SARS-CoV-2 Viral Replication Persists in the Human Lung for Several Weeks after Symptom Onset

Rationale: In the upper respiratory tract, replicating (culturable) severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is recoverable for ∼4-8 days after symptom onset, but there is a paucity of data about the frequency and duration of replicating virus in the lower respiratory tract (i.e., the human lung).Objectives: We undertook lung tissue sampling (needle biopsy) shortly after death in 42 mechanically ventilated decedents during the Beta and Delta waves. An independent group of 18 ambulatory patients served as a control group.Methods: Lung biopsy cores from decedents underwent viral culture, histopathological analysis, electron microscopy, transcriptomic profiling, and immunohistochemistry.Measurements and Main Results: Thirty-eight percent (16 of 42) of mechanically ventilated decedents had culturable virus in the lung for a median of 15 days (persisting for up to 4 wk) after symptom onset. Lung viral culture positivity was not associated with comorbidities or steroid use. Delta but not Beta variant lung culture positivity was associated with accelerated death and secondary bacterial infection (P < 0.05). Nasopharyngeal culture was negative in 23.1% (6 of 26) of decedents despite lung culture positivity. This hitherto undescribed biophenotype of lung-specific persisting viral replication was associated with an enhanced transcriptomic pulmonary proinflammatory response but with concurrent viral culture positivity.Conclusions: Concurrent rather than sequential active viral replication continues to drive a heightened proinflammatory response in the human lung beyond the second week of illness and was associated with variant-specific increased mortality and morbidity. These findings have potential implications for the design of interventional strategies and clinical management of patients with severe coronavirus disease (COVID-19).

Insights into a collective impact partnership to promote consumption of healthy drinks in North East Melbourne: A qualitative case study

ISSUE ADDRESSED

To explore insights and perspectives of a collective impact (CI) partnership taking on a new project that aimed to reduce sugary drink consumption and promote water as the drink of choice across North East Melbourne.

METHODS

A qualitative case study was undertaken. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with key stakeholders in the partnership. Data were analysed using thematic analysis.

RESULTS

Fourteen organisations participated in the North East Healthy Drinks Alliance. The data demonstrated that investing in developing a common agenda supported the establishment of a CI approach. The backbone organisation was found to have played a crucial role in coordinating the activities of the Alliance. This coordination was found to be particularly important in terms of ensuring that organisations were able to work on mutually reinforcing activities at their own pace. Program planning and reporting was managed through open continuous communication by the backbone organisation. The data collected pertains to the activities of the Alliance in its first 2 years, prior to the development of a shared measurement strategy, thus no data was collected on this aspect of the collective impact framework. Although some participants were found to have limited knowledge of CI, this did not seem to hinder their participation in the Alliance.

CONCLUSION

Selecting a relevant and accessible focus area and investing in developing a common agenda supported the establishment of a CI approach. SO WHAT?: The CI framework offers a valuable tool for undertaking cross-sectoral, local partnerships for health.

Sex differences in post-acute neurological sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 and symptom resolution in adults after coronavirus disease 2019 hospitalization: an international multi-centre prospective observational study

Although it is known that coronavirus disease 2019 can present with a range of neurological manifestations and in-hospital complications, sparse data exist on whether these initial neurological symptoms of coronavirus disease 2019 are closely associated with post-acute neurological sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; PANSC) and whether female versus male sex impacts symptom resolution. In this international, multi-centre, prospective, observational study across 407 sites from 15 countries (30 January 2020 to 30 April 2022), we report the prevalence and risk factors of PANSC among hospitalized adults and investigate the differences between males and females on neurological symptom resolution over time. PANSC symptoms included altered consciousness/confusion, fatigue/malaise, anosmia, dysgeusia and muscle ache/joint pain, on which information was collected at index hospitalization and during follow-up assessments. The analysis considered a time to the resolution of individual and all neurological symptoms. The resulting times were modelled by Weibull regression, assuming mixed-case interval censoring, with sex and age included as covariates. The model results were summarized as cumulative probability functions and age-adjusted and sex-adjusted median times to resolution. We included 6862 hospitalized adults with coronavirus disease 2019, who had follow-up assessments. The median age of the participants was 57 years (39.2% females). Males and females had similar baseline characteristics, except that more males (versus females) were admitted to the intensive care unit (30.5 versus 20.3%) and received mechanical ventilation (17.2 versus 11.8%). Approximately 70% of patients had multiple neurological symptoms at the first follow-up (median = 102 days). Fatigue (49.9%) and myalgia/arthralgia (45.2%) were the most prevalent symptoms of PANSC at the initial follow-up. The reported prevalence in females was generally higher (versus males) for all symptoms. At 12 months, anosmia and dysgeusia were resolved in most patients, although fatigue, altered consciousness and myalgia remained unresolved in >10% of the cohort. Females had a longer time to the resolution (5.2 versus 3.4 months) of neurological symptoms at follow-up for those with more than one neurological symptom. In the multivariable analysis, males were associated with a shorter time to the resolution of symptoms (hazard ratio = 1.53; 95% confidence interval = 1.39-1.69). Intensive care unit admission was associated with a longer time to the resolution of symptoms (hazard ratio = 0.68; 95% confidence interval = 0.60-0.77). Post-discharge stroke was uncommon (0.3% in females and 0.5% in males). Despite the methodological challenges involved in the collection of survey data, this international multi-centre prospective cohort study demonstrated that PANSC following index hospitalization was high. Symptom prevalence was higher and took longer to resolve in females than in males. This supported the fact that while males were sicker during acute illness, females were disproportionately affected by PANSC.

Association of follow-up imaging frequency with temporal incidence and patterns of distant failure following (chemo) radiotherapy for HPV related oropharyngeal cancer

OBJECTIVES

Emerging data supports radical intent therapy for oligometastatic (OM) relapsed human papilloma virus (HPV+) related oropharyngeal cancer (OPC). We assess the association of follow-up imaging frequency amongst HPV + OPC, with temporal and spatial patterns of distant relapse, to inform rationalisation of routine post-treatment imaging.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective single centre cohort study was carried out of consecutive HPV + OPC patients treated with radical intent (chemo)radiotherapy ((CT)RT) between 2011 and 2019. OM state was defined as ≤ 5 metastasis, none larger than 3 cm (OMs) or, if interval from last negative surveillance imaging > 6-months, then ≤ 10 metastasis, none larger than 5 cm, (OMp). Patients not meeting OMs / OMp criteria were deemed to have incurable diffuse metastatic disease (DMdiffuse).

RESULTS

793 HPV-OPC patients were identified with median follow-up 3.15years (range 0.2-8.9). 52 (6.6 %) patients had radiologically identified DM at first failure and were considered for analysis. The median time to recurrence was 15.1 months (range: 2.6-63 months). 87 % of distant metastasis (DM) occurred in the first two years after treatment. Twenty-seven (52 %) patients had OM (OMs or OMp) at time of failure, with 31 % having OMs. The median time from completion of treatment to diagnosis of DMdiffuse vs OM was 22.2 months (range: 2.6-63.1 months) vs 11.6 months (range: 3.5-32.5 months). The probability of being diagnosed with OM vs DMdiffuse increased with reducing interval from last negative surveillance scan to imaging identifying DM (≤6 months 88.9 %, 7-12 months 71.4 %, 13-24 months 35 %, > 24 months 22.2 %).

CONCLUSION

We demonstrate that a reduced interval between last negative imaging and subsequent radiological diagnosis of DM is associated with increased likelihood of identification of OM disease. Consideration of increased frequency of surveillance imaging during the first two years of follow up is supported, particularly for patients at high risk of distant failure.

Bridging hope: South Africa's ECMO reporting journey begins

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Mixed methods study protocol for combining stakeholder-led rapid evaluation with near real-time continuous registry data to facilitate evaluations of quality of care in intensive care units

Background

Improved access to healthcare in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) has not equated to improved health outcomes. Absence or unsustained quality of care is partly to blame. Improving outcomes in intensive care units (ICUs) requires delivery of complex interventions by multiple specialties working in concert, and the simultaneous prevention of avoidable harms associated with the illness and the treatment interventions. Therefore, successful design and implementation of improvement interventions requires understanding of the behavioural, organisational, and external factors that determine care delivery and the likelihood of achieving sustained improvement. We aim to identify care processes that contribute to suboptimal clinical outcomes in ICUs located in LMICs and to establish barriers and enablers for improving the care processes.

Methods

Using rapid evaluation methods, we will use four data collection methods: 1) registry embedded indicators to assess quality of care processes and their associated outcomes; 2) process mapping to provide a preliminary framework to understand gaps between current and desired care practices; 3) structured observations of processes of interest identified from the process mapping and; 4) focus group discussions with stakeholders to identify barriers and enablers influencing the gap between current and desired care practices. We will also collect self-assessments of readiness for quality improvement. Data collection and analysis will be led by local stakeholders, performed in parallel and through an iterative process across eight countries: Kenya, India, Malaysia, Nepal, Pakistan, South Africa, Uganda and Vietnam.

Conclusions

The results of our study will provide essential information on where and how care processes can be improved to facilitate better quality of care to critically ill patients in LMICs; thus, reduce preventable mortality and morbidity in ICUs. Furthermore, understanding the rapid evaluation methods that will be used for this study will allow other researchers and healthcare professionals to carry out similar research in ICUs and other health services.

Using EMPOWER in daily life: a qualitative investigation of implementation experiences

BACKGROUND

Digital self-management tools blended with clinical triage and peer support have the potential to improve access to early warning signs (EWS) based relapse prevention in schizophrenia care. However, the implementation of digital interventions in psychosis can be poor. Traditionally, research focused on understanding how people implement interventions has focused on the perspectives of mental health staff. Digital interventions are becoming more commonly used by patients within the context of daily life, which means there is a need to understand implementation from the perspectives of patients and carers.

METHODS

Semi-structured one-on-one interviews with 16 patients who had access to the EMPOWER digital self-management intervention during their participation in a feasibility trial, six mental health staff members who supported the patients and were enrolled in the trial, and one carer participant. Interviews focused on understanding implementation, including barriers and facilitators. Data were coded using thematic analysis.

RESULTS

The intervention was well implemented, and EMPOWER was typically perceived positively by patients, mental health staff and the carer we spoke to. However, some patients reported negative views and reported ideas for intervention improvement. Patients reported valuing that the app afforded them access to things like information or increased social contact from peer support workers that went above and beyond that offered in routine care. Patients seemed motivated to continue implementing EMPOWER in daily life when they perceived it was creating positive change to their wellbeing, but seemed less motivated if this did not occur. Mental health staff and carer views suggest they developed increased confidence patients could self-manage and valued using the fact that people they support were using the EMPOWER intervention to open up conversations about self-management and wellbeing.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings from this study suggest peer worker supported digital self-management like EMPOWER has the potential to be implemented. Further evaluations of these interventions are warranted, and conducting qualitative research on the feasibility gives insight into implementation barriers and facilitators, improving the likelihood of interventions being usable. In particular, the views of patients who demonstrated low usage levels would be valuable.

Bizarre parosteal osteochondromatous proliferation (Nora's lesion) of the hand: management of a rare clinical entity

Bizarre parosteal osteochondromatous proliferation, or Nora's lesion, is a rare benign tumour of the bone, most commonly described in the hands and feet. We present the case of a female patient in her 20s attending the hand clinic with a sudden onset, atraumatic swelling on the proximal phalanx of her right ring finger. The patient retains good hand function and remains asymptomatic 3 months after surgical excision. Our case highlights the importance of being aware of this diagnosis and differentiating it from other malignant, as well as benign tumours of the hand.

Rapidly evolving gangrenous vasculitis in a critically ill patient with ulcerative colitis: a case report

Ulcerative colitis is a disease characterised by non-granulomatous submucosal inflammation ranging from isolated proctitis to colitis. Extra-intestinal manifestations of the condition occur in multiple organ systems, with dermatological complications occurring commonly. This case report aims to highlight an uncommon dermatological complication of ulcerative colitis with particular focus on patient care and management.

Neurological manifestations of COVID-19 in adults and children

Different neurological manifestations of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in adults and children and their impact have not been well characterized. We aimed to determine the prevalence of neurological manifestations and in-hospital complications among hospitalized COVID-19 patients and ascertain differences between adults and children. We conducted a prospective multicentre observational study using the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) cohort across 1507 sites worldwide from 30 January 2020 to 25 May 2021. Analyses of neurological manifestations and neurological complications considered unadjusted prevalence estimates for predefined patient subgroups, and adjusted estimates as a function of patient age and time of hospitalization using generalized linear models. Overall, 161 239 patients (158 267 adults; 2972 children) hospitalized with COVID-19 and assessed for neurological manifestations and complications were included. In adults and children, the most frequent neurological manifestations at admission were fatigue (adults: 37.4%; children: 20.4%), altered consciousness (20.9%; 6.8%), myalgia (16.9%; 7.6%), dysgeusia (7.4%; 1.9%), anosmia (6.0%; 2.2%) and seizure (1.1%; 5.2%). In adults, the most frequent in-hospital neurological complications were stroke (1.5%), seizure (1%) and CNS infection (0.2%). Each occurred more frequently in intensive care unit (ICU) than in non-ICU patients. In children, seizure was the only neurological complication to occur more frequently in ICU versus non-ICU (7.1% versus 2.3%, P < 0.001). Stroke prevalence increased with increasing age, while CNS infection and seizure steadily decreased with age. There was a dramatic decrease in stroke over time during the pandemic. Hypertension, chronic neurological disease and the use of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation were associated with increased risk of stroke. Altered consciousness was associated with CNS infection, seizure and stroke. All in-hospital neurological complications were associated with increased odds of death. The likelihood of death rose with increasing age, especially after 25 years of age. In conclusion, adults and children have different neurological manifestations and in-hospital complications associated with COVID-19. Stroke risk increased with increasing age, while CNS infection and seizure risk decreased with age.

Lost Therapeutic Benefit of Delayed Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Control in Statin-Treated Patients and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Lipid-Lowering Intensification

OBJECTIVES

Attainment of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) therapeutic goals in statin-treated patients remains suboptimal. We quantified the health economic impact of delayed lipid-lowering intensification from an Australian healthcare and societal perspective.

METHODS

A lifetime Markov cohort model (n = 1000) estimating the impact on coronary heart disease (CHD) of intensifying lipid-lowering treatment in statin-treated patients with uncontrolled LDL-C, at moderate to high risk of CHD with no delay or after a 5-year delay, compared with standard of care (no intensification), starting at age 40 years. Intensification was tested with high-intensity statins or statins + ezetimibe. LDL-C levels were extracted from a primary care cohort. CHD risk was estimated using the pooled cohort equation. The effect of cumulative exposure to LDL-C on CHD risk was derived from Mendelian randomization data. Outcomes included CHD events, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), healthcare and productivity costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). All outcomes were discounted annually by 5%.

RESULTS

Over the lifetime horizon, compared with standard of care, achieving LDL-C control with no delay with high-intensity statins prevented 29 CHD events and yielded 30 extra QALYs (ICERs AU$13 205/QALY) versus 22 CHD events and 16 QALYs (ICER AU$20 270/QALY) with a 5-year delay. For statins + ezetimibe, no delay prevented 53 CHD events and gave 45 extra QALYs (ICER AU$37 271/QALY) versus 40 CHD events and 29 QALYs (ICER of AU$44 218/QALY) after a 5-year delay.

CONCLUSIONS

Delaying attainment of LDL-C goals translates into lost therapeutic benefit and a waste of resources. Urgent policies are needed to improve LDL-C goal attainment in statin-treated patients.

Mixed methods study protocol for combining stakeholder-led rapid evaluation with near real-time continuous registry data to facilitate evaluations of quality of care in intensive care units

Background: Improved access to healthcare in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) has not equated to improved health outcomes. Absence or unsustained quality of care is partly to blame. Improving outcomes in intensive care units (ICUs) requires delivery of complex interventions by multiple specialties working in concert, and the simultaneous prevention of avoidable harms associated with the illness and the treatment interventions. Therefore, successful design and implementation of improvement interventions requires understanding of the behavioural, organisational, and external factors that determine care delivery and the likelihood of achieving sustained improvement. We aim to identify care processes that contribute to suboptimal clinical outcomes in ICUs located in LMICs and to establish barriers and enablers for improving the care processes. Methods: Using rapid evaluation methods, we will use four data collection methods: 1) registry embedded indicators to assess quality of care processes and their associated outcomes; 2) process mapping to provide a preliminary framework to understand gaps between current and desired care practices; 3) structured observations of processes of interest identified from the process mapping and; 4) focus group discussions with stakeholders to identify barriers and enablers influencing the gap between current and desired care practices. We will also collect self-assessments of readiness for quality improvement. Data collection and analysis will be performed in parallel and through an iterative process across eight countries: Kenya, India, Malaysia, Nepal, Pakistan, South Africa, Uganda and Vietnam. Conclusions: The results of our study will provide essential information on where and how care processes can be improved to facilitate better quality of care to critically ill patients in LMICs; thus, reduce preventable mortality and morbidity in ICUs. Furthermore, understanding the rapid evaluation methods that will be used for this study will allow other researchers and healthcare professionals to carry out similar research in ICUs and other health services.

Mixed methods study protocol for combining stakeholder-led rapid evaluation with near real-time continuous registry data to facilitate evaluations of quality of care in intensive care units

Background: Improved access to healthcare in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) has not equated to improved health outcomes. Absence or unsustained quality of care is partly to blame. Improving outcomes in intensive care units (ICUs) requires delivery of complex interventions by multiple specialties working in concert, and the simultaneous prevention of avoidable harms associated with the illness and the treatment interventions. Therefore, successful design and implementation of improvement interventions requires understanding of the behavioural, organisational, and external factors that determine care delivery and the likelihood of achieving sustained improvement. We aim to identify care processes that contribute to suboptimal clinical outcomes in ICUs located in LMICs and to establish barriers and enablers for improving the care processes. Methods: Using rapid evaluation methods, we will use four data collection methods: 1) registry embedded indicators to assess quality of care processes and their associated outcomes; 2) process mapping to provide a preliminary framework to understand gaps between current and desired care practices; 3) structured observations of processes of interest identified from the process mapping and; 4) focus group discussions with stakeholders to identify barriers and enablers influencing the gap between current and desired care practices. We will also collect self-assessments of readiness for quality improvement. Data collection and analysis will be performed in parallel and through an iterative process across eight countries: Kenya, India, Malaysia, Nepal, Pakistan, South Africa, Uganda and Vietnam. Conclusions: The results of our study will provide essential information on where and how care processes can be improved to facilitate better quality of care to critically ill patients in LMICs; thus, reduce preventable mortality and morbidity in ICUs. Furthermore, understanding the rapid evaluation methods that will be used for this study will allow other researchers and healthcare professionals to carry out similar research in ICUs and other health services.

Dynamic dentin: A quantitative microscopic assessment of age and spatial changes to matrix architecture, peritubular dentin, and collagens types I and III

To investigate age and site-related changes to human dentin collagen, sound human teeth collected from donors aged 13-29 (young) and 50-74 (aged) years (n = 9/group) were cut to shallow and deep sites. Dentin collagen orientation and fibril bundling was investigated using the Picrosirius Red (PSR) stain observed under cross-polarized light microscopy (Pol), and collagen distribution was investigated using Confocal Laser Scanning Microscopy (CLSM). Collagen types III to I distribution in peritubular dentin (PTD) was revealed using Herovici stain and brightfield microscopy. Image analysis software and linear mixed modelling quantified outcomes. In situ dentin collagen was observed using Xenon Plasma Focussed Ion Beam Scanning Electron Microscopy (Xe PFIB-SEM). The PSR-Pol analysis revealed less coherently aligned and more bundled collagen fibrils in aged dentin (P = 0.005). Deep inner dentin collagen in both groups were less coherently aligned with reduced bundling. Regardless of age, CLSM showed collagen distribution remained stable; and more collagen type III was detectable in PTD located in inner dentin (Young: P = 0.006; Aged: P = 0.008). Observations following Xe PFIB-SEM cross-sectioning showed apatite-like deposits surrounding large intratubular collagen fibers, and evidence of smaller intertubular dentin collagen fibrils in situ. In conclusion, aging changes collagen network architecture, but not distribution or content.

Physical therapy for facial nerve paralysis (Bell's palsy): An updated and extended systematic review of the evidence for facial exercise therapy

OBJECTIVE

To conduct a systematic review of the effectiveness of facial exercise therapy for facial palsy patients, updating an earlier broader Cochrane review; and to provide evidence to inform the development of telerehabilitation for these patients.

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, PEDro and AMED for relevant studies published between 01 January 2011 and 30 September 2020.

METHODS

Predetermined inclusion/exclusion criteria were utilised to shortlist abstracts. Two reviewers independently appraised articles, systematically extracted data and assessed the quality of individual studies and reviews (using GRADE and AMSTAR-2, respectively). Thematic analysis used for evidence synthesis; no quantitative meta-analysis conducted. The review was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42017073067).

RESULTS

Seven new randomised controlled trials, nine observational studies, and three quasi-experimental or pilot studies were identified (n  =  854 participants). 75% utilised validated measures to record changes in facial function and/or patient-rated outcomes. High-quality trials (4/7) all reported positive impacts; as did observational studies rated as high/moderate quality (3/9). The benefit of therapy at different time points post-onset and for cases of varying clinical severity is discussed. Differences in study design prevented data pooling to strengthen estimates of therapy effects. Six new review articles identified were all rated critically low quality.

CONCLUSION

The findings of this targeted review reinforce those of the earlier more general Cochrane review. New research studies strengthen previous conclusions about the benefits of facial exercise therapy early in recovery and add to evidence of the value in chronic cases. Further standardisation of study design/outcome measures and evaluation of cost-effectiveness are recommended.

National audit of non-melanoma skin cancer excisions performed by plastic surgery in the UK

A national, multi-centre audit of non-melanoma skin cancer excisions by plastic surgery.

Effect of dentine site on resin and cement adaptation tested using X-ray and electron microscopy to evaluate bond durability and adhesive interfaces

Glass ionomer (GI) cements and self-etch (SE) or universal adhesives after etching (ER) adapt variably with dentine. Dentine characteristics vary with depth (deep/shallow), location (central/peripheral), and microscopic site (intertubular/peritubular). To directly compare adhesion to dentine, non-destructive imaging and testing are required. Here, GI, ER, and SE adapted at different dentine depths, locations, and sites were investigated using micro-CT, xenon plasma focused ion beam scanning electron microscopy (Xe PFIB-SEM), and energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS). Extracted molars were prepared to deep or shallow slices and treated with the three adhesives. Micro-CT was used to compare changes to air volume gaps, following thermocycling, and statistically analysed using a quantile regression model and Fisher's exact test. The three adhesives performed similarly across dentine depths and locations, yet no change or overall increases and decreases in gaps at all dentine depths and locations were measured. The Xe PFIB-SEM-milled dentine-adhesive interfaces facilitated high-resolution characterization, and element profiling revealed variations across the tooth-material interfaces. Dentine depth and location had no impact on adhesive durability, although microscopic differences were observed. Here we demonstrate how micro-CT and Xe PFIB-SEM can be used to compare variable dental materials without complex multi-stage specimen preparation to minimize artefacts.

Respiratory support in patients with severe COVID-19 in the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection (ISARIC) COVID-19 study: a prospective, multinational, observational study

BACKGROUND

Up to 30% of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 require advanced respiratory support, including high-flow nasal cannulas (HFNC), non-invasive mechanical ventilation (NIV), or invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). We aimed to describe the clinical characteristics, outcomes and risk factors for failing non-invasive respiratory support in patients treated with severe COVID-19 during the first two years of the pandemic in high-income countries (HICs) and low middle-income countries (LMICs).

METHODS

This is a multinational, multicentre, prospective cohort study embedded in the ISARIC-WHO COVID-19 Clinical Characterisation Protocol. Patients with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection who required hospital admission were recruited prospectively. Patients treated with HFNC, NIV, or IMV within the first 24 h of hospital admission were included in this study. Descriptive statistics, random forest, and logistic regression analyses were used to describe clinical characteristics and compare clinical outcomes among patients treated with the different types of advanced respiratory support.

RESULTS

A total of 66,565 patients were included in this study. Overall, 82.6% of patients were treated in HIC, and 40.6% were admitted to the hospital during the first pandemic wave. During the first 24 h after hospital admission, patients in HICs were more frequently treated with HFNC (48.0%), followed by NIV (38.6%) and IMV (13.4%). In contrast, patients admitted in lower- and middle-income countries (LMICs) were less frequently treated with HFNC (16.1%) and the majority received IMV (59.1%). The failure rate of non-invasive respiratory support (i.e. HFNC or NIV) was 15.5%, of which 71.2% were from HIC and 28.8% from LMIC. The variables most strongly associated with non-invasive ventilation failure, defined as progression to IMV, were high leukocyte counts at hospital admission (OR [95%CI]; 5.86 [4.83-7.10]), treatment in an LMIC (OR [95%CI]; 2.04 [1.97-2.11]), and tachypnoea at hospital admission (OR [95%CI]; 1.16 [1.14-1.18]). Patients who failed HFNC/NIV had a higher 28-day fatality ratio (OR [95%CI]; 1.27 [1.25-1.30]).

CONCLUSIONS

In the present international cohort, the most frequently used advanced respiratory support was the HFNC. However, IMV was used more often in LMIC. Higher leucocyte count, tachypnoea, and treatment in LMIC were risk factors for HFNC/NIV failure. HFNC/NIV failure was related to worse clinical outcomes, such as 28-day mortality. Trial registration This is a prospective observational study; therefore, no health care interventions were applied to participants, and trial registration is not applicable.

Descriptive Study of Facial Motor Cocontractions During Voluntary Facial Movement in a Healthy Population: A New Hypothesis Contributing to Synkinesis

Background: Motor overflow refers to involuntary movements that accompany voluntary movements in healthy individuals. This may have a role in synkinesis. Objective: To describe the frequency and magnitude of facial motor overflow in a healthy population. Methodology: Healthy participants performed unilateral facial movements: brow elevation, wink, snarl, and closed smile. Two reviewers analyzed the magnitude of each movement and cocontraction. Patterns of movements are described. Univariate analysis was used to assess the relationship between efficacy of unilateral facial control and the frequency and magnitude of cocontractions. Results: Eighty-nine participants completed the videos. Consensual mirror movements occurred in 96% of participants during unilateral eye closure and 86% during brow elevation. The most common associated movement was ipsilateral eye constriction occurring during snarl (90.1%). Improved unilateral facial control was associated with a decrease in frequency and magnitude of associated movements during brow elevation, wink, and snarl. Conclusion: This study showed stereotyped patterns of motor overflow in facial muscles that resemble those in synkinesis and become more evident as unilateral control of the face decreases.

The use of brachiobasilic arteriovenous fistulae for haemodialysis: a single-centre descriptive study

AIM

The main aim of the study was to report on our local experience with the use of brachiobasilic arteriovenous fistulae (BBAVF) and to encourage wider local acceptance of the procedure in accordance with international guidelines. The primary aim was to report on access patency. The secondary aims were to report on functional outcomes and complications.

METHODS

This was a retrospective, descriptive study of 41 consecutive haemodialysis patients who underwent BBAVF creation.

RESULTS

The primary patency rates at 30 days, and one and three years were 95.1, 48.8 and 19.5%, respectively. Assisted primary patency rates at 30 days, and one and three years were 100, 67.7 and 24.3%, respectively. Secondary patency rates at 30 days, and one and three years were 100, 70.3 and 27%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

BBAVF creation can successfully be performed in a resource-constrained environment by surgeons with limited prior experience with the technique. However, careful monitoring, well-established referral pathways for dysfunctional fistulae and access to surgical and endovascular revision seem to be key factors in ensuring long-term patency.

International Multicenter Study of Clinical Outcomes of Sinonasal Melanoma Shows Survival Benefit for Patients Treated with Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors and Potential Improvements to the Current TNM Staging System

Objectives Sinonasal mucosal melanoma (SNMM) is an extremely rare and challenging sinonasal malignancy with a poor prognosis. Standard treatment involves complete surgical resection, but the role of adjuvant therapy remains unclear. Crucially, our understanding of its clinical presentation, course, and optimal treatment remains limited, and few advancements in improving its management have been made in the recent past.

Methods We conducted an international multicenter retrospective analysis of 505 SNMM cases from 11 institutions across the United States, United Kingdom, Ireland, and continental Europe. Data on clinical presentation, diagnosis, treatment, and clinical outcomes were assessed.

Results One-, three-, and five-year recurrence-free and overall survival were 61.4, 30.6, and 22.0%, and 77.6, 49.2, and 38.3%, respectively. Compared with disease confined to the nasal cavity, sinus involvement confers significantly worse survival; based on this, further stratifying the T3 stage was highly prognostic (p < 0.001) with implications for a potential modification to the current TNM staging system. There was a statistically significant survival benefit for patients who received adjuvant radiotherapy, compared with those who underwent surgery alone (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.74, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.57–0.96, p = 0.021). Immune checkpoint blockade for the management of recurrent or persistent disease, with or without distant metastasis, conferred longer survival (HR = 0.50, 95% CI: 0.25–1.00, p = 0.036).

Conclusions We present findings from the largest cohort of SNMM reported to date. We demonstrate the potential utility of further stratifying the T3 stage by sinus involvement and present promising data on the benefit of immune checkpoint inhibitors for recurrent, persistent, or metastatic disease with implications for future clinical trials in this field.

International assessment of interobserver reproducibility of flap delineation in head and neck carcinoma

Background: Several reports have suggested that radiotherapy after reconstructive surgery for head and neck cancer (HNC), could have deleterious effects on the flaps with respect to functional outcomes. To predict and prevent toxicities, flap delineation should be accurate and reproducible. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the interobserver variability of frequent types of flaps used in HNC, based on the recent GORTEC atlas.Materials and methods: Each member of an international working group (WG) consisting of 14 experts delineated the flaps on a CT set from six patients. Each patient had one of the five most commonly used flaps in HNC: a regional pedicled pectoralis major myocutaneous flap, a local pedicled rotational soft tissue facial artery musculo-mucosal (FAMM) (2 patients), a fasciocutaneous radial forearm free flap, a soft tissue anterolateral thigh (ALT) free flap, or a fibular free flap. The WG's contours were compared to a reference contour, validated by a surgeon and a radiologist specializing in HNC. Contours were considered as reproducible if the median Dice Similarity Coefficient (DSC) was > 0.7.Results: The median volumes of the six flaps delineated by the WG were close to the reference contour value, with approximately 50 cc for the pectoral, fibula, and ALT flaps, 20 cc for the radial forearm, and up to 10 cc for the FAMM. The volumetric ratio was thus close to the optimal value of 100% for all flaps. The median DSC obtained by the WG compared to the reference for the pectoralis flap, the FAMM, the radial forearm flap, ALT flap, and the fibular flap were 0.82, 0.40, 0.76, 0.81, and 0.76, respectively.Conclusions: This study showed that the delineation of four main flaps used for HNC was reproducible. The delineation of the FAMM, however, requires close cooperation between radiologist, surgeon and radiation oncologist because of the poor visibility of this flap on CT and its small size.

Does dentine mineral change with anatomical location, microscopic site and patient age?

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The SEM BSE micrographs show dentine tubules penetrating intertubular dentine.

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SEM BSE micrographs illustrates mineral to fill mature not young dentine tubules and branches.

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Mineral density varies with the ratio of tubular to intertubular dentine.

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Dentine composition remains stable for age, anatomical location and microscopic site.

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Xe PFIB-SEM cross-sections show structural integration between peritubular and intertubular dentine.

Objective

To determine the effect of patient age (young or mature), anatomical location (shallow/deep and central/peripheral) and microscopic site (intertubular/peritubular) on dentine mineral density, distribution and composition.

Methods

Extracted posterior teeth from young (aged 19–20 years, N = 4) and mature (aged 54–77 years, N = 4) subjects were prepared to shallow and deep slices. The dentine surface elemental composition was investigated in a SEM using Backscattered Electron (BSE) micrographs, Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectroscopy, and Integrated Mineral Analysis. Qualitative comparisons and quantitative measures using machine learning were used to analyse the BSE images. Quantitative outcomes were compared using quantile or linear regression models with bootstrapping to account for the multiple measures per sample. Subsequently, a Xenon Plasma Focussed Ion Beam Scanning Electron Microscopy (Xe PFIB-SEM) was used to mill large area (100 µm) cross-sections to investigate morphology through the dentine tubules using high resolution secondary electron micrographs.

Results

With age, dentine mineral composition remains stable, but density changes with anatomical location and microscopic site. Microscopically, accessory tubules spread into intertubular dentine (ITD) from the main tubule lumens. Within the lumens, mineral deposits form calcospherites in the young that eventually coalesce in mature tubules and branches. The mineral occlusion in mature dentine increases overall ITD density to reflect peritubular dentine (PTD) infiltrate. The ITD observed in micrographs remained consistent for age and observation plane to suggest tubule deposition affects overall dentine density. Mineral density depends on the relative distribution of PTD to ITD that varies with anatomical location.

Significance

Adhesive materials may interact differently within a tooth as well as in different age groups.

1465 Anaesthetic Preferences in a Tertiary Hand Surgery Unit & Aetiology of Hand Trauma Presentations During the First UK lockdown: Lessons for the Future

Introduction

Our tertiary plastics unit serves a 4.3 million population in the South East, providing a seven-day hand trauma service. Our aim was to assess differences in quantity and aetiology of hand trauma during the April 2020 lockdown compared with the equivalent period in 2019, and our ability to reduce risk by carrying out more procedures under local anaesthetic.

Method

Retrospective notes review for hand trauma surgery patients in April 2020 (3 weeks in first UK lockdown), with a comparative period in April 2019. Fisher’s Exact Test was applied to assess for difference in method of anaesthetia, injury location (workplace vs home) and DIY versus non-DIY aetiology.

Results

2020 group: n = 165. 2019: n = 239. (31% reduction). Mean age 45 during lockdown vs 49 in 2019. There was significant reduction in the proportion of workplace injuries in 2020 (22% vs 29%), but the proportion of power tool injuries was similar (31.6% 2020 vs 26.6%). DIY injuries increased significantly (33.5% versus 9.2%). Use of local anaeshesia including increased significantly in our unit (84.2% vs 66.1% 2019) with reduction in use of regional and general anaesthesia.

Conclusions

Caseload somewhat reduced during lockdown. Fewer injuries occurred in the workplace. Our unit made good use of local anaesthetic techniques to avoid regional anaesthesia (and risk of need for GA conversion) wherever possible. Public safety warnings existed (BAPRAS and BSSH), but perhaps were less publicly available than desirable. Improving awareness further could reduce trauma surgery burden as we enter a third wave of the pandemic.

Design and Rationale of a Prospective International Follow-Up Study on Intensive Care Survivors of COVID-19: The Long-Term Impact in Intensive Care Survivors of Coronavirus Disease-19-AFTERCOR

Background: In a disease that has only existed for 18 months, it is difficult to be fully informed of the long-term sequelae of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. Evidence is growing that most organ systems can be affected by the virus, causing severe disabilities in survivors. The extent of the aftermath will declare itself over the next 5-10 years, but it is likely to be substantial with profound socio-economic impact on society. Methods: This is an international multi-center, prospective long-term follow-up study of patients who developed severe coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) and were admitted to Intensive Care Units (ICUs). The study will be conducted at international tertiary hospitals. Patients will be monitored from time of ICU discharge up to 24 months. Information will be collected on demographics, co-existing illnesses before ICU admission, severity of illness during ICU admission and post-ICU quality of life as well as organ dysfunction and recovery. Statistical analysis will consist of patient trajectories over time for the key variables of quality of life and organ function. Using latent class analysis, we will determine if there are distinct patterns of patients in terms of recovery. Multivariable regression analyses will be used to examine associations between baseline characteristics and severity variables upon admission and discharge in the ICU, and how these impact outcomes at all follow-up time points up to 2 years. Ethics and Dissemination: The core study team and local principal investigators will ensure that the study adheres to all relevant national and local regulations, and that the necessary approvals are in place before a site may enroll patients. Clinical Trial Registration:anzctr.org.au: ACTRN12620000799954.

Impact on patient management of non-mydriatic fundus photography compared to direct ophthalmoscopy in a regional Australian emergency department

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the management impact of non-mydriatic fundus photography (NMFP) implementation for appropriate ED patients; compare the diagnostic accuracy of direct ophthalmoscopy (DO) and NMFP, and determine the prevalence of fundus pathology in a regional Australian ED.

METHODS

This before/after crossover study prospectively enrolled patients presenting with headache, neurological deficit, visual disturbance and/or hypertensive urgency. Patients received DO examination, then separate NMFP examination. Emergency clinicians (ECs) were surveyed on their patient management plans following both DO examination and NMFP imaging. Telemedicine review of NMFP images was performed by an ophthalmologist within 48 h, and any additional management changes were documented.

RESULTS

The use of NMFP influenced changes in management in 52 (39%) of 133 enrolled patients (95% confidence interval 31-48%). Of these, 65% were escalations of management due to acute fundus pathology, while 35% were de-escalating changes following normal fundus findings. ECs diagnostic accuracy for acute fundus pathology improved from 0% to 29% sensitivity, and 59% to 84% specificity using DO and NMFP respectively, and telemedicine registrar review increased this to 50% sensitivity and 86% specificity. The period prevalence of acute fundus pathology was 10.5% (95% confidence interval 6-17%).

CONCLUSION

The addition of NMFP images can significantly impact the management of ED patients requiring fundus examination, facilitating expedited and optimised patient care. NMFP improves ECs diagnostic acumen for fundus pathology over DO examination and telehealth specialist review is important for diagnostic accuracy. There is a clinically important prevalence of fundus pathology in this regional ED setting.

A Predictive Model for Reactive Tube Feeding in Head and Neck Cancer Patients Undergoing Definitive (Chemo) Radiotherapy

AIMS

Careful management of a patient's nutritional status during and after treatment for head and neck squamous cell cancers (HNSCC) is crucial for optimal outcomes. The aim of this study was to develop a model for stratifying a patient's risk of requiring reactive enteral feeding through a nasogastric tube during radiotherapy for HNSCC, based on clinical and treatment-related factors.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A cohort of consecutive patients treated with definitive (chemo)radiotherapy for HNSCC between January 2016 and January 2018 was identified in the institutional electronic database for retrospective analysis. Patients requiring enteral feeding pretreatment were excluded. Clinical and treatment data were obtained from prospectively recorded electronic clinical notes and planning software.

RESULTS

Baseline patient characteristics and tumour-related parameters were captured for 225 patients. Based on the results of the univariate analysis and using a stepwise backwards selection process, clinical and dosimetric variables were selected to optimise a clinically predictive multivariate model, fitted using logistic regression. The parameters found to affect the probability, P, of requiring a nasogastric feeding tube for >4 weeks in our clinical multivariate model were: tumour site, tumour stage (early T0/1/2 stage versus advanced T3/T4 stage), chemotherapy drug (none versus any drug) and mean dose to the contralateral parotid gland. A scoring model using the regression coefficients of the selected variables in the clinical multivariate model achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.745 (95% confidence interval 0.678-0.812), indicating good discriminative performance. Internal validation of the model involved splitting the dataset 80:20 into training and test datasets 10 times and assessing differences in AUC of the model fitted to these.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed an easy-to-use prediction model based on both clinical and dosimetric parameters, which, once externally validated, can lead to more personalised treatment planning and inform clinical decision-making on the appropriateness of prophylactic versus reactive enteral feeding.

Recommendations for postoperative radiotherapy in head & neck squamous cell carcinoma in the presence of flaps: A GORTEC internationally-reviewed HNCIG-endorsed consensus

INTRODUCTION

Head and neck reconstructive surgery using a flap is increasingly common. Best practices and outcomes for postoperative radiotherapy (poRT) with flaps have not been specified. We aimed to provide consensus recommendations to assist clinical decision-making highlighting areas of uncertainty in the presence of flaps.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Radiation, medical, and surgical oncologists were assembled from GORTEC and internationally with the Head and Neck Cancer International Group (HNCIG). The consensus-building approach covered 59 topics across four domains: (1) identification of postoperative tissue changes on imaging for flap delineation, (2) understanding of tumor relapse risks and target volume definitions, (3) functional radiation-induced deterioration, (4) feasibility of flap avoidance.

RESULTS

Across the 4 domains, international consensus (median score ≥ 7/9) was achieved only for functional deterioration (73.3%); other consensus rates were 55.6% for poRT avoidance of flap structures, 41.2% for flap definition and 11.1% for tumor spread patterns. Radiation-induced flap fibrosis or atrophy and their functional impact was well recognized while flap necrosis was not, suggesting dose-volume adaptation for the former. Flap avoidance was recommended to minimize bone flap osteoradionecrosis but not soft-tissue toxicity. The need for identification (CT planning, fiducials, accurate operative report) and targeting of the junction area at risk between native tissues and flap was well recognized. Experts variably considered flaps as prone to tumor dissemination or not. Discrepancies in rating of 11 items among international reviewing participants are shown.

CONCLUSION

International GORTEC and HNCIG-endorsed recommendations were generated for the management of flaps in head and neck radiotherapy. Considerable knowledge gaps hinder further consensus, in particular with respect to tumor spread patterns.

Trends in the Utilization of Lipid-Lowering Medications in Australia: An Analysis of National Pharmacy Claims Data

Lipid-lowering medications comprise standard of care in the prevention of cardiovascular disease. This study examined the trends in the utilization of statin and non-statin medications in the Australian general population between 2013 and 2019. Pharmacoepidemiological analyses were performed using pharmacy dispensing data from Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme. One-year prevalence and incidence of statin and non-statin prescribing patterns were reported, and relative variations in prescribing examined via Poisson regression modelling. The one-year prevalence of statins' prescriptions decreased between 2013-2019 by 5.5% (from 25.0%-19.5%). Females were less likely than males to be prescribed statins (rate ratio [RR]=0.90, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.89-0.91). The one-year prevalence of ezetimibe alone, and in combination with statins, increased consistently from 2013-2019 from 1.5%-3.6% (P<0.01) and 0.1%-1.1% (P<0.01), respectively. The prevalence was higher among those aged 61-80 years (RR=1.20, 95%CI 1.10-1.21) and those aged older than 80 years (RR=1.34, 95%CI 1.22-1.47), when compared to people aged <60 years. The incidence of ezetimibe prescriptions was highest in people aged 61-80 years (RR=1.36, 95%CI 1.31-1.41) compared to those aged <60 years. The one-year prevalence of proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 inhibitor prescriptions was highest among those aged 46-60 years (RR=1.24, 95%CI 0.97-4.97) compared to people aged <46 and >60 years. Females were less likely than males to be prescribed a proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 inhibitor (RR=0.87, 95%CI 0.75-0.98). Statins remain the most prevalent lipid-lowering medication prescribed in Australia. The prescribing of non-statin medications remains low, but is increasing.

Future burden of cardiovascular disease in Australia: impact on health and economic outcomes between 2020 and 2029

AIMS

To estimate the health and economic burden of new and established cardiovascular disease from 2020 to 2029 in Australia.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A two-stage multistate dynamic model was developed to predict the burden of the incident and prevalent cardiovascular disease, for Australians 40-90 years old from 2020 to 2029. The model captured morbidity, mortality, years of life lived, quality-adjusted life years, healthcare costs, and productivity losses. Cardiovascular risk for the primary prevention population was derived using Australian demographic data and the Pooled Cohort Equation. Risk for the secondary prevention population was derived from the REACH registry. Input data for costs and utilities were extracted from published sources. All outcomes were annually discounted by 5%. A number of sensitivity analyses were undertaken to test the robustness of the study. Between 2020 and 2029, the model estimates 377 754 fatal and 991 375 non-fatal cardiovascular events. By 2029, 1 061 756 Australians will have prevalent cardiovascular disease (CVD). The population accrued 8 815 271 [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 8 805 083-8 841 432] years of life lived with CVD and 5 876 975 (5 551 484-6 226 045) QALYs. The total healthcare costs of CVD were projected to exceed Australian dollars (AUD) 61.89 (61.79-88.66) billion, and productivity losses will account for AUD 78.75 (49.40-295.25) billion, driving the total cost to surpass AUD 140.65 (123.13-370.23) billion.

CONCLUSION

Cardiovascular disease in Australia has substantial impacts in terms of morbidity, mortality, and lost revenue to the healthcare system and the society. Our modelling provides important information for decision making in relation to the future burden of cardiovascular disease.

South African guidelines on the determination of death

Summary

Death is a medical occurrence that has social, legal, religious and cultural consequences requiring common clinical standards for its diagnosis and legal regulation. This document compiled by the Critical Care Society of Southern Africa outlines the core standards for determination of death in the hospital context. It aligns with the latest evidence-based research and international guidelines and is applicable to the South African context and legal system. The aim is to provide clear medical standards for healthcare providers to follow in the determination of death, thereby promoting safe practices and high-quality care through the use of uniform standards. Adherence to such guidelines will provide assurance to medical staff, patients, their families and the South African public that the determination of death is always undertaken with diligence, integrity, respect and compassion, and is in accordance with accepted medical standards and latest scientific evidence. The consensus guidelines were compiled using the AGREE II checklist with an 18-member expert panel participating in a three-round modified Delphi process. Checklists and advice sheets were created to assist with application of these guidelines in the clinical environment (https://criticalcare.org.za/resource/death-determination-checklists/).

Key points

Brain death and circulatory death are the accepted terms for defining death in the hospital context.

Death determination is a clinical diagnosis which can be made with complete certainty provided that all preconditions are met.

The determination of death in children is held to the same standard as in adults but cannot be diagnosed in children <36 weeks’ corrected gestation.

Brain-death testing while on extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation is outlined.

Recommendations are given on handling family requests for accommodation and on consideration of the potential for organ donation.

The use of a checklist combined with a rigorous testing process, comprehensive documentation and adequate counselling of the family are core tenets of death determination. This is a standard of practice to which all clinicians should adhere in end-of-life care.

South African guidelines on the determination of death

Death is a medical occurrence that has social, legal, religious and cultural consequences requiring common clinical standards for its diagnosis and legal regulation. This document compiled by the Critical Care Society of Southern Africa outlines the core standards for determination of death in the hospital context. It aligns with the latest evidence-based research and international guidelines and is applicable to the South African context and legal system. The aim is to provide clear medical standards for healthcare providers to follow in the determination of death, thereby promoting safe practices and high-quality care through the use of uniform standards. Adherence to such guidelines will provide assurance to medical staff, patients, their families and the South African public that the determination of death is always undertaken with diligence, integrity, respect and compassion, and is in accordance with accepted medical standards and latest scientific evidence. The consensus guidelines were compiled using the AGREE II checklist with an 18-member expert panel participating in a three-round modified Delphi process. Checklists and advice sheets were created to assist with application of these guidelines in the clinical environment (https://criticalcare.org.za/resource/death-determination-checklists/). Key points • Brain death and circulatory death are the accepted terms for defining death in the hospital context. • Death determination is a clinical diagnosis which can be made with complete certainty provided that all preconditions are met. • The determination of death in children is held to the same standard as in adults but cannot be diagnosed in children <36 weeks' corrected gestation. • Brain-death testing while on extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation is outlined. • Recommendations are given on handling family requests for accommodation and on consideration of the potential for organ donation. • The use of a checklist combined with a rigorous testing process, comprehensive documentation and adequate counselling of the family are core tenets of death determination. This is a standard of practice to which all clinicians should adhere in end-of-life care.

Numerical prediction of the ballistic performance of hygrothermally aged CFRP laminates using a multi-scale modelling approach

A multi-scale modelling strategy is proposed to investigate the potential effects of hygrothermal ageing on the ballistic performance of CFRP laminates. At the micro-scale, damage evolution due to cyclic hygrothermal loads is simulated on a representative microstructure using an adapted fatigue damage law. Then, the results of the micro-mechanical analysis are used to measure the predicted transverse crack density and calibrate a meso-scale material model with the effects of micro-scale damage. Finally, a meso-scale impact model is generated with seeded transverse cracks at the predicted crack density and the calibrated material properties from the homogenisation step, which allows for the performance of the laminate to be compared at different stages of hygrothermal ageing damage.