[Progress in methodological research on bridging the efficacy-effectiveness gap of clinical interventions(2): to improve the extrapolation of efficacy]

Objective: Randomized controlled trials (RCT) usually have strict implementation criteria. The included subjects' characteristics of the conditions for the intervention implementation are quite different from the actual clinical environment, resulting in discrepancies between the risk-benefit of interventions in actual clinical use and the risk-benefit shown in RCT. Therefore, some methods are needed to enhance the extrapolation of RCT results to evaluate the real effects of drugs in real people and clinical practice settings. Methods: Six databases (PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, CNKI, Wanfang Data, and VIP) were searched up to 31st December 2022 with detailed search strategies. A scoping review method was used to integrate and qualitatively describe the included literature inductively. Results: A total of 12 articles were included. Three methods in the included literature focused on: ①improving the design of traditional RCT to increase population representation; ②combining RCT Data with real-world data (RWD) for analysis;③calibrating RCT results according to real-world patient characteristics. Conclusions: Improving the design of RCT to enhance the population representation can improve the extrapolation of the results of RCT. Combining RCT data with RWD can give full play to the advantages of data from different sources; the results of the RCT were calibrated against real-world population characteristics so that the effects of interventions in real-world patient populations can be predicted.

[Application and advancement of digital teaching materials in teaching epidemiology]

This study aims at examining the application and development of digital teaching materials in the field of epidemiology, encompassing both China and international contexts. The research involved conducting search on websites and literature databases to assess the status of digital teaching materials in epidemiology, nationally and internationally. At present, in China, digital teaching materials used in epidemiology are primarily presented in the form of printed books with added QR codes, providing teaching resources such as videos and exercises. However, issues with the level of interactivity have been identified. In foreign countries, with stronger emphasis placed on personalization, interactivity, and the use of rich media technologies in the digital teaching materials, epidemiologically. Enhanced digitization regarding materials and learning outcomes is achieved through features such as real-time notes, interactive animations, and quizzes. These approaches are considered worth considering for adoption. This study provides valuable insights for the digital transformation of epidemiology education.

Mortality in patients admitted to hospital with heart failure in China: a nationwide Cardiovascular Association Database-Heart Failure Centre Registry cohort study

BACKGROUND

China has the largest burden of heart failure worldwide. However, large-scale studies on heart failure mortality are scarce. We aimed to investigate mortality and identify risk factors for mortality among patients with heart failure in China.

METHODS

This prospective cohort study used data from the China Cardiovascular Association (CCA) Database-Heart Failure Centre Registry, which were linked to the National Mortality Registration Information Management System by the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention. We included patients enrolled from Jan 1, 2017, to Dec 31, 2021, across 572 CCA Database-Heart Failure Centre certified hospitals in 31 provinces of mainland China. Eligible patients were aged 18 years or older (younger than 100 years) with a principal discharge diagnosis of heart failure based on Chinese heart failure guidelines. All-cause mortality at 30 days, 1 year, and 3 years for patients with heart failure were calculated and the causes of death were recorded. Multivariable analysis was used to analyse factors associated with all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality. This study was registered with the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry, ChiCTR2200066305.

FINDINGS

Of the 327 477 patients in the registry, 230 637 eligible adults with heart failure were included in our analyses. Participant mean age was 69·3 years (SD 13·2), 94 693 (41·1%) participants were female, and 135 944 (58·9%) were male. The median follow-up time was 531 days (IQR 251-883). Post-discharge all-cause mortality of patients with heart failure at 30 days was 2·4% (95% CI 2·3-2·5), at 1 year was 13·7% (13·5-13·9), and at 3 years was 28·2% (27·7-28·6). Cardiovascular death accounted for 32 906 (71·5%) of 46 006 all-cause deaths. Patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction had the highest all-cause mortality. A lower guideline adherence score was independently associated with the increase of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality.

INTERPRETATION

In China, mortality for patients with heart failure is still high, especially in patients with reduced ejection fraction. Our findings suggest that guideline-directed medical therapy needs to be improved.

FUNDING

National High Level Hospital Clinical Research Funding, the Capital's Funds for Health Improvement and Research, and the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences.

TRANSLATION

For the Chinese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Associations Between Thiazolidinediones Use and Incidence of Rheumatoid Arthritis: A Retrospective Population-Based Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

Preclinical studies suggest that thiazolidinediones (TZDs) may have a protective effect on rheumatoid arthritis (RA), but evidence from population-based studies is scarce. This study aimed to assess the association between use of TZDs and incidence of RA in a retrospective cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

METHODS

A retrospective cohort of patients with T2DM who were new users of TZDs or alpha glucosidase inhibitors (AGIs) was assembled. We applied the inverse probability of treatment weighted Cox model to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of RA incidence associated with the use of TZDs compared with AGIs.

RESULTS

The final analysis included 56,796 new users of AGIs and 14,892 new users of TZDs. The incidence of RA was 187.4 and 135.2 per 100,000 person-years in AGI users and TZD users, respectively. Compared with use of AGIs, TZD use was associated with a reduction in RA incidence, with an HR of 0.72 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.59-0.89). HRs for cumulative use of TZDs for 0.51 to 4.0 years and more than 4 years with incidence of RA were 0.55 (95% CI 0.35-0.88) and 0.74 (95% CI 0.57-0.98), respectively. Various subgroup analyses and sensitivity analyses were consistent with the primary analysis.

CONCLUSION

Use of TZDs is associated with a decreased risk of incident RA in patients with T2DM.

Real-world effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccination and age as effect modifier: A systematic review, meta-analysis and meta-regression of test-negative design studies

BACKGROUND

Under the global risk of epidemic rebound of influenza after COVID-19 outbreak, the study aimed to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) and to explore the potential effect modifiers.

METHODS

We searched for test-negative design studies with IVE estimates published between January 1, 2017 and December 31, 2022. We estimated pooled IVE using random-effects meta-analysis, and conducted meta-regression with study site, age, sex and comorbidity as explanatory variables.

RESULTS

We identified 2429 publications and included 191 in the meta-analysis. The pooled IVE was 41.4 % (95 % CI: 39.2-43.5 %) against any influenza. For specific strains, the IVE was 55.4 % (95 % CI: 52.7-58.1 %) against A/H1N1, 26.8 % (95 % CI: 23.5-29.9 %) against A/H3N2, 47.2 % (95 % CI: 38.1-54.9 %) against B/Yamagata, and 40.6 % (95 % CI: 23.7-53.7 %) against B/Victoria, and the effectiveness against A/H3N2 was significantly lower than A/H1N1 (p < 0.0001) and B/Yamagata (p < 0.0001). The pooled IVE was 39.2 % (95 % CI: 36.5-41.9 %) in preventing influenza-associated outpatient visit and 43.7 % (95 % CI: 39.7-47.4 %) in preventing influenza-related hospitalization. The IVE against any influenza was 48.6 % (95 % CI: 44.7-52.2 %) for children aged < 18 years, 36.7 % (95 % CI: 31.9-41.1 %) for adults aged 18-64 years, and 30.6 % (95 % CI: 26.2-34.8 %) for elderly aged ≥65 years. Meta-regression revealed that the IVE was associated with the average age of study participants, in which both young adults [relative odds ratio (ROR) = 1.225, 95 % confidence interval (CI): 1.099-1.365, p = 0.0002] and elderly (ROR = 1.245, 95 % CI: 1.083-1.431, p = 0.002) manifested a significantly decreased effectiveness compared with children.

CONCLUSIONS

Influenza vaccines provided moderate protection against laboratory-confirmed influenza and related outpatient visit and hospitalization. However, the effectiveness may vary substantially by virus type and age group, suggesting the necessity to tailor vaccination strategies especially for older individuals and against the A/H3N2 strain, and to promote annual immunization and annual analysis of vaccine effectiveness.

[Analysis methods and case analysis of effect modification (3): effect modification in individual patient data Meta-analysis]

This paper briefly introduces the unique advantages, overall analysis ideas and existing analysis methods of individual patient data Meta-analysis in terms of effect modification. In addition to Meta-regression and subgroup analysis, this paper also introduces the analysis methods based on part of individual patient data integrated with aggregated data and summarizes the current reporting of the above mentioned methods. In addition, the application and results interpretation of the above mentioned methods in individual patient data Meta-analysis are presented in this paper by taking "Effects of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors on SBP in patients with type 2 diabetes" as an example and by introducing their advantages and limitations.

Prospective cohort study evaluating the association between influenza vaccination and neurodegenerative diseases

The effect of influenza vaccination (FluVac) on the risk of neurodegenerative diseases has not been well evaluated in prospective populations. We aimed to assess the association between FluVac and the risk of dementia and Parkinson's disease (PD) in people aged 60 years or older through a prospective population-based cohort from the UK Biobank. A time-varying Cox regression model adjusted for baseline and repeatedly measured covariates was used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of the association between influenza vaccination and risk of dementia/PD. We took into account 70,938 participants in the cohort, including 38,328 participants who got vaccinated. During a median follow-up period of 12.2 years, 2087 incident dementia cases occurred, including 281 cases who received FluVac and 1806 cases who were not vaccinated. In addition, 742 incident PD cases occurred, among whom 131 cases received FluVac and 611 PD cases did not receive FluVac. FluVac was associated with reduced dementia risk with an HR of 0.83 (95% CI, 0.72-0.95) but was not associated with PD incidence (HR = 1.07; 95% CI, 0.87-1.32) after controlling baseline and repeatedly measured covariates. Further, among all dementia cases, there were 733 Alzheimer's disease (AD) (94 vaccinated cases and 639 non-vaccinated cases), 307 vascular dementia (VD) (34 vaccinated cases and 273 non-vaccinated cases), and 1047 cases with other dementias (OD) (153 vaccinated cases and 894 non-vaccinated cases). The HRs for the associations between FluVac and AD, VD, and OD were 0.79 (95% CI, 0.63-1.00), 0.58 (95% CI, 0.39-0.86), and 0.94 (95% CI, 0.78-1.14) respectively. A dose-response relationship was found in the association between FluVac and dementia but not in the association with PD. A major limitation of the study is the low accuracy in the diagnosis of dementia subtypes, namely AD, VD, and OD. However, Results of sensitivity analyses were consistent with the primary analyses. In conclusion, influenza vaccination is significantly associated with a reduced risk of incident dementia but not PD in community-dwelling adults in the UK Biobank population.

Risk of type 2 diabetes and long-term antibiotic use in childhood: Evidence from the UK Biobank

AIMS

This study aimed to investigate the association between long-term use of antibiotics during childhood and the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) using a prospective cohort from the UK Biobank.

METHODS

Participants in the UK Biobank who completed the online survey for digestive health were included in this prospective cohort study. A Cox regression model adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics, general health factors, mental health, lifestyle factors, comorbidities, and medication use was used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) and confidence interval (CI) of the association between long-term use of antibiotics in the childhood and incident T2DM.

RESULTS

The final analyses included 152,992 participants and 22,133 of them received long-term/recurrent antibiotics as children or teenagers. During the follow-up, 3370 and 681 incident T2DM cases occurred in the non-exposed and exposed groups respectively. Long-term use of antibiotics in childhood was associated with an increased risk of T2DM, with an HR of 1.16 (95 % CI, 1.07-1.27) after adjusting for potential confounders. Results in the subgroup analyses and sensitivity analyses were highly consistent with the primary analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term use of antibiotics in childhood is associated with the risk of T2DM in middle and old age in the UK Biobank population.

Development of a prediction model for predicting the prevalence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in Chinese nurses: the first-year follow data of a web-based ambispective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is gradually becoming a huge threat to public health. With complex working characteristics, female nurses had been found with high risk of NAFLD. To develop and validate a prediction model to predict the prevalence of NAFLD based on demographic characteristics, work situation, daily lifestyle and laboratory tests in female nurses.

METHODS

This study was a part of the Chinese Nurse Cohort Study (The National Nurse Health Study, NNHS), and data were extracted from the first-year follow data collected from 1st June to 1st September 2021 by questionnaires and physical examination records in a comprehensive tertiary hospital. The questionnaires included demographic characteristics, work situation and daily lifestyle. Logistic regression and a nomogram were used to develop and validate the prediction model.

RESULTS

A total of 824 female nurses were included in this study. Living situation, smoking history, monthly night shift, daily sleep time, ALT/AST, FBG, TG, HDL-C, UA, BMI, TBil and Ca were independent risk factors for NAFLD occurance. A prediction model for predicting the prevalence of NAFLD among female nurses was developed and verified in this study.

CONCLUSION

Living situation, smoking history, monthly night shift, daily sleep time, ALT/AST, FBG, TG, UA, BMI and Ca were independent predictors, while HDL-C and Tbil were independent protective indicators of NAFLD occurance. The prediction model and nomogram could be applied to predict the prevalence of NAFLD among female nurses, which could be used in health improvement.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

This study was a part of the Chinese Nurse Cohort Study (The National Nurse Health Study, NNHS), which was a ambispective cohort study contained past data and registered at Clinicaltrials.gov ( https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04572347 ) and the China Cohort Consortium ( http://chinacohort.bjmu.edu.cn/project/102/ ).

[Analysis methods and case analysis of effect modification (2): effect modification in network Meta-analysis]

This paper briefly introduces the characteristics, research significance, and global reporting status of effect modification in network Meta-analysis, demonstrates the heterogeneity caused by effect modification in network Meta-analysis, and emphasizes the importance of exploring effect modification in network Meta-analysis. This paper also summarizes the normalized description and analysis strategies of effect modification in network Meta-analysis. Finally, by the case of "comparison of efficacy of three new hypoglycemic drugs in reducing body weight in type 2 diabetes patients", this paper demonstrates the realization of subgroup analysis and network Meta-regression in exploring effect modification, summarizes the advantages and disadvantages of the two methods, to provide references for future researchers.

[Progress in methodological research on bridging the efficacy-effectiveness gap of clinical interventions (1): to improve the validity of real-world evidence]

Objective: Differences between randomized controlled trial (RCT) results and real world study (RWS) results may not represent a true efficacy-effectiveness gap because efficacy-effectiveness gap estimates may be biased when RWS and RCT differ significantly in study design or when there is bias in RWS result estimation. Secondly, when there is an efficacy- effectiveness gap, it should not treat every patient the same way but assess the real-world factors influencing the intervention's effectiveness and identify the subgroup likely to achieve the desired effect. Methods: Six databases (PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, CNKI, Wanfang Data, and VIP) were searched up to 31st December 2022 with detailed search strategies. A scoping review method was used to integrate and qualitatively describe the included literature inductively. Results: Ten articles were included to discuss how to use the RCT research protocol as a template to develop the corresponding RWS research protocol. Moreover, based on correctly estimating the efficacy-effectiveness gap, evaluate the intervention effect in the patient subgroup to confirm the subgroup that can achieve the expected benefit-risk ratio to bridge the efficacy-effectiveness gap. Conclusion: Using real-world data to simulate key features of randomized controlled clinical trial study design can improve the authenticity and effectiveness of study results and bridge the efficacy-effectiveness gap.

[Analysis methods and case analysis of effect modification (1): effect modification in epidemiology and traditional Meta-analysis]

This paper briefly introduces the definition, classification and significance of effect modification in epidemiological studies, summarizes the difference between effect modifier and confounders, and analyze the influence as well as the role of effect modification in epidemiological studies and Meta-analysis. In this paper, the possible scenarios of effect modification and related analysis strategy in Meta-analysis are indicated by graphics, aiming to arouse researchers' attention to effect modification. This paper also demonstrates how to identify and deal with effect modification in Meta-analysis through a study case of "Efficacy of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors in patients with type 2 diabetes", and shows the analysis process and interpretation of results of subgroup analysis and Meta-regression methods respectively. The advantages and disadvantages of these two methods are summarized to provide reference for the method selection of future research.

Building quality primary health care development in the new era towards universal health coverage: a Beijing initiative

Primary health care (PHC) is the most effective way to improve people's health and well-being, and primary care services should act as the cornerstone of a resilient health system and the foundation of universal health coverage. To promote high quality development of PHC, an International Symposium on Quality Primary Health Care Development was held on December 4-5, 2023 in Beijing, China, and the participants have proposed and advocated the Beijing Initiative on Quality Primary Health Care Development. The Beijing Initiative calls on all countries to carry out and strengthen 11 actions: fulfill political commitment and accountability; achieve "health in all policies" through multisectoral coordination; establish sustainable financing; empower communities and individuals; provide community-based integrated care; promote the connection and integration of health services and social services through good governance; enhance training, allocation and motivation of health workforce, and medical education; expand application of traditional and alternative medicine for disease prevention and illness healing; empower PHC with digital technology; ensure access to medicinal products and appropriate technologies; and last, strengthen global partnership and international health cooperation. The Initiative will enrich the content of quality development of PHC, build consensus, and put forward policies for quality development of PHC in China in the new era, which are expected to make contributions in accelerating global actions.

Incidence of Inflammatory Bowel Disease in Urban China: A Nationwide Population-based Study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Limited studies have evaluated the burden of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) in China. We aimed to estimate the incidence of IBD including ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn's disease (CD) in urban China.

METHODS

The national urban incidence in 2016 was calculated based on urban basic medical insurance from 2012 to 2016 in China by using a 4-year washout period. The incidence in Yinzhou District estimated from the Yinzhou electronic health care record database was used to test the accuracy of the results from insurance data.

RESULTS

A total of 95,555 patients with IBD were identified. The incidence in 2016 was 10.04 (95% confidence interval, 6.95-13.71) per 100,000 person-years. The incidence rates of both UC and CD were higher among males than among females. There was a sharp increase in UC incidence before the age of 30 years and stabilization in later years (50-79 years old), whereas CD incidence peaked at 30 to 34 years old and experienced decline subsequently. The incidence of UC was much greater than that of CD, with a UC-to-CD incidence ratio of 12.61. The results from the Yinzhou database confirmed these results.

CONCLUSIONS

This study is the first to draw a portrait of the distribution of IBD in urban China. The difference in IBD incidence between urban China and other countries suggests an association between the IBD burden and industrialization process. The accelerating urbanization and industrialization process in China, a country with a population of 1.4 billion people, will likely increase the burden of IBD.

Relationship between night shift and sleep problems, risk of metabolic abnormalities of nurses: a 2 years follow-up retrospective analysis in the National Nurse Health Study (NNHS)

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Efforts to improve nurses' physical and mental health are critical to ensuring the safety and quality of the healthcare system. Long-term studies targeting the relevancy of nurses' occupation characteristics with health conditions remain insufficient. This study aimed to examine the relationship between nurses' night shift and sleep problems and metabolic abnormalities risk.

METHODS

This study was a part of the National Nurse Health Study, an ambispective cohort study in China, in 2021. Based on an integration physical examination data system, this study carried out a retrospective analysis of 730 nurses from 2018 to 2020 and combined with a questionnaire survey in 2021. The STROBE guidelines were adopted for reporting.

RESULTS

In the 23 (23.0, 24.0) months follow-up, higher night shift load was associated with more sleep problems such as shortened sleep duration, sleep disorders, poor sleep quality, and sleep deprivation. Moreover, night shift load was associated with chronic diseases risk factors, increasing body mass index and body fat, with more night shift density, increasing the occurrence of low levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high triglyceride, triglyceride/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio, and serum uric acid.

CONCLUSION

The night shift load has become an occupational health concern, contributing to chronic diseases relevant metabolic risk factors and negative influence on sleep health. Focus on the strategies to improve the sleep quality of nurses undergoing night shift work, optimize work scheduling and ongoing monitor the relevant risk factors are essential to enhance the stability and well-being of the nursing workforce.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION INFORMATION

NCT04572347, on October 1, 2020. https://www.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov/ct2/show/NCT04572347.

No increased risk of intussusception after pentavalent rotavirus vaccination in China: a retrospective birth cohort using electronic health records of Ningbo city

Some post-licensure studies have shown a potential increased risk of intussusception following vaccination with rotavirus vaccines. This is the first study that aimed to assess the incidence and risk of intussusception within 90 days after vaccination with RotaTeq in Chinese infants. A population-based birth cohort from 27th November 2018 to 30th June 2021 included all newborns in Ningbo city. The records of intussusception were identified through the ICD-10 code K56.1 or Chinese keywords "Chang Tao" from all hospital discharge records. Each episode was confirmed in line with the Brighton criteria, and only Brighton level 1 cases were included. The association of RotaTeq vaccination and intussusception was evaluated using the Poisson regression. A total of 108,405 eligible subjects from birth cohort were eligible, with 52.30% males. Among them, 26, 847 (24.77%) infants received at least one dose of RotaTeq, and 95.52% of them were fully vaccinated, with 76, 934 doses in total. After adjudication, none of the cases occurred post first, or second dose, the cumulative number of cases that occurred 1-7, 1-14, 1-21, 1-42, and 1-90 days post third dose was 0, 1, 1, 3, and 7, respectively. Adjusting for age, sex, birth year, birth season and location, the incidence rate ratio of intussusception after RotaTeq vaccination was 0.90 (90% two-sided CI: 0.46, 1.75). Increasing age and male gender were associated with higher risk of intussusception. In summary, no increased risk of IS was observed following 3 months of RotaTeq vaccination in this study.

Metabolic Disease and Risk of Thyroid Disease: Evidence from the National Nurse Health Cohort in China

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have shown that metabolic diseases are risk factors for thyroid disease; most studies are cross-sectional design. We aimed to evaluate the causal relationship between thyroid and metabolic diseases in a cohort of Chinese nurses.

METHODS

We conducted an ambispective cohort study of the National Nurses' Health Study. Thyroid disease data based on ultrasonography from 2017 to 2021 were collected. We described thyroid disease incidence and the risk factors associated with a cluster of metabolic factors. We used the Mann‒Whitney U test, repeated-measures ANOVA and multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression to analyze the data.

RESULTS

A total of 1529 female nurses without thyroid disease were enrolled in 2017, of which, complete data were available for 1269 nurses. In 2018-2020, thyroid nodule incidence ranged from 32.8%-46.3%, thyroiditis incidence was 13.4%-14.3%, and goiter incidence was 4.1%-29.1%, thyroid adenoma and thyroid tumors incidence were 0.1%-0.5% and 1%-1.5%. We also found that NAFLAD was an independent risk factor for thyroid adenoma (p = .003). The age at diagnosis was an independent risk factor for goiter (p <. 001) and thyroid nodules (p < .001). Fasting blood glucose was an independent risk factor for thyroid tumors (p = .004). The age at diagnosis (p = .003), Body Mass Index (p = .006) and menopause (p = .031) were risk factors for thyroiditis.

CONCLUSION

Thyroid disease incidence among nurses is increasing. Age at diagnosis, BMI, fasting blood glucose, and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease are independent risk factors for different types of thyroid disease. This study provides evidence for future studies to further explore the pathogenesis and prevention of thyroid diseases.

[Research on indicators of ideological and political resource database construction for curriculum of "Epidemiology"]

Objective: To construct indicators of the ideological and political resource database construction for the curriculum of "Epidemiology". Methods: Two rounds of expert consultation were conducted in 15 experts from 4 universities and 1 textbook publishing house using the Delphi method, and the importance and feasibility scores of the indicators were calculated with the degree of concentration and coordination of experts' opinions. Results: In the two rounds of consultation, the experts' positive coefficient of the two questionnaires were both 100.00% (15/15), the authoritative coefficients of experts were both 0.83, and the Kendall's W was 0.27 (P<0.05) and 0.33 (P<0.05), respectively. Consensus was reached on 4 primary indicators and 31 secondary indicators. Conclusion: The process of this study is scientific, and the indicators for the construction of ideological and political resource database for the curriculum of "Epidemiology" are authoritative, which can promote the establishment of ideological and political resource database for the curriculum of "Epidemiology".

[Introduction of a tool to assess Risk of Bias in Non-randomized Studies-of Exposure (2022)]

This article introduces the contents of the latest edition Risk of Bias in Non-randomized Studies-of Exposure (ROBINS-E) published in June 2022 [ROBINS-E (2022)], and gives some examples about its usage. ROBINS-E is a tool for assessing the risk of bias in non-randomized studies-of exposure. Compared with ROBINS-E (2019), ROBINS-E (2022) adds more bias for observational studies, covers a more comprehensive range of bias, and adds the assessment of the external authenticity of the study. ROBINS-E (2022) adds a preliminary evaluation process to improve the efficiency of evaluation. In addition, ROBINS-E (2022) visualizes and instrumentalizes the use of signal problems in the form of path graph, making it more convenient to use. ROBINS-E (2022), although more consideration has been given to the issue of co-exposure, still does not address the problem of effect modification in co-exposure, and there is still room to expand the applicable research.

[Methodology and progress in adjusting time-dependent covariates in clinical prediction models]

Adjusting time-dependent covariates into prediction models may help improve model performance and expand clinical applications. The methodology of handling time-dependent covariates is limited in traditional regression strategies (i.e., landmark model, joint model). For example, the number of predictors and practical situations which can be handled are restricted when using regression models. One new strategy is to use machine learning (i.e., neural networks). This review summarizes the methodology of handling time-dependent covariates in prediction models, such as applicable scenarios, strengths, and limitations, to offer methodological enlightenment for processing time-dependent covariates.

[Methods for controlling and evaluating residual confounding in the association analysis of observational study with a multicenter database]

The observational research based on big data in healthcare has attracted increasing attention, with the control and evaluation of residual confounding being the critical issue that needs to be solved urgently. This review summarized the methods for statistical adjustment and sensitivity analysis of residual confounding in the association analysis with a multicenter database. Based on individual-level data, the residual confounding can be adjusted in each subcenter using methods such as regression discontinuity design, while the pooled estimate can be obtained as a weighted average. Based on the center-level results, the Bayesian Meta-analysis method can adjust the pooled estimates. The sensitivity analysis of residual confounding can also be carried out using center-level data to calculate the E-value, p^(q), T^(r, q) and G^r,q. The abovementioned methods should be selected reasonably according to the requirements for practical applications, advantages, and disadvantages. For example, the use of subcenter individual data for residual confounding adjustment usually needs strict study design and frequent coordination; the Bayesian Meta-analysis is based on some strong assumptions; the interpretation of the results in the sensitivity analysis, such as E-value requires professional judgment to assess the risk of residual confounding. Therefore, the methods for controlling and evaluating residual confounding in association analysis based on multicenter databases still need further development and improvement.

MOnitoring human papillomavirus Vaccine effect on Infection and cErvical diseases (MOVIE): Protocol for a cohort study using electronic health records from Yinzhou, China

Cervical cancer is the fourth most common cancer in women, with a high disease burden worldwide. Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination reduces HPV-related infection and associated cervical lesions and cancers. Few studies have explored HPV vaccination impact in real-world settings in China. This study aims to monitor HPV vaccine uptake and its effects on HPV-related diseases, evaluating vaccine effectiveness in a real-world context and complementing clinical trial results. Electronic health records (EHRs) from 2010 to 2020 from the Yinzhou Regional Health Information Platform (YRHIP) will be queried/extracted to identify and monitor HPV vaccine uptake in females aged 9-45 years, and HPV-related screening and prevalence (i.e., cervical HPV infection, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia [CIN] grades 1-3, and cervical cancer) in a cohort of females aged 9-70 years. Cervical cancer screening guidelines and expert consultation will be used for intra-database validation, to determine the best algorithm for identifying HPV-related disease. Pre-launch (2010-2016) and post-launch (2018-2020) periods are predefined. A time trend analysis will be performed to describe the vaccination impact on disease prevalence and, if prerequisite conditions are met, vaccine effectiveness will be computed using logistic regression, adjusting for age, calendar year, history of screening and HPV infection. Cohort study design, outcomes validation, data linkage, and multi-step statistical analyses could provide valuable experience for designing other real-world studies in the future. The study outcomes can help inform policy-makers about uptake and HPV vaccination policy in girls and women in Yinzhou District, and provide insights on progress toward achieving goals set by the World Health Organization.

Association between Mobile Phone Use and Incidence of Dementia: A Prospective Cohort Study Using the UK Biobank

INTRODUCTION

The rapid growth in mobile phone use has led to public concern about its potential effects on the risk of dementia. This study aimed to investigate the association between mobile phone use in daily life and the risk of dementia incidence in community-dwelling adults based on the data from the UK Biobank.

METHODS

Participants in the UK Biobank aged 60 years or older with no diagnosis of dementia at the time of recruitment were included in this prospective cohort study. A Cox regression model adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics, general health factors, mental health, lifestyle factors, comorbidities, and medication use was used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) and confidence interval (CI) of the association between mobile phone use and dementia risk.

RESULTS

The final analyses included 213,181 participants. During a median follow-up period of 12.4 years, 6,344 cases of incident dementia occurred. Mobile phone use displayed a modest association with lower risk of dementia incidence, with HRs of 0.85 (95% CI: 0.79-0.91), 0.85 (95% CI: 0.80-0.91), 0.78 (95% CI: 0.71-0.86), 0.86 (95% CI: 0.77-0.96), and 0.83 (95% CI: 0.70-0.98) for participants who reported phone call usage of fewer than 5 min, 5-29 min, 30-59 min, 1-3 h, and more than 3 h per week, respectively, compared with nonusers. In addition, the proportions of the association medicated by family/friend visits and other leisure/social activities were 2.62% (95% CI: -0.64-6.51) and 2.22% (95% CI: 1.12-4.12), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Daily mobile phone use is significantly associated with a reduced risk of incident dementia in community-dwelling adults in the UK Biobank population. This association seems to be mediated by improved social and mental activities.

[Epidemiological study of incidence of systematic lupus erythematosus in Yinzhou, Ningbo, 2016-2021]

Objective: To characterize the incidence density of systematic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in Yinzhou District of Ningbo from 2016 to 2021, and compare the age and gender specific differences. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted based on the related data from 2015 to 2021 collected from the Health Information Platform of Yinzhou. Suspected SLE cases in local residents were identified by fuzzy matching of International Classification of Diseases 10^th edition code "M32" or Chinese text "lupus". The classification criteria from Systemic Lupus International Collaboration Clinics-2012 and The European League Against Rheumatism/American College of Rheumatology-2019 were used for case verification. SLE cases were identified with specific algorithm based on verification results, and new cases were identified with 1 year as the washout period. The incidence density and 95%CI were estimated by Poisson distribution. Results: From 2016 to 2021, a total of 1 551 921 permanent residents were registered in Yinzhou, in whom 51.52% were women. The M(Q₁,Q₃) age at enrollment was 40.38 (27.54, 53.54) years. The M(Q₁,Q₃) of follow-up person-years was 3.83 (0.41, 5.83) years. There were 451 new SLE cases, in which 352 were women (78.05%). The 6-year incidence density was 8.14/100 000 person-years (95%CI: 7.41/100 000 person-years-8.93/100 000 person-years) for the total population, 3.68/100 000 person-years (95%CI: 2.99/100 000 person-years-4.48/100 000 person-years) for men and 12.37/100 000 person-years (95%CI: 11.11/100 000 person-years- 13.73/100 000 person-years) for women. The incidence density in men appeared a small peak at 20-29 years old, and began to increase with age from 40 years old. The incidence density in women was highest in age group 20-29 years (16.57/100 000 person-years) and remained to be high until 30-79 years old. The incidence density of SLE in Yinzhou show no significant temporal trend from 2016 to 2021 (men: P=0.848; women: P=1.000). Conclusions: The incidence density of SLE in Yinzhou from 2016 to 2021 was similar to those of other areas in China. SLE has a high incidence in women, especially in the young and elderly, suggesting that more attention should be paid to the diagnosis and treatment of SLE in women.

[A risk prediction model of cervical cancer developed based on nested case-control design]

Objective: To construct a cervical cancer risk prediction model based on nested case-control study design and Yinzhou Health Information Platform in Ningbo, and provide reliable reference for self-risk assessment of cervical cancer in local women. Methods: In local women aged 25-75 years old who had no history of cervical cancer registered in Yinzhou before October 31, 2018, a follow up was conducted for at least three years, the patients who developed cervical cancer during the follow up period were selected as the case group and matched with a control group at a ratio of 1∶10. The prediction indicators before the onset was used in model construction. Variables were selected by Lasso-logistic regression, the variables with non-zero β were selected to fit the logistic regression model and Bootstrap was used for internal validation. The discrimination of the model was evaluated by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUROC), and the calibration was evaluated by calibration curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Results: The prediction indicators included in the final model were age, smoking status, history of cervicitis, history of adenomyosis, HPV testing, and thinprep cytologic test. The AUROC calculated in the internal validation was 0.740 (95%CI:0.739-0.740), and the calibration curve was almost identical with the ideal curve, P=0.991 in Hosmer-Lemeshow test, indicating that the model discrimination and calibration were good. Conclusions: In this study, a simple and practical cervical cancer risk prediction model was developed. The model can be used in general population with strong interpretability, good discrimination and calibration in internal validation, which can provide a reference for women to assess their risk of cervical cancer.

Incidence and cost of dermatofibrosarcoma protuberans in mainland urban China: a nationwide retrospective study 2014-2016

BACKGROUND

Dermatofibrosarcoma protuberans (DFSP) is a rare cutaneous sarcoma. Limited population-based epidemiological studies on DFSP have been conducted.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to estimate the incidence and disease burden of DFSP in China.

MATERIALS & METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional study using data from the national databases of the Urban Basic Medical Insurance scheme. Cases were identified by ICD code and Chinese language diagnostic terms. National incidence from 2014 to 2016 was estimated by gender and age, and associated medical costs were calculated.

RESULTS

A total of 175 patients were confirmed with DFSP from 2014 to 2016. Crude incidence varied from 0.353 per 100,000 (95% CI: 0.203-0.503) in 2014 to 0.367 per 100,000 (95% CI: 0.279-0.455) in 2016. Incidence was higher in males than in females. The first incidence peak was observed between the ages of 20 and 39 years and the highest incidence rates were in those aged over 60 years. Average medical costs of DFSP were higher than the per capita disposable income of residents.

CONCLUSION

Incidence of DFSP in mainland urban China is lower than in most developed countries and has remained relatively stable from 2014 to 2016. Further research is expected to clarify the potential pathophysiological mechanisms of DFSP.

Obesity and risk of hearing loss in the middle-aged and elderly: a national cohort of Chinese adults

BACKGROUND

The relationship between obesity and hearing loss among the middle-aged and older population remained unclear. Moreover, few studies have focused on the impact of gender on this association.

METHODS

This cohort study extracted the data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, a national survey of adults aged 45 years or over. Waist circumference was categorized into three groups: normal, pre-central obesity, and central obesity. We classified BMI into four categories: underweight, normal weight, overweight, and obese. The primary endpoint was the incidence of self-reported hearing loss.

RESULTS

Of the 14,237 participants, 1972 incidents of hearing loss were identified during a median 6.9 years of follow-up. The cumulative incidence of hearing loss was 13.9% (95% CI 13.3% -14.4%). Our study showed that central obesity was significantly associated with hearing loss (HR 0.84, 95%CI 0.75-0.94), and this relationship was more prominent in males (HR 0.76, 95%CI 0.63-0.91). Among male participants, the underweight group was at the highest risk of hearing loss (HR 1.39, 95%CI 1.08-1.79). Compared with the normal weight group, the adjusted HR for hearing loss in the obese groups was 0.69 (95%CI 0.51-0.94) among men. Among female participants, only the overweight group had a lower risk of hearing loss than the normal weight group (HR 0.83, 95%CI 0.71-0.96).

CONCLUSIONS

Being overweight and obese were significantly associated with a decreased risk of hearing loss, whereas being underweight was associated with an increased risk of hearing loss.

Association between weather and hip fracture in adults: a nationwide study in China 198 cities

Hip fractures represent a significant public health issue due to high incidence in aging society. Our study further proved that increased risk for hip fractures in adults is associated with weather conditions.

PURPOSE

Hip fractures represent a significant public health issue due to high incidence in aging society. Evidence of the short-term effects of weather on the risk of hip fracture is limited and inconsistent. We aimed to examine the associations between weather conditions and daily hospital admissions for hip fracture in adults in China.

METHODS

A national time-series analysis between 2014 and 2017 was conducted. Data on daily hospital admissions for hip fracture were obtained from the database of Urban Employee Basic Medical Insurance (UEBMI) and Urban Resident Basic Medical Insurance (URBMI). Weather conditions were acquired from the China Meteorological Data Sharing Service Center. Based on a time-stratified case-crossover design, conditional Poisson regression was used to estimate the impact on relative risk (RR) of weather conditions on hospital admissions for hip fracture.

RESULTS

During the study period, a total of 137,504 hospital admissions for hip fractures were identified. All analyzed weather conditions showed consistent significant associations at lag 0 day for each 10 mm increase in precipitation, 10 m/s in wind speed, and 10°C in temperature, with the RR value being 1.079 (95% CI, 1.074-1.083) for precipitation, 1.404 (95% CI, 1.346-1.465) for wind speed, and 1.558 (95% CI, 1.546-1.570) for temperature. Women were more vulnerable to be affected by precipitation and temperature.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, increased risk for hip fractures in adults is associated with weather conditions. The improved understanding of the relationship between weather conditions and hip fractures hospital admission can be useful for resource allocation and provider preparedness.

Cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination: A systematic review

OBJECTIVE

The COVID-19 vaccination strategy has been widely used to protect population health worldwide. This study aims to summarize the cost-effectiveness evidence of economic evaluation of COVID-19 vaccination strategies to provide evidence supporting the usage of COVID-19 vaccination, especially where the supply of COVID-19 vaccine is limited.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was performed by searching both English and Chinese databases, including PubMed, Embase, Science Direct, Web of Science, Medline, Scopus, and CNKI. Articles published from January 1, 2020 to August 1, 2022 (PROSPERO registration number: CRD42022355442).

RESULTS

Of the 1035 papers identified, a total of 28 English studies that met the preset criteria were included. COVID-19 vaccination and booster vaccination were cost-effective or cost-saving regardless of the vaccine type; vaccine efficacy, vaccine price, vaccine supply or prioritization, and vaccination pace were the influential factors of cost-effectiveness among different population groups. When supply is adequate, mass vaccination should be encouraged, while when supply is inadequate, prioritizing the high risk and the elderly is more cost-effective.

CONCLUSIONS

COVID-19 vaccination strategies are economically favorable in a wide range of countries and population groups, and further research on suitable strategies for booster COVID-19 vaccination is needed.

Integrated database-based Screening Cohort for Asian Nomadic descendants in China (Scan-China): Insights on prospective ethnicity-focused cancer screening

Established in 2017, the Screening Cohort for Asian Nomadic descendants in China (Scan-China) has benefited over 180,000 members of a multi-ethnic population, particularly individuals of Mongolian descent compared with the general population (Han ethnicity), in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China. This cohort study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of cancer screening and serve as a real-world data platform for cancer studies. The 6 most prevalent cancers in China are considered-namely, breast, lung, colorectal, gastric, liver and esophageal cancer. After baseline cancer risk assessments and screening tests, both active and passive follow-up (based on the healthcare insurance database, cancer registry, the front page of hospital medical records, and death certificates) will be conducted to trace participants' onset and progression of cancers and other prevalent chronic diseases. Scan-China has preliminarily found a disproportionately lower screening participation rate and higher incidence/mortality rates of esophageal and breast cancer among the Mongolian population than among their Han counterparts. Further research will explore the cancer burden, natural history, treatment patterns, and risk factors of the target cancers.

Inflammatory Bowel Disease and Long-term Risk of Cancer: A Prospective Cohort Study Among Half a Million Adults in UK Biobank

BACKGROUND

This study aims to examine the prospective association of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) with long-term risk of overall, site-specific cancer and cancer-specific mortality in middle-aged and older people.

METHODS

The study included participants free of any cancer at baseline from the UK Biobank, with IBD patients as an exposure group and non-IBD patients as a reference group. Primary outcome was the incidence of overall cancer and cancer-specific mortality. Secondary outcomes included site-specific cancers and types of digestive cancers. Cox proportional hazard model was used to investigate the associated risk of incident malignancies and related mortality.

RESULTS

Among 455 927 participants, 5142 were diagnosed with IBD (3258 ulcerative colitis [UC]; 1449 Crohn's disease [CD]; others unspecified). During a median of 12.2-year follow-up, 890 cases of incident cancer were identified in IBD patients (15.74 per 1000 person years) compared with 63 675 cases in reference individuals (12.46 per 1000 person years). Of these cases, 220 and 12 838 cancer-specific deaths occurred in IBD and non-IBD groups. Compared with non-IBD participants, the adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) for overall cancer and cancer-specific mortality was 1.17 (95% CI, 1.09-1.25) and 1.26 (95% CI, 1.18-1.35) among IBD patients, with an AHR of 1.15 (95% CI, 1.02-1.31) and 1.38 (95% CI, 1.08-1.75) in UC and 1.15 (95% CI, 1.06-1.25) and 1.25 (95% CI, 1.06-1.49) in CD, respectively. Specifically, increased risk of digestive (1.33; 95% CI, 1.12-1.57), nonmelanoma (1.25; 95% CI, 1.11-1.41), and male genital (1.29; 95% CI, 1.09-1.52) cancers was observed in IBD patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with non-IBD, IBD may be associated with an increased risk of overall cancer and cancer-specific mortality, particularly digestive cancers, nonmelanoma and male genital cancers.

Adsorption of typical natural organic matter on microplastics in aqueous solution: Kinetics, isotherm, influence factors and mechanism

With rapid urbanization, microplastics and natural organic matters (NOMs) are ubiquitous in aquatic environment, and microplastics could act as carriers for organic matters in the aqueous solution and may pose a potential risk. In this study, the adsorption behaviors and mechanism of typical NOM, humic acid (HA), on polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and polystyrene (PS) microplastics were investigated. Various influence factors such as solution pH, ions species and concentrations, particle size, and coexisting surfactants were studied. The results suggested that HA adsorption onto PVC and PS was low pH-dependent, and ion species and concentrations have a significant impact on the adsorption capacity. In addition, the particle size of PVC and PS microplastics exhibited a significant correlation with HA adsorption, and the adsorption process was influenced by the surfactant species and concentrations. Moreover, the adsorption behaviors of HA in different real water environments were tested, and UV aging exhibited the opposite effects on adsorption capacity of PVC and PS. Furthermore, the adsorption mechanisms of HA onto PVC and PS were explored, indicating halogen bonding, hydrogen bonding, and π-π interaction play important roles in the adsorption process.

Thiazolidinedione use is associated with reduced risk of dementia in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: A retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and dementia cause heavy health burden in mainland China, where few studies have investigated the association between glucose-lowering agents and dementia risk. We aimed to assess the association between use of thiazolidinediones (TZDs) and dementia incidence in a mainland Chinese population with T2DM.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort of T2DM patients who were new users of TZDs or alpha glucosidase inhibitors (AGIs) was assembled using the Yinzhou Regional Health Care Database. A Cox model with inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) for controlling potential founding was applied to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of the association between use of TZDs and dementia risk.

RESULTS

A total of 49 823 new users of AGIs and 12 752 new users of TZDs were included in the final cohort. In the primary analysis, the incidence of dementia was 195.7 and 78.2 per 100 000 person-years in users of AGIs and TZDs respectively. TZD use was associated with a reduced risk of incident dementia after adjusting for potential confounding using IPTW, with a HR of 0.51 (95% CI, 0.38-0.67). The results in various subgroup analyses and sensitivity analyses were consistent with the findings of the primary analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Use of TZDs is associated with a decreased risk of dementia incidence in a mainland Chinese population with T2DM.

COVID-19 pharmacological research trends: a bibliometric analysis

Background

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is ravaging the world. Many therapies have been explored to treat COVID-19. This report aimed to assess the global research trends for the development of COVID-19 therapies.

Methods

We searched the relevant articles on COVID-19 therapies published from January 1, 2020, to May 25, 2022, in the Web of Science Core Collection Database (WOSCC). VOSviewer 1.6.18 software was used to assess data on the countries, institutions, authors, collaborations, keywords, and journals that were most implicated in COVID-19 pharmacological research. The latest research and changing trends in COVID-19-relevant pharmacological research were analyzed.

Results

After manually eliminating articles that do not meet the requirements, a total of 5,289 studies authored by 32,932 researchers were eventually included in the analyses, which comprised 95 randomized controlled trials. 3,044 (57.6%) studies were published in 2021. The USA conducted the greatest number of studies, followed by China and India. The primary USA collaborators were China and England. The topics covered in the publications included: the general characteristics, the impact on pharmacists' work, the pharmacological research, broad-spectrum antiviral drug therapy and research, and promising targets or preventive measures, such as vaccine. The temporal diagram revealed that the current research hotspots focused on the vaccine, molecular docking, Mpro, and drug delivery keywords.

Conclusion

Comprehensive bibliometric analysis could aid the rapid identification of the principal research topics, potential collaborators, and the direction of future research. Pharmacological research is critical for the development of therapeutic and preventive COVID-19-associated measures. This study may therefore provide valuable information for eradicating COVID-19.

Predictive Efficiency of Prediabetes for Diabetes Among Chinese Middle-Aged and Older Populations: a 5-Year National Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Limited studies have explored the predictive efficiency of prediabetes based on two definitions for diabetes among Chinese middle-aged and older populations with prediabetes.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the predictive efficiency of prediabetes based on two definitions for diabetes and the clinical and public health benefit in Chinese middle-aged and older populations.

DESIGN

A 5-year cohort study from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 5208 participants who had blood sample data at baseline in 2011.

MAIN MEASURES

The exposure was prediabetes based on American Diabetes Association (ADA) and World Health Organization (WHO) definition. The main outcome was incident diabetes. The ability of prediabetes for predicting diabetes was assessed by sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to explore the associations between prediabetes and the 5-year risk of diabetes and all-cause mortality.

KEY RESULTS

Among those with prediabetes according to the ADA definition, only 426 (15.45%) with baseline prediabetes progressed to total diabetes, while according to the WHO definition, 208 (21.89%) progressed to total diabetes. In terms of the ability of predicting the incident total diabetes in 5 years, the ADA definition has a higher sensitivity than the WHO definition (70.76% versus 34.55%, P < 0.001), while the WHO definition has a higher specificity than the ADA definition (84.09% versus 49.35%, P < 0.001). Positive predictive values based on the two definitions were low (< 24%); negative predictive values were high (> 90%).

CONCLUSIONS

Neither definition of prediabetes is robust for predicting diabetes development in Chineses middle-aged and older populations.

Immunogenicity and reactogenicity of heterologous immunization schedules with COVID-19 vaccines: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Data on the immunogenicity and safety of heterologous immunization schedules are inconsistent. This study aimed to evaluate the immunogenicity and safety of homologous and heterologous immunization schedules.

METHODS

Multiple databases with relevant studies were searched with an end date of October 31, 2021, and a website including a series of Coronavirus disease 2019 studies was examined for studies before March 31, 2022. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that compared different heterologous and homologous regimens among adults that reported immunogenicity and safety outcomes were reviewed. Primary outcomes included neutralizing antibodies against the original strain and serious adverse events (SAEs). A network meta-analysis (NMA) was conducted using a random-effects model.

RESULTS

In all, 11 RCTs were included in the systematic review, and nine were ultimately included in the NMA. Among participants who received two doses of CoronaVac, another dose of mRNA or a non-replicating viral vector vaccine resulted in a significantly higher level of neutralizing antibody than a third CoronaVac 600 sino unit (SU); a dose of BNT162b2 induced the highest geometric mean ratio (GMR) of 15.24, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 9.53-24.39. Following one dose of BNT162b2 vaccination, a dose of mRNA-1273 generated a significantly higher level of neutralizing antibody than BNT162b2 alone (GMR = 1.32; 95% CI: 1.06-1.64), NVX-CoV2373 (GMR = 1.60; 95% CI: 1.16-2.21), or ChAdOx1 (GMR = 1.80; 95% CI: 1.25-2.59). Following one dose of ChAdOx1, a dose of mRNA-1273 was also more effective for improving antibody levels than ChAdOx1 (GMR = 11.09; 95% CI: 8.36-14.71) or NVX-CoV2373 (GMR = 2.87; 95% CI: 1.08-3.91). No significant difference in the risk for SAEs was found in any comparisons.

CONCLUSIONS

Relative to vaccination with two doses of CoronaVac, a dose of BNT162b2 as a booster substantially enhances immunogenicity reactions and has a relatively acceptable risk for SAEs relative to other vaccines. For primary vaccination, schedules including mRNA vaccines induce a greater immune response. However, the comparatively higher risk for local and systemic adverse events introduced by mRNA vaccines should be noted.

REGISTRATION

PROSPERO; https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/ ; No. CRD42021278149.

Stem Cell Therapy for Alzheimer's Disease: A Scoping Review for 2017-2022

Alzheimer's disease (AD) has been a major causal factor for mortality among elders around the world. The treatments for AD, however, are still in the stage of development. Stem cell therapy, compared to drug therapies and many other therapeutic options, has many advantages and is very promising in the future. There are four major types of stem cells used in AD therapy: neural stem cells, mesenchymal stem cells, embryonic stem cells, and induced pluripotent stem cells. All of them have applications in the treatments, either at the (1) cellular level, in an (2) animal model, or at the (3) clinical level. In general, many more types of stem cells were studied on the cellular level and animal model, than the clinical level. We suggest for future studies to increase research on various types of stem cells and include cross-disciplinary research with other diseases. In the future, there could also be improvements in the timeliness of research and individualization for stem cell therapies for AD.

Diagnostic validation and development of an algorithm for identification of intussusception in children using electronic health records of Ningbo city in China

BACKGROUND

Monitoring the risk of intussusception after the introduction of rotavirus vaccines is recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). Although the validity of intussusception monitoring using electronic health records (EHRs) has been confirmed previously, no similar studies have been conducted in China. We aimed to verify the diagnosis and determine an algorithm with the best performance for identification of intussusception using Chinese EHR databases.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Using the Regional Health Information Platform in Ningbo, patients aged 0-72 months from 2015 to 2021 with any related visits for intussusception were included. The algorithms were based on diagnostic codes or keywords in different clinical scenarios, and their performance was evaluated with positive predictive value (PPV) and sensitivity in line with the Brighton guidelines.

RESULTS

Brighton level 1 intussusception was confirmed in 2958 patients with 3246 episodes. Fine-tuned algorithms combining the appearance of the relevant ICD-10 codes or the Chinese keyword 'Chang Tao' in any diagnostic reports with the results of enema treatments or related surgeries showed the highest sensitivity, while the highest PPV was obtained by further criteria based on typical radiographic appearances.

CONCLUSION

Intussusception could be identified and validated internally using EHRs in Ningbo.

Post-marketing surveillance for the safety of the 9-valent human papillomavirus vaccine: a retrospective real-world study in China

BACKGROUND

The 9-valent human papillomavirus (9vHPV) vaccine was introduced in China in 2018. This study was conducted to monitor the occurrence of new-onset autoimmune diseases (AIs) in Chinese women vaccinated with the 9vHPV vaccine and adverse pregnancy outcomes in infants born to mothers with inadvertent pregnancy exposure.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Women who received the first dose of the 9vHPV vaccine at age 16-26 years in Ningbo between January 2019 and March 2021 were monitored in the Ningbo Regional Health Information Platform. New-onset cases of seven pre-specified AIs diagnosed within six months after vaccination were collected. Cases of stillbirth and 23 major congenital anomalies diagnosed within three months of birth in target infants were collected.

RESULTS

A total of 102,670 doses of the 9vHPV vaccine were administered to 41,609 women who had received no other HPV vaccine. New-onset AIs were diagnosed in 36 women, comprising 21 Hashimoto's, 11 Graves', and 4 uveitis disease cases. Among 50 women with maternal vaccination exposure, no stillbirths were observed. One case of microtia was observed.

CONCLUSIONS

In this first post-marketing surveillance of the 9vHPV vaccine in China, no safety signals were identified when putting the results in context to published data.

Upper arm length and knee height are associated with diabetes in the middle-aged and elderly: evidence from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study

OBJECTIVE

To determine if limb lengths, as markers of early life environment, are associated with the risk of diabetes in China.

DESIGN

We performed a cohort analysis using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), and multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to examine the associations between baseline limb lengths and subsequent risk of diabetes.

SETTING

The CHARLS, 2011-2018.

PARTICIPANTS

The study confined the eligible subject to 10 711 adults aged over 45 years from the CHARLS.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up period of 6·13 years, 1358 cases of incident diabetes were detected. When controlling for potential covariates, upper arm length was inversely related to diabetes (hazard ratio (HR) 0·95, 95 % CI (0·91, 0·99), P = 0·028), and for every 1-cm difference in knee height, the risk of diabetes decreased by about 4 % (HR 0·96, 95 % CI (0·93, 0·99), P = 0·023). The association between upper arm length and diabetes was only significant among females while the association between knee height and diabetes was only significant among males. In analyses stratified by BMI, significant associations between upper arm length/knee height and diabetes only existed among those who were underweight (HR 0·91, 95 % CI (0·83, 1·00), P = 0·049, HR 0·92, 95 % CI (0·86, 0·99), P = 0·031).

CONCLUSIONS

Inverse associations were observed between upper arm length, knee height and the risk for diabetes development in a large Asian population, suggesting early life environment, especially infant nutritional status, may play an important role in the determination of future diabetes risk.

Noise Reduction Learning Based on XLNet-CRF for Biomedical Named Entity Recognition

In recent years, Biomedical Named Entity Recognition (BioNER) systems have mainly been based on deep neural networks, which are used to extract information from the rapidly expanding biomedical literature. Long-distance context autoencoding language models based on transformers have recently been employed for BioNER with great success. However, noise interference exists in the process of pre-training and fine-tuning, and there is no effective decoder for label dependency. Current models have many aspects in need of improvement for better performance. We propose two kinds of noise reduction models, Shared Labels and Dynamic Splicing, based on XLNet encoding which is a permutation language pre-training model and decoding by Conditional Random Field (CRF). By testing 15 biomedical named entity recognition datasets, the two models improved the average F1-score by 1.504 and 1.48, respectively, and state-of-the-art performance was achieved on 7 of them. Further analysis proves the effectiveness of the two models and the improvement of the recognition effect of CRF, and suggests the applicable scope of the models according to different data characteristics.

The effectiveness of influenza vaccine among elderly Chinese: A regression discontinuity design based on Yinzhou regional health information platform

In China, a free influenza vaccination policy is being implemented among individuals aged 70 years and over in Zhejiang province during the COVID-19 pandemic. The objective was to assess the effectiveness of influenza vaccine in reducing hospitalization and mortality in the elderly. We used data from the Regional Health Information Platform in Yinzhou located in Zhejiang province and applied a regression discontinuity design to estimate the intention-to-treat effect on admission and mortality rates by month of age in the population who was near the age of 70 years threshold. At age 70 years, the influenza vaccination rate increased by 29.1% (95% CI, 28.2% to 29.9%) compared to those under 70 in the study population. When turning age 70 years, the potential effectiveness of receiving influenza vaccine was 8.2% (95% CI, -36.8% to 51.3%) for total hospitalization and the evaluation of vaccine effectiveness was 13.1% (95% CI, -34.2 to 61.8) for the all-cause mortality. An increase in the influenza vaccination rate was associated with a weak decline in most outcomes, but no significance was found for all outcomes. Influenza vaccination had a limited effect on hospital admission and mortality for the free influenza vaccination program that can be related to the low vaccination rate among the Chinese elderly. Supplementation strategies and future studies may be needed to expand immunization coverage and validate this finding, and further provide a reference for other cities to promote the free influenza vaccination policy in China, especially under circumstances of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Impact of HPV vaccination on HPV infection and cervical related disease burden in real-world settings (HPV-RWS): protocol of a prospective cohort

Background

Cervical cancer is one of the most common cancers in women and could be prevented by human papilloma virus (HPV) vaccination. Cervarix, the first available HPV vaccine, has been widely administrated to Chinese women, while little was known about its effect on the prevention and control for HPV related diseases in China. The study aims to assess the impact of Cervarix on HPV infection and cervical related diseases in real world.

Methods

This is a prospective, multi-age birth cohort study to investigate the incidence and continuous status of HPV infection, and relevant cervical diseases by exposure status (with Cervarix vaccination history or without any HPV vaccination history). It is planned to recruit 12,118 eligible women at age of 9 to 45 years from vaccination clinics or hospital outpatient clinics, and then follow up them for three years. The standard questionnaire will be used to collect information such as demographic characteristics, menstruation and obstetrical histories, history of sexual behavior, personal behavior history, history of disease and pathogen infection, medication history, and family history at baseline. After three years, the changes of these behaviors will be investigated again, and other related health status information will be retrieved from the electronic health records during the follow-up period. If available physically and legally, the cervical cancer screening will be performed, including type-specific HPV deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing and contingent thinprep cytologic test (TCT) and colposcopy. The free cervical cancer screening will be captured and uploaded timely to the Yinzhou Regional Health Information Platform (YRHIP); therefore, the long-term outcomes of participants will be monitored.

Discussion

This prospective cohort study will assess the impact of HPV vaccine on HPV infection and related cervical diseases in women aged 9–45 years, which makes up for the lack of evidence in Chinese women. The results of this study will provide support for understanding the impact of HPV vaccination in China, and make a contribution to increasing HPV vaccination and cervical cancer screening coverage in China.

Trial registration

This study has been retrospectively registered on clinicaltrials.gov (NCT05341284) on April 22, 2022.

[Real-world evidence and randomized controlled trials: the initiation, implementation, progress interpretation and revelation of RCT DUPLICATE (part 1)]

In recent years, researchers, pharmaceutical companies, and political makers gradually using more real-world data (RWD) to produce real-world evidence (RWE) for policy-making. A research team of Harvard University launched the RCT DUPLICATE project in 2018, aiming to replicate 30 randomized controlled trials using the medical claims database in order to explore methods for quantifying the efficacy-effectiveness gap and explain its potential sources, to enhance the credibility of the RWE. This paper reviews the background of RCT DUPLICATE Initiative, highlights the research purposes, research design and implementation process of the RCT DUPLICATE Initiative, to help domestic scholars better understand the scope and application value of RWE.

[Real-world evidence and randomized controlled trials: the initiation, implementation, progress interpretation and revelation of RCT DUPLICATE (part 2)]

With the promotion and application of big medical data, non-interventional real-world evidence (RWE) has been used by regulators to assess the effectiveness of medical products. This paper briefly introduces the latest progress and research results of the RCT DUPLICATE Initiative launched by the research team of Harvard University in 2018 and summarizes relevant research experience based on the characteristics of China's medical service to provide inspiration and reference for domestic scholars to conduct related RWE research in the future.

Sex differences in the association between the change in triglyceride‑glucose index and cognitive decline: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Previous studies indicated that insulin resistance (IR) was related to cognitive decline. This study aimed to investigate whether triglyceride-glucose (TyG) as a surrogate marker of IR can detect the association between IR and cognitive decline, and explore sex-specific association between the longitudinal change in TyG index and cognitive decline in the middle-aged and elderly population in China.

METHODS

Data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, which include 2358 females and 2062 males, were used. The TyG index was calculated as ln (fasting triglyceride [mg/dL] × fasting blood glucose [mg/dL] / 2). Cognitive score was measured by word recall test and mental status test. Logistic regression was used to assess the association between change in TyG index and cognitive decline in men and women from 2011 to 2015, respectively. Subgroup analysis by age was also performed.

RESULTS

The fourth quartile of change in TyG index was significantly associated with the increased risk of decline in global cognition compared with the first quartile in men [odds ratio (OR) 1.32, 95 % CI 1.03 to 1.71]. Stratified by age groups, the significant association between TyG index and cognitive decline was only found in men aged under 60 years old (OR 1.51, 95 % CI 1.07 to 2.13).

LIMITATIONS

We only observed the association between TyG index and cognitive decline, but not the severity of the decline.

CONCLUSIONS

The increased TyG index is related to the risk of cognitive decline in men. This study provided new evidence for formulating sex-specific prevention and treatment strategies for cognitive decline.