Rare and severe adverse events in children with inflammatory bowel disease: analysis of data from the PIBD-SETQuality Safety Registry

BACKGROUND

Rare and severe adverse events can occur in children with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), and the relationship with disease or drug treatment is often uncertain. We aimed to establish a method of reporting adverse events of interest in children with IBD, allowing for estimates of incidence rates with comparison between different regions, and, if possible, to compare with published data on rates of adverse events in children overall.

METHODS

For this analysis, we used data from the Paediatric Inflammatory Bowel Disease Network for Safety, Efficacy and Treatment and Quality improvement of care (PIBD-SETQuality) Safety Registry, which collects data on multiple rare and severe adverse events in children younger than 19 years with IBD. Overall, the registry collected data on ten prespecified rare and severe adverse events in children with IBD, as established by a panel of paediatric IBD experts, via reports from paediatric gastroenterologists at participating hospitals between Nov 1, 2016, and March 31, 2023. Reporting physicians, who could only be paediatric gastroenterologists or IBD nurses reporting on behalf of paediatric gastroenterologists, were recruited through invitations sent to both national and international IBD networks and at conferences. Once per month, participating paediatric gastroenterologists received an email with an anonymous and unique link to an online survey asking them to report whether any of ten rare and severe adverse events had occurred in a patient in their paediatric-IBD population in the previous month. Prevalent or retrospective rare and severe adverse events were excluded, as were events occurring in children with an unconfirmed diagnosis of IBD or for whom inflammatory colitis was part of a monogenic immunodeficiency disorder. Duplicates and events that did not meet the definitions and criteria were excluded. Physicians could also report other, non-categorised adverse events if they considered them rare and severe. In case of no response, up to two reminders were sent for each per-month survey. Annual denominator data surveys were sent to obtain the total number of person-years for the estimation of incidence rates, which were calculated via Poisson regression models.

FINDINGS

Responses were gathered from 220 paediatric gastroenterologists from 167 centres. 121 centres were in Europe, 23 centres were in North America, 17 centres were in Asia, and six centres were in Oceania. Combined, the total population with paediatric IBD consisted of an estimated 30 193 children with 114 528 person-years of follow-up. 451 adverse events were initially reported. After excluding and reorganising adverse events, 402 were eligible; 261 (65%) were categorised and 141 (35%) were non-categorised. The most frequently reported adverse events were venous-thromboembolic events (n=66), renal failure (n=43), opportunistic infections (n=42), and cancer (n=33). Haemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (n=4) and liver failure (n=3) were the least frequently reported adverse events. Incidence rates per 10 000 person-years were 5·50 (95% CI 4·25-6·97) for venous-thromboembolic events, 3·75 (2·74-4·99) for renal failure, 3·67 (2·67-4·89) for opportunistic infection, and 2·88 (2·01-3·98) for cancer. Of 66 venous-thromboembolic events, 31 (47%) involved cerebral venous sinus thrombosis at an incidence rate of 2·71 (95% CI 1·86-3·77).

INTERPRETATION

The PIBD-SETQuality Safety Registry enabled us to identify incidence rates of rare and severe adverse events in children with IBD. Our findings can guide physicians and enhance awareness of the incidence of adverse events in children with IBD that are considered to be rare.

FUNDING

EU Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme.

Randomised clinical trial: First-line infliximab biosimilar is cost-effective compared to conventional treatment in paediatric Crohn's disease

BACKGROUND

Data on cost-effectiveness of first-line infliximab in paediatric patients with Crohn's disease are limited. Since biologics are increasingly prescribed and accompanied by high costs, this knowledge gap needs to be addressed.

AIM

To investigate the cost-effectiveness of first-line infliximab compared to conventional treatment in children with moderate-to-severe Crohn's disease.

METHODS

We included patients from the Top-down Infliximab Study in Kids with Crohn's disease randomised controlled trial. Children with newly diagnosed moderate-to-severe Crohn's disease were treated with azathioprine maintenance and either five induction infliximab (biosimilar) infusions or conventional induction treatment (exclusive enteral nutrition or corticosteroids). Direct healthcare consumption and costs were obtained per patient until week 104. This included data on outpatient hospital visits, hospital admissions, drug costs, endoscopies and surgeries. The primary health outcome was the odds ratio of being in clinical remission (weighted paediatric Crohn's disease activity index<12.5) during 104 weeks.

RESULTS

We included 89 patients (44 in the first-line infliximab group and 45 in the conventional treatment group). Mean direct healthcare costs per patient were €36,784 for first-line infliximab treatment and €36,874 for conventional treatment over 2 years (p = 0.981). The odds ratio of first-line infliximab versus conventional treatment to be in clinical remission over 104 weeks was 1.56 (95%CI 1.03-2.35, p = 0.036).

CONCLUSIONS

First-line infliximab treatment resulted in higher odds of being in clinical remission without being more expensive, making it the dominant strategy over conventional treatment in the first 2 years after diagnosis in children with moderate-to-severe Crohn's disease.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT02517684.

Biomarkers predicting the effect of anti-TNF treatment in paediatric and adult inflammatory bowel disease

OBJECTIVES

Paediatric and adult inflammatory bowel disease (pIBD, aIBD) patients may lose response to anti-TNF treatment within the first year. Adult-extrapolated weight-based dosing is incorrect in children, due to age-related pharmacokinetic differences. We investigated biomarkers for initial and maintenance of response to infliximab (IFX) or adalimumab (ADA), comparing pIBD and aIBD patients.

METHODS

In this prospective, observational study, pIBD (n = 24) and aIBD (n = 21) patients were included when initiating anti-TNF. Escalation from standard dosing and continued anti-TNF at 12 and 18 months were assessed. Biomarkers included clinical laboratory parameters, faecal calprotectin (FCP) and IFX trough levels (TLs). Plasma proteomics was performed in pIBD.

RESULTS

During our study, treatment escalation (in clinical loss of response) occurred more common in pIBD versus aIBD (p = 0.02). We established that IFX therapy escalation in pIBD patients was not due to low infliximab levels. We identified 9 pro-inflammatory proteins that were elevated in patients losing response.

CONCLUSION

Anti-TNF exposure-response relationship may be different in pIBD versus aIBD. No biomarkers for maintained response were identified, but 9 inflammatory proteins were of interest as potential predictors for loss of response in pIBD.

Using joint models for longitudinal and time-to-event data to investigate the causal effect of salvage therapy after prostatectomy

Prostate cancer patients who undergo prostatectomy are closely monitored for recurrence and metastasis using routine prostate-specific antigen measurements. When prostate-specific antigen levels rise, salvage therapies are recommended in order to decrease the risk of metastasis. However, due to the side effects of these therapies and to avoid over-treatment, it is important to understand which patients and when to initiate these salvage therapies. In this work, we use the University of Michigan Prostatectomy Registry Data to tackle this question. Due to the observational nature of this data, we face the challenge that prostate-specific antigen is simultaneously a time-varying confounder and an intermediate variable for salvage therapy. We define different causal salvage therapy effects defined conditionally on different specifications of the longitudinal prostate-specific antigen history. We then illustrate how these effects can be estimated using the framework of joint models for longitudinal and time-to-event data. All proposed methodology is implemented in the freely-available R package JMbayes2.

Establishing how much improvement in lung function and distance walked is clinically important for adult patients with Pompe disease

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Pompe disease is a rare, inheritable, progressive metabolic myopathy. This study aimed to estimate the minimal clinically important difference (MCID) for an improvement in forced vital capacity in the upright seated position (FVCup) and the 6-min walk test (6MWT) after a year of treatment with enzyme replacement therapy.

METHODS

Data were obtained from two prospective follow-up studies. Between-group and within-group MCIDs were estimated using anchor-based methods. Additionally, a distribution-based method was used to generate supportive evidence. As anchors, self-reported change in health and in physical functioning, shortness of breath and a categorization of the Short-Form 36 Physical Component Summary score were used. Anchor appropriateness was assessed using Spearman correlations (absolute values ≥0.29) and a sufficient number of observations in each category.

RESULTS

In all, 102 patients had at least one FVCup or 6MWT measurement during enzyme replacement therapy. Based on the anchors assessed as appropriate, the between-group MCID for an improvement in FVCup ranged from 2.47% to 4.83% points. For the 6MWT, it ranged from 0.35% to 7.47% points which is equivalent to a distance of 2.18-46.61 m and 1.97-42.13 m for, respectively, a man and a woman of age 50, height 1.75 m and weight 80 kg. The results of the distribution-based method were within these ranges when applied to change in the outcome values.

CONCLUSION

The MCIDs for FVCup and 6MWT derived in this study can be used to interpret differences between and within groups of patients with Pompe disease in clinical trials and cohort studies.

The plasma proteome is linked with left ventricular and left atrial function parameters in patients with chronic heart failure

BACKGROUND

Examining the systemic biological processes in the heterogeneous syndrome of heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), as reflected by circulating proteins, in relation to echocardiographic characteristics, may provide insights into HF pathophysiology.

OBJECTIVE

We investigated the link of 4210 repeatedly measured circulating proteins with repeatedly measured echocardiographic parameters, as well as with elevated left atrial pressure (LAP), in HFrEF patients, to provide insights into underlying mechanisms.

METHODS

In 173 HFrEF patients, we performed six-monthly echocardiography and trimonthly blood sampling during a median follow-up of 2.7(IQR:2.5-2.8) years. We investigated circulating proteins in relation to echocardiographic parameters of left ventricular (left ventricular ejection fraction[LVEF], global longitudinal strain[GLS]), and left atrial function (left atrial reservoir strain[LASr]) and elevated LAP(E/e' ratio >15), and used gene enrichment analyses to identify underlying pathophysiological processes.

RESULTS

We found 723, 249, 792 and 427 repeatedly measured proteins, with significant associations with LVEF, GLS, LASr and E/e' ratio, respectively. Proteins associated with LASr reflected pathophysiological mechanisms mostly related to the extracellular matrix (ECM). Proteins associated with GLS reflected cardiovascular biological processes and diseases, whereas those associated with LVEF reflected processes involved in the sympathetic nervous system. Moreover, 49 proteins were associated with elevated LAP; after correction for LVEF, three proteins remained: Cystatin-D, Fibulin-5 and HSP40.

CONCLUSION

Circulating proteins show varying associations with different echocardiographic parameters in HFrEF patients. These findings suggest that pathways involved in atrial and ventricular dysfunction, as reflected by the plasma proteome, are distinct.

Long term survival in patients with classic infantile Pompe disease reveals a spectrum with progressive brain abnormalities and changes in cognitive functioning

The aim of this longitudinal cohort study, is to provide more insight into the pattern of brain abnormalities, and possible consequences for cognitive functioning, in patients with classic infantile Pompe disease. We included 19 classic infantile Pompe patients (median age last assessment 8.9 years, range 1.5-22.5 years; 5/19 CRIM negative), treated with ERT. Using MR imaging of the brain (T1, T2, and FLAIR acquisitions), we classified progression of brain abnormalities on a 12-point rating scale at multiple time points throughout follow-up. Additionally we noted specific white matter patterns and examined atrophy. Cognitive development was studied using Wechsler IQ assessments obtained by certified neuropsychologists. The association between age and cognitive functioning, and MRI ratings and cognitive functioning was assessed by linear regression models. All but one patient developed brain abnormalities. The abnormalities progressed in a similar pattern throughout the brain, with early involvement of periventricular white matter, later followed by subcortical white matter, gray matter structures, and juxtacortical U-fibers. We found a significant decline (p < 0.01), with increasing age for full scale IQ, performance IQ and processing speed, but not for verbal IQ (p = 0.17). Each point increment in the 12-point MRI rating scale was associated with a significant decline (3.1-6.0 points) in all the IQ index scores (p < 0.05). The majority of long-term surviving patients in our cohort develop incremental brain MRI abnormalities and decline in cognitive functioning. This highlights the need for new therapies that can cross the blood-brain barrier in order to treat this CNS phenotype.

Optimizing dynamic predictions from joint models using super learning

Joint models for longitudinal and time-to-event data are often employed to calculate dynamic individualized predictions used in numerous applications of precision medicine. Two components of joint models that influence the accuracy of these predictions are the shape of the longitudinal trajectories and the functional form linking the longitudinal outcome history to the hazard of the event. Finding a single well-specified model that produces accurate predictions for all subjects and follow-up times can be challenging, especially when considering multiple longitudinal outcomes. In this work, we use the concept of super learning and avoid selecting a single model. In particular, we specify a weighted combination of the dynamic predictions calculated from a library of joint models with different specifications. The weights are selected to optimize a predictive accuracy metric using V-fold cross-validation. We use as predictive accuracy measures the expected quadratic prediction error and the expected predictive cross-entropy. In a simulation study, we found that the super learning approach produces results very similar to the Oracle model, which was the model with the best performance in the test datasets. All proposed methodology is implemented in the freely available R package JMbayes2.

An illness-death multistate model to implement delta adjustment and reference-based imputation with time-to-event endpoints

With a treatment policy strategy, therapies are evaluated regardless of the disturbance caused by intercurrent events (ICEs). Implementing this estimand is challenging if subjects are not followed up after the ICE. This circumstance can be dealt with using delta adjustment (DA) or reference-based (RB) imputation. In the survival field, DA and RB imputation have been researched so far using multiple imputation (MI). Here, we present a fully analytical solution. We use the illness-death multistate model with the following transitions: (a) from the initial state to the event of interest, (b) from the initial state to the ICE, and (c) from the ICE to the event. We estimate the intensity function of transitions (a) and (b) using flexible parametric survival models. Transition (c) is assumed unobserved but identifiable using DA or RB imputation assumptions. Various rules have been considered: no ICE effect, DA under proportional hazards (PH) or additive hazards (AH), jump to reference (J2R), and (either PH or AH) copy increment from reference. We obtain the marginal survival curve of interest by calculating, via numerical integration, the probability of transitioning from the initial state to the event of interest regardless of having passed or not by the ICE state. We use the delta method to obtain standard errors (SEs). Finally, we quantify the performance of the proposed estimator through simulations and compare it against MI. Our analytical solution is more efficient than MI and avoids SE misestimation-a known phenomenon associated with Rubin's variance equation.

Exploring the relation of active surveillance schedules and prostate cancer mortality

BACKGROUND

Active surveillance (AS), where treatment is deferred until cancer progression is detected by a biopsy, is acknowledged as a way to reduce overtreatment in prostate cancer. However, a consensus on the frequency of taking biopsies while in AS is lacking. In former studies to optimize biopsy schedules, the delay in progression detection was taken as an evaluation indicator and believed to be associated with the long-term outcome, prostate cancer mortality. Nevertheless, this relation was never investigated in empirical data. Here, we use simulated data from a microsimulation model to fill this knowledge gap.

METHODS

In this study, the established MIcrosimulation SCreening Analysis model was extended with functionality to simulate the AS procedures. The biopsy sensitivity in the model was calibrated on the Canary Prostate Cancer Active Surveillance Study (PASS) data, and four (tri-yearly, bi-yearly, PASS, and yearly) AS programs were simulated. The relation between detection delay and prostate cancer mortality was investigated by Cox models.

RESULTS

The biopsy sensitivity of progression detection was found to be 50%. The Cox models show a positive relation between a longer detection delay and a higher risk of prostate cancer death. A 2-year delay resulted in a prostate cancer death risk of 2.46%-2.69% 5 years after progression detection and a 10-year risk of 5.75%-5.91%. A 4-year delay led to an approximately 8% greater 5-year risk and an approximately 25% greater 10-year risk.

CONCLUSION

The detection delay is confirmed as a surrogate for prostate cancer mortality. A cut-off for a "safe" detection delay could not be identified.

Sex-specific cardiovascular protein levels and their link with clinical outcome in heart failure

AIMS

This study aims to provide insight into sex-specific cardiovascular protein profiles and their associations with adverse outcomes, which may contribute to a better understanding of heart failure (HF) pathophysiology and the optimal use of circulating proteins for prognostication in women and men.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In 250 stable patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), we performed trimonthly blood sampling (median follow-up: 26 [17-30] months). We selected all baseline samples and two samples closest to the primary endpoint (PEP; composite of cardiovascular death, heart transplantation, left ventricular assist device implantation, and HF hospitalization) or one sample closest to censoring and applied the Olink Cardiovascular III panel. We used linear regression to study sex-based differences in baseline levels and joint models to study differences in the prognostic value of serially measured proteins. In 66 women and 184 men (mean age of 66 and 67 years, respectively), 21% and 28% reached the PEP, respectively. Mean baseline levels of fatty acid-binding protein 4, secretoglobin family 3A member 2, paraoxonase 3, and trefoil factor 3 were higher in women (Pinteraction : 0.001, 0.007, 0.018, and 0.049, respectively), while matrix metalloproteinase-3, interleukin 1 receptor-like 1, and myoglobin were higher in men (Pinteraction : <0.001, 0.001, and 0.049, respectively), independent of clinical characteristics. No significant differences between sexes were observed in the longitudinal associations of proteins with the PEP. Only peptidoglycan recognition protein 1 showed a suggestive interaction with sex for the primary outcome (Pinteraction  = 0.028), without multiple testing correction, and was more strongly associated with adverse outcome in women {hazard ratio [HR] 3.03 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.42 to 6.68], P = 0.008} compared with men [HR 1.18 (95% CI, 0.84 to 1.66), P = 0.347].

CONCLUSIONS

Although multiple cardiovascular-related proteins show sex differences at baseline, temporal associations with the adverse outcome do not differ between women and men with HFrEF.

Medical Imaging Decision And Support (MIDAS): Study protocol for a multi-centre cluster randomized trial evaluating the ESR iGuide

OBJECTIVES

Medical imaging plays an essential role in healthcare. As a diagnostic test, imaging is prone to substantial overuse and potential overdiagnosis, with dire consequences to patient outcomes and health care costs. Clinical decision support systems (CDSSs) were developed to guide referring physicians in making appropriate imaging decisions. This study will evaluate the effect of implementing a CDSS (ESR iGuide) with versus without active decision support in a physician order entry on the appropriate use of imaging tests and ordering behaviour.

METHODS

A protocol for a multi-center cluster-randomized trial with departments acting as clusters, combined with a before-after-revert design. Four university hospitals with eight participating departments each for a total of thirty-two clusters will be included in the study. All departments start in control condition with structured data entry of the clinical indication and tracking of the imaging exams requested. Initially, the CDSS is implemented and all physicians remain blinded to appropriateness scores based on the ESR imaging referral guidelines. After randomization, half of the clusters switch to the active intervention of decision support. Physicians in the active condition are made aware of the categorization of their requests as appropriate, under certain conditions appropriate, or inappropriate, and appropriate exams are suggested. Physicians may change their requests in response to feedback. In the revert condition, active decision support is removed to study the educational effect.

RESULTS/CONCLUSIONS

The main outcome is the proportion of inappropriate diagnostic imaging exams requested per cluster. Secondary outcomes are the absolute number of imaging exams, radiation from diagnostic imaging, and medical costs.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

Approval from the Medical Ethics Review Committee was obtained under protocol numbers 20-069 (Augsburg), B 238/21 (Kiel), 20-318 (Lübeck) and 2020-15,125 (Mainz). The trial is registered in the ClinicalTrials.gov register under registration number NCT05490290.

Machine learning-based biomarker profile derived from 4210 serially measured proteins predicts clinical outcome of patients with heart failure

Aims

Risk assessment tools are needed for timely identification of patients with heart failure (HF) with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) who are at high risk of adverse events. In this study, we aim to derive a small set out of 4210 repeatedly measured proteins, which, along with clinical characteristics and established biomarkers, carry optimal prognostic capacity for adverse events, in patients with HFrEF.

Methods and results

In 382 patients, we performed repeated blood sampling (median follow-up: 2.1 years) and applied an aptamer-based multiplex proteomic approach. We used machine learning to select the optimal set of predictors for the primary endpoint (PEP: composite of cardiovascular death, heart transplantation, left ventricular assist device implantation, and HF hospitalization). The association between repeated measures of selected proteins and PEP was investigated by multivariable joint models. Internal validation (cross-validated c-index) and external validation (Henry Ford HF PharmacoGenomic Registry cohort) were performed. Nine proteins were selected in addition to the MAGGIC risk score, N-terminal pro-hormone B-type natriuretic peptide, and troponin T: suppression of tumourigenicity 2, tryptophanyl-tRNA synthetase cytoplasmic, histone H2A Type 3, angiotensinogen, deltex-1, thrombospondin-4, ADAMTS-like protein 2, anthrax toxin receptor 1, and cathepsin D. N-terminal pro-hormone B-type natriuretic peptide and angiotensinogen showed the strongest associations [hazard ratio (95% confidence interval): 1.96 (1.17-3.40) and 0.66 (0.49-0.88), respectively]. The multivariable model yielded a c-index of 0.85 upon internal validation and c-indices up to 0.80 upon external validation. The c-index was higher than that of a model containing established risk factors (P = 0.021).

Conclusion

Nine serially measured proteins captured the most essential prognostic information for the occurrence of adverse events in patients with HFrEF, and provided incremental value for HF prognostication beyond established risk factors. These proteins could be used for dynamic, individual risk assessment in a prospective setting. These findings also illustrate the potential value of relatively 'novel' biomarkers for prognostication.

Clinical Trial Registration

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01851538?term=nCT01851538&draw=2&rank=1 24.

Gastrointestinal Biomarkers and Their Association with Feeding in the First Five Days of Pediatric Critical Illness

OBJECTIVES

Predicting the patients' tolerance to enteral nutrition (EN) would help clinicians optimize individual nutritional intake. This study investigated the course of several gastrointestinal (GI) biomarkers and their association with EN advancement (ENA) longitudinally during pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) admission.

METHODS

This is a secondary analysis of the Early versus Late Parenteral Nutrition in the Pediatric Intensive Care Unit randomized controlled trial. EN was started early and increased gradually. The cholecystokinin (CCK), leptin, glucagon, intestinal fatty acid-binding protein 2 (I-FABP2), and citrulline plasma concentrations were measured upon PICU admission, day 3 and day 5. ENA was defined as kcal EN provided as % of predicted resting energy expenditure. The course of the biomarkers and ENA was examined in patients with samples on all time points using Friedman and Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. The association of ENA with the biomarkers was examined using a 2-part mixed-effects model with data of the complete population, adjusted for possible confounders.

RESULTS

For 172 patients, median age 8.6 years (first quartile; third quartile: 4.2; 13.4), samples were available, of which 55 had samples on all time points. The median ENA was 0 (0; 0) on admission, 14.5 (0.0; 43.8) on day 3, and 28.0 (7.6; 94.8) on day 5. During PICU stay, CCK and I-FABP2 concentrations decreased significantly, whereas glucagon concentrations increased significantly, and leptin and citrulline remained stable. None of the biomarkers was longitudinally associated with ENA.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on the current evidence, CCK, leptin, glucagon, I-FABP2, and citrulline appear to have no added value in predicting ENA in the first 5 days of pediatric critical illness.

Improved clinical outcomes with early anti-tumour necrosis factor alpha therapy in children with newly diagnosed Crohn's disease: real world data from the international prospective PIBD-SETQuality inception cohort study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Treatment guidelines for paediatric Crohn's disease (CD) suggest early use of anti-tumour necrosis factor alpha (anti-TNF) in high-risk individuals. The aim is to evaluate the effect of early anti-TNF in a real-world cohort.

METHODS

Children with newly-diagnosed CD were prospectively recruited at 28 participating sites of the international observational PIBD-SETQuality study. Outcomes were compared at 3 months, 1 and 2 years between patients receiving early anti-TNF (<90 days after diagnosis) and those not receiving early anti-TNF. Outcomes included sustained steroid-free remission (SSFR) without treatment intensification (specified as SSFR*) and sustained steroid-free mild/inactive disease without treatment intensification (specified as SSFMI*). Penalised logistic regression model-based standardisation was applied to estimate the relative risks (RR) of early therapy on outcomes. RRs were estimated for high-risk and low-risk patients based on presence of predictors of poor outcome (POPOs) and disease activity at diagnosis.

RESULTS

In total, 331 children (median age 13.9 years [IQR 12.2 - 15.3]) were enrolled, with 135 (41%) receiving early anti-TNF. At 1 year, patients on early anti-TNF had higher rates of SSFR* (30% vs. 14%, p<0.001) and SSFMI* (69% vs. 33%, p<0.001), with RRs of 2.95 (95%CI 1.63-5.36) and 4.67 (95%CI 2.46-8.87) respectively. At 1 year, the RRs for SSFMI* were higher, and statistically significant in high-risk patients, i.e. those with moderate/severe disease compared to mild/inactive disease at diagnosis (5.50 [95%CI 2.51-12.05]) vs. 2.91 [95%CI 0.92-9.11]), and those with any POPO compared to no POPO (5.05 [95%CI 2.45-10.43] vs. 3.41 [95%CI 0.54-21.7]).

CONCLUSION

In this cohort of children with newly-diagnosed CD, early anti-TNF demonstrated superior effectiveness in high-risk patients.

Heart Rate Variability and Incident Type 2 Diabetes in General Population

CONTEXT

Hyperglycemia and autonomic dysfunction are bidirectionally related.

OBJECTIVE

We investigated the association of longitudinal evolution of heart rate variability (HRV) with incident type 2 diabetes (T2D) among the general population.

METHODS

We included 7630 participants (mean age 63.7 years, 58% women) from the population-based Rotterdam Study who had no history of T2D and atrial fibrillation at baseline and had repeated HRV assessments at baseline and during follow-up. We used joint models to assess the association between longitudinal evolution of heart rate and different HRV metrics (including the heart rate-corrected SD of the normal-to-normal RR intervals [SDNNc], and root mean square of successive RR-interval differences [RMSSDc]) with incident T2D. Models were adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors. Bidirectional Mendelian randomization (MR) using summary-level data was also performed.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 8.6 years, 871 individuals developed incident T2D. One SD increase in heart rate (hazard ratio [HR] 1.20; 95% CI, 1.09-1.33), and log(RMSSDc) (HR 1.16; 95% CI, 1.01-1.33) were independently associated with incident T2D. The HRs were 1.54 (95% CI, 1.08-2.06) for participants younger than 62 years and 1.15 (95% CI, 1.01-1.31) for those older than 62 years for heart rate (P for interaction <.001). Results from bidirectional MR analyses suggested that HRV and T2D were not significantly related to each other.

CONCLUSION

Autonomic dysfunction precedes development of T2D, especially among younger individuals, while MR analysis suggests no causal relationship. More studies are needed to further validate our findings.

Validation and Reference Scores of the Transition Readiness Assessment Questionnaire in Adolescent and Young Adult IBD Patients

OBJECTIVES

Transition readiness can predict a successful transition from pediatric to adult care. This study aimed to validate and develop age-dependent reference scores for the (Dutch version of) Transition Readiness Assessment Questionnaire (TRAQ), in adolescents and young adults (AYAs) with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD).

METHODS

TRAQ has 20 items (score 1-5) distributed over 5 domains (total sum score 100) and is completed by AYAs. Following the COnsensus-based Standards for the selection of health Measurement INstruments methodology, we conducted the translation, back-to back translation, pretesting, and validation of the final Dutch version of TRAQ (TRAQ-NL) questionnaire. We used a Rasch model for structural validation, hypothesis testing for construct validity, and Cronbach alpha to demonstrate reliability. Reference scores were calculated using percentiles.

RESULTS

Two hundred fifty TRAQ questionnaires were evaluated in 136 AYAs with IBD [56% Crohn disease, 58% male, median age 17.5 years (range 15.7-20.4)]. The overall mean item score was 3.87 (range 1.45-5). With good reliability (Cronbach alpha 0.87), TRAQ-NL discriminated well between knowledge levels, especially in the lower levels. Transition readiness was defined as low, moderate, adequate, or excellent in patients with TRAQ percentile scores (PC) <25th (<3.375 mean item score), 25th-50th (3.375-3.9), 50th-90th (3.91-4.7), or >90th (>4.7). Younger patients, concomitant illness, fewer visits to the transition clinic, and parental dependence were associated with significantly lower TRAQ scores.

CONCLUSION

TRAQ(-NL) is reliable and valid, with age-dependent PC to identify (in)adequate transfer readiness. TRAQ can now be more easily used as a patient-reported outcome measure to monitor transition readiness longitudinally in routine care for AYAs IBD patients.

Intermittent feeding with an overnight fast versus 24-h feeding in critically ill neonates, infants, and children: An open-label, single-centre, randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Critically ill children are fed day and night, assuming this improves enteral tolerance and the probability of achieving nutritional goals. It was previously shown that a fasting response, reflected by increased ketosis, at least partly explained the beneficial outcome of delayed initiation of supplemental parenteral nutrition. This study aims to investigate whether an overnight fast increases ketosis and is feasible and safe in critically ill children.

METHODS

The Continuousversus Intermittent Nutrition in Paediatric Intensive Care (ContInNuPIC) study is a randomised controlled trial in a tertiary referral Paediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU) in the Netherlands. Critically ill children (term newborn-18 years) with an expected PICU stay ≥48 h, dependent on artificial nutrition, were eligible. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1, stratified for age group) to intermittent feeding, with interruption of feedings during an age-dependent overnight period of eight to 12 h, or to continuous feeding, with the administration of feedings day and night. In both groups, similar daily caloric targets were pursued. For children younger than one year, mandatory minor glucose infusions were provided during fasting. The primary outcome was the feasibility, defined as two conditions (1): a significant difference in the patients' highest daily ketone (3-β-hydroxybutyrate, BHB) levels during each overnight period, and (2): non-inferiority regarding daily caloric intake, examined using a two-part mixed-effects model with a predefined non-inferiority margin of 33%, in an intention-to-treat analysis. The study is registered in the Netherlands Trial Register (NL7877).

RESULTS

Between May 19, 2020, and July 13, 2022, 140 critically ill children, median (first quartile; third quartile) age 0.3 (0.1; 2.7) years, were randomised to intermittent (n = 67) or continuous feeding (n = 73). In the intermittent feeding group, BHB levels were significantly higher (median 0.4 (0.2; 1.0) vs. 0.3 (0.1; 0.7) mmol/L, p < 0.001). The ratio of total caloric intake in the intermittent feeding group to the intake in the continuous feeding group was not consistently significantly more than 0.67, thus not proving non-inferiority. No severe, resistant hypoglycaemic events, nor severe gastrointestinal complications related to the intervention occurred, and feeding intolerance did not occur more often in the intermittent than in the continuous feeding group.

CONCLUSION

Compared with day and night feeding, intermittent feeding with an overnight fast and mandatory glucose infusion for children younger than one year marginally increased ketosis and did not lead to more hypoglycaemic incidents in critically ill children. Because non-inferiority regarding daily caloric intake was not proven, the feasibility of an overnight fast could not be shown in the current study. However, as feeding intolerance did not increase during the condensed feeding periods, the nutritional intake was probably limited by the prescription of nutrition and interruptions. More research is needed to determine the optimal level and duration of clinically relevant ketosis and the best method to achieve this.

Neurofilament Light and Its Association With CNS Involvement in Patients With Classic Infantile Pompe Disease

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Enzyme replacement therapy (ERT) has substantially improved the outcome of classic infantile Pompe disease, an inheritable muscle disease previously fatal at infancy. However, under treatment, patients develop white matter abnormalities and neurocognitive problems. Therefore, upcoming therapies also target the brain. Currently, biomarkers reflecting CNS involvement are lacking. We aimed to study the association of neurofilament light (NfL) and CNS involvement.

METHODS

To investigate the potential of NfL, we analyzed serum samples of patients with classic infantile Pompe disease who were treated with ERT. The samples were collected at ages of <1, 5, and 10 years, as well as around MRI scans. We compared the outcomes with levels in age- and sex-matched peers. Control samples were originally collected as part of routine blood work in children who underwent small surgeries and stored in the biobank of the Erasmus MC/Sophia Children's Hospital.

RESULTS

We analyzed 74 serum samples of 17 patients collected at ages ranging from 22 days to 21.2 years (1-8 samples per patient) and compared these with outcomes of 71 matched peers. In the first year of age, NfL levels in patients and controls were similar (10.3 vs 11.0 pg/mL), but mixed linear model analysis showed a yearly increase of NfL of 6.0% in patients, compared with a decrease of 8.8% in controls (p < 0.001). Higher NfL was associated with lower IQ scores (p = 0.009) and lower processing speed scores (p = 0.001).

DISCUSSION

We found significant differences in NfL levels between patients and controls and a good association between NfL and cognition. NfL deserves further exploration as a biomarker for CNS involvement in patients with classic infantile Pompe disease.

Association of pre-radiotherapy tumour burden and overall survival in newly diagnosed glioblastoma adjusted for MGMT promoter methylation status

PURPOSE

We retrospectively evaluated the association between postoperative pre-radiotherapy tumour burden and overall survival (OS) adjusted for the prognostic value of O6-methylguanine DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) promoter methylation in patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma treated with radio-/chemotherapy with temozolomide.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patients were included from the CENTRIC (EORTC 26071-22072) and CORE trials if postoperative magnetic resonance imaging scans were available within a timeframe of up to 4weeks before radiotherapy, including both pre- and post-contrast T1w images and at least one T2w sequence (T2w or T2w-FLAIR). Postoperative (residual) pre-radiotherapy contrast-enhanced tumour (CET) volumes and non-enhanced T2w abnormalities (NT2A) tissue volumes were obtained by three-dimensional segmentation. Cox proportional hazard models and Kaplan Meier estimates were used to assess the association of pre-radiotherapy CET/NT2A volume with OS adjusted for known prognostic factors (age, performance status, MGMT status).

RESULTS

408 tumour (of which 270 MGMT methylated) segmentations were included. Median OS in patients with MGMT methylated tumours was 117 weeks versus 61weeks in MGMT unmethylated tumours (p < 0.001). When stratified for MGMT methylation status, higher CET volume (HR 1.020; 95% confidence interval CI [1.013-1.027]; p < 0.001) and older age (HR 1.664; 95% CI [1.214-2.281]; p = 0.002) were significantly associated with shorter OS while NT2A volume and performance status were not.

CONCLUSION

Pre-radiotherapy CET volume was strongly associated with OS in patients receiving radio-/chemotherapy for newly diagnosed glioblastoma stratified by MGMT promoter methylation status.

HFrEF subphenotypes based on 4210 repeatedly measured circulating proteins are driven by different biological mechanisms

BACKGROUND

HFrEF is a heterogenous condition with high mortality. We used serial assessments of 4210 circulating proteins to identify distinct novel protein-based HFrEF subphenotypes and to investigate underlying dynamic biological mechanisms. Herewith we aimed to gain pathophysiological insights and fuel opportunities for personalised treatment.

METHODS

In 382 patients, we performed trimonthly blood sampling during a median follow-up of 2.1 [IQR:1.1-2.6] years. We selected all baseline samples and two samples closest to the primary endpoint (PEP; composite of cardiovascular mortality, HF hospitalization, LVAD implantation, and heart transplantation) or censoring, and applied an aptamer-based multiplex proteomic approach. Using unsupervised machine learning methods, we derived clusters from 4210 repeatedly measured proteomic biomarkers. Sets of proteins that drove cluster allocation were analysed via an enrichment analysis. Differences in clinical characteristics and PEP occurrence were evaluated.

FINDINGS

We identified four subphenotypes with different protein profiles, prognosis and clinical characteristics, including age (median [IQR] for subphenotypes 1-4, respectively:70 [64, 76], 68 [60, 79], 57 [47, 65], 59 [56, 66]years), EF (30 [26, 36], 26 [20, 38], 26 [22, 32], 33 [28, 37]%), and chronic renal failure (45%, 65%, 36%, 37%). Subphenotype allocation was driven by subsets of proteins associated with various biological functions, such as oxidative stress, inflammation and extracellular matrix organisation. Clinical characteristics of the subphenotypes were aligned with these associations. Subphenotypes 2 and 3 had the worst prognosis compared to subphenotype 1 (adjHR (95%CI):3.43 (1.76-6.69), and 2.88 (1.37-6.03), respectively).

INTERPRETATION

Four circulating-protein based subphenotypes are present in HFrEF, which are driven by varying combinations of protein subsets, and have different clinical characteristics and prognosis.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01851538https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01851538.

FUNDING

EU/EFPIA IMI2JU BigData@Heart grant n°116074, Jaap Schouten Foundation and Noordwest Academie.

Sex-based differences in cardiovascular proteomic profiles and their associations with adverse outcomes in patients with chronic heart failure

BACKGROUND

Studies focusing on sex differences in circulating proteins in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) are scarce. Insight into sex-specific cardiovascular protein profiles and their associations with the risk of adverse outcomes may contribute to a better understanding of the pathophysiological processes involved in HFrEF. Moreover, it could provide a basis for the use of circulating protein measurements for prognostication in women and men, wherein the most relevant protein measurements are applied in each of the sexes.

METHODS

In 382 patients with HFrEF, we performed tri-monthly blood sampling (median follow-up: 25 [13-31] months). We selected all baseline samples and two samples closest to the primary endpoint (PEP: composite of cardiovascular death, heart transplantation, left ventricular assist device implantation, and HF hospitalization) or censoring. We then applied an aptamer-based multiplex proteomic assay identifying 1105 proteins previously associated with cardiovascular disease. We used linear regression models and gene-enrichment analysis to study sex-based differences in baseline levels. We used time-dependent Cox models to study differences in the prognostic value of serially measured proteins. All models were adjusted for the MAGGIC HF mortality risk score and p-values for multiple testing.

RESULTS

In 104 women and 278 men (mean age 62 and 64 years, respectively) cumulative PEP incidence at 30 months was 25% and 35%, respectively. At baseline, 55 (5%) out of the 1105 proteins were significantly different between women and men. The female protein profile was most strongly associated with extracellular matrix organization, while the male profile was dominated by regulation of cell death. The association of endothelin-1 (P_interaction < 0.001) and somatostatin (P_interaction = 0.040) with the PEP was modified by sex, independent of clinical characteristics. Endothelin-1 was more strongly associated with the PEP in men (HR 2.62 [95%CI, 1.98, 3.46], p < 0.001) compared to women (1.14 [1.01, 1.29], p = 0.036). Somatostatin was positively associated with the PEP in men (1.23 [1.10, 1.38], p < 0.001), but inversely associated in women (0.33 [0.12, 0.93], p = 0.036).

CONCLUSION

Baseline cardiovascular protein levels differ between women and men. However, the predictive value of repeatedly measured circulating proteins does not seem to differ except for endothelin-1 and somatostatin.

Association between changes in pulmonary function and in patient reported outcomes during enzyme therapy of adult patients with late-onset Pompe disease

Pompe disease is a rare, progressive, and metabolic myopathy. Reduced pulmonary function is one of the main problems seen in adult patients with late-onset Pompe disease (LOPD). We aimed to explore the association between changes over time in pulmonary function and in patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs), in these patients treated with enzyme replacement therapy (ERT). This is a post hoc analysis of two cohort studies. Pulmonary function was assessed as forced vital capacity in the upright position (FVC_up ). As PROMs, we assessed the physical component summary score (PCS) of the Medical Outcome Study 36-item Short-Form Health Survey (SF-36) and daily life activities (Rasch-Built Pompe-Specific Activity [R-PACT] scale). We fitted Bayesian multivariate mixed-effects models. In the models of PROMs, we assumed a linear association with FVC_up , and adjusted for time (nonlinear), sex, and age and disease duration at the start of ERT. One hundred and one patients were eligible for analysis. PCS and R-PAct were positively associated with FVC_up , while their relation with time was nonlinear (initial increase then decrease). A 1%-point increase in FVC_up is expected to increase PCS by 0.14 points (95% Credible Interval: [0.09;0.19]) and R-PACT by 0.41 points [0.33;0.49] at the same time point. In the first year of ERT, we expect a change of PCS and R-PAct scores by +0.42 and +0.80 points, and in the 5th year of +0.16 and +0.45, respectively. We conclude that the physical domain of quality of life and daily life activities improve when FVC_up increases during ERT.

The importance of clinicians' and parents' awareness of suicidal behaviour in adolescents reaching the upper age limit of their mental health services in Europe

BACKGROUND

To study clinicians' and parents' awareness of suicidal behaviour in adolescents reaching the upper age limit of their Child and Adolescent Mental Health Service (CAMHS) and its association with mental health indicators, transition recommendations and mental health service (MHS) use.

METHODS

763 CAMHS users from eight European countries were assessed using multi-informant and standardised assessment tools at baseline and nine months follow-up. Separate ANCOVA's and pairwise comparisons were conducted to assess whether clinicians' and parents' awareness of young people's suicidal behaviour were associated with mental health indicators, clinician's recommendations to continue treatment and MHS use at nine months follow-up.

RESULTS

53.5 % of clinicians and 56.9 % of parents were unaware of young people's self-reported suicidal behaviour at baseline. Compared to those whose clinicians/parents were aware, unawareness was associated with a 72-80 % lower proportion of being recommended to continue treatment. Self-reported mental health problems at baseline were comparable for young people whose clinicians and parents were aware and unaware of suicidal behaviour. Clinicians' and parents' unawareness were not associated with MHS use at follow-up.

LIMITATIONS

Aspects of suicidal behaviour, such as suicide ideation, -plans and -attempts, could not be distinguished. Few young people transitioned to Adult Mental Health Services (AMHS), therefore power to study factors associated with AMHS use was limited.

CONCLUSION

Clinicians and parents are often unaware of suicidal behaviour, which decreases the likelihood of a recommendation to continue treatment, but does not seem to affect young people's MHS use or their mental health problems.

Longitudinal Patient-Reported Voice Quality in Early-Stage Glottic Cancer

OBJECTIVE

Patient-reported voice quality is an important outcome during counseling in early-stage glottic cancer. However, there is a paucity of adequate longitudinal studies concerning voice outcomes. This study aimed to investigate longitudinal trajectories for patient-reported voice quality and associated risk factors for treatment modalities such as transoral CO₂ laser microsurgery, single vocal cord irradiation, and local radiotherapy.

STUDY DESIGN

A longitudinal observational cohort study.

SETTING

Tertiary cancer center.

METHODS

Patients treated for Tcis-T1b, N0M0 glottic cancer were included in this study (N = 294). The Voice Handicap Index was obtained at baseline and during follow-up (N = 1944). Mixed-effects models were used for investigating the different trajectories for patient-reported voice quality.

RESULTS

The mean follow-up duration was 43.4 (SD 21.5) months. Patients received transoral CO₂ laser microsurgery (57.8%), single vocal cord irradiation (24.5%), or local radiotherapy (17.5%). A steeper improvement during the first year after treatment for single vocal cord irradiation (-15.7) and local radiotherapy (-12.4) was seen, compared with a more stable trajectory for laser surgery (-6.1). All treatment modalities showed equivalent outcomes during long-term follow-up. Associated risk factors for different longitudinal trajectories were age, tumor stage, and comorbidity.

CONCLUSION

Longitudinal patient-reported voice quality after treatment for early-stage glottic cancer is heterogeneous and nonlinear. Most improvement is seen during the first year of follow-up and differs between treatment modalities. No clinically significant differences in long-term trajectories were found. Insight into longitudinal trajectories can enhance individual patient counseling and provide the foundation for an individualized dynamic prediction model.

Sample size calculation for clinical trials analyzed with the meta-analytic-predictive approach

The meta-analytic-predictive (MAP) approach is a Bayesian method to incorporate historical controls in new trials that aims to increase the statistical power and reduce the required sample size. Here we investigate how to calculate the sample size of the new trial when historical data is available, and the MAP approach is used in the analysis. In previous applications of the MAP approach, the prior effective sample size (ESS) acted as a metric to quantify the number of subjects the historical information is worth. However, the validity of using the prior ESS in sample size calculation (i.e., reducing the number of randomized controls by the derived prior ESS) is questionable, because different approaches may yield different values for prior ESS. In this work, we propose a straightforward Monte Carlo approach to calculate the sample size that achieves the desired power in the new trial given available historical controls. To make full use of the available historical information to simulate the new trial data, the control parameters are not taken as a point estimate but sampled from the MAP prior. These sampled control parameters and the MAP prior based on the historical data are then used to derive the statistical power for the treatment effect and the resulting required sample size. The proposed sample size calculation approach is illustrated with real-life data sets with different outcomes from three studies. The results show that this approach to calculating the required sample size for the MAP analysis is straightforward and generic.

Diffusion tensor imaging of the brain in Pompe disease

Enzyme replacement therapy has drastically changed prospects of patients with Pompe disease, a progressive metabolic myopathy. As classic infantile patients survive due to treatment, they exhibit progressive white matter abnormalities, while brain involvement in late-onset patients is not fully elucidated. To study the underlying microstructure of white matter, we acquired structural (T1, T2, FLAIR) and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) of the brain in 12 classic infantile patients (age 5-20 years) and 18 late-onset Pompe patients (age 11-56 years). Structural images were scored according to a rating scale for classic infantile patients. Fractional anisotropy (FA) and mean diffusivity (MD) from classic infantile patients were compared to a reference population, using a Wilcoxon signed-rank, one sample test. Effect sizes (Hedges' G) were used to compare DTI metrics across different tracts. For late-onset patients, results were compared to (reported) tractography data on normal aging. In classic infantile patients, we found a significant lower FA and higher MD (p < 0.01) compared to the reference population. Large-association fibers were most severely affected. Classic infantile patients with advanced white matter abnormalities on structural MRI showed the largest deviations from the reference population. FA and MD were similar for younger and older late-onset patients in large WM-association fibers. We conclude that, while no deviations from typical neurodevelopment were found in late-onset patients, classic infantile Pompe patients showed quantifiable, substantially altered white matter microstructure, which corresponded with disease stage on structural MRI. DTI holds promise to monitor therapy response in future therapies targeting the brain.

Clinical consequences of nonadherence to Barrett's esophagus surveillance recommendations: a Multicenter prospective cohort study

Half of Barrett's esophagus (BE) surveillance endoscopies do not adhere to guideline recommendations. In this multicenter prospective cohort study, we assessed the clinical consequences of nonadherence to recommended surveillance intervals and biopsy protocol. Data from BE surveillance patients were collected from endoscopy and pathology reports; questionnaires were distributed among endoscopists. We estimated the association between (non)adherence and (i) endoscopic curability of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), (ii) mortality, and (iii) misclassification of histological diagnosis according to a multistate hidden Markov model. Potential explanatory parameters (patient, facility, endoscopist variables) for nonadherence, related to clinical impact, were analyzed. In 726 BE patients, 3802 endoscopies were performed by 167 endoscopists. Adherence to surveillance interval was 16% for non-dysplastic (ND)BE, 55% for low-grade dysplasia (LGD), and 54% of endoscopies followed the Seattle protocol. There was no evidence to support the following statements: longer surveillance intervals or fewer biopsies than recommended affect endoscopic curability of EAC or cause-specific mortality (P > 0.20); insufficient biopsies affect the probability of NDBE (OR 1.0) or LGD (OR 2.3) being misclassified as high-grade dysplasia/EAC (P > 0.05). Better adherence was associated with older patients (OR 1.1), BE segments ≤ 2 cm (OR 8.3), visible abnormalities (OR 1.8, all P ≤ 0.05), endoscopists with a subspecialty (OR 3.2), and endoscopists who deemed histological diagnosis an adequate marker (OR 2.0). Clinical consequences of nonadherence to guidelines appeared to be limited with respect to endoscopic curability of EAC and mortality. This indicates that BE surveillance recommendations should be optimized to minimize the burden of endoscopies.

Using joint models to study the association between CD4 count and the risk of death in TB/HIV data

Background

The association structure linking the longitudinal and survival sub-models is of fundamental importance in the joint modeling framework and the choice of this structure should be made based on the clinical background of the study. However, this information may not always be accessible and rationale for selecting this association structure has received relatively little attention in the literature. To this end, we aim to explore four alternative functional forms of the association structure between the CD4 count and the risk of death and provide rationale for selecting the optimal association structure for our data. We also aim to compare the results obtained from the joint model to those obtained from the time-varying Cox model.

Methods

We used data from the Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA) AIDS Treatment programme, the Starting Antiretroviral Therapy at Three Points in Tuberculosis (SAPiT) study, an open-label, three armed randomised, controlled trial between June 2005 and July 2010 (N=642). In our analysis, we combined the early and late integrated arms and compared results to the sequential arm. We utilized the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) to select the final model with the best structure, with smaller values indicating better model adjustments to the data.

Results

Patient characteristics were similar across the study arms. Combined integrated therapy arms had a reduction of 55% in mortality (HR:0.45, 95% CI:0.28-0.72) compared to the sequential therapy arm. The joint model with a cumulative effects functional form was chosen as the best association structure. In particular, our joint model found that the area under the longitudinal profile of CD4 count was strongly associated with a 21% reduction in mortality (HR:0.79, 95% CI:0.72-0.86). Where as results from the time-varying Cox model showed a 19% reduction in mortality (HR:0.81, 95% CI:0.77-0.84).

Conclusions

In this paper we have shown that the “current value” association structure is not always the best structure that expresses the correct relationship between the outcomes in all settings, which is why it is crucial to explore alternative clinically meaningful association structures that links the longitudinal and survival processes.

Incorporating historical control information in ANCOVA models using the meta-analytic-predictive approach

The meta-analytic-predictive (MAP) approach is a Bayesian meta-analytic method to synthesize and incorporate information from historical controls in the analysis of a new trial. Classically, only a single parameter, typically the intercept or rate, is assumed to vary across studies, which may not be realistic in more complex models. Analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) is often used to analyze trials with a pretest-posttest design, where both the intercept and the baseline effect (coefficient of the outcome at baseline) affect the estimated treatment effect. We extended the MAP approach to ANCOVA, to allow for variation in the intercept and the baseline effect across studies, and possibly also correlation between these parameters. The method was illustrated using data from the Alzheimer's Disease Cooperative Study (ADCS) and assessed with a simulation study. In the ADCS data, the proposed multivariate MAP approach yielded a prior effective sample size of 79 and 58 for the intercept and the baseline effect respectively and reduced the posterior standard deviation of the treatment effect by 12.6%. The result was robust to the choice of prior for the between-study variation. In the simulations, the proposed approach yielded power gains with a good control of the type I error rate. Ignoring the between-study correlation of the parameters or assuming no variation in the baseline effect generally led to less power gain. In conclusion, the MAP approach can be extended to a multivariate version for ANCOVA, which may improve the estimation of the treatment effect.

DEcrease STress through RESilience training for Students (DESTRESS) Study: Protocol for a randomized controlled trial nested in a longitudinal observational cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Chronic stress and burnout are highly prevalent among academically trained healthcare professionals, negatively affecting their well-being and capacity to engage in their work. Resilience to stress develops early in one's career path, hence offering resilience training to university students in these professions is one approach to fostering well-being and mental health. The aim of this study is to assess whether offering mindfulness-based resilience training to university students in healthcare professions reduces their perceived chronic stress.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The study has a hybrid design combining a longitudinal observational cohort with a nested randomized controlled trial (RCT) with sequential multiple assignment and multistage adaptive interventions while taking participants' preferences into account. All students in healthcare related programmes at the Erasmus University Rotterdam are invited to participate. Within the observational cohort, students with a score of 14 or higher on the Perceived Stress Scale (PSS) are invited to take part in the RCT (n = 706). Eligible participants are randomized to control or active intervention in a ratio of 1:6. Those randomized to the control group and non-randomized participants in the cohort receive passive web-based psychoeducation about chronic stress and burnout through referral to specific websites. Participants randomized to the intervention group receive one of 8 active mindfulness-based interventions. They select a rank order of 4 preferred interventions and are randomized across these with equal probability. Non-response to the intervention is followed by sequential randomized assignment to another intervention, for a total maximum of 3 sequential interventions. All participants receive questionnaires at baseline, before and after each 8-week intervention period, and at 1- and 2-year follow-up. The primary outcome is perceived chronic stress measured with the PSS. Secondary outcomes include mental well-being, burnout, quality of life, healthcare utilization, drug use, bodyweight, mental and physical stress-related symptoms, resilience, and study progress.

ETHICS AND REGISTRATION

Approval from the Medical Ethics Review Committee was obtained under protocol number MEC-2018-1645. The trial is registered in the Netherlands National Trial Register by registration number NL7623, 22/03/2019, https://www.trialregister.nl/.

Dynamic Digital Twin: Diagnosis, Treatment, Prediction, and Prevention of Disease During the Life Course

A digital twin (DT), originally defined as a virtual representation of a physical asset, system, or process, is a new concept in health care. A DT in health care is not a single technology but a domain-adapted multimodal modeling approach incorporating the acquisition, management, analysis, prediction, and interpretation of data, aiming to improve medical decision-making. However, there are many challenges and barriers that must be overcome before a DT can be used in health care. In this viewpoint paper, we build on the current literature, address these challenges, and describe a dynamic DT in health care for optimizing individual patient health care journeys, specifically for women at risk for cardiovascular complications in the preconception and pregnancy periods and across the life course. We describe how we can commit multiple domains to developing this DT. With our cross-domain definition of the DT, we aim to define future goals, trade-offs, and methods that will guide the development of the dynamic DT and implementation strategies in health care.

Longitudinal Anthropometric Measures and Risk of New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation Among Community-Dwelling Men and Women

OBJECTIVE

To assess the sex-specific evolution of various anthropometric measures and the association of their longitudinal trajectories with new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF).

METHODS

Among 5266 men and 7218 women free of AF at baseline from the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study, each anthropometric measure was measured 1 to 5 times from 1989 to 2014. Anthropometric measures were standardized to obtain hazard ratios per 1 SD increase to enable comparison. Joint models were used to assess the longitudinal association between anthropometric measures and incident AF. Use of the joint models is a preferred method for simultaneous analyses of repeated measurements and survival data for conferring less biased estimates.

RESULTS

Mean (SD) age was 63.9 (8.9) years for men and 64.9 (9.8) years for women. Median follow-up time was 10.5 years. Longitudinal evolution of weight, height, waist circumference, hip circumference, and body mass index was associated with an increased risk of new-onset AF in both men and women. In joint models, larger height in men (hazard ratio [95% credible interval] per 1 SD, 1.27 [1.17 to 1.38]) and weight in women (1.24 [1.16 to 1.34]) showed the largest associations with AF. In joint models, waist to hip ratio was significantly associated with incident AF only in women (1.10 [1.03 to 1.18]).

CONCLUSION

Considering the entire longitudinal trajectories in joint models, anthropometric measures were positively associated with an increased risk for new-onset AF among men and women in the general population. Increase in measure of central obesity showed a stronger association with increased risk of AF onset among women compared with men.

Joint Modeling of Repeated Measurements of Different Biomarkers Predicts Mortality in COVID-19 Patients in the Intensive Care Unit

Introduction:

Predicting disease severity is important for treatment decisions in patients with COVID-19 in the intensive care unit (ICU). Different biomarkers have been investigated in COVID-19 as predictor of mortality, including C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and soluble urokinase-type plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR). Using repeated measurements in a prediction model may result in a more accurate risk prediction than the use of single point measurements. The goal of this study is to investigate the predictive value of trends in repeated measurements of CRP, PCT, IL-6, and suPAR on mortality in patients admitted to the ICU with COVID-19.

Methods:

This was a retrospective single center cohort study. Patients were included if they tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by PCR test and if IL-6, PCT, suPAR was measured during any of the ICU admission days. There were no exclusion criteria for this study. We used joint models to predict ICU-mortality. This analysis was done using the framework of joint models for longitudinal and survival data. The reported hazard ratios express the relative change in the risk of death resulting from a doubling or 20% increase of the biomarker’s value in a day compared to no change in the same period.

Results:

A total of 107 patients were included, of which 26 died during ICU admission. Adjusted for sex and age, a doubling in the next day in either levels of PCT, IL-6, and suPAR were significantly predictive of in-hospital mortality with HRs of 1.523 (1.012-6.540), 75.25 (1.116-6247), and 24.45 (1.696-1057) respectively. With a 20% increase in biomarker value in a subsequent day, the HR of PCT, IL-6, and suPAR were 1.117 (1.03-1.639), 3.116 (1.029-9.963), and 2.319 (1.149-6.243) respectively.

Conclusion:

Joint models for the analysis of repeated measurements of PCT, suPAR, and IL-6 are a useful method for predicting mortality in COVID-19 patients in the ICU. Patients with an increasing trend of biomarker levels in consecutive days are at increased risk for mortality.

Sex Differences in Neoplastic Progression in Barrett’s Esophagus: A Multicenter Prospective Cohort Study

Simple Summary

Barrett’s esophagus (BE) is the only known precursor lesion of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). Endoscopic surveillance plays an important role in the timely detection of neoplastic progression. However, the cost-effectiveness of current surveillance strategies is debatable. Previous studies have shown that male Barrett’s patients have lower neoplastic progression risk than females. However, these studies do not provide a more practical translation of these sex disparities into different surveillance intervals. The current multicenter prospective cohort study aimed to evaluate sex differences in 868 BE patients; not only with respect to neoplastic progression risk, but also concerning the difference in time to detection of high-grade dysplasia (HGD)/EAC: time to neoplastic progression was estimated to be almost twice as low in males than in females. In contrast, the stage of neoplasia appeared to be higher in females. Our results can guide future discussions for sex-specific guidelines, supporting the implementation of neoplastic risk stratification per individual patient in BE surveillance.

Abstract

Recommendations in Barrett’s esophagus (BE) guidelines are mainly based on male patients. We aimed to evaluate sex differences in BE patients in (1) probability of and (2) time to neoplastic progression, and (3) differences in the stage distribution of neoplasia. We conducted a multicenter prospective cohort study including 868 BE patients. Cox regression modeling and accelerated failure time modeling were used to estimate the sex differences. Neoplastic progression was defined as high-grade dysplasia (HGD) and/or esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). Among the 639 (74%) males and 229 females that were included (median follow-up 7.1 years), 61 (7.0%) developed HGD/EAC. Neoplastic progression risk was estimated to be twice as high among males (HR 2.26, 95% CI 1.11–4.62) than females. The risk of HGD was found to be higher in males (HR 3.76, 95% CI 1.33–10.6). Time to HGD/EAC (AR 0.52, 95% CI 0.29–0.95) and HGD (AR 0.40, 95% CI 0.19–0.86) was shorter in males. Females had proportionally more EAC than HGD and tended to have higher stages of neoplasia at diagnosis. In conclusion, both the risk of and time to neoplastic progression were higher in males. However, females were proportionally more often diagnosed with (advanced) EAC. We should strive for improved neoplastic risk stratification per individual BE patient, incorporating sex disparities into new prediction models.

Heart failure subphenotypes based on repeated biomarker measurements are associated with clinical characteristics and adverse events (Bio-SHiFT study)

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to identify heart failure (HF) subphenotypes using 92 repeatedly measured circulating proteins in 250 patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, and to investigate their clinical characteristics and prognosis.

METHODS

Clinical data and blood samples were collected tri-monthly until the primary endpoint (PEP) or censoring occurred, with a maximum of 11 visits. The Olink Cardiovascular III panel was measured in baseline samples and the last two samples before the PEP (in 66 PEP cases), or the last sample before censoring (in 184 PEP-free patients). The PEP comprised cardiovascular death, heart transplantation, Left Ventricular Assist Device implantation, and hospitalization for HF. Cluster analysis was performed on individual biomarker trajectories to identify subphenotypes. Then biomarker profiles and clinical characteristics were investigated, and survival analysis was conducted.

RESULTS

Clustering revealed three clinically diverse subphenotypes. Cluster 3 was older, with a longer duration of, and more advanced HF, and most comorbidities. Cluster 2 showed increasing levels over time of most biomarkers. In cluster 3, there were elevated baseline levels and increasing levels over time of 16 remaining biomarkers. Median follow-up was 2.2 (1.4-2.5) years. Cluster 3 had a significantly poorer prognosis compared to cluster 1 (adjusted event-free survival time ratio 0.25 (95%CI:0.12-0.50), p < 0.001). Repeated measurements clusters showed incremental prognostic value compared to clusters using single measurements, or clinical characteristics only.

CONCLUSIONS

Clustering based on repeated biomarker measurements revealed three clinically diverse subphenotypes, of which one has a significantly worse prognosis, therefore contributing to improved (individualized) prognostication.

Vascular biomechanics and molecular disease activity in the thoracic aorta: a novel imaging method

AIMS

The influence haemodynamics have on vessel wall pathobiology in aortic disease is incomplete. This aim of this study was to develop a repeatable method for assessing the relationship between aortic wall shear stress (WSS) and disease activity by fusing 4D flow cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) with hybrid positron emission tomography (PET).

METHODS AND RESULTS

As part of an ongoing clinical trial, patients with bicuspid aortic valve (BAV) were prospectively imaged with both 18F-sodium fluoride (18F-NaF) PET, a marker of calcification activity, and 4D flow CMR. We developed novel software allowing accurate 3D co-registration and high-resolution comparison of aortic peak systolic WSS and 18F-NaF PET uptake (maximum tissue-to-background ratio). Intra-observer repeatability of both measurements was determined using Bland-Altman plots and intra-class correlation coefficients (ICCs). The relationship between localized WSS and 18F-NaF uptake was analysed using linear mixed-effect models. Twenty-three patients with BAV (median age 50 [44-55] years, 22% female) were included. Intra-observer repeatability for WSS (ICC = 0.92) and 18F-NaF (ICC = 0.91) measurements obtained within 1.4 ± 0.6 cm2 regions of interest was excellent. On multivariable analysis, 18F-NaF PET uptake was independently and negatively associated with WSS as well as diastolic blood pressure (both P < 0.05), adjusted for age.

CONCLUSION

Fused assessment of WSS and 18F-NaF PET uptake is feasible and repeatable, demonstrating a clear association between these two factors. This high spatial resolution approach has major potential to advance our understanding of the relationship between vascular haemodynamics and disease activity.

Modeling the underlying biological processes in Alzheimer's disease using a multivariate competing risk joint model

Many clinical trials repeatedly measure several longitudinal outcomes on patients. Patient follow‐up can discontinue due to an outcome‐dependent event, such as clinical diagnosis, death, or dropout. Joint modeling is a popular choice for the analysis of this type of data. Using example data from a prodromal Alzheimer's disease trial, we propose a new type of multivariate joint model in which longitudinal brain imaging outcomes and memory impairment ratings are allowed to be associated both with time to open‐label medication and dropout, and where the brain imaging outcomes may also directly affect the memory impairment ratings. Existing joint models for multivariate longitudinal outcomes account for the correlation between the longitudinal outcomes through the random effects, often by assuming a multivariate normal distribution. However, for these models, it is difficult to interpret how the longitudinal outcomes affect each other. We model the dependence between the longitudinal outcomes differently so that a first longitudinal outcome affects a second one. Specifically, for each longitudinal outcome, we use a linear mixed‐effects model to estimate its trajectory, where, for the second longitudinal outcome, we include the linear predictor of the first outcome as a time‐varying covariate. This facilitates an easy and direct interpretation of the association between the longitudinal outcomes and provides a framework for latent mediation analysis to understand the underlying biological processes. For the trial considered here, we found that part of the intervention effect is mediated through hippocampal brain atrophy. The proposed joint models are fitted using a Bayesian framework via MCMC simulation.

Heart rate variability is associated with left ventricular systolic, diastolic function and incident heart failure in the general population

BACKGROUND

HRV has mostly shown associations with systolic dysfunction and more recently, with diastolic dysfunction in Heart failure (HF) patients. But the role of sympathetic nervous system in changes of left ventricular (LV) systolic and diastolic function and new-onset HF has not been extensively studied.

METHODS

Among 3157 men and 4405 women free of HF and atrial fibrillation retrospectively included from the population-based Rotterdam Study, we used linear mixed models to examine associations of RR-interval differences and standard deviation of RR-intervals corrected for heart rate (RMSSDc and SDNNc) with longitudinal changes of LV ejection fraction (LVEF), E/A ratio, left atrial (LA) diameter, E/e' ratio. Afterwards, using cox regressions, we examined their association with new-onset HF.

RESULTS

Mean (SD) age was 65 (9.95) in men and 65.7 (10.2) in women. Every unit increase in log RMSSDc was accompanied by 0.75% (95%CI:-1.11%;-0.39%) and 0.31% (- 0.60%;-0.01%) lower LVEF among men and women each year, respectively. Higher log RMSSDc was linked to 0.03 (- 0.04;-0.01) and 0.02 (- 0.03;-0.003) lower E/A and also - 1.76 (- 2.77;- 0.75) and - 1.18 (- 1.99;-0.38) lower LVM index in both sexes and 0.72 mm (95% CI: - 1.20;-0.25) smaller LA diameters in women. The associations with LVEF in women diminished after excluding HF cases during the first 3 years of follow-up. During a median follow-up of 8.7 years, hazard ratios (95%CI) for incident HF were 1.34 (1.08;1.65) for log RMSSDc in men and 1.15 (0.93;1.42) in women. SDNNc showed similar associations.

CONCLUSIONS

Indices of HRV were associated with worse systolic function in men but mainly with improvement in LA size in women. Higher HRV was associated with higher risk of new-onset HF in men. Our findings highlight potential sex differences in autonomic function underlying cardiac dysfunction and heart failure in the general population.

Dynamic personalized risk prediction in chronic heart failure patients: a longitudinal, clinical investigation of 92 biomarkers (Bio-SHiFT study)

The aim of our observational study was to derive a small set out of 92 repeatedly measured biomarkers with optimal predictive capacity for adverse clinical events in heart failure, which could be used for dynamic, individual risk assessment in clinical practice. In 250 chronic HFrEF (CHF) patients, we collected trimonthly blood samples during a median of 2.2 years. We selected 537 samples for repeated measurement of 92 biomarkers with the Cardiovascular Panel III (Olink Proteomics AB). We applied Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) penalization to select the optimal set of predictors of the primary endpoint (PE). The association between repeatedly measured levels of selected biomarkers and the PE was evaluated by multivariable joint models (mvJM) with stratified fivefold cross validation of the area under the curve (cvAUC). The PE occurred in 66(27%) patients. The optimal set of biomarkers selected by LASSO included 9 proteins: NT-proBNP, ST2, vWF, FABP4, IGFBP-1, PAI-1, PON-3, transferrin receptor protein-1, and chitotriosidase-1, that yielded a cvAUC of 0.88, outperforming the discriminative ability of models consisting of standard biomarkers (NT-proBNP, hs-TnT, eGFR clinically adjusted) − 0.82 and performing equally well as an extended literature-based set of acknowledged biomarkers (NT-proBNP, hs-TnT, hs-CRP, GDF-15, ST2, PAI-1, Galectin 3) − 0.88. Nine out of 92 serially measured circulating proteins provided a multivariable model for adverse clinical events in CHF patients with high discriminative ability. These proteins reflect wall stress, remodelling, endothelial dysfunction, iron deficiency, haemostasis/fibrinolysis and innate immunity activation. A panel containing these proteins could contribute to dynamic, personalized risk assessment.

Clinical Trial Registration: 10/05/2013 https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01851538?term=nCT01851538&draw=2&rank=1.

Kidney function and the risk of sudden cardiac death in the general population

Background

Chronic kidney disease increases sudden cardiac death (SCD) risk, but the association between kidney function and SCD in a general population is largely unknown. Therefore, we investigated the association between kidney function and SCD in a general middle-aged and elderly population.

Methods

We included individuals aged ≥45 years from a prospective population-based cohort study. The association between kidney function assessments [estimated glomerular filtration rate based on serum creatinine (eGFRcreat), cystatin C (eGFRcys) or both (eGFRcreat-cys)] and SCD was investigated using Cox proportional-hazards and joint models. Absolute 10-year risks were computed using competing risk analyses. Mediation analyses were performed using a four-way decomposition method.

Results

We included 9687 participants (median follow-up 8.9 years; mean age 65.3 years; 56.7% women; 243 SCD cases). Lower eGFRcys and eGFRcreat-cys were associated with increased SCD risk [hazard ratio (HR) 1.23, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.12–1.34 and HR 1.17, 95% CI 1.06–1.29, per 10 mL/min/1.73 m² eGFR decrease]. A significant trend (P = 0.001) across eGFRcys categories was found, with an HR of 2.11 (95% CI 1.19–3.74) for eGFRcys <60 compared with eGFRcys >90 mL/min/1.73 m². Comparing eGFRcys of 90 to 60 mL/min/1.73 m², absolute 10-year risk increased from 1.0% to 2.5%. Identified subgroups at increased risk included older participants and participants with atrial fibrillation. The associations were not mediated by coronary heart disease, hypertension or diabetes.

Conclusions

Reduced kidney function is associated with increased SCD risk in the general population, especially with eGFRcys. eGFRcys could be added to prediction models and screening programmes for SCD prevention.

Incorporating historical controls in clinical trials with longitudinal outcomes using the modified power prior

Several dynamic borrowing methods, such as the modified power prior (MPP), the commensurate prior, have been proposed to increase statistical power and reduce the required sample size in clinical trials where comparable historical controls are available. Most methods have focused on cross‐sectional endpoints, and appropriate methodology for longitudinal outcomes is lacking. In this study, we extend the MPP to the linear mixed model (LMM). An important question is whether the MPP should use the conditional version of the LMM (given the random effects) or the marginal version (averaged over the distribution of the random effects), which we refer to as the conditional MPP and the marginal MPP, respectively. We evaluated the MPP for one historical control arm via a simulation study and an analysis of the data of Alzheimer's Disease Cooperative Study (ADCS) with the commensurate prior as the comparator. The conditional MPP led to inflated type I error rate when there existed moderate or high between‐study heterogeneity. The marginal MPP and the commensurate prior yielded a power gain (3.6%–10.4% vs. 0.6%–4.6%) with the type I error rates close to 5% (5.2%–6.2% vs. 3.8%–6.2%) when the between‐study heterogeneity is not excessively high. For the ADCS data, all the borrowing methods improved the precision of estimates and provided the same clinical conclusions. The marginal MPP and the commensurate prior are useful for borrowing historical controls in longitudinal data analysis, while the conditional MPP is not recommended due to inflated type I error rates.

Peripheral Immune Cell Numbers and C-Reactive Protein in Parkinson's Disease: Results from a Population-Based Study

BACKGROUND

The immune system is known to be involved in Parkinson's disease (PD) pathogenesis, but the temporal relationship between peripheral immune responses and PD remains unknown.

OBJECTIVE

We determined the association between peripheral immune cell numbers, C-reactive protein (CRP), and prevalent as well as incident PD.

METHODS

This study was embedded in the population-based setting of the Rotterdam Study. We repeatedly measured peripheral immune cell numbers (differential leukocyte count and platelet count, granulocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio [GLR], platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio [PLR], and adapted systemic immune-inflammation index [adapted SII]) and CRP between 1990 and 2016. Participants were continuously followed-up for PD until 2018. We estimated the association of the markers with prevalent and incident PD using logistic regression models and joint models, respectively. Models were adjusted for age, sex, smoking, body mass index, and medication use. Odds ratios (OR) and hazard ratios (HR) are shown per doubling of the marker.

RESULTS

A total of 12,642 participants were included in this study. The mean age (standard deviation) was 65.1 (9.8) years and 57.5%were women. Participants with a higher lymphocyte count were less likely to have prevalent PD (adjusted OR: 0.34, 95%CI 0.17-0.68). Participants with a higher GLR, PLR, and adapted SII were more likely to have prevalent PD, but these effects were explained by the lymphocyte count. The peripheral immune cell numbers and CRP were not significantly associated with the risk of incident PD.

CONCLUSION

We found participants with a higher lymphocyte count to be less likely to have prevalent PD, but we did not find an association between peripheral immune cell numbers nor CRP and the risk of incident PD.

The use of OCT to detect signs of intracranial hypertension in patients with sagittal suture synostosis: Reference values and correlations

PURPOSE

To obtain pediatric normative reference values and determine whether optical coherence tomography (OCT) corresponds better with clinical signs of intracranial hypertension (ICH) compared to the traditional screening method fundoscopy in a large cohort of one type of single suture craniosynostosis.

METHODS

Control subjects without optic nerve diseases and isolated sagittal synostosis patients aged 3-10 years who underwent fundoscopy and OCT were included in this prospective cohort study. Normative reference values were obtained through bootstrap analysis. Main outcome was the association between peripapillary total retinal thickness (TRT) and total retinal volume (TRV) and appearance on fundoscopy. Signs and symptoms suggestive of ICH, including skull growth arrest, fingerprinting, and headache, were scored.

RESULTS

Sixty-four healthy controls and 93 isolated sagittal synostosis patients were included. Normative cut-off values for mean TRT are < 256 μm and > 504 μm and for mean TRV < 0.21 mm³ and > 0.39 mm³. TRT was increased in 16 (17%) and TRV in 15 (16%) of 93 patients, compared to only 4 patients with papilledema on fundoscopy (4%). Both parameters were associated with papilledema on fundoscopy (OR = 16.7, p = 0.02, and OR = 18.2, p = 0.01). Skull growth arrest was significantly associated with abnormal OCT parameters (OR = 13.65, p < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

The established cut-off points can be applied to screen for ICH in pediatrics. The present study detected abnormalities with OCT more frequent than with fundoscopy, which were associated with skull growth arrest. Therefore, a combination of OCT, fundoscopy, and skull growth arrest can improve clinical decision-making in craniosynostosis.

Demographic, clinical, and service-use characteristics related to the clinician's recommendation to transition from child to adult mental health services

PURPOSE

The service configuration with distinct child and adolescent mental health services (CAMHS) and adult mental health services (AMHS) may be a barrier to continuity of care. Because of a lack of transition policy, CAMHS clinicians have to decide whether and when a young person should transition to AMHS. This study describes which characteristics are associated with the clinicians' advice to continue treatment at AMHS.

METHODS

Demographic, family, clinical, treatment, and service-use characteristics of the MILESTONE cohort of 763 young people from 39 CAMHS in Europe were assessed using multi-informant and standardized assessment tools. Logistic mixed models were fitted to assess the relationship between these characteristics and clinicians' transition recommendations.

RESULTS

Young people with higher clinician-rated severity of psychopathology scores, with self- and parent-reported need for ongoing treatment, with lower everyday functional skills and without self-reported psychotic experiences were more likely to be recommended to continue treatment. Among those who had been recommended to continue treatment, young people who used psychotropic medication, who had been in CAMHS for more than a year, and for whom appropriate AMHS were available were more likely to be recommended to continue treatment at AMHS. Young people whose parents indicated a need for ongoing treatment were more likely to be recommended to stay in CAMHS.

CONCLUSION

Although the decision regarding continuity of treatment was mostly determined by a small set of clinical characteristics, the recommendation to continue treatment at AMHS was mostly affected by service-use related characteristics, such as the availability of appropriate services.