Self-reported cycling behavior and previous history of traffic accidents of cyclists

BACKGROUND

Cyclists are vulnerable traffic users and studying the cycling behavior of professional and elite cyclists, their previous history of traffic accidents combined with the current knowledge on high-risk behaviors of this group can be a useful basis for further studies on ordinary cyclists. This study aimed to determine the relationship between cycling behavior and the previous history of traffic accidents among members of the Cycling Federation of Guilan province in 2022.

METHODS

A descriptive-analytical study was performed in which the Bicycle Rider Behavior Questionnaire (BRBQ) constructed in the Porsline platform was distributed using the WhatsApp social network. All participants were asked to self-report their cycling behavior. The final analysis was performed by using STATA software (version 14).

RESULTS

The study subjects included a total of 109 cyclists with a mean age of 38.62 ± 10.94 years and a mean cycling experience of 13.75 ± 11.08 years. Using the logistic regression model, the relationship between gender (P = 0.039), years of cycling experience (P = 0.000), and education level (P ≤ 0.00), with previous traffic accidents, was found significant. There was also a significant relationship between stunts and distractions (P = 0.005), signaling violation (P = 0.000), and control error (P = 0.011) with previous traffic accidents. A significant association existed between stunts and distractions (P = 0.001) and signaling violation (P = 0.001) with a previous history of traffic injury within the last 3 years.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of this study can be used to establish cyclist safety and preventative planning in society. In behavior change intervention programs, it is best to target male cyclists with higher-level education. In addition, the behavior of the cyclists whose predominant term of signaling violations must be corrected should be targeted. It is necessary to shape information campaigns and educational programs aimed for cyclists with common high-risk behaviors, especially signaling violations.

The diagnostic value of sonographic findings in pediatric elbow fractures: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Sonography is a beneficial imaging modality for detecting elbow fractures in children, considering the lack of radiation exposure and time efficiency. This systematic review aims to determine the diagnostic value and clinical applicability of sonography and each sonographic finding in detecting pediatric elbow fractures.

METHODS

Pubmed, Scopus, and WOS databases were searched for related original articles until February 25, 2023, and data related to diagnostic performance were extracted. We used the Bivariate model and hierarchic summary receiver operating characteristic (HSROC) approach to calculate pooled diagnostic values. Cochrane Q test and I-squared were performed to evaluate heterogeneity. We assessed heterogeneity with meta-regression.

RESULTS

Eight studies were included, which involved a total number of 880 patients. According to meta-analysis, sonography demonstrated a pooled sensitivity of 97% (91-99%) and specificity of 90% (80-95%), positive likelihood ratio(LR+) of 9.82 (4.59-20.97), and negative likelihood ratio (LR-) of 0.03 (0.01-0.10). For the sonographic posterior fat pad sign as a sole diagnostic sign, we calculated a Pooled Sensitivity of 80% (70-88%), Specificity of 97% (87-99%), LR+ of 28.8 (6-139.3), and LR- of 0.2 (0.13-0.31). Also, lipohemarthrosis demonstrated a pooled sensitivity of 80% (70-88%), specificity of 97% (87-99%), LR+ of 28.8 (6-139.3), and LR- of 0.2 (0.13-0.31). The sensitivity of detecting fractures with cortical line disruption was significantly higher in studies that utilized a comprehensive technique compared to a conventional technique.

CONCLUSIONS

Sonography is a valuable diagnostic tool for the assessment of pediatric elbow injuries, and it can be capable of confirmation or exclusion of the diagnosis.

Fatigue in taxi drivers and its relationship with traffic accident history and experiences: a cross-sectional study in the north of Iran

BACKGROUND

The monotonous nature of work, long driving duration, and working overload hours cause frequent fatigue in taxi drivers. A high prevalence of fatigue is associated with traffic accidents. However, the risk factors associated with taxi driver fatigue are unclear. Therefore, the present study aims to determine the rate of fatigue in taxi drivers and its relationship to their traffic accident experience.

METHODS

In this descriptive-analytical study, 400 taxi drivers in the city of Rasht were registered in Taxi association selected through random sampling and entered into the study based on inclusion criteria. Data was collected through a researcher-made questionnaire reliable and valid by two medical students. The statistical analysis used ordinal data and a Poisson regression model with SPSS software version 21, with a significance level set at 5%.

RESULTS

The driver fatigue self-reported was directly and significantly related to alcohol consumption (OR = 3.43, 95% CI 1.01-11.62) and had a significant and inverse relationship with smoking (OR = 0.50, 95% CI 0.32-0.76), being married (OR = 0.08, 95% CI 0.01-0.40) and driving experience there was (OR = 0.96, 95% CI 0.94-0.98). Drivers' sense of quality of life (QOL) was directly and significantly related to smoking (IRR = 1.43, 95% CI 1.28-1.59), education level under diploma (IRR = 2.41, 95% CI 1.43-4.06) diploma (IRR = 2.06, 95% CI 1.21-3.48) and bachelor (IRR = 2.42, 95% CI 1.36-4.29) and there was a significant and inverse relationship with age (IRR = 0.98, 95%CI 0.98-0.99). There was a significant relationship between the number of traffic accidents in the past year with the level of bachelor's degree (IRR = 3.10, 95% CI 1.43-6.76) and driving experience (IRR = 1.03, 95% CI 1.02-1.04 and inverse relationship between the number of traffic accidents in the past year and the QOL sense (IRR = 0.96, 95% CI 0.93-0.99) and the working hours (IRR = 0.96, 95% CI 0.94-0.99).

CONCLUSION

Legislators and policymakers should pay more attention to fatigue in single and inexperienced taxi drivers. Regarding the QOL, pay attention to drivers with high education and older. To reduce the number of crashes, pay more attention to drivers with a bachelor's degree and less driving experience and improve the feeling of QOL.

Diagnostic performance of sonography in penetrating torso trauma: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

This systematic review investigates the diagnostic value of ultrasound in the evaluation of torso injuries following a penetrating trauma.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Scopus, and WOS databases for related original articles until May 7, 2023, and extracted data related to diagnostic performance. The bivariate model and hierarchic summary receiver operating characteristic (HSROC) approach were used to calculate pooled diagnostic values. Cochrane Q test and I-squared were performed to evaluate heterogeneity. We assessed heterogeneity with meta-regression.

RESULTS

Seventeen studies were included, which involved a total number of 1866 patients. According to meta-analysis, sonography demonstrated a pooled sensitivity of 56% (45-67%) and specificity of 96% (94-97%), positive likelihood ratio (LR +) of 13.66 (8.03-23.23), and negative likelihood ratio (LR-) of 0.45 (0.35-0.59) for detecting abdominal injuries. In pericardial penetrating trauma, pooled sensitivity was 100% (45-100%), pooled specificity was 99% (96-100%), LR + was 136.7 (24.8-752.3), and LR- was 0.00 (0.00-1.22). For thoracic penetrating trauma, pooled sensitivity was 99% (93-100%) and specificity was 100% (98-100%).

CONCLUSIONS

Sonography demonstrated promising diagnostic value in the initial assessment of torso penetrating trauma, particularly in the thoracic and pericardial regions. However, the sensitivity of sonography is limited in abdominal penetrating trauma and a combination with other imaging modalities should be considered in these cases.

Return to work after traumatic spinal fractures and spinal cord injuries: a retrospective cohort study

This study aimed to determine the factors associated with return to work (RTW) after traumatic spinal fracture and spinal cord injury. It provided a predictive model for RTW among patients with spinal fractures and spinal cord injury and determined important factors influencing the time to RTW after injury. A retrospective cohort study was conducted in Poursina Tertiary Hospital, Guilan, Iran between May 2017 and May 2020. Patients aged 18 to 65 who were hospitalized with traumatic spinal fractures and spinal cord injuries were included. Demographic and clinical data were collected from the National Spinal Column/Cord Injury Registry of Iran (NSCIR-IR). A researcher-administered questionnaire was used through a telephone interview to obtain complementary data on social and occupational variables. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to estimate the average time to RTW and the predictors of RTW were determined by multivariate Cox regression model. Of the 300 patients included, 78.6% returned to work and the average time to RTW was about 7 months. The mean age of the participants was 45.63 ± 14.76 years old. Among the study variables, having a Bachelor's degree (HR 2.59; 95% CI 1.16-5.77; P = 0.019), complications after injury (HR 0.47; 95% CI 0.35-0.62; P = 0.0001), full coverage health insurance (HR 1.73; 95% CI 1.10-2.72; P = 0.016), opium use (HR 0.48; 95% CI 0.26-0.90; P = 0.023), number of vertebral fractures (HR 0.82; 95% CI 0.67-0.99; P = 0.046), and length of hospital stay (HR 0.95; 95% CI 0.93-0.98; P = 0.001) were found to be significant in predicting RTW in Cox regression analysis. Our analysis showed that wealthier people and those with high job mobility returned to work later.

Epidemiology of head injuries in pedestrian-motor vehicle accidents

Despite efforts of many countries to improve pedestrian safety, international reports show an upward trend in pedestrian-motor vehicle accidents. Although the most common cause of death of pedestrians is head injuries, there is a lack of knowledge on the epidemiology and characteristics of head injury in terms of the Glasgow Outcome Scale to be used for prevention. However, this study aimed to determine the epidemiology of pedestrian-motor vehicle accidents, the characteristics of head injury, and differences in the Glasgow Outcome Scale in terms of gender. In this retrospective analytical study, the data of 917 eligible injured pedestrians were obtained from the two databases of the Trauma System and the Hospital Information System. The data were analyzed using SPSS software (Version 21). The mean age of all 917 injured pedestrians was 47.55 ± 19.47 years. Most of the injured pedestrians (42.10%) were in the age range of 41-69 years and 81.31% were male. Moreover, 83.07% did not have any acute lesions on the CT scan. The most common brain lesion was brain contusion (n = 33, 3.60%), subarachnoid hemorrhage (n = 33, 3.60%), and skull fracture (n = 29, 3.16%). Among all concurrent injuries, lower extremity/pelvic injuries were observed in 216 patients (23.56%). Outpatient treatment (n = 782, 85.27%), airway control/endotracheal intubation (n = 57, 6.22%), and resuscitation (n = 35, 3.82%) were the most applied treatments respectively. There were significant differences in the Glasgow Outcome Scale between men and women (P- value = 0. 012). The high rate of mortalities, disability, head injuries, contusion, subarachnoid hemorrhage, and skull fractures in pedestrians involved in MVAs emphasizes the need for developing and implementing prevention strategies including appropriate management and risk reduction. Male pedestrians were at higher risk of motor vehicle accidents and worse Glasgow Outcome Scale. The presented data identified the main types of pedestrian injuries and suggested the importance of adopting appropriate preventive strategies to achieve the most effective interventions for creating a safer community.

Investigating the behavior of pedestrians and related factors in northern Iran in 2021

Among all road users, pedestrian behavior is most unpredictable, and our knowledge of pedestrian behavior and compliance in northern Iran is limited. The aim of the study was to determine the self-reporting behavior of pedestrians and related factors in northern Iran in 2021. This cross-sectional study's research tool included demographic characteristics, social characteristics, and a pedestrian behavior questionnaire (PBS - 43 questions). Data collection was randomly performed in 30 different passages around Rasht (a city in the north of Iran). We used the Poisson regression model and statistical software STATA version 15 for data analysis. With increasing age, pedestrians showed better crossing behavior (p < 0.001, β = 0.202), and the behavior of female pedestrians was better than that of male pedestrians (p < 0.001, β -4.79). As pedestrians, those with private jobs had worse crossing behavior than others (p < 0.045, β = 9.380), and those pedestrians who mentioned they were motorcyclists before had worse crossing behavior than others (p < 0.045, β = 9.380). The findings of this study can be used to establish pedestrian safety and preventative planning. In behavior change intervention programs, it is best to target young male pedestrians aiming to walk to their workplace, a private business. In addition, the behavior of pedestrians whose predominant means of transportation is the motorcycle must be corrected. It is necessary to conduct information campaigns and educational programs for pedestrians with common high-risk behaviors, especially errors and violations.

Helmet Use and Jaw and Tooth Injuries in Motorcyclists Admitted to a Referral Hospital

Background and Aim

The use of helmets has been reported to reduce the incidence and severity of head injuries in motorcyclists. However, there remains a significant gap in knowledge regarding the effectiveness of helmets, especially in preventing jaw and tooth injuries.

Patients and Methods

In this retrospective analytical study record, all traffic accidents that occurred continuously from 2017 to 2019 in which the motorcyclists were on at least one side of the collision based on inclusion criteria. Data from injury variables in medical records were merged with data related to helmet use in the trauma registration system in Excel software. Then, the final analysis was performed with STATA software version 14 at a significance level of < 0.05.

Results

In total, 1807 people participated in the study, and 160 (9.37) people used helmets. The incidence rate of jaw and tooth injuries was 86 (5.04%). Logistic regression implied that the odds ratio for helmet use was 0.7, which considering the p value of 0.419, shows no significant relationship between wearing helmets and jaw and tooth injuries.

Conclusion

Helmets alone cannot prevent jaw and tooth injuries, and designers should design helmets that protect the head and the jaw and tooth. In prevention programs and campaigns for motorcyclists, every age, gender, job, grade group and marital status are target groups.

Long- COVID and general health status in hospitalized COVID-19 survivors

Despite advances in clinical research, the long-term effects of COVID-19 on patients are not clear. Many studies revealed persistent long-term signs and symptoms. In a survey study, 259 hospitalized confirmed COVID-19 patients between 18 and 59 years were interviewed. Demographic characteristics and complaints were studied through telephone interviews. Any patient-reported symptoms that continued or developed from 4 weeks up to 12 weeks after the onset of the disease were recorded only if they did not exist prior to infection. The 12-Item General Health Questionnaire was used for screening and assessing mental symptoms and psychosocial well-being. The mean age of participants was 43.8 ± 9.9 years. About 37% had at least one underlying disease. 92.5% showed ongoing symptoms that the most prevalent complications were hair loss (61.4%), fatigue (54.1%), shortness of breath (40.2%), altered smell (34.4%), and aggression (34.4%), respectively. In terms of factors affecting patients' complaints, there were significant differences between age, sex, and underlying disease with long-remaining complications. This study shows a high rate of long COVID-19 conditions that should be considered by physicians, policymakers, and managers.

Violence Against Pre-hospital Emergency Medical Service Personnel in Guilan Province, Iran: A Cross-Sectional Study

Introduction: The first contact between emergency patients and medical services is carried out by emergency medical services (EMS). EMS personnel must deliver high-quality and high-speed services. This condition might cause high levels of stress and violence in the patients and their companions. Objective: In this research, we aimed to study the violent acts against pre-hospital EMS personnel in Guilan Province, Iran. Materials and Methods: This research was a cross-sectional study. A total of 110 EMS personnel working in Guilan Province in the north of Iran were selected using a random selection method between March and June 2020. A researcher-made questionnaire was used to collect the study data from the EMS personnel. The results were analyzed by the Poisson regression. Results: A total of 144 questionnaires were sent to the personnel, of these 110 were completed. The mean age of the participants was 34.89±3.65 years and all of them were male. About 61.8% of the samples experienced some kind of physical or verbal violence in the past 3 months. All cases of physical violence were perpetrated by men and half of them were done by close relatives of the patients. A significant relationship was found between the marital status of the EMS personnel and the number of physical violence they experienced (β=2.246, 95% CI; 0.058 to 4.446, P=0.032). In addition, the number of experienced physical violence was higher in those staff who worked at road EMS services compare to city or town EMS services (β=1.519,95% CI; 0.092 to 2.934, P=0.001). According to the EMS personnel, most of the attacks were answered calmly. The personnel revealed that the most important reason for not reporting physical violence was the futility of reports and the lack of guidelines for reporting violence. Conclusion: The findings of this study confirm that pre-hospital EMS are at high risk of workplace violence in Guilan Province which highly affects their health and well-being. Training EMS personnel and strengthening their communication skills are important factors in reducing violence against emergency services technicians.

Psychiatric symptoms and pain in maxillofacial injury following motor vehicle accidents: A comparative study

BACKGROUND/AIM

Post-traumatic stress disorders, depression, and pain are rarely discussed in the literature on maxillofacial injuries, and psychiatric symptoms and pain are not identified and managed in such patients. The aim of this study was to determine the symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorders, depression, and pain in people with maxillofacial injuries following motor vehicle accidents.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

In this cross-sectional study, people injured in motor vehicle accidents from March to September 2015 who were referred to a medical educational center in the northern part of Iran for treatment follow-up were sampled. The existing symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder by PSS, depression by BDI-II, and pain by NRS were assessed. SPSS software version 21 was used for analysis.

RESULTS

Maxillofacial injured patients had significant differences in terms of post-traumatic stress disorder (p = .006), depression (p = .001), pain (p = .001), and length of hospital stay (p = .002) than patients without maxillofacial injuries.

CONCLUSIONS

Motor vehicle accident victims with maxillofacial injuries suffered significantly more from post-traumatic stress disorders and depression, pain and length of hospital stay than patients with other injuries.

Burden in caregivers of spinal cord injury patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Caregivers of individuals with spinal cord injury encounter high levels of physical, psychosocial, and financial burden by providing lifelong assistance. In the present study, we aimed to assess the overall burden score of caregivers in spinal cord injury by pooling different standard scores together as a review.

METHOD

Search on databases of PubMed/Medline, Web of Science and Scopus was conducted using PRISMA guidelines. Studies that assessed the burden of care using the caregiver burden inventories of CBI (caregiver burden inventory), CBS (caregiver burden scale), CG (caregiver), CSI (Caregiver Strain Index), and short- and long-form Zarit questionnaires were included in our study. The results were analyzed using the meta-analysis method and a random effect pooled estimator. All analyses were performed using STATA SE software version 14.

RESULT

A total of 23 articles out of 399 retrieved studies were added to this review study. The overall score of caregiver burden in individuals with SCI was calculated 48.68 (95% CI 42.574-54.788). The I2 heterogeneity was 11.7%, suggesting a low level of heterogeneity among the included studies. There was no systematic difference between various questionnaires added to meta-analysis (P = 0.526). In addition, the caregiver burden did not differ in less and highly developed countries (P = 0.405).

CONCLUSION

Since SCI places a considerable burden on caregivers, scoring the burden of care can help policymakers plan for essential interventions and allocate more facilities for these patients and their caregivers.

Measuring Catastrophic Costs in Families Facing Traumatic Brain Injury in Iran

Objectives

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is preventable and expensive. The medical costs of TBI can be too high for some households and might lead to poverty, malnutrition, and loss of assets, which are called catastrophic expenditures. In this study, we investigated the incidence of catastrophic costs associated with TBI caused by road accidents in a province in northern Iran.

Methods

This prospective study involved a 1-year follow-up after the accident. Data of 220 patients were collected from the medical records of the Poursina Hospital, Rasht, Iran from March 2018 to February 2020. Direct and indirect costs faced by the households of patients with TBI and catastrophic costs related to TBI were calculated. Regression models were obtained and sensitivity analyses were performed at the end of the study.

Results

In total, the prevalence of households TBI-related catastrophic costs (TBICC) was 45.5% . Households of female patients (odds ratio [OR]: 0.289, p=0.042), households of retired patients (OR: 0.053, p=0.005), and households falling in the fifth quintile of wealth (OR: 0.370, p=0.050) faced lower TBICC compared to other groups. The Activities of Daily Living scores had a significant negative relationship with TBICC.

Conclusions

Political interventions such as implementation of insurance schemes, exemptions from payment for certain groups, identification of poor households, and coverage of assistance services can protect households from catastrophic health expenditures.

Vehicle submersion: an unknown mechanism of road trauma and drowning

Background:

Methods:

Results:

Conclusions:

Keywords:

The challenges of preventing drowning in Iran

Background:

Drowning is the second leading cause of death due to unintentional injury in northern Iran. Unlike other public injuries in Iran such as road traffic injury, only one drowning prevention program has been formally evaluated in this area of the country. The aim of this study is to describe the effect of the challenging program of drowning prevention on the reduction of drowning mortality cases in the north of Iran.

Methods:

We combined the data of the Iran National Registry of Drowning (INRD) and interviewed stockholders about the drowning prevention program to identify the challenges of drowning prevention in Iran. This type of research was thought to be the most appropriate for looking at events that could involve emotions. To access the opinion and perspective of the resident population in the rural settings of the study area regarding the drowning event, interviews were performed with the local elites including elected representatives, school teachers, religious leaders, and the victim’s families.

Results:

Based on drowning data, the registry was carried out by Guilan Road Trauma Research Center as a national center responsible for registering the drowning data through interviewing with lifeguards and health workers by the national focal point of drowning. Several factors have been identified as increasing the likelihood of drowning in northern Iran. The main factors included rip currents in the Caspian Sea, recirculation, buffer, standing waves, and Eddy line in rivers.

Conclusions:

This survey demonstrated that a prevention program for drowning can be sustainable when high-quality local drowning data are employed to target and model community-based injury prevention, and evaluate the outcomes. Local governments should install barriers for controlling access to water around rivers and canals and develop training programs on swimming, water safety, and safe rescue skills for the less than 18-year-old population by the Red Crescent Society.

Keywords:

Drowning, Prevention, INDR, Iran

A study of students' use of restraint systems in school transportation services in primary and secondary schools in northern Iran: an observational study

Background

Traffic accidents are one of the leading causes of death and severe injury among child occupants of vehicles in most countries. This has led to the consideration of how to use restraint systems for students in school buses. The purpose of the present study was to determine the percentage of students’ use of restraint systems in school transportation services in 2020.

Methods

In the present cross-sectional observational study, seatbelt use was assessed in 400 students in school transport vehicles using a checklist. The observation team sat at their vehicle, at the nearest location on one of the three sides of the school’s entrance: they had by manually registering the variable in the checklist. They focused on exactly the first vehicle parked next to the school entrance. There were two other observers to validate the observations. Data were analyzed by SPSS software (version 21).

Results

The rate of using restraint systems was 11.3%, use of restraint systems in the Sport Utility Vehicles (SUVs) was significantly higher (P < 0.03), in areas with medium income (P < 0.009) and low income (p < 0.012) as well as when the students were sitting in the rear seats, using the seatbelt were significantly lower (P < 0.001). Seatbelt use in students was less in services driven by drivers over the age of 40 (P < 0.01) and more in vehicles driven by female drivers (P < 0.003) and newer vehicles (p < 0.001).

Conclusion

School authorities must enforce traffic safety rules for school transportation services. These rules should be taught to drivers, families, and students. A restraint system must be mandatory for all students. School officials must equip their buses with seatbelts and employ school bus assistants to encourage wearing seatbelts and prevent students from standing.

Dental Environment Stress and The Related Factors in the Iranian Dental Students: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background: Stress is an influential factor in mental health; and can lead to psychological disorders. Thus, it has always been a concern for the medical personnel, and particularly dental students. This systematic review aimed to assess the dental environment stress and the related factors in the Iranian dental students.

Methods: In this systematic review, an electronic search of the literature was carried out in the Iranian and international databases, and all possible combinations of relevant keywords were searched using the Boolean operators. Data were analyzed using STATA SE 13.1 meta-analysis software. Heterogeneity of the data was evaluated using the I2 statistics, and the correlation between age and level of stress was analyzed by meta-regression. In the Chi-square (X2) heterogeneity test, P-value < 0.05 was considered significant.

Results: A total of 16 eligible articles (3,521 dental students) out of 821 retrieved studies were reviewed in this systematic review. The mean overall stress level of the Iranian dental students was 2.18 (95% CI:1.87-2.49). The maximum (2.21) and minimum (2.10) mean overall stress values of the Iranian dental students were associated with the dental environment stress (DES) questionnaire and the depression, anxiety and stress scale (DASS-21), respectively (P>0.05). Also, the 4th and 5th year dental students had the maximum (2.24) and minimum (2.01) mean overall stress levels, respectively (P>0.05). Gender had no correlation with the stress level (P=0.520).

Conclusion: The mean stress level of the Iranian dental students is moderate to high. Since stress reduction is directly correlated with the promotion of mental health and function, the authorities are required to revise the educational curricula following consultation with the counselors and implement effective programs to minimize the stress level of dental students. Also, achieving efficient communication between dental students and instructors can greatly improve the quality of clinical education.

How Much Money Should be Paid for a Patient to Isolate During the COVID-19 Outbreak? A Discrete Choice Experiment in Iran

INTRODUCTION

Isolation of COVID-19 patients is a vital strategy for preventing the spread of the virus. Isolation without any incentive or compensation for the patients cannot be effective. We sought to find the monetary value of the willingness to accept (WTA) being isolated for COVID-19 in Iran.

METHODS

In this discrete choice experiment, scenarios were designed by reviewing the literature and semi-structural interviews. Fourteen choice sets with two scenarios were included in an internet-based questionnaire that was sent to the Telegram Social Network. A total of 617 individuals completed the questionnaire. A random-effects logistic regression model was used for the main analysis.

RESULTS

The average monetary value of a WTA 7 days of isolation was US$51.71 (95% confidence interval [CI] 43.09-60.33). The WTA for one day of isolation was US$1.48 (95% CI 1.11-1.85) for unemployed groups, US$1.49 (95% CI 1.18-1.79) for office employees and US$1.36 (95% CI 0.73-2.01) for manual workers. The WTA was 0.44 (95% CI 0.35-0.53) US$ for low-income groups, US$0.68 (95% CI 0.52-0.84) for middle-income groups and US$0.77 (95% CI 0.35-1.18) for high-income groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggested that financial preferences for being isolated vary widely across individuals within different socioeconomic groups. Policymakers should consider these differences when designing effective intervention to increase compliance with the isolation protocols during infectious disease outbreaks.

Burden of Transport-Related Injuries in the Eastern Mediterranean Region: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Transport-related injuries (TIs) are a substantial public health concern for all regions of the world. The present study quantified the burden of TIs and deaths in the Eastern Mediterranean region (EMR) in 2017 by sex and age.

METHODS

TIs and deaths were estimated by age, sex, country, and year using Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) and DisMod-MR 2.1. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), which quantify the total burden of years lost due to premature death or disability, were also estimated per 100000 population. All estimates were reported along with their corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).

RESULTS

In 2017, there were 5.5 million (UI 4.9-6.2) transport-related incident cases in the EMR - a substantial increase from 1990 (2.8 million; UI 2.5-3.1). The age-standardized incidence rate for the EMR in 2017 was 787 (UI 705.5-876.2) per 100000, which has not changed significantly since 1990 (-0.9%; UI -4.7 to 3). These rates differed remarkably between countries, such that Oman (1303.9; UI 1167.3-1441.5) and Palestine (486.5; UI 434.5-545.9) had the highest and lowest age-standardized incidence rates per 100000, respectively. In 2017, there were 185.3 thousand (UI 170.8-200.6) transport-related fatalities in the EMR - a substantial increase since 1990 (140.4 thousand; UI 118.7-156.9). The age-standardized death rate for the EMR in 2017 was 29.5 (UI 27.1-31.9) per 100000, which was 30.5% lower than that found in 1990 (42.5; UI 36.8-47.3). In 2017, Somalia (54; UI 30-77.4) and Lebanon (7.1; UI 4.8-8.6) had the highest and lowest age-standardized death rates per 100,000, respectively. The age-standardised DALY rate for the EMR in 2017 was 1,528.8 (UI 1412.5-1651.3) per 100000, which was 34.4% lower than that found in 1990 (2,331.3; UI 1,993.1-2,589.9). In 2017, the highest DALY rate was found in Pakistan (3454121; UI 2297890- 4342908) and the lowest was found in Bahrain (8616; UI 7670-9751).

CONCLUSION

The present study shows that while road traffic has become relatively safer (measured by deaths and DALYs per 100000 population), the number of transport-related fatalities in the EMR is growing and needs to be addressed urgently.

Evaluation the accuracy and cost effectiveness of using the Bernese and Ottawa rules in ankle Sprain

INTRODUCTION

Ankle sprain is one of the most common musculoskeletal injuries that occur most commonly in the active and working population. Ottawa and Burns Laws are tools for physicians to determine the need for a radiograph of an ankle injury. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of the Ottawa and Bernese criteria in patients with torsion of the foot and the economical savings resulting from the application of these two criteria.

METHODS

This prospective study was designed to evaluate the two rules burns of Bernese and Ottawa and their economic savings were designed in two phases. They were referred to Poursina Medical Center, Rasht, Iran from September 2019 to the achieved sample size. Data were analyzed by SPSS software version 24 (Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) 21, Chicago, IL, USA).

RESULTS

A total of 800 patients were included in this study to determine the accuracy of bronze and Ottawa criteria in ankle torsion and the economic cost of using them. Of the 800 patients studied, 430 (53.7%) were male and 370 (46.3%) were female, with a mean age of 35.77±16.42 years. The diagnostic accuracy of the Ottawa criteria is 90% and the diagnostic accuracy of the Bernese criteria is 90.75%. The sensitivity of the Ottawa evaluation method was 97.6% and the specificity was 88%. The sensitivity of Bernese evaluation method was 91% and specificity was 90.7%.

CONCLUSION

Because of the higher sensitivity of the Ottawa criterion than the Bernese criteria, it is preferred to determine the probability of fracture for emergency unit personnel. Using these two methods can reduce the time, energy and cost of treatment for the patient during the treatment period.

Development and validation of a questionnaire to determine medical orders non-adherence: a sequential exploratory mixed-method study

Background

Patients’ non-adherence with medical orders of physicians in outpatient clinics can lead to reduced clinical effectiveness, inadequate treatment, and increased medical care expenses. This study was conducted to develop and validate a questionnaire to determine the reasons for patients’ non-adherence with physicians’ medical orders.

Methods

A sequential exploratory mixed-method study was conducted in two stages. The first stage comprised a qualitative stage to generate the primary items of the questionnaire. This stage provided findings of two sub-stages comprising a literature review and the findings of a qualitative conventional content analysis of 19 semi-structured interviews held with patients, physicians, and managers of the outpatient clinics in Kerman, an area located in southeastern Iran. The second stage comprised a quantitative study aiming evaluation of the instrument psychometric properties, including the face, content, construct, and reliability assessment of the questionnaire. Construct validity assessment was evaluated using exploratory factor analysis (EFA). The reliability assessment was done using assessing internal consistency (Cronbach’s alpha). To assess the construct validity of the questionnaire, four hundred and forty patients referred to outpatient clinics in Kerman were selected using stratified convenience sampling to fill out the questionnaire. The sample size was calculated using the Cochran formula. Qualitative and quantitative data were analyzed by MAXQDA 10 and Stata version 14, respectively.

Results

The primary items contained 57 items, of which 42 met the minimum acceptable value of 0.78 for item-level content validity index (I-CVI = 1 for 24 items and I-CVI = 0.8 for 18 items). Item-level content validity ratio (I-CVR) was confirmed for 18 items with a minimum acceptable value of 0.99 for five experts. Finally, 18 items obtained the acceptable value for both I-CVI and I-CVR indicators and were confirmed. Using EFA, four factors (intrapersonal-psychological, intrapersonal-cognitive, provider-related, and socio-economic reasons) with 18 items and Cronbach’s alpha coefficient of 0.70, 0.66, 0.73, and 0.71, respectively, were identified and explained 51% of the variance. The reliability of the questionnaire (r = 0.70) was confirmed.

Conclusion

The questionnaire with four dimensions is a valid and reliable instrument that can help determine the perceived reasons for non-adherence with medical orders in the outpatient services system.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12913-021-06147-3.

Household Overcrowding in Iran, a Low-middle-income Country: How Major of a Public Health Concern Is It?

Objectives

Household overcrowding (HC) can contribute to both physical and mental disorders among the members of overcrowded households. This study aimed to measure the status of HC and its main determinants across the provinces of Iran.

Methods

Data from 39 864 households from the 2016 Iranian Household Income and Expenditures Survey were used in this study. The Equivalized Crowding Index (ECI) and HC index were applied to measure the overcrowding of households. Regression models were estimated to show the relationships between different variables and the ECI.

Results

The overall, urban, and rural prevalence of HC was 8.2%, 6.3%, and 10.1%, respectively. The highest prevalence of HC was found in Sistan and Baluchestan Province (28.7%), while the lowest was found in Guilan Province (1.8%). The number of men in the household, rural residency, the average age of household members, yearly income, and the household wealth index were identified as the main determinants of the ECI and HC.

Conclusions

The study demonstrated that the ECI and HC were higher in regions near the borders of Iran than in other regions. Therefore, health promotion and empowerment strategies are required to avoid the negative consequences of HC, and screening programs are needed to identify at-risk families.

Cigarette Smoking and Its Financial Burden among Iranian Households: Evidence from Household Income and Expenditures Survey

Background: The financial burden of cigarette smoking on households’ budget is not well documented in Iran. We aimed to identify the determinants of cigarette consumption and its financial burden among households in Iran.

Study design: A cross-sectional study.

Methods: A total of 39,864 Iranian’s households from 31 provinces were included in the analysis. Data on sociodemographic and socioeconomic characteristics (age, sex, household size, education level, employment status, income and wealth index), living area, number of cigarettes smoked and cigarette expenditures for households were extracted from the 2016 Household Income and Expenditures Survey (HIES). Tobit model was used to identify the determinants of cigarette smoking frequency and expenditures among Iranian households.

Results: The average number of cigarettes smoked and cigarettes expenditures by all household members was 85.25 cigarettes and US$ 2.64 per month. Living in urban areas, wealth index of households, household income, household size and low educational attainment of household members were positively associated with frequency and expenditures of cigarette smoking. Results also indicated increasing patterns in the number of cigarettes smoked and cigarettes expenditures from east to west of the country. East Azerbaijan, Hamadan, Markazi and Chaharmahal va Bakhtiari provinces had higher cigarette smoking frequency and expenditures in Iran.

Conclusions: Tobacco control interventions in Iran should focus more on households living in urban areas and low-educated households. As the frequency of cigarette smoking was higher in the western region of Iran, comprehensive tobacco control policies should be adopted in western provinces.

Burden of injury along the development spectrum: associations between the Socio-demographic Index and disability-adjusted life year estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The epidemiological transition of non-communicable diseases replacing infectious diseases as the main contributors to disease burden has been well documented in global health literature. Less focus, however, has been given to the relationship between sociodemographic changes and injury. The aim of this study was to examine the association between disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from injury for 195 countries and territories at different levels along the development spectrum between 1990 and 2017 based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates.

METHODS

Injury mortality was estimated using the GBD mortality database, corrections for garbage coding and CODEm-the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on surveys and inpatient and outpatient data sets for 30 cause-of-injury with 47 nature-of-injury categories each. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) is a composite indicator that includes lagged income per capita, average educational attainment over age 15 years and total fertility rate.

RESULTS

For many causes of injury, age-standardised DALY rates declined with increasing SDI, although road injury, interpersonal violence and self-harm did not follow this pattern. Particularly for self-harm opposing patterns were observed in regions with similar SDI levels. For road injuries, this effect was less pronounced.

CONCLUSIONS

The overall global pattern is that of declining injury burden with increasing SDI. However, not all injuries follow this pattern, which suggests multiple underlying mechanisms influencing injury DALYs. There is a need for a detailed understanding of these patterns to help to inform national and global efforts to address injury-related health outcomes across the development spectrum.

Quality and quantity of price elasticity of cigarette in Iran

OBJECTIVE

Effectiveness of tax policies to control cigarette consumption largely depends on the sensitivity of cigarette demand due to price change. Price elasticity is the measurement of this responsiveness. The main objective of this study is to measure quantity, and quality price elasticity of demand (PED) and cross-price elasticity of demand (XED) for Iranian and non-Iranian cigarette brands in Iran.

METHODS

This study used data from the 2017 Iranian household income and expenditures survey conducted in all 31 provinces of Iran. A total of 39,864 households were included in the survey. PED of quantity and quality and XED were estimated using restricted, unrestricted and quintile regression models.

RESULTS

Our results s show that the Iranian and non-Iranians brands cigarettes were price inelastic and elastic, respectively. XED between Iranian and non-Iranian brands was positive suggesting households' preference for Iranian brands of cigarettes over non-Iranian brands. Quintile regression results suggest that PED varied between -1.20 and -0.91 across the distribution of quantity demanded.

CONCLUSION

Imposing tax could be a useful policy tool to control smoking initiation and intensity in Iran. However, the effectiveness of such policy would depend on the better governance of taxation imposed on different brands of cigarettes.

Decomposing socioeconomic inequality in dental caries in Iran: cross-sectional results from the PERSIAN cohort study

Background

The current study aimed to measure and decompose socioeconomic-related inequalities in DMFT (decayed, missing, and filled teeth) index among adults in Iran.

Methods

The study data were extracted from the adult component of Prospective Epidemiological Research Studies in IrAN (PERSIAN) from 17 centers in 14 different provinces of Iran. DMFT score was used as a measure of dental caries among adults in Iran. The concentration curve and relative concentration index (RC) was used to quantify and decompose socioeconomic-related inequalities in DMFT.

Results

A total of 128,813 adults aged 35 and older were included in the study. The mean (Standard Deviation [SD]) score of D, M, F and DMFT of the adults was 3.3 (4.6), 12.6 (10.5), 2.1 (3.4) and 18.0 (9.5), respectively. The findings suggested that DMFT was mainly concentrated among the socioeconomically disadvantaged adults (RC = - 0.064; 95% confidence interval [CI), - 0.066 to - 0.063). Socioeconomic status, being male, older age and being a widow or divorced were identified as the main factors contributing to the concentration of DMFT among the worse-off adults.

Conclusions

It is recommended to focus on the dental caries status of socioeconomically disadvantaged groups in order to reduce socioeconomic-related inequality in oral health among Iranian adults. Reducing socioeconomic-related inequalities in dental caries should be accompanied by appropriate health promotion policies that focus actions on the fundamental socioeconomic causes of dental disease.

The relationship between weight indices and injuries and mortalities caused by the motor vehicle accidents: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The relationship between weight indices and injuries and mortality in motor vehicle accidents is unknown. Systematic review studies addressing the collection and analysis of the relationship in investigations are very limited. The purpose of this systematic review is to determine the relationship between BMI, obesity and overweight with mortality and injuries and their severity and vulnerable organs after the motor vehicle accident.

METHODS

The databases (MEDLINE/PUBMED, EMBASE, Web of Science, etc) were searched for relevant abstracts using certain keywords. Of all the articles, similar ones were removed considering different filters. The collected data were entered into the STATA SE v 13.1. The heterogeneity of the data was analyzed using i2 statistics. In addition, the estimates of the study were done based on the age group (children and adults) and the impact of obesity on different regions of the body.

RESULTS

A direct relationship was observed between the overall BMI and the degrees of injuries (CI=0.503-1.139), and mortality due to motor vehicle accident (CI=1.267-1.471). A positive relationship was found between obesity and AIS+2 (CI=0.653-1.426), and AIS+3 (CI=1.184-1.741), and ISS (CI=1.086-1.589). Also, a negative relationship between overweight and injuries rates, and a direct relationship between overweight and mortality (CI=0.979-1.167), and injuries with index of AIS+2 (CI=1.178-0.768) and AIS+3 (CI=0.48-2.186) were found.

CONCLUSIONS

The prediction of injury, mortality and severity of injuries in the motor vehicle accident by the variable of obesity and overweight determines the need to design prevention programs for this vulnerable group at all levels.

Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2-to end preventable child deaths by 2030-we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000-2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.

Determinants of utilization and out-of-pocket payments for psychiatric healthcare in Iran

Purpose

Mental health is an inevitable and vital dimension when it comes to providing a global definition for the appropriate health status. This highlights the importance of investigating factors influencing utilization and out-of-pocket payments (OOP) for mental health services. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to assess the determinants of the utilization and OOP for psychiatric healthcare in Iran.

Design/methodology/approach

A total of 39,864 households were included in this cross-sectional study. Data on the utilization and OOP for psychiatric healthcare as well as all their determinants (e.g. wealth index of households, geographical area, household size, etc.) were extracted from the Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES). The HIES was conducted by the Statistical Center of Iran in 2016. A zero-inflated Tobit model was used to identify the main factors affecting utilization and OOP for psychiatric healthcare utilization.

Findings

The average of utilization and OOP for psychiatric services was found to be 14.67 times per 1,000 households and $7.783 per month for service users, respectively. There were significant positive relationships between income and utilization (p=0.0002) and OOP (p<0.0001) for psychiatric services. Significant negative associations were found between the number of illiterate people in the household and OOP (coefficient=−1.56) and utilization (coefficient=−0.2002) for psychiatric services. Utilization and OOP for psychiatric services were statistically significantly higher among households with higher wealth status.

Originality/value

Despite the higher rate of mental disorders, the utilization of psychiatric services in Iran is very low. Due to financial barriers and insufficient insurance coverage, high socioeconomic status (SES) households utilize more psychiatric services than low-SES households. Thus, the integration of mental health services in public health programs is required to improve the utilization of psychiatric services in Iran.

Hourly time series model in drowning-induced mortality in Guilan and Mazandaran provinces

Background:

Drowning is considered a major health problem in the world. According to World Health Organization statistics, drowning is one of the 10 main causes of death in the age range of 1-24 years in each region, and the third cause of death resulted from unintentional injuries in the world. The purpose of the study is to analyze drowning peak hours to help promote prevention policies.

Methods:

The present study used drowning data of Guilan and Mazandaran provinces in summer. The study model was estimated using a semi-panel non-linear Poisson regression model. The number of deaths was sorted according to the hours of drowning in three years 2014, 2015, and 2016. Finally, the predicted graphs of the hours of mortality and the regression model were estimated.

Results:

The regression model showed that the relationship between daytime hours and drowning mortality had a second-order pattern. The mortality increases during daytime hours, then it decreases. The IRR of time variable was 2.66 and significant, indicating a mean growth of 266% per pass of each hour of daytime. The hourly second-order IRR was 0.9689 and significant, indicating a decreasing hourly rate of drowning. The predicted peak point of drowning was at 15 o'clock.

Conclusions:

The study showed drowning peak time occurs at noon when it is warming and the swimmer may be neglected. Therefore, we can educate and made the society, especially parents, aware of the issue to help prevent and reduce the frequency of drowning.

Keywords:

Drowning, Time Series, Mortality

The challenges of establishing drowning registration system in Iran

Background:

Adopting effective drowning prevention measures are dependent on collecting data on drowning rate, since drowning prevention requires the planning and policy-making on known risk factors. When interventions are carried out, data are still required to monitor and evaluate the evaluation of the strategy. Therefore, recording drowning cases accurately can be effective in its preventing. The purpose of this study was to provide the challenges of implementing a drowning registry.

Methods:

Various sessions were held with attendance of the experts from the related provincial organizations such as Red Crescent, EMS, Lifeguard, and Governor General Office, Ports and Shipping, among others, as well as the health experts from medical universities. The existing challenges were recognized using qualitative research and semi-structured interview method. All related challenges were mentioned and prepared through qualitative interviews with twenty experts. Finally, they were analyzed utilizing MAXQDA software.

Results:

The most important problems in implementing the drowning registration system included: 1- Lack of enough time to collect data on the registration system when providing emergency services on the beach 2- Lack of proper map and GPS system in identifying drowning locations 3- Lack of a single responsible organization for dealing with the beaches’ issues 4- Lack of correspondence in organization involved in drowning in northern coastal provinces 5- Lack of sufficient information about important variables related to the registration system 6- The absence of the rescue forces in some areas other than the sea protected areas and the lack of access to clinical data on drowning in these zones at night hours 7- Need for more cooperation by the Forensic Medicine Organizations of provinces to provide data

Conclusions:

The drowning registration system has many challenges that can mostly be solved by providing appropriate funding and right registering of drowning and purchasing appropriate equipment.

Keywords:

Drowning registration, Challenges, Coastal provinces

Past, present, and future of global health financing: a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 195 countries, 1995-2050

BACKGROUND

Comprehensive and comparable estimates of health spending in each country are a key input for health policy and planning, and are necessary to support the achievement of national and international health goals. Previous studies have tracked past and projected future health spending until 2040 and shown that, with economic development, countries tend to spend more on health per capita, with a decreasing share of spending from development assistance and out-of-pocket sources. We aimed to characterise the past, present, and predicted future of global health spending, with an emphasis on equity in spending across countries.

METHODS

We estimated domestic health spending for 195 countries and territories from 1995 to 2016, split into three categories-government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending-and estimated development assistance for health (DAH) from 1990 to 2018. We estimated future scenarios of health spending using an ensemble of linear mixed-effects models with time series specifications to project domestic health spending from 2017 through 2050 and DAH from 2019 through 2050. Data were extracted from a broad set of sources tracking health spending and revenue, and were standardised and converted to inflation-adjusted 2018 US dollars. Incomplete or low-quality data were modelled and uncertainty was estimated, leading to a complete data series of total, government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending, and DAH. Estimates are reported in 2018 US dollars, 2018 purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars, and as a percentage of gross domestic product. We used demographic decomposition methods to assess a set of factors associated with changes in government health spending between 1995 and 2016 and to examine evidence to support the theory of the health financing transition. We projected two alternative future scenarios based on higher government health spending to assess the potential ability of governments to generate more resources for health.

FINDINGS

Between 1995 and 2016, health spending grew at a rate of 4·00% (95% uncertainty interval 3·89-4·12) annually, although it grew slower in per capita terms (2·72% [2·61-2·84]) and increased by less than $1 per capita over this period in 22 of 195 countries. The highest annual growth rates in per capita health spending were observed in upper-middle-income countries (5·55% [5·18-5·95]), mainly due to growth in government health spending, and in lower-middle-income countries (3·71% [3·10-4·34]), mainly from DAH. Health spending globally reached $8·0 trillion (7·8-8·1) in 2016 (comprising 8·6% [8·4-8·7] of the global economy and $10·3 trillion [10·1-10·6] in purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars), with a per capita spending of US$5252 (5184-5319) in high-income countries, $491 (461-524) in upper-middle-income countries, $81 (74-89) in lower-middle-income countries, and $40 (38-43) in low-income countries. In 2016, 0·4% (0·3-0·4) of health spending globally was in low-income countries, despite these countries comprising 10·0% of the global population. In 2018, the largest proportion of DAH targeted HIV/AIDS ($9·5 billion, 24·3% of total DAH), although spending on other infectious diseases (excluding tuberculosis and malaria) grew fastest from 2010 to 2018 (6·27% per year). The leading sources of DAH were the USA and private philanthropy (excluding corporate donations and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation). For the first time, we included estimates of China's contribution to DAH ($644·7 million in 2018). Globally, health spending is projected to increase to $15·0 trillion (14·0-16·0) by 2050 (reaching 9·4% [7·6-11·3] of the global economy and $21·3 trillion [19·8-23·1] in purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars), but at a lower growth rate of 1·84% (1·68-2·02) annually, and with continuing disparities in spending between countries. In 2050, we estimate that 0·6% (0·6-0·7) of health spending will occur in currently low-income countries, despite these countries comprising an estimated 15·7% of the global population by 2050. The ratio between per capita health spending in high-income and low-income countries was 130·2 (122·9-136·9) in 2016 and is projected to remain at similar levels in 2050 (125·9 [113·7-138·1]). The decomposition analysis identified governments' increased prioritisation of the health sector and economic development as the strongest factors associated with increases in government health spending globally. Future government health spending scenarios suggest that, with greater prioritisation of the health sector and increased government spending, health spending per capita could more than double, with greater impacts in countries that currently have the lowest levels of government health spending.

INTERPRETATION

Financing for global health has increased steadily over the past two decades and is projected to continue increasing in the future, although at a slower pace of growth and with persistent disparities in per-capita health spending between countries. Out-of-pocket spending is projected to remain substantial outside of high-income countries. Many low-income countries are expected to remain dependent on development assistance, although with greater government spending, larger investments in health are feasible. In the absence of sustained new investments in health, increasing efficiency in health spending is essential to meet global health targets.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of traumatic brain injury and spinal cord injury, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) and spinal cord injury (SCI) are increasingly recognised as global health priorities in view of the preventability of most injuries and the complex and expensive medical care they necessitate. We aimed to measure the incidence, prevalence, and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for TBI and SCI from all causes of injury in every country, to describe how these measures have changed between 1990 and 2016, and to estimate the proportion of TBI and SCI cases caused by different types of injury.

METHODS

We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016 to measure the global, regional, and national burden of TBI and SCI by age and sex. We measured the incidence and prevalence of all causes of injury requiring medical care in inpatient and outpatient records, literature studies, and survey data. By use of clinical record data, we estimated the proportion of each cause of injury that required medical care that would result in TBI or SCI being considered as the nature of injury. We used literature studies to establish standardised mortality ratios and applied differential equations to convert incidence to prevalence of long-term disability. Finally, we applied GBD disability weights to calculate YLDs. We used a Bayesian meta-regression tool for epidemiological modelling, used cause-specific mortality rates for non-fatal estimation, and adjusted our results for disability experienced with comorbid conditions. We also analysed results on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index, a compound measure of income per capita, education, and fertility.

FINDINGS

In 2016, there were 27·08 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24·30-30·30 million) new cases of TBI and 0·93 million (0·78-1·16 million) new cases of SCI, with age-standardised incidence rates of 369 (331-412) per 100 000 population for TBI and 13 (11-16) per 100 000 for SCI. In 2016, the number of prevalent cases of TBI was 55·50 million (53·40-57·62 million) and of SCI was 27·04 million (24·98-30·15 million). From 1990 to 2016, the age-standardised prevalence of TBI increased by 8·4% (95% UI 7·7 to 9·2), whereas that of SCI did not change significantly (-0·2% [-2·1 to 2·7]). Age-standardised incidence rates increased by 3·6% (1·8 to 5·5) for TBI, but did not change significantly for SCI (-3·6% [-7·4 to 4·0]). TBI caused 8·1 million (95% UI 6·0-10·4 million) YLDs and SCI caused 9·5 million (6·7-12·4 million) YLDs in 2016, corresponding to age-standardised rates of 111 (82-141) per 100 000 for TBI and 130 (90-170) per 100 000 for SCI. Falls and road injuries were the leading causes of new cases of TBI and SCI in most regions.

INTERPRETATION

TBI and SCI constitute a considerable portion of the global injury burden and are caused primarily by falls and road injuries. The increase in incidence of TBI over time might continue in view of increases in population density, population ageing, and increasing use of motor vehicles, motorcycles, and bicycles. The number of individuals living with SCI is expected to increase in view of population growth, which is concerning because of the specialised care that people with SCI can require. Our study was limited by data sparsity in some regions, and it will be important to invest greater resources in collection of data for TBI and SCI to improve the accuracy of future assessments.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Higher Income for Male Physicians: Findings About Salary Differences Between Male and Female Iranian Physicians

Background:

In recent decades, the role of women in the organizations of developed and less developed countries has increased, but little is known about gender gap in salaries of Iranian physicians.

Aims:

To analyze the gender gap in the salary of physicians working in public health sector of Iran and its predicting factors in 2016.

Study Design:

Cross sectional study.

Methods:

Thirty thousand eight hundred and twenty four records about characteristics of study population were extracted from national human resources for health database. Nearest neighborhood matching technique was used to find adjusted differences of salary between male and female physicians. In addition, by using Oaxaca decomposition method, the reasons for the differences were found.

Results:

The results showed that there was a difference of 117 dollars in monthly salaries of male and female physicians in favor of men. Differences in male and female salaries could be predicted by place of work and residency, type of specialty, type of employment and marital status.

Conclusion:

Gender gap in physicians’ salaries exists in public health sector of Iran. The payment methods of salaries for men and women should be revised in order to remove the inequalities.

Physicians' retention rate and its effective factors in the Islamic Republic of Iran

Background

Migration of physicians from less developed countries to affluent ones has become as one of the major concerns of human resource policy-makers. This leads to problems such as inequity in the distribution of physicians, lack of physicians in less developed areas, as well as an excess of the health workforce in developed environs. Thus, policy-makers aim to increase retention of physicians in their places of origin.

Aims

This study aimed to find those effective factors for the retention of physicians in the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Methods

30 569 records of public sector physicians in 2016 were gathered from the Ministry of Health and Medical Education database, and the retention rate of each province was calculated. Geographic information system (GIS) was used to show retention in each province, and linear and logistic regression analysis were used to determine the effective factors for physicians' retention in the country.

Results

There was a significant relationship between per capita gross domestic product of each province and its retention rate of physicians (OR = 1.56), retention rate of family physicians (OR = 7.38), and retention rate of specialists (OR = 1.59). In addition, relationships were significant for the human development index (all physicians [OR = 1.22], family physicians [OR = 2.36], and specialists [OR = 1.23]). Married physicians, higher paid physicians, and those who worked in headquarters and clinics showed greater willingness to stay in their area of origin.

Conclusions

Physicians' retention rate is dependent on both macro and microlevel factors.

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally.

METHODS

The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950.

FINDINGS

Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development.

INTERPRETATION

This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017.

METHODS

The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries-Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised.

FINDINGS

At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5-74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9-19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7-8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5-23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20-8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0-8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0-24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1-33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5-4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2-15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9-59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8-148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2-40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2-36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990-neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases-were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases.

INTERPRETATION

Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment.

METHODS

We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator.

FINDINGS

The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4-67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6-14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1-86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030.

INTERPRETATION

The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains-curative interventions in the case of NCDs-towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions-or inaction-today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk-outcome associations.

METHODS

We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.

FINDINGS

In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3-35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14-1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6-62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3-50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39-11·5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83-7·37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23-8·23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99-6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36-1·51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3-6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low.

INTERPRETATION

By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data.

METHODS

We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting.

FINDINGS

Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]).

INTERPRETATION

Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods.

METHODS

We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories.

FINDINGS

From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4-52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5-4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10-19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34-40) to 22 livebirths (19-24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3-200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5-2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4-7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15-64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9-1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8-7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07-0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3-0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0-3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger.

INTERPRETATION

Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Effect of Cost Sharing on Utilization of General Physician Care: A Cross-Sectional Survey from Shiraz, Iran

INTRODUCTION

High-cost sharing in physician care may result in worse health outcomes and financial burdens for individuals, and it reduces needed health-care utilization. Hence, this study examines the impact of cost sharing on utilization of Physician care.

METHODS

In the present study, multistage sampling (n = 1610) was done to collect general physician utilization and quality of life. Count data model was used to analyze the effect of cost sharing and other factor on the ratio of referring to the general physician. Negative binomial regression was employed to analyze the utilization model.

RESULTS

People who have high-cost sharing had used general physician services much less, so that ratio of incidence among them was 0.18 less than individuals with low-cost sharing (P < 0.05). Gender and age variables showed a significant effect on the demand for the general physician visit (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

A low cost-sharing policy would remove the clinically and financial threat from the patient decision-making so as to provide them with access to needed care.