantial amount of domestic heating, and RWC is one of the most significant sources of PM_2.5. This implicates a substantial predicted impact on public health in terms of premature mortality. Thus, several public health measures are needed to reduce the RWC emissions.

Analysis of mortality metrics associated with a comprehensive range of disorders in Denmark, 2000 to 2018: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

The provision of different types of mortality metrics (e.g., mortality rate ratios [MRRs] and life expectancy) allows the research community to access a more informative set of health metrics. The aim of this study was to provide a panel of mortality metrics associated with a comprehensive range of disorders and to design a web page to visualize all results.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

In a population-based cohort of all 7,378,598 persons living in Denmark at some point between 2000 and 2018, we identified individuals diagnosed at hospitals with 1,803 specific categories of disorders through the International Classification of Diseases-10th Revision (ICD-10) in the National Patient Register. Information on date and cause of death was obtained from the Registry of Causes of Death. For each of the disorders, a panel of epidemiological and mortality metrics was estimated, including incidence rates, age-of-onset distributions, MRRs, and differences in life expectancy (estimated as life years lost [LYLs]). Additionally, we examined models that adjusted for measures of air pollution to explore potential associations with MRRs. We focus on 39 general medical conditions to simplify the presentation of results, which cover 10 broad categories: circulatory, endocrine, pulmonary, gastrointestinal, urogenital, musculoskeletal, hematologic, mental, and neurologic conditions and cancer. A total of 3,676,694 males and 3,701,904 females were followed up for 101.7 million person-years. During the 19-year follow-up period, 1,034,273 persons (14.0%) died. For 37 of the 39 selected medical conditions, mortality rates were larger and life expectancy shorter compared to the Danish general population. For these 37 disorders, MRRs ranged from 1.09 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.09 to 1.10) for vision problems to 7.85 (7.77 to 7.93) for chronic liver disease, while LYLs ranged from 0.31 (0.14 to 0.47) years (approximately 16 weeks) for allergy to 17.05 (16.95 to 17.15) years for chronic liver disease. Adjustment for air pollution had very little impact on the estimates; however, a limitation of the study is the possibility that the association between the different disorders and mortality could be explained by other underlying factors associated with both the disorder and mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we show estimates of incidence, age of onset, age of death, and mortality metrics (both MRRs and LYLs) for a comprehensive range of disorders. The interactive data visualization site (https://nbepi.com/atlas) allows more fine-grained analysis of the link between a range of disorders and key mortality estimates.

4D-Var Inversion of European NH3 Emissions Using CrIS NH3 Measurements and GEOS-Chem Adjoint With Bi-Directional and Uni-Directional Flux Schemes

We conduct the first 4D-Var inversion of NH₃ accounting for NH₃ bi-directional flux, using CrIS satellite NH₃ observations over Europe in 2016. We find posterior NH₃ emissions peak more in springtime than prior emissions at continental to national scales, and annually they are generally smaller than the prior emissions over central Europe, but larger over most of the rest of Europe. Annual posterior anthropogenic NH₃ emissions for 25 European Union members (EU25) are 25% higher than the prior emissions and very close (<2% difference) to other inventories. Our posterior annual anthropogenic emissions for EU25, the UK, the Netherlands, and Switzerland are generally 10%-20% smaller than when treating NH₃ fluxes as uni-directional emissions, while the monthly regional difference can be up to 34% (Switzerland in July). Compared to monthly mean in-situ observations, our posterior NH₃ emissions from both schemes generally improve the magnitude and seasonality of simulated surface NH₃ and bulk NH _x wet deposition throughout most of Europe, whereas evaluation against hourly measurements at a background site shows the bi-directional scheme better captures observed diurnal variability of surface NH₃. This contrast highlights the need for accurately simulating diurnal variability of NH₃ in assimilation of sun-synchronous observations and also the potential value of future geostationary satellite observations. Overall, our top-down ammonia emissions can help to examine the effectiveness of air pollution control policies to facilitate future air pollution management, as well as helping us understand the uncertainty in top-down NH₃ emissions estimates associated with treatment of NH₃ surface exchange.

Air pollution at the residence of Danish adults, by socio-demographic characteristics, morbidity, and address level characteristics

BACKGROUND

Exposure to outdoor air pollution is associated with adverse health effects. Previous studies have indicated higher levels of air pollution in socially deprived areas.

AIM

To investigate associations between air pollution and socio-demographic variables, comorbidity, stress, and green space at the residence in Denmark.

METHODS

We included 2,237,346 persons living in Denmark, aged 35 years or older in 2017. We used the high resolution, multi-scale DEHM/UBM/AirGIS air pollution modelling system to calculate mean concentrations of air pollution with PM_2.5, elemental carbon, ultrafine particles and NO₂ at residences held the preceding five years. We used nationwide registries to retrieve information about socio-demographic indicators at the individual and neighborhood levels. We used general linear regression models to analyze associations between socio-demographic indicators and air pollution at the residence.

RESULTS

Individuals with high SES (income, higher white-collar worker and high educational level) and of non-Danish origin were exposed to higher levels of air pollution than individuals of low SES and of Danish origin, respectively. We found comparable levels of air pollution according to sex, stress events and morbidity. For neighborhood level SES indicators, we found high air pollution levels in neighborhoods with low SES measured as proportion of social housing, sole providers, low income and unemployment. In contrast, we found higher air pollution levels in neighborhoods with higher educational level and a low proportion of manual labor. People living in an apartment and/or with little green space had higher air pollution levels.

CONCLUSION

In Denmark, high levels of residential air pollution were associated with higher individual SES and non-Danish origin. For neighborhood-level indicators of SES, no consistent pattern was observed. These results highlight the need for analyzing many different socio-demographic indicators to understand the complex associations between SES and exposure to air pollution.

Exposure to source-specific air pollution and risk for type 2 diabetes: a nationwide study covering Denmark

BACKGROUND

Only few epidemiological studies have investigated whether chronic exposure to air pollution from different sources have different impacts on risk of diabetes. We aimed to investigate associations between air pollution from traffic versus non-traffic sources and risk of type 2 diabetes in the Danish population.

METHODS

We estimated long-term exposure to traffic and non-traffic contributions of particulate matter with a diameter <2.5 µg (PM2.5), elemental carbon (EC), ultrafine particles (UFP) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) for all persons living in Denmark for the period 2005-17. In total, 2.6 million persons aged >35 years were included, of whom 148 020 developed type 2 diabetes during follow-up. We applied Cox proportional hazards models for analyses, using 5-year time-weighted running means of air pollution and adjustment for individual- and area-level demographic and socioeconomic covariates.

RESULTS

We found that 5-year exposure to all particle measures (PM2.5, UFP and EC) and NO2 were associated with higher type 2 diabetes risk. We observed that for UFP, EC and potentially PM2.5, the pollution originating from traffic was associated with higher risks than the non-traffic contributions, whereas for NO2 similar hazard ratios (HR) were observed. For example, in two-source models, hazard ratios (HRs) per interquartile change in traffic UFP, EC and PM2.5 were 1.025, 1.045 and 1.036, respectively, whereas for non-traffic UFP, EC and PM2.5, the HRs were 1.013, 1.018 and 1.001, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our finding of stronger associations with particulate matter from traffic compared with non-traffic sources implies that prevention strategies should focus on limiting traffic-related particulate matter air pollution.

Long-term residential exposure to air pollution and risk of testicular cancer in Denmark: A population-based case-control study

BACKGROUND

The incidence rate risk of testicular cancer has increased over the last four decades, and most significant increase has been among Caucasian men in Nordic countries. Second-generation immigrant studies indicate a significant role of environmental exposure in testicular cancer.

METHODS

We conducted a nationwide register-based case-control study, including 6,390 testicular cancer cases registered in the Danish Cancer Registry between 1989 and 2014. Up to four age-matched controls for each case (n=18,997) were randomly selected from Civil Registration System. Ambient air pollution levels were estimated at addresses of cases and controls with a state-of-the-art air pollution modeling system.

RESULTS

We mostly found ORs close to 1.00 and with 95% confidence intervals (CI) spanning 1.00. Exposure during the year preceding birth was associated with ORs for NO2 of 0.87 (95%CI: 0.77-0.97) per 10 µg/m3 and for organic carbon of 0.84 (95%CI: 0.72-0.98) per 1 µg/m3. Exposure during the first 10 years of life was associated with ORs for organic carbon of 0.79 (95%CI: 0.67-0.93) per 1 µg/m3, for O3 of 1.20 (95%CI: 1.07-1.34) per 10 µg/m3 and for secondary inorganic aerosols of 1.07 (95%CI: 1.00-1.15) per 1 µg/m3.

CONCLUSIONS

Early-life exposure to NO2 and OC was associated with lower risk for testicular cancer whereas early-life exposure to O3 and SIA was associated with higher risk.

IMPACT

We report both positive and negative associations between ambient air pollutants and risk of testicular, dependent on pollutant, exposure time window and age at diagnosis. This is the first study to investigate such associations.

Long-Term Exposure to Transportation Noise and Risk for Type 2 Diabetes in a Nationwide Cohort Study from Denmark

BACKGROUND

Epidemiologic studies have linked transportation noise to increased morbidity and mortality, particularly for cardiovascular outcomes. However, studies investigating metabolic outcomes such as diabetes are limited and have focused only on noise exposures estimated for the loudest residential façade.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to examine the influence of long-term residential exposure to transportation noise at the loudest and quietest residential façades and the risk for type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

Road traffic and railway noise exposures (Lden) at the most and least exposed façades were estimated for all dwellings in Denmark during 1990-2017. Aircraft noise was estimated in 5-dB categories. Ten-year time-weighted mean noise exposures were estimated for 3.56 million individuals ≥35 years of age. From 2000 to 2017, 233,912 incident cases of type 2 diabetes were identified using hospital and prescription registries, with a mean follow-up of 12.9 y. We used Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for individual- and area-level covariates and long-term residential air pollution. The population-attributable fraction (PAF) was also computed.

RESULTS

Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for type 2 diabetes in association with 10-dB increases in 10-y mean road traffic noise at the most and least exposed façades, respectively, were 1.05 (95% CI: 1.04, 1.05) and 1.09 (95% CI: 1.08, 1.10). Following subsequent adjustment for fine particulate matter [particulate matter ≤2.5μm in aerodynamic diameter] (10-y mean), the HRs (CIs) were 1.03 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.04) and 1.08 (95% CI: 1.07, 1.09), respectively. For railway noise, the HRs per 10-dB increase in 10-y mean exposure were 1.03 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.04) and 1.02 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.04) for the most and least exposed façades, respectively. Categorical models supported a linear exposure-outcome relationship for road traffic noise and, to a lesser extent, for railway noise. Aircraft noise >45 dB was associated with a 1-4% higher likelihood of type 2 diabetes compared with those who were unexposed. We found road traffic and railway noise associated with a PAF of 8.5% and 1.4%, respectively, of the diabetes cases.

DISCUSSION

Long-term exposure to road, railway, and possibly aircraft traffic noise was associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes in a nationwide cohort of Danish adults. Our findings suggest that diabetes should be included when estimating the burden of disease due to transportation noise. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9146.

Long-term exposure to road traffic noise and stroke incidence: a Danish Nurse Cohort study

BACKGROUND

Road traffic noise has been linked to increased risk of ischemic heart disease, yet evidence on stroke shows mixed results. We examine the association between long-term exposure to road traffic noise and incidence of stroke, overall and by subtype (ischemic or hemorrhagic), after adjustment for air pollution.

METHODS

Twenty-five thousand six hundred and sixty female nurses from the Danish Nurse Cohort recruited in 1993 or 1999 were followed for stroke-related first-ever hospital contact until December 31st, 2014. Full residential address histories since 1970 were obtained and annual means of road traffic noise (L_den [dB]) and air pollutants (particulate matter with diameter < 2.5 μm and < 10 μm [PM_2.5 and PM₁₀], nitrogen dioxide [NO₂], nitrogen oxides [NOx]) were determined using validated models. Time-varying Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) (95% confidence intervals [CI]) for the associations of one-, three-, and 23-year running means of L_den preceding stroke (all, ischemic or hemorrhagic), adjusting for stroke risk factors and air pollutants. The World Health Organization and the Danish government's maximum exposure recommendations of 53 and 58 dB, respectively, were explored as potential L_den thresholds.

RESULTS

Of 25,660 nurses, 1237 developed their first stroke (1089 ischemic, 148 hemorrhagic) during 16 years mean follow-up. For associations between a 1-year mean of L_den and overall stroke incidence, the estimated HR (95% CI) in the fully adjusted model was 1.06 (0.98-1.14) per 10 dB, which attenuated to 1.01 (0.93-1.09) and 1.00 (0.91-1.09) in models further adjusted for PM_2.5 or NO₂, respectively. Associations for other exposure periods or separately for ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke were similar. There was no evidence of a threshold association between L_den and stroke.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term exposure to road traffic noise was suggestively positively associated with the risk of overall stroke, although not after adjusting for air pollution.

Exposure to ambient air pollution during childhood and subsequent risk of self-harm: A national cohort study

A growing body of evidence indicates that exposure to air pollution not only impacts on physical health but is also linked with a deterioration in mental health. We conducted the first study to investigate exposure to ambient particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 2.5 μm (PM_2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) during childhood and subsequent self-harm risk. The study cohort included persons born in Denmark between January 1, 1979 and December 31, 2006 (N = 1,424,670), with information on daily exposures to PM_2.5 and NO₂ at residence from birth to 10th birthday. Follow-up began from 10th birthday until first hospital-presenting self-harm episode, death, or December 31, 2016, whichever came first. Incidence rate ratios estimated by Poisson regression models revealed a dose relationship between increasing PM_2.5 exposure and rising self-harm risk. Exposure to 17-19 μg/m³ of PM_2.5 on average per day from birth to 10th birthday was associated with a 1.45 fold (95% CI 1.37-1.53) subsequently elevated self-harm risk compared with a mean daily exposure of <13 μg/m³, whilst those exposed to 19 μg/m³ or above on average per day had a 1.59 times (1.45-1.75) elevated risk. Higher mean daily exposure to NO₂ during childhood was also linked with increased self-harm risk, but the dose-response relationship observed was less evident than for PM_2.5. Covariate adjustment attenuated the associations, but risk remained independently elevated. Although causality cannot be assumed, these novel findings indicate a potential etiological involvement of ambient air pollution in the development of mental ill health.

A life course approach to understanding associations between natural environments and mental well-being for the Danish blood donor cohort

Natural environments have been associated with mental health benefits, but globally access to these benefits is threatened by urban development and densification. However, it remains unclear how natural environments relate to mental health and how consistent the association is across populations. Here we use a life-course approach with a population consisting of 66 194 individuals from the Danish Blood Donor Study (DBDS) to investigate the association between green and blue space (e.g. parks and lakes) and self-evaluated mental well-being. Green and blue space was identified from remotely-sensed images from the Landsat program, while mental well-being was based on the mental component score (MCS) calculated using the 12-item short form health survey. We use multivariate linear regression models and logistic regression models to quantify the associations. We adjust for additional environmental (urbanization, and air pollution) and lifestyle factors (smoking, body mass index, socioeconomic status, and physical activity) and specifically evaluate the role of physical activity and air pollution as possible mediating factors. We found a positive association between the MCS and current and childhood green space, and a non-significant association for current and childhood blue space. Adjusting for environmental and the other factors attenuated the effect sizes indicating that a broad range of factors determine mental well-being. Physical activity and air pollution were both associated with the MCS as possible mediators of green space associations. In addition, the odds for successfully completing tasks', seeing others, and feeling less downhearted increased with higher levels of green space, and the odds of feeling calm increased with higher levels of blue space. In conclusion, we found support for an association between green and, to less degree, blue space and mental well-being throughout different life stages. In addition, we found a positive association with individual indicators of mental well-being such as being productive, feeling less downhearted and calmer, and being social. The healthy blood donor effect and the bias towards urban residency may explain why we found smaller effect sizes between green and blue space and mental well-being for this generally healthy and resourceful cohort compared to previous studies.

Early childhood exposure to ambient air pollution is associated with increased risk of paediatric asthma: An administrative cohort study from Stockholm, Sweden

INTRODUCTION

Asthma is a complex, heterogeneous disease and one of the most common chronic diseases among children. Exposure to ambient air pollution in early life and childhood may influence asthma aetiology, but it is uncertain which specific components of air pollution and exposure windows are of importance. The role of socio-economic status (SES) is also unclear. The aims of the present study are, therefore, to investigate how various exposure windows of different pollutants affect risk-induced asthma in early life and to explore the possible effect SES has on that relationship.

METHODS

The study population was constructed using register data on all singleton births in the greater Stockholm area between 2006 and 2013. Exposure to ambient black carbon (BC), fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), primary organic carbon (pOC) secondary organic aerosols (SOA), secondary inorganic aerosols, and oxidative potential at the residential address was modelled as mean values for the entire pregnancy period, the first year of life and the first three years of life. Swedish national registers were used to define the outcome: asthma diagnosis assessed at hospital during the first six years of life. Hazard ratios (HRs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were modelled with Cox proportional hazards model with age as the underlying time-scale, adjusting for relevant potential confounding variables.

RESULTS

An increased risk for developing childhood asthma was observed in association with exposure to PM_2.5, pOC and SOA during the first three years of life. With an interquartile range increase in exposure, the HRs were 1.06 (95% CI: 1.01-1.10), 1.05 (95% CI: 1.02-1.09) and 1.02 (95% CI: 1.00-1.04), for PM_2.5, pOC and SOA, respectively, in the fully adjusted models. Exposure during foetal life or the first year of life was not associated with asthma risk, and the other pollutants were not statistically significantly associated with increased risk. Furthermore, the increase in risk associated with PM_2.5 and the components BC, pOC and SOA were stronger in areas with lower SES.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that exposure to air pollution during the first three years of life may increase the risk for asthma in early childhood. The findings further imply a possible increased vulnerability to air pollution-attributed asthma among low SES children.

Transportation noise and risk for colorectal cancer: a nationwide study covering Denmark

PURPOSE

Few studies have suggested that traffic noise is a risk factor for cancer, but evidence is inconclusive. We aimed to investigate whether road traffic and railway noise are associated with risk of colorectal cancer.

METHODS

We obtained address history for all 3.5 million people above 40 years of age and living in Denmark for the period 1990-2017 and estimated road traffic and railway noise (L_den) at the most and least exposed facades of all addresses as well as air pollution (PM_2.5). During follow-up (2000-2017), 35,881 persons developed colon cancer and 19,755 developed rectal cancer. Information on individual and area-level demographic and socioeconomic variables was collected from Danish registries. We analyzed data using Cox proportional hazards models, including traffic noise as time-varying 10-year average exposure.

RESULTS

Exposure to road traffic noise at the most exposed façade was associated with an incidence rate ratio and 95% confidence interval for proximal colon cancer of 1.018 (0.999-1.038) per 10 dB higher noise. We observed no associations for road traffic noise at the least exposed façade or for railway noise in relation to proximal colon cancer. Also, we found no association between road traffic or railway noise and risk for distal colon cancer or rectal cancer.

CONCLUSION

Traffic noise did not seem associated with higher risk for colorectal cancer, although the suggestion of a slightly higher risk of proximal colon cancer following exposure to road traffic noise warrants further research.

Long-Term Residential Exposure to Particulate Matter and Its Components, Nitrogen Dioxide and Ozone-A Northern Sweden Cohort Study on Mortality

This study aims to estimate the mortality risk associated with air pollution in a Swedish cohort with relatively low exposure. Air pollution models were used to estimate annual mean concentrations of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 µm (PM_2.5), primary emitted carbonaceous particles (BC/pOC), sea salt, chemically formed particles grouped as secondary inorganic and organic aerosols (SIA and SOA) as well as ozone (O₃) and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂). The exposure, as a moving average was calculated based on home address for the time windows 1 year (lag 1), 1-5 years (lag 1-5) and 1-10 years (lag 1-10) preceding the death. During the study period, 1151 cases of natural mortality, 253 cases of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and 113 cases of respiratory and lung cancer mortality were observed during 369,394 person-years of follow-up. Increased natural mortality was observed in association with NO₂ (3% [95% CI -8-14%] per IQR) and PM_2.5 (2% [95% CI -5-9%] for an IQR increase) and its components, except for SOA where a decreased risk was observed. Higher risk increases were observed for CVD mortality (e.g., 18% [95% CI 1-39%] per IQR for NO₂). These findings at low exposure levels are relevant for future decisions concerning air quality policies.

Long-Term Exposure to Road Traffic Noise and Air Pollution, and Incident Atrial Fibrillation in the Danish Nurse Cohort

BACKGROUND

Associations between long-term exposure to air pollution and road traffic noise have been established for ischemic heart disease, but findings have been mixed for atrial fibrillation (AF).

OBJECTIVES

The goal of the study was to examine associations of long-term exposure to road traffic noise and air pollution with AF.

METHODS

Time-varying Cox regression models were used to estimate associations of 1-, 3-, and 23-y mean road traffic noise and air pollution exposures with AF incidence in 23,528 women enrolled in the Danish Nurse Cohort (age >44y at baseline in 1993 or 1999). AF diagnoses were ascertained via the Danish National Patient Register. Annual mean weighted 24-h average road traffic noise levels (Lden) at the nurses' residences, since 1970, were estimated using the Nord2000 model, and annual mean levels of particulate matter with a diameter <2.5μm (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) were estimated using the DEHM/UBM/AirGIS model.

RESULTS

Of 23,528 nurses with no prior AF diagnosis at the cohort baseline, 1,522 developed AF during follow-up. In a fully adjusted model (including PM2.5), the estimated risk of AF was 18% higher [hazard ratio (HR); 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.18; 1.02, 1.36] in nurses with residential 3-y mean Lden levels >58 dB vs. <48 dB, with similar findings for 1-y mean exposures. A 3.9-μg/m3 increase in 3-y mean PM2.5 was associated with incident AF before and after adjustment for concurrent exposure to road traffic noise (HR 1.09; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.20 and 1.08; 95% CI: 0.97, 1.19, respectively). Associations with 1-y mean PM2.5 exposures were positive but closer to the null and not significant. Associations with NO2 were null for all time periods before and after adjustment for road traffic noise and inverse when adjusted for concurrent PM2.5.

CONCLUSION

Our analysis of prospective data from a cohort of Danish female nurses followed for up to 14 y provided suggestive evidence of independent associations between incident AF and 1- and 3-y exposures to road traffic noise and PM2.5. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP8090.

Contribution of fine particulate matter to present and future premature mortality over Europe: A non-linear response

The World Health Organization estimates that around 7 million people die every year from exposure to fine particles (PM2.5) inpolluted air. Here, the number of premature deaths in Europe from different diseases associated to the ambient exposure to PM2.5 have here been studied both for present (1991-2010) and future periods (2031-2050, RCP8.5 scenario). This contribution combines different state-of-the-art approaches (use of high-resolution climate/chemistry simulations over Europe for providing air quality data; use of different baseline mortality data for specific European regions; inclusion of future population projections and dynamical changes for 2050 obtained from the United Nations (UN) Population Projections or use of non-linear exposure-response functions) to estimate the premature mortality due to PM2.5. The mortality endpoints included in this study are Lung Cancer (LC), Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), Cerebrovascular Disease (CEV), Ischemic Heart Disease (IHD), Lower Respiratory Infection (LRI) and other Non-Communicable Diseases (other NCDs). Different risk ratio and baseline mortalities for each disease end each age range have been estimated individually. The results indicate that the annual excess mortality rate from fine particulate matter in Europe is 904,000 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 733,100-1,067,800], increasing by 73% in 2050s (1,560,000; 95% CI 1,260,000-1,840,000); meanwhile population decreases from 808 to 806 million according to the UN estimations. The results show that IHD is the main cause of premature mortality in Europe associated to PM2.5 (around 48%) both for the present and future periods. Despite several marked regional differences, premature deaths associated to all the endpoints included in this study will increase in the future period due to the climate penalty but especially because of changes in the population projected and its aging.

Long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and road traffic noise and asthma incidence in adults: The Danish Nurse cohort

BACKGROUND

Ambient air pollution is likely a risk factor for asthma, and recent evidence suggests the possible relevance of road traffic noise.

OBJECTIVES

We examined the associations of long-term exposure to air pollution and road traffic noise with adult-asthma incidence.

METHODS

We followed 28,731 female nurses (age > 44 years) from the Danish Nurse Cohort, recruited in 1993 and 1999, for first hospital contact for asthma from 1977 until 2015. We estimated residential annual mean concentrations of particulate matter with diameter < 2.5 µm (PM_2.5) since 1990 and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) since 1970 with the Danish DEHM/UBM/AirGIS modeling system, and road traffic noise (L_den) since 1970 with the Nord2000 model. Time-varying Cox regression models were used to associate air pollution and road traffic noise exposure with asthma incidence.

RESULTS

During 18.6 years' mean follow-up, 528 out of 23,093 participants had hospital contact for asthma. The hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals for asthma incidence associated with 3-year moving average exposures were 1.29 (1.03, 1.61) per 6.3 µg/m³ for PM_2.5, 1.16 (1.07, 1.27) per 8.2 µg/m³ for NO₂, and 1.12 (1.00, 1.25) per 10 dB for L_den. The HR for NO₂ remained unchanged after adjustment for either PM_2.5 or L_den, while the HRs for PM_2.5 and L_den attenuated to unity after adjustment for NO₂.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term exposure to air pollution was associated with adult-asthma incidence independently of road traffic noise, with NO₂ most relevant. Road traffic noise was not independently associated with adult-asthma incidence.

Long-term air pollution and road traffic noise exposure and COPD: the Danish Nurse Cohort

BACKGROUND

While air pollution has been linked to the development of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), evidence on the role of environmental noise is just emerging. We examined the associations of long-term exposure to air pollution and road traffic noise with COPD incidence.

METHODS

We defined COPD incidence for 24 538 female nurses from the Danish Nurse Cohort (age>44 years) as the first hospital contact between baseline (1993 or 1999) and 2015. We estimated residential annual mean concentrations of particulate matter with diameter<2.5 µm (PM_2.5) since 1990 and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) since 1970 by the Danish DEHM/UBM/AirGIS modeling system, and road traffic noise (L_den) since 1970 by the Nord2000 model. Time-varying Cox regression models were applied to assess the associations of air pollution and road traffic noise with COPD incidence.

RESULTS

977 nurses developed COPD during 18.6 years' mean follow-up. We observed associations with COPD for all three exposures with hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of 1.19 (1.01, 1.41) per 6.26 µg·m^-3 for PM_2.5, 1.13 (1.05, 1.20) per 8.19 µg·m^-3 for NO₂, and 1.15 (1.06, 1.25) per 10 dB for L_den. Associations with NO₂ and L_den attenuated slightly after mutual adjustment, but were robust to adjustment for PM_2.5. Associations with PM_2.5 were attenuated to null after adjustment for either NO₂ or L_den. No potential interaction effect was observed between air pollutants and noise.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term exposure to air pollution, especially traffic-related NO₂, and road traffic noise were independently associated with COPD.

Exposure to PM2.5 constituents and risk of adult leukemia in Denmark: A population-based case-control study

BACKGROUND

Leukemia is one of the most common forms of hematologic malignancy, which can affect people of all ages. We previously showed an association between exposure to ambient particulate matter 2.5 μg (PM_2.5) and risk for leukemia in adults. The aim of this study was to investigate which PM_2.5 constituents were responsible for our previous observation.

METHODS

This is a nationwide register-based case-control study. We identified 14,983 persons diagnosed with leukemia at age 20 or above, 1989-2014, in the Danish Cancer Registry. We selected up to four sex and age-matched controls per case at random from the entire Danish population (n = 51,613). We modelled concentrations of ambient PM_2.5 and its constituents at the addresses of cases and controls for the 10-year period before index date with a state-of-the-art multiscale air pollution modeling system. We used conditional logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) adjusted for individual and neighborhood level socio-demographic variables.

RESULT

The results showed higher risk for overall leukemia in association with interquartile range exposure to PM_2.5 (OR = 1.09; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.17), black carbon (BC) (OR = 1.02; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.03), secondary inorganic aerosols (SIA) (OR = 1.15; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.29) and its components ammonium (NH₄) (OR = 1.08; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.17) and nitrate (NO₃) (OR = 1.08; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.14). In leukemia subtype analysis, statistically significant associations were found for AML with PM_2.5 (OR = 1.14; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.29), BC (OR = 1.03; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.07), SIA (OR = 1.23; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.51), NH₄ (OR = 1.16; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.34) and NO₃ (OR = 1.12; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.24). The association between PM_2.5 and leukemia persisted in two pollutants models including sum of primary emitted black and organic carbon (BC + OC), secondary organic aerosols (SOA), or sea-salt. The association between black carbon (BC) and leukemia persisted in two pollutants models including organic carbon (OC). The three pollutant model with sulfate (SO₄), NH₄ and NO₃ showed an association with NO₃ but not with SO₄ or NH₄.

CONCLUSION

Ambient concentrations of the PM_2.5 components BC, NH₄ and NO₃ at the residence showed associations with risk of incident leukemia in adults.

The Association between Residential Green Space in Childhood and Development of Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder: A Population-Based Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Access to green space has been hypothesized to have a beneficial impact on children's mental well-being and cognitive development. The underlying mechanisms of the mental health benefits of green space are not fully understood, but different pathways have been suggested, such as the psychologically restoring capacities of green space, the ability to facilitate physical activity and social cohesion, and the mitigation of exposure to air pollution.

OBJECTIVES

In this nationwide cohort study, we investigated associations between residential green space in early childhood and a clinical diagnosis of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD).

METHODS

The cohort included individuals, who were born in Denmark between 1992 and 2007 (n=814,689) and followed for a diagnosis of ADHD from age 5, during the period 1997-2016. We used the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) as a measure of vegetation greenness surrounding each residential address in a quadratic area of 210m×210m in which the residence was located in the center of the quadrate. Individual exposure to green space was calculated as the average of NDVI surrounding each individual's residential address (or addresses if more than one) between birth and the fifth birthday. Multilevel modeling was used to estimate the incidence rate ratios (IRRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for ADHD, according to exposure level and adjusted for calendar time, age, sex, parental socioeconomic status, neighborhood level socioeconomic status, and urbanicity.

RESULTS

Individuals living in areas defined by sparse green vegetation (lowest decile of NDVI) had an increased risk of developing ADHD, compared with individuals living in areas within the highest decile of NDVI (IRR=1.55; 95% CI: 1.46, 1.65). Adjusting for the known confounders attenuated the result, but the association remained (IRR=1.20; 95% CI: 1.13, 1.28).

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that lower levels of green space in residential surroundings, during early childhood, may be associated with a higher risk of developing ADHD. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP6729.

Long-term exposure to air pollution and mortality in the Danish population a nationwide study

BACKGROUND

Studies have shown higher mortality in association with exposure to air pollution. We investigated this association with focus on differences between socioeconomic groups.

METHODS

We included all Danes born between 1921 and 1985 aged 30-85 years from 1991 to 2015 (N = 4,401,348). We applied a nested case-control design and identified those who died during follow-up and selected five controls per case. We modelled NO2, fine particulate matter (PM2·5), black carbon (BC) particles, and ozone (O3) as five-year average concentrations at the residential addresses of 672,895 all natural cause mortality cases and 3,426,533 controls in conditional logistic regression with adjustment for individual and neighbourhood level socio-demographic variables.

FINDINGS

In single pollutant models, a 10 μg/m3 (BC: 1 μg/m3) increase in NO2, PM2·5, BC, and O3 was associated with natural cause mortality rate ratios (MRR) of 1·05 (95% confidence interval 1·04-1·06), 1·08 (1·04-1·13), 1·05 (1·02-1·08), and 0·96 (0·95-0·97), respectively. The patterns were similar for respiratory disease and lung cancer mortality. O3 was associated with higher risk of CVD mortality. The rate differences for a unit increase in PM2·5, NO2, and BC were largest among those with the lowest income; this pattern was not detected when considering the relative risk measure, MRR.

INTERPRETATION

Long-term concentration of air pollution at the residence was associated with higher natural cause mortality in the Danish population and the strength of the association differed by socioeconomic group. We recommend that future studies express socioeconomic differences in absolute rather than relative risk.

Air pollution exposure at the residence and risk of childhood cancers in Denmark: A nationwide register-based case-control study

BACKGROUND

The etiology of childhood cancer is poorly understood. The role of environmental factors, including air pollution (AP) exposure, has been addressed previously, but results so far have been inconclusive. In this study, we investigate the association between long-term AP exposures in relation to childhood cancer subtypes in Denmark (1981-2013).

METHODS

We conducted a nationwide register-based case-control study. We identified 7745 incident cases of childhood cancers (<20 years) in the Danish Cancer Registry. Four randomly selected (cancer-free) controls were matched to each case according to sex and date of birth. We modelled concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), fine particles (PM_2·5), and black carbon (BC) at all addresses and calculated a time-weighted average from birth to index-date with a state-of-the-art multiscale AP modelling system. We analyzed the risk of childhood cancer in conditional logistic regression models adjusted for socio-demographic variables obtained from registers at the individual and neighborhood level.

FINDINGS

The main analyses included 5045 cases and 18,179 controls. For all cancers combined, we observed odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) of 0·97 (0·94, 1·01) per 10 µg/m³ NO₂, 0·89 (0·82, 0·98) per 5 µg/m³ PM_2·5, and 0·94 (0·88, 1·01) per 1 µg/m³ BC, respectively. Most notably, we observed a higher risk of Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma (NHL) with higher childhood AP exposure with ORs and 95% CIs of 1·21 (0·94, 1·55) per 10 µg/m³ NO₂, 2·11 (1·10, 4·01) per 5 µg/m³ PM_2·5, and 1·68 (1·06, 2·66) per 1 µg/m³ BC, respectively. We observed indications of increased risks for other types of childhood cancer, however, with very wide CIs including 1.

INTERPRETATIONS

The findings of this nation-wide study propose a role of AP in the development of childhood NHL, but more large-scale studies are needed.

FUNDING

NordForsk Project #75007.

Components of particulate matter air-pollution and brain tumors

BACKGROUND

Air pollution is an established carcinogen. Evidence for an association with brain tumors is, however, inconclusive. We investigated if individual particulate matter constituents were associated with brain tumor risk.

METHODS

From comprehensive national registers, we identified all (n = 12 928) brain tumor cases, diagnosed in Denmark in the period 1989-2014, and selected 22 961 controls, matched on age, sex and year of birth. We established address histories and estimated 10-year mean residential outdoor concentrations of particulate matter < 2.5 µm, primarily emitted black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC), and combined carbon (OC/BC), as well as secondary inorganic and organic PM air pollutants from a detailed dispersion model. We used conditional logistic regression to calculate odds ratios (OR) per inter quartile range (IQR) exposure. We adjusted for income, marital and employment status as well as area-level socio-demographic characteristics.

RESULTS

Total tumors of the brain were associated with OC/BC (OR: 1.053, 95%CI: 1.005-1.103, per IQR). The data suggested strongest associations for malignant tumors with ORs per IQR for OC/BC, BC and OC of 1.063 (95% CI: 1.007-1.123), 1.036 (95% CI: 1.006-1.067) and 1.030 (95%CI: 0.979-1.085), respectively. The results did not indicate adverse effects of other PM components.

CONCLUSIONS

This large, population based study showed associations between primary emitted carbonaceous particles and risk for malignant brain tumors. As the first of its kind, this study needs replication.

Long-term exposure to low levels of air pollution and mortality adjusting for road traffic noise: A Danish Nurse Cohort study

BACKGROUND

The association between air pollution and mortality is well established, yet some uncertainties remain: there are few studies that account for road traffic noise exposure or that consider in detail the shape of the exposure-response function for cause-specific mortality outcomes, especially at low-levels of exposure.

OBJECTIVES

We examined the association between long-term exposure to particulate matter [(PM) with a diameter of <2.5 µm (PM_2.5), <10 µm (PM₁₀)], and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and total and cause-specific mortality, accounting for road traffic noise.

METHODS

We used data on 24,541 females (age > 44 years) from the Danish Nurse Cohort, who were recruited in 1993 or 1999, and linked to the Danish Causes of Death Register for follow-up on date of death and its cause, until the end of 2013. Annual mean concentrations of PM_2.5, PM_10, and NO₂ at the participants' residences since 1990 were estimated using the Danish DEHM/UBM/AirGIS dispersion model, and annual mean road traffic noise levels (L_den) were estimated using the Nord2000 model. We examined associations between the three-year running mean of PM_2.5, PM₁₀, and NO₂ with total and cause-specific mortality by using time-varying Cox Regression models, adjusting for individual characteristics and residential road traffic noise.

RESULTS

During the study period, 3,708 nurses died: 843 from cardiovascular disease (CVD), 310 from respiratory disease (RD), and 64 from diabetes. In the fully adjusted models, including road traffic noise, we detected associations of three-year running mean of PM_2.5 with total (hazard ratio; 95% confidence interval: 1.06; 1.01-1.11), CVD (1.14; 1.03-1.26), and diabetes mortality (1.41; 1.05-1.90), per interquartile range of 4.39 μg/m³. In a subset of the cohort exposed to PM_2.5 < 20 µg/m³, we found even stronger association with total (1.19; 1.11-1.27), CVD (1.27; 1.01-1.46), RD (1.27; 1.00-1.60), and diabetes mortality (1.44; 0.83-2.48). We found similar associations with PM₁₀ and none with NO₂. All associations were robust to adjustment for road traffic noise.

DISCUSSION

Long-term exposure to low-levels of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ is associated with total mortality, and mortality from CVD, RD, and diabetes. Associations were even stronger at the PM_2.5 levels below EU limit values and were independent of road traffic noise.

Relationship of leukaemias with long-term ambient air pollution exposures in the adult Danish population

Background

Few population-based epidemiological studies of adults have examined the relationship between air pollution and leukaemias.

Methods

Using Danish National Cancer Registry data and Danish DEHM-UBM-AirGIS system-modelled air pollution exposures, we examined whether particulate matter (PM_2.5), black carbon (BC), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and ozone (O₃) averaged over 1, 5 or 10 years were associated with adult leukaemia in general or by subtype. In all, 14,986 adult cases diagnosed 1989–2014 and 51,624 age, sex and time-matched controls were included. Separate conditional logistic regression models, adjusted for socio-demographic factors, assessed exposure to each pollutant with leukaemias.

Results

Fully adjusted models showed a higher risk of leukaemia with higher 1-, 5- and 10-year-average exposures to PM_2.5 prior to diagnosis (e.g. OR per 10 µg/m³ for 10-year average: 1.17, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.32), and a positive relationship with 1-year average BC. Results were driven by participants 70 years and older (OR per 10 µg/m³ for 10-year average: 1.35, 95% CI: 1.15–1.58). Null findings for younger participants. Higher 1-year average PM_2.5 exposures were associated with higher risks for acute myeloid and chronic lymphoblastic leukaemia.

Conclusion

Among older adults, higher risk for leukaemia was associated with higher residential PM_2.5 concentrations averaged over 1, 5 and 10 years prior to diagnosis.

Associations between growing up in natural environments and subsequent psychiatric disorders in Denmark

Natural environments have been associated with mental health benefits worldwide. However, how different elements and types of natural environments associate with mental health is still largely unknown. In this study, we perform a detailed analysis on a large, nation-wide data set of mental health records (908 553 individuals) for Denmark combined with remotely-sensed land cover and vegetation density data. We explore associations between growing up surrounded by different environments and rates of a spectrum of 18 psychiatric disorders. Childhood land cover exposure for urban, agricultural, near-natural green space, and blue space was determined around the residence of each individual. Vegetation density and air pollution were evaluated as potential pathways. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate rates as hazard ratios and then adjusted for potential confounding from other known risk factors. For 12 of 18 disorders, rates were lower for children growing up in environments with more natural elements (near-natural green space, blue space, and agriculture) compared to children growing up in urban environments. High vegetation density was associated with lower rates for most disorders within all the examined environments, whereas mitigation of air pollution by natural environments seemed a less important potential pathway. Rates were not notably changed by adjustment for urbanization, parental and municipal socioeconomic status, family history of mental illness, and parents' age. In conclusion, we found that growing up surrounded by a range of natural environments such as near-natural green space, blue space, and agriculture may lower rates of psychiatric disorders. Our results show the importance of ensuring access to natural environments from as nature-based solutions for improved public health and sustainable, livable cities.

Long-term exposure to PM2.5 and its constituents and risk of Non-Hodgkin lymphoma in Denmark: A population-based case-control study

BACKGROUND

Particulate matter (PM) air pollution is a complex mixture and the various PM constituents likely affect health differently. The literature on the relationships among specific PM constituents and the risk of cancer is sparse. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the association of PM_2.5 and its constituents with the incidence of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) and the two main NHL subtypes.

METHODS

We undertook a nationwide register-based case-control study including 20,847 cases registered in the Danish Cancer Registry with NHL between 1989 and 2014. Among the entire Danish population, we selected 41,749 age and sex-matched controls randomly from the Civil Registration System. We assessed modelled outdoor PM concentrations at addresses of cases and controls with a state-of-the-art multi scale air pollution modelling system and used conditional logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) adjusted for individual and neighborhood level socio-demographic variables.

RESULTS

The 10-year time-weighted average concentrations of PM_2.5, primary carbonaceous particles (BC/OC), secondary inorganic aerosols (SIA), secondary organic aerosols (SOA) and sea salt were 17.4, 2.3, 7.8, 0.3, and 4.1 μg/m³, respectively among controls. The results showed higher risk for NHL in association with exposure to BC/OC (OR = 1.03; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.07, per interquartile range (IQR)) and SOA (OR = 1.54; 95% CI: 1.13, 2.09, per IQR). The results indicated a higher risk for follicular lymphoma in association with several PM components. Including PM_2.5 (OR = 1.16; 95% CI: 0.98-1.38), BC/OC (OR = 1.05; 95% CI: 0.97-1.14), SIA (OR = 1.44; 95% CI: 0.80-1.08), SOA (OR = 4.52; 95% CI: 0.86-23.83) per IQR.

CONCLUSION

This is the first study on PM constituents and the risk of NHL. The results indicated an association with primary carbonaceous and secondary organic PM. The results need replication in other settings before any firm conclusion can be reached.

Long-term exposure to air pollution and stroke incidence: A Danish Nurse cohort study

Ambient air pollution has been linked to stroke, but few studies have examined in detail stroke subtypes and confounding by road traffic noise, which was recently associated with stroke. Here we examined the association between long-term exposure to air pollution and incidence of stroke (overall, ischemic, hemorrhagic), adjusting for road traffic noise. In a nationwide Danish Nurse Cohort consisting of 23,423 nurses, recruited in 1993 or 1999, we identified 1,078 incident cases of stroke (944 ischemic and 134 hemorrhagic) up to December 31, 2014, defined as first-ever hospital contact. The full residential address histories since 1970 were obtained for each participant and the annual means of air pollutants (particulate matter with diameter < 2.5 µm and < 10 µm (PM_2.5 and PM₁₀), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), nitrogen oxides (NOx)) and road traffic noise were determined using validated models. Time-varying Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) (95% confidence intervals (CI)) for the associations of one-, three, and 23-year running mean of air pollutants with stroke adjusting for potential confounders and noise. In fully adjusted models, the HRs (95% CI) per interquartile range increase in one-year running mean of PM_2.5 and overall, ischemic, and hemorrhagic stroke were 1.12 (1.01-1.25), 1.13 (1.01-1.26), and 1.07 (0.80-1.44), respectively, and remained unchanged after adjustment for noise. Long-term exposure to ambient PM_2.5 was associated with the risk of stroke independent of road traffic noise.

Air pollution and family related determinants of asthma onset and persistent wheezing in children: nationwide case-control study

OBJECTIVE

To identify risk factors (air pollution and family related) for the onset of asthma and persistent wheezing in children.

DESIGN

Nationwide case-control study.

SETTING

Denmark.

PARTICIPANTS

All Danish children born from 1997 to 2014 and followed for asthma onset and persistent wheezing from age 1 year to 15 years.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Onset of asthma and persistent wheezing.

RESULTS

A higher incidence of asthma was found in children of parents with asthma (adjusted hazard ratio 2.29 (95% confidence interval 2.22 to 2.35) and mothers who smoked during pregnancy (1.20, 1.18 to 1.22), whereas a lower incidence was found in children of parents with high educational attainment (0.72, 0.69 to 0.75) and high incomes (0.85, 0.81 to 0.89). Exposure to particulate matter ≤2.5 µm (PM_2.5) and ≤10 µm (PM₁₀) and nitrate was associated with an increased risk of asthma and persistent wheezing, with hazard ratios per 5 µg/m³ increase in pollutant concentrations 1.05 (1.03 to 1.07) for PM_2.5, 1.04 (1.02 to 1.06) for PM₁₀, and 1.04 (1.03 to 1.04) for nitrogen dioxide. Only the positive association of PM_2.5 with asthma and persistent wheezing remained robust across the different models and in sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of this study suggest that children exposed to higher levels of PM_2.5 are more likely to develop asthma and persistent wheezing than children who are not exposed. Other risk factors associated with these outcomes were parental asthma, parental education, and maternal smoking during pregnancy.

Intracranial tumors of the central nervous system and air pollution - a nationwide case-control study from Denmark

BACKGROUND

Inconclusive evidence has suggested a possible link between air pollution and central nervous system (CNS) tumors. We investigated a range of air pollutants in relation to types of CNS tumors.

METHODS

We identified all (n = 21,057) intracranial tumors in brain, meninges and cranial nerves diagnosed in Denmark between 1989 and 2014 and matched controls on age, sex and year of birth. We established personal 10-year mean residential outdoor exposure to particulate matter < 2.5 μm (PM_2.5), nitrous oxides (NO_X), primary emitted black carbon (BC) and ozone. We used conditional logistic regression to calculate odds ratios (OR) linearly (per interquartile range (IQR)) and categorically. We accounted for personal income, employment, marital status, use of medication as well as socio-demographic conditions at area level.

RESULTS

Malignant tumors of the intracranial CNS was associated with BC (OR: 1.034, 95%CI: 1.005-1.065 per IQR. For NO_x the OR per IQR was 1.026 (95%CI: 0.998-1.056). For malignant non-glioma tumors of the brain we found associations with PM_2.5 (OR: 1.267, 95%CI: 1.053-1.524 per IQR), BC (OR: 1.049, 95%CI: 0.996-1.106) and NO_x (OR: 1.051, 95% CI: 0.996-1.110).

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that air pollution is associated with malignant intracranial CNS tumors and malignant non-glioma of the brain. However, additional studies are needed.

Long-term exposure to air pollution and risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma in Denmark: A population-based case-control study

There is limited evidence regarding a possible association between exposure to ambient air pollutants and the risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL). Previous epidemiological studies have relied on crude estimations for air pollution exposure and/or small numbers of NHL cases. The objective of our study was to analyze this association based on air pollution modeled at the address level and NHL cases identified from the nationwide Danish Cancer Registry. We identified 20,874 incident NHL cases diagnosed between 1989 and 2014 and randomly selected 41,749 controls matched on age and gender among the entire Danish population. We used conditional logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and adjusted for individual and neighborhood level sociodemographic variables. There was no association between exposure to PM_2.5 , BC, O₃ , SO₂ or NO₂ and overall risk of NHL but several air pollutants were associated with higher risk of follicular lymphoma, but statistically insignificant, for example, PM_2.5 (OR = 1.15 per 5 μg/m³ ; 95% CI: 0.98-1.34) and lower risk for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (OR = 0.92 per 5 μg/m³ ; 95% CI: 0.82-1.03). In this population-based study, we did not observe any convincing evidence of a higher overall risk for NHL with higher exposure to ambient air pollutants.

Exposure to air pollution in early childhood and the association with Attention-Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder

BACKGROUND

Exposure to air pollution in early life has been linked to cognitive deficits and adverse neurodevelopmental effects. However, studies examining associations between air pollutants and Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) have had conflicting findings.

METHODS

Individuals born in Denmark 1992-2007 (n = 809,654) were followed for the development of ADHD from 1997 to 2013. Data on daily concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) from air-modeling data at a 1 km × 1 km resolution at residences within the first five years of life, was linked with population-based data from the Danish national registers, including data on clinical diagnoses of ADHD. We estimated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for ADHD, according to increases in exposures, adjusting for age, year, sex, and parental education and income.

RESULTS

Exposure to NO₂ and PM_2.5 during early life was associated with a significantly increased risk of ADHD: IRR of 1.38 (Cl: 1.35 to 1.42) per 10 μg/m³ increase in NO₂ and an IRR of 1.51 (Cl: 1.41 to 1.62) per 5 μg/m³ increase in PM_2.5. In two-pollutant models, the association between NO₂ and ADHD did not change (IRR 1.35; 95% CI: 1.31 to 1.39), while the association with PM_2.5 was substantially attenuated (IRR 1.07; 95% CI: 0.98 to 1.16), although in stratified models an elevated association with PM_2.5 was found in the lowest quintile of NO₂ exposure.

CONCLUSIONS

In this large nationwide prospective cohort study, residential air pollution exposure, specifically NO₂, during early childhood was associated with the development of ADHD, even when adjusted for parental level of income and education.

Exposure to air pollution during childhood and risk of developing schizophrenia: a national cohort study

BACKGROUND

Ambient air pollution affects neurological function, but its association with schizophrenia risk is unclear. We investigated exposure to nitrogen oxides (NO_X) as a whole and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) specifically, as well as PM₁₀, and PM_2·5, during childhood and subsequent schizophrenia risk.

METHODS

People born in Denmark from 1980 to 1984 (N=230 844), who were residing in the country on their tenth birthday, and who had two Danish-born parents were followed-up from their tenth birthday until schizophrenia diagnosis or Dec 31, 2016. Mean daily exposure to each pollutant (NO₂, NO_X, PM₁₀, and PM_2·5) at all of an individual's residential addresses from birth to their tenth birthday was modelled. Incidence rate ratios, cumulative incidence, and population attributable risks were calculated using survival analysis techniques.

FINDINGS

We analysed data between Aug 1, 2018, and Nov 15, 2019. Of 230 844 individuals included, 2189 cohort members were diagnosed with schizophrenia during follow-up. Higher concentrations of residential NO₂ and NO_X exposure during childhood were associated with subsequent elevated schizophrenia risk. People exposed to daily mean concentrations of more than 26·5 μg/m³ NO₂ had a 1·62 (95% CI 1·41-1·87) times increased risk compared with people exposed to a mean daily concentration of less than 14·5 μg/m³. The absolute risks of developing schizophrenia by the age of 37 years when exposed to daily mean concentrations of more than 26·5 μg/m³ NO₂ between birth and 10 years were 1·45% (95% CI 1·30-1·62%) for men and 1·03% (0·90-1·17) for women, whereas when exposed to a mean daily concentration of less than 14·5 μg/m³, the risk was 0·80% (95% CI 0·69-0·92%) for men and 0·67% (0·57-0·79) for women. Associations between exposure to PM_2·5 or PM₁₀ and schizophrenia risk were less consistent.

INTERPRETATION

If the association between air pollution and schizophrenia is causal, reducing ambient air pollution including NO₂ and NO_X could have a potentially considerable effect on lowering schizophrenia incidence at the population level. Further investigations are necessary to establish a causal relationship.

FUNDING

Lundbeck Foundation, Stanley Medical Research Institute, European Research Council, NordForsk, Novo Nordisk Foundation, National Health and Medical Research Council, Danish National Research Foundation.

Long-term residential exposure to PM2.5 constituents and mortality in a Danish cohort

Studies on health effects of long-term exposure to specific PM_2.5 constituents are few. Previous studies have reported an association between black carbon (BC) exposure and cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and a few studies have found an association between sulfate exposure and mortality. These studies, however, relied mainly on exposure data from centrally located air-monitoring stations, which is a crude approximation of personal exposure. We focused on specific chemical constituents of PM_2.5, i.e. elemental and primary organic carbonaceous particles (BC/OC), sea salt, secondary inorganic aerosols (SIA, i.e. NO₃^-, NH₄⁺, and SO₄^2-), and secondary organic aerosols (SOA), in relation to all-cause, CVD and respiratory disease mortality. We followed a Danish cohort of 49,564 individuals from enrollment in 1993-1997 through 2015. We combined residential address history from 1979 onwards with mean annual air pollution concentrations obtained by the AirGIS air pollution modelling system, lifestyle information from baseline questionnaires and socio-demography obtained by register linkage. During 895,897 person-years of follow-up, 10,193 deaths from all causes occurred - of which 2319 were CVD-related and 870 were related to respiratory disease. The 15-year time-weighted average concentrations of PM_2.5, BC/OC, sea salt, SIA and SOA were 13.8, 2.8, 3.4, 4.9, and 0.3 µg/m³, respectively. For all-cause mortality, a higher risk was observed with higher exposure to PM_2.5, BC/OC and SOA with adjusted hazard ratios of 1.03 (95% confidence intervals: 1.01, 1.05), 1.06 (1.03, 1.09), and 1.08 (1.03, 1.13) per interquartile range, respectively. The associations for BC/OC and SOA remained after adjustment for PM_2.5 in two-pollutant models. For CVD mortality, we observed elevated risks with higher exposure to PM_2.5, BC/OC and SIA. The results showed no clear relationship between sea salt and mortality. In this study, we observed a relationship between long-term exposure to PM_2.5, BC/OC, and SOA and all-cause mortality and between PM_2.5, BC/OC, and SIA and CVD mortality.

Association of Childhood Exposure to Nitrogen Dioxide and Polygenic Risk Score for Schizophrenia With the Risk of Developing Schizophrenia

IMPORTANCE

Schizophrenia is a highly heritable psychiatric disorder, and recent studies have suggested that exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2) during childhood is associated with an elevated risk of subsequently developing schizophrenia. However, it is not known whether the increased risk associated with NO2 exposure is owing to a greater genetic liability among those exposed to highest NO2 levels.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the associations between childhood NO2 exposure and genetic liability for schizophrenia (as measured by a polygenic risk score), and risk of developing schizophrenia.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Population-based cohort study including individuals with schizophrenia (International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision code F20) and a randomly selected subcohort. Using national registry data, all individuals born in Denmark between May 1, 1981, and December 31, 2002, were followed up from their 10th birthday until the first occurrence of schizophrenia, emigration, death, or December 31, 2012, whichever came first. Statistical analyses were conducted between October 24, 2018, and June 17, 2019.

EXPOSURES

Individual exposure to NO2 during childhood estimated as mean daily exposure to NO2 at residential addresses from birth to the 10th birthday. Polygenic risk scores were calculated as the weighted sum of risk alleles at selected single-nucleotide polymorphisms based on genetic material obtained from dried blood spot samples from the Danish Newborn Screening Biobank and on the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium genome-wide association study summary statistics file.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The main outcome was schizophrenia. Weighted Cox proportional hazards regression models were fitted to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (AHRs) for schizophrenia with 95% CIs according to the exposures.

RESULTS

Of a total of 23 355 individuals, 11 976 (51.3%) were male and all had Danish-born parents. During the period of the study, 3531 were diagnosed with schizophrenia. Higher polygenic risk scores were correlated with higher childhood NO2 exposure (ρ = 0.0782; 95% CI, 0.065-0.091; P < .001). A 10-μg/m3 increase in childhood daily NO2 exposure (AHR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.15-1.32) and a 1-SD increase in polygenic risk score (AHR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.23-1.35) were independently associated with increased schizophrenia risk.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

These findings suggest that the apparent association between NO2 exposure and schizophrenia is only slightly confounded by a higher polygenic risk score for schizophrenia among individuals living in areas with greater NO2. The findings demonstrate the utility of including polygenic risk scores in epidemiologic studies.

Association of Childhood Exposure to Nitrogen Dioxide and Polygenic Risk Score for Schizophrenia With the Risk of Developing Schizophrenia

IMPORTANCE

Schizophrenia is a highly heritable psychiatric disorder, and recent studies have suggested that exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2) during childhood is associated with an elevated risk of subsequently developing schizophrenia. However, it is not known whether the increased risk associated with NO2 exposure is owing to a greater genetic liability among those exposed to highest NO2 levels.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the associations between childhood NO2 exposure and genetic liability for schizophrenia (as measured by a polygenic risk score), and risk of developing schizophrenia.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Population-based cohort study including individuals with schizophrenia (International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision code F20) and a randomly selected subcohort. Using national registry data, all individuals born in Denmark between May 1, 1981, and December 31, 2002, were followed up from their 10th birthday until the first occurrence of schizophrenia, emigration, death, or December 31, 2012, whichever came first. Statistical analyses were conducted between October 24, 2018, and June 17, 2019.

EXPOSURES

Individual exposure to NO2 during childhood estimated as mean daily exposure to NO2 at residential addresses from birth to the 10th birthday. Polygenic risk scores were calculated as the weighted sum of risk alleles at selected single-nucleotide polymorphisms based on genetic material obtained from dried blood spot samples from the Danish Newborn Screening Biobank and on the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium genome-wide association study summary statistics file.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The main outcome was schizophrenia. Weighted Cox proportional hazards regression models were fitted to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (AHRs) for schizophrenia with 95% CIs according to the exposures.

RESULTS

Of a total of 23 355 individuals, 11 976 (51.3%) were male and all had Danish-born parents. During the period of the study, 3531 were diagnosed with schizophrenia. Higher polygenic risk scores were correlated with higher childhood NO2 exposure (ρ = 0.0782; 95% CI, 0.065-0.091; P < .001). A 10-μg/m3 increase in childhood daily NO2 exposure (AHR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.15-1.32) and a 1-SD increase in polygenic risk score (AHR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.23-1.35) were independently associated with increased schizophrenia risk.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

These findings suggest that the apparent association between NO2 exposure and schizophrenia is only slightly confounded by a higher polygenic risk score for schizophrenia among individuals living in areas with greater NO2. The findings demonstrate the utility of including polygenic risk scores in epidemiologic studies.

Long-term residential exposure to PM2.5, PM10, black carbon, NO2, and ozone and mortality in a Danish cohort

Air pollutants such as NO₂ and PM_2.5 have consistently been linked to mortality, but only few previous studies have addressed associations with long-term exposure to black carbon (BC) and ozone (O₃). We investigated the association between PM_2.5, PM₁₀, BC, NO₂, and O₃ and mortality in a Danish cohort of 49,564 individuals who were followed up from enrollment in 1993-1997 through 2015. Residential address history from 1979 onwards was combined with air pollution exposure obtained by the state-of-the-art, validated, THOR/AirGIS air pollution modelling system, and information on residential traffic noise exposure, lifestyle and socio-demography. We observed higher risks of all-cause as well as cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality with higher long-term exposure to PM_2.5, PM₁₀, BC, and NO₂. For PM_2.5 and CVD mortality, a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.29 (95% CI: 1.13-1.47) per 5 μg/m³ was observed, and correspondingly HRs of 1.16 (95% CI: 1.05-1.27) and 1.11 (95% CI: 1.04-1.17) were observed for BC (per 1 μg/m³) and NO₂ (per 10 μg/m³), respectively. Adjustment for noise gave slightly lower estimates for the air pollutants and CVD mortality. Inverse relationships were observed for O₃. None of the investigated air pollutants were related to risk of respiratory mortality. Stratified analyses suggested that the elevated risks of CVD and all-cause mortality in relation to long-term PM, NO₂ and BC exposure were restricted to males. This study supports a role of PM, BC, and NO₂ in all-cause and CVD mortality independent of road traffic noise exposure.

Modeled deposition of nitrogen and sulfur in Europe estimated by 14 air quality model systems: evaluation, effects of changes in emissions and implications for habitat protection

The evaluation and intercomparison of air quality models is key to reducing model errors and uncertainty. The projects AQMEII3 and EURODELTA-Trends, in the framework of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollutants and the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, respectively (both task forces under the UNECE Convention on the Long Range Transport of Air Pollution, LTRAP), have brought together various regional air quality models to analyze their performance in terms of air concentrations and wet deposition, as well as to address other specific objectives. This paper jointly examines the results from both project communities by intercomparing and evaluating the deposition estimates of reduced and oxidized nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) in Europe simulated by 14 air quality model systems for the year 2010. An accurate estimate of deposition is key to an accurate simulation of atmospheric concentrations. In addition, deposition fluxes are increasingly being used to estimate ecological impacts. It is therefore important to know by how much model results differ and how well they agree with observed values, at least when comparison with observations is possible, such as in the case of wet deposition. This study reveals a large variability between the wet deposition estimates of the models, with some performing acceptably (according to previously defined criteria) and others underestimating wet deposition rates. For dry deposition, there are also considerable differences between the model estimates. An ensemble of the models with the best performance for N wet deposition was made and used to explore the implications of N deposition in the conservation of protected European habitats. Exceedances of empirical critical loads were calculated for the most common habitats at a resolution of 100 × 100 m² within the Natura 2000 network, and the habitats with the largest areas showing exceedances are determined. Moreover, simulations with reduced emissions in selected source areas indicated a fairly linear relationship between reductions in emissions and changes in the deposition rates of N and S. An approximate 20 % reduction in N and S deposition in Europe is found when emissions at a global scale are reduced by the same amount. European emissions are by far the main contributor to deposition in Europe, whereas the reduction in deposition due to a decrease in emissions in North America is very small and confined to the western part of the domain. Reductions in European emissions led to substantial decreases in the protected habitat areas with critical load exceedances (halving the exceeded area for certain habitats), whereas no change was found, on average, when reducing North American emissions in terms of average values per habitat.