Climate biogeography of Arabidopsis thaliana: linking distribution models and individual variation

AIM

Patterns of individual variation are key to testing hypotheses about the mechanisms underlying biogeographic patterns. If species distributions are determined by environmental constraints, then populations near range margins may have reduced performance and be adapted to harsher environments. Model organisms are potentially important systems for biogeographical studies, given the available range-wide natural history collections, and the importance of providing biogeographical context to their genetic and phenotypic diversity.

LOCATION

Global.

TAXON

Arabidopsis thaliana ("Arabidopsis").

METHODS

We fit occurrence records to climate data, and then projected the distribution of Arabidopsis under last glacial maximum, current, and future climates. We confronted model predictions with individual performance measured on 2,194 herbarium specimens, and we asked whether predicted suitability was associated with life-history and genomic variation measured on ~900 natural accessions.

RESULTS

The most important climate variables constraining the Arabidopsis distribution were winter cold in northern and high elevation regions and summer heat in southern regions. Herbarium specimens from regions with lower habitat suitability in both northern and southern regions were smaller, supporting the hypothesis that the distribution of Arabidopsis is constrained by climate-associated factors. Climate anomalies partly explained interannual variation in herbarium specimen size, but these did not closely correspond to local limiting factors identified in the distribution model. Late-flowering genotypes were absent from the lowest suitability regions, suggesting slower life histories are only viable closer to the center of the realized niche. We identified glacial refugia farther north than previously recognized, as well as refugia concordant with previous population genetic findings. Lower latitude populations, known to be genetically distinct, are most threatened by future climate change. The recently colonized range of Arabidopsis was well-predicted by our native-range model applied to certain regions but not others, suggesting it has colonized novel climates.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

Integration of distribution models with performance data from vast natural history collections is a route forward for testing biogeographical hypotheses about species distributions and their relationship with evolutionary fitness across large scales.

Survival, growth, and functional traits of tropical wet forest tree seedlings across an experimental soil moisture gradient in Puerto Rico

Droughts are predicted to become more frequent and intense in many tropical regions, which may cause shifts in plant community composition. Especially in diverse tropical communities, understanding how traits mediate demographic responses to drought can help provide insight into the effects of climate change on these ecosystems. To understand tropical tree responses to reduced soil moisture, we grew seedlings of eight species across an experimental soil moisture gradient at the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico. We quantified survival and growth over an 8-month period and characterized demographic responses in terms of tolerance to low soil moisture-defined as survival and growth rates under low soil moisture conditions-and sensitivity to variation in soil moisture-defined as more pronounced changes in demographic rates across the observed range of soil moisture. We then compared demographic responses with interspecific variation in a suite of 11 (root, stem, and leaf) functional traits, measured on individuals that survived the experiment. Lower soil moisture was associated with reduced survival and growth but traits mediated species-specific responses. Species with relatively conservative traits (e.g., high leaf mass per area), had higher survival at low soil moisture whereas species with more extensive root systems were more sensitive to soil moisture, in that they exhibited more pronounced changes in growth across the experimental soil moisture gradient. Our results suggest that increasing drought will favor species with more conservative traits that confer greater survival in low soil moisture conditions.

Hydraulic variability of tropical forests is largely independent of water availability

Tropical rainforest woody plants have been thought to have uniformly low resistance to hydraulic failure and to function near the edge of their hydraulic safety margin (HSM), making these ecosystems vulnerable to drought; however, this may not be the case. Using data collected at 30 tropical forest sites for three key traits associated with drought tolerance, we show that site-level hydraulic diversity of leaf turgor loss point, resistance to embolism (P50 ), and HSMs is high across tropical forests and largely independent of water availability. Species with high HSMs (>1 MPa) and low P50 values (< -2 MPa) are common across the wet and dry tropics. This high site-level hydraulic diversity, largely decoupled from water stress, could influence which species are favoured and become dominant under a drying climate. High hydraulic diversity could also make these ecosystems more resilient to variable rainfall regimes.

Water-limited environments affect the association between functional diversity and forest productivity

The link between biodiversity and ecosystem function can depend on environmental conditions. This contingency can impede our ability to predict how biodiversity-ecosystem function (BEF) relationships will respond to future environmental change, causing a clear need to explore the processes underlying shifts in BEF relationships across large spatial scales and broad environmental gradients. We compiled a dataset on five functional traits (maximum height, wood density, specific leaf area [SLA], seed size, and xylem vulnerability to embolism [P50]), covering 78%-90% of the tree species in the National Forest Inventory from Italy, to test (i) how a water limitation gradient shapes the functional composition and diversity of forests, (ii) how functional composition and diversity of trees relate to forest annual increment via mass ratio and complementarity effects, and (iii) how the relationship between functional diversity and annual increment varies between Mediterranean and temperate climate regions. Functional composition varied with water limitation; tree communities tended to have more conservative traits in sites with higher levels of water limitation. The response of functional diversity differed among traits and climatic regions but among temperate forest plots, we found a consistent increase of functional diversity with water limitation. Tree diversity was positively associated with annual increment of Italian forests through a combination of mass ratio and niche complementarity effects, but the relative importance of these effects depended on the trait and range of climate considered. Specifically, niche complementarity effects were more strongly associated with annual increment in the Mediterranean compared to temperate forests. Synthesis: Overall, our results suggest that biodiversity mediates forest annual increment under water-limited conditions by promoting beneficial interactions between species and complementarity in resource use. Our work highlights the importance of conserving functional diversity for future forest management to maintain forest annual increment under the expected increase in intensity and frequency of drought.

Basin-wide variation in tree hydraulic safety margins predicts the carbon balance of Amazon forests

Tropical forests face increasing climate risk1,2, yet our ability to predict their response to climate change is limited by poor understanding of their resistance to water stress. Although xylem embolism resistance thresholds (for example, [Formula: see text]50) and hydraulic safety margins (for example, HSM50) are important predictors of drought-induced mortality risk3-5, little is known about how these vary across Earth's largest tropical forest. Here, we present a pan-Amazon, fully standardized hydraulic traits dataset and use it to assess regional variation in drought sensitivity and hydraulic trait ability to predict species distributions and long-term forest biomass accumulation. Parameters [Formula: see text]50 and HSM50 vary markedly across the Amazon and are related to average long-term rainfall characteristics. Both [Formula: see text]50 and HSM50 influence the biogeographical distribution of Amazon tree species. However, HSM50 was the only significant predictor of observed decadal-scale changes in forest biomass. Old-growth forests with wide HSM50 are gaining more biomass than are low HSM50 forests. We propose that this may be associated with a growth-mortality trade-off whereby trees in forests consisting of fast-growing species take greater hydraulic risks and face greater mortality risk. Moreover, in regions of more pronounced climatic change, we find evidence that forests are losing biomass, suggesting that species in these regions may be operating beyond their hydraulic limits. Continued climate change is likely to further reduce HSM50 in the Amazon6,7, with strong implications for the Amazon carbon sink.

Hurricanes increase tropical forest vulnerability to drought

Rapid changes in climate and disturbance regimes, including droughts and hurricanes, are likely to influence tropical forests, but our understanding of the compound effects of disturbances on forest ecosystems is extremely limited. Filling this knowledge gap is necessary to elucidate the future of these ecosystems under a changing climate. We examined the relationship between hurricane response (damage, mortality, and resilience) and four hydraulic traits of 13 dominant woody species in a wet tropical forest subject to periodic hurricanes. Species with high resistance to embolisms (low P₅₀ values) and higher safety margins ( SMP50 ) were more resistant to immediate hurricane mortality and breakage, whereas species with higher hurricane resilience (rapid post-hurricane growth) had high capacitance and P₅₀ values and low SMP50 . During 26 yr of post-hurricane recovery, we found a decrease in community-weighted mean values for traits associated with greater drought resistance (leaf turgor loss point, P₅₀ , SMP50 ) and an increase in capacitance, which has been linked with lower drought resistance. Hurricane damage favors slow-growing, drought-tolerant species, whereas post-hurricane high resource conditions favor acquisitive, fast-growing but drought-vulnerable species, increasing forest productivity at the expense of drought tolerance and leading to higher overall forest vulnerability to drought.

ENM2020: A Free Online Course and Set of Resources on Modeling Species' Niches and Distributions

The field of distributional ecology has seen considerable recent attention, particularly surrounding the theory, protocols, and tools for Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) or Species Distribution Modeling (SDM). Such analyses have grown steadily over the past two decades—including a maturation of relevant theory and key concepts—but methodological consensus has yet to be reached. In response, and following an online course taught in Spanish in 2018, we designed a comprehensive English-language course covering much of the underlying theory and methods currently applied in this broad field. Here, we summarize that course, ENM2020, and provide links by which resources produced for it can be accessed into the future. ENM2020 lasted 43 weeks, with presentations from 52 instructors, who engaged with >2500 participants globally through >14,000 hours of viewing and >90,000 views of instructional video and question-and-answer sessions. Each major topic was introduced by an “Overview” talk, followed by more detailed lectures on subtopics. The hierarchical and modular format of the course permits updates, corrections, or alternative viewpoints, and generally facilitates revision and reuse, including the use of only the Overview lectures for introductory courses. All course materials are free and openly accessible (CC-BY license) to ensure these resources remain available to all interested in distributional ecology.

Functional recovery of secondary tropical forests

One-third of all Neotropical forests are secondary forests that regrow naturally after agricultural use through secondary succession. We need to understand better how and why succession varies across environmental gradients and broad geographic scales. Here, we analyze functional recovery using community data on seven plant characteristics (traits) of 1,016 forest plots from 30 chronosequence sites across the Neotropics. By analyzing communities in terms of their traits, we enhance understanding of the mechanisms of succession, assess ecosystem recovery, and use these insights to propose successful forest restoration strategies. Wet and dry forests diverged markedly for several traits that increase growth rate in wet forests but come at the expense of reduced drought tolerance, delay, or avoidance, which is important in seasonally dry forests. Dry and wet forests showed different successional pathways for several traits. In dry forests, species turnover is driven by drought tolerance traits that are important early in succession and in wet forests by shade tolerance traits that are important later in succession. In both forests, deciduous and compound-leaved trees decreased with forest age, probably because microclimatic conditions became less hot and dry. Our results suggest that climatic water availability drives functional recovery by influencing the start and trajectory of succession, resulting in a convergence of community trait values with forest age when vegetation cover builds up. Within plots, the range in functional trait values increased with age. Based on the observed successional trait changes, we indicate the consequences for carbon and nutrient cycling and propose an ecologically sound strategy to improve forest restoration success.

Edaphic heterogeneity and the evolutionary trajectory of Amazonian plant communities

We investigated how the phylogenetic structure of Amazonian plant communities varies along an edaphic gradient within the non-inundated forests. Forty localities were sampled on three terrain types representing two kinds of soil: clayey soils of a high base cation concentration derived from the Solimões formation, and loamy soils with lower base cation concentration derived from the Içá formation and alluvial terraces. Phylogenetic community metrics were calculated for each locality for ferns and palms both with ferns as one group and for each of three fern clades with a crown group age comparable to that of palms. Palm and fern communities showed significant and contrasting phylogenetic signals along the soil gradient. Fern species richness increased but standard effect size of mean pairwise distance (SES.MPD) and variation of pairwise distances (VPD) decreased with increasing soil base cation concentration. In contrast, palm communities were more species rich on less cation-rich soils and their SES.MPD increased with soil base cation concentration. Species turnover between the communities reflected the soil gradient slightly better when based on species occurrences than when phylogenetic distances between the species were considered. Each of the three fern subclades behaved differently from each other and from the entire fern clade. The fern clade whose phylogenetic patterns were most similar to those of palms also resembled palms in being most species-rich on cation-poor soils. The phylogenetic structuring of local plant communities varies along a soil base cation concentration gradient within non-inundated Amazonian rain forests. Lineages can show either similar or different phylogenetic community structure patterns and evolutionary trajectories, and we suggest this to be linked to their environmental adaptations. Consequently, geological heterogeneity can be expected to translate into a potentially highly diverse set of evolutionarily distinct community assembly pathways in Amazonia and elsewhere.

Hurricane-Induced Rainfall is a Stronger Predictor of Tropical Forest Damage in Puerto Rico Than Maximum Wind Speeds

Projected increases in cyclonic storm intensity under a warming climate will have profound effects on forests, potentially changing these ecosystems from carbon sinks to sources. Forecasting storm impacts on these ecosystems requires consideration of risk factors associated with storm meteorology, landscape structure, and forest attributes. Here we evaluate risk factors associated with damage severity caused by Hurricanes María and Irma across Puerto Rican forests. Using field and remote sensing data, total forest aboveground biomass (AGB) lost to the storms was estimated at 10.44 (±2.33) Tg, ca. 23% of island-wide pre-hurricane forest AGB. Storm-related rainfall was a stronger predictor of forest damage than maximum wind speeds. Soil water storage capacity was also an important risk factor, corroborating the influence of rainfall on forest damage. Expected increases of 20% in hurricane-associated rainfall in the North Atlantic highlight the need to consider how such shifts, together with high speed winds, will affect terrestrial ecosystems.

Genomics of sorghum local adaptation to a parasitic plant

Host-parasite coevolution can maintain high levels of genetic diversity in traits involved in species interactions. In many systems, host traits exploited by parasites are constrained by use in other functions, leading to complex selective pressures across space and time. Here, we study genome-wide variation in the staple crop Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench and its association with the parasitic weed Striga hermonthica (Delile) Benth., a major constraint to food security in Africa. We hypothesize that geographic selection mosaics across gradients of parasite occurrence maintain genetic diversity in sorghum landrace resistance. Suggesting a role in local adaptation to parasite pressure, multiple independent loss-of-function alleles at sorghum LOW GERMINATION STIMULANT 1 (LGS1) are broadly distributed among African landraces and geographically associated with S. hermonthica occurrence. However, low frequency of these alleles within S. hermonthica-prone regions and their absence elsewhere implicate potential trade-offs restricting their fixation. LGS1 is thought to cause resistance by changing stereochemistry of strigolactones, hormones that control plant architecture and below-ground signaling to mycorrhizae and are required to stimulate parasite germination. Consistent with trade-offs, we find signatures of balancing selection surrounding LGS1 and other candidates from analysis of genome-wide associations with parasite distribution. Experiments with CRISPR-Cas9-edited sorghum further indicate that the benefit of LGS1-mediated resistance strongly depends on parasite genotype and abiotic environment and comes at the cost of reduced photosystem gene expression. Our study demonstrates long-term maintenance of diversity in host resistance genes across smallholder agroecosystems, providing a valuable comparison to both industrial farming systems and natural communities.

Palm community transects and soil properties in western Amazonia

Western Amazonia is a global biodiversity hotspot that encompasses extensive variation in geologic, climatic, and biotic features. Palms (Arecaceae) are among the most diverse and iconic groups of plants in the region with more than 150 species that exhibit extraordinary variation of geographical distributions, regional abundance patterns, and life history strategies and growth forms, and provide myriad ecosystem services. Understanding the ecological and evolutionary drivers that underpin palm distribution and abundance patterns may shed light on the evolution and ecology of the tropical forest biomes more generally. Edaphic conditions, in particular, are increasingly recognized as critical drivers of tropical plant diversity and distributions but data deficiencies inhibit our understanding of plant–soil relationships at broad scales, especially in the tropics. We present data from 546, 0.25‐ha (5 × 500 m) georeferenced transects located throughout western Amazonia where all individual palms were identified, counted, and assigned to a life‐history stage. Several environmental covariates were recorded along each transect and surface soil samples were collected from multiple points in N = 464 of transects. Altogether, the transects include 532,602 individuals belonging to 135 species. Variation among transects in terms of palm species richness and abundance is associated with major habitat types and soil properties. The soil properties including pH, acidity, all macronutrients for all samples, and texture, carbon, nitrogen, and micronutrients for some transects vary substantially across the study area, providing insight to broad‐scale variation of tropical surface soils. The data provided here will help advance our understanding of plant distributions and abundance patterns, and associations with soil conditions. No copyright restrictions are associated with this data set but please cite this paper if data are used for publication.

Soil fertility and flood regime are correlated with phylogenetic structure of Amazonian palm communities

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Identifying the processes that generate and maintain biodiversity requires understanding of how evolutionary processes interact with abiotic conditions to structure communities. Edaphic gradients are strongly associated with floristic patterns but, compared with climatic gradients, have received relatively little attention. We asked (1) How does the phylogenetic composition of palm communities vary along edaphic gradients within major habitat types? and (2) To what extent are phylogenetic patterns determined by (a) habitat specialists, (b) small versus large palms, and (c) hyperdiverse genera?

METHODS

We paired data on palm community composition from 501 transects of 0.25 ha located in two main habitat types (non-inundated uplands and seasonally inundated floodplains) in western Amazonian rain forests with information on soil chemistry, climate, phylogeny and metrics of plant size. We focused on exchangeable base concentration (cmol+ kg-1) as a metric of soil fertility and a floristic index of inundation intensity. We used a null model approach to quantify the standard effect size of mean phylogenetic distance for each transect (a metric of phylogenetic community composition) and related this value to edaphic variables using generalized linear mixed models, including a term for spatial autocorrelation.

KEY RESULTS

Overall, we recorded 112 008 individuals belonging to 110 species. Palm communities in non-inundated upland transects (but not floodplain transects) were more phylogenetically clustered in areas of low soil fertility, measured as exchangeable base concentration. In contrast, floodplain transects with more severe flood regimes (as inferred from floristic structure) tended to be phylogenetically clustered. Nearly half of the species recorded (44 %) were upland specialists while 18 % were floodplain specialists. In both habitat types, phylogenetic clustering was largely due to the co-occurrence of small-sized habitat specialists belonging to two hyperdiverse genera (Bactris and Geonoma).

CONCLUSIONS

Edaphic conditions are associated with the phylogenetic community structure of palms across western Amazonia, and different factors (specifically, soil fertility and inundation intensity) appear to underlie diversity patterns in non-inundated upland versus floodplain habitats. By linking edaphic gradients with palm community phylogenetic structure, our study reinforces the need to integrate edaphic conditions in eco-evolutionary studies in order to better understand the processes that generate and maintain tropical forest diversity. Our results suggest a role for edaphic niche conservatism in the evolution and distribution of Amazonian palms, a finding with potential relevance for other clades.

Effects of biotic interactions on tropical tree performance depend on abiotic conditions

Predicting biotic responses to environmental change requires understanding the joint effects of abiotic conditions and biotic interactions on community dynamics. One major challenge is to separate the potentially confounding effects of abiotic environmental variation and local biotic interactions on individual performance. The stress gradient hypothesis (SGH) addresses this issue directly by predicting that the effects of biotic interactions on performance become more positive as the abiotic environment becomes more stressful. It is unclear, however, how the predictions of the SGH apply to plants of differing functional strategies in diverse communities. We asked (1) how the effect of crowding on performance (growth and survival) of trees varies across a precipitation gradient, and (2) how functional strategies (as measured by two key traits: wood density and leaf mass per area, LMA) mediate average demographic rates and responses to crowding across the gradient. We built trait-based neighborhood models of growth and survival across a regional precipitation gradient where increasing precipitation is associated with reduced abiotic stress. In total, our dataset comprised ~170,000 individual trees belonging to 252 species. The effect of crowding on tree performance varied across the gradient; crowding negatively affected growth across plots and positively affected survival in the wettest plot. Functional traits mediated average demographic rates across the gradient, but we did not find clear evidence that the strength of these responses depends on species' traits. Our study lends support to the SGH and demonstrates how a trait-based perspective can advance these concepts by linking the diversity of species interactions with functional variation across abiotic gradients.

Environmental heterogeneity and biotic interactions mediate climate impacts on tropical forest regeneration

Predicting the fate of tropical forests under a changing climate requires understanding species responses to climatic variability and extremes. Seedlings may be particularly vulnerable to climatic stress given low stored resources and undeveloped roots; they also portend the potential effects of climate change on future forest composition. Here we use data for ca. 50,000 tropical seedlings representing 25 woody species to assess (i) the effects of interannual variation in rainfall and solar radiation between 2007 and 2016 on seedling survival over 9 years in a subtropical forest; and (ii) how spatial heterogeneity in three environmental factors-soil moisture, understory light, and conspecific neighborhood density-modulate these responses. Community-wide seedling survival was not sensitive to interannual rainfall variability but interspecific variation in these responses was large, overwhelming the average community response. In contrast, community-wide responses to solar radiation were predominantly positive. Spatial heterogeneity in soil moisture and conspecific density were the predominant and most consistent drivers of seedling survival, with the majority of species exhibiting greater survival at low conspecific densities and positive or nonlinear responses to soil moisture. This environmental heterogeneity modulated impacts of rainfall and solar radiation. Negative conspecific effects were amplified during rainy years and at dry sites, whereas the positive effects of radiation on survival were more pronounced for seedlings existing at high understory light levels. These results demonstrate that environmental heterogeneity is not only the main driver of seedling survival in this forest but also plays a central role in buffering or exacerbating impacts of climate fluctuations on forest regeneration. Since seedlings represent a key bottleneck in the demographic cycle of trees, efforts to predict the long-term effects of a changing climate on tropical forests must take into account this environmental heterogeneity and how its effects on regeneration dynamics play out in long-term stand dynamics.

Interannual variations in needle and sapwood traits of Pinus edulis branches under an experimental drought

In the southwestern USA, recent large-scale die-offs of conifers raise the question of their resilience and mortality under droughts. To date, little is known about the interannual structural response to droughts. We hypothesized that piñon pines (Pinus edulis) respond to drought by reducing the drop of leaf water potential in branches from year to year through needle morphological adjustments. We tested our hypothesis using a 7-year experiment in central New Mexico with three watering treatments (irrigated, normal, and rain exclusion). We analyzed how variation in "evaporative structure" (needle length, stomatal diameter, stomatal density, stomatal conductance) responded to watering treatment and interannual climate variability. We further analyzed annual functional adjustments by comparing yearly addition of needle area (LA) with yearly addition of sapwood area (SA) and distance to tip (d), defining the yearly ratios SA:LA and SA:LA/d. Needle length (l) increased with increasing winter and monsoon water supply, and showed more interannual variability when the soil was drier. Stomatal density increased with dryness, while stomatal diameter was reduced. As a result, anatomical maximal stomatal conductance was relatively invariant across treatments. SA:LA and SA:LA/d showed significant differences across treatments and contrary to our expectation were lower with reduced water input. Within average precipitation ranges, the response of these ratios to soil moisture was similar across treatments. However, when extreme soil drought was combined with high VPD, needle length, SA:LA and SA:LA/d became highly nonlinear, emphasizing the existence of a response threshold of combined high VPD and dry soil conditions. In new branch tissues, the response of annual functional ratios to water stress was immediate (same year) and does not attempt to reduce the drop of water potential. We suggest that unfavorable evaporative structural response to drought is compensated by dynamic stomatal control to maximize photosynthesis rates.

Associations among arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi and seedlings are predicted to change with tree successional status

Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi in the soil may influence tropical tree dynamics and forest succession. The mechanisms are poorly understood, because the functional characteristics and abundances of tree species and AM fungi are likely to be codependent. We used generalized joint attribute modeling to evaluate if AM fungi are associated with three forest community metrics for a sub-tropical montane forest in Puerto Rico. The metrics chosen to reflect changes during forest succession are the abundance of seedlings of different successional status, the amount of foliar damage on seedlings of different successional status, and community-weighted mean functional trait values (adult specific leaf area [SLA], adult wood density, and seed mass). We used high-throughput DNA sequencing to identify fungal operational taxonomic units (OTUs) in the soil. Model predictions showed that seedlings of mid- and late-successional species had less leaf damage when the 12 most common AM fungi were abundant compared to when these fungi were absent. We also found that seedlings of mid-successional species were predicted to be more abundant when the 12 most common AM fungi were abundant compared to when these fungi were absent. In contrast, early-successional tree seedlings were predicted to be less abundant when the 12 most common AM fungi were abundant compared to when these fungi were absent. Finally, we showed that, among the 12 most common AM fungi, different AM fungi were correlated with functional trait characteristics of early- or late-successional species. Together, these results suggest that early-successional species might not rely as much as mid- and late-successional species on AM fungi, and AM fungi might accelerate forest succession.

Demographic drivers of functional composition dynamics

Mechanisms of community assembly and ecosystem function are often analyzed using community-weighted mean trait values (CWMs). We present a novel conceptual framework to quantify the contribution of demographic processes (i.e., growth, recruitment, and mortality) to temporal changes in CWMs. We used this framework to analyze mechanisms of secondary succession in wet tropical forests in Mexico. Seed size increased over time, reflecting a trade-off between colonization by small seeds early in succession, to establishment by large seeds later in succession. Specific leaf area (SLA) and leaf phosphorus content decreased over time, reflecting a trade-off between fast growth early in succession vs. high survival late in succession. On average, CWM shifts were driven mainly (70%) by growth of surviving trees that comprise the bulk of standing biomass, then mortality (25%), and weakly by recruitment (5%). Trait shifts of growing and recruiting trees mirrored the CWM trait shifts, and traits of dying trees did not change during succession, indicating that these traits are important for recruitment and growth, but not for mortality, during the first 30 yr of succession. Identifying the demographic drivers of functional composition change links population dynamics to community change, and enhances insights into mechanisms of succession.

Climate-change-induced range shifts of three allergenic ragweeds (Ambrosia L.) in Europe and their potential impact on human health

Invasive allergenic plant species may have severe health-related impacts. In this study we aim to predict the effects of climate change on the distribution of three allergenic ragweed species (Ambrosia spp.) in Europe and discuss the potential associated health impact. We built species distribution models based on presence-only data for three ragweed species, using MAXENT software. Future climatic habitat suitability was modeled under two IPCC climate change scenarios (RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5). We quantify the extent of the increase in 'high allergy risk' (HAR) areas, i.e., parts of Europe with climatic conditions corresponding to the highest quartile (25%) of present day habitat suitability for each of the three species. We estimate that by year 2100, the distribution range of all three ragweed species increases towards Northern and Eastern Europe under all climate scenarios. HAR areas will expand in Europe by 27-100%, depending on species and climate scenario. Novel HAR areas will occur mostly in Denmark, France, Germany, Russia and the Baltic countries, and overlap with densely populated cities such as Paris and St. Petersburg. We conclude that areas in Europe affected by severe ragweed associated allergy problems are likely to increase substantially by year 2100, affecting millions of people. To avoid this, management strategies must be developed that restrict ragweed dispersal and establishment of new populations. Precautionary efforts should limit the spread of ragweed seeds and reduce existing populations. Only by applying cross-countries management plans can managers mitigate future health risks and economical consequences of a ragweed expansion in Europe.

Do community-weighted mean functional traits reflect optimal strategies?

The notion that relationships between community-weighted mean (CWM) traits (i.e. plot-level trait values weighted by species abundances) and environmental conditions reflect selection towards locally optimal phenotypes is challenged by the large amount of interspecific trait variation typically found within ecological communities. Reconciling these contrasting patterns is a key to advancing predictive theories of functional community ecology. We combined data on geographical distributions and three traits (wood density, leaf mass per area and maximum height) of 173 tree species in Puerto Rico. We tested the hypothesis that species are more likely to occur where their trait values are more similar to the local CWM trait values (the'CWM-optimality' hypothesis) by comparing species occurrence patterns (as a proxy for fitness) with the functional composition of forest plots across a precipitation gradient. While 70% of the species supported CWM-optimality for at least one trait, nearly 25% significantly opposed it for at least one trait, thereby contributing to local functional diversity. The majority (85%) of species that opposed CWM-optimality did so only for one trait and few species opposed CWM-optimality in multivariate trait space. Our study suggests that constraints to local functional variation act more strongly on multivariate phenotypes than on univariate traits.

Biodiversity as a multidimensional construct: a review, framework and case study of herbivory's impact on plant biodiversity

Biodiversity is inherently multidimensional, encompassing taxonomic, functional, phylogenetic, genetic, landscape and many other elements of variability of life on the Earth. However, this fundamental principle of multidimensionality is rarely applied in research aimed at understanding biodiversity's value to ecosystem functions and the services they provide. This oversight means that our current understanding of the ecological and environmental consequences of biodiversity loss is limited primarily to what unidimensional studies have revealed. To address this issue, we review the literature, develop a conceptual framework for multidimensional biodiversity research based on this review and provide a case study to explore the framework. Our case study specifically examines how herbivory by whitetail deer (Odocoileus virginianus) alters the multidimensional influence of biodiversity on understory plant cover at Black Rock Forest, New York. Using three biodiversity dimensions (taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic diversity) to explore our framework, we found that herbivory alters biodiversity's multidimensional influence on plant cover; an effect not observable through a unidimensional approach. Although our review, framework and case study illustrate the advantages of multidimensional over unidimensional approaches, they also illustrate the statistical and empirical challenges such work entails. Meeting these challenges, however, where data and resources permit, will be important if we are to better understand and manage the consequences we face as biodiversity continues to decline in the foreseeable future.

Carbon sequestration potential of second-growth forest regeneration in the Latin American tropics

Regrowth of tropical secondary forests following complete or nearly complete removal of forest vegetation actively stores carbon in aboveground biomass, partially counterbalancing carbon emissions from deforestation, forest degradation, burning of fossil fuels, and other anthropogenic sources. We estimate the age and spatial extent of lowland second-growth forests in the Latin American tropics and model their potential aboveground carbon accumulation over four decades. Our model shows that, in 2008, second-growth forests (1 to 60 years old) covered 2.4 million km(2) of land (28.1% of the total study area). Over 40 years, these lands can potentially accumulate a total aboveground carbon stock of 8.48 Pg C (petagrams of carbon) in aboveground biomass via low-cost natural regeneration or assisted regeneration, corresponding to a total CO2 sequestration of 31.09 Pg CO2. This total is equivalent to carbon emissions from fossil fuel use and industrial processes in all of Latin America and the Caribbean from 1993 to 2014. Ten countries account for 95% of this carbon storage potential, led by Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela. We model future land-use scenarios to guide national carbon mitigation policies. Permitting natural regeneration on 40% of lowland pastures potentially stores an additional 2.0 Pg C over 40 years. Our study provides information and maps to guide national-level forest-based carbon mitigation plans on the basis of estimated rates of natural regeneration and pasture abandonment. Coupled with avoided deforestation and sustainable forest management, natural regeneration of second-growth forests provides a low-cost mechanism that yields a high carbon sequestration potential with multiple benefits for biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Ontogenetic shifts in trait-mediated mechanisms of plant community assembly

Identifying the processes that maintain highly diverse plant communities remains a central goal in ecology. Species variation in growth and survival rates across ontogeny, represented by tree size classes and life history stage-specific niche partitioning, are potentially important mechanisms for promoting forest diversity. However, the role of ontogeny in mediating competitive dynamics and promoting functional diversity is not well understood, particular in high-diversity systems such as tropical forests. The interaction between interspecific functional trait variation and ontogenetic shifts in competitive dynamics may yield insights into the ecophysiological mechanisms promoting community diversity. We investigated how functional trait (seed size, maximum height, SLA, leaf N, and wood density) associations with growth, survival, and response to competing neighbors differ among seedlings and two size classes of trees in a subtropical rain forest in Puerto Rico. We used a hierarchical Bayes model of diameter growth and survival to infer trait relationships with ontogenetic change in competitive dynamics. Traits were more strongly associated with average growth and survival than with neighborhood interactions, and were highly consistent across ontogeny for most traits. The associations between trait values and tree responses to crowding by neighbors showed significant shifts as trees grew. Large trees exhibited greater growth as the difference in species trait values among neighbors increased, suggesting trait-associated niche partitioning was important for the largest size class. Our results identify potential axes of niche partitioning and performance-equalizing functional trade-offs across ontogeny, promoting species coexistence in this diverse forest community.

A well-resolved phylogeny of the trees of Puerto Rico based on DNA barcode sequence data

Background

The use of phylogenetic information in community ecology and conservation has grown in recent years. Two key issues for community phylogenetics studies, however, are (i) low terminal phylogenetic resolution and (ii) arbitrarily defined species pools.

Methodology/principal findings

We used three DNA barcodes (plastid DNA regions rbcL, matK, and trnH-psbA) to infer a phylogeny for 527 native and naturalized trees of Puerto Rico, representing the vast majority of the entire tree flora of the island (89%). We used a maximum likelihood (ML) approach with and without a constraint tree that enforced monophyly of recognized plant orders. Based on 50% consensus trees, the ML analyses improved phylogenetic resolution relative to a comparable phylogeny generated with Phylomatic (proportion of internal nodes resolved: constrained ML = 74%, unconstrained ML = 68%, Phylomatic = 52%). We quantified the phylogenetic composition of 15 protected forests in Puerto Rico using the constrained ML and Phylomatic phylogenies. We found some evidence that tree communities in areas of high water stress were relatively phylogenetically clustered. Reducing the scale at which the species pool was defined (from island to soil types) changed some of our results depending on which phylogeny (ML vs. Phylomatic) was used. Overall, the increased terminal resolution provided by the ML phylogeny revealed additional patterns that were not observed with a less-resolved phylogeny.

Conclusions/significance

With the DNA barcode phylogeny presented here (based on an island-wide species pool), we show that a more fully resolved phylogeny increases power to detect nonrandom patterns of community composition in several Puerto Rican tree communities. Especially if combined with additional information on species functional traits and geographic distributions, this phylogeny will (i) facilitate stronger inferences about the role of historical processes in governing the assembly and composition of Puerto Rican forests, (ii) provide insight into Caribbean biogeography, and (iii) aid in incorporating evolutionary history into conservation planning.