Predictors of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir receipt among COVID-19 patients in a large US health system

A clear understanding of real-world uptake of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir for treatment of SARS-CoV-2 can inform treatment allocation strategies and improve interpretation of effectiveness studies. We used data from a large US healthcare system to describe nirmatrelvir-ritonavir dispenses among all SARS-CoV-2 positive patients aged ≥ 12 years meeting recommended National Institutes of Health treatment eligibility criteria for the study period between 1 January and 31 December, 2022. Overall, 10.9% (N = 34,791/319,900) of treatment eligible patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections received nirmatrelvir-ritonavir over the study period. Although uptake of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir increased over time, by the end of 2022, less than a quarter of treatment eligible patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections had received nirmatrelvir-ritonavir. Across patient demographics, treatment was generally consistent with tiered treatment guidelines, with dispenses concentrated among patients aged ≥ 65 years (14,706/63,921; 23.0%), and with multiple comorbidities (10,989/54,431; 20.1%). However, neighborhoods of lower socioeconomic status (upper third of neighborhood deprivation index [NDI]) had between 12% (95% CI: 7-18%) and 28% (25-32%) lower odds of treatment dispense over the time periods studied compared to the lower third of NDI distribution, even after accounting for demographic and clinical characteristics. A limited chart review (N = 40) confirmed that in some cases a decision not to treat was appropriate and aligned with national guidelines to use clinical judgement on a case-by-case basis. There is a need to enhance patient and provider awareness on the availability and benefits of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir for the treatment of COVID-19 illness.

Obesity Disparities Among Adult Single-Race and Multiracial Asian and Pacific Islander Populations

Importance

Despite increasing numbers of multiracial individuals, they are often excluded in studies or aggregated within larger race and ethnicity groups due to small sample sizes.

Objective

To examine disparities in the prevalence of obesity among single-race and multiracial Asian and Pacific Islander individuals compared with non-Hispanic White (hereafter, White) individuals.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cross-sectional study used electronic health record (EHR) data linked to social determinants of health and health behavior data for adult (age ≥18 years) members of 2 large health care systems in California and Hawai'i who had at least 1 ambulatory visit to a primary care practitioner between January 1, 2006, and December 31, 2018. Data were analyzed from October 31, 2022, to July 31, 2023.

Exposure

Self-identified race and ethnicity provided in the EHR as a single-race category (Asian Indian, Chinese, Filipino, Japanese, Native Hawaiian only, Other Pacific Islander, or White) or a multiracial category (Asian and Pacific Islander; Asian, Pacific Islander, and White; Asian and White; or Pacific Islander and White).

Main Outcomes and Measures

The main outcome was obesity (body mass index [BMI] ≥30.0), based on last measured height and weight from the EHR. Logistic regression was used to examine the association between race and ethnicity and odds of obesity.

Results

A total of 5229 individuals (3055 [58.4%] male; mean [SD] age, 70.73 [11.51] years) were examined, of whom 444 (8.5%) were Asian Indian; 1091 (20.9%), Chinese; 483 (9.2%), Filipino; 666 (12.7%), Japanese; 91 (1.7%), Native Hawaiian; 95 (1.8%), Other Pacific Islander; and 888 (17.0%), White. The percentages of individuals who identified as multiracial were as follows: 417 (8.0%) were Asian and Pacific Islander; 392 (7.5%), Asian, Pacific Islander, and White; 248 (4.7%), Asian and White; and 414 (7.9%), Pacific Islander and White. A total of 1333 participants (25.5%) were classified as having obesity based on standard BMI criteria. Obesity was highest among people who identified as Asian, Pacific Islander, and White (204 of 392 [52.0%]) followed by those who identified as Other Pacific Islander (47 of 95 [49.5%]), Native Hawaiian (44 of 91 [48.4%]), and Pacific Islander and White (186 of 414 [44.9%]). After accounting for demographic, socioeconomic, and health behavior factors, people who identified as Asian, Pacific Islander, and White (odds ratio [OR], 1.80; 95% CI, 1.37-2.38) or Pacific Islander and White (OR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.18-2.04) had increased odds of obesity compared with White individuals. All single-race Asian groups had lower odds of obesity compared with White individuals: Asian Indian (OR, 0.29; 95% CI, 0.20-0.40), Chinese (OR, 0.22; 95% CI, 0.17-0.29), Filipino (OR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.35-0.62), and Japanese (OR, 0.38, 95% CI, 0.29-0.50).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study, multiracial Asian and Pacific Islander individuals had an increased prevalence of obesity compared with many of their single-race counterparts. As the number of multiracial individuals increases, it will be important for clinical and public health systems to track disparities in these populations.

Effectiveness of BNT162b2 BA.4/5 bivalent mRNA vaccine against a range of COVID-19 outcomes in a large health system in the USA: a test-negative case-control study

BACKGROUND

XBB-related omicron sublineages have recently replaced BA.4/5 as the predominant omicron sublineages in the USA and other regions globally. Despite preliminary signs of immune evasion of XBB sublineages, few data exist describing the real-world effectiveness of bivalent COVID-19 vaccines, especially against XBB-related illness. We aimed to investigate the effectiveness of the Pfizer--BioNTech BNT162b2 BA.4/5 bivalent vaccine against both BA.4/5-related and XBB-related disease in adults aged 18 years or older.

METHODS

In this test-negative case-control study, we estimated the effectiveness of the BNT162b2 BA.4/5 bivalent vaccine using data from electronic health records of Kaiser Permanente Southern California health system members aged 18 years or older who received at least two doses of the wild-type COVID-19 mRNA vaccines. Participants sought care for acute respiratory infection between Aug 31, 2022, and April 15, 2023, and were tested for SARS-CoV-2 via PCR tests. Relative vaccine effectiveness (≥2 doses of wild-type mRNA vaccine plus a BNT162b2 BA.4/5 bivalent booster vs ≥2 doses of a wild-type mRNA vaccine alone) and absolute vaccine effectiveness (vs unvaccinated individuals) was estimated against critical illness related to acute respiratory infection (intensive care unit [ICU] admission, mechanical ventilation, or inpatient death), hospital admission, emergency department or urgent care visits, and in-person outpatient encounters with odds ratios from logistic regression models adjusted for demographic and clinical factors. We stratified vaccine effectiveness estimates for hospital admission, emergency department or urgent care visits, and outpatient encounters by omicron sublineage (ie, likely BA.4/5-related vs likely XBB-related), time since bivalent booster receipt, age group, number of wild-type doses received, and immunocompromised status. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04848584).

FINDINGS

Analyses were conducted for 123 419 encounters (24 246 COVID-19 cases and 99 173 test-negative controls), including 4131 episode of critical illness (a subset of hospital admissions), 14 529 hospital admissions, 63 566 emergency department or urgent care visits, and 45 324 outpatient visits. 20 555 infections were BA.4/5 related and 3691 were XBB related. In adjusted analyses, relative vaccine effectiveness for those who received the BNT162b2 BA.4/5 bivalent booster compared with those who received at least two doses of a wild-type mRNA vaccine alone was an additional 50% (95% CI 23-68) against critical illness, an additional 39% (28-49) against hospital admission, an additional 35% (30-40) against emergency department or urgent care visits, and an additional 28% (22-33) against outpatient encounters. Waning of the bivalent booster from 0-3 months to 4-7 months after vaccination was evident for outpatient outcomes but was not detected for critical illness, hospital admission, and emergency department or urgent care outcomes. The relative effectiveness of the BNT162b2 BA.4/5 bivalent booster for XBB-related infections compared with BA.4/5-related infections was 56% (95% CI 12-78) versus 40% (27-50) for hospital admission; 34% (21-45) versus 36% (30-41) against emergency department or urgent care visits; and 29% (19-38) versus 27% (20-33) for outpatient encounters.

INTERPRETATION

By mid-April, 2023, individuals previously vaccinated only with wild-type vaccines had little protection against COVID-19-including hospital admission. A BNT162b2 BA.4/5 bivalent booster restored protection against a range of COVID-19 outcomes, including against XBB-related sublineages, with the most substantial protection observed against hospital admission and critical illness.

FUNDING

Pfizer.

Receipt of BNT162b2 Vaccine and COVID-19 Ambulatory Visits in US Children Younger Than 5 Years

This study examines the association of the receipt of wild-type BNT162b2 vaccine with medically attended COVID-19 outcomes among children younger than 5 years in the US.

Development of an Electronic Health Record-Based Algorithm for Predicting Lung Cancer Screening Eligibility in the Population-Based Research to Optimize the Screening Process Lung Research Consortium

PURPOSE

Lung cancer screening (LCS) guidelines in the United States recommend LCS for those age 50-80 years with at least 20 pack-years smoking history who currently smoke or quit within the last 15 years. We tested the performance of simple smoking-related criteria derived from electronic health record (EHR) data and developed and tested the performance of a multivariable model in predicting LCS eligibility.

METHODS

Analyses were completed within the Population-based Research to Optimize the Screening Process Lung Consortium (PROSPR-Lung). In our primary validity analyses, the reference standard LCS eligibility was based on self-reported smoking data collected via survey. Within one PROSPR-Lung health system, we used a training data set and penalized multivariable logistic regression using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator to select EHR-based variables into the prediction model including demographics, smoking history, diagnoses, and prescription medications. A separate test data set assessed model performance. We also conducted external validation analysis in a separate health system and reported AUC, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and accuracy metrics associated with the Youden Index.

RESULTS

There were 14,214 individuals with survey data to assess LCS eligibility in primary analyses. The overall performance for assigning LCS eligibility status as measured by the AUC values at the two health systems was 0.940 and 0.938. At the Youden Index cutoff value, performance metrics were as follows: accuracy, 0.855 and 0.895; sensitivity, 0.886 and 0.920; specificity, 0.896 and 0.850; PPV, 0.357 and 0.444; and NPV, 0.988 and 0.992.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that health systems can use an EHR-derived multivariable prediction model to aid in the identification of those who may be eligible for LCS.

Prevalence of cardiovascular disease among Asian, Pacific Islander and multi-race populations in Hawai'i and California

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the leading cause of death in the US. CVD incidence is influenced by many demographic, clinical, cultural, and psychosocial factors, including race and ethnicity. Despite recent research, there remain limitations on understanding CVD health among Asians and Pacific Islanders (APIs), particularly some subgroups and multi-racial populations. Combining diverse API populations into one study group and difficulties in defining API subpopulations and multi-race individuals have hampered efforts to identify and address health disparities in these growing populations.

METHODS

The study cohort was comprised of all adult patients at Kaiser Permanente Hawai'i and Palo Alto Medical Foundation in California during 2014-2018 (n = 684,363). EHR-recorded ICD-9 and ICD-10 diagnosis codes were used to indicate coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, peripheral vascular disease (PVD), and overall CVD. Self-reported race and ethnicity data were used to construct 12 mutually exclusive single and multi-race groups, and a Non-Hispanic White (NHW) comparison group. Logistic regression models were used to derive prevalence estimates, odds ratios, and confidence intervals for the 12 race/ethnicity groups.

RESULTS

The prevalence of CHD and PVD varied 4-fold and stroke and overall CVD prevalence varied 3-fold across API subpopulations. Among Asians, the Filipino subgroup had the highest prevalence of all three CVD conditions and overall CVD. Chinese people had the lowest prevalence of CHD, PVD and overall CVD. In comparison to Native Hawaiians, Other Pacific Islanders had significantly higher prevalence of CHD. For the multi-race groups that included Native Hawaiians and Other Pacific Islanders, the prevalence of overall CVD was significantly higher than that for either single-race Native Hawaiians or Other Pacific Islanders. The multi-race Asian + White group had significantly higher overall CVD prevalence than both the NHW group and the highest Asian subgroup (Filipinos).

CONCLUSIONS

Study findings revealed significant differences in overall CVD, CHD, stroke, and PVD among API subgroups. In addition to elevated risk among Filipino, Native Hawaiian, and Other Pacific Islander groups, the study identified particularly elevated risk among multi-race API groups. Differences in disease prevalence are likely mirrored in other cardiometabolic conditions, supporting the need to disaggregate API subgroups in health research.

Effectiveness and durability of BNT162b2 vaccine against hospital and emergency department admissions due to SARS-CoV-2 omicron sub-lineages BA.1 and BA.2 in a large health system in the USA: a test-negative, case-control study

BACKGROUND

The SARS-CoV-2 omicron (B.1.1.529 BA.1) lineage was first detected in November, 2021, and is associated with reduced vaccine effectiveness. By March, 2022, BA.1 had been replaced by sub-lineage BA.2 in the USA. As new variants evolve, vaccine performance must be continually assessed. We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness and durability of BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) against hospital and emergency department admissions for BA.1 and BA.2.

METHODS

In this test-negative, case-control study, we sourced data from the electronic health records of adult (aged ≥18 years) members of Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC), which is a health-care system in the USA, who were admitted to one of 15 KPSC hospitals or emergency departments (without subsequent hospitalisation) between Dec 27, 2021, and June 4, 2022, with an acute respiratory infection and were tested for SARS-CoV-2 by RT-PCR. Omicron sub-lineage was determined by use of sequencing, spike gene target failure, and the predominance of variants in certain time periods. Our main outcome was the effectiveness of two or three doses of BNT162b2 in preventing emergency department or hospital admission. Variant-specific vaccine effectiveness was evaluated by comparing the odds ratios from logistic regression models of vaccination between test-positive cases and test-negative controls, adjusting for the month of admission, age, sex, race and ethnicity, body-mass index, Charlson Comorbidity Index, previous influenza or pneumococcal vaccines, and previous SARS-CoV-2 infection. We also assessed effectiveness by the time since vaccination. This study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04848584, and is ongoing.

FINDINGS

Of 65 813 total admissions during the study period, we included 16 994 in our analyses, of which 7435 were due to BA.1, 1056 were due to BA.2, and 8503 were not due to SARS-CoV-2. In adjusted analyses, two-dose vaccine effectiveness was 40% (95% CI 27 to 50) for hospitalisation and 29% (18 to 38) for emergency department admission against BA.1 and 56% (31 to 72) for hospitalisation and 16% (-5 to 33) for emergency department admission against BA.2. Three-dose vaccine effectiveness was 79% (74 to 83) for hospitalisation and 72% (67 to 77) for emergency department admission against BA.1 and 71% (55 to 81) for hospitalisation and 21% (1 to 37) for emergency department admission against BA.2. Less than 3 months after the third dose, vaccine effectiveness was 80% (74 to 84) for hospitalisation and 74% (69 to 78) for emergency department admission against BA.1. Vaccine effectiveness 3 months or more after the third dose was 76% (69 to 82) against BA.1-related hospitalisation and 65% (56 to 73) against BA.1-related emergency department admission. Against BA.2, vaccine effectiveness was 74% (47 to 87) for hospitalisation and 59% (40 to 72) for emergency department admission at less than 3 months after the third dose and 70% (53 to 81) for hospitalisation and 5% (-21 to 25) for emergency department admission at 3 months or more after the third dose.

INTERPRETATION

Two doses of BNT162b2 provided only partial protection against BA.1-related and BA.2-related hospital and emergency department admission, which underscores the need for booster doses against omicron. Although three doses offered high levels of protection (≥70%) against hospitalisation, variant-adapted vaccines are probably needed to improve protection against less severe endpoints, like emergency department admission, especially for BA.2.

FUNDING

Pfizer.

BNT162b2 against COVID-19-associated Emergency Department and Urgent Care Visits among Children 5-11 Years of Age: a Test Negative Design

In a 1:1 matched test-negative design among 5-11-year-olds in the Kaiser Permanente Southern California health system (n=3984), BNT162b2 effectiveness against omicron-related emergency department or urgent care encounters was 60% [95%CI: 47-69] <3 months post-dose-two and 28% [8-43] after ≥3 months. A booster improved protection to 77% [53-88].

Analysis of mRNA COVID-19 Vaccine Uptake Among Immunocompromised Individuals in a Large US Health System

Importance

Immunocompromised individuals are at increased risk for severe outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Given the varying and complex nature of COVID-19 vaccination recommendations, it is important to understand COVID-19 vaccine uptake in this vulnerable population.

Objective

To assess mRNA COVID-19 vaccine uptake and factors associated with uptake among immunocompromised individuals from December 14, 2020, through August 6, 2022.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study was conducted with patients of Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC), an integrated health care system in the US. The study included patients aged 18 years or older who were immunocompromised (individuals with an immunocompromising condition or patients who received immunosuppressive medications in the year prior to December 14, 2020) and still met criteria for being immunocompromised 1 year later.

Exposures

Age, sex, self-identified race and ethnicity, prior positive COVID-19 test result, immunocompromising condition, immunomodulating medication, comorbidities, health care utilization, and neighborhood median income.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Outcomes were the number of doses of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine received and the factors associated with receipt of at least 4 doses, estimated by hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% Wald CIs via Cox proportional hazards regression. Statistical analyses were conducted between August 9 and 23, 2022.

Results

Overall, 42 697 immunocompromised individuals met the study eligibility criteria. Among these, 18 789 (44.0%) were aged 65 years or older; 20 061 (47.0%) were women and 22 635 (53.0%) were men. With regard to race and ethnicity, 4295 participants (10.1%) identified as Asian or Pacific Islander, 5174 (12.1%) as Black, 14 289 (33.5%) as Hispanic, and 17 902 (41.9%) as White. As of the end of the study period and after accounting for participant censoring due to death or disenrollment from the KPSC health plan, 78.0% of immunocompromised individuals had received a third dose of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine. Only 41.0% had received a fourth dose, which corresponds to a primary series and a monovalent booster dose for immunocompromised individuals. Uptake of a fifth dose was only 0.9% following the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommendation to receive a second monovalent booster (ie, fifth dose). Adults aged 65 years or older (HR, 3.95 [95% CI, 3.70-4.22]) were more likely to receive at least 4 doses compared with those aged 18 to 44 years or 45 to 64 years (2.52 [2.36-2.69]). Hispanic and non-Hispanic Black adults (HR, 0.77 [95% CI, 0.74-0.80] and 0.82 [0.78-0.87], respectively, compared with non-Hispanic White adults), individuals with prior documented SARS-CoV-2 infection (0.71 [0.62-0.81] compared with those without), and individuals receiving high-dose corticosteroids (0.88 [0.81-0.95] compared with those who were not) were less likely to receive at least 4 doses.

Conclusions and Relevance

These findings suggest that adherence to CDC mRNA monovalent COVID-19 booster dose recommendations among immunocompromised individuals was low. Given the increased risk for severe COVID-19 in this vulnerable population and the well-established additional protection afforded by booster doses, targeted and tailored efforts to ensure that immunocompromised individuals remain up to date with COVID-19 booster dose recommendations are warranted.

First year infant weight trajectories predict overweight/obesity at age 2 in a diverse population

BACKGROUND

Obesity is emerging as early as two years of age and risk may be elucidated by differences in infant growth trajectories. We examined infant weight gain in the first year of life and association with overweight/obesity at age two.

METHODS

In a diverse, population-based cohort study we conducted growth curve analysis using Health Maintenance Organization electronic medical record data from January 1, 2012 through December 31, 2013.

RESULTS

Among 930 infants, there was a linear relationship with birth weight and initial weight gain from birth and increased odds of developing overweight/obesity at age two [Odds Ratio OR = 1.001; (95% CI: 1.000-1.002), p = 0.0274] and [OR = 1.009; (1.006-1.01), p = 0.0001) respectively. The odds of becoming overweight/obese at age 2 increased in infants who had slower weight deceleration rates (OR third quartile = 2.78, fourth quartile = 4.3) compared to the first quartile. Other factors associated with overweight/obesity risk at age two included female sex and Native Hawaiian race/ethnicity.

CONCLUSIONS

Rate of weight gain in the first year may be an important risk factor for early childhood obesity. A deeper dive into first year growth patterns and related sociocultural and nutritional factors is needed to inform targetable points for intervention.

Effectiveness Associated With BNT162b2 Vaccine Against Emergency Department and Urgent Care Encounters for Delta and Omicron SARS-CoV-2 Infection Among Adolescents Aged 12 to 17 Years

Importance

Data about the duration of protection of 2 and 3 doses of BNT162b2 in children and adolescents are needed to help inform recommendations for boosters in this age group.

Objective

To evaluate vaccine effectiveness (VE) and durability associated with 2 doses of BNT162b2 against Delta- and Omicron-related emergency department (ED) and urgent care (UC) encounters among adolescents aged 12 to 17 years and to estimate VE associated with 3 doses against these same outcomes.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This test-negative case-control study was conducted at Kaiser Permanente Southern California, an integrated health care system using electronic health records in the US. Participants included Kaiser Permanente Southern California members ages 12 to 17 years with an ED or UC encounter from November 1, 2021, through March 18, 2022, for acute respiratory infection who were tested for SARS-CoV-2 via a reverse transction-polymerase chain reaction test. Analyses were conducted from March 21 to June 22, 2022.

Exposures

BNT162b2 vaccination status ascertained from electronic health records and state registry data.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The main outcome was VE associated with BNT162b2 against ED and UC encounters related to Delta or Omicron variant SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Results

Analyses were conducted among 3168 adolescents, including 1004 with ED visits and 2164 with UC visits. Median (IQR) age was 15 (13-16) years, and 1461 (46.1%) were boys. In adjusted analyses, VE associated with 2 doses of BNT162b2 against ED or UC encounters was highest within the first 2 months for both Delta (89% [95% CI, 69% to 96%]) and Omicron (73% [95% CI, 54% to 84%]) variants but waned to 49% (95% CI, 27% to 65%) for the Delta variant and 16% (95% CI, -7% to 34%) for the Omicron variant at 6 months and beyond. A third dose of BNT162b2 was associated with improved protection against the Omicron variant (87% [95% CI, 72% to 94%]) after a median (IQR) of 19 (9-32) days after dose 3.

Conclusions and Relevance

These findings suggest that 2 doses of the BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine were associated with high levels of protection against ED and UC encounters related to the Delta and Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2 in the first few months after vaccination. However, effectiveness waned over time, especially against Omicron. A third dose of BNT162b2 was associated with improved protection against Omicron beyond that seen initially after 2 doses, underscoring the importance of boosters for adolescents aged 12 to 17 years.

Incidence of Nontuberculous Mycobacterial Pulmonary Infection, by Ethnic Group, Hawaii, USA, 2005-2019

To further clarify differences in the risk for nontuberculous mycobacterial pulmonary infection (NTM-PI) among ethnic populations in Hawaii, USA, we conducted a retrospective cohort study among beneficiaries of Kaiser Permanente Hawaii (KPH). We abstracted demographic, socioeconomic, clinical, and microbiological data from KPH electronic health records for 2005-2019. An NTM-PI case-patient was defined as a person from whom >1 NTM pulmonary isolate was obtained. We performed Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate incidence of NTM-PI while controlling for confounders. Across ethnic groups, risk for NTM-PI was higher among persons who were underweight (body mass index [BMI] <18.5 kg/m²). Among beneficiaries who self-identified as any Asian ethnicity, risk for incident NTM-PI was increased by 30%. Low BMI may increase susceptibility to NTM-PI, and risk may be higher for persons who self-identify as Asian, independent of BMI.

Effectiveness of a third dose of BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine in a large US health system: A retrospective cohort study

Background

Globally, recommendations are expanding for third (booster) doses of BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech). In the United States, as of November 19, 2021, boosters were recommended for all adults aged 18 years and older. We evaluated the effectiveness of a third dose of BNT162b2 among adults in a large US integrated health system.

Methods

In this retrospective cohort study, we analyzed electronic health records from Kaiser Permanente Southern California between Dec 14, 2020 and Dec 5, 2021 to assess vaccine effectiveness (VE) of two and three doses of BNT162b2 against SARS-CoV-2 infections (without hospital admission) andCOVID-19-related hospital admission. VE was calculated using hazards ratios from adjusted Cox models.

Findings

After only two doses, VE against infection declined from 85% (95% CI 83-86) during the first month to 49% (46-51) ≥ 7 months following vaccination. Overall VE against hospitalization was 90% (95% CI 86-92) within one month and did not wane, however, effectiveness against hospitalization appeared to wane among immunocompromised individuals but was not statistically significant (93% [72-98] at 1 month to 74% [45-88] after ≥ 7 months; p=0·490). Three-dose VE (median follow-up 1·3 months [SD 0·6]) was 88% (95% CI 86-89) against infection and 97% (95-98) against hospitalization. Effectiveness after three doses was higher than that seen one month after receiving only two doses for both outcomes. Relative VE of three doses compared to two (with at least six months after the second dose) was 75% (95% CI 71-78) against infections and 70% (48-83) against hospital admissions.

Interpretation

These data support the benefit of broad BNT162b2 booster recommendations, as three doses confers comparable, if not better, protection against SARS-CoV-2 infections and hospital admission as was seen soon after receiving two doses.

Funding

Pfizer Inc.

Lung Cancer Screening by Race and Ethnicity in an Integrated Health System in Hawaii

Importance

Racial and ethnic differences in lung cancer screening (LCS) completion and follow-up may be associated with lung cancer incidence and mortality rates among high-risk populations. Aggregation of Asian American, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander racial and ethnic groups may mask the true underlying disparities in screening uptake and diagnostic follow-up, creating barriers for targeted, preventive health care.

Objective

To examine racial and ethnic differences in LCS completion and follow-up rates in a multiethnic population.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This population-based cohort study was conducted at a health maintenance organization in Hawaii. LCS program participants were identified using electronic medical records from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2019. Study eligibility requirements included being aged 55 to 79 years, a 30 pack-year smoking history, a current smoker or having quit within the past 15 years, at least 5 years past any lung cancer diagnosis and treatment, and cancer free. Data analysis was performed from June 2019 to October 2020.

Exposure

Eligible for LCS.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Screening rates were analyzed by self-reported race and ethnicity and completion of a low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) test. Diagnostic follow-up results were based on the Lung Imaging Reporting and Data System (Lung-RADS) staging system.

Results

A total of 1030 eligible LCS program members had an order placed; their mean (SD) age was 65.5 (5.8) years, and 633 (61%) were men. The largest racial and ethnic groups were non-Hispanic White (381 participants [37.0%]), Native Hawaiian or part Native Hawaiian (186 participants [18.1%]), and Japanese (146 participants [14.2%]). Men and Filipino, Chinese, Japanese, and non-Hispanic White individuals had a higher proportion of screen orders for LDCT compared with women and individuals of the other racial and ethnic groups. The overall LCS completion rate was 81% (838 participants). There was a 14% to 15% screening completion rate gap among groups. Asian individuals had the highest screening completion rate (266 participants [86%]) followed by Native Hawaiian (149 participants [80%]) and non-Hispanic White individuals (305 participants [80%]), Pacific Islander (50 participants [79%]) individuals, and individuals of other racial and ethnic groups (68 participants [77%]). Within Asian subgroups, Korean (31 participants [94%]) and Japanese (129 participants [88%]) individuals had the highest completion rates followed by Chinese individuals (28 participants [82%]) and Filipino individuals (78 participants [79%]). Of the 54 participants with Lung-RADS stage 3 disease, 93% (50 participants) completed a 6-month surveillance LDCT test; of 37 individuals with Lung-RADS stage 4 disease, 35 (97%) were followed-up for additional procedures.

Conclusions and Relevance

This cohort study found racial and ethnic disparities in LCS completion rates after disaggregation of Native Hawaiian, Pacific Islander, and Asian individuals and their subgroups. These findings suggest that future research is needed to understand factors that may be associated with LCS completion and follow-up behaviors among these racial and ethnic groups.

Effectiveness of mRNA BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine up to 6 months in a large integrated health system in the USA: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Vaccine effectiveness studies have not differentiated the effect of the delta (B.1.617.2) variant and potential waning immunity in observed reductions in effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infections. We aimed to evaluate overall and variant-specific effectiveness of BNT162b2 (tozinameran, Pfizer-BioNTech) against SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19-related hospital admissions by time since vaccination among members of a large US health-care system.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study, we analysed electronic health records of individuals (≥12 years) who were members of the health-care organisation Kaiser Permanente Southern California (CA, USA), to assess BNT162b2 vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19-related hospital admissions for up to 6 months. Participants were required to have 1 year or more previous membership of the organisation. Outcomes comprised SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive tests and COVID-19-related hospital admissions. Effectiveness calculations were based on hazard ratios from adjusted Cox models. This study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04848584.

FINDINGS

Between Dec 14, 2020, and Aug 8, 2021, of 4 920 549 individuals assessed for eligibility, we included 3 436 957 (median age 45 years [IQR 29-61]; 1 799 395 [52·4%] female and 1 637 394 [47·6%] male). For fully vaccinated individuals, effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infections was 73% (95% CI 72-74) and against COVID-19-related hospital admissions was 90% (89-92). Effectiveness against infections declined from 88% (95% CI 86-89) during the first month after full vaccination to 47% (43-51) after 5 months. Among sequenced infections, vaccine effectiveness against infections of the delta variant was high during the first month after full vaccination (93% [95% CI 85-97]) but declined to 53% [39-65] after 4 months. Effectiveness against other (non-delta) variants the first month after full vaccination was also high at 97% (95% CI 95-99), but waned to 67% (45-80) at 4-5 months. Vaccine effectiveness against hospital admissions for infections with the delta variant for all ages was high overall (93% [95% CI 84-96]) up to 6 months.

INTERPRETATION

Our results provide support for high effectiveness of BNT162b2 against hospital admissions up until around 6 months after being fully vaccinated, even in the face of widespread dissemination of the delta variant. Reduction in vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infections over time is probably primarily due to waning immunity with time rather than the delta variant escaping vaccine protection.

FUNDING

Pfizer.

Weight changes according to treatment in a diverse cohort of breast cancer patients

BACKGROUND

Weight changes are common among breast cancer patients. The majority of studies to date have focused on weight gain after a breast cancer diagnosis and its implications on health in survivors. Fewer studies have examined weight loss and its related characteristics. Weight changes have been reported to be influenced by several factors such as age, treatment, stage and pre-diagnostic weight. We evaluated weight changes during key treatment time points in early stage breast cancer patients.

METHODS

We characterized 389 female patients diagnosed in Hawaii with early stage breast cancer from 2003 to 2017 in the Multiethnic Cohort (MEC) linked with Kaiser Permanente Hawaii electronic medical record data. We evaluated weight changes from surgery to 4 years post-diagnosis with six time points along a patient's treatment trajectory (chemotherapy, radiation, endocrine, or surgery alone) and annually thereafter, adjusting for age, race/ethnicity and initial body mass index (BMI).

RESULTS

We found key time points of significant weight change for breast cancer patients according to their adjuvant treatment. In patients who had surgery alone (S), surgery-radiation (SR), or surgery-endocrine therapy (SE), the majority of patients had stable weight, although this consistently decreased over time. However, the percentages of patients with weight loss and weight gain during this time steadily increased up to 4 years after initial surgery. Weight loss was more common than weight gain by about 2 fold in these treatment groups. For patients with surgery-chemotherapy (SC), there was significant weight loss seen within the first 3 months after surgery, during the time when patients receive chemotherapy. And this weight loss persisted until year 4. Weight gain was less commonly seen in this treatment group.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified key time points during breast cancer treatment that may provide a therapeutic window to positively influence outcomes. Tailored weight management interventions should be utilized to promote overall health and long term survivorship.

Fall Ascertainment and Development of a Risk Prediction Model Using Electronic Medical Records

OBJECTIVES

To examine the use of electronic medical record (EMR) data to ascertain falls and develop a fall risk prediction model in an older population.

DESIGN

Retrospective longitudinal study using 10 years of EMR data (2004-2014). A series of 3-year cohorts included members continuously enrolled for a minimum of 3 years, requiring 2 years pre-fall (no previous record of a fall) and a 1-year fall risk period.

SETTING

Kaiser Permanente Hawaii, an ambulatory setting.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 57 678 adults, age 60 years and older.

MEASUREMENTS

Initial EMR searches were guided by current literature and geriatricians to understand coding sources of falls as our outcome. Falls were captured by two coding sources: International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9) codes (E880-889) and/or a fall listed as a "primary reason for visit." A comprehensive list of EMR predictors of falls were included into prediction models enabling statistical subset selection from many variables and modeling by logistic regression.

RESULTS

Although 72% of falls in the training data set were coded as "primary reason for visit," 22% of falls were coded as ICD-9 and 6% coded as both. About 80% were reported in face-to-face encounters (eg, emergency department). A total of 2164 individuals had a fall in the risk period. Using the 13 key predictors (age, comorbidities, female sex, other mental disorder, walking issues, Parkinson's disease, urinary incontinence, depression, polypharmacy, psychotropic and anticonvulsant medications, osteoarthritis, osteoporosis) identified through LASSO regression, the final model had a sensitivity of 67%, specificity of 69%, positive predictive value of 8%, negative predictive value of 98%, and area under the curve of .74.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrated how the EMR can be used to ascertain falls and develop a fall risk prediction model with moderate sensitivity/specificity. Concurrent work with clinical providers to enhance fall documentation will improve the ability of the EMR to capture falls and consequently may improve the model to predict fall risk.

A Randomized Controlled Trial of Financial Incentives for Medicaid Beneficiaries with Diabetes

BACKGROUND

The Medicaid Incentives for Prevention of Chronic Diseases program was authorized by the Affordable Care Act to determine the effectiveness of providing financial incentives.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the impact of incentives on adult Medicaid beneficiaries' diabetes self-management using the Hawaii Patient Reward And Incentives to Support Empowerment project.

METHODS

A randomized controlled trial study was conducted at Kaiser Permanente Hawaii with 320 participants (159 intervention group/161 control group). Participants could earn up to $320/y of financial incentives, distributed in the form of a debit card. Evaluation measures included 1) clinical outcomes of change in hemoglobin A_1C, blood pressure, and cholesterol; 2) compliance with American Diabetes Association standards; 3) cost effectiveness; 4) quality of life; 5) self-management activities; and 6) satisfaction with incentives.

RESULTS

No significant differences in clinical outcomes were found between groups. There were no differences in observance of American Diabetes Association standards of medical care between the intervention and control group. The project also did not show reduction in health cost. However, participants in the intervention group reported significantly higher adherence with the recommended general diet than those in the control group during the course of the study. They also reported statistically better physical health than their control counterparts at the midpoint of the study; however, the perception of increased physical health didn't sustain to the end of the study. Participants' satisfaction with incentives was high.

CONCLUSION

Overall, this study found no conclusive evidence that financial incentives alone had beneficial effects on improving standards of medical care in diabetes.

Epidemiology of Nontuberculous Mycobacterial Lung Disease and Tuberculosis, Hawaii, USA

Previous studies found Hawaiians and Asian-Americans/Pacific Islanders to be independently at increased risk for nontuberculous mycobacterial pulmonary disease (NTMPD) and tuberculosis (TB). To better understand NTM infection and TB risk patterns in Hawaii, USA, we evaluated data on a cohort of patients in Hawaii for 2005–2013. Period prevalence of NTMPD was highest among Japanese, Chinese, and Vietnamese patients (>300/100,000 persons) and lowest among Native Hawaiians and Other Pacific Islanders (50/100,000). Japanese patients were twice as likely as all other racial/ethnic groups to have Mycobacterium abscessus isolated (adjusted odds ratio 2.0, 95% CI 1.2–3.2) but were not at increased risk for infection with other mycobacteria species. In contrast, incidence of TB was stable and was lowest among Japanese patients (no cases) and highest among Filipino, Korean, and Vietnamese patients (>50/100,000). Substantial differences exist in the epidemiology of NTMPD by race/ethnicity, suggesting behavioral and biologic factors that affect disease susceptibility.

Financial Incentives for Medicaid Beneficiaries With Diabetes: Lessons Learned From HI-PRAISE, an Observational Study and Randomized Controlled Trial

PURPOSE

The Hawaii Patient Reward and Incentives to Support Empowerment (HI-PRAISE) project examined the impact of financial incentives on Medicaid beneficiaries with diabetes.

DESIGN

Observational pre-post study and randomized controlled trial (RCT).

SETTING

Federally qualified health centers (FQHCs) and Hawaii Kaiser Permanente.

PARTICIPANTS

The observational study included 2003 Medicaid beneficiaries with diabetes from FQHCs. The RCT included 320 participants from Kaiser Permanente.

INTERVENTION

Participants could earn up to $320/year of financial incentives for a minimum of 1 year.

MEASURES

(1) Clinical outcomes of change in hemoglobin A_1c (HbA_1c), blood pressure, and cholesterol; (2) compliance with American Diabetes Association (ADA) standards of diabetes care; and (3) cost effectiveness.

ANALYSIS

Generalized estimating equation models were used to assess differences in clinical outcomes. General linear models were utilized to estimate the medical costs per patient/day.

RESULTS

Changes in clinical outcomes in the observational study were statistically significant. Mean HbA_1c decreased from 8.56% to 8.24% ( P < .0001) and low-density lipoprotein decreased from 106.17 mg/dL to 98.55 mg/dL ( P < .0001). No significant differences were found between groups in the RCT. Improved ADA compliance was observed. No reduction in total health cost during the project period was demonstrated.

CONCLUSION

The HI-PRAISE found no conclusive evidence that financial incentives had beneficial effect on diabetes clinical outcomes or cost saving measures.