The burden of neurological conditions in north Africa and the Middle East, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

The burden of neurological conditions in north Africa and the Middle East is increasing. We aimed to assess the changes in the burden of neurological conditions in this super-region to aid with future decision making.

METHODS

In this analysis of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 data, we examined temporal trends of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; deaths and disabilities combined), deaths, incident cases, and prevalent cases of 14 major neurological conditions and eight subtypes in 21 countries in the north Africa and the Middle East super-region. Additionally, we assessed neurological DALYs due to 22 potentially modifiable risk factors, within four levels of classification, during the period 1990-2019. We used a Bayesian modelling estimation approach, and generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for final estimates on the basis of the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of 1000 draws from the posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were 441·1 thousand (95% UI 347·2-598·4) deaths and 17·6 million (12·5-24·7) neurological DALYs in north Africa and the Middle East. The leading causes of neurological DALYs were stroke, migraine, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (hereafter dementias). In north Africa and the Middle East in 2019, 85·8% (82·6-89·1) of stroke and 39·9% (26·4-54·7) of dementia age-standardised DALYs were attributable to modifiable risk factors. North Africa and the Middle East had the highest age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 population due to dementia (387·0 [172·0-848·5]), Parkinson's disease (84·4 [74·7-103·2]), and migraine (601·4 [107·0-1371·8]) among the global super-regions. Between 1990 and 2019, there was a decrease in the age-standardised DALY rates related to meningitis (-75·8% [-81·1 to -69·5]), tetanus (-88·2% [-93·9 to -76·1]), stroke (-32·0% [-39·1 to -23·3]), intracerebral haemorrhage (-51·7% [-58·2 to -43·8]), idiopathic epilepsy (-26·2% [-43·6 to -1·1]), and subarachnoid haemorrhage (-62·8% [-71·6 to -41·0]), but for all other neurological conditions there was no change. During 1990-2019, the number of DALYs due to dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, ischaemic stroke, and headache disorder (ie, migraine and tension-type headache) more than doubled in the super-region, and the burden of years lived with disability (YLDs), incidence, and prevalence of multiple sclerosis, motor neuron disease, Parkinson's disease, and ischaemic stroke increased both in age-standardised rate and count. During this period, the absolute burden of YLDs due to head and spinal injuries almost doubled.

INTERPRETATION

The increasing burden of neurological conditions in north Africa and the Middle East accompanies the increasing ageing population. Stroke and dementia are the primary causes of neurological disability and death, primarily attributable to common modifiable risk factors. Synergistic, systematic, lifetime, and multi-sectoral interventions aimed at preventing or mitigating the burden are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

TRANSLATIONS

For the Persian, Arabic and Turkish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022-2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050.

METHODS

Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.

FINDINGS

In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8-63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0-45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2-34·1] to 15·5% [13·7-17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4-40·3) to 41·1% (33·9-48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6-25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5-43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5-17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7-11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7-27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5-6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2-26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [-0·6 to 3·6]).

INTERPRETATION

Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.

METHODS

To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10-54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values-a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy-by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007-21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.

FINDINGS

During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63-5·06) to 2·23 (2·09-2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137-147), declining to 129 million (121-138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1-canonically considered replacement-level fertility-in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7-29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59-2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25-1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6-43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1-59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions-decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7-25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3-19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4-10·1) in 2100-but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40-1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35-1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction.

INTERPRETATION

Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk-outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk-outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk-outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk-outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws.

FINDINGS

Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7-9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4-9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7-6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8-6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8-6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9-27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5-28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3-56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9-21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3-12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6-1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1-1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4-78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2-72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Barriers and Enablers for Physical Activity Engagement Among Individuals From India With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Mixed-Method Study

BACKGROUND

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a complex, chronic condition that can cause multiple complications due to poor glycemic control. Self-management plays a crucial role in the management of T2DM. Lifestyle modifications, including physical activity (PA), are fundamental for self-management. This study explored the knowledge, perception, practice, enablers, and barriers of PA among individuals with T2DM.

METHODS

A mixed-method study was conducted among individuals with T2DM in Udupi taluk, India. A cross-sectional survey (n = 467) followed by an in-depth interview (n = 35) was performed. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and thematic analysis, respectively.

RESULTS

About half (48.8%) of the participants engaged in PA of which 28.3% had an adequate score in the practice of PA. Walking was the most preferred mode. Self-realization, Comprehension, perception, and source of information, PA training, Current PA practices, enablers and barriers for PA were 6 themes derived under knowledge, perception, and practice of PA.

CONCLUSION

Despite knowing the importance of PA, compliance with PA was poor. The personal/internal, societal, and external factors constituted the trinity of barriers and enablers in compliance with PA. Behavioral changes, societal changes, policy initiatives, and PA training in health care settings may enhance PA practice among individuals with T2DM.

Influence of short bouts of stair climbing on young adults during prolonged sitting on posture, discomfort, and musculoskeletal performance outcomes: a counterbalanced pilot randomised crossover trial

Prolonged sitting is postulated to influence musculoskeletal performance (cervical flexor endurance, balance, and agility), discomfort and alter cervical spine angles during work-based computer use. Stair climbing breaks may be a great addition at typical and home offices however remain unexplored for its impact on musculoskeletal performance. In our counterbalanced pilot crossover trial, 24 adults were randomised to three interventions: (1) prolonged sitting, (2) interrupted by 2 min of self-paced, and (3) externally paced stair climbing for 2 h. Cervical spine angles were measured every 30 min while balance, agility, endurance, and discomfort were assessed before and after 120 min. Stair climbing interruptions have favourable effects on agility (F = 8.12, p = 0.009, ηp2 = 0.26) and musculoskeletal discomfort, but failed to improve other musculoskeletal outcomes associated with prolonged sitting. Brief stair climbing interruptions are effective in improving discomfort and agility while pragmatic trials are warranted for translated effects.

A close critical look of India's National Mental Health Survey 2016

The National Mental Health Survey 2016 (NMHS 2016) was a large epidemiological study, one of its kind, conducted by the National Institute of Mental Health and Neuro Sciences (NIMHANS), Bengaluru to overcome the shortcomings of the previous surveys. The detailed report of the study is available in two parts- 'mental health systems' and 'prevalence, pattern and outcomes'. Though done comprehensively, there are some inevitable limitations. The private sector, a substantial health care provider in the country was not a participant in the survey. Though MINI version 6.0 is a standard and structured instrument, it does not cover many commonly encountered mental illnesses like somatoform disorders. Further, the methodology of the survey makes it difficult for an accurate calculation of the prevalence of individual major psychiatric disorders. The survey has been appraised using a standard checklist for prevalence studies. The detailed qualitative data has not been shared in the report. The contribution of the traditional indigenous systems of healthcare and accessibility of services in rural areas have not been elaborated. Thus, the need for a comprehensive and culturally sensitive assessment tool, involvement of the private sector, and enhancing funding provision to improve the infrastructure are emphasized as future directions for the subsequent phases of the survey.

The Global, Regional, and National Burden of Adult Lip, Oral, and Pharyngeal Cancer in 204 Countries and Territories: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Importance

Lip, oral, and pharyngeal cancers are important contributors to cancer burden worldwide, and a comprehensive evaluation of their burden globally, regionally, and nationally is crucial for effective policy planning.

Objective

To analyze the total and risk-attributable burden of lip and oral cavity cancer (LOC) and other pharyngeal cancer (OPC) for 204 countries and territories and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) using 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study estimates.

Evidence Review

The incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to LOC and OPC from 1990 to 2019 were estimated using GBD 2019 methods. The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate the proportion of deaths and DALYs for LOC and OPC attributable to smoking, tobacco, and alcohol consumption in 2019.

Findings

In 2019, 370 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 338 000-401 000) cases and 199 000 (95% UI, 181 000-217 000) deaths for LOC and 167 000 (95% UI, 153 000-180 000) cases and 114 000 (95% UI, 103 000-126 000) deaths for OPC were estimated to occur globally, contributing 5.5 million (95% UI, 5.0-6.0 million) and 3.2 million (95% UI, 2.9-3.6 million) DALYs, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, low-middle and low SDI regions consistently showed the highest age-standardized mortality rates due to LOC and OPC, while the high SDI strata exhibited age-standardized incidence rates decreasing for LOC and increasing for OPC. Globally in 2019, smoking had the greatest contribution to risk-attributable OPC deaths for both sexes (55.8% [95% UI, 49.2%-62.0%] of all OPC deaths in male individuals and 17.4% [95% UI, 13.8%-21.2%] of all OPC deaths in female individuals). Smoking and alcohol both contributed to substantial LOC deaths globally among male individuals (42.3% [95% UI, 35.2%-48.6%] and 40.2% [95% UI, 33.3%-46.8%] of all risk-attributable cancer deaths, respectively), while chewing tobacco contributed to the greatest attributable LOC deaths among female individuals (27.6% [95% UI, 21.5%-33.8%]), driven by high risk-attributable burden in South and Southeast Asia.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this systematic analysis, disparities in LOC and OPC burden existed across the SDI spectrum, and a considerable percentage of burden was attributable to tobacco and alcohol use. These estimates can contribute to an understanding of the distribution and disparities in LOC and OPC burden globally and support cancer control planning efforts.

Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050.

METHODS

Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively.

FINDINGS

In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8-6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7-9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5-13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1-79·5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1-96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9-95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5-71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5-30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22-1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1-17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8-11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%.

INTERPRETATION

Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Effects of physical activity breaks during prolonged sitting on vascular and executive function—A randomised cross-over trial

Objectives

High sedentary behaviour is associated with adverse effects on central vascular function and cognitive function. Although interventions to mitigate the adverse effects of workplace sitting are intriguing, evidence of the efficacy of such interventions remains lacking. This randomised cross-over trial was aimed at exploring the effectiveness of prolonged sitting, with or without physical activity breaks, on central, peripheral vascular and cognitive function in adults.

Methods

Twenty one healthy adults completed 4 h of simulated work conditions in three experimental visits: (1) uninterrupted sitting (SIT); (2) sitting interrupted by 3 min of walking every hour (LIT); and (3) sitting interrupted by 3 min of stair climbing every hour (MIT). Carotid (CA) and superficial femoral artery (SFA) diameter, velocity, shear rate and blood flow were measured with Duplex ultrasound at 50 MHz at three time points (hours 0, 2 and 4), and executive function was assessed with the computer based Eriksen Flanker task every hour.

Results

The decreases in reaction time (-30.59%) and accuracy (-10.56%) during SIT conditions were statistically significant, and less of a decrease was observed under LIT and MIT conditions. No significant differences in CA and SFA function were observed with LIT and MIT interventions.

Conclusion

Physical activity breaks of varying intensity during prolonged sitting improve reaction time. However, the vascular benefits of physical activity breaks should be confirmed in the future through long term studies in natural environment.

Dose-response effects of periodic physical activity breaks on the chronic inflammatory risk associated with sedentary behavior in high- and upper-middle income countries: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Though moderate-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) is speculated to mitigate the inflammatory risk associated with sedentary behavior, only a fraction of the global population meets the recommended weekly dose of MVPA. More individuals indulge in bouted and sporadic light-intensity physical activity (LIPA) that occurs throughout the typical day. However, the anti-inflammatory effects of LIPA or MVPA breaks during prolonged sitting remains unclear.

METHODS

A systematic search was done on six peer-reviewed databases through January 27th, 2023. Two authors independently screened the citations for eligibility, and risk of bias and performed a meta-analysis.

RESULTS

The included studies originated from high and upper - middle income countries. Observational studies of SB interruptions with LIPA showed favourable effects on inflammatory mediators such as higher levels of adiponectin (odds ratio, OR = +0.14; p = 0.02). However, these findings are not supported by the experimental studies. Experimental studies reported non-significant increase in cytokines including IL-1β (standardised mean difference, SMD = 0.11 pg/ml; p = 0.29) and IL-6 (SMD = 0.19 pg/ml; p = 0.46) after interrupting sitting with LIPA breaks. But these LIPA breaks were found to reduce C-reactive protein (SMD = - 0.50 mg/dl; p = 0.85) and IL-8 levels (SMD = -0.08 pg/ml; p = 0.34) but did not reach statistical significance.

CONCLUSION

Interrupting prolonged sitting time with LIPA breaks shows promise for preventing the inflammatory effects associated with prolonged bouts of daily sitting, though the evidence remains in infancy and limited to high- and upper-middle income countries.

Micronutrients and cognitive functions among urban school-going children and adolescents: A cross-sectional multicentric study from India

BACKGROUND

Micronutrient deficiency (MD) is associated with deficits in cognitive functioning of children. However, no comprehensive multicentric study has been conducted in India to explore the role of multiple MD in cognition of children and adolescents. The present study aimed to explore association of MD with level of general intelligence and specific cognitive functions, in urban school-going children and adolescents across ten cities of India.

METHOD

Cross-sectional multicentric study, enrolled participants aged 6-16 years. Blood samples were collected for biochemical analysis of calcium, iron, zinc, selenium, folate, vitamin A, D and B12. Colored Progressive Matrices / Standard Progressive Matrices (CPM/SPM), Coding, Digit Span and Arithmetic tests were used for the assessment of cognitive functions of participants. Height and weight measures were collected along with socio-economic status.

RESULTS

From April-2019 to February-2020, 2428 participants were recruited from 60 schools. No MD was found in 7.0% (134/1918), any one MD in 23.8% (457/1918) and ≥ 2 MD in 69.2% (1327/1918) participants. In presence of ≥ 2 MD, adjusted odds ratio (OR) for borderline or dull normal in CPM/SPM was 1.63, (95% CI: 1.05-2.52), coding was 1.66 (95% CI: 1.02-2.71), digit span was 1.55 (95% CI: 1.06-2.25) and arithmetic was 1.72 (95% CI: 1.17-2.53), controlling for gender, socioeconomic status and anthropometric indicators.

CONCLUSION

Since ≥ 2 MD were found in more than 2/3rd of participants and was associated with impairment in cognitive function, attempts must be made to ameliorate them on priority in school going children in India.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

CTRI/2019/02/017783.

Assessing performance of the Healthcare Access and Quality Index, overall and by select age groups, for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Health-care needs change throughout the life course. It is thus crucial to assess whether health systems provide access to quality health care for all ages. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019), we measured the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index overall and for select age groups in 204 locations from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We distinguished the overall HAQ Index (ages 0-74 years) from scores for select age groups: the young (ages 0-14 years), working (ages 15-64 years), and post-working (ages 65-74 years) groups. For GBD 2019, HAQ Index construction methods were updated to use the arithmetic mean of scaled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) and risk-standardised death rates (RSDRs) for 32 causes of death that should not occur in the presence of timely, quality health care. Across locations and years, MIRs and RSDRs were scaled from 0 (worst) to 100 (best) separately, putting the HAQ Index on a different relative scale for each age group. We estimated absolute convergence for each group on the basis of whether the HAQ Index grew faster in absolute terms between 1990 and 2019 in countries with lower 1990 HAQ Index scores than countries with higher 1990 HAQ Index scores and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. SDI is a summary metric of overall development.

FINDINGS

Between 1990 and 2019, the HAQ Index increased overall (by 19·6 points, 95% uncertainty interval 17·9-21·3), as well as among the young (22·5, 19·9-24·7), working (17·2, 15·2-19·1), and post-working (15·1, 13·2-17·0) age groups. Large differences in HAQ Index scores were present across SDI levels in 2019, with the overall index ranging from 30·7 (28·6-33·0) on average in low-SDI countries to 83·4 (82·4-84·3) on average in high-SDI countries. Similarly large ranges between low-SDI and high-SDI countries, respectively, were estimated in the HAQ Index for the young (40·4-89·0), working (33·8-82·8), and post-working (30·4-79·1) groups. Absolute convergence in HAQ Index was estimated in the young group only. In contrast, divergence was estimated among the working and post-working groups, driven by slow progress in low-SDI countries.

INTERPRETATION

Although major gaps remain across levels of social and economic development, convergence in the young group is an encouraging sign of reduced disparities in health-care access and quality. However, divergence in the working and post-working groups indicates that health-care access and quality is lagging at lower levels of social and economic development. To meet the needs of ageing populations, health systems need to improve health-care access and quality for working-age adults and older populations while continuing to realise gains among the young.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Physical activity interventions for glycaemic control in African adults - A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Growing evidence indicates that increasing physical activity may aid in regulating altered glycaemic control, thereby mitigating the risk of diabetes. However, the evidence summarising the efficacy of physical activity on glycaemic control among African adults remains unconsolidated. Our objective was to provide an amalgamated summary of the empirical evidence that explored the effectiveness of physical activity interventions on glycaemic control among African adults.

METHODS

A systematic search of six journal databases for the studies exploring the efficacy of physical activity on glycaemic control among African adults until March 21, 2022, was administered. Two independent reviewers screened the citations based on a priori set eligibility criteria. Data were analysed using inverse variance method and a summary of findings was synthesised using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations approach.

RESULTS

Of the 14,624 citations retrieved, 26 articles with 1474 participants were included for final analysis. Most of the included trials had a high risk of bias (N = 20; 76.92%). Our review found a significant reduction in fasting blood glucose (FBG, -2.18 [ 95% CI -3.18, -1.18] mmol/L), insulin (-0.99 [-2.71, 0.74] μU/L), Glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1C) (-0.53% [-0.88, -0.19]), Homeostatic Model Assessment for Insulin Resistance (HOMA-IR) (-0.74% [-1.10, -0.38]) and insulin sensitivity (-0.90 μU/l/min [-1.75, -0.06]) following physical activity interventions. The review reports low certainty of evidence across all outcome measures.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

Physical activity interventions were found to improve glycaemic control among African adults. However, the optimal physical activity dose for demonstrating meaningful benefits on glucose tolerance still remains unclear due to the limited number of primary studies available.

Do energy expenditure differences across work postures influence cognitive processing speed? A counter-balanced randomised cross-over trial

BACKGROUND

Anecdotal evidence links occupational sedentary behaviour, low energy expenditure (EE) and cognitive dysfunction. Nevertheless, EE across different work postures including active workstations remains unclear and its influence on cognitive processing speed is yet to be established.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to investigate differences in EE across various work postures and its influence on cognitive processing speed.

METHODS

Sixteen desk-based employees performed simulated work tasks (typing, reading and cognitive tasks) in three different work positions (sitting, standing, and walking) in three different days. EE was measured for three days consecutively for 30-minutes in three simulated working postures using indirect calorimetry. Cognitive processing speed was assessed through computer-based choice reaction times during each work posture. The outcome variables of interest (EE, reaction times and accuracy) were compared between three work postures using repeated measures ANOVA and Pearson correlation.

RESULTS

EE in walking posture was higher (5.57±0.45 Kcal) than sitting (1.07±0.12 Kcal) and standing (1.88±0.42 Kcal). Total EE was significantly higher in walking than standing (35.17±6.86 Kcal) and sitting postures (41.37±8.46 Kcal). We did not find any significant differences in cognitive processing speed between different work postures except within standing work condition (60.22±13.97 ms). Accuracy was found to be reduced in walking compared to sitting (0.76±0.83%) and standing (0.43±0.09%) but not reached significance.

CONCLUSION

Although significant differences in EE were observed between work postures, walking or standing at work did not affect the cognitive processing speed.

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally.

METHODS

The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01-4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3-48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1-45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60-3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8-54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36-1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5-41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6-28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8-25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9-42·8] and 33·3% [25·8-42·0]).

INTERPRETATION

The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020

BACKGROUND

The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year.

METHODS

For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose-response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15-95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol.

FINDINGS

The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15-39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0-0) and 0·603 (0·400-1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0-0) and 1·75 (0·698-4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0-0·403) to 1·87 (0·500-3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0-0·900) and 6·94 (3·40-8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3-65·4) were aged 15-39 years and 76·9% (73·0-81·3) were male.

INTERPRETATION

There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Glycemic status among newly diagnosed tuberculosis patients and their treatment outcomes- A prospective cohort study

Introduction and Aim: Tuberculosis is a serious systemic infection, which is a serious threat for developing countries including India. To address the disease burden, India has rolled out National Tuberculosis Elimination Program (NTEP) incorporating daily drug regimen with appropriate weight bands for treatment. Monitoring treatment outcomes for daily drug regimen with one-year post-treatment follow-up was the objective of the study.   Materials and Methods: A prospective community-based cohort study was conducted between January 2020 and September 2021, in Udupi district. Patients were recruited from 62 different Primary health centres. Their baseline data was collected, glycaemic status was assessed using glycated hemoglobin. The patients were followed up till their treatment completion and one-year post-treatment follow-up was also done.   Results: One hundred and two patients were diagnosed with tuberculosis during the 1st quarter of 2020 (Jan-Mar 2020) and started on daily drug regimen treatment. Favourable outcomes were noted among 107(95.1%), while unfavourable outcomes were noted among 5(4.9%). Females in younger age group and free from comorbidities had favourable outcomes. Older age groups, prediabetics, patients with lower BMI, and pulmonary tuberculosis had unfavourable outcomes.   Conclusion: The daily drug regimen for tuberculosis was found to be effective in terms of reducing the treatment failure rates. Evaluation of glycaemic status using Glycosylated hemoglobin at the time of diagnosis of tuberculosis is desirable. So that, life style modification could be suggested to avoid progression of prediabetes to diabetes. Screening for diabetes using Glycosylated hemoglobin at treatment initiation is advocated to avoid unfavourable outcomes during TB treatment.

Psychological well-being and coping strategies among secondary school teachers: A cross-sectional study

INTRODUCTION

Educators, academicians, and teachers are responsible for the development of the nation's human capital. Teacher coping methods are becoming more widely recognized as a key factor in determining teacher effectiveness. The aim of this study was to identify the various coping strategies adopted by high school teachers in Southern India.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted in government, aided, and unaided schools of Udupi, a coastal district in Southern India. A self-administered questionnaire was used to collect the data from 460 high school teachers chosen based on convenience sampling. The coping strategies were identified using a modified version of Brief COPE(Coping Orientation to Problems Experienced) Inventory (Carver, 1997). Data were entered using SPSS version 15 and descriptive statistics was performed.

RESULTS

The study found that teachers had moderate level of coping skills in all domains. The most popular coping techniques used by secondary school teachers were positive reframing, active coping, and planning; nevertheless, substance use was recognized as the least popular coping strategy.

CONCLUSION

Positive reframing, active coping, and preparation were the most commonly used coping strategies by the teachers in the survey. Teachers are a vital resource who have received less attention than they deserve for their psychological well-being. A customized intervention program based on their perceived needs could be a good place to start.

Global, regional, and national burden of hepatitis B, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background

Combating viral hepatitis is part of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and WHO has put forth hepatitis B elimination targets in its Global Health Sector Strategy on Viral Hepatitis (WHO-GHSS) and Interim Guidance for Country Validation of Viral Hepatitis Elimination (WHO Interim Guidance). We estimated the global, regional, and national prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV), as well as mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to HBV, as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. This included estimates for 194 WHO member states, for which we compared our estimates to WHO elimination targets.

Methods

The primary data sources were population-based serosurveys, claims and hospital discharges, cancer registries, vital registration systems, and published case series. We estimated chronic HBV infection and the burden of HBV-related diseases, defined as an aggregate of cirrhosis due to hepatitis B, liver cancer due to hepatitis B, and acute hepatitis B. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian mixed-effects meta-regression tool, to estimate the prevalence of chronic HBV infection, cirrhosis, and aetiological proportions of cirrhosis. We used mortality-to-incidence ratios modelled with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to estimate the incidence of liver cancer. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) model, a tool that selects models and covariates on the basis of out-of-sample performance, to estimate mortality due to cirrhosis, liver cancer, and acute hepatitis B.

Findings

In 2019, the estimated global, all-age prevalence of chronic HBV infection was 4·1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 to 4·5), corresponding to 316 million (284 to 351) infected people. There was a 31·3% (29·0 to 33·9) decline in all-age prevalence between 1990 and 2019, with a more marked decline of 76·8% (76·2 to 77·5) in prevalence in children younger than 5 years. HBV-related diseases resulted in 555 000 global deaths (487 000 to 630 000) in 2019. The number of HBV-related deaths increased between 1990 and 2019 (by 5·9% [–5·6 to 19·2]) and between 2015 and 2019 (by 2·9% [–5·9 to 11·3]). By contrast, all-age and age-standardised death rates due to HBV-related diseases decreased during these periods. We compared estimates for 2019 in 194 WHO locations to WHO-GHSS 2020 targets, and found that four countries achieved a 10% reduction in deaths, 15 countries achieved a 30% reduction in new cases, and 147 countries achieved a 1% prevalence in children younger than 5 years. As of 2019, 68 of 194 countries had already achieved the 2030 target proposed in WHO Interim Guidance of an all-age HBV-related death rate of four per 100 000.

Interpretation

The prevalence of chronic HBV infection declined over time, particularly in children younger than 5 years, since the introduction of hepatitis B vaccination. HBV-related death rates also decreased, but HBV-related death counts increased as a result of population growth, ageing, and cohort effects. By 2019, many countries had met the interim seroprevalence target for children younger than 5 years, but few countries had met the WHO-GHSS interim targets for deaths and new cases. Progress according to all indicators must be accelerated to meet 2030 targets, and there are marked disparities in burden and progress across the world. HBV interventions, such as vaccination, testing, and treatment, must be strategically supported and scaled up to achieve elimination.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The burden of injury in Central, Eastern, and Western European sub-region: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study

BACKGROUND

Injury remains a major concern to public health in the European region. Previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study showed wide variation in injury death and disability adjusted life year (DALY) rates across Europe, indicating injury inequality gaps between sub-regions and countries. The objectives of this study were to: 1) compare GBD 2019 estimates on injury mortality and DALYs across European sub-regions and countries by cause-of-injury category and sex; 2) examine changes in injury DALY rates over a 20 year-period by cause-of-injury category, sub-region and country; and 3) assess inequalities in injury mortality and DALY rates across the countries.

METHODS

We performed a secondary database descriptive study using the GBD 2019 results on injuries in 44 European countries from 2000 to 2019. Inequality in DALY rates between these countries was assessed by calculating the DALY rate ratio between the highest-ranking country and lowest-ranking country in each year.

RESULTS

In 2019, in Eastern Europe 80 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 71 to 89] people per 100,000 died from injuries; twice as high compared to Central Europe (38 injury deaths per 100,000; 95% UI 34 to 42) and three times as high compared to Western Europe (27 injury deaths per 100,000; 95%UI 25 to 28). The injury DALY rates showed less pronounced differences between Eastern (5129 DALYs per 100,000; 95% UI: 4547 to 5864), Central (2940 DALYs per 100,000; 95% UI: 2452 to 3546) and Western Europe (1782 DALYs per 100,000; 95% UI: 1523 to 2115). Injury DALY rate was lowest in Italy (1489 DALYs per 100,000) and highest in Ukraine (5553 DALYs per 100,000). The difference in injury DALY rates by country was larger for males compared to females. The DALY rate ratio was highest in 2005, with DALY rate in the lowest-ranking country (Russian Federation) 6.0 times higher compared to the highest-ranking country (Malta). After 2005, the DALY rate ratio between the lowest- and the highest-ranking country gradually decreased to 3.7 in 2019.

CONCLUSIONS

Injury mortality and DALY rates were highest in Eastern Europe and lowest in Western Europe, although differences in injury DALY rates declined rapidly, particularly in the past decade. The injury DALY rate ratio of highest- and lowest-ranking country declined from 2005 onwards, indicating declining inequalities in injuries between European countries.

Diabetes mortality and trends before 25 years of age: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Diabetes, particularly type 1 diabetes, at younger ages can be a largely preventable cause of death with the correct health care and services. We aimed to evaluate diabetes mortality and trends at ages younger than 25 years globally using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We used estimates of GBD 2019 to calculate international diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years in 1990 and 2019. Data sources for causes of death were obtained from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and other surveillance systems for 1990-2019. We estimated death rates for each location using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed the association of age-standardised death rates per 100 000 population with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and a measure of universal health coverage (UHC) and described the variability within SDI quintiles. We present estimates with their 95% uncertainty intervals.

FINDINGS

In 2019, 16 300 (95% uncertainty interval 14 200 to 18 900) global deaths due to diabetes (type 1 and 2 combined) occurred in people younger than 25 years and 73·7% (68·3 to 77·4) were classified as due to type 1 diabetes. The age-standardised death rate was 0·50 (0·44 to 0·58) per 100 000 population, and 15 900 (97·5%) of these deaths occurred in low to high-middle SDI countries. The rate was 0·13 (0·12 to 0·14) per 100 000 population in the high SDI quintile, 0·60 (0·51 to 0·70) per 100 000 population in the low-middle SDI quintile, and 0·71 (0·60 to 0·86) per 100 000 population in the low SDI quintile. Within SDI quintiles, we observed large variability in rates across countries, in part explained by the extent of UHC (r2=0·62). From 1990 to 2019, age-standardised death rates decreased globally by 17·0% (-28·4 to -2·9) for all diabetes, and by 21·0% (-33·0 to -5·9) when considering only type 1 diabetes. However, the low SDI quintile had the lowest decline for both all diabetes (-13·6% [-28·4 to 3·4]) and for type 1 diabetes (-13·6% [-29·3 to 8·9]).

INTERPRETATION

Decreasing diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years remains an important challenge, especially in low and low-middle SDI countries. Inadequate diagnosis and treatment of diabetes is likely to be major contributor to these early deaths, highlighting the urgent need to provide better access to insulin and basic diabetes education and care. This mortality metric, derived from readily available and frequently updated GBD data, can help to monitor preventable diabetes-related deaths over time globally, aligned with the UN's Sustainable Development Targets, and serve as an indicator of the adequacy of basic diabetes care for type 1 and type 2 diabetes across nations.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years for 29 Cancer Groups From 2010 to 2019: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

IMPORTANCE

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) provided systematic estimates of incidence, morbidity, and mortality to inform local and international efforts toward reducing cancer burden.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate cancer burden and trends globally for 204 countries and territories and by Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintiles from 2010 to 2019.

EVIDENCE REVIEW

The GBD 2019 estimation methods were used to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2019 and over the past decade. Estimates are also provided by quintiles of the SDI, a composite measure of educational attainment, income per capita, and total fertility rate for those younger than 25 years. Estimates include 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were an estimated 23.6 million (95% UI, 22.2-24.9 million) new cancer cases (17.2 million when excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 10.0 million (95% UI, 9.36-10.6 million) cancer deaths globally, with an estimated 250 million (235-264 million) DALYs due to cancer. Since 2010, these represented a 26.3% (95% UI, 20.3%-32.3%) increase in new cases, a 20.9% (95% UI, 14.2%-27.6%) increase in deaths, and a 16.0% (95% UI, 9.3%-22.8%) increase in DALYs. Among 22 groups of diseases and injuries in the GBD 2019 study, cancer was second only to cardiovascular diseases for the number of deaths, years of life lost, and DALYs globally in 2019. Cancer burden differed across SDI quintiles. The proportion of years lived with disability that contributed to DALYs increased with SDI, ranging from 1.4% (1.1%-1.8%) in the low SDI quintile to 5.7% (4.2%-7.1%) in the high SDI quintile. While the high SDI quintile had the highest number of new cases in 2019, the middle SDI quintile had the highest number of cancer deaths and DALYs. From 2010 to 2019, the largest percentage increase in the numbers of cases and deaths occurred in the low and low-middle SDI quintiles.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The results of this systematic analysis suggest that the global burden of cancer is substantial and growing, with burden differing by SDI. These results provide comprehensive and comparable estimates that can potentially inform efforts toward equitable cancer control around the world.

Global, regional, and national sex differences in the global burden of tuberculosis by HIV status, 1990-2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis is a major contributor to the global burden of disease, causing more than a million deaths annually. Given an emphasis on equity in access to diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis in global health targets, evaluations of differences in tuberculosis burden by sex are crucial. We aimed to assess the levels and trends of the global burden of tuberculosis, with an emphasis on investigating differences in sex by HIV status for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We used a Bayesian hierarchical Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) platform to analyse 21 505 site-years of vital registration data, 705 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, and 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data to estimate mortality due to tuberculosis among HIV-negative individuals. We used a population attributable fraction approach to estimate mortality related to HIV and tuberculosis coinfection. A compartmental meta-regression tool (DisMod-MR 2.1) was then used to synthesise all available data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, population-based tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis cause-specific mortality, to produce estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality that were internally consistent. We further estimated the fraction of tuberculosis mortality that is attributable to independent effects of risk factors, including smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes, for HIV-negative individuals. For individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, we assessed mortality attributable to HIV risk factors including unsafe sex, intimate partner violence (only estimated among females), and injection drug use. We present 95% uncertainty intervals for all estimates.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, among HIV-negative individuals, there were 1·18 million (95% uncertainty interval 1·08-1·29) deaths due to tuberculosis and 8·50 million (7·45-9·73) incident cases of tuberculosis. Among HIV-positive individuals, there were 217 000 (153 000-279 000) deaths due to tuberculosis and 1·15 million (1·01-1·32) incident cases in 2019. More deaths and incident cases occurred in males than in females among HIV-negative individuals globally in 2019, with 342 000 (234 000-425 000) more deaths and 1·01 million (0·82-1·23) more incident cases in males than in females. Among HIV-positive individuals, 6250 (1820-11 400) more deaths and 81 100 (63 300-100 000) more incident cases occurred among females than among males in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates among HIV-negative males were more than two times greater in 105 countries and age-standardised incidence rates were more than 1·5 times greater in 74 countries than among HIV-negative females in 2019. The fraction of global tuberculosis deaths among HIV-negative individuals attributable to alcohol use, smoking, and diabetes was 4·27 (3·69-5·02), 6·17 (5·48-7·02), and 1·17 (1·07-1·28) times higher, respectively, among males than among females in 2019. Among individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, the fraction of mortality attributable to injection drug use was 2·23 (2·03-2·44) times greater among males than females, whereas the fraction due to unsafe sex was 1·06 (1·05-1·08) times greater among females than males.

INTERPRETATION

As countries refine national tuberculosis programmes and strategies to end the tuberculosis epidemic, the excess burden experienced by males is important. Interventions are needed to actively communicate, especially to men, the importance of early diagnosis and treatment. These interventions should occur in parallel with efforts to minimise excess HIV burden among women in the highest HIV burden countries that are contributing to excess HIV and tuberculosis coinfection burden for females. Placing a focus on tuberculosis burden among HIV-negative males and HIV and tuberculosis coinfection among females might help to diminish the overall burden of tuberculosis. This strategy will be crucial in reaching both equity and burden targets outlined by global health milestones.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15-39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults.

METHODS

Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15-39 years to define adolescents and young adults.

FINDINGS

There were 1·19 million (95% UI 1·11-1·28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000-425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15-39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59·6 [54·5-65·7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53·2 [48·8-57·9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14·2 [12·9-15·6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13·6 [12·6-14·8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23·5 million (21·9-25·2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2·7% (1·9-3·6) came from YLDs and 97·3% (96·4-98·1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally.

INTERPRETATION

Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, American Lebanese Syrian Associated Charities, St Baldrick's Foundation, and the National Cancer Institute.

Tracking development assistance for health and for COVID-19: a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2050

BACKGROUND

The rapid spread of COVID-19 renewed the focus on how health systems across the globe are financed, especially during public health emergencies. Development assistance is an important source of health financing in many low-income countries, yet little is known about how much of this funding was disbursed for COVID-19. We aimed to put development assistance for health for COVID-19 in the context of broader trends in global health financing, and to estimate total health spending from 1995 to 2050 and development assistance for COVID-19 in 2020.

METHODS

We estimated domestic health spending and development assistance for health to generate total health-sector spending estimates for 204 countries and territories. We leveraged data from the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database to produce estimates of domestic health spending. To generate estimates for development assistance for health, we relied on project-level disbursement data from the major international development agencies' online databases and annual financial statements and reports for information on income sources. To adjust our estimates for 2020 to include disbursements related to COVID-19, we extracted project data on commitments and disbursements from a broader set of databases (because not all of the data sources used to estimate the historical series extend to 2020), including the UN Office of Humanitarian Assistance Financial Tracking Service and the International Aid Transparency Initiative. We reported all the historic and future spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2020 US$, 2020 US$ per capita, purchasing-power parity-adjusted US$ per capita, and as a proportion of gross domestic product. We used various models to generate future health spending to 2050.

FINDINGS

In 2019, health spending globally reached $8·8 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·7-8·8) or $1132 (1119-1143) per person. Spending on health varied within and across income groups and geographical regions. Of this total, $40·4 billion (0·5%, 95% UI 0·5-0·5) was development assistance for health provided to low-income and middle-income countries, which made up 24·6% (UI 24·0-25·1) of total spending in low-income countries. We estimate that $54·8 billion in development assistance for health was disbursed in 2020. Of this, $13·7 billion was targeted toward the COVID-19 health response. $12·3 billion was newly committed and $1·4 billion was repurposed from existing health projects. $3·1 billion (22·4%) of the funds focused on country-level coordination and $2·4 billion (17·9%) was for supply chain and logistics. Only $714·4 million (7·7%) of COVID-19 development assistance for health went to Latin America, despite this region reporting 34·3% of total recorded COVID-19 deaths in low-income or middle-income countries in 2020. Spending on health is expected to rise to $1519 (1448-1591) per person in 2050, although spending across countries is expected to remain varied.

INTERPRETATION

Global health spending is expected to continue to grow, but remain unequally distributed between countries. We estimate that development organisations substantially increased the amount of development assistance for health provided in 2020. Continued efforts are needed to raise sufficient resources to mitigate the pandemic for the most vulnerable, and to help curtail the pandemic for all.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Regularly updated data on stroke and its pathological types, including data on their incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiological trends, are important for evidence-based stroke care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) aims to provide a standardised and comprehensive measurement of these metrics at global, regional, and national levels.

METHODS

We applied GBD 2019 analytical tools to calculate stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of DALYs (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) associated with 19 risk factors, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. These estimates were provided for ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and all strokes combined, and stratified by sex, age group, and World Bank country income level.

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were 12·2 million (95% UI 11·0-13·6) incident cases of stroke, 101 million (93·2-111) prevalent cases of stroke, 143 million (133-153) DALYs due to stroke, and 6·55 million (6·00-7·02) deaths from stroke. Globally, stroke remained the second-leading cause of death (11·6% [10·8-12·2] of total deaths) and the third-leading cause of death and disability combined (5·7% [5·1-6·2] of total DALYs) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the absolute number of incident strokes increased by 70·0% (67·0-73·0), prevalent strokes increased by 85·0% (83·0-88·0), deaths from stroke increased by 43·0% (31·0-55·0), and DALYs due to stroke increased by 32·0% (22·0-42·0). During the same period, age-standardised rates of stroke incidence decreased by 17·0% (15·0-18·0), mortality decreased by 36·0% (31·0-42·0), prevalence decreased by 6·0% (5·0-7·0), and DALYs decreased by 36·0% (31·0-42·0). However, among people younger than 70 years, prevalence rates increased by 22·0% (21·0-24·0) and incidence rates increased by 15·0% (12·0-18·0). In 2019, the age-standardised stroke-related mortality rate was 3·6 (3·5-3·8) times higher in the World Bank low-income group than in the World Bank high-income group, and the age-standardised stroke-related DALY rate was 3·7 (3·5-3·9) times higher in the low-income group than the high-income group. Ischaemic stroke constituted 62·4% of all incident strokes in 2019 (7·63 million [6·57-8·96]), while intracerebral haemorrhage constituted 27·9% (3·41 million [2·97-3·91]) and subarachnoid haemorrhage constituted 9·7% (1·18 million [1·01-1·39]). In 2019, the five leading risk factors for stroke were high systolic blood pressure (contributing to 79·6 million [67·7-90·8] DALYs or 55·5% [48·2-62·0] of total stroke DALYs), high body-mass index (34·9 million [22·3-48·6] DALYs or 24·3% [15·7-33·2]), high fasting plasma glucose (28·9 million [19·8-41·5] DALYs or 20·2% [13·8-29·1]), ambient particulate matter pollution (28·7 million [23·4-33·4] DALYs or 20·1% [16·6-23·0]), and smoking (25·3 million [22·6-28·2] DALYs or 17·6% [16·4-19·0]).

INTERPRETATION

The annual number of strokes and deaths due to stroke increased substantially from 1990 to 2019, despite substantial reductions in age-standardised rates, particularly among people older than 70 years. The highest age-standardised stroke-related mortality and DALY rates were in the World Bank low-income group. The fastest-growing risk factor for stroke between 1990 and 2019 was high body-mass index. Without urgent implementation of effective primary prevention strategies, the stroke burden will probably continue to grow across the world, particularly in low-income countries.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Serration pattern analysis as a practical adjunct tool for categorization of subepidermal autoimmune blistering diseases

BACKGROUND

Serration pattern analysis helps in the classification of subepidermal autoimmune blistering disorders; more precisely, it helps to differentiate epidermolysis bullosa acquisita from other subepidermal autoimmune blistering disorders. Most of the published reports of this tool have come from a single center.

OBJECTIVES

The objectives of the study were to study the utility of serration pattern analysis in classifying subepidermal autoimmune blistering disorders.

METHODS

Seventy five cases of subepidermal autoimmune blistering disorders were enrolled in this prospective study. A three millimeter punch biopsy was taken from the perilesional skin or mucosa for direct immunofluorescence; indirect immunofluorescence was carried out using salt-split skin. Subclassification of subepidermal autoimmune blistering disorders was done based on direct immunofluorescence, indirect immunofluorescence on salt-split skin, indirect immunofluorescence using knockout skin and serration pattern analysis findings.

RESULTS

Indirect immunofluorescence was positive in 68 cases; 14 cases showed a dermal staining pattern while the rest showed either an epidermal or a combined pattern. All patients with epidermal or combined staining patterns showed "n" serrated pattern on direct immunofluorescence. Nine patients with dermal staining on indirect immunofluorescence also revealed an "n" serration pattern on direct immunofluorescence indicating the diagnosis of anti-p200 pemphigoid, and the rest showed a "u" serrated pattern. Three patients with negative indirect immunofluorescence showed "u" serration on direct immunofluorescence while the rest showed "n" serration.

LIMITATIONS

ELISA and immunoblotting could not be performed due to resource constraints.

CONCLUSION

Based on indirect immunofluorescence and serration pattern analysis, classification of the majority of patients with subepidermal autoimmune blistering disorders was possible in our study. Pattern recognition is a cost-effective tool and can be easily learnt. It is recommended to be practiced in all laboratories where facilities for advanced immunological diagnosis are unavailable.

SMART STEP - SMARTphone-driven exercise and pedometer-based STEP intervention to promote physical activity among desk-based employees: Study protocol for a three-arm cluster randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Prolonged sitting in desk-based office workers is found to be associated with increased cardiometabolic risk and poor cognitive performance. Technology-based physical activity (PA) interventions using smartphone applications (SmPh app) to promote PA levels might be effective in reducing cardiometabolic risk among sedentary population but the evidence remains inconclusive.

OBJECTIVE

The objective is to investigate the effects of a technology-based PA intervention compared to PA education with a worksite manual or no intervention on PA levels, cardiometabolic risk, cognitive performance, and work productivity among desk-based employees.

METHOD

A three-arm clustered randomized trial will be conducted. The study will be conducted among various administrative offices of a multifaceted university in India. Desk-based employees aged between 30 and 50 years (n = 159; 53 in each arm) will be recruited. Employees from various constituent institutions (clusters) of the university will be randomized into one of the three following groups - SMART: SmPh app-driven break reminders (visual exercise prompts) plus pedometer-based step intervention, TRADE: worksite PA education with a manual plus American College of Sports Medicine guided PA prescription, or CONTROL: usual work group. At baseline and after the 1st, 3rd and 6th month of the trial period, accelerometer-measured sitting time and PA levels, cardiometabolic risk (fasting blood glucose, triglycerides, insulin, blood pressure, heart rate variability, functional capacity, and subcutaneous fat), cognitive performance (executive function), sickness absenteeism and work limitations will be assessed by a blinded assessor. Therapist delivering interventions will not be blinded.

CONCLUSION

This trial will determine whether a combined SmPh-app and pedometer-based intervention is more effective than education or no intervention in altering PA levels, cardiometabolic risk and cognitive performance among desk-based employees in India. This study has the potential to foster institutional recommendations for using SmPh-based technology and pedometers to promote PA and reduce sedentary behavior at work.

Measuring routine childhood vaccination coverage in 204 countries and territories, 1980-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020, Release 1

BACKGROUND

Measuring routine childhood vaccination is crucial to inform global vaccine policies and programme implementation, and to track progress towards targets set by the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) and Immunization Agenda 2030. Robust estimates of routine vaccine coverage are needed to identify past successes and persistent vulnerabilities. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020, Release 1, we did a systematic analysis of global, regional, and national vaccine coverage trends using a statistical framework, by vaccine and over time.

METHODS

For this analysis we collated 55 326 country-specific, cohort-specific, year-specific, vaccine-specific, and dose-specific observations of routine childhood vaccination coverage between 1980 and 2019. Using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, we produced location-specific and year-specific estimates of 11 routine childhood vaccine coverage indicators for 204 countries and territories from 1980 to 2019, adjusting for biases in country-reported data and reflecting reported stockouts and supply disruptions. We analysed global and regional trends in coverage and numbers of zero-dose children (defined as those who never received a diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis [DTP] vaccine dose), progress towards GVAP targets, and the relationship between vaccine coverage and sociodemographic development.

FINDINGS

By 2019, global coverage of third-dose DTP (DTP3; 81·6% [95% uncertainty interval 80·4-82·7]) more than doubled from levels estimated in 1980 (39·9% [37·5-42·1]), as did global coverage of the first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1; from 38·5% [35·4-41·3] in 1980 to 83·6% [82·3-84·8] in 2019). Third-dose polio vaccine (Pol3) coverage also increased, from 42·6% (41·4-44·1) in 1980 to 79·8% (78·4-81·1) in 2019, and global coverage of newer vaccines increased rapidly between 2000 and 2019. The global number of zero-dose children fell by nearly 75% between 1980 and 2019, from 56·8 million (52·6-60·9) to 14·5 million (13·4-15·9). However, over the past decade, global vaccine coverage broadly plateaued; 94 countries and territories recorded decreasing DTP3 coverage since 2010. Only 11 countries and territories were estimated to have reached the national GVAP target of at least 90% coverage for all assessed vaccines in 2019.

INTERPRETATION

After achieving large gains in childhood vaccine coverage worldwide, in much of the world this progress was stalled or reversed from 2010 to 2019. These findings underscore the importance of revisiting routine immunisation strategies and programmatic approaches, recentring service delivery around equity and underserved populations. Strengthening vaccine data and monitoring systems is crucial to these pursuits, now and through to 2030, to ensure that all children have access to, and can benefit from, lifesaving vaccines.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Economic burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus management: Epidemiological determinants from a coastal community of Southern India

Expenditure on diabetes mellitus is increasing worldwide and is determined by multiple factors and knowledge about these factors may help to improve patient management and reduce health-care cost. The present study aims to determine the factors influencing the expenditure incurred by patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). A cross-sectional survey was conducted among 809 patients with T2DM from a coastal community in Southern India. Expenditure incurred for the management of T2DM in the previous year was collected using a predesigned survey tool. Duration of disease, source of diabetes care, presence of comorbidities, hospitalization, and adherence to medications were studied as potential cost predictors. Age, gender, education, occupation, and socioeconomic status as key determinants were evaluated. Expenditure incurred by patients with T2DM was estimated to be INR 5041 (2516-11,224) annually while the presence of comorbidities led to higher expenditure, INR 9133 (4034-19,053). Medication and hospitalization were the major drivers of direct cost. Subjects visiting private health facilities had a higher median cost with respect to diabetes-related care. Advancing age, male gender, high socioeconomic status, higher literacy, and longer duration of diabetes were identified as significant independent predictors of cost on multivariate analysis. The high cost of diabetes supports the need for strengthening public and private primary care facilities to provide standard care for diabetes.

Are free workplace health promotion apps adequately mapped with behavior change theories, techniques and desired features? A content analysis

Free smartphone applications that aim to promote physical activity or reduce sedentary behavior at workplaces were questioned for its content such as technical features, behavior change techniques (BCT) and security concerns. To evaluate systematically whether smartphone apps are mapped adequately with BCTs and security concerns. Free apps in Google Play store were searched and coded for BCTs systematically in July 2020. Two reviewers independently coded apps that aimed to promote physical activity (n = 18) and reduce sedentary behavior (n = 16) using a taxonomy of 26 BCTs. BCTs, features and security concerns among apps promoting physical activity and reducing sedentary behavior were analyzed. While the features (social support, gamification, or rewards) help increase physical activity and decrease sedentary behavior, the apps do not typically include the above features. Further, the apps were based on an average of 13 (4-21) BCTs. The BCTs coded most frequently were "self-monitoring" (100%), "general encouragement" (97%), and "goal setting" (n = 94%). No significant relation between user rating and BCTs was found in the apps. Majority of the free apps that aimed to increase physical activity or reduce sedentary behavior at workplaces were not adequately based on BCTs and lacked essential features facilitating long term behavior compliance at workplaces. Hence, there is a need to develop newer applications mapped adequately with BCTs, involving the collaborative work of behavioral scientists, app developers and policymakers. Clinical Trial Registry of India CTRI/2020/03/024138.

Predictors of psychological well-being among high school teachers: A cross-sectional study from Southern India

Background: Well-being is increasingly emerging as an important determinant of teacher effectiveness. Aim and objective: To assess the predictors of psychological well-being in Southern India. Settings and design: A cross-sectional study was conducted among 460 high school teachers from government and private schools in Udupi district. Methods and materials: Ryff’s psychological well-being scale (1989) was used. Statistical analysis used: Predictors were identified using logistic regression and p<0.05 was considered to be statistically significant Results: Autonomy, personal growth, positive relations, purpose in life and self-acceptance emerged as predictors of psychological well-being. Age predicted the subdomain of autonomy; number and age of children predicted environmental mastery; gender, monthly income and travelling time of teachers predicted the subdomain of self-acceptance among teachers. Conclusion: Teachers are an important resource whose psychological well-being has not received the attention it is due. An intervention program designed to fit their felt needs may be a step in the right direction.

Effect of maternal perceived stress during pregnancy on gestational diabetes mellitus risk: A prospective case-control study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

A variety of risk factors have been reported for the development of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). But limited review on the role of antenatal perceived stress necessitated the design of the present study to evaluate the association between GDM and perceived stress during pregnancy.

METHODS

A prospective case-control study was carried out among 100 GDM cases and 273 matched controls, attending regular antenatal clinic at two private hospitals of Karnataka. Data was collected by personal interviews using a standard questionnaire. Perceived stress was assessed using the Cohen 10-item Perceived Stress Scale. Score of ≥20 was identified as high stress. Statistical Package for the Social Sciences version 15 was used for analysis.

RESULTS

Exposure rates for high maternal perceived stress among cases during pregnancy were noted. The odds of GDM were 13 folds higher among those with high antenatal stress (≥20) compared to those with low (<20) (p < 0.001) perceived stress. No correlation between maternal antenatal stress and blood glucose following OGTT was noted.

CONCLUSIONS

The study identified high perceived stress during pregnancy as a potential risk factor for GDM.

Prevalence of Maternal Measles Antibody and Its Associated Factors among Infants in Coastal Karnataka, India

BACKGROUND

The current recommendation in India to commence first dose of measles immunization is at 9 months of age. The effectiveness of measles vaccination is greatly impacted by the level of maternal measles antibody (MMA) during infancy.

OBJECTIVES

To find the prevalence of MMA and to study the maternal and infant factors associated with persistence of MMA among the infants in a Indian rural community.

METHODOLOGY

Dried blood spot sample was collected before vaccination among infants aged 9 months and above when they came for first dose of measles vaccine to assess measles-specific maternal IgG antibody titers by enzyme immunoassay. Maternal and child factors influencing persistence of MMA were collected by interviewing the mothers. Association between various factors affecting seropositivity was tested using univariate logistic regression analysis and strength of association is reported as risk ratio with 95% confidence interval.

RESULTS

Based on the qualitative estimation among all the recruited children (250) in the study, 4 (1.6%) infants showed the presence of MMA whereas 25 (10%) of children had MMA on quantitative estimation. The effect of maternal factors, child nutrition, and sociodemographic factors on the presence of MMA was not found to be statistically significant.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of persistent MMA (IgG titer ≥200 mIU/ml) among the infants aged 9-12 months was 10%. The choice of vaccinating infants at the end of 9 months for the first dose of measles vaccine is justified as the remaining (90%) of infants were susceptible for measles infection at this age.

Goiter Prevalence and Interrelated Components from Coastal Karnataka

OBJECTIVE

To assess prevalence of goiter and associated factors among school going children in Udupi district.

METHODS

A school based cross-sectional survey was conducted among 6-12 year old children. A sample of 30 villages was selected from the entire district by probability proportionate to size. One school was then randomly selected from each of the 30 villages. Goiter was assessed clinically and was graded as per the recommended criteria of World Health Organization (WHO)/ United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF)/ International Council for the Control of Iodine Deficiency Disorders (ICCIDD). Salt and urine samples were collected from a subsample for iodine estimation.

RESULTS

A total of 2703 children were examined. The mean (±SD) age of the participants was 9.6 y (±1.9). The overall prevalence of goiter in Udupi district was found to be 9.3% with 7.0% and 2.3% having grade 1 and grade 2 goiter respectively. Prevalence of goiter was significantly higher among females [153(11.1%)] as compared to males [98(7.4%)] (p = 0.001). Of the 543 salt samples analyzed, 379 (69.8%) salt samples had adequate salt iodine content (> 15 ppm); while among the children with goiter 32 (8.4%) had inadequate salt iodine. Median iodine value was 202.12 mcg/l among the 270 urine samples tested for iodine levels.

CONCLUSION

Goiter prevalence at 9.3% in the coastal district contributes to the endemicity of the public health problem. The district had adequate iodine nutrition based on median urinary iodine levels. Hence, other contributing factors for the persistence of endemic goiter need to be explored.

Utility of three dimensional (3-D) ultrasound and power Doppler in identification of high risk endometrial cancer at a tertiary care hospital in southern India: A preliminary study

OBJECTIVE

The study was conducted to find the utility of three dimensional (3-D) ultrasound and Doppler sonography in differentiating benign and malignant endometrial lesions and to ascertain the association of sonology parameters with type, grade and stage of endometrial cancer.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Women attending the gynaecology department of a tertiary care hospital, with a provisional diagnosis of carcinoma endometrium were subjected to three dimensional power Doppler ultrasound evaluation and assessment of vascular patterns. VOCAL (Virtual Organ Computer-aided Analysis) software was used to assess volume, Vascularisation Index (VI), Flow Index (FI) and Vascularisation Flow Index (VFI). Ultrasound parameters were compared with histologic diagnosis to evaluate the diagnostic performance using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curve.

RESULTS

Sixty-four women were included in the study, 33 with benign and 31 with malignant endometrial lesions. Larger endometrial volume and higher Doppler indices correlated with malignant lesions. The variables with good discriminatory potential between benign and malignant status were VI and VFI, having a sensitivity of 90.3% and specificity of around 80%. VFI (adjusted odds ratio of 40.4; (95% CI - 8.46-192.88), p value < 0.001) was the only significant variable identified by multivariate logistic regression, when adjusted for age and post-menopausal status. Multiple global and focal vessel pattern was seen predominantly in malignant cases (specificity 93.9%), although the sensitivity was low (61.2%). Higher stages and grades of tumour and non-endometrioid types had higher Doppler indices, and requires further evaluation.

CONCLUSIONS

3-D ultrasound has good discrimination potential between benign and malignant endometrial lesions and could be useful as a screening tool. However, utility of 3-D tool for differentiation between tumour characteristics needs further validation.

Prevalence and Risk Factors for Peripheral Neuropathy among Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients at a Tertiary Care Hospital in Coastal Karnataka

CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVE

In view of the growing burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) globally and associated microvascular and macrovascular complications, the study was done to assess the prevalence and risk factors for diabetic neuropathy among T2DM patients attending a tertiary care hospital.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

T2DM patients' ≥30 years of both gender, presenting to the Medicine Department at a tertiary care hospital were included in the study. Diabetic Neuropathy Symptom (DNS) questionnaire to assess symptoms and Diabetic Neuropathy Examination (DNE) scoring to assess clinical signs were used.

RESULTS

A total of 273 patients were included. The mean age was 57.8 ± 11.5 years. The male to female distribution was 75% (202) and 25% (71), respectively. According to DNS instrument, 41.4% patients scored positive for the presence of neuropathy while only 24.5% had neuropathy according to DNE score. The proportion of males affected by neuropathy was more than females. 43.1% males had a positive DNS score while only 27.2% of them had a positive DNE score. Duration of the disease was positively correlated with neuropathy. Neuropathy was more prevalent among people who had higher systolic and diastolic blood pressure as per DNS and DNE instruments.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study identified a higher proportion of males to be affected by neuropathy. Hence, more detailed evaluation must be accorded to elderly male diabetic patients with longer duration of the disease. Lifestyle modifications and watchful screening need to be incorporated as part of routine patient health education during follow-up clinic visits.

Trends in the Diagnosis of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus

Introduction. Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is defined as carbohydrate intolerance of variable degree with onset or recognition during pregnancy. As prevalence of diabetes is linked to impaired glucose tolerance during antenatal period, routine antenatal screening of GDM is required. However, screening tests for GDM remain controversial. Objective. To review different diagnostic criteria for GDM. Materials and Methods. Freely accessible, full-text articles from 1964 to 2015, available in PubMed in English language, pertaining to screening of GDM were reviewed. Results. First diagnostic criteria for GDM in 1964 by O'Sullivan and Mahan, modified by the National Diabetes Data Group (NDDG) in 1979 and Carpenter in 1982. The cut-off value as per WHO definition of GDM was 140 mg/dL, 2 hours after 75 g glucose intake. Diabetes in Pregnancy Study Group India (DIPSI), in 2006, endorsed WHO criteria but irrespective of the last meal timings. Being cost-effective, it formed the basis of national guidelines for Indians in 2014. Conclusions. As typical clinical scenarios are usually varied, practical guidelines that meet the constraints of low-resource settings like India are required.

Primary Parotid Lymphoma From A Regional Cancer Center in South India

Primary parotid lymphoma (PPL) is an unusual entity and there is limited data in Indian population. Hence we undertook this retrospective observational study of primary parotid lymphoma at our Center in Southern India. This study includes 7 consecutive cases diagnosed as PPL by tissue biopsy/superficial/deep parotidectomy confirmed by immunohistochemistry between January 2007 and December 2012.

RESULTS

Median age was 54 years (range 29- 78 years), and it was more common in males. According to Ann Arbor stage, Advanced stage (stage III and IV) was seen in 2 (28.57%). According to the International Prognostic Index (IPI), most (6) were low risk (85.7%). Overall survival ranged from 1-45 months with median OS of 18 months. To conclude, PPL presents more often in early stage and low IPI score. Surgery +/- chemoimmunotherapy with radiotherapy to the parotid is the standard treatment at present.

Treatment Compliance among Patients with Hypertension and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in a Coastal Population of Southern India

BACKGROUND

Hypertension and diabetes are major risk factors for cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease. Adherence is a primary determinant of the effectiveness of treatment because poor adherence attenuates optimum clinical benefit and paves the way for complications.

METHODS

The cross-sectional community-based survey was carried out among men and women aged 30 years and above in the field practice area of a medical college to assess treatment compliance with respect to hypertension and type 2 diabetes mellitus. The study comprised of 426 subjects, already diagnosed with hypertension (287) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (139). During house visits, data were collected by personal face-to-face interview using a pre-tested structured questionnaire. Compliance was determined by indirect methods, which included self-reporting and interviews with the patients.

RESULTS

Compliance to hypertension treatment was found to be 82.2%, while 83.6% of individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus were on regular medication. Among the individuals on regular medication, 88 (37.3%) of them had controlled blood pressure. Although the compliance was good, blood pressure control was not optimal. Adherence was better among females as compared with males. Literacy status and socio-economic background were not found to be associated with treatment compliance. High cost of treatment for hypertension (39.3%) and diabetes (30.4%) and asymptomatic nature of the disease were the most common reasons cited for not taking regular medications.

CONCLUSIONS

Adherence to hypertension and diabetes treatment was good. High cost of medications and asymptomatic nature of the disease were the reasons identified among the non-adherent patients.

Cell-free epstein-barr viral loads in childhood hodgkin lymphoma: a study from South India

Cell-free Epstein-Barr viral (EBV) DNA is detectable in plasma of patients with EBV-related lymphomas. The aim of this study was to evaluate the utility of plasma EBV DNA as a biomarker of EBV association in childhood Hodgkin lymphoma (HL). Furthermore, an attempt was made to evaluate the effectiveness of viral quantitation for assessing response to chemotherapy. Thirteen cases of childhood HL were included in this study. All 13 cases were EBV associated as reflected by expression of EBV LMP1 in the tumor specimen. Eighty-five percent had detectable EBV DNA levels; viral loads ranging from 2.9 to 156.2 × 10³ copies/ml (mean 29 × 10³ copies/ml); while in 2 patients and 30 controls tested, viral DNA was undetectable. In four patients, follow-up samples were available after three cycles of chemotherapy; all had EBV DNAemia prior to chemotherapy but undetectable EBV DNA posttherapy. This corroborated with complete response in these four patients. Plasma EBV viral load quantification maybe a useful tool for detecting EBV association with lymphomas and in monitoring response to treatment in childhood HL in centers with limited resources, more so in India where majority of childhood HL is likely to be EBV associated. This is the first Indian study estimating plasma EBV viral loads in HL.