Assessing the generalisability of the psychosis metabolic risk calculator (PsyMetRiC) for young people with first-episode psychosis with validation in a Hong Kong Chinese Han population: a 4-year follow-up study

Background

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is common following first-episode psychosis (FEP), contributing to substantial morbidity and mortality. The Psychosis Metabolic Risk Calculator (PsyMetRiC), a risk prediction algorithm for MetS following a FEP diagnosis, was developed in the United Kingdom and has been validated in other European populations. However, the predictive accuracy of PsyMetRiC in Chinese populations is unknown.

Methods

FEP patients aged 15-35 y, first presented to the Early Assessment Service for Young People with Early Psychosis (EASY) Programme in Hong Kong (HK) between 2012 and 2021 were included. A binary MetS outcome was determined based on the latest available follow-up clinical information between 1 and 12 years after baseline assessment. The PsyMetRiC Full and Partial algorithms were assessed for discrimination, calibration and clinical utility in the HK sample, and logistic calibration was conducted to account for population differences. Sensitivity analysis was performed in patients aged >35 years and using Chinese MetS criteria.

Findings

The main analysis included 416 FEP patients (mean age = 23.8 y, male sex = 40.4%, 22.4% MetS prevalence at follow-up). PsyMetRiC showed adequate discriminative performance (full-model C = 0.76, 95% C.I. = 0.69-0.81; partial-model: C = 0.73, 95% C.I. = 0.65-0.8). Systematic risk underestimation in both models was corrected using logistic calibration to refine PsyMetRiC for HK Chinese FEP population (PsyMetRiC-HK). PsyMetRiC-HK provided a greater net benefit than competing strategies. Results remained robust with a Chinese MetS definition, but worse for the older age group.

Interpretation

With good predictive performance for incident MetS, PsyMetRiC-HK presents a step forward for personalized preventative strategies of cardiometabolic morbidity and mortality in young Hong Kong Chinese FEP patients.

Funding

This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

Role of Inflammation in Short Sleep Duration Across Childhood and Psychosis in Young Adulthood

Importance

Short sleep duration over a prolonged period in childhood could have a detrimental impact on long-term mental health, including the development of psychosis. Further, potential underlying mechanisms of these associations remain unknown.

Objective

To examine the association between persistent shorter nighttime sleep duration throughout childhood with psychotic experiences (PEs) and/or psychotic disorder (PD) at age 24 years and whether inflammatory markers (C-reactive protein [CRP] and interleukin 6 [IL-6]) potentially mediate any association.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study used data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. Data analysis was conducted from January 30 to August 1, 2023.

Exposures

Nighttime sleep duration was collected at 6, 18, and 30 months and at 3.5, 4 to 5, 5 to 6, and 6 to 7 years.

Main Outcomes and Measures

PEs and PD were assessed at age 24 years from the Psychosislike Symptoms Interview. CRP level at ages 9 and 15 years and IL-6 level at 9 years were used as mediators. Latent class growth analyses (LCGAs) were applied to detect trajectories of nighttime sleep duration, and logistic regressions were applied for the longitudinal associations between trajectories of nighttime sleep duration and psychotic outcomes at 24 years. Path analyses were applied to test CRP and IL-6 as potential mediators.

Results

Data were available on 12 394 children (6254 female [50.5%]) for the LCGA and on 3962 young adults (2429 female [61.3%]) for the logistic regression and path analyses. The LCGA identified a group of individuals with persistent shorter nighttime sleep duration across childhood. These individuals were more likely to develop PD (odds ratio [OR], 2.50; 95% CI, 1.51-4.15; P < .001) and PEs (OR, 3.64; 95% CI, 2.23-5.95; P < .001) at age 24 years. Increased levels of IL-6 at 9 years, but not CRP at 9 or 15 years, partially mediated the associations between persistent shorter sleep duration and PD (bias-corrected estimate = 0.003; 95% CI, 0.002-0.005; P = .007) and PEs (bias-corrected estimate = 0.002; 95% CI, 0-0.003; P = .03) in young adulthood.

Conclusions and Relevance

Findings of this cohort study highlight the necessity of addressing short sleep duration in children, as persistence of this sleep problem was associated with subsequent psychosis. This study also provides preliminary evidence for future targeted interventions in children addressing both sleep and inflammatory responses.

Accelerating Medicines Partnership® Schizophrenia (AMP® SCZ): Rationale and Study Design of the Largest Global Prospective Cohort Study of Clinical High Risk for Psychosis

This article describes the rationale, aims, and methodology of the Accelerating Medicines Partnership® Schizophrenia (AMP® SCZ). This is the largest international collaboration to date that will develop algorithms to predict trajectories and outcomes of individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis and to advance the development and use of novel pharmacological interventions for CHR individuals. We present a description of the participating research networks and the data processing analysis and coordination center, their processes for data harmonization across 43 sites from 13 participating countries (recruitment across North America, Australia, Europe, Asia, and South America), data flow and quality assessment processes, data analyses, and the transfer of data to the National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH) Data Archive (NDA) for use by the research community. In an expected sample of approximately 2000 CHR individuals and 640 matched healthy controls, AMP SCZ will collect clinical, environmental, and cognitive data along with multimodal biomarkers, including neuroimaging, electrophysiology, fluid biospecimens, speech and facial expression samples, novel measures derived from digital health technologies including smartphone-based daily surveys, and passive sensing as well as actigraphy. The study will investigate a range of clinical outcomes over a 2-year period, including transition to psychosis, remission or persistence of CHR status, attenuated positive symptoms, persistent negative symptoms, mood and anxiety symptoms, and psychosocial functioning. The global reach of AMP SCZ and its harmonized innovative methods promise to catalyze the development of new treatments to address critical unmet clinical and public health needs in CHR individuals.

Implementing and Evaluating a National Integrated Digital Registry and Clinical Decision Support System in Early Intervention in Psychosis Services (Early Psychosis Informatics Into Care): Co-Designed Protocol

BACKGROUND

Early intervention in psychosis (EIP) services are nationally mandated in England to provide multidisciplinary care to people experiencing first-episode psychosis, which disproportionately affects deprived and ethnic minority youth. Quality of service provision varies by region, and people from historically underserved populations have unequal access. In other disease areas, including stroke and dementia, national digital registries coupled with clinical decision support systems (CDSSs) have revolutionized the delivery of equitable, evidence-based interventions to transform patient outcomes and reduce population-level disparities in care. Given psychosis is ranked the third most burdensome mental health condition by the World Health Organization, it is essential that we achieve the same parity of health improvements.

OBJECTIVE

This paper reports the protocol for the program development phase of this study, in which we aimed to co-design and produce an evidence-based, stakeholder-informed framework for the building, implementation, piloting, and evaluation of a national integrated digital registry and CDSS for psychosis, known as EPICare (Early Psychosis Informatics into Care).

METHODS

We conducted 3 concurrent work packages, with reciprocal knowledge exchange between each. In work package 1, using a participatory co-design framework, key stakeholders (clinicians, academics, policy makers, and patient and public contributors) engaged in 4 workshops to review, refine, and identify a core set of essential and desirable measures and features of the EPICare registry and CDSS. Using a modified Delphi approach, we then developed a consensus of data priorities. In work package 2, we collaborated with National Health Service (NHS) informatics teams to identify relevant data currently captured in electronic health records, understand data retrieval methods, and design the software architecture and data model to inform future implementation. In work package 3, observations of stakeholder workshops and individual interviews with representative stakeholders (n=10) were subject to interpretative qualitative analysis, guided by normalization process theory, to identify factors likely to influence the adoption and implementation of EPICare into routine practice.

RESULTS

Stage 1 of the EPICare study took place between December 2021 and September 2022. The next steps include stage 2 building, piloting, implementation, and evaluation of EPICare in 5 demonstrator NHS Trusts serving underserved and diverse populations with substantial need for EIP care in England. If successful, this will be followed by stage 3, in which we will seek NHS adoption of EPICare for rollout to all EIP services in England.

CONCLUSIONS

By establishing a multistakeholder network and engaging them in an iterative co-design process, we have identified essential and desirable elements of the EPICare registry and CDSS; proactively identified and minimized potential challenges and barriers to uptake and implementation; and addressed key questions related to informatics architecture, infrastructure, governance, and integration in diverse NHS Trusts, enabling us to proceed with the building, piloting, implementation, and evaluation of EPICare.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/50177.

Distinct multimodal biological and functional profiles of symptom-based subgroups in recent-onset psychosis

Symptom heterogeneity characterizes psychotic disorders and hinders the delineation of underlying biomarkers. Here, we identify symptom-based subtypes of recent-onset psychosis (ROP) patients from the multi-center PRONIA (Personalized Prognostic Tools for Early Psychosis Management) database and explore their multimodal biological and functional signatures. We clustered N = 328 ROP patients based on their maximum factor scores in an exploratory factor analysis on the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale items. We assessed inter-subgroup differences and compared to N = 464 healthy control (HC) individuals regarding gray matter volume (GMV), neurocognition, polygenic risk scores, and longitudinal functioning trajectories. Finally, we evaluated factor stability at 9- and 18-month follow-ups. A 4-factor solution optimally explained symptom heterogeneity, showing moderate longitudinal stability. The ROP-MOTCOG (Motor/Cognition) subgroup was characterized by GMV reductions within salience, control and default mode networks, predominantly throughout cingulate regions, relative to HC individuals, had the most impaired neurocognition and the highest genetic liability for schizophrenia. ROP-SOCWD (Social Withdrawal) patients showed GMV reductions within medial fronto-temporal regions of the control, default mode, and salience networks, and had the lowest social functioning across time points. ROP-POS (Positive) evidenced GMV decreases in salience, limbic and frontal regions of the control and default mode networks. The ROP-AFF (Affective) subgroup showed GMV reductions in the salience, limbic, and posterior default-mode and control networks, thalamus and cerebellum. GMV reductions in fronto-temporal regions of the salience and control networks were shared across subgroups. Our results highlight the existence of behavioral subgroups with distinct neurobiological and functional profiles in early psychosis, emphasizing the need for refined symptom-based diagnosis and prognosis frameworks.

Alterations of Functional Connectivity Dynamics in Affective and Psychotic Disorders

BACKGROUND

Psychosis and depression patients exhibit widespread neurobiological abnormalities. The analysis of dynamic functional connectivity (dFC), allows for the detection of changes in complex brain activity patterns, providing insights into common and unique processes underlying these disorders.

METHODS

In the present study, we report the analysis of dFC in a large patient sample including 127 clinical high-risk patients (CHR), 142 recent-onset psychosis (ROP) patients, 134 recent-onset depression (ROD) patients, and 256 healthy controls (HC). A sliding window-based technique was used to calculate the time-dependent FC in resting-state MRI data, followed by clustering to reveal recurrent FC states in each diagnostic group.

RESULTS

We identified five unique FC states, which could be identified in all groups with high consistency (rmean = 0.889, sd = 0.116). Analysis of dynamic parameters of these states showed a characteristic increase in the lifetime and frequency of a weakly-connected FC state in ROD patients (p < 0.0005) compared to most other groups, and a common increase in the lifetime of a FC state characterised by high sensorimotor and cingulo-opercular connectivities in all patient groups compared to the HC group (p < 0.0002). Canonical correlation analysis revealed a mode which exhibited significant correlations between dFC parameters and clinical variables (r = 0.617, p < 0.0029), which was associated with positive psychosis symptom severity and several dFC parameters.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate diagnosis-specific alterations of dFC and underline the potential of dynamic analysis to characterize disorders such as depression, psychosis and clinical risk states.

Understanding the Mechanisms of Cognitive Remediation on Recovery in People With Early Psychosis: A Mediation and Moderation Analysis

BACKGROUND

To provide precision cognitive remediation therapy (CR) for schizophrenia, we need to understand whether the mechanism for improved functioning is via cognition improvements. This mechanism has not been rigorously tested for potential moderator effects.

STUDY DESIGN

We used data (n = 377) from a randomized controlled trial using CIRCuiTS, a therapist-supported CR, with participants from first-episode psychosis services. We applied structured equation modeling to test whether: (1) CR hours explain the goal attainment functional outcome (GAS) at posttreatment, (2) global cognitive improvement mediates GAS, and if (3) total symptoms moderate the CR hours to cognitive improvement pathway, and/or negative symptoms moderate the cognition to functioning pathway, testing moderator effects via the mediator or directly on CR hours to functioning path.

STUDY RESULTS

CR produced significant functioning benefit for each therapy hour (Coeff = 0.203, 95% CI 0.101-0.304, P < .001). The mediated path from CR hours to cognition and cognition to functioning was small and nonsignificant (Coeff = 0.014, 95% CI = -0.010, 0.037, P = .256). Total symptoms did not moderate the path to cognition (P = .211) or the direct path to outcome (P = .896). However, negative symptoms significantly moderated the effect of cognitive improvements on functioning (P = .015) with high negative symptoms reducing the functional gains of improved cognition.

CONCLUSIONS

Although cognitive improvements were correlated with functioning benefit, they did not fully explain the positive effect of increased therapy hours on functioning, suggesting additional CR factors also contribute to therapy benefit. Negative symptoms interfere with the translation of cognitive improvements into functional gains so need consideration.

Experience-based Investigation and Co-design of Psychosis Centred Integrated Care Services for Ethnically Diverse People with Multimorbidity (CoPICS): study protocol

INTRODUCTION

Ethnic minorities (also called racialised groups) are more likely to experience severe mental illness (SMI). People with SMI are more likely to experience multimorbidity (MM), making psychosis among racialised groups more likely to lead to MM, poor outcomes, disability and premature mortality.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This National Institute for Health and Care Research-funded study (151887) seeks to use innovative participatory methods including photovoice and biographical narrative interviews in urban and rural areas of England to assemble experience data. These data will be subjected to polytextual thematic analysis, and alongside pictures and captions, will inform an experienced-based co-design of interventions, the implementation of which will be evaluated. There will be an economic analysis and a process evaluation of the implementation.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This programme of work has received ethical (IRAS 322421; Newcastle North Tyneside Research Ethics Committee 23/NE/0143) and sponsor approval. The findings will be disseminated in galleries showing the creative work, as lay and academic summaries and infographics; as practice briefings for practitioners, commissioners and policy makers; peer-reviewed publications.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

https://www.researchregistry.com/browse-the-registry%23home/registrationdetails/649c08111c037d0027b17d17/.

Protecting and promoting editorial independence

We argue that editorial independence, through robust practice of publication ethics and research integrity, promotes good science and prevents bad science. We elucidate the concept of research integrity, and then discuss the dimensions of editorial independence. Best practice guidelines exist, but compliance with these guidelines varies. Therefore, we make recommendations for protecting and strengthening editorial independence.

CLEAR - clozapine in early psychosis: study protocol for a multi-centre, randomised controlled trial of clozapine vs other antipsychotics for young people with treatment resistant schizophrenia in real world settings

BACKGROUND

Clozapine is an antipsychotic drug with unique efficacy, and it is the only recommended treatment for treatment-resistant schizophrenia (TRS: failure to respond to at least two different antipsychotics). However, clozapine is also associated with a range of adverse effects which restrict its use, including blood dyscrasias, for which haematological monitoring is required. As treatment resistance is recognised earlier in the illness, the question of whether clozapine should be prescribed in children and young people is increasingly important. However, most research to date has been in older, chronic patients, and evidence regarding the efficacy and safety of clozapine in people under age 25 is lacking. The CLEAR (CLozapine in EARly psychosis) trial will assess whether clozapine is more effective than treatment as usual (TAU), at the level of clinical symptoms, patient rated outcomes, quality of life and cost-effectiveness in people below 25 years of age. Additionally, a nested biomarker study will investigate the mechanisms of action of clozapine compared to TAU.

METHODS AND DESIGN

This is the protocol of a multi-centre, open label, blind-rated, randomised controlled effectiveness trial of clozapine vs TAU (any other oral antipsychotic monotherapy licenced in the British National Formulary) for 12 weeks in 260 children and young people with TRS (12-24 years old).

AIM AND OBJECTIVES

The primary outcome is the change in blind-rated Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale scores at 12 weeks from baseline. Secondary outcomes include blind-rated Clinical Global Impression, patient-rated outcomes, quality of life, adverse effects, and treatment adherence. Patients will be followed up for 12 months and will be invited to give consent for longer term follow-up using clinical records and potential re-contact for further research. For mechanism of action, change in brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) biomarkers and peripheral inflammatory markers will be measured over 12 weeks.

DISCUSSION

The CLEAR trial will contribute knowledge on clozapine effectiveness, safety and cost-effectiveness compared to standard antipsychotics in young people with TRS, and the results may guide future clinical treatment recommendation for early psychosis.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN Number: 37176025, IRAS Number: 1004947.

TRIAL STATUS

In set-up. Protocol version 4.0 01/08/23. Current up to date protocol available here: https://fundingawards.nihr.ac.uk/award/NIHR131175# /.

Algorithmic fairness in precision psychiatry: analysis of prediction models in individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis

BACKGROUND

Computational models offer promising potential for personalised treatment of psychiatric diseases. For their clinical deployment, fairness must be evaluated alongside accuracy. Fairness requires predictive models to not unfairly disadvantage specific demographic groups. Failure to assess model fairness prior to use risks perpetuating healthcare inequalities. Despite its importance, empirical investigation of fairness in predictive models for psychiatry remains scarce.

AIMS

To evaluate fairness in prediction models for development of psychosis and functional outcome.

METHOD

Using data from the PRONIA study, we examined fairness in 13 published models for prediction of transition to psychosis (n = 11) and functional outcome (n = 2) in people at clinical high risk for psychosis or with recent-onset depression. Using accuracy equality, predictive parity, false-positive error rate balance and false-negative error rate balance, we evaluated relevant fairness aspects for the demographic attributes 'gender' and 'educational attainment' and compared them with the fairness of clinicians' judgements.

RESULTS

Our findings indicate systematic bias towards assigning less favourable outcomes to individuals with lower educational attainment in both prediction models and clinicians' judgements, resulting in higher false-positive rates in 7 of 11 models for transition to psychosis. Interestingly, the bias patterns observed in algorithmic predictions were not significantly more pronounced than those in clinicians' predictions.

CONCLUSIONS

Educational bias was present in algorithmic and clinicians' predictions, assuming more favourable outcomes for individuals with higher educational level (years of education). This bias might lead to increased stigma and psychosocial burden in patients with lower educational attainment and suboptimal psychosis prevention in those with higher educational attainment.

Transdiagnostic subgroups of cognitive impairment in early affective and psychotic illness

Cognitively impaired and spared patient subgroups were identified in psychosis and depression, and in clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR). Studies suggest differences in underlying brain structural and functional characteristics. It is unclear whether cognitive subgroups are transdiagnostic phenomena in early stages of psychotic and affective disorder which can be validated on the neural level. Patients with recent-onset psychosis (ROP; N = 140; female = 54), recent-onset depression (ROD; N = 130; female = 73), CHR (N = 128; female = 61) and healthy controls (HC; N = 270; female = 165) were recruited through the multi-site study PRONIA. The transdiagnostic sample and individual study groups were clustered into subgroups based on their performance in eight cognitive domains and characterized by gray matter volume (sMRI) and resting-state functional connectivity (rsFC) using support vector machine (SVM) classification. We identified an impaired subgroup (NROP = 79, NROD = 30, NCHR = 37) showing cognitive impairment in executive functioning, working memory, processing speed and verbal learning (all p < 0.001). A spared subgroup (NROP = 61, NROD = 100, NCHR = 91) performed comparable to HC. Single-disease subgroups indicated that cognitive impairment is stronger pronounced in impaired ROP compared to impaired ROD and CHR. Subgroups in ROP and ROD showed specific symptom- and functioning-patterns. rsFC showed superior accuracy compared to sMRI in differentiating transdiagnostic subgroups from HC (BACimpaired = 58.5%; BACspared = 61.7%, both: p < 0.01). Cognitive findings were validated in the PRONIA replication sample (N = 409). Individual cognitive subgroups in ROP, ROD and CHR are more informative than transdiagnostic subgroups as they map onto individual cognitive impairment and specific functioning- and symptom-patterns which show limited overlap in sMRI and rsFC. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRY NAME: German Clinical Trials Register (DRKS). Clinical trial registry URL: https://www.drks.de/drks_web/ . Clinical trial registry number: DRKS00005042.

A multivariate cognitive approach to predict social functioning in recent onset psychosis in response to computerized cognitive training

Clinical and neuroimaging data has been increasingly used in recent years to disentangle heterogeneity of treatment response to cognitive training (CT) and predict which individuals may achieve the highest benefits. CT has small to medium effects on improving cognitive and social functioning in recent onset psychosis (ROP) patients, who show the most profound cognitive and social functioning deficits among psychiatric patients. We employed multivariate pattern analysis (MVPA) to investigate the potential of cognitive data to predict social functioning improvement in response to 10 h of CT in patients with ROP. A support vector machine (SVM) classifier was trained on the naturalistic data of the Personalized Prognostic Tools for Early Psychosis Management (PRONIA) study sample to predict functioning in an independent sample of 70 ROP patients using baseline cognitive data. PRONIA is a part of a FP7 EU grant program that involved 7 sites across 5 European countries, designed and conducted with the main aim of identifying (bio)markers associated with an enhanced risk of developing psychosis in order to improve early detection and prognosis. Social functioning was predicted with a balanced accuracy (BAC) of 66.4% (Sensitivity 78.8%; Specificity 54.1%; PPV 60.5%; NPV 74.1%; AUC 0.64; P = 0.01). The most frequently selected cognitive features (mean feature weights > ± 0.2) included the (1) correct number of symbol matchings within the Digit Symbol Substitution Test, (2) the number of distracting stimuli leading to an error within 300 and 200 trials in the Continuous Performance Test and (3) the dynamics of verbal fluency between 15 and 30 s within the Verbal Fluency Test, phonetic part. Next, the SVM classifier generated on the PRONIA sample was applied to the intervention sample, that obtained 54 ROP patients who were randomly assigned to a social cognitive training (SCT) or treatment as usual (TAU) group and dichotomized into good (GF-S ≥ 7) and poor (GF-S < 7) functioning patients based on their level of Global Functioning-Social (GF-S) score at follow-up (FU). By applying the initial PRONIA classifier, using out-of-sample cross-validation (OOCV) to the sample of ROP patients who have undergone the CT intervention, a BAC of 59.3% (Sensitivity 70.4%; Specificity 48.1%; PPV 57.6%; NPV 61.9%; AUC 0.63) was achieved at T0 and a BAC of 64.8% (Sensitivity 66.7%; Specificity 63.0%; PPV 64.3%; NPV 65.4%; AUC 0.66) at FU. After SCT intervention, a significant improvement in predicted social functioning values was observed in the SCT compared to TAU group (P ≤0.05; ES[Cohens' d] = 0.18). Due to a small sample size and modest variance of social functioning of the intervention sample it was not feasible to predict individual response to SCT in the current study. Our findings suggest that the use of baseline cognitive data could provide a robust individual estimate of future social functioning, while prediction of individual response to SCT using cognitive data that can be generated in the routine patient care remains to be addressed in large-scale cognitive training trials.

Changes in immunoglobulin levels during clozapine treatment in schizophrenia

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS

Use of clozapine in treatment-resistant schizophrenia is often limited due to risk of adverse effects. Cross-sectional associations between clozapine treatment and low immunoglobulin levels have been reported, however prospective studies are required to establish temporal relationships. We tested the hypothesis that reductions in immunoglobulin levels would occur over the first 6 months following initiation of clozapine treatment. Relationships between immunoglobulin levels and symptom severity over the course of clozapine treatment were also explored.

DESIGN

This prospective observational study measured immunoglobulin (Ig) levels (A, M and G) in 56 patients with treatment-resistant schizophrenia at 6-, 12- and 24-weeks following initiation with clozapine. Clinical symptoms were also measured at 12 weeks using the positive and negative syndrome scale (PANSS).

RESULTS

IgA, IgG and IgM all decreased during clozapine treatment. For IgA and IgG the reduction was significant at 24 weeks (IgA: β = -32.66, 95% CI = -62.38, -2.93, p = 0.03; IgG: β = -63.96, 95% CI = -118.00, -9.31, p = 0.02). For IgM the reduction was significant at 12 and 24 weeks (12 weeks: β = -23.48, 95% CI = -39.56, -7.42, p = 0.004; 24 weeks: β = -33.12, 95 %CI = -50.30, -15.94, p = <0.001). Reductions in IgA and IgG during clozapine treatment were correlated with reductions in PANSS-total over 12 weeks (n = 32, IgA r = 0.59, p = 0.005; IgG r = 0.48, p = 0.03).

CONCLUSIONS

The observed reductions in immunoglobulin levels over six months of clozapine treatment add further evidence linking clozapine to secondary antibody deficiency. Associations between Ig reduction and symptom improvement may however indicate that immune mechanisms contribute to both desirable and undesirable effects of clozapine.

Measurement of brain glutathione with magnetic Resonance spectroscopy in Schizophrenia-Spectrum disorders - A systematic review and Meta-Analysis

Oxidative stress may contribute to declining course and poor outcomes in psychosis. However, in vivo Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy studies yield disparate results due to clinical stage, sample demographics, neuroanatomical focus, sample size, and acquisition method variations. We investigated glutathione in brain regions from participants with psychosis, and the relation of glutathione to clinical features and spectroscopy protocols. Meta-analysis comprised 21 studies. Glutathione levels did not differ between total psychosis patients (N = 639) and controls (N = 704) in the Medial Prefrontal region (k = 21, d = -0.09, CI = -0.28 to 0.10, p = 0.37). Patients with stable schizophrenia exhibited a small but significant glutathione reduction compared to controls (k = 14, d = -0.20, CI = -0.40 to -0.00, p = 0.05). Meta-regression showed older studies had greater glutathione reductions, possibly reflecting greater accuracy related to spectroscopy advancements in more recent studies. No significant effects of methodological variables, such as voxel size or echo time were found. Reduced glutathione in patients with stable established schizophrenia may provide novel targets for precision medicine. Standardizing MRS acquisition methods in future studies may help address discrepancies in glutathione levels.

A realist review of medication optimisation of community dwelling service users with serious mental illness

BACKGROUND

Severe mental illness (SMI) incorporates schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, non-organic psychosis, personality disorder or any other severe and enduring mental health illness. Medication, particularly antipsychotics and mood stabilisers are the main treatment options. Medication optimisation is a hallmark of medication safety, characterised by the use of collaborative, person-centred approaches. There is very little published research describing medication optimisation with people living with SMI.

OBJECTIVE

Published literature and two stakeholder groups were employed to answer: What works for whom and in what circumstances to optimise medication use with people living with SMI in the community?

METHODS

A five-stage realist review was co-conducted with a lived experience group of individuals living with SMI and a practitioner group caring for individuals with SMI. An initial programme theory was developed. A formal literature search was conducted across eight bibliographic databases, and literature were screened for relevance to programme theory refinement. In total 60 papers contributed to the review. 42 papers were from the original database search with 18 papers identified from additional database searches and citation searches conducted based on stakeholder recommendations.

RESULTS

Our programme theory represents a continuum from a service user's initial diagnosis of SMI to therapeutic alliance development with practitioners, followed by mutual exchange of information, shared decision-making and medication optimisation. Accompanying the programme theory are 11 context-mechanism-outcome configurations that propose evidence-informed contextual factors and mechanisms that either facilitate or impede medication optimisation. Two mid-range theories highlighted in this review are supported decision-making and trust formation.

CONCLUSIONS

Supported decision-making and trust are foundational to overcoming stigma and establishing 'safety' and comfort between service users and practitioners. Avenues for future research include the influence of stigma and equity across cultural and ethnic groups with individuals with SMI; and use of trained supports, such as peer support workers.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42021280980.

Structural and Functional Brain Patterns Predict Formal Thought Disorder's Severity and Its Persistence in Recent-Onset Psychosis: Results From the PRONIA Study

BACKGROUND

Formal thought disorder (FThD) is a core feature of psychosis, and its severity and long-term persistence relates to poor clinical outcomes. However, advances in developing early recognition and management tools for FThD are hindered by a lack of insight into the brain-level predictors of FThD states and progression at the individual level.

METHODS

Two hundred thirty-three individuals with recent-onset psychosis were drawn from the multisite European Prognostic Tools for Early Psychosis Management study. Support vector machine classifiers were trained within a cross-validation framework to separate two FThD symptom-based subgroups (high vs. low FThD severity), using cross-sectional whole-brain multiband fractional amplitude of low frequency fluctuations, gray matter volume and white matter volume data. Moreover, we trained machine learning models on these neuroimaging readouts to predict the persistence of high FThD subgroup membership from baseline to 1-year follow-up.

RESULTS

Cross-sectionally, multivariate patterns of gray matter volume within the salience, dorsal attention, visual, and ventral attention networks separated the FThD severity subgroups (balanced accuracy [BAC] = 60.8%). Longitudinally, distributed activations/deactivations within all fractional amplitude of low frequency fluctuation sub-bands (BACslow-5 = 73.2%, BACslow-4 = 72.9%, BACslow-3 = 68.0%), gray matter volume patterns overlapping with the cross-sectional ones (BAC = 62.7%), and smaller frontal white matter volume (BAC = 73.1%) predicted the persistence of high FThD severity from baseline to follow-up, with a combined multimodal balanced accuracy of BAC = 77%.

CONCLUSIONS

We report the first evidence of brain structural and functional patterns predictive of FThD severity and persistence in early psychosis. These findings open up avenues for the development of neuroimaging-based diagnostic, prognostic, and treatment options for the early recognition and management of FThD and associated poor outcomes.

The neural, stress hormone and inflammatory correlates of childhood deprivation and threat in psychosis: A systematic review

Childhood adversity increases the risk of developing psychosis, but the biological mechanisms involved are unknown. Disaggregating early adverse experiences into core dimensions of deprivation and threat may help to elucidate these mechanisms. We therefore systematically searched the literature investigating associations between deprivation and threat, and neural, immune and stress hormone systems in individuals on the psychosis spectrum. Our search yielded 74 articles, from which we extracted and synthesized relevant findings. While study designs were heterogeneous and findings inconsistent, some trends emerged. In psychosis, deprivation tended to correlate with lower global cortical volume, and some evidence supported threat-related variation in prefrontal cortex morphology. Greater threat exposure was also associated with higher C-reactive protein, and higher and lower cortisol measures. When examined, associations in controls were less evident. Overall, findings indicate that deprivation and threat may associate with partially distinct biological mechanisms in the psychosis spectrum, and that associations may be stronger than in controls. Dimensional approaches may help disentangle the biological correlates of childhood adversity in psychosis, but more studies are needed.

Multiorgan MRI findings after hospitalisation with COVID-19 in the UK (C-MORE): a prospective, multicentre, observational cohort study

INTRODUCTION

The multiorgan impact of moderate to severe coronavirus infections in the post-acute phase is still poorly understood. We aimed to evaluate the excess burden of multiorgan abnormalities after hospitalisation with COVID-19, evaluate their determinants, and explore associations with patient-related outcome measures.

METHODS

In a prospective, UK-wide, multicentre MRI follow-up study (C-MORE), adults (aged ≥18 years) discharged from hospital following COVID-19 who were included in Tier 2 of the Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) and contemporary controls with no evidence of previous COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antibody negative) underwent multiorgan MRI (lungs, heart, brain, liver, and kidneys) with quantitative and qualitative assessment of images and clinical adjudication when relevant. Individuals with end-stage renal failure or contraindications to MRI were excluded. Participants also underwent detailed recording of symptoms, and physiological and biochemical tests. The primary outcome was the excess burden of multiorgan abnormalities (two or more organs) relative to controls, with further adjustments for potential confounders. The C-MORE study is ongoing and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04510025.

FINDINGS

Of 2710 participants in Tier 2 of PHOSP-COVID, 531 were recruited across 13 UK-wide C-MORE sites. After exclusions, 259 C-MORE patients (mean age 57 years [SD 12]; 158 [61%] male and 101 [39%] female) who were discharged from hospital with PCR-confirmed or clinically diagnosed COVID-19 between March 1, 2020, and Nov 1, 2021, and 52 non-COVID-19 controls from the community (mean age 49 years [SD 14]; 30 [58%] male and 22 [42%] female) were included in the analysis. Patients were assessed at a median of 5·0 months (IQR 4·2-6·3) after hospital discharge. Compared with non-COVID-19 controls, patients were older, living with more obesity, and had more comorbidities. Multiorgan abnormalities on MRI were more frequent in patients than in controls (157 [61%] of 259 vs 14 [27%] of 52; p<0·0001) and independently associated with COVID-19 status (odds ratio [OR] 2·9 [95% CI 1·5-5·8]; padjusted=0·0023) after adjusting for relevant confounders. Compared with controls, patients were more likely to have MRI evidence of lung abnormalities (p=0·0001; parenchymal abnormalities), brain abnormalities (p<0·0001; more white matter hyperintensities and regional brain volume reduction), and kidney abnormalities (p=0·014; lower medullary T1 and loss of corticomedullary differentiation), whereas cardiac and liver MRI abnormalities were similar between patients and controls. Patients with multiorgan abnormalities were older (difference in mean age 7 years [95% CI 4-10]; mean age of 59·8 years [SD 11·7] with multiorgan abnormalities vs mean age of 52·8 years [11·9] without multiorgan abnormalities; p<0·0001), more likely to have three or more comorbidities (OR 2·47 [1·32-4·82]; padjusted=0·0059), and more likely to have a more severe acute infection (acute CRP >5mg/L, OR 3·55 [1·23-11·88]; padjusted=0·025) than those without multiorgan abnormalities. Presence of lung MRI abnormalities was associated with a two-fold higher risk of chest tightness, and multiorgan MRI abnormalities were associated with severe and very severe persistent physical and mental health impairment (PHOSP-COVID symptom clusters) after hospitalisation.

INTERPRETATION

After hospitalisation for COVID-19, people are at risk of multiorgan abnormalities in the medium term. Our findings emphasise the need for proactive multidisciplinary care pathways, with the potential for imaging to guide surveillance frequency and therapeutic stratification.

FUNDING

UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health Research.

Antidepressants for the prevention of depression following first-episode psychosis (ADEPP): study protocol for a multi-centre, double-blind, randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Depressive episodes are common after first-episode psychosis (FEP), affecting more than 40% of people, adding to individual burden, poor outcomes, and healthcare costs. If the risks of developing depression were lower, this could have a beneficial effect on morbidity and mortality, as well as improving outcomes. Sertraline is a selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor and a common first-line medication for the treatment of depression in adults. It has been shown to be safe when co-prescribed with antipsychotic medication, and there is evidence that it is an effective treatment for depression in established schizophrenia. We present a protocol for a multi-centre, double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled clinical trial called ADEPP that aims to investigate the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of sertraline in preventing depression after FEP.

METHODS

The recruitment target is 452 participants between the ages of 18 and 65 years who are within 12 months of treatment initiation for FEP. Having provided informed consent, participants will be randomised to receive either 50 mg of sertraline daily or matched placebo for 6 months, in addition to treatment as usual. The primary outcome measure will be a comparison of the number of new cases of depression between the treatment and placebo arms over the 6-month intervention phase. Secondary outcomes include suicidal behaviour, anxiety, rates of relapse, functional outcome, quality of life, and resource use.

DISCUSSION

The ADEPP trial will test whether the addition of sertraline following FEP is a clinically useful, acceptable, and cost-effective way of improving outcomes following FEP.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN12682719 registration date 24/11/2020.

Early neutrophil trajectory following clozapine may predict clozapine response - Results from an observational study using electronic health records

BACKGROUND

Clozapine has unique effectiveness in treatment-resistant schizophrenia and is known to cause immunological side-effects. A transient spike in neutrophils commonly occurs in the first weeks of clozapine therapy. There is contradictory evidence in the literature as to whether neutrophil changes with clozapine are linked to treatment response.

AIMS

The current study aims to further examine the neutrophil changes in response to clozapine and explore any association between neutrophil trajectory and treatment response.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study of patients undergoing their first treatment with clozapine and continuing for at least 2 years identified 425 patients (69% male/31% female). Neutrophil counts at baseline, 3 weeks and 1 month were obtained predominantly by linkage with data from the clozapine monitoring service. Clinical Global Impression- Severity (CGI-S) was rated from case notes at the time of clozapine initiation and at 2 years. Latent class growth analysis (LCGA) was performed to define distinct trajectories of neutrophil changes during the first month of treatment. Logistic regression was then conducted to investigate for association between the trajectory of neutrophil count changes in month 1 and clinical response at 2 years as well as between baseline neutrophil count and response.

RESULTS

Of the original cohort, 397 (93%) patients had useable neutrophil data during the first 6 weeks of clozapine treatment. LCGA revealed significant differences in neutrophil trajectories with a three-class model being the most parsimonious. The classes had similar trajectory profiles but differed primarily on overall neutrophil count: with low, high-normal and high neutrophil classes, comprising 52%, 40% and 8% of the sample respectively. Membership of the high-normal group was associated with significantly increased odds of a positive response to clozapine, as compared to the low neutrophil group [Odds ratio (OR) = 2.10, p-value = 0.002; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) = 1.31-3.36]. Baseline neutrophil count was a predictor of response to clozapine at 2 years, with counts of ≥5 × 109/l significantly associated with positive response (OR = 1.60, p-value = 0.03; 95% CI = 1.03-2.49).

CONCLUSIONS

Our data are consistent with the hypothesis that patients with low-level inflammation, reflected in a high-normal neutrophil count, are more likely to respond to clozapine, raising the possibility that clozapine exerts its superior efficacy via immune mechanisms.

Inflammatory subgroups of schizophrenia and their association with brain structure: A semi-supervised machine learning examination of heterogeneity

OBJECTIVE

Immune system dysfunction is hypothesised to contribute to structural brain changes through aberrant synaptic pruning in schizophrenia. However, evidence is mixed and there is a lack of evidence of inflammation and its effect on grey matter volume (GMV) in patients. We hypothesised that inflammatory subgroups can be identified and that the subgroups will show distinct neuroanatomical and neurocognitive profiles.

METHODS

The total sample consisted of 1067 participants (chronic patients with schizophrenia n = 467 and healthy controls (HCs) n = 600) from the Australia Schizophrenia Research Bank (ASRB) dataset, together with 218 recent-onset patients with schizophrenia from the external Benefit of Minocycline on Negative Symptoms of Psychosis: Extent and Mechanism (BeneMin) dataset. HYDRA (HeterogeneitY through DiscRiminant Analysis) was used to separate schizophrenia from HC and define disease-related subgroups based on inflammatory markers. Voxel-based morphometry and inferential statistics were used to explore GMV alterations and neurocognitive deficits in these subgroups.

RESULTS

An optimal clustering solution revealed five main schizophrenia groups separable from HC: Low Inflammation, Elevated CRP, Elevated IL-6/IL-8, Elevated IFN-γ, and Elevated IL-10 with an adjusted Rand index of 0.573. When compared with the healthy controls, the IL-6/IL-8 cluster showed the most widespread, including the anterior cingulate, GMV reduction. The IFN-γ inflammation cluster showed the least GMV reduction and impairment of cognitive performance. The CRP and the Low Inflammation clusters dominated in the younger external dataset.

CONCLUSIONS

Inflammation in schizophrenia may not be merely a case of low vs high, but rather there are pluripotent, heterogeneous mechanisms at play which could be reliably identified based on accessible, peripheral measures. This could inform the successful development of targeted interventions.

Prevalence of cognitive impairments and strengths in the early course of psychosis and depression

BACKGROUND

Studies investigating cognitive impairments in psychosis and depression have typically compared the average performance of the clinical group against healthy controls (HC), and do not report on the actual prevalence of cognitive impairments or strengths within these clinical groups. This information is essential so that clinical services can provide adequate resources to supporting cognitive functioning. Thus, we investigated this prevalence in individuals in the early course of psychosis or depression.

METHODS

A comprehensive cognitive test battery comprising 12 tests was completed by 1286 individuals aged 15-41 (mean age 25.07, s.d. 5.88) from the PRONIA study at baseline: HC (N = 454), clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR; N = 270), recent-onset depression (ROD; N = 267), and recent-onset psychosis (ROP; N = 295). Z-scores were calculated to estimate the prevalence of moderate or severe deficits or strengths (>2 s.d. or 1-2 s.d. below or above HC, respectively) for each cognitive test.

RESULTS

Impairment in at least two cognitive tests was as follows: ROP (88.3% moderately, 45.1% severely impaired), CHR (71.2% moderately, 22.4% severely impaired), ROD (61.6% moderately, 16.2% severely impaired). Across clinical groups, impairments were most prevalent in tests of working memory, processing speed, and verbal learning. Above average performance (>1 s.d.) in at least two tests was present for 40.5% ROD, 36.1% CHR, 16.1% ROP, and was >2 SDs in 1.8% ROD, 1.4% CHR, and 0% ROP.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that interventions should be tailored to the individual, with working memory, processing speed, and verbal learning likely to be important transdiagnostic targets.

Neurocognitive skills and vulnerability for psychosis in depression and across the psychotic spectrum: findings from the PRONIA Consortium

BACKGROUND

Neurocognitive deficits are a core feature of psychosis and depression. Despite commonalities in cognitive alterations, it remains unclear if and how the cognitive deficits in patients at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR) and those with recent-onset psychosis (ROP) are distinct from those seen in recent-onset depression (ROD).

AIMS

This study was carried out within the European project 'Personalized Prognostic Tools for Early Psychosis Management', and aimed to characterise the cognitive profiles of patients with psychosis or depression.

METHOD

We examined cognitive profiles for patients with ROP (n = 105), patients with ROD (n = 123), patients at CHR (n = 116) and healthy controls (n = 372) across seven sites in five European countries. Confirmatory factor analysis identified four cognitive factors independent of gender, education and site: speed of processing, attention and working memory, verbal learning and spatial learning.

RESULTS

Patients with ROP performed worse than healthy controls in all four domains (P < 0.001), whereas performance of patients with ROD was not affected (P > 0.05). Patients at CHR performed worse than healthy controls in speed of processing (P = 0.001) and spatial learning (P = 0.003), but better than patients with ROP across all cognitive domains (all P ≤ 0.01). CHR and ROD groups did not significantly differ in any cognitive domain. These findings were independent of comorbid depressive symptoms, substance consumption and illness duration.

CONCLUSIONS

These results show that neurocognitive abilities are affected in CHR and ROP, whereas ROD seems spared. Although our findings may support the notion that those at CHR have a specific vulnerability to psychosis, future studies investigating broader transdiagnostic risk cohorts in longitudinal designs are needed.

Satisfaction with cognitive remediation therapy: its effects on implementation and outcomes using the cognitive remediation satisfaction scale

Cognitive Remediation (CR) improves cognition and functioning but is implemented in a variety of ways (independent, group and one-to-one). There is no information on whether service users find these implementation methods acceptable or if their satisfaction influences CR outcomes. We used mixed participatory methods, including focus groups, to co-develop a CR satisfaction scale. This was refined using three psychometric criteria (Cronbach's alpha, item discrimination, test-retest agreement) to select items. Factor analysis explored potential substructures. The refined measure was used in structural equation joint modelling to evaluate whether satisfaction with CR is affected by implementation method and treatment engagement or influences recovery outcome, using data from a randomised controlled trial. Four themes (therapy hours, therapist, treatment effects, computer use) generated a 31-item Cognitive Remediation Satisfaction scale (CRS) that reduced to 18 Likert items, 2 binary and 2 open-ended questions following psychometric assessment. CRS had good internal consistency (Alpha = 0.814), test-retest reliability (r= 0.763), and concurrent validity using the Working Alliance Inventory (r = 0.56). A 2-factor solution divided items into therapy engagement and therapy effects. Satisfaction was not related to implementation method but was significantly associated with CR engagement. Therapy hours were significantly associated with recovery, but there was no direct effect of satisfaction on outcome. Although satisfaction is important to therapy engagement, it has no direct effect on outcome. CR therapy hours directly affect outcome irrespective of which implementation model is used, so measuring satisfaction early might help to identify those who are likely to disengage. The study has mixed methods design.

Network analysis of inflammation and symptoms in recent onset schizophrenia and the influence of minocycline during a clinical trial

Attempts to delineate an immune subtype of schizophrenia have not yet led to the clear identification of potential treatment targets. An unbiased informatic approach at the level of individual immune cytokines and symptoms may reveal organisational structures underlying heterogeneity in schizophrenia, and potential for future therapies. The aim was to determine the network and relative influence of pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines on depressive, positive, and negative symptoms. We further aimed to determine the effect of exposure to minocycline or placebo for 6 months on cytokine-symptom network connectivity and structure. Network analysis was applied to baseline and 6-month data from the large multi-center BeneMin trial of minocycline (N = 207) in schizophrenia. Pro-inflammatory cytokines IL-6, TNF-α, and IFN-γ had the greatest influence in the inflammatory network and were associated with depressive symptoms and suspiciousness at baseline. At 6 months, the placebo group network connectivity was 57% stronger than the minocycline group, due to significantly greater influence of TNF-α, early wakening, and pathological guilt. IL-6 and its downstream impact on TNF-α, and IFN-γ, could offer novel targets for treatment if offered at the relevant phenotypic profile including those with depression. Future targeted experimental studies of immune-based therapies are now needed.

The heterogeneity of attenuated and brief limited psychotic symptoms: association of contents with age, sex, country, religion, comorbidities, and functioning

Introduction

The Attenuated Psychosis Symptoms (APS) syndrome mostly represents the ultra-high-risk state of psychosis but, as does the Brief Intermittent Psychotic Symptoms (BIPS) syndrome, shows a large variance in conversion rates. This may be due to the heterogeneity of APS/BIPS that may be related to the effects of culture, sex, age, and other psychiatric morbidities. Thus, we investigated the different thematic contents of APS and their association with sex, age, country, religion, comorbidity, and functioning to gain a better understanding of the psychosis-risk syndrome.

Method

A sample of 232 clinical high-risk subjects according to the ultra-high risk and basic symptom criteria was recruited as part of a European study conducted in Germany, Italy, Switzerland, and Finland. Case vignettes, originally used for supervision of inclusion criteria, were investigated for APS/BIPS contents, which were compared for sex, age, country, religion, functioning, and comorbidities using chi-squared tests and regression analyses.

Result

We extracted 109 different contents, mainly of APS (96.8%): 63 delusional, 29 hallucinatory, and 17 speech-disorganized contents. Only 20 contents (18.3%) were present in at least 5% of the sample, with paranoid and referential ideas being the most frequent. Thirty-one (28.5%) contents, in particular, bizarre ideas and perceptual abnormalities, demonstrated an association with age, country, comorbidity, or functioning, with regression models of country and obsessive-compulsive disorders explaining most of the variance: 55.8 and 38.3%, respectively. Contents did not differ between religious groups.

Conclusion

Psychosis-risk patients report a wide range of different contents of APS/BIPS, underlining the psychopathological heterogeneity of this group but also revealing a potential core set of contents. Compared to earlier reports on North-American samples, our maximum prevalence rates of contents were considerably lower; this likely being related to a stricter rating of APS/BIPS and cultural influences, in particular, higher schizotypy reported in North-America. The various associations of some APS/BIPS contents with country, age, comorbidities, and functioning might moderate their clinical severity and, consequently, the related risk for psychosis and/or persistent functional disability.

The role of inflammation in the prospective associations between early childhood sleep problems and ADHD at 10 years: findings from a UK birth cohort study

BACKGROUND

Several underlying mechanisms potentially account for the link between sleep and attention deficit and hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), including inflammation. However, studies so far have been cross sectional. We investigate (a) the association between early childhood sleep and probable ADHD diagnosis in childhood and (b) whether childhood circulating inflammatory markers mediate these prospective associations.

METHODS

Data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children were available for 7,658 10-year-old children. Parent-reported sleep duration, night awakening frequency and regular sleep routines were collected at 3.5 years. The Development and Wellbeing Assessment was administered to capture children with clinically relevant ADHD symptoms, or probable ADHD diagnosis. Blood samples were collected at 9 years, from which two inflammatory markers were obtained [interleukin-6 (IL-6) and C-reactive protein (CRP)]. Logistic regression analyses were applied to investigate the associations between sleep variables at 3.5 years and probable ADHD diagnosis at 10 years. Further, path analysis was applied to examine the potential mediating role of inflammation at 9 years (as measured by CRP and IL-6) in the associations between early sleep and ADHD at 10 years.

RESULTS

Less regular sleep routines (OR = 0.51, 95% CI = 0.28-0.93, p = .029), shorter nighttime sleep (OR = 0.70, 95% CI = 0.56-0.89, p = .004) and higher night awakening frequency (OR = 1.27, 95% CI = 1.06-1.52, p = .009) at 3.5 years were associated with higher odds of ADHD at 10 years. Further, IL-6 at 9 years, but not CRP, mediated the association between irregular sleep routines and ADHD (bias-corrected estimate, -0.002; p = .005) and between night awakening and ADHD (bias-corrected estimate, 0.002; p = .003).

CONCLUSIONS

Several sleep problems in early childhood constitute a risk factor for probable ADHD diagnosis at 10 years. Further, these associations are partially mediated by IL-6 at 9 years. These results open a new research vista to the pathophysiology of ADHD and highlight sleep and inflammation as potential preventative targets for ADHD.

Personality traits as risk factors for relapse or recurrence in major depression: a systematic review

Background

Major depressive disorder (MDD) is highly recurrent. Identifying risk factors for relapse in depression is essential to improve prevention plans and therapeutic outcomes. Personality traits and personality disorders are widely considered to impact outcomes in MDD. We aimed to evaluate the role of personality aspects in the risk of relapse and recurrence in MDD.

Method

A PROSPERO-registered systematic review was conducted using Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, Web of Science and CINAHL as data sources, together with hand searching of four journals over the five years till 2022. There was independent abstract selection, quality assessment and data extraction from each study.

Results

Twenty two studies me t eligibility criteria involving 12,393 participants. Neurotic personality features are significantly associated with the risk of relapse and recurrence of depression, though the data is not uniform. There is some, though limited, evidence that borderline, obsessive-compulsive and dependent personality traits or disorders increase the risk for relapse in depression.

Limitations

The small number, in addition to the methodological heterogeneity of the included studies, did not allow further analysis, such as meta-analysis.

Conclusion

People with high neuroticism and dependent personality traits, borderline personality disorder or obsessive-compulsive personality disorder, compared to those without, may be at a higher risk of experiencing relapse or recurrence of MDD. Specific and targeted interventions may potentially reduce relapse and recurrence rates in these groups and could improve outcomes.

Systematic review registration

https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=235919, identifier: CRD42021235919.

Impact of anxiety and depression across childhood and adolescence on adverse outcomes in young adulthood: a UK birth cohort study

BACKGROUND

Little is still known about the long-term impact of childhood and adolescent persistent depression and anxiety in adulthood.

AIMS

To investigate the impact of persistent anxiety, depression, and comorbid anxiety and depression across childhood and adolescence on the development of multiple adverse outcomes in young adulthood.

METHOD

This study used data from 8122 participants in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children cohort. The Development and Well-Being Assessment (DAWBA) examined child anxiety and depression symptomatology. The DAWBA generalised anxiety and mood subscales at 8, 10 and 13 years were selected, and a measure of comorbid anxiety and depression symptoms was created at each time point. Further, several mental and physical health, substance misuse and education/employment problems were assessed at 24 years. Latent class growth analyses were used to detect trajectories of anxiety, depression and comorbid anxiety and depression; and logistic regression to examine how persistent anxiety, depression or both were associated with adverse outcomes at 24 years.

RESULTS

All three classes with persistent anxiety, depression or both were significantly associated with presenting with any mental health problems and any education/employment problem. Persistent high levels of depression and high levels of comorbid anxiety and depression, but not persistent high anxiety, were significantly associated with any physical health problem. High levels of comorbid anxiety and depression was the only DAWBA domain significantly associated with substance misuse; and overall, this was the domain that exerted the greatest negative impact, as it presented the highest odd ratio values.

CONCLUSIONS

Children and adolescents with comorbid anxiety and depression are at the highest risk for having more adverse outcomes at 24 years.

Cognitive function in early-phase schizophrenia-spectrum disorder: IQ subtypes, brain volume and immune markers

BACKGROUND

Evidence suggests that cognitive subtypes exist in schizophrenia that may reflect different neurobiological trajectories. We aimed to identify whether IQ-derived cognitive subtypes are present in early-phase schizophrenia-spectrum disorder and examine their relationship with brain structure and markers of neuroinflammation.

METHOD

161 patients with recent-onset schizophrenia spectrum disorder (<5 years) were recruited. Estimated premorbid and current IQ were calculated using the Wechsler Test of Adult Reading and a 4-subtest WAIS-III. Cognitive subtypes were identified with k-means clustering. Freesurfer was used to analyse 3.0 T MRI. Blood samples were analysed for hs-CRP, IL-1RA, IL-6 and TNF-α.

RESULTS

Three subtypes were identified indicating preserved (PIQ), deteriorated (DIQ) and compromised (CIQ) IQ. Absolute total brain volume was significantly smaller in CIQ compared to PIQ and DIQ, and intracranial volume was smaller in CIQ than PIQ (F(2, 124) = 6.407, p = 0.002) indicative of premorbid smaller brain size in the CIQ group. CIQ had higher levels of hs-CRP than PIQ (F(2, 131) = 5.01, p = 0.008). PIQ showed differentially impaired processing speed and verbal learning compared to IQ-matched healthy controls.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings add validity of a neurodevelopmental subtype of schizophrenia identified by comparing estimated premorbid and current IQ and characterised by smaller premorbid brain volume and higher measures of low-grade inflammation (CRP).

Psychosis brain subtypes validated in first-episode cohorts and related to illness remission: results from the PHENOM consortium

Using machine learning, we recently decomposed the neuroanatomical heterogeneity of established schizophrenia to discover two volumetric subgroups-a 'lower brain volume' subgroup (SG1) and an 'higher striatal volume' subgroup (SG2) with otherwise normal brain structure. In this study, we investigated whether the MRI signatures of these subgroups were also already present at the time of the first-episode of psychosis (FEP) and whether they were related to clinical presentation and clinical remission over 1-, 3-, and 5-years. We included 572 FEP and 424 healthy controls (HC) from 4 sites (Sao Paulo, Santander, London, Melbourne) of the PHENOM consortium. Our prior MRI subgrouping models (671 participants; USA, Germany, and China) were applied to both FEP and HC. Participants were assigned into 1 of 4 categories: subgroup 1 (SG1), subgroup 2 (SG2), no subgroup membership ('None'), and mixed SG1 + SG2 subgroups ('Mixed'). Voxel-wise analyses characterized SG1 and SG2 subgroups. Supervised machine learning analyses characterized baseline and remission signatures related to SG1 and SG2 membership. The two dominant patterns of 'lower brain volume' in SG1 and 'higher striatal volume' (with otherwise normal neuromorphology) in SG2 were identified already at the first episode of psychosis. SG1 had a significantly higher proportion of FEP (32%) vs. HC (19%) than SG2 (FEP, 21%; HC, 23%). Clinical multivariate signatures separated the SG1 and SG2 subgroups (balanced accuracy = 64%; p < 0.0001), with SG2 showing higher education but also greater positive psychosis symptoms at first presentation, and an association with symptom remission at 1-year, 5-year, and when timepoints were combined. Neuromorphological subtypes of schizophrenia are already evident at illness onset, separated by distinct clinical presentations, and differentially associated with subsequent remission. These results suggest that the subgroups may be underlying risk phenotypes that could be targeted in future treatment trials and are critical to consider when interpreting neuroimaging literature.

Disentangling heterogeneity of psychosis expression in the general population: sex-specific moderation effects of environmental risk factors on symptom networks

BACKGROUND

Psychosis expression in the general population may reflect a behavioral manifestation of the risk for psychotic disorder. It can be conceptualized as an interconnected system of psychotic and affective experiences; a so-called 'symptom network'. Differences in demographics, as well as exposure to adversities and risk factors, may produce substantial heterogeneity in symptom networks, highlighting potential etiological divergence in psychosis risk.

METHODS

To explore this idea in a data-driven way, we employed a novel recursive partitioning approach in the 2007 English National Survey of Psychiatric Morbidity (N = 7242). We sought to identify 'network phenotypes' by explaining heterogeneity in symptom networks through potential moderators, including age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, childhood abuse, separation from parents, bullying, domestic violence, cannabis use, and alcohol.

RESULTS

Sex was the primary source of heterogeneity in symptom networks. Additional heterogeneity was explained by interpersonal trauma (childhood abuse and domestic violence) in women and domestic violence, cannabis use, ethnicity in men. Among women, especially those exposed to early interpersonal trauma, an affective loading within psychosis may have distinct relevance. Men, particularly those from minority ethnic groups, demonstrated a strong network connection between hallucinatory experiences and persecutory ideation.

CONCLUSION

Symptom networks of psychosis expression in the general population are highly heterogeneous. The structure of symptom networks seems to reflect distinct sex-related adversities, etiologies, and mechanisms of symptom-expression. Disentangling the complex interplay of sex, minority ethnic group status, and other risk factors may help optimize early intervention and prevention strategies in psychosis.

Five-year illness trajectories across racial groups in the UK following a first episode psychosis

PURPOSE

Psychosis disproportionally affects ethnic minority groups in high-income countries, yet evidence of disparities in outcomes following intensive early intervention service (EIS) for First Episode Psychosis (FEP) is less conclusive. We investigated 5-year clinical and social outcomes of young people with FEP from different racial groups following EIS care.

METHOD

Data were analysed from the UK-wide NIHR SUPEREDEN study. The sample at baseline (n = 978) included White (n = 750), Black (n = 71), and Asian (n = 157) individuals, assessed during the 3 years of EIS, and up to 2 years post-discharge (n = 296; Black [n = 23]; Asian [n = 52] and White [n = 221]). Outcome trajectories were modelled for psychosis symptoms (positive, negative, and general), functioning, and depression, using linear mixed effect models (with random intercept and slopes), whilst controlling for social deprivation. Discharge service was also explored across racial groups, 2 years following EIS.

RESULTS

Variation in linear growth over time was accounted for by racial group status for psychosis symptoms-positive (95% CI [0.679, 1.235]), negative (95% CI [0.315, 0.783]), and general (95% CI [1.961, 3.428])-as well as for functioning (95% CI [11.212, 17.677]) and depressive symptoms (95% CI [0.261, 0.648]). Social deprivation contributed to this variance. Black individuals experienced greater levels of deprivation (p < 0.001, 95% CI [0.187, 0.624]). Finally, there was a greater likelihood for Asian (OR = 3.04; 95% CI [2.050, 4.498]) and Black individuals (OR = 2.47; 95% CI [1.354, 4.520]) to remain in secondary care by follow-up.

CONCLUSION

Findings suggest variations in long-term clinical and social outcomes following EIS across racial groups; social deprivation contributed to this variance. Black and Asian individuals appear to make less improvement in long-term recovery and are less likely to be discharged from mental health services. Replication is needed in large, complete data, to fully understand disparities and blind spots to care.

Transdiagnostic structural neuroimaging features in depression and psychosis: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Previous research suggests that there may be similarities in structural brain changes seen in patients with depression and psychosis compared to healthy controls. However, there is yet no systematic review collating studies comparing structural brain changes in depression and psychosis. Establishing shared and specific neuroanatomical features could aid the investigation of underlying biological processes.

AIMS

To identify structural neuroimaging similarities and differences between patients with depression and psychosis.

METHOD

We searched PubMed, PsychInfo, Embase, NICE Evidence, Medline and the Cochrane Library were searched from inception to 30/06/2021 using relevant subject headings (controlled vocabularies) and search syntax. Papers were assessed for quality using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale.

RESULTS

Five-hundred and twenty papers were retrieved, seven met inclusion criteria. In narrative collation of results, grey matter volume (GMV) reductions were found in the medial frontal gyrus (MFG), hippocampus and left-sided posterior subgenual prefrontal cortex in both psychosis and depression. GMV reductions affected more brain regions in psychosis, including in the insula and thalamus. White matter volume (WMV) decline was found in both depression and psychosis. Reduced fractional anisotropy (FA) was more commonly seen in depression.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest potential transdiagnostic patterns of GMV and WMV reductions in areas including the MFG, hippocampus, and left-sided posterior subgenual prefrontal cortex. These could be investigated as a future biomarker of transdiagnostic signature across mental illnesses. However, due to the limited number and poor quality of studies future research in large samples and harmonised imaging data is first needed.

Protocol for the Psychosis Immune Mechanism Stratified Medicine (PIMS) trial: a randomised double-blind placebo-controlled trial of single-dose tocilizumab in patients with psychosis

INTRODUCTION

Evidence suggests a potentially causal role of interleukin 6 (IL-6), a pleiotropic cytokine that generally promotes inflammation, in the pathogenesis of psychosis. However, no interventional studies in patients with psychosis, stratified using inflammatory markers, have been conducted to assess the therapeutic potential of targeting IL-6 in psychosis and to elucidate potential mechanism of effect. Tocilizumab is a humanised monoclonal antibody targeting the IL-6 receptor to inhibit IL-6 signalling, licensed in the UK for treatment of rheumatoid arthritis. The primary objective of this study is to test whether IL-6 contributes to the pathogenesis of first episode psychosis and to examine potential mechanisms by which IL-6 affects psychotic symptoms. A secondary objective is to examine characteristics of inflammation-associated psychosis.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A proof-of-concept study employing a randomised, parallel-group, double-blind, placebo-controlled design testing the effect of IL-6 inhibition on anhedonia in patients with psychosis. Approximately 60 participants with a diagnosis of schizophrenia and related psychotic disorders (ICD-10 codes F20, F22, F25, F28, F29) with evidence of low-grade inflammation (IL-6≥0.7 pg/mL) will receive either one intravenous infusion of tocilizumab (4.0 mg/kg; max 800 mg) or normal saline. Psychiatric measures and blood samples will be collected at baseline, 7, 14 and 28 days post infusion. Cognitive and neuroimaging data will be collected at baseline and 14 days post infusion. In addition, approximately 30 patients with psychosis without evidence of inflammation (IL-6<0.7 pg/mL) and 30 matched healthy controls will be recruited to complete identical baseline assessments to allow for comparison of the characteristic features of inflammation-associated psychosis.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study is sponsored by the University of Bristol and has been approved by the Cambridge East Research Ethics Committee (reference: 22/EE/0010; IRAS project ID: 301682). Study findings will be published in peer-review journals. Findings will also be disseminated by scientific presentation and other means.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN23256704.

Cognitive Remediation Works But How Should We Provide It? An Adaptive Randomized Controlled Trial of Delivery Methods Using a Patient Nominated Recovery Outcome in First-Episode Participants

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS

Cognitive remediation (CR) benefits cognition and functioning in psychosis but we do not know the optimal level of therapist contact, so we evaluated the potential benefits of different CR modes.

STUDY DESIGN

A multi-arm, multi-center, single-blinded, adaptive trial of therapist-supported CR. Participants from 11 NHS early intervention psychosis services were independently randomized to Independent, Group, One-to-One, or Treatment-as-usual (TAU). The primary outcome was functional recovery (Goal Attainment Scale [GAS]) at 15-weeks post randomization. Independent and TAU arms were closed after an interim analysis, and three informative contrasts tested (Group vs One-to-One, Independent vs TAU, Group + One-to-One vs TAU). Health economic analyses considered the cost per Quality Adjusted Life Year (QALY). All analyses used intention-to-treat principles.

STUDY RESULTS

We analyzed 377 participants (65 Independent, 134 Group, 112 One-to-One, 66 TAU). GAS did not differ for Group vs One-to-One: Cohen's d: 0.07, -0.25 to 0.40 95% CI, P = .655; Independent vs TAU: Cohen's d: 0.07, -0.41 to 0.55 95% CI, P = .777. GAS and the cognitive score improved for Group + One-to-One vs TAU favoring CR (GAS: Cohen's d: 0.57, 0.19-0.96 95% CI, P = .003; Cognitive score: Cohens d: 0.28, 0.07-0.48 95% CI, P = .008). The QALY costs were £4306 for Group vs TAU and £3170 for One-to-One vs TAU. Adverse events did not differ between treatment methods and no serious adverse events were related to treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Both active therapist methods provided cost-effective treatment benefiting functional recovery in early psychosis and should be adopted within services. Some individuals benefited more than others so needs further investigation.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN14678860 https://doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN14678860Now closed.

The non-specific nature of mental health and structural brain outcomes following childhood trauma

BACKGROUND

Childhood trauma (CT) is associated with an increased risk of mental health disorders; however, it is unknown whether this represents a diagnosis-specific risk factor for specific psychopathology mediated by structural brain changes. Our aim was to explore whether (i) a predictive CT pattern for transdiagnostic psychopathology exists, and whether (ii) CT can differentiate between distinct diagnosis-dependent psychopathology. Furthermore, we aimed to identify the association between CT, psychopathology and brain structure.

METHODS

We used multivariate pattern analysis in data from 643 participants of the Personalised Prognostic Tools for Early Psychosis Management study (PRONIA), including healthy controls (HC), recent onset psychosis (ROP), recent onset depression (ROD), and patients clinically at high-risk for psychosis (CHR). Participants completed structured interviews and self-report measures including the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire, SCID diagnostic interview, BDI-II, PANSS, Schizophrenia Proneness Instrument, Structured Interview for Prodromal Symptoms and structural MRI, analyzed by voxel-based morphometry.

RESULTS

(i) Patients and HC could be distinguished by their CT pattern with a reasonable precision [balanced accuracy of 71.2% (sensitivity = 72.1%, specificity = 70.4%, p ≤ 0.001]. (ii) Subdomains 'emotional neglect' and 'emotional abuse' were most predictive for CHR and ROP, while in ROD 'physical abuse' and 'sexual abuse' were most important. The CT pattern was significantly associated with the severity of depressive symptoms in ROD, ROP, and CHR, as well as with the PANSS total and negative domain scores in the CHR patients. No associations between group-separating CT patterns and brain structure were found.

CONCLUSIONS

These results indicate that CT poses a transdiagnostic risk factor for mental health disorders, possibly related to depressive symptoms. While differences in the quality of CT exposure exist, diagnostic differentiation was not possible suggesting a multi-factorial pathogenesis.

Predicting treatment resistance from first-episode psychosis using routinely collected clinical information

Around a quarter of people who experience a first episode of psychosis (FEP) will develop treatment-resistant schizophrenia (TRS), but there are currently no established clinically useful methods to predict this from baseline. We aimed to explore the predictive potential for clozapine use as a proxy for TRS of routinely collected, objective biomedical predictors at FEP onset, and to externally validate the model in a separate clinical sample of people with FEP. We developed and externally validated a forced-entry logistic regression risk prediction Model fOr cloZApine tReaTment, or MOZART, to predict up to 8-year risk of clozapine use from FEP using routinely recorded information including age, sex, ethnicity, triglycerides, alkaline phosphatase levels, and lymphocyte counts. We also produced a least-absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) based model, additionally including neutrophil count, smoking status, body mass index, and random glucose levels. The models were developed using data from two UK psychosis early intervention services (EIS) and externally validated in another UK EIS. Model performance was assessed via discrimination and calibration. We developed the models in 785 patients, and validated externally in 1,110 patients. Both models predicted clozapine use well at internal validation (MOZART: C 0.70; 95%CI 0.63,0.76; LASSO: 0.69; 95%CI 0.63,0.77). At external validation, discrimination performance reduced (MOZART: 0.63; 0.58,0.69; LASSO: 0.64; 0.58,0.69) but recovered after re-estimation of the lymphocyte predictor (C: 0.67; 0.62,0.73). Calibration plots showed good agreement between observed and predicted risk in the forced-entry model. We also present a decision-curve analysis and an online data visualisation tool. The use of routinely collected clinical information including blood-based biomarkers taken at FEP onset can help to predict the individual risk of clozapine use, and should be considered equally alongside other potentially useful information such as symptom scores in large-scale efforts to predict psychiatric outcomes.

Novel and emerging treatments for major depression

Depression is common, costly, debilitating, and associated with increased risk of suicide. It is one of the leading global public health problems. Although existing available pharmacological treatments can be effective, their onset of action can take up to 6 weeks, side-effects are common, and recovery can require treatment with multiple different agents. Although psychosocial interventions might also be recommended, more effective treatments than those currently available are needed for people with moderate or severe depression. In the past 10 years, treatment trials have developed and tested many new targeted interventions. In this Review, we assess novel and emerging biological treatments for major depressive disorder, evaluate their putative brain and body mechanisms, and highlight how close each might be to clinical use.

Rethinking Immunity and Cognition in Clinical High Risk for Psychosis

It is well known that schizophrenia is associated with cognitive impairment, reduced cortical grey matter and increased circulating concentrations of inflammatory cytokines. However, the relationship between these findings is not clear. We outline the influential neuroinflammatory hypotheses that raised cytokines provoke a damaging immune response in microglia that results in reduced grey matter and associated cognitive performance. We investigated whether such an interaction might be detectable in the prodromal period as illness emerges from the Clinical High Risk for Psychosis (CHR-P). Meta-analyses suggest that compared with controls, impaired cognition and reduced grey matter are already present by the prodrome and that greater decrements are present in those who later develop symptoms. In contrast, the few cytokine studies report no abnormalities in CHR-P except that interleukin-6 (IL-6) levels were raised versus controls and to a greater extent in the future patients, in one study. We noted that cognitive impairment and less cortical grey matter are more severe in schizophrenia than in affective disorders, but that increased cytokine levels are similarly prevalent across disorders. We found no studies correlating cytokine levels with cognitive impairment in CHR-P but such correlations seem unlikely given the minimal relationship reported in a recent meta-analysis of the many cytokine-cognition studies in established illness. From this and other evidence, we conclude that neuroinflammation is not a core feature of schizophrenia nor a substrate for reduced grey matter volume or cognitive function. We draw attention instead to the emerging evidence that brain-resident immune cells and signalling molecules such as Tregs and IL-6, which are influenced by schizophrenia risk genes, regulate and are necessary for the development and function of neuron-glia interaction. We suggest that cognitive impairment in schizophrenia can be seen as a convergence of genetic and immune-neurodevelopmental dysregulation whereas raised cytokines are a consequence of impaired Tregs control of systemic inflammation.

Heterogeneity in treatment outcomes and incomplete recovery in first episode psychosis: does one size fit all?

The heterogeneity in recovery outcomes for individuals with First Episode Psychosis (FEP) calls for a strong evidence base to inform practice at an individual level. Between 19-89% of young people with FEP have an incomplete recovery despite gold-standard evidence-based treatments, suggesting current service models, which adopt a 'one-size fits all' approach, may not be addressing the needs of many young people with psychosis. The lack of consistent terminology to define key concepts such as recovery and treatment resistance, the multidimensional nature of these concepts, and common comorbid symptoms are some of the challenges faced by the field in delineating heterogeneity in recovery outcomes. The lack of robust markers for incomplete recovery also results in potential delay in delivering prompt, and effective treatments to individuals at greatest risk. There is a clear need to adopt a stratified approach to care where interventions are targeted at subgroups of patients, and ultimately at the individual level. Novel machine learning, using large, representative data from a range of modalities, may aid in the parsing of heterogeneity, and provide greater precision and sophistication in identifying those on a pathway to incomplete recovery.

From co-morbidity to transdiagnostic potential and novel immunotherapies for psychosis

One of my first placements in psychiatry training was with the early intervention in psychosis services in Birmingham, in the late 1990's. It was in this context that I became aware of the frequency and importance of affective co- modbidity and lack of diagnostic certianty in early stages of develping severe mental illness. This challenged the established dichotomy between affective and non-affective severe mental illnesses, and has driven my work and thinking ever since- including that embracing the presence of affective symptoms in schizophrenia may open the door for new treatments. Understanding affective dysfunction as a potential intrisic component of developing psychotic disorders has also shown the potential for transdiagnostic symptoms with shared underlying biological processess, including immune dysfunction, related to remission and functional outcomes. Currently my work focuses on targeting the immune system to improve recovery in clinical trials, and further mechanistic studies that reach beyond traditional diagnostic catagories.

The psychosis metabolic risk calculator (PsyMetRiC) for young people with psychosis: International external validation and site-specific recalibration in two independent European samples

Background

Cardiometabolic dysfunction is common in young people with psychosis. Recently, the Psychosis Metabolic Risk Calculator (PsyMetRiC) was developed and externally validated in the UK, predicting up-to six-year risk of metabolic syndrome (MetS) from routinely collected data. The full-model includes age, sex, ethnicity, body-mass index, smoking status, prescription of metabolically-active antipsychotic medication, high-density lipoprotein, and triglyceride concentrations; the partial-model excludes biochemical predictors.

Methods

To move toward a future internationally-useful tool, we externally validated PsyMetRiC in two independent European samples. We used data from the PsyMetab (Lausanne, Switzerland) and PAFIP (Cantabria, Spain) cohorts, including participants aged 16-35y without MetS at baseline who had 1-6y follow-up. Predictive performance was assessed primarily via discrimination (C-statistic), calibration (calibration plots), and decision curve analysis. Site-specific recalibration was considered.

Findings

We included 1024 participants (PsyMetab n=558, male=62%, outcome prevalence=19%, mean follow-up=2.48y; PAFIP n=466, male=65%, outcome prevalence=14%, mean follow-up=2.59y). Discrimination was better in the full- compared with partial-model (PsyMetab=full-model C=0.73, 95% C.I., 0.68-0.79, partial-model C=0.68, 95% C.I., 0.62-0.74; PAFIP=full-model C=0.72, 95% C.I., 0.66-0.78; partial-model C=0.66, 95% C.I., 0.60-0.71). As expected, calibration plots revealed varying degrees of miscalibration, which recovered following site-specific recalibration. PsyMetRiC showed net benefit in both new cohorts, more so after recalibration.

Interpretation

The study provides evidence of PsyMetRiC's generalizability in Western Europe, although further local and international validation studies are required. In future, PsyMetRiC could help clinicians internationally to identify young people with psychosis who are at higher cardiometabolic risk, so interventions can be directed effectively to reduce long-term morbidity and mortality.

Funding

NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre (BRC-1215-20014); The Wellcome Trust (201486/Z/16/Z); Swiss National Research Foundation (320030-120686, 324730- 144064, and 320030-173211); The Carlos III Health Institute (CM20/00015, FIS00/3095, PI020499, PI050427, and PI060507); IDIVAL (INT/A21/10 and INT/A20/04); The Andalusian Regional Government (A1-0055-2020 and A1-0005-2021); SENY Fundacion Research (2005-0308007); Fundacion Marques de Valdecilla (A/02/07, API07/011); Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness and the European Fund for Regional Development (SAF2016-76046-R and SAF2013-46292-R).For the Spanish and French translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.