Progress towards elimination of viral hepatitis: a Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology Commission update

The top 20 highest burdened countries (in disability-adjusted life years) account for more than 75% of the global burden of viral hepatitis. An effective response in these 20 countries is crucial if global elimination targets are to be achieved. In this update of the Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology Commission on accelerating the elimination of viral hepatitis, we convene national experts from each of the top 20 highest burdened countries to provide an update on progress. Although the global burden of diseases is falling, progress towards elimination varies greatly by country. By use of a hepatitis elimination policy index conceived as part of the 2019 Commission, we measure countries' progress towards elimination. Progress in elimination policy has been made in 14 of 20 countries with the highest burden since 2018, with the most substantial gains observed in Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Japan, and Russia. Most improvements are attributable to the publication of formalised national action plans for the elimination of viral hepatitis, provision of publicly funded screening programmes, and government subsidisation of antiviral treatments. Key themes that emerged from discussion between national commissioners from the highest burdened countries build on the original recommendations to accelerate the global elimination of viral hepatitis. These themes include the need for simplified models of care, improved access to appropriate diagnostics, financing initiatives, and rapid implementation of lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Strategies for Removal of Barriers to Hepatitis C Elimination in Sub-Saharan Africa

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a major global health threat, with serious consequences including liver cirrhosis and cancer. Despite efforts to combat HCV, an estimated 1.5 million new infections occur each year and HCV was the sixth leading cause of death in 2017. Nevertheless, political leaders are increasingly interested in the fight against HCV, and the achievements of countries such as Rwanda, Egypt, India, Mongolia, Pakistan, Georgia, and Ukraine have given hope that the elimination plan to reduce new infections to 90% and mortality to 65% by 2030 is possible. It is true that some African countries can attest to the difficulty of operationalizing the HCV program with expensive testing platforms and HCV drugs that few could afford in the past, let alone the logistics involved, given that active case detection is an asset for HCV elimination. The inability to add direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) to the national essential drug list and negotiate DAA cost subsidies remains a major challenge in Africa. The lessons learned from implementing and scaling up the human immunodeficiency virus program can provide a strong framework to deliver comprehensive HCV services. We present the strategies used by some African countries to move toward HCV elimination, describe the challenges they have faced, and suggest realistic solutions.

Pathway to global elimination of hepatitis B: HBV cure is just the first step

Hepatitis B (HBV) is a major cause of global morbidity and mortality, and the leading cause of liver cancer worldwide. Significant advances have recently been made toward the development of a finite HBV treatment that achieves permanent loss of HBsAg and HBV DNA (so-called "HBV cure"), which could provide the means to eliminate HBV as a public health threat. However, the HBV cure is just one step toward achieving WHO HBV elimination targets by 2030, and much work must be done now to prepare for the successful implementation of the HBV cure. In this review, we describe the required steps to rapidly scale-up future HBV cure equitably. We present key actions required for successful HBV cure implementation, integrated within the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Health Sector Strategy (GHSS) 2022-2030 framework. Finally, we highlight what can be done now to progress toward the 2030 HBV elimination targets using available tools to ensure that we are preparing, but not waiting, for the cure.

Abstract 6013: DNA methylation-based inflammation score is associated with hepatocellular carcinoma among people living with HIV

Background: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the second leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. In countries with high human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence, such as Nigeria, HIV-associated HCC causes a great health burden due to its early onset, late diagnosis, and poorer prognosis. HIV infection is involved in inflammation of the liver, which may determine an increased risk of hepatocyte neoplastic transformation. Inflammation-related DNA methylation signatures obtained in liquid biopsy, such as circulating cell-free DNA (ccfDNA) extracted from serum/plasma are promising minimally-invasive biomarkers that may inform HCC among people living with HIV.

Methods: A total of 289 Nigerian participants with information on ccfDNA and other covariates were included. Participants were classified into three groups by their HCC/HIV status: 1) HCC+/HIV+ (n=28); 2) HCC-/HIV+ (n=185); and 3) HCC+/HIV- (n=76). We constructed ccfDNA methylation inflammation scores using 49 CpGs previously linked to circulating C-reactive protein (CRP) concentrations, and higher scores represented elevated CRP concentrations with lower methylation levels. To compare the ccfDNA methylation inflammation score across the groups, we performed multivariable logistic regression analyses adjusting for age, sex, alcohol consumption, smoking status, body mass index, study sites, and technical variables.

Results: Participants with HCC+/HIV+ presented the highest ccfDNA methylation inflammation scores (mean=-0.03, standard deviation [SD] =0.01). Participants with HCC-/HIV+ presented the lowest scores (mean=-0.05, SD=0.01). In the multivariable logistic regressions, one SD increase of inflammation score was associated with 2.5 times higher odds of having HCC among HIV-infected participants (HCC+/HIV+ vs. HCC+/HIV-; OR=2.56, 95% CI=1.39-4.73, P=0.002). No evidence was found for the association between the inflammation score and HIV status among HCC patients (HCC+/HIV+ vs. HCC+/HIV-; OR=1.00, 95% CI=0.59-1.70, P=0.991). In the secondary analysis comparing HCC+ vs. HCC- adjusting for HIV status, one SD increase of inflammation score was associated with 3.2 times higher odds of having HCC (OR=3.22, 95% CI=1.39-7.46, P=0.006).

Conclusions: We observed that ccfDNA methylation inflammation score is associated with HCC status among people with HIV. Our findings suggest that ccfDNA methylation-based inflammatory profiles may serve as a potential biomarker for early detection and risk stratification of HCC in resource-constrained countries with a high prevalence of HIV.

Citation Format: Kyeezu Kim, Yinan Zheng, Claudia Hawkins, Edith Okeke, Olufunmilayo Lesi, Yishu Qu, Lewis R. Roberts, Demirkan Gursel, Fatimah B. Abdulkareem, Alani Akanmu, Godwin Imade, Jian-Jun Wei, Masha Kocherginsky, Kwang-Youn Kim, Wasiu L. Adeyemo, Firas Wehbe, Chad J. Achenbach, Atiene Sagay, Folasade T. Ogunsola, Robert L. Murphy, Lifang Hou. DNA methylation-based inflammation score is associated with hepatocellular carcinoma among people living with HIV. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2023; Part 1 (Regular and Invited Abstracts); 2023 Apr 14-19; Orlando, FL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2023;83(7_Suppl):Abstract nr 6013.

Application of the research electronic data capture (REDCap) system in a low- and middle income country- experiences, lessons, and challenges

The challenges of reliably collecting, storing, organizing, and analyzing research data are critical in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa where several healthcare and biomedical research organizations have limited data infrastructure. The Research Electronic Data Capture (REDCap) System has been widely used by many institutions and hospitals in the USA for data collection, entry, and management and could help solve this problem. This study reports on the experiences, challenges, and lessons learned from establishing and applying REDCap for a large US-Nigeria research partnership that includes two sites in Nigeria, (the College of Medicine of the University of Lagos (CMUL) and Jos University Teaching Hospital (JUTH)) and Northwestern University (NU) in Chicago, Illinois in the United States. The largest challenges to this implementation were significant technical obstacles: the lack of REDCap-trained personnel, transient electrical power supply, and slow/intermittent internet connectivity. However, asynchronous communication and on-site hands-on collaboration between the Nigerian sites and NU led to the successful installation and configuration of REDCap to meet the needs of the Nigerian sites. An example of one lesson learned is the use of Virtual Private Network (VPN) as a solution to poor internet connectivity at one of the sites, and its adoption is underway at the other. Virtual Private Servers (VPS) or shared online hosting were also evaluated and offer alternative solutions. Installing and using REDCap in LMIC institutions for research data management is feasible; however, planning for trained personnel and addressing electrical and internet infrastructural requirements are essential to optimize its use. Building this fundamental research capacity within LMICs across Africa could substantially enhance the potential for more cross-institutional and cross-country collaboration in future research endeavors.

1069 Diverticular Disease: An Audit of Adherence to NICE Guidelines

Introduction

Diverticular disease is a common surgical problem ranging from diverticulosis to uncomplicated diverticulitis to complicated diverticulitis. The NICE Guidelines for diverticular disease recommended that antibiotics should only be given in patients who are systemically unwell, background of immunosuppression or have complicated diverticulitis. We aimed to access the compliance to these guidelines with regards to the use of antibiotics at our local institute.

Method

This was a retrospective audit reviewing the management of patients with Computed Tomography Scan findings of uncomplicated acute diverticulitis (Hinchey Ia) at the surgical emergency unit at Basildon University Hospital between August 2018 and May 2020. Data obtained included demographic data, presenting symptoms (fever, abdominal pain), haematological investigations (full blood count and c-reactive protein) and use of intravenous/oral antibiotics.

Results

Twenty patients were included, the M:F ratio was 1:1.9, the age range was between 36-80 years. 13 patients (65%) had left iliac fossa pain as part of their presenting symptom while only three (15%) had pyrexia. Seventeen patients(85%) had NEWS score between 0-1 with 60% of the patients presenting with elevated white blood cell count and 75% with c-reactive protein >5. All our patients were prescribed antibiotics.

Conclusions

There was no discrimination in the use of antibiotics/admission for uncomplicated diverticulitis as all patients had antibiotics and as such there is need for increased awareness about the guidelines among the surgical team and adherence to the protocol to prevent indiscriminate use of antibiotics.

Abstract 83: Blood-Based Circulating Cell-Free DNA Epigenetic Age Is Accelerated Among HIV-Infected Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Nigeria

Purpose: Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) is the leading cause of cancer-related mortality in Nigeria. HIV and viral hepatitis B (HBV) and C (HCV) co-infection are common in Nigeria that significantly accelerates liver disease progression including HCC. Aging-related DNA methylation signatures obtained in liquid biopsy, such as circulating cell-free DNA (ccfDNA) extracted from serum/plasma are promising minimally-invasive biomarkers that may inform HIV-associated HCC. We examined the epigenetic age acceleration (EpiAgeAccel) in ccfDNA in HCC patients with HIV.

Methods: The study included three groups of participants: a) HIV positive with HCC (n=7); b) HIV positive and cancer-free (n=45); and c) HIV negative with HCC (n=33). Epigenetic age was estimated by Horvath's calculator using genome-wide ccfDNA methylation data profiled by Illumina EPIC array. EpiAgeAccel was computed as the residuals of a linear model of epigenetic age on chronological age, namely the unexplained portion of epigenetic age by chronological age. We used multiple linear regression to compare EpiAgeAccel between HIV/HCC groups, adjusting for sex, age, education, alcohol intake, and HBV/HCV infection.

Results: Among HIV positive participants, there was a higher percentage of men (57% vs. 22%, p<0.001), HBV infection (29% vs. 11%, p=0.004), and HCV infection (57% vs. 2%, p<0.001) in the HCC group compared to the cancer-free group. EpiAgeAccel was 4.8 years higher in HIV positive patients with HCC compared to cancer-free HIV positives (p=0.02). Among HCC patients, EpiAgeAccel was 2.1 years higher in HIV positives compared to HIV negative but not statistically significant.

Conclusion: Epigenetic age in ccfDNA is accelerated in HIV-positive HCC patients. EpiAgeAccel measured in ccfDNA may be developed into a surrogate biomarker for minimally invasive HCC detection among HIV-infected patients in low- and middle-income countries.

Citation Format: Yinan Zheng, Claudia Hawkins, Edith Okeke, Mary Duguru, Emuobor Odeghe, Olufunmilayo Lesi, Yishu Qu, Kyeezu Kim, Brian Joyce, Jun Wang, Lewis Roberts, Demirkan Gursel, Abdulkareem Fatimah, Alani Akanmu, Godwin Imade, Jian-Jun Wei, Masha Kocherginsky, Kwang-Youn Kim, Oluwakemi Odukoya, Wasiu Adeyemo, Firas Wehbe, Chad Achenbach, Atiene Sagay, Folasade Ogunsola, Robert Murphy, Lifang Hou. Blood-Based Circulating Cell-Free DNA Epigenetic Age Is Accelerated Among HIV-Infected Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Nigeria [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 9th Annual Symposium on Global Cancer Research; Global Cancer Research and Control: Looking Back and Charting a Path Forward; 2021 Mar 10-11. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2021;30(7 Suppl):Abstract nr 83.

Eliminating mother-to-child transmission of human immunodeficiency virus, syphilis and hepatitis B in sub-Saharan Africa

Triple elimination is an initiative supporting the elimination of mother-to-child transmission of three diseases – human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, syphilis and hepatitis B. Significant progress towards triple elimination has been made in some regions, but progress has been slow in sub-Saharan Africa, the region with the highest burden of these diseases. The shared features of the three diseases, including their epidemiology, disease interactions and core interventions for tackling them, enable an integrated health-systems approach for elimination of mother-to-child transmission. Current barriers to triple elimination in sub-Saharan Africa include a lack of policies, strategies and resources to support the uptake of well established preventive and treatment interventions. While much can be achieved with existing tools, the development of new products and models of care, as well as a prioritized research agenda, are needed to accelerate progress on triple elimination in sub-Saharan Africa. In this paper we aim to show that health systems working together with communities in sub-Saharan Africa could deliver rapid and sustainable results towards the elimination of mother-to-child transmission of all three diseases. However, stronger political support, expansion of evidence-based interventions and better use of funding streams are needed to improve efficiency and build on the successes in prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV. Triple elimination is a strategic opportunity to reduce the morbidity and mortality from HIV infection, syphilis and hepatitis B for mothers and their infants within the context of universal health coverage.

Global hepatitis C elimination: an investment framework

WHO has set global targets for the elimination of hepatitis B and hepatitis C as a public health threat by 2030. However, investment in elimination programmes remains low. To help drive political commitment and catalyse domestic and international financing, we have developed a global investment framework for the elimination of hepatitis B and hepatitis C. The global investment framework presented in this Health Policy paper outlines national and international activities that will enable reductions in hepatitis C incidence and mortality, and identifies potential sources of funding and tools to help countries build the economic case for investing in national elimination activities. The goal of this framework is to provide a way for countries, particularly those with minimal resources, to gain the substantial economic benefit and cost savings that come from investing in hepatitis C elimination.

Use of controlled temperature chain and compact prefilled auto-disable devices to reach 2030 hepatitis B birth dose vaccination targets in LMICs: a modelling and cost-optimisation study

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis B causes more than 800 000 deaths globally each year. Perinatal infections are a major driver of this burden but can be prevented by vaccination within 24 h of birth. Currently, only 44% of newborn babies in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) receive a timely birth dose. We investigated the effects and cost-effectiveness of implementing ambient storage of hepatitis B vaccines under a controlled temperature chain (CTC) protocol and the use of compact prefilled auto-disable (CPAD) devices for community births.

METHODS

In this mathematical modelling study of perinatal hepatitis B transmission and disease progression, we estimated the coverage impact and cost-effectiveness of implementing CTC and CPAD interventions in the six Global Burden of Disease (GBD) regions containing LMICs. Combinations of four different scenarios of birth dose delivery strategies (cold chain, CTC) and interventions (needle and syringe, CPAD) were modelled across facility or community birth locations. We also estimated the minimum cost and most cost-effective strategy to achieve the WHO 90% hepatitis B birth dose coverage target in GBD regions and in 46 LMICs with a reported coverage of less than 90%.

FINDINGS

Current delivery protocols achieved a maximum coverage of 65% (IQR 64-65) across GBD regions. Reaching 90% hepatitis B birth dose coverage across all GBD regions was estimated to cost a minimum of US$687·5 million per annum ($494·0 million more than the estimated current expenditure), of which $516·5 million (75%) was required for CTC and CPAD interventions. Reaching 90% coverage in this way was estimated to be cost saving in five of the six regions (and in 40 of 46 LMICs individually assessed) due to the disease costs averted, with the cost per disability-adjusted life-years averted being less than $83·27 otherwise.

INTERPRETATION

Hepatitis B birth dose coverage of 90% is unlikely to be reached under current protocols. CTC and CPAD vaccine strategies present cost-effective solutions to overcome coverage barriers.

FUNDING

The Burnet Institute.

Duodenal ulcer promoting gene (DupA), plasticity region genes and sigma factors in H. pyloristrains from Nigeria

INTRODUCTION

Helicobacter pylori is a principal cause of gastric cancer. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence and contribution of duodenal ulcer promoting gene A (dupA), the plasticity region genes and sigma factors in relation to their pathological expression of H. pylori infections in the Nigerian population.

METHODOLOGY

Polymerase Chain Reaction was used to analyze a total of forty-nine H. pylori strains isolated from patients attending various endoscopic units in tertiary hospitals in Nigeria for complete dupA (G27 variant), jhp0917, jhp0918, other plasticity region genes jhp 914/917, jhp0914, jhp0940 and sigma factors.

RESULTS

PCR results indicated that the prevalence of complete dupA (G27 variants), jhp0917, jhp0918 and other plasticity region genes jhp0914, jhp0914/0917 and jhp0940 in the H. pylori strains were 4%, 53%, 88%, 73%, 12% and 0% respectively. The prevalence values of the sigma factors were 96%, 92%, 80% for rpoN,  fliA and rpoD respectively. However, the endoscopic findings showed that erosion, normal mucosal, ulcer, hyperaemic stomach, mucosal atrophy and oedematous stomach in the patients where the H. pylori strains were isolated were 40.8%, 32.7%, 10.2%, 8.2%, 2.0% and 6.1% respectively. There was significant association between jhp0917, jhp914/917 and G27 variant and the endoscopic findings, while other plasticity genes showed no association with the endoscopic findings.

CONCLUSION

These results suggest that the presence of jhp0917, jhp0914/917 and G27 variant could be used as marker to predict the pathological effect of severity in Nigeria patients with H. pylori infection.

Innovative strategies for the elimination of viral hepatitis at a national level: A country case series

Viral hepatitis is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, but has long been neglected by national and international policymakers. Recent modelling studies suggest that investing in the global elimination of viral hepatitis is feasible and cost-effective. In 2016, all 194 member states of the World Health Organization endorsed the goal to eliminate viral hepatitis as a public health threat by 2030, but complex systemic and social realities hamper implementation efforts. This paper presents eight case studies from a diverse range of countries that have invested in responses to viral hepatitis and adopted innovative approaches to tackle their respective epidemics. Based on an investment framework developed to build a global investment case for the elimination of viral hepatitis by 2030, national activities and key enablers are highlighted that showcase the feasibility and impact of concerted hepatitis responses across a range of settings, with different levels of available resources and infrastructural development. These case studies demonstrate the utility of taking a multipronged, public health approach to: (a) evidence-gathering and planning; (b) implementation; and (c) integration of viral hepatitis services into the Agenda for Sustainable Development. They provide models for planning, investment and implementation strategies for other countries facing similar challenges and resource constraints.

Prevalence of Helicobacter pylori infection among dyspeptic patients with and without type 2 diabetes mellitus in Nigeria

BACKGROUND

This multicenter study was undertaken to determine the prevalence of Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection among dyspeptic patients with and without type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

METHODS

Patients with dyspepsia were recruited from tertiary teaching hospitals, three in the South-West and one in the South-South regions of Nigeria, between November 2016 and August 2017. The participants had breath samples analyzed for H. pylori by the Urea Breath Test (UBT) following manufacturer's instructions. Dyspeptic patients who were diagnosed previously with T2DM were recorded. Crosstab using chi-square and correlation analyses were used to test (hypothesis) variables.

RESULTS

The entire cohort included 471 dyspeptics, 19 (4%) of whom had T2DM. H. pylori infection was reported in 232/471 (49.3%) dyspeptics and 13/19 T2DM patients, without significant difference between diabetics and nondiabetics. The majority (84.6%) of those positive for UBT and T2DM were in the age group 52-71 years, while none was in the age group 72-91 years. There was no statistical significance (P>0.05) between the age group, UBT and T2DM positive.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study showed that, in Nigeria, there is no difference in prevalence of H. pylori in dyspeptic patients with and without T2DM.

Hepatitis B in sub-Saharan Africa: strategies to achieve the 2030 elimination targets

The WHO global health sector strategy on viral hepatitis, created in May, 2016, aims to achieve a 90% reduction in new cases of chronic hepatitis B and C and a 65% reduction in mortality due to hepatitis B and C by 2030. Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is endemic in sub-Saharan Africa, and despite the introduction of universal hepatitis B vaccination and effective antiviral therapy, the estimated overall seroprevalence of hepatitis B surface antigen remains high at 6·1% (95% uncertainty interval 4·6-8·5). In this Series paper, we have reviewed the literature to examine the epidemiology, burden of liver disease, and elimination strategies of hepatitis B in sub-Saharan Africa. This paper reflects a supranational perspective of sub-Saharan Africa, and recommends several priority elimination strategies that address the need both to prevent new infections and to diagnose and treat chronic infections. The key to achieving these elimination goals in sub-Saharan Africa is the effective prevention of new infections via universal implementation of the HBV birth-dose vaccine, full vaccine coverage, access to affordable diagnostics to identify HBV-infected individuals, and to enable linkage to care and antiviral therapy.

Clinical and Socio- Demographic Risk Factors for Acquisition of Helicobacter pylori Infection in Nigeria

Background: The aim of the study was to assess clinical and socio-demographic characteristics as well as prior drug usage as risk factors for Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection in Nigeria. Methods: A total of 347 respondents were surveyed by assessing their clinical and socio-demographic characteristics in comparison with the non-invasive gold standard for H. pylori diagnosis, the urea breath test (UBT). Chi-square test and odds ratio analyses were conducted in order to assess if variables such as socio-demographic factors, drug intake, and history of ulcer/gastritis/ gastric cancer within the family significantly predicted test results. Results: A total of 130 (37.5%) respondents were positive for H. pylori by the UBT. Living with more than three people in an apartment and a history of ulcer/gastritis within the family were significantly associated with H. pylori (p ≤0.05), as well as current antibiotic intake (p ≤0.05). Nationality, stay outside Nigeria, level of education, main occupation, smoking and drinking habits, sources of drinking water, number of children and history of gastric cancer had no significant association with H. pylori infection (p ≥ 0.05). Conclusion: The results of the questionnaire revealed that most socio-demographic characteristics of the respondents had no significant association with H. pylori. Overcrowding, having siblings/parents with history of ulcer/gastritis as well as prior antibiotic usage had a significant association.

Report from the International Viral Hepatitis Elimination Meeting (IVHEM), 17-18 November 2017, Amsterdam, the Netherlands: gaps and challenges in the WHO 2030 hepatitis C elimination framework

The current global burden of hepatitis C (HCV) is estimated at 71 million people. The World Health Organization (WHO) has stated that HCV could be eliminated as a public health threat by 2030. A key recommendation to reach this elimination goal is to reduce new infections by 90% and liver-related mortality by 65%. Countries are encouraged by the WHO to develop their own national elimination programmes in order to reach these goals. However, various gaps and challenges, such as the lack of high-quality epidemiological data, stigmatisation, and optimisation of the cascade of care, have arisen in the WHO strategic framework. The International Viral Hepatitis Elimination Meeting (IVHEM) has therefore established an expert panel made of clinicians, virologists, and public health specialists to discuss and address these challenges. This review highlights the outcome and proposed solutions to attempt at facilitating HCV elimination.

Historical epidemiology of hepatitis C virus in select countries-volume 4

Due to the introduction of newer, more efficacious treatment options, there is a pressing need for policy makers and public health officials to develop or adapt national hepatitis C virus (HCV) control strategies to the changing epidemiological landscape. To do so, detailed, country-specific data are needed to characterize the burden of chronic HCV infection. In this study of 17 countries, a literature review of published and unpublished data on HCV prevalence, viraemia, genotype, age and gender distribution, liver transplants and diagnosis and treatment rates was conducted, and inputs were validated by expert consensus in each country. Viraemic prevalence in this study ranged from 0.2% in Hong Kong to 2.4% in Taiwan, while the largest viraemic populations were in Nigeria (2 597 000 cases) and Taiwan (569 000 cases). Diagnosis, treatment and liver transplant rates varied widely across the countries included in this analysis, as did the availability of reliable data. Addressing data gaps will be critical for the development of future strategies to manage and minimize the disease burden of hepatitis C.

The present and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus infections with today's treatment paradigm: Volume 4

Factors influencing the morbidity and mortality associated with viremic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection change over time and place, making it difficult to compare reported estimates. Models were developed for 17 countries (Bahrain, Bulgaria, Cameroon, Colombia, Croatia, Dominican Republic, Ethiopia, Ghana, Hong Kong, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Morocco, Nigeria, Qatar and Taiwan) to quantify and characterize the viremic population as well as forecast the changes in the infected population and the corresponding disease burden from 2015 to 2030. Model inputs were agreed upon through expert consensus, and a standardized methodology was followed to allow for comparison across countries. The viremic prevalence is expected to remain constant or decline in all but four countries (Ethiopia, Ghana, Jordan and Oman); however, HCV-related morbidity and mortality will increase in all countries except Qatar and Taiwan. In Qatar, the high-treatment rate will contribute to a reduction in total cases and HCV-related morbidity by 2030. In the remaining countries, however, the current treatment paradigm will be insufficient to achieve large reductions in HCV-related morbidity and mortality.

Strategies to manage hepatitis C virus infection disease burden-Volume 4

The hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemic was forecasted through 2030 for 17 countries in Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America and the Middle East, and interventions for achieving the Global Health Sector Strategy on viral hepatitis targets-"WHO Targets" (65% reduction in HCV-related deaths, 90% reduction in new infections and 90% of infections diagnosed by 2030) were considered. Scaling up treatment and diagnosis rates over time would be required to achieve these targets in all but one country, even with the introduction of high SVR therapies. The scenarios developed to achieve the WHO Targets in all countries studied assumed the implementation of national policies to prevent new infections and to diagnose current infections through screening.

Antiretroviral therapy for pregnant women living with HIV or hepatitis B: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To assess the impact of various antiretroviral/antiviral regimens in pregnant women living with HIV or hepatitis B virus (HBV).

DESIGN

We performed random effects meta-analysis for HIV-related outcomes and network meta-analysis for HBV outcomes, and used the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) framework to assess quality separately for each outcome.

DATA SOURCES

Embase and Medline to February 2017.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

For maternal outcomes, we considered randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing tenofovir-based regimens with those with alternative nucleoside/nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs). For child outcomes, we included RCTs and comparative observational studies of tenofovir-based regimens versus alternative NRTIs regimens or, for HBV, placebo.

RESULTS

Ten studies (seven RCTs) met the inclusion criteria for maternal and child outcomes, and an additional 33 studies (12 RCTs) met the inclusion criteria for HBV-specific outcomes. The most common comparison was tenofovir and emtricitabine versus zidovudine and lamivudine. There was no apparent difference between tenofovir-based regimens and alternatives in maternal outcomes, including serious laboratory adverse events (low certainty) and serious clinical adverse events (moderate certainty). There was no difference between NRTIs in vertical transmission of HIV: 1 more per 1000, 8 fewer to 10 more, low certainty; or vertical transmission of HBV: 7 fewer per 1000, 10 fewer to 38 more, moderate certainty. We found moderate certainty evidence that tenofovir/emtricitabine increases the risk of stillbirths and early neonatal mortality (51 more per 1000, 11 more to 150 more) and the risk of early premature delivery at <34 weeks (42 more per 1000, 2 more to 127 more).

CONCLUSIONS

Tenofovir/emtricitabine is likely to increase stillbirth/early neonatal death and early premature delivery compared with zidovudine/lamivudine, but certainty is low when they are not coprescribed with lopinavir/ritonavir. Other outcomes are likely similar between antiretrovirals.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

PROSPERO CRD42017054392.

Global prevalence and genotype distribution of hepatitis C virus infection in 2015: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

The 69th World Health Assembly approved the Global Health Sector Strategy to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection by 2030, which can become a reality with the recent launch of direct acting antiviral therapies. Reliable disease burden estimates are required for national strategies. This analysis estimates the global prevalence of viraemic HCV at the end of 2015, an update of-and expansion on-the 2014 analysis, which reported 80 million (95% CI 64-103) viraemic infections in 2013.

METHODS

We developed country-level disease burden models following a systematic review of HCV prevalence (number of studies, n=6754) and genotype (n=11 342) studies published after 2013. A Delphi process was used to gain country expert consensus and validate inputs. Published estimates alone were used for countries where expert panel meetings could not be scheduled. Global prevalence was estimated using regional averages for countries without data.

FINDINGS

Models were built for 100 countries, 59 of which were approved by country experts, with the remaining 41 estimated using published data alone. The remaining countries had insufficient data to create a model. The global prevalence of viraemic HCV is estimated to be 1·0% (95% uncertainty interval 0·8-1·1) in 2015, corresponding to 71·1 million (62·5-79·4) viraemic infections. Genotypes 1 and 3 were the most common cause of infections (44% and 25%, respectively).

INTERPRETATION

The global estimate of viraemic infections is lower than previous estimates, largely due to more recent (lower) prevalence estimates in Africa. Additionally, increased mortality due to liver-related causes and an ageing population may have contributed to a reduction in infections.

FUNDING

John C Martin Foundation.