Thinking flexibly about who digital mental health interventions are for and how they should be evaluated and used: Commentary on McClure et al. (2023)

Less than 20% of individuals with eating disorders (EDs) ever receive treatment. Digital interventions offer one solution to this problem and have demonstrated promise, but there is a need to understand predictors, moderators, and mediators of response, which McClure and colleagues aimed to do in their systematic review. Yet their review also raised key definitional and measurement issues pertinent to conducting research on digital interventions for EDs and other mental health problems, which may have impacted the conclusions drawn and which may stem from applying what has "always been done" in research on more traditional psychological interventions to research on digital interventions. This commentary suggests that digital interventions for EDs and other mental health problems should not be conceived as a 1:1 replacement for individual psychotherapy, and rather, these interventions should be viewed as one option in a wide-ranging menu of services that should be available, as the reality is that not all individuals want or can access the same type of care. If we accept that digital interventions need not be viewed as a 1:1 replacement for psychotherapy, then it logically follows that we should not evaluate or use these two approaches in the exact same manner.

Impact of HPV Vaccination on the Incidence of High-Grade Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia (CIN2+) in Women Aged 20-25 in the Northern Part of Norway: A 15-Year Study

BACKGROUND

Human papillomavirus (HPV), the most prevalent sexually transmitted infection globally, is a key risk factor for high-grade cervical lesions and cervical cancer. Since 2009, HPV vaccination has been part of the national immunization program for girls in 7th grade in Norway (women born 1997 and later). This study aimed to assess the impact of HPV vaccination on the incidence of high-grade cervical precursors (CIN2+) among women aged 20-25 in Troms and Finnmark over a 15-year period.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In this time series study, we analyzed cervical screening data from 15,328 women aged 20-25 in Troms and Finnmark, collected between 2008 and 2022. Statistical methods, including linear and logistic regression, were employed to evaluate changes in cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 and worse (CIN2+) incidence and compare risks between vaccine-offered cohorts and pre-vaccine cohorts.

RESULTS

The incidence of CIN2+ initially increased from 31 cases per year in 2008 to 110 cases in 2018, then significantly decreased to 44 cases per year by 2022 (p < 0.01). Women in pre-vaccine cohorts had a substantially higher risk of CIN2+ (OR 9.02, 95% CI 5.9-13.8) and CIN3+ (OR 19.6, 95% CI 7.3-52.6). Notably, no vaccinated women with CIN2+ tested positive for HPV types 16 or 18. Furthermore, none of the 13 cervical cancer cases recorded during the study were from the vaccinated cohorts.

INTERPRETATION

The findings suggest a significant reduction in the incidence of high-grade cervical precursors following the introduction of the HPV vaccine in Norway's national immunization program, highlighting its effectiveness in cervical cancer prevention among young women in Northern Norway.

Nurturing innovation, catalyzing change: Honoring the legacy of Dr. C. Barr Taylor in the eating disorders field

This Virtual Issue of the International Journal of Eating Disorders honors the legacy of the late Dr. C. Barr Taylor in the eating disorders (EDs) field. For decades, Dr. Taylor led the way in not only conducting the research needed to achieve the ultimate goal of making affordable, accessible, and evidence-based care for EDs available to all, but also nurturing the next generation of scientific leaders and innovators. Articles included in this Virtual Issue are a selection of Dr. Taylor's published works in the Journal in the past decade, spanning original research, ideas worth researching, commentaries, and a systematic review. We hope this Virtual Issue will inspire the next generation of research in EDs, and equally, if not more importantly, the next generation of young investigators in the field. We urge the field to continue and build upon Dr. Taylor's vision-to increase access to targeted prevention and intervention for EDs in innovative and forward-thinking ways-while embracing his unique and powerful mentorship style to lift up early career investigators and create a community of leaders to address and solve our field's biggest challenges.

Public Health Impact of Paxlovid as Treatment for COVID-19, United States

We evaluated the population-level benefits of expanding treatment with the antiviral drug Paxlovid (nirmatrelvir/ritonavir) in the United States for SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant infections. Using a multiscale mathematical model, we found that treating 20% of symptomatic case-patients with Paxlovid over a period of 300 days beginning in January 2022 resulted in life and cost savings. In a low-transmission scenario (effective reproduction number of 1.2), this approach could avert 0.28 million (95% CI 0.03-0.59 million) hospitalizations and save US $56.95 billion (95% CI US $2.62-$122.63 billion). In a higher transmission scenario (effective reproduction number of 3), the benefits increase, potentially preventing 0.85 million (95% CI 0.36-1.38 million) hospitalizations and saving US $170.17 billion (95% CI US $60.49-$286.14 billion). Our findings suggest that timely and widespread use of Paxlovid could be an effective and economical approach to mitigate the effects of COVID-19.

The potential public health impact of the respiratory syncytial virus prefusion F protein vaccine in people aged ≥60 years in Japan: results of a Markov model analysis

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), a common respiratory pathogen, can lead to severe symptoms, especially in older adults (OA). A recently developed RSV prefusion F protein (RSVPreF3 OA) vaccine confers high protection against RSV lower respiratory tract disease (LRTD) over two full RSV seasons. The aim of this study was to assess the potential public health impact of RSVPreF3 OA vaccination in the Japanese OA population.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A static Markov model was used to estimate the number of symptomatic RSV cases, hospitalizations and deaths in the Japanese population aged ≥ 60 years over a 3-year time horizon. Japan-specific RSV epidemiology and healthcare resource use parameters were used; vaccine efficacy was derived from a phase 3 randomized study (AReSVi-006, NCT04886596). Vaccination coverage was set to 50%.

RESULTS

Without vaccination, >5 million RSV acute respiratory illness (ARI) would occur (2.5 million LRTD and 2.8 million upper respiratory tract infections) leading to ~ 3.5 million outpatient visits, >534,000 hospitalizations and ~ 25,500 RSV-related deaths over 3 years. Vaccination could prevent > 1 million RSV-ARI cases, 728,000 outpatient visits, 143,000 hospitalizations and 6,840 RSV-related deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

RSVPreF3 OA vaccination is projected to have a substantial public health impact by reducing RSV-related morbidity and mortality in the OA population.

How large could the public health impact of introducing recombinant zoster vaccination for people aged ≥50 years in five Latin American countries be?

This study aimed to: (1) estimate the disease burden of herpes zoster (HZ) and (2) assess the potential public health impact of introducing adjuvanted recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) compared with no vaccination in adults aged ≥50 years in Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, and Colombia using the ZOster ecoNomic Analysis (ZONA) static multicohort Markov model. The model followed individuals aged ≥50 years from administration of RZV over their remaining lifetime. Inputs were based, most often, on local data. First dose coverage was assumed to be 35%, with 75% second dose compliance. It was predicted that without RZV, there would be 23,558,675 HZ cases, 6,115,981 post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN) cases, and 7,058,779 non-PHN complications in the five countries, but introducing RZV under assumed coverage could avoid 4,583,787 (19%) HZ cases, 1,130,751 (18%) PHN cases, and 1,373,419 (19%) non-PHN complications. Also, 10427,504 (20%) doctor's office visits and 1,630,201 (19%) days of hospitalization could be averted in the three countries (Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico) with available input data. The numbers needed to be vaccinated to avoid one case of HZ were 9-10 across countries, and to avoid one case of PHN, 35-40. One-way sensitivity analyses showed that the input parameters with the largest impact on the estimated number of HZ cases avoided were first dose coverage, initial HZ incidence, and vaccine efficacy waning. In conclusion, the introduction of RZV for older adults in Latin America could greatly reduce the public health burden of HZ and reduce the related doctor visits and hospitalization days.

Public health impact of herpes zoster vaccination on older adults in Hong Kong

The growing burden of herpes zoster (HZ) in Hong Kong, due to an aging population with increasing life expectancy, may be reduced by vaccination. This study aimed to estimate public health impact of HZ vaccination in Hong Kong. The ZOster ecoNomic Analysis (ZONA) model was adapted with Hong Kong-specific key model inputs/assumptions, where available. Base case analysis involved adults ≥50 years of age (YOA), exploring three vaccination strategies (no vaccination/recombinant zoster vaccine [RZV]/zoster vaccine live [ZVL]) under private market (5% coverage) and mass vaccination (40% coverage) settings. Scenario and sensitivity analyses were performed. In the base case population (3.13 million), without vaccination, 891,024 HZ (28.4%), 156,097 post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN) (5.0%), and 38,755 (1.2%) HZ ophthalmicus (HZO) were projected over their remaining lifetime. Mass RZV vaccination reduced HZ, PHN, and HZO cases by 204,875 (-23.0%), 31,949 (-20.5%), and 8,471 (-21.9%), respectively, which was 4-5 times that reduced with ZVL. RZV was more efficient than ZVL, with lower number needed to vaccinate to prevent one HZ/PHN/HZO case (RZV: 7/40/148; ZVL: 27/163/709). Among all age cohorts, the greatest reduction in cases was projected for RZV (versus no vaccination/ZVL) in the youngest cohort, 50-59 YOA. Results were robust under scenario and sensitivity analyses. HZ burden in Hong Kong is substantial. Mass RZV vaccination is expected to considerably reduce public health burden of HZ among individuals ≥50 YOA, compared with no vaccination/ZVL. Results may support value assessment and decision-making regarding vaccination strategies for HZ prevention in Hong Kong.

The public health impact of Paxlovid COVID-19 treatment in the United States

The antiviral drug Paxlovid has been shown to rapidly reduce viral load. Coupled with vaccination, timely administration of safe and effective antivirals could provide a path towards managing COVID-19 without restrictive non-pharmaceutical measures. Here, we estimate the population-level impacts of expanding treatment with Paxlovid in the US using a multi-scale mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission that incorporates the within-host viral load dynamics of the Omicron variant. We find that, under a low transmission scenario R e ∼ 1.2 treating 20% of symptomatic cases would be life and cost saving, leading to an estimated 0.26 (95% CrI: 0.03, 0.59) million hospitalizations averted, 30.61 (95% CrI: 1.69, 71.15) thousand deaths averted, and US$52.16 (95% CrI: 2.62, 122.63) billion reduction in health- and treatment-related costs. Rapid and broad use of the antiviral Paxlovid could substantially reduce COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, while averting socioeconomic hardship.

Decreasing the public health burden of eating disorders: Commentary Schleider et al. (2023)

Eating disorders (EDs) are common, disabling, and costly; yet, less than 20% of those with EDs receive treatment. EDs have also skyrocketed in the COVID-19 pandemic, with access to care worse than ever, further solidifying the need to not only make EDs a priority but also embrace new approaches to address this major public health problem. Schleider et al. argue for the single-session intervention (SSI) as one such option and outline an agenda that would aid in building the evidence base and realizing the promise of SSIs for EDs. This commentary details three additional key issues that need to be addressed in order to realize the full potential of SSIs and related approaches and ultimately decrease the public health burden of EDs. These include conducting work to optimize interventions for greatest effectiveness, recognizing the value and working to massively increase reach of interventions like SSIs that can scale and meet diverse needs, and engaging in the work needed to address structural barriers to widespread dissemination of these approaches. Through this agenda, we will do more than embrace a single-session "mindset" and will catalyze the work needed to disseminate SSIs and related approaches at massive scale and maximize their impact.

Public health impact and economic value of booster vaccination with Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine, bivalent (original and omicron BA.4/BA.5) in the United States

OBJECTIVE

To assess the public health impact and economic value of booster vaccination with the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine, Bivalent in the United States.

METHODS

A combined cohort Markov decision tree model estimated the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of booster vaccination compared to no booster vaccination in individuals aged ≥5 years. Analyses prospectively assessed three scenarios (base case, low, high) defined based upon the emergence (or not) of subvariants, using list prices. Age-stratified parameters were informed by literature. The cost-effectiveness analysis estimated cases, hospitalizations and deaths averted, Life Years (LYs) and Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) gained, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), the net monetary benefit (NMB), and the Return on Investment (ROI). The budget impact analyses used the perspective of a hypothetical 1-million-member plan. Sensitivity analyses explored parameter uncertainty. Conservatively, indirect effects and broad societal benefits were not considered.

RESULTS

The base case predicted that, compared to no booster vaccination, the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine, Bivalent could result in ∼3.7 million fewer symptomatic cases, 162 thousand fewer hospitalizations, 45 thousand fewer deaths, 373 thousand fewer discounted QALYs lost, and was cost-saving. Using a conservative value of $50,000 for 1 LY, every $1 invested yielded estimated $4.67 benefits. Unit costs, health outcomes and effectiveness had the greatest impact on results. At $50,000 per QALY gained, the booster generated a 34.2 billion NMB and probabilistic sensitivity analyses indicated a 92% chance of being cost-saving and 98% of being cost-effective. The bivalent was cost-saving or highly cost-effective in high and low scenarios. In a hypothetical 1-million-member health plan population, the vaccine was predicted to be a budget-efficient solution for payers.

CONCLUSIONS

Booster vaccination with the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine, Bivalent for the US population aged ≥5 years could generate notable public health impact and be cost-saving based on the findings of our base case analyses.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Routine Use of 15-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine in the US Pediatric Population

This study evaluated the clinical and economic impact of routine pediatric vaccination with the 15-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV15, V114) compared with the 13-valent PCV (PCV13) from a societal perspective in the United States (US). A Markov decision-analytic model was constructed to estimate the outcomes for the entire US population over a 100-year time horizon. The model estimated the impact of V114 versus PCV13 on pneumococcal disease (PD) incidence, post meningitis sequalae, and deaths, taking herd immunity effects into account. V114 effectiveness was extrapolated from the observed PCV13 data and PCV7 clinical trials. Costs (2021$) included vaccine acquisition and administration costs, direct medical costs for PD treatment, direct non-medical costs, and indirect costs, and were discounted at 3% per year. In the base case, V114 prevented 185,711 additional invasive pneumococcal disease, 987,727 all-cause pneumonia, and 11.2 million pneumococcal acute otitis media cases, compared with PCV13. This led to expected gains of 90,026 life years and 96,056 quality-adjusted life years with a total saving of $10.8 billion. Sensitivity analysis showed consistent results over plausible values of key model inputs and assumptions. The findings suggest that V114 is a cost-saving option compared to PCV13 in the routine pediatric vaccination program.

Public health impact of UK COVID-19 booster vaccination programs during Omicron predominance

BACKGROUND

We aimed to estimate the public health impact of booster vaccination against COVID-19 in the UK during an Omicron-predominant period.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A dynamic transmission model was developed to compare public health outcomes for actual and alternative UK booster vaccination programs. Input sources were publicly available data and targeted literature reviews. Base case analyses estimated outcomes from the UK's Autumn-Winter 2021-2022 booster program during January-March 2022, an Omicron-predominant period. Scenario analyses projected outcomes from Spring and in Autumn 2022 booster programs over an extended time horizon from April 2022-April 2023, assuming continued Omicron predominance, and explored hypothetical program alternatives with modified eligibility criteria and/or increased uptake.

RESULTS

Estimates predicted that the Autumn-Winter 2021-2022 booster program averted approximately 12.8 million cases, 1.1 million hospitalizations, and 290,000 deaths. Scenario analyses suggested that Spring and Autumn 2022 programs would avert approximately 6.2 million cases, 716,000 hospitalizations, and 125,000 deaths; alternatives extending eligibility or targeting risk groups would improve these benefits, and increasing uptake would further strengthen impact.

CONCLUSIONS

Boosters were estimated to provide substantial benefit to UK public health during Omicron predominance. Benefits of booster vaccination could be maximized by extending eligibility and increasing uptake.

Switching from trivalent to quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccines in Uruguay: a cost-effectiveness analysis

We evaluated the cost-utility of replacing trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) with quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV) in the current target populations in Uruguay. An existing decision-analytic static cost-effectiveness model was adapted for Uruguay. The population was stratified into age groups. Costs and outcomes were estimated for an average influenza season, based on observed rates from 2013 to 2019 inclusive. Introducing QIV instead of TIV in Uruguay would avoid around 740 additional influenza cases, 500 GP consultations, 15 hospitalizations, and three deaths, and save around 300 workdays, for the same vaccination coverage during an average influenza season. Most of the influenza-related consultations and hospitalizations would be avoided among children ≤4 and adults ≥65 years of age. Using QIV rather than TIV would cost an additional ~US$729,000, but this would be partially offset by savings in consultations and hospitalization costs. The incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained with QIV would be in the order of US$18,000 for both the payor and societal perspectives, for all age groups, and around US$12,000 for adults ≥65 years of age. The main drivers influencing the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio were the vaccine efficacy against the B strains and the percentage of match each season with the B strain included in TIV. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that switching to QIV would provide a favorable cost-utility ratio for 50% of simulations at a willingness-to-pay per QALY of US$20,000. A switch to QIV is expected to be cost-effective for the current target populations in Uruguay, particularly for older adults.

Public health impact of COVID-19 in French ambulatory patients with at least one risk factor for severe disease

BACKGROUND

Quantification of COVID-19 burden may be useful to support the future allocation of resources.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the public health impact of COVID-19 in French ambulatory patients with at least one risk factor for severe disease.

STUDY DESIGN

A Markov model was used to estimate life years, costs, number of hospitalisations, number of deaths and long/prolonged COVID forms over a time horizon of 2 years. The hospitalisation probabilities were derived from an early access cohort, and the hospitalisation stay characteristics were derived from the French national hospital discharge database. Several scenario analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

The number of hospitalisations reached 256 per 1,000 patients over the acute phase (first month of simulation), and 382 per 1,000 patients over 2 years. The number of deaths was 37 per 1,000 patients, and the number of long/prolonged COVID forms reached 407 per 1,000 patients. These translated into a reduction of 0.7 days of life per patient in the first month, with an associated cost of €1,578, and a reduction of 27 days of life over the time horizon, with an associated cost of €4,280. The highest burden was observed for patients over 80 years old, and those not vaccinated. The scenarios with a less severe situation or new treatments available showed a non-negligible burden reduction.

CONCLUSION

This study allowed us to quantify the considerable burden related to COVID-19 in infected patients, with at least one risk factor for severe form. Strategies with the ability to substantially reduce this burden in France are urgently required.

Public health and budget impacts of switching from a trivalent to a quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccine in Paraguay

This study aimed to investigate the public health and economic benefit of using a quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV) instead of a trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) in past seasons in Paraguay. The budget impact of switching from TIV to QIV in the Immunization Program was also evaluated. The adapted model includes two modules. The first compared retrospectively Health and Economic outcomes resulting from the use of QIV instead of TIV. The second forecast the spending and savings that would be associated with the switch from TIV to QIV. Our findings estimate that the switch from TIV to QIV during the seasons 2012 to 2017 could have prevented around 2,600 influenza cases, 67 hospitalizations and 10 deaths. An alternative scenario using standardized estimates of the burden of influenza showed that 234 influenza-related hospitalizations and 29 deaths could have been prevented. The estimated annual budget impact of a full switch from TIV to QIV was around USD1,6 million both from the payer and societal perspectives. Those results are mainly driven by vaccine prices and coverage rate. In sum, this manuscript describes how the use of QIV instead of TIV could have prevented influenza cases and subsequent complications that led to hospitalizations and deaths. This could have generated savings for the health system and society, offsetting part of the additional investment needed to switch from TIV to QIV.

Public health impact of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine (BNT162b2) in the first year of rollout in the United States

BACKGROUND

As the body of evidence on COVID-19 and post-vaccination outcomes continues to expand, this analysis sought to evaluate the public health impact of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine, BNT162b2, during the first year of its rollout in the US.

METHODS

A combined Markov decision tree model compared clinical and economic outcomes of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine (BNT162b2) versus no vaccination in individuals aged ≥12 years. Age-stratified epidemiological, clinical, economic, and humanistic parameters were derived from existing data and published literature. Scenario analysis explored the impact of using lower and upper bounds of parameters on the results. The health benefits were estimated as the number of COVID-19 symptomatic cases, hospitalizations and deaths averted, and Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) saved. The economic benefits were estimated as the amount of healthcare and societal cost savings associated with the vaccine-preventable health outcomes.

RESULTS

It was estimated that, in 2021, the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine (BNT162b2) contributed to averting almost 9 million symptomatic cases, close to 700,000 hospitalizations, and over 110,000 deaths, resulting in an estimated $30.4 billion direct healthcare cost savings, $43.7 billion indirect cost savings related to productivity loss, as well as discounted gains of 1.1 million QALYs. Scenario analyses showed that these results were robust; the use of alternative plausible ranges of parameters did not change the interpretation of the findings.

CONCLUSIONS

The Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine (BNT162b2) contributed to generate substantial public health impact and vaccine-preventable cost savings in the first year of its rollout in the US. The vaccine was estimated to prevent millions of COVID-19 symptomatic cases and thousands of hospitalizations and deaths, and these averted outcomes translated into cost-savings in the billions of US dollars and thousands of QALYs saved. As only direct impacts of vaccination were considered, these estimates may be conservative.

Public health impact of booster vaccination against COVID-19 in the UK during Delta variant dominance in autumn 2021

AIM

To evaluate the public health impact of the UK COVID-19 booster vaccination program in autumn 2021, during a period of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant predominance.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A compartmental Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered model was used to compare age-stratified health outcomes for adult booster vaccination versus no booster vaccination in the UK over a time horizon of September-December 2021, when boosters were introduced in the UK and the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant was predominant. Model input data were sourced from targeted literature reviews and publicly available data. Outcomes were predicted COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC) cases, deaths, and productivity losses averted, and predicted healthcare resources saved. Scenario analyses varied booster coverage, virus infectivity and severity, and time horizon parameters.

RESULTS

Booster vaccination was estimated to have averted approximately 547,000 COVID-19 cases, 36,000 hospitalizations, 147,000 PASC cases, and 4,200 deaths in the UK between September and December 2021. It saved over 316,000 hospital bed-days and prevented the loss of approximately 16.5 million paid and unpaid patient work days. In a scenario of accelerated uptake, the booster rollout would have averted approximately 3,400 additional deaths and 25,500 additional hospitalizations versus the base case. A scenario analysis assuming four-fold greater virus infectivity and lower severity estimated that booster vaccination would have averted over 105,000 deaths and over 41,000 hospitalizations versus the base case. A scenario analysis assuming pediatric primary series vaccination prior to adult booster vaccination estimated that expanding vaccination to children aged ≥5 years would have averted approximately 51,000 additional hospitalizations and 5,400 additional deaths relative to adult booster vaccination only.

LIMITATIONS

The model did not include the wider economic burden of COVID-19, hospital capacity constraints, booster implementation costs, or non-pharmaceutical interventions.

CONCLUSIONS

Booster vaccination during Delta variant predominance reduced the health burden of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK, releasing substantial NHS capacity.

Long-term efficacy data for the recombinant zoster vaccine: impact on public health and cost effectiveness in Germany

The aim of the study was to update previously published public health impact and cost-effectiveness analyses of the recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV), in the German population aged ≥50 years of age (YOA), with the latest vaccine efficacy (VE) estimates against herpes zoster (HZ). The updated estimates are derived from a long-term follow-up study. A previously published multi-cohort Markov model following age cohorts over their lifetime was used. Demographic, epidemiological, cost, and utility data were based on German specific sources. Vaccine coverage was assumed to be 40%, with a second dose compliance of 70%. The estimated VE at time 0 was 98.9% (95% C.I.: 94.0–100%) with an annual waning of 1.5% (95% CI: 0.0–3.4%) for the age group 50–69 YOA. Corresponding values were 95.4% (95% C.I.: 89.7–100%) and 2.3% (95% CI: 0.3–4.4%) for the age group ≥70 YOA. It was estimated that, over the remaining lifetime since vaccination, RZV would prevent approximately 884 thousand (K), 603 K, and 538 K HZ cases in three age cohorts 50–59, 60–69, and ≥70 YOA, respectively. The number needed to vaccinate to prevent one HZ and one postherpetic neuralgia case was 6 and 36 (50–59 YOA cohort), 6 and 34 (60–69 YOA cohort), 10 and 48 (≥70 YOA cohort). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of vaccination ranged from €26 K/quality-adjusted life year (QALY) in 60 YOA to €35 K/QALY in 70 YOA. Due to the higher, sustained, RZV VE, improved public health and cost-effectiveness results were observed compared to previous analyses.

What is the context?

Shingles is a viral infection caused by the reactivation of the chickenpox virus. It causes a painful rash that lasts for several weeks.

The incidence and severity of shingles increase with age. In Germany alone there are approximately 400,000 new cases annually.

Vaccination can help prevent shingles.

Previous studies, based on data collected up to four years post-vaccination, estimated the number of shingles cases prevented.

What is new?

Here, we use data from the same studies followed over a longer-term to update previous analyses in the German population.

We found, based on data up to 8 years following vaccination, that:

○ In adults 50-69 years: the vaccine initially prevents 98.9% of cases, with a reduction of 1.5% each year(for example, after one year, it would prevent 97.4% of cases).

○ In adults over 70 years of age: the vaccine initially prevents 95.4% of cases, with a reduction of 2.3% each year (for example, after one year, it would prevent 93.1% of cases).

○ Vaccination would reduce the number of shingles cases by 0.9 million in a cohort of adults aged 50-59 years, 0.6 million in adults 60-69 years, and 0.5 million in adults older than 70 years, over the remainder of their lifetime.

What is the impact?

The study provides more certainty regarding results as it is based on the most complete/up to date data.

The results showed the potential of Shingrix to prevent shingles while at the same time providing good value for money.

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on routine immunization

The current COVID-19 global pandemic continues to impact healthcare services beyond those directly related to the management of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and disease. We reviewed the published literature to assess the pandemic impact on existing global immunization activities and how the impact may be addressed. Widespread global disruption in routine childhood immunization has impacted a majority of regions and countries, especially in the initial pandemic phases. While data indicate subsequent recovery in immunization rates, a substantial number of vulnerable people remain unvaccinated. The downstream impact may be even greater in resource-limited settings and economically poorer populations, and consequently there are growing concerns around the resurgence of vaccine-preventable diseases, particularly measles. Guidance on how to address immunization deficits are available and continue to evolve, emphasizing the importance of maintaining and restoring routine immunization and necessary mass vaccination campaigns during and after pandemics. In this, collaboration between a broad range of stakeholders (governments, industry, healthcare decision-makers and frontline healthcare professionals) and clear communication and engagement with the public can help achieve these goals.Key messagesThe COVID-19 pandemic has a substantial impact on essential immunization activities.Disruption to mass vaccination campaigns increase risk of VPD resurgence.Catch-up campaigns are necessary to limit existing shortfalls in vaccine uptake.Guidance to mitigate these effects continues to evolve.

Public health impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination: a review of measurement challenges

INTRODUCTION

Modeling analyses have attempted to quantify the global impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) on pneumococcal disease (PD), however these pediatric models face several challenges in obtaining comprehensive impact measurements.

AREAS COVERED

We present several measurement challenges and discuss examples from recently published pediatric modeling evaluations. Challenges include estimating the number of infants fully or partially vaccinated with PCVs, inclusion of indirect effects of vaccination, accounting for various dosing schedules, capturing effect of PCVs on nonspecific, noninvasive PD, and inclusion of adult PCV use.

EXPERT OPINION

The true impact of PCVs has been consistently underestimated in published analyses due to multiple measurement challenges. Nearly 100 million adults are estimated to have received PCV13 over the last decade globally, potentially preventing up to 662 thousand cases of PD. Approximately 4.1 million cases of invasive PD alone may have been averted through indirect protection. Estimates of PCV impact on noninvasive PD remain a challenge due to altered epidemiology. Program switches, incomplete vaccination, and private market uptake among children also confound PD impact estimates. Taken together, the number of averted PD cases from PCV use in the last ten years may be up to three times higher than estimated in previous studies.

Potential public health impact of the adjuvanted recombinant zoster vaccine among people aged 50 years and older in Beijing

Herpes zoster (HZ) is a painful, unilateral rash which occurs upon reactivation of latent varicella zoster virus due to age-related immunity decline or immuno-suppression. In 2019, the recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) was the first vaccine to be approved in China for HZ prevention. This study aimed to estimate the potential public health impact of RZV vaccination, compared with the status quo of no vaccination, in individuals ≥50 years of age (YOA) in Beijing, by adapting the published ZOster ecoNomic Analysis (ZONA) model. We considered 5% and 50% vaccination coverage for the private market (near-term post-launch) and mass vaccination (long-term) settings respectively. In the base-case analysis of both market settings, second-dose compliance was set to 80%. Coverage and second-dose compliance rates were varied under scenario and sensitivity analyses. In the base case, mass vaccination with RZV was estimated to prevent 435,681 HZ cases, 51,558 postherpetic neuralgia (PHN) cases, and 15,703 cases of other HZ-related complications in the overall ≥50 YOA cohort over their remaining lifetime, compared with no vaccination. Under the same base-case scenario, 14,247 hospitalizations and 1,031,387 outpatient visits could be avoided. The 50-59 YOA cohort had the highest contributions to the overall reduction in HZ cases, its complications and related healthcare resource utilization. Results were robust under numerous scenario and sensitivity analyses. This analysis demonstrates the potential of RZV vaccination to substantially reduce the public health burden of HZ among individuals ≥50 YOA, and may inform appropriate vaccination strategies for HZ prevention, particularly in urban settings within China.

Cost Utility of Switching From Trivalent to Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccine in Turkey

OBJECTIVES

Trivalent influenza vaccines (TIVs) are widely used but protect against only 1 of the 2 co-circulating influenza B virus lineages. Quadrivalent influenza vaccines (QIVs) include a B strain from each lineage to overcome mismatches. The main objective of this study was to determine the cost-utility and budget impact of switching from vaccination with TIV to QIV in the population recommended for influenza vaccination in Turkey.

METHODS

A static cohort cost-effectiveness model was developed to predict influenza-related costs and outcomes under a QIV versus a TIV program during an influenza season. The model was informed by data from Turkey on influenza strain distribution, influenza-attributable outcomes, and associated costs over the seasons 2010/2011 to 2016/2017. The effectiveness of each strategy was measured through quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and comparisons were based on the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio.

RESULTS

In an average influenza season, the model showed that switching from TIV to QIV would prevent an additional 15 092 cases of influenza, 6311 general practitioner visits, 94 hospitalizations, 13 deaths, and gain 440 QALYs. From the societal perspective, this amounted to total cost savings of international dollars (I$) 1102 710 (US$388 643). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio when using QIV over TIV was I$55 248/QALY gained. Switching to QIV is mostly cost-effective among older adults with I$36 413.38/QALY. Sensitivity analysis showed that vaccine effectiveness, B strain mismatch, and influenza visits highly impact the cost-effectiveness results.

CONCLUSION

Switching from TIV to QIV is likely to be cost-effective in Turkey, yet highly dependent on the severity of the influenza season, B strain epidemiology, and vaccine effectiveness.

Transferring a Community-Based Participatory Research Project to Promote Physical Activity Among Socially Disadvantaged Women-Experiences From 15 Years of BIG

Introduction: Community-based participatory research (CBPR) is an effective approach to health promotion, especially in relation to socially disadvantaged groups. However, the long-term implementation of CPBR-based projects on a broad scale is often challenging, and research regarding the sustainable transfer of participatory research is lacking. This limits the scaling-up and public health impact of CBPR. Therefore, this study examines the mechanisms utilized to transfer and sustain the BIG project, a multifaceted CBPR project aimed at promoting physical activity among women in difficult life situations.

Materials and Methods: Borrowing from the RE-AIM framework, we analyzed project documentation and conducted a reflection workshop to investigate methods of transferring BIG to new sites as well as strategies from researchers to support project implementation and the maintenance of program activities at those sites. Moreover, we analyzed the reasons for discontinuing program activities at some former BIG sites and the costs involved in transferring BIG.

Results: Since its establishment in 2005, BIG was transferred to and implemented at 17 sites. As of the winter of 2019, the program activities were maintained at eight sites. The average duration of sites that continue to offer program activities was more than 9 years. Discontinued sites maintained project activities for an average of 4 years. According to the study findings, the extent of scientific support, the provision of seed funding, and the local project coordinator, the person managing the project at the site, all have a significant impact on the sustainability of the transfer. A patchwork of funding agencies was needed to finance scientific support and seed funding in BIG. The transfer of BIG projects accrued annual costs of approximately EUR20,000 per site; however, long-term project implementation resulted in a decline in the annual transfer costs of BIG.

Discussion and Conclusion: The sustainable transfer of CBPR is challenging but possible, and increased support of research and seed funding can facilitate long-term transfer. Nevertheless, other factors in the implementation setting are beyond scientific control. With scarce financial resources, researchers need to carefully balance the efforts of the sustainability and transfer of CBPR projects. To address this issue, there is a need for further research into the interrelationship of the sustainability and transfer of CBPR projects as well as increased long-term funding.

The costs and benefits of cannabis control policies

As is the case for most drugs, cannabis use has costs and benefits, and so do the policies that attempt to minimize the first and maximize the second. This article summarizes what we know about the harmful effects of recreational cannabis use and the benefits of medical cannabis use under the policy of prohibition that prevailed in developed countries until 2012. It outlines three broad ways in which cannabis prohibition may be relaxed, namely, the depenalization of personal possession and use, the legalization of medical use, and the legalization of adult recreational use. It reviews evidence to date on the impacts of each of these forms of liberalization on the costs and benefits of cannabis use. It makes some plausible conjectures about the future impacts of the commercialization of cannabis using experience from the commercialization of the alcohol, tobacco, and gambling industries. Cannabis policy entails unavoidable trade-offs between competing social values in the face of considerable uncertainty about the effects that more liberal cannabis policies will have on cannabis use and its consequences for better or worse.
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Public health and economic impact of switching from a trivalent to a quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccine in Mexico

Most influenza vaccines in Mexico are trivalent, containing two influenza A strains and a single B strain. Quadrivalent influenza vaccines (QIVs) extend protection by including an additional B strain to cover both co-circulating B lineages. Here, we retrospectively estimated how a switch to QIV in Mexico would have impacted influenza-related health outcomes over the 2010/2011 to 2015/2016 influenza seasons, and prospectively estimated the budget impact of using QIV in Mexico's national immunization program from 2016/2017 to 2020/2021. For the retrospective estimation, we used an age-stratified static model incorporating Mexico-specific input parameters. For the prospective estimation, we used a budget impact model based on retrospective attack rates considering predicted future vaccination coverage. Between 2010/2011 and 2015/2016, a switch to QIV would have prevented 270,596 additional influenza cases, 102,000 general practitioner consultations, 140,062 days of absenteeism, 3,323 hospitalizations, and 312 deaths, saving Mex$214 million (US$10.8 million) in third-party payer costs. In the prospective analysis, a switch to QIV was estimated to prevent an additional 225,497 influenza cases, 85,000 general practitioner consultations, 116,718 days of absenteeism, 2,769 hospitalizations, and 260 deaths, saving Mex$178 million (US$9 million) in third-party payer costs over 5 years. Compared to the trivalent vaccine, the benefit and costs saved with QIV were sensitive to the distribution of influenza A vs. B cases and trivalent vaccine effectiveness against the mismatched B strain. These results suggest switching to QIV in Mexico would benefit healthcare providers and society by preventing influenza cases, morbidity, and deaths, and reducing associated use of medical resources.

The potential public health impact of Herpes Zoster vaccination in the 65 years of age cohort in Italy

Herpes Zoster (HZ) presents a considerable public health burden in Italy among people aged ≥50 years. This study aimed to assess the clinical and economic impact of HZ vaccination in the 65 years of age (YOA) cohort in Italy, by comparing the new Adjuvanted Recombinant Zoster Vaccine (RZV) with the currently available Zoster Vaccine Live (ZVL). A static Markov model was developed to follow all 65 YOA subjects from the year of vaccination over their lifetime by comparing three different HZ vaccination strategies: no vaccination, vaccination with ZVL and vaccination with RZV. In the base-case scenario, three 65 YOA cohorts were assumed to be vaccinated within three years, with a vaccine coverage rate of 20%, 35% and 50% at Year 1, 2 and 3 respectively, as recommended by the National Immunization Plan. The three 65 YOA Italian cohorts accounted altogether for 2,290,340 individuals. Of these, it was assumed that 564,178 subjects could be vaccinated with either RZV or ZVL in three years. The vaccination with RZV could prevent an additional total number of 35,834 HZ and 8,131 postherpetic neuralgia (PHN) cases over ZVL, leading to additional total savings of €12.4 million for the national healthcare and social systems. The introduction of RZV can be expected to have higher impact on the burden of HZ disease in the 65 YOA cohort in Italy. The avoided HZ and PHN cases can lead to an associated reduction in economic burden to the healthcare and social systems.

The Importance of Using Public Health Impact Criteria to Develop Environmental Health Indicators: The Example of the Indoor Environment in New Zealand

Developing environmental health indicators is challenging and applying a conceptual framework and indicator selection criteria may not be sufficient to prioritise potential indicators to monitor. This study developed a new approach for prioritising potential environmental health indicators, using the example of the indoor environment for New Zealand. A three-stage process of scoping, selection, and design was implemented. A set of potential indicators (including 4 exposure indicators and 20 health indicators) were initially identified and evaluated against indicator selection criteria. The health indicators were then further prioritised according to their public health impact and assessed by the five following sub-criteria: number of people affected (based on environmental burden of disease statistics); severity of health impact; whether vulnerable populations were affected and/or large inequalities were apparent; whether the indicator related to multiple environmental exposures; and policy relevance. Eight core indicators were ultimately selected, as follows: living in crowded households, second-hand smoke exposure, maternal smoking at two weeks post-natal, asthma prevalence, asthma hospitalisations, lower respiratory tract infection hospitalisations, meningococcal disease notifications, and sudden unexpected death in infancy (SUDI). Additionally, indicators on living in damp and mouldy housing and children's injuries in the home, were identified as potential indicators, along with attributable burden indicators. Using public health impact criteria and an environmental burden of disease approach was valuable in prioritising and selecting the most important health impacts to monitor, using robust evidence and objective criteria.

Development of adjuvanted recombinant zoster vaccine and its implications for shingles prevention

INTRODUCTION

GSK has developed a two-dose adjuvanted recombinant zoster vaccine (Shingrix, RZV) to protect people aged ≥50 years (50+) against herpes zoster (HZ) and its complications. RZV showed >90% efficacy against HZ, sustained over 4 years of follow-up, in all studied age groups.

AREAS COVERED

This article reviews the scientific rationale underlying the design of RZV; the clinical evidence demonstrating immunogenicity, safety, and efficacy in persons 50+; and the public health implications and cost-effectiveness.

EXPERT COMMENTARY

A decline in varicella zoster virus (VZV) immunity is associated with increased risk of HZ in adults 50+ and immunocompromised individuals. RZV was designed to restore levels of anti-VZV cellular and humoral immunity to prevent VZV reactivation. RZV includes the recombinant gE glycoprotein antigen, and Adjuvant System AS01_B which promotes cellular and antibody responses. In two Phase III studies in subjects aged 50+ and 70+ years, RZV efficacy against HZ compared to placebo was >90% and ≥89% against post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN). RZV is expected to dramatically impact HZ morbidity including its complications, and associated health-care costs. In the US population aged 50+ years, vaccination with RZV can be cost-effective compared to no vaccination and cost-saving compared to the currently available live-attenuated HZ vaccine (Zostavax, Merck).

Assessment of the Public Health Risks and Impact of a Tornado in Funing, China, 23 June 2016: A Retrospective Analysis

(1) Background: Tornadoes are one of the deadliest disasters but their health impacts in China are poorly investigated. This study aimed to assess the public health risks and impact of an EF-4 tornado outbreak in Funing, China; (2) Methods: A retrospective analysis on the characteristics of tornado-related deaths and injuries was conducted based on the database from the Funing's Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and Funing People's Hospital. A change-point time-series analysis of weekly incidence for the period January 2010 to September 2016 was used to identify sensitive infectious diseases to the tornado; (3) Results: The 75 to 84 years old group was at the highest risk of both death (RR = 82.16; 95% CIs = 19.66, 343.33) and injury (RR = 31.80; 95% CI = 17.26, 58.61), and females were at 53% higher risk of death than males (RR = 1.53; 95% CIs = 1.02, 2.29). Of the 337 injuries, 274 injuries (81%) were minor. Most deaths occurred indoors (87%) and the head (74%) was the most frequent site of trauma during the tornado. Five diseases showed downward change-points; (4) Conclusions: The experience of the Funing tornado underscores the relative danger of being indoors during a tornado and is successful in avoiding epidemics post-tornado. Current international safety guidelines need modification when generalized to China.

The Evolution of the Meningitis Vaccine Project

Background. In 2001, the Meningitis Vaccine Project (MVP) was tasked to develop, test, license, and introduce a group A meningococcal (MenA) conjugate vaccine for sub-Saharan Africa. African public health officials emphasized that a vaccine price of less than US$0.50 per dose was necessary to ensure introduction and sustained use of this new vaccine.

Methods. Initially, MVP envisioned partnering with a multinational vaccine manufacturer, but the target price and opportunity costs were problematic and formal negotiations ended in 2002. MVP chose to become a “virtual vaccine company,” and over the next decade managed a network of public–private and public–public partnerships for pharmaceutical development, clinical development, and regulatory submission. MVP supported the transfer of key know-how for the production of group A polysaccharide and a new conjugation method to the Serum Institute of India, Ltd, based in Pune, India. A robust staff structure supported by technical consultants and overseen by advisory groups in Europe and Africa ensured that the MenA conjugate vaccine would meet all international standards.

Results. A robust project structure including a team of technical consultants and 3 advisory groups in Europe and Africa ensured that the MenA conjugate vaccine (PsA-TT, MenAfriVac) was licensed by the Drug Controller General of India and prequalified by the World Health Organization in June 2010. The vaccine was introduced in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger in December 2010.

Conclusions. The development, through a public–private partnership, of a safe, effective, and affordable vaccine for sub-Saharan Africa, PsA-TT, offers a new paradigm for the development of vaccines specifically targeting populations in resource-poor countries.

Use of the Foreign Studies: Transposition of the Results, Prediction of the Therapeutic Effects in the French Population, Modelling of the Public Health Interest

More and more frequently, the health authorities and the French assessment agencies are led to issue Marketing Authorizations (MAs), give opinions on the eligibility for reimbursement of drugs or to draft recommendations for clinical practice based on the results of foreign studies. The results of these studies are more or less difficult to transpose to French practice. These difficulties generate varying degrees of uncertainty concerning the effect to be expected of a drug. A more or less extensive loss of effect is sometimes even predictable. Some of the difficulties in transposition are discussed in this article and proposals for action are made in order to allow one, in the long term, to predict in the most precise manner possible the effects to be expected from a drug in the French population and be able to verify this prediction at an interval from its eligibility for reimbursement.

The public health impact of malaria vaccine RTS,S in malaria endemic Africa: country-specific predictions using 18 month follow-up Phase III data and simulation models

BACKGROUND

The RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine candidate recently completed Phase III trials in 11 African sites. Recommendations for its deployment will partly depend on predictions of public health impact in endemic countries. Previous predictions of these used only limited information on underlying vaccine properties and have not considered country-specific contextual data.

METHODS

Each Phase III trial cohort was simulated explicitly using an ensemble of individual-based stochastic models, and many hypothetical vaccine profiles. The true profile was estimated by Bayesian fitting of these models to the site- and time-specific incidence of clinical malaria in both trial arms over 18 months of follow-up. Health impacts of implementation via two vaccine schedules in 43 endemic sub-Saharan African countries, using country-specific prevalence, access to care, immunisation coverage and demography data, were predicted via weighted averaging over many simulations.

RESULTS

The efficacy against infection of three doses of vaccine was initially approximately 65 % (when immunising 6-12 week old infants) and 80 % (children 5-17 months old), with a 1 year half-life (exponential decay). Either schedule will avert substantial disease, but predicted impact strongly depends on the decay rate of vaccine effects and average transmission intensity.

CONCLUSIONS

For the first time Phase III site- and time-specific data were available to estimate both the underlying profile of RTS,S/AS01 and likely country-specific health impacts. Initial efficacy will probably be high, but decay rapidly. Adding RTS,S to existing control programs, assuming continuation of current levels of malaria exposure and of health system performance, will potentially avert 100-580 malaria deaths and 45,000 to 80,000 clinical episodes per 100,000 fully vaccinated children over an initial 10-year phase.

Challenges in Studying Modifiable Risk Factors for Birth Defects

Conducting research to identify modifiable risk factors for birth defects is difficult for a variety of reasons. While some challenges are familiar to researchers across many disciplines, the confluence of issues affecting birth defects research may not be well understood by those outside of the field. This article describes several methodological challenges to the study of birth defects and ways these challenges might be addressed: (1) ascertainment, definition and classification of birth defects; (2) exposure assessment on modifiable risk factors; (3) analytical challenges related to small numbers and multiple statistical tests; (4) the role of genetics, including the collection of specimens and analysis of genetic data; and (5) challenges in translating research and demonstrating public health impact. Understanding these issues is important for researchers planning studies, reviewers evaluating the scientific merit of results from these studies, and consumers of the research, including fellow researchers, policy makers, health care providers, and families.

Measuring the burden: alcohol's evolving impact

Measuring the impact of alcohol consumption on morbidity and mortality depends on the accurate measurement of alcohol exposure, risk relationships, and outcomes. A variety of complicating factors make it difficult to measure these elements. This article reviews these factors and provides an overview of the articles that make up this special issue on current research examining alcohol's role in the burden of disease. These topics include estimating alcohol consumption as well as alcohol-related morbidity and mortality in various demographic groups, and the burden of alcohol use disorders.

Application of PHEL - 'Public Health Epidemiological Logic' of Public Health Intervention and Public Health Impact

There is a growing tendency where medicalization of public health through mass therapeutics and secondary preventive measures are being substituted for primary preventive activity. Scaled-up mass therapeutic intervention in the community is being confused with public health intervention. The objective of this paper is to provide a broad public health and epidemiological criteria for public health intervention and public health impact.

Addressing core challenges for the next generation of type 2 translation research and systems: the translation science to population impact (TSci Impact) framework

Evidence-based preventive interventions developed over the past two decades represent great potential for enhancing public health and well-being. Research confirming the limited extent to which these interventions have been broadly and effectively implemented, however, indicates much progress is needed to achieve population-level impact. In part, progress requires Type 2 translation research that investigates the complex processes and systems through which evidence-based interventions are adopted, implemented, and sustained on a large scale, with a strong orientation toward devising empirically-driven strategies for increasing their population impact. In this article, we address two core challenges to the advancement of T2 translation research: (1) building infrastructure and capacity to support systems-oriented scaling up of evidence-based interventions, with well-integrated practice-oriented T2 research, and (2) developing an agenda and improving research methods for advancing T2 translation science. We also summarize a heuristic "Translation Science to Population Impact (TSci Impact) Framework." It articulates key considerations in addressing the core challenges, with three components that represent: (1) four phases of translation functions to be investigated (pre-adoption, adoption, implementation, and sustainability); (2) the multiple contexts in which translation occurs, ranging from community to national levels; and (3) necessary practice and research infrastructure supports. Discussion of the framework addresses the critical roles of practitioner-scientist partnerships and networks, governmental agencies and policies at all levels, plus financing partnerships and structures, all required for both infrastructure development and advances in the science. The article concludes with two sets of recommended action steps that could provide impetus for advancing the next generation of T2 translation science and, in turn, potentially enhance the health and well-being of subsequent generations of youth and families.

Implementation science and its application to population health

Implementation science studies the use of strategies to adapt and use evidence-based interventions in targeted settings (e.g., schools, workplaces, health care facilities, public health departments) to sustain improvements to population health. This nascent field of research is in the early stages of developing theories of implementation and evaluating the properties of measures. Stakeholder engagement, effectiveness studies, research synthesis, and mathematical modeling are some of the methods used by implementation scientists to identify strategies to embed evidence-based interventions in clinical and public health programs. However, for implementation science to reach its full potential to improve population health the existing paradigm for how scientists create evidence, prioritize publications, and synthesize research needs to shift toward greater stakeholder input and improved reporting on external validity. This shift will improve the relevance of the research that is produced and provide information that will help guide decision makers in their selection of research-tested interventions.

Multidrug resistance and plasmid patterns of Escherichia coli O157 and other E. coli Isolated from diarrhoeal stools and surface waters from some selected sources in Zaria, Nigeria

We have assessed the prevalence of Escherichia coli O157 in diarrhoeal patients and surface waters from some selected sources in Zaria (Nigeria), evaluating the antibiotic susceptibility and plasmid profiles of 184 E. coli isolates, obtained from 228 water samples and 112 diarrhoeal stool specimens (collected from children aged <15 years), using standard methods. The detection rate of E. coli O157 in surface waters was 2.2% and its prevalence in children with diarrhoea was 5.4%. The most active antibiotics were gentamicin, chloramphenicol and fluoroquinolones. Seventy-nine (42.9%) of 184 E. coli isolates were resistant to four or more antibiotics. Multidrug resistance (MDR) was higher amongst aquatic isolates than the clinical isolates. Out of 35 MDR isolates (20 of which were O157 strains), 22 (62.9%) harboured plasmids all of which were no less than 2.1 kb in size. Amongst the 20 E. coli O157 strains, only seven (35.0%) contained multiple plasmids. An aquatic O157 isolate containing two plasmids was resistant to seven drugs, including ampicillin, cefuroxime, ciprofloxacin, cotrimoxazole, nalidixic acid, nitrofurantoin and tetracycline. Loss of plasmid correlated with loss of resistance to antibiotics in cured (mutant) strains selected in tetracycline (50 μg/mL)-nutrient agar plates. Our findings revealed that plasmids were prevalent in both the aquatic and clinical isolates, and suggest that the observed MDR is plasmid-mediated. The occurrence of plasmid-mediated multidrug resistant E. coli O157 in surface waters used as sources for drinking, recreation and fresh produce irrigation heightens public health concern.

Relative Added Value: What are the Tools to Evalue it?

The relative added value of a drug is currently evaluated in France by the Transparency Commission (TC) of the National Health Authority (HAS), by assigning a level of Improvement in Actual Benefit (IAB). IAB is based on two parameters, efficacy and safety of the product, in a defined target population, either as compared to one or more other drugs with similar indications, or within therapeutic strategy. The items used for evaluation, including the level of clinical effect, the relevance of the comparator, the choice of comparison criteria and the methodology used (indirect comparison, non-inferiority studies, etc.), have been reviewed by the working group in Giens with regard to an analysis of the opinion on TC issued between 2004 and 2007 in several therapeutic areas. First of all, this attempt at rationalisation based on the criteria used to assess the relative added value demonstrated the rareness of direct comparative data, and was followed by a discussion on the possible broadening of the evaluation criteria. The group discussed taking into account the Public Health Impact (PHI), which has now been incorporated into the assessment of Actual Benefit (AB). The group believes that PHI seems to be more related to the notion of IAB than to that of AB. Indeed, it is frequently the relative added value of a new drug that produces an impact in public health. Conversely, considering the comparative evaluation criteria of PHI, which are not systematically taken into account in IMSR (such as improvement in the health of the population, meeting a public health need or impact on the healthcare system), PHI could legitimately be included in the assessment of the relative added value of a drug. Other parameters such as compliance or impact on professional practice have been considered. Thus, the notion of relative added value, evaluated at initial registration, could be based on an expected improvement in medical service. The notion of expected medical service leads to the requirement of producing additional data in real life (post-registration studies), which would support the definitive notion of improvement in actual benefit at the time of renewed registration, while taking into account the place occupied by the drug in the therapeutic strategy.