Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022-2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050.

METHODS

Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.

FINDINGS

In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8-63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0-45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2-34·1] to 15·5% [13·7-17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4-40·3) to 41·1% (33·9-48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6-25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5-43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5-17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7-11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7-27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5-6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2-26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [-0·6 to 3·6]).

INTERPRETATION

Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.

METHODS

To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10-54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values-a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy-by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007-21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.

FINDINGS

During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63-5·06) to 2·23 (2·09-2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137-147), declining to 129 million (121-138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1-canonically considered replacement-level fertility-in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7-29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59-2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25-1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6-43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1-59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions-decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7-25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3-19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4-10·1) in 2100-but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40-1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35-1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction.

INTERPRETATION

Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk-outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk-outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk-outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk-outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws.

FINDINGS

Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7-9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4-9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7-6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8-6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8-6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9-27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5-28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3-56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9-21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3-12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6-1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1-1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4-78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2-72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Physical Activity and Progression of Coronary Artery Calcification in Men and Women

Importance

Prior cross-sectional studies have suggested that very high levels of physical activity (PA) are associated with a higher prevalence of coronary artery calcium (CAC). However, less is known regarding the association between high-volume PA and progression of CAC over time.

Objective

To explore the association between PA (measured at baseline and during follow-up) and the progression of CAC over time.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study included data from 8771 apparently healthy men and women 40 years and older who had multiple preventive medicine visits at the Cooper Clinic (Dallas, Texas), with a mean (SD) follow-up time of 7.8 (4.7) years between the first and last clinic visit. Participants with reported PA and CAC measurements at each visit during 1998 to 2019 were included in the study. Data were analyzed from March 2023 to February 2024.

Exposures

PA reported at baseline and follow-up, examined continuously per 500 metabolic equivalent of task minutes per week (MET-min/wk) and categorically: less than 1500, 1500 to 2999, 3000 or more MET-min/wk.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Negative binomial regression was used to estimate the rate of mean CAC progression between visits, with potential modification by PA volume, calculated as the mean of PA at baseline and follow-up. In addition, proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios for baseline PA as a predictor of CAC progression to 100 or more Agatston units (AU).

Results

Among 8771 participants, the mean (SD) age at baseline was 50.2 (7.3) years for men and 51.1 (7.3) years for women. The rate of mean CAC progression per year from baseline was 28.5% in men and 32.1% in women, independent of mean PA during the same time period. That is, the difference in the rate of CAC progression per year was 0.0% per 500 MET-min/wk for men and women (men: 95% CI, -0.1% to 0.1%; women: 95% CI, -0.4% to 0.5%). Moreover, baseline PA was not associated with CAC progression to a clinically meaningful threshold of 100 AU or more over the follow-up period. The hazard ratio for a baseline PA value of 3000 or more MET-min/wk vs less than 1500 MET-min/wk to cross this threshold was 0.84 (95% CI, 0.66 to 1.08) in men and 1.16 (95% CI, 0.57 to 2.35) in women.

Conclusions and Relevance

This study found that PA volume was not associated with progression of CAC in a large cohort of healthy men and women who were initially free of overt cardiovascular disease.

Coronary Artery Calcification and High-Volume Physical Activity: Role of Lower Intensity versus Longer Duration of Exercise

AIM

While high-volume physical activity (PA) has been linked to elevated coronary artery calcification (CAC), the role of intensity versus duration of PA has not been investigated. The purpose of the study was to examine the role of intensity versus duration of PA in relation to CAC.

METHODS

Data are from 23,383 apparently healthy men who completed a PA questionnaire and underwent CAC scanning as part of a preventive exam. Self-reported PA was categorized into 4 groups of average intensity and weekly duration of PA and (average intensity: 1, 3-5.9, 6-8.9, and 9-12 metabolic equivalents of task [METs]; weekly duration: 0,  > 0-<2, 2-<5, and ≥5 hours/week). Mean CAC and CAC ≥ 100 Agatston Units (AU) were regressed separately on continuous or categorical average intensity and weekly duration of PA.

RESULTS

The mean and standard deviation (SD) age was 51.7 (8.3) years, and mean CAC was 174.8 (543.6) AU with 23.5% of men presenting with CAC ≥ 100 AU. Higher average intensity of PA was related to lower mean CAC (-3.1%/MET, 95% confidence interval [CI]: -4.6, -1.6%/MET) and lower relative risk (RR) of CAC ≥ 100 AU (RR: 0.99, 95% CI: 0.98, 1.00/MET). Opposite trend was observed for the duration component wherein higher weekly duration of PA was significantly associated with greater mean CAC and RR of CAC ≥ 100 AU.

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated CAC was associated with lower average intensity and longer duration of PA in men, providing new insight into the complex relationship between leisure-time PA behaviors and risk of CAC.

Association of glycaemic index and glycaemic load with type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and all-cause mortality: a meta-analysis of mega cohorts of more than 100 000 participants

BACKGROUND

There is debate over whether the glycaemic index of foods relates to chronic disease. We aimed to assess the associations between glycaemic index (GI) and glycaemic load (GL) and type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, diabetes-related cancers, and all-cause mortality.

METHODS

We did a meta-analysis of large cohorts (≥100 000 participants) identified from the Richard Doll Consortium. We searched the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Scopus for cohorts that prospectively examined associations between GI or GL and chronic disease outcomes published from database inception to Aug 4, 2023. Full-article review and extraction of summary estimates data were conducted by three independent reviewers. Primary outcomes were incident type 2 diabetes, total cardiovascular disease (including mortality), diabetes-related cancers (ie, bladder, breast, colorectal, endometrial, hepatic, pancreatic, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma), and all-cause mortality. We assessed comparisons between the lowest and highest quantiles of GI and GL, adjusting for dietary factors, and pooling their most adjusted relative risk (RR) estimates using a fixed-effects model. We also assessed associations between diets high in fibre and whole grains and the four main outcomes. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42023394689.

FINDINGS

From ten prospective large cohorts (six from the USA, one from Europe, two from Asia, and one international), we identified a total of 48 studies reporting associations between GI or GL and the outcomes of interest: 34 (71%) on various cancers, nine (19%) on cardiovascular disease, five (10%) on type 2 diabetes, and three (6%) on all-cause mortality. Consumption of high GI foods was associated with an increased incidence of type 2 diabetes (RR 1·27 [95% CI 1·21-1·34]; p<0·0001), total cardiovascular disease (1·15 [1·11-1·19]; p<0·0001), diabetes-related cancer (1·05 [1·02-1·08]; p=0·0010), and all-cause mortality (1·08 [1·05-1·12]; p<0·0001). Similar associations were seen between high GL and diabetes (RR 1·15 [95% CI 1·09-1·21]; p<0·0001) and total cardiovascular disease (1·15 [1·10-1·20]; p<0·0001). Associations between diets high in fibre and whole grains and the four main outcomes were similar to those for low GI diets.

INTERPRETATION

Dietary recommendations to reduce GI and GL could have effects on health outcomes that are similar to outcomes of recommendations to increase intake of fibre and whole grain.

FUNDING

Banting and Best and the Karuna Foundation.

Independent and joint associations of cardiorespiratory fitness and BMI with dementia risk: the Cooper Center Longitudinal Study

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to examine the association of midlife fitness and body mass index (BMI) with incident dementia later in life.

DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS

A cohort study of 6428 individuals (mean age 50.9±7.6 years) from the Cooper Center Longitudinal Study.

MEASURES

Cardiorespiratory fitness and BMI were assessed twice (1970-1999) during visits to the Cooper Clinic, a preventive medicine clinic in Dallas, Texas. These measures were examined as continuous and categorical variables. As continuous variables, fitness and BMI were examined at baseline (averaged of two examinations) and as absolute change between exams (mean time 2.1±1.8 years). Variables were categorised: unfit versus fit and normal versus overweight/obese. Medicare claims data were used to obtain all-cause dementia incidence (1999-2009). Mean follow-up between midlife examinations and Medicare surveillance was 15.7 ((SD=6.2) years. Multivariable models were used to assess the associations between fitness, BMI and dementia.

RESULTS

During 40 773 person years of Medicare surveillance, 632 cases of dementia were identified. After controlling for BMI and covariates, each 1-metabolic equivalent increment in fitness was associated with 5% lower (HR 0.95; 95% CI 0.90 to 0.99) dementia risk. In comparison, after controlling for fitness and covariates, each 1 kg/m2 increment in BMI was associated with a 3.0% (HR 1.03; 95% CI 1.00 to 1.07) higher risk for dementia, yet without significance (p=0.051). Similar findings were observed when the exposures were categorised. Changes in fitness and BMI between examinations were not related to dementia. Jointly, participants who were unfit and overweight/obese had the highest (HR 2.28 95% CI 1.57 to 3.32) dementia risk compared with their fit and normal weight counterparts.

CONCLUSION

Lower midlife fitness is a risk marker for dementia irrespective of weight status. Being unfit coupled with overweight/obese status might increase one's risk for dementia even further.

Association between baseline levels of muscular strength and risk of stroke in later life: The Cooper Center Longitudinal Study

OBJECTIVE

Muscular strength is an important component of physical fitness. We evaluated the relationship between baseline muscular strength and risk of stroke among adults who were aged ≥65 years during follow-up.

METHODS

7627 healthy adults (mean age 43.9 years, 86.0% male) underwent a baseline physical examination between 1980 and 1989. Muscular strength was determined by 1-repetition maximum measures for bench press and leg press and categorized into age and sex-specific tertiles for each measure. Cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) was assessed via a maximal treadmill exercise test. Those enrolled in fee-for-service Medicare from 1999 to 2019 were included in the analyses. Associations between baseline strength and stroke outcomes were estimated using a modified Cox proportional hazards model. In a secondary analysis, we examined stroke risk by categories of CRF where Quintile 1 = low, Quintiles 2-3 = moderate, and Quintiles 4-5 = high CRF based on age and sex.

RESULTS

After 70,072 person-years of Medicare follow-up, there were 1211 earliest indications of incident stroke. In multivariable analyses, the hazard ratio (HR) (95% confidence interval (95%CI)) for stroke across bench press categories were 1.0 (referent), 0.96 (0.83-1.11), and 0.89 (0.77-1.04), respectively (p trend = 0.14). The trend across categories of leg press was also non-significant (p trend = 0.79). Adjusted HR (95%CI) for stroke across ordered CRF categories were 1.0 (referent), 0.90 (0.71-1.13), and 0.72 (0.57-0.92) (p trend < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

While meeting public health guidelines for muscular strengthening activities is likely to improve muscular strength as well as many health outcomes in older adults, performing such activities may not be helpful in preventing stroke. Conversely, meeting guidelines for aerobic activity is likely to improve CRF and lower stroke risk.

Omega-3 index, cardiorespiratory fitness, and cognitive function in mid-age and older adults

Higher levels of omega-3 fatty acids in red blood cell membranes (omega-3 index or O3I) and cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) are each associated with reduced cognitive impairment, but little research has examined the relationship between O3I and cognitive function while accounting for CRF. We analyzed cross-sectional data from 5,464 healthy men and women aged 55-85 years who had preventive medical examinations between 2009 and 2023. Primary exposures included O3I (<4.0%, 4.0-7.9%, or ≥ 8.0%) and age- and sex-based CRF quintile (1 = low, 2-3 = moderate, 4-5 = high). Cognitive impairment was defined as a Montreal Cognitive Assessment score of ≤ 25. We used Poisson regression to estimate relative risks (RR) of cognitive impairment, controlling for covariates. O3I < 4% was associated with increased cognitive impairment relative to ≥ 8.0% (RR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.01-1.44) in a partially adjusted model. This association did not remain statistically significant in the fully adjusted model which included CRF. Low versus high CRF was associated with cognitive impairment (RR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.07-1.53), independent of O3I and clinical biomarkers. The interaction between CRF and O3I was not significant (P = 0.8). In joint association analysis, risk of cognitive impairment was elevated with lower omega-3 index or CRF or both. Additional research is needed to fully understand the association between O3I and cognitive function at varying CRF levels.

Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050.

METHODS

Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively.

FINDINGS

In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8-6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7-9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5-13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1-79·5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1-96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9-95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5-71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5-30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22-1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1-17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8-11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%.

INTERPRETATION

Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Associations among cardiorespiratory fitness, C-reactive protein, and all-cause mortality in men and women

We examined individual and joint associations among high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (CRP), cardiorespiratory fitness (fitness), and mortality in healthy men and women. Between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2016, 30,077 adults (31.3% women) received a comprehensive physical examination. Fitness was determined from maximal treadmill exercise test duration. Participants were categorized as unfit (Quintile 1) and fit (Quintiles 2-5), and by normal (<2 mg/L) and elevated (≥2 mg/L) CRP categories. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence interval (CI) for all-cause mortality were computed with Cox regression. During an average of 10.1 years of follow-up, 576 deaths occurred. Following adjustment for age, smoking status, sex, exam year, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, triglyceride:high-density lipoprotein ratio, and fasting glucose, HR (95% CI) for all-cause mortality were 1.0 (referent) and 1.52 (1.14-2.02) for fit and unfit categories, respectively. Corresponding values for normal and elevated CRP categories were 1.0 and 1.50 (1.20-1.89), respectively. When grouped by fitness and CRP category, there was significantly greater mortality risk in the unfit than the fit category within the elevated CRP category (HR = 1.77 (1.14-2.75)), but not in the normal CRP category (HR = 1.38 (0.96-1.98)). Each 1 metabolic equivalent increment in fitness and 1 mg/L increment in CRP were associated with 10.0% (95% CI: 5.1-14.8%) decreased and 7.3% (95% CI: 2.0%-12.9%) increased mortality hazard, respectively. Compared to the unfit, fit individuals have an attenuated mortality risk within each CRP category. Thus, higher fitness appears to provide some protection against all-cause mortality, particularly among those with elevated levels of inflammation.

Cardiorespiratory Fitness and All-Cause Mortality in Women with Metabolic Syndrome

Purpose: To examine the association between cardiorespiratory fitness (fitness) and all-cause mortality in women with metabolic syndrome (MetSyn). Methods: The sample included 1798 women with MetSyn (mean age 50.2 years) who received a comprehensive preventive baseline examination between 1978 and 2016, with mortality follow-up through December 31, 2017. MetSyn was identified using Adult Treatment Panel-III Guidelines. Fitness was determined by duration of a maximal treadmill exercise test and grouped as fit or unfit on the basis of the upper 80% and lower 20% of the age-standardized fitness distribution. Age- and smoking-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated in a proportional hazards regression model. Results: During a mean follow-up of 16.6 ± 8.7 years, 204 deaths occurred. Crude all-cause mortality rates were 6.8 and 6.9 deaths per 10,000 woman-years in fit and unfit groups, respectively. The adjusted HR (95% CI) for all-cause mortality in unfit versus fit women (referent) with MetSyn was 1.36 (95% CI 1.01-1.83). Conclusions: Higher levels of fitness significantly attenuate the risk of all-cause mortality in women with MetSyn. In accordance with the American Heart Association scientific statement, to more accurately determine mortality risk in this population, health care professionals should measure or estimate fitness and should strongly encourage women to meet current public health guidelines for physical activity with the goal of reaching higher fitness levels.

Pandemic-Related Life Events and Physical Inactivity During COVID-19 Among Israeli Adults: The Smoking and Lifestyles in Israel Study

BACKGROUND

Public health measures to contain the COVID-19 pandemic have led to disruptions in daily life, such as job loss and changes in activity. The present study examines the relationship between pandemic-related life events and disuse (prolonged sitting coupled with inactivity) among adults.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study of 4084 adults in Israel (September 2020). The primary independent variables were pandemic-related life events, such as job loss. The primary dependent variable was disuse as measured by the Rapid Assessment Disuse Index (RADI). The RADI was examined continuously and dichotomously as a low RADI score (<26: yes/no).

RESULTS

Linear regression indicated that experiencing a major life event during the pandemic was associated with lower RADI scores (-1.04; 95% confidence interval, -1.48 to -0.61). Similarly, logistic regression revealed that those experiencing a major life event had 1.18 (95% confidence interval, 1.03 to 1.34) times greater odds for low RADI scores in comparison to those not experiencing an event.

CONCLUSIONS

Experiencing pandemic-related major life events was linked to less sitting time and increased activity levels among Israeli adults. Future research should examine underlying mechanisms explaining this relationship to facilitate the design and implementation of targeted interventions.

Cardiorespiratory Fitness and Depression Symptoms among Adults During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Cooper Center Longitudinal Study

This study examined the relation between cardiorespiratory fitness (fitness) and depression symptoms prior to and during COVID-19 among adults seeking preventive medical care. Participants consisted of 967 patients attending the Cooper Clinic (Dallas, TX) pre-pandemic (March 2018-December 2019) and during the pandemic (March-December 2020). The outcome, depression symptoms, was based on the Center for Epidemiological Studies-Depression (CES-D). Maximal metabolic equivalents task (MET) levels for fitness were determined from the final treadmill speed and grade. Multiple linear regression models were computed by sex. Analysis revealed that mean fitness decreased from 11.4 METs (SD=2.1) prior to the pandemic to 10.9 METs (SD=2.3) during the pandemic (p-value<0.001). The mean CES-D score increased from 2.8 (SD= 3.1) before to pandemic to 3.1 (SD=3.2) during the pandemic (p-value=0.003). Results from multiple linear regression indicate that increased fitness was associated with a statistically significant decrease in depression scores in men (-0.17 per MET; 95%CI -0.33, -0.02) but not women. This modest decrease may have been tempered by high fitness levels and low depression scores at baseline in this well-educated sample.

Cardiorespiratory fitness, white blood cell count, and mortality in men and women

BACKGROUND

We examined the associations of cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) and white blood cell count (WBC) with mortality outcomes.

METHODS

A total of 52,056 apparently healthy adults completed a comprehensive health examination, including a maximal treadmill test and blood chemistry analyses. CRF was categorized as high, moderate, or low by age and sex; WBC was categorized as sex-specific quartiles.

RESULTS

During 17.8 ± 9.5 years (mean ± SD) of follow-up, a total of 4088 deaths occurred. When regressed jointly, significantly decreased all-cause mortality across CRF categories was observed within each quartile of WBC in men. Within WBC Quartile 1, all-cause mortality hazard ratios (HRs) with a 95% confidence interval (95%CI) were 1.0 (referent), 1.29 (95%CI: 1.06‒1.57), and 2.03 (95%CI: 1.42‒2.92) for high, moderate, and low CRF categories, respectively (p for trend < 0.001). Similar trends were observed in the remaining 3 quartiles. With the exception of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality within Quartile 1 (p for trend = 0.743), there were also similar trends across CRF categories within WBC quartiles in men for both CVD and cancer mortality (p for trend < 0.01 for all). For women, there were no significant trends across CRF categories for mortality outcomes within Quartiles 1-3. However, we observed significantly decreased all-cause mortality across CRF categories within WBC Quartile 4 (HR = 1.05 (95%CI: 0.76‒1.44), HR = 1.63 (95%CI:1.20‒2.21), and HR = 1.87 (95%CI:1.29‒2.69) for high, moderate, and low CRF, respectively (p for trend = 0.002)). Similar trends in women were observed for CVD and cancer mortality within WBC Quartile 4 only.

CONCLUSION

There are strong joint associations between CRF, WBC, and all-cause, CVD, and cancer mortality in men; these associations are less consistent in women.

Estimates, trends, and drivers of the global burden of type 2 diabetes attributable to PM2·5 air pollution, 1990-2019: an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Experimental and epidemiological studies indicate an association between exposure to particulate matter (PM) air pollution and increased risk of type 2 diabetes. In view of the high and increasing prevalence of diabetes, we aimed to quantify the burden of type 2 diabetes attributable to PM2·5 originating from ambient and household air pollution.

METHODS

We systematically compiled all relevant cohort and case-control studies assessing the effect of exposure to household and ambient fine particulate matter (PM2·5) air pollution on type 2 diabetes incidence and mortality. We derived an exposure-response curve from the extracted relative risk estimates using the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. The estimated curve was linked to ambient and household PM2·5 exposures from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019, and estimates of the attributable burden (population attributable fractions and rates per 100 000 population of deaths and disability-adjusted life-years) for 204 countries from 1990 to 2019 were calculated. We also assessed the role of changes in exposure, population size, age, and type 2 diabetes incidence in the observed trend in PM2·5-attributable type 2 diabetes burden. All estimates are presented with 95% uncertainty intervals.

FINDINGS

In 2019, approximately a fifth of the global burden of type 2 diabetes was attributable to PM2·5 exposure, with an estimated 3·78 (95% uncertainty interval 2·68-4·83) deaths per 100 000 population and 167 (117-223) disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) per 100 000 population. Approximately 13·4% (9·49-17·5) of deaths and 13·6% (9·73-17·9) of DALYs due to type 2 diabetes were contributed by ambient PM2·5, and 6·50% (4·22-9·53) of deaths and 5·92% (3·81-8·64) of DALYs by household air pollution. High burdens, in terms of numbers as well as rates, were estimated in Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and South America. Since 1990, the attributable burden has increased by 50%, driven largely by population growth and ageing. Globally, the impact of reductions in household air pollution was largely offset by increased ambient PM2·5.

INTERPRETATION

Air pollution is a major risk factor for diabetes. We estimated that about a fifth of the global burden of type 2 diabetes is attributable PM2·5 pollution. Air pollution mitigation therefore might have an essential role in reducing the global disease burden resulting from type 2 diabetes.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Physical Activity, Adiposity, and Serum Vitamin D Levels in Healthy Women: The Cooper Center Longitudinal Study

Background: Although physical inactivity, obesity, and low serum vitamin D [25-hydroxyvitamin D, 25(OH)D] are common among women, joint associations among these biomarkers are not well-described. Materials and Methods: A total of 7553 healthy women received a comprehensive examination (2006-2018), including self-reported physical activity (PA), body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), waist:height ratio (W:HT), percent body fat (%Fat), and 25(OH)D. Participants were divided into four categories of PA based on current guidelines: <500 (not meeting guidelines), 500-1000 (meeting guidelines), 1001-2500 (>1-2.5 times guidelines), and >2500 (>2.5 times guidelines) metabolic equivalent-minutes/week (MET-Min/wk), and were also classified by clinical cut points for adiposity measures and 25(OH)D. We examined trends of 25(OH)D and adiposity exposures across PA categories and calculated odds ratios (ORs) of vitamin D deficiency across categories of each adiposity exposure. We examined joint associations among PA and adiposity with 25(OH)D. Results: A positive trend was observed for 25(OH)D across PA categories (p < 0.001). Compared with normal weight status, the odds for 25(OH)D deficiency were significantly higher for overweight women within adiposity exposures (p for all <0.001). When examining joint associations, 25(OH)D was higher across PA categories within each stratum of BMI, WC, W:HT, and %Fat (p trend <0.007 for all). When examining PA and BMI as continuous variables, OR for vitamin D deficiency were 0.95 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.93-0.96) per 250 MET-minutes/week increment in PA, and 1.20 (95% CI: 1.17-1.23) per 2 kg/m² increment in BMI. Conclusions: 25(OH)D levels are positively associated with PA and negatively associated with different measures of adiposity. Higher levels of PA attenuate the association between adiposity and 25(OH)D.

Diabetes mortality and trends before 25 years of age: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Diabetes, particularly type 1 diabetes, at younger ages can be a largely preventable cause of death with the correct health care and services. We aimed to evaluate diabetes mortality and trends at ages younger than 25 years globally using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We used estimates of GBD 2019 to calculate international diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years in 1990 and 2019. Data sources for causes of death were obtained from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and other surveillance systems for 1990-2019. We estimated death rates for each location using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed the association of age-standardised death rates per 100 000 population with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and a measure of universal health coverage (UHC) and described the variability within SDI quintiles. We present estimates with their 95% uncertainty intervals.

FINDINGS

In 2019, 16 300 (95% uncertainty interval 14 200 to 18 900) global deaths due to diabetes (type 1 and 2 combined) occurred in people younger than 25 years and 73·7% (68·3 to 77·4) were classified as due to type 1 diabetes. The age-standardised death rate was 0·50 (0·44 to 0·58) per 100 000 population, and 15 900 (97·5%) of these deaths occurred in low to high-middle SDI countries. The rate was 0·13 (0·12 to 0·14) per 100 000 population in the high SDI quintile, 0·60 (0·51 to 0·70) per 100 000 population in the low-middle SDI quintile, and 0·71 (0·60 to 0·86) per 100 000 population in the low SDI quintile. Within SDI quintiles, we observed large variability in rates across countries, in part explained by the extent of UHC (r2=0·62). From 1990 to 2019, age-standardised death rates decreased globally by 17·0% (-28·4 to -2·9) for all diabetes, and by 21·0% (-33·0 to -5·9) when considering only type 1 diabetes. However, the low SDI quintile had the lowest decline for both all diabetes (-13·6% [-28·4 to 3·4]) and for type 1 diabetes (-13·6% [-29·3 to 8·9]).

INTERPRETATION

Decreasing diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years remains an important challenge, especially in low and low-middle SDI countries. Inadequate diagnosis and treatment of diabetes is likely to be major contributor to these early deaths, highlighting the urgent need to provide better access to insulin and basic diabetes education and care. This mortality metric, derived from readily available and frequently updated GBD data, can help to monitor preventable diabetes-related deaths over time globally, aligned with the UN's Sustainable Development Targets, and serve as an indicator of the adequacy of basic diabetes care for type 1 and type 2 diabetes across nations.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Fit and Tipsy? The Interrelationship between Cardiorespiratory Fitness and Alcohol Consumption and Dependence

PURPOSE

To examine whether higher levels of cardiorespiratory fitness are related to increased alcohol consumption and dependence among a large sample of adults attending a preventive medicine clinic.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study of 38,653 apparently healthy patients who visited the Cooper Clinic (Dallas, TX) for preventive medical examinations (1988-2019) and enrolled in the Cooper Center Longitudinal Study. The primary independent variable was cardiorespiratory fitness, based on a maximal treadmill test, and the dependent variables were alcohol consumption and dependence (self-reported). The relations between fitness category (low, moderate, high) and alcohol consumption (low, moderate, heavy) and suggested alcohol dependence (Cut down, Annoyed, Guilty, Eye opener score ≥2) among women and men were estimated via multivariable regression while adjusting for covariates (e.g., age, birth year cohort, marital status, and body mass index).

RESULTS

Women within the moderate and high fitness categories had 1.58 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.32-1.91) and 2.14 (95% CI, 1.77-2.58) greater odds of moderate/heavy alcohol consumption, respectively, in comparison to their low fitness counterparts. Similarly, moderate and high fit men had 1.42 (95% CI, 1.30-1.55) and 1.63 (95% CI, 1.49-1.80) times greater odds of moderate-to-heavy alcohol consumption, respectively, in comparison to the low fitness group. In addition, among men who were heavy drinkers (but not women), higher fitness levels were related to lower rates of suggested alcohol dependence. Specifically, these men had 45.7%, 41.7%, and 34.9% proportions of clinically relevant alcohol problems across low, moderate, and high fitness categories (adjusted P for trend <0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher fitness levels are significantly related to greater alcohol consumption among a large cohort of adult patients. Interventions focusing on increasing fitness (via physical activity promotion) might consider concurrently aiming to reduce alcohol consumption.

Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10-24 years, 1950-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10-24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10-24 years by age group (10-14 years, 15-19 years, and 20-24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10-24 years with that in children aged 0-9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10-24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017).

FINDINGS

In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39-1·59) worldwide in people aged 10-24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10-14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15-19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1-4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1-4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0-24 years that occurred in people aged 10-24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%.

INTERPRETATION

Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10-24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for neonatal and child health: all-cause and cause-specific mortality findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 findings for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in children younger than 5 years of age, with multiple scenarios for child mortality in 2030 that include the consideration of potential effects of COVID-19, and a novel framework for quantifying optimal child survival.

METHODS

We completed all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality analyses from 204 countries and territories for detailed age groups separately, with aggregated mortality probabilities per 1000 livebirths computed for neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR). Scenarios for 2030 represent different potential trajectories, notably including potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of improvements preferentially targeting neonatal survival. Optimal child survival metrics were developed by age, sex, and cause of death across all GBD location-years. The first metric is a global optimum and is based on the lowest observed mortality, and the second is a survival potential frontier that is based on stochastic frontier analysis of observed mortality and Healthcare Access and Quality Index.

FINDINGS

Global U5MR decreased from 71·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 68·3-74·0) in 2000 to 37·1 (33·2-41·7) in 2019 while global NMR correspondingly declined more slowly from 28·0 deaths per 1000 live births (26·8-29·5) in 2000 to 17·9 (16·3-19·8) in 2019. In 2019, 136 (67%) of 204 countries had a U5MR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold and 133 (65%) had an NMR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold, and the reference scenario suggests that by 2030, 154 (75%) of all countries could meet the U5MR targets, and 139 (68%) could meet the NMR targets. Deaths of children younger than 5 years totalled 9·65 million (95% UI 9·05-10·30) in 2000 and 5·05 million (4·27-6·02) in 2019, with the neonatal fraction of these deaths increasing from 39% (3·76 million [95% UI 3·53-4·02]) in 2000 to 48% (2·42 million; 2·06-2·86) in 2019. NMR and U5MR were generally higher in males than in females, although there was no statistically significant difference at the global level. Neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years in 2019, followed by lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, congenital birth defects, and malaria. The global optimum analysis suggests NMR could be reduced to as low as 0·80 (95% UI 0·71-0·86) deaths per 1000 livebirths and U5MR to 1·44 (95% UI 1·27-1·58) deaths per 1000 livebirths, and in 2019, there were as many as 1·87 million (95% UI 1·35-2·58; 37% [95% UI 32-43]) of 5·05 million more deaths of children younger than 5 years than the survival potential frontier.

INTERPRETATION

Global child mortality declined by almost half between 2000 and 2019, but progress remains slower in neonates and 65 (32%) of 204 countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, are not on track to meet either SDG 3.2 target by 2030. Focused improvements in perinatal and newborn care, continued and expanded delivery of essential interventions such as vaccination and infection prevention, an enhanced focus on equity, continued focus on poverty reduction and education, and investment in strengthening health systems across the development spectrum have the potential to substantially improve U5MR. Given the widespread effects of COVID-19, considerable effort will be required to maintain and accelerate progress.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Cigarette Prices and Smoking Behavior in Israel: Findings from a National Study of Adults (2002-2017)

Tobacco taxation and price policies are considered the most effective for lowering demand for tobacco products. While this statement is based on research from numerous countries, scant evidence exists on this topic for Israel. Accordingly, we assessed the association between cigarette prices and smoking prevalence and intensity from a national sample of adults in Israel (2002-2017). Data on smoking behavior were derived from the Israeli Knowledge Attitudes and Practices (KAP) survey, a repeated cross-sectional survey. Price information is from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) since it was not collected in the KAP survey. We used the price of a pack of 20 cigarettes for Marlboro and the local brand. These two price variables were the primary independent variables, and we adjusted for inflation. The dependent variables were current smoking (yes/no) and smoking intensity, defined as the number of cigarettes smoked per week. Multivariable analysis was employed using a two-part model while adjusting for covariates. The first step of the model utilized logistic regression with current smoking as the dependent variable. The second step examining smoking intensity as the dependent variable, used OLS regression. Price elasticity was estimated as well. Analysis revealed that a one-unit increase (Israeli currency) in the price of local brand of cigarettes was related to 2.0% (OR = 0.98; 95%CI 0.98, 0.99) lower odds of being a current smoker, adjusting for covariates including household income. Moreover, a one unit increase in the price of the local brand of cigarettes was related to consuming 1.49 (95% CI -1.97, -1.00) fewer weekly cigarettes, controlling for household income and covariates. Similar results were found with the Marlboro cigarette prices. The total price elasticity of cigarette demand, given by the sum of price elasticities of smoking prevalence and intensity, showed that a 10.0% increase in the price is associated with a 4.6-9.2% lower cigarette consumption among Israeli adults. Thus, increasing cigarette prices will likely lead to a reduction in cigarette smoking thereby improving public health in Israel.

Long-term weight loss success and the health behaviours of adults in the USA: findings from a nationally representative cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVE

To describe the relationship between long-term weight loss (LTWL) success and lifestyle behaviours among US adults.

DESIGN

Serial cross-sectional data from National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey cycles 2007-2014.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Population-based nationally representative sample. The analytic sample included 3040 adults aged 20-64 years who tried to lose weight in the past year.

MEASURES

Participants were grouped into five LTWL categories (<5%, 5%-9.9%, 10%-14.9%, 15%-19.9% and ≥20%). Lifestyle-related behaviours included the following: alcohol intake, physical activity, smoking, fast-food consumption, dietary quality (Healthy Eating Index (HEI)) and caloric intake. Multivariable regression was employed adjusting for age, sex, race/ethnicity, marital status, education, household income and size, current body mass index and self-reported health status.

RESULTS

Individuals in the 15%-19.9% LTWL group differed significantly from the reference group (<5% LTWL) in their physical activity and dietary quality (HEI) but not caloric intake. Specifically, they had a higher HEI score (β=3.19; 95% CI 0.39 to 5.99) and were more likely to meet physical activity guidelines (OR=1.99; 95% CI 1.11 to 3.55). In comparison, the ≥20% LTWL group was significantly more likely to smoke (OR=1.63; 95% CI 1.03 to 2.57) and to consume lower daily calories (β=-202.91; 95% CI -345.57 to -60.25) than the reference group; however, dietary quality and physical activity did not significantly differ.

CONCLUSION

Among a national sample of adults, a higher level of LTWL success does not necessarily equate to healthy weight loss behaviours. Future research should attempt to design interventions aimed at facilitating weight loss success while encouraging healthy lifestyle behaviours.

Think positive! Emotional response to assertiveness in positive and negative language promoting preventive health behaviors

OBJECTIVE

There is insufficient evidence for the effectiveness of various tones of communication in modifying health behaviours. We examine the moderating role of assertiveness in the effect of positive/negative language on emotional responses (optimism, self-efficacy, and guilt), and resulting preventive health behaviours.

DESIGN

Three experiments were employed. An online experiment tests the relationship between positive/negative language and assertiveness when people communicate about healthful eating. Next, a field study examines the moderating effect of assertiveness in positive and negative language encouraging using sunscreen among street passers-by. Third, an online study explores whether the effect of assertiveness in positive and negative messages on hand-washing intentions is mediated by increased optimism and self-efficacy, and decreased guilt, respectively.

RESULTS

Positive language increases compliance when expressed assertively because the assertive tone emphasises optimism and self-efficacy. Conversely, negative communication is more effective when expressed non-assertively, because of the replenishing effect of the gentler tone on the guilt evoked by the negative communication.

CONCLUSION

Assertiveness serves as an intensifier of what is being communicated. When considering whether to employ positive or negative language in health messaging, assertiveness should be considered as part of the design of effective health communication strategies leading to health promoting behaviour change.

Physical Activity, Sleep, and Sedentary Behavior among Successful Long-Term Weight Loss Maintainers: Findings from a U.S. National Study

Despite adults’ desire to reduce body mass (weight) for numerous health benefits, few are able to successfully lose at least 5% of their starting weight. There is evidence on the independent associations of physical activity, sedentary behaviors, and sleep with weight loss; however, this study provided insight on the combined effects of these behaviors on long-term body weight loss success. Hence, the purpose of this cross-sectional study was to evaluate the joint relations of sleep, physical activity, and sedentary behaviors with successful long-term weight loss. Data are from the 2005–2006 wave of the National Health and Examination Survey (NHANES). Physical activity and sedentary behavior were measured with an accelerometer, whereas sleep time was self-reported. Physical activity and sleep were dichotomized into meeting guidelines (active/not active, ideal sleep/short sleep), and sedentary time was categorized into prolonged sedentary time (4th quartile) compared to low sedentary time (1st–3rd quartiles). The dichotomized behaviors were combined to form 12 unique behavioral combinations. Two-step multivariable regression models were used to determine the associations between the behavioral combinations with (1) long-term weight loss success (≥5% body mass reduction for ≥12-months) and (2) the amount of body mass reduction among those who were successful. After adjustment for relevant factors, there were no significant associations between any of the independent body weight loss behaviors (physical activity, sedentary time, and sleep) and successful long-term weight loss. However, after combining the behaviors, those who were active (≥150 min MVPA weekly), regardless of their sedentary time, were significantly (p < 0.05) more likely to have long-term weight loss success compared to the inactive and sedentary referent group. These results should be confirmed in longitudinal analyses, including investigation of characteristics of waking (type, domain, and context) and sleep (quality metrics) behaviors for their association with long-term weight loss success.

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease.

METHODS

GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk-outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk-outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk-outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden.

FINDINGS

The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51-12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9-21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12-9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6-16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253-350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3-13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0-9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10-24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25-49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50-74 years and 75 years and older.

INTERPRETATION

Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Trends in tobacco use among children and adolescents in Israel, 1998–2015

Objectives

This study aims to measure trends in cigarette smoking among children and adolescents in Israel, focusing on school grade, sex, and ethnicity. We hypothesized that smoking would be higher among boys and Arab-Israelis, rates would grow with age, and there would be a decline over time.

Methods

Data were derived from the Health Behavior in School-aged Children study between 1998-2015 in Israel. The total sample included 56,513 students in grades 6, 8, and 10, with 29,411 girls and 27,102 boys. Descriptive analysis described trends of smoking behavior according to grade, sex, ethnicity, family affluence, and year of study. Multivariate logistic regression analysis examined predicting variables.

Results

Smoking was higher among boys in all grades, ethnic groups, and years of study, with the highest frequencies among Arab-Israelis. Trends over the years show a decline from 1998-2004, followed by an increase for both sexes. The increase was more prominent among girls. Logistic regression analysis revealed strong associations between smoking and grade, sex, ethnicity, and year of study.

Conclusions

The results of this study can significantly enhance the development and implementation of smoking prevention and control programs among students in Israel.

Key messages

Our calibrated results engender important policy implications for the development of cigarette smoking prevention programs for Israeli youth, specifically in the school environment. health inequities needs to be a key part of a comprehensive strategy when discussing health promotion and development.

Trends in Tobacco Use among Children and Adolescents in Israel, 1998-2015

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to measure trends in cigarette smoking among children and adolescents in Israel, focusing on school grade, sex, and ethnicity. We hypothesized that smoking would be higher among boys and Arab-Israelis, rates would grow with age, and there would be a decline over time.

METHODS

Data were derived from the Health Behavior in School-aged Children study between 1998 and 2015 in Israel. The total sample included 56,513 students in grades 6, 8, and 10, with 29,411 girls and 27,102 boys. Descriptive analysis described trends of smoking behavior according to grade, sex, ethnicity, family affluence, and year of study. multivariate logistic regression analysis examined predicting variables.

RESULTS

Smoking was higher among boys in all grades, ethnic groups, and years of study, with the highest frequencies among Arab-Israelis. Trends over the years show a decline from 1998 to 2004, followed by an increase for both sexes. The increase was more prominent among girls. Logistic regression analysis revealed strong associations between smoking and grade, sex, ethnicity, and year of study.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study can significantly enhance the development and implementation of smoking prevention and control programs among students in Israel.

Health & Wealth: is weight loss success related to monetary savings in U.S. adults of low-income? Findings from a National Study

BACKGROUND

Many individuals aspire to attain various goals in life, such as committing to a healthful diet to slim down or saving for retirement to enhance future welfare. While these behaviors (weight loss and saving) share the common denominator of self-regulation, it is unclear whether success in one domain is related to the other. Therefore, we examined the relationship between long term weight loss (LTWL) success and monetary savings among U.S. adults who at one point in life diverged from normal weight status.

METHODS

Data on 1994 adults with a maximum BMI ≥ 25 kg/m² and with an annual household income equal or less than 200% poverty level. Data were derived from a U.S. population-based study (NHANES). The independent variable was LTWL success (loss maintained for at least 1 year), which was operationalized as < 10% (reference group), 10.00-19.99%, and ≥ 20.00%. The dependent variable was monetary savings (e.g., 401 K), defined as a 3-category ordinal variable. We employed ordered logistic regression to estimate the relationship between LTWL success and increased odds for higher overall savings.

RESULTS

Multivariable analysis revealed that adjusting for income, education and other covariates, being in the highest LTWL category (≥20.00%) significantly reduced the likelihood of monetary savings in comparison to the reference group (OR = 0.55, 95%CI = 0.34-0.91). This relationship was not observed in the lower LTWL category (10.00-19.99%).

CONCLUSIONS

Adults who in the past were overweight or obese and who presently exhibit high levels of LTWL, were markedly less successful when it came to their finances. This might stem from significant cognitive-affective resources exerted during the weight loss process coupled with a paucity of financial resources which impede financial decision making. This supposition, however, warrants future research.

Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2-to end preventable child deaths by 2030-we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000-2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.

Global patterns in excess body weight and the associated cancer burden

The prevalence of excess body weight and the associated cancer burden have been rising over the past several decades globally. Between 1975 and 2016, the prevalence of excess body weight in adults-defined as a body mass index (BMI) ≥ 25 kg/m² -increased from nearly 21% in men and 24% in women to approximately 40% in both sexes. Notably, the prevalence of obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m² ) quadrupled in men, from 3% to 12%, and more than doubled in women, from 7% to 16%. This change, combined with population growth, resulted in a more than 6-fold increase in the number of obese adults, from 100 to 671 million. The largest absolute increase in obesity occurred among men and boys in high-income Western countries and among women and girls in Central Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa. The simultaneous rise in excess body weight in almost all countries is thought to be driven largely by changes in the global food system, which promotes energy-dense, nutrient-poor foods, alongside reduced opportunities for physical activity. In 2012, excess body weight accounted for approximately 3.9% of all cancers (544,300 cases) with proportion varying from less than 1% in low-income countries to 7% or 8% in some high-income Western countries and in Middle Eastern and Northern African countries. The attributable burden by sex was higher for women (368,500 cases) than for men (175,800 cases). Given the pandemic proportion of excess body weight in high-income countries and the increasing prevalence in low- and middle-income countries, the global cancer burden attributable to this condition is likely to increase in the future. There is emerging consensus on opportunities for obesity control through the multisectoral coordinated implementation of core policy actions to promote an environment conducive to a healthy diet and active living. The rapid increase in both the prevalence of excess body weight and the associated cancer burden highlights the need for a rejuvenated focus on identifying, implementing, and evaluating interventions to prevent and control excess body weight.

Ethnic Disparities in Physical Activity among Adolescents in Israel

Objectives: In this study, we examined physical activity (PA) levels among Jewish and Arab adolescents in Israel, as well as factors associated with PA. We used a socio-ecological framework to understand differences in levels of PA across ethnic groups and the factors associated with these differences. Methods: We used data based on the Israeli population as reported in the 2014-15 Health Behavior of School-Aged Children standardized survey, which studied 16,145 Israeli adolescents. Levels of PA, as well as parent, sibling, and peer engagement in PA, in-school PA breaks, and liking PA were measured across ethnic groups and sex. Results: Jewish adolescents reported higher levels of PA. Girls were significantly less physically active than boys in both ethnicities. In addition, we found that family, peer, and school related factors were positively associated with levels of PA. Conclusions: Our findings show a disparity in PA levels by ethnicity among Israel adolescents, which can lead to health disparities. We propose targeted interventions involving the factors affecting PA to reduce health disparities.

Long-Term Weight Loss and Metabolic Health in Adults Concerned With Maintaining or Losing Weight: Findings From NHANES

More than two-thirds of American adults are overweight or obese, with many attempting to lose weight to avoid adverse health outcomes and improve well-being. Achieving long-term weight loss (LTWL) success, defined as reaching at least a 5% to 10% weight loss goal, is challenging, yet important for overall metabolic health. It is currently unclear whether achieving higher thresholds of LTWL is associated with improved health. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to examine the association between LTWL thresholds (5%-9.9%, 10%-14.9%, 15%-19.9%, ≥20%) and metabolic health (metabolic syndrome and metabolic risk z score) among 7670 US adult respondents to the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2007-2014) who were overweight or obese (past or present), were not underweight in the past year, not pregnant, and attempting to lose or maintain weight. A subsample of 3362 participants was used in the analysis of the metabolic risk z score. Multivariable regression models were constructed adjusting for covariates. Results indicate that the lowest and the 2 highest LTWL thresholds were related to lower odds for metabolic syndrome; for example, greater than or equal to 20% LTWL (odds ratio=0.52; 95% CI, 0.23-0.44; P<.001). All LTWL thresholds were significantly associated with the metabolic risk z score, with the largest effect among the 2 highest LTWL thresholds, that is, 15% to 19.9% LTWL (β=-0.45; 95% CI, -0.54 to -0.36; P<.001) and greater than or equal to 20% LTWL (β=-0.35; 95% CI, -0.53 to -0.17; P<.001). In conclusion, although achieving the currently recommended LTWL target was related to improved metabolic health, the 15% LTWL threshold was associated with more favorable outcomes.

Precancer diagnosis cardiorespiratory fitness, physical activity and cancer mortality in men

BACKGROUND

The preventive role of precancer diagnosis cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) and physical activity (PA) in cancer mortality is poorly characterized. The aim of this study was to assess the association between CRF, PA at precancer-diagnosis and cancer mortality in men who diagnosed with cancer later in life.

METHODS

A total of 699 men (63±10 years) who were diagnosed with cancer during 7.5±4.9 years from a baseline treadmill exercise test and reported PA were analyzed. Multivariate Cox models for CRF and univariate model for PA were conducted. Population Attributable Risks (PARs%) and exposure impact number (EIN) of low CRF (<5 METs) and inactivity were determined.

RESULTS

During 6.5±5.2 years from cancer diagnosis, 56% died from cancer. CRF was inversely, graded and independently associated with cancer death. A 1-MET increase and categories of moderate and high CRF were associated with 7%, 28% and 51% reductions in risk of cancer death, respectively. Active compared to inactive individuals had a 23% reduced risk of cancer mortality (HR=0.77, 95% CI [0.63-0.94], P=0.01). PARs% of low CRF and inactivity were 4.8% and 9.4%, respectively, while the respective EIN were 3 and 9.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher CRF and being active at precancer-diagnosis were associated with lower cancer mortality and longer survival time in men who developed cancer later in life. Screening and intervening for low CRF and inactivity as risk factors during middle-age and maintaining at least moderate CRF and activity levels may be effective strategies for prevention of cancer mortality.

Physical Activity in Cancer Survivors During "Re-Entry" Following Cancer Treatment

INTRODUCTION

The transition from active cancer treatment into survivorship, known as re-entry, remains understudied. During re-entry, clinicians can educate survivors on the benefits of healthy behaviors, including physical activity, as survivors adjust to life after cancer. We examine the prevalence of adherence to established aerobic physical activity guidelines (≥150 minutes of moderate-intensity physical activity per week) in addition to related medico-demographic factors among cancer survivors during re-entry.

METHODS

Data from 1,160 breast, colorectal, and prostate cancer survivors participating in the American Cancer Society's National Cancer Survivor Transition Study were examined. Multinomial logistic regression was used to calculate adjusted odds ratios (AOR) for various medico-demographic variables in relation to 4 established levels of physical activity (inactive, insufficiently active, 1-<2 times the guideline level, and ≥2 times the guideline level [referent group]).

RESULTS

Overall, 8.1% were inactive, 34.1% were insufficiently active, 24.3% were within 1 to less than 2 times the guidelines, and 33.4% exceeded guidelines by 2 or more times. Inactive people had significantly higher odds of being women (AOR, 1.88; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.10-3.23) and having lower education levels (AOR, 2.02; 95% CI, 1.21-3.38) compared with those who exceeded guidelines by 2 or more times. Each additional comorbidity was associated with a 26% increase in odds of inactivity (AOR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.08-1.47).

CONCLUSION

Patient education on the benefits of regular physical activity is important for all cancer survivors and may be especially important to review after treatment completion to promote healthy habits during this transition period. Survivors who are women, are less educated, and have comorbid conditions may be less likely to be compliant with physical activity guidelines.

If You Build It, Will They Come? A Quasi-experiment of Sidewalk Improvements and Physical Activity

Improving sidewalks could lead to more physical activity through improved access, while providing a safe and defined space to walk. Yet, findings on the association between sidewalks and physical activity are inconclusive.

PURPOSE

The purpose of this study was to examine changes in self-reported and accelerometer-derived physical activity associated with living near recently improved sidewalks in a diverse, community-based sample from the Houston Travel Related Activity in Neighborhoods (TRAIN) Study.

METHODS

Data are from 430 adults and include baseline and first annual follow-up (2014-2017). Fully adjusted, two-step regression models were built to test the hypothesis that living near (within 250-meters) an improved sidewalk was associated with greater levels of physical activity than not living near an improved sidewalk.

RESULTS

The majority of participants were female, non-Hispanic black, low income, low education, and nearly half lived near at least one improved sidewalk. After adjustment, among participants reporting some physical activity, living near two sidewalk improvements was associated with 1.6 times more minutes per week of walking and leisure-time physical activity than those not living near a sidewalk improvement (p<0.05). Based on accelerometry, which does not specifically quantify domain-specific physical activity, there were no significant associations.

CONCLUSION

Although these mixed findings warrant further research, results suggest that improving sidewalks may have an effect on participants' physical activity. Nonspecific definitions of sidewalk improvements could be contributing to type 1 error. Future work should also examine behavioral interventions alongside changes to the built environment to determine the effects on physical activity.

The intergenerational transmission of obesity: The role of time preferences and self-control

Previous research has found that impatient time preferences and self-control problems (present bias) are related to increased obesity risk. However, scant evidence exists pertaining to whether parents' impatience and self-control problems impact the obesity status of their children, too. Accordingly, we explore this study question among a large national sample of US adults and their children. Study results confirm previous findings indicating that intertemporal preferences are related to adults' obesity status. Moreover, these results extend the literature by finding that children of impatient or present-biased parents have a significantly higher likelihood of being obese, too. Specifically, parents' low levels of patience and present bias were each independently related to a five-percentage point increase in the likelihood of obesity of their children. These findings were more pronounced when all children were combined in analyses and for the first child; however, they varied for the second and third child. Thus, findings suggest that parents' time preferences and self-control problems likely affect not only their own weight status but that of their children.

Walking in Relation to Mortality in a Large Prospective Cohort of Older U.S. Adults

INTRODUCTION

Engaging in >150 minutes of moderate-intensity or 75 minutes of vigorous-intensity physical activity weekly is recommended for optimal health. The relationship between walking, the most common activity especially for older adults, and total mortality is not well documented.

METHODS

Data from a large U.S. prospective cohort study including 62,178 men (mean age 70.7 years) and 77,077 women (mean age 68.9 years), among whom 24,688 men and 18,933 women died during 13 years of follow-up (1999-2012), were used to compute multivariable-adjusted hazard rate ratios and 95% CIs for walking as the sole form of activity or adjusted for other moderate- or vigorous-intensity physical activity in relation to total and cause-specific mortality (data analysis 2015-2016).

RESULTS

Inactivity compared with walking only at less than recommended levels was associated with higher all-cause mortality (hazard rate ratio=1.26, 95% CI=1.21, 1.31). Meeting one to two times the recommendations through walking only was associated with lower all-cause mortality (hazard rate ratio=0.80, 95% CI=0.78, 0.83). Associations with walking adjusted for other moderate- or vigorous-intensity physical activity were similar to walking only. Walking was most strongly associated with respiratory disease mortality followed by cardiovascular disease mortality and then cancer mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

In older adults, walking below minimum recommended levels is associated with lower all-cause mortality compared with inactivity. Walking at or above physical activity recommendations is associated with even greater decreased risk. Walking is simple, free, and does not require any training, and thus is an ideal activity for most Americans, especially as they age.

Transit use and physical activity: Findings from the Houston travel-related activity in neighborhoods (TRAIN) study

Transportation-related physical activity can significantly increase daily total physical activity through active transportation or walking/biking to transit stops. The purpose of this study was to assess the relations between transit-use and self-reported and monitor-based physical activity levels in a predominantly minority population from the Houston Travel-Related Activity in Neighborhoods (TRAIN) Study. This was a cross-sectional analysis of 865 adults living in Houston, Texas between 2013 and 2015. The exposure variable was transit-use (non-users, occasional users, and primary users). Self-reported and accelerometer-determined physical activity were the outcomes of interest. Regression models adjusting for age, sex, race/ethnicity, and other covariates of interest were built to test the hypothesis that transit user status was directly associated with 1) minutes of moderate-intensity physical activity and 2) the prevalence of achieving the physical activity guidelines. The majority of participants were female, non-Hispanic black, and almost one-third had a high school education or less. After adjustment, primary transit-use was associated with 134.2 (p < 0.01) additional mean minutes per week of self-reported moderate-intensity transportation-related physical activity compared to non-users. Further, primary users had 7.3 (95% CI: 2.6-20.1) times the relative adjusted odds of meeting physical activity recommendations than non-users based on self-reported transportation-related physical activity. There were no statistically significant associations of transit-use with self-reported leisure-time or accelerometer-derived physical activity. Transit-use has the potential for a large public health impact due to its sustainability and scalability. Therefore, encouraging the use of transit as a means to promote physical activity should be examined in future studies.

Income, physical activity, sedentary behavior, and the 'weekend warrior' among U.S. adults

The present study examines the association between income and physical activity intensity along the entire continuum using accelerometry in a nationally representative sample of U.S. adults. Specifically, we assessed the relationship between annual household income, sedentary behavior, light, and moderate-vigorous intensity physical activity, and meeting physical activity guidelines over a brief, 2-day period ('weekend warrior'), and during the entire week. The sample consisted of 5206 National Health and Examination Survey adult participants (2003-2006) who wore accelerometers and completed pertinent survey questions. Ordinary Least Square models were computed to examine the relationship between income and the dependent variables (sedentary behavior, light, and moderate to vigorous intensity activity) adjusting for covariates. Logistic regression was employed to examine the association between income and meeting physical activity guidelines during a 2-day and 7-day time-period. Results indicate that individuals with an annual income of ≥$75,000 engaged in 4.6 more daily minutes of moderate to vigorous activity (p-value<0.01), in comparison to the reference group (<$20,000 annual income). Those in the high-income strata were 1.6 and 1.9 times more likely to meet physical activity guidelines during a 2 and 7-day period (respectively) than their lower income counterparts (p<0.05 for both). Further, those in the high-income strata spent 11.8 more minutes daily being sedentary than their lower income counterparts (p-value<0.01). In conclusion, higher annual household income is related to more intense, less frequent (per week) patterns of physical activity and more daily sedentary time.

Ecological Momentary Assessment of Physical Activity: Validation Study

Background

Ecological momentary assessment (EMA) may elicit physical activity (PA) estimates that are less prone to bias than traditional self-report measures while providing context.

Objectives

The objective of this study was to examine the convergent validity of EMA-assessed PA compared with accelerometry.

Methods

The participants self-reported their PA using International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ) and Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and wore an accelerometer while completing daily EMAs (delivered through the mobile phone) for 7 days. Weekly summary estimates included sedentary time and moderate-, vigorous-, and moderate-to vigorous-intensity physical activity (MVPA). Spearman coefficients and Lin’s concordance correlation coefficients (LCC) examined the linear association and agreement for EMA and the questionnaires as compared with accelerometry.

Results

Participants were aged 43.3 (SD 13.1) years, 51.7% (123/238) were African American, 74.8% (178/238) were overweight or obese, and 63.0% (150/238) were low income. The linear associations of EMA and traditional self-reports with accelerometer estimates were statistically significant (P<.05) for sedentary time (EMA: ρ=.16), moderate-intensity PA (EMA: ρ=.29; BRFSS: ρ=.17; IPAQ: ρ=.24), and MVPA (EMA: ρ=.31; BRFSS: ρ=.17; IPAQ: ρ=.20). Only EMA estimates of PA were statistically significant compared with accelerometer for agreement.

Conclusions

The mobile EMA showed better correlation and agreement to accelerometer estimates than traditional self-report methods. These findings suggest that mobile EMA may be a practical alternative to accelerometers to assess PA in free-living settings.