Kindergarten Vaccination Status in California After Changes to Medical Exemption Policy

This study evaluates changes in medical exemptions and geographic distribution of kindergarteners in California not up to date on vaccination after changes to state legislation.

Excess Death Rates for Republican and Democratic Registered Voters in Florida and Ohio During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Importance

There is evidence that Republican-leaning counties have had higher COVID-19 death rates than Democratic-leaning counties and similar evidence of an association between political party affiliation and attitudes regarding COVID-19 vaccination; further data on these rates may be useful.

Objective

To assess political party affiliation and mortality rates for individuals during the initial 22 months of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Design, Setting, and Participants

A cross-sectional comparison of excess mortality between registered Republican and Democratic voters between March 2020 and December 2021 adjusted for age and state of voter registration was conducted. Voter and mortality data from Florida and Ohio in 2017 linked to mortality records for January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2021, were used in data analysis.

Exposures

Political party affiliation.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Excess weekly deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic adjusted for age, county, party affiliation, and seasonality.

Results

Between January 1, 2018, and December 31, 2021, there were 538 159 individuals in Ohio and Florida who died at age 25 years or older in the study sample. The median age at death was 78 years (IQR, 71-89 years). Overall, the excess death rate for Republican voters was 2.8 percentage points, or 15%, higher than the excess death rate for Democratic voters (95% prediction interval [PI], 1.6-3.7 percentage points). After May 1, 2021, when vaccines were available to all adults, the excess death rate gap between Republican and Democratic voters widened from -0.9 percentage point (95% PI, -2.5 to 0.3 percentage points) to 7.7 percentage points (95% PI, 6.0-9.3 percentage points) in the adjusted analysis; the excess death rate among Republican voters was 43% higher than the excess death rate among Democratic voters. The gap in excess death rates between Republican and Democratic voters was larger in counties with lower vaccination rates and was primarily noted in voters residing in Ohio.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cross-sectional study, an association was observed between political party affiliation and excess deaths in Ohio and Florida after COVID-19 vaccines were available to all adults. These findings suggest that differences in vaccination attitudes and reported uptake between Republican and Democratic voters may have been factors in the severity and trajectory of the pandemic in the US.

Understanding the Factors Influencing Health Care Provider Recommendations about Adolescent Vaccines: A Proposed Framework

Health care provider recommendations are among the most important factors influencing parents' decisions to vaccinate their adolescents. However, delivery of high-quality health care provider recommendations for vaccination is not universal. There is wide variation in the strength, timeliness and consistency of the delivery of recommendations for all adolescent vaccines. The factors that influence health care providers' recommendations are multi-level and can be conceptualized in much the same way as vaccine acceptance among parents. Health care providers are influenced by their own attitudes and beliefs about a vaccine and also by the patient they are treating and by the community in which they practice as well as state and national level vaccine policy. We propose a multi-level framework for understanding the factors that influence health care providers' recommendations at the individual, interpersonal and community level to both develop and adapt interventions to improve providers' recommendations.

Country immunization policies for refugees across 20 low-middle income and 20 high-income countries

In 2020, 26 million refugees resettled in a new country-fleeing their homes due to conflict and persecution. Due to low immunization coverage and underlying health conditions, refugees commonly face an increased risk of contracting vaccine-preventable diseases. We collected and analyzed existing routine immunization policies for refugees across 20 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and 20 high-income countries (HICs), each with the highest number of refugees per 1000 residents. Primary and secondary data sources were used to collect policy evidence. Across 20 LMICs, 13 countries specified standing nationwide routine immunization policies for refugees, while 14 out of the 20 HICs included refugees in their national routine immunization programs. LMICs and HICs should include refugees in their national routine immunization policies and provide accessible and affordable immunizations. Such efforts would reduce vaccine-preventable diseases and protect the health of refugee populations-especially during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Interventions to mitigate COVID-19 misinformation: protocol for a scoping review

BACKGROUND

The duration and impact of the COVID-19 pandemic depends in a large part on individual and societal actions which is influenced by the quality and salience of the information to which they are exposed. Unfortunately, COVID-19 misinformation has proliferated. To date, no systematic efforts have been made to evaluate interventions that mitigate COVID-19-related misinformation. We plan to conduct a scoping review that seeks to fill several of the gaps in the current knowledge of interventions that mitigate COVID-19-related misinformation.

METHODS

A scoping review focusing on interventions that mitigate COVID-19 misinformation will be conducted. We will search (from January 2020 onwards) MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, Web of Science Core Collection, Africa-Wide Information, Global Health, WHO Global Literature on Coronavirus Disease Database, WHO Global Index Medicus, and Sociological Abstracts. Gray literature will be identified using Disaster Lit, Google Scholar, Open Science Framework, governmental websites, and preprint servers (e.g., EuropePMC, PsyArXiv, MedRxiv, JMIR Preprints). Study selection will conform to Joanna Briggs Institute Reviewers' Manual 2020 Methodology for JBI Scoping Reviews. Only English language, original studies will be considered for inclusion. Two reviewers will independently screen all citations, full-text articles, and abstract data. A narrative summary of findings will be conducted. Data analysis will involve quantitative (e.g., frequencies) and qualitative (e.g., content and thematic analysis) methods.

DISCUSSION

Original research is urgently needed to design interventions to mitigate COVID-19 misinformation. The planned scoping review will help to address this gap.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATIONS

Systematic Review Registration: Open Science Framework (osf/io/etw9d).

COVID-19 vaccine perceptions in the initial phases of US vaccine roll-out: an observational study on reddit

Background

Open online forums like Reddit provide an opportunity to quantitatively examine COVID-19 vaccine perceptions early in the vaccine timeline. We examine COVID-19 misinformation on Reddit following vaccine scientific announcements, in the initial phases of the vaccine timeline.

Methods

We collected all posts on Reddit (reddit.com) from January 1 2020 - December 14 2020 (n=266,840) that contained both COVID-19 and vaccine-related keywords. We used topic modeling to understand changes in word prevalence within topics after the release of vaccine trial data. Social network analysis was also conducted to determine the relationship between Reddit communities (subreddits) that shared COVID-19 vaccine posts, and the movement of posts between subreddits.

Results

There was an association between a Pfizer press release reporting 90% efficacy and increased discussion on vaccine misinformation. We observed an association between Johnson and Johnson temporarily halting its vaccine trials and reduced misinformation. We found that information skeptical of vaccination was first posted in a subreddit (r/Coronavirus) which favored accurate information and then reposted in subreddits associated with antivaccine beliefs and conspiracy theories (e.g. conspiracy, NoNewNormal).

Conclusions

Our findings can inform the development of interventions where individuals determine the accuracy of vaccine information, and communications campaigns to improve COVID-19 vaccine perceptions, early in the vaccine timeline. Such efforts can increase individual- and population-level awareness of accurate and scientifically sound information regarding vaccines and thereby improve attitudes about vaccines, especially in the early phases of vaccine roll-out. Further research is needed to understand how social media can contribute to COVID-19 vaccination services.

JUE Insight: Distributional Impacts of Retail Vaccine Availability

We examine the potential for exploiting retailer location choice in targeting health interventions. Using geospatial data, we quantify proximity to vaccines created by a U.S. federal program distributing COVID-19 vaccines to commercial retail pharmacies. We assess the distributional impacts of a proposal to provide vaccines at Dollar General, a low-priced general merchandise retailer. Adding Dollar General to the federal program would substantially decrease the distance to vaccine sites for low-income, rural, and minority U.S. households, groups for which COVID-19 vaccine take-up has been disproportionately slow.

Promoting COVID-19 vaccine acceptance: recommendations from the Lancet Commission on Vaccine Refusal, Acceptance, and Demand in the USA

Since the first case of COVID-19 was identified in the USA in January, 2020, over 46 million people in the country have tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection. Several COVID-19 vaccines have received emergency use authorisations from the US Food and Drug Administration, with the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine receiving full approval on Aug 23, 2021. When paired with masking, physical distancing, and ventilation, COVID-19 vaccines are the best intervention to sustainably control the pandemic. However, surveys have consistently found that a sizeable minority of US residents do not plan to get a COVID-19 vaccine. The most severe consequence of an inadequate uptake of COVID-19 vaccines has been sustained community transmission (including of the delta [B.1.617.2] variant, a surge of which began in July, 2021). Exacerbating the direct impact of the virus, a low uptake of COVID-19 vaccines will prolong the social and economic repercussions of the pandemic on families and communities, especially low-income and minority ethnic groups, into 2022, or even longer. The scale and challenges of the COVID-19 vaccination campaign are unprecedented. Therefore, through a series of recommendations, we present a coordinated, evidence-based education, communication, and behavioural intervention strategy that is likely to improve the success of COVID-19 vaccine programmes across the USA.

Assessing COVID-19 Prevention Strategies to Permit the Safe Opening of Residential Colleges in Fall 2021

BACKGROUND

Effective vaccines, improved testing technologies, and decreases in COVID-19 incidence prompt an examination of the choices available to residential college administrators seeking to safely resume in-person campus activities in fall 2021.

OBJECTIVE

To help college administrators design and evaluate customized COVID-19 safety plans.

DESIGN

Decision analysis using a compartmental epidemic model to optimize vaccination, testing, and other nonpharmaceutical interventions depending on decision makers' preferences, choices, and assumptions about epidemic severity and vaccine effectiveness against infection, transmission, and disease progression.

SETTING

U.S. residential colleges.

PARTICIPANTS

Hypothetical cohort of 5000 persons (students, faculty, and staff) living and working in close proximity on campus.

MEASUREMENTS

Cumulative infections over a 120-day semester.

RESULTS

Under base-case assumptions, if 90% coverage can be attained with a vaccine that is 85% protective against infection and 25% protective against asymptomatic transmission, the model finds that campus activities can be resumed while holding cumulative cases below 5% of the population without the need for routine, asymptomatic testing. With 50% population coverage using such a vaccine, a similar cap on cumulative cases would require either daily asymptomatic testing of unvaccinated persons or a combination of less frequent testing and resumption of aggressive distancing and other nonpharmaceutical prevention policies. Colleges returning to pre-COVID-19 campus activities without either broad vaccination coverage or high-frequency testing put their campus population at risk for widespread viral transmission.

LIMITATION

Uncertainty in data, particularly vaccine effectiveness (preventive and transmission); no distinguishing between students and employees; and assumes limited community intermixing.

CONCLUSION

Vaccination coverage is the most powerful tool available to residential college administrators seeking to achieve a safe return to prepandemic operations this fall. Given the breadth of potential outcomes in the face of uncontrollable and uncertain factors, even colleges with high vaccination rates should be prepared to reinstitute or expand testing and distancing policies on short notice.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Institute on Drug Abuse.

Speed, Evidence, and Safety Characteristics of Vaccine Approvals by the US Food and Drug Administration

This cross-sectional study evaluates all of the novel vaccines approved by the US Food and Drug Administration over the last decade.

Shared Decision-Making and Prevention Recommendations: Evolution, Implications, and Challenges for Public Health

Recent guidelines and recommen dations from government prevention advisory groups endorsing shared clinical decision-making reflect an emerging trend among public health bodies.

Clinical Outcomes Of A COVID-19 Vaccine: Implementation Over Efficacy

The global effort to develop a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine is on track to produce one or more authorized vaccines. We examine how different definitions and thresholds of vaccine efficacy, coupled with different levels of implementation effectiveness and background epidemic severity, translate into outcomes including cumulative infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. Using a mathematical simulation of vaccination, we find that factors related to implementation will contribute more to the success of vaccination programs than a vaccine's efficacy as determined in clinical trials. The benefits of a vaccine will decline substantially in the event of manufacturing or deployment delays, significant vaccine hesitancy, or greater epidemic severity. Our findings demonstrate the urgent need for health officials to invest greater financial resources and attention to vaccine production and distribution programs, to redouble efforts to promote public confidence in COVID-19 vaccines, and to encourage continued adherence to other mitigation approaches, even after a vaccine becomes available.

Evaluation of Cancer Care After Medicaid Expansion Under the Affordable Care Act

This cohort study evaluates different approaches for estimating the population of individuals eligible for Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act in the context of researching changes in cancer care after Medicaid expansion.

Perspectives from Young South African and Zimbabwean Women on Attributes of Four (Placebo) Vaginal Microbicide Delivery Forms

Introduction

Incorporating end-user input into the design of new vaginal microbicides for women is key to optimizing their uptake, consistent use, and, ultimately, success in combatting the heterosexual HIV epidemic.

Methods

The Quatro Study assessed four placebo forms of vaginally inserted HIV-microbicides among young microbicide-naïve African women: on-demand film, insert and gel, and monthly ring. Participants randomly used each product for 1 month and provided product satisfaction ratings (1–5 scale), and opinions on product attributes and potential alternative designs. Qualitative data were collected through focus group discussions at study exit. Multivariable associations between attribute opinions and overall product rating were examined using Poisson regression models with robust standard errors to assess the attributes most influential to satisfaction.

Results

Overall opinions of products and their individual attributes were generally positive; all products were rated either 4 or a 5 by ≥ 50% of participants. Attributes related to ease of use and interference with normal activities were the most salient predictors of satisfaction. Preferences for duration of use tended toward relatively shorter use periods for the ring (i.e., 1–3 months vs. 12 months) and for coitally independent dosing for the on-demand products.

Conclusions

How well a product fit in with participants’ lifestyles was important to their overall satisfaction. For on-demand products, greater flexibility around timing of use was desired, to avoid coital dependency of the dosing.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1007/s10461-019-02576-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Real-World Evidence, Public Participation, and the FDA

For observers of pharmaceutical regulation and the Food and Drug Administration, these are uncertain times. Events in late 2016 raised concerns that the FDA's evidentiary standards were being weakened, compromising the agency's ability to adequately perform its regulatory and public health responsibilities. Two developments most directly contributed to these fears-the approval of eteplirsen, a treatment for Duchenne muscular dystrophy, against the recommendations of both FDA staff and an advisory committee and the December 2016 signing of the 21st Century Cures Act, which encouraged greater use by the FDA of "real-world" evidence not obtained through randomized controlled trials. The arrival of the Trump administration-with its deregulatory, industry-friendly approach-has only amplified concerns over the future of the FDA. It is too early to know whether the recent developments are truly harbingers of an FDA less likely to prevent unsafe or ineffective products from reaching the market. But elements in the two events-the role of patient narratives in deliberations regarding eteplirsen and the enthusiasm for real-world evidence in the 21st Century Cures Act-raise critical issues for the future of evidence in the FDA's work. The rigorous, inclusive approach under way to consider issues related to real-world evidence provides a model for a similarly needed inquiry regarding public participation in FDA decision-making.

The Spanish Flu, Epidemics, and the Turn to Biomedical Responses

A century ago, nonpharmaceutical interventions such as school closings, restrictions on large gatherings, and isolation and quarantine were the centerpiece of the response to the Spanish Flu. Yet, even though its cause was unknown and the science of vaccine development was in its infancy, considerable enthusiasm also existed for using vaccines to prevent its spread. This desire far exceeded the scientific knowledge and technological capabilities of the time. Beginning in the early 1930s, however, advances in virology and influenza vaccine development reshaped the relative priority given to biomedical approaches in epidemic response over traditional public health activities. Today, the large-scale implementation of nonpharmaceutical interventions akin to the response to the Spanish Flu would face enormous legal, ethical, and political challenges, but the enthusiasm for vaccines and other biomedical interventions that was emerging in 1918 has flourished. The Spanish Flu functioned as an inflection point in the history of epidemic responses, a critical moment in the long transition from approaches dominated by traditional public health activities to those in which biomedical interventions are viewed as the most potent and promising tools in the epidemic response arsenal.

Using campaigns to improve perceptions of the value of adult vaccination in the United States: Health communication considerations and insights

Vaccines have much relevance and promise for improving adult health in the United States, but to date, overall use and uptake remain far below desired levels. Many adults have not received recommended vaccinations and many healthcare providers do not strongly and actively encourage their use with patients. This has led some public health and medical experts to conclude that adult vaccines are severely undervalued by the U.S. public and healthcare providers and to call for campaigns and communication-based efforts to foster increased appreciation, and in turn, higher adult immunization rates. A narrative integrative review that draws upon the vaccine valuation and health communication literatures is used to develop a framework to guide campaign and communication-based efforts to improve public, provider, and policymakers' assessment of the value of adult vaccination. The review does this by: (1) distinguishing social psychological value from economic value; (2) identifying the implications of social psychological value considerations for adult vaccination-related communication campaigns; and (3) using five core health communication considerations to illustrate how social psychological notions of value can be integrated into campaigns or communication that are intended to improve adult vaccination value perceptions and assessments, and in turn, motivate greater support for and uptake of recommended adult vaccines.

Achieving an Optimal Childhood Vaccine Policy

Policies to remove parents' ability to opt-out from school immunization requirements on the basis of religious or personal beliefs (ie, nonmedical exemptions) may be a useful strategy to increase immunization rates and prevent outbreaks of vaccine-preventable disease. However, there is uncertainty about the effectiveness of this strategy and the range of possible outcomes. We advocate for a more deliberative process through which a broad range of outcomes is scrutinized and the balance of values underlying the policy decision to eliminate nonmedical exemptions is clearly articulated. We identify 3 outcomes that require particular consideration before policies to eliminate nonmedical exemptions are implemented widely and outline a process for making the values underlying such policies more explicit.

A Broader Bioethics: Topic Selection and the Impact of National Bioethics Commissions

Comparative assessments of national bioethics commissions in the United States commonly look at the differences among these groups over their forty-year history. A particular focus has been differences in the membership, mission, methods, and reports of the President's Council on Bioethics, which was active from 2001 until 2009, compared to those of its predecessors and the recent Presidential Commission for the Study of Bioethical Issues, active from 2009 until 2016. The differences are real, but disproportionate attention to them can obscure the substantial similarities in commissions' structure and function throughout the history of expert bioethics advice to government. As the Trump administration considers what role, if any, a bioethics commission will play in its work, it would be well served to consider how choices regarding the design of such a group and the topics it examines can best facilitate the unique contributions it can make to the government and to the country.

When Not All That Counts Can Be Counted: Economic Evaluations And The Value Of Vaccination

With vaccination efforts forced to compete for scarce resources at a time when national health budgets, global health resources, and the global donor community are facing considerable strains, advocates of vaccines have sought to better identify, measure, and articulate the value of vaccination. Critics of current analyses of the value of vaccination argue that a broader view is required, one that includes the additional economic benefits of vaccines or acknowledges the social and ethical aims advanced by vaccination programs. Much of this work has paid inadequate attention to the need to apply any expanded view of value consistently across medical interventions, to the close and complex integration of vaccination efforts with other health initiatives, and to the fact that subjectivity and judgments are present in quantitative and qualitative evidence alike. To fully realize the value of vaccination, far more attention, investment, and research are required to better understand the deliberations and decision-making processes by which any kind of evidence is translated into policy.

The Missions of National Commissions: Mapping the Forms and Functions of Bioethics Advisory Bodies

The findings, conclusions, and recommendations of national ethics commissions (NECs) have received considerable attention throughout the 40-year history of these groups in the United States and worldwide. However, the procedures or types of argument by which these bodies arrive at their decisions have received far less scrutiny. This paper explores how the diversity of ethical principles, concepts, or theories is featured in publications or decisions of these bodies, with particular emphasis on the need for NECs to be inclusive of pluralist positions that typically exist in contemporary democracies. The discussion is centered on the extent to which NECs may focus on providing focal frameworks, primarily framing the ethical issues at stake, or normative frameworks, additionally providing transparent justifications for any conclusions and recommendations that are made. The structure allows for assessments of the relative merits and drawbacks of different approaches in both theory and practice.

"Model" patients and the consequences of provider responses to vaccine hesitancy

The manner in which providers respond to parental concerns about the recommended childhood vaccination schedule is an area of increasing interest in pediatrics and medical ethics. Like many aspects of vaccination policy and practice, evaluating the reactions of providers to parental vaccine hesitancy--including the potential dismissal of such families from their practices--requires an appreciation of the twin character of vaccination as both a public health program as well as an individual preventive intervention. Accordingly, the ethics of vaccination combine many aspects of traditional medical ethics, such as respect for patient autonomy, the primacy of informed consent, and concern for the doctor-patient relationship, with the relatively newer discourse of public health ethics, one that directs particular attention to the health of populations and the pursuit of social justice. When parents are hesitant about vaccination for their children, providers may face a significant challenge reconciling their commitment to the health of those children, their respect for the perspectives of parents, and their interest in the health of their other patients and their communities. The tensions and potential conflicts among these considerations help to explain why provider responses to vaccine hesitancy have emerged as a frequent topic of discussion among practitioners, public health advocates, and ethicists alike.

The first rotavirus vaccine and the politics of acceptable risk

Context

Vaccination in the United States is a frequent source of controversy, with critics alleging failures by public health officials to adequately identify, monitor, and respond to risks associated with vaccines. In response to these charges, the case of RotaShield, a vaccine withdrawn in 1999 following confirmation of a serious adverse event associated with its use, is regularly invoked as evidence of the effectiveness of current vaccine safety activities.

Methods

This article examines the history of RotaShield, with particular attention paid to decision making regarding its use in the United States and internationally. I reviewed and analyzed federal advisory committee meeting transcripts, international conference reports, government and scientific publications, media coverage, and other primary and secondary source materials. I also conducted six semistructured interviews with former senior officials and advisory committee members at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention who participated in decisions regarding the vaccine.

Findings

Decision making regarding RotaShield, including the ultimate withdrawal of its recommendation for use, was shaped significantly by government health officials’ concern for preserving public confidence in overall U.S. vaccination efforts amid several unrelated vaccine risk controversies ongoing at that time. This attention to public perception and external pressures occurred in tandem with the evaluation of the quantitative evidence regarding the magnitude and severity of the risk associated with the vaccine. The decisions made in the United States resulted in foreseen but unintended consequences for international use of the vaccine, including in nations where the profile of risks and potential benefits was dramatically different.

Conclusions

As enthusiasm for evidence-based decision making grows throughout medicine and public health, greater explicit attention should be directed to the processes by which decision makers and their expert advisers evaluate such evidence and translate it into regulation and policy by means of qualitative judgments.

The Role of Interferon Regulatory Factor-1 (IRF1) in Overcoming Antiestrogen Resistance in the Treatment of Breast Cancer

Resistance to endocrine therapy is common among breast cancer patients with estrogen receptor alpha-positive (ER+) tumors and limits the success of this therapeutic strategy. While the mechanisms that regulate endocrine responsiveness and cell fate are not fully understood, interferon regulatory factor-1 (IRF1) is strongly implicated as a key regulatory node in the underlying signaling network. IRF1 is a tumor suppressor that mediates cell fate by facilitating apoptosis and can do so with or without functional p53. Expression of IRF1 is downregulated in endocrine-resistant breast cancer cells, protecting these cells from IRF1-induced inhibition of proliferation and/or induction of cell death. Nonetheless, when IRF1 expression is induced following IFNγ treatment, antiestrogen sensitivity is restored by a process that includes the inhibition of prosurvival BCL2 family members and caspase activation. These data suggest that a combination of endocrine therapy and compounds that effectively induce IRF1 expression may be useful for the treatment of many ER+ breast cancers. By understanding IRF1 signaling in the context of endocrine responsiveness, we may be able to develop novel therapeutic strategies and better predict how patients will respond to endocrine therapy.