Persuading republicans and democrats to comply with mask wearing: An intervention tournament

Many people practiced COVID-19-related safety measures in the first year of the pandemic, but Republicans were less likely to engage in behaviors such as wearing masks or face coverings than Democrats, suggesting radical disparities in health practices split along political fault lines. We developed an "intervention tournament" which aimed to identify the framings that would promote mask wearing among a representative sample of Republicans and Democrats in the U.S. from Oct 14, 2020, to Jan 14, 2021 (N = 4931). Seven different conditions reflecting different moral values and factors specific to COVID-19-including protection from harm (self), protection from harm (community), patriotic duty, purity, reviving the economy, threat, and scientific evidence-were implemented to identify which framings would "win" in terms of promoting mask wearing compared to a baseline condition. We found that Republicans had significantly more negative attitudes toward masks, lower intentions to wear them, and were less likely to sign or share pledges on social media than Democrats, which was partially mediated by Republicans, compared to Democrats, perceiving that the threat of COVID-19 was lower. None of our framing conditions significantly affected Republicans' or Democrats' attitudes, intentions, or behaviors compared to the baseline condition, illustrating the difficulty in overcoming the strength of political polarization during COVID-19.

Concern with COVID-19 pandemic threat and attitudes towards immigrants: The mediating effect of the desire for tightness

Tightening social norms is thought to be adaptive for dealing with collective threat yet it may have negative consequences for increasing prejudice. The present research investigated the role of desire for cultural tightness, triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, in increasing negative attitudes towards immigrants. We used participant-level data from 41 countries (N = 55,015) collected as part of the PsyCorona project, a cross-national longitudinal study on responses to COVID-19. Our predictions were tested through multilevel and SEM models, treating participants as nested within countries. Results showed that people's concern with COVID-19 threat was related to greater desire for tightness which, in turn, was linked to more negative attitudes towards immigrants. These findings were followed up with a longitudinal model (N = 2,349) which also showed that people's heightened concern with COVID-19 in an earlier stage of the pandemic was associated with an increase in their desire for tightness and negative attitudes towards immigrants later in time. Our findings offer insight into the trade-offs that tightening social norms under collective threat has for human groups.

The relationship between cultural tightness-looseness and COVID-19 cases and deaths: a global analysis

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic is a global health crisis, yet certain countries have had far more success in limiting COVID-19 cases and deaths. We suggest that collective threats require a tremendous amount of coordination, and that strict adherence to social norms is a key mechanism that enables groups to do so. Here we examine how the strength of social norms-or cultural tightness-looseness-was associated with countries' success in limiting cases and deaths by October, 2020. We expected that tight cultures, which have strict norms and punishments for deviance, would have fewer cases and deaths per million as compared with loose cultures, which have weaker norms and are more permissive.

METHODS

We estimated the relationship between cultural tightness-looseness and COVID-19 case and mortality rates as of Oct 16, 2020, using ordinary least squares regression. We fit a series of stepwise models to capture whether cultural tightness-looseness explained variation in case and death rates controlling for under-reporting, demographics, geopolitical factors, other cultural dimensions, and climate.

FINDINGS

The results indicated that, compared with nations with high levels of cultural tightness, nations with high levels of cultural looseness are estimated to have had 4·99 times the number of cases (7132 per million vs 1428 per million, respectively) and 8·71 times the number of deaths (183 per million vs 21 per million, respectively), taking into account a number of controls. A formal evolutionary game theoretic model suggested that tight groups cooperate much faster under threat and have higher survival rates than loose groups. The results suggest that tightening social norms might confer an evolutionary advantage in times of collective threat.

INTERPRETATION

Nations that are tight and abide by strict norms have had more success than those that are looser as of the October, 2020. New interventions are needed to help countries tighten social norms as they continue to battle COVID-19 and other collective threats.

FUNDING

Office of Naval Research, US Navy.

Predicting accidental falls in people with multiple sclerosis -- a longitudinal study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate accidental falls and near fall incidents in people with multiple sclerosis with respect to clinical variables and the predictive values of four tests.

DESIGN

A longitudinal, multi-centred cohort study with prospectively collected falls.

PROCEDURES

Self-reported incidents during the three months following a standardized test procedure.

SUBJECTS

Seventy-six people with multiple sclerosis and an Expanded Disability Status Scale score between 3.5 and 6.0.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Berg Balance Scale, Timed Up and Go cognitive, Four Square Step Test (FSST) and 12-item Multiple Sclerosis Walking Scale.

RESULTS

Forty-eight people (63%) registered 270 falls. Most falls occurred indoors during activities of daily life. We found a correlation of r(s)=0.57 between near falls and falls, and of r(s) = 0.82 between registered and retrospectively recalled falls. Fallers and non-fallers differed significantly regarding Expanded Disability Status Score (odds ratio (OR) 1.99, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.22; 3.40), spasticity (OR 1.14, CI 1.02; 1.31), proprioception (OR 2.50, CI 1.36; 5.12) and use of walking aids (OR 2.27, CI 1.23; 4.37). Reported use of walking aids both indoors and outdoors increased the odds of falling fivefold while disturbed proprioception increased the odds 2.5-15.6 times depending on severity. The odds of falling were doubled for each degree of increased Expanded Disability Status Score and more than doubled for each degree of increased spasticity. The Berg Balance Scale, use of walking aids and Timed Up and Go cognitive best identified fallers (73-94%) and proprioception, Expanded Disability Status Score, 12-item Multiple Sclerosis Walking Scale and Four Square Step Test best identified non-fallers (75-93%).

CONCLUSIONS

In clinical practice, looking at the use of walking aids, investigating proprioception and spasticity, rating Expanded Disability Status Score and using Berg Balance Scale or Timed Up and Go cognitive all contribute when identifying fallers.

Spatial and temporal distribution of bluetongue and its Culicoides vectors in Bulgaria

Surveillance of Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) biting midges was carried out between 2001 and 2003, at 119 sites within a 50 x 50-km grid distributed across Bulgaria, using light trap collections around the time of peak adult midge abundance. Sentinel and ad hoc serum surveillance of hosts susceptible to bluetongue infection was carried out at around 300 sites between 1999 and 2003. Following the initial incursion of bluetongue virus 9 (BTV-9) into Bourgas province in 1999, affecting 85 villages along the southern border, a further 76 villages were affected along the western border in 2001, with outbreaks extending as far north as 43.6 degrees N. The BTV-9 strain in circulation was found to have a low pathogenicity for Bulgarian sheep populations, with less than 2% of susceptible individuals becoming sick and seroconversions detected up to 30 km from recorded outbreaks in the south. The major Old World vector Culicoides imicola Kieffer was not detected among over 70,000 Culicoides identified in summer collections, suggesting that BTV-9 transmission in Bulgaria was primarily carried out by indigenous European vectors. The most likely candidates, the Palaearctic species complexes - the Culicoides obsoletus Meigen and C. pulicaris L. complexes - were widespread and abundant across the whole country. The C. obsoletus complex represented 75% of all individuals trapped in summer and occurred in high catch sizes (up to 15,000 individuals per night) but was not found across all outbreak sites, indicating that both Palearctic complexes probably played a role in transmission. Within the C. pulicaris complex, only C. pulicaris s.s., C. punctatus Meigen and C. newsteadi Austen were sufficiently abundant and prevalent to have been widely involved in transmission, whilst within the C. obsoletus complex most trapped males were C. obsoletus s.s. Adult vectors were found to be largely absent from sites in west Bulgaria for a period of at least 3 months over winter, which, taken along with the spatiotemporal pattern of outbreaks in the region between years, indicates the virus may be overwintering here by an alternative mechanism - either by covert persistence in the vertebrate host or possibly by persistence in larval stages of the vector.

Bluetongue vector species of Culicoides in Switzerland

Switzerland is historically recognized by the Office Internationale des Epizooties as free from bluetongue disease (BT) because of its latitude and climate. With bluetongue virus (BTV) moving north from the Mediterranean, an entomological survey was conducted in Switzerland in 2003 to assess the potential of the BTV vectors present. A total of 39 cattle farms located in three geographical regions, the Ticino region, the Western region and the region of the Grisons, were monitored during the vector season. Farms were located in areas at high risk of vector introduction and establishment based on the following characteristics: annual average temperature > 12.5 degrees C, average annual humidity >or= 60%, cattle farm. Onderstepoort black light traps were operated at the cattle farms generally for one night in July and one night in September. A total of 56 collections of Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) were identified morphologically. Only one single individual of Culicoides (Avaritia) imicola, the major Old World vector of BTV, was found in July 2003 in the Ticino region, one of the southernmost regions of Switzerland. In the absence of further specimens of C. imicola from Switzerland it is suggested that this individual may be a vagrant transported by wind from regions to the south of the country where populations of this species are known to occur. Alternative potential BTV vectors of the Culicoides (Culicoides) pulicaris and Culicoides (Avaritia) obsoletus complexes were abundant in all sampled regions with individual catches exceeding 70 000 midges per trap night.

Bluetongue surveillance in Switzerland in 2003: a serological and entomological survey

At present, Switzerland is considered officially free from bluetongue (BT) disease. Recently reported outbreaks have recorded BT moving north as far as latitude 44 degrees 30'N in Europe and 49 degrees N in Kazakhstan. The absence of clinical disease does not prove freedom from BT virus (BTV) infection. In addition, the occurrence and distribution of the only known biological vector, certain species of Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae), is poorly understood for Switzerland. Consequently the Swiss Veterinary Office initiated a project on BT surveillance in April 2003 on cattle farms. The study comprised serological and entomological activities; initial results are presented.

Culicoides in relation to transmission of African horse sickness virus in The Gambia

Twelve light trap collections made near overnight shelters of horses and donkeys in four villages in the Central River Division of The Gambia captured fourteen species of biting midge of the genus Culicoides. Five species new to The Gambia were identified. This brought the number of recognized species of Culicoides (after a revision of C. schultzei) to twenty-nine in The Gambia. Species known or suspected as vectors of African horse sickness virus (AHSV) and bluetongue virus (BTV) comprised 83% of female captures, 65% of captures being C. imicola or its sibling species, C. miombo. Captures of female Culicoides in the late dry season were almost as large as in the early dry season, despite the extreme heat and dryness at this time of the year. Tests on batches of formalin-preserved female midges, using AHSV or BTV antigen capture ELISAs, did not show the presence of any virus amongst 2286 females in 240 aliquots. Nearly all Gambian equines are reportedly seropositive to AHSV and these results suggest that virus challenge from Culicoides vectors may be a factor in the health of Gambian horses and donkeys.