Patterns of engagement in care during clients' first 12 months after HIV treatment initiation in South Africa: A retrospective cohort analysis using routinely collected data

Retention on antiretroviral therapy (ART) during the early treatment period is one of the most serious challenges facing HIV programs, but the timing and patterns of early disengagement from care remain poorly understood. We describe patterns of engagement in HIV care during the first year after treatment initiation. We analysed retrospective datasets of routinely collected electronic medical register (EMR) data for ≥18-year-old clients who initiated ART at public sector clinics in South Africa after 01/01/2018 and had ≥14 months of potential follow-up. Using scheduled visit dates, we characterized engagement in care as continuous (no treatment interruption), cyclical (at least one visit >28 days late with a return visit observed) or disengaged (visit not attended and no evidence of return). We report 6- and 12-month patterns of retention in care and viral suppression. Among 35,830 participants (65% female, median age 33), in months 0-6, 59% were continuously in care, 14% had engaged cyclically, 11% had transferred to another facility, 1% had died, and 16% had disengaged from care at the initiating facility. Among disengagers in the first 6 months, 58% did not return after their initiation visit. By 12 months after initiation, the overall proportion disengaged was 23%, 45% were classified as continuously engaged in months 7-12, and only 38% of the cohort had maintained continuous engagement at both the 6- and 12-month endpoints. Participants who were cyclically engaged in months 0-6 were nearly twice as likely to disengage in months 7-12 as were continuous engagers in months 0-6 (relative risk 1.76, 95% CI:1.61-1.91) and were more likely to have an unsuppressed viral load by 12 months on ART (RR = 1.28; 95% CI1.13-1.44). The needs of continuous and cyclical engagers and those disengaging at different timepoints may vary and require different interventions or models of care.

Preferences for services in a patient's first six months on antiretroviral therapy for HIV in South Africa and Zambia (PREFER): research protocol for a prospective observational cohort study

Background

For patients on HIV treatment in sub-Saharan Africa, the highest risk for loss from care remains the first six months after antiretroviral (ART) initiation, when patients are not yet eligible for differentiated service delivery (DSD) models that offer lower-burden, patient-centred care and thus improve treatment outcomes. To reduce early disengagement from care, the PREFER study will use a sequential mixed-methods approach to describe the characteristics, needs, concerns, and preferences of patients in South Africa and Zambia 0-6 months after ART initiation or re-initiation.

Protocol

PREFER is an observational, prospective cohort study of adults on ART for ≤6 months at 12 public healthcare facilities in Zambia and 18 in South Africa. Its objective is to describe and understand the needs and preferences of initiating and re-initiating ART clients to inform the design of DSD models for the early HIV treatment period, improve early treatment outcomes, and distinguish the barriers encountered by naïve patients from those facing re-initiators. It has four components: 1) survey of clients 0-6 months after ART initiation (identify characteristics and preferences of clients starting ART); 2) follow up through routinely collected medical records for <24 months after enrollment (describe resource utilization and patterns and predictors of engagement in care); 3) focus group discussions and discrete choice experiment (explore reported barriers to and facilitators of retention); and 4) in South Africa only, collection of blood samples (assess the prevalence of ARV metabolites indicating prior ART use).

Conclusions

PREFER aims to understand why the early treatment period is so challenging and how service delivery can be amended to address the obstacles that lead to early disengagement from care. It will generate information about client characteristics and preferences to help respond to patients' needs and design better strategies for service delivery and improve resource allocation going forward.

Prior exposure to antiretroviral therapy among adult patients presenting for HIV treatment initiation or reinitiation in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

As countries have scaled up access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV, attrition rates of up to 30% annually have created a large pool of individuals who initiate treatment with prior ART experience. Little is known about the proportion of non-naïve reinitiators within the population presenting for treatment initiation.

DESIGN

Systematic review of published articles and abstracts reporting proportions of non-naïve adult patients initiating ART in sub-Saharan Africa.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed, Embase Elsevier, Web of Science Core Collection, International AIDS Society conferences, Conference on Retroviruses and Opportunistic Infections conferences.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Clinical trials and observational studies; reporting on adults in sub-Saharan Africa who initiated lifelong ART; published in English between 1 January 2018 and 11 July 2023 and with data collected after January 2016. Initiator self-report, laboratory discernment of antiretroviral metabolites, and viral suppression at initiation or in the medical record were accepted as evidence of prior exposure.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

We captured study and sample characteristics, proportions with previous ART exposure and the indicator of previous exposure reported. We report results of each eligible study, estimate the risk of bias and identify gaps in the literature.

RESULTS

Of 2740 articles, 11 articles describing 12 cohorts contained sufficient information for the review. Proportions of initiators with evidence of prior ART use ranged from 5% (self-report only) to 53% (presence of ART metabolites in hair or blood sample). The vast majority of screened studies did not report naïve/non-naïve status. Metrics used to determine and report non-naïve proportions were inconsistent and difficult to interpret.

CONCLUSIONS

The proportion of patients initiating HIV treatment who are truly ART naïve is not well documented. It is likely that 20%-50% of ART patients who present for ART are reinitiators. Standard reporting metrics and diligence in reporting are needed, as is research to understand the reluctance of patients to report prior ART exposure.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42022324136.

Change in body weight and risk of hypertension after switching from efavirenz to dolutegravir in adults living with HIV: evidence from routine care in Johannesburg, South Africa

BACKGROUND

The integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI) dolutegravir is recommended in World Health Organization guidelines, but is associated with weight gain. We evaluated weight change in patients switching from efavirenz to dolutegravir in first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Johannesburg, South Africa.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective cohort study of adults (≥16 years) of black African ancestry with HIV who initiated ART between January 2010-December 2020. Patients were propensity score-matched 1:1 (unexposed i.e. remaining on efavirenz: exposed i.e. switched from efavirenz to dolutegravir) on sex, age, months on ART, first ART regimen, haemoglobin, body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, viral load and CD4 count. We used linear regression to assess the effect of switching from efavirenz to dolutegravir on weight change and hypertension 12 months after exposure.

FINDINGS

We matched 794 patients switching to dolutegravir to 794 remaining on efavirenz. Exposed patients had a higher mean change in weight (1.78 kg; 95% confidence interval (CI):1.04,2.52 kg) from start of follow-up to 12 months vs. unexposed. We also found a 14.2 percentage point increase (95% CI: 10.6,17.7) in the risk of hypertension in those exposed to dolutegravir vs those that remained on efavirenz.

INTERPRETATION

In a real-world population, patients gained more weight and were at higher risk of hypertension after switching from efavirenz to dolutegravir than those remaining on efavirenz. Longer follow-up is needed, however, to determine if INSTI-associated weight gain is associated with changes in non-communicable disease risk over the long-term, or whether weight gain is sustained, as seen in clinical trials.

FUNDING

This study has been made possible by the generous support of the American People and the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), under the terms of cooperative agreement cooperative Agreement 72067419CA00004. In addition to the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (NIDDK) 1K01MH105320-01A1.

Assessment of facility-level antiretroviral treatment patient status utilizing a national-level laboratory cohort: Toward an understanding of system-level tracking and clinic switching in South Africa

Background

Most estimates of HIV retention are derived at the clinic level through antiretroviral (ART) patient management systems, which capture ART clinic visit data, yet these cannot account for silent transfers across HIV treatment sites. Patient laboratory monitoring visits may also be observed in routinely collected laboratory data, which include ART monitoring tests such as CD4 count and HIV viral load, key to our work here.

Methods

In this analysis, we utilized the NHLS National HIV Cohort (a system-wide viewpoint) to investigate the accuracy of facility-level estimates of retention in care for adult patients accessing care (defined using clinic visit data on patients under ART recorded in an electronic patient management system) at Themba Lethu Clinic (TLC). Furthermore, we describe patterns of facility switching among all patients and those patients classified as lost to follow-up (LTFU) at the facility level.

Results

Of the 43,538 unique patients in the TLC dataset, we included 20,093 of 25,514 possible patient records (78.8%) in our analysis that were linked with the NHLS National Cohort, and we restricted the analytic sample to patients initiating ART between 1 January 2007 and 31 December 2017. Most (60%) patients were female, and the median age (IQR) at ART initiation was 37 (31-45) years. We found the laboratory records augmented retention estimates by a median of 860 additional active records (about 8% of all median active records across all years) from the facility viewpoint; this augmentation was more noticeable from the system-wide viewpoint, which added evidence of activity of about one-third of total active records in 2017. In 2017, we found 7.0% misclassification at the facility-level viewpoint, a gap which is potentially solvable through data integration/triangulation. We observed 1,134/20,093 (5.6%) silent transfers; these were noticeably more female and younger than the entire dataset. We also report the most common locations for clinic switching at a provincial level.

Discussion

Integration of multiple data sources has the potential to reduce the misclassification of patients as being lost to care and help understand situations where clinic switching is common. This may help in prioritizing interventions that would assist patients moving between clinics and hopefully contribute to services that normalize formal transfers and fewer silent transfers.

Cohort profile: the South African National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) National HIV Cohort

PURPOSE

South Africa's National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) National HIV Cohort was established in 2015 to facilitate monitoring, evaluation and research on South Africa's National HIV Treatment Programme. In South Africa, 84.8% of people living with HIV know their HIV status; 70.7% who know their status are on ART; and 87.4% on ART are virologically suppressed.

PARTICIPANTS

The NHLS National HIV Cohort includes the laboratory data of nearly all patients receiving HIV care in the public sector since April 2004. Patients are included in the cohort if they have received a CD4 count or HIV RNA viral load (VL) test. Using an anonymised unique patient identifier that we have developed and validated to linked test results, we observe patients prospectively through their laboratory results as they receive HIV care and treatment. Patients in HIV care are seen for laboratory monitoring every 6-12 months. Data collected include age, sex, facility location and test results for CD4 counts, VLs and laboratory tests used to screen for potential treatment complications.

FINDINGS TO DATE

From April 2004 to April 2018, 63 million CD4 count and VL tests were conducted at 5483 facilities. 12.6 million unique patients had at least one CD4 count or VL, indicating they had accessed HIV care, and 7.1 million patients had a VL test indicating they had started antiretroviral therapy. The creation of NHLS National HIV Cohort has enabled longitudinal research on all lab-monitored patients in South Africa's national HIV programme, including analyses of (1) patient health at presentation; (2) care outcomes such as 'CD4 recovery', 'retention in care' and 'viral resuppression'; (3) patterns of transfer and re-entry into care; (4) facility-level variation in care outcomes; and (5) impacts of policies and guideline changes.

FUTURE PLANS

Continuous updating of the cohort, integration with available clinical data, and expansion to include tuberculosis and other lab-monitored comorbidities.

Adolescent retention in HIV care within differentiated service-delivery models in sub-Saharan Africa

Adolescents and young people living with HIV are at risk of disengaging from HIV care at all stages of the care cascade. Differentiated models of care offer simplified HIV-service delivery options in the hope of improving treatment outcomes, including retention on antiretroviral therapy. However, it remains unclear how successful and widespread these models are for adolescents in sub-Saharan Africa, where the burden of HIV is the greatest. Very few differentiated models of care specifically targeted to adolescents can be found and this priority group are currently ineligible from several models that exist. Where differentiated care has been made available to adolescents, data on the implementation and effectiveness of these interventions remain scarce. Despite this scarcity of evidence on the effectiveness of differentiated care among adolescent populations, several interventions, particularly community-based groups with peer navigators or supporters, might have potential to increase the reach, effectiveness, and adoption of differentiated care in adolescent HIV-care programmes.

One Pill, Once a Day: Simplified Treatment Regimens and Retention in HIV Care

Simplified drug regimens may improve retention in care for persons with chronic diseases. In April 2013, South Africa adopted a once-daily single-pill human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment regimen as the standard of care, replacing a multiple-pill regimen. Because the regimens had similar biological efficacy, the shift to single-pill therapy offered a real-world test of the impact of simplified drug-delivery mechanisms on patient behavior. Using a quasi-experimental regression discontinuity design, we assessed retention in care among patients starting HIV treatment just before and just after the guideline change. The study included 4,484 patients starting treatment at a large public sector clinic in Johannesburg, South Africa. The share of patients prescribed a single-pill regimen increased by over 40 percentage points between March and April 2013. Initiating treatment after the policy change was associated with 11.7-percentage-points' higher retention at 12 months (95% confidence interval: -2.2, 29.4). Findings were robust to different measures of retention, different bandwidths, and different statistical models. Patients starting treatment early in HIV infection-a key population in the test-and-treat era-experienced the greatest improvements in retention from single-pill regimens.

Retention in care and viral suppression after same-day ART initiation: One-year outcomes of the SLATE I and II individually randomized clinical trials in South Africa

Introduction

Same‐day initiation (SDI) of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV consistently increases ART uptake, but concerns remain about higher attrition from care after initiation. We analysed 12‐month retention in the SLATE SDI trials.

Methods

SLATE I (Simplified Algorithms for Treatment Eligibility I, enrolment 06 March–28 July 2017) and SLATE II (enrolment 14 March–18 September 2018) were individually randomized trials at public outpatient clinics in Johannesburg that enrolled patients not yet on ART and administered the SLATE I or II algorithm. This included a symptom self‐report, medical history, brief physical examination and readiness questionnaire to assess the eligibility for SDI. The studies compared the offer of SDI using the SLATE algorithms to standard of care initiation procedures. ART uptake and early retention were previously reported. Using routine clinic records, we conducted a pooled analysis of retention in care and HIV viral suppression 14 months after study enrolment, a time point equivalent to 12 months potential on ART, with an additional month allowed on either end to initiate ART and to return for the 12‐month visit.

Results and discussion

We enrolled 1193 study participants (standard arms, n = 599, 50%; intervention arms, n = 594, 50%) and analysed by originally assigned groups. By 14 months after enrolment, 50% of intervention arm patients and 46% of standard arm patients remained in care at the initiating site (crude risk difference 4% (95% confidence interval −1%‐10%); crude relative risk 1.10 (0.97–1.23), with similar viral suppression between arms. Observed attrition from care at site by 14 months was high in both study arms, but we found no evidence that the offer of SDI led to greater overall attrition or lower rates of viral suppression 1 year after starting ART and may have generated small improvements. SDI may have shifted some attrition from before to after dispensing of the first dose of medication.

Conclusions

An offer of SDI of ART, following a carefully designed protocol to identify patients who are eligible and ready to start treatment, is not inherently associated with an overall increase in patient attrition from care and leads to similar rates of viral suppression.

Trial registration

Clinicaltrials.gov NCT02891135, registered 01 September 2016. First participant enrolled 06 March 2017 in South Africa. Clinicaltrials.gov NCT03315013, registered 19 October 2017. First participant enrolled 14 March 2018.

Variation in HIV care and treatment outcomes by facility in South Africa, 2011-2015: A cohort study

BACKGROUND

Despite widespread availability of HIV treatment, patient outcomes differ across facilities. We propose and evaluate an approach to measure quality of HIV care at health facilities in South Africa's national HIV program using routine laboratory data.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Data were extracted from South Africa's National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) Corporate Data Warehouse. All CD4 counts, viral loads (VLs), and other laboratory tests used in HIV monitoring were linked, creating a validated patient identifier. We constructed longitudinal HIV care cascades for all patients in the national HIV program, excluding data from the Western Cape and very small facilities. We then estimated for each facility in each year (2011 to 2015) the following cascade measures identified a priori as reflecting quality of HIV care: median CD4 count among new patients; retention 12 months after presentation; 12-month retention among patients established in care; viral suppression; CD4 recovery; monitoring after an elevated VL. We used factor analysis to identify an underlying measure of quality of care, and we assessed the persistence of this quality measure over time. We then assessed spatiotemporal variation and facility and population predictors in a multivariable regression context. We analyzed data on 3,265 facilities with a median (IQR) annual size of 441 (189 to 988) lab-monitored HIV patients. Retention 12 months after presentation increased from 42% to 47% during the study period, and viral suppression increased from 66% to 79%, although there was substantial variability across facilities. We identified an underlying measure of quality of HIV care that correlated with all cascade measures except median CD4 count at presentation. Averaging across the 5 years of data, this quality score attained a reliability of 0.84. Quality was higher for clinics (versus hospitals), in rural (versus urban) areas, and for larger facilities. Quality was lower in high-poverty areas but was not independently associated with percent Black. Quality increased by 0.49 (95% CI 0.46 to 0.53) standard deviations from 2011 to 2015, and there was evidence of geospatial autocorrelation (p < 0.001). The study's limitations include an inability to fully adjust for underlying patient risk, reliance on laboratory data which do not capture all relevant domains of quality, potential for errors in record linkage, and the omission of Western Cape.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed persistent differences in HIV care and treatment outcomes across South African facilities. Targeting low-performing facilities for additional support could reduce overall burden of disease.

Attrition in HIV care following HIV diagnosis: a comparison of the pre-UTT and UTT eras in South Africa

INTRODUCTION

Policies for Universal Test & Treat (UTT) and same-day initiation (SDI) of antiretroviral therapy (ART) were instituted in South Africa in September 2016 and 2017 respectively. However, there is limited evidence on whether these changes have improved patient retention after HIV diagnosis.

METHODS

We enrolled three cohorts of newly diagnosed HIV-infected adults from two primary health clinics in Johannesburg from April to November 2015 (Pre-UTT, N = 144), May-September 2017 (UTT, N = 178) and October-December 2017 (SDI, N = 88). A baseline survey was administered immediately after HIV diagnosis after which follow-up using clinical records (paper charts, electronic health records and laboratory data) ensued for 12 months. The primary outcome was patient loss to follow-up (being >90 days late for the last scheduled appointment) at 12 months post-HIV diagnosis. We modelled attrition across HIV policy periods with Cox proportional hazard regression.

RESULTS

Overall, 410 of 580 screened HIV-positive patients were enrolled. Overall, attrition at 12 months was 30% lower in the UTT guideline period (38.2%) compared to pre-UTT (47.2%, aHR 0.7, 95% CI: 0.5 to 1.0). However, the total attrition was similar between the SDI (47.7%) and pre-UTT cohorts (aHR 1.0, 95% CI: 0.7 to 1.5). Older age at HIV diagnosis (aHR 0.5 for ≥40 vs. 25 to 29 years, 95% CI: 0.3 to 0.8) and being in a non-marital relationship (aHR 0.5 vs. being single, 95% CI: 0.3 to 0.8) protected against LTFU at 12 months, whereas LTFU rates increased with longer travel time to the diagnosing clinic (aHR 1.8 for ≥30 minutes vs. ≤15 minutes, 95% CI: 1.1 to 3.1). In analyses adjusted for the time-varying ART initiation status, compared to the pre-ART period of care, the hazard of on-ART LTFU was 90% higher among participants diagnosed under the SDI policy compared to pre-UTT (aHR 1.9, 95% CI: 1.1 to 2.9).

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, nearly two-fifths of HIV positive patients are likely to disengage from care by 12 months after HIV diagnosis under the new SDI policy. Furthermore, the increase in on-ART patient attrition after the introduction of the SDI policy is cause for concern. Further research is needed to determine the best way for rapidly initiating patients on ART and also reducing long-term attrition from care.

Impact of Viral Load Monitoring on Retention and Viral Suppression: A Regression Discontinuity Analysis of South Africa's National Laboratory Cohort

South African guidelines recommend repeat viral load testing within 6 months when human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) viral loads exceed 1,000 copies/mL. We assessed whether South African facilities follow viral load monitoring guidelines and whether guidelines improve HIV-related outcomes, using a regression discontinuity design in a national HIV cohort of 174,574 patients (2013-2015). We assessed whether patients with viral loads just above versus just below 1,000 copies/mL were more likely to receive repeat testing in 6 months, and we compared differences in clinic transfers, retention, and viral suppression. The majority (67%) of patients with viral loads of >1,000 copies/mL did not receive repeat testing within 6 months, and these patients were 8.0% (95% confidence interval (CI): 6.2, 9.7) more likely to receive repeat testing compared with ≤1,000 copies/mL. Eligibility for repeat testing (>1,000 copies/mL) was associated with greater 12-month retention (risk difference = 2.9%, 95% CI: 0.6, 5.2) and combined suppression and retention (risk difference = 5.8%, 95% CI: 3.0, 8.6). Patients with viral loads of >1,000 copies/mL who actually received repeat testing were 85.2% more likely to be both retained and virally suppressed at 12 months (95% CI: 35.9, 100.0). Viral load monitoring might improve patient outcomes, but most patients with elevated viral loads do not receive monitoring within recommended timelines.

The South African National HIV Pregnancy Cohort: evaluating continuity of care among women living with HIV

BACKGROUND

South Africa is home to more people living with HIV than any other country, including nearly one in three pregnant women attending antenatal care. Access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) has increased substantially since the start of the national ART program in 2004, with > 95% ART coverage during pregnancy and delivery, and vertical transmission of HIV greatly reduced. However, women who initiate ART during pregnancy are at heightened risk of dropping out of care, particularly after delivery, leading to the potential for viral transmission, morbidity and mortality. It is difficult to evaluate the success of policies of expanded access to ART care, and assess continuity of care, due to the lack of a national longitudinal HIV care database. Also, patient movement between unlinked facilities. For the first time on a national level, we propose to utilize routinely-collected laboratory data to develop and validate a cohort of pregnant women living with HIV in South Africa in a way that is uniquely robust to facility transfer.

METHODS

Using laboratory test data matched to facility type, we will identify entry to antenatal care to build the cohort, then describe key treatment milestones, including 1) engagement in antenatal care, 2) initiation of ART, 3) HIV viremia, and 4) continuity of HIV care in the postpartum period. Second, we will measure the effect of system-wide factors impacting continuity of care among pregnant women. We will assess policies of expanded treatment access on continuity of care using regression-discontinuity analyses. We then will assess mobility and its effect on continuity of care during and after pregnancy. Third, we will identify individual-level risk factors for loss from HIV care in order to develop targeted interventions to improve engagement in HIV care.

DISCUSSION

This work will create the world's largest national cohort of pregnant women living with HIV. This novel cohort will be a powerful tool available to policymakers, clinicians and researchers for improving our understanding of engagement in care among pregnant women in South Africa and assessing the performance of the South African national ART program in caring for pregnant women living with HIV.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

N/A (not a clinical trial).

Prevalence of TB symptoms, diagnosis and treatment among people living with HIV (PLHIV) not on ART presenting at outpatient clinics in South Africa and Kenya: baseline results from a clinical trial

OBJECTIVE

We used screening data and routine clinic records for intervention arm patients in the Simplified Algorithm for Treatment Eligibility (SLATE) trials to describe the prevalence of tuberculosis (TB) symptoms, diagnosis and treatment among people living with HIV (PLHIV), not on antiretroviral therapy (ART) and presenting at outpatient clinics in South Africa and Kenya. We compared the performance of the WHO four-symptom TB screening tool with a baseline Xpert test.

SETTING

Outpatient HIV clinics in South Africa and Kenya.

PARTICIPANTS

Eligible patients were non-pregnant, PLHIV, >18 years of age, not on ART, willing to provide written informed consent. A total of 594 patients in South Africa and 240 in Kenya were eligible.

RESULTS

Prevalence of any TB symptom was 38% in Kenya, 35% (SLATE I) and 47% (SLATE II) in South Africa. During SLATE I, 70% of patients in Kenya and 57% in South Africa with ≥1 TB symptom were tested for TB. In SLATE II, 79% of patients with ≥1 TB symptom were tested. Of those, 19% tested positive for TB in Kenya, 15% (SLATE I) and 5% (SLATE II) tested positive in South Africa. Of the 28 patients who tested positive in both trials, 20 initiated TB treatment. The lowest median CD4 counts were among those with active TB (Kenya 124 cells/mm³; South Africa 193 cells/mm³). When comparing the WHO four-symptom screening tool to the Xpert test (SLATE II), we found that increasing the number of symptoms required for a positive screen from one to three or four decreased sensitivity but increased the positive predictive value to >30%.

CONCLUSIONS

80% of patients assessed for ART initiation presented with ≥1 TB symptoms. Reconsideration of the 'any symptom' rule may be appropriate, with ART initiation among patients with fewer/milder symptoms commencing while TB test results are pending.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT02891135 and NCT03315013.

A clinical algorithm for same-day HIV treatment initiation in settings with high TB symptom prevalence in South Africa: The SLATE II individually randomized clinical trial

BACKGROUND

Many countries encourage same-day initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART), but evidence on eligibility for same-day initiation, how best to implement it, and its impact on outcomes remains scarce. Building on the Simplified Algorithm for Treatment Eligibility (SLATE) I trial, in which nearly half of participants were ineligible for same-day initiation mainly because of TB symptoms, the study evaluated the revised SLATE II algorithm, which allowed same-day initiation for patients with mild TB symptoms and other less serious reasons for delay.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

SLATE II was a nonblinded, 1:1 individually randomized pragmatic trial at three primary healthcare clinics in Johannesburg, South Africa. It randomized adult patients presenting for an HIV test or any HIV care but not yet on ART. Intervention arm patients were assessed with a symptom screen, medical history, brief physical examination, and readiness questionnaire to distinguish between patients eligible for immediate ART dispensing and those requiring further care before initiation. Standard arm patients received usual care. Follow-up was by review of routine clinic records. Primary outcomes were (1) ART initiation in ≤7 days and (2) ART initiation in ≤28 days and retention in care at 8 months (composite outcome). From 14 March to 18 September 2018, 593 adult HIV+, nonpregnant patients were enrolled (median interquartile range [IQR] age 35 [29-43]; 63% (n = 373) female; median CD4 count 293 [133-487]). Half of study patients (n = 295) presented with TB symptoms, whereas only 13 (4%) standard arm and 7 (2%) intervention arm patients tested positive for TB disease. Among 140 intervention arm patients with TB symptoms, 72% were eligible for same-day initiation. Initiation was higher in the intervention (n = 296) versus standard arm (n = 297) by 7 days (91% versus 68%; risk difference [RD] 23% [95% confidence interval (CI) 17%-29%]) and 28 days (94% versus 82%; RD 12% [7%-17%]) after enrollment. In total, 87% of intervention and 38% of standard arm patients initiated on the same day. By 8 months after study enrollment, 74% (220/296) of intervention and 59% (175/297) of standard arm patients had both initiated ART in ≤28 days and been retained in care (RD 15% [7%-23%]). Among the 41% of participants with viral load results available, suppression was 90% in the standard arm and 92% in the intervention arm among patients initiated in ≤28 days. No ART-associated adverse events were reported after initiation; two intervention and four standard arm patients were reported to have died during passive follow-up. Limitations of the study included limited geographic generalizability, exclusion of patients too sick to consent, fluctuations in procedures in the standard arm over the course of the study, high fidelity to the trial protocol by study staff, and the possibility of overestimating loss to follow-up due to data constraints.

CONCLUSIONS

More than 85% of patients presenting for HIV testing or care, including those newly diagnosed, were eligible and ready for same-day initiation under the SLATE II algorithm. The algorithm increased initiation within 7 days without appearing to compromise retention and viral suppression at 8 months, offering a practical and acceptable approach that can be widely and immediately utilized by existing providers.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Clinicaltrials.gov NCT03315013, registered 19 October 2017. First participant enrolled 14 March 2018.

Delays in repeat HIV viral load testing for those with elevated viral loads: a national perspective from South Africa

INTRODUCTION

In South Africa, HIV patients with an elevated viral load (VL) should receive repeat VL testing after adherence counselling. We set out to use a national HIV Cohort to describe time to repeat viral load testing across South Africa and identify predictors of time to repeat testing.

METHODS

We conducted a cohort study of prospectively collected laboratory data. HIV treatment guidelines have changed over time in South Africa, but call for repeat VL testing within six months if 400 to 1000 copies/mL and two to three months if >1000 copies/mL. We included patients with suppressed viral loads (indicating they are on ART) and a first elevated VL (>400 copies/mL) between April 2004 and December 2014. Follow-up began at first elevated VL and continued until repeat testing, loss to follow-up or December 2016. We calculated adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) using Cox proportional hazard models.

RESULTS

Of 371,648 patients with a VL > 400, 83.9% (311,790) had a repeat VL, in a median (IQR) of 7.0 (4.1 to 12.2) months. Of those with a first viral load 400 to 1000 copies/mL, 56.4% had a repeat VL within guideline recommended six months (defined as up to nine months), whereas among those >1000 copies/mL only 47.7% had a repeat viral load within guideline recommended two to three months (defined as up to six months). We found a small increase in repeat testing associated with higher VL value (aHR 1.11; 95% CI: 1.10 to 1.12 comparing >1000 vs 400 to 1000 copies/mL) and very low CD4 counts at first elevated VL (aHR 1.16; 95% CI: 1.13 to 1.19 comparing CD4 < 50 vs <500 cells/mm3 ). We also found strong variation in time to repeat VL testing by province.

CONCLUSIONS

Median time to repeat viral load testing for those with an elevated viral load was longer than guidelines recommend. Future work should identify whether delays are due to patient or provider factors.

Impact of the test and treat policy on delays in antiretroviral therapy initiation among adult HIV positive patients from six clinics in Johannesburg, South Africa: results from a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To assess delays to antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation before and after the Universal Test and Treat (UTT) and the same-day initiation (SDI) of ART policy periods in Johannesburg, South Africa.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Patients were recruited from six primary health clinics in Johannesburg.

PARTICIPANTS

Overall, 1029 newly diagnosed HIV positive adults (≥18 years) were consecutively enrolled by referral from the testing counsellor between April and December 2015 (pre-UTT n=146), July and August 2017 (UTT, n=141) and October 2017 and August 2018 (SDI, n=742).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess predictors of 30 days ART initiation. Additionally, predictors of immediate ART initiation were evaluated using Poisson regression.

RESULTS

Overall, 30 days ART proportions were 71.9% overall, 36.9% pre-UTT (44.3% of those eligible), 65.9% under UTT and 79.9% under the SDI policy. The median days to ART initiation declined from 21 pre-UTT (IQR: 15-30) to 8 (IQR: 6-16) under UTT and 5 days (IQR: 0-8) under the SDI policy. However, only 150 (20.2%) of the SDI cohort-initiated ART immediately after HIV diagnosis. Living in a two-adult home (adjusted HR (aHR) 1.2 vs living alone, 95% CI 1.0 to 1.5) increased the likelihood of 30-day ART. Missing baseline cluster of differentiation four (CD4) data decreased the likelihood of 30 days ART by 40% (aHR 0.6 vs CD4 <350 cells/µL, 95% CI 0.5 to 0.7). More women took up immediate ART (adjusted relative risk (aRR) 1.3, 95% CI 1.0 to 1.9). Participants ≥40 years (aRR 0.6 vs 18-24 years, 95% CI 0.4 to 0.9) were less likely to start ART immediately after HIV diagnosis. However, immediate ART rates increased with longer policy implementation time (aRR 0.2 for <3 months vs >10 months, 95% CI 0.1 to 0.4).

CONCLUSIONS

The study results highlight a positive move towards earlier ART initiation during the UTT and SDI periods and emphasise a need to increase same-day ART implementation further.

Cervical cancer risk in women living with HIV across four continents: A multicohort study

We compared invasive cervical cancer (ICC) incidence rates in Europe, South Africa, Latin and North America among women living with HIV who initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) between 1996 and 2014. We analyzed cohort data from the International Epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) and the Collaboration of Observational HIV Epidemiological Research in Europe (COHERE) in EuroCoord. We used flexible parametric survival models to determine regional ICC rates and risk factors for incident ICC. We included 64,231 women from 45 countries. During 320,141 person-years (pys), 356 incident ICC cases were diagnosed (Europe 164, South Africa 156, North America 19 and Latin America 17). Raw ICC incidence rates per 100,000 pys were 447 in South Africa (95% confidence interval [CI]: 382-523), 136 in Latin America (95% CI: 85-219), 76 in North America (95% CI: 48-119) and 66 in Europe (95% CI: 57-77). Compared to European women ICC rates at 5 years after ART initiation were more than double in Latin America (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 2.43, 95% CI: 1.27-4.68) and 11 times higher in South Africa (aHR: 10.66, 95% CI: 6.73-16.88), but similar in North America (aHR: 0.79, 95% CI: 0.37-1.71). Overall, ICC rates increased with age (>50 years vs. 16-30 years, aHR: 1.57, 95% CI: 1.03-2.40) and lower CD4 cell counts at ART initiation (per 100 cell/μl decrease, aHR: 1.25, 95% CI: 1.15-1.36). Improving access to early ART initiation and effective cervical cancer screening in women living with HIV should be key parts of global efforts to reduce cancer-related health inequities.

Adolescent HIV treatment in South Africa's national HIV programme: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The number of South African adolescents receiving HIV care and treatment in South Africa is growing. By use of routinely collected laboratory data from South Africa's National HIV Programme, we aimed to quantify the numbers of adolescents accessing HIV care and treatment over time, characterise the role of perinatal infection in these trends, and estimate proportions of adolescents seeking HIV care and antiretroviral therapy (ART) in South Africa's public sector.

METHODS

We did a retrospective, descriptive cohort study of children and adolescents aged 1-19 years accessing care in South Africa's public sector HIV treatment programme from 2005 to 2016 with a CD4 cell count or viral load recorded in South Africa's National Health Laboratory Service database. We estimated the total number of children and adolescents entering HIV care with a CD4 cell count or viral load test result by calendar period, as well as the proportion in care and receiving ART with at least one viral load test result. We stratified analyses by gender and by whether the patient entered care at younger than 15 years (probably perinatally infected) or at 15-19 years (probably infected in adolescence).

FINDINGS

We identified 730 882 patients aged 1-19 years at entry to care between Jan 1, 2005, and Dec 31, 2016. 209 205 (54%) of 388 439 patients entering care younger than 15 years and 301 242 (88%) of 342 443 patients entering care aged 15-19 were female. During the study period, the number of virologically monitored patients aged 15-19 years receiving ART increased from 7949 in 2005-08 to 80 918 in 2013-16. 92 783 (66%) of 140 028 patients aged 15-19 years seeking care started ART by 2016, well below UNAID's target of ART for 90% of those diagnosed. We project that the number of adolescents on ART will continue to rise.

INTERPRETATION

The many adolescents aged 15-19 years receiving ART reflect the ageing of children entering care at ages 1-14 years, and increases in care-seeking among horizontally infected adolescents aged 15-19 years. However, many adolescents seeking care do not start ART, suggesting an urgent need for interventions to increase uptake of ART and improve services for this population.

FUNDING

US National Institutes of Health, and the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief through the US Agency for International Development.

Who is seeking antiretroviral treatment for HIV now? Characteristics of patients presenting in Kenya and South Africa in 2017-2018

INTRODUCTION

Many African countries have had at least two years' experience with universal treatment eligibility for HIV. The literature contains few descriptions, though, of populations starting treatment since adoption of universal eligibility. Using baseline data from a clinical trial of same-day ART initiation, we describe the populations presenting for HIV testing or care at study clinics in Kenya and South Africa in 2017-18, during the era of same-day initiation.

METHODS

The Simplified Algorithm for Treatment Eligibility (SLATE) trials in Kenya (SLATE I) and South Africa (SLATE II) were multicenter, non-blinded, individually randomized, pragmatic trials evaluating simple, standardized algorithms to determine eligibility for same-day initiation of ART without relying on laboratory results, point of care tests or multiple clinic visits. In Kenya, enrolment occurred during July 2017 to April 2018. In South Africa, enrolment occurred during March to September 2018. We describe demographic, socioeconomic and clinical characteristics of patients randomized to the same-day initiation arm for both studies.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

A total of 240 and 296 participants were enrolled in Kenya and South Africa. The majority were female (59% and 64% respectively), with a median age of 35 years. In both countries, most subjects were newly diagnosed with HIV on the day of enrolment (62%, 55%), believed they already had adequate knowledge to begin ART (78%, 68%), and preferred to start ART immediately (same-day) (98% in both countries). About 40% of all patients had at least one symptom related to tuberculosis (cough, fever, night sweats, weight loss) and/or cryptococcal meningitis (continuous headache). More than a third of patients (37%, 36%) presented with advanced disease (CD4 <200 cells/mm3 ), a fifth presented with very advanced disease (CD4 < 100), and approximately 1 in 20 presented with very advanced disease and were asymptomatic.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite >2 years of universal eligibility for ART in Kenya and South Africa, in 2017-2018 more than half of HIV-positive patients presenting at public sector clinics were not yet aware of their status, and more than a third presented for care with advanced HIV disease. These proportions remain similar to those observed before the introduction of universal eligibility.

Simplified clinical algorithm for identifying patients eligible for same-day HIV treatment initiation (SLATE): Results from an individually randomized trial in South Africa and Kenya

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization recommends "same-day" initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV patients who are eligible and ready. Identifying efficient, safe, and feasible procedures for determining same-day eligibility and readiness is now a priority. The Simplified Algorithm for Treatment Eligibility (SLATE) study evaluated a clinical algorithm that allows healthcare workers to determine eligibility for same-day treatment and to initiate ART at the patient's first clinic visit.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

SLATE was an individually randomized trial at three outpatient clinics in urban settlements in Johannesburg, South Africa and three hospital clinics in western Kenya. Adult, nonpregnant, HIV-positive, ambulatory patients presenting for any HIV care, including HIV testing, but not yet on ART were enrolled and randomized to the SLATE algorithm arm or standard care. The SLATE algorithm used four screening tools-a symptom self-report, medical history questionnaire, physical examination, and readiness assessment-to ascertain eligibility for same-day initiation or refer for further care. Follow-up was by record review, and analysis was conducted by country. We report primary outcomes of 1) ART initiation ≤28 days and 2) initiation ≤28 days and retention in care ≤8 months of enrollment. From March 7, 2017 to April 17, 2018, we enrolled 600 patients (median [IQR] age 34 [29-40] and CD4 count 286 [128-490]; 63% female) in South Africa and 477 patients in Kenya (median [IQR] age 35 [29-43] and CD4 count 283 [117-541]; 58% female). In the intervention arm, 78% of patients initiated ≤28 days in South Africa, compared to 68% in the standard arm (risk difference [RD] [95% confidence interval (CI)] 10% [3%-17%]); in Kenya, 94% of intervention-arm patients initiated ≤28 days compared to 89% in the standard arm (6% [0.5%-11%]). By 8 months in South Africa, 161/298 (54%) intervention-arm patients had initiated and were retained, compared to 146/302 (48%) in the standard arm (6% [(2% to 14%]). By 8 months in Kenya, the corresponding retention outcomes were identical in both arms (137/240 [57%] of intervention-arm patients and 136/237 [57%] of standard-arm patients). Limitations of the trial included limited geographic representativeness, exclusion of patients too ill to participate, missing viral load data, greater study fidelity to the algorithm than might be achieved in standard care, and secular changes in standard care over the course of the study.

CONCLUSIONS

In South Africa, the SLATE algorithm increased uptake of ART within 28 days by 10% and showed a numerical increase (6%) in retention at 8 months. In Kenya, the algorithm increased uptake of ART within 28 days by 6% but found no difference in retention at 8 months. Eight-month retention was poor in both arms and both countries. These results suggest that a simple structured algorithm for same-day treatment initiation procedures is feasible and can increase and accelerate ART uptake but that early retention on treatment remains problematic.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Clinicaltrials.gov NCT02891135, registered September 1, 2016. First participant enrolled March 6, 2017 in South Africa and July 13, 2017 in Kenya.

"Even if you're HIV-positive there's life after if you take your medication": experiences of people on long-term ART in South Africa: a short report

South Africa's national antiretroviral treatment (ART) programme, initiated in 2004, is the largest HIV treatment programme in the world with an estimated 4.2 million people on ART. Today, an HIV diagnosis is no longer associated with certain death, but is rather a manageable chronic disease, with all HIV-positive patients now eligible to receive treatment. In this study, we explore patient experiences at the onset of the ART programme, including facilitators and barriers around decision-making along the HIV care cascade (HIV testing, ART initiation, retention, and adherence). We conducted twenty-four in-depth interviews among adults (≥18 years old) who initiated ART between April 2004 and March 2005 and were alive, on treatment at enrolment (October 2015-March 2016) at a large public-sector clinic in Johannesburg, South Africa. Data were analysed using a thematic analysis approach. Patients cited physical wellbeing, responsibility for raising children, supportive clinic staff and noticeable improvements in health on ART as key facilitators to continued care. In contrast, changing clinic conditions, fear of side-effects and stigma were mentioned as barriers. This study provides a unique lens through which to evaluate factors associated with long-term retention and adherence to ART at a crucial time in ART programming when more people will be initiating life-long treatment. We must continue to focus on supportive and empathetic clinic environments, more convenient ways to access medication for patients, and developing tools or interventions that continue to address the issues of stigma and discrimination and build the support networks for all those on treatment.

Improved simplified clinical algorithm for identifying patients eligible for immediate initiation of antiretroviral therapy for HIV (SLATE II): protocol for a randomized evaluation

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization recommends rapid (≤ 7 days) or same-day initiation of antiretroviral treatment (ART) for HIV-positive patients. South Africa adopted this recommendation in 2017, but multiple clinic visits, long waiting times, and delays for laboratory tests remain common. Streamlined approaches to same-day initiation that allow the majority of patients to start ART immediately, while ensuring that patients who do require additional services receive them, are needed to achieve national and international treatment program goals.

METHODS/DESIGN

The SLATE II (Simplified Algorithm for Treatment Eligibility) study is an individually randomized evaluation of a clinical algorithm to reliably determine a patient's eligibility for immediate ART initiation without waiting for laboratory results or additional clinic visits. It differs from the earlier SLATE I study in management of patients with symptoms of tuberculosis (under SLATE II these patients may be started on ART immediately) and other criteria for immediate initiation. SLATE II will randomize (1:1) 600 adult, HIV-positive patients who present for HIV testing or care and are not yet on ART in South Africa. Patients randomized to the standard arm will receive standard-of-care ART initiation from clinic staff. Patients randomized to the intervention arm will be administered a symptom report, medical history, brief physical exam, and readiness assessment. Symptomatic patients will also have a tuberculosis (TB) module with lipoarabinomannan antigen of mycobacteria test. Patients who have satisfactory results for all four components will be dispensed antiretrovirals (ARVs) immediately, at the same clinic visit. Patients who have any negative results will be referred for further investigation, care, counseling, tests, or other services prior to being dispensed ARVs. Follow-up will be by passive medical record review. The primary outcomes will be ART initiation in  ≤ 7 days and retention in care 8 months after study enrollment.

DISCUSSION

SLATE II improves upon the SLATE I study by reducing the number of reasons for delaying ART initiation and allowing more patients with TB symptoms to start ART on the day of diagnosis. If successful, SLATE II will provide a simple and streamlined approach that can readily be adopted in other settings without investment in additional technology.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03315013 . Registered on 19 October 2017.

Prevalence, incidence, predictors, treatment, and control of hypertension among HIV-positive adults on antiretroviral treatment in public sector treatment programs in South Africa

BACKGROUND

One of the key risk factors for cardiovascular disease is hypertension. Hypertension, which leads to heart attacks and strokes, already affects one billion people worldwide, making it a global public health issue. Incidence and prevalence of the condition is on the rise in low- and middle-income countries, with the biggest increase in sub-Saharan Africa and South Africa at the forefront. We examined the prevalence, incidence, predictors, treatment, and control of hypertension among HIV-positive patients on ART in a large South African observational cohort.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective study of ART naïve adults initiating ART at a public sector HIV clinic in South Africa between April 2004-2017. Patients with diagnosed hypertension at ART initiation were excluded from the incidence analysis. Log-binomial regression was used to estimate predictors of hypertension at ART initiation, while competing risks regression was used to evaluate the relationship between predictors of incident hypertension, accounting for death as a competing risk.

RESULTS

Among 77,696 eligible patients, 22.0% had prevalent hypertension at ART initiation. Of the remaining patients with no hypertension at ART initiation, 8,125 incident hypertension cases were diagnosed over the period of follow-up, corresponding to an incident rate of 5.4 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval (CI): 5.3-5.6). We found patients ≥40 years of age and patients with a body mass index (BMI) ≥25kg/m2 were at increased risk of both prevalent and incident hypertension. Male patients and those with pre-hypertension at ART initiation had increased hazards of hypertension over the period of follow-up. When assessing the choice of antiretroviral drug in first-line ART, patients initiated on nevirapine were at 27% increased risk of developing hypertension compared to those initiated on efavirenz, while patients who initiated on either zidovudine or stavudine had a 40% increased risk of developing hypertension compared to patients initiated on tenofovir. Patientswith poorer health status at ART initiation (i.e. WHO III/IV stage, low CD4 count, low hemoglobin levels and low BMI) had a decrease risk of prevalent hypertension. We found an inverse relationship in patients with a CD4 count <50 cells/mm3 at ART initiation who had a 25% increased risk of incident hypertension compared to those with a CD4 count ≥350 cells/mm3.

CONCLUSION

Over 20% of patients in our cohort had hypertension at ART initiation, and 13% of those with normal blood pressure at ART initiation developed hypertension while on ART. Older patients, males, those on nevirapine, zidovudine or stavudine, and those who are overweight/obese should be targeted for frequent blood pressure monitoring and the identification of other cardiovascular risk factors to encourage lifestyle modifications. Additionally, these groups should be offered pharmaceutical therapy to help prevent myocardial infarction, heart failure, stroke, and kidney disease. Further research is needed to determine the level of access and adherence to pharmaceutical treatment for hypertension in this population. Additionally, an HIV-negative comparison population is needed to assess the association of the HIV virus itself with hypertension.

"My future is bright…I won't die with the cause of AIDS": ten-year patient ART outcomes and experiences in South Africa

INTRODUCTION

South Africa is moving into a new era of HIV treatment with "treat all" policies where people may be on treatment for most of their lives. We need to understand treatment outcomes and facilitators of long-term antiretroviral treatment (ART) adherence and retention-in-care in the South African context. In one of the first studies to investigate long-term treatment outcomes in South Africa, we aimed to describe ten-year patient outcomes at a large public-sector HIV clinic in Johannesburg and explore patient experiences of the treatment programme over this time in order to ascertain factors that may aid or hinder long-term adherence and retention.

METHODS

We conducted a cohort analysis (n = 6644) and in-depth interviews (n = 24) among HIV-positive adults initiating first-line ART between April 2004 and March 2007. Using clinical records, we ascertained twelve-month and ten-year all-cause mortality and loss to follow-up (LTF). Cox proportional hazards regression was used to identify baseline predictors of attrition (mortality and LTF (>3 months late for the last scheduled visit)) at twelve months and ten years. Twenty-four patients were purposively selected and interviewed to explore treatment programme experiences over ten years on ART.

RESULTS

Excluding transfers, 79.5% (95% confidence intervals (CI): 78.5 to 80.5) of the cohort were alive, in care at twelve months dropping to 35.1% (95% CI: 33.7 to 36.4) at ten years. Over 44% of deaths occurred within 12 months. Ten-year all-cause mortality increased, while LTF decreased slightly, with age. Year and age at ART initiation, sex, nationality, baseline CD4 count, anaemia, body mass index and initiating regimen were predictors of ten-year attrition. Among patients interviewed, the pretreatment clinic environment, feelings of gratitude and good fortune, support networks, and self-efficacy were facilitators of care; side effects, travel and worsening clinical conditions were barriers. Participants were generally optimistic about their futures and were committed to continued care.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates the complexities of long-term chronic HIV treatment with declining all-cause mortality and increasing LTF over ten years. Barriers to long-term retention still present a significant challenge. As more people become eligible for ART in South Africa under "treatment for all," new healthcare delivery challenges will arise; interventions are needed to ensure long-term programme successes continue.

Implementation of Option B and a fixed-dose combination antiretroviral regimen for prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV in South Africa: A model of uptake and adherence to care

INTRODUCTION

Initiating and retaining pregnant women on antiretroviral therapy (ART) to prevent mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT) remains a major challenge facing African HIV programs, particularly during the critical final months prior to delivery. In 2013, South Africa implemented its "Option B" PMTCT regimen (three-drug ART throughout pregnancy and breastfeeding, regardless of maternal CD4 count) and introduced once-daily fixed-dose combinations and lifelong ART. Currently, the uptake of Option B and its possible impact on adherence to PMTCT during the critical final months of pregnancy is unclear.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We prospectively collected visit data from a cohort of adult, HIV-infected, pregnant women between July 2013-August 2014 to estimate three models of adherence to PMTCT during the final 16 weeks immediately preceding delivery. Adherence was defined according to possession of antiretroviral drugs, which was inferred from clinic visit records under varying assumptions in each model. We describe uptake of the PMTCT regimen, gestational age at initiation, and model possible scenarios of adherence through delivery after the implementation of Option B.

RESULTS

Among 138 women enrolled (median (IQR) age 28 years (24-32), median CD4 count 378 cells/mm3), median (IQR) gestational age at initiation was 22 weeks (16-26). Estimates of adherence during the final 16 weeks of pregnancy prior to delivery ranged from 75% (52-89%) under the best case scenario assumptions to 52% (30-75%) under the worst case scenario assumptions. Estimates of the proportion of women who would achieve 80% adherence to PMTCT were <50% across all models.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the switch to Option B and once-daily dosing, South African women continue to initiate PMTCT late in pregnancy, and estimations of regimen adherence, as modelled using PMTCT visit attendance data, is poor, with <50% of women reaching 80% adherence during final months of pregnancy across all models. Further guideline changes and interventions are needed to achieve vertical transmission goals.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01710397 South African National Clinical Trials Register DOH-27-0213-4177.

Correction: Estimating retention in HIV care accounting for patient transfers: A national laboratory cohort study in South Africa

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002589.].

Estimating retention in HIV care accounting for patient transfers: A national laboratory cohort study in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Systematic reviews have described high rates of attrition in patients with HIV receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). However, migration and clinical transfer may lead to an overestimation of attrition (death and loss to follow-up). Using a newly linked national laboratory database in South Africa, we assessed national retention in South Africa's national HIV program.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Patients receiving care in South Africa's national HIV program are monitored through regular CD4 count and viral load testing. South Africa's National Health Laboratory Service has maintained a database of all public-sector CD4 count and viral load results since 2004. We linked individual laboratory results to patients using probabilistic matching techniques, creating a national HIV cohort. Validation of our approach in comparison to a manually matched dataset showed 9.0% undermatching and 9.5% overmatching. We analyzed data on patients initiating ART in the public sector from April 1, 2004, to December 31, 2006, when ART initiation could be determined based on first viral load among those whose treatment followed guidelines. Attrition occurred on the date of a patient's last observed laboratory measure, allowing patients to exit and reenter care prior to that date. All patients had 6 potential years of follow-up, with an additional 2 years to have a final laboratory measurement to be retained at 6 years. Data were censored at December 31, 2012. We assessed (a) national retention including all laboratory tests regardless of testing facility and (b) initiating facility retention, where laboratory tests at other facilities were ignored. We followed 55,836 patients initiating ART between 2004 and 2006. At ART initiation, median age was 36 years (IQR: 30-43), median CD4 count was 150 cells/mm3 (IQR: 81-230), and 66.7% were female. Six-year initiating clinic retention was 29.1% (95% CI: 28.7%-29.5%). After allowing for transfers, national 6-year retention was 63.3% (95% CI: 62.9%-63.7%). Results differed little when tightening or relaxing matching procedures. We found strong differences in retention by province, ranging from 74.2% (95% CI: 73.2%-75.2%) in Western Cape to 52.2% (95% CI: 50.6%-53.7%) in Mpumalanga at 6 years. National attrition was higher among patients initiating at lower CD4 counts and higher viral loads, and among patients initiating ART at larger facilities. The study's main limitation is lack of perfect cohort matching, which may lead to over- or underestimation of retention. We also did not have data from KwaZulu-Natal province prior to 2010.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, HIV care retention was substantially higher when viewed from a national perspective than from a facility perspective. Our results suggest that traditional clinical cohorts underestimate retention.

Regimen durability in HIV-infected children and adolescents initiating first-line antiretroviral therapy in a large public sector HIV cohort in South Africa

INTRODUCTION

In April 2010, tenofovir and abacavir replaced stavudine in public sector first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) for children under 20 years old in South Africa. The association of both abacavir and tenofovir with fewer side effects and toxicities compared to stavudine could translate to increased durability of tenofovir or abacavir-based regimens. We evaluated changes over time in regimen durability for paediatric patients 3-19 years of age at eight public sector clinics in Johannesburg, South Africa.

METHODS

Cohort analysis of treatment-naïve, non-pregnant paediatric patients from 3 to 19 years old initiated on ART between April 2004 and December 2013. First-line ART regimens before April 2010 consisted of stavudine or zidovudine with lamivudine and either efavirenz or nevirapine. Tenofovir and/or abacavir was substituted for stavudine after April 2010 in first-line ART. We evaluated the frequency and type of single-drug substitutions, treatment interruptions and switches to second-line therapy. Fine and Gray competing risk regression models were used to evaluate the association of antiretroviral drug type with single-drug substitutions, treatment interruptions and second-line switches in the first 24 months on treatment.

RESULTS

Three hundred and ninety-eight (15.3%) single-drug substitutions, 187 (7.2%) treatment interruptions and 86 (3.3%) switches to second-line therapy occurred among 2602 paediatric patients over 24-months on ART. Overall, the rate of single-drug substitutions started to increase in 2009, peaked in 2011 at 25% and then declined to 10% in 2013, well after the integration of tenofovir into paediatric regimens; no patients over the age of 3 were initiated on abacavir for first-line therapy. Competing risk regression models showed patients on zidovudine or stavudine had upwards of a fivefold increase in single-drug substitution vs. patients initiated on tenofovir in the first 24 months on ART. Older adolescents also had a two- to threefold increase in treatment interruptions and switches to second-line therapy compared to younger patients in the first 24 months on ART.

CONCLUSIONS

The decline in single-drug substitutions is associated with the introduction of tenofovir. Tenofovir use could improve regimen durability and treatment outcomes in resource-limited settings.

Persistent High Burden of Advanced HIV Disease Among Patients Seeking Care in South Africa's National HIV Program: Data From a Nationwide Laboratory Cohort

Background

The South African national HIV program has increased antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage over the last decade, supported by policy changes allowing for earlier ART initiation. However, many patients still enter care with advanced (<200 cells/μL) and very advanced (<100 cells/μL) HIV disease. We assessed disease progression at entry to care using nationwide laboratory data.

Methods

We constructed a national HIV cohort using laboratory records containing HIV RNA loads and CD4 counts from 2004 to 2016 to determine entry into care. We estimated numbers and proportions of adults with the first CD4 count <100 cells/ μL or 100-199 cells/μL. We calculated relative risks of presenting with advanced disease associated with male sex.

Results

8.04 million first CD4 results were identified. From 2005 to 2011, the proportion of patients entering into care with CD4 count <200 cells/μL declined from 46.8% to 35.6%. From 2011 onward, the proportion of patients entering ART with advanced HIV disease has remained relatively unchanged. In 2016, we estimated that of 654 868 patients entering care, 32.9% had advanced HIV disease, and 16.8% had very advanced HIV disease. Men were almost twice as likely as women (23.1% vs 12.6% ) to enter care with very advanced HIV disease.

Conclusions

The proportion of patients presenting with advanced HIV disease in South Africa remains consistently high despite ART scale-up, representing a large and avoidable burden of morbidity. Early HIV diagnosis, rapid linkage to ART and approaches to attract men into early ART initiation should be prioritized.

Markers of poor adherence among adults with HIV attending Themba Lethu HIV Clinic, Helen Joseph Hospital, Johannesburg, South Africa

Background

To date, there is no consensus on ideal ways to measure antiretroviral treatment (ART) adherence in resource limited settings. This study aimed to identify markers of poor adherence to ART.

Methods

Retrospective data of HIV-positive ART-naïve adults initiating standard first-line ART at Themba Lethu Clinic, Helen Joseph Hospital, Johannesburg, South Africa from April 2004 to December 2011 were analysed. Poisson regression models with robust error variance were used to assessed the following potential markers of poor adherence ‘last self-reported adherence, missed clinic visits, mean corpuscular volume (MCV), CD4 count against definition of adherence, suppressed HIV viral load using traditional test metrics’.

Results

A total of 11 724 patients were eligible; 1712 (14.6%) had unsuppressed viral load within 6 months after initiating ART. The main marker of poor adherence was a combination of change in CD4 count and MCV; change in CD4 ≥expected and change in MCV <14.5 fL (RR 2.82, 95% CI 2.16–3.67), change in CD4 <expected and change in MCV <14.5 fL (RR 5.49, 95% CI 4.13–7.30) compared to change in CD4 ≥expected and change in MCV ≥14.5 fL.

Conclusions

A combination of less than expected increase in CD4 and MCV at 6 months after treatment initation was found to be a marker of poor adherence. This could help identify and monitor poor treatment adherence in the absence of viral load testing.

Incident tuberculosis in HIV-positive children, adolescents and adults on antiretroviral therapy in South Africa

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the association between age and incident tuberculosis (TB) among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infected patients receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART) in South Africa.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort analysis among HIV-infected patients initiating ART between April 2004 and April 2012. Generalized estimating equations (GEE) were used with modified Poisson regression clustered by treatment site as a function of sex, age, nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor, CD4 count, hemoglobin levels and year of ART initiation. Cumulative incidence functions stratified by age and controlling for death as a competing risk were used to graphically display incident TB.

RESULTS

Although non-significant, GEE models showed that patients aged <1 year had a 40% increase in risk of TB compared to those aged 30-39.9 years. Results also showed that male patients, those with low CD4, those with low hemoglobin and those who initiated ART before 2010 were at increased risk of TB.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results show that patients aged <1 year, males, patients with low CD4 and those with low hemoglobin at ART initiation are at increased risk of incident TB in the first 24 months of ART. Given the known transmission risk factors for children living in households with a TB contact, reducing TB incidence in HIV-positive adults could substantially impact the risk of TB in young children.

The right combination - treatment outcomes among HIV-positive patients initiating first-line fixed-dose antiretroviral therapy in a public sector HIV clinic in Johannesburg, South Africa

Background

Long-term antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence is critical for achieving optimal HIV treatment outcomes. Fixed-dose combination (FDC) single-pill regimens, introduced in South Africa in April 2013, has simplified pill taking. We evaluated treatment outcomes among patients initiated on a FDC compared to a similar multi-pill ART regimen in Johannesburg, South Africa.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of ART-naïve HIV-positive non-pregnant adult (≥18 years) patients without tuberculosis who initiated first-line ART on tenofovir and emtricitabine or lamivudine with efavirenz at Themba Lethu Clinic in Johannesburg, South Africa. We compared those initiated on a multi-pill ART regimen (3–5 pills/day; September 1, 2011–August 31, 2012) to those initiated on a FDC ART regimen (one pill/day; September 1, 2013–August 31, 2014). Treatment outcomes included attrition (combination of lost to follow-up and mortality), missed medical visits, and virologic suppression (viral load <400 copies/mL) by 12 months post-ART initiation. Cox proportional hazards models and Poisson regression were used to estimate the association between FDCs vs multiple pills and treatment outcomes.

Results

We included 3151 patients in our analysis; 2230 (70.8%) patients initiated multi-pill ART and 921 (29.2%) patients initiated on a FDC. By 12 months post-initiation, attrition (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.98; 95% CI: 0.77–1.24) was similar across regimen types (FDC vs multi-pill). Although not significant, patients on a FDC were marginally more likely to achieve viral suppression by 6 (adjusted relative rate [aRR]: 1.10; 95% CI: 0.99–1.23) and 12 months (aRR: 1.12; 95% CI: 0.92–1.36) on ART. Patients initiated on a FDC were significantly less likely to miss medical visits during the first 12 months of treatment (aRR: 0.66; 95% CI: 0.52–0.83).

Conclusion

Our results suggest FDCs may have a role to play in supporting patient adherence and medical monitoring through improved medical visit attendance. This may potentially improve treatment outcomes later on in treatment.

Acceptability and feasibility of a financial incentive intervention to improve retention in HIV care among pregnant women in Johannesburg, South Africa

Women initiating antiretroviral therapy during pregnancy are at high risk of dropping out of HIV care after delivery. We assessed the acceptability and feasibility of a financial incentive - a one-time R50 (∼USD4) supermarket voucher for completing one postpartum visit ≤10 weeks of delivery - to improve postpartum retention. We enrolled 100 pregnant, HIV-positive women at a primary health clinic in Johannesburg, South Africa. Participants were interviewed at enrollment and we reviewed files to assess retention ≥14 weeks postpartum. Median (IQR) respondent age was 28 years (24-31) and 31% were employed. Most (86%) said the incentive would motivate them to return and 76% supported clinics offering incentives. Among the 23% who found the intervention unacceptable, the most frequent reason was perceived personal responsibility for health. Feasibility was demonstrated, as 79.7% (51/64) of eligible participants received a voucher. When asked to rank preferred hypothetical incentive interventions, assistance with social services ranked first (29%), followed by infant formula (22%) and cash (21%); assistance with social services was the top-ranked choice by both those who found the voucher incentive intervention acceptable and unacceptable. To encourage HIV-positive women to remain in care, respondents most frequently suggested health education (34%), counseling (29%), financial incentives (25%), home visits (13%), and better service (6%). Our results suggest financial incentives are acceptable, but women frequently expressed preference for integrated services and improved education and counseling to improve retention. Interventions exploring the feasibility and efficacy of education and counseling interventions to improve postpartum HIV care are warranted.

Cervical cancer risk and impact of Pap-based screening in HIV-positive women on antiretroviral therapy in Johannesburg, South Africa

Data on invasive cervical cancer (ICC) incidence in HIV-positive women and the effect of cervical cancer screening in sub-Saharan Africa are scarce. We estimated i) ICC incidence rates in women (≥18 years) who initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) at the Themba Lethu Clinic (TLC) in Johannesburg, South Africa, between 2004 and 2011 and ii) the effect of a Pap-based screening program. We included 10,640 women; median age at ART initiation: 35 years [interquartile range (IQR) 30-42], median CD4 count at ART initiation: 113 cells/µL (IQR 46-184). During 27,257 person-years (pys), 138 women were diagnosed with ICC; overall incidence rate: 506/100,000 pys [95% confidence interval (CI) 428-598]. The ICC incidence rate was highest (615/100,000 pys) in women who initiated ART before cervical cancer screening became available in 04/2005 and was lowest (260/100,000 pys) in women who initiated ART from 01/2009 onward when the cervical cancer screening program and access to treatment of cervical lesions was expanded [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 0.42, 95% CI 0.20-0.87]. Advanced HIV/AIDS stage (4 versus 1, aHR 1.95, 95% CI 1.17-3.24) and middle age at ART initiation (36-45 versus 18-25 years, aHR 2.51, 95% CI 1.07-5.88) were risk factors for ICC. The ICC incidence rate substantially decreased with the implementation of a Pap-based screening program and improved access to treatment of cervical lesions. However, the risk of developing ICC after ART initiation remained high. To inform and improve ICC prevention and care for HIV-positive women in sub-Saharan Africa, implementation and monitoring of cervical cancer screening programs are essential.

Cohort profile: the Right to Care Clinical HIV Cohort, South Africa

PURPOSE

The research objectives of the Right to Care Clinical HIV Cohort analyses are to: (1) monitor treatment outcomes (including death, loss to follow-up, viral suppression and CD4 count gain among others) for patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART); (2) evaluate the impact of changes in the national treatment guidelines around when to initiate ART on HIV treatment outcomes; (3) evaluate the impact of changes in the national treatment guidelines around what ART regimens to initiate on drug switches; (4) evaluate the cost and cost-effectiveness of HIV treatment delivery models; (5) evaluate the need for and outcomes on second-line and third-line ART; (6) evaluate the impact of comorbidity with non-communicable diseases on HIV treatment outcomes and (7) evaluate the impact of the switch to initiating all patients onto ART regardless of CD4 count.

PARTICIPANTS

The Right to Care Clinical HIV Cohort is an open cohort of data from 10 clinics in two provinces within South Africa. All clinics include data from 2004 onwards. The cohort currently has data on over 115 000 patients initiated on HIV treatment and patients are followed up every 3-6 months for clinical and laboratory monitoring.

FINDINGS TO DATE

Cohort data includes information on demographics, clinical visit, laboratory data, medication history and clinical diagnoses. The data have been used to identify rates and predictors of first-line failure, to identify predictors of mortality for patients on second-line (eg, low CD4 counts) and to show that adolescents and young adults are at increased risk of unsuppressed viral loads compared with adults.

FUTURE PLANS

Future analyses will inform national models of HIV care and treatment to improve HIV care policy in South Africa.

Simplified clinical algorithm for identifying patients eligible for immediate initiation of antiretroviral therapy for HIV (SLATE): protocol for a randomised evaluation

INTRODUCTION

African countries are rapidly adopting guidelines to offer antiretroviral therapy (ART) to all HIV-infected individuals, regardless of CD4 count. For this policy of 'treat all' to succeed, millions of new patients must be initiated on ART as efficiently as possible. Studies have documented high losses of treatment-eligible patients from care before they receive their first dose of antiretrovirals (ARVs), due in part to a cumbersome, resource-intensive process for treatment initiation, requiring multiple clinic visits over a several-week period.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The Simplified Algorithm for Treatment Eligibility (SLATE) study is an individually randomised evaluation of a simplified clinical algorithm for clinicians to reliably determine a patient's eligibility for immediate ART initiation without waiting for laboratory results or additional clinic visits. SLATE will enrol and randomise (1:1) 960 adult, HIV-positive patients who present for HIV testing or care and are not yet on ART in South Africa and Kenya. Patients randomised to the standard arm will receive routine, standard of care ART initiation from clinic staff. Patients randomised to the intervention arm will be administered a symptom report, medical history, brief physical exam and readiness assessment. Patients who have positive (satisfactory) results for all four components of SLATE will be dispensed ARVs immediately, at the same clinic visit. Patients who have any negative results will be referred for further clinical investigation, counselling, tests or other services prior to being dispensed ARVs. After the initial visit, follow-up will be by passive medical record review. The primary outcomes will be ART initiation ≤28 days and retention in care 8 months after study enrolment.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethics approval has been provided by the Boston University Institutional Review Board, the University of the Witwatersrand Human Research Ethics Committee (Medical) and the KEMRI Scientific and Ethics Review Unit. Results will be published in peer-reviewed journals and made widely available through presentations and briefing documents.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT02891135.

Predicting the Need for Third-Line Antiretroviral Therapy by Identifying Patients at High Risk for Failing Second-Line Antiretroviral Therapy in South Africa

Although third-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) is available in South Africa's public sector, its cost is substantially higher than first and second line. Identifying risk factors for failure on second-line treatment remains crucial to reduce the need for third-line drugs. We conducted a case-control study including 194 adult patients (≥18 years; 70 cases and 124 controls) who initiated second-line ART in Johannesburg, South Africa. Unconditional logistic regression was used to assess predictors of virologic failure (defined as 2 consecutive viral load measures ≥1000 copies/mL, ≥3 months after switching to second line). Variables included a social instability index, ART adherence, self-reported as well as diagnosed adverse drug reactions (ADRs), HIV disclosure, depression, and factors affecting access to HIV clinics. Overall 60.0% of cases and 54.0% of controls were female. Mean ages of cases and controls were 41.8 ± 9.6 and 43.3 ± 8.0, respectively. Virologic failure was predicted by ART adherence <90% [odds ratio (OR) 4.7; 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 2.1-10.5], younger age (<40 years of age; OR 0.6; 95% CI: 0.3-1.1), high social instability (OR 3.8; 95% CI: 1.30-11.5), self-reported ADR (OR 1.9; 95% CI: 1.0-3.5), disclosure to friends/colleagues rather than partner/relatives (OR 3.4; 95% CI: 1.3-9.1), and medium/high depression compared to low/no depression (OR 4.4; 95% CI: 1.5-13.4). Our results suggest complex socioeconomic factors contributing to risk of virologic failure, possibly by impacting ART adherence, among patients on second-line therapy in South Africa. Identifying patients with possible indicators of nonadherence could facilitate targeted interventions to reduce the risk of second-line treatment failure and mitigate the demand for third-line regimens.

Changes in elevated cholesterol in the era of tenofovir in South Africa: risk factors, clinical management and outcomes

OBJECTIVES

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been associated with unfavourable lipid profile changes and increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). With a growing population on ART in South Africa, there has been concern about the increase in noncommunicable diseases such as CVD. We determined risk factors associated with increased total cholesterol (TC) in a large cohort on ART and describe the clinical management thereof.

METHODS

We conducted an observational cohort study of ART-naïve adults initiating standard first-line ART in a large urban clinic in Johannesburg, South Africa. TC was measured annually for most patients. A proportional hazards regression model was used to determine risk factors associated with incident high TC (≥ 6 mmol/L).

RESULTS

Significant risk factors included initial regimen non-tenofovir vs. tenofovir [hazard ratio (HR) 1.54; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.14-2.08], age ≥40 vs. <30 years (HR 3.22; 95% CI 2.07-4.99), body mass index (BMI) ≥ 30 kg/m² (HR 1.65; 95% CI 1.18-2.31) and BMI 25-29.9 kg/m² (HR 1.70; 95% CI 1.30-2.23) vs. 18-24.9 kg/m² , and baseline CD4 count < 50 cells/μL (HR 1.55; 95% CI 1.10-2.20) and 50-99 cells/μL (HR 1.40; 95% CI 1.00-1.97) vs. > 200 cells/μL. Two-thirds of patients with high TC were given cholesterol-lowering drugs, after repeat TC measurements about 12 months apart, while 31.8% were likely to have received dietary counselling only.

CONCLUSIONS

Older age, higher BMI, lower CD4 count and a non-tenofovir regimen were risk factors for incident elevated TC. Current guidelines do not indicate regular cholesterol testing at ART clinic visits, which are the main exposure to regular clinical monitoring for most HIV-positive individuals. If regular cholesterol monitoring is conducted, improvements can be made to identify and treat patients sooner.

Citizenship status and engagement in HIV care: an observational cohort study to assess the association between reporting a national ID number and retention in public-sector HIV care in Johannesburg, South Africa

OBJECTIVE

In many resource-limited settings, people from rural areas migrate to urban hubs in search of work. Thus, urban public-sector HIV clinics in South Africa (SA) often cater to both local residents and patients from other provinces and/or countries. The objective of this analysis was to compare programmatic treatment outcomes by citizenship status in an urban clinic in SA.

SETTING

An urban public-sector HIV treatment facility in Johannesburg, SA.

PARTICIPANTS

We included all antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naïve, non-pregnant patients who initiated standard first-line treatment from January 2008 to December 2013. 12 219 patients were included and 59.5% were women.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE

Patients were followed from ART initiation until death, transfer, loss to follow-up (LTF), or data set closure. We describe attrition (mortality and LTF) stratified by SA citizenship status (confirmed SA citizens (with national ID number), unconfirmed SA citizens (no ID), and foreign nationals) and model the risk of attrition using Cox proportional hazards regression.

RESULTS

70% of included patients were confirmed SA citizens, 19% were unconfirmed SA citizens, and 11% were foreign nationals. Unconfirmed SA citizens were far more likely to die or become LTF than other patients. A similar proportion of foreign nationals (18.2%) and confirmed SA citizens (17.7%) had left care at 1 year compared with 47.0% of unconfirmed SA citizens (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) unconfirmed SA vs confirmed SA: 2.68; 95% CI 2.42 to 2.97). By the end of follow-up, 75.5% of unconfirmed SA citizens had left care, approximately twice that of any other group.

CONCLUSIONS

Unconfirmed SA citizens were more likely to drop out of care after ART initiation than other patients. Further research is needed to determine whether this observed attrition is representative of migration and/or self-transfer to another HIV clinic as such high rates of attrition pose challenges for the success of the national ART programme.

Imputing HIV treatment start dates from routine laboratory data in South Africa: a validation study

BACKGROUND

Poor clinical record keeping hinders health systems monitoring and patient care in many low resource settings. We develop and validate a novel method to impute dates of antiretroviral treatment (ART) initiation from routine laboratory data in South Africa's public sector HIV program. This method will enable monitoring of the national ART program using real-time laboratory data, avoiding the error potential of chart review.

METHODS

We developed an algorithm to impute ART start dates based on the date of a patient's "ART workup", i.e. the laboratory tests used to determine treatment readiness in national guidelines, and the time from ART workup to initiation based on clinical protocols (21 days). To validate the algorithm, we analyzed data from two large clinical HIV cohorts: Hlabisa HIV Treatment and Care Programme in rural KwaZulu-Natal; and Right to Care Cohort in urban Gauteng. Both cohorts contain known ART initiation dates and laboratory results imported directly from the National Health Laboratory Service. We assessed median time from ART workup to ART initiation and calculated sensitivity (SE), specificity (SP), positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of our imputed start date vs. the true start date within a 6 month window. Heterogeneity was assessed across individual clinics and over time.

RESULTS

We analyzed data from over 80,000 HIV-positive adults. Among patients who had a workup and initiated ART, median time to initiation was 16 days (IQR 7,31) in Hlabisa and 21 (IQR 8,43) in RTC cohort. Among patients with known ART start dates, SE of the imputed start date was 83% in Hlabisa and 88% in RTC, indicating this method accurately predicts ART start dates for about 85% of all ART initiators. In Hlabisa, PPV was 95%, indicating that for patients with a lab workup, true start dates were predicted with high accuracy. SP (100%) and NPV (92%) were also very high.

CONCLUSIONS

Routine laboratory data can be used to infer ART initiation dates in South Africa's public sector. Where care is provided based on protocols, laboratory data can be used to monitor health systems performance and improve accuracy and completeness of clinical records.

Tenofovir stock shortages have limited impact on clinic- and patient-level HIV treatment outcomes in public sector clinics in South Africa

OBJECTIVE

Using data from four public sector clinics in South Africa, we sought to investigate provider- and patient-level outcomes, to understand how the 2012 tenofovir stock shortage affected the HIV care and monitoring of ART patients.

METHODS

Prospective cohort analysis of ART-naïve, non-pregnant, HIV-infected patients >18 years initiating first-line ART between 1 July 2011-31 March 2013. Linear regression was used for all outcomes (number of ART initiates, days between pharmacy visits, transfers, single-drug substitutions, treatment interruptions, missed pharmacy visits, loss to follow-up and elevated viral load). We fit splines to smooth curves with knots at the beginning (1 February 2012) and end (31 August 2012) of the stock shortage and displayed results graphically by clinic. Difference-in-difference models were used to evaluate the effect of the stock shortage on outcomes.

RESULTS

Results suggest a potential shift in the management of patients during the shortage, mainly fewer average days between visits during the shortage vs. before or after at all four clinics, and a significant difference in the proportion of patients missing visits during vs. before (RD: 1.2%; 95% CI: 0.5%, 2.0%). No significant difference was seen in other outcomes.

CONCLUSION

While South Africa has made great strides to extend access to ART and increase the quality of the health services provided, patient care can be affected when stock shortages/outs occur. While our results show little effect on treatment outcomes, this most likely reflects the clinics' ability to mitigate the crisis by continuing to keep patient care and treatment as consistent as possible.

Marginal Structural Models to Assess Delays in Second-Line HIV Treatment Initiation in South Africa

Background

South African HIV treatment guidelines call for patients who fail first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) to be switched to second-line ART, yet logistical issues, clinician decisions and patient preferences make delay in switching to second-line likely. We explore the impact of delaying second-line ART after first-line treatment failure on rates of death and virologic failure.

Methods

We include patients with documented virologic failure on first-line ART from an observational cohort of 9 South African clinics. We explored predictors of delayed second-line switch and used marginal structural models to analyze rates of death following first-line failure by categorical time to switch to second-line. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine virologic failure on second-line ART among patients who switched to second-line.

Results

5895 patients failed first-line ART, and 63% switched to second-line. Among patients who switched, median time to switch was 3.4 months (IQR: 1.1–8.7 months). Longer time to switch was associated with higher CD4 counts, lower viral loads and more missed visits prior to first-line failure. Worse outcomes were associated with delay in second-line switch among patients with a peak CD4 count on first-line treatment ≤100 cells/mm³. Among these patients, marginal structural models showed increased risk of death (adjusted HR for switch in 6–12 months vs. 0–1.5 months = 1.47 (95% CI: 0.94–2.29), and Cox models showed increased rates of second-line virologic failure despite the presence of survivor bias (adjusted HR for switch in 3–6 months vs. 0–1.5 months = 2.13 (95% CI: 1.01–4.47)).

Conclusions

Even small delays in switch to second-line ART were associated with increased death and second-line failure among patients with low CD4 counts on first-line. There is opportunity for healthcare providers to switch patients to second-line more quickly.

Correction: Initiating Antiretroviral Therapy for HIV at a Patient's First Clinic Visit: The RapIT Randomized Controlled Trial

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002015.].

Age in antiretroviral therapy programmes in South Africa: a retrospective, multicentre, observational cohort study

BACKGROUND

As access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) expands, increasing numbers of older patients will start treatment and need specialised long-term care. However, the effect of age in ART programmes in resource-constrained settings is poorly understood. The HIV epidemic is ageing rapidly and South Africa has one of the highest HIV population prevalences worldwide. We explored the effect of age on mortality of patients on ART in South Africa and whether this effect is mediated by baseline immunological status.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort analysis, we studied HIV-positive patients aged 16-80 years who started ART for the first time in six large South African cohorts of the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS-Southern Africa collaboration, in KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng, and Western Cape (two primary care clinics, three hospitals, and a large rural cohort). The primary outcome was mortality. We ascertained patients' vital status through linkage to the National Population Register. We used inverse probability weighting to correct mortality for loss to follow-up. We estimated mortality using Cox's proportional hazards and competing risks regression. We tested the interaction between baseline CD4 cell count and age.

FINDINGS

Between Jan 1, 2004, and Dec 31, 2013, 84,078 eligible adults started ART. Of these, we followed up 83,566 patients for 174,640 patient-years. 8% (1817 of 23,258) of patients aged 16-29 years died compared with 19% (93 of 492) of patients aged 65 years or older. The age adjusted mortality hazard ratio was 2·52 (95% CI 2·01-3·17) for people aged 65 years or older compared with those 16-29 years of age. In patients starting ART with a CD4 count of less than 50 cells per μL, the adjusted mortality hazard ratio was 2·52 (2·04-3·11) for people aged 50 years or older compared with those 16-39 years old. Mortality was highest in patients with CD4 counts of less than 50 cells per μL, and 15% (1103 of 7295) of all patients aged 50 years or older starting ART were in this group. The proportion of patients aged 50 years or older enrolling in ART increased with successive years, from 6% (290 of 4999) in 2004 to 10% (961 of 9657) in 2012-13, comprising 9% of total enrolment (7295 of 83 566). At the end of the study, 6304 (14%) of 44,909 patients still alive and in care were aged 50 years or older.

INTERPRETATION

Health services need reorientation towards HIV diagnosis and starting of ART in older individuals. Policies are needed for long-term care of older people with HIV.

FUNDING

National Institutes of Health (National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases), US Agency for International Development, and South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis.

Effect of pregnancy and the postpartum period on adherence to antiretroviral therapy among HIV-infected women established on treatment

: Among women who become pregnant after initiating highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), few data describe the effect of pregnancy and postpartum on adherence. We conducted a retrospective clinical cohort study among therapy-naive women (age, 18-45 years) initiating HAART in Johannesburg, South Africa. Among 7510 women in our analysis, 896 experienced a pregnancy after starting HAART. Compared with nonpregnant periods of follow-up, there was an increased risk of nonadherence during the postpartum period (weighted risk ratio: 1.46, 95% confidence interval: 1.17 to 1.82) but not during pregnancy itself (weighted risk ratio: 0.95, 95% confidence interval: 0.78 to 1.17).

Attrition through multiple stages of pre-treatment and ART HIV care in South Africa

INTRODUCTION

While momentum for increasing treatment thresholds is growing, if patients cannot be retained in HIV care from the time of testing positive through long-term adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART), such strategies may fall short of expected gains. While estimates of retention on ART exist, few cohorts have data on retention from testing positive through long-term ART care.

METHODS

We explored attrition (loss or death) at the Themba Lethu HIV clinic, Johannesburg, South Africa in 3 distinct cohorts enrolled at HIV testing, pre-ART initiation, and ART initiation.

RESULTS

Between March 2010 and August 2012 we enrolled 380 patients testing HIV+, 206 initiating pre-ART care, and 185 initiating ART. Of the 380 patients enrolled at testing HIV-positive, 38.7% (95%CI: 33.9-43.7%) returned for eligibility staging within ≤3 months of testing. Of the 206 enrolled at pre-ART care, 84.5% (95%CI: 79.0-88.9%) were ART eligible at their first CD4 count. Of those, 87.9% (95%CI: 82.4-92.2%) initiated ART within 6 months. Among patients not ART eligible at their first CD4 count, 50.0% (95%CI: 33.1-66.9%) repeated their CD4 count within one year of the first ineligible CD4. Among the 185 patients in the ART cohort, 22 transferred out and were excluded from further analysis. Of the remaining 163, 81.0% (95%CI: 74.4-86.5%) were retained in care through two years on treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings from a well-resourced clinic demonstrate continual loss from all stages of HIV care and strategies to reduce attrition from all stages of care are urgently needed.