Epidemiological Patterns and Spatiotemporal Analysis of Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in Iran: Development of Public Health Strategies and Policies

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) stand out as the leading cause of mortality, and the mortality rate attributed to this disease is notably elevated in Iran. Consequently, dedicated studies on CVD become imperative.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study utilized data from the death registration system of the Ministry of Health, Treatment and Medical Education of Iran. In this study, the statistical population of all people who died due to CVD in Iran were18,146, 21,945, and 24,352 individuals in the years 2017, 2018, and 2019, respectively. The primary objective is to conduct a spatiotemporal analysis of CVD mortality spatiotemporally using GIS-based methodologies. To achieve this, CVD mortality data at the township level for the years 2017, 2018, and 2019 in Iran are subjected to spatial statistical tests, including Anselin Local Moran's I and Hot Spot Analysis (Getis-Ord Gi*), as well as analytical techniques such as Mean Center (MC), (SD), and (GIS).

RESULTS

The study identified a rising trend in cardiovascular disease-related deaths in Iran, reaching (46.36% females and 53.64 males), (45.39% females and 54.61% males) and (45.67% females and 54.33% males) individuals in the years 2017, 2018, and 2019, respectively. Throughout this period, the mortality rate was higher among men, with the elderly showing the highest mortality. Notably, distinct hotspots of cardiovascular disease mortality emerged in the western, southern, and eastern regions of Iran. These findings emphasize the importance of targeted interventions and further investigation into the contributing factors in these specific geographic areas.

CONCLUSION

Geographic factors are identified as significant contributors to an elevated risk of cardiovascular disease mortality. Our study, shedding light on the spatial dynamics of the disease, offers valuable insights for decision-makers. The findings can contribute to the formulation of effective strategies and policies, aligning with a Holistic Cardiovascular Health Strategy, Gender-Based Healthcare Policies, and Spatial Planning and Environmental Policies.

Decomposing socioeconomic disparity in the utilization of screening mammography: A cross-sectional analysis from the RaNCD cohort study

We aimed to examine the degree of socioeconomic inequality in screening mammography among Kurdish women of Iran. Data from the Ravansar Non-Communicable Diseases (RaNCD) Cohort Study were used. A total of 3,219 women aged 35-65 years were studied. The concentration index (CIn) was used to measure the magnitude of socioeconomic-related inequalities in screening mammography. Decomposition analysis was employed to calculate the contribution of each explanatory variable to the observed inequality. The participation rate for screening mammography was 19.7%. The CIn of screening mammography was 0.142 (95% CI: 0.0197, 0.0656), indicating that screening mammography is more concentrated among high-SES women. Socioeconomic status, education level and area of residence were the main contributors to the observed inequality, respectively. We found a pro-rich inequality in screening mammography among Iranian Kurdish women. For mitigating socioeconomic inequality in screening mammography policymakers should focus more on the poor and rural communities.

A prospective cohort study protocol: monitoring and surveillance of adverse events following heterologous booster doses of Oxford AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine in previous recipients of two doses of Sinopharm or Sputnik V vaccines in Iran

BACKGROUND

Regarding the paucity of evidence on the side effects of the booster dose of Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine in vaccinated people with Sinopharm or Sputnik V, we aimed to set up a cohort event monitoring (CEM) study to capture adverse events occurring in individuals who will receive the booster doses of AstraZeneca (either the first or second booster dose) following being vaccinated with Sinopharm or sputnik V vaccines in Iran.

METHODS

The present study is an active COVID-19 vaccine safety surveillance through an observational prospective cohort study that will be conducted in vaccination centers in Iran. The study will be conducted in twelve provinces of Iran. Study sites are vaccination centers where the AstraZeneca vaccine is administered to the cohort population. The study population includes all individuals who have received two doses of Sinopharm or Sputnik V vaccines and either the first or second booster dose of AstraZeneca according to the national guidelines for immunization in Iran in 2023. We are planning to include 30,000 eligible people in this study. Each individual will be followed up for 13 weeks after either the first or second booster dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine. Furthermore, convenience sampling is used to include participants in the present study. Participation in the study will be strictly voluntary.

DISCUSSION

With the planned study we will provide a valid epidemiological evidence to improve the understanding of the safety of the booster dose of the AstraZeneca and to better evaluate the effectiveness of public health interventions. This could help policy makers in managing the COVID-19 pandemic according to scientific evidence.

Willingness to pay for a COVID-19 vaccine and its associated determinants in Iran

Introduction

Understanding the individuals' willingness to pay (WTP) for the COVID-19 vaccine could help design policy interventions to control the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aimed to estimate the individuals' willingness to pay (WTP) for a COVID-19 vaccine and to identify its associated determinants.

Methods

A cross-sectional survey was conducted on 526 Iranian adults using a web-based questionnaire. A double-bounded contingent valuation approach was used to estimate WTP for the COVID-19 vaccine. The parameters of the model were estimated based on the maximum likelihood method.

Results

A considerable proportion of participants (90.87%) were willing to pay for a COVID-19 vaccine. Based on our discrete choice model, the estimated mean WTP for a COVID-19 vaccine was US$ 60.13 (CI: 56.80-63.46; p < 0.01). Having a higher perceived risk of being contaminated with COVID-19, higher average monthly income, higher education level, pre-existence of chronic diseases, previous experience of vaccination, and belonging to higher age groups were significant determinants associated with WTP for COVID-19 vaccination.

Conclusion

The present study indicates a relatively high WTP and acceptance of a COVID-19 vaccine among the Iranian population. Average monthly income, risk perception, education level, the preexistence of chronic disease, and previous vaccination experience increased the likelihood of WTP for a vaccine. Subsidizing the COVID-19 vaccine for the low-income population and raising risk perception among the population should be considered in formulating vaccine-related interventions.

Measurement and Decomposition of Socioeconomic Inequality in Metabolic Syndrome: A Cross-sectional Analysis of the RaNCD Cohort Study in the West of Iran

OBJECTIVES

Socioeconomic inequality in metabolic syndrome (MetS) remains poorly understood in Iran. The present study examined the extent of the socioeconomic inequalities in MetS and quantified the contribution of its determinants to explain the observed inequality, with a focus on middle-aged adults in Iran.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study used data from the Ravansar Non-Communicable Disease cohort study. A sample of 9975 middle-aged adults aged 35-65 years was analyzed. MetS was assessed based on the International Diabetes Federation definition. Principal component analysis was used to construct socioeconomic status (SES). The Wagstaff normalized concentration index (CIn) was employed to measure the magnitude of socioeconomic inequalities in MetS. Decomposition analysis was performed to identify and calculate the contribution of the MetS inequality determinants.

RESULTS

The proportion of MetS in the sample was 41.1%. The CIn of having MetS was 0.043 (95% confidence interval, 0.020 to 0.066), indicating that MetS was more concentrated among individuals with high SES. The main contributors to the observed inequality in MetS were SES (72.0%), residence (rural or urban, 46.9%), and physical activity (31.5%).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicated a pro-poor inequality in MetS among Iranian middle-aged adults. These results highlight the importance of persuading middle-aged adults to be physically active, particularly those in an urban setting. In addition to targeting physically inactive individuals and those with low levels of education, policy interventions aimed at mitigating socioeconomic inequality in MetS should increase the focus on high-SES individuals and the urban population.

Socioeconomic disparities in using rehabilitation services among Iranian adults with disabilities: a decomposition analysis

BACKGROUND

Persons with disabilities (PWD) generally experience various barriers in using health care compared to the general population, and these problems are more worsened for those with disabilities in lower socioeconomic status. The study aimed to estimate socioeconomic inequality in using rehabilitation services (URS) in adults with disabilities in Iran.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study was conducted at a national level in Iran. 786 PWD (aged 18 years and older) participated in the study between September and December 2020. Socioeconomic-related inequality in URS was estimated by the Concentration Index (C). The C was decomposed to identify factors explaining the variability within the socioeconomic inequality in URS.

RESULTS

In the present study 8.10% (N = 61) of the study population used rehabilitation services during the past three months. In this study, the value of the C was estimated 0.25 (p-value = 0.025) that shows URS was unequally distributed, and concentrated among the higher SES groups. The results of decomposition analysis indicated that the wealth index was the largest contributor (94.22%) to the observed socioeconomic inequalities in URS among PWD. Following the wealth index, Age and marital status were the major contributors to the unequal distribution of URS among the study population.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings revealed that socioeconomic inequality in using rehabilitation services was concentrated among well-off PWD. Accordingly, rehabilitation financing through appropriate mechanisms for individuals with low SES is suggested.

Socioeconomic inequalities in prevalence, awareness, treatment and control of hypertension: evidence from the PERSIAN cohort study

Background

Elevated blood pressure is associated with cardiovascular disease, stroke and chronic kidney disease. In this study, we examined the socioeconomic inequality and its related factors in prevalence, Awareness, Treatment and Control (ATC) of hypertension (HTN) in Iran.

Method

The study used data from the recruitment phase of The Prospective Epidemiological Research Studies in IrAN (PERSIAN). A sample of 162,842 adults aged >  = 35 years was analyzed. HTN was defined according to the Joint National Committee)JNC-7(. socioeconomic inequality was measured using concentration index (Cn) and curve.

Results

The mean age of participants was 49.38(SD =  ± 9.14) years and 44.74% of the them were men. The prevalence of HTN in the total population was 22.3%(95% CI: 20.6%; 24.1%), and 18.8%(95% CI: 16.8%; 20.9%) and 25.2%(95% CI: 24.2%; 27.7%) in men and women, respectively. The percentage of awareness treatment and control among individuals with HTN were 77.5%(95% CI: 73.3%; 81.8%), 82.2%(95% CI: 70.2%; 81.6%) and 75.9%(95% CI: 70.2%; 81.6%), respectively. The Cn for prevalence of HTN was -0.084. Two factors, age (58.46%) and wealth (32.40%), contributed most to the socioeconomic inequality in the prevalence of HTN.

Conclusion

The prevalence of HTN was higher among low-SES individuals, who also showed higher levels of awareness. However, treatment and control of HTN were more concentrated among those who had higher levels of SES, indicating that people at a higher risk of adverse event related to HTN (the low SES individuals) are not benefiting from the advantage of treatment and control of HTN. Such a gap between diagnosis (prevalence) and control (treatment and control) of HTN needs to be addressed by public health policymakers.

Investigating Global Spatial Patterns of Diarrhea-Related Mortality in Children Under Five

Objective

Investigating the trends of child diarrhea-related mortality (DRM) is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of its prevention and control efforts worldwide. This study explores the spatial patterns of diarrhea-related mortality in children under five for monitoring and designing effective intervention programs.

Methods

The data used in this study was obtained from the World Health Organization (WHO) public dataset that contained data from 195 countries from the year 2000 to 2017. This dataset contained 13,541,989 DRM cases. The worldwide spatial pattern of DRM was analyzed at the country level utilizing geographic information system (GIS) software. Moran's I, Getis-Ord Gi, Mean center, and Standard Deviational Ellipse (SDE) techniques were used to conduct the spatial analysis.

Results

The spatial pattern of DRM was clustered all across the world during the study period from 2000 to 2017. The results revealed that Asian and African countries had the highest incidence of DRM worldwide. The findings from the spatial modeling also revealed that the focal point of death from diarrhea was mainly in Asian countries until 2010, and this focus shifted to Africa in 2011.

Conclusion

DRM is common among children who live in Asia and Africa. These concentrations may also be due to differences in knowledge, attitude, and practices regarding diarrhea. Through GIS analysis, the study was able to map the distribution of DRM in temporal and spatial dimensions and identify the hotspots of DRM across the globe.

Contributing factors to healthcare costs in individuals with autism spectrum disorder: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) are more likely to use healthcare than their counterparts without disabilities, which imposes high medical costs to families and health systems. This study aimed to investigate healthcare costs and its determinants among individuals with ASD.

METHODS

In this systematic review, we searched online databases (Web of Science, Medline through PubMed and Scopus) for observational and experimental studies that included data on service use and costs associated with ASD and published between January 2000 and May 2021. Exclusion criteria included non-English language articles, duplicates, abstracts, qualitative studies, gray literature, and non-original papers (e.g., letters to editors, editorials, reviews, etc.).

RESULTS

Our searches yielded 4015 articles screened according to PRISMA guidelines. Of 4015 studies identified, 37 articles from 10 countries were eligible for final inclusion. Therapeutic interventions, outpatient visits and medications constituted the largest proportion of direct medical expenditure on individuals with ASD. Included studies suggest lack of health insurance, having associated morbidities, more severe symptoms, younger age groups and lower socioeconomic status (SES) are associated with higher medical expenditure in individuals with ASD.

CONCLUSIONS

This systematic review identified a range of factors, including lower SES and lack of health insurance, which are associated with higher healthcare costs in people with ASD. Our study supports the formulation of policy options to reduce financial risks in families of individuals with ASD in countries which do not have a tax-based or universal health coverage system.

Socio-economic inequality in reported dental self-care behavior among Iranian households: a national pooled study

BACKGROUND

Setting out effective prevention strategies in dental diseases needs recognition related factors of the prevention behaviors and targeting the most disadvantaged groups in the term of dental hygiene. This study aimed to investigate socio-economic inequality in the dental self-care status (DSS) of Iranian households and decompose the measured inequality into its contributors.

METHOD

In this cross-sectional study pooled data was extracted from Households Income and Expenditure Surveys (HIESs) conducted in Iran from 2012 to 2017. The index of socioeconomic status (SES) for each household was constructed using principal components analysis (PCA). We used Wagstaff normalized concentration index as a measure of socioeconomic inequality in dental self-care. Decomposition analysis was applied to determine the main factors contributed to the measured inequality.

RESULTS

The prevalence of dental self-care in the whole population was 40.56%. The total concentration index was 0.271 (CI: 0.266, 0.275). The results of decomposition analysis for the measured inequality showed that SES, was the highest positive contributors (90.19 %) followed by sex of household's head (12.15 %), place of residence (11.79 %), and education level of household's head (11.71 %). Furthermore, the province of residence had the highest negative contribution (-11.37) to the inequality.

CONCLUSION

The findings of this study showed that a huge portion of the observed inequality was explained by SES that might give us a policy recommendation: There is room for improving dental health and reducing inequality in dental self-care by paying more attention to SES-disadvantaged households.

Sexual health concerns in women with intellectual disabilities: a systematic review in qualitative studies

BACKGROUND

Studies indicate that women with intellectual disabilities (ID) face various personal and socio-environmental barriers in their sexual lives. This study aimed to identify the concerns and sexual health needs experienced by women with ID.

METHOD

A systematic review of relevant qualitative articles was conducted in PubMed, Web of Science Scopus and PsycINFO databases from June 2018 to August 2018. We designed our search strategy according to two main foci: (1) sexuality; and (2) women with ID. In the study, searches were limited to articles published from January 2000 to December 2017. In this review, studies on women ages 16 and over were included.

RESULTS

Within the four databases, the search found 274 unique articles. After three steps of screening (title, abstract and full text), 22 studies were included in the final review. The articles mentioned difficulties with lack of sexual experience, negative experiences with sexuality, negative attitudes towards sexuality by nondisabled individuals, limited cognitive capacities to understand sexual identity, difficulty with finding the right partner, lack of access to sexual health information, lack of school-based sexuality education, violence and sexual abuse, lack of support from families and caregivers about sexuality, fear of sexual acts and unwanted pregnancy, shyness in expressing sexual desires, and limited knowledge of sexual behaviors.

CONCLUSION

Our findings indicate that women with ID need to be provided with school-based sexuality education tailored to the level of understanding needed to attain the requisite knowledge to form relationships, understand sexual and romantic relationships, and practice safe sex when they choose this option. Families along with education and healthcare systems should provide opportunities for women with ID to talk about their sexual needs and make their own choices.

Tracking development assistance for health and for COVID-19: a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2050

BACKGROUND

The rapid spread of COVID-19 renewed the focus on how health systems across the globe are financed, especially during public health emergencies. Development assistance is an important source of health financing in many low-income countries, yet little is known about how much of this funding was disbursed for COVID-19. We aimed to put development assistance for health for COVID-19 in the context of broader trends in global health financing, and to estimate total health spending from 1995 to 2050 and development assistance for COVID-19 in 2020.

METHODS

We estimated domestic health spending and development assistance for health to generate total health-sector spending estimates for 204 countries and territories. We leveraged data from the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database to produce estimates of domestic health spending. To generate estimates for development assistance for health, we relied on project-level disbursement data from the major international development agencies' online databases and annual financial statements and reports for information on income sources. To adjust our estimates for 2020 to include disbursements related to COVID-19, we extracted project data on commitments and disbursements from a broader set of databases (because not all of the data sources used to estimate the historical series extend to 2020), including the UN Office of Humanitarian Assistance Financial Tracking Service and the International Aid Transparency Initiative. We reported all the historic and future spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2020 US$, 2020 US$ per capita, purchasing-power parity-adjusted US$ per capita, and as a proportion of gross domestic product. We used various models to generate future health spending to 2050.

FINDINGS

In 2019, health spending globally reached $8·8 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·7-8·8) or $1132 (1119-1143) per person. Spending on health varied within and across income groups and geographical regions. Of this total, $40·4 billion (0·5%, 95% UI 0·5-0·5) was development assistance for health provided to low-income and middle-income countries, which made up 24·6% (UI 24·0-25·1) of total spending in low-income countries. We estimate that $54·8 billion in development assistance for health was disbursed in 2020. Of this, $13·7 billion was targeted toward the COVID-19 health response. $12·3 billion was newly committed and $1·4 billion was repurposed from existing health projects. $3·1 billion (22·4%) of the funds focused on country-level coordination and $2·4 billion (17·9%) was for supply chain and logistics. Only $714·4 million (7·7%) of COVID-19 development assistance for health went to Latin America, despite this region reporting 34·3% of total recorded COVID-19 deaths in low-income or middle-income countries in 2020. Spending on health is expected to rise to $1519 (1448-1591) per person in 2050, although spending across countries is expected to remain varied.

INTERPRETATION

Global health spending is expected to continue to grow, but remain unequally distributed between countries. We estimate that development organisations substantially increased the amount of development assistance for health provided in 2020. Continued efforts are needed to raise sufficient resources to mitigate the pandemic for the most vulnerable, and to help curtail the pandemic for all.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Eliciting preferences of patients about the quality of hospital services in the west of Iran using discrete choice experiment analysis

Objectives

Knowing about accurate customer expectations is the most important step in defining and delivering high-quality services. This study aimed to evaluate the preferences of patients referring to two hospitals in Kermanshah, Iran.

Method

Discrete choice experiment (DCE) method used to elicit preferences of 328 patients who were admitted in two hospitals of Kermanshah city in the west of Iran. Literature review and experts opinion were used to identify a candidate list of attributes related to the quality of cares in hospitals. The final study attributes were quality of physician care, quality of nursing care, waiting time for admission, cleaning of wards and toilets, and behavior of staff. Experimental design applied to extract choice sets of hospitals. The data was analyzed by a conditional logit regression.

Results

The regression results showed the most important predictors of hospital selection by respondents was the good quality of physician care (aOR: 3.18, 95% CI 2.61, 3.87), followed by friendly behavior of staffs (aOR: 2.03, 95% CI 1.81, 2.27), cleanness of wards and toilet (aOR: 1.61, 95% CI 1.40, 1.85), and finally quality of nursing cares (aOR: 1.13, 95% CI 0.89, 1.44). However, increasing waiting time made disutility in the study participants (aOR: 0.69, 95% CI 0.60, 0.80).

Conclusions

Our study finding emphasized some potential opportunity of quality augmentation in hospital sector by paying attention to different quality attributes including quality of physician, friendly behavior of staffs, cleanness of hospital environment and finally quality of nursing cares. Considering patients preferences in decision making process could lead to substantial satisfaction improvement.

Health-care determinants of mortality and recovered cases from COVID-19: Do heath systems respond COVID-19 similarly?

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has spread rapidly across the world and has currently impacted most countries and territories globally. This study aimed to identify health-care determinants of mortality and recovery rates of COVID-19 and compare the efficiency of health systems in response to this pandemic.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted using data obtained from the World Bank database, that provides free and open access to a comprehensive set of health- and socioeconomic-related data, by September 12, 2020. An adjusted linear regression model was applied to determine predictors of mortality (per 1 million population [MP]) and recovery rates (per 1 MP) in the included countries. One-way analysis of variance was applied to assess health systems' efficiency in response to COVID-19 pandemic using mortality and recovery rate (output variables) and current health expenditure (CHE) per capita (input variable).

RESULTS

Globally, San Marino and Qatar had the highest mortality rate (1237/1 MP) and confirmed case rate (43,280/1 MP) until September 12, 2020, respectively. Iran had a higher mortality rate (273/1 MP vs. 214.5/1 MP) and lower recovery rate (4091.5/1 MP vs. 6477.2/1 MP) compared to countries with high CHE per capita. CHE per capita (standardized coefficient [SC] = 0.605, P < 0.001) and population aged 65 years and over as a percentage of total population (SC = -0.79, P < 0.001) significantly predicted recovered cases from COVID-19 in the included countries.

CONCLUSION

This study revealed that countries with higher CHE per capita and higher proportion of older adults were more likely to have a higher recovery rate than those with lower ones. Furthermore, our study indicated that health systems with higher CHE per capita statistically had a greater efficiency in response to COVID-19 compared to those with lower CHE per capita. More attention to preventive strategies, early detection, and early intervention is suggested to improve the health system efficiency in controlling COVID-19 and its related mortalities worldwide.

Development of synbiotic added sucrose-free mango nectar as a potential substrate for Lactobacillus casei: Physicochemical characterisation and consumer acceptability during storage

The study was carried out to evaluate the viability of probiotic bacteria as well as physicochemical and sensory characteristics of synbiotic added sucrose-free mango nectar. The mango nectar samples were prepared incorporating different concentrations of inulin and stevia (0, 2 and 4% w/w) and stored for 45 days at 4 °C. The results indicated that the growth of Lactobacillus casei was strongly influenced by the beverage composition. Therefore, the addition of inulin and stevia had a positive effect on the viability of L. casei, especially with 2% w/w inulin or inulin in combination with stevia. However, bacterial viability reduced during storage. According to the results, pH and total soluble solid content of the samples decreased during storage; however, the viscosity values of mango nectars were elevated by the addition of inulin and stevia. Additionally, all beverages were considered a suitable medium to keep the L. casei survival above the minimum recommended value (106–107 CFU mL−1) during storage. In general, it can be concluded that the sample containing 2% inulin and 2% stevia in combination provided the best viability of L. casei with acceptable physicochemical properties and sensory characteristics that could be introduced as synbiotic and low-calorie mango nectar.

Barriers in access to healthcare for women with disabilities: a systematic review in qualitative studies

Background

Studies show that different socio-economic and structural factors can limit access to healthcare for women with disabilities. The aim of the current study was to review barriers in access to healthcare services for women with disabilities (WWD) internationally.

Methods

We conducted a systematic review of relevant qualitative articles in PubMed, Web of Science and Scopus databases from January 2009 to December 2017. The search strategy was based on two main topics: (1) access to healthcare; and (2) disability. In this review, women (older than 18) with different kinds of disabilities (physical, sensory and intellectual disabilities) were included. Studies were excluded if they were not peer-reviewed, and had a focus on men with disabilities.

Results

Twenty four articles met the inclusion criteria for the final review. In each study, participants noted various barriers to accessing healthcare. Findings revealed that WWD faced different sociocultural (erroneous assumptions, negative attitudes, being ignored, being judged, violence, abuse, insult, impoliteness, and low health literacy), financial (poverty, unemployment, high transportation costs) and structural (lack of insurance coverage, inaccessible equipment and transportation facilities, lack of knowledge, lack of information, lack of transparency, and communicative problems) factors which impacted their access healthcare.

Conclusions

Healthcare systems need to train the healthcare workforce to respect WWD, pay attention to their preferences and choices, provide non-discriminatory and respectful treatment, and address stigmatizing attitudinal towards WWD. In addition, families and communities need to participate in advocacy efforts to promote WWD’s access to health care.

Explaining Socioeconomic Inequality Differences in Catastrophic Health Expenditure Between Urban and Rural Areas of Iran After Health Transformation Plan Implementation

Objective

Ensuring fair financial contribution is one of the main goals of the Health Transformation Plan (HTP) of Iran. This study aims to estimate socioeconomic inequality differences in catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) between urban and rural areas of Iran after the implementation of the HTP during 2017.

Materials and Methods

Data from a representative survey of households’ income and xpenditure from the Iran Statistical Center (ISC) were used for the analysis. We applied the World Health Organization (WHO) cut-off of 40% payment for CHE, and Wagstaff’s normalized concentration index (C) to measure and decompose the inequality. Also, Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition analysis was used to decompose contributors of inequality differences between rural and urban areas.

Results

The overall incidence of CHE among Iranian households during the year 2017 was 3.32% with a standard deviation (SD) of 17.91%, and the mean (SD) levels of CHE in rural and urban areas of Iran were 4.37% (20.45%) and 2.97% (16.99%), respectively. The aggregate socioeconomic status (SES)-related inequality in CHE was significantly (p<0.001) different from zero (C=−0.238) and there was a significant (p<0.05) difference between rural (C=-0.150) and urban (C=0.218) areas. SES was the highest contributor to inequality in both rural (130.09) and urban (144.17) areas. The Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition revealed that SES (175.01%) followed by outpatient services (120.29%) were the main contributors to differences in inequality in rural and urban areas. Sex (−101.42%) and health insurance coverage were among negative contributors to this inequality difference.

Conclusion

Our findings revealed a significant pro-rich inequality in CHE. Also, some variables, such as sex and region, made different contributions in rural and urban areas. However, SES, itself, made the highest contribution in both areas and explained the greatest share of difference in inequality between the two areas. This issue calls for revision of the HTP to further address the risk of CHE and socioeconomic disparity among Iranian households, especially those with lowSES.

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease.

METHODS

GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk-outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk-outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk-outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden.

FINDINGS

The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51-12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9-21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12-9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6-16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253-350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3-13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0-9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10-24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25-49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50-74 years and 75 years and older.

INTERPRETATION

Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Socioeconomic Determinants of Disability and Mortality Due to Congenital Anomalies: A Secondary Analysis of Existing Data

Objective: Congenital anomalies are functional or structural anomalies that can occur as a single or a group of anomalies. Studies have shown that socioeconomic factors can affect congenital anomalies such that the middle- and low-income countries suffer more from the congenital anomalies. This study aimed to determine the essential socioeconomic determinants of the disability-adjusted life year (DALY) for congenital anomalies in children aged <5 years. Materials & Methods: This is a cross-sectional study using the latest available data in 2017, which were extracted from the international databases of the World Bank, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, and the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization. In the study, we analyzed data from 196 countries divided into 6 geographical regions of African Region (AFRO), European Region (EURO), Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMRO), Western Pacific Region (WPRO), and South-East Asia Region (SEARO). To identify the main determinants of the DALY, gross domestic products (GDP) per capita, poverty rate, government, private and external health expenditures per capita, mean years of schooling, and literacy rate were used. Data analysis was performed in STATA v.15 using the one-way ANOVA and the linear regression analysis. Results: The lowest and highest rates of DALY was reported in Luxembourg (856.29 per 100000 population) and Sudan (21714.7 per 100000 population), respectively. The AFRO and EURO regions had the highest (9392.78±4250.56), and the lowest (2969.11±1961.64) mean of DALY. In Iran, the DALY rate was reported 7721.48 per 100000 population, which was higher than those in the EURO and PAHO regions and lower than those in the AFRO and EMRO regions. The results of linear regression analysis showed that mean years of schooling was the strongest predictor of DALY (β=-0.44, P=0.001) followed by the poverty rate (β=0.36, P=0.002). The results of one-way ANOVA indicated that the rate of DALY was significantly different between different social and economic groups, and it was higher in the lower socioeconomic groups. Conclusion: Mean years of schooling and poverty rate are the strongest predictors of DALY for congenital anomalies in children under 5 years of age. Low-income countries, especially those in the AFRO and EMRO regions, are the most prone to the disability and premature death caused by congenital anomalies in children under 5 years of age compared to the high-income countries. Therefore, the equitable distribution of screening and health care services and educational infrastructures for deprived and lower socioeconomic countries should be taken into account by national and international health organizations.

Socioeconomic inequality in dental caries experience expressed by the significant caries index: cross-sectional results from the RaNCD Cohort Study

INTRODUCTION

Socioeconomic inequality in dental caries among Iranian middle-aged adults remains largely unstudied. This study aimed to measure socioeconomic inequality in dental caries experience and to identify determinants of this inequality.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data were obtained from the Ravansar Non-Communicable Diseases (RaNCD) Cohort Study. This cross-sectional analysis included 10,002 adults aged 35-65 years. Caries experience was dichotomised based on the decayed, missing and filled teeth (DMFT) of one-third of the population with the highest caries scores (i.e. significant caries index). Socioeconomic status (SES) was calculated using the principal component analysis. The concentration index (CI) was used to quantify the extent of socioeconomic inequality in dental caries experience. Decomposition analysis was conducted to quantify the contribution of each determinant to the observed inequality.

RESULTS

The mean DMFT for all individuals was 16.1(SD 9.1). The CI of having significant dental caries was -0.236 (95% CI: -0.0259, -0.213), indicating that having significant dental caries was more concentrated among low-SES individuals. SES (65.6%), age group (24.7%) and female gender (3.7%) were found to have the largest percentage of contributions to the observed inequality in dental caries.

CONCLUSION

This study indicates pro-rich inequalities in dental caries experience among middle-aged adults in Iran. The findings highlight the importance of early prevention of dental caries experience before it happens. To mitigate inequalities in dental caries experience, policy interventions should focus on females, older age groups, and low-SES individuals.

Interim value set for the EQ-5D-5L in Iran using the Crosswalk method

Background: The EuroQol five-dimensional 5 level (EQ-5D-5L) value set is not currently available for the Iranian general public, while the value set for EuroQol five-dimensional 3 level (EQ-5D-3L) is available. The present study aimed to generate an interim EQ-5D-5L value set for the context of Iran. Methods: The Iranian interim EQ-5D-5L value set was generated using the crosswalk method, which maps EQ-5D-3L and EQ-5D-5L responses. The EQ-5D-3L value set has previously been estimated by Time Trade-Off (TTO) method. The interim value set obtained for EQ-5D-5L was compared with the value set of EQ-5D-3L by using measures of mean, median, and skewness.The analysis was done using STATA version 15. Results: The mean and median scores of the Iranian interim value set were 0.499 and 0.451 for EQ-5D-5L and 0.455 and 0.459 for Iranian EQ-5D-3L, respectively. The range of value for both EQ-5D-3L and interim EQ-5D-5L was -0.113 to 0.919. Data skewness of EQ-5D-3L and interim EQ-5D-5L was-0.099 and -0.114, respectively. In addition, the figure of distribution of value sets for both data sets had a tail extended towards the left. The states of "good health"(i.e., states with value>0.8) for the EQ-5D-3L value set were proportionally more than the Iranian interim EQ-5D-5Lcrosswalk value set (2.47% vs. 0.448%). Conclusion: An EQ-5D-5L value set was generated using the crosswalk method for the Iranian general public, and now researchers and policy-makers can apply it to their economic and clinical analyses.

Decomposing socioeconomic inequality in dental caries in Iran: cross-sectional results from the PERSIAN cohort study

Background

The current study aimed to measure and decompose socioeconomic-related inequalities in DMFT (decayed, missing, and filled teeth) index among adults in Iran.

Methods

The study data were extracted from the adult component of Prospective Epidemiological Research Studies in IrAN (PERSIAN) from 17 centers in 14 different provinces of Iran. DMFT score was used as a measure of dental caries among adults in Iran. The concentration curve and relative concentration index (RC) was used to quantify and decompose socioeconomic-related inequalities in DMFT.

Results

A total of 128,813 adults aged 35 and older were included in the study. The mean (Standard Deviation [SD]) score of D, M, F and DMFT of the adults was 3.3 (4.6), 12.6 (10.5), 2.1 (3.4) and 18.0 (9.5), respectively. The findings suggested that DMFT was mainly concentrated among the socioeconomically disadvantaged adults (RC = - 0.064; 95% confidence interval [CI), - 0.066 to - 0.063). Socioeconomic status, being male, older age and being a widow or divorced were identified as the main factors contributing to the concentration of DMFT among the worse-off adults.

Conclusions

It is recommended to focus on the dental caries status of socioeconomically disadvantaged groups in order to reduce socioeconomic-related inequality in oral health among Iranian adults. Reducing socioeconomic-related inequalities in dental caries should be accompanied by appropriate health promotion policies that focus actions on the fundamental socioeconomic causes of dental disease.

Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea.

METHODS

We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates.

FINDINGS

The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1-65·8), 17·4% (7·7-28·4), and 59·5% (34·2-86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage.

INTERPRETATION

By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Using Insights from Behavioral Economics to Mitigate the Spread of COVID-19

The outbreak of 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has become a public health emergency of international concern. The number of COVID-infected individuals and related deaths continues to rise rapidly. Encouraging people to adopt and sustain preventive behaviors is a central focus of public health policies that seek to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Public health policy needs improved methods to encourage people to adhere to COVID-19-preventive behaviors. In this paper, we introduce a number of insights from behavioral economics that help explain why people may behave irrationally during the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, present bias, status quo bias, framing effect, optimism bias, affect heuristic, and herding behavior are discussed. We hope this paper will shed light on how insights from behavioral economics can enrich public health policies and interventions in the fight against COVID-19.

Decomposing socioeconomic inequality in poor mental health among Iranian adult population: results from the PERSIAN cohort study

BACKGROUND

Socioeconomic inequality in mental health in Iran is poorly understood. This study aimed to assess socioeconomic inequality in poor mental health among Iranian adults.

METHODS

The study used the baseline data of PERSIAN cohort study including 131,813 participants from 17 geographically distinct areas of Iran. The Erreygers Concentration index (E) was used to quantify the socioeconomic inequalities in poor mental health. Moreover, we decomposed the E to identify factors contributing to the observed socioeconomic inequality in poor mental health in Iran.

RESULTS

The estimated E for poor mental health was - 0.012 (95% CI: - 0.0144, - 0.0089), indicating slightly higher concentration of mental health problem among socioeconomically disadvantaged adults in Iran. Socioeconomic inequality in poor mental health was mainly explained by gender (19.93%) and age (12.70%). Region, SES itself, and physical activity were other important factors that contributed to the concentration of poor mental health among adults with low socioeconomic status.

CONCLUSION

There exists nearly equitable distribution in poor mental health among Iranian adults, but with important variations by gender, SES, and geography. These results suggested that interventional programs in Iran should focus on should focus more on socioeconomically disadvantaged people as a whole, with particular attention to the needs of women and those living in more socially disadvantaged regions.

Socioeconomic - related inequalities in overweight and obesity: findings from the PERSIAN cohort study

Background

Overweight and obesity are major health concerns worldwide, with adverse health consequences during the life span. This study measured socioeconomic inequality in overweight and obesity among Iranian adults.

Methods

Data were extracted from 129,257 Iranian adults (aged 35 years and older) participated in the Prospective Epidemiologic Research Studies in IrAN (PERSIAN) in 14 provinces of Iran in 2014. Socioeconomic-related inequality in overweight and obesity was estimated using the Concentration Index (C_n). The C_n further decomposed to find factors explaining the variability within the Socioeconomic related inequality in overweight and obesity.

Results

Of the total number of participants, 1.98, 26.82, 40.76 and 30.43% had underweight, normal weight, overweight and obesity respectively. The age-and sex standardized prevalence of obesity was higher in females than males (39.85% vs 18.79%). People with high socioeconomic status (SES) had a 39 and 15% higher chance of being overweight and obese than low SES people, respectively. The positive value of C_n suggested a higher concentration of overweight (0.081, 95% confidence interval [CI]; 0.074–0.087) and obesity (0.027, 95% CI; 0.021–0.034) among groups with high SES. There was a wide variation in socioeconomic-related inequality in overweight and obesity rate across 14 provinces. The decomposition results suggested that SES factor itself explained 66.77 and 89.07% of the observed socioeconomic inequalities in overweight and obesity among Iranian adults respectively. Following SES, province of residence, physical activity, using hookah and smoking were the major contributors to the concentration of overweight and obesity among the rich.

Conclusions

Overall, we found that overweight and obesity is concentrated among high SES people in the study population. . Accordingly, it seems that intersectional actions should be taken to control and prevent overweight and obesity among higher socioeconomic groups.

Global, Regional, and National Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life-Years for 29 Cancer Groups, 1990 to 2017: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study

Importance

Cancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are now widely recognized as a threat to global development. The latest United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs reaffirmed this observation and also highlighted the slow progress in meeting the 2011 Political Declaration on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases and the third Sustainable Development Goal. Lack of situational analyses, priority setting, and budgeting have been identified as major obstacles in achieving these goals. All of these have in common that they require information on the local cancer epidemiology. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is uniquely poised to provide these crucial data.

Objective

To describe cancer burden for 29 cancer groups in 195 countries from 1990 through 2017 to provide data needed for cancer control planning.

Evidence Review

We used the GBD study estimation methods to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results are presented at the national level as well as by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and total fertility rate. We also analyzed the influence of the epidemiological vs the demographic transition on cancer incidence.

Findings

In 2017, there were 24.5 million incident cancer cases worldwide (16.8 million without nonmelanoma skin cancer [NMSC]) and 9.6 million cancer deaths. The majority of cancer DALYs came from years of life lost (97%), and only 3% came from years lived with disability. The odds of developing cancer were the lowest in the low SDI quintile (1 in 7) and the highest in the high SDI quintile (1 in 2) for both sexes. In 2017, the most common incident cancers in men were NMSC (4.3 million incident cases); tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer (1.5 million incident cases); and prostate cancer (1.3 million incident cases). The most common causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for men were TBL cancer (1.3 million deaths and 28.4 million DALYs), liver cancer (572 000 deaths and 15.2 million DALYs), and stomach cancer (542 000 deaths and 12.2 million DALYs). For women in 2017, the most common incident cancers were NMSC (3.3 million incident cases), breast cancer (1.9 million incident cases), and colorectal cancer (819 000 incident cases). The leading causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for women were breast cancer (601 000 deaths and 17.4 million DALYs), TBL cancer (596 000 deaths and 12.6 million DALYs), and colorectal cancer (414 000 deaths and 8.3 million DALYs).

Conclusions and Relevance

The national epidemiological profiles of cancer burden in the GBD study show large heterogeneities, which are a reflection of different exposures to risk factors, economic settings, lifestyles, and access to care and screening. The GBD study can be used by policy makers and other stakeholders to develop and improve national and local cancer control in order to achieve the global targets and improve equity in cancer care.

Socioeconomic gradient in physical activity: findings from the PERSIAN cohort study

Background

The level of socioeconomic-related inequality in physical activity in Iran is largely unknown. This study investigates socioeconomic-related inequality in poor-physical activity (PPA) among Iranian adults.

Methods

A total of 129,257 adult participants enrolled in the PERSIAN (Prospective Epidemiological Research Studies in IrAN) Cohort were included in this study. Physical activity of adults was measured using metabolic equivalent rates (METs). Physical activity less than 41 METs/hour/day was considered PPA. The Concentration index (C) was used to quantify socioeconomic-related inequality in PPA. Moreover, the C was decomposed to identify the relative contribution of explanatory variables to inequality in PPA.

Results

There were significant regional variations in physical activity level among Iranian adults (29.8–76.5%). The positive value of C (0.098, 95% CI = 0.092 to 0.104) suggested that the higher concentration of PPA among higher socioeconomic status (SES) adults in Iran which was consistently observed in all cohort sites.

Conclusions

The higher prevalence of PPA among Iranian adults, especially, women and older adults, warrant further public health attention. Since PPA is concentrated more among the high-SES population in Iran, strategies for the promotion of physical activity should focus more on economically well-off population.

Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2-to end preventable child deaths by 2030-we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000-2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.

Past, present, and future of global health financing: a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 195 countries, 1995-2050

BACKGROUND

Comprehensive and comparable estimates of health spending in each country are a key input for health policy and planning, and are necessary to support the achievement of national and international health goals. Previous studies have tracked past and projected future health spending until 2040 and shown that, with economic development, countries tend to spend more on health per capita, with a decreasing share of spending from development assistance and out-of-pocket sources. We aimed to characterise the past, present, and predicted future of global health spending, with an emphasis on equity in spending across countries.

METHODS

We estimated domestic health spending for 195 countries and territories from 1995 to 2016, split into three categories-government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending-and estimated development assistance for health (DAH) from 1990 to 2018. We estimated future scenarios of health spending using an ensemble of linear mixed-effects models with time series specifications to project domestic health spending from 2017 through 2050 and DAH from 2019 through 2050. Data were extracted from a broad set of sources tracking health spending and revenue, and were standardised and converted to inflation-adjusted 2018 US dollars. Incomplete or low-quality data were modelled and uncertainty was estimated, leading to a complete data series of total, government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending, and DAH. Estimates are reported in 2018 US dollars, 2018 purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars, and as a percentage of gross domestic product. We used demographic decomposition methods to assess a set of factors associated with changes in government health spending between 1995 and 2016 and to examine evidence to support the theory of the health financing transition. We projected two alternative future scenarios based on higher government health spending to assess the potential ability of governments to generate more resources for health.

FINDINGS

Between 1995 and 2016, health spending grew at a rate of 4·00% (95% uncertainty interval 3·89-4·12) annually, although it grew slower in per capita terms (2·72% [2·61-2·84]) and increased by less than $1 per capita over this period in 22 of 195 countries. The highest annual growth rates in per capita health spending were observed in upper-middle-income countries (5·55% [5·18-5·95]), mainly due to growth in government health spending, and in lower-middle-income countries (3·71% [3·10-4·34]), mainly from DAH. Health spending globally reached $8·0 trillion (7·8-8·1) in 2016 (comprising 8·6% [8·4-8·7] of the global economy and $10·3 trillion [10·1-10·6] in purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars), with a per capita spending of US$5252 (5184-5319) in high-income countries, $491 (461-524) in upper-middle-income countries, $81 (74-89) in lower-middle-income countries, and $40 (38-43) in low-income countries. In 2016, 0·4% (0·3-0·4) of health spending globally was in low-income countries, despite these countries comprising 10·0% of the global population. In 2018, the largest proportion of DAH targeted HIV/AIDS ($9·5 billion, 24·3% of total DAH), although spending on other infectious diseases (excluding tuberculosis and malaria) grew fastest from 2010 to 2018 (6·27% per year). The leading sources of DAH were the USA and private philanthropy (excluding corporate donations and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation). For the first time, we included estimates of China's contribution to DAH ($644·7 million in 2018). Globally, health spending is projected to increase to $15·0 trillion (14·0-16·0) by 2050 (reaching 9·4% [7·6-11·3] of the global economy and $21·3 trillion [19·8-23·1] in purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars), but at a lower growth rate of 1·84% (1·68-2·02) annually, and with continuing disparities in spending between countries. In 2050, we estimate that 0·6% (0·6-0·7) of health spending will occur in currently low-income countries, despite these countries comprising an estimated 15·7% of the global population by 2050. The ratio between per capita health spending in high-income and low-income countries was 130·2 (122·9-136·9) in 2016 and is projected to remain at similar levels in 2050 (125·9 [113·7-138·1]). The decomposition analysis identified governments' increased prioritisation of the health sector and economic development as the strongest factors associated with increases in government health spending globally. Future government health spending scenarios suggest that, with greater prioritisation of the health sector and increased government spending, health spending per capita could more than double, with greater impacts in countries that currently have the lowest levels of government health spending.

INTERPRETATION

Financing for global health has increased steadily over the past two decades and is projected to continue increasing in the future, although at a slower pace of growth and with persistent disparities in per-capita health spending between countries. Out-of-pocket spending is projected to remain substantial outside of high-income countries. Many low-income countries are expected to remain dependent on development assistance, although with greater government spending, larger investments in health are feasible. In the absence of sustained new investments in health, increasing efficiency in health spending is essential to meet global health targets.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of traumatic brain injury and spinal cord injury, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) and spinal cord injury (SCI) are increasingly recognised as global health priorities in view of the preventability of most injuries and the complex and expensive medical care they necessitate. We aimed to measure the incidence, prevalence, and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for TBI and SCI from all causes of injury in every country, to describe how these measures have changed between 1990 and 2016, and to estimate the proportion of TBI and SCI cases caused by different types of injury.

METHODS

We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016 to measure the global, regional, and national burden of TBI and SCI by age and sex. We measured the incidence and prevalence of all causes of injury requiring medical care in inpatient and outpatient records, literature studies, and survey data. By use of clinical record data, we estimated the proportion of each cause of injury that required medical care that would result in TBI or SCI being considered as the nature of injury. We used literature studies to establish standardised mortality ratios and applied differential equations to convert incidence to prevalence of long-term disability. Finally, we applied GBD disability weights to calculate YLDs. We used a Bayesian meta-regression tool for epidemiological modelling, used cause-specific mortality rates for non-fatal estimation, and adjusted our results for disability experienced with comorbid conditions. We also analysed results on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index, a compound measure of income per capita, education, and fertility.

FINDINGS

In 2016, there were 27·08 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24·30-30·30 million) new cases of TBI and 0·93 million (0·78-1·16 million) new cases of SCI, with age-standardised incidence rates of 369 (331-412) per 100 000 population for TBI and 13 (11-16) per 100 000 for SCI. In 2016, the number of prevalent cases of TBI was 55·50 million (53·40-57·62 million) and of SCI was 27·04 million (24·98-30·15 million). From 1990 to 2016, the age-standardised prevalence of TBI increased by 8·4% (95% UI 7·7 to 9·2), whereas that of SCI did not change significantly (-0·2% [-2·1 to 2·7]). Age-standardised incidence rates increased by 3·6% (1·8 to 5·5) for TBI, but did not change significantly for SCI (-3·6% [-7·4 to 4·0]). TBI caused 8·1 million (95% UI 6·0-10·4 million) YLDs and SCI caused 9·5 million (6·7-12·4 million) YLDs in 2016, corresponding to age-standardised rates of 111 (82-141) per 100 000 for TBI and 130 (90-170) per 100 000 for SCI. Falls and road injuries were the leading causes of new cases of TBI and SCI in most regions.

INTERPRETATION

TBI and SCI constitute a considerable portion of the global injury burden and are caused primarily by falls and road injuries. The increase in incidence of TBI over time might continue in view of increases in population density, population ageing, and increasing use of motor vehicles, motorcycles, and bicycles. The number of individuals living with SCI is expected to increase in view of population growth, which is concerning because of the specialised care that people with SCI can require. Our study was limited by data sparsity in some regions, and it will be important to invest greater resources in collection of data for TBI and SCI to improve the accuracy of future assessments.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally.

METHODS

The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950.

FINDINGS

Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development.

INTERPRETATION

This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017.

METHODS

The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries-Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised.

FINDINGS

At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5-74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9-19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7-8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5-23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20-8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0-8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0-24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1-33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5-4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2-15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9-59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8-148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2-40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2-36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990-neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases-were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases.

INTERPRETATION

Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment.

METHODS

We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator.

FINDINGS

The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4-67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6-14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1-86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030.

INTERPRETATION

The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains-curative interventions in the case of NCDs-towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions-or inaction-today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk-outcome associations.

METHODS

We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.

FINDINGS

In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3-35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14-1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6-62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3-50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39-11·5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83-7·37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23-8·23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99-6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36-1·51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3-6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low.

INTERPRETATION

By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data.

METHODS

We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting.

FINDINGS

Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]).

INTERPRETATION

Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods.

METHODS

We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories.

FINDINGS

From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4-52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5-4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10-19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34-40) to 22 livebirths (19-24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3-200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5-2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4-7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15-64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9-1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8-7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07-0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3-0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0-3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger.

INTERPRETATION

Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Measuring and Decomposing Socioeconomic Inequalities in Adult Obesity in Western Iran

Objectives

Obesity is a considerable and growing public health concern worldwide. The present study aimed to quantify socioeconomic inequalities in adult obesity in western Iran.

Methods

A total of 10 086 participants, aged 35-65 years, from the Ravansar Non-communicable Disease Cohort Study (2014-2016) were included in the study to examine socioeconomic inequalities in obesity. We defined obesity as a body mass index ≥30 kg/m². The concentration index and concentration curve were used to illustrate and measure wealth-related inequality in obesity. Additionally, we decomposed the concentration index to identify factors that explained wealth-related inequality in obesity.

Results

Overall, the prevalence of obesity in the total sample was 26.7%. The concentration index of obesity was 0.04; indicating that obesity was more concentrated among the rich (p<0.001). Decomposition analysis indicated that wealth, place of residence, and marital status were the main contributors to the observed inequality in obesity.

Conclusions

Socioeconomic-related inequalities in obesity among adults warrant more attention. Policies should be designed to reduce both the prevalence of obesity and inequalities in obesity by focusing on those with higher socioeconomic status, urban residents, and married individuals.

Trends in future health financing and coverage: future health spending and universal health coverage in 188 countries, 2016-40

BACKGROUND

Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) requires health financing systems that provide prepaid pooled resources for key health services without placing undue financial stress on households. Understanding current and future trajectories of health financing is vital for progress towards UHC. We used historical health financing data for 188 countries from 1995 to 2015 to estimate future scenarios of health spending and pooled health spending through to 2040.

METHODS

We extracted historical data on gross domestic product (GDP) and health spending for 188 countries from 1995 to 2015, and projected annual GDP, development assistance for health, and government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending from 2015 through to 2040 as a reference scenario. These estimates were generated using an ensemble of models that varied key demographic and socioeconomic determinants. We generated better and worse alternative future scenarios based on the global distribution of historic health spending growth rates. Last, we used stochastic frontier analysis to investigate the association between pooled health resources and UHC index, a measure of a country's UHC service coverage. Finally, we estimated future UHC performance and the number of people covered under the three future scenarios.

FINDINGS

In the reference scenario, global health spending was projected to increase from US$10 trillion (95% uncertainty interval 10 trillion to 10 trillion) in 2015 to $20 trillion (18 trillion to 22 trillion) in 2040. Per capita health spending was projected to increase fastest in upper-middle-income countries, at 4·2% (3·4-5·1) per year, followed by lower-middle-income countries (4·0%, 3·6-4·5) and low-income countries (2·2%, 1·7-2·8). Despite global growth, per capita health spending was projected to range from only $40 (24-65) to $413 (263-668) in 2040 in low-income countries, and from $140 (90-200) to $1699 (711-3423) in lower-middle-income countries. Globally, the share of health spending covered by pooled resources would range widely, from 19·8% (10·3-38·6) in Nigeria to 97·9% (96·4-98·5) in Seychelles. Historical performance on the UHC index was significantly associated with pooled resources per capita. Across the alternative scenarios, we estimate UHC reaching between 5·1 billion (4·9 billion to 5·3 billion) and 5·6 billion (5·3 billion to 5·8 billion) lives in 2030.

INTERPRETATION

We chart future scenarios for health spending and its relationship with UHC. Ensuring that all countries have sustainable pooled health resources is crucial to the achievement of UHC.

FUNDING

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Estimating the Economic Burden of Lung Cancer in Iran

Objectives: Lung cancer is a major public health problem and one of the most costly illnesses. The study aimed to estimate the economic burden of lung cancer in Iran in 2014. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted to estimate the direct and indirect costs for patients with lung cancer using a prevalence-based approach. A human capital approach was employed to estimate the indirect costs. Data were obtained from several sources such as through patient interview using structured questionnaire, medical records, the GLOBOCAN databases, the Iranian Statistical Center, the Iranian Ministry of Cooperation, Labor and Social Welfare, and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). Results: The economic burden of lung cancer in Iran in the year 2014 was 3,225,998,555,090 IR. The main components of the cost were associated with mortality (81.9 %) and hospitalization (7.6 %). The costs of direct medical care, non-medical aspects, patient time, and mortality accounted for 10.8%, 2.7%, 4.5%, and 81.5% of the total cost, respectively. Conclusion: Findings from this study indicated that the economic burden of lung cancer is substantial both to Iran’s health system and to society as a whole. Early diagnosis, strengthening cancer prevention, implementing new cancer therapy and medical technology, and effective smoking-cessation interventions could offset some of the costs associated with lung cancer in Iran.