Reliability of major bleeding events in UK routine data versus clinical trial adjudicated follow-up data

OBJECTIVE

To assess how reliable UK routine data are for ascertaining major bleeding events compared with adjudicated follow-up.

METHODS

The ASCEND (A Study of Cardiovascular Events iN Diabetes) primary prevention trial randomised 15 480 UK people with diabetes to aspirin versus matching placebo. The primary safety outcome was major bleeding (including intracranial haemorrhage, sight-threatening eye bleeding, serious gastrointestinal bleeding and other major bleeding (epistaxis, haemoptysis, haematuria, vaginal and other bleeding)) ascertained by direct-participant mail-based follow-up, with >90% of outcomes undergoing adjudication. Nearly all participants were linked to routinely collected hospitalisation and death data (ie, routine data). An algorithm categorised bleeding events from routine data as major/minor. Kappa statistics were used to assess agreement between data sources, and randomised comparisons were re-run using routine data.

RESULTS

When adjudicated follow-up and routine data were compared, there was agreement for 318 major bleeding events, with routine data identifying 281 additional-potential events, and not identifying 241 participant-reported events (kappa 0.53, 95% CI 0.49 to 0.57). Repeating ASCEND's randomised comparisons using routine data only found estimated relative and absolute effects of allocation to aspirin versus placebo on major bleeding similar to adjudicated follow-up (adjudicated follow-up: aspirin 314 (4.1%) vs placebo 245 (3.2%); rate ratio (RR) 1.29, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.52; absolute excess +6.3/5000 person-years (mean SE±2.1); vs routine data: 327 (4.2%) vs 272 (3.5%); RR 1.21, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.41; absolute excess +5.0/5000 (±2.2)).

CONCLUSIONS

Analyses of the ASCEND randomised trial found that major bleeding events ascertained via UK routine data sources provided relative and absolute treatment effects similar to adjudicated follow-up.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN60635500; NCT00135226.

SCORE2-Diabetes: 10-year cardiovascular risk estimation in type 2 diabetes in Europe

AIMS

To develop and validate a recalibrated prediction model (SCORE2-Diabetes) to estimate the 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in individuals with type 2 diabetes in Europe.

METHODS AND RESULTS

SCORE2-Diabetes was developed by extending SCORE2 algorithms using individual-participant data from four large-scale datasets comprising 229 460 participants (43 706 CVD events) with type 2 diabetes and without previous CVD. Sex-specific competing risk-adjusted models were used including conventional risk factors (i.e. age, smoking, systolic blood pressure, total, and HDL-cholesterol), as well as diabetes-related variables (i.e. age at diabetes diagnosis, glycated haemoglobin [HbA1c] and creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR]). Models were recalibrated to CVD incidence in four European risk regions. External validation included 217 036 further individuals (38 602 CVD events), and showed good discrimination, and improvement over SCORE2 (C-index change from 0.009 to 0.031). Regional calibration was satisfactory. SCORE2-Diabetes risk predictions varied several-fold, depending on individuals' levels of diabetes-related factors. For example, in the moderate-risk region, the estimated 10-year CVD risk was 11% for a 60-year-old man, non-smoker, with type 2 diabetes, average conventional risk factors, HbA1c of 50 mmol/mol, eGFR of 90 mL/min/1.73 m2, and age at diabetes diagnosis of 60 years. By contrast, the estimated risk was 17% in a similar man, with HbA1c of 70 mmol/mol, eGFR of 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, and age at diabetes diagnosis of 50 years. For a woman with the same characteristics, the risk was 8% and 13%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

SCORE2-Diabetes, a new algorithm developed, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of CVD in individuals with type 2 diabetes, enhances identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe.

Body Composition and Risk of Vascular-Metabolic Mortality Risk in 113 000 Mexican Men and Women Without Prior Chronic Disease

Background Body-mass index is the sum of fat mass index (FMI) and lean mass index (LMI), which vary by age, sex, and impact on disease outcomes. We investigated the separate and joint relevance of FMI and LMI with vascular-metabolic causes of death in Mexican adults. Methods and Results A total of 113 025 adults aged 35 to 74 years and free from diabetes or other chronic diseases when recruited into the Mexico City Prospective Study were followed for 19 years. Cox models estimated sex-specific death rate ratios from vascular-metabolic causes after adjustment for confounders and exclusion of the first 5 years of follow-up. To account for the strong correlation between FMI and LMI, additional models estimated rate ratios associated with "residual FMI" and "residual LMI" (ie, the residuals from linear regression analyses of FMI on LMI, or vice versa). In both sexes, higher FMI and LMI were associated with higher risks of vascular-metabolic mortality. For a given (ie, fixed) level of LMI, the rate ratio (95% CI) for vascular-metabolic mortality per 1 kg/m2 higher residual FMI strengthened and was higher in women (1.52 [1.38-1.68]) than in men (1.19 [1.13-1.25]). By contrast, for a given level of FMI, higher residual LMI was inversely associated with vascular-metabolic mortality (rate ratio per 1 kg/m2 0.67 [0.56-0.80] in women and 0.94 [0.90-0.98] in men). Conclusions In this study, higher residual FMI was more strongly associated with vascular-metabolic mortality in women than in men. Conversely, higher residual LMI was inversely associated with vascular-metabolic mortality, particularly in women.

Estimating individual lifetime risk of incident cardiovascular events in adults with Type 2 diabetes: an update and geographical calibration of the DIAbetes Lifetime perspective model (DIAL2)

AIMS

The 2021 European Society of Cardiology cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines recommend the use of (lifetime) risk prediction models to aid decisions regarding intensified preventive treatment options in adults with Type 2 diabetes, e.g. the DIAbetes Lifetime perspective model (DIAL model). The aim of this study was to update the DIAL model using contemporary and representative registry data (DIAL2) and to systematically calibrate the model for use in other European countries.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The DIAL2 model was derived in 467 856 people with Type 2 diabetes without a history of CVD from the Swedish National Diabetes Register, with a median follow-up of 7.3 years (interquartile range: 4.0-10.6 years) and comprising 63 824 CVD (including fatal CVD, non-fatal stroke and non-fatal myocardial infarction) events and 66 048 non-CVD mortality events. The model was systematically recalibrated to Europe's low- and moderate-risk regions using contemporary incidence data and mean risk factor distributions. The recalibrated DIAL2 model was externally validated in 218 267 individuals with Type 2 diabetes from the Scottish Care Information-Diabetes (SCID) and Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). In these individuals, 43 074 CVD events and 27 115 non-CVD fatal events were observed. The DIAL2 model discriminated well, with C-indices of 0.732 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.726-0.739] in CPRD and 0.700 (95% CI 0.691-0.709) in SCID.

CONCLUSION

The recalibrated DIAL2 model provides a useful tool for the prediction of CVD-free life expectancy and lifetime CVD risk for people with Type 2 diabetes without previous CVD in the European low- and moderate-risk regions. These long-term individualized measures of CVD risk are well suited for shared decision-making in clinical practice as recommended by the 2021 CVD ESC prevention guidelines.

Sex and Gender in Randomized Controlled Trials of Adults Receiving Maintenance Dialysis: A Meta-epidemiologic Study

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE

How sex and gender concepts are incorporated into randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in adults with kidney failure receiving maintenance dialysis is largely unknown. We describe these practices in published journal articles as well as investigate the proportion of women and female participants in these studies.

STUDY DESIGN

Meta-epidemiologic study.

SETTING & STUDY POPULATIONS

RCTs in maintenance dialysis.

SELECTION CRITERIA FOR STUDIES

Trials published in high-impact journals in 2000-2020.

DATA EXTRACTION

Implemented in duplicate with conflicts resolved by a third reviewer.

ANALYTICAL APPROACH

Meta-regression was performed to identify trial characteristics independently associated with the proportion of women and female participants.

RESULTS

Among 561 included RCTs, 69.7% were parallel and 28.0% were crossover in design; 80.6% were conducted in the hemodialysis population; and 25% of trials compared the treatment of interest with a placebo arm, 25% with a usual care treatment arm, and 50% with an active alternative therapy arm. Of the RCTS, 37.6% were masked. The median size was 60 (IQR, 26-151) participants, and the median follow-up period was 154 (IQR, 42-365) days. The mean proportion of women or female participants was 0.40±0.13 (SD): 39.0% of trials reported sex, and 26.6% reported the gender of the participants. Also, 56.2% referred to participants as females, 25.3% referred to participants as women, and 15.5% referred to both females and women. No trial characteristic other than region (β of 0.062 [95% CI, 0.007-0.117] for Asia) was associated with the proportion of women or female participants. Considering trial design and conduct, 2.7% of trials used sex and/or gender as an inclusion criterion, 26.6% as an exclusion criterion, 4.5% for randomization, 4.8% for subgroup analyses, and 15.7% for covariate adjustment.

LIMITATIONS

Only high-impact journal articles were studied; and the included studies lacked pediatric trials, those addressing chronic kidney disease or kidney transplantation, any trials from Africa and underrepresentation of other regions, and missing data.

CONCLUSIONS

RCTs in dialysis are representative of the general dialysis population with regard to sex and gender but they uncommonly report both and often do not include either in their reporting or analysis.

Long-term safety and efficacy of anacetrapib in patients with atherosclerotic vascular disease

AIMS

REVEAL was the first randomized controlled trial to demonstrate that adding cholesteryl ester transfer protein inhibitor therapy to intensive statin therapy reduced the risk of major coronary events. We now report results from extended follow-up beyond the scheduled study treatment period.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total of 30 449 adults with prior atherosclerotic vascular disease were randomly allocated to anacetrapib 100 mg daily or matching placebo, in addition to open-label atorvastatin therapy. After stopping the randomly allocated treatment, 26 129 survivors entered a post-trial follow-up period, blind to their original treatment allocation. The primary outcome was first post-randomization major coronary event (i.e. coronary death, myocardial infarction, or coronary revascularization) during the in-trial and post-trial treatment periods, with analysis by intention-to-treat. Allocation to anacetrapib conferred a 9% [95% confidence interval (CI) 3-15%; P = 0.004] proportional reduction in the incidence of major coronary events during the study treatment period (median 4.1 years). During extended follow-up (median 2.2 years), there was a further 20% (95% CI 10-29%; P < 0.001) reduction. Overall, there was a 12% (95% CI 7-17%, P < 0.001) proportional reduction in major coronary events during the overall follow-up period (median 6.3 years), corresponding to a 1.8% (95% CI 1.0-2.6%) absolute reduction. There were no significant effects on non-vascular mortality, site-specific cancer, or other serious adverse events. Morbidity follow-up was obtained for 25 784 (99%) participants.

CONCLUSION

The beneficial effects of anacetrapib on major coronary events increased with longer follow-up, and no adverse effects emerged on non-vascular mortality or morbidity. These findings illustrate the importance of sufficiently long treatment and follow-up duration in randomized trials of lipid-modifying agents to assess their full benefits and potential harms.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number (ISRCTN) 48678192; ClinicalTrials.gov No. NCT01252953; EudraCT No. 2010-023467-18.

Comparison of the Accuracy and Completeness of Records of Serious Vascular Events in Routinely Collected Data vs Clinical Trial-Adjudicated Direct Follow-up Data in the UK: Secondary Analysis of the ASCEND Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

Routinely collected data could substantially decrease the cost of conducting trials.

Objective

To assess the accuracy and completeness of UK routine data for ascertaining serious vascular events (SVEs) compared with adjudicated follow-up data.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This was a secondary analysis of a randomized clinical trial. From June 24, 2005, to July 28, 2011, the ASCEND (A Study of Cardiovascular Events in Diabetes) primary prevention trial used mail-based methods to randomize people with diabetes without evidence of atherosclerotic vascular disease using a 2 × 2 factorial design to aspirin and/or ω-fatty acids vs matching placebo in the UK. Direct participant mail-based follow-up was the main source of outcome data, with more than 90% of the primary outcome events undergoing adjudication. Follow-up was completed on July 31, 2017. In parallel, more than 99% of participants were linked to routinely collected hospital admission and death registry data (ie, routine data), enabling post hoc randomized comparisons of different sources of outcome data (conducted from September 1, 2018, to October 1, 2021).

Interventions

Random allocation to 100 mg of aspirin once daily vs matching placebo and separately to 1 g of ω-3 fatty acids once daily vs placebo.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome consisted of SVEs (a composite of nonfatal myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack [TIA], or vascular death, excluding hemorrhagic stroke).

Results

A total of 15 480 participants were randomized (mean [SD] age, 63 [9] years; 9684 [62.6%] men) and followed up for a mean (SD) of 7.4 (1.8) years. For SVEs, agreement between adjudicated direct follow-up and routine data sources was strong (1401 vs 1127 events; κ = 0.78 [95% CI, 0.76-0.80]; sensitivity, 72.0% [95% CI, 69.7%-74.4%]; specificity, 99.2% [95% CI, 99.0%-99.3%]), and sensitivity improved for SVEs excluding transient ischemic attack (1129 vs 1026 events; sensitivity, 80.6% [95% CI, 78.3%-82.9%]). Rate ratios for the aspirin-randomized comparison for adjudicated direct follow-up vs follow-up solely through routine data alone were 0.88 (95% CI, 0.79-0.97) vs 0.91 (95% CI, 0.81-1.02) for the primary outcome and 0.92 (95% CI, 0.82-1.03) vs 0.91 (95% CI, 0.80-1.02) for SVEs excluding TIA. Results were similar for the ω-3 fatty acid comparison, and adjudication did not seem to markedly change rate ratios.

Conclusions and Relevance

Post hoc analyses of the ASCEND trial suggest that routinely collected hospital admission and death registry data in the UK could be used as the sole method of follow-up for myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke resulting in hospitalization, vascular death, and arterial revascularization in primary prevention cardiovascular trials, without the need for verification by clinical adjudication.

Abdominal and gluteo-femoral markers of adiposity and risk of vascular-metabolic mortality in a prospective study of 150 000 Mexican adults

Aims

Results of previous studies of abdominal adiposity and risk of vascular-metabolic mortality in Hispanic populations have been conflicting. We report results from a large prospective study of Mexican adults with high levels of abdominal adiposity.

Methods and results

A total of 159 755 adults aged ≥35 years from Mexico City were enrolled in a prospective study and followed for 16 years. Cox regression, adjusted for confounders, yielded mortality rate ratios (RRs) associated with three markers of abdominal adiposity (waist circumference, waist–hip ratio, and waist–height ratio) and one marker of gluteo-femoral adiposity (hip circumference) for cause-specific mortality before age 75 years. To reduce reverse causality, deaths in the first 5 years of follow-up and participants with diabetes or other prior chronic disease were excluded. Among 113 163 participants without prior disease and aged 35–74 years at recruitment, all adiposity markers were positively associated with vascular-metabolic mortality. Comparing the top versus bottom tenth of the sex-specific distributions, the vascular-metabolic mortality RRs at ages 40–74 years were 2.32 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.84–2.94] for waist circumference, 2.22 (1.71–2.88) for the waist–hip ratio, 2.63 (2.06–3.36) for the waist–height ratio, and 1.58 (1.29–1.93) for hip circumference. The RRs corresponding to each standard deviation (SD) higher usual levels of these adiposity markers were 1.34 (95% CI 1.27–1.41), 1.31 (1.23–1.39), 1.38 (1.31–1.45), and 1.18 (1.13–1.24), respectively. For the markers of abdominal adiposity, the RRs did not change much after further adjustment for other adiposity markers, but for hip circumference the association was reversed; given body mass index and waist circumference, the RR for vascular-metabolic mortality for each one SD higher usual hip circumference was 0.80 (0.75–0.86).

Conclusions

In this study of Mexican adults, abdominal adiposity (and in particular the waist–height ratio) was strongly and positively associated with vascular-metabolic mortality. For a given amount of general and abdominal adiposity, however, higher hip circumference was associated with lower vascular-metabolic mortality.

Prerandomization run-in periods in randomized controlled trials of chronic diseases: a methodological study

OBJECTIVE

To systematically review the epidemiology of prerandomized run-in periods in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of chronic diseases.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

Meta-epidemiologic study of all RCTs from the four highest impact medical journals from 2011 to 2016. Eligible trials included parallel RCTs that evaluated pharmacologic therapies in adults with chronic diseases with a minimum follow-up of 24 weeks.

RESULTS

Of 262 eligible manuscripts, 48 (18.3%), representing 42 unique RCTs, included run-in periods. Run-in periods were most common in cardiovascular disease and diabetes trials. Of the 42 RCTs, in 22 patients received the experimental therapy, 15 placebo, 4 both (either sequentially or in combination), and one did not report the run-in period drug. The median run-in period duration was 28 days (Q1: Q3 14: 66 days). Reasons for including a run-in period included ensuring eligibility criteria were met (18, 42.9%), excluding participants with nonadherence (18, 42.9%) and intolerances to therapy (15, 35.7%), and to standardize therapy prior to randomization (8, 19.0%). The median run-in completion rate was 77.4% (Q1: Q3 62.2:87.8%).

CONCLUSIONS

Run-in periods are uncommon in RCTs of chronic drug treatments and when used, their reporting is heterogeneous. Further research to improve the design, use, and reporting of run-in periods is necessary.

Cost-effectiveness of lipid lowering with statins and ezetimibe in chronic kidney disease

Statin-based treatments reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in patients with non-dialysis chronic kidney disease (CKD), but it is unclear which regimen is the most cost-effective. We used the Study of Heart and Renal Protection (SHARP) CKD-CVD policy model to evaluate the effect of statins and ezetimibe on quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and health care costs in the United States (US) and the United Kingdom (UK). Net costs below $100,000/QALY (US) or £20,000/QALY (UK) were considered cost-effective. We investigated statin regimens with or without ezetimibe 10 mg. Treatment effects on cardiovascular risk were estimated per 1-mmol/L reduction in low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol as reported in the Cholesterol Treatment Trialists' Collaboration meta-analysis, and reductions in LDL cholesterol were estimated for each statin/ezetimibe regimen. In the US, atorvastatin 40 mg ($0.103/day as of January 2019) increased life expectancy by 0.23 to 0.31 QALYs in non-dialysis patients with stages 3B to 5 CKD, at a net cost of $20,300 to $78,200/QALY. Adding ezetimibe 10 mg ($0.203/day) increased life expectancy by an additional 0.05 to 0.07 QALYs, at a net cost of $43,600 to $91,500/QALY. The cost-effectiveness findings and policy implications in the UK were similar. In summary, in patients with non-dialysis-dependent CKD, the evidence suggests that statin/ezetimibe combination therapy is a cost-effective treatment to reduce the risk of CVD.

Prognostic utility of estimated albumin excretion rate in chronic kidney disease: results from the Study of Heart and Renal Protection

Background

Estimated albumin excretion rate (eAER) provides a better estimate of 24-h albuminuria than albumin:creatinine ratio (ACR). However, whether eAER is superior to ACR in predicting end-stage renal disease (ESRD), vascular events (VEs) or death is uncertain.

Methods

The prognostic utility of ACR and eAER (estimated from ACR, sex, age and race) to predict mortality, ESRD and VEs was compared using Cox proportional hazards regression among 5552 participants with chronic kidney disease in the Study of Heart and Renal Protection, who were not on dialysis at baseline.

Results

During a median follow-up of 4.8 years, 1959 participants developed ESRD, 1204 had a VE and 1130 died (641 from a non-vascular, 369 from a vascular and 120 from an unknown cause). After adjustment for age, sex and eGFR, both ACR and eAER were strongly and similarly associated with ESRD risk. The average relative risk (RR) per 10-fold higher level was 2.70 (95% confidence interval 2.45-2.98) for ACR and 2.67 (2.43-2.94) for eAER. Neither ACR nor eAER provided any additional prognostic information for ESRD risk over and above the other. For VEs, there were modest positive associations between both ACR and eAER and risk [adjusted RR per 10-fold higher level 1.37 (1.22-1.53) for ACR and 1.36 (1.22-1.52) for eAER]. Again, neither measure added prognostic information over and above the other. Similar results were observed when ACR and eAER were related to vascular mortality [RR per 10-fold higher level: 1.64 (1.33-2.03) and 1.62 (1.32-2.00), respectively] or to non-vascular mortality [1.53 (1.31-1.79) and 1.50 (1.29-1.76), respectively].

Conclusions

In this study, eAER did not improve risk prediction of ESRD, VEs or mortality.

Associations between body mass index and the risk of renal events in patients with type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

We aimed to evaluate the relationship between BMI and the risk of renal disease in patients with type 2 diabetes in the Action in Diabetes and Vascular Disease: PreterAx and DiamicroN Modified-Release Controlled Evaluation (ADVANCE) study.

SUBJECTS/METHODS

Participants were divided into six baseline BMI categories: <18.5 (underweight, n = 58); ≥18.5 to <25 (normal, n = 2894); ≥25 to <30 (overweight, n = 4340); ≥30 to <35 (obesity grade 1, n = 2265); ≥35 to <40 (obesity grade 2, n = 744); and ≥40 kg/m2 (obesity grade 3, n = 294); those underweight were excluded. The composite outcome "major renal event" was defined as development of new macroalbuminuria, doubling of creatinine, end stage renal disease, or renal death. These outcomes and development of new microalbuminuria were considered individually as secondary endpoints.

RESULTS

During 5-years of follow-up, major renal events occurred in 487 (4.6%) patients. The risk increased with higher BMI. Multivariable-adjusted HRs (95% CIs), compared to normal weight, were: 0.91 (0.72-1.15) for overweight; 1.03 (0.77-1.37) for obesity grade 1; 1.42 (0.98-2.07) for grade 2; and 2.16 (1.34-3.48) for grade 3 (p for trend = 0.006). These findings were similar across subgroups by randomised interventions (intensive versus standard glucose control and perindopril-indapamide versus placebo). Every additional unit of BMI over 25 kg/m2 increased the risk of major renal events by 4 (1-6)%. Comparable results were observed with the risk of secondary endpoints.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher BMI is an independent predictor of major renal events in patients with type 2 diabetes. Our findings encourage weight loss to improve nephroprotection in these patients.

Impact of CKD on Household Income

Introduction

The impact of chronic kidney disease (CKD) on income is unclear. We sought to determine whether CKD severity, serious adverse events, and CKD progression affected household income.

Methods

Analyses were undertaken in a prospective cohort of adults with moderate-to-severe CKD in the Study of Heart and Renal Protection (SHARP), with household income information available at baseline screening and study end. Logistic regressions, adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics, smoking, and prior diseases at baseline, estimated associations during the 5-year follow-up, among (i) baseline CKD severity, (ii) incident nonfatal serious adverse events (vascular or cancer), and (iii) CKD treatment modality (predialysis, dialysis, or transplanted) at study end and the outcome “fall into relative poverty.” This was defined as household income <50% of country median income.

Results

A total of 2914 SHARP participants from 14 countries were included in the main analysis. Of these, 933 (32%) were in relative poverty at screening; of the remaining 1981, 436 (22%) fell into relative poverty by study end. Compared with participants with stage 3 CKD at baseline, the odds of falling into poverty were 51% higher for those with stage 4 (odds ratio [OR]: 1.51; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.09–2.10), 66% higher for those with stage 5 (OR: 1.66; 95% CI: 1.11–2.47), and 78% higher for those on dialysis at baseline (OR: 1.78, 95% CI: 1.22–2.60). Participants with kidney transplant at study end had approximately half the risk of those on dialysis or those with CKD stages 3 to 5.

Conclusion

More advanced CKD is associated with increased odds of falling into poverty. Kidney transplantation may have a role in reducing this risk.

A policy model of cardiovascular disease in moderate-to-advanced chronic kidney disease

OBJECTIVE

To present a long-term policy model of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in moderate-to-advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD).

METHODS

A Markov model with transitions between CKD stages (3B, 4, 5, on dialysis, with kidney transplant) and cardiovascular events (major atherosclerotic events, haemorrhagic stroke, vascular death) was developed with individualised CKD and CVD risks estimated using the 5 years' follow-up data of the 9270 patients with moderate-to-severe CKD in the Study of Heart and Renal Protection (SHARP) and multivariate parametric survival analysis. The model was assessed in three further CKD cohorts and compared with currently used risk scores.

RESULTS

Higher age, previous cardiovascular events and advanced CKD were the main contributors to increased individual disease risks. CKD and CVD risks predicted by the state-transition model corresponded well to risks observed in SHARP and external cohorts. The model's predictions of vascular risk and progression to end-stage renal disease were better than, or comparable to, those produced by other risk scores. As an illustration, at age 60-69 years, projected survival for SHARP participants in CKD stage 3B was 13.5 years (10.6 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs)) in men and 14.8 years (10.7 QALYs) in women. Corresponding projections for participants on dialysis were 7.5 (5.6 QALYs) and 7.8 years (5.4 QALYs). A non-fatal major atherosclerotic event reduced life expectancy by about 2 years in stage 3B and by 1 year in dialysis.

CONCLUSIONS

The SHARP CKD-CVD model is a novel resource for evaluating health outcomes and cost-effectiveness of interventions in CKD.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT00125593 and ISRCTN54137607; Post-results.

Design, fabrication, and testing of zone-plate interconnects for a compact optoelectronic integrated neural coprocessor

We have designed, fabricated, and tested a set of scalable compact optical elements for use in the compact optoelectronic integrated neural (COIN) coprocessor. The COIN coprocessor is an implementation of a feed-forward neural network that uses optical interconnects to transmit information from one layer of neurons to the next. Optical interconnection elements based on Fresnel-zone-plate concepts have been fabricated using standard lithographic processes, thereby allowing large arrays to be fabricated with a single exposure. This paper discusses the design trade-offs that must be considered for effective use of such elements in a COIN coprocessor, and the fabrication and testing of a set of such optical interconnection elements. It was found that the behavior of the fabricated zone plates correlated well with the design simulation, and that this type of optical element is indeed suitable for use in the COIN coprocessor.

Association Between Diabetes and Cause-Specific Mortality in Rural and Urban Areas of China

IMPORTANCE

In China, diabetes prevalence has increased substantially in recent decades, but there are no reliable estimates of the excess mortality currently associated with diabetes.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the proportional excess mortality associated with diabetes and estimate the diabetes-related absolute excess mortality in rural and urban areas of China.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A 7-year nationwide prospective study of 512 869 adults aged 30 to 79 years from 10 (5 rural and 5 urban) regions in China, who were recruited between June 2004 and July 2008 and were followed up until January 2014.

EXPOSURES

Diabetes (previously diagnosed or detected by screening) recorded at baseline.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

All-cause and cause-specific mortality, collected through established death registries. Cox regression was used to estimate adjusted mortality rate ratio (RR) comparing individuals with diabetes vs those without diabetes at baseline.

RESULTS

Among the 512 869 participants, the mean (SD) age was 51.5 (10.7) years, 59% (n = 302 618) were women, and 5.9% (n = 30 280) had diabetes (4.1% in rural areas, 8.1% in urban areas, 5.8% of men, 6.1% of women, 3.1% had been previously diagnosed, and 2.8% were detected by screening). During 3.64 million person-years of follow-up, there were 24 909 deaths, including 3384 among individuals with diabetes. Compared with adults without diabetes, individuals with diabetes had a significantly increased risk of all-cause mortality (1373 vs 646 deaths per 100 000; adjusted RR, 2.00 [95% CI, 1.93-2.08]), which was higher in rural areas than in urban areas (rural RR, 2.17 [95% CI, 2.07-2.29]; urban RR, 1.83 [95% CI, 1.73-1.94]). Presence of diabetes was associated with increased mortality from ischemic heart disease (3287 deaths; RR, 2.40 [95% CI, 2.19-2.63]), stroke (4444 deaths; RR, 1.98 [95% CI, 1.81-2.17]), chronic liver disease (481 deaths; RR, 2.32 [95% CI, 1.76-3.06]), infections (425 deaths; RR, 2.29 [95% CI, 1.76-2.99]), and cancer of the liver (1325 deaths; RR, 1.54 [95% CI, 1.28-1.86]), pancreas (357 deaths; RR, 1.84 [95% CI, 1.35-2.51]), female breast (217 deaths; RR, 1.84 [95% CI, 1.24-2.74]), and female reproductive system (210 deaths; RR, 1.81 [95% CI, 1.20-2.74]). For chronic kidney disease (365 deaths), the RR was higher in rural areas (18.69 [95% CI, 14.22-24.57]) than in urban areas (6.83 [95% CI, 4.73-9.88]). Among those with diabetes, 10% of all deaths (16% rural; 4% urban) were due to definite or probable diabetic ketoacidosis or coma (408 deaths).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Among adults in China, diabetes was associated with increased mortality from a range of cardiovascular and noncardiovascular diseases. Although diabetes was more common in urban areas, it was associated with greater excess mortality in rural areas.

Evidence for Reverse Causality in the Association Between Blood Pressure and Cardiovascular Risk in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease

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Among those with moderate-to-advanced chronic kidney disease, the relationship between blood pressure (BP) and cardiovascular disease seems U shaped but is loglinear in apparently healthy adults. The SHARP (Study of Heart and Renal Protection) randomized 9270 patients with chronic kidney disease to ezetimibe/simvastatin versus matching placebo and measured BP at each follow-up visit. Cox regression was used to assess the association between BP and risk of cardiovascular disease among (1) those with a self-reported history of cardiovascular disease and (2) those with no such history and, based on plasma troponin-I concentration, a low probability of subclinical cardiac disease. A total of 8666 participants had a valid baseline BP and troponin-I measurement, and 2188 had at least 1 cardiovascular event during follow-up. After adjustment for relevant confounders, the association between systolic BP and cardiovascular events was U shaped, but among participants without evidence of previous cardiovascular disease, there was a positive loglinear association throughout the range of values studied. Among those with the lowest probability of subclinical cardiac disease, each 10 mm Hg higher systolic BP corresponded to a 27% increased risk of cardiovascular disease (hazard ratio, 1.27; 95% confidence interval, 1.11–1.44). In contrast, the relationship between diastolic BP and cardiovascular risk remained U shaped irrespective of cardiovascular disease history or risk of subclinical disease. In conclusion, the lack of a clear association between systolic BP and cardiovascular risk in this population seems attributable to confounding, suggesting that more intensive systolic BP reduction may be beneficial in such patients.

Diabetes and Cause-Specific Mortality in Mexico City

BACKGROUND

Most large, prospective studies of the effects of diabetes on mortality have focused on high-income countries where patients have access to reasonably good medical care and can receive treatments to establish and maintain good glycemic control. In those countries, diabetes less than doubles the rate of death from any cause. Few large, prospective studies have been conducted in middle-income countries where obesity and diabetes have become common and glycemic control may be poor.

METHODS

From 1998 through 2004, we recruited approximately 50,000 men and 100,000 women 35 years of age or older into a prospective study in Mexico City, Mexico. We recorded the presence or absence of previously diagnosed diabetes, obtained and stored blood samples, and tracked 12-year disease-specific deaths through January 1, 2014. We accepted diabetes as the underlying cause of death only for deaths that were due to acute diabetic crises. We estimated rate ratios for death among participants who had diabetes at recruitment versus those who did not have diabetes at recruitment; data from participants who had chronic diseases other than diabetes were excluded from the main analysis.

RESULTS

At the time of recruitment, obesity was common and the prevalence of diabetes rose steeply with age (3% at 35 to 39 years of age and >20% by 60 years of age). Participants who had diabetes had poor glycemic control (mean [±SD] glycated hemoglobin level, 9.0±2.4%), and the rates of use of other vasoprotective medications were low (e.g., 30% of participants with diabetes were receiving antihypertensive medication at recruitment and 1% were receiving lipid-lowering medication). Previously diagnosed diabetes was associated with rate ratios for death from any cause of 5.4 (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.0 to 6.0) at 35 to 59 years of age, 3.1 (95% CI, 2.9 to 3.3) at 60 to 74 years of age, and 1.9 (95% CI, 1.8 to 2.1) at 75 to 84 years of age. Between 35 and 74 years of age, the excess mortality associated with previously diagnosed diabetes accounted for one third of all deaths; the largest absolute excess risks of death were from renal disease (rate ratio, 20.1; 95% CI, 17.2 to 23.4), cardiac disease (rate ratio, 3.7; 95% CI, 3.2 to 4.2), infection (rate ratio, 4.7; 95% CI, 4.0 to 5.5), acute diabetic crises (8% of all deaths among participants who had previously diagnosed diabetes), and other vascular disease (mainly stroke). Little association was observed between diabetes and mortality from cirrhosis, cancer, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study in Mexico, a middle-income country with high levels of obesity, diabetes was common, glycemic control was poor, and diabetes was associated with a far worse prognosis than that seen in high-income countries; it accounted for at least one third of all deaths between 35 and 74 years of age. (Funded by the Wellcome Trust and others.).

Effect of Processing Delay and Storage Conditions on Urine Albumin-to-Creatinine Ratio

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Because there is substantial biologic intraindividual variation in albumin excretion, randomized trials of albuminuria-reducing therapies may need multiple urine samples to estimate daily urinary albumin excretion. Mailing spot urine samples could offer a convenient and cost-effective method to collect multiple samples, but urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio stability in samples stored at ambient temperatures for several days is unknown.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS

Patients with kidney disease provided fresh urine samples in two tubes (with and without boric acid preservative). Reference aliquots from each participant were analyzed immediately, whereas remaining aliquots were subject to different handling/storage conditions before analysis, including delayed processing for up to 7 days at three different storage temperatures (4°C, 18°C, and 30°C), multiple freeze-thaw cycles, and long-term frozen storage at -80°C, -40°C, and -20°C. We calculated the mean percentage change in urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio for each condition, and we considered samples stable if the 95% confidence interval was within a ±5% threshold.

RESULTS

Ninety-three patients provided samples with detectable albuminuria in the reference aliquot. Median (interquartile range) urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio was 87 (20-499) mg/g. The inclusion of preservative had minimal effect on fresh urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio measurements but reduced the changes in albumin and creatinine in samples subject to processing delay and storage conditions. The urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio was stable for 7 days in samples containing preservative at 4°C and 18°C and 2 days when stored at 30°C. It was also stable in samples with preservative after three freeze-thaw cycles and in frozen storage for 6 months at -80°C or -40°C but not at -20°C.

CONCLUSIONS

Mailed urine samples collected with preservative and received within 7 days if ambient temperature is ≤18°C, or within 2 days if the temperature is higher but does not exceed 30°C, are suitable for the measurement of urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio in randomized trials. Preserved samples frozen to -40°C or -80°C for 6 months before analysis also seem suitable.

Impact of renal function on the effects of LDL cholesterol lowering with statin-based regimens: a meta-analysis of individual participant data from 28 randomised trials

BACKGROUND

Statin therapy is effective for the prevention of coronary heart disease and stroke in patients with mild-to-moderate chronic kidney disease, but its effects in individuals with more advanced disease, particularly those undergoing dialysis, are uncertain.

METHODS

We did a meta-analysis of individual participant data from 28 trials (n=183 419), examining effects of statin-based therapy on major vascular events (major coronary event [non-fatal myocardial infarction or coronary death], stroke, or coronary revascularisation) and cause-specific mortality. Participants were subdivided into categories of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) at baseline. Treatment effects were estimated with rate ratio (RR) per mmol/L reduction in LDL cholesterol.

FINDINGS

Overall, statin-based therapy reduced the risk of a first major vascular event by 21% (RR 0·79, 95% CI 0·77-0·81; p<0·0001) per mmol/L reduction in LDL cholesterol. Smaller relative effects on major vascular events were observed as eGFR declined (p=0·008 for trend; RR 0·78, 99% CI 0·75-0·82 for eGFR ≥60 mL/min per 1·73 m(2); 0·76, 0·70-0·81 for eGFR 45 to <60 mL/min per 1·73 m(2); 0·85, 0·75-0·96 for eGFR 30 to <45 mL/min per 1·73 m(2); 0·85, 0·71-1·02 for eGFR <30 mL/min per 1·73 m(2) and not on dialysis; and 0·94, 0·79-1·11 for patients on dialysis). Analogous trends by baseline renal function were seen for major coronary events (p=0·01 for trend) and vascular mortality (p=0·03 for trend), but there was no significant trend for coronary revascularisation (p=0·90). Reducing LDL cholesterol with statin-based therapy had no effect on non-vascular mortality, irrespective of eGFR.

INTERPRETATION

Even after allowing for the smaller reductions in LDL cholesterol achieved by patients with more advanced chronic kidney disease, and for differences in outcome definitions between dialysis trials, the relative reductions in major vascular events observed with statin-based treatment became smaller as eGFR declined, with little evidence of benefit in patients on dialysis. In patients with chronic kidney disease, statin-based regimens should be chosen to maximise the absolute reduction in LDL cholesterol to achieve the largest treatment benefits.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, European Community Biomed Programme, Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, Australian National Heart Foundation.

Epidemiology of Atherosclerosis and the Potential to Reduce the Global Burden of Atherothrombotic Disease

Atherosclerosis is a leading cause of vascular disease worldwide. Its major clinical manifestations include ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke, and peripheral arterial disease. In high-income countries, there have been dramatic declines in the incidence and mortality from ischemic heart disease and ischemic stroke since the middle of the 20th century. For example, in the United Kingdom, the probability of death from vascular disease in middle-aged men (35-69 years) has decreased from 22% in 1950 to 6% in 2010. Most low- and middle-income countries have also reported declines in mortality from stroke over the last few decades, but mortality trends from ischemic heart disease have been more varied, with some countries reporting declines and others reporting increases (particularly those in Eastern Europe and Asia). Many major modifiable risk factors for atherosclerosis have been identified, and the causal relevance of several risk factors is now well established (including, but not limited to, smoking, adiposity, blood pressure, blood cholesterol, and diabetes mellitus). Widespread changes in health behaviors and use of treatments for these risk factors are responsible for some of the dramatic declines in vascular mortality in high-income countries. In order that these declines continue and are mirrored in less wealthy nations, increased efforts are needed to tackle these major risk factors, particularly smoking and the emerging obesity epidemic.

Cost-effectiveness of Simvastatin plus Ezetimibe for Cardiovascular Prevention in CKD: Results of the Study of Heart and Renal Protection (SHARP)

Background

Simvastatin, 20 mg, plus ezetimibe, 10 mg, daily (simvastatin plus ezetimibe) reduced major atherosclerotic events in patients with moderate to severe chronic kidney disease (CKD) in the Study of Heart and Renal Protection (SHARP), but its cost-effectiveness is unknown.

Study Design

Cost-effectiveness of simvastatin plus ezetimibe in SHARP, a randomized controlled trial.

Setting & Population

9,270 patients with CKD randomly assigned to simvastatin plus ezetimibe versus placebo; participants in categories by 5-year cardiovascular risk (low, <10%; medium, 10%-<20%; or high, ≥20%) and CKD stage (3, 4, 5 not on dialysis, or on dialysis therapy).

Model, Perspective, & Timeline

Assessment during SHARP follow-up from the UK perspective; long-term projections.

Intervention

Simvastatin plus ezetimibe (2015 UK £1.19 per day) during 4.9 years’ median follow-up in SHARP; scenario analyses with high-intensity statin regimens (2015 UK £0.05-£1.06 per day).

Outcomes

Additional health care costs per major atherosclerotic event avoided and per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained.

Results

In SHARP, the proportional reductions per 1 mmol/L of low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol reduction with simvastatin plus ezetimibe in all major atherosclerotic events of 20% (95% CI, 6%-32%) and in the costs of vascular hospital episodes of 17% (95% CI, 4%-28%) were similar across participant categories by cardiovascular risk and CKD stage. The 5-year reduction in major atherosclerotic events per 1,000 participants ranged from 10 in low-risk to 58 in high-risk patients and from 28 in CKD stage 3 to 36 in patients on dialysis therapy. The net cost per major atherosclerotic event avoided with simvastatin plus ezetimibe compared to no LDL-lowering regimen ranged from £157,060 in patients at low risk to £15,230 in those at high risk (£30,500-£39,600 per QALY); and from £47,280 in CKD stage 3 to £28,180 in patients on dialysis therapy (£13,000-£43,300 per QALY). In scenario analyses, generic high-intensity statin regimens were estimated to yield similar benefits at substantially lower cost.

Limitations

High-intensity statin-alone regimens were not studied in SHARP.

Conclusions

Simvastatin plus ezetimibe prevented atherosclerotic events in SHARP, but other less costly statin regimens are likely to be more cost-effective for reducing cardiovascular risk in CKD.

Impact of Educational Attainment on Health Outcomes in Moderate to Severe CKD

Background

The inverse association between educational attainment and mortality is well established, but its relevance to vascular events and renal progression in a population with chronic kidney disease (CKD) is less clear. This study aims to determine the association between highest educational attainment and risk of vascular events, cause-specific mortality, and CKD progression.

Study Design

Prospective epidemiologic analysis among participants in the Study of Heart and Renal Protection (SHARP), a randomized controlled trial.

Setting & Participants

9,270 adults with moderate to severe CKD (6,245 not receiving dialysis at baseline) and no history of myocardial infarction or coronary revascularization recruited in Europe, North America, Asia, Australia, and New Zealand.

Predictor

Highest educational attainment measured at study entry using 6 levels that ranged from “no formal education” to “tertiary education.”

Outcomes

Any vascular event (any fatal or nonfatal cardiac, cerebrovascular, or peripheral vascular event), cause-specific mortality, and CKD progression during 4.9 years’ median follow-up.

Results

There was a significant trend (P < 0.001) toward increased vascular risk with decreasing levels of education. Participants with no formal education were at a 46% higher risk of vascular events (relative risk [RR], 1.46; 95% CI, 1.14-1.86) compared with participants with tertiary education. The trend for mortality across education levels was also significant (P < 0.001): all-cause mortality was twice as high among those with no formal education compared with tertiary-educated individuals (RR, 2.05; 95% CI, 1.62-2.58), and significant increases were seen for both vascular (RR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.21-2.81) and nonvascular (RR, 2.15; 95% CI, 1.60-2.89) deaths. Lifestyle factors and prior disease explain most of the excess mortality risk. Among 6,245 participants not receiving dialysis at baseline, education level was not significantly associated with progression to end-stage renal disease or doubling of creatinine level (P for trend = 0.4).

Limitations

No data for employment or health insurance coverage.

Conclusions

Lower educational attainment is associated with increased risk of adverse health outcomes in individuals with CKD.

Neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin in kidney transplantation: A review

Neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) is a protein expressed by kidney tubular cells in response to ischemia, but may also be an early indicator of immunological rejection, calcineurin inhibitor toxicity, obstructive nephropathy, subclinical tubulitis or infection. Although there is currently no evidence to support the routine serial measurement of blood or urinary NGAL to detect subclinical acute tubular injury, NGAL has the potential to provide useful information to those that care for kidney transplant recipients (KTRs). First, high urinary or serum NGAL concentrations shortly after transplantation are a predictor of delayed graft function and are associated with reduced graft function at one year. Secondly, among KTRs with previously stable graft function who then suffer acute graft dysfunction, a high urinary NGAL predicts graft loss at one year. If further refined, diagnostic tests based on NGAL levels may provide future useful clinical tools.

What is the impact of chronic kidney disease stage and cardiovascular disease on the annual cost of hospital care in moderate-to-severe kidney disease?

Background

Reliable estimates of the impacts of chronic kidney disease (CKD) stage, with and without cardiovascular disease, on hospital costs are needed to inform health policy.

Methods

The Study of Heart and Renal Protection (SHARP) randomized trial prospectively collected information on kidney disease progression, serious adverse events and hospital care use in a cohort of patients with moderate-to-severe CKD. In a secondary analysis of SHARP data, the impact of participants’ CKD stage, non-fatal cardiovascular events and deaths on annual hospital costs (i.e. all hospital admissions, routine dialysis treatments and recorded outpatient/day-case attendances in United Kingdom 2011 prices) were estimated using linear regression.

Results

7,246 SHARP patients (2,498 on dialysis at baseline) from Europe, North America, and Australasia contributed 28,261 years of data. CKD patients without diabetes or vascular disease incurred annual hospital care costs ranging from £403 (95% confidence interval: 345-462) in CKD stages 1-3B to £525 (449-602) in CKD stage 5 (not on dialysis). Patients in receipt of maintenance dialysis incurred annual hospital costs of £18,986 (18,620-19,352) in the year of initiation and £23,326 (23,231-23,421) annually thereafter. Patients with a functioning kidney transplant incurred £24,602 (24,027-25,178) in hospital care costs in the year of transplantation and £1,148 (978-1,318) annually thereafter. Non-fatal major vascular events increased annual costs in the year of the event by £6,133 (5,608-6,658) for patients on dialysis and by £4,350 (3,819-4,880) for patients not on dialysis, and were associated with increased costs, though to a lesser extent, in subsequent years.

Conclusions

Renal replacement therapy and major vascular events are the main contributors to the high hospital care costs in moderate-to-severe CKD. These estimates of hospital costs can be used to inform health policy in moderate-to-severe CKD.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12882-015-0054-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Adapting to the new radiology landscape: challenges and solutions discussed at the 2014 AMCLC open-microphone sessions

Every year, multiple open-microphone sessions are hosted at the ACR AMCLC. These sessions allow members of the College to offer opinions, experiences, and questions regarding challenges facing radiologists and the future of the profession. At the 2014 AMCLC, 3 such sessions focused, respectively, on radiology's workforce, the obstacles slowing the shift from volume to value, and alternative reimbursement models and the shifting physician employment landscape. These open-microphone sessions framed contemporary obstacles and emerging challenges that professional radiology societies, such as the ACR, should target with new initiatives and use of resources; in addition, the sessions revealed opportunities for members, councilors, and state chapters to respond with meaningful resolutions and policy proposals.

Evidence for the prevention and treatment of stroke in dialysis patients

The risks of both ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke are particularly high in dialysis patients of any age and outcomes are poor. It is therefore important to identify strategies that safely minimize stroke risk in this population. Observational studies have been unable to clarify the relative importance of traditional stroke risk factors such as blood pressure and cholesterol in those on dialysis, and are affected by biases that usually make them an inappropriate source of data on which to base therapeutic decisions. Well-conducted randomized trials are not susceptible to such biases and can reliably investigate the causal nature of the association between a potential risk factor and the outcome of interest. However, dialysis patients have been under-represented in the cardiovascular trials which have proven net benefit of commonly used preventative treatments (e.g., antihypertensive treatments, low-dose aspirin, carotid revascularization, and thromboprophylaxis for atrial fibrillation), and there remains uncertainty about safety and efficacy of many of these treatments in this high-risk population. Moreover, the efficacy of renal-specific therapies that might reduce cardiovascular risk, such as modulators of mineral and bone disorder, online hemodiafiltration, and daily (nocturnal) hemodialysis, have not been tested in adequately powered trials. Recent trials have also demonstrated how widespread current practices could be causing stroke. Therefore, it is important that reliable information on the prevention and treatment of stroke (and other cardiovascular disease) in dialysis patients is generated by performing large-scale randomized trials of many current and future treatments.

The effect of lowering LDL cholesterol on vascular access patency: post hoc analysis of the Study of Heart and Renal Protection

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Reducing LDL cholesterol (LDL-C) with statin-based therapy reduces the risk of major atherosclerotic events among patients with CKD, including dialysis patients, but the effect of lowering LDL-C on vascular access patency is unclear.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS

The Study of Heart and Renal Protection (SHARP) randomized patients with CKD to 20 mg simvastatin plus 10 mg ezetimibe daily versus matching placebo. This study aimed to explore the effects of treatment on vascular access occlusive events, defined as any access revision procedure, access thrombosis, removal of an old dialysis access, or formation of new permanent dialysis access.

RESULTS

Among 2353 SHARP participants who had functioning vascular access at randomization, allocation to simvastatin plus ezetimibe resulted in a 13% proportional reduction in vascular access occlusive events (355 [29.7%] for simvastatin/ezetimibe versus 388 [33.5%] for placebo; risk ratio [RR], 0.87; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.75 to 1.00; P=0.05). There was no evidence that the effects of treatment differed for any of the separate components of this outcome. To test the hypothesis raised by SHARP, comparable analyses were performed using the AURORA (A Study to Evaluate the Use of Rosuvastatin in Subjects on Regular Hemodialysis: An Assessment of Survival and Cardiovascular Events) trial cohort. AURORA did not provide independent confirmation (vascular access occlusive events: 352 [28.9%] for rosuvastatin versus 337 [27.6%] for placebo; RR, 1.06, 95% CI, 0.91 to 1.23; P=0.44). After combining the two trials, the overall effect of reducing LDL-C with a statin-based regimen on vascular access occlusive events was not statistically significant (707 [29.3%] with any LDL-C-lowering therapy versus 725 [30.5%] with placebo; RR, 0.95, 95% CI, 0.85 to 1.05; P=0.29).

CONCLUSIONS

Exploratory analyses from SHARP suggest that lowering LDL-C with statin-based therapy may improve vascular access patency, but there was no evidence of benefit in AURORA. Taken together, the available evidence suggests that any benefits of lowering LDL-C on vascular access patency are likely to be modest.

The effects of lowering LDL cholesterol with simvastatin plus ezetimibe in patients with chronic kidney disease (Study of Heart and Renal Protection): a randomised placebo-controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Lowering LDL cholesterol with statin regimens reduces the risk of myocardial infarction, ischaemic stroke, and the need for coronary revascularisation in people without kidney disease, but its effects in people with moderate-to-severe kidney disease are uncertain. The SHARP trial aimed to assess the efficacy and safety of the combination of simvastatin plus ezetimibe in such patients.

METHODS

This randomised double-blind trial included 9270 patients with chronic kidney disease (3023 on dialysis and 6247 not) with no known history of myocardial infarction or coronary revascularisation. Patients were randomly assigned to simvastatin 20 mg plus ezetimibe 10 mg daily versus matching placebo. The key prespecified outcome was first major atherosclerotic event (non-fatal myocardial infarction or coronary death, non-haemorrhagic stroke, or any arterial revascularisation procedure). All analyses were by intention to treat. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00125593, and ISRCTN54137607.

FINDINGS

4650 patients were assigned to receive simvastatin plus ezetimibe and 4620 to placebo. Allocation to simvastatin plus ezetimibe yielded an average LDL cholesterol difference of 0·85 mmol/L (SE 0·02; with about two-thirds compliance) during a median follow-up of 4·9 years and produced a 17% proportional reduction in major atherosclerotic events (526 [11·3%] simvastatin plus ezetimibe vs 619 [13·4%] placebo; rate ratio [RR] 0·83, 95% CI 0·74-0·94; log-rank p=0·0021). Non-significantly fewer patients allocated to simvastatin plus ezetimibe had a non-fatal myocardial infarction or died from coronary heart disease (213 [4·6%] vs 230 [5·0%]; RR 0·92, 95% CI 0·76-1·11; p=0·37) and there were significant reductions in non-haemorrhagic stroke (131 [2·8%] vs 174 [3·8%]; RR 0·75, 95% CI 0·60-0·94; p=0·01) and arterial revascularisation procedures (284 [6·1%] vs 352 [7·6%]; RR 0·79, 95% CI 0·68-0·93; p=0·0036). After weighting for subgroup-specific reductions in LDL cholesterol, there was no good evidence that the proportional effects on major atherosclerotic events differed from the summary rate ratio in any subgroup examined, and, in particular, they were similar in patients on dialysis and those who were not. The excess risk of myopathy was only two per 10,000 patients per year of treatment with this combination (9 [0·2%] vs 5 [0·1%]). There was no evidence of excess risks of hepatitis (21 [0·5%] vs 18 [0·4%]), gallstones (106 [2·3%] vs 106 [2·3%]), or cancer (438 [9·4%] vs 439 [9·5%], p=0·89) and there was no significant excess of death from any non-vascular cause (668 [14·4%] vs 612 [13·2%], p=0·13).

INTERPRETATION

Reduction of LDL cholesterol with simvastatin 20 mg plus ezetimibe 10 mg daily safely reduced the incidence of major atherosclerotic events in a wide range of patients with advanced chronic kidney disease.

FUNDING

Merck/Schering-Plough Pharmaceuticals; Australian National Health and Medical Research Council; British Heart Foundation; UK Medical Research Council.