Lifetime and 10-year cardiovascular risk prediction in individuals with type 1 diabetes: The LIFE-T1D model

AIMS

To develop and externally validate the LIFE-T1D model for the estimation of lifetime and 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in individuals with type 1 diabetes.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A sex-specific competing risk-adjusted Cox proportional hazards model was derived in individuals with type 1 diabetes without prior CVD from the Swedish National Diabetes Register (NDR), using age as the time axis. Predictors included age at diabetes onset, smoking status, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, glycated haemoglobin level, estimated glomerular filtration rate, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, albuminuria and retinopathy. The model was externally validated in the Danish Funen Diabetes Database (FDDB) and the UK Biobank.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 11.8 years (interquartile interval 6.1-17.1 years), 4608 CVD events and 1316 non-CVD deaths were observed in the NDR (n = 39 756). The internal validation c-statistic was 0.85 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.84-0.85) and the external validation c-statistics were 0.77 (95% CI 0.74-0.81) for the FDDB (n = 2709) and 0.73 (95% CI 0.70-0.77) for the UK Biobank (n = 1022). Predicted risks were consistent with the observed incidence in the derivation and both validation cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

The LIFE-T1D model can estimate lifetime risk of CVD and CVD-free life expectancy in individuals with type 1 diabetes without previous CVD. This model can facilitate individualized CVD prevention among individuals with type 1 diabetes. Validation in additional cohorts will improve future clinical implementation.

Continuous glucose monitoring in adults with type 2 diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) is increasingly used in the treatment of type 2 diabetes, but the effects on glycaemic control are unclear. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis is to provide a comprehensive overview of the effect of CGM on glycaemic control in adults with type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review using Embase, MEDLINE, Web of Science, Scopus and ClinicalTrials.gov from inception until 2 May 2023. We included RCTs investigating real-time CGM (rtCGM) or intermittently scanned CGM (isCGM) compared with self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG) in adults with type 2 diabetes. Studies with an intervention duration <6 weeks or investigating professional CGM, a combination of CGM and additional glucose-lowering treatment strategies or GlucoWatch were not eligible. Change in HbA1c and the CGM metrics time in range (TIR), time below range (TBR), time above range (TAR) and glycaemic variability were extracted. We evaluated the risk of bias using the Cochrane risk-of-bias tool version 2. Data were synthesised by performing a meta-analysis. We also explored the effects of CGM on severe hypoglycaemia and micro- and macrovascular complications.

RESULTS

We found 12 RCTs comprising 1248 participants, with eight investigating rtCGM and four isCGM. Compared with SMBG, CGM use (rtCGM or isCGM) led to a mean difference (MD) in HbA1c of -3.43 mmol/mol (-0.31%; 95% CI -4.75, -2.11, p<0.00001, I2=15%; moderate certainty). This effect was comparable in studies that included individuals using insulin with or without oral agents (MD -3.27 mmol/mol [-0.30%]; 95% CI -6.22, -0.31, p=0.03, I2=55%), and individuals using oral agents only (MD -3.22 mmol/mol [-0.29%]; 95% CI -5.39, -1.05, p=0.004, I2=0%). Use of rtCGM showed a trend towards a larger effect (MD -3.95 mmol/mol [-0.36%]; 95% CI -5.46 to -2.44, p<0.00001, I2=0%) than use of isCGM (MD -1.79 mmol/mol [-0.16%]; 95% CI -5.28, 1.69, p=0.31, I2=64%). CGM was also associated with an increase in TIR (+6.36%; 95% CI +2.48, +10.24, p=0.001, I2=9%) and a decrease in TBR (-0.66%; 95% CI -1.21, -0.12, p=0.02, I2=45%), TAR (-5.86%; 95% CI -10.88, -0.84, p=0.02, I2=37%) and glycaemic variability (-1.47%; 95% CI -2.94, -0.01, p=0.05, I2=0%). Three studies reported one or more events of severe hypoglycaemia and macrovascular complications. In comparison with SMBG, CGM use led to a non-statistically significant difference in the incidence of severe hypoglycaemia (RR 0.66, 95% CI 0.15, 3.00, p=0.57, I2=0%) and macrovascular complications (RR 1.54, 95% CI 0.42, 5.72, p=0.52, I2=29%). No trials reported data on microvascular complications.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

CGM use compared with SMBG is associated with improvements in glycaemic control in adults with type 2 diabetes. However, all studies were open label. In addition, outcome data on incident severe hypoglycaemia and incident microvascular and macrovascular complications were scarce.

REGISTRATION

This systematic review was registered on PROSPERO (ID CRD42023418005).

Effects of icosapent ethyl according to baseline residual risk in patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease: results from REDUCE-IT

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Icosapent ethyl lowers triglycerides and significantly reduces major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), though treatment effects may vary between individuals. This study aimed to determine the relative and absolute effects of icosapent ethyl on MACE according to baseline CVD risk in patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD).

METHODS

Participants from REDUCE-IT with ASCVD were included (n = 5,785). The primary outcome was 3-point MACE, i.e. non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, or cardiovascular death. Baseline 5-year risk of MACE was estimated using the ESC guideline-recommended SMART2 risk score. Modification of the relative treatment effects of icosapent ethyl by baseline risk was assessed using Cox proportional hazards models including a treatment-by-risk interaction. Next, treatment effects were assessed stratified by quartiles of baseline risk.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 4.8 years (interquartile range 3.2-5.3), MACE occurred in 361 vs 489 patients in the icosapent ethyl vs placebo group (95% confidence interval [CI]); hazard ratio (HR) 0.72 (0.63-0.82), absolute risk reduction (ARR) 4.4% (2.6-6.2%), number needed to treat (NNT) 23 (16-38), 5-year Kaplan-Meier estimated cumulative incidence reduction (CIR) 5.7% (3.5-7.9%). Icosapent ethyl significantly reduced MACE in all risk quartiles, with an HR (95% CI) of 0.62 (0.43-0.88), 0.66 (0.48-0.92), 0.69 (0.53-0.90), and 0.78 (0.63-0.96) respectively (p for treatment-by-risk interaction = 0.106). The ARR (95% CI) increased across risk quartiles, i.e. was 3.9% (1.0-6.8%), 4.3% (1.2-7.3%), 5.1% (1.4-8.7%), and 5.6% (1.3-10.0%) respectively. This translates to NNTs (95% CI) of 26 (15-98), 24 (14-84), 20 (11-70), and 18 (10-77). The 5-year CIR (95% CI) was 4.8% (1.3-8.2%), 5.0% (1.3-8.7%), 6.1% (1.7-10.5%), and 7.7% (2.3-13.2%) respectively. Consistent results were obtained for 5-point MACE, additionally including coronary revascularization and unstable angina.

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with ASCVD and elevated triglyceride levels, icosapent ethyl significantly reduces the risk of MACE irrespective of baseline CVD risk, though absolute benefits are largest for patients at the highest risk.

Impact of the 2021 European Society for Cardiology prevention guideline's stepwise approach for cardiovascular risk factor treatment in patients with established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease

AIMS

This study aimed to evaluate the stepwise approach for cardiovascular (CV) risk factor treatment as outlined by the European Society for Cardiology 2021 guidelines on CV disease (CVD) prevention in patients with established atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD).

METHODS AND RESULTS

In patients with ASCVD, included in UCC-SMART (n = 8730) and European parts of the REACH registry (n = 18 364), the 10-year CV risk was estimated using SMART2. Treatment effects were derived from meta-analyses and trials. Step 1 recommendations were LDL cholesterol (LDLc) < 1.8 mmol/L, systolic blood pressure (SBP) < 140 mmHg, using any antithrombotic medication, sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibition, and smoking cessation. Step 2 recommendations were LDLc < 1.4 mmol/L, SBP < 130 mmHg, dual-pathway inhibition (DPI, aspirin plus low-dose rivaroxaban), colchicine, glucagon-like peptide (GLP)-1 receptor agonists, and eicosapentaenoic acid. Step 2 was modelled accounting for Step 1 non-attainment. With current treatment, residual CV risk was 22%, 32%, and 60% in the low, moderate, and pooled (very) high European risk regions, respectively. Step 2 could prevent up to 198, 223 and 245 events per 1000 patients treated, respectively. Intensified LDLc reduction, colchicine, and DPI could be applied to most patients, preventing up to 57, 74, and 59 events per 1000 patients treated, respectively. Following Step 2, the number of patients with a CV risk of <10% could increase from 20%, 6.4%, and 0.5%, following Step 1, to 63%, 48%, and 12%, in the respective risk regions.

CONCLUSION

With current treatment, residual CV risk in patients with ASCVD remains high across all European risk regions. The intensified Step 2 treatment options result in marked further reduction of residual CV risk in patients with established ASCVD.

KEY FINDINGS

Guideline-recommended intensive treatment of patients with cardiovascular disease could prevent additional 198-245 new cardiovascular events for every 1000 patients treated.

Development and validation of a lifetime prediction model for incident type 2 diabetes in patients with established cardiovascular disease: the CVD2DM model

AIMS

Identifying patients with established cardiovascular disease (CVD) who are at high risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) may allow for early interventions, reducing the development of T2D and associated morbidity. The aim of this study was to develop and externally validate the CVD2DM model to estimate the 10-year and lifetime risks of T2D in patients with established CVD.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Sex-specific, competing risk-adjusted Cox proportional hazard models were derived in 19 281 participants with established CVD and without diabetes at baseline from the UK Biobank. The core model's pre-specified predictors were age, current smoking, family history of diabetes mellitus, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, fasting plasma glucose, and HDL cholesterol. The extended model also included HbA1c. The model was externally validated in 3481 patients from the UCC-SMART study. During a median follow-up of 12.2 years (interquartile interval 11.3-13.1), 1628 participants with established CVD were diagnosed with T2D in the UK Biobank. External validation c-statistics were 0.79 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.76-0.82] for the core model and 0.81 (95% CI 0.78-0.84) for the extended model. Calibration plots showed agreement between predicted and observed 10-year risk of T2D.

CONCLUSION

The 10-year and lifetime risks of T2D can be estimated with the CVD2DM model in patients with established CVD, using readily available clinical predictors. The model would benefit from further validation across diverse ethnic groups to enhance its applicability. Informing patients about their T2D risk could motivate them further to adhere to a healthy lifestyle.

Prevalence and determinants of self-reported low-fat-, low-salt-, and vegetarian diets in patients with cardiovascular disease between 1996 and 2019

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Guidelines no longer recommend low-fat diets and currently recommend more plant-based diets to reduce atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk. Furthermore, these guidelines have consistently recommended salt-reduced diets. This article describes current self-reported use and time-trends in the self-reported use of low-fat, low-salt and vegetarian diets in ASCVD patients and examines patient characteristics associated with each diet.

METHODS AND RESULTS

9005 patients with ASCVD included between 1996 and 2019 in the UCC-SMART cohort were studied. The prevalence of self-reported diets was assessed and multi-variable logistic regression was used to identify the determinants of each diet. Between 1996-1997 and 2018-2019, low-fat diets declined from 22.4 % to 3.8 %, and low-salt diets from 14.7 % to 4.6 %. The prevalence of vegetarian diets increased from 1.1 % in 1996-1997 to 2.3 % in 2018-2019. Patients with cerebrovascular disease (CeVD) and peripheral artery disease or an abdominal aortic aneurysm (PAD/AAA) were less likely to report a low-salt diet than coronary artery disease (CAD) patients (OR 0.62 [95%CI 0.49-0.77] and 0.55 [95%CI 0.41-0.72]).

CONCLUSION

In the period 1996 to 2019 amongst patients with ASCVD, the prevalence of self-reported low-fat diets was low and decreased in line with changes in recommendations in major guidelines. The prevalence of self-reported vegetarian diets was low but increased in line with societal and guideline changes. The prevalence of self-reported low-salt diets was low, especially in CeVD and PAD/AAA patients compared to CAD patients, and decreased over time. Renewed action is needed to promote low-salt diets in ASCVD patients.

Sex differences in modifiable risk factors for stroke incidence and recurrence: the UCC-SMART study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Risk factors for stroke differ between women and men in general populations. However, little is known about sex differences in secondary prevention. We investigated if sex interacted with modifiable risk factors for stroke in a large arterial disease cohort.

METHODS

Within the prospective UCC-SMART study, 13,898 patients (35% women) with atherosclerotic disease or high-risk factor profile were followed up to 23 years for stroke incidence or recurrence. Hypertension, smoking, diabetes, overweight, dyslipidemia, high alcohol use, and physical inactivity were studied as risk factors. Association between these factors and ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke incidence or recurrence was studied in women and men using Cox proportional hazard models and Poisson regression models. Women-to-men relative hazard ratios (RHR) and rate differences (RD) were estimated for each risk factor. Left-truncated age was used as timescale.

RESULTS

The age-adjusted stroke incidence rate was lower in women than men (3.9 vs 4.4 per 1000 person-years), as was the age-adjusted stroke recurrence rate (10.0 vs 11.7). Hypertension and smoking were associated with stroke risk in both sexes. HDL cholesterol was associated with lower stroke incidence in women but not in men (RHR 0.49; CI 0.27-0.88; and RD 1.39; CI - 1.31 to 4.10). Overweight was associated with a lower stroke recurrence in women but not in men (RHR 0.42; CI 0.23-0.80; and RD 9.05; CI 2.78-15.32).

CONCLUSIONS

In high-risk population, sex modifies the association of HDL cholesterol on stroke incidence, and the association of overweight on stroke recurrence. Our findings highlight the importance of sex-specific secondary prevention.

Generalisability of trials on antithrombotic treatment intensification in patients with cardiovascular disease

OBJECTIVE

Assessment of generalisability of guideline-informing trials on antithrombotic treatment intensification to real-world patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD).

METHODS

Inclusion and exclusion criteria of the Cardiovascular Outcomes for People Using Anticoagulation Strategies (COMPASS), Clopidogrel for High Atherothrombotic Risk and Ischemic Stabilization, Management and Avoidance (CHARISMA), Prevention of Cardiovascular events in Patients with Prior Heart Attack Using Ticagrelor Compared to Placebo on a Background of Aspirin-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (PEGASUS-TIMI) and Dual Antiplatelet Therapy (DAPT) study were applied to coronary artery disease (CAD) and/or peripheral artery disease (PAD) patients from Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-Second Manifestations of Arterial Disease (UCC-SMART) to determine real-world eligibility. Eligible and ineligible patients were compared on baseline characteristics, cardiovascular events, major bleeding and mortality.

RESULTS

Eligibility ranged from 11%-94% for CAD to 75%-90% for patients with PAD. Cardiovascular, bleeding and mortality risks were higher in COMPASS-eligible patients with CAD (rate ratios (RR) 1.98 (95% CI 1.74 to 2.26), 2.02 (95% CI 1.47 to 2.78) and 3.11 (95% CI 2.71 to 3.57), respectively) and CHARISMA-eligible patients (RR 1.51 (95% CI 1.12 to 2.06), 2.25 (95% CI 1.01 to 6.21) and 4.43 (95% CI 2.79 to 7.51), respectively), and lower in COMPASS-eligible patients with PAD (RR 0.45 (95% CI 0.36 to 0.56), 0.29 (95% CI 0.18 to 0.46) and 0.45 (95% CI 0.38 to 0.54), respectively) and DAPT-eligible patients with CAD (RR CVD 0.49 (95% CI 0.34 to 0.69) and mortality 0.67 (95% CI 0.48 to 0.94)) than ineligible patients. After adjustment for trial eligibility criteria, only higher cardiovascular and mortality risks in COMPASS-eligible patients with CAD and lower cardiovascular risks in CHARISMA-eligible and DAPT-eligible patients persisted with CAD.

CONCLUSION

A large proportion of contemporary CVD patients would be eligible for intensified antithrombotic treatment trials, with mostly similar adjusted event risks to ineligible patients. Trial-based guideline recommendations are largely applicable to real-world patients.

Diet in secondary prevention: the effect of dietary patterns on cardiovascular risk factors in patients with cardiovascular disease: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Improving dietary habits is a first-line recommendation for patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD). It is unclear which dietary pattern most effectively lowers cardiovascular risk factors and what the short- and long-term effects are. Therefore, this network meta-analysis compared the effects of popular dietary patterns on cardiovascular risk factors in patients with established CVD.

METHODS

A systematic search of PubMed, Embase, the Cochrane library, SCOPUS and Web of Science was conducted up to 1 April 2023. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing the effect of popular dietary patterns (Mediterranean, moderate carbohydrate, low glycemic index, low-fat and minimal dietary intervention) on cardiovascular risk factors (body weight, systolic blood pressure, lipids) in CVD populations were selected. A random-effects network meta-analysis was performed.

RESULTS

Seventeen RCTs comprising 6,331 participants were included. The moderate carbohydrate diet had the most beneficial effect on body weight (-4.6 kg, 95%CrI -25.1; 15.8) and systolic blood pressure (-7.0 mmHg 95%CrI -16.8; 2.7) compared to minimal intervention. None of the included dietary patterns had a favorable effect on low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. After 12 months, the effects were attenuated compared to those at < 6 months.

CONCLUSIONS

In this network meta-analysis of 17 randomized trials, potentially clinically relevant effects of dietary interventions on CV risk factors were observed, but there was considerable uncertainty due to study heterogeneity, low adherence, or actual diminished effects in the medically treated CVD population. It was not possible to select optimal dietary patterns for secondary CVD prevention. Given recent clinical trials demonstrating the potential of dietary patterns to significantly reduce cardiovascular event risk, it is likely that these effects are effectuated through alternative physiological pathways.

Validation of Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation 2 (SCORE2) and SCORE2-Older Persons in the EPIC-Norfolk prospective population cohort

AIMS

The European Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation 2 (SCORE2) and SCORE2-Older Persons (OP) models are recommended to identify individuals at high 10-year risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Independent validation and assessment of clinical utility is needed. This study aims to assess discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility of low-risk SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Validation in individuals aged 40-69 years (SCORE2) and 70-79 years (SCORE2-OP) without baseline CVD or diabetes from the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer (EPIC) Norfolk prospective population study. We compared 10-year CVD risk estimates with observed outcomes (cardiovascular mortality, non-fatal myocardial infarction, and stroke). For SCORE2, 19 560 individuals (57% women) had 10-year CVD risk estimates of 3.7% [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.6-3.7] vs. observed 3.8% (95% CI 3.6-4.1) [observed (O)/expected (E) ratio 1.0 (95% CI 1.0-1.1)]. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.75 (95% CI 0.74-0.77), with underestimation of risk in men [O/E 1.4 (95% CI 1.3-1.6)] and overestimation in women [O/E 0.7 (95% CI 0.6-0.8)]. Decision curve analysis (DCA) showed clinical benefit. Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation 2-Older Persons in 3113 individuals (58% women) predicted 10-year CVD events in 10.2% (95% CI 10.1-10.3) vs. observed 15.3% (95% CI 14.0-16.5) [O/E ratio 1.6 (95% CI 1.5-1.7)]. The AUC was 0.63 (95% CI 0.60-0.65) with underestimation of risk across sex and risk ranges. Decision curve analysis showed limited clinical benefit.

CONCLUSION

In a UK population cohort, the SCORE2 low-risk model showed fair discrimination and calibration, with clinical benefit for preventive treatment initiation decisions. In contrast, in individuals aged 70-79 years, SCORE2-OP demonstrated poor discrimination, underestimated risk in both sexes, and limited clinical utility.

Long-term lifestyle change and risk of mortality and Type 2 diabetes in patients with cardiovascular disease

AIMS

To quantify the relationship between self-reported, long-term lifestyle changes (smoking, waist circumference, physical activity, and alcohol consumption) and clinical outcomes in patients with established cardiovascular disease (CVD).

METHODS AND RESULTS

Data were used from 2011 participants (78% male, age 57 ± 9 years) from the Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease cohort who returned for a re-assessment visit (SMART2) after ∼10 years. Self-reported lifestyle change was classified as persistently healthy, improved, worsened, or persistently unhealthy. Cox proportional hazard models were used to quantify the relationship between lifestyle changes and the risk of (cardiovascular) mortality and incident Type 2 diabetes (T2D). Fifty-seven per cent of participants was persistently healthy, 17% improved their lifestyle, 8% worsened, and 17% was persistently unhealthy. During a median follow-up time of 6.1 (inter-quartile range 3.6-9.6) years after the SMART2 visit, 285 deaths occurred, and 99 new T2D diagnoses were made. Compared with a persistently unhealthy lifestyle, individuals who maintained a healthy lifestyle had a lower risk of all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 0.48, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.36-0.63], cardiovascular mortality (HR 0.57, 95% CI 0.38-0.87), and incident T2D (HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.28-0.73). Similarly, those who improved their lifestyle had a lower risk of all-cause mortality (HR 0.52, 95% CI 0.37-0.74), cardiovascular mortality (HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.26-0.81), and incident T2D (HR 0.50, 95% CI 0.27-0.92).

CONCLUSION

These findings suggest that maintaining or adopting a healthy lifestyle can significantly lower mortality and incident T2D risk in CVD patients. This study emphasizes the importance of ongoing lifestyle optimization in CVD patients, highlighting the potential for positive change regardless of previous lifestyle habits.

Individual lifetime benefit from low-dose colchicine in patients with chronic coronary artery disease

AIMS

Low-dose colchicine reduces cardiovascular risk in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD), but absolute benefits may vary between individuals. This study aimed to assess the range of individual absolute benefits from low-dose colchicine according to patient risk profile.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guideline-recommended SMART-REACH model was combined with the relative treatment effect of low-dose colchicine and applied to patients with CAD from the Low-Dose Colchicine 2 (LoDoCo2) trial and the Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease (UCC-SMART) study (n = 10 830). Individual treatment benefits were expressed as 10-year absolute risk reductions (ARRs) for myocardial infarction, stroke, or cardiovascular death (MACE), and MACE-free life-years gained. Predictions were also performed for MACE plus coronary revascularization (MACE+), using a new lifetime model derived in the REduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health (REACH) registry. Colchicine was compared with other ESC guideline-recommended intensified (Step 2) prevention strategies, i.e. LDL cholesterol (LDL-c) reduction to 1.4 mmol/L and systolic blood pressure (SBP) reduction to 130 mmHg. The generalizability to other populations was assessed in patients with CAD from REACH North America and Western Europe (n = 25 812). The median 10-year ARR from low-dose colchicine was 4.6% [interquartile range (IQR) 3.6-6.0%] for MACE and 8.6% (IQR 7.6-9.8%) for MACE+. Lifetime benefit was 2.0 (IQR 1.6-2.5) MACE-free years, and 3.4 (IQR 2.6-4.2) MACE+-free life-years gained. For LDL-c and SBP reduction, respectively, the median 10-year ARR for MACE was 3.0% (IQR 1.5-5.1%) and 1.7% (IQR 0.0-5.7%), and the lifetime benefit was 1.2 (IQR 0.6-2.1) and 0.7 (IQR 0.0-2.3) MACE-free life-years gained. Similar results were obtained for MACE+ and in American and European patients from REACH.

CONCLUSION

The absolute benefits of low-dose colchicine vary between individual patients with chronic CAD. They may be expected to be of at least similar magnitude to those of intensified LDL-c and SBP reduction in a majority of patients already on conventional lipid-lowering and blood pressure-lowering therapy.

Validation of spot urine in estimating 24-h urinary sodium, potassium and sodium-to-potassium ratio during three different sodium diets in healthy adults

PURPOSE

To evaluate the validity of spot urine assay methods in estimating the 24-h urinary sodium, potassium and sodium-to-potassium ratio during three different sodium diets.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Twelve healthy volunteers were asked to adhere to 3 dietary sodium targets (3.3-5.0g/day,<3.3 g/day and >5.0 g/day) for three consecutive weeks and to measure salt excretion daily in spot urine samples using a self-monitoring device. On day 7 of each week, 24-h urine was collected to compare measured with estimated 24-h salt excretion (by the Kawasaki, Tanaka and INTERSALT equations).

RESULTS

Correlation coefficients relating measured and estimated 24-h sodium excretion were low and not significant for Kawasaki and INTERSALT and moderate for the Tanaka equation (τ 0.56-0.64,p<.05). Bland-Altman plots showed considerable differences between estimated and measured sodium excretion across all salt diets. Over 40% of the participants showed an absolute difference between measured and estimated 24-h sodium of more than 1000 mg/day. The correlation coefficients between 24-h and spot Na/K ratio were 0.67, 0.94 and 0.85(p<.05), and mean differences were 0.59, 0.06 and 0.48 for the intermediate, low and high sodium diets, respectively.

CONCLUSION

These findings do not support estimation of individual 24-h salt excretion from spot urine by the Kawasaki, Tanaka, or INTERSALT formula. Plain language summaryAccurate monitoring of salt intake is essential to improve BP control. At present, measurement of sodium and potassium excretion in multiple non-consecutive 24-h urinary collections is considered the gold standard for measuring dietary sodium intake. However, this method is burdensome, time-consuming and error prone.Therefore, we assessed and compared the validity of three formula-based approaches to estimate 24-h urinary sodium and potassium excretion and the Na/K ratio from spot urine samples measured by a self-monitoring device under three different sodium diets using 24-h urine collections as the reference.We conclude that use of three commonly used equations that estimate 24-h urinary sodium and potassium excretion result in substantial bias, poor precision and poor accuracy and are therefore not recommended. The Na/K ratio based on multiple casual urine samples may be a useful, low-burden, low-cost alternative method to 24-h urine collection for monitoring daily salt intake.

Comparison of the European and US guidelines for lipid-lowering therapy in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease

AIMS

Population-wide impacts of new guidelines in the primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) should be explored in independent cohorts. Assess and compare the lipid-lowering therapy eligibility and predictive classification performance of 2016 and 2021 European Society of Cardiology (ESC), 2019 American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology (AHA/ACC), and 2022 US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) guidelines.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Participants from the CoLaus|PsyCoLaus study, without ASCVD and not taking lipid-lowering therapy at baseline. Derivation of 10-year risk for ASCVD using Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE1), SCORE2 [including SCORE2-Older Persons (SCORE2-OP)], and pooled cohort equation. Computation of the number of people eligible for lipid-lowering therapy based on each guideline and assessment of discrimination and calibration metrics of the risk models using first incident ASCVD as an outcome. Among 4,092 individuals, 158 (3.9%) experienced an incident ASCVD during a median follow-up of 9 years (interquartile range, 1.1). Lipid-lowering therapy was recommended or considered in 40.2% (95% confidence interval, 38.2-42.2), 26.4% (24.6-28.2), 28.6% (26.7-30.5), and 22.6% (20.9-24.4) of women and in 62.1% (59.8-64.3), 58.7% (56.4-61.0), 52.6% (50.3-54.9), and 48.4% (46.1-50.7) of men according to the 2016 ESC, 2021 ESC, 2019 AHA/ACC, and 2022 USPSTF guidelines, respectively. 43.3 and 46.7% of women facing an incident ASCVD were not eligible for lipid-lowering therapy at baseline according to the 2021 ESC and 2022 USPSTF, compared with 21.7 and 38.3% using the 2016 ESC and 2019 AHA/ACC, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Both the 2022 USPSTF and 2021 ESC guidelines particularly reduced lipid-lowering therapy eligibility in women. Nearly half of women who faced an incident ASCVD were not eligible for lipid-lowering therapy.

The relevance of competing risk adjustment in cardiovascular risk prediction models for clinical practice

BACKGROUND

Many models developed for predicting the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) are adjusted for the competing risk of non-CVD mortality, which has been suggested to reduce potential overestimation of cumulative incidence in populations where the risk of competing events is high. The objective was to evaluate and illustrate the clinical impact of competing risk adjustment when deriving a CVD prediction model in a high-risk population.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Individuals with established atherosclerotic CVD were included from the Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-Secondary Manifestations of ARTerial disease (UCC-SMART). In 8355 individuals, followed for a median of 8.2 years (IQR 4.2-12.5), two similar prediction models for the estimation of 10-year residual CVD risk were derived: with competing risk adjustment using a Fine and Gray model and without competing risk adjustment using a Cox proportional hazards model. On average, predictions were higher from the Cox model. The Cox model predictions overestimated the cumulative incidence [predicted-observed ratio 1.14 (95% CI 1.09-1.20)], which was most apparent in the highest risk quartiles and in older persons. Discrimination of both models was similar. When determining treatment eligibility on thresholds of predicted risks, more individuals would be treated based on the Cox model predictions. If, for example, individuals with a predicted risk > 20% were considered eligible for treatment, 34% of the population would be treated according to the Fine and Gray model predictions and 44% according to the Cox model predictions.

INTERPRETATION

Individual predictions from the model unadjusted for competing risks were higher, reflecting the different interpretations of both models. For models aiming to accurately predict absolute risks, especially in high-risk populations, competing risk adjustment must be considered.

LDL cholesterol targets rarely achieved in familial hypercholesterolemia patients: A sex and gender-specific analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Despite lipid lowering therapy (LLT), reaching LDL-C targets in patients with familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) remains challenging. Our aim was to determine attainment of LDL-C target levels and reasons for not reaching these in female and male FH patients.

METHODS

We performed a cross-sectional study of heterozygous FH patients in five hospitals in the Netherlands and Norway. Clinical characteristics and information about LLT, lipid levels and reasons for not being on LDL-C treatment target were retrospectively collected from electronic medical records.

RESULTS

We studied 3178 FH patients (53.9% women), median age 48.0 (IQR 34.0-59.9) years. Median LDL-C before treatment and on-treatment was higher in women compared to men (6.2 (IQR 5.1-7.3) and 6.0 (IQR 4.9-7.2) mmol/l (p=0.005) and 3.0 (IQR 2.4-3.8) and 2.8 (IQR 2.3-3.5) mmol/L (p<0.001)), respectively. A minority of women (26.9%) and men (28.9%) reached LDL-C target. In patients with CVD, 17.2% of women and 25.8% of men reached LDL-C target. Women received less often high-intensity statins and ezetimibe. Most common reported reasons for not achieving the LDL-C target were insufficient effect of maximum LLT (women 17.3%, men 24.3%) and side effects (women 15.2%, men 8.6%).

CONCLUSIONS

In routine practice, only a minority of women and men with FH achieved their LDL-C treatment target. Extra efforts have to be made to provide FH patients with reliable information on the safety of statins and their long-term effects on CVD risk reduction. If statin treatment is insufficient, alternative lipid lowering therapies such as ezetimibe or PCSK9-inhibitors should be considered.

Personalized lifetime prediction of survival and treatment benefit in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction: The LIFE-HF model

AIMS

Although trials have proven the group-level effectiveness of various therapies for heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), important differences in absolute effectiveness exist between individuals. We developed and validated the LIFEtime-perspective for Heart Failure (LIFE-HF) model for the prediction of individual (lifetime) risk and treatment benefit in patients with HFrEF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Cox proportional hazards functions with age as the time scale were developed in the PARADIGM-HF and ATMOSPHERE trials (n = 15 415). Outcomes were cardiovascular death, heart failure (HF) hospitalization or cardiovascular death, and non-cardiovascular mortality. Predictors were age, sex, New York Heart Association class, prior HF hospitalization, diabetes mellitus, extracardiac vascular disease, systolic blood pressure, left ventricular ejection fraction, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, and glomerular filtration rate. The functions were combined in life-tables to predict individual overall and HF hospitalization-free survival. External validation was performed in the SwedeHF registry, ASIAN-HF registry, and DAPA-HF trial (n = 51 286). Calibration of 2- to 10-year risk was adequate, and c-statistics were 0.65-0.74. An interactive tool was developed combining the model with hazard ratios from trials to allow estimation of an individual's (lifetime) risk and treatment benefit in clinical practice. Applying the tool to the development cohort, combined treatment with a mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist, sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor, and angiotensin receptor-neprilysin inhibitor was estimated to afford a median of 2.5 (interquartile range [IQR] 1.7-3.7) and 3.7 (IQR 2.4-5.5) additional years of overall and HF hospitalization-free survival, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The LIFE-HF model enables estimation of lifelong overall and HF hospitalization-free survival, and (lifetime) treatment benefit for individual patients with HFrEF. It could serve as a tool to improve the management of HFrEF by facilitating personalized medicine and shared decision-making.

Variability in benefit from intensive insulin therapy on cardiovascular events in individuals with type 1 diabetes: A post hoc analysis of the DCCT/EDIC study

AIM

To evaluate presence of treatment effect heterogeneity of intensive insulin therapy (INT) on occurrence of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in individuals with type 1 diabetes.

METHODS

In participants from the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial/Epidemiology of Diabetes Interventions and Complications (DCCT/EDIC) study, individual treatment effect of INT (≥3 daily insulin injections/insulin pump therapy) versus conventional therapy (once/twice daily insulin) on the risk of MACE was estimated using a penalized Cox regression model including treatment-by-covariate interaction terms.

RESULTS

In 1441 participants, 120 first MACE events were observed and 1279 individuals (89%) were predicted to benefit from INT with regard to MACE risk reduction. The study population was divided into four groups based on predicted treatment effect: one group with no predicted benefit and three tertiles with predicted treatment benefit. The median absolute reduction in 30-year risk of MACE across groups of predicted treatment effect ranged from -0.2% (i.e. risk increase; interquartile range [IQR] -0.1% to -0.3%) in the group with no predicted benefit to 6.6% (i.e. risk reduction; IQR 3.8%-10.9%; number needed to treat 15) in the highest tertile of predicted benefit. The observed benefit of preventing microvascular complications was stable across all subgroups of predicted MACE benefit.

CONCLUSIONS

Although INT reduces the risk of MACE in the majority of individuals with type 1 diabetes, benefit varies substantially. These individual differences in the effect of INT underline the necessity for a better understanding of the individual response to intensive treatment.

Improving 10-year cardiovascular risk prediction in apparently healthy people: flexible addition of risk modifiers on top of SCORE2

AIMS

In clinical practice, factors associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) like albuminuria, education level, or coronary artery calcium (CAC) are often known, but not incorporated in cardiovascular risk prediction models. The aims of the current study were to evaluate a methodology for the flexible addition of risk modifying characteristics on top of SCORE2 and to quantify the added value of several clinically relevant risk modifying characteristics.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Individuals without previous CVD or DM were included from the UK Biobank; Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC); Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA); European Prospective Investigation into Cancer, The Netherlands (EPIC-NL); and Heinz Nixdorf Recall (HNR) studies (n = 409 757) in whom 16 166 CVD events and 19 149 non-cardiovascular deaths were observed over exactly 10.0 years of follow-up. The effect of each possible risk modifying characteristic was derived using competing risk-adjusted Fine and Gray models. The risk modifying characteristics were applied to individual predictions with a flexible method using the population prevalence and the subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR) of the relevant predictor. Risk modifying characteristics that increased discrimination most were CAC percentile with 0.0198 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.0115; 0.0281] and hs-Troponin-T with 0.0100 (95% CI 0.0063; 0.0137). External validation was performed in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) cohort (UK, n = 518 015, 12 675 CVD events). Adjustment of SCORE2-predicted risks with both single and multiple risk modifiers did not negatively affect calibration and led to a modest increase in discrimination [0.740 (95% CI 0.736-0.745) vs. unimproved SCORE2 risk C-index 0.737 (95% CI 0.732-0.741)].

CONCLUSION

The current paper presents a method on how to integrate possible risk modifying characteristics that are not included in existing CVD risk models for the prediction of CVD event risk in apparently healthy people. This flexible methodology improves the accuracy of predicted risks and increases applicability of prediction models for individuals with additional risk known modifiers.

Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate, Albuminuria, and Adverse Outcomes: An Individual-Participant Data Meta-Analysis

Importance

Chronic kidney disease (low estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] or albuminuria) affects approximately 14% of adults in the US.

Objective

To evaluate associations of lower eGFR based on creatinine alone, lower eGFR based on creatinine combined with cystatin C, and more severe albuminuria with adverse kidney outcomes, cardiovascular outcomes, and other health outcomes.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Individual-participant data meta-analysis of 27 503 140 individuals from 114 global cohorts (eGFR based on creatinine alone) and 720 736 individuals from 20 cohorts (eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C) and 9 067 753 individuals from 114 cohorts (albuminuria) from 1980 to 2021.

Exposures

The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration 2021 equations for eGFR based on creatinine alone and eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C; and albuminuria estimated as urine albumin to creatinine ratio (UACR).

Main Outcomes and Measures

The risk of kidney failure requiring replacement therapy, all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, acute kidney injury, any hospitalization, coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, and peripheral artery disease. The analyses were performed within each cohort and summarized with random-effects meta-analyses.

Results

Within the population using eGFR based on creatinine alone (mean age, 54 years [SD, 17 years]; 51% were women; mean follow-up time, 4.8 years [SD, 3.3 years]), the mean eGFR was 90 mL/min/1.73 m2 (SD, 22 mL/min/1.73 m2) and the median UACR was 11 mg/g (IQR, 8-16 mg/g). Within the population using eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C (mean age, 59 years [SD, 12 years]; 53% were women; mean follow-up time, 10.8 years [SD, 4.1 years]), the mean eGFR was 88 mL/min/1.73 m2 (SD, 22 mL/min/1.73 m2) and the median UACR was 9 mg/g (IQR, 6-18 mg/g). Lower eGFR (whether based on creatinine alone or based on creatinine and cystatin C) and higher UACR were each significantly associated with higher risk for each of the 10 adverse outcomes, including those in the mildest categories of chronic kidney disease. For example, among people with a UACR less than 10 mg/g, an eGFR of 45 to 59 mL/min/1.73 m2 based on creatinine alone was associated with significantly higher hospitalization rates compared with an eGFR of 90 to 104 mL/min/1.73 m2 (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.3 [95% CI, 1.2-1.3]; 161 vs 79 events per 1000 person-years; excess absolute risk, 22 events per 1000 person-years [95% CI, 19-25 events per 1000 person-years]).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this retrospective analysis of 114 cohorts, lower eGFR based on creatinine alone, lower eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C, and more severe UACR were each associated with increased rates of 10 adverse outcomes, including adverse kidney outcomes, cardiovascular diseases, and hospitalizations.

Intima-media thickness at the near or far wall of the common carotid artery in cardiovascular risk assessment

Aims

Current guidelines recommend measuring carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) at the far wall of the common carotid artery (CCA). We aimed to precisely quantify associations of near vs. far wall CCA-IMT with the risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD, defined as coronary heart disease or stroke) and their added predictive values.

Methods and results

We analysed individual records of 41 941 participants from 16 prospective studies in the Proof-ATHERO consortium {mean age 61 years [standard deviation (SD) = 11]; 53% female; 16% prior CVD}. Mean baseline values of near and far wall CCA-IMT were 0.83 (SD = 0.28) and 0.82 (SD = 0.27) mm, differed by a mean of 0.02 mm (95% limits of agreement: -0.40 to 0.43), and were moderately correlated [r = 0.44; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.39-0.49). Over a median follow-up of 9.3 years, we recorded 10 423 CVD events. We pooled study-specific hazard ratios for CVD using random-effects meta-analysis. Near and far wall CCA-IMT values were approximately linearly associated with CVD risk. The respective hazard ratios per SD higher value were 1.18 (95% CI: 1.14-1.22; I² = 30.7%) and 1.20 (1.18-1.23; I² = 5.3%) when adjusted for age, sex, and prior CVD and 1.09 (1.07-1.12; I² = 8.4%) and 1.14 (1.12-1.16; I²=1.3%) upon multivariable adjustment (all P < 0.001). Assessing CCA-IMT at both walls provided a greater C-index improvement than assessing CCA-IMT at one wall only [+0.0046 vs. +0.0023 for near (P < 0.001), +0.0037 for far wall (P = 0.006)].

Conclusions

The associations of near and far wall CCA-IMT with incident CVD were positive, approximately linear, and similarly strong. Improvement in risk discrimination was highest when CCA-IMT was measured at both walls.

Effect of adipose tissue quantity and dysfunction on the risk of cancer in individuals with and without type 2 diabetes

OBJECTIVE

To determine the role of waist circumference and metabolic dysfunction in the risk of cancer in individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and to compare this to individuals without T2D.

METHODS

Individuals with (n = 1925) and without T2D (n = 10,204) were included from the UCC-SMART cohort. Incident cancer diagnoses were obtained by linkage with the Netherlands Cancer Registry. Metabolic dysfunction was defined as ≥ 3 adapted NCEP ATP-III metabolic syndrome criteria. The effects of waist circumference and metabolic dysfunction on cancer were assessed using Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for confounders.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 8.3 years (IQR 4.2-13.1), 1740 individuals were diagnosed with cancer. Incidence rates of total cancer were 19.3 and 15.5/1000 person-years for individuals with and without T2D, respectively. In individuals without T2D, a higher waist circumference was associated with an increased risk of colorectal (per standard deviation: HR 1.23; 95%CI 1.03-1.46), urinary tract (HR 1.28; 95%CI 1.05-1.56) and total cancer (HR 1.06; 95%CI 1.02-1.13). Metabolic dysfunction was related to an increased risk of colorectal (HR 1.35; 95%CI 1.01-1.82), lung (HR 1.37; 95%CI 1.07-1.75) and total cancer (HR 1.13; 95%CI 1.01-1.25) in individuals without T2D. In individuals with T2D, no significant associations were found.

CONCLUSION

Incidence rates of cancer are higher among individuals with T2D. However, higher waist circumference and metabolic dysfunction are only associated with an increased cancer risk in patients without T2D. These findings provide novel insights into the role of metabolic dysfunction in the occurrence of cancer.

Composition and distribution of lipoproteins after evolocumab in familial dysbetalipoproteinemia: A randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Proprotein convertase subtilisin kexin type 9 (PCSK9) monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) reduce fasting and post fat load cholesterol in non-HDL and intermediate density lipoprotein (IDL) in familial dysbetalipoproteinemia (FD). However, the effect of PCSK9 mAbs on the distribution and composition of atherogenic lipoproteins in patients with FD is unknown.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the effect of the PCSK9 mAb evolocumab added to standard lipid-lowering therapy in patients with FD on fasting and post fat load lipoprotein distribution and composition.

METHODS

Randomized placebo-controlled double-blind crossover trial comparing evolocumab (140 mg subcutaneous every 2 weeks) with placebo during two 12-week treatment periods. Patients received an oral fat load at the start and end of each treatment period. Apolipoproteins (apo) were measured with ultracentrifugation, gradient gel electrophoresis, retinyl palmitate and SDS-PAGE.

RESULTS

PCSK9 mAbs significantly reduced particle number of all atherogenic lipoproteins, with a stronger effect on smaller lipoproteins than on larger lipoproteins (e.g. IDL-apoB 49%, 95%confidence interval (CI) 41-59 and very low-density lipoprotein (VLDL)-apoB 33%, 95%CI 16-50). Furthermore, PCSK9 mAbs lowered cholesterol more than triglyceride (TG) in VLDL, IDL and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) (e.g. VLDL-C 48%, 95%CI 29-63%; and VLDL-TG 20%, 95%CI 6.3-41%). PCSK9 mAbs did not affect the post fat load response of chylomicrons.

CONCLUSION

PCSK9 mAbs added to standard lipid-lowering therapy in FD patients significantly reduced lipoprotein particle number, in particular the smaller and more cholesterol-rich lipoproteins (i.e. IDL and LDL). PCSK9 mAbs did not affect chylomicron metabolism. It seems likely that the observed effects are achieved by increased hepatic lipoprotein clearance, but the specific working mechanism of PCSK9 mAbs in FD patients remains to be elucidated.

C-Reactive Protein and Risk of Incident Heart Failure in Patients With Cardiovascular Disease

BACKGROUND

Patients with established cardiovascular disease (CVD) are at high risk of incident heart failure (HF), which may in part reflect the impact of systemic inflammation.

OBJECTIVES

The goal of this study was to determine the association between C-reactive protein (CRP) and incident HF in patients with established CVD.

METHODS

Patients from the prospective UCC-SMART (Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease) cohort with established CVD, but without prevalent HF were included (n = 8,089). Incident HF was defined as a first hospitalization for HF. The association between baseline CRP and incident HF was assessed using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for established risk factors (ie, age, sex, myocardial infarction, smoking, diabetes mellitus, body mass index, blood pressure, cholesterol, and kidney function).

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 9.7 years (IQR 5.4-14.1 years), 810 incident HF cases were observed (incidence rate 1.01/100 person-years). Higher CRP was independently associated with an increased risk of incident HF: HR per 1 mg/L: 1.10 (95% CI: 1.07-1.13), and for last vs first CRP quartile: 2.22 (95% CI: 1.76-2.79). The association was significant for both HF with reduced (HR: 1.09; 95% CI: 1.04-1.14) and preserved ejection fraction (HR: 1.12; 95% CI: 1.07-1.18) (P for difference = 0.137). Additional adjustment for medication use and interim myocardial infarction did not attenuate the association, and the association remained consistent beyond 15 years after the CRP measurement.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with established CVD, CRP is an independent risk marker of incident HF. These data support ongoing trial efforts to assess whether anti-inflammatory agents can reduce the burden of HF.

SCORE2-Diabetes: 10-year cardiovascular risk estimation in type 2 diabetes in Europe

AIMS

To develop and validate a recalibrated prediction model (SCORE2-Diabetes) to estimate the 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in individuals with type 2 diabetes in Europe.

METHODS AND RESULTS

SCORE2-Diabetes was developed by extending SCORE2 algorithms using individual-participant data from four large-scale datasets comprising 229 460 participants (43 706 CVD events) with type 2 diabetes and without previous CVD. Sex-specific competing risk-adjusted models were used including conventional risk factors (i.e. age, smoking, systolic blood pressure, total, and HDL-cholesterol), as well as diabetes-related variables (i.e. age at diabetes diagnosis, glycated haemoglobin [HbA1c] and creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR]). Models were recalibrated to CVD incidence in four European risk regions. External validation included 217 036 further individuals (38 602 CVD events), and showed good discrimination, and improvement over SCORE2 (C-index change from 0.009 to 0.031). Regional calibration was satisfactory. SCORE2-Diabetes risk predictions varied several-fold, depending on individuals' levels of diabetes-related factors. For example, in the moderate-risk region, the estimated 10-year CVD risk was 11% for a 60-year-old man, non-smoker, with type 2 diabetes, average conventional risk factors, HbA1c of 50 mmol/mol, eGFR of 90 mL/min/1.73 m2, and age at diabetes diagnosis of 60 years. By contrast, the estimated risk was 17% in a similar man, with HbA1c of 70 mmol/mol, eGFR of 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, and age at diabetes diagnosis of 50 years. For a woman with the same characteristics, the risk was 8% and 13%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

SCORE2-Diabetes, a new algorithm developed, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of CVD in individuals with type 2 diabetes, enhances identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe.

C-Reactive Protein and Risk of Cardiovascular Events and Mortality in Patients with Various Cardiovascular Disease Locations

Anti-inflammatory drugs reduce the risk of cardiovascular events in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD), but less is known about the relation between inflammation and outcomes in patients with cerebrovascular disease (CeVD), peripheral artery disease (PAD), and abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). This study assessed the association between C-reactive protein (CRP) and clinical outcomes in patients with CAD (n = 4,517), CeVD (n = 2,154), PAD (n = 1,154), and AAA (n = 424) from the prospective Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease study. The primary outcome was recurrent cardiovascular disease (CVD), defined as myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, or cardiovascular death. Secondary outcomes were major adverse limb events and all-cause mortality. Associations between baseline CRP and outcomes were assessed using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for age, sex, smoking, diabetes mellitus, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and glomerular filtration rate. Results were stratified by CVD location. During a median follow-up of 9.5 years, 1,877 recurrent CVD events, 887 major adverse limb events, and 2,341 deaths were observed. CRP was independently associated with recurrent CVD (hazard ratio [HR] per 1 mg/L 1.08, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05 to 1.10), and all secondary outcomes. Compared with the first quintile of CRP, HRs for recurrent CVD were 1.60 (95% CI 1.35 to 1.89) for the last quintile ≤10 mg/L and 1.90 (95% CI 1.58 to 2.29) for the subgroup with CRP >10 mg/L. CRP was associated with recurrent CVD in patients with CAD (HR per 1 mg/L 1.08, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.11), CeVD (HR 1.05, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.10), PAD (HR 1.08, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.13), and AAA (HR 1.08, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.15). The association between CRP and all-cause mortality was stronger for patients with CAD (HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.16) than for patients with other CVD locations (HRs 1.06 to 1.08; p = 0.002). Associations remained consistent beyond 15 years after the CRP measurement. In conclusion, greater CRP is independently associated with an increased risk of recurrent CVD and mortality, irrespective of previous CVD location.

Temporal Trends and Determinants of Stroke Risk in Patients With Medically Treated Asymptomatic Carotid Stenosis

BACKGROUND

Effectiveness of carotid procedures (surgery and stenting) in patients with asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis (ACAS) depends on the absolute risk reduction that patients might receive from these procedures. We aimed to quantify the risk of ipsilateral ischemic stroke and examined temporal trends and determinants of these risks in patients with ACAS treated conservatively.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review from inception to March 9, 2023, of peer-reviewed trials and cohort studies describing ipsilateral ischemic stroke risk in medically treated patients with ACAS of ≥50%. Risk of bias was assessed with an adapted version of the Quality in Prognosis Studies tool. We calculated the annual incidence rates of ipsilateral ischemic stroke. We explored temporal trends and associations of sex and degree of stenosis with ipsilateral ischemic stroke using Poisson metaregression analysis and incidence rate ratios, respectively.

RESULTS

After screening 5915 reports, 73 studies describing ipsilateral ischemic stroke rates of 28 625 patients with midyear of recruitment ranging from 1976 to 2014 were included. The incidence of ipsilateral ischemic stroke was 0.98 (95% CI, 0.93-1.04) per 100 patient-years (median duration of follow-up, 3.3 years). The incidence decreased 24% with every 5 years more recent midyear of recruitment (rate ratio, 0.76 [95% CI, 0.73-0.78]). Incidence rates of ipsilateral ischemic stroke were lower in female patients (rate ratio, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.63-0.87]) and in patients with moderate versus severe stenosis when assessed in cohort studies, with incidence rate ratios of 0.41 ([95% CI, 0.35-0.49] cutoff, 70%) and 0.42 ([95% CI, 0.30-0.59] cutoff, 80%).

CONCLUSIONS

Reported risks of ipsilateral ischemic stroke in patients with ACAS have declined 24% every 5 years from mid-1970s onward, further challenging the routine use of carotid procedures. Risks were lower in female patients and more than twice as high with severe compared with moderate ACAS. Inclusion of these findings in individualized risk assessment can help to determine the benefit of carotid procedures in selected individual patients with ACAS.

REGISTRATION

URL: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/; Unique identifier: CRD42021222940.

External validation of bleeding risk models for the prediction of long-term bleeding risk in patients with established cardiovascular disease

OBJECTIVE

The long-term predictive performance of existing bleeding risk models in patients with various manifestations of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is not well known. This study aims to assess and compare the performance of relevant existing bleeding risk models in estimating the long-term risk of major bleeding in a cohort of patients with established CVD.

METHODS

Seven existing bleeding risk models (PRECISE-DAPT, DAPT, Ducrocq et al, de Vries et al, S₂TOP-BLEED, Intracranial B₂LEED₃S and HAS-BLED) were identified and externally validated in 7,249 patients with established CVD included in the Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-second manifestations of arterial disease study. Predictive performance was assessed in terms of discrimination and calibration, both at 10 years and the original prediction horizon of the models. Major bleeding was defined as Bleeding Academic Research Consortium type 3 or 5.

RESULTS

After a median follow-up of 8.4 years (interquartile range 4.5-12.5), a total of 233 (3.2%) major bleeding events occurred. C-statistics for discrimination at 10 years ranged from 0.53 (95%CI 0.49-0.57) to 0.64 (95%CI 0.60-0.68). Calibration plots after recalibration to 10 years showed best agreement between predicted and observed bleeding risk for De Vries et al, S₂TOP-BLEED, DAPT and PRECISE-DAPT.

CONCLUSIONS

The performance of existing bleeding risk models to predict long-term bleeding in patients with CVD varied. Discrimination and calibration were best for the models of de Vries et al, S₂TOP-BLEED, DAPT and PRECISE-DAPT. Of these, recalibrated models requiring the least predictors may be preferred for use to personalize prevention with antithrombotic therapy.

Physical exercise volume, type, and intensity and risk of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular events in patients with cardiovascular disease: a mediation analysis

Aims

To estimate the relation between physical exercise volume, type, and intensity with all-cause mortality and recurrent vascular events in patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and to quantify to what extent traditional cardiovascular risk factors mediate these relations.

Methods and results

In the prospective UCC-SMART cohort (N = 8660), the associations of clinical endpoints and physical exercise volume (metabolic equivalent of task hours per week, METh/wk), type (endurance vs. endurance + resistance), and intensity (moderate vs. vigorous) were estimated using multivariable-adjusted Cox models. The proportion mediated effect (PME) through body mass index, systolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, insulin sensitivity, and systemic inflammation was assessed using structural equation models. Sixty-one percent of patients (73% male, age 61 ± 10 years, >70% receiving lipid-lowering and blood pressure-lowering medications) reported that they did not exercise. Over a median follow-up of 9.5 years [interquartile range (IQR) 5.1-14.0], 2256 deaths and 1828 recurrent vascular events occurred. The association between exercise volume had a reverse J-shape with a nadir at 29 (95% CI 24-29) METh/wk, corresponding with a HR 0.56 (95% CI 0.48-0.64) for all-cause mortality and HR 0.63 (95% CI 0.55-0.73) for recurrent vascular events compared with no exercise. Up to 38% (95% CI 24-61) of the association was mediated through the assessed risk factors of which insulin sensitivity (PME up to 12%, 95% CI 5-25) and systemic inflammation (PME up to 18%, 95% CI 9-37) were the most important.

Conclusion

Regular physical exercise is significantly related with reduced risks of all-cause mortality and recurrent vascular events in patients with CVD. In this population with high rates of lipid-lowering and blood pressure--lowering medication use, exercise benefits were mainly mediated through systemic inflammation and insulin resistance.

[The PROMINENT trial: swan song of the fibrates]

Post hoc analyses of previous fibrate trials have suggested that individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus with high triglyceride levels and low HDL-cholesterol levels benefit from fibrate therapy even when the overall trial results were neutral. However the PROMINENT (Pemafibrate to Reduce Cardiovascular Outcomes by Reducing Triglycerides in Patients with Diabetes) trial seems to close the door for fibrates. The trial found that fibrates do not reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease among individuals with type 2 diabetes and high triglyceride levels and low HDL cholesterol levels, despite triglyceride lowering. The results of PROMINENT suggest that triglyceride lowering without decreases in the plasma concentration of atherogenic lipoproteins are unlikely to decrease the risk of cardiovascular disease. These results also highlight the importance of rigorously confirmation of post hoc findings before implementation in clinical practice.

Major cardiovascular events and subsequent risk of kidney failure with replacement therapy: a CKD Prognosis Consortium study

AIMS

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) increases risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Less is known about how CVD associates with future risk of kidney failure with replacement therapy (KFRT).

METHODS AND RESULTS

The study included 25 903 761 individuals from the CKD Prognosis Consortium with known baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and evaluated the impact of prevalent and incident coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, heart failure (HF), and atrial fibrillation (AF) events as time-varying exposures on KFRT outcomes. Mean age was 53 (standard deviation 17) years and mean eGFR was 89 mL/min/1.73 m2, 15% had diabetes and 8.4% had urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) available (median 13 mg/g); 9.5% had prevalent CHD, 3.2% prior stroke, 3.3% HF, and 4.4% prior AF. During follow-up, there were 269 142 CHD, 311 021 stroke, 712 556 HF, and 605 596 AF incident events and 101 044 (0.4%) patients experienced KFRT. Both prevalent and incident CVD were associated with subsequent KFRT with adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of 3.1 [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.9-3.3], 2.0 (1.9-2.1), 4.5 (4.2-4.9), 2.8 (2.7-3.1) after incident CHD, stroke, HF and AF, respectively. HRs were highest in first 3 months post-CVD incidence declining to baseline after 3 years. Incident HF hospitalizations showed the strongest association with KFRT [HR 46 (95% CI: 43-50) within 3 months] after adjustment for other CVD subtype incidence.

CONCLUSION

Incident CVD events strongly and independently associate with future KFRT risk, most notably after HF, then CHD, stroke, and AF. Optimal strategies for addressing the dramatic risk of KFRT following CVD events are needed.

Metabolic syndrome and risk of incident heart failure in non-diabetic patients with established cardiovascular disease

BACKGROUND

In patients with established cardiovascular disease (CVD), the relation between metabolic syndrome (MetS) and incident heart failure (HF) in the absence of diabetes mellitus (DM) is largely unknown. This study assessed this relation in non-diabetic patients with established CVD.

METHODS

Patients from the prospective UCC-SMART cohort with established CVD, but without DM or HF at baseline were included (n = 4653). MetS was defined according to the Adult Treatment Panel III criteria. Insulin resistance was quantified using the homeostasis model of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR). The outcome was a first hospitalization for HF. Relations were assessed using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for established risk factors: age, sex, prior myocardial infarction (MI), smoking, cholesterol, and kidney function.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 8.0 years, 290 cases of incident HF were observed (0.81/100 person years). MetS was significantly related to an increased risk of incident HF independent of established risk factors (hazard ratio [HR] 1.32; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04-1.68, HR per criterion 1.17; 95% CI 1.06-1.29), as was HOMA-IR (HR per standard deviation [SD] 1.15; 95% CI 1.03-1.29). Of the individual MetS components, only higher waist circumference independently increased the risk of HF (HR per SD 1.34; 95% CI 1.17-1.53). Relations were independent of the occurrence of interim DM and MI, and were not significantly different for HF with reduced vs preserved ejection fraction.

CONCLUSION

In CVD patients without a current diagnosis of DM, MetS and insulin resistance increase the risk of incident HF independent of established risk factors.

Cohort profile: the Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-Second Manifestations of Arterial Disease (UCC-SMART) Study-an ongoing prospective cohort study of patients at high cardiovascular risk in the Netherlands

PURPOSE

The Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-Second Manifestations of Arterial Disease (UCC-SMART) Study is an ongoing prospective single-centre cohort study with the aim to assess important determinants and the prognosis of cardiovascular disease progression. This article provides an update of the rationale, design, included patients, measurements and findings from the start in 1996 to date.

PARTICIPANTS

The UCC-SMART Study includes patients aged 18-90 years referred to the University Medical Center Utrecht, the Netherlands, for management of cardiovascular disease (CVD) or severe cardiovascular risk factors. Since September 1996, a total of 14 830 patients have been included. Upon inclusion, patients undergo a standardised screening programme, including questionnaires, vital signs, laboratory measurements, an ECG, vascular ultrasound of carotid arteries and aorta, ankle-brachial index and ultrasound measurements of adipose tissue, kidney size and intima-media thickness. Outcomes of interest are collected through annual questionnaires and adjudicated by an endpoint committee.

FINDINGS TO DATE

By May 2022, the included patients contributed to a total follow-up time of over 134 000 person-years. During follow-up, 2259 patients suffered a vascular endpoint (including non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke and vascular death) and 2794 all-cause deaths, 943 incident cases of diabetes and 2139 incident cases of cancer were observed up until January 2020. The UCC-SMART cohort contributed to over 350 articles published in peer-reviewed journals, including prediction models recommended by the 2021 European Society of Cardiology CVD prevention guidelines.

FUTURE PLANS

The UCC-SMART Study guarantees an infrastructure for research in patients at high cardiovascular risk. The cohort will continue to include about 600 patients yearly and follow-up will be ongoing to ensure an up-to-date cohort in accordance with current healthcare and scientific knowledge. In the near future, UCC-SMART will be enriched by echocardiography, and a food frequency questionnaire at baseline enabling the assessment of associations between nutrition and CVD and diabetes.

Unexploited potential of risk factor treatment in patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease

BACKGROUND

Most patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease remain at (very) high risk for recurrent events due to suboptimal risk factor control.

AIM

This study aimed to quantify the potential of maximal risk factor treatment on ten-year and lifetime risk of recurrent atherosclerotic cardiovascular events in patients one year after a coronary event.

METHODS

Pooled data from six studies: RESPONSE 1 and 2, OPTICARE, EUROASPIRE IV and V and HELIUS. Patients aged ≥45 years at ≥6 months after coronary event were included. The SMART-REACH score was used to estimate ten-year and lifetime risk of recurrent atherosclerotic cardiovascular events with current treatment, and potential risk reduction and gains in event-free years with maximal treatment (lifestyle and pharmacological).

RESULTS

In 3,230 atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease patients (24% women), at median (IQR) 1.1 years (1.0-1.8) after index event, ten-year risk was median (IQR) 20% (15%-27%) and lifetime risk 54% (47-63). Whereas 70% used conventional medication, 82% had ≥1 drug-modifiable risk factor not on target. Furthermore, 91% had ≥1 lifestyle-related risk factor not on target. Maximising therapy was associated with a potential reduction of median (IQR) ten-year risk to 6% (4%-8%) and of lifetime risk to 20% (15%-27%), and a median (IQR) gain of 7.3 (5.4-10.4) ASCVD event-free years.

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, maximising current, guideline-based preventive therapy has the potential to mitigate a large part of their risk of recurrent events and to add a clinically important number of event-free years to their lifetime.

Cardiovascular risk and lifetime benefit from preventive treatment in type 2 diabetes: A post hoc analysis of the CAPTURE study

AIM

To assess the potential gain in the number of life-years free of a (recurrent) cardiovascular disease (CVD) event with optimal cardiovascular risk management (CVRM) and initiation of glucose-lowering agents with proven cardiovascular benefit in people with type 2 diabetes (T2D).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

9,416 individuals with T2D from the CAPTURE study, a non-interventional, cross-sectional, multinational study, were included. The diabetes lifetime-perspective prediction model was used for calculating individual 10-year and lifetime CVD risk. The distribution of preventive medication use was assessed according to predicted CVD risk and stratified for history of CVD. For the estimation of absolute individual benefit from lifelong preventive treatment, including optimal CVRM and the addition of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs) and sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT-2is), the model was combined with treatment effects from current evidence.

RESULTS

GLP-1 RA or SGLT-2i use did not greatly differ between patients with and without CVD history, while use of blood pressure-lowering medication, statins and aspirin was more frequent in patients with CVD. Mean (standard deviation [SD]) lifetime benefit from optimal CVRM was 3.9 (3.0) and 1.3 (1.9) years in patients with and without established CVD, respectively. Further addition of a GLP-1 RA and an SGLT-2i in patients with CVD gave an added mean (SD) lifetime benefit of 1.2 (0.6) years.

CONCLUSIONS

Life-years gained free of (recurrent) CVD by optimal CVRM and the addition of a GLP-1 RA or aSGLT-2i is dependent on baseline CVD status. These results aid individualizing prevention and promote shared decision-making in patients with T2D.

Long-term efficacy and safety of inclisiran in patients with high cardiovascular risk and elevated LDL cholesterol (ORION-3): results from the 4-year open-label extension of the ORION-1 trial

INTRODUCTION

Whether long-term treatment with the twice-yearly, siRNA therapeutic inclisiran, which reduces hepatic production of proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9), results in sustained reductions in LDL cholesterol with an acceptable safety profile is not known. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of long-term dosing of inclisiran in patients with high cardiovascular risk and elevated LDL cholesterol.

METHODS

ORION-3 was a 4-year open-label extension study of the placebo-controlled, phase 2 ORION-1 trial, conducted at 52 sites across five countries. Patients with prevalent atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease or high-risk primary prevention and elevated LDL cholesterol despite maximally tolerated statins or other LDL-lowering treatments, or with documented statin intolerance, who had completed the ORION-1 trial were eligible. Patients receiving inclisiran in ORION-1 received twice-yearly 300 mg subcutaneous inclisiran sodium throughout ORION-3 (inclisiran-only arm), whereas patients receiving placebo in ORION-1 first received subcutaneous evolocumab 140 mg every 2 weeks until day 360 thereafter transitioning to inclisiran twice-yearly for the remainder of ORION-3 study (switching arm). The primary efficacy endpoint was the percentage change in LDL cholesterol with inclisiran from the start of ORION-1 through to day 210 of the open label extension phase in the inclisiran-only arm (approximately 570 days of total inclisiran exposure in the modified intention-to-treat population). Secondary and exploratory endpoints included changes in LDL-C cholesterol and PCSK9 concentrations levels up to day 1440 (4 years) in each arm, and safety. ORION-3 is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03060577.

FINDINGS

Of the original ORION-1 cohort of 497 patients, 290 of 370 patients allocated to drug continued into the inclisiran-only arm and 92 of 127 patients allocated to placebo entered the switching-arm in the ORION-3 extension study conducted between March 24, 2017, and Dec 17, 2021. In the inclisiran-only arm, LDL cholesterol was reduced by 47·5% (95% CI 50·7-44·3) at day 210 and sustained over 1440 days. The 4-year averaged mean reduction of LDL-C cholesterol was 44·2% (95% CI: 47·1-41·4), with reductions in PCSK9 ranging from 62·2% to 77·8%. Adverse events at the injection site were reported in 39 (14%) of 284 patients in the inclisiran-only arm and 12 (14%) of 87 patients in the switching arm. The incidence of treatment-emergent serious adverse events possibly related to the study drug was 1% (three of 284) in the inclisiran-only arm and 1% (one of 87) in the switching arm.

INTERPRETATION

Twice-yearly inclisiran provided sustained reductions in LDL cholesterol and PCSK9 concentrations and was well tolerated over 4 years in the extension study. This is the first prospective long-term study to assess repeat hepatic exposure to inclisiran.

FUNDING

Novartis Pharma.

Recurrent venous thromboembolism and bleeding with extended anticoagulation: the VTE-PREDICT risk score

AIMS

Deciding to stop or continue anticoagulation for venous thromboembolism (VTE) after initial treatment is challenging, as individual risks of recurrence and bleeding are heterogeneous. The present study aimed to develop and externally validate models for predicting 5-year risks of recurrence and bleeding in patients with VTE without cancer who completed at least 3 months of initial treatment, which can be used to estimate individual absolute benefits and harms of extended anticoagulation.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Competing risk-adjusted models were derived to predict recurrent VTE and clinically relevant bleeding (non-major and major) using 14 readily available patient characteristics. The models were derived from combined individual patient data from the Bleeding Risk Study, Hokusai-VTE, PREFER-VTE, RE-MEDY, and RE-SONATE (n = 15,141, 220 recurrences, 189 bleeding events). External validity was assessed in the Danish VTE cohort, EINSTEIN-CHOICE, GARFIELD-VTE, MEGA, and Tromsø studies (n = 59 257, 2283 recurrences, 3335 bleeding events). Absolute treatment effects were estimated by combining the models with hazard ratios from trials and meta-analyses. External validation in different settings showed agreement between predicted and observed risks up to 5 years, with C-statistics ranging from 0.48-0.71 (recurrence) and 0.61-0.68 (bleeding). In the Danish VTE cohort, 5-year risks ranged from 4% to 19% for recurrent VTE and 1% -19% for bleeding.

CONCLUSION

The VTE-PREDICT risk score can be applied to estimate the effect of extended anticoagulant treatment for individual patients with VTE and to support shared decision-making.

Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol measurement in Familial Dysbetalipoproteinemia

AIM

To compare LDL-C concentrations using the Friedewald formula, the Martin-Hopkins formula, a direct assay and polyacrylamide gradient gel electrophoresis (PGGE) to the reference standard density gradient ultracentrifugation in patients with Familial Dysbetalipoproteinemia (FD) patients. We also compared non-HDL-cholesterol concentrations by two methods.

METHODS

For this study data from 28 patients with genetically confirmed FD from the placebo arm of the EVOLVE-FD trial were used. Four different methods for determining LDL-C were compared with ultracentrifugation. Non-HDL-C was measured with standard assays and compared to ultracentrifugation. Correlation coefficients and Bland-Altman plots were used to compare the methods.

RESULTS

Mean age of the 28 FD patients was 62 ± 9 years, 43 % were female and 93 % had an ɛ2ɛ2 genotype. LDL-C determined by Friedewald (R² = 0.62, p <0.01), Martin-Hopkins (R² = 0.50, p = 0.01) and the direct assay (R² = 0.41, p = 0.03) correlated with density gradient ultracentrifugation. However, Bland-Altman plots showed considerable over- or underestimation by the four methods compared to ultracentrifugation. Non-HDL-C showed good correlation and agreement.

CONCLUSION

In patients with FD, all four methods investigated over- or underestimated LDL-C concentrations compared with ultracentrifugation. In contrast, standard non-HDL-C assays performed well, emphasizing the use of non-HDL-C in patients with FD.

Estimating individual lifetime risk of incident cardiovascular events in adults with Type 2 diabetes: an update and geographical calibration of the DIAbetes Lifetime perspective model (DIAL2)

AIMS

The 2021 European Society of Cardiology cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines recommend the use of (lifetime) risk prediction models to aid decisions regarding intensified preventive treatment options in adults with Type 2 diabetes, e.g. the DIAbetes Lifetime perspective model (DIAL model). The aim of this study was to update the DIAL model using contemporary and representative registry data (DIAL2) and to systematically calibrate the model for use in other European countries.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The DIAL2 model was derived in 467 856 people with Type 2 diabetes without a history of CVD from the Swedish National Diabetes Register, with a median follow-up of 7.3 years (interquartile range: 4.0-10.6 years) and comprising 63 824 CVD (including fatal CVD, non-fatal stroke and non-fatal myocardial infarction) events and 66 048 non-CVD mortality events. The model was systematically recalibrated to Europe's low- and moderate-risk regions using contemporary incidence data and mean risk factor distributions. The recalibrated DIAL2 model was externally validated in 218 267 individuals with Type 2 diabetes from the Scottish Care Information-Diabetes (SCID) and Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). In these individuals, 43 074 CVD events and 27 115 non-CVD fatal events were observed. The DIAL2 model discriminated well, with C-indices of 0.732 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.726-0.739] in CPRD and 0.700 (95% CI 0.691-0.709) in SCID.

CONCLUSION

The recalibrated DIAL2 model provides a useful tool for the prediction of CVD-free life expectancy and lifetime CVD risk for people with Type 2 diabetes without previous CVD in the European low- and moderate-risk regions. These long-term individualized measures of CVD risk are well suited for shared decision-making in clinical practice as recommended by the 2021 CVD ESC prevention guidelines.

Visceral adipose tissue quantity and dysfunction and the occurrence of major bleeding in patients with established cardiovascular disease

OBJECTIVES

To determine the association between both visceral fat quantity and adipose tissue dysfunction, and major bleeding in patients with established cardiovascular disease.

METHODS

Patients from the Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease study with established cardiovascular disease were included. Visceral fat was measured using ultrasound and adipose tissue dysfunction was depicted using metabolic syndrome criteria (revised National Cholesterol Education Program). Cox regression models were fitted to study the relation with major bleeding defined as Bleeding Academic Research Consortium (BARC) type 3 or 5, or International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis (ISTH) major bleeding. Sensitivity analyses were performed using C-reactive protein levels to reflect adipose tissue dysfunction.

RESULTS

In 6927 patients during a median follow up of 9.2 years, a total of 237 BARC type 3 or 5 bleedings and 224 ISTH major bleedings were observed. Visceral fat quantity was not related to major bleeding (HR 1.01, 95%CI 0.88-1.16 for BARC type 3 or 5 bleeding and HR 1.00, 95%CI 0.87-1.15 for ISTH major bleeding), nor was metabolic syndrome (HR 0.97, 95%CI 0.75-1.26 for BARC type 3 or 5 bleeding and HR 0.98, 95%CI 0.75-1.28 for ISTH major bleeding). Sensitivity analyses using C-reactive protein levels showed similar results. No effect modification was observed by sex, antithrombotic therapy, presence of metabolic syndrome or diabetes.

CONCLUSION

In patients with cardiovascular disease, no association was found between visceral fat quantity measured with ultrasound or measures of adipose tissue dysfunction and the risk of major bleeding, irrespective of antithrombotic agent use.

Effect of evolocumab on fasting and post fat load lipids and lipoproteins in familial dysbetalipoproteinemia

BACKGROUND

Familial dysbetalipoproteinemia (FD) is the second most common monogenic lipid disorder (prevalence 1 in 850-3500), characterized by postprandial remnant accumulation and associated with increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Many FD patients do not achieve non-HDL-C treatment goals, indicating the need for additional lipid-lowering treatment options.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the effect of the PCSK9 monoclonal antibody evolocumab added to standard lipid-lowering therapy on fasting and post fat load lipids and lipoproteins in patients with FD.

METHODS

A randomized placebo-controlled double-blind crossover trial comparing evolocumab (140 mg subcutaneous every 2 weeks) with placebo during two 12-week treatment periods. At the start and end of each treatment period patients received an oral fat load. The primary endpoint was the 8-hour post fat load non-HDL-C area under the curve (AUC). Secondary endpoints included fasting and post fat load lipids and lipoproteins.

RESULTS

In total, 28 patients completed the study. Mean age was 62±9 years and 93% had an Ɛ2Ɛ2 genotype. Evolocumab reduced the 8-hour post fat load non-HDL-C AUC with 49% (95%CI 42-55) and apolipoprotein B (apoB) AUC with 47% (95%CI 41-53). Other fasting and absolute post fat load lipids and lipoproteins including triglycerides and remnant-cholesterol were also significantly reduced by evolocumab. However, evolocumab did not have significant effects on the rise above fasting levels that occurred after consumption of the oral fat load.

CONCLUSIONS

Evolocumab added to standard lipid-lowering therapy significantly reduced fasting and absolute post fat load concentrations of non-HDL-C, apoB and other atherogenic lipids and lipoproteins in FD patients. The clinically significant decrease in lipids and lipoproteins can be expected to translate into a reduction in CVD risk in these high-risk patients.

Effect of dietary patterns on cardiovascular risk factors in people with type 2 diabetes. A systematic review and network meta-analysis

AIMS

To identify the most effective dietary pattern for improving cardiovascular risk factors in people with type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

PubMed, Embase, the Cochrane library, SCOPUS and Web of Science were systematically searched for randomized controlled trials comparing the effects of dietary patterns on body weight, blood pressure, HbA1c and lipids after 6 and 12 months. Treatment effects were synthesized using Bayesian network meta-analysis. Six-month changes in HbA1c, SBP and LDL-C were used to estimate relative risk reductions (RRR) for cardiovascular events.

RESULTS

Seventy-three RCTs on eight different dietary patterns were included. All reduced body weight and HbA1c after 6 months, with the largest effects from the low carbohydrate (body weight -4.8 kg, 95 %credibility interval (95 %CrI) -6.5;-3.2 kg) and Mediterranean diet (HbA1c -1.0 %, 95 %CrI -15;-0.4 % vs usual diet). There were no significant 6-month blood pressure or lipid effects. Dietary patterns had non-statistically significant 12-months effects. The Mediterranean diet resulted in the largest expected RRR for cardiovascular events: -16 % (95 %CI -31;3.0) vs usual diet.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with type 2 diabetes, all dietary patterns outperformed usual diet in improving body weight and HbA1c after 6 months and clinically relevant cardiovascular risk reduction could be achieved. There was insufficient evidence to select one optimal dietary pattern.

Clinical characteristics do not reliably identify non-adherence in patients with uncontrolled hypertension

PURPOSE

Chemical adherence testing is a reliable method to assess adherence to antihypertensive drugs. However, it is expensive and has limited availability in clinical practice. To reduce the number and costs of chemical adherence tests, we aimed to develop and validate a clinical screening tool to identify patients with a low probability of non-adherence in patients with uncontrolled hypertension.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In 495 patients with uncontrolled hypertension referred to the University Medical Centre Utrecht (UMCU), the Netherlands, a penalised logistic regression model including seven pre-specified easy-to-measure clinical variables was derived to estimate the probability of non-adherence. Non-adherence was defined as not detecting at least one of the prescribed antihypertensive drugs in plasma or urine. Model performance and test characteristics were evaluated in 240 patients with uncontrolled hypertension referred to the Heartlands Hospital, United Kingdom.

RESULTS

Prevalence of non-adherence to antihypertensive drugs was 19% in the UMCU and 44% in the Heartlands Hospital population. After recalibration of the model's intercept, predicted probabilities agreed well with observed frequencies. The c-statistic of the model was 0.63 (95%CI 0.53-0.72). Predicted probability cut-off values of 15%-22.5% prevented testing in 5%-15% of the patients, carrying sensitivities between 97% (64-100) and 90% (80-95), and negative predictive values between 74% (10-99) and 70% (50-85).

CONCLUSION

The combination of seven clinical variables is not sufficient to reliably discriminate adherent from non-adherent individuals to safely reduce the number of chemical adherence tests. This emphasises the complex nature of non-adherence behaviour and thus the need for objective chemical adherence tests in patients with uncontrolled hypertension.

Clinical heterogeneity in monogenic chylomicronaemia

Chylomicronaemia accompanies hypertriglyceridaemia, usually due to a polygenic predisposition in combination with secondary risk factors. Monogenic chylomicronaemia represents a small subgroup of patients with hypertriglyceridaemia. This article describes three patients and illustrates the heterogeneity in the presentation of monogenic chylomicronaemia. The first case is a man with mild hypertriglyceridaemia who is a compound heterozygote for two variants in the LMF1 gene, without relevant medical history. The second case is a woman who is a double heterozygote of variants in the LPL and APOA5 genes. She experienced pancreatitis. The third case is a man, with recurrent pancreatitis attributed to severe hypertriglyceridaemia and homozygous for a variant in the APOC2 gene. This article highlights that in patients with hypertriglyceridaemia, the absence of pancreatitis or the presence of mild hypertriglyceridaemia does not exclude monogenic chylomicronaemia. Genetic screening should be considered in patients with unexplained or severe hypertriglyceridaemia, to determine appropriate treatment and follow-up.

[An abnormal lipid profile: when to perform additional research for a genetic cause?]

Abnormalities in the lipid profile are common, but it is often not easy to determine their cause. After exclusion of secondary causes, a primary (genetic) cause of dyslipidaemia should be considered. The most common monogenic dyslipidaemia is familial hypercholesterolemia (FH), but there are other clinically relevant genetic dyslipidaemias, including familial dysbetalipoproteinaemia (FD), monogenic chylomicronaemia and hypoalphalipoproteinemia. It is important to make a genetic diagnosis because it may influence the prognosis of the patient, for determining appropriate treatment goals and because it is relevant for family members. This clinical viewpoint explains the diagnostic process of genetic dyslipidaemias using two cases.

Leisure-time and occupational physical activity and health outcomes in cardiovascular disease

Objective

In healthy populations, leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) improves health outcomes, while, paradoxically, occupational physical activity (OPA) is associated with detrimental health effects. This study aimed to investigate the associations of LTPA and OPA with mortality, cardiovascular events and type 2 diabetes (T2D) in patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD).

Methods

In 7058 outpatients with CVD (age 61±10 years, 75% male) from the prospective Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease cohort, Cox models were used to quantify the associations between self-reported LTPA and OPA and all-cause mortality, cardiovascular events and T2D.

Results

Over 8.6 years (IQR: 4.6–12.5) of follow-up, 1088 vascular events, 1254 deaths and 447 incident T2D cases occurred. The top LTPA quarter had a lower risk of all-cause mortality (HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.54 to 0.74), recurrent cardiovascular events (HR 0.72, 95% CI 0.60 to 0.84) and incident T2D (HR 0.71, 95% CI 0.55 to 0.93), compared with the lowest quarter. The continuous LTPA associations were reverse J-shaped for all-cause mortality and vascular events and linear for T2D. OPA (heavy manual vs sedentary) showed a trend towards an increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR 1.08, 95% CI 0.86 to 1.35), cardiovascular events (HR 1.15, 95% CI 0.91 to 1.45) and T2D (HR 1.04, 95% CI 0.72 to 1.50). The detrimental effects of higher OPA were more pronounced in men, never-smokers, people with higher education and active employment.

Conclusions

In patients with CVD, LTPA was associated with lower risk of all-cause mortality, recurrent cardiovascular events and incident T2D. In contrast, OPA seemed to increase the risk of these outcomes. These findings support the existence of a physical activity paradox in patients with CVD.

Cardiovascular mortality risk beyond 10 years in men and women; long-term follow-up from the EPIC-Norfolk prospective population study

Introduction

Current primary prevention strategies in cardiovascular (CV) disease focus on initiating preventive interventions in people at high 10-year risk of CV mortality. However, initiating such strategies should be beneficial not only in the first 10 years, but throughout life. Established risk algorithms estimate the risk of 10-year CV mortality, but limited evidence is available about the relationship between 10-year and longer-term CV mortality.

Purpose

To compare cumulative incidence of CV mortality in a population cohort at 10- and 20-years follow-up, stratified by sex.

Methods

We analysed CV mortality at 10-years and 20-years follow-up using Kaplan-Meier estimates among men and women aged 39–70 years without baseline CV disease or diabetes mellitus in the large, prospective population-based EPIC-Norfolk cohort. CV mortality included death with as underlying or contributing cause ischaemic heart disease, heart failure, cerebrovascular disease or peripheral artery disease.

Results

We analysed data from 20,453 participants (56% women), with a mean age of 56±8 years, and median (IQR) follow-up of 22 (21–23) years. At baseline, there were no clinically relevant differences in CV risk factors between men and women. Overall cumulative CV mortality rate was 1.9% (384 deaths) in the first 10 years, and 7.3% (995 deaths) at 20 years follow-up (ratio 3.8). Among men, 10-year CV mortality was 2.9% (249 deaths), and 9.6% (785 deaths) at 20 years follow-up (ratio 3.3). Among women, CV mortality was 1.2% (135 deaths) at 10 year and 5.5% (594 deaths) at 20 years follow-up (ratio 4.6).

Conclusion

We observed an incremental increase in CV mortality beyond the 10-year scope of current established CV risk algorithms. At 20 years follow-up, CV mortality rates were 3–5 times higher compared with the first decade, indicating that 20-year CV mortality risk for both men and women cannot simply be estimated based on extrapolation of 10-year risk.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): EPIC-Norfolk is supported by programme grants from the Medical Research Council UK (MRC G0401527, MRC G0701863, MRC G1000143) and Cancer Research UK (CRUK 8257).

Effect of diet and lifestyle on the relationship between body mass index and waist circumference and cardiovascular mortality in myocardial infarction patients from the Alpha Omega Cohort

Introduction

The associations between measures of body adiposity body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality have been frequently studied and usually follow a J-shaped curve or show a positive relationship. However, less is known about the influence of diet and physical activity on these associations.

Purpose

We aimed to gain insight in potential lifestyle-related effect modifiers of the association of BMI and WC with CVD mortality in myocardial infarction (MI) patients.

Methods

We included 4,837 Dutch patients from the Alpha Omega Cohort with a MI &lt;10 y prior enrolment. BMI and WC were assessed at baseline (2002–2006). Patients were followed through December 2018 for vital status and cause-specific mortality. Continuous associations of BMI and WC with CVD mortality were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models with restricted cubic splines. A BMI of 25 kg/m2 and a WC of 100 cm were used as the references. Age and sex adjusted associations were stratified for diet quality and physical activity level and interaction terms were calculated.

Results

Of the study population (69.0±5.6 y), 17% smoked, 21% had diabetes, 22% were female and &gt;85% used any type of cardiovascular medication. During a median follow-up of 12.4 years [8.5–13.8], 1,010 deaths occurred due to CVD. A J-shaped continuous association was observed between BMI and CVD mortality with inverse associations for a BMI between 25–30 kg/m2, compared to 25 kg/m2. The nadir (HR, 95% CI) was 27.4 kg/m2 (HR: 0.94, 95% CI: 0.88, 1.00) (A). For WC, a non-linear association was observed with CVD mortality with higher mortality risks for a WC above 100 cm (A). Results were similar in patients with low versus high diet quality and in patients with low versus high physical activity (B), interaction terms were not significant (all p&gt;0.55).

Conclusion

In MI patients, a BMI between 25–30 kg/m2 was associated with the lowest risk of CVD mortality. A WC above 100 cm was associated with a higher CVD mortality risk. The observed associations manifested independently of diet quality and physical activity level. Therefore, body adiposity seems to determine CVD mortality risk independently of underlying lifestyle factors.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): Regio Deal Foodvalley

Prediction of lifetime cardiovascular risk and individual lifetime treatment benefit in four European risk regions: geographic recalibration of the LIFE-CVD model

Background

The life expectancy free of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in individuals without previous CVD can be estimated with the LIFEtime-perspective CardioVascular Disease (LIFE-CVD) model, as recommended by the 2021 ESC CVD prevention guidelines. Our aim was to systematically recalibrate the LIFE-CVD model to four European risk regions using contemporary and representative registry data.

Methods and results

The LIFE-CVD model was systematically recalibrated to four distinct risk regions within Europe, using representative aggregate data on age- and sex-specific expected CVD and non-CVD mortality incidences and risk factor distributions. For external validation, 1,451,077 individuals without previous CVD were included from seven European cohorts, with 53,721 CVD events and 62,902 non-CVD deaths during follow up. After applying the recalibrated risk prediction models to external validation cohorts, C-indices (figure 1) ranged from 0.670 (95% CI 0.650–0.690) to 0.787 (95% CI 0.785–0.789). Predicted risks matched the observed risks in the CPRD data. With the recalibrated LIFE-CVD model, the estimated gain in CVD-free life expectancy from preventive therapy differed per region, for example a 50-year-old smoking women with a systolic blood pressure of 140mm Hg was estimated to gain 0.4 years of CVD-free life from 10 mm Hg SBP reduction in the low risk region, whereas this would be 1.5 years in the very high risk region (figure 2).

Interpretation

By taking into account geographical differences in CVD incidence, the recalibrated LIFE-CVD model provides a more accurate tool for the prediction of lifetime risk and CVD-free life expectancy for individuals without previous CVD, facilitating shared decision-making in cardiovascular prevention options as recommended by the 2021 European Prevention Guidelines.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.